GaWx

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The current -PNA is mostly a reflection of how strong the ridge is north of Hawaii is. That’s the really strong 500 mb -PDO we are getting in July.

The SSTs are mostly a lagging indicator since the 500mb drove the PDO decline since June. But there is probably a background feedback between the SST and atmosphere which has kept the -PDO so negative during the 2020s.

This summer PDO drop has been a common theme during the 2020s with a gradual rise to less negative or neutral by the winter. So our new 2020s seasonal cycle.

We can’t really predict the PNA beyond the short term so too early to put out a precise winter PNA forecast. But just to say that the 2023-2024 super El Niño with a -PDO had a less positive winter PNA than 2015-2016 with a strong +PDO

DJF 2023-2024…….PNA…..+0.58…..PDO…..-1.34

DJF 2015-2016……..PNA……+1.42…..PDO…..+1.07

 Joe Bastardi’s current primary analogs for this winter are 1957-8 and 1965-6. He showed on Saturday that the avg temperature of those 2 in DJF is close to what recent CFS means have had. But his basis of using those 2 is that they’re both 2 very strong El Niños with a -PDO. What the? Whereas I hope we get something like what the CFS has been showing, I can’t figure out why he’s counting them as -PDO analogs:

-1957-8 had +1 to +2.4 PDO every month from June through Feb!

-1965-6 PDO was neutral in July and then +0.7 to +1.4 Aug-Dec. Then it fell only to borderline -PDO in Jan/Feb (-0.3, -0.2).

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

That's the $64 question for this year. Will we see the same type of "gobsmaking" global warming we saw in 2023 or will this year behave more like a typical strong/super el nino. So far I'd put this year in the typical camp, with global air temperatures lagging the rise in ENSO and global SST.  

One aspect that has held back global temperatures in the past 2 months has been very cold temperatures in Antarctica associated with a strong AAO+ regime.  In 2023 AAO was strongly positive in January (see AAO table below), reversing by March, and staying negative through September. So the AAO boosted global temperatures in the first half of 2023 but are holding them back this year. One of the many factors that contributes to a different outcome in 2026 vs 2023. If the AAO reverses in August there will be an added boost in global temperatures on top of ENSO. We will see.

2023  2.304  0.554 -0.258 -0.921  1.452 -0.438 -0.818 -0.038 -1.050  0.535  0.097  1.510
2024  0.922  1.043 -0.058  1.005 -0.073  0.210 -0.597 -2.150  0.098 -0.567  1.020 -0.826
2025 -0.080 -0.271  0.733  1.138  0.509  0.209  0.753  0.357 -0.709 -1.236 -1.324 -1.136
2026  0.848  0.489  0.492 -0.125  0.544  2.506

It’s interesting that both the Arctic and the Antarctic have been cold the last 2 months relative to the past.

 The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:

From an Evansville, IN, pro-met 

These were the observations at Evansville, IN for 4-5-6pm on July 26, 2026.

The dew point readings were 80-80 and 81.

The 81 deg. F dewpoint tied the record for highest dew point in history at this location. It happened on 4 previous occasions.

 I just got measurable rain for the 1st time in ~10 days with a quick popup shower moving quickly ESE (a somewhat unusual direction). It gave me no more than 0.1”.

 OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C):

 What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Just a suggestion if you guys make future snow maps closer to winter. It usually helps if you give a rough % of average to go in line with your thinking. I knew what raindance was getting at with the snow map (admittedly just a preliminary joke map rough idea) but it always looks funny when you see something like "snowy" in Atlanta and "not snowy" in Marquette. 

 “Snowy” in ATL can be ~3”+ as the average SN/IP is ~2”. Thus snowy in ATL can easily be from just one storm. More often than not, “snowy” in any particular location in the SE US away from the mountains is mainly from just one major storm along with possibly one+ minor hits.

 Another thing about a place like ATL or even RDU vs Marquette: a much larger % of the wintry precip is sleet or ZR when averaged out over the decades. I roughly estimate 1” of sleet is equivalent to 2.5” of snow on average. So, for example, ATL got ~4” of sleet in 2/1979 and 1/1988. They had the water equivalent, impact, and staying power of ~10” of snow. In addition, ZR doesn’t even measure as S/IP as we know. 
 
 So, the 2” ATL avg tends to understate to an extent its avg wintry precip vs, say, a straight 2” avg snow.

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe I’ll be wrong and if I am then so be it….I’ve been wrong before but I just can’t imagine the PDO staying negative this fall in the face of an extremely well coupled, historic super El Niño. My call is that the PDO flips to at least weakly positive by the end of November. If I’m wrong, oh well….

History strongly supports a +PDO by no later than Nov as 94% of the 36 mod+ Ninos since the 1850s had a +PDO in Nov or earlier as only 2 didn’t have a NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4.

It’s endless summer here with a very uncomfy 94 high at KSAV.

 I haven’t had significant rains at my place since way back on July 14th! However, Mon into the evening is looking promising. If that weren’t to deliver, it would be sprinklers time again.

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is 2015 a poor analog? 

2015: 15JUL2015     region 1.2   2.7     region 3   1.9     region 3.4.    1.4     region 4.    1.1

2026: 15JUL2026    region 1.2 3.6      region 3.   2.3    region 3.4.    2.1     region 4.    1.1

1997:  16JUL1997     region 1.2  3.8     region 3.    1.9     region 3.4.   1.4     region 4.   0.4

2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. 

Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. 

Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.

This image shows well that ‘97 was much more E based on July 19th:

On 7/22/2026 at 12:40 PM, donsutherland1 said:

A “must read” piece on climate, data, and data manipulation:

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/hot-days-cold-thermometers

Chris put out this yesterday. I hate his confrontational juvenile behavior, which is totally unnecessary. Ignoring that and acknowledging that 1936 was made much worse due to very dry soils/drought, does he have a valid point about a possible double standard in the treatment of 1936 and 2026 European heatwaves? After all, they were both regional and 1936 covered a much larger area I believe:

This is the 2nd part:

The recent European heatwave was also regional. But for whatever reason, that is supposedly “incontrovertible proof” of catastrophic, rapid global climate change. I really want to know how any person can have this level of mental retardation.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong 

Out of 36 mod+ Ninos since 1850s, only 2 didn’t have NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4!

47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This has to be confirmed but I think RDU just broke the record for wettest July in its history 

Through July 24th, it’s the wettest on record since way back in 1941!

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

At this time last year it was -3, so not as extreme as recent years. It will be interesting to see if we break into positive territory by December.

 To compare to the prior Nino, July was similarly strongly -PDO and it hit most neg ~Oct 1st. Then it rose to a more moderate -PDO:

WCS PDO is still dropping and is now down to -1.81, lowest since early Oct:

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With today's -16.25, the streak, which began on May 11 is 75 days. The record is 100 consecutive days (January 3 through April 12, 1998). Daily records only go back to 1991.

 Thanks, Don. It will be interesting to see if 2026 beats 1998’s 100 days!

 As you said, the record of the daily SOs goes back only to 1991. I wonder if there’s any way to find dailies pre-1991. Based on the monthlies, I’d say that 1982-3 would have a 50% or higher chance of having a streak exceeding 100 days if the dailies could be found. Why? These monthlies, especially Nov-Mar:

1982  8   -22.2  1
1982  9   -20.0  1
1982  10  -20.5  1
1982  11  -30.0  1
1982  12  -22.6  1
1983  1   -31.4  1
1983  2   -35.7  1
1983  3   -25.7  1

 
 Another good candidate per the monthlies is 1905, especially Mar-June:

1905  2   -18.5  3
1905  3   -27.7  1
1905  4   -38.2  1
1905  5   -34.3  1
1905  6   -27.7  1
1905  7   -19.8  1

One last good possibility is 1896, especially May-Aug:

1896  5   -38.8  3
1896  6   -27.0  1
1896  7   -19.1  1
1896  8   -21.0  1
1896  9   -18.2  1
1896  10  -19.2  1

52 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I found them  

Yep, extent is doing worse than area as compared to recent years.

-SOI has reached 74 straight days! That will continue supporting robust warming of Nino 3.4.

Parts of Houston metro received significantly more rainfall from Bertha than models had with up to ~5” vs mist progs of ~0.75”. Here’s the final advisory:

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Doesn't look like the senate has 60 votes.   I'd rather keep the current system-not interested in 8:30 sunrises

Most Senators were alive during the 1974 year-round DST disaster that was thus quickly reversed. And can you imagine not getting the Euro til 2AM during the crucial winter season?

The current -SOI streak has now surpassed the 72 day streak of 1997 and is now at 74 days. Only 1998’s 100 days has been longer as far back as daily records go at Long-Paddock:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer.

We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May.

What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen. 
 

 

 

 

Chris,

June-July 1991 also didn’t get the memo (Also, May of 1991 was very warm):

In addition, June-July of 1877 wasn’t cool.

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A “must read” piece on climate, data, and data manipulation:

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/hot-days-cold-thermometers

Thanks, Don! 

 This is the first time I can recall becoming aware of this observation time bias potentially causing overcounting of high max temps due to double counting of these highs as a result of observers getting 24 hour max prior to 1940s during late afternoon, near the time of most very hot highs, as opposed to mainly doing it near sunrise 1940s+.

 Do you have a source with more details on this? How widespread was this practice of getting 24 hour max late in afternoon? Do you by chance know how often this would result in double counting hot highs?

12Z UKMET: 1005 mb Galveston hour 33 
-Has TS force winds C and W LA coast but nowhere in TX. 
-Rainfall for GLV-HOU only ~0.5-75”. Max is ~4” and is near Matagorda Bay.

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 88.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2026 0 29.8N 88.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 23.07.2026 12 29.3N 90.7W 1003 33
1200UTC 23.07.2026 24 29.0N 92.4W 1001 43
0000UTC 24.07.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

 The 7/21/26 WCS PDO of -1.56 is the lowest since way back on 11/8/25:

I’m calling the formation of Bertha as another MJO phase 8 related pattern recognition win for Joe Bastardi in addition to Arthur.