fountainguy97

RGEM still mixing for the east but technically every so slightly more cold push. Tiny tiny shift lol

5 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

Would you mind posting a picture of this?  I'd like to start monitoring it.  Thank you for the insight!

Vertical velocity at the 700mb will show you the clearest picture of the best dynamics and lift (which is always the right entrance region) The nam has been trending massively toward other models

Nam cut the distance in half toward the other models. As a result temp profile will be better for most. Still not all the way but a big jump.

Just now, Stovepipe said:

0z NAM looking significantly better for east TN, whew.

Much better cold push so far!1

For those on the Eastern side worried abt  temps... the 00z hrrr and 18z RGEM are very similar as far as precip alignment and placement. But look at that cold push on the hrrr. Much much better. Even keeps my lonesome self below 32. The rgem seems to just be amping hard and eroding that boundary.  But the hrrr is proof there is a solution that delivers even for extreme ETN.

9 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

I’m about to stick a fork in East TN. It’s been horrible trends the last 24 hrs. I feel we will be lucky to see 2” in the upper valley. Hopefully we get a good system come through in Feb. We are ridiculously overdue a good snow.

Not at all. Greene county looks good. At worst a couple hours of freezing drizzle. 
 

if anyone should stick a fork in it it's me haha. This is the one time me being tucked in the mountains in Unicoi county is a bad thing. Even then I'll see some frozen which is a win. You guys further east in the valley haven't had a setup this good since I moved here which has been 4 winters. Reel it in!!

going to be quite a bit more zr this run.
 

Big warm air push into ETN end of hrrr. 
 

Bring back the low teens and snow haha 

8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Serious question about the DGZ… obviously I know what it is but what is the depth of it? Is it a shallow layer in the atmosphere or does it continue up into the atmosphere? I guess what I’m asking is… the lack of snow in the mountains, is there ever a situation where Mt Leconte could be above the moisture feed?


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Mountain counties are warm nosed. Rain/freezing rain. On rgem atleast. It's not a qpf problem or anything. It's temps.

In fact, the rgem warm noses a larger portion of ETN this 12z all the way through Johnson city.

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

For TRI, we are likely going to be battling this all the way to "go time."  It is plausible that we could end up on the SE side of the snow axis or NW side of the snow axis or right in the middle.  Why?  The snow axis is more narrow in our part of the state.  Any change in trajectory changes things a lot here due to the angle of that axis and the narrowing band.

Yep it's a fine line. Not feeling good for me. I'm basically as far east as you can get haha this is one of the times the mountains won't help me. Hope I can at least get an inch just so I'm not a full shutout. 
 

Hope you guys and the valley can cash in! Seems like Knoxville and south have been left out a lot in recent winters.

I love this precip map on COD. 06zfirst

NAM at 42 is still going to be north but it has ticked SE and weaker with precip.

The NAM loves to amp stuff too hard in the mid-long range. It's pretty bad outside 48hrs. RGEM can do it too on occasion but is typically more reliable.

Globals have definitely ticked flatter since 12z yesterday. I full expect the NAM to cave at some point. RGEM is a beauty and is right in line with most overnight globals

All of the energy will be coming onshore by 00z tonight so I'll be treating 00z as the first run to take seriously for amounts and locations.

Overall the 00z models have shifted away from the larger overrunning shield and to a much more focused and thin overrunning band. In general most of them did sag southward some. 
 

00z really trended away from the widespread TN event and to a more focused band of snow. 
 

Probably see alot of wobble back and forth with the location of the boundary and overrunning. It's a very touchy system. This one will be stressful up until go time.

4 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

I'm resigned to the fact that Chattanooga is mostly cursed in these setups. I honestly can't remember a good statewide Tennessee snow where Chattanooga managed more than an inch or so. It's tough watching areas within 30-50 miles of our area getting plastered, and we are hoping to manage a cartop dusting up to 1". It also happens here often when Georgia gets a good 3-6" snow, and we are just too far north by 30 miles or so and get nothing. That's just the way it is around here.

Even the system rolling in on Monday looks to have most of our qpf used up as a cold rain before switching over, if it does at all.

I'm still pulling for everyone else to get a good thumping and some miracle 50 mile jog south of colder air and decent qpf for our area. We need a surprise.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk
 

Feel your pain with this one. I'll be in the same boat. 30hours of light drizzle while 30miles west it's 8" of powder.  
 

we hug the RGEM until the end! Haha still hope for us far eastern folks!

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

I had no idea I followed you on twitter


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What's your Twitter handle?

10 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

I keep noticing Greene and cocke counties keep getting the short end of the stick on these runs.  Possible downsloping issues or what?  Would certainly be strange for there to be more snow points south and west of us to get several inches and then a sharp cutoff but stranger things have happened 

The icon is rain for border counties including your area. The NAM just has no precip for us. And the RGEM also has rain for border counties. 

Too amp'ed. My county is even worse. Unfortunately it's a very likely outcome with every single model showing that. Still some time to move around though.

The 18z NAM is starting the party off right with a nice NW trend lol. Here we go.

Here you go. Hard to see but leaves and small debris are ripping past. This is my new record for wind! Previous was 74mph during hurricane Irene in Eastern, NC. Station recorded 83 while I was recording.

https://youtu.be/2VDa4dIA5K8?si=qpz6t4Y2hsRtIXtM

1 hour ago, Math/Met said:

That's the best area. I usually go to the church parking lot that is next to the Camp Creek Memorial. It is next to the school. I like that spot because it gets me away from trees and power lines.

Good call on the power lines lol. I had just drove down this road to get into camp creek.

ill splice my vids together and put it on YouTube this evening. 

Back home we have trees down everywhere in Erwin. Never seen anything like this here. Wind was funneled perfectly down Rock Creek Rd and just blasted us. 

38 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

That's the best area. I usually go to the church parking lot that is next to the Camp Creek Memorial. It is next to the school. I like that spot because it gets me away from trees and power lines.

Definitely gusting into hurricane range. Tough to stand. It's cold. The rain hurts lol

5 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

Keep us posted. Have you been there before?

I have been to camp creek but not for wind event. I was going to head to the elementary school.

Wind is nearing extreme here. Trees down. Power out. I'm heading to camp creek which is gusting toward 90! Only 40min drive.

crappy run for me on gfs. That over-running pivots north which is my fear for NETN. but man it crushes the rest of the state!