GaWx

Hawaii now has the most outages in the U.S. with ~11K. Almost all are on Maui, where a whopping 15% are without power.

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/hawaii

12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Even with a phoon its not helping out with the PDO with those waters,doing nothing but reverse,those waters still should be colder and not getting warmer into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan

Why do you think they’re getting warmer?

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

 

1. The best hope for 2027-8 might be for it to be like 3 of these 8 analogs and not be La Niña for the NE:

1878-9: near to AN snow

1966-7: well AN snow

1992-3: BN to AN snow

2. Regarding the snow for the 5 that did become LN, not good:

1889-90: BN

1973-4: NN

1983-4: BN

1998-9: BN

2016-7: MBN

Lowest hourly SLP at reporting land-based station I found was 29.37” (994.6 mb) at Toms River, NJ, at 9AM and 10AM. Next lowest Atlantic City 29.39” (995.3 mb) at 11AM.

53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There's a new orange in the central Atlantic. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91):
A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east 
of Bermuda continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates the 
system is producing winds of 30-35 mph and has a sharp wind shift, 
though lacks a closed circulation due to its fast forward motion. 
Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for additional 
development of this system, especially as its forward motion slows 
down. A tropical depression could form by the early to mid portion 
of this week as the system initially moves northward before turning 
eastward tomorrow over the central Subtropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

 

Thanks.

 If that makes it to TS status and avoids getting to H status, I think that would tie an Atlantic Basin record for most named storms in a row from start of season not making it to H status.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think that’s why the long range models continue the WWBs and the extreme east based nature of this event right into next June. 

 

25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Next June? Dang does that usually happen? Thought there was mention of a rebound nina 

 Looking at El Niño seasons that at some point maxed out at +2.0C for a trimonthly in Nino 3.4 (using Eric Webb’s tables for pre-1950 and the latest version of NOAA RONI for 1950+), this is what followed in ASO as well as the subsequent fall/winter:

1877-8: ASO +0.1 followed by cold neutral
1888-9: ASO -1.1 followed by strong La Niña
1965-6: ASO 0.0 followed by cold neutral
1972-3: ASO -1.3 followed by strong La Niña
1982-3: ASO -0.6 followed by moderate La Niña
1991-2: ASO +0.1 followed by weak El Niño
1997-8: ASO -1.2 followed by strong La Niña
2015-6: ASO -0.9 followed by moderate La Niña


Tally for these 8 strongest El Niños on record:

5 La Niña (3 strong, 2 moderate) (62.5%)
2 cold neutral (25%)
1 weak El Niño (12.5%)

So, this suggests the best chance is clearly for La Niña although it also suggests to not dismiss the possibility of something else, mainly cold neutral, especially IF this were to peak later than model consensus has been suggesting (say, in Jan instead of Nov). Of the 3 of these that didn’t go to La Niña, 1877-8 peaked between NDJ and DJF while 1991-2 peaked in DJF. OTOH, 1965-6 peaked early (OND) and still didn’t go all the way to La Niña the following year as it stopped at cold neutral. Note that the 3 that were neutral in ASO never made it to La Niña.
____________________

Sources of data:

1. Webb’s tables (used for pre-1950):

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

2. NOAA RONI (1950+):
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Delays weren't too bad. My flight from PHL took off last night about 30-45 minutes delayed, but still made the destination ahead of the scheduled time.

This storm wasn't that bad, at least it won't be mentioned in the same breath as Sandy or the Blizzard of 1993 in the future.

 Thanks. Glad it wasn’t that bad there then. Between Fri and Sun, the delays at LGA were shortest on Sat due largely to the normal fewer scheduled flights that day allowing for them to handle the use of just one runway.

 But today’s avg delay is still getting longer with the arrival delay averaging 2 hrs, 19 min, at last report though that’s still not as bad as the ~2 hrs, 45 min of late Fri. The departure delays are averaging just over an hour:

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes just because it didn't seem bad where you were doesn't make it any less noteworthy.  

A retro nor'easter in late September that caused widespread coastal flooding is significant. Gusts of 70+ were recorded. 3"+ amounts will fall. This is definitely a significant and pretty rare event. 

Is the long length of it noteworthy in relation to others? Isn’t this going to end up as a 48++ hour event in many locations?

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Like I said, we cancelled none in NYC yesterday. And 31, over the course of the day is as good as it will get with marginal weather.

The FAA is planning delays at JFK and EWR for wind later this afternoon.

 

LGA, at a more normal schedule today, it already running delays  with single runways ops. Todays schedule needs 2 runways

As long as the worst weather stays to the overnight hours, the weather forecasted for the day will not lead to mass cancellations. It just isnt bad enough or slowing things down enough

 The new LGA update shows much longer delays than earlier with the quite strong winds along with lingering light rain/fog:

 LAGUARDIA ARPT LGT RAIN 61 59 93 NE30G47 29.54R FOG

 The big ups and downs of the WCS daily PDO continue with nearly a 1.00 drop the last 10 days to -1.43:

 Since May 23rd, I count only 5 days in either the MC or the IO and that rarity in those regions looks to continue at least through Oct 11th. That would most likely mean as of Oct 11th only 5 of the prior 142 days (3.5%) in MC/IO, easily a record low % for that long of a period since records started 6/1/1974:

Suffolk power outages have increased to the highest I’ve seen there for this storm at 3.2% or 20.6K:

https://poweroutage.us/area/county/830

——————

Also: due to visibility

32 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Ok here we go, this is great to see. We've been waiting for the recurving typhoons to show up and now it sure seems like they very well could be. We had that one occur what about a week ago now albeit not very impressive at all. My read on that one was I took it as a baby step. Now we have another one slated to do so. Typhoon Surigae.

 

 

Beyond this one. It looks like chances are pretty good for another one to follow in about another week's time. As most models as of this morning give that impression. Sending these into the north pacific adds the fuel to help fire an Aleutian low. Wouldn't you know it, we're seeing a semblance of one on ensembles now. I don't think these things are unrelated and it will be really interesting to follow this. Feels right on time during October too.

 

Oct 5-11 has been similarly cool/warm in the E/W 1/2 of the U.S. for 4 runs:

18 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

31 cancellations today for LGA.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today/klga

Thanks. But tomorrow is a busier day from the afternoon onward than Saturday I believe.

Do you think he’s referring only to his airline when he said no cancellations?

17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

We didnt cancel 1 flight. Until 4pm, there were no ATC delays at all. Simply wasnt weather to call for it.

 

Saturday schedule is also much reduced at LGA. They can operate on one runway easily. JFK is going 7 days a week

Thanks. Does that mean tomorrow PM could return to big delays at LGA like yesterday? I’m asking because my nephew has a 4PM flight leaving from there.

LaGuardia for now is doing much better than 24 hours ago, when avg delays were nearly 3 hrs, as the avg delay now is <15 minutes.

JFK avg delay is 50 minutes.

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Not odd for Ulster with elevation and lots of forest. 

Thanks. Ulster’s now at 17k out of ~100k customers vs Suffolk being at 10k with >6 times the # of customers! Ulster has almost half the outages in the entire state.

https://poweroutage.us/area/county/833

Kind of odd: Ulster Cty now has highest # and % of outages in NY with 11k/11%. Is this accurate? Neighboring counties are much lower.
 

Suffolk is at 9k/1.4%. 

https://poweroutage.us/area/county/833

Radar suggests several mainly dry hours coming in NYC.

KSAV low of 51 is coldest this early in season since 1999.

13 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Chilly morning

 

 

That 51 at KSAV is the earliest that cold since 1999!

Delays are currently much shorter on avg vs last evening at LaGuardia, when they were nearing 3 hrs…maybe then will turn out to be the worst of it??

Suffolk is still by far leading the outages in the area with 10K although that’s still not too bad on a % basis (1.6%). 

Nassau has 5.5K/1.2%.

Total in NY state: 23K

NJ: 31K with highest # in Ocean Cty at 8K (2.5%) although highest % in NW NJ’s Warren Cty (5.4%)

CT: 14K with highest % of 4% in E CT

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Power outages are highest in Suffolk as a %, but even there that’s only at 0.5%.

Suffolk outages have increased from ~3K (0.5%) to ~5K (0.8%) within the last hour.