GaWx

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck...

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092623985091494311

Here’s the last map of the 12Z UKMET showing the strengthening 96L moving WNW.
 

Aside: I also see a very weak sfc low on those late maps moving W toward NE FL. It’s doing so due to W steering from an H5 594 dm high centered over the well inland SE. I wonder if that weak low is real:

35 minutes ago, jconsor said:

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck...

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092623985091494311

 The 12Z UKMET, unlike the 0Z, says it is, indeed, a duck as it does develop it and fast! It moved TCG back up 4.5 days back to about when yesterday’s 12Z run had TCG, this evening! Like many runs before the 0Z, it has rapid WNW movement in the MDR while keeping it (mainly) a TD and then strengthens it to TS Dolly about when it leaves the MDR and slows down and later passes just NE of the Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.8N 33.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 12 13.8N 33.6W 1010 27
1200UTC 27.08.2026 24 13.6N 37.9W 1008 31
0000UTC 28.08.2026 36 13.8N 41.6W 1010 30
1200UTC 28.08.2026 48 14.4N 46.3W 1010 32
0000UTC 29.08.2026 60 15.0N 50.5W 1011 29
1200UTC 29.08.2026 72 16.4N 54.4W 1011 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 84 17.5N 58.3W 1011 32
1200UTC 30.08.2026 96 18.6N 61.7W 1011 33
0000UTC 31.08.2026 108 19.5N 63.9W 1010 32
1200UTC 31.08.2026 120 20.5N 66.3W 1009 40
0000UTC 01.09.2026 132 21.6N 67.9W 1008 43
1200UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.3N 69.7W 1007 42
0000UTC 02.09.2026 156 23.2N 71.1W 1002 43
1200UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.5N 73.3W 999 42

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I would imagine that is not good for east cost snow lovers?

I don’t know if it would matter for the NE US, but I don’t see evidence that a rapid collapse in itself would necessarily hurt.

2 hours ago, kgottwald said:

Wonder if we can eke out a year without a single Atlantic hurricane! That'd be pretty exciting.

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think that’ll be very hard as climo is still climo, but at this rate it’s on the board. 

It is quite wild that Dolly is the next named storm as has been said. It’s virtually impossible based on history and I realize we still could get her within a few days from Invest 96L, but what if the rest of the season were to be so amazingly quiet that we end up not even getting to Dolly?

58 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Didn't the CFS forecast the El Nino to collapse as we enter winter?

Yes the CFS has been forecasting a rapid collapse starting as we go through especially the 2nd half of Dec. But it hadn’t earlier forecasted that most of August would be this flat.

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure I see/agree there's much evidence that this ENSO isn't going to heat up more.  

There’s no evidence that this Nino won’t heat up more. I don’t think anyone said that here. If they did, I would have said they were wrong. I expect a resumption of solid warming shortly. But there’s plenty of evidence that it likely won’t heat up as much as the really wildly strong models have/had been showing because of the nearly flat most of August vs the model consensus having progged another sharp warning in Aug similar to July. They’ve been way off this month.

 Early this evening here in the overall still very dry CO high country I saw this at a distance down the road I was taking a leisurely walk on, a first for me to see in the wild anywhere! The drought is so bad here that their natural food supply of berries, etc, is way below normal! This was surrealistic:

0Z UKMET delays transition to a TD for 4 days vs the 12Z run but still has it taking a similar path and gets to a TS quickly as it moves WNW a little NE of the Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 20.3N 67.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 132 21.0N 68.5W 1011 32
0000UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.4N 70.3W 1009 38
1200UTC 01.09.2026 156 23.0N 71.7W 1006 43
0000UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.1N 73.4W 1002 39

9 hours ago, wncsnow said:

A true southern belle who truly cared about those who struggled and did so much for them unlike our corrupt government

I don’t recall ever hearing/reading even one bad word about Dolly. Never! How many public figures can you say that about in our lifetimes?

8 hours ago, John1122 said:

It's a day of mourning here in East Tennessee. 

I’ve rarely if ever heard/read one bad word about Dolly. Never! How many public figures can you say that about? Yes, one part of her anatomy was often made fun of, but that seemed to be mainly in good fun even if sometimes coming off as rude and she seemed to take it well with great responses.

Today was the 2nd afternoon in a row that my home had a severe thunderstorm warning. The heaviest was mainly 5-6 PM. Per radar my place likely got a really good dousing, but I’m out of town. I’ll check Cocorahs and other things later to get an estimate on the rainfall.

*Edit: After considering radar loops and 1.99” at Hunter, the best I can do is to very roughly estimate my home’s total at 1.5”.

Dolly Parton’s passing was just announced.

May Dolly RiP.

Dolly Parton just passed away.

May Dolly RIP.

 The next named storm is Dolly.  
 
 Dolly Parton’s passing was just announced. 

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Thanks for posting that excellent graph! Now 2026 is essentially neck and neck with 1997. RONI/ONI will almost start warming again and likely soon/at a good pace, but:

-it has clearly fallen behind model consensus that had steady warming throughout this month rather than the net flatness/pause of the last 3 weeks

-so when warming resumes, even if in earnest, it will be restarting from a lower point than previously progged by models

12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z run with TCG by tomorrow along with rapid WNW movement in MDR along with it barely reaching TS status before weakening back to a TD though this time it remains a TC and strengthens back to a TS late moving much more slowly WNW near SE Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.0N 32.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 36 13.0N 34.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 27.08.2026 48 13.2N 38.0W 1007 33
0000UTC 28.08.2026 60 13.8N 41.9W 1008 33
1200UTC 28.08.2026 72 14.6N 46.5W 1009 36
0000UTC 29.08.2026 84 15.6N 50.9W 1009 33
1200UTC 29.08.2026 96 16.9N 55.1W 1010 35
0000UTC 30.08.2026 108 17.8N 58.9W 1010 33
1200UTC 30.08.2026 120 19.0N 62.6W 1009 35
0000UTC 31.08.2026 132 19.6N 65.4W 1008 30
1200UTC 31.08.2026 144 20.5N 68.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 01.09.2026 156 21.3N 69.7W 1007 35
1200UTC 01.09.2026 168 22.2N 71.7W 1006 38

3 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

So does this mean that this El Nino may not be as record breaking as it once looked?

100% that’s the case per much slower August warming than models had indicated plus models are trending down likely in reaction to that. See post above. Check out the ground truth with the latest OISST RONI the last 3 weeks: flat!

CDAS ONI: flat last 3 weeks!

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@GaWxI edited these down after really looking at it more...I have put most of my energy into the extra tropical Pacific of late. This is consisted with the max rate of growth observed form this point forward, which was in 1982.

 Thanks. Wow, your reduction of RONI peak (tri) to +2.4 to +2.6 is a good bit below my latest RONI prog of ~+2.8 and is only slightly, if any, above the record of +2.4 from 1982-3! That would be way below some still current model progs of +3.3 to +3.5 for tri RONI! They’re likely going to bust way too high as it looks now.

  Your latest progged ONI tri peak of only +2.7 to +2.9 compares to some ONI tri peaks still near +4.0!

 Ray and all, check out the following large cooling adjustments on the CFSv2 for RONI monthlies:

7/22-31: Aug was +2.35

7/26-8/4: Aug fell to +1.9; Sep +3.0

8/5-14: Sep fell to +2.85; Oct +3.65; Nov +3.75

8/15-24: Sep fell even more to +2.5; Oct fell to +3.3; Nov fell to +3.5

 The trend is clearly down.

0Z UKMET: doesn’t quite get it to Dolly strength but still has it as a TD although this run then weakens it while moving rapidly WNW in the MDR followed by a reformation 2 days later moving W much more slowly toward the SE Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.4N 33.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 48 12.4N 33.9W 1010 28
1200UTC 27.08.2026 60 13.0N 37.8W 1009 30
0000UTC 28.08.2026 72 13.2N 42.0W 1009 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 84 14.1N 46.7W 1010 32
0000UTC 29.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 20.3N 67.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 156 21.0N 68.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 01.09.2026 168 20.9N 70.6W 1009 32

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 has been advertising a drop in the anomalies for about 8 days too, give or take, fwiw, before a resumption of warming and November peak.

Thanks for pointing this out, Mitch. Very interesting for sure!

 Check this excellent video from met. Travis Roberts just out a few hours ago. Within it, he talks about the initial flattening out (RONI, the top of your 2 graphs) that wasn’t there before, the same thing you pointed out!

 Also, check out how flat Aug has been on CDAS since the 5th! I mean that’s almost flat as a pancake type flat. Keep in mind that several models had forecasted a record breaking warming for just one month (for any month) of ~1C in August!

A severe thunderstorm went over my home ~3:10-25PM per radar. I’m out of town and thus couldn’t witness it.

 I think this is the first sig. rain there in a good while.

Edit 8/25: Per Cocorahs and radar, I’m roughly estimating my home got 0.4” afternoon of 8/24.

^This is now Invest 96L and it’s up to 30%/60% in the TWO.

^For the same TW now emerging from Africa:

12Z UKMET vs 0Z: similar rapid WNW track through MDR though 2-3 mb stronger starting near 50W. As it leaves MDR and slows down, it strengthens notably to mid-level TS at the end of the run while still moving WNW on heading in direction of SE Bahamas though still 300+ miles from there. Remains a significant SW outlier, which could be due to a SW bias that it sometimes exhibits with weak systems:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.6N 31.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 60 12.1N 33.5W 1007 30
1200UTC 27.08.2026 72 12.3N 37.6W 1007 34
0000UTC 28.08.2026 84 13.2N 41.6W 1008 34
1200UTC 28.08.2026 96 14.0N 46.3W 1009 35
0000UTC 29.08.2026 108 14.9N 50.9W 1009 33
1200UTC 29.08.2026 120 16.5N 55.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 30.08.2026 132 17.5N 59.1W 1009 33
1200UTC 30.08.2026 144 18.9N 62.5W 1009 35
0000UTC 31.08.2026 156 19.6N 65.2W 1008 34
1200UTC 31.08.2026 168 20.2N 67.8W 1004 52

 The very warm NW Pacific continues to drive a solid -PDO. It would be nice if that would diminish in intensity and allow a PDO increase. Strong El Niño forcing tends to favor a +PDO looking well back in history. Actually from 1877-8 through 1957-8, all 11 strong ones had a +PDO DJF. However, 1965-6 and 1972-3 were neutral. Then the 4 strong ones 1982-3 through 1997-8 went back to +PDO followed by a neutral 2009-10. 2015-6 went back to +PDO followed by 2023-4 being the first on record with a -PDO and a strong one at that! 

Being that August of 2026 will end up most likely 2nd strongest pre strong Nino Aug -PDO with even a slight chance at the strongest -PDO pre-strong Nino Aug, the chances of a +PDO this winter are low. Hopefully it would rise to neutral PDO and we don’t get the 2nd strong Nino winter -PDO in a row.

Full tally for 20 strong El Niño events since 1877-8:
-16 (80%) +PDO 
- 3 (15%) neutral PDO
- 1 (5%) -PDO

PDO data:
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

 Based on model consensus suggesting higher than normal pressures at Tahiti likely dominating the 7 days or so, I don’t think the consistently strong -SOI dailies will return at least until early Sept. We could even have some +SOI dailies til then.