Kevin Reilly

The flow down here in Kitty Hawk has been NE and east since last Saturday. Temps in the 70's and water temp in the 80's. Currently cloudy patchy fog / drizzle 74f wind NE 20-30 mph.

Hour 384 in regard to tropical development minus well be hour 1000+. This scenario will change at least 10x before we even get to hour 200 let alone 384. Interesting to look at but whether it is the 18z gfs or even this 0z Euro run for it to play out this way is unlikely. The only thing that these model runs tell me is that there will be an uptick in activity and wait and see what happens over the next 3-5 days. What I have noticed is that the models are pushing everything back 5-10 days which is also a typical caveat of modeling. What happened last year we were searching for 10 days out and hour 384 etc. and then we had storms like Hurricane Heleen blow up out of nowhere which could be the case this year. I would not watch 384 hours out but rather just make sure we are not missing something closer in time. I think the next 3-4 days of model watching and looking at other things like the visible and water vapor maps will be useful tools to locate harmless little low level or mid-level swirls that become something bigger in time. Mean time here in Kitty Hawk where I still am the strong gusty NE winds have begun again, and the beaches are once again closed to swimmers due to heavy surf and dangerous rip currents under 82-85 water temps.

Ehh even if that develops it will just ease off to the east and east northeast once it gets to the latitude of say Cape Fear NC.

It has been on the models off and on but there is blocking in the Atlantic showing up as well. I think that is why you saw the tracks into the Carolinas which is plausible.

Sea Surface temps up the east coast are a bit concerning for a tropical system IF atmospheric conditions are right to maintain its energy well northward up the coast. Now with how wet it has been minus the last week in the Mid Atlantic up to NYC and northern New Jersey could be setting up for a few rough weeks from now until say August 25th depending on what both systems do up the East Coast. System #1 Late week into the weekend and early next week System #2 August 15th to 20th sitting out in the western MDR right now. Case in point I am in Kitty Hawk NC right now and ocean water temps have been running 82-85 on the regular since I have been here Saturday.

Pretty cool here in Kitty Hawk NC 76 dew point 58 with winds screaming in from the NE 20-35 mph double red flag warning no one allowed in the 6-8 foot surf. I’m pretty sure the ocean water temp is like 82 too crazy times.

Yea winds here in the Outebanks are sustained from the NE 20-30 with gusts to 40 mph. Water is closed to swimmers double red flags as the ocean is running 5-8 feet.

So long it doesn't visit me in Kitty Hawk Outer banks I am fine. I will be there August 2nd to August 9th.

I saw a few flying around in the backyard 2 total while I was cutting the grass this on Monday. The hornets typically nest into my small hill along the driveway in mid-July I don't see them yet.

I mean those two maps basically follow normal climatological patters of the Atlantic Ocean over many years from what I can remember really. I see nothing that screams we will not see normal to above normal hurricane activity this season. However, it screams East Coast impacts which was my thinking earlier last week.

Looks like any circulation at all is just SSW of Apalachicola Florida. As stated though not much organization to this as it moves westbound being steered by high pressure to the north and an upper low in the Bay of Campeche. Looks like the most likely situation is a firehose of moisture directed into southeastern Louisiana through much of south central Louisiana. Looking over models over the next two weeks we are in a situation where a stalled out frontal boundary will be sitting near the Northern Gulf Coast and up and down the Southeast United States East Coast which can lead to tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico or along the Southeast Coat of the United States then move off to the northwest, north, then northeastward. We will have to watch and see how far north any development off the Southeast Coast can get between now and say July 30th hopefully not to aggravate flooding concerns in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Southeastern Pa, Delaware, and New Jersey.

Florida Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather There is another circulation just west of Key West too interesting. Still have the lower-level circulation up in north Florida near Gainesville moving west and the mid-level circulation moving west southwest of Ocala into the Gulf at this time fairly active in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should be rather interesting to see how all of this unfolds over the next 24-48 hours.

If 93L comes off and can manage a further SW track before turning west then west-northwest then northwest it would stand a much better chance at development over water for a longer period of time.

Exactly what I was thinking. We are right now at 50/50 I think in regards to development of something significant say depression or Dexter once the middle level vortex emerges off the west coast. Now because it’s a mid level circulation it should have no issue making it across down I-4 in central Florida to the gulf time wi tell.

It will be interesting to see what models do keep in the back of your mind there are two distinct circulations models will have to sift out which is the circulation to track. If they latch onto the northern circulation they will naturally not show much of anything. The true circulation well south-southwest 100 miles or so could just burrow to the surface and take over for development next 36 hours.

Looks like a low level circulation moving west towards Jacksonville that will move inland into SE Georgia. The mid level circulation moving west through central Florida will head west and emerge just north or near Tampa then we watch and wait for developments. As you said it’s a pretty robust circulation and once pressures fall in the gulf it can and will develop. Regardless 2-4” of rain all along the path of this system maybe more depending on development especially for the central gulf coast.

I am not 100% sure about that, but I don't think you can really compare the two because last year at this time we had two tropical storms and a massive Category 5 Beryl on July 1st in the Carribean. I am sure in time things could catch up fast, but that will depend on atmospheric conditions and the Sarahann Dust layer.

Yes, definitely my thoughts too and I am pretty concerned for up and down the east coast August to September and then especially the Florida Peninsula like last year later September into October with development coming from the Carribean then approaching the Florida West Coast from the southwest and south-southwest come September and October.

Seriously Paul, I am becoming more and more concerned for our area when the tropics visit later in the season due to all these areas picking up 3-8" of rain off and on daily. Water temp down here in Sea Isle had to be close to 80f last two days just walk right on in the water zero getting used to any inkling of cooler waters. I saw an official report of 82f down in Cape May yesterday. I am not exactly sure what it is here in Sea Isle but yesterday last two days I would estimate 78-79f or so. There have been three days of east then southeast winds down here currently winds are pretty light and generally west-southwest at like 3 mph. I can envision tropical systems turning up the east coast this year as the current trough lifts out and retrogrades west or northwest bound you can almost see it coming.

Also just checking the boxes here. I see the title of this post "Inactive" Season Posting Check In: So, far we are at 3 named systems exactly one year ago we too were at 3 named systems. On that pace we had 21 named storms last year. After Record Breaking Category 5 Hurricane Beryl there was a very long pause in development which saw many weeks of Sarhan Dust. We should NOT let our guard down. Last year I remembered the same conversations about inactive where are the hurricanes then along came storms like Helene which absolutely devastated inland communities in the southeastern states and Milton to round out the Hurricane season it was pretty bad! I am very concerned for the future state of the East Coast Florida to Long Island and the entire Gulf Coast right into Texas. Things are really set up for some historic problems being that multiple areas in the path of potential tropical cyclone paths are picking up record breaking rainfall rates. The obvious hotbeds for this is Texas, North Carolina, and much of the Mid-Atlantic. Also, I am up here in South Jersey, and we have seen ocean water temps right now sitting at 78-82f pretty toasty. In closing I unfortunately think we are set up for a pretty bad August to early October and the current state of the weather pattern with the East Coast pretty much open and the Gulf Coast once the trough currently in place retrogrades west towards the Ohio Valley in time.

I think the pathway for the Icon to be correct is if 93-L went on a further southern track. Could it happen? It is a plausible solution. I am in no way comparing this possible tropical development to Katrina but remember Katrinia's path. Katrina started out moving west towards the Florida coast then it took a turn southwest while strengthening very very rapidly before moving back off to the west and then northwest. (Again, I am only using this note for tracking purposes not intensity) 93-L could possibly do the same and tuck under the trough gliding off to its north and move further south then move west before making a turn west-northwest then northwest then making landfall whatever becomes of 93-L as it moves to Louisiana. We would need to see hints of this at some point today and into tonight though. Looks like the center of 93L which is pretty evident is coming onshore just south of Daytona Beach heading west looking at steering currents most point to westbound but here is quite a southwesterly push down the west coast of Florida currently and some limiting shearing in regard to future intensity that too will need to be monitored in regard to final intensity outcome.

All depends on how long the feature can stay over water. The Gulf is pretty much running 88f basin wide from the Florida West Coast and across some areas are even warmer. Remember folks it is only July 15th we have a LONG ways to go here.

Sounds good Paul! Hopefully I don’t get water into the basement coming off the roof too quickly. I’m down in Sea Isle right on the beach at 69th Street. Looks like ocean water temp is about 77f

I’m here 69th and the beach amazing shots! Almost looks like sunrise.

Just a few left over drops of rain 72f humidity 98% dewpoint 72f Total Rainfall: 2.90"