GaWx

54 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Hazel in Oct 1954 was a rare beast.

First, it is strongest, farthest N HU landfall for so late in the season the CONUS on record (115 kt).

Second, it likely the quickest ET transition for an intense landfall CONUS HU.  HURDAT2 shows it ET only 2.5 hr after landfall!

Third, its phase w/ a strong baroclinic trough was about as ideal as you could get, similar to Fiona in Sep 2022 I bet.  It still had sustained winds of 70 kt when it was at 40N/77W, which is extraordinary.  It was racing N at 42 kt once inland as well.

A truly exceptional event, similar to Sandy, but for wind more potent.  So is it any surprise such crazy winds occurred so far N?  Not only NYC recorded its record gust of 98 kt, but also DC as well (85 kt).

It's why I say events like Sandy are not unprecedented or really or not as uncommon as portrayed.  Hazel, the 1938 New England HU, and Agnes in 1972, were much like this, getting picked up strongly and eventually phasing in w/ an potent baroclinic trough that would have resulted in a sig storm even w/o the HU present.  And they each ended up setting the big records differently.  Hazel and 1938 was about wind, Agnes was about rain/flooding, and Sandy was about storm surge.

Isn’t 1938 also about a very high storm surge?

18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Windshield wiper. GFS finally onboard with it too, tho weak and offshore 

 The 18Z GFS came well W and is thus the most threatening GFS run yet by far to the E coast with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE.

 Back to 12Z, the JMA has it for its first time and hits much of the SE solidly with this with much of the Carolinas and S VA getting a very beneficial 2”+ of rain the next 8 days:

18Z GFS is the most threatening GFS yet to the E coast by far with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE. 

 The 12Z JMA has it for its first time and hits the SE US pretty potently with a very beneficial 2”+ for much of the Carolinas and S VA!

 Edit: 18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

 The NAO is higher on today’s GEFS mean vs that of two days ago:

two days ago: peaking 10/15 at +1.0 and then dropping to -1 

Today peaks not til 10/19 and with that being up at +1.3 and then drops only to -0.7 followed by a quick bounce that gets back up to -0.2 on 10/27 vs it still being down at -0.9 on 10/27 two days ago

@Stormchaserchuck1

 The 12Z Euro still has the E coast storm next week. So, currently the 12Z run non-AI main global models with it are the CMC (its first time) and the Euro (3rd time in a row at 0Z/12Z as 6Z/18Z have yet to have it, which I could tell because 144 hours was far out enough to tell).

 Also, the 12Z Euro AIFS still has it.

 My stance has been and still is:

-whereas CC/AGW has its clearly detrimental effects and thus I’m not happy about it (plus I selfishly prefer cold over warmth way down here in the deep SE), its effects aren’t all bad and that’s naturally largely being ignored by the extreme doomsayers. I‘m referring mainly to the increased greening of the globe that has occurred and also the reduced number of deaths from cold, which has killed many more than heat per organizations that compile the stats even though the balance could change if it gets hot enough, of course

-there very well could be some negative feedback loops that aren’t being modeled well as regards how much warmer it will ultimately get, which if true would mean that the worst case scenarios aren’t realistic

Full rundown of 12Z main global non-AI for the possible E coast storm next week excluding the not yet released Euro:

The 12Z UKMET, after 3 full runs in a row with an E coast “tropical cyclone”, has no TC and not even an E coast storm as the non-tropical low forms well offshore (300 miles) and then moves out NE from there to just NW of Bermuda.

12z Icon is much further offshore than its 0Z with little E coast effect.

12Z GFS is a bit closer (similar to the 0Z) but like for the 0Z the low still is far enough out to have little effect on the E coast as it then moves out.

OTOH, the 12Z CMC is its first run with effects on the E coast with it getting caught 300 miles SE of the Carolinas and then then coming back WSW to Jacksonville on 10/23. That’s now an extreme outlier pending what the 12Z Euro shows.

Edit: 12Z Euro and Euro-AI still have it.

Full rundown of 12Z main global non-AI for the possible E coast storm next week excluding the not yet released Euro:

The 12Z UKMET, after 3 full runs in a row with an E coast “tropical cyclone”, has no TC and not even an E coast storm as the non-tropical low forms well offshore (300 miles) and then moves out NE from there to just NW of Bermuda.

12z Icon is much further offshore than its 0Z with little E coast effect.

12Z GFS is a bit closer (similar to the 0Z) but like for the 0Z the low still is far enough out to have little effect on the E coast as it then moves out.

OTOH, the 12Z CMC is its first run with effects on the E coast with it getting caught 300 miles SE of the Carolinas and then then coming back WSW to Jacksonville on 10/23. That’s now an extreme outlier pending that the 12Z Euro shows.

 No CMC has had any storm close enough to the E coast to have much, if any, effect on the E coast. The Euro has had 2 with it (12Z yest and 0Z today) with interestingly all of the shorter runs in between (6Z/18Z), which go out far enough to tell, having no E coast storm. OTOH, the UKMET’s last 3 full runs have had it and the newest (6Z) suggests it would also have it based on the last map (hour 66). The first Icon with it any effect was yesterday’s 12Z with the 18Z at least a close call. The 0Z was by far the most ominous with it coming back W at the end. It also had it but then the 6Z had it further offshore though it’s hard to tell if it would have come back close enough to have much effect in the NE. I’m guessing no. It appears based on hour 162 that the 12Z Icon won’t have much effect on even the OB. Edit: confirmed

47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

So are we gonna have a nor Easter this weekend or is it going to be beautiful? Models have flipped and flopped (besides GFS which has held firm with no storm)

 Or it could be both depending on one’s location, of course. The NC Outer Banks could have large effects with most of the rest of the SE being beautiful.

And we can add the 0Z Euro, too, with a full-blown very intense storm (12Z Euro also had it)!

 It’s also on the 0Z UKMET, the 3rd run in a row with this one a little stronger with a min of 1003 mb/max of 52 knots/60 mph. It forms off of S SC and then moves N into NC OB area followed by a move E offshore and then a S drift as it weakens:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 32.4N 76.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2026 72 32.4N 76.0W 1010 42
1200UTC 18.10.2026 84 34.0N 75.1W 1008 48
0000UTC 19.10.2026 96 32.5N 75.9W 1003 52
1200UTC 19.10.2026 108 34.2N 75.2W 1005 45
0000UTC 20.10.2026 120 36.2N 75.6W 1004 40
1200UTC 20.10.2026 132 36.6N 74.7W 1006 35
0000UTC 21.10.2026 144 36.4N 73.1W 1007 33
1200UTC 21.10.2026 156 35.0N 72.7W 1009 34
0000UTC 22.10.2026 168 32.7N 73.4W 1012 35

I’m assuming this is tropical on the 0Z Icon: holy cow!

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You may have already observed that correlation

John, thanks.

 Are you referring to the late Sept of ‘26 nor’easter? If so, I was just counting ones in October though I realize it was within a week of Oct and thus very likely largely connected to the very strong Nino. But I didn’t check Sept for any of those 9 analogs.

 So, if we count that one, does that reduce the chance for a 2nd E coast storm later this month? I never found two really notable E coast storms for any of the 9 analog years in Oct, itself. I suspect that may be more than just randomness. Maybe one strong E coast storm late Sept/Oct is enough to sort of calm down the atmosphere and prevent a 2nd one? What do you think? If so and if we count the late Sep nor’easter, maybe that would reduce the chance for another for the rest of Oct?

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT and JB like this threat for the coast.

 Based on 100% of the 9 very strong Nino analogs back to 1877-8 having a near E coast (SE and/or NE) storm of some kind in October, I’m leaning to cyclogenesis next week close enough to affect parts of the E coast. This could be a nor’easter, a TC, or hybrid. These include

-early Oct 2015 highly unusual complex setup associated with a combo of well offshore Joaquin and a SE US ET upper low/stationary front resulting in devastating SC flooding rain

-late Oct 1991 “Perfect Storm” hybrid in NE

-late Oct 1982 strong nor’easter centered on mid-Atlantic that lead to a very rare Oct combo of a long duration of continuous rain, strong winds, and cold (40s)

-early Oct 1972 very strong nor’easter that was worst Hatteras to NYC (both ~4”+ rain)

-early Oct 1957 strong nor’easter hit Hatteras/lower mid-Atlantic hardest

—————

Edit: @Typhoon TipI think was pointing out that the late Sep ‘26 nor’easter may have been close enough to Oct to count as the ‘26 version. I’m waiting for him to clarify. But if so, I do wonder if that reduces the chance for one next week since I found only one in Oct for each of the 9 years. Hmmm.

 Any thoughts anyone?

 The 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro AIFS, and Icon all have a storm of some sort have a storm off the E coast next week. I’m noting this because there’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one:

-1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS:

-1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12:

-1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf

-1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS:

-1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf

-1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf

-1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain):

1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf


2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html

——————

 So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Uh oh. October snow. Winter canceled?  
 

A little skeptical, but it’s still an area climatologically favored. Euro legacy has it too now. Ensembles don’t really bring it up here though.

 
 There’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one:

-1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS:



-1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12:


-1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf

-1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS:


-1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf

-1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf

1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain):


1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf

2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html



 So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

On 10/13/2026 at 9:17 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

I dont know if Ive ever seen an ensemble that dry for that long. GFS is practically rainless across the SE for the entire run. Where is our Nino STJ? We got very lucky to get the tropical system, most all the region got at least 1" of rain especially worst drought areas

On 10/13/2026 at 9:53 AM, olafminesaw said:

Yeah it's pretty comical

It is, indeed, looking dry in the SE the next ~2 weeks. The Euro Weeklies have been showing this for a number of runs. However, those same EW for 6 straight runs have also been showing the likely El Niño induced polar opposite (wetter than normal) for every one of the subsequent 4 weeks ending the Sun of Thanksgiving Week (as far out as they currently go):

Dry 10/19-25:

Mainly slightly wet 10/26-11/1:

Slightly wet 11/2-8:

Wet 11/9-15:

Slightly wet 11/16-22:

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Thanks, Anthony. One thing I’ll say is that there’s nothing unusual about having a W QBO during a very strong El Niño as:

-1957, 1982, and 2015 had it

-1965, 1972, 1991, and 1997 didn’t

17 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Euro and AI Euro ensembles are switching to -NAO around Oct 22, fwiw, after +NAO for several weeks

GEFS also sees this:

 The most similar El Niño Octobers to this forecast of a solid -NAO in late Oct after a mainly +NAO in early to mid Oct are 1976 and 1963 with 2002 the next most similar.

@Stormchaserchuck1

1 hour ago, Keith Central PA said:

You left out December 72 and 97 two strong ninos.which were above normal but noting drastic like 82 and 15

Thanks. I didn’t include 72 and 97 because they were during a different part of the QBO cycle.

72: at the end of a negative phase (far different)

97: start of a new negative phase ( not nearly as far off as 72 but still off enough to already go <0 in Jan and I’m expecting +8 through Feb. All of the other 5 analogs were +QBO through Feb.)

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we have a +QBO, then November (at least the beginning of the month) is going to be very warm in the Eastern US. The last 3 +QBO years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all featured record warmth in the early part of November.

 It’s not a matter of “if” because it’s a certainty. Also that favors E US warmth in December as @snowman19has emphasized. Dec of 2015, 2006, 1987, 1982, and 1957 were all mild in the E US (other than 1957 being NN in the SE).

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is being updated:
30MB:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

50MB:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

Thanks! I just got on my PC and can see the updating table. For whatever reason, when I do it on my phone, it requires a download of the data. I don’t get why they can’t have it more accessible like for the PSL link.

 Anyway, this NOAA 30 mb update for Mar 26+ is following the general pattern of the ATMOS Hub values along with the sometimes slightly faster transition to positive phase in addition to sig. higher amp on both ends as I mentioned. So this essentially confirms what ATMOS Hub showed us. Therefore due to the easier access to the ATMOS Hub data  on my cell, I’m probably going to use ATMOS Hub at least as often as NOAA’s now harder to see on cellphone data. Plus I like ATMOS’ excellent graphic showing the entire atmosphere and how it progresses with the QBO cycle possibly even during mid month thus giving us a little bit of heads up that the monthly tables don’t show:

CPC vs ATMOS (rounded)

Mar -17 vs -31

Apr -9 vs -7

May -2 vs +6

June +4 vs +8

July +9 vs +13

Aug +11 vs +12

Sep +13 vs +18

On 10/13/2026 at 9:17 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

I dont know if Ive ever seen an ensemble that dry for that long. GFS is practically rainless across the SE for the entire run. Where is our Nino STJ? We got very lucky to get the tropical system, most all the region got at least 1" of rain especially worst drought areas

Thanks

1. It being the driest time of year means it isn’t all that unusual.

2. Oct is typically too early for the Nino STJ moisture as that usually doesn’t get going til close to Nov or often not til Nov, itself. That’s what the Euro Weeklies are suggesting.