GaWx

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

Top 10 cold period past two and a half weeks for eastern US:

https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/2019729810914992195

Dominant indices Jan 15-Feb 4:
- moderate to strong +PNA
- strong to very strong -AO
- moderate to very strong -EPO
- moderate to strong -WPO
- so one of the greatest 3 week long combos of +PNA, -AO, -EPO, -WPO on record
- strong to moderate MJO phases 6-7 and weak phase 8
- neutral NAO averaged out with no strong anomalies 

11 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Its still the same time period and there's still a decent chance of wintry weather IMO. No guarantees of warmth and severe yet. 

0Z Euro: nice snow NE NC AM of Feb 13th:

33 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

All 2m temp forecasts are the same though. It’s just how the anomalies are interpreted. 

Would agree that EPS are running slightly cold of GEFS/GEPS suites. 

 I hate to see such large discrepancies in anomalies when comparing sources. It’s not comforting to say the least.

 Maybe they are and I have no evidence to the contrary at least right now, but how do you know for sure that the 2m temp forecasts themselves between Euro native and WB are the same?

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

I believe the ECMWF native site is still using 1981-2010 climate normals, while the wxbell site is using the warmer 1991-2020 normals. The actual 2m temps should be the same, but the newer 1991-2020 normals will appear colder because the baseline is warmer, which is what we should expect in a warmer climate. 

Raw 2m temps are produced by the models themselves. It’s up to what dataset you want to use for the anomalies. 

 There’s no indication that the Euro native site is using 1981-2010 for its climo base. Is it possible you’re mixing up Tropical Tidbits with the Euro native base? TT does use 1981-2010 as that’s what’s shown on many of their maps. Regarding the Euro native site itself, it refers to the last 20 years for its climo base. So, that means a base of 2006-2025 for the in-house Euro maps. Compared to the 1991-2020 base of WxBell, that means the climo base for the native Euro maps is actually warmer than rather than colder than WB. So, if the only difference between WB and native Euro were the climo base and WB didn’t have algorithm issues, then the WB anomaly maps would actually be a little warmer rather than colder than the native Euro maps. So, that means that the WB cold bias is actually even worse rather than better when considering climo base differences!

 So, there really is a big problem with WB Euro maps. Thus, if anything, WB Euro Weekly NYC 2m anomalies on that map are >3F too cold…perhaps closer to 4F too cold! And don’t forget that out west, that WB map is 5-10F too cold before considering climo base differences based on what I just showed! @MJO812@donsutherland1

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies for last week of February into March look stormy and cold 

Anthony,

 It’s important to be aware that the WxBell Euro EW 2m maps have a notable 2m temp cold bias as I’ve posted about repeatedly. I have an easy way to show this by posting the in-house Euro weeklies maps covering the same period and comparing to this WB map.

Examples:

 -The Rockies and west coast are a very cold -3F to -10F for 2/21-3/22 on your map. What?!?
 
 -Chicago/OH Valley are -2F, Asheville is -3F, Detroit is -4F, DC/Richmond are -3F, ATL/CLT are -1F.

 -Now check out ECMWF’s in-house maps for the truth: no BN on any maps covering the same period for the locations I listed

2/23-3/1:

3/2-8:

3/9-15:

3/16-22:

 So based on the truth, the Rockies and much of the West should be a bit AN instead of well BN. So, that means they’re mainly 5F to 10F too cold on WB!

 The E cities I listed should be NN in Chic, Det, Ohio Valley, DC, Richmond, and +1F in ATL/CLT/ASH. So, that means these locations are 2-4F too cold on WB.

 WxBell has NYC at -4F. The truth is that they should be -1F. So, NYC is 3F too cold on WB.

@donsutherland1this remains a problem

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It looks like they fixed whatever always led to a big negative departure over Lake Superior.

It’s the WxBell CFS, not their Euro, that has those weird issues. WxBell Euro just has a straight 2m cold bias. And you must have meant a S. Lake Michigan - departure (not Superior, which actually typically has the opposite, a relative + departure in the E portion) just as this CFS has:

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx Could you please share the Euro Seasonal for March if you have it? I keep seeing people crying on twitter that it’s a “torch” but I have yet to see a single image. Just wondering if it’s actually as bad as they are saying? 

 Tweets are often exaggerations as we know. The new Euro for March is still mainly warmer than normal but no torch as it’s mainly only slightly AN since it’s cooler than the forecast from a month ago:

Last month’s Euro for March:

Today’s Euro for March: not as mild with only ~1F AN NE, 2 AN DC, Chicago, Detroit, and RDU, and 2-2.5 AN ATL/MEM for example:

April also came in cooler than it had last month.

 I am wary, however, about WxBell Euro 2m temp anomalies having a cold bias due to their algos. So, you probably have to add at least 1F to what I said to adjust for that bias. So, more like at least 2F AN NE and at least 3-3.5 AN in the other cities I listed. So, again not as warm as last month’s forecast and not really a torch, but still fairly mild especially after the bias correction. I can’t find March by itself at the ecmwf site, itself, unfortunately.

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

That’s during the morning of 2/13, the morning before Valentine’s Day. I was referring to a storm on Val. Day that’s been showing up on some runs and being posted about here. Regardless, it’s still way out there and will change.

12Z GFS and Euro ask “what Val. Day storm?” They fwiw show sunny high pressure. But that’s still 9 days out, a relative eternity in relation to model accuracy.

37 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Come on, you're smart enough to know better surely.

 Good point! I’m just trying to generate discussion. I know he’s always been very strongly cold-biased (due to a combo of his being a cold weenie plus cold’s much better for business/traffic/likes) and I’ve never been shy about saying so, but sometimes he ends up right. Could this be one of those times?

 Of course, I’m responding to a person who proudly prefers warmth based on nearly all of your recent posts and username. Nothing wrong with that, of course and you have company here and especially elsewhere. Different strokes for different folks!  

 This is very telling (add much of the Triad to CLT):

Posted by JB a few hours ago:

Northeast likely Never Pulls out of BN pattern

Opinions?

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

theoretically it has to give out at some point and we see a significant warm up. at least that's what im hoping for. i see no point in a cold march and april. as soon as it hits march 1st i yearn for 72 and sunny

 I want BN temps 365 days of the year. But keep in mind that I’m in a place that’s heavily dominated by heat and humidity and where “cold” is very tolerable and quite enjoyable. Anytime I can get an export of dry Canadian air I’m a happy camper and love being outside! A “cold” April here (say 5 BN) would be highs averaging ~73 and lows averaging 50. How much more pleasant can it be than that? Everything is relative. My main dislike is high dewpoints. Even 80s with sub 50 dewpoints are pleasant.

11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

This has to be at least a B+ winter 

 This has been an A+ winter in terms of excitement as well as fascinating/very interesting nearly nonstop forecast discussions! There had been more than one winter before these last 2 that were, frankly, mainly boring in the SE forecast threads.

 Light snow, sleet, and graupel have been falling this morning in NE GA and also down to S Forsyth County and N and E Cobb County (N ATL burbs)! This is the winter that keeps on giving in GA!

 Following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as I expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

On 11/16/2025 at 9:35 AM, GaWx said:

 I just looked up -ENSO winters with a -PNA in Dec to see how often it went to a +PNA in Jan. In what winters did this occur?

-1954-5: -0.52 to +0.40

-1962-3: -0.08 to +0.58

-1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97

-1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63

-1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63

-1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16

-2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61

-2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29

-2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55

-2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97

-2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28

-2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01

-2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22

 So, although it wasn’t common from 1954-5 through 1971-2, when only 2 of 9 (22%) switched, here’s something that just blew my mind:

-ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans (listed above)!

-These 11 averaged +0.76 in January!

-Now, check out the -ENSO Jan PNAs since 1983-4 that had a +PNA in Dec:

1) 1985-6 went from +1.39 to +0.97

2) 1988-9 went from +0.63 to -0.72

3) 1995-6 went from +0.92 to -0.02

4) 1999-00 went from +0.21 to -0.82

5) 2000-01 went from +1.23 to +1.51

6) 2001-2 went from +0.56 to -0.04

7) 2005-6 went from +1.38 to -0.43

8) 2007-8 went from +0.14 to -0.32

9) 2011-2 went from +0.36 to +0.60

10) 2017-8 went from +0.89 to +0.40

11) 2020-1 went from +1.58 to +0.19

12) 2024-5 went from +1.70 to +1.05

 -So, for these 12 -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 with a +PNA, only 50% also had a +PNA in Jan.

-So, since 1983-4, whereas only 50% of the 12 -ENSO Decs with a +PNA also had a Jan +PNA, 100% of the 11 -ENSO Decs with a -PNA in Dec went to a +PNA in Jan! Thus, having a -PNA in Dec during -ENSO since 1983-4 has, if anything, meant a big increase in the chance for a +PNA in Jan whether random or not! I didn’t know this til just now.

Link to monthly PNAs back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 I’m bumping this 11/16/25 post.
 
 So, following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

On 11/16/2025 at 9:42 AM, GaWx said:

 I just looked up -ENSO winters with a -PNA in Dec to see how often it went to a +PNA in Jan. In what winters did this occur?

-1954-5: -0.52 to +0.40

-1962-3: -0.08 to +0.58

-1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97

-1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63

-1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63

-1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16

-2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61

-2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29

-2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55

-2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97

-2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28

-2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01

-2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22

 So, although it wasn’t common from 1954-5 through 1971-2, when only 2 of 9 (22%) switched, here’s something that just blew my mind:

-ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans (listed above)!

-These 11 averaged +0.76 in January!

-Now, check out the -ENSO Jan PNAs since 1983-4 that had a +PNA in Dec:

1) 1985-6 went from +1.39 to +0.97

2) 1988-9 went from +0.63 to -0.72

3) 1995-6 went from +0.92 to -0.02

4) 1999-00 went from +0.21 to -0.82

5) 2000-01 went from +1.23 to +1.51

6) 2001-2 went from +0.56 to -0.04

7) 2005-6 went from +1.38 to -0.43

8) 2007-8 went from +0.14 to -0.32

9) 2011-2 went from +0.36 to +0.60

10) 2017-8 went from +0.89 to +0.40

11) 2020-1 went from +1.58 to +0.19

12) 2024-5 went from +1.70 to +1.05

 -So, for these 12 -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 with a +PNA, only 50% also had a +PNA in Jan.

-So, since 1983-4, whereas only 50% of the 12 -ENSO Decs with a +PNA also had a Jan +PNA, 100% of the 11 -ENSO Decs with a -PNA in Dec went to a +PNA in Jan! Thus, having a -PNA in Dec during -ENSO since 1983-4 has, if anything, meant a big increase in the chance for a +PNA in Jan whether random or not! I didn’t know this til just now.

Link to monthly PNAs back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

@donsutherland1

 I’m bumping this 11/16/25 post.
 
 So, following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I feel like the cold is on borrowed time. I see a 2015-type progression (just shift one month forward). I'm going with near normal mid-February, warm March, and torch April.

 

Haven’t you been calling for a mild E US starting in January with your 2017 and 2023 analogs? Not that what you’re saying can’t or won’t happen. But why should we believe you now?

 Mid Feb is actually looking warmer than normal for many areas of the E US especially away from the E coast per the EWs. But then you skip all of the way to March and even April based on what exactly? 

 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal:

 Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0:

Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11:

 The biggest challenge for a big NC snowstorm on Val. Day is going to be the progged -PNA by the model consensus (opposite of what the last storm had) as only 10% of the 6”+ storms since 1950 that occurred at RDU and/or GSO were when the PNA was sub -0.5:

Sub -0.5 PNA for 6”+ snowstorms RDU/GSO

-0.8 1/22-24/1954
-0.8 3/2-3/1960
-1.1 2/12-13/2014
-0.7 1/6-7/2017

 In contrast, there have been 4 times as many (16) that occurred with a PNA of +0.5+.

 This analysis has nothing to do with major icestorms, which I’m assuming on average have had better results than big snows when there’s a -PNA.

1 hour ago, Orange county said:

Good point

Of course they typically happen at 35 degrees. maybe 33

SLOP

Here are the 8 big storms I’m referring to from 2/25-3/3: only 2 of them (25%) were slop storms as these were mostly very high impact storms

-3/2-3/1960: 6.5” at RDU with high of only 29; 6.1” at GSO with high of only 27

-2/26/1963: 6.9” RDU with still 3” on ground 2/28

“An estimated 100 people were hospitalized due to weather-related traffic accidents and pedestrian falls.”

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=25#:~:text=The%20first%20heavy%20statewide%20snowfall,traffic%20accidents%20and%20pedestrian%20falls.

-3/1/1969: 9.3” RDU/10.7” GSO: snowcover of 2”+ through 3/4

-3/1-2/1980: 11.1” RDU and 7.9” GSO; frigid with teens during snow; 5-9” still on ground 3/4!

-2/26-27/2004: “The storm, which brought heavier 12–18 inch totals to the Piedmont/Triad area, caused significant disruption, with cold temperatures allowing the snow to stick, causing hazardous travel condition”

-2/26/1952: RDU 3.5”/GSO 6” slop storm

-2/27/1987: 5.2” RDU/7.5” GSO slop storm

-2/25-26/2015: 5.1” RDU/6.4” GSO with 1-2” still on ground 3/1

“The heavy, wet snow caused extensive power outages in many of the hardest hit counties, with some power outages extending beyond 24 hours.”

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=604
 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1  type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring. 

Although highly unlikely in any one winter, RDU’s largest concentration of 6”+ snowfalls since 1950 over any 6-7 day period isn’t til way out during the interval 2/26-3/3 with 5 of the 21 RDU storms. Also, 3 of the 16 GSO 6”+ storms since 1950 that weren’t also at RDU were during a portion of the same period.

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With temps crashing into 20s I have a feeling this gets an advisory for a decent chunk of NC due to travel issues Thursday morning even if accumulations are light 

137 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026  

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM  
EST THURSDAY...  

* WHAT...MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP  
TO ONE INCH AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A LIGHT GLAZE.  

* WHERE...A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  

* WHEN...FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY.  

* IMPACTS...ROADS, AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WILL  
LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.  

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OVER  
THE PIEDMONT TRIAD EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,  
MAINLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. ELSEWHERE, A CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT  
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES  
WILL RAPIDLY FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT CREATING HAZARDOUS  
TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY  
AREA.

29 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Yeah, that’s better for NC than your area. But you should like this next one better for your area but it’s from a followup system, not the system this thread is addressing: