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Kevin Reilly

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    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

    I was saying Arctic ice melt was behind what was really happening for a few years now, since 2017-2018.

    It's just not that the oceans are warming over time.  The largest body of water on Earth is the Pacific Ocean and its warmth is overwhelming the North American climate system.  While you have blocking like a -EPO, -AO, -NAO you would think it would be very cold and forcing cold out of Canada, but reality is that we instead get the relative warmth off the Pacific Ocean not allowing the normal cooling effects from land and radiational cooling.  Like you said though Arctic ice melt is also probably at play as well and that is melting because the lower latitudes are on fire along with the oceans too. 

    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

    I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to 

    “watch the period starting on the tenth”

    ”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs”

    ”the period around the 20th is ripe”

    ”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th”

    and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe.

    larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal.

    this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles...

    hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving.

    also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell...

    Also to piggy back the Pacific has now ruined our winters now for the past few years with overwhelming our entire North American Continent with relative warmth no matter the state of El Niño or La Niña states.  Could it be our warming Earth?  Could it be dumping worldwide warmth into our oceans which is changing the overall climate system?  It takes longer to warm the oceans and cool them down hence winters in some areas are shorter and shorter windows to produce what we want snow!  I have honestly not seen too many times where you have a -epo, -ao, -Nao and can’t find cold air??  Temperature wise we are above normal for January again.  Just frustrating to see nothing even in a suppose good look that the Pacific overwhelms anyway.  Now that I said all of this it will snow lol? 

    January Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Ji said:

    we lost the GFSs but gained the Canadien big time lol

    It’s very heavy obvious the models are having a very difficult time tracking the short waves and timing coming off of two separate streams and strengthening blocking with arctic air possibly waiting in the wings. 

    January Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    @WxUSAF if you look the h5 going back 72 hours and through the next 160 hours the flow is perfect with vort and vort tracking just under us. But nothing is amplifying at the surface. I’m starting to think part of the problem (other then just fast flow and crowded field) is the lack of healthy baroclinicity. There just isn’t much of a thermal gradient to fuel a surface system to amplify. The airmass is all blah everywhere. Do you think that’s part of the problem?  

    I agree with what you are saying! Temps day and night are remarkably stable  not much of a variation.  We do need a better baroclinic zone and temperature gradient to develop those all important coastal fronts that east coast storms love to feed off of the gradient and whatever warmer ocean temps may be near by but we also need the cold not this modified suedo that we currently have.

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    My post wasn't directed specifically at you. The point was we don't need a true arctic airmass in place(for the lowlands) leading up to an event in order to get a snowstorm. Moderate cold will work when the atmospheric setup is very favorable.

    Totally agree!! 

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    Yeah, it tends to be colder further north. Maybe go back and read the context of the original posts.

    Oh I’m missing something else we were in the best spot geographically in relation to the blocking that was in place too.  Just so you know I’m only about 10 miles north of the Mason Dixon Line so not too far north.  

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Interstate said:

    From what I remember the Dec 09 storm was pretty darn cold... I believe it was in the low 20s... and I think the second blizzard was decently cold as well.

    Yes I remember both well set ups were somewhat similar.  The temps here in SE pa were mainly in the lower to mid 20s which gave us great snow ratios which really helped us get to our totals.  The February 2010 storm same but that storm had winds 35-45 over our area to boot too. 

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

    Cold will be less of issue once these aren’t the storm tracks ..1860C852-4785-4024-A574-0F1993D530E4.jpeg.ce85851ae10e6127dbdb17bbae27a111.jpeg

    You forgot to draw in a big blue H off the coast of the Southeastern United States.  Time and time again the warmth is gathering in Texas off to the east and southeast deflecting the storms to follow a developed baroclinic zone west of the southeast ridge. 

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    7 hours ago, RedSky said:

    Possibly the strongest for the time of year on record

     

    Think we need this record breaking event outta here before we can see our next snow threat.  While the ducks (teleconectors) look just about right I’m not seeing the sustained cold for us to score at this time crazily still looks too progressive. 

    • Weenie 1

    December 16/17 Winter Event

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

    10pm heading back SE 925/850/surface....please someone explain why it does not snow when all thes levels are below freezing west of 95?  What don’t I understand?

    55EDE724-5A61-4D6C-98C1-226C6DE9AC5C.png

    BD8DA40E-109C-4113-8C24-09BCD5A5DBE7.png

    EA541063-00C4-4B15-9161-505CBF0B1C11.png

    There is a warm layer coming in off the Atlantic down your way in DC Baltimore area that warm air layer gets scoured away but barely up here in southern pa by PHL due to the storm hitting the breaks and moving off the coast east bound. 

    • Thanks 1
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