wasnow215

I GUARANTEE you it won’t be 50° in NY State. The TRENDS continue to be colder. Anything else is just nonsensical speculation at this point. Can the trends change? Of course. There are no signs that they are. @Bob Chill talked about it last week-In this hobby as long as I’m not hugging one model that has the most snow etc but look at what the major models are showing and then the mesos within 48 hours or so of an event, most of the time we will have a general idea of what will occur, using the TOOLS at our disposal.

Exactly-More than half of these comments so far hopefully get moved to banter. Garbage. And yes this one should be also but it had to be said.

There’s really no jinx when more than half the comments so far are people whining about frozen precip type off of one Euro run. Reading the comments instantly thought of this guy. Hopefully storm mode soon so can be they can be moved to banter haha.

GFS ensembles are more snowy than sleety or icy. So that’s good. And not one of those is rain. From what I see anyway. Not one.

Yeah..sleet or snow. No ice. I’ll be tracking, while playing golf in Myrtle Beach lol.

My gosh

Anyone have GFS ice?

Well said! I think he’s more interested in being “contra-wise” more so than making the best call. So he can crap on other forecasts and forecasters.

So now EVERY model trending colder

Same

The guy has “WMPTSD” (wm is weather model lol). He got burnt in his mind so now he just quit. He sucked for the ice storm and took his ball and went home while half the region lost power and thousands of businesses closed. Big baby.

Yeah man. It’s the trends that are concerning for the ice. Hopefully this time WILL go to rain..or just be all snow! Lol

Yep. 1-2” of snow then sleet then freezing rain. 12z Euro. Wow.

I don’t have exact numbers but what I can tell from US Weather is Euro is colder 12z. Snow to freezing rain. And still cold at 5pm as far as I can tell. If someone has some maps that would be great.

Yep that’s what’s happening. The CAD is stronger seemingly each run most of the models.

What model is this? Ukie?

Been here since 2012, live in RVA now but have so much respect for all of you. Is it safe to say the models have continued to trend colder the past 48 hours for Thursday and folks in Richmond should really start being concerned about a repeat form Sat/Sun on Thursday for an ice storm?

Models continue to trend colder for Thursday. Again it’s what I mentioned yesterday. 2 days ago it was mostly rain w a bit of frozen to start on models. Now? It’s a least a 50/50 split for RVA. At least

2 problems with that and yes they are problems if it’s freezing rain: 1-Half the ensembles are major hits for Central Va 2-The pattern for the past several weeks has been one of suppressed systems as the model runs near the event.

Exactly!! As I said if people aren’t here to ‘listen’ to good weather people and see what’s happening with the models then go watch ‘Netflix and chill’.

Lol if it doesn’t matter why even look? You could just wait and be surprised.

12z GFS Ensembles NOT GOOD. Half of them show another ice storm for Central Va this coming Thursday 2/18.

Trees obviously an issue but just as an observation travel isn’t “nearly impossible” as a foot of snow is. Needed it to be 3-4° colder to be an extreme issue especially w roads. Again certainly not complaining, just observing.

29° in Glen Allen