GaWx

12Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 17.4N 83.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 06.11.2024 156 17.4N 83.6W 1005 33 1200UTC 06.11.2024 168 18.3N 85.5W 1004 32

It has no TC.

12Z GEFS: about as active as any run yet regarding CoNUS landfalls with 12 of 30 (40%).

This verifying in the near term as well as in the means through the winter would not be the least bit surprising in the SE. There are always occasional BN periods (like the period we had earlier this month) and thus there will be some this winter (cold periods will keep stepping down over the next couple of months), but I’m expecting AN to dominate over BN in the SE until further notice thanks to La Niña and the very strong -PDO/WPacific marine heatwave. In addition the solar peak, if anything, may tend to limit high latitude blocking in the means. There have been only 6 -NAO winters over the last 35 and all were during low mean sunspots (<35). Currently they are in the high 100s. Regardless, winter is always my favorite season as it is easily the coldest along with the lowest dewpoints in the means and is the most interesting due to major swings at times. The warmest winter on record is so much better to me than the coolest summer. I have much more hope for a change during 2025-6, when the CANSIPS has recently been suggesting a Modoki El Nino to get established next summer fwiw.

1. It’s a small world. Were you a regular poster at WWBB or EasternUSWx? 2. Do you or does anyone else remember a frequent poster with last name MacDonald posting at ne.weather? 3. In the early 2000s and beyond I regularly watched JB’s Accuweather daily videos, which included his own (which sometimes included either of his very young children Garrett or Jessie) or Point Counter Point (which were often along with Ken Reeves, Bernie Rayno, Dr. Joe, or Elliot Abrams): https://www.accuweather.com/premium-pcp.asp And yes, I’m always thankful for the good memory(s) as was the case with this great entertainer:

Joe Bartlo: holy cow! I remember that name from ne.weather very well! I don’t recall details but do remember he was often involved in intense discussions/debates. I didn’t think he was a pro-met. Is that correct? I don’t recall him going to WWBB. May Joe RIP. I don’t remember Jack at ne.weather. Did Jack later go to WWBB and Eastern? I feel like I remember a Jack at Eastern, but don’t know it was the same guy. If it is, I think he also may have sadly passed. Also, I remember a “Jerry” being a frequent New England poster. Was that Weathafella?

1. Click upper right. 2. Click “account”. 3. Click “my attachments”. 4. Delete some of them, especially large ones.

Yeah, you being where you are could help at times more than those to your SE (assuming these are accurate of course). During weeks 3-6 the mean shows AN H5 hts dominating in/near the Aleutians, which typically teleconnects to AN H5 dominating in much of the E US (-PNA), especially Mid-Atlantic S. I like to see the opposite, BN/troughing dominating in the Aleutians, which is common during El Niño, since it typically teleconnects to BN hts dominating as +PNA is favored. Week 3 is below:

I agree there are some individuals who say that every year, but I’m talking about the general tone amongst the active posters during October. There are certain posters who are pessimistic on a semi-regular to regular basis. They are often doing that for trolling purposes though not all. I’ve found the general tone to be more optimistic than the models would suggest quite often. But that makes sense because in advance of winter many wx enthusiasts have had tendencies to be optimistic/hopeful. It is natural. I’m still not recalling a single autumn with a dominant pessimistic tone for winter. But if anyone can point to one, I’d like to know about it. It wasn’t 2001-2 for the reasons I stated. I’d say this autumn is the closest but even it has had some level of hope/optimism just like I’m claiming is the case every October, which is what got me talking about this. You said: “Is it ever a lost cause in October? No.” That is my main point. So I think we actually agree.

Euro Weeklies means are mainly mild in the E US through the entire run (goes through Dec 9th) fwiw. Consistent with that, the mean SPV (thick blue line) (climo is thick red line) is very strong through Dec 12th. If this verifies, JB is going to have a very hard time getting the cold Dec he keeps mentioning.

Whereas the 12Z Euro didn’t have a TC, the 12Z Euro ensemble is the most active yet by a good margin as regards landfalling member % on the CONUS. Out of 50 members, 9 (18%) hit FL within Nov 7-12 with even a 10th still in the GOM at 360 (a MH) aiming to hit FL ~Nov 13th. Out of these 9 that hit, 7 appear to be H strength with one a MH. Of the 9 that hit, 2 hit the Panhandle, 4 hit the Big Bend, and 3 hit SW FL (S of Tampa). There are also 2 that miss to the E but hit parts of the W Bahamas. In summary, this run is a bit ominous for W FL. By the way, I count a total of ~18 members (36%) with a TC on the run from whatever source.

The Euro (12Z) still has no TC. However, the CMC ens is about as active as any prior run and the GEFS is still pretty active though not as active as some earlier runs.

Does anyone here remember the ne.weather Usenet Newsgroup (was like a no-frills BB) from the late 90s through early 2000s? Did any of you post there? I did because this was just before Wright Wx BB and ne.weather was the only BB I was aware of at the time. @bluewave @donsutherland1

Thank you. But I don’t recall folks thinking that winter was cooked BEFORE it started. To the contrary there was plenty of optimism, partially fueled by the then very popular and well followed JB as mentioned by Ray and snowman. This was before he had had a chance to establish a long time reputation of a cold bias in winter in the E US. In addition, throughout that winter the GFS was repeatedly forecasting extreme cold, which fueled optimism into the winter. It had a severe cold bias then. I posted a lot about this bias on ne.weather (A Usenet newsgroup…anyone remember those BBs? Among others, Jerry (who later became “weathafella” on Wright Wx BB) was a regular poster there) and subsequently at the newly discovered aforementioned Wright Wx BB because many didn’t realize that reality. This very strong cold biased GFS was repeatedly shown by JB, which was a major reason he kept talking about “vodka” cold. All of that kept those two boards very hyped up into Jan. It wasn’t until at least late Jan and especially Feb that many were finally giving up. By the way, KATL had the most snow that winter since 1991-2 despite being AN by 2.5F. Their 4.6” was over twice the 2” normal. Edit: @weathafellaplease correct me if I’m getting you and another Jerry mixed up as being a regular poster on the ne.weather Usenet Newsgroup BB in the late 90s to early 2000s. Wasn’t that you?

With all due respect, I don’t believe because: 1) This is just a control run of the extremely unreliable CFS looking out 1-3 months, which is of virtually no value. 2) Worse yet is that WeatherBell versions of the CFS have been found to be substantially too cold in the E US vs other versions of the CFS including the NWS’ version, itself, and those from Tropical Tidbits. This has to be due to flawed Weather Bell algorithms and is nothing new. There have been numerous posts about this at AmericanWx though maybe not ITT. 3) Not only are these maps much colder than what the model really shows. But they’re also flawed in that they always have a cold spot in southern Lake Michigan and a warm spot over N Lake Michigan/Michigan.

Early look at 12Z GEFS suggests it will have about as many landfalling members on the Conus as recent runs. Update of 12Z GEFS Conus landfalls: 5 of 30 (17%)

Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.Forecaster Cangialosi

What Ray said/implied about the tendency for a lack of dominant polar blocking in winter when SSN is high (especially -NAO blocking since the 1980s per my research).

Fair enough. Thanks, Ray. But I’ll ask you and the readers in general: Can anyone point to a general E US winter discussion thread that as of late Oct was heavily dominated by pessimism for most of the E US? I’m sincerely wondering about this. I feel that some level of optimism or at least lack of pessimism is very normal at wx enthusiast BBs this far ahead of the start of winter even when models don’t look good. Maybe there is an exception or two. Please point them out if anyone knows.

Looking ahead of course. I challenge anyone with the time to go back to similar forecasting threads as of mid to late October and see. If anyone were to find something to the contrary, I’ll be happy to note that year as an exception. Maybe they’ll be found. But until that is done, I’m going to remain skeptical. Again, I’m not talking about a particular person but rather the general discussion/consensus. No point in going through 2023-4 as that clearly had tons of optimism to not at all be a lost cause for the bulk of the E US mild/low in wintry including by me. Even super-strong El Niño winters are usually assumed to have good potential for at least normal temps in the SE as well as a shot at a big winter storm. When I say “lost cause”, I mean both well above normal temps and well BN wintry precip in most of the E US including SE US/E Midwest. I think that will be hard to find as of this early. How can it ever already be a lost cause with the uncertainties that pretty much always exist?

Is it ever clearly a lost cause as of late Oct? I can’t remember a single late Oct when the winter was already determined to be a lost cause at this BB and any others. I don’t mean by any particular individual but rather based on the general consensus/discussion.

We will see about whether 300 is reached in the coming days as that is pretty rarely reached. If it were to exceed 290 on any day, it would be the highest in >20 years (not the hardest thing to do considering the prior weak cycle). We could easily top out today as nobody knows. It is high enough as it is! *Edited due to poor wording.

That was referring to yesterday’s SSN, which turned out to be the highest for any day since August 12th! So far today, it is even a good bit higher than that!

7 of 30 (23%) of the 18Z GEFS members landfall in the CONUS within Nov 6-10 from something forming in 5-7 days, either the lemon mentioned above (5) or something near PR (2). *Edit: The 0Z had 5 while the 6Z ended up with 7, with most of these from the current lemon.

Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Southwestern Caribbean Sea:A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of next week while it meanders or drifts northeastward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Berg