fountainguy97

Hrrr goes nuclear with the wind event Tuesday morning. Quite the wind event shaping up. Thankfully rain quickly after.

That's definitely some aurora! This is from my newly installed weather cam tonight.

Agree with all of you this AM. We ( especially @Carvers Gap) have been all over the somewhat typical nino progression this winter. 
 

I am out of my depth here but I've seen a lot of talk regarding this Nino and not seeing its full strength realized. The SSTs are strong maybe even super but the atmosphere may behave more like a moderate Nino this winter which I think would be fantastic for us. I'm just spitting out what I've seen several pro's mention. And it certainly seems to be the case so far with the dry spell recently.

Unfortunately, we may have to punt into Jan-Mar, but realistically that gives us the best odds for snow even if I'm impatient and want it now lol.  I do expect to see atleast a couple mountain events in December. 
 

As far as November snow.. yeah it's not happening. GFS is wall to wall torch more or less. Again probably a good thing longer term.

Drought really taking hold. 
not much of interest on models. So I guess seeing how red this map gets is about the most interesting thing we have to watch.

AN still holding on for the month so far. Likely going to bleed further AN.  Big cold shot coming but it may be mostly in November. Chances pretty high for a AN October albeit just barely.

Precip is still a problem. Maybe a quick .5-1inch for areas tmrw morning. 

Hmm. Good chance of high mountain snow early next week. Soundingnis for my location at 2000 ft. Very close!

No end in sight. Impressively dry month and a half.

Man so close. As Carver said probably going to stay way up at 5000+ but would love to see some flakes flying here!

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thank you. As I said, I prefer BN temps in all seasons. That’s enough reason for me to root for this month as a whole to average BN in the SE. However, there’s the additional reason that I wrote about in the post you linked, an apparent partial correlation of a BN SE Oct and a BN SE subsequent winter during El Niño. So, whereas having a BN Oct doesn’t of course come close to guaranteeing a BN winter, it appears to mean an increased chance vs if Oct isn’t BN. The models are continuing to signal that the chance for a BN Oct is a very realistic and increasing possibility as of now. For example, the EPS and weeklies have had a cooling trend for week 2 over recent days.

 Here is the average for Octobers preceding some of the coldest SE US El Niño winters:

 

Gfs sees you and raises you.

18 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

-pdo makes sense with trough out west, especially start of winter. Million dollar question is how long trough out west lasts? Imo, one would want to see the niño become more central based moving forward to have a back loaded winter, which is typical of niños. One would also think with the stronger niño that would force pdo less negative. Lots to iron out

This lines up with most of my thinking. We start mild and end cold. This doesn't mean a complete toss until February but I think we will be dominated by a -PNA early on.  I think the ENSO progression you mention (moving central) appears to be likely but this won't be a full blown Modoki. Just transitioning to basin-wide.  

The only fly is the PDO. I doubt we see it flip to positive. Does it completely overrun the Nino or does it just offset the strong Nino? That's the question. 

The Euro seasonal show this progression extremely well. And honestly we take our chances with the best pattern occurring in the best months of winter. I just hope December isn't a complete washout.
 

Here is my average snowfall per month over the last 4 La nina winters:

Nov 1.15
Dec 1.7
Jan 4.025
Feb 5.2
Mar .9

I'll take the bait and hope February has the best pattern! 

Well some great model agreement for a big trough this weekend. Looks like a chance of widespread upper 30s for a large portion of TN and our first big taste of fall temps. 
 

I have to say I've been loving the dry and warmth we have had. These upper 70s  with low dews are stellar.

Interesting,  I'm up to 53.40" on the year which is already the highest annual total I have ever recorded here. (Only 2021-23)

Only .5 in the last 12 days but I'm at 3.60" this month.  And a whopping 12.25" last month. Technically the border counties are doing ok in regards to precip.
 

everyone for the most part east of the Mississippi has had a very slow September. Crazy to think that this includes Ophelia and NC is still mostly BN. You can see the NE TN border with AN in September though.

I feel like we usually have a 4-6week period of dead weather in early fall. Too early for fronts to make it all the way through but too cool for Tstorms and no tropics.  

Ben Noll has some epic stuff. 
 

Jan-Feb look absolutely rocking along with the basin wide El-Nino. Hard not to like this.

note the strong -PDO. Does it play the grinch this winter? 

All in all I'd expect the back half of winter to be pretty lively. Hopefully we get some action in the front half. I don't want to wait 5 more months for February to roll around haha.

I've seen ALOT of different sources point to a classic Miller A swath of + snowfall anomalies across the SE and Mid Atlantic recently.

looks like back loaded winter is heavily favored as well. 
 

sources: trackersacker twitter

Brian Brettschneider twitter

ben noll twitter

Looks like this cold front mid-week next week and Lee will hook up and bring fall crashing our way. This will be a permanent step down in temps and our first big taste of fall.
 

Looks like a warm week in the 80s and a few touches of 90 here and there but I see a lot of greens (50s) on the gfs on tidbits going forward!

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Checked on the weekly forecasts. ECMWF CFS GEFS 

Paying for our mild summer with an endless summer. After the brief relief thanks to this tropical system gfs goes torch again. Of course it's wildly too hot normally.

12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Looks like upper 70’s to low 80’s most of next week around Knoxville. [mention=499]John1122[/mention] might get into the upper 40’s one morning.


.

Yeah GFS brings that tropical storm through which would certainly help us out. It's on the extreme western edge of guidance though so not very likely at the moment. 

Man the gfs really wants to keep the heat around for another 10-14 days. I'm not surprised but I was hoping to see some fall mornings.

4 hours ago, *Flash* said:

This guy needs to update his AMO page but it seems like the overall AMO trend is decreasing. Still net '+' but coming down.  It's been going back and forth in bi-decadal stretches since the turn of the 20th century.

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_amo_index.php

Yeah these decadal sequences are tough to really apply just because of the sheer length of time between pattern changes.  The current massive -PDO has surely been stubborn and may not flip at all.
 

AMO is such a long pattern sequence it's tough to really get a grasp on. I haven't been alive in a -AMO regime. And I think it's not irrelevant to consider in this climate IF we will get a -AMO signal in the near future. Or maybe decades.
 

I don't think we struggle with precip this winter. I'm more worried about too much of a good thing with the El Niño. Especially if we don't transition to more of a 3.4 focused Nino. We may blow right through any blocking we manage to get.

there has been some cooling going on in the PDO region. Maybe we see it transport across the Pacific this fall.

78/62 here today. Absolutely perfect. Enjoying it before this heat wave of death hits.

Seeing my friends back in Eastern NC hit 90 at 9am sure has me thankful for the mountains today. 

On 8/10/2023 at 2:54 PM, John1122 said:

Carver's spoke of creating an early winter spec thread recently, and after another day in the 70s in August, I figured why not get the ball rolling. This for general long term talk about the potential winter patterns, etc. 

 

Right now, the EPO has went negative, it's at -12, and is in the East descending phase.  In 2021-22 it fell into the negative in May and stayed deeply negative until the following May. So it should descend throughout winter. 

Below, average pressure anomalies over NH when the QBO is negative. Higher in the PNA/NAO region, lower over the south and eastern U.S. (These maps may initially appear confusing, since they greens are positive numbers. It just means that the they are higher by those margins over those areas or lower by those margins over those areas when there isn't a -QBO in place. Just keep in mind green = lower pressure and cooler temps during -QBO years) 

 

 

There tends to be higher pressure over the North Pole during a -QBO, which results in a weaker jet stream/polar vortex on average.

 

During an El Nino/-QBO combination our forum region is slightly BN for temps DJF and pressures are quite a bit lower across the Southeast (our storm track). The map doesn't look unlike this for temps, but BN for Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina and up the east coast is more prominent than the CPC map here. Especially over Texas.

 

With a descending QBO and solar activity rising toward peak the chances of blocking and a disrupted PV are increased.  
 

along with the active southern jet with the El Niño I'll take those chances any day. The only fly in the ointment is we need the El Niño to shift toward a more basin wide event vs eastern based. Models are predicting that so let's hope they are correct.  
 

Definitely some good signs heading into fall!

4.52" here on the day. Easily the highest 24hr total here going back to July 2019 on my records. 
5 hrs after rain we still have creeks flooding. I've never really seen the ditch along my property carry much water but it sounds like a river tonight.