GaWx

12 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I just do not buy Phase 6 being cold

 Well, as it turned out again using GSP, El Niño ph 6 near or inside the circle in Jan turns out to avg cold just like La Niña inside Jan ph 6:

Phase 6 during Nino Jan

77 6-9, 11-13: -7, -4, -11, -7, -20, -15, -13 (-11 W)

78 4: -6 (-6 W)

80 31: -13 (-13 W)

83 10-1: +1, +3 (+2 W)

92 3-8: +10, +13, +8, +6, +2, +1 (+7 W)

95 28-30: +1, -6, -7 (-4 W)

98 1-3, 21-2: -12, 0, +6, -3, -3 (-2 M)(-3 W)

03 10-12, 23-5: +5, -6, -10, -16, -19, -10 (-4 M)(-15 W)

05 9-19, 31: +10, +11, +11, +18, +22, +7, -1, -2, -13, -15, -14, -1 (+3 M)(-1 M)

07 9-13, 15-6, 24, 26-31: -1, -3, -4, +5, +16, +21, +5, -3, -5, +5, -2, -15, -2, -12 (+6 M)(-5 W)

10 20-1: +15, +3 (+9 M)

15 9-14, 28-31: -8, -11, -10, -1, -1, -4, -3, -2, 0, -4 (-6 S)(-2 W)

19 2-3, 25-30: +10, +11, -4, -5, -3, +1, -3, -9 (+11 S)(-4 S)

24 24-7: +6, +17, +21, +12 (+14 S)

So, there were 20 Nino Jan ph 6 periods:

10 W: 3 MB, 4 B, 2 N, 1 A; avg -158/36 = -4.4 for weak!

6 M: 1 B, 2 N, 2 A, 1 MA avg +43/27 = +1.2 for moderate

4 S: 2 B, 2 MA +19/18 = +1 for strong

81 days

BN 39

NN 16

AN 26

-66 cumulative or -1/day overall but cold concentrated when near/inside circle (-4 there vs +1 outside) similar to La Niña! For La Niña, it was overall -2/day with it averaging -5/day near/inside circle and +1 outside.

 So, the BAMwx idea of a cold E US during ph 6 in Jan in -AAM works out only for weak/mainly inside the circle and Nino is similar.

 As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild:

The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?

 As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild:
 

The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Followup:

0Z vs 12Z Chicago lowest min (F) Jan 6+:

Euro: -15 vs +22

EPS: +16 vs +22

GFS: +29 vs +30

GEFS: +25 vs +25

 So, whereas Euro suite is colder, GFS suite is unchanged

The reason for these Chi coldest of run posts is because of it being a source region since a lot of SE cold travels from that area. It’s extremely hard for the SE to get colder than Chi (outside of mtns) as the air traveling from there modifies as it comes SE and even more w/o snowcover.

Whereas the 0Z GFS suite stayed the same (quite mild) as the 12Z despite the Euro suite getting sig. colder post Jan 6th, the 6Z GFS suite did trend a notable amount colder even though it’s still mainly mild (normal lows upper teens) (ens means are the most important that far out) 

Coldest post Jan 6th of GFS/GEFS:

12Z +30/+25
0Z +29/+25
6Z +21/+21

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro/GFS coldest low at Chicago 1/6-1/18: 22/30

12Z EPS/GEFS coldest low at Chicago 1/6-18: 22/25

Normal low 20-18

Not good for SE cold prospects. So, hopefully they’re going to turn out way too warm like 12/28-1/1 and earlier periods did. We’ll see. If not, it’s going to be very hard for the SE overall to get substantially cold before 1/20.

Those 90 day bias maps had Chicago too warm by 4 F for the 11-15 fwiw:

Followup:

0Z vs 12Z Chicago lowest min (F) Jan 6+:

Euro: -15 vs +22

EPS: +16 vs +22

GFS: +29 vs +30

GEFS: +25 vs +25

 So, whereas Euro suite is colder, GFS suite is unchanged

ATL 15 coldest winters since 1950-1/SN

1957-8 2.7” incl IP

1960-1 0.1”

1962-3 T + major ZR

1963-4 3.6”

1965-6 0.7”

1967-8 4.2” + major ZR

1968-9 2.2”

1969-70 0.6”

1976-7 1.0” + ZR

1977-8 0.3”

1978-9 4.6” IP + major ZR

1981-2 7.7” incl. IP + ZR

1983-4 1.3”

2009-10 5.3”

2010-1 7.1”

Avg 2.8” SN/IP + ~avg ZR

2.8”/1.9” = 1.5 times the 1.9” normal

—————

 Mild winters with 2”+: only 5 (~20% of them)

1951-2 3.9”

1990-1 2.1”

1991-2 5.0”

2001-2 4.6”

2017-8 4.7”

NN to cold winters with 2”+: 26 (~50% of them)

NN and BN similar chance for 2”+

So, for ATL, having a mild winter (2+ F AN) significantly cuts down on the chance for normal SN. But NN doesn’t at all. Keep in mind that often much of ATL’s snow in a season comes from just one storm.

3 hours ago, NGTim said:

Something weird has happened to me somewhere between turning 50 and 60 plus which I am now.  I no longer am just downright sad and in the dumps when the forecasted winter temp is at or above normal.  When I was younger I had it really bad, as I'm sure many can identify with.  If it was going to be 60 degrees on Christmas or New Years (or heck, not stuck in the 30's all day), I almost couldn't enjoy it.  My older, I guess thinner blooded self says, you know, it was really nice being in the 70s on Christmas.  If its not going to snow, heck, I almost prefer it being warm.  Its real, but doesn't feel right, but, I am embracing it even though I feel dirty.

THAT being said, I do still love me some snow, and it got me thinking, is there a correlation between cold and snow (hear me out...).  I'm talking climatologically here, over the course of a winter.  Seems to me around here its all about timing, rather than if it was wall to wall cold.  So my question, and I don't want to just say hey @GaWx jump on this, but..., if you took a random city like Atlanta, or maybe Asheville, since its more likely to get snow there, is there a 100% correlation between a "cold winter" and snowfall amounts, or are you just as likely to get a big snow due to timing, in an otherwise "warm" or neutral winter.

ATL 15 coldest winters since 1950-1/SN

1957-8 2.7” incl IP

1960-1 0.1”

1962-3 T + major ZR

1963-4 3.6”

1965-6 0.7”

1967-8 4.2” + major ZR

1968-9 2.2”

1969-70 0.6”

1976-7 1.0” + ZR

1977-8 0.3”

1978-9 4.6” IP + major ZR

1981-2 7.7” incl. IP + ZR

1983-4 1.3”

2009-10 5.3”

2010-1 7.1”

Avg 2.8” SN/IP + ~avg ZR

2.8”/1.9” = 1.5 times avg

—————

 Mild winters with 2”+: only 5 (~20% of them)

1951-2 3.9”

1990-1 2.1”

1991-2 5.0”

2001-2 4.6”

2017-8 4.7”

NN to cold winters with 2”+: 26 (~50% of them)

NN and BN similar chance for 2”+

30 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

12z euro. It's in the mid to long range and we've seen what the points look like but this is kind of what we want.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

 That all looks pretty good at H5. But keep in mind that the Midwest only barely cools back down to NN briefly at best during these periods on that Euro run with AN dominating. And the GFS never even gets down to NN. Hopefully, the Euro and especially the GFS will cool off substantially on the ground in the Midwest as we get closer just as occurred for as recent periods as 12/28-today.

12Z Euro/GFS coldest low at Chicago 1/6-1/18: 22/30

12Z EPS/GEFS coldest low at Chicago 1/6-18: 22/25

Normal low 20-18

Not good for SE cold prospects. So, hopefully they’re going to turn out way too warm like 12/28-1/1 and earlier periods did. We’ll see. If not, it’s going to be very hard for the SE overall to get substantially cold before 1/20.

Those 90 day bias maps had Chicago too warm by 4 F for the 11-15 fwiw:

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

A large portion of the West had their warmest December on record. But none of the areas in the East that were cold approached their coldest December on record. This has been a common theme in recent years with the warm departures being more impressive than the cold departures on a month to month basis. 
 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

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December 2025 temperature ranking (since 1895). A lot of the West had their warmest December on record and nearly everywhere out west had a top 5 warmest December. 

 

10:26 PM · Jan 1, 2026

Everybody can

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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The month-to-date temperature departure from normal for the Contiguous U.S. is +3.9F. If this is how the month ends, December 2025 would finish as the 4th warmest December on record (1895-present). 4 of the top 5 would include 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025. It's as if something has changed.

11:47 AM · Dec 29, 2025

Everybody can

Dec ‘25 will end up cooler than +3.9F once Dec 29-31 are added. Why? Because Dec 29-31 averaged NN to slightly BN vs 1991-2020 climo overall based on my rough est. That could be as cold as ~30 for those 3 days.

 So, the question isn’t if it will end up cooler because it has to based on the above. The question is how much will it bring down the +3.9. Roughly, you’d be adding a 10% weighting with as cold as ~-1 (based on 1991-2020 anomaly) to a 28 day of +3.9. That would come out to ~+3.4 IF the last 3 days were really -1. If it goes back down to ~+3.4, then it could also end up cooler than 1939, something @TheClimateChangerand I have been discussing. Even if Dec 29-31 averaged near 0 anomaly, that would still bring Dec as a whole down to +3.5, still quite possibly cooler than 1939 in the absolute and definitely much cooler for the anomaly vs appropriate climo for each period as 1939 was >+5.5.

 Also, 2015 may turn out warmer. So, 2025 could come in 6th or so.

 This chart only goes through 2021:

Edit: note that per this chart that 1939 was >+5.5 F vs its climo and 1957 was ~+3.9. So, 2025 anomaly also could come in cooler than 1957’s anomaly.

 So, 2025’s anomaly vs its climo could come in 7th.

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seems the difference between the GEFS dumping the trough out west as opposed to the EPS is the handling of the MJO. While the EPS is essentially in the COD, GEFS is moving to phase 6.

 
 Today’s EPS and CFS are also going to ph 6 mid Jan. BAMwx posted that phase 6 in -AAM during Jan has been very cold in the E US, with the most intense cold in the interior SE (see lower right in image just below), which to me was very counterintuitive. So, I needed to know the answer.

  Now it’s even more important to know as the move to ph 6 midmonth now has increasing model support. The following are results of my research done on Tue, which looked at GSP, a station in that coldest (pink) area, during La Niña:

Niña Year….# phase 6 days…avg anomaly

1975…3…-8 M

1976…13…-9 W-S

1989…3…+8 M

1999…3…+2 M

2000…3…-4 W

2006…6…+3 S

2008…3…+8 S

2009…6…+1 W-M

2011…12…-7 W-S

2012…19…+1 W-S

2017…2…0 W

2018…3…-2 S

2021…8…-1 M-S

2022…4…-9 W

2025…2…-5 W

W weak (mainly in or near circle), M mod., S strong

91 total days (big sample)

—————

So, 15 cases of ph 6 during Nina Jans:

3 MBN

3 BN

6 NN

1 AN

2 MAN

——————— 

- These La Nina Jan results weren’t at all what I would have expected for phase 6, one of the 3 mild Jan phases in the SE averaged out over all years:

- Though there’s not surprisingly lots of variability, GSP did average 2 BN. Before seeing BAMwx’s post I never would have expected this. However, it should also be noted that BAM’s -6 to -7 for GSP is at the same time significantly too cold. 

- Only 3 of the 15 Jan cases were AN to MAN: 1989, 2006, and 2008. These were all M to S intensity (intuitive).

- So, none of the last 8 were mild as there were 5 NN and 3 BN (2011, 2022, and 2025). These also averaged 2 BN. The weakest 3 averaged a solid cold 6 BN.

- Thus if phase 6 continues to look more likely for midmonth, it will be interesting to see whether or not the NN to cold dominance works out in the SE (and E overall by association), especially if the bulk of ph 6 turns out to be anywhere from inside the circle to near/just outside the circle.

@donsutherland1

20 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Good point GaWx but we started to see signs of a developing -NAO which eventually merged with that funky GOA ridge.  The 12 Z EPS Ensemble mean gave me little hope but doesn’t jive with American or Canadian.  
 

Does anyone know how La Niña is faring?  We something to change soon so that mid month to February can be salvaged.

 Yeah, the 12Z EPS gives me hope. About all we know with decent confidence based on model consensus is that there will probably be a 4-5 day long torch (sound familiar?) mainly mid to next week. That covers Jan 6-10. After that, it’s a crap-shoot. If the 12Z EPS were to verify well, then things could be getting more interesting starting the week after next regardless of what todays EWs showed. By the way, the EW is essentially an extension of the 0Z EPS.

1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

After conducting a thorough quantitative analysis of all model and teleconnections verification scores, I have concluded:

The model that predicts AN and no frozen precipitation in the SE verifies almost 100% of the time.  

 Folks should remember that the models were significantly too warm in advance of the 3 weeks starting Thanksgiving Week as well as for Dec 29th through today. So, they had been way off almost all in the too warm direction when they were off late Nov through today.
 
 They did a good job for the historic Dec torch well in advance.

 Happy New Year!
 Please post your Jan obs as well as current/recent wx occurring anywhere.

 Regardless of what the rest of Jan has in store, I’m outside enjoying another stellar day thanks to Canada!

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Remember my post about the Weeklies a week or so ago? 

 They still have value for guidance. Some runs/periods are better than others. At times they’ve been stellar while at other times they’ve been in the commode. Overall they’re the best that we have for the long range, which is very hard for models to forecast. 
 
 But in this case, the medium range of the Euro has been in the commode with too cold apparently! Before this, the medium range of models had been too warm for that cold 3 week period and for 12/29-1/1.

 The models did well for the Dec torch.

 @NorthHillsWxHow about this bleak that covers, next week (Jan 5-11)?

Four days ago: encouraging

Today: worse than the commode, this is in the hot-tub: this is Torch #2

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Everyone always laughs at GEFS and GFS but has it been any worse that other models for next week? Look at the euro, 5 days ago it was honking the horn for a cold and stormy pattern in the east and everyone was excited and now it’s gone absolute torch on everyone. I’m not defending GEFS, but it never really bought that week like other modeling did even though it was wishy washy. There’s something to be said if a model suite locks in consistently to a period then pulls the rug vs one that can’t make its mind up on same period. Both suck for us, but king euro failed miserably on this period. Mid month and beyond I don’t even care about yet we can’t even get 2 weeks somewhat accurate. Signs are looking 2021-ish to me with pattern change that never happens but I’m just a lurker on pattern recognition 

The “Bleaklies” (thanks, ColdRain, for coming up with that hilarious nickname) are almost the polar opposite of last year for the SE at this time.

 Related to your mention of the Euro, one “bleak” (Jan 12-18) has gone from this encouraging run just two days ago:

To the commode today:

 On this Happy New Year’s Day, I refuse to talk at all about the Bleaklies being almost the polar opposite of last year for the SE at this time. They’re not called “The Bleaklies” for nothing. So, what they’re showing shouldn’t surprise anyone. So, I won’t talk about them. They’re not bad at all though for the NE overall with NN averaged out per the in-house maps.

 I changed my mind. I’ll talk about one bleak:

 Jan 12-18 has gone from encouraging just 2 days ago

To the commode today:

@TheClimateChanger I had as you know estimated that the MTD mean would rise to ~38.2 F as of 12/27. However, I then estimated as you also should know a 31F avg for 12/28-31 allowing the full month to end up at ~37.2. But after seeing the image below showing the MTD was very surprisingly to me still up at 38.13 as of 12/29, I now see no way that it will fall back to ~37.2. I had also said I saw ~no way that the full Dec would be warmer than the 37.75 of 1939. Now with this updated info, I can no longer say that as it looks like it will be a close call to 1939.

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. 

Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). 

CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast!

What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today):

That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. 

Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected)

The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued... 

 

Hey Chuck, 

 I’d say no. It’s hard for NG to bake in an extreme that’s essentially in fantasyland/during when model skill is pretty limited. So, I feel confident that it would rise substantially in advance of the very cold should it actually start to show up in late week two of the EPS and GEFS means or even in week 3 of the EW/ext GEFS in the bulk of the E US. However, even if that were to occur, there’s the possibility that it could fall a good bit more before the extreme cold shows up and prices start to rise.

 The ensemble mean HDDs continue to drop. The 18Z GEFss lost a whopping 14 HDDs vs the 12Z! But even though HDDs keep dropping, the trajectory continues to show a sharp climb late in week 2 to NN:

Folks,
 I recommend that snowman and others not look at the Euro Weeklies today. I’d instead go outside and enjoy the fantastic Canadian air! And Happy New Year! May 2026 be dominated by more Canadian air! Keep in mind that the EW are essentially the extended 0Z EPS. The 12Z EPS trended better with the western ridge and that won’t be reflected on the EW.

39 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Saw more GAwx research that I believe showed Ph 6 in Nina Januarys averaged out to -2, but with big swings in either direction. January 1977 was something like -8 to -10 while it was in ph 6. 

Excellent succinct summary! But there’s a typo as you meant Jan of 1976 as opposed to 1977. Also, Jan of 1975 phase 6 was almost as cold. By the way, I calculated the anoms based on GSP because that was near the center of BAM map’s coldest. Other areas would vary of course. I’d still much rather have moderate to weak 8-1-2 as I said for the E US as a whole.

On 12/27/2025 at 1:40 PM, GaWx said:

 I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

Bump for @TheClimateChanger

Do you have an update of Dec through the 30th? TIA

 I realize that with today still being colder than the avg of 12/1-30 by ~4 degrees per my guess, the final Dec update will be a little colder than 12/1-30.

 The model consensus is suggesting a good chance for the Jan MJO to stay inside the circle for 20+ days. Only the following Jans since 1975 were on or inside the circle for 20+ days (note that it’s been 23 years since the last one due to the MJO avg amp increasing):

1977, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2003

 Of these 8 Jans in the E US, 1977, 1981, 1982, 1994, and 2003 were cold while 1996 and 2000 were NN to slightly BN. Only 1980 was AN and it was only modestly AN. That one had its MJO the furthest right of the eight Jans mainly on or inside the circle with none in phases 7, 8, or 1. Of its 31 days, 25 were in phases 4 or 5.
 
 So, none of the 8 were anywhere near a torch.

 Here’s the cold composite for these 8 Jans with 20+ days on or inside the circle:

 Here’s the composite for the other Jans near the endpoints and in between: MJO outside circle 12+ days

28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm becoming concerned about the cold push going west near the middle of the month. The West Atlantic Ridge is starting to pop up on globals

That is a legit concern for me, too. The forecasted -EPO/+TNH cold pattern for the central US eventually looks great for cold domination prospects for the central US, much of the Midwest, and the N NE. But the biggest risk against sustainable cold is in the SE primarily and Mid-Atlantic secondarily, where the SE ridge may be too strong if the PNA in the means doesn’t go positive. This is very difficult to forecast this far out.

 Although I don’t like the warmer model developments of recent days for week 2 in the E US, my hope is still that the PNA in the means will flip for Jan averaged out to match the 100% of -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 that went to a net +PNA for Jan. My other hope is that the 90 day -PNA bias of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS means that they’re currently off.

The GEFS AO looks better for midmonth vs yesterday fwiw.