wasnow215

Manson, North Carolina is showing 39° on their current weather temperature as far as forecasted hour by hour. It is 32° there now currently.

We obviously are concerned about temperatures and should be. But a few interesting notes regarding what’s happening in places that weren’t supposed to get frozen precip. Here’s one from the triad in North Carolina. Notice it says they are “expanding the winter weather advisory”.

Interesting trends on the short term models. It wasn’t until recently that we were seeing the models show rain to snow to rain back to snow again. Nam is showing that and so is the HRRR. And they hang onto the snow a little longer. Could help.

Weather bug is still working.

Not completely. Still right around 0° next Monday morning 2-15 with windchills well below that.

It was relatively warm last Saturday also

Anyone have 6z Euro maps?

Exactly-and seems like even the best of them are clinging to any random model that supports bigger snow.

It’s funny to see the regional threads and everybody getting all excited when really it’s a 2 to 4 spread everywhere LOL.. maybe a little more north of DC and into interior southern New Jersey etc.

18z Euro is solid again

Gfs warm also. Not a good 18z trend

NAM models didn’t handle last Sunday on Friday either did they? Just wondering.

Thank you Rhino!

Thanks man! Much respect for you so I appreciate it! For last Sunday I told the region that the snow should change to a mix or rain by 11 AM and then taper off rather quickly, and I was getting nervous around 9am. But sure enough it came through haha.

I’ve been sending this to my different Richmond area workplaces- we have multiple locations all over RVA. And think I know you guys well enough now to share so I would like your thoughts if you care to give them LOL. I sent this out this morning at 6 AM. This is a special weather bulletin: What: Snow will most likely be blanketing our region again THIS Saturday night (tomorrow night) into Sunday morning. 2-4” of snow is expected at this time. When: Precip will begin sometime between 7 PM n 10 PM Saturday evening most likely as light rain n will transition fairly quickly to snow. Temps will be above freezing to start and really won’t fall below freezing, but could settle in right around 32° during the heaviest of the snow overnight Saturday into Sunday. For us it could be very similar to last Sunday morning-however the storm is not as large. The relatively moderate temperatures will help with roads, but the fact that it will be dark when the heaviest snow is falling will hurt with roads. Sorry this is so late -the snow chance pretty much disappeared as a possibility this past Monday and really didn’t start showing up again on the models until yesterday. Plus with the day job I’ve been behind watching Criminal Minds. Lol

12Z Canadian was nice. Ratios are going to be tough because I think we could be looking at six or 7 to 1 ratios.

00z Euro excellent. Temps are dicey but the 850’s hold.

Solid 00z runs. For Sunday and beyond.

Thank you! Great explanation.

18z Euro

Thoughts on the fact that GFS this past Sunday showed temps around zero for Central Va on 2/8 and Euro did for 2/9 but starting Tue drastically changed that to overnight lows around freezing for those nights. Why do you feel this will be different for 10-14 day?

Let’s gooooo!!

Looks like almost like late Sat night start timing wise so that’s good for accumulations.

Saw that

I thought GFS had something day 10 tho