GaWx
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Posts posted by GaWx
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Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd:
June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated.
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The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues:
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11 hours ago, bluewave said:
Just remember that with our last super El Niño which was much weaker than this one, the seasonal forecasts including the ECWMF were significantly too cool for what verified from the long range forecasts.
Forecast from August 2023
Verification
10 hours ago, mitchnick said:And don't forget that the last 2 winters the Euro seasonal was too warm in the NE. And since it is impossible to have statistical data that supports the notion that the current Euro seasonal is inherently biased too cool for Niños in its current upgraded version (and I don't see that being possible since there have been upgrades since the 2023 season), I honestly don't see the relevance of prior year forecasts. All we can take away, imho, is that the Euro seasonal has been inaccurate with its winter temp forecasts in the NE 3 out of the last 3 years, twice being too warm and once being too cool.
Edit: And let's not forget this month's forecast looks very similar to other seasonal modeling.
The NDJ Euro fcast made July 2023 was actually pretty close in most of the U.S. as per this post I made (see link below) with a good portion within 1F. Only the N tier was several degrees too cold:In addition as I said in the same post, the Euro July NDJ of both ‘25 and ‘24 were significantly too warm in the E US.
-‘23: I could call it either close overall or net slightly too cold due to the N tier-‘22 was a bit too cold in most of the E US, but that’s the only one like that since 2017!
-‘21 was slightly too warm in the E US
-‘20 and ‘19 were pretty close in the E US
-‘18 was a bit too warm NE US and close in the MidAtlantic/SE
-’17 was too warm in the E US
So for E US in their July NDJ forecasts, the tally is 5 too warm (‘25, ‘24, ‘21, ‘18, ‘17) and only 2 too cold even if I count ‘23 (‘23 and ‘22) as too cold. That in no way suggests the likelihood that the ‘26 NDJ just issued will verify too cold (sample size of 9 is decent).
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The MEI for May/June was +1.5. How does this compare to past years?
1997 +2.3
1987 +2.1
2015 +1.9
2026 +1.5
Also, the MEI warming from AM to MJ was 1.2, which is 2nd fastest to 1997’s 1.6.
The MEI warming from MA to MJ was 2.1, which ties with 1997 for the fastest.
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2 minutes ago, roardog said:
If I’m looking at the BOM correctly, isn’t it already too warm for early July?
If those were for early July I’d agree. But the BoM little circles represent the average for the full months.
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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
New July BOM model run for region 3.4 and region 3
Week midpoint…1+2…..…3….…..3.4……....429APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5
06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5
13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6
20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6
27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7
03JUN2026 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.7
10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
17JUN2026 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.8
24JUN2026 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.6
01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 -
I’m here at Tybee Island with some friends in a severe thunderstorm that we just experienced! It was something else! We were inside and I watched it closely!
Edit: However, nothing measurable fell at my home well to the W.
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46 minutes ago, mitchnick said:
Couldn't agree more. It tells me that the other seasonal models aren't far off with their progs of a winter offering legit chances for snow and cold, obviously interspersed with AN periods that will push the mean to only a little AN. Of course, without seeing the monthly maps, there's a but of speculation on my part.
For the US averaged out, this is the coldest NDJ on any Euro July forecast back to 2019. Not only that but keep in mind they’ve averaged out too warm since 2017 (significant warm bias as more have verified too warm than too cold):
‘26:
‘25: sig. too warm E US
‘24: significantly too warm most of lower 48
‘23: close
‘22: a bit too cold E US/significantly too warm W US
‘21: slightly too warm E US/close W US
‘20: pretty close E US; too warm W US
‘19: close
-July ‘18 forecast for NDJ was a bit too warm C US to NE and close Mid Atlantic/SE US; was close in W US
-July ‘17 fcast for NDJ: too warm E US, too cold W US
**Edit:
So, for E US, the July Euro NDJ forecast the last nine years averaged too warm in the E US 5 times, close 3 times, and too cold only once. When combined with the July forecast for NDJ being the coldest of the last 9 years, there’s little reason to favor a warm E US NDJ overall at this point based on the Euro.-
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31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:
Euro seasonal temps and precip thru January don't look bad to me in the east. Very wet with surface temps dropping as we head into winter. I bet February would look great, but the free maps stop at January. H5 looks reasonably tasty too imho. Naysayers, have at it. Lol
Link to a free parameters.
This (NDJ) looks good to me with no suggestion of a warm NDJ in most of the U.S. Actually, H5/2m in a good portion of the E US is near the lowest in the NH! This looks fairly typical of El Niño with the coldest/warmest US anoms in the South/North:
Prospects remain excellent to relieve the E US drought, which is typical of strong+ El Niño:
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On July 4th, the DMI mean Arctic temp finally reached and exceeded 0C with it at +.01C. That sets a new record latest 1st above freezing as it replaces the old record latest of June 20th, which had been set in 2013.
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23 hours ago, GaWx said:
As of July 2nd per the DMI data, the mean Arctic temperature based on 80N+ has still not quite reached freezing although it was only barely below it yesterday. Going back to 1958, the latest day it first hit freezing before 2026 was way back on June 20th (2013)!
Daily Mean Arctic temp. in degrees Kelvin: freezing is at 273.15 (July 2nd was 0.1C below freezing):
0260618 169 272.561676
20260619 170 272.634399
20260620 171 272.647522
20260621 172 272.469360
20260622 173 272.153870
20260623 174 271.679565
20260624 175 271.918213
20260625 176 272.421326
20260626 177 272.655334
20260627 178 272.803802
20260628 179 272.680786
20260629 180 272.732056
20260630 181 272.903717
20260701 182 272.963715
20260702 183 273.045624https://download.dmi.dk/pub/plus80N_temperatureindex/meanT2026_running.txt
July 3rd cooled back very slightly. So, the DMI 80N+ mean Arctic temp still hasn’t reached 0C! The old record latest was 6/20/2013.
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At 1:40 my sis told me that she was in one of the worst popup thunderstorms she’s ever experienced while driving with high winds, very heavy rain, and small hail in Buckhead near Roswell Rd! Temps suddenly plunged from a sunny 90s to 72 on her car therm! It ended about as fast as it started.
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29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:
Most expansive heatwave in history? Lmao. I guess the 1930s-50s just removed themselves from history. Not to mention 1988, 1995, 2012, etc
Very intense? Absolutely! One of the most expansive? No way! That along with trying to connect the developing super-Nino with summer heat made his post bad to me.
But then Chris Martz had a terrible reply, himself, when he downplayed the U.S. and European heatwaves by saying “It’s called ‘summer’”. Also, he criticized Jeff’s use of the term “heat dome” for the heatwaves even though it has been used frequently in the pro-met community for decades!So, both of them, who are looking at this from opposing standpoints more or less, looked bad here imho.
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CFS 10 day mean relative prog is at a new record high prog for its Nov peak in 3.4:
SON/OND peak +3.2 vs +3.1 earlier vs +2.5 record (1982):
N peak +3.4 vs +3.3 earlier vs +2.7 record (1982):
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As of 10AM, Philly is 4F warmer than 24 hours ago (94 vs 90)!
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As of July 2nd per the DMI data, the mean Arctic temperature based on 80N+ has still not quite reached freezing although it was only barely below it yesterday. Going back to 1958, the latest day it first hit freezing before 2026 was way back on June 20th (2013)!
Daily Mean Arctic temp. in degrees Kelvin: freezing is at 273.15 (July 2nd was 0.1C below freezing):
0260618 169 272.561676
20260619 170 272.634399
20260620 171 272.647522
20260621 172 272.469360
20260622 173 272.153870
20260623 174 271.679565
20260624 175 271.918213
20260625 176 272.421326
20260626 177 272.655334
20260627 178 272.803802
20260628 179 272.680786
20260629 180 272.732056
20260630 181 272.903717
20260701 182 272.963715
20260702 183 273.045624https://download.dmi.dk/pub/plus80N_temperatureindex/meanT2026_running.txt
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2 minutes ago, hooralph said:
i thought I saw KNYC tied the record high low at 84, but the hourly obs say 84.9. Did we tie or break it?
Per this, the lowest at NYC as of 8AM today was 84:
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At C Park, the lowest so far today is 84. IF that were to hold up through 11:59PM, it would tie the all time highest low there on record!
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18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:
I stand corrected. 104+ anywhere up there is insane
Indeed! I’m not at all trying to minimize the heatwave in the NYC area. There has been some talk about Central Park running a couple of degrees cooler for highs than in the past due to increased foliage (showing the cooling power of foliage). Even so, 100F with increased foliage is obviously still very intense. Also, C Park had a low of only a ridiculous 82 yesterday!
At C Park, the lowest so far today is 84. IF that were to hold up through 11:59PM, it would tie the all time highest low there, which goes way back to 1869!
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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:
NYC hit 104 yesterday at both LGA and Central Park
Whereas La Guardia did hit 104 and Newark hit 105, the official Central Park high actually was “only” 100.
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28 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:
Round 2 in 10 days?
Once again the GFS (6Z) is way too hot in the extended. Even if H5 reaches the near record high upper 590s as it has, highs on July 14-15th will not reach anywhere near as hot as this shows even with the drought:
6Z GFS July 14th highs: for example 112 at SAV is loltastic as that’s compared to the 105 all-time hottest on record there back 155 years!
6Z GFS July 15th highs: also not going to happen
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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:
This is the first time that a number of stations in the East approached their all-time warmest temperature with a developing super El Niño.
Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature
for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-02 1 104.0 1933-08-01 through 1933-08-01 2 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 103.0 1995-07-16 through 1995-07-16 - 103.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 3 102.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1991-07-20 through 1991-07-20 - 102.0 1991-07-19 through 1991-07-19
Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature
for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2026-07-02 1 107.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 104.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 104.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 2 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 4 102.0 2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02 - 102.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 5 101.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24
Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature
for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1873-12-04 to 2026-07-02 1 106.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 2 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 104.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 3 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 103.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 103.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 - 103.0 1930-07-21 through 1930-07-21
Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature
for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1888-01-01 to 2026-07-02 1 106.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 1918-08-06 through 1918-08-06 4 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07 - 103.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1898-07-03 through 1898-07-03 5 102.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1988-07-17 through 1988-07-17 This jibes with my response 3 posts above yours to Jeff B.’s implied false connection of the current developing super-Nino to increased very intense heat in the E US based on his Tweet. Only the summer of 1991 was hot overall in the E US as I said, which is essentially agreed with by your lists. I’m referring to Poughkeepsie’s 102 on 7/19/1991. None of the other developing super-Ninos prior to 2026-7 are on any of your 4 lists.
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3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:
I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing.
I don’t agree at all with Jeff B. implying a connection of super-Nino and the current E US heatwave. The mean temp in July (and also in summer as a whole) comes out close to normal rather than hot in the E US when averaging RONI based super strong El Niños. Hardly any were hot. 1957, 65, 72, and 97 were slightly cool. 1982 and 2015 were NN. Only 1991 was hot. That’s just 1 of the 7! That’s enough for me to say that the upcoming super-El Nino in combo with GW is not the direct cause for the current E US heatwave as Jeff said. GW, by itself, obviously favors hotter heatwaves than when the Earth was cooler. But the supposed super-El Nino piece of this, itself, correlating to E US summer heat does not compute to me at all.I also don’t at all agree with Jeff calling this one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves. That’s simply not true. Intense in the VA to Boston corridor? Yes. But not one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves.
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1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:
Thank you, but I don’t think I’m going to do July. I’m currently too busy to take enough time to analyze the data (forecast and historic) well.
2026-2027 Super El Nino
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
The latest CFS (10 days of runs ens. mean) is at the highest of any I’ve saved with relative peaks way up at ~3.4 (Nov) and nearly 3.25 (SON and OND)! The record highest since 1950 are well below these:
1 month: 2.69 (Jan 1983), 2.56 (Dec 1982), 2.48 (Nov 2015), 2.44 (Oct 1997), and 2.43 (Nov 1997)
3 month: 2.52 (NDJ 1982-3), 2.49 (DJF 1982-3), 2.43 (OND 1982), 2.38 (SON 1997), and 2.37 (NDJ 2015-6)
The most rapid monthly rates of warming of the mean is from July’s ~1.46 to Aug’s ~2.30, a warming of ~0.84, followed by a warming of ~0.70 from Aug’s ~2.30 to Sep’s ~3.00. So, the progged CFS rate of warming from July to Sep of ~1.54 will be the key period to see if the progged peak is actually going to verify closely. The record fastest 2 month warming is only ~1.3 (Nov 1954-Jan 1955 and Aug-Oct 1982).
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Note that they still show near record breaking rates of cooling Dec-Mar after these record shattering peaks with a mean plunge from Dec’s ~2.95 to Jan’s ~2.16 to Feb’s ~1.6 to Mar’s ~0.9. That 3 month progged cooling of ~2.05 Dec to Mar would be similar to the record rate of cooling for Dec to Mar of 1972-3, which was 1.87.