Kevin Reilly

Cloudy 36f humidity 97% dew point 35f Wet out there was a few showers 0.01” My snow expectations 10-14” here in Central Delaware County

You have a member at Dennis Twp NW Cape May County over land talk about backing in crazy.

lol there’s a center on land at Dennis Twp Cape May County won’t that weaken the hurricane lol.

Yes Euro Gfs Canadian and UK type models at this lead will smooth things out. What is happening upstairs at 500 is all that matters. Now we move towards to dynamic models to track banding, temps crashing from aloft, and thundersnow. Quite frankly we are about done looking at Gfs Euro Icon Uk Candian models. The tracking is about to come to an end time to watch the water vapor map radar.

Absolutely everyone is napping. I just woke up got 3 hours of sleep tracking last night till 5 am.

Right where we want it

Come on I’m in the rip off zone only 18.5” must be sinking air between bands ehh I’m okay just noise.

I guess it’s better to be here than in Chicago for this one then?

Also could be the quickly rising air in scattered thunderstorms producing graupel. Dynamics with 974 mb to 966 mb will be quite impressive!

Blizzard warnings to the Delaware River now.

It’s still playing catch up but time is almost up. It’s like the kid in school rushing to answer the last 5 questions on the test before extended time has come to an end at the conclusion of the school day.

I’m fine with Hurricane. He’s a Terrific forecaster but honestly looK where we’ve been. I mean even this year at times has been quite progressive or too blocky no real in between. The highlights of this winter will be for most 10” of snow followed by almost 4” of sleet, weeks of VERY cold, and this storm here and what it will probably produce. This is going to have to be perfect alignment and even a few runs ago days ago who really believed we would be here I will say this also the happenings out west, 80f falling to single digits in Nebraska, the tornado event in Illinois and Indiana, and this potential monster east coast storm I believe marks the signal end of La Niña and welcomes us into a weak to moderate El Niño. It is time. Seems like La Niña has been going strong since our Tornado filled night back in February 2017. Remember the last time we had a moderate El Niño 2009-2010.

Precip looks like scattered thunderstorms on a radar during summer

I mean is it just me or are all these models showing very small noise level shifts and other models still seem to be catching up. At this point it’s time to bring up the water vapor map circle the northern stream and southern vorts and extrapolate.

Surface still trying to catch up to upper level conditions it also shows up as rain.

February 11th 1983

Thunderstorms

Nam is like 24” I-95 corridor by 7 am Monday more towards the coast

Looked like 8 am rain / snow mixed then going boom after 2 pm southeast moving northwest of all things.

For who Albany

Haven’t seen an eye feature in a while this looks like February 2010.

Model noise

Noise

So…. Media Delaware County: gfs 23.1” Euro 3.7” all righty then. go ahead issue the winter storm watch for 4” or more with wind gusts to 35-40 mph check back later.

I don’t mean to be a wennie but we know this isn’t happening. I’m not buying it still I’ll go down with the ship. Even if everything did come together warmer grounds / 50 degrees tomorrow totals of 20-30” probably are more like 12-16” but still wow. I’m very very interested to see how this unfolds and it’s been a very enjoyable ride of learning these model outputs with this particular set up.