GaWx
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Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHESTropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep
convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and
limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant.
Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the
center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported
that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this
afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the
south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern
semicircle.
There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which
indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved
very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial
motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two
mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering
currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to
become the dominant steering influence which should induce a
west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction,
on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.
Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical
wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will
increase during the next couple of days. This should limit
intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep
convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the
shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the
interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the
forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high
side of the model guidance.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Pasch-
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12Z UKMET is slightly stronger than 0Z with it showing 35 knots/barely TS this time before it dissipates by hour 60 moving W into LA, a similar track to 0Z/6Z runs. It then comes out S of LA but in a weakened state below TD status as it heads into the Galveston vicinity:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 85.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.4N 85.5W 1008 23
0000UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.8N 85.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.7N 86.3W 1005 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 86.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 22.07.2026 48 30.1N 87.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 23.07.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING-
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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Here comes the +IOD….there are no road blocks ahead to stop this thing from strengthening and strengthening
And with the projected TC forecasts, the WWBs and DWKWs are just going to keep comingDo you have a guess for the +IOD peak?
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15 hours ago, GaWx said:
Don’t forget that CDAS is slightly cold biased. But this chart isn’t relative. Relative OISST is in the +1.6-+1.7 range.
I’m guessing that tomorrow’s weekly relative Nino 3.4 release will have it at +1.5 with +1.6 on the high end.
The weeklies keep coming in lower than my guesses as Nino 3.4 came in at only +1.4 for last week vs my +1.5 guess. This is surprisingly low when considering that it is OISST based. It is for the prior week averaged out, but still +1.4 looks low when comparing to this relative OISST graph. The avg of last week, the last 7 dots on the image below, is actually ~+1.6!
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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
The weekly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly rose to +3.6°C during the week centered around July 15. Only the 1982-83 and 1997-98 super El Niño events saw comparable or higher values. The last such anomaly occurred during the week centered around December 24, 1997 (+3.6°C). A strong El Niño is ongoing.
Thanks, Don. It’s very warm there, no doubt, indicative of a strong Nino.
I prefer to compare the relative weeklies for the best apples to apples comparison to the strength of past events due to the GW effect on tropical oceans skewing the straight ENSO anomalies higher in more recent years:
For the week centered on 7/15/26, the relative region 1+2 anomaly was at +2.8, a rise from the +2.6 of the prior week and the highest yet for this event.
How does +2.8 compare to past events back to 1982 in mid July?
2023: +2.8
2015: +2.3
1997: +3.7
1982: +0.5
So, going back to 1982, 2026’s +2.8 is tied with 2023 for 2nd warmest anomaly in mid-July on a relative basis with 1997 being the warmest:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
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20 hours ago, snowman19 said:
Completely agree. IMO this is going to easily be the strongest super El Niño in history on the RONI and the traditional ONI for both peak and trimonthly average. I also think the August MEI goes above +2 and it would not surprise me at all if we tie or exceed the strongest MEI month on record sometime this fall or winter (*which I believe is +2.9 back during the 1982-83 super Niño*). I’m sure @GaWx has the actual MEI stats for that
Correct, Adam. 1982-3 bimonthlies peaked at +2.9. Get this, that peak wasn’t til April-May of 1983. Although April-May is very late even for the MEI peak, it does sometimes peak sig. later than the 3.4 SST anomaly peak. Why? My guess is atmospheric lag vs SSTa peaks since MEI has an atmospheric portion. There’s nothing better to illustrate atmospheric lag than to look at SOI lows for strong Nino events per the monthlies:
Event……..SOI low….SSTa peak…Lag (months)
1982-3……Feb ‘83…….Dec ‘82……..21991-2…….Jan ‘92…….Jan ‘92…….0
1997-8……Mar ‘98……..Nov ‘97…..4
2009-10….Feb ‘10………Dec ‘09….2
2015-6…...Jan ‘16………Nov ‘15…..2
2023-4…..Feb ‘24………Dec ‘23….2So, avg lag from SSTa high to SOI low for these 6 strong events was 2 months.
MEI peaked late in 1982-3, 1997-8, and 2009-10 (although it didn’t in 2015-6 and 2023-4).
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Jim Cantore thinks it is on its way to becoming Bertha:
“Visible showing a nice twist with TD2 circulation center. There is lightning within the southern flank of that circulation. On its way to TS Bertha status.”
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For the first time in 7 runs, the UKMET doesn’t have a TS from this: it dissipates in the NW GOM similarly to the prior run
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 84.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.0N 84.9W 1009 23
1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 28.5N 85.5W 1008 22
0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.3N 85.7W 1006 27
1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.9N 85.6W 1005 32
0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 29.7N 86.1W 1005 31
1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 30.3N 86.8W 1008 28
0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N 90.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.07.2026 84 28.5N 90.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 24.07.2026 96 28.7N 91.7W 1010 24
1200UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.8N 93.4W 1012 28
0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING-
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On 7/17/2026 at 7:39 PM, snowman19 said:
Thanks, Adam.
For the period May-July, we’re likely headed to ~-22 avg SOI. One has to go all of the way back to 1905 to find any year at -22 or lower for May-July! Then it was -27. But that was a second year Niño (moderate). The only other one was in 1896, a strong Nino. That was at -28. Per Eric Webb’s tables, 1895-6 barely missed a low end weak Nino because there were only 4 tri-months in a row of +0.5 surrounded by +0.3s! So, 1896-7 was practically a 2nd year Nino. So, 2025-6 with 2024-5 having been La Niña is in uncharted territory going back to the mid-1800s as regards the extremely intense summer -SOI.-
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17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
El Nino's effects do propagate to the Stratosphere and the Strat winds are opposite +QBO vs El Nino so it is possible there is some correlation
No other year on record was nearly as wacky as 15-17 QBO-wise. 48-53 maybe couldn't get out of -QBO and that had a string of La Nina's.
Chuck,
I don’t follow you.
Do you see anything that could prevent a +QBO from starting ~now or in autumn and then going through winter? If so, what? I’ve been banking on it based on the common ~24 month pattern.
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37 minutes ago, raindancewx said:
The 2015-16 El Nino screwed up the progression of the QBO if I remember correctly.
Did anyone ever figure out why and if it could happen again? I would think its decent odds for this year with this El Nino, even though the QBO is off a bit from where it was then.
How do you know that the El Niño is what caused this? Couldn’t it just be a coincidence? I’m suspicious of that because I couldn’t find even one similar occurrence with any of the other super-Nino events!
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19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
+2 for Nino 3.4?
Don’t forget that CDAS is slightly cold biased. But this chart isn’t relative. Relative OISST is in the +1.6-+1.7 range.
I’m guessing that tomorrow’s weekly relative Nino 3.4 release will have it at +1.5 with +1.6 on the high end.
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1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
I think they are re-adjusting some of the daily SOI's. I remember it being higher in recent days. This is quite a streak:
19 Jul 2026 1013.04 1016.50 -27.15 -27.71 -19.78 18 Jul 2026 1013.56 1016.50 -23.95 -27.02 -19.48 17 Jul 2026 1013.50 1016.95 -27.09 -26.34 -19.15 16 Jul 2026 1013.27 1018.25 -36.50 -25.58 -18.73 15 Jul 2026 1012.10 1017.65 -40.01 -24.45 -18.16 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66 10 Jul 2026 1013.16 1015.45 -19.94 -22.84 -16.52 9 Jul 2026 1011.59 1014.45 -23.45 -22.68 -16.60 8 Jul 2026 1008.90 1015.20 -44.63 -22.32 -16.71 7 Jul 2026 1009.02 1015.35 -44.81 -21.68 -16.58 6 Jul 2026 1011.31 1015.45 -31.33 -21.34 -16.28 5 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.25 -35.46 -21.21 -16.03 4 Jul 2026 1010.84 1015.20 -32.69 -21.02 -15.72 90-day SOI hasn't been -20 since 1998.. first biggest El Nino event of the 2000s.
That July 16th Darwin 1018.25 mb is its 2nd highest on record back to 1991. The highest is only barely higher, 1018.35 (mid-2004).
*Corrected
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31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
Again to reiterate, a Winter east vs west-based El Nino
Thanks, Chuck. So, temps are clearly colder with W vs E based. Is some of this because the strongest El Niño winters tend to have warmer 1+2?
However, with regard to wintry precip, itself, the SE appears to have done a bit better with C based (3.4 warmest) than W based (4 warmest) if I’m recalling my research correctly. -
1 hour ago, bluewave said:
My statement was correct. The winter of 2025-2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the CONUS.
While it’s difficult to find a perfect match, the forecasts were close to a 1994-1995 outcome which was the 12th warmest winter for the CONUS.
So for the CONUS the seasonal forecasts were too cold due to the extreme nature of the warmth out West.
I kept the scales in (C )for a direct comparison to the ECMWF forecast.
Rankings and departures out West were much higher than the East
Verification in (C)
I realize ‘25-6 DJF was mild overall in the CONUS on a geographic basis. I’m not disputing that. But I think you’re being a bit too harsh on model performance for 25-6.
The winter averaged 37.1F, which was 3.1F warmer than the Euro’s climo base of 1993-2016 and 3.0F warmer than the CFSv2’s climo base of 1991-2020. The forecasted mean anomaly for both the 8/1/25 Euro and the mid-July ‘25 avg CFSv2 was ~+2F for the CONUS on a geog. area basis or ~36F. This was actually a bit warmer than the 35.6 of 1994-5. Thus, the models were only ~1F too warm on a geog. area basis.
Here are the warmest CONUS winters since 1895-6 (excluding 2025-6):
37.5 in 2023-4
36.8 in 2015-6
36.5 in 1999-00
36.4 in 1991-2
36.3 in 2011-2
36.3 in 1998-9
36.0 in 1999-00
Thus, with their ~36F progged mean, these 2 models were essentially predicting about the 7th-8th warmest CONUS winter since 1895-6. It came out 2nd. I think that’s pretty darn good.
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
The models were too cold with their 2025-2026 CONUS forecast since the magnitude of the Western warmth was significantly greater than the cold in the East. Just by looking at any of the seasonal models would not have given any indication of the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS.
Mid July ‘25 CFSv2 2m fcast for winter 25-6:
8/1/25 Euro 2m fcast for winter 25-6:
Actual 2m for winter 25-6:
So, these 2 were much too warm in the E US, pretty close central, and not nearly warm enough W, especially in/near Rockies. W coast though was fairly close.
*Edited for typo
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12Z UKMET: 6th run in row with TS but dissipates off TX
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 85.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 27.1N 85.2W 1012 22
0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 27.9N 84.9W 1009 22
1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 27.6N 85.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.2N 85.5W 1005 30
1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.8N 85.7W 1004 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 29.3N 86.0W 1003 35
1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 29.4N 87.1W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 29.2N 88.2W 1004 40
1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.0N 90.7W 1002 48
0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.1N 93.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING -
TD2 advisories to be initiated at 11AM.
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59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:
It's on course to become a truly monstrous historic event. Its impacts will be far-reaching and probably very severe.
The latest CFSv2 run’s mean is at new highs for peak:
Monthly relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.6 (Nov), which is way above current record (back to 1950) warmest of +2.69 (Jan ‘83) :
3 month relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.35 (SON and OND), which is way above the record back to 1950 of +2.52 (NDJ 1982-3)
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NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (formerly AL91) located over the Gulf of America, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod. TIA
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I just started a thread on Invest 91L/potential Bertha:
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Invest 91L will be investigated by recon today. NHC chances in TWO now very high:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. In
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi——————
-Last 5 full (0Z/12Z) UKMET runs, the most consistently enthusiastic of the globals, have had a TS from this moving toward W GOM/LA/TX.
-Icon also has been hinting at this for several days with some runs having a TC
-0Z Euro was first run with a TC with it near borderline TS S of W FL panhandle
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. In
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi -
The 0Z Euro is the 1st one that I can recall with TCG of 91L. It even gets to borderline TS status S of the W FL panhandle Tue night.
TS Bertha
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
0Z UKMET: significantly stronger than last few runs and not as far N track allowing it to avoid LA for the most part and actually landfall just S of Galveston as TS, where Joe Bastardi said he may be hanging out:
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 86.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.5N 86.2W 1005 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.7N 86.4W 1001 42
0000UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.3N 87.1W 1001 37
1200UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 87.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 23.07.2026 48 28.9N 89.0W 1002 42
1200UTC 23.07.2026 60 29.0N 90.3W 1004 37
0000UTC 24.07.2026 72 28.5N 92.6W 1000 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 84 29.1N 94.9W 1006 38
0000UTC 25.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING