Kevin Reilly

3k Nam shows 2” lol???

26 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Oops, my geographical error. Avondale is near Kennett Square way west of Bucks. 

Actually Avondale is about 51 miles SW of Bucks County.  Avondale is about 18 miles West southwest of me here in Media

30 minutes ago, Newman said:

That map looks exactly almost to the inch of the Euro run from yesterday afternoon.  I am most interested in Euro run tonight.

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

4th and goal for Brady on the 4. FG unit is coming onto the field. Should be an easy chip shot to take the lead here with under 5 to play. Time out taken by his opponent to try and ice the kicker. Not sure I agree with the time management call but we'll see. 

And here we go....for the lead (or the loss in our case)....here's the snap....the kick is up...AND IT'S BLOCKED!!!! THE FG IS BLOCKED!!! Recovered and downed by the defense on their own 17. Wow, what a turn of events here to stop the drive. Unbelievable.  This one is going to come down to the wire. 

We get the ball back with 4:20 to play tied at 24 and all Brady can do is sit on the sideline and hope his D holds and he gets a late shot at a drive. How fitting would this be for a rare upset for the DC/Philly teams. Wow! 

Ralph liked we talked about this morning it looks like the Euro is beginning to correct itself from its southwest bias?  However no doubt about it tonight's 0z runs will for sure seal the deal and what the models show tonight Euro included is most likely going to be the final outcome minus the fine details.

Oh and then we can start the discussion about banding, gravity waves, and also the all important snow ratios is it 10:1, 12:1, or 15:1?  I am thinking in this set up probably looking at 12:1 or 13:1 or so.

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

What is unsettling in addition is guidance showing that death band with divergence aloft and subsidence to the left. One area will be seeing 2"/hr or more while 15 miles west is seeing very lightly accumulating snow. That cutoffs from that sort of look that we have been thru before can cause major headaches for some. Imho we are losing the widespread MECS signal and getting more isolated.

On Water Vapor you can see the Push NE to SW up north of New England in SE Canada that is now being modeled now. Perhaps the models are picking up on the strength and timing of that feature. 

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS is nudging S and E. The culprit as I pointed out yesterday on the NAM (which subsequently lost) is a vort swinging SE across parts of.New England around 54 -66 hrs.

So Ralph maybe it's not the Euro Bias here... perhaps we are heading for a disaster overall.  May it's really windy out there right now there is your confluence. 

54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Weenie handbook Chapter 7 Page 611 Section 2 clause b: When all guidance agrees on a solution except for 1 that appears an outlier, remove outlier from group AND remove the most extreme solution on the other end from the group as well to reduce skew 

In this case adios Euro and remove the ICON from the other side and the truth likely lies in between remaining modeling solutions. 

Therefore my forecast for Delaware County and along the I-95 Corridor stands at a snowstorm is coming look for a general 8-12" (We can go up from there as needed)

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

If you look at all other guidance, the Euro dramatically weakens the energy coming out of the Southwest to the point it is almost a flat wave. It makes sense to think that to keep energy rolling thru u need it to be weaker. Probably is something in the algorithm in a particular area or with a particular SD vort [if h5 sw is between lat x longitude y and > 35cv SD +3 then etc etc]. Maybe I'm off base but like I said, red taggers in other subs noted this last year when the euro would suddenly crap the bed with systems and be alone in a solution. Certainly plausible.

Yep and I would think that this error would affect the entire run coast to coast due to all the physics involved falling apart like a domino effect all the way to the newly formed coastal low being too weak and  too far east or southeast.  

Now the 6z Euro showing what appears to be a dual low structure which is often the case in a blocked system trying to move NE along the United States East Coast.

I am very curious to see the Euro at 1:00 today I wonder if it starts correcting itself or continues to struggle.  I wouldn't be surprised the Euro continues to struggle while the other models continue on continuing on.  

I bet the Euro doesn't start picking up the major storm idea again until the storm is passing through the southern Rockies.

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12z euro is going to start to  come back....0z tonight latest. Mark my words. It has NO support with how it handles the energy coming on the coast in the short range. I truly think they put something in the algorithm when they 'upgraded' it to remove the old Southwest bias and I've noticed whenever energy rolls into California is has mysteriously weakened it to rush it East. Now my total amateur thought is this actually makes total sense. If you wrote a computer program that had a bias of being too strong in an area and digging subsequent trof too strongly in that area, wouldn't your bandaid be to counteract that code by being weaker out there when energy is detected moving into the region? I dunno, I'm pulling straws here on why the euro is all alone BUT I have in fact noticed this weakening out in the W and SW many times when our systems come in since the upgrade. We've discussed this in other subs and even some red taggers agreed they did something to the algorithm out there to cause vorts to weaken too fast and not amplify which allows for the energy to remain more progressive and not dig in and get stuck out there. Long story short,  I'm willing to bet this is what the euronis doing yet again. Besides, we are out of the euro wheelhouse now. The runs 2 days ago with the bomb solution was the euros notoriously best range. We'll see....i.am confident it.comes back even if just with ticks and not big jumps. 

Totally Agree look at my comment from earlier:

What happened to the Euro run last night??  Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest?

Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east.

Thoughts??

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I'm thinking they are no longer tossing the GFS idea...I seriously think the Euro is too cold and is pushing too far South.

What happened to the Euro run last night??  Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest?

Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east.

Thoughts??

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv

What happened to the Euro run last night??  Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest?

Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east.

Thoughts??

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Never bet against team ECM CMC

I do 100% agree with this 

Models at 0z= The Great Divide!! 
 

This threat has begun to lose traction. 
 

I am 95% sure we have a solution here in 24 hours 

14 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

They seem to be in the denial phase pointing out the good things about the run. They'll hit the acceptance phase after the Euro....

I probably should have said the Walt Whitman! 

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

0 for 2...GFS is brief thump to rain then dryslot SE PA. SECS. GFS has been consistent asf

90% that the Euro will follow suit. All these models vs the King no it’s not going to work out.  I’m not staying up for the Euro.  Those poor souls in the Mid Atlantic Forum are probably standing on the ledge of the bridge looking down at the Potomac!!    I mean did anyone seriously think 20”+ was going to happen. 

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

O for 1 at 0z. ICON was a disaster. Brief thump to rain to dryslot. 

This is what I said at 10 on another site:

I hate Miller B storms I have seen us get screwed many times!!! I’m still concerned about a progressive flow that doesn’t slow the storm down to develop or a combo progressive flat zonal flow it can still happen.  I think IF this were to happen we start seeing a backwards trend starting at 0z into 12z tomorrow.   The big runs start Friday IMO. 

sounds like the primary is too far north and block doesn’t hold the warming off the ocean and south welp it’s probably the likely out come now.  I never trust storms rolling off the Pacific and cruising across the country towards a block that’s lifting out.  Opens the door to the warm surge!! 

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The JV models (JMA and NAVGEM) are complete misses from DC to Boston. Not even a flake or drop of rain. 

It may be right too??  These models may be showing the block breaking down the flow too progressive and the storm develops too late and gets whisked out to sea.  It is plausible.  

I bet the Euro lies between the GFS and Ukie and Canadian just a hunch.

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's a fairly classic look tbh and mixing in the city during these events for a period is very common. This is a little different tho as the ull is closed and moves right over us while capturing the slp. Lots of dynamics at play. That's something tbd later. But yes, having some mixing work in is common.

Yep agreed mainly sleet probably and graupel. Wonder if there would be convective bursts you can tell I can’t wait for the high resolution dynamical models. I’m holding my expectations for now in check. 

Any worry about warm air surging in from the SE ocean water temps about 60 miles out pretty toasty.  I mean the storm is sitting there with an  easterly component and the high up north is losing its grip as the block breaks down.  If I am Delaware River east and southeast this screams warm air off the Atlantic with a changeover. 

Just now, Ji said:

Lp in sw va that gives us no precip. What world do we live in?

The new normal for winters 

17 minutes ago, Animal said:

Seriously phl airport had a disaster last winter..odds favored a comeback this season.still 6 maybe 7 weeks left for snow.

If we get 2 minor events, puts phl around 12-14 for the season.

it’s entirely possible nothing occurs.

 

 

Lol it is a comeback winter all last year at PHL 0.7” we got 6.3 and 2 traces so far!  Yes, I know I know not what we want!  We want more and seasonal norms are 19.0-22” 

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Cmc is close to a big hit. 

 

We need to get that D#&n lobe in Canada to get the hell out of the way.

Wouldn't it be something if Dr. No Trends north with the TPV up north too like the CMC and all the other modes at 0z tonight adjust everything north it may happen?  

7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Most important runs of the year

eta: ninja’d by Ralph Wiggum

To help keep me sane I’ll expect a step backwards with a 967 mb low leaving South Carolina..,

but for real the solutions that show sub 980 mb lows are most likely wrong without the flow amplifiying along the east coast.  Reality will most likely be a continued east moving quasi Souther slider at 990 to 997 mb leaving just south of Virginia Beach.  Don’t they often say the latitude a storm enters on the west coast that’s the latitude it leaves on the east coast.  Not sure where I heard that before but I’m guessing only if the flow is zonal or almost zonal. 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

3k is great for MD. Think it was a step in the right direction. Plenty of time for this to get colder.

Wondering how much though is sleet vs snow?