GaWx

Per Dr. Knabb: The strongest winds are currently on the NW-W side of the center due to how the strong southerly wind shear is interacting. Interesting.

Josh just posted from Okaloosa Island, FL:

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1515937730580171&id=iCyclone

New JMA H5 winter maps from NE forum post: this is what it appears to me that the maps are showing

DJF: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

Dec: slight +PNA, ~neutral EPO, slight -AO to neutral AO, slight +NAO

Jan: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

Does anyone disagree with my opinion on what these maps are showing for these indices?

 The last 10 days of the PDO have had a decent rise overall though nothing extreme:

8 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

One thing I do like is stating "tropical storm conditions possible."  Yet the actual forecast is for 15 to 25 mph *sustained* winds.  That is well below the threshold.  Last I checked, tropical conditions are sustained 39 mph or more.  So there is hedging here is excessive IMHO.   Gusts to TS force are not the same as sustained TS force.  They are conflating things.  I see this a lot.

And really, how often does TCL and esp. ATL, get sustained winds of 39 mph or more?  It is practically unheard of.  So climo comes into play here.  It would have to be an exceptional event for such winds, but Isaias as a hurricane and going ET are not by all forecasts.   This is not like Helene from 2 years ago.

Just b/c something has a non-zero chance of occurring does not mean you explicitly mention it in a forecast.  Once again, hedging and inflating reasonable risk.  Wording matters as to how ppl will react, and then you get into the issue of things being cancelled and shutdown *way* too much for a run-of-the-mill event.

Also, Isaias will no longer be a TC by the time ATL gets sig impact, and perhaps even TCL. so their wording is incorrect.  They should be saying "gale force winds", not tropical storm conditions. 

This is a slippery slope.  Almost every winter storm on the E Coast has winds of TS strength, but you do not call them tropical storm winds!

They should be headlining a wind advisory or high wind warning, not mentioning tropical in this case
for TCL and ATL.
 

Thanks.
Whereas for TCL they’ve got a TS warning, they didn’t ever predict TS conditions for ATL. Instead they have a high wind warning:

20 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

That's a good point.  TIMING is everything!  But I see far too often a wx event is taken as "all day" and so events that will clearly be before or after  sig storm impacts are done and do not be to be cancelled.  I mean, you now get *indoor* events cancelled for just some typical wind and rain now.  Really?

We can fine-tune forecasts better than ever now w/ models like the HRRR, RRFS, and HAFS, so we do not have to just issue a generic, blanket forecast. esp for the short-range.  Having this capability saves an enormous amount of $$ and allows business and commerce to function better.

It reminds me of something years ago.  One evening, I went out to get pizza, and when I picked up my order, the person said "it's been slow tonight b/c of snow forecast!"  You know what the forecast was?  1-3" of snow starting *after* midnight.  So my previous posits about business and commerce being impacts is valid, and it hurts revenue for many businesses, big and small.  You see how incessant hype and not quantifying risks/threats  properly are detrimental to society.

Cancellation of a major sport event is non-trivial as to costs, and it goes far beyond just that single event.  They have to reschedule and that has downstream impacts often to the entire league.
I often ask myself, what if the SB was in MSY or MIA, and there was a MDT or HIGH risk for svr wx for that day?  I would not want to be the one to make the decision!  In this case, the ante is extremely high on both sides!  Actually, I do recall a case like this.  In 2004, the Indy 500 was held despite a HIGH risk svr and a sig tor outbreak was likely.  And when the event was over and people were leaving the area, there were tornadoes occurring in the IND area not more than 5 mi away!
 

 
 The main issue some of us have is the double standard of concern in Tuscaloosa vs virtually no concern in ATL (at least earlier…maybe this will change). The forecasted conditions for during the GT/Duke game in ATL Sat. afternoon are far worse than those for even the tailgating period (6 hrs before kickoff) in Tuscaloosa. Furthermore, the forecast for ATL is actually quite a big deal, which along with thunderstorm chances has a high wind warning and thus would be far worse than the typical breeziness of a Miller A:

3 hours ago, sakau2007 said:

i respectfully disagree with you. the 3 games i am aware of closest to the storm's impacts are Georgia/Alabama in Tuscaloosa (storm will be effectively over by kickoff), Georgia Tech/Duke in Atlanta (breezy and rainy, but no big deal in the whole scheme of things) and Vanderbilt/Ole Miss in Nashville (similar to Atlanta, with probably less overall impact, and less tornado threat).
 

 
 The point some of us have been making is the double standard being applied regarding the concern for the attendees in Tuscaloosa vs that for those in Atlanta:

 Tuscaloosa: SATURDAY  
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS, COOLER  
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO  
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

Atlanta: SATURDAY  
SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY  
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

—————

 As one can see, the forecast is actually much worse for the afternoon gametime in ATL for Duke/GT than it is not just for the evening gametime in Tuscaloosa but even during the tailgating time in Tuscaloosa well before the game even starts!

 So, gusts to 50 with possible thunderstorms/heavy rain and even a slight chance for a tornado in ATL for the game itself vs gusts only to 30, much lighter rain, and no thunderstorms in Tuscaloosa during the entire PM tailgating period well before the game even starts!

 @PhiEaglesfan712@vortex95

12 hours ago, cardinalland said:

The hurricane was declared as such at 11:30pm eastern on 10/7 after a Hurricane Hunters pass. So it’s a little dicey.

 

Of course there’s a good chance 1905 had a hurricane earlier in their season that we didn’t detect

For those who didn’t realize it, 1905’s very late 1st on record H was similarly powerful to Isaias with it peaking as a MH (cat 3) and that was also during El Niño.

*Edited: it was not the last storm of the season at genesis but was when it degenerated below TC status at its end.

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If that's the case, then there's no way they play the Georgia-Alabama game as scheduled.

ATL’s looking worse right now at Duke/GT gametime than Tuscaloosa’s looking even during most of afternoon well before kickoff. Why with all of the warranted concern for GA/AL are the media hardly, if any, talking about any concern about Duke-Georgia Tech in ATL? Can you explain this double standard? Well, I realize way more interest and of course $ are involved with GA/AL, but that’s beside the point of concern about human beings wherever they are.

59 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Tornado threat for AL/GA will be significant as well. Atlanta will be under the gun from both strong easterly winds and the tornado threat on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk on Saturday for the area currently under a slight from the SPC if things hold serve.

 So, with all of the talk about the safety of folks in Tuscaloosa for GA/FL (which I agree is warranted), why doesn’t the media seem to care much about the safety of folks going to Bobby Dodd Sat afternoon, which will likely have worse conditions than Tuscaloosa in the mid to late afternoon (gametime in ATL) because worst conditions at Tuscaloosa should end by early afternoon. This is such a silly/stupid double standard.

——————

FFC’s not playing around:

.FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING... 
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING... 

——————
SATURDAY
SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 
UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

Josh is in Pensacola as he chose Isaias over Simon but wishes there were two of him so they could chase both lol:
 

https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2108365382130045125
 

27 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

No, Cpc uses roni instead of oni because climate change was interfering with the enso signal they made a purposeful effort to remove cc. In fact climate change probably weakened this el nino by keeping the wpac warmer then it normally would be during this strong of a nino  that likely prevented as strong ( even if its still be very strong and in many ways record breaking) of a eastward shift in deep convection which has thus meant that while the trade winds have been extremely weak or reversed they are running only slightly ahead of 1997 despite nino 3.4 itself running much higher. Now did climate change raise nino 3.4 sst sure, but because the tropics have warmed the sst threshold for deep convection ( and thus heat distribution thru latent heating) has gone up meaning cc does not mean more heat is being disturbed in the main way enso actually impacts our weather. 

 I cannot overemphasize how important what I bolded above is. This idea is well explained at the link below, which I recently posted:

Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like it's struggling. What else do you expect from #2026?

That’s good news if it holds for those threatened. Hopefully shear will do its thing and keep it struggling. But it looks like it will probably still be a hurricane when it comes in and thus be no picnic for them.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The September statewide data for Texas is now in. The heat of September 2026 made a mockery of the State's prior monthly record. September 2026 finished with a statewide mean temperature of 84.1°. 2023, the prior record, was left in the distant dust with a relatively cool 81.8°. September 2019 was further back in third with a mean temperature of 81.5°.

Do you have it for OK?

5 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

The hurricane was declared as such at 11:30pm eastern on 10/7 after a Hurricane Hunters pass. So it’s a little dicey.

 

Of course there’s a good chance 1905 had a hurricane earlier in their season that we didn’t detect

Technically according to this image, it was a H by 0Z on 10/8 in 1905 or 7PM EST on 10/7. So, that means 2026 was a little later if you go by this:

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought we tied the record of 10/8 from 1851.

No, it’s the latest 1st H since 1851, inclusive. That’s the first year of these tracks at the NHC site.

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

But this is the latest forming first hurricane of season ever?

Yeah although 1905 was about as late:

Tropical Storm watches well inland in AL/GA:

 

This is for way up in C AL including Birmingham and Tuscaloosa:

**TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA** 

* STORM INFORMATION:   - ABOUT 710 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM AL OR ABOUT 640   MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY AL   - 23.7N 90.2W   - STORM INTENSITY 85 MPH   - MOVEMENT EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH    

SITUATION OVERVIEW   ------------------     HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF   COAST, MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40   TO 50 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN THE   POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. RAINFALL   AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES   WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN   AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY   DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ALONG AND EAST OF THE   TRACK ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF   INTERSTATE 65. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Can you tell me what were other times that a hurricane formed in that general area after start of October?

Thanks 

Plenty. You can find them here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
 
...ISAIAS STRONGER...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION 
TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 90.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

————————

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Isaias is strengthening in an environment of moderate vertical wind 
shear. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that the central pressure continues to fall and the 
maximum winds are now near 75 kt. The center of the hurricane is 
near the southwestern side of a Central Dense Overcast feature, and 
some convective banding features are evident over the eastern 
portion of the circulation. Additional aircraft reconnaissance 
missions are scheduled for today, tonight, and Friday, so we will 
have close monitoring of the intensity of the system up until 
landfall.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isais 
continues on a generally east-northward track with an initial 
motion of about 060/9 kt. During the next 36 hours, the hurricane 
should gradually turn toward the northeast and north as it moves 
between a ridge extending from the Bahamas across the Florida 
Peninsula and a zonally-oriented mid-level trough near the 
northwestern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of the 
hurricane is forecast to move across the east-central to 
northeastern Gulf coast in 36-42 hours. Thereafter, the weakening 
cyclone should move over the southeastern United States bringing 
strong winds well inland. The track guidance has not changed much 
for this advisory cycle and the official forecast is similar to that 
of the previous advisory.

The intensity forecast up to landfall is somewhat challenging. 
On the one hand, the hurricane should move over waters of high 
oceanic heat content and within a fairly moist air mass through 
tomorrow. On the other hand, the SHIPS model input parameters show 
a significant increase in vertical wind shear, particularly when 
Isais nears the coast. Regarding, the shorter-term intensity 
forecast, a recent WSFM microwave satellite image at 37 GHz 
frequency shows a closed ring around the eye. This is typically a 
harbinger of rapid intensification. The 12-hour forecast does show 
a relatively large increase in strength, but in view of the 
expected stronger shear in 24-36 hours, some decrease in intensity 
is indicated as Isaias approaches the coast. Regardless, Isaias is 
expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and 
gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the 
anticipated expansion of the wind field and accelerating forward 
speed of the storm.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 23.7N  90.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 24.9N  89.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 27.1N  87.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 29.6N  87.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 32.3N  87.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  11/0000Z 34.6N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  11/1200Z 36.5N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

 So did forky, who has special privileges and staff powers for who knows what reason, just remove the Super El Nino banter thread that I posted a link to 30 minutes earlier? Or did he just remove my ability to view it?

 It all of the sudden now shows this when I view the link to the Banter thread that I provided in my prior post:

Sorry, we can't show this content because you do not have permission to see it.

Beautiful! Did anyone of note predict this? At a minimum, the Arctic ice news isn’t all bad right now and that’s putting it mildly:

 The link below is to the banter thread, which hasn’t had a post since Sept 28th while there have been dozens of near worthless banter posts clogging up this thread with poop since then making it harder for readers to find the much higher quality posts. How does that make sense?

12Z UKMET is at its strongest of any run so far at landfall with 979 mb at 12Z on Sat at AL/MS border. Then it heads N along the border followed by NNW/NW into MS. The center is in NW MS as of GA/AL gametime. Tornadoes look like a problem in much of N FL/AL/GA while heavy rain and strong winds hit N MS/Memphis area Sat afternoon/evening due to the tightest gradient in that area at that time. Interesting.

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

it’s giving you the historical ERA 5 reanalysis average up until 5/1/27. You’ll notice all the lines converge together starting between march and april because a) the PV becomes weaker and less variable by the spring and b) models tend to default to climatology very far out. So the ensemble forecast mean (black) will start to closely match the hindcast climate mean (red) and ERA5 mean (blue) between March and April. 

 

Also it’s important to note the red line being lower than the blue line between Dec and March. What that’s telling you is that when the model tried to reconstruct a hindcast of past years, it was forecasting a weaker PV than the actual ERA5 reanalysis. So it’s saying the model has a weak PV bias in its forecasts during the heart of winter. 

Thanks. So, what does all of this say in regard to the ECMWF’s forecasted weaker than avg SPV in Jan/Feb? Is that a legit signal of a likely weaker than normal SPV then?