GaWx

12Z GFS and Euro ask “what Val. Day storm?” They fwiw show sunny high pressure. But that’s still 9 days out, a relative eternity in relation to model accuracy.

37 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Come on, you're smart enough to know better surely.

 Good point! I’m just trying to generate discussion. I know he’s always been very strongly cold-biased (due to a combo of his being a cold weenie plus cold’s much better for business/traffic/likes) and I’ve never been shy about saying so, but sometimes he ends up right. Could this be one of those times?

 Of course, I’m responding to a person who proudly prefers warmth based on nearly all of your recent posts and username. Nothing wrong with that, of course and you have company here and especially elsewhere. Different strokes for different folks!  

 This is very telling (add much of the Triad to CLT):

Posted by JB a few hours ago:

Northeast likely Never Pulls out of BN pattern

Opinions?

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

theoretically it has to give out at some point and we see a significant warm up. at least that's what im hoping for. i see no point in a cold march and april. as soon as it hits march 1st i yearn for 72 and sunny

 I want BN temps 365 days of the year. But keep in mind that I’m in a place that’s heavily dominated by heat and humidity and where “cold” is very tolerable and quite enjoyable. Anytime I can get an export of dry Canadian air I’m a happy camper and love being outside! A “cold” April here (say 5 BN) would be highs averaging ~73 and lows averaging 50. How much more pleasant can it be than that? Everything is relative. My main dislike is high dewpoints. Even 80s with sub 50 dewpoints are pleasant.

11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

This has to be at least a B+ winter 

 This has been an A+ winter in terms of excitement as well as fascinating/very interesting nearly nonstop forecast discussions! There had been more than one winter before these last 2 that were, frankly, mainly boring in the SE forecast threads.

 Light snow, sleet, and graupel have been falling this morning in NE GA and also down to S Forsyth County and N and E Cobb County (N ATL burbs)! This is the winter that keeps on giving in GA!

 Following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as I expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

On 11/16/2025 at 9:35 AM, GaWx said:

 I just looked up -ENSO winters with a -PNA in Dec to see how often it went to a +PNA in Jan. In what winters did this occur?

-1954-5: -0.52 to +0.40

-1962-3: -0.08 to +0.58

-1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97

-1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63

-1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63

-1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16

-2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61

-2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29

-2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55

-2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97

-2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28

-2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01

-2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22

 So, although it wasn’t common from 1954-5 through 1971-2, when only 2 of 9 (22%) switched, here’s something that just blew my mind:

-ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans (listed above)!

-These 11 averaged +0.76 in January!

-Now, check out the -ENSO Jan PNAs since 1983-4 that had a +PNA in Dec:

1) 1985-6 went from +1.39 to +0.97

2) 1988-9 went from +0.63 to -0.72

3) 1995-6 went from +0.92 to -0.02

4) 1999-00 went from +0.21 to -0.82

5) 2000-01 went from +1.23 to +1.51

6) 2001-2 went from +0.56 to -0.04

7) 2005-6 went from +1.38 to -0.43

8) 2007-8 went from +0.14 to -0.32

9) 2011-2 went from +0.36 to +0.60

10) 2017-8 went from +0.89 to +0.40

11) 2020-1 went from +1.58 to +0.19

12) 2024-5 went from +1.70 to +1.05

 -So, for these 12 -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 with a +PNA, only 50% also had a +PNA in Jan.

-So, since 1983-4, whereas only 50% of the 12 -ENSO Decs with a +PNA also had a Jan +PNA, 100% of the 11 -ENSO Decs with a -PNA in Dec went to a +PNA in Jan! Thus, having a -PNA in Dec during -ENSO since 1983-4 has, if anything, meant a big increase in the chance for a +PNA in Jan whether random or not! I didn’t know this til just now.

Link to monthly PNAs back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 I’m bumping this 11/16/25 post.
 
 So, following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

On 11/16/2025 at 9:42 AM, GaWx said:

 I just looked up -ENSO winters with a -PNA in Dec to see how often it went to a +PNA in Jan. In what winters did this occur?

-1954-5: -0.52 to +0.40

-1962-3: -0.08 to +0.58

-1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97

-1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63

-1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63

-1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16

-2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61

-2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29

-2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55

-2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97

-2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28

-2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01

-2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22

 So, although it wasn’t common from 1954-5 through 1971-2, when only 2 of 9 (22%) switched, here’s something that just blew my mind:

-ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans (listed above)!

-These 11 averaged +0.76 in January!

-Now, check out the -ENSO Jan PNAs since 1983-4 that had a +PNA in Dec:

1) 1985-6 went from +1.39 to +0.97

2) 1988-9 went from +0.63 to -0.72

3) 1995-6 went from +0.92 to -0.02

4) 1999-00 went from +0.21 to -0.82

5) 2000-01 went from +1.23 to +1.51

6) 2001-2 went from +0.56 to -0.04

7) 2005-6 went from +1.38 to -0.43

8) 2007-8 went from +0.14 to -0.32

9) 2011-2 went from +0.36 to +0.60

10) 2017-8 went from +0.89 to +0.40

11) 2020-1 went from +1.58 to +0.19

12) 2024-5 went from +1.70 to +1.05

 -So, for these 12 -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 with a +PNA, only 50% also had a +PNA in Jan.

-So, since 1983-4, whereas only 50% of the 12 -ENSO Decs with a +PNA also had a Jan +PNA, 100% of the 11 -ENSO Decs with a -PNA in Dec went to a +PNA in Jan! Thus, having a -PNA in Dec during -ENSO since 1983-4 has, if anything, meant a big increase in the chance for a +PNA in Jan whether random or not! I didn’t know this til just now.

Link to monthly PNAs back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

@donsutherland1

 I’m bumping this 11/16/25 post.
 
 So, following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I feel like the cold is on borrowed time. I see a 2015-type progression (just shift one month forward). I'm going with near normal mid-February, warm March, and torch April.

 

Haven’t you been calling for a mild E US starting in January with your 2017 and 2023 analogs? Not that what you’re saying can’t or won’t happen. But why should we believe you now?

 Mid Feb is actually looking warmer than normal for many areas of the E US especially away from the E coast per the EWs. But then you skip all of the way to March and even April based on what exactly? 

 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal:

 Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0:

Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11:

 The biggest challenge for a big NC snowstorm on Val. Day is going to be the progged -PNA by the model consensus (opposite of what the last storm had) as only 10% of the 6”+ storms since 1950 that occurred at RDU and/or GSO were when the PNA was sub -0.5:

Sub -0.5 PNA for 6”+ snowstorms RDU/GSO

-0.8 1/22-24/1954
-0.8 3/2-3/1960
-1.1 2/12-13/2014
-0.7 1/6-7/2017

 In contrast, there have been 4 times as many (16) that occurred with a PNA of +0.5+.

 This analysis has nothing to do with major icestorms, which I’m assuming on average have had better results than big snows when there’s a -PNA.

1 hour ago, Orange county said:

Good point

Of course they typically happen at 35 degrees. maybe 33

SLOP

Here are the 8 big storms I’m referring to from 2/25-3/3: only 2 of them (25%) were slop storms as these were mostly very high impact storms

-3/2-3/1960: 6.5” at RDU with high of only 29; 6.1” at GSO with high of only 27

-2/26/1963: 6.9” RDU with still 3” on ground 2/28

“An estimated 100 people were hospitalized due to weather-related traffic accidents and pedestrian falls.”

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=25#:~:text=The%20first%20heavy%20statewide%20snowfall,traffic%20accidents%20and%20pedestrian%20falls.

-3/1/1969: 9.3” RDU/10.7” GSO: snowcover of 2”+ through 3/4

-3/1-2/1980: 11.1” RDU and 7.9” GSO; frigid with teens during snow; 5-9” still on ground 3/4!

-2/26-27/2004: “The storm, which brought heavier 12–18 inch totals to the Piedmont/Triad area, caused significant disruption, with cold temperatures allowing the snow to stick, causing hazardous travel condition”

-2/26/1952: RDU 3.5”/GSO 6” slop storm

-2/27/1987: 5.2” RDU/7.5” GSO slop storm

-2/25-26/2015: 5.1” RDU/6.4” GSO with 1-2” still on ground 3/1

“The heavy, wet snow caused extensive power outages in many of the hardest hit counties, with some power outages extending beyond 24 hours.”

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=604
 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1  type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring. 

Although highly unlikely in any one winter, RDU’s largest concentration of 6”+ snowfalls since 1950 over any 6-7 day period isn’t til way out during the interval 2/26-3/3 with 5 of the 21 RDU storms. Also, 3 of the 16 GSO 6”+ storms since 1950 that weren’t also at RDU were during a portion of the same period.

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With temps crashing into 20s I have a feeling this gets an advisory for a decent chunk of NC due to travel issues Thursday morning even if accumulations are light 

137 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026  

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM  
EST THURSDAY...  

* WHAT...MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP  
TO ONE INCH AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A LIGHT GLAZE.  

* WHERE...A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  

* WHEN...FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY.  

* IMPACTS...ROADS, AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WILL  
LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.  

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OVER  
THE PIEDMONT TRIAD EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,  
MAINLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. ELSEWHERE, A CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT  
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES  
WILL RAPIDLY FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT CREATING HAZARDOUS  
TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY  
AREA.

29 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Yeah, that’s better for NC than your area. But you should like this next one better for your area but it’s from a followup system, not the system this thread is addressing:

0Z Euro:

2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Anyone have the 18z Euro/Euro AI? 

Euro

2 hours ago, suzook said:

Seems like this drastic cold snap we were supposed to get mid month seems to be fading. Sure we will get some cold days thrown in, maybe 3 or 4 days below normal after the 15th, but it seems like a normal February to me. Some warmth, some cold. Dare I say winter is over for GA???

 What’s your definition of “winter is over”?

 I’m going to enjoy the next 7 days of no torch with ups and downs, low dewpoints, and the progged highest temp of only ~69. The period should avg a bit BN  and this should mean great walking wx. Afterward, I’m hoping any possible torch (say upper 70s to low 80s) is fairly tame and shortlived. Hopefully there’d still be lots of lows down in the 40s.

 Looking further ahead: although the Euro Weeklies maintain a -PNA and don’t have a -NAO/-AO, they cool it off to NN last week of Feb. 

 Winter’s always my favorite season even if not cold, mainly because I enjoy the lack of bugs and humidity as well as the big swings that other seasons typically don’t have.

8 minutes ago, roardog said:

If you're looking at it from where you live, I guess it's not great but overall it quickly brings back the -WPO so they'll be a lot of arctic air pressing into the ridge so I would say it actually looks pretty wintry for the country especially as you go north and west. I know that's not good for your area though.

You’re right that I was thinking more from a E US and moreso from a SE US perspective and should have stated that. My bad. I just edited the post. See if you agree more with the new wording.

 For Michigan and all of the E US, it looks mild through ~Feb 20th. After that, when model skill is very low, it’s much more up in the air.

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are again pretty ugly looking from an E US and especially SE US perspective with a -PNA/BN H5 in SW Canada dominating the weeks after Feb 10th. Also, the -AO and -NAO essentially go away. This -PNA would be a sharp reversal to the opposite of the prior 4 week long beautiful (for the E US) +PNA dominated pattern, which I’ll be able to enjoy for another week. Hoping this -PNA doesn’t last too long and that the model is wrong on it lasting for weeks.

*Edited

The Jan ‘26 30 mb QBO came in at -25.51, Jan’s 2nd lowest on record to only 2015’s -26.7:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

 Based on the patterns since 1948, there’s a very high chance (I’d say 95%) that it will be positive by next winter, and there’s a better than even chance for the next +QBO period to start by late summer.

12Z Euro: looks good in the Triad

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The magnitude of the warmth in the West has been much more extreme than magnitude of the cold in the East. So the West has been experiencing historic warmth. While the East has been colder than recent winters, it’s nothing historic compared to our older winters of the past. 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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How cold has this winter been so far? The first 2/3 of winter 2025-26 is the 7th warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S.

 

10:22 PM · Feb 1, 2026

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬ ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 1d

Here is how all areas ranked from 1 (warmest) to 131 (coolest). Team Red is WAY BIGGER than Team Blue.

 

 

9

 

 

 

 

 

 Thanks, Chris!

1. Indeed, it’s been such a warm DJ in the W 1/2! Thus, geographically as you showed, that makes it 7th warmest for the contiguous US going back 131 years. 

 2. But based strictly on population weighting or gas heating weighting, which are great measures of energy usage for heating, I’m sure you know it hasn’t been warm at all as it has been ~1F BN in the lower 48 thanks to the heavy pop. weighting of the E Midwest/Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic/NE’s ~5BN easily outweighing the much more sparsely populated W 1/3 of the US’ ~6 AN.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/hfstwpws.txt

3. Related to projected upcoming energy usage: yesterday’s natural gas price plunged an historic 25.7%, by far the most in one day since it started trading in 1990!! This was mainly due to the much warmer models in the E US yesterday going out ~3 weeks vs how they looked on Friday, the prior trading day. Was it way overdone in relation to progged demand drop? Of course it was!

 Here are the largest NG drops in one trading day since 1990:

-25.7% 2/2/2026

-19.1% 3/18/2004

-17.5% 11/15/2018

-17.0% 6/30/2022

-16.7% 6/14/2022