wasnow215

Stoutland gone sadly

Interesting reading the medium/long range thread. Looks like next week and the week after could either be warm or cold, wet or dry Kind of like watching the local evening news. Lol

Separate topic… What does everybody think about starting a new discussion beginning in November of this year? Next year is supposed to be even more active possibly with El Niño it may be nice to start a new one it hasn't been started since 2023.

I've been talking about this for a few days now. Friday and Saturday are going to be interesting weather days. Strong cold front moves through with snow showers setting up in parts of Richmond, that could leave an inch of snow Then on Saturday we could see wind gusts as much as 50 mph in RVA and up to 70 mph as you go south and east to the beaches. Hampton Roads, NN, Va Beach etc. etc. Windchill values could be below zero on Saturday. Not being talked about enough imo on the news etc, but could have power outages on Saturday in the daytime unfortunately.

Everyone I talk to here in the Richmond area keeps saying the same thing. Removing the glaciers from the "snowcrete" has been such a task for so many with driveways and sidewalks. Especially here most storms you see the temperatures quickly get into the upper 30s and 40s after. Last week and into the beginning of this week we barely got above freezing (maybe one or two days), and overnight temperatures barely double digits and single digits a couple of them. That has been the difference.

Ok now we can focus on the clipper Friday. 1" or bust!

Friday clipper could be juiced. And then cold and very windy Saturday

Serious question… With the HRRR how many hours out do you think we're safe where it's pretty good? I'm trying to broaden my horizons lol

Ok fair enough-Need a follow up tho to see if it verified. I've been looking at HRRR, RAP, SREF and others like it for as long as we could see weather models on the internet. Consistently a letdown and consistently incorrect no matter how many hours away it's crazy.

Daggone the RAP-that's some quality reachin right there -legendary.

Pithy-Lol If anything else would jump on the nam for tomorrow night though it would help, but nothing else is really except for all those meso's that never happens haha. GFS a mess and Dr No just keeps saying no. At least for RVA. The NAM set up looks like some of the models from the weekend it's crazy.

Very aggressive – they have more than Wakefield does for their "high end one in 10 chance".

Like I said earlier that European model has Friday snow showers with the cold front coming through more than the next couple days.

Midday models weak sauce. Please do not mention HRRR or I will scream lol

Once again a broken clock is more often right than HRRR

Pithy-not gonna cut it. Friday snow squaws better chance with clipper

That LP develops well on that run

I refuse to get invested til Euro shows something real. Doesn't have to be the right placement just something real which all of the other models had for this past weekend.

Nam is outside its range but really good run. We shall see

I think it's weak sauce. Temperatures are sketchy and there's probably about a 15% chance that low pressure really gets going enough to do anything.

For tomorrow evening into Wednesday… Unless that low pressure develops like some of the models are showing and gets decently strong, there's no way that weak sauce is going to get over the mountains, to be anything more than some pithy snow showers or rain showers possibly for Richmond, because rates will be so poor. Highly unlikely we see any good snow out of this.

Fair enough! I just remember years ago living up north in South Jersey-Cape May County for about a year in 2013/2014. Felt like it snowed every week for about a month and a half in the winter of 2014. I "discovered" HRRR because it rebooted every hour, so I thought it would be a neat tool during events especially. And even within a couple hours it was just so bad especially with placement.

I thought it always came north? I said that in a goofy voice lol! Lol!!

West Chesterfield/Magnolia Green area got hit hard on December 9 or whatever that Monday was. 5 inches here. Didn't even have a flake Saturday afternoon and evening. Edit-Dec 8

The HRRR isn't even as good as a broken clock. I've never seen it do well outside of six hours. SREF's same