fountainguy97

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks super similar to 6z...just slower.  That slow down "could" produce a more westward component to the trajectory if that trend continues.  Slower usually results in westward down the line.

Yeah a miss to the east BUT it did come west abt 25miles. Moisture just still doesn't make it over. 

12z CMC coming in identical to NAM. GFS continues to be the outlier.

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Can u see past 66h?

no. 69hrs.  its maybe 25miles further west than last run.  I guess better than nothing haha

It is further east by 100 miles over any model from 00z to 12z 

12z maybe a TOUCH better. But its still by far the most progressive model compared to any of them.

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

You all who have been watching this closely for a couple of days...should be able to spot trends early as it is under 84 hours now.

Yeah trends have really turned into ticks.  GFS is the only model further east. We will see where it goes here. 

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

Not saying this one will happen, but our best snowstorms have occurred during the day when temps from 48-72 hours out were projected to be in the low 40's and what ended up happening was 33 and heavy snow.  Also in very similar scenarios to this I have witnessed downsloping be a non-factor even though the flow on radar is directly over the mountains from SE to NW.   Just a FWIW as we try and figure out if this potential system has legs.

 

I think the saving grace with this is the fact we "should" have amounts already on the ground by sun-up. There are a lot of factors to limit accums but if we can manage a good coating before sunrise we should be ok. 

Wet ground, warm temps, sun. Thats a lot of things cutting into totals. I'd cut Kuchera in half probably.

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Also, downsloping along the western foothills is definitely a concern if cold air is not in place and is being manufactured.  The 12z NAM shows that downsloping effect quite well.  W NC is cold and E TN is in the mid 40s.  Need this to hit at night.  What is the timing on this?  I haven't even looked.  

Pretty much all models have a rain to snow event for us. starts 3amish Sunday morning and peaking around sunrise. 

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is an exceptionally great set-up if legit...at range gives me pause.  That is how you get a big winter storm.  The likelihood of somebody in the SE getting hammered is growing.

Man this thing is rolling. Literally lol. 12z

12z suite:  the NAM, RGEM, and ICON are all holding strong to the earlier cutoff idea. (good)  

I will update this as we go along. Early consensus does place us squarely in the "center of the cone" per Carver's wishes. Still lots of game time left.

2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Do we want the storm to become stronger to pull more west? What is the mechanism that keeps it towards TN and not too far east? 

the timing of it closing off is the main factor.  The faster it closes off (stronger quicker) = a further west track.  The 06z gfs was more pr0gressive and weaker with the ULL.  It closed off much later.  As a result, the surface low was further west.  ICON, CMC, EURO, and now the 12z NAM are all much stronger with a quicker close off which slows the storm down and allows it to pivot inland.

These ULL systems are notorious for being a pain. Best to just sit back and see how this looks inside 48hrs. 
 

icon, cmc, euro at 6z are all lock step together with a East TN, App Spine hit. 
 

gfs and GEFS shifted east nearly 100miles at 06z to west NC. 
 

12z should be a good benchmark as we are fully sampled BUT I've seen these get more uncertain at this range instead of more concrete. 
 

Unfortunately cut even kuchera in atleast half due to wet ground, daytime timing, and temps above 32.  This is one of those "6" fell but only 2" stuck" type of deals.

Impressive mean on 18z eps but GEFS is still spread. Wary of the super amped gfs for now. 
 

anyone have individuals for 18z?

The valley is nuked.o

Some great trends at 12z for some snow across the Southeast. Not so much our neck of the woods but the crew over in the Carolinas are absolutely snow starved haha. Maybe they can reel one in. 

The major checkpoint for me for a threat is getting the energy onshore over the US. Our energy will be partially onshore by 00z tonight and fully onshore by 12z runs tomorrow.  

Typically the 24hr period leading up to full onshore sampling is when we see the "snap" to a more uniform idea on modeling.  That period starts in just a few hours.  We should know rather soon if this is legit.

Euro took another step for more separation at 06z this morning.  Icon is heavily separated and the UK is a nice mountain snow like the GFS.   This has more support than just the GFS model.  

42 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

@Carvers Gap might be right about 2013. I can’t remember exactly what year but it was definitely before the 2013/14 winter because thats when I bought my Jeep and I didn’t have it for this event. Anyway…. I remember we were kinda expecting a rain to snow but no one knew how much. It changed over around 12:30-1 PM and it snowed about 4-5” in 2 hours right over Knoxville. They let us go home at 3pm from work. Normally a 30min drive took me 3 1/2 hours. The roads in Knoxville was a compacted slop but pretty slick. When I got to Black Oak Ridge between Ft City and Halls, the slop had frozen and even 4x4’s where struggling. This other event didn’t really do much in the valley but I remember another ULL got the mountains, NC and SC pretty good. The reason I remember it is because it hit in later October, first of November when Tennessee was playing at South Carolina. Josh Dobbs was a sophomore I believe. The mountains did really well but even Columbia SC picked up 3-5” that Saturday. @Carvers Gap probably remembers the year.


.

Oct31-nov1 2014. Different trajectory but same idea. Bowling ball with extremely marginal temps. Probably was a paste bomb. 

probably more robust than this will be.

Man what a borderline event in the 6z gfs.  These "make its own cold" setups are nearly impossible to pull off.

the gfs has been accelerating the northern piece which has allowed our southern to cutoff. Not much support but UK, Icon have a bowling ball. And the euro shifted that way at 0z.

Some monumental changes with the 18z gfs regarding this weekend. 
 

the icon also has the bowling ball and it's even further south. This type of scenario could work for a much larger area than typical NW flow.  

Man. Another mostly dry and cool frontal passage in the works on the heels of the mid-week system. 

Just can't get anything to line up this winter. Everything is either too far west or in this case too far east.  

With winter on the way out I will be looking forward to these warmer days ahead! 

Good bit of consistency today for the 180-200hr event. Likely another backside NW event setup... wish we could get one of these to our south before spring.

35 here. An occasional wet flake mixing in now. Oh so close to a paste bomb. 

Low res NAM for the win. Am I desperate? Maybe. Will it happen nope. 

it pulls some cold air down the back spine of the Apps. Interesting evolution. Probably WAY overdone. 

probaly a resolution issue. 3km is actually great for areas above 3000'. But need some colder air for lower regions. 

Man that squall east of Nashville looks awesome.

5 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

So we are still looking at general trends here, none of this set in stone until at least early next week 

Yeah I've been reluctant to bite for much long range chatter this winter but the 12z GEFS has a decent cluster of similar solutions. creeping inside 200hrs.  Looks like this is a legit storm signal. Probably for points North and west of the vast majority of TN.
 

we can be cautiously hopeful with this GEFS mean. Emphasis on cautious lol

hrrr looking good for some streaky snow totals over the next two days.  Bullseye over Unicoi with 5" IMBY. I'll take it haha