fountainguy97

GEFS taking a big jump overnight with our NW event.

wow big changes on the 06z gfs. 3-4 isobar closed ULL now.

Dig this a few hundred south and it's a multi-day NW snow event with temps in the low 20s

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 6z GEFS has a coastal storm signal around the 28/29th.  Zero idea if it will be cold enough or if placement will be decent, but the weak low placement is there.   There is also a stronger signal after 30th.

 

Yeah watching that secondary system swinging through next Friday closely. I'm not sure the ceiling is very high because it's moving quickly and probably fires a low too late off the coast. But definitely another chance of a bowling ball ULL NW event. 12z gefs almost every member showing some snow for next week. Which is surprisingly high confidence for a NW driven event.

i think the real chance for a "big dog" comes shortly after during the 2nd-6th. Nice arctic press on the ensembles first week of January. Suppression is what we like to see at this stage!
 

I don't post a lot about my thoughts for seasonal guidance but I'll let it fly. 
 

I feel pretty good about the transition into the new year. Almost every major snow I can remember from my days in Eastern NC came during a pattern transition. Whether into a good one or into a poor one. It seems a lot of those transitions have big exclamation points (storms) on them to start and end. 
 

We are in a 2 week transitory pattern before the new regime takes hold last few days of this year into January. This may be a semi-brief wintry spell as we may have a brief warmup after the first week of January before the real cold arrives later in the month. But regardless we should have a window of real opportunity. 

look at the absolute chaos on the Gfs starting next week.

I think this sorts out for a blockbuster storm toward new year. This doesn't mean blockbuster in the way of snow for our specific backyards but for someone I'd be surprised if we make it out without an event. 

Look at the GEFS. Some downright crazy solutions on it around the new year. 

I don't think this is a head fake because the ULL that kicks this transition off is actually nearly onshore already before it spins around in the Central US for a week. So this isn't fantasy land. This transition begins happening over the next couple days. As the ULL exits I'd look for a piece to rotate around and bring the storm chance around New Year. 

again this feels different to me (a real change and not a head fake) because our pattern flipper ULL is already on stage. 
 

we probably do warm up after this into mid-January. Hopefully we can score over new years!
 

carry on 

Yeah, don't let me start another thread this winter the very next run started trending worse lol 

Thread is open for business!

Well let's clear up the long range thread and chase some flakes!  High res suite at 18z looks good for the typical NW flow areas.  I fully expect to see some flakes break containment across the valley.

this is unlikely but the HRRR has a full on meso-low snow squall rolling through.

RGEM and 12k NAM at 12z both look great for the typical NW areas. 24+ hrs of nw snow. 
 

3km has a dry bias long range I've noticed. Wouldn't put stock into it for another 36hrs

The NAM has made a huge shift at 00z in regards to the northern wave behind this system. An absolute beast of a NW event. This piece of energy is not even onshore yet.

Well this storm has a long way to go. The euro and UK tonight really dig the second wave of energy and deliver a pretty potent NW event. A lot of eps support too and the gfs jumped that way at 00z just didn't dig it as much.

this is really the solution that can deliver any frozen precip with this system. And it will likely be changing until a few hours before the event. Long few days of watching ahead

Man what a storm. Going to be an awesome system to watch. It does pain this snowlovers heart to see it rain though haha.

5 hours ago, Bigbald said:

My god what a storm track for east Tennessee on 18z.  4 days of solid snow, this easily could have been one for ages.  

I Was going to come here and say this exact thing. Precip over us for 84hrs on 00z gfs. 2.5-3" of rainfall.  Would have been one of those winter storms you hear talked about for decades. Instead we get 30s and rain haha still good for our area though. 

models trending flatter today with the chance tonight. No surprise. 
 

Looking to the next system and man..what a track.. this one will be painful if we get 2" of rain in the mid-30s.

Now hang on.. all of a sudden the RGEM/NAM/and HRRR smoke the border counties with a few hours of heavy paste...

RGEM brings the hammer down. Nice to look at. Won't be reality most likely.

Idk abt this one. No cold air supply anywhere to be found. 

Tons of model support for a storm but nearly 0 support for any snow. 1-2 eps members and 1 gets member. We can fix tracks but it's nearly impossible to fix lack of cold source.

going to need the ULL to sit in JUST the right spot to "make its own cold" and I've seen those situations bust 9/10 times haha.

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The 12z nam taketh away what the 06z giveth. The RGEM is much more consistent but generally much lighter than the best of the NAM runs, which are bouncing from 2-4+ inches to nothing much at all outside the highest peaks, from run to run.

I've seen this story too many times. Backend setups fail 99/100 times. I'd discount anything other than the NW flow after the main precip moves through. Just how these things go

Wow the NAM quite literally takes me from 67 to mid 20s in 12 hrs. Lightning to heavy snow.  Sunday may be an absurd weather day if that takes place.

Hmm... this humpback look is how we score with this.

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro was pretty close to something good for eastern ares.

Yeah this weekend feels so close but so far. Need that low reformation to happen a bit further south. Some of the gefs members show some action. Touchy system. I don't think we see much in the end because the 500mb energy is pretty far north.

There is a single EPS member that dumps 20+ inches over Erwin with the storm mid-next week. Anyone have access to snow maps for it?

3300' abt 4 miles from my house. Beauty Spot. 

Nice burst of convective graupel this morning. Quickly coated grass and mulch.  This event was really less of NW flow and just more of convective showers. I never really got more than 2-3 hrs of true NW flow winds. And even then it was mostly dry.

Our clipper for next week just won't go away.  Ceiling is probably pretty low because it's positive tilt but if we can get it closed off could really be a nice little start to December. 

Some pretty surprising confidence in models for some NW action on the back side of the next big system December 6-8th.  GFS has a secondary low take a clipper-like path.
 

this EPS blend is showing you where precip is falling below 33 degrees or likely snow. (Brown) pretty much every model and ensemble member has some NW snow occurring at this time frame. 
 

let's see if we trend to a more significant event or away from one in the next few days.