GaWx

You wouldn’t have to worry. The titles usually end up getting changed by others with the power to do so, especially when they get stronger.

I’m in favor of you starting a new thread. This system has been dominating this general ATL tropics thread for several days. The 18Z EPS mean track shifted west a lot from the 12Z with the vast majority of tracks in the E half of the GOM with most pretty weak.

From potential very slow movement I’d be more worried about extreme flooding from very heavy rainfall than dramatic intensification.

Due to much faster movement than recent storms, the strong effects from this one lasted only ~15 minutes. However, the wind from this at the start was probably the strongest yet of the many July thunderstorms here. The rain was torrential and the combo of that with wind strength/direction actually blew in some water under the door into the foyer, highly unusual. The short duration prevented major street flooding. I’ll check my rainfall later. Edit: It appears that despite the short duration that I got 1”+.

Here we go again!GAZ116>119-SCZ047-048-051-312115- COASTAL CHATHAM-INLAND CHATHAM-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND JASPER-COASTAL JASPER-BEAUFORT- 434 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2024 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BRYAN, CHATHAM, BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES... AT 434 PM EDT, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GODLEY STATION TO FORT MCALLISTER, AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT, UNSECURED OBJECTS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... POOLER, BLUFFTON, RICHMOND HILL, TYBEE ISLAND, WILMINGTON ISLAND, FORT PULASKI NATIONAL MONUMENT, BELLINGER HILL AREA, AND MIDTOWN SAVANNAH.

Finally a bounce of OISST 3.4 (may just be dead-cat):

12Z UKMET: way west (TCG 150 miles S of LA tip and moves NNW into LA) and pretty weak: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 27.0N 89.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.08.2024 120 27.0N 89.3W 1011 31 0000UTC 06.08.2024 132 28.6N 90.2W 1009 29 1200UTC 06.08.2024 144 30.0N 90.5W 1011 30 0000UTC 07.08.2024 156 30.8N 91.0W 1009 27 1200UTC 07.08.2024 168 31.5N 90.7W 1010 28

The 12Z JMA was also NE Gulf with landfall of weak low in FL panhandle. 0Z GFS a H in AL/W FL panhandle. So, 3 of 6 latest models’ runs in NE Gulf: UK, JMA, and GFS. My gut says this will end up an exclusively Gulf storm.

0Z UKMET: well W of 12Z run with it stalling in NE Gulf 50 miles S of Destin: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 24.2N 85.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.08.2024 108 24.2N 85.0W 1009 30 0000UTC 05.08.2024 120 25.9N 86.0W 1008 29 1200UTC 05.08.2024 132 28.1N 86.3W 1008 34 0000UTC 06.08.2024 144 28.8N 86.3W 1007 39 1200UTC 06.08.2024 156 29.5N 86.6W 1007 38 0000UTC 07.08.2024 168 29.7N 86.5W 1005 28

OISST based Nino 3.4 anomaly is still in a free fall. It just dropped another 0.1 and has now dropped a whopping 0.5C over the last 4 days to -0.33! That’s the fastest 4 day drop back to at least 2022! The equivalent RONI snapshot is quite possibly already approaching moderate Niña territory.

12Z Euro: forms at/near FL and turns NE/becomes a H; hits no land til Newfoundland.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower activity due to environmental dry air. Conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi

12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z but weaker (TD vs TS) with trip from Key West vicinity into far E Gulf followed by turn into N FL; run ends with it near Jacksonville NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 25.0N 81.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.08.2024 108 25.0N 81.8W 1008 29 1200UTC 04.08.2024 120 26.8N 83.2W 1007 30 0000UTC 05.08.2024 132 28.0N 83.4W 1007 26 1200UTC 05.08.2024 144 29.2N 83.3W 1010 24 0000UTC 06.08.2024 156 30.2N 81.6W 1011 26 1200UTC 06.08.2024 168 30.0N 80.9W 1012 30

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower activity due to dry air aloft. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

0Z Euro has a weak low on E coast of FL that moves offshore NE FL and strengthens to 1006 (possible TD) off SC moving toward NC at 240. So, Euro is closer to CMC/ICON than UKMET and nothing like GFS.

For C MDR system: 1) 0Z GFS turns left into Galveston as a H! 2) 0Z CMC forms off SE coast, center stays a little offshore SC/NC, and then becomes a H well offshore; ends run just off NE Nova Scotia as significant storm 3) 0Z ICON similar track to CMC but faster

For C MDR system: 0Z UKMET: large shift SW and much earlier TCG just N of C Cuba with TS near Key West then turns into FL Big Bend followed by NNE motion into SC/SE GA, NE into coastal SC and then ENE move to offshore CHS; TS nearly the entire track NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 22.8N 79.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.08.2024 108 23.3N 79.9W 1007 37 0000UTC 04.08.2024 120 24.8N 81.8W 1004 39 1200UTC 04.08.2024 132 26.9N 83.2W 1003 37 0000UTC 05.08.2024 144 28.9N 83.0W 1003 33 1200UTC 05.08.2024 156 31.4N 82.5W 1008 36 0000UTC 06.08.2024 168 32.8N 79.4W 1006 35

Do you remember that during that winter (01-02) the prelude to the GFS (the MRF) had a terrible cold bias? It often showed intense and sometimes historic cold in week 2 and especially after day 10. This often mislead JB as he wouldn’t discount the cold bias. I was reading and posting about it at the old WWBB.

These are at 360 and thus not for the same system.

And it looks like the sign for more blocking on this GBI is + rather than -.

There have now been 3 days in a row of large OISST Nino 3.4 anomaly drops. It has cooled a whopping 0.40C, the fastest since a similar 3 day cooling in early April and is now down to -0.23! The equivalent RONI snapshot is likely near -0.75 to -0.80.

The 12Z EPS is still active and is fairly similar to the 0Z/6Z with some hitting the E coast but more staying just offshore and way less activity in the Gulf vs the Atlantic.

I disagree with the first part as I think both places have a good number of excellent posters. Also, keep in mind that there's overlap of membership as it isn't a pure them vs us situation. When you slam them, you're also slamming some here. But I agree with what I bolded as the moderation there is much stronger. Regardless, I think it is better to peacefully coexist than to slam each other. This isn't like Dems vs Repubs thank goodness. The tropical wx forum community is bigger than any one BB.

I disagree and feel you’re generalizing. I think it is a mix of high and low quality there just like is the case most anywhere. Also, an unknown number of members here are also members there with some actively posting at both. They must be doing something right being that they’ve been around for over 20 years.

The 12Z Euro has a TD/TS (as strong as 1004-5 mb) off FL that then moves N and landfalls between Charleston and Georgetown on 8/6.