GaWx

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know. Recent heating seems to be overpowering any natural variability/oscillations. Obviously, not every year is warmer than the previous, but the change seems to be more pronounced over the past several years - and I would expect that trend to continue at least through next year with the likely strong El Nino. 

 

We agree that temps will very likely warm notably more rapidly due to this incoming likely strong El Niño as has occurred with past ones. But if a strong Nino in itself leads to a temporary more rapid warming, isn’t that consistent with this additional warming being due to a natural oscillation of the Pacific ocean rather than GW from AGW?

 Strong El Niños lead to more rapid jumps in global temps. That more rapid warming in itself is due to a natural oscillation, ENSO, bringing to the surface the even warmer water. Is this right?

 The latest BoA relative was just released. As expected, it cooled way down from the April Nino 3.4 prog of +0.6 as it is now a much more realistic -0.2 (that actually will likely end up slightly too cool as I expect it verify -0.1 to 0.0). However, despite that marked cooling of April, it warmed for its Sept prog from ~+2.35 to +2.6. Also, this is the first run with Oct, which it has at ~+2.85.
 
 On the one hand, one should keep in mind how much it overdid ONI in 2023. OTOH, this latest has RONI near the level it had ONI in 2023. So, although we should be aware of a quite possible warm bias at play here thus causing the RONI prog to be overstated, we should also be aware that it is currently implicitly progging ~0.5C warmer RONI vs 2023. Keep in mind that RONI peaked at only ~+1.5 in 2023-4. We’re very likely headed to a significantly warmer RONI peak in 2026-7:

BoA RONI prog from 2 weeks ago: a ridiculous +0.6 April and a +2.35 Sept:

Today’s BoA RONI prog: much more realistic cooler -0.2 April but Sept a warmer +2.6; first run with Oct (+2.85):

 The relative weeklies centered on last week were released this morning. They as expected based on following the dailies show a slowdown in the rate of warming in 3.4 and 3 (from 0.4 the prior week to 0.1 last week). Also, note that Nino 4 cooled 0.1. Nino 1+2, which is more volatile since it covers a much smaller area, cooled 0.3. I expect that this cooling there is just a blip that will reverse soon:

Date………………...1+2………3………3.4……..4

08APR2026         1.1       -0.2       -0.3        0.2
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

^Thanks. It’s no doubt an extremely warm OHC for so early thanks largely to the very rapid rate of warming earlier this month. That’s why I posted the comparison. However, I feel it’s also important that we keep in mind that this, like ONI, is a measure that is not “relative” to up to date ocean warming. So, in that regard, it’s a bit overdone to the warm side just like ONI is a bit overdone to the warm side in relation to RONI.

@bluewave @snowman19

 OHC and buoys both show sharp warming since early April:

OHC: only ~+1.6 early April

OHC: ~+2.0 to +2.1 mid April!

 Today’s EW rainfall next 2 weeks:

 4/27-5/3: AN to NN SE; ATL 1.5-1.75”

5/4-10: NN in SE (ATL 0.75”); wetter FL

Today’s Euro Weeklies continue to have BN next 2 weeks averaged out!

4/27-5/3:

5/4-10:

We can thank this H5 for cool 5/4-10 

 Getting our best rains (and just about our only rains of note) since April 5th’s nearly 1/2”. Currently have a band of heavy thunderstorms coming through with some rumbles. I haven’t watered since 4/22 and this will allow me to go further without going back to watering.  
 

 I ended up with ~0.8”, the heaviest here since at the very least March 8th.

 Phase 1 peaked way up at ~2.73 amplitude this month. Only 2018 (also ~2.73) and 2009 (~2.75) had a higher phase 1 peak in April going back to 1975. Both were pre-Nino years like 2026.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for posting.

 I like how Leon Simons’ tweet shows the stats and how strong the latest CFSv2 has RONI peaking. But I don’t like that he used the word “dystopian” and said “No one is prepared.” What do you and others think?

34 minutes ago, suzook said:

We got a big fat zilch! Zero point zero today. I bet we get absolutely nothing the next week too. I literally watch the radar, and 20 miles to my west the rain just disappears. I'm so done with this crap. We literally have had maybe 2 Inches of rain the last 4 months. This is insane. Oak trees are looking bad. Yellow leaves, and staring to drop leaves 

The last of the 3 (Tue night) looks much wetter on models for S of I-85. 
 

For most of SE, Tue night/Wed system looks wettest overall.

On 4/23/2026 at 7:14 PM, suzook said:

I mean at this point a half inch the next week would obviously be better than nothing. 

From FFC for 3 systems including today’s:

7 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.5-2.25" NORTH OF I-85, WITH PROGRESSIVELY 
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, DOWN TO ABOUT 0.5" IN 
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE 
STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR 
WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY

 Similar to 24 hours ago, the smoke here has returned though not to as much as yesterday. This should once again clear up this afternoon with the sea breeze.

 The SOI has dropped back down to -11. It may drop further temporarily. However, the models are not suggesting a further sustained drop to the 3 day long -30ish level of April 9-11 in the immediate future. So far, the SOI hasn’t been overly impressively negative for an oncoming very strong Nino vs history.

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In fairness to Webb, Paul Roundy said yesterday that this upcoming downwelling Kelvin wave is the strongest in history

 Even if the KW were to verify as strongest in history (however long the recorded history of KWs is), why the “Very very massive yikes”? That wording implies to me that that’s worrisome. Why would that be something to get worried about? Are we in trouble? To me this is just more of his being over the top and not professional.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

“Very very massive yikes”

Oh no! What are we going to do? Will we survive? Webb is so over the top. Yikes about what?

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Smoke is visible in this area due to the S GA fires.

 The low level smoke has cleared up in the area thanks to a SE sea breeze. A temp of 79 F with a very dry 37 F dew point despite a steady SE sea breeze at KSAV is surrealistic. I took advantage of it with an enjoyable evening walk.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for 4/27-5/3 reversed to a somewhat wetter signal but not all of the way to what it had 2 days ago and the prior 8 days:

Yesterday’s run:

Today’s run: ATL back to >1”

Smoke is visible in this area due to the S GA fires.

 Unfortunately, after nine days straight of a widespread wetter than normal signal in the SE US for the week April 27-May 3, today’s Euro Weeklies run was much drier in most of the SE:

Yesterday’s run: 9th wet run in a row

Today’s run: drier signal much of the SE

31 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I’ve read through the Christy & Spencer paper and I think it’s worth discussing, but a lot of the conclusions depend heavily on how the analysis is set up. First, it’s U.S.-only, which already limits how broadly you can interpret it. The U.S. is a small, noisy region with a lot of land-use influence, and it’s not necessarily representative of global behavior.

You’re saying how this being U.S. only limits how broadly you can interpret it. But at the same time, many of your recent posts ITT have been U.S. only! You wouldn’t even consider the intense cold in Canada in March. You’re not being consistent.

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Ray and Chris,

 If Nino 3.4 is at +2C vs 1991-2020 and surrounding tropics are also at +2C vs 1991-2020, there’s no warm El Niño tongue to do its forcing. Thus, it’s essentially neutral rather than super El Niño and officially is neutral for RONI. So, RONI is a better measure for strength of El Niño and La Niña for that matter. Do y’all agree?

@bluewave

 This illustrates how much warmer the surrounding tropical areas were during 2023-4, which means a RONI significantly cooler than ONI due to the lowered contrast:

 Look at the much larger contrast in 1982-3:

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies:

Today’s EWs continue to look good overall (certainly much better than how it’s been in the SE for most weeks in recent months) during the two weeks 4/27-5/10:

4/27-5/3:

5/4-10: