wasnow215

I refuse to get invested til Euro shows something real. Doesn't have to be the right placement just something real which all of the other models had for this past weekend.

Nam is outside its range but really good run. We shall see

I think it's weak sauce. Temperatures are sketchy and there's probably about a 15% chance that low pressure really gets going enough to do anything.

For tomorrow evening into Wednesday… Unless that low pressure develops like some of the models are showing and gets decently strong, there's no way that weak sauce is going to get over the mountains, to be anything more than some pithy snow showers or rain showers possibly for Richmond, because rates will be so poor. Highly unlikely we see any good snow out of this.

Fair enough! I just remember years ago living up north in South Jersey-Cape May County for about a year in 2013/2014. Felt like it snowed every week for about a month and a half in the winter of 2014. I "discovered" HRRR because it rebooted every hour, so I thought it would be a neat tool during events especially. And even within a couple hours it was just so bad especially with placement.

I thought it always came north? I said that in a goofy voice lol! Lol!!

West Chesterfield/Magnolia Green area got hit hard on December 9 or whatever that Monday was. 5 inches here. Didn't even have a flake Saturday afternoon and evening. Edit-Dec 8

The HRRR isn't even as good as a broken clock. I've never seen it do well outside of six hours. SREF's same

Yes more chances for sure for winter weather/storms. Every time people talk about "winter is over" it doesn't end up being true. Well most times anyway. The same with "this will be the greatest three week pattern ever". and we get days in the 60s 10 days in.

That's because they have way more events and sand much less expensive. And it's also messier. Not saying one is better than the other just talking what the facts are.

Still nothing here at 23120 Mag Green

Same! Right near you in Magnolia Green

Actually the longer cycles of 100 years or more are more important than 20 to 30 or 40 years. Part of the reason we know that there has been glacier melting is because of satellite pictures from NASA. Well 100 years ago we didn't have pictures so we have no idea whether they were melting or gaining or anything else. But if we go from 1990 until 2090 we can get a better idea. As far as South Florida being uninhabitable that is an opinion not based on any facts. You could call it a theory. I'm not sure how old you are but I'm willing to bet South Florida isn't going to be uninhabitable by the time you pass away if you live to be 85 or whatever. Many climatologists have predicted things that they've had to retract. Things like "the Arctic will soon be ice free", they've had to retract saying it would be ice free by 2030. In fact Al Gore said in 2009 that it would be ice free in 5 to 7 years from then. That obviously proved not to be true. People also said that polar bears would become extinct. But they've actually increased by at least 8000 since the 1960s. Some scientists also have said that climate change would cause global massive food shortages. Barack Obama echoed this claim. Actually during the last decade food production has skyrocketed. I want to reiterate the fact you would have to be very ignorant to not realize that climate change is real. The issue I have and many others is continuing to cause people to fear without these things coming to fruition and then again pushing the goal posts back. This is also very ignorant. And some of it is just to be "right", which is really stupid by the way.

I agree a few days ago man but the last couple days except for one or two random model runs everything was dry or mostly dry on the models, from Petersburg north especially for Richmond itself. The European model went pretty much dry except for a little bit maybe up to an inch something like that. The normal reliable models were pretty much nothing in RVA. We were just hoping that if you have snow so close by it would have to get here with a northern jog but it doesn't seem like that's coming and actually the models picked up on that. It was only DT outlandishly, and the national weather service more conservatively that were showing decent snow but the models weren't supporting that the last 48 hours

SREF terrible model never verifies -maybe the "broken clock" theory can apply haha

Looks like not only do you have to be south but you have to be east also, because it is showing snow in Petersburg but no snow here in 23120 by Magnolia Green.

I just wanna add an inch to the winter totals lol. See it blow around in the big gusts. That's all I'm asking for with this one

And the GFS has been so good too!;)

My gosh that's an amazing shot! Here's hoping it makes it to Midlo!

Does anyone know if that snow is reaching the ground in Lynchburg and Chatham and Halifax?

Not gonna get into it back-and-forth but at least have to mention that of course the Earth has warmed the past 30 years or whatever it's been. But to what end? You see the doom and gloom climate change people keep trying to say "well because of it this bad thing is gonna happen or this bad thing is gonna happen." Some of it talking about "the end of the world" or cataclysmic destruction. But they keep moving the goal posts when those destructive things don't occur. It's irresponsible at best. Because we look at things in years and decades, but the bigger picture is in centuries. All climate is cyclical. Climatologist Dr. Judith Cohen absolutely agrees with climate change but is vocal regarding the fact no one actually knows what long-term effects it will have.

Rgem snow maps anyone plz?

What's hilarious about this is his first guess and first call, both went against what most of the weather models were saying. For two days now most of them have had very very little snow except for a couple of model runs like the one nam run 6z yesterday. No weather model handles storms great outside of 72 hours. It's always been a rule of thumb. So then when he gets to his last call he basically caves and adds an inch or two to save face so it doesn't look like what the NWS is saying. He used to be really really good. Now he's just a political puppet and it affects his forecasting skills.

Radar showing returns in southern Va not on any models -interesting

Which means HE also will bust