GaWx

6 hours ago, Chinook said:

I am wondering how the El Nino may already be shifting 250mb winds, even as we've just started, in summer. Obviously, we'll expect lots of subtropical jet in winter. As for now, I used the HISTDATA from NOAA to plot this... it's essentially the same as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis but it lacks some capabilities. Anyway, the 250mb zonal winds have been more westerly than average for some of the E Pacific, into southern Mexico, then out to the Atlantic. You can see the evidence of a ridge over the central USA. Now, we know El Nino tends to have these situations where the wind shear is quite high for the Atlantic hurricane season and squash that. But here's the question: if the 250mb winds were so westerly, why has the E Pacific generated some strong storms? Of course, on here, there's the Hawaii area ,which has had a hurricane this summer (and now a couple more storms by Hawaii), with the more-easterly-than-average winds as shown.

 Despite the high level of activity in the EPAC, they’ve almost entirely avoided getting close to MX. Only the two TS Boris and Cristina were right next to MX or C America and those were in early June, well before the Aug 14-Sep 4th period you showed the 250mb wind component anomalies for. 
 
 The only 4 during Aug 14th-Sep 4th that even show MX on the map were the four I’m noting below and one can see that MX isn’t even that close. All of these mainly avoided the areas with average 250 mb wind anomalies of +6+ on your map as their tracks were mainly within the +2 to +6 anomalies (yes still + but not large + anomalies and they may have formed when actual anomalies were lower since your map is just the avg for a 3 week period):

-TS Iselle:

TS Julio:

H Karina:

H Maria: closest to MX of these 4 but still 375 miles away from Cabo

Here’s ‘26 season to date:

 Compare the above ‘26 season to date map with the 2015 full season below. Note that in 2015 by today’s date, the following had already occurred that were either right at or nearer MX than the ‘26 tracks excluding Boris:

-Blanca (cat 4 H)

-Carlos (cat 1 H)

-Dolores (cat 4 H)

-Kevin (60 mph TS) not too far from Cabo

-Linda (cat 3H) not too far from Baja

 A batch of showers formed along the cosst in SC 2 hours ago and has just moved SW into my area with heavy rains and initial gusty winds starting ~2PM. This is adding up nicely and is this my first significant rain of the month.

Edit: It rained for only ~20 minutes and this didn’t add up to as much as I had hoped for. But I still got a not too shabby ~0.35”, the most by far this month to date.

After being pretty flat in August/first few days of Sept, the relative 3.4 OISST anomaly has risen sharply the last two days:

Sept 4th relative 3.4: +2.254

Sept 6th relative 3.4 anomaly: +2.429, a rise of 0.175 in just two days…that’s the most rapid two day rise on this entire chart as it is the most rapid two day rise since June 3rd-5th, which is not on this chart:

The daily WCS PDO has risen back substantially the last 7 days ending yesterday with it up to -0.9, the highest since way back on July 2nd, vs ~-1.65 one week earlier:

12 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Almost to +3C on CRW. CRW mostly measures surface temps, so at some point I would expect it to mix down which would increase OISST but decrease CRW. 

 

Here’s the version of CRW anomalies for Nino 3.4 that best takes into account GW in determining anomalies: it’s +2.5C and rising:

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's gone more east-based than I had envisioned, NVM guidance...which was way off. I don't love that, but like I have been saying, I don't think it makes much of a difference when it's this strong. If anything, it probably helps to limit any residual MC influence that would destructively interfere with potemtial big storm windows. So, while that probably puts the nail in the coffin on any hopes of avoiding a pretty mild season, it  may paradoxically help in terms of  landing that big fish.

I may have to shift from a basin-wide to east-based composite, which makes it more likely that the mean ridge ends up se of Hudson Bay.

CANSIPS appears to have a significant Modoki bias based on several years of data. I thought it had this bias even before this year.

On 9/4/2026 at 1:04 PM, GaWx said:

Nino 1+2 (keep in mind that this is non-relative) had a strong rise yesterday. Get ready for a tweet from Adam, Abraham, and/or others addressing this saying record breaking yada yada yada. Keep in mind though that records from 1982-3 and 1997-8 are based on weeklies, not dailies. Also, highest relative WEEKLY in 1983 was +4.6 and in 1997 was +4.1. Let’s see where the current calendar week relative 1+2 on Monday. It won’t be anywhere near +4.6 although it may get close to +4.0.

 

 

 The latest relative weekly for Nino 1+2 comes in about where I expected, +3.9. This for the 2nd week in a row is at a record high (back to 1981) for the week, warmer than 1997’s +3.6 and 0.4 warmer than the previous week’s +3.5.

 The highest relative 1+2 on record for any week is +4.6 (1983) and the highest relative in 1997 for any week was +4.1, which was set twice.

 Regarding the relative for other regions, Nino 3 warmed barely while 3.4 and 4 stayed the same. The changes overall mean an even more E based Nino than the prior week showed:

  9AUG2026         3.2        2.5        1.8        0.0
 26AUG2026         3.5        2.6        1.8        0.1
 02SEP2026         3.9        2.7        1.8        0.1

 For comparison:

03SEP1997         3.6        2.8        2.0        0.4

 So, early Sept. ‘26 is slightly more E based than the previous most E based early Sept. (back to 1981) of 1997.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

15 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN

I assume you know that the warmest month of the winter of 1982-3 in the E US, including SE, was Dec by a wide margin. It was a bonafide torch, the only month like that in the SE to NE. The remainder in the SE was pretty close to normal to slightly BN in some areas.

 As a near coastal resident who was directly affected heavily by FIVE H/TS 2016-24, I’m very much enjoying the break from the stress of threats!

 However, looking back at the 6 other El Niño seasons with <4.4 ACE through Sep 6th tells me to still be cautious for the rest of the season, especially late Sept through mid-Oct:

1) 1941: -TS TX/LA border mid Sep
-H TX late Sep
-TS Windwards/MH Honduras/Nicaragua/H Belize late Sep
-H NW Bahamas/MH S FL/H FL Pan early Oct
-TS SE Bahamas/FL Big Bend mid Oct

2) 1929:
-MH NW Bahamas and S FL tip/H FL Pan late Sep

3) 1914: 
-TS FL/GA border mid Sep

4) 1905:
-TS Belize/LA late Sep
-TS W Haiti early Oct
-TS LA early Oct

5) 1904: 
-H upper SC mid Sep
-TS Belize early Oct
-H C Cuba/S FL mid Oct
-TS FL Pan early Nov

6) 1876:
-H/Leewards/MH VI and PR/H Hisp/E Cuba/NC mid Sep
-TS Windwards late Sep/H Nicaragua early Oct
-H Caymans/MH W Cuba/H Keys and SW FL/TS Bermuda mid Oct

 These six very quiet first half of season El Niño analogs are suggesting an avg of 3 TCs (range 1-5), including 1.5 H (range 0-3) and 0.8 MH (range 0-2) yet to come that would have significant to major land impacts. Hopefully though it will be most like 1914 or otherwise 1905 at the worst!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

18 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Might as well circle my house and add D4 on next drought monitor. We’ll have to wait 10 more months for another AN month of rain I guess 

1. This very strong El Niño has a good chance to start helping out you and other SE dry areas by Nov and hopefully would then continue on/off through March as climo suggests.

2. I ended up getting very little from the late afternoon thunderstorms. It was only ~0.04”.

I’ve been getting light rain from thunderstorms during the last ~1/2 hour as it started ~4PM. I just heard pretty loud thunder from one fairly close CTG lightning strike.

12 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Hunga-Tonga actually warmed the globe w/ a distinct delayed temp spike in 2023-24 as it ejected an enormous amount of WV into the stratosphere, which is normally very dry.
 

 I’m not disagreeing with you because I’m, myself, quite suspicious about the 1/15/22 Hunga-Tonga causing that delayed temp spike earlier in ‘23 than what the ‘23 El Niño should have caused. But if you were to post that in the CC forum, you’d get a lot of opposition or at least doubt based on past Hunga-Tonga discussions in there. Several folks there have downplayed it because they think the warming effect was minimal/far lower than that early ‘23 temp spike and they backed it up with at least one source fwiw.

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It is, but both sites are in different Himalayan subregions with different topography and wind exposure. 

 Thanks. But this graph has avg for entire summer well over 0C? This is far warmer than what Chris Martz was suggesting about the site of the collapse (i.e., only occasionally reaching to barely above freezing), isn’t it?

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Everest base camp is about 160 km from the site of the bedrock/glacial collapse that occurred last month.

Thanks, Don. Does that big a difference in temps for just 160 km away and 164 meters/538 feet elevation jibe with what you’d expect?

 Dry adiabatic rate is 3C/5.4F per 1000 feet, correct?

 So, on 2nd thought, maybe?

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^ Should get some 500mb effect in the N. Pacific if that forecast verifies for early Oct

Although this 12Z 9/5/26 CFSv2 ens. AAM fcast is THE highest I’ve seen for the entire 35 day period, I realize that it has a + bias, especially the further out in the forecast period. I still haven’t seen anything forecasted at 4+ to verify even closely and even many of the 3+ forecast days have been overdone.
 

 This has 4+ for all 4 members by day 11 (Sept 15th), which along with the 0Z 9/5/26 forecast is at the earliest I’ve ever seen that high. It has 3+ starting on Sep. 8th. But as I alluded to, many runs had 3+ for all of mid to late Aug and all of Sept and few, if any, days actually hit 3+ since mid Aug. It even dipped briefly to just below +2 in late Aug! 

 In this case, I expect it will reach 3+ within a few days based on how steep it has it rising now. But regarding it hitting 4+ Sep. 15th or even after, I’ll believe it when I see it!

4 hours ago, chubbs said:

Robert Rhode has estimated temperatures near the Nepal collapse site at 5200 meters using ERA and local temperature data. Below are several quotes and graphs from his Blue Sky thread. 

The collapsed glacier site was historically not far from the melting threshold in summer with only a short period of summer melting expected. Unfortunately, global warming has greatly expanded the duration and intensity of summer melt in this region at 5200m elevation.

Summer 2026 is estimated to have been 4th warmest on record for this Nepali glacier, behind 2024, 2025, and 2022. In addition, the collapse occurred at the end of a 6-day heatwave that featured several of the warmest August days on record.

https://bsky.app/profile/rarohde.bsky.social/post/3muom4fol422p

I’m admittedly confused. Are we looking at the temp. data for the same place? Per my post from 3 days ago:

“Highest and lowest recorded temperatures at Everest Base Camp (EBC) depend on which camp and which dataset, but reliable observations come from automatic weather stations (AWS) installed at the South Base Camp (Nepal side, ~5,364 m) and other nearby high-altitude stations.

Summary of best-available values (observations and published AWS records, through May 2024):

• Highest recorded air temperature
  • South (Nepal) Base Camp AWS: about −1.0 °C to +1.0 °C on the warmest days in late spring/early summer (typically May). Many published station summaries and expedition logs report peak values near 0 °C; a commonly cited peak is ~+0.5 °C. Slightly warmer spot measurements in sunlight or lower-elevation tent sites can exceed +1 °C briefly, but sustained, instrumented air-temperature peaks at the official South Base Camp are around 0 °C to +1 °C.

@donsutherland1@Typhoon Tip

Lol!

 Clemson at LSU originally had a 6:30PM CDT scheduled kickoff. But due to a lightning delay/heavy thunderstorms, they’re not kicking off til 8:40PM CDT! This supposedly would be the latest start in LSU history!

 I read that Lane Kiffin does not have either of the former pros on its roster for tonight. He’s worried due to a lawsuit by the SEC against LSU. The concern is that LSU would possibly have to forfeit any games with them on the roster. There’s also the worry about eventually being thrown out of the SEC although that’s very highly unlikely.

 The worst E US Sept heatwave on record was during El Niño (1925).

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Sept 2026:

 

Sept 2023:

Here are the relevant SLP maps for JFM NAO:

JFM ’24: strong -NAO

JFM ‘27: even stronger -NAO, which jibes with your comparison of JFM ‘24 to JFM ‘27.

 However, note that there are stronger SLP contrasts worldwide in ‘27 vs ‘24 and not just in the NAO region. Note that in ‘24, only ~1% has +2+ mb vs ~~10% in ‘27. Similarly, the % with -2- mb is sig. higher in ‘27 vs ‘24. Not sure what to make of that.

23 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24. 

I’ll add that the globe is warmer over last 3 years helping to add to the huge increase in >+40m anomalies.

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m

 

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

‘26:

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

‘26: