Kevin Reilly

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If we get a dominant central Pac ridge pattern...there have been 10 January/February warning level snowfall events in our area with that regime, but every one had a pretty significant NAO block.  This is the loading pattern a couple days before those 10 events.  

The point is for that ridge alignment to work would require an equally anomalous NAO block. 

There really hasn’t been a significant NAO block December to March really since 2009-2010? We scored big December 23rd 2009 and February 23rd or so 2010 off a negative NAO.   Correct me if I’m wrong.  Now  of course NAO was negative on October 30th for Sandy 2012.  

67 already in Media Delaware County!  Wow!

In reality so far what I have learned this year Winter of 2019 is never to trust any model beyond say 4 days anything after is an extreme crap shoot due to the chaotic pattern.  

43 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm sorry but the NAO is the new unicorn of weather.

I'll take an -AO and roll em any time.  -NAO has played less and less of a factor in our last few/many years, and is becoming harder to achieve.  What are the reasons/mechanisms behind it...

We can and will snow in less than perfect setups and with other indicies in our favor. 

We need to stop chasing the perfect pattern.  It rarely exists.

Climate Change I am sure may affect the index the most perhaps. 

35 dewpoint 26 Media pa cloudy

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Strongest correlation by a large margin is the AO. The NAO is what gives us the monsters. You won't find many big storms without a neg nao leading and/or pos pna. Feb 2014 was unusual but flukes happen.

I pay more attention to the AO in general but ninos with a neg nao are pretty ripe for big storms. Especially in Feb... I'm expecting some big storms in Feb in the east unless the universally agreed upon blocking universally busts.

I’ve been saying this for years Jan 7th 1996 PHL 31” negative NAO just to name a few.

30f Media Delaware County cloudy.

Now I know we are all looking for -EPO, -NAO -AO +PNA MJO SSWE etc. but what about the possibility that the warming ocean temps world wide is overwhelming the cooling produced by the melting polar ice caps.  Yes, I am trying to link the possibility that whatever you want to call it global warming or climate change is at work here in regards to our weather patterns.  

It would appear to me that the overall warmth of the ocean especially the Pacific and the Atlantic is overwhelming the whole system with warmth and the lag time to get winter is increasing over time relative to normal.  

In North America for instance the continental arctic air is overwhelmed by the warming of the pacific for instance causing a storm track that just favors more regularly warmth flooding in from the Pacific.

I mean 15" snowstorms along the East Coast Richmond to NYC are becoming like tracking hurricanes up the east coast in August to October.

Kevin

Here is my thinking on Maria comes north slows and stalls a bit off of the North Carolina Coast then the trough comes in from the west and Maria begins to exit off ENE from North Carolina or east of Virginia Beach.  

2 minutes ago, SeanBarg said:

That twitter handle was posting every fake damage shot possible earlier.. I would take that video footage with a grain of salt as I don't know that the choppers had time to reach the island before nightfall given the conditions. 

Also actually thought the damage would look much worse than what is being shown here too.

I will never forget Larry Cosrove being the first to see the 1996 blizzard a week ahead of time when he was on channel 17.

Ahhh yes you struck a cord now I remember him you are so right he did!!!

Sounds like Chip Kelly

Adam always wanted complete power. He certainly had it in this forum. He was easily the most heavy handed moderator i have ever seen at any site. They have their two or three extremely knowledgeable people but they basically talk to themselves all day every day. Who wants a forum like that. Trust me they would love to be back here but can't swallow their pride. It can't be any fun talking to yourself and banning the other three people who dare say anything.

I post here Im a relative newbie but honestly I like the folk here and are highly knowelegable. Irishbri and Tombo brought me in here to read posts but frankly those that are still here I enjoy reading with and experiencing weather with and are somewhat in the local ball park with me geographically. Ie hey Redsky tremendous thunderstorm line just rolled through me and Kamu get ready!! Also love reading Rays post Famaritin he keeps the snow weenie in me grounded. I vote to keep things as is. I will certainly be here to support and read the fine ladies and gents here respectully. I have learned to keep all views and to listen to other weather enthusiasts lesson learned from Tombo.

Here comes the more important snows already from the south