GaWx
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Posts posted by GaWx
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It’s still an oppressive 97.3 at my place with mostly sunny skies. I don’t know what the high was but my guess would be ~99 (about the hottest of the year so far) and HI’s way up there.
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CSU 7/7/26 update: This forecast is predicting the weakest season since 2013. I wouldn’t at all mind a break here in the very hard hit SE overall since 2016.
“We further reduce our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipate a well below-normal season. Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
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6 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:
Not familiar with the author but interesting reading on a hot summer day regarding increased potential for positive PNA this winter and some of the data and science behind this potential pattern.
I just posted this elsewhere:
1. Asheville temp. records go back to 1876 and thus include 1877-8. Whereas Dec was mild/AN at 43.6, Jan was actually snowy and cold/BN (35.2) and Feb was NN (39.8). So, DJF averaged 39.5, which is actually NN.
In Jan, they had well above normal snow with 4” on the 4th and 4.5” on the 31st! They had a low of 7F on the 7th. So, I wonder why this source per your post said:
The winter of 1877–1878 in North Carolina was remarkably warm, largely recognized as an exceptionally mild season brought on by a historic 'Super' El Niño event.
This doesn’t at all jibe with this Asheville data and I haven’t found any data for any other locale in NC going that far back.
Data from here:https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp
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2. Regarding other super-El Nino winters in the SE:
-1888-8: Feb 1889 had a SE major snowstorm and was cold allowing for DJF to avg BN
-1957-8: cold winter overall with cold in Jan and especially Feb. and was snowy overall, esp in Feb, which included deep SE
-1965-6: cold winter overall thanks to quite cold in Jan and overall snowy in part of SE thanks to Jan/Feb
-1972-3: historic ZR Jan N GA and vicinity; historic snowstorm Feb AL to NC, including deep SE; overall NN temps with BN Feb
-1982-3: very snowy much of SE, including historic snow much of area in spring! ATL had biggest snowstorm as well as snowiest winter since 1939-40! It hasn’t been matched since! Overall NN temps.
-1991-2: ATL and nearby had a major snowstorm in Jan. Otherwise it was a mild winter.
-1997-8: NN temps overall with cold Dec, mild Jan, and NN Feb
-2015-6: AN temps overall due to warmest on record Dec as JF were actually BN to NN
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In summary,
-a super-Nino doesn’t point to an expected warm SE winter as only 2 of the 9 averaged mild in DJF. Only one, 1991-2, averaged mild throughout DJF.
-Super El Niño winters tend to average mild in the N tier of the US, not the SE.
-Dec will be favored to be AN as 6 of these 9 had a mild Dec, including the warmest on record
-Jan/Feb averaged out will be favored to be BN with most of the 9 BN overall, with some quite cold months in some cases
-AN wintry precip prospects are better than avg. All it takes is one major snow in the SE in many cases.
-AN rainfall prospect is the best news of all due to the drought!-
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45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Just be careful with that severe-weather-weenie site.
Ray, Good advice! I’m careful with potential bias of forecasts from any source, especially internet based looking for clicks or likes ($).
This source is putting some emphasis on the cooling N Atlantic and AMO decline tendencies as an additional important factor to consider for especially the E US, something I haven’t seen a whole lot here and elsewhere (not specifically you though). So, this gives a different perspective (both Atlantic and Pacific influences) from most discussions I’ve seen with lots of support from both historic data and latest forecasts from 3 of the most widely followed seasonal models, none of which are warm this winter as a whole for the bulk of the E US. Also, note that this article from a European source also includes warm maps for the upcoming European winter.-
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A Cold Atlantic Anomaly Returns as Super El Niño Shapes Winter 2026/2027 Early Forecast Signals
Together, the Atlantic cold blob and Super El Niño signals are already giving strong early hints for Winter 2026/2027 pressure and temperature across the United States, Canada, and Europe.
If we look at the actual observation image below, it shows the real ocean temperature trends over time. It looks nearly identical to the model simulation of a weakening AMOC. This supports the fact that the AMOC is indeed weakening, even faster than first anticipated.
This temperature signature of the warm Gulf Stream area and cold North Atlantic is one of the strongest indicators of the AMOC weakening.
Data shows the formation and growth of a new “cold blob” pattern, forecast to last into 2027.
You can see a very clear cold ocean anomaly, stretching back towards the Gulf Stream area. This anomaly is much larger than last year, continuing the long-term cooling trend of the subpolar North Atlantic.
You can see that the main cold area is linked back into the Gulf Stream and towards the east coast of the United States.
Below is an even more dramatic analysis image. It shows the 1-year difference in surface temperature for the last week of June. This shows that the North Atlantic is much colder currently than it was this time last year. What stands out most is the Gulf Stream area, which shows several degrees lower temperatures compared to last year.
North Atlantic Cold Anomaly and Super El Niño Forecast
North American Pattern: Where Ocean and Atmosphere Collide
The atmospheric pattern we found the connection to is called the Pacific-North American pattern, or PNA.
This basically tells us that a Fall cold blob anomaly in the Atlantic corresponds to a positive PNA pattern in Winter.
Not meaning that the cold anomaly itself is responsible for a colder winter over the eastern United States, but it can be like an indicator of what is to come.
But this year, we have a far stronger driver on the rise, the Super El Niño. Below is the analysis of the winter period during the last 4 Super El Niño events. You can actually see a very similar pattern to the +PNA above.
Below is the December 2026 pressure forecast from the ECMWF model that we used above for the ocean temperatures. We also added the CanSIPS model to compare different predictions. You can see that both forecasts show a strong positive PNA pattern, with a high-pressure system over Canada, a deep low in the North Pacific, and a low-pressure zone over the central and southern United States.
We can add another model into the mix, the CFS from the United States CPCcenter, which covers the whole Winter 2026/2027 period. Below is the pressure forecast that again shows an identical pattern to the two predictions above, with a clear Super El Niño pattern and a positive PNA over North America, with a ridge into Europe.
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This is as much about the high dewpoints (in or near upper 70s) as it is about the heat, itself (mid to upper 90s):
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values 112 to 116
possible.
* WHERE...Coastal southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.
* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening.
* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during
extreme heat and high humidity events.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.-
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One TS from a broken line just brought me approaching 1/2” over the last ~30 minutes with it lightening up now. This is the first measurable rain so far this month for where I live as the big Tybee TS that I experienced late Sunday afternoon missed my home to the E. Yesterday, it appeared I was going to get decent rain but it fell apart before I could get anything more than a T.
*Edit: my final tally ~0.4”
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16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:
1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.
Regarding super strength El Niño seasons, 1957-8, 1972-3 and 1982-3 were all fantastic to historic in the SE overall relative to climo in terms of wintry precip. Also, Feb of 1889 had a major snow in the SE. 1965-6 had historic cold in late Jan. In addition, Jan and especially Feb of 1958 were quite cold! Most importantly, they are usually wet, which we so desperately need to relieve the drought!
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6 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:
yeah they’re not “cooling” by a full 2.05C from Dec to March. the seasonal climatological mean is also increasing.
Anomalies cool by 2.05C Dec to Mar as that post was specifically addressing anomalies. That would be a record rate of the cooling of the anomalies Dec to Mar vs the current record being in 72-73 (1.87C).
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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:
This is the latest RAOB update, the +QBO is still descending, now down to 40mb
In other news, the +IOD gets going soon
And the ++PMM continues
@Gawx Has there ever been an El Niño event that saw the 30C isotherm end up east of the dateline? I know 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 didn’t do it….Adam, the monthly ERSST for Nino 4, which is from 150W to 160E, was warmest on record in these months:
30.21: Nov. ‘23
30.19: Jun ‘26
30.13: Nov ‘15
30.04: Dec ‘23
30.00: May ‘26
With the midpoint of Nino 4 being E of dateline (175W), the odds are very high that 30C made it E of the dateline prior to ‘26, especially in late ‘23 and late ‘15. However, it very likely didn’t happen in summer of ‘23 although it very well could have also in spring-fall ‘15 based on Nino 4 being 28.8 to 28.9 then.
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The latest CFS (10 days of runs ens. mean) is at the highest of any I’ve saved with relative peaks way up at ~3.4 (Nov) and nearly 3.25 (SON and OND)! The record highest since 1950 are well below these:
1 month: 2.69 (Jan 1983), 2.56 (Dec 1982), 2.48 (Nov 2015), 2.44 (Oct 1997), and 2.43 (Nov 1997)
3 month: 2.52 (NDJ 1982-3), 2.49 (DJF 1982-3), 2.43 (OND 1982), 2.38 (SON 1997), and 2.37 (NDJ 2015-6)
The most rapid monthly rates of warming of the mean is from July’s ~1.46 to Aug’s ~2.30, a warming of ~0.84, followed by a warming of ~0.70 from Aug’s ~2.30 to Sep’s ~3.00. So, the progged CFS rate of warming from July to Sep of ~1.54 will be the key period to see if the progged peak is actually going to verify closely. The record fastest 2 month warming is only ~1.3 (Nov 1954-Jan 1955 and Aug-Oct 1982).
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Note that they still show near record breaking rates of cooling Dec-Mar after these record shattering peaks with a mean plunge from Dec’s ~2.95 to Jan’s ~2.16 to Feb’s ~1.6 to Mar’s ~0.9. That 3 month progged cooling of ~2.05 Dec to Mar would be similar to the record rate of cooling for Dec to Mar of 1972-3, which was 1.87.
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Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd:
June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated.
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The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues:
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11 hours ago, bluewave said:
Just remember that with our last super El Niño which was much weaker than this one, the seasonal forecasts including the ECWMF were significantly too cool for what verified from the long range forecasts.
Forecast from August 2023
Verification
10 hours ago, mitchnick said:And don't forget that the last 2 winters the Euro seasonal was too warm in the NE. And since it is impossible to have statistical data that supports the notion that the current Euro seasonal is inherently biased too cool for Niños in its current upgraded version (and I don't see that being possible since there have been upgrades since the 2023 season), I honestly don't see the relevance of prior year forecasts. All we can take away, imho, is that the Euro seasonal has been inaccurate with its winter temp forecasts in the NE 3 out of the last 3 years, twice being too warm and once being too cool.
Edit: And let's not forget this month's forecast looks very similar to other seasonal modeling.
The NDJ Euro fcast made July 2023 was actually pretty close in most of the U.S. as per this post I made (see link below) with a good portion within 1F. Only the N tier was several degrees too cold:In addition as I said in the same post, the Euro July NDJ of both ‘25 and ‘24 were significantly too warm in the E US.
-‘23: I could call it either close overall or net slightly too cold due to the N tier-‘22 was a bit too cold in most of the E US, but that’s the only one like that since 2017!
-‘21 was slightly too warm in the E US
-‘20 and ‘19 were pretty close in the E US
-‘18 was a bit too warm NE US and close in the MidAtlantic/SE
-’17 was too warm in the E US
So for E US in their July NDJ forecasts, the tally is 5 too warm (‘25, ‘24, ‘21, ‘18, ‘17) and only 2 too cold even if I count ‘23 (‘23 and ‘22) as too cold. That in no way suggests the likelihood that the ‘26 NDJ just issued will verify too cold (sample size of 9 is decent).
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The MEI for May/June was +1.5. How does this compare to past years?
1997 +2.3
1987 +2.1
2015 +1.9
2026 +1.5
Also, the MEI warming from AM to MJ was 1.2, which is 2nd fastest to 1997’s 1.6.
The MEI warming from MA to MJ was 2.1, which ties with 1997 for the fastest.
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2 minutes ago, roardog said:
If I’m looking at the BOM correctly, isn’t it already too warm for early July?
If those were for early July I’d agree. But the BoM little circles represent the average for the full months.
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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
New July BOM model run for region 3.4 and region 3
Week midpoint…1+2…..…3….…..3.4……....429APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5
06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5
13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6
20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6
27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7
03JUN2026 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.7
10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
17JUN2026 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.8
24JUN2026 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.6
01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 -
I’m here at Tybee Island with some friends in a severe thunderstorm that we just experienced! It was something else! We were inside and I watched it closely!
Edit: However, nothing measurable fell at my home well to the W.
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46 minutes ago, mitchnick said:
Couldn't agree more. It tells me that the other seasonal models aren't far off with their progs of a winter offering legit chances for snow and cold, obviously interspersed with AN periods that will push the mean to only a little AN. Of course, without seeing the monthly maps, there's a but of speculation on my part.
For the US averaged out, this is the coldest NDJ on any Euro July forecast back to 2019. Not only that but keep in mind they’ve averaged out too warm since 2017 (significant warm bias as more have verified too warm than too cold):
‘26:
‘25: sig. too warm E US
‘24: significantly too warm most of lower 48
‘23: close
‘22: a bit too cold E US/significantly too warm W US
‘21: slightly too warm E US/close W US
‘20: pretty close E US; too warm W US
‘19: close
-July ‘18 forecast for NDJ was a bit too warm C US to NE and close Mid Atlantic/SE US; was close in W US
-July ‘17 fcast for NDJ: too warm E US, too cold W US
**Edit:
So, for E US, the July Euro NDJ forecast the last nine years averaged too warm in the E US 5 times, close 3 times, and too cold only once. When combined with the July forecast for NDJ being the coldest of the last 9 years, there’s little reason to favor a warm E US NDJ overall at this point based on the Euro.-
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31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:
Euro seasonal temps and precip thru January don't look bad to me in the east. Very wet with surface temps dropping as we head into winter. I bet February would look great, but the free maps stop at January. H5 looks reasonably tasty too imho. Naysayers, have at it. Lol
Link to a free parameters.
This (NDJ) looks good to me with no suggestion of a warm NDJ in most of the U.S. Actually, H5/2m in a good portion of the E US is near the lowest in the NH! This looks fairly typical of El Niño with the coldest/warmest US anoms in the South/North:
Prospects remain excellent to relieve the E US drought, which is typical of strong+ El Niño:
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On July 4th, the DMI mean Arctic temp finally reached and exceeded 0C with it at +.01C. That sets a new record latest 1st above freezing as it replaces the old record latest of June 20th, which had been set in 2013.
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23 hours ago, GaWx said:
As of July 2nd per the DMI data, the mean Arctic temperature based on 80N+ has still not quite reached freezing although it was only barely below it yesterday. Going back to 1958, the latest day it first hit freezing before 2026 was way back on June 20th (2013)!
Daily Mean Arctic temp. in degrees Kelvin: freezing is at 273.15 (July 2nd was 0.1C below freezing):
0260618 169 272.561676
20260619 170 272.634399
20260620 171 272.647522
20260621 172 272.469360
20260622 173 272.153870
20260623 174 271.679565
20260624 175 271.918213
20260625 176 272.421326
20260626 177 272.655334
20260627 178 272.803802
20260628 179 272.680786
20260629 180 272.732056
20260630 181 272.903717
20260701 182 272.963715
20260702 183 273.045624https://download.dmi.dk/pub/plus80N_temperatureindex/meanT2026_running.txt
July 3rd cooled back very slightly. So, the DMI 80N+ mean Arctic temp still hasn’t reached 0C! The old record latest was 6/20/2013.
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At 1:40 my sis told me that she was in one of the worst popup thunderstorms she’s ever experienced while driving with high winds, very heavy rain, and small hail in Buckhead near Roswell Rd! Temps suddenly plunged from a sunny 90s to 72 on her car therm! It ended about as fast as it started.
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29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:
Most expansive heatwave in history? Lmao. I guess the 1930s-50s just removed themselves from history. Not to mention 1988, 1995, 2012, etc
Very intense? Absolutely! One of the most expansive? No way! That along with trying to connect the developing super-Nino with summer heat made his post bad to me.
But then Chris Martz had a terrible reply, himself, when he downplayed the U.S. and European heatwaves by saying “It’s called ‘summer’”. Also, he criticized Jeff’s use of the term “heat dome” for the heatwaves even though it has been used frequently in the pro-met community for decades!So, both of them, who are looking at this from opposing standpoints more or less, looked bad here imho.
2026-2027 Super El Nino
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
Moderate +NAO
1973 2 1 0.250
1973 2 2 0.252
1973 2 3 0.237
1973 2 4 0.525
1973 2 5 0.834
1973 2 6 0.944
1973 2 7 0.807
1973 2 8 0.672
1973 2 9 0.656
1973 2 10 0.718
1973 2 11 0.924
Moderate to strong +AO
1973 2 1 1.868
1973 2 2 1.709
1973 2 3 0.930
1973 2 4 0.511
1973 2 5 1.958
1973 2 6 2.915
1973 2 7 2.326
1973 2 8 1.437
1973 2 9 1.385
1973 2 10 1.560
Neutral to weak +PNA
1973 2 1 0.304
1973 2 2 0.161
1973 2 3 0.229
1973 2 4 0.295
1973 2 5 0.179
1973 2 6 -0.004
1973 2 7 -0.097
1973 2 8 0.154
1973 2 9 0.349
1973 2 10 0.166
Moderate to strong -EPO
1973 02 01 74.97
1973 02 02 -15.68
1973 02 03 -165.84
1973 02 04 -262.56
1973 02 05 -228.20
1973 02 06 -209.60
1973 02 07 -231.67
1973 02 08 -209.49
1973 02 09 -159.81
1973 02 10 -29.44
Neutral to weak +WPO
1973 02 01 247.35
1973 02 02 202.33
1973 02 03 119.68
1973 02 04 71.22
1973 02 05 36.31
1973 02 06 9.54
1973 02 07 -8.75
1973 02 08 -19.39
1973 02 09 0.37
1973 02 10 21.42