GaWx

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good question...I guess the year in the aggregate?

Coldest 1958-2023 at 80+N for El Niño for aggregate period Sep 28th-Dec 31st:

1987: coldest

1976:2nd coldest

1968: 3rd coldest

Others that were also cold overall but not top 3 cold:

1979:

1977:

1963:

1958:

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know that.....I mean the entire list of cold arctic years.

I’ll check. But first tell me this: do you mean around the current time (say, the same day (Sep 28th) or late Sept through Oct) or do you mean also later?

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2004 was a weak El Nino...any other warm ENSO years on that list?

2011 was moderate La Niña while 2000 was weak La Niña. Also, both were coming off of a prior year’s Niña.

 Recent Josh update on Polo on a farm he was staying at on Baja: includes a nice video of the peak as well as aftermath, which shows that people/farm animals weren’t injured despite significant damage to the farm. The main house he was staying in handled it well though:

 After having finally gotten back to slightly AN since late Aug (that was 1st time since way back in early May), note the recent drop and how cold it was yesterday N of 80N:

 2026 having it this cold N of 80N on Sep 28th is per this site technically the coldest this early in the season in 30 years, quite notable! I say “technically” though because it only barely beat 2011, 2004, and 2000. 

 Regardless, the most interesting comparison is to 2012-25, which were all much warmer/AN on Sep 28th:

1958-2002 mean: -11C
26: -13C
25: -7C
24: -9C
23: -8C
22: -7C
21: -8C
20: -5C
19: -5C
18: -5C
17: -8C
16: -7C
15: -8C
14: -7C
13: -9C
12: -9C
2012-25 mean: -7C

So, regarding Sep 28th, 2026 is:
1. 4-8C colder than every year since 2012
2. 6C colder than the mean of 2012-2025

 Yes, I’m mainly only talking in this post about a point in time and 80N+ is a small area in relation to the N hemisphere (only 1.5%). But it is a very important 1.5% due to Arctic ice. Also, that area is just coming off the coldest late May-early Aug back to 1958 by a good margin, implying the possibility that this overall cooling up there will have legs.

 I’ll keep following this to see if there’s cooling trend follow-through up there going ahead as this is quite interesting, especially due to its implications on Arctic ice since GW had lead to the greatest warming by a good margin in the Arctic. Is it possible that the massive warming up there is done at least for awhile? Could there be a new cycle that’s just started?

@Stormchaserchuck1@bluewave@Wild Weather Monger

8 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Another core penetration by Josh. new update from him on FB

"8:15 pm  Hearing distinct howling in the distance. Things starting to bang.
Hurricane POLO in Las Barrancas."
That 8:15pm is his local time

From 5AM EDT NHC discussion:

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

Corrected for Key Message number 1.

Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja
California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas.
Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out
(WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo
was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z.There is some
uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the
data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2
hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95
kt range.

Josh is about to be hit hard by very compact Polo as he was only 21 miles from the center 1/2 hour ago with only light rain and just some breezes:
 

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

 Were in another very long -SOI streak, 47 days!

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

The never say die Fay gets within 40 miles of Bermuda on the 12Z UKMET at 168!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 0 27.3N 44.7W 1014 26
0000UTC 29.09.2026 12 26.0N 45.6W 1013 24
1200UTC 29.09.2026 24 24.8N 47.4W 1012 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 36 23.9N 49.1W 1012 25
1200UTC 30.09.2026 48 23.5N 51.7W 1011 27
0000UTC 01.10.2026 60 23.4N 53.7W 1012 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 72 24.2N 56.1W 1012 29
0000UTC 02.10.2026 84 24.9N 57.9W 1013 28
1200UTC 02.10.2026 96 25.8N 59.8W 1012 30
0000UTC 03.10.2026 108 26.5N 61.2W 1012 29
1200UTC 03.10.2026 120 27.5N 62.3W 1011 31
0000UTC 04.10.2026 132 28.6N 63.0W 1011 31
1200UTC 04.10.2026 144 29.8N 63.7W 1012 29
0000UTC 05.10.2026 156 30.9N 64.4W 1012 29
1200UTC 05.10.2026 168 32.9N 64.6W 1014 26

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

91L looks like it developed a surface circulation on visible this morning, though it is highly sheared and looks to remain as such through its existence. Would not shock me if it steals a name and boosts the seasonal NS numbers of this weird season. 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082026
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 50.4W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was 
located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 50.4 West. Hanna is 
moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east to 
east-southeast motion is forecast over the next few days.
 
Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds 
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in 
strength is forecast during the next couple of days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No doubt...the is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

 Here in the SE, I prefer either EPAC or CPAC dominating it to the MC dominating because that would normally mean a much reduced influence of the SE ridge/colder overall.

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know how you can emphatically cite how much MC influence there was in 2023, then dismiss any influence of the central basin this season....yes, El Nino is stronger, but it's not omnipotent, as evidenced by the PDO resistance owed to the Japanese warm pool.

Anyway, we'll see what happens....good chatting, as always.

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023:

Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO

Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO 

 The differences between the traditional (non-relative) NOAA weeklies and their official relative counterparts have increased notably since early June:

1. 6/3/26:

Non-relative for 6/3/26:

03JUN2026    2.5    1.5   1.3     1.2 

Relative for 6/3/26:

03JUN2026         2.0        0.9        0.7        0.7

So, the differences between traditional and relative for 6/3/26 were:

+0.5   +0.6    +0.6     +0.5

————————

2. 9/23/26:

Non-relative for 9/23/26:

 23SEP2026   4.7    3.9   3.1     1.1

Relative for 9/23/26:

23SEP2026         3.9        3.1        2.2        0.1

So, the differences for 9/23/26 are:

+0.8    +0.8    +0.9    +1.0

—————————

 Thus the differences between traditional and relative for NOAA have increased from 6/3/26 to 9/23/26 by these amounts as GW’s influence over the traditional way of measuring anomalies (30 year) has increased since early summer:

0.3   0.2   0.3   0.5

45 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Our biggest ACE producer of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to date, Finicky Fidgety Fleeting Fay! At a whopping 3.6 points, and still holding on...


 

41 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Fay is one of the longest lasting storms that failed to reach hurricane intensity I can remember. We’re into the 30’s on NHC advisories. If that convection persists there’s a chance it retains storm status today too

 The 0Z UKMET like prior runs going back days continues to keep Fay alive through the entire run. It has Fay at her strongest late in the run only barely missing going back to TS strength!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 44.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2026 0 28.7N 44.0W 1015 23
1200UTC 28.09.2026 12 27.4N 44.6W 1014 23
0000UTC 29.09.2026 24 26.4N 45.6W 1013 22
1200UTC 29.09.2026 36 25.4N 47.2W 1013 22
0000UTC 30.09.2026 48 24.7N 48.9W 1012 23
1200UTC 30.09.2026 60 24.3N 51.1W 1013 25
0000UTC 01.10.2026 72 24.1N 53.1W 1013 27
1200UTC 01.10.2026 84 24.6N 55.1W 1014 24
0000UTC 02.10.2026 96 25.2N 56.6W 1014 24
1200UTC 02.10.2026 108 26.2N 58.0W 1013 27
0000UTC 03.10.2026 120 27.1N 58.8W 1012 31
1200UTC 03.10.2026 132 28.2N 59.1W 1010 33
0000UTC 04.10.2026 144 29.0N 58.9W 1009 33
1200UTC 04.10.2026 156 29.7N 58.5W 1009 34
0000UTC 05.10.2026 168 30.1N 57.9W 1009 31

 ^Thanks. Here is this morning’s NOAA weekly update for relative (for those who don’t know, this much better takes into account GW and thus became the official way of measuring by NOAA a good while ago) Nino anomalies for the average of last week compared to the avg for the prior week: this shows 1+2 still at +3.9 and the other 3 having warmed 0.1. Below that are the comparable weeks in 1997 and 1982:
 

16SEP2026         3.9        3.0        2.1        0.0
 23SEP2026        3.9         3.1          2.2        0.1

24SEP1997         3.8        2.7        1.8        0.5 (the most E based prior to 2026)

22SEP1982         1.5        2.1        2.0        0.6
 

 Compared to past years for the same week, 1+2 region’s +3.9 remains at its highest (weekly records back to 1981) for the 2nd week in a row, beating 1997’s +3.8. Next Monday’s release will likely be the 3rd week in a row at its highest.

 Nino 3’s +3.1 is its 2nd week in a row of being at a high with it easily beating 1997’s +2.7. 

 Nino 3.4’s +2.2 beats 1982’s +2.0 for the warmest for that week and is its 3rd week in a row at a high.

 Nino 4’s +0.1 is way cooler than the other regions and also is significantly cooler than many years thus showing how much more E based 2026 is vs any other year on record as of late Sept including the prior most E based 1997:

1994 +0.9

1986 +0.8

2019 +0.7

2002 +0.7

2006 +0.6

2004 +0.6

2023 +0.5

1997 +0.5

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

@bluewave@OSUmetstud@40/70 Benchmark

 Ok, here we go again with the BoM RONI progs. As I’ve posted, the early near month prog of every near month of Apr-Aug ended up having been too warm as per their charts showing notably cooler in their final analyses vs these early progs. I now feel safe in saying that that’s happening with Sep, too, which would make 6 months in a row!

 Here was a Sep 5th prog, which had Sep near +3.0:

 Compare that to the brand new run (Sep 26th…see below), which has Sep MTD at only +2.4 with only 5 days to go (note the line from Aug to Sep is almost flat vs the steep slope of the Sep 5th run)! To compare, NOAA appears to be headed to a Sep of only ~+2.0 to +2.2.

 
 We’ll see next week where Sep. settles for both BoM and NOAA. I bet BoM settles at ~+2.5 or +2.6, well below its Sep 5th run’s +3.0 prog.

 Thus, I continue to expect that the ~+3.8 peak that it still shows for Nov will end up not verifying even closely. Before that, I predict with confidence that the +3.5 of Oct won’t verify closely. Why would the clearcut pattern of significantly too warm near month progs change now?

 Besides, it would take pretty much a record warming for a one month period to reach from Sep’s mid +2s to Oct’s +3.5. Sound familiar? Several models earlier had predicted a record warming from July to August, which we know ended up busting badly.

 To show how out of touch with reality this has been the last 3 months, this Jul 4th run had July at +2.0, Aug at +2.7, and Sep at +3.0. Jul/Aug BoM verified at only +1.7/+2.3 and Sep should verify only in the +2.5 to +2.6 area as mentioned. This warm bias is Déjà vu from 2023:

Hawaii now has the most outages in the U.S. with ~11K. Almost all are on Maui, where a whopping 15% are without power.

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/hawaii

12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Even with a phoon its not helping out with the PDO with those waters,doing nothing but reverse,those waters still should be colder and not getting warmer into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan

Why do you think they’re getting warmer?

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

 

1. The best hope for 2027-8 might be for it to be like 3 of these 8 analogs and not be La Niña for the NE:

1878-9: near to AN snow

1966-7: well AN snow

1992-3: BN to AN snow

2. Regarding the snow for the 5 that did become LN, not good:

1889-90: BN

1973-4: NN

1983-4: BN

1998-9: BN

2016-7: MBN

Lowest hourly SLP at reporting land-based station I found was 29.37” (994.6 mb) at Toms River, NJ, at 9AM and 10AM. Next lowest Atlantic City 29.39” (995.3 mb) at 11AM.

53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There's a new orange in the central Atlantic. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91):
A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east 
of Bermuda continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates the 
system is producing winds of 30-35 mph and has a sharp wind shift, 
though lacks a closed circulation due to its fast forward motion. 
Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for additional 
development of this system, especially as its forward motion slows 
down. A tropical depression could form by the early to mid portion 
of this week as the system initially moves northward before turning 
eastward tomorrow over the central Subtropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

 

Thanks.

 If that makes it to TS status and avoids getting to H status, I think that would tie an Atlantic Basin record for most named storms in a row from start of season not making it to H status.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think that’s why the long range models continue the WWBs and the extreme east based nature of this event right into next June. 

 

25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Next June? Dang does that usually happen? Thought there was mention of a rebound nina 

 Looking at El Niño seasons that at some point maxed out at +2.0C for a trimonthly in Nino 3.4 (using Eric Webb’s tables for pre-1950 and the latest version of NOAA RONI for 1950+), this is what followed in ASO as well as the subsequent fall/winter:

1877-8: ASO +0.1 followed by cold neutral
1888-9: ASO -1.1 followed by strong La Niña
1965-6: ASO 0.0 followed by cold neutral
1972-3: ASO -1.3 followed by strong La Niña
1982-3: ASO -0.6 followed by moderate La Niña
1991-2: ASO +0.1 followed by weak El Niño
1997-8: ASO -1.2 followed by strong La Niña
2015-6: ASO -0.9 followed by moderate La Niña


Tally for these 8 strongest El Niños on record:

5 La Niña (3 strong, 2 moderate) (62.5%)
2 cold neutral (25%)
1 weak El Niño (12.5%)

So, this suggests the best chance is clearly for La Niña although it also suggests to not dismiss the possibility of something else, mainly cold neutral, especially IF this were to peak later than model consensus has been suggesting (say, in Jan instead of Nov). Of the 3 of these that didn’t go to La Niña, 1877-8 peaked between NDJ and DJF while 1991-2 peaked in DJF. OTOH, 1965-6 peaked early (OND) and still didn’t go all the way to La Niña the following year as it stopped at cold neutral. Note that the 3 that were neutral in ASO never made it to La Niña.
____________________

Sources of data:

1. Webb’s tables (used for pre-1950):

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

2. NOAA RONI (1950+):
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Delays weren't too bad. My flight from PHL took off last night about 30-45 minutes delayed, but still made the destination ahead of the scheduled time.

This storm wasn't that bad, at least it won't be mentioned in the same breath as Sandy or the Blizzard of 1993 in the future.

 Thanks. Glad it wasn’t that bad there then. Between Fri and Sun, the delays at LGA were shortest on Sat due largely to the normal fewer scheduled flights that day allowing for them to handle the use of just one runway.

 But today’s avg delay is still getting longer with the arrival delay averaging 2 hrs, 19 min, at last report though that’s still not as bad as the ~2 hrs, 45 min of late Fri. The departure delays are averaging just over an hour:

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes just because it didn't seem bad where you were doesn't make it any less noteworthy.  

A retro nor'easter in late September that caused widespread coastal flooding is significant. Gusts of 70+ were recorded. 3"+ amounts will fall. This is definitely a significant and pretty rare event. 

Is the long length of it noteworthy in relation to others? Isn’t this going to end up as a 48++ hour event in many locations?