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Kevin Reilly

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    Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    48 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

    GFS apparently just caved to the RGEM but then said, listen since you rented the room, I'll pay for an extra night.

    Danger is more with mixing than total QPF if these coastal long-duration scenarios work out. Severe mixing may intrude into se NJ but what about PHL? Thinking maybe 20% loss to sleet? If these scenarios actually happen, if more like NAM/Euro then total QPF a lot lower anyway. 

    Seriously, a little north of metro PHL could get buried 1888 style if these maps pan out. 

    I live in a high snow area myself so you might catch up to me by Tuesday (snow on ground 32" here).

    I’m not so sure even at that position the cold is locked in off a NNE wind funneling down the Delaware Valley.  Think we stay all snow at this point. 

    Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Newman said:

    Imagine 30 hours out from right now one model gives Philly 3.5", and another gives Philly 17.5".... well that's the difference between the American guidance NAM and GFS. Thirty. Hours. Out.

    That’s fine.  I’m going with GFS Euro and Canadian over the NAM.... now the Nam has lower amounts too because of it showing sleet.  It’s a warner bias dynamical model my thinking is the Nam is showing tremendous uplift and convection along the Delaware River.  Instead of that being all sleet reality is 28 degrees thunder lightning and snow falling 2-3-4 inches an hour.  It’s the only thing I can think of.  

    • Thanks 1

    Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Just now, Newman said:

    Yes John Bolaris at Fox 29

     Bingo!! It was more of a trivia question but that whole thing was a complete disaster of a storm even Paul Kocin got it wrong.  
     

    I too am on edge due to that storm.  Like snow is just going to appear on top of us feeling.  
     

    Miller Bs are notorious for pulling the rug out DC Baltimore to PHL then your looking NE Pa and North Jersey to down east Maine getting pummeled while we have mood flakes and an East wind that goes NE the N then WNW in time.  
     

    I am bracing for the disaster hoping for the best so yes I’m PSTD from 2001 and also knowing we are sitting at 7” total at the airport last two years. 

    Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    You know how over the years models will spit out some ridiculous storm and we joke "give me that under 60 hours and we're partying"? Many in SE PA are bullseyed including myself with under 3hrs from the onset and I'm not comfortable.....at all. This has a very high bust potential for SE PA thay could go either way and we are relying on a capture at just the right latitude to get it done for us. That is no small task. The NAM and ICON continual shifts have me on edge. Glad I am working later today. Hoping for the best, braced for a disaster. I still have PTSD from March 2001. 

    Oh yea that storm we are getting 20”+ reality a few sprinkles sun poking out later in the day total accumulation zero!!  That was a Miller B set up.  Didn’t a meteorologist lose his job on that one? 

    Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

    If that ccb band pushes nw it’ll also push the mix line south of it at the height. Philly 6-12 is fair atm, burbs 10-20, we need to survive one more day of runs, if we’re good by 00z tonight let’s roll. 

    Oh no I think we know sooner than that this clearly shifted NE this early morning we pretty much no what we are dealing with at 12z hard to tell if the trends will hold but there’s definitely bouncing around.  The finer details get ironed out tonight at 0z but it looks like 10”+ I-95 N and W and N and NE this could move another 35-45 miles either way I think. 

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