Kevin Reilly

I will take a stab at it. Feb 2nd to 4th period I will say 18z shows rain to snow 2-4" a lull then a follow up wave dumps 8-16" with temps falling into the 20's along with winds 30-40 mph with windchills single digits to below zero.

Media Delaware County 42 temp was 37 at 4:15 pm... zero sleet or snow today, so far 0.20" of rain has fallen currently winds picking up noticeably from the east 15-25 mph temps on the way up fast with light drizzle.

I hear you Ralph I can see the warm air flooding up the coast and the front being just west of the I-95 Corridor instead.... But in all honesty sometimes this is how we can get the big ones! Stalled boundary overunning 5-10" then the follow up caboose wave causing another 6-12". We shall see I need to see this set up still on the table by this weekend before I get really excited. Knowing our luck this is a cold from rain to some light wet snow then the cold air comes rushing in and that follow up wave is 150-200 miles further east due to a progressive pattern with a flattened SER. Oh I guess I just named another way to fail?

driving down 202 King of Prussia 20 minutes ago had some moderate sleet. Here in Media now all liquid 40 degrees.

lol it will lift straight northbound and out

Remember February 11th, 1983!

Cuba more like it

Hmmm must be a warm tongue of air just above the surface coming off the Atlantic another way to fail. The hits keep coming.

Media Delaware County 37 Cloudy dewpoint 26 we did have some snow pellets so picked up a trace of snow today Yay!!

Well, Doug's ideas of what this winter are going to be like are spot on basically to date. Doug was up here in Philadelphia I liked him, and he is way better than anyone we have up here on NBC now. Now Doug's numbers in regard to snow may be off but at least his outlook up in my neck of the woods in southern PA indicates 4-10" of snow thus far we have a trace, so I guess there is hope not to shit the blinds still. So far up here in southern PA we are 10.3 degrees above normal in January and right to this date the Winter of 2022-2023 is ranked the 2nd warmest on record with an average temperature of 44.6 degrees right behind the warmest winter on record in 1932 of 46.4 degrees. I am guessing that if we did not get that cold snap around Christmas, we would be looking at the warmest winter on record but as Doug said February and March could be very warm, so we aren't done yet.

Media Delaware County 36 dewpoint 26 Cloudy with sprinkles and light drizzle. I got giddy and saw the radar had a little stripe of white on it over my area. I go outside and it's just sprinkles and drizzle we can't even do this right!!

Media Delaware County 42f Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms have ended skies have turned partly to mostly cloudy a few stars and some lightning in the sky to the east-northeast total rainfall today: exactly 1.00"

Noting the progressive nature of the flow with not much blocking and a somewhat flattened SER I would think this is further east like the last storm that developed to our east that looked like a tropical system but not that Far East

What year is that from? LOL Lock it in!! It's Happening!

We can get huge events early march March 1993 yes you can especially if deep arctic air rushes south to meet up with increasingly unstable humid warm Gulf of Mexico or Southwest Atlantic BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!!

12z Gfs just a dumpster fire

That’s the typical way we get snow in best climo heading late January to February.

getting closer

pretty good STJ input on that map!

Looks like a prime set up for a zonal overrunning events just so long as the cold air can set up and press down from the north I think we would be in business from January 27th to about February 8th or so.

Right on with my thinking.

February 2003 Presidents Day

That my friend is happening looks right to me. Hmm That would yield a pretty significant severe weather event Tennessee Valley to Mid-Atlantic looks similar to February 2017 set up.

I love this can't stop watching. Guess this is where we need to go; at least for this year anways. Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia

I totally agree with this and the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific entire basin, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico say Ridge ON!!! Our weather pattern in the United States is tied to the Above normal sea surface temperatures near Japan north central Pacific... and Europe's lack of snow is tied to the above normal sea surface temperatures up and down the East coast of the United States right on out into the Atlantic. I have noticed anyone east, east-northeast, or northeast of these warm bodies of water have experienced above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. It makes sense to me for sure.