GaWx

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Not odd for Ulster with elevation and lots of forest. 

Thanks. Ulster’s now at 17k out of ~100k customers vs Suffolk being at 10k with >6 times the # of customers! Ulster has almost half the outages in the entire state.

https://poweroutage.us/area/county/833

Kind of odd: Ulster Cty now has highest # and % of outages in NY with 11k/11%. Is this accurate? Neighboring counties are much lower.
 

Suffolk is at 9k/1.4%. 

https://poweroutage.us/area/county/833

Radar suggests several mainly dry hours coming in NYC.

KSAV low of 51 is coldest this early in season since 1999.

13 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Chilly morning

 

 

That 51 at KSAV is the earliest that cold since 1999!

Delays are currently much shorter on avg vs last evening at LaGuardia, when they were nearing 3 hrs…maybe then will turn out to be the worst of it??

Suffolk is still by far leading the outages in the area with 10K although that’s still not too bad on a % basis (1.6%). 

Nassau has 5.5K/1.2%.

Total in NY state: 23K

NJ: 31K with highest # in Ocean Cty at 8K (2.5%) although highest % in NW NJ’s Warren Cty (5.4%)

CT: 14K with highest % of 4% in E CT

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Power outages are highest in Suffolk as a %, but even there that’s only at 0.5%.

Suffolk outages have increased from ~3K (0.5%) to ~5K (0.8%) within the last hour.

 Power outages are highest in Suffolk as a %, but even there that’s only at 0.5%.

42 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

That cold map is for Oct 5-12.

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That seems diametrical to the current operation guidance,   CMC/GFS/EURO     All three have 564 to 570+ hydrostatic heights, with W to SW/NW off shore components, Wed thru Sat.  

Now ...this may differ from ens mean/bulk signaling and telecon indexes therefrom, et al... not sure, haven't checked. But, the operational runs are warmer than just mild those 4 days as of these last 00z guidance

Thank you! I had a brain malfunction! I edited my original post to point to the error and correction of dates. I apologize for my mistake.

 The new map for Oct 5-11 has a slightly stronger cold signal than yesterday’s:

H5:

@mitchnick

 I’m not saying the Euro is necessarily going to be right. But I’m passing this along because it’s objectively determined and easily available to the wx community. So fwiw:

 The new Euro ensemble (12Z) maintains the 90-100% chance that the 0Z and 6Z had for a tropical storm to form from this:

The run from just 24 hrs earlier for the same period had only just over 70% for the chance:

I’ve only rarely seen these very comfy conditions here this early in autumn, especially in recent decades:

SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS 
SAVANNAH ARPT MOSUNNY  75 53 46 N10 30.02F 
HUNTER AAF SUNNY  75 53 45 N5 29.98F

12Z Euro maps have a 500 mb temperature max of -5C near the center mainly on the eastside.

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Should have recon data in an hour or so, NOAA2 took off a little while ago

A beast:

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Well, there won't be much subway service Monday morning if that verifies.

What about airport service on Sun/Mon at the 3 major NYC area airports? How did past comparable storms affect service?

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I understand how this stuff is to be interpreted.  

I'm looking at the particulars of the synoptic parameters spanning those 4 days.   Thu and Fri in particular are much warmer than normal.  not -1   ...more like +15 off of the last two consec runs of the GFS operational.  

570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way.  I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long.  We can definitely still get it done.  

 

Thanks.

1. I understand and perhaps this will bust too cool. We’ll see.

2. Let’s see if today’s update is warmer.

2. You may have not seen my edit:

 “Keep in mind that this was based on yesterday’s 0Z Euro ens (the latest Euro Weeklies output available til after 4PM EDT today).”

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That seems diametrical to the current operation guidance,   CMC/GFS/EURO     All three have 564 to 570+ hydrostatic heights, with W to SW/NW off shore components, Wed thru Sat.  

Now ...this may differ from ens mean/bulk signaling and telecon indexes therefrom, et al... not sure, haven't checked. But, the operational runs are warmer than just mild those 4 days as of these last 00z guidance

John,

 Keep in mind that this was based on yesterday’s 0Z Euro ens (the latest Euro Weeklies output available til after 4PM EDT today), the 2nd shade of blue is -1 to -3C (so much of it for 9/28-10/3 could conceivably be closer to the -1C boundary), and this product uses a warmer climo base than most, the last 20 years:

• re-forecasts are derived by re-running an 11-member ensemble (1 control and 10 perturbed members) using the same calendar start date for each of the last 20 years.

*Edited

 It’s looking pretty chilly in the E 1/2 of the U.S. next week (this is for Sep 28th-Oct 4th): *Edited to correct date to Oct 4th

————

**Edit #2 4:35PM EDT Sep 25th:

 As was pointed out to me later ITT, I made a mistake as the map was actually for Oct 5-11, not Sep 28th-Oct 4th:

The MJO continues to avoid both the IO and the MC for a duration unlike any in recorded history:

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

00z HRRR shows the E Coast low taking on more ST characterists 40-48 hr as a inner core contracted wind field develops.  RRFS it take over 24 hr longer to do this.

 

27 minutes ago, jconsor said:

All of the NJ coast up to Monmouth County (e.g. NWS Mount Holly's territory) is under a High Wind warning:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=high wind warning

The 0Z Euro ens increased the chance of “tropical cyclone activity” off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the weekend to its highest yet of any run and the highest possible, >90%! Yesterday it wasn’t as high for the weekend as it was peaking at ~80%.

0Z UKMET Nolo: still stays significantly S of Big Island but 9/30+ again turns NE to not too far S of Big Island:

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 156.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 14.9N 156.1W 990 46
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 15.6N 155.8W 985 57
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 15.9N 155.0W 983 65
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 15.9N 154.4W 985 55
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 15.3N 154.7W 985 50
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 14.2N 155.4W 988 42
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 13.4N 156.4W 989 41
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 13.5N 157.5W 988 43
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 14.0N 158.6W 984 51
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 14.7N 159.1W 982 56
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 15.5N 158.6W 977 60
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 16.1N 157.3W 975 61
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 16.5N 155.8W 983 54
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 17.0N 154.7W 989 52
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 17.6N 154.3W 995 42

0Z UKMET: Fay still around at 168 moving NW:

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 41.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 30.0N 41.9W 1014 26
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 30.1N 42.8W 1014 31
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 30.0N 43.8W 1014 30
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 30.1N 44.6W 1014 27
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 30.1N 44.8W 1015 23
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 29.9N 44.9W 1015 23
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 29.6N 44.9W 1016 22
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 28.7N 45.3W 1015 22
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 27.7N 46.1W 1014 22
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 26.8N 47.2W 1012 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 26.2N 48.5W 1012 26
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 26.1N 50.1W 1011 26
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 26.3N 51.5W 1012 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 27.2N 52.3W 1011 30
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 28.1N 52.9W 1010 32

————

12Z 9/25/26 UKMET run for Fay:

  TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 42.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 0 30.1N 42.4W 1014 31
0000UTC 26.09.2026 12 30.0N 43.2W 1014 27
1200UTC 26.09.2026 24 30.1N 43.6W 1014 28
0000UTC 27.09.2026 36 30.1N 43.6W 1015 24
1200UTC 27.09.2026 48 29.8N 43.4W 1014 23
0000UTC 28.09.2026 60 29.0N 43.2W 1015 24
1200UTC 28.09.2026 72 27.7N 43.3W 1014 26
0000UTC 29.09.2026 84 26.3N 44.7W 1013 26
1200UTC 29.09.2026 96 25.3N 46.5W 1011 25
0000UTC 30.09.2026 108 24.7N 48.7W 1011 27
1200UTC 30.09.2026 120 24.7N 50.8W 1011 28
0000UTC 01.10.2026 132 24.8N 52.7W 1011 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 144 25.3N 54.4W 1011 28
0000UTC 02.10.2026 156 25.6N 55.4W 1012 32
1200UTC 02.10.2026 168 25.7N 56.4W 1011 31