GaWx

Wow! The latest update for OISST (June 4th) has a massive warming for one day: 0.189C! That’s the strongest one day warming since way back on March 6th! The last 4 days have warmed a hair over 0.4C or a whopping 0.1C/day! That’s the fastest 4 day warming on this entire chart, even exceeding the ~0.36C of April 11th-15th. See far right side of the image below. The strong -SOI is doing its magic on its typically couple of week delayed basis vs when the strong negative string started.

 This means the 6/5/26 RONI equivalent daily is already up to the +0.8 to +0.9 range!

 Implications for Monday’s weekly 3.4 update: at the very least an increase of 0.2C to 0.7C relative 3.4. There’s a good shot at an increase of 0.3 to 0.8 relative 3.4 if this continues to rise on the next 2 days’ updates:

Check out today’s and last 4 days’ warming!

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It's looking like a monster east-based El Niño event.

 Indeed, Don, the Euro’s June prog has the strongest (“monster” as you said) on record. And I agree it’s looking E based. But it’s not currently looking nearly as E based as 97-8 based on peak fall/winter differences between 1+2 and 3.4/4 per the latest Euro. And it’s not even looking as E based as 1982-3 per these same differences.

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s still going to be east-based

 

 

 

 

Agreed. I didn’t say 26-7 wasn’t looking E based. I’m saying it doesn’t look as E based as 1982-3 and not anywhere close to (not even in the ballpark) as E based as 1997-8.

 You posted earlier today this:

“Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was.”

 This (“severely east-based/EP like 1997”) is not true when you compare the regions, which is how E based/C based/Modoki are defined.

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 But it’s less E based than 82-3 and much less E based than 97-8 as I just showed. Since you’ve been emphasizing how much E based 26-7 is looking, what do you think about this?

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Regarding 1+2 less 3.4 per the table link below, 1982-3 fall/winter monthly peak was +1.1. This is based on Nov, which had 1+2 at +3.0 vs 3.4’s +1.9. 1997-8 peak differential was way up at +2.1 (also in Nov)! This is based on 1+2’s +4.5 vs 3.4’s +2.4. But the Euro per Ben’s quoted charts above has a mere only ~+0.7 for 2026-7’s peak monthly 1+2 less 3.4, which is in Sept with 1+2 then ~+3.8 vs 3.4’s ~+3.1! 

  So, the Euro is actually forecasting 26-7 to have a somewhat weaker 1+2 less 3.4 than 82-3 and MUCH weaker than 97-8. So per this measure, it’s forecasting a less E based 26-7 than 82-2 and MUCH less E based than 97-8.

Monthly ERSST:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

20 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.” 

 

 

Winter storms in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry.

 So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being mainly from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).

 Today’s OISST update (for June 3rd) doesn’t have the dramatic 0.09C rise of each of the last 2 days, but it still rose 0.04C to +1.229C.The implied RONI equivalent is ~+0.7C:

*Corrected for typos*

18 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Modelology vs meteorology. 

Where exactly is the cold air coming from if it’s all above normal north of Tennessee? It has to travel from somewhere on the way down right? Cold air can’t come from the pacific at California’s latitude. Which would mean at minimum, near or slightly below normal temps north of TN as it travels down? 

Yeah. i don’t buy wall to wall torch up here either. Maybe it’s 80/20, 70/30 or whatever. But the main reason that it’s blue in the South while dark red over the Great lakes is due to the uniformity of the airmass. 40s is well above normal for the Grest Lakes, but below normal for Louisiana. 

 

 

 With the typical mean +PNA, even Canadian air that’s mild for them and the N US can come down rapidly enough to be BN once it gets to the south. Example: 20 F in MSP, which is AN for there in winter, can come down fast enough to limit modification and still bring BN 30F to the south. Some of the coldest winters in the SE were when it was mild in Canada. Canadian air with a straight shot down here is always cold for us. The coldest anomalies in a +PNA are often in the SE with New England to the Lakes often NN.

21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Significant improvements on this weeks drought monitor for pretty much everywhere in region besides northern piedmont of NC. Some areas have gone all the way to just the “abnormally dry” category and much of SC and eastern NC is now only in “moderate” category. 
 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

Good news here. Not surprisingly, the “exceptional” that covered most of SE GA has improved one level to “extreme”. Reason to celebrate as it’s “only” extreme now.   

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

It has begun in the EPAC

 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Amanda Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2026 
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 128.2W
ABOUT 1475 MI...2375 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was 
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 128.2 West. Amanda is 
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west and 
west-southwest at a slower forward motion is forecast this weekend. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 
couple of days. A weakening trend is forecast later this weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Hey yoda,

 Thanks. Would you please post this in this newly created 2026 C and E Pacific tropical thread? TIA.

Please post 2026 C and E Pacific discussion/activity in here. Thank you.

Tropical ATL predictions so far ITT:

ineedsnow  11/4/2

me 8/4/1 ACE 52

LongBeachSurfFreak 12/5/2

Jconsor 13/6/2 ACE 90

 Any others? Please get your entries in by Sunday evening. The winning prize is fantastic, a kudos!

 The model progs are suggesting a shot at a 1017 mb Darwin SLP on June 7th. If that occurs, it would easily become the new highest Darwin SLP that early in the year based on records back to 1992. The current record highest that early in the year is 4/22/2023’s 1016.2 mb. If it reaches 1017, it would become the earliest 1017 on record by ~15 days!

Here we go folks. June 2nd was the 2nd day in a row of a steep warming in 3.4 (another 0.09) (RONI up to ~+0.7C). That makes it a two day warming total of 0.18C! It hasn’t warmed at this rate since way back in mid-April. A notable but delayed warming after the start of a long and strong -SOI period is common and was in addition to model hints why I said on Monday before this two day rise to expect after the prior 15 day pause next week’s weekly 3.4 update to be a few ticks warmer:

This morning was a refreshing low of 60 at KSAV and 64 at KSVN. Dewpoints are in the very nice/rare for June mid 40s. So, needless to say, I intend to walk at one of the parks this evening as I did yesterday.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Since 1980, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are an extremely strong tendency for warmth. I believe there have been 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers in the last 46 years and every one of them were warm if I’m not mistaken

I also have 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers since 1980:

1982, 1987, 1994, 2006, 2015, 2018

I’m counting the barely positive QBOs of 1997 and 2004 as neutral QBO. Otherwise there’d be 8.

 The only one of the 6 that wasn’t warm in the E US was 2018, which was NN to slightly AN in the E US. So, it appears to be a pretty good correlation although the sample size is pretty small.

Aside: Today’s SOI was the most negative so far this year at -34.80.

1 hour ago, roardog said:

So does a Modoki just have to have lower anomalies in 3 and 1+2 than in 3.4 and 4 or does 1+2 need to be negative? I feel like that’s the same scenario just opposite. 

Lower anomalies in 3/1+2 than 3.4/4. The bigger/smaller the differential, the stronger/weaker the Modoki.

54 minutes ago, roardog said:

A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year. 

I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.

 There was just some very light rain today (a T). It was windy from the E as cooler, drier air was coming in. With temps down to the mid 70s, the steady breeze, and dewpoints in the mid 50s, it easily felt good enough to walk at the park for the first time in nearly 2 weeks despite a few rain drops.

OISST rose on June 1st a whopping ~0.09C, which is the largest gain in one day since way back on April 13th! Is this just the start of an overall big warming? Based on the recent SOI and models, I think it is:

Latest CFS run’s peak: +3.0 (record is 1982’s +2.5). Whereas this could easily be overdone based on the past, getting at least a 1982 like record peak of +2.5 is likely at this point.
 
 This has June at +1.0. With today near +0.6, there’s going to need to be pretty rapid warming within the next couple of weeks to keep up with this. Based on the recent/current strong -SOI, this is quite doable as of now:

Nino 3.4 was unchanged at +0.5 in yesterday’s release. The other 3 regions warmed 0.1. I’m expecting 3.4 to be a few ticks warmer in the next weekly release as a typical delayed reaction to the start of the SOI drop a couple of weeks ago. 
 

 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. 
 

Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm.

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬

 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 20h

Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record.

 

2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026

Everybody

Thanks, Chris.

 Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.

 Latest CFS DJF fits super Nino climo well unlike what Cansips is still showing, which may be related to it having Modoki:

CFS DJF: looks like what one would expect with super-Nino:

Cansips DJF: still looks off but may be due to it having Modoki

19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

Cansips is still going full Modoki unlike Euro and CFS. But I think it may have a Modoki bias based on at least one previous year.

Latest Cansips DJF has warmest SST anomalies over W region 3.4/region 4: (**corrected** as I had region 3 typo)

*Edited for typo