GaWx

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Aren't the + signs supposed to be - signs?

Mitch,

 I just realized I had a typo as I called the winds on those charts “anomalies”. I realize they’re not anomalies and are instead absolutes but for some reason I typed anomalies.  

 Thus, I just corrected the original post. My original thoughts are unchanged. I think my erroneously originally referring to them as anomalies threw you off. So, the +5 and +4 are actual winds rather than being 5 and 4 above normal. Is that what threw you off?

——————

 Aside: Ignore the trolls. Apparently moderation is nonexistent here.

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Aren't the + signs supposed to be - signs?

Mitch,
 Danny Devito says no and I agree with him.  1976 and 2009 had very weak winds but they didn’t go <0. I was looking at El Niño Novs that dipped to +5 or lower. 1968, 1976, and 2009 were the only three to do so per ERA data. A +5 dip is very weak.

 The chart below has 10 mb/60N winds back to 1949. According to it, Nov 2026 is going to per ERA obliterate the old record (all of the way back to at least 1949) earliest SSWe whether it gets down to 0 (major SSW) or stays just above. The earliest SSW on record is 1952’s ~Nov 15th SSW. So, 2026 is headed to possibly beat 1952 by ~11 days!

————————

 Looking at the above chart for only El Niño Novs, the only three that got to +5 or lower per ERA5 in Nov were 1968 (-5 on Nov 27th), 1976 (+4 on ~Nov 15th), and 2009 (+5 on ~Nov 15th). These three had the lowest DJF AO of any winters since at least 1949-50. Thus, these very strong winter -AOs were quite possibly connected to a large extent to the very weak Nov SPV period. Thus, a case could be made for a better than average chance for a strong -AO averaged out in 2026-7 despite the lack of seasonal model support:

1968-9: AO -2.3

1976-7: AO -2.6

2009-10: AO -3.4

@Typhoon Tip
 

*Edited for typo 

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C

 
 The official NOAA Nino weekly (based on OISSTv2.1) was at +2.5 for the avg of last week and is likely ~+2.6 now. Based on this as well as forecasts, I’m currently thinking their weeklies will likely peak no higher than low +3’s, which means monthlies will likely peak no higher than ~+3.0. That would mean a trimonthly RONI peak probably in the upper +2.0s.

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Parts of the CONUS are at +8 to +9 and it’s only October. None of the seasonal models were forecasting this from the September runs. Even the early October runs turned out too cool. 
 

 

But note that the CS3 Oct ‘26 mean for the E coast states has verified quite well based on Oct 1-25.

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Overnight 00z EPS jumps to 86% of it's members... Gefs now at 65%.. EPS looks impressive if you loop 10 and especially 50 mb. 

 

 For those who don’t realize how unprecedented in the ERA5 records this is forecasted to be at 10mb, 60N:

The 0Z 10/27/26 EPS mean is forecasted to be 10-14 below the weakest on record (I don’t know how far back though) and 24-29 below the mean per ERA5 data Nov 3rd-10th!

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is no SSW modeled from what I'm seeing anyway ...

Just pointing that out for the straw man if no one's betting.

John,

 There is a record weak SPV for early Nov being modeled, which would result in anomalies of ~-20 m/s. It may not result in an actual wind reversal (<0 m/s), but, say, a +5 m/s event would still be record shattering.

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a near record STJ off the Baja being forecast which will help to amplify the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast moving into early November. 
 

 

 With this record breaking and possibly even record shattering weak early Nov SPV very likely, what do you and others think that leads us to for Dec? Previously I was thinking based on @snowman19+QBO/Nino analogs that Dec overall would likely be mild in the E US outside of possibly NN in the SE. But, I noticed that while Nov warmed considerably on the latest 10 day mean CFS (2-3F) since the runs from ~3 weeks ago, it has also cooled considerably (~2F) for Dec since just 10 days ago. I’m wondering if this is related to the 35-40 day @Stormchaserchuck1typical cooling lag for the E US after an SSW this time of year:

CFS 10 day mean from 10 days ago: torchy

Latest CFS 10 day mean for Dec: ~2F colder E US: not torchy

 Today’s IOD release (avg for 10/19-25) came in at +0.69 vs the +0.88 of the prior week:

20260831,20260906,0.24
20260907,20260913,0.63
20260914,20260920,0.68
20260921,20260927,0.75
20260928,20261004,0.59
20261005,20261011,0.88
20261012,20261018,0.88
20261019,20261025,0.69

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1791781094025

 The NOAA relative weeklies released this morning:

-Nino 3.4 warmed slightly to +2.5. It remains at record levels for the time of year with it way ahead of the 2nd warmest, +2.0 of 2015. The record for any week is +2.9 of 12/29/82.

-Nino 3’s +3.6 is much warmer than the 2nd warmest for the week, +2.9 of 1997 and it also ties the warmest for any week, 12/29/1982.

-Nino 1+2’s +4.4 remains much warmer than its 2nd warmest for the week, +3.6 of 1997. Its warmest for any week is the +4.6 of 1998.

30SEP2026         4.5        3.3        2.3        0.1
 07OCT2026         4.4        3.4        2.4        0.2
 14OCT2026         4.4        3.5        2.4       -0.1
 21OCT2026         4.4        3.6        2.5        0.0

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Lowest yet I believe. Maybe @GaWx or @Stormchaserchuck1 will correct me.

Bottom map is 10mb.

Yes, Mitch, the latest EW (10/25) is slightly weaker than the 10/24 run.

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2, fwiw, has been advertising a little  AN December, but not a blow torch. 

Indeed, although Nov on the CFS has warmed, the 10 day mean Dec has cooled ~2F in the E US since 10 days ago.

10 day mean as of 10 days ago:

Latest 10 day mean: 2F cooler. Could this be related to the even weaker early Nov SPV when considering the 35-40 day lag Chuck mentioned?

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

 

Really? That would be interesting. Which years? We're tracking below the ERA5 minimums for this one. 

 

 
 Here are the lowest for the four years hitting record lows (since these graphs started in 1978-9) during the first 10 days of Nov:

2016-7: ~11 low (+QBO, the only one of these four years with QBO similar to 2026)

2009-10 (El Nino): ~11 low during Nov 1-10 only (-QBO)

2005-6: ~12 low (dropping +QBO)

2004-5 (El Nino): ~13 low (-QBO)

 The 0Z 10/25/26 progs are suggesting these +11 to +13 dips will likely be exceeded and quite possibly by a wide margin of 5 to 10.

*Edited to correct typos

 The CFS 10 day for Nov has warmed 2-3F since 20 days ago:

Latest:

20 days ago:

On 10/21/2026 at 7:59 PM, GaWx said:

It appears per models that due to a combo of a large Tahiti SLP rise/smaller Darwin fall and despite it being way down at -43 today, it should break the very long current -SOI streak and go positive by ~Oct 25th. That means that the current -SOI streak would end near 74 days.

Indeed, the -SOI went + on Oct 24th (today) making it 72 days:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't signaling anyone out....general question.

My answer:

 That’s why I prefer to compare 30 year normals rather than compare absolutes since temps are obviously warming due to GW, which is why I did that in my reply to Chris. 

 Now in terms of 30 year climo based anomalies for Oct, ‘26 is coming in a bit warmer than the avg super Nino anom. at ATL for sure. So, I agree with Chris’ general idea about that.

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Quick question....we have established that the climate is warming, so why is it news that this was the warmest October in a super El Niño?

 Ray,

 I personally don’t think it is all that big of a deal that ATL is projected to be ~1.8 F above normal for the FULL Oct of ‘26. I didn’t mean to imply that. After all, Oct of 1991 was almost as far AN with it at 1.6F AN.
 

 Of course he was just referring to Oct 1-22, which came in ~2.2 AN vs the normal of 66.4F. But even that isn’t a strong warm anomaly.

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been the warmest October 1st to 22nd at Atlanta by a wide margin during a super El Niño.

October 1st to 22nd Average Temperatures at Atlanta

2026….68.6°

2023….65.5°

2015….64.9°

1997….64.5°

1982….65.2°

1972…..62.1°

 Thanks, Chris. Good find!
 
 I went further and looked at all ATL Octs for +1.3+ Ninos back to the late 1800s (24 of them) and found only three that were 1.8+ warmer than normal, which is ~where the full Oct 2026 is projected. But they were all only higher end moderate:

1918 (+1.4 Nino): 65.8 (3.1 AN)

1941 (+1.3 Nino): 69.4 (5.9 AN)

2002 (+1.3 Nino): 65.4 (1.8 AN)

 
 The full Oct 2026 is projected to come out to ~66.1F or ~1.8 AN, which would tie with 1899 for the warmest vs normal for any Nino stronger than +1.4 peak. (I count 17 of them back to late 1800s). The warmest ATL Oct anomalies for El Niños stronger than +1.4 peak are:

1899 (1.8 AN)

1991 (1.6 AN)

2023 (1.4 AN)

1986 (1.2 AN)

1994 (1.1 AN)

Latest Arctic ice falling back closer to the mean as the Arctic N of 80N anoms have warmed considerably:

 Feb in the E US will likely be heavily affected by the Feb NAO. The CFSv2 is implying a strong -NAO in Feb ‘27.

-These Ninos had a strong +NAO in Feb: 1992, 2016, 2024

 Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:

-These Ninos had a strong -NAO in Feb: 1958, 1966, 2010

Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

As @bluewave has shown, much of the seasonal guidance has verified too cold for +ENSO episodes. 

-2016: much less E based Nino

In the E US, the mid-Oct ‘15 forecast mean CFSv2 for Feb ‘16 actually verified slightly too warm overall in the E US!

Verification of Feb ‘16 (vs 1981-2010):

-2024, much weaker and less E based Nino:

The mid-Oct ‘23 mean CFSv2 forecast for Feb ‘24 verified too cold NE but wasn’t too far off in the SE and was very close deep SE:

Verification of Feb ‘24 (vs 1991-2020):

 How will it do for Feb ‘27? We’ll see! Yes, although I’m not at all trusting any model, I’m excited about the Feb potential (not Dec at all and not much for Jan though that could very well be transitioning):

40 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I question this because if you aren’t skewing heavily +PNA/-EPO in the mean, how do you end up with heavily negative anomalies in the South?

 That’s still a moderate +PNA since SE US H5 anomalies are much lower than those for W Can. Then combine that with an off the charts E Can/W -NAO block diverting cold down into the SE. H5 anomalies are lowest in the SE US of anywhere on the globe in CFSv2 Feb fcast with -8 to -10 dam. Also, cold in SE, especially deep SE, has at most a modest correlation with -EPO:

 

Edit: Also note that climo used by TT here is 1984-2009, which is colder than 1991-2020. So, had 1991-2020 been used instead, H5 anomalies over the E US would be even lower since mean H5 has warmed.

 Latest CFSv2 10 day mean 850 mb fcast anomalies for Feb of 2027: note that >75% of Conus BN, including ~1/3 of Conus 2-4 C BN, along with the extreme warmth in E Canada that is consistent with strong blocking there allowing the diverting of dominant Arctic cold into much of Conus:

——————
In stark contrast, mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘24: 85% AN in Conus/no block in E Canada in that much weaker/much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

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In sharp contrast to mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘16: only <15% BN, none sub -2C, and less extreme Canadian warmth centered >1,000 miles W of the Feb ‘27 forecast in that much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

Latest CFSv2 10 day mean 850 mb fcast anomalies for Feb of 2027: note that >75% of Conus BN, including ~1/3 of Conus 2-4 C BN, along with the extreme warmth in E Canada that is consistent with strong blocking there allowing the diverting of dominant Arctic cold into much of Conus:

——————
In stark contrast, mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘24: 85% AN in Conus/no block in E Canada in that much weaker/much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

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In sharp contrast to mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘16: only <15% BN, none sub -2C, and less extreme Canadian warmth centered >1,000 miles W of the Feb ‘27 forecast in that much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

Today’s CFSv2 GLAAM forecast (see top image below): currently extremely high at +3 SD; though very high, Oct is not as high as record-breaking Sep (keep in mind that it amazingly exceeded +4 SD for a 6 day period (within 9/17-23), which may not happen again for decades):

By latitude: similar pattern that has dominated for awhile with the strongest positive anomalies S of 20N:

In contrast, 2023-4 was nothing of the sort: