GaWx
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Posts posted by GaWx
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38 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:
Re: "Wildfire swept" - I hope people don't think that's due to CC. Because if so - look what Europe as a whole shows:
It's an extremely low wildfire year across Europe as a whole.
https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.statistics/seasonaltrend
Based on all that I’ve read, the role of CC in overall wildfire frequency/avg size is complex. One thing it is doing is increasing the green-ness of the Earth overall, which is a good thing but which itself also increases amount of fuel for burning. Also, where it is causing drier conditions on average, that along with heat increases fire danger. But wildfire stats, depending on what you examine, don’t necessarily show that wildfires have increased over the decades and in some cases have shown marked decreases. Some of that is likely due to better firefighting resources.
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Even down here the dewpoints are actually down to 66-67! That’s the lowest I’ve seen quite possibly all month. Temp is 93.3 here vs 100.5 exactly 24 hrs ago (high was 101.1). Skies still have ugly haze with only a few clouds. Winds are light/variable vs yesterday’s hot SW winds.
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Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:
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Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:
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34 minutes ago, Met1985 said:
Huge improvements on the current drought monitor for several of yall down east.
Indeed, much of NC improved. But SE SC still is in pretty bad shape for now as they hardly changed:
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Darwin has had 21 straight days of 1015+ mb pressure. Based on records back to to 1991, that’s a new record long string breaking the old record of 20 days set in Aug of 2015.
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:
This July was the opposite temperature composite from the other developing super El Niño years.
Notice the record warmth focused in the Rockies and Upper Plains. Rapid City, SD just tied their warmest July.
That’s where the coolest anomalies during the July super El Niños were focused in the past. Notice the past developing super El Niños were among the coolest.
Time Series Summary for Rapid City Area, SD (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Warmest Average Temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.1 2026 79.7 2 - 2007 79.7 0 2 2006 79.3 0 3 2012 78.4 0 4 2002 78.3 0 5 1954 77.7 0 6 1974 77.3 0 7 2017 77.1 0 8 2003 77.0 0 - 1989 77.0 0 9 1955 76.9 0 10 1960 76.8 0
Time Series Summary for Rapid City Area, SD (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Coolest Average Temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.1 1992 64.3 0 2 1993 65.1 0 3 1972 65.6 0 4 1950 66.9 0 5 1958 67.0 0 6 1971 68.0 0 7 2009 68.1 0 8 1944 69.0 0 9 1968 69.1 0 10 1962 69.2 0 11 2014 69.5 0 12 2018 70.2 0 13 2010 70.4 0 - 1979 70.4 0 14 2023 70.5 0 15 2019 70.6 0 - 1995 70.6 0 - 1967 70.6 0 16 1994 70.7 0 - 1982 70.7 0 - 1973 70.7 0 - 1948 70.7 0 17 1996 70.8 0 - 1986 70.8 0 - 1951 70.8 0 18 1997 70.9 0 19 2015 71.0 0 The hot summer of 1991 was an exception.
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12 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:
The supercell started in Richmond, VA. Dropped a tornado on the James river. Could have been anywhere.
Tornadic waterspout is the answer:
A tornadic waterspout is a true tornado that forms over water or moves from land to water. It develops downward from a severe thunderstorm, bringing high winds, large hail, and lightning. [1, 2, 3]
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46 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:
That is literally the most idiotic answer ever. I want an answer from Wakefield NWS and they won't answer either.
"Tornadic waterspouts", also accurately referred to as "tornadoes over water", are formed from mesocyclones in a manner essentially identical to land-based tornadoes in connection with severe thunderstorms, but simply occurring over water.[22] A tornado which travels from land to a body of water would also be considered a tornadic waterspout.[23] Since the vast majority of mesocyclonic thunderstorms in the United States occur in land-locked areas, true tornadic waterspouts are correspondingly rarer than their fair-weather counterparts in that country.
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1 hour ago, Coach McGuirk said:
Little to know damage was reported, it traversed the James River. But a super sweet pic. Since it was associated with a large thunderstorm but never hit land, does it not count as a tornado?
I think it is counted as a “tornadic waterspout”.
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Scattered convection (moving ESE just like 3 days ago) has been occurring throughout the area since ~7:45PM. I’m away from home and so have no idea how much I got there. The cooldown from today’s 99-101 in the area has been dramatic!
Edit on 7/30: I only got 0.1” yesterday (7/29), which puts me at 4.4” MTD.
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It already hit 99.5 at 2:15PM at my place! The highest so far this season that I’ve seen here is 101.1, which was at 2:35PM on July 12th.
Winds are from the SW, keeping the seabreeze away. Skies are mostly to partly sunny with an ugly haze.
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*Edit: 100.5 at 2:30PM!
Since I don’t have RH, I don’t have a heat index. However, based on surrounding stations, it’s likely ~113!
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*Edit: 100.9 at 2:46PM!
*Edit: 101.1 at 3:22PM, which ties with my hottest of the summer to date on July 12th!
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-July’s -SOI, which is headed toward sub -25, is going to end up the strongest on record by a wide margin. The current record July -SOI is 1965’s -21.0. The next lowest are at -19.8 (1905 and 1882).
This will at least give support to the progged record rate of warming of 3.4 within 30 days being shown by several models between the means for July and Aug of 2026.
-The avg of June and July is also headed to a record low. The current record is the -23.8 of 1905.
-The beauty of the SOI is that it apparently isn’t biased to any significant degree in any direction by CC. Thus, this measure is one of the most objective ways to measure the strength of ENSO without having to worry about GW/looking at relative vs raw.
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Going back to when I started following the CFSv2 AAM forecasts in Nov of 2023, the latest release (7/28/26 0Z) easily has THE strongest CFSv2 ensemble forecasted mean AAM of any I’ve ever seen/saved. The mean exceeds +2.5 by day 8 (Aug 5th), +3.0 by day 16 (Aug 13th), and +3.5 by day 20 (Aug 17th)! Although days 1-7 are a little shy of the strongest for week one of the forecast, all of the days day 8 to the end (day 32) are THE earliest periods in the forecast to get that strong of those that I’ve saved. Granted these have a notable +AAM bias starting ~day 15 that rises further with time as I’ve noted a number of times. But regardless, this one is very strong by day 8, which is early enough to be fairly reliable, and this run is as I said the strongest of any run that I’ve seen as a whole, which bodes well for the chance for a very strong +AAM dominating at least through the 1st 1/2 of August:
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“Typhoon Dolphin is expected to strengthen into a violent storm as it moves towards Japan's remote Minami-Torishima Island, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Wednesday.”
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INLAND CHATHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GARDEN CITY, POOLER, AND SAVANNAH
707 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
TODAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 112. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
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INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WILMINGTON ISLAND AND TYBEE ISLAND
707 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
TODAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115.
WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT
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The low so far today at KSAV is 82! Will they get convection and/or outflow from nearby convection to get below that by this evening? Not likely but possible. If not, the 82 would tie a record high low.-
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The extended GEFS and more-so the EPS are suggesting a pretty robust monsoon (wetter than normal) getting established early to mid-Aug and staying pretty active though diminishing some near the start of Sept on the EPS.
What period is the heart of the Monsoon climowise?
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14 minutes ago, roardog said:
That's actually frustrating. How hard is it in 2026 to be able to accurately measure what the RONI is? Is it because NOAA has a different way to measure RONI VS ONI or is it the actual water temperatures that are off between the two organizations? 0.5 is a huge difference.
Well, as the comparison to cyclonicwx RONI graphs have been showing, NOAA seems like it could be 0.3C too low. Regardless, BoA does seem a bit high. I just figured out that they're very likely using the warm biased (by ~0.2C) Coral Reef Watch SSTs instead of OISST, which is ~0.2C cooler than CRW:
CRW: was ~+1.94 for the avg of the week ending 7/26/26…so that almost has to be the reason:
The average of the 2 may be closest to reality.
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31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Holy Moses! That has relative 3.4’s latest weekly averaged value way up at +1.94 vs NOAA’s +1.4! What the??
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The latest BoA continues to suggest a new record rate of one month’s warming of 3.4 for ANY month (back to 1950) with August ~1.1C warmer than July, similar to the CFS. Look at that steep slope!! So, now through August will need to really perform or else progged peaks would likely come down somewhat. Model consensus has had mid to late summer as the most rapid rate of warming for quite awhile. The record summer -SOI certainly gives it a fantastic level of support:
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12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:
That’s slightly misleading, the RDU record has been broken (previously 9.11”). It was set in 2024:
https://www.wral.com/archive/21561538/
The Raleigh record is what those tweets are speaking to and it is taking into account the switch to RDU as the reporting site in 1945, and observations at the previous sites which obviously go further back. So there is no RDU record pre-1945 as that site didn’t exist. But as shown, reporting site or not, tomorrow’s rain could shatter all records for the Raleigh area in July. My >13” total already has, if my site was official! It’s the wettest month I’ve had in 8 years of running my station
Thanks for the info on the current RDU station going only back to 1945.
But that article did miss July 1991’s 10.27” at RDU:
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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Actually viewing the data that you're using is overrated.
Ray,
Please explain why you think the NOAA monthly PDO data that I quoted is overrated.
What do you think about JB’s choice of a cross between. 1957-8 and 1965-6 as analogs (warm Dec except NN SE, colder Jan with BN S 2/3 of US, even colder Feb (cold most of US), and chilly Mar) making overall NDJFM avg cold concentrated in S 1/2 of US and JFM avg cool to cold most of US)? They are similar to the CFS fwiw.
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On 7/25/2026 at 1:44 PM, NorthHillsWx said:
RDU didn’t open until 1943, so those were not taken at the airport. The wettest July in RDU history was in 2024 with 9.11” and I think it surpassed that mark today
RDU has had THE wettest July 1-26 on record with 11.13” with records going back to 1887! See more about July in the Tweet quoted below.
This first 26 days of the month is the 2nd wettest 1st 26 days of any met. summer month with only Aug of 1908 wetter (13.63”)!
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah“1.17 inches of rain just after midnight today at @RDUAirport now has the monthly total at 11.13 and 4th wettest July on record.. We are just 1.23 from equaling the wettest July on record..”
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17 hours ago, GaWx said:
OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C):
What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.
What in the heck is going on with the recent NOAA weekly releases for Nino 3.4? The week centered on July 22nd was only barely below +1.75 per the cyclonicwx.com OISST graph!
01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5
08JUL2026 2.6 1.6 1.3 0.5
15JUL2026 2.8 1.6 1.4 0.4
22JUL2026 3.0 1.8 1.4 0.3-
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
Do you mean El Niño possibly carrying over like 1957-8/1958-9? That’s the closest I could find followed perhaps by 1940-1/1941-2.