GaWx
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Posts posted by GaWx
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Invest 91-L now
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1. The RRFS, which will replace NAM, has been developing this into a TS.
2. 0Z UKMET moves up TCG to 8PM Saturday and is stronger (winds almost to H strength Tue AM, which is high for the typically conservatively low UK) as it moves mainly slowly W to the NW GOM:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.1N 83.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.1N 83.8W 1011 27
1200UTC 19.07.2026 36 27.6N 84.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.9N 85.1W 1002 33
0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.0N 85.4W 999 37
1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.9N 85.5W 997 46
0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.1N 85.4W 993 56
1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 29.6N 85.4W 995 59
0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 29.2N 86.1W 996 53
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 28.6N 87.2W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 28.0N 88.6W 998 41
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 27.6N 89.9W 999 39
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 29.0N 91.4W 1002 35-
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Will CAE finally reach 100? They’ve already reached 99.
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34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Not the worst look on visible, but for TC genesis it's going to need to be able to fire more persistent convection.
12Z UKMET has moved TCG back up to Sunday (AM) and in E GOM. Becomes TS Mon night. It initially moves WNW followed by slowly SW/SSW after hr 144 into N Central GOM, similar to 0Z run (slow movement throughout):
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 26.9N 84.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 27.4N 85.1W 1012 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.8N 85.7W 1009 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 28.2N 86.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.1N 87.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 27.9N 87.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 28.6N 87.6W 1000 43
1200UTC 22.07.2026 120 29.3N 88.2W 1003 44
0000UTC 23.07.2026 132 29.5N 88.6W 1004 35
1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 29.2N 89.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 28.4N 89.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.7N 89.7W 1002 40 -
The CFS AAM at this site FINALLY updated for the 1st time in 2 weeks!
Prior run from July 3rd:
New one from today: +2 now but progged on 7/25 to drop to +1 vs the ~+2.2 mean on old run; progged mean doesn’t rise back to +2 til Aug 4th. Old run mean for Aug 4th was way up >+3. All of this is added evidence of a significant + bias out >2 weeks. Regardless, +AAM in full control, which is continued evidence of an intact steadily strengthening Nino:
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On 7/14/2026 at 4:26 PM, GaWx said:
There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged.
This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.
Sure enough, Darwin on July 16th exceeded 1018 mb for only the 2nd day since daily records started in 1991, a sign of El Niño. It reached 1018.25, which trailed only the 1018.35 of 21 years ago!
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9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today.
The UKMET (0Z), after having dropped this from TCG, brought back TCG. Also, unlike the 2 Wednesday runs that had it form on Sun in NE Gulf followed by a NE move across FL, this run delays development til Tue and then moves it slowly WSW:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32
1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33
0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39
1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48 -
CFSv2 latest 10 day mean of JFM 2m anomalies is beautiful fwiw:
Same for precip:
Whereas this looks great and I’d love for it to verify closely, it’s important to keep in mind the following for the NE US regarding 15 years of mid-July CFSv2 JFM prog verifications (2012-26):-Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12
-Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14
-Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13
Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) were too cold…so not a strong cold bias and thus there’s still a reasonable level of hope that it could verify well.
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The cold bias in the SE is even stronger:-Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12
-Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14
-Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13
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Interestingly, this cold JFM 2027 CFSv2 forecast isn’t a whole lot colder than the following one also made in mid-July for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):
This is what verified: so, CFSv2 was close in NE but too cold in the S 1/2 of US:
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11 minutes ago, roardog said:
How is it looking? You’re pretty good at guessing what the SOI will be in the coming days. Will we break the record?
We’ll likely exceed 1997’s 72 days, which would put it as 2nd longest on record (back to 1991). But #1 (from 1998) is way up at 100 days. I have no idea if it will get that high. With that still being 33 days away, it would be quite awhile before I could even try to forecast whether or not it will be reached. Since that would be quite the accomplishment, I feel chances are well under 50% as of now. Let’s see how things go.
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At just before 8PM, I started getting mainly light to occasionally moderate rain. The relevant convection had developed nearby as a result of an E moving outflow boundary colliding with the seabreeze front. But what had been a heavy thunderstorm weakened by the time it started here. So, whereas this is measurable, it still isn’t much.
Edit: I got only ~0.04”.
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On 7/10/2026 at 11:18 AM, GaWx said:
Thanks, Adam. So, Long Paddock after ~a week finally came back to updating its daily SOIs. This is what I earlier posted about this:
In doing so, it also retroactively changed some dailies prior to July 3rd. What’s most interesting is that those changes changed what had been 2 small positives to negatives: June 18th/19th changed from +4/+1 to -4/-4. Based on the original June 18th release of +4, a 37 day -SOI streak had apparently ended June 18th. However, with these changes, it didn’t and thus we’re in a very long -SOI streak that’s now at a whopping 62 days and is still going strong!How does this compare to the longest back to 1991?
-100 days in 1998
-72 days in 1997
-66 days in 2015
-65 days in 2023
-62 days and counting 2026
Today, we made it to 67 straight -SOI days, which puts the current streak in 3rd place back to 1991! So, this one is behind only two from the 1997-8 Nino. Reaching and possibly exceeding 2nd place ‘97’s 72 days is likely as of now. How long will it go?
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17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Yeah not sure there’s going to be enough time for TC genesis, but nothing set in stone yet.
After 2 runs forming a TS from this, the last 2 runs dropped that and instead both develop something well out in the Atlantic subtropics:
0Z 7/16/26 UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 27.9N 63.9W 1014 29
0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 30.6N 66.2W 1013 31
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12Z 7/16/26 UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 29.1N 63.9W 1014 30
1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 32.3N 65.2W 1014 31-
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My area has had some thunderstorms pop-up with light rain starting ~2PM. This may not amount to too much.
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The latest daily OISST anomaly update for 3.4 had a warming of a whopping 0.13C, which is the largest rise since June 4th. This is the kind of move that will probably be needed from time to time to get August averaged out up to the mid +2s:
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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east
Believable but will it actually happen? Nobody knows. Largest month to month warming on record is 0.85 (Jan ‘56). The largest warming on record in Aug is 0.61 (1988). Actually, the largest on record of any month July-Oct is only that 0.61.
Here are the largest on record:0.85 Jan 1956
0.84 June 1968
0.78 Mar 1951
0.73 Feb 1976
0.71 May 2026
0.68 Nov 2009
0.68 Mar 2000
0.66 May 1967
0.61 Aug 1988
0.61 Jan 1975
0.60 Oct 1991
0.60 Jan 1953
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt -
38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:
I was just looking at that stuff...
According to CPC most recent power point,
yet the present NINO 3.4. regional anomalies ( found here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 ) are already floating around +2.00 C. So, either their CFSv2 product is less accurate as a predictive use ( by over a whole deg C ), or... Climate Reanalyzer's data is suss.
I don't really care to get into that ..per se, I'm really just more interested in general with the comparison between monitoring vs modeling: where are we?
That CFS graph is referring to relative 3.4 anomalies, which are currently in the +1.3 to +1.5 region rather than ~+2.0. Actually, the official relative 3.4 for last week was only +1.3:
08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
The CFS latest 10 day mean prog has a whopping +2.3 for relative 3.4 in August! August will be a really big test to see if the progged record breaking Nino is still on track as that would require a near 1C rise from July! Going back to the start of records in 1950, there has never been a 1C+ rise within just one month. I‘m talking about any month in any ENSO. Will it actually warm that much in August??
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:
Parts of the East had their lowest snowfall of the 1800s that winter.
The big story during the 1877-1878 super El Niño was the warmth in the Upper Midwest.
It’s an example how really strong El Niños can sometimes have their warmest departures in February.
While we don’t have the 1841-1870 climate normals for MSP, I used the earliest available 30 year period.
The departures for them that winter would have been like if December 2015 had run through February 2016 in the Northeast with no pattern reversal.
MSP 1877-1878DEC….+14.5
JAN…..+9.8
FEB……+15.8
Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Mean 19.3 12.0 15.7 15.6 Max 33.8
187725.9
188031.9
18771872-1873 6.0 5.4 12.8 8.1 1873-1874 17.6 12.2 12.6 14.1 1874-1875 17.2 -3.4 -2.6 3.7 1875-1876 24.7 15.7 15.9 18.8 1876-1877 8.3 8.6 31.9 16.3 1877-1878 33.8 21.8 31.5 29.0 1878-1879 19.1 16.1 12.7 16.0 1879-1880 11.5 25.9 19.6 19.0 1880-1881 13.2 7.9 17.1 12.7 1881-1882 29.0 19.0 30.4 26.1 1882-1883 15.0 0.8 12.1 9.3 1883-1884 19.7 8.8 12.9 13.8 1884-1885 14.8 4.4 11.3 10.2 1885-1886 21.0 3.7 14.9 13.2 1886-1887 7.3 0.7 9.4 5.8 1887-1888 17.4 -0.4 13.1 10.0 1888-1889 25.2 20.7 10.6 18.8 1889-1890 28.8 10.6 19.2 19.5 1890-1891 24.4 21.6 11.8 19.3 1891-1892 30.1 13.5 22.9 22.2 1892-1893 16.8 7.3 12.0 12.0 1893-1894 14.0 12.3 15.7 14.0 1894-1895 28.1 7.0 12.0 15.7 1895-1896 22.5 16.8 22.3 20.5 1896-1897 24.4 10.6 20.0 18.3 1897-1898 15.3 23.0 20.6 19.6 1898-1899 14.1 13.7 7.8 11.9 1899-1900 21.4 21.3 8.6 17.1 1900-1901 21.0 15.2 12.3 16.2 1901-1902 15.9 18.7 18.2 17.6
Unlike the very mild Feb 1878 in the upper Midwest, the E US’ warmest month of that winter was the fairly typical El Niño warmest Dec. In contrast, Feb was only modestly AN in a good portion of the NE to NN in the SE. Jan was NN to BN. Jan-Feb combined in much of the E US wasn’t mild at all and instead was largely NN (no more than slightly AN in the NE and even BN in good part of SE). -
17 minutes ago, csnavywx said:
Here's the continental composite using the 1861-1900 average to detrend. Note that a simple detrend, while helpful, still assumes that SST changes since then will scale linearly in terms of forcing (almost certainly not going to be the case). Nevertheless, the overall pattern makes it clear that the continent will mostly suffer from high frequency intrusion of downslope events, enhanced by anomalous moisture transport and a surplus moist static energy.
This map agrees with many of the official SE station temps being NN (and even BN in FL as Jacksonville and other official temps confirm). It also shows that the torch was centered in the Midwest and Plains with no torch near the E coast (ex: NYC was ~+1.3F, not a torch). Much of NE coast was only 1-2 F AN per the city by city official temps.
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More on the not mild 1877-8 in much of the E US:
NYC using 1869-1900 for normals
Dec 37.4 (+3.2) AN
Jan 29.9 (-0.4) NN
Feb 32.3 (+1.2) NN
So, DJF +1.3 NN with only Dec warmer than normal and even it wasn’t a torch
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57 minutes ago, csnavywx said:
Leaning towards it getting even stronger than the 1877-78 event, much less the 97/98 one, but that depends on whether or not we get any sort of pause in the WWB train/standing wave. That event was exotically warm across most of North America through the vast majority of the winter. In fact, farmers were planting their crops in Minnesota in February (yes, really).
Article covering that from Mark Seeley out of the University of Minnesota: 1878 El Niño saw crops planted in February
Texas itself was mild (relative to normal at the time) and very wet into the fall and especially winter. The current event you're suffering through is a side effect of a persistent rossby wave train that has set up in (at least in part) due to the response to the forcing induced by the developing Nino, but ENSO relationships in the summer are weaker and it's also partly just bad luck.
However in the SE US, as has often been the case with super El Niño winters, 1877-8, was actually near normal (mild Dec, cold Jan, and NN Feb). For example, Asheville was mild in Dec but then had a cold and snowy Jan (8.5” from 2 storms) followed by a NN Feb. DJF averaged NN.
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp
Also, Augusta and Savannah averaged NN.
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56 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:
Do you have the September or October 2015 prediction for JFM 2016?
That JFM 2014 prediction was spot on, lol.
CFS Oct 1-10 mean prog for JFM ‘16:
Actual: fairly close N tier but too cold S 1/2:
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A shower with moderate to heavy rain just popped right over my area at 3PM.
Edit: My total was only ~0.1”, which gets me to ~4.15” MTD.
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12Z UKMET fairly similar to 0Z run but SE of that track:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 27.0N 83.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 27.0N 83.0W 1012 27
0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 27.2N 82.5W 1010 23
1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.3N 81.3W 1012 29
0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 30.0N 79.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 31.8N 77.6W 1004 39
0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 33.8N 75.5W 1001 41
1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING -
Further to my CFSv2 post above, here’s how the CFSv2 did in the E US with their mid-July forecasts for the subsequent JFM:
For ‘26 (Nina) too warm
For ‘25 (Nina): close NE; too warm SE
For ‘24 (Nino): too cold, especially NE
For ‘23 (Nina): much too cold, esp. NE
For ‘22 (Nina): overall a bit too warm
For ‘21 (Nina): a bit too cold
For ‘20 (warm neutral): much too cold (similar miss to ‘23)
For ‘19 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE
For ‘18 (Niña): close
For ‘17 (Niña): much too cold (similar miss to ‘20 and ‘23)
For ‘16 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE
For ‘15 (Nino): much too warm NE, too warm SE
For ‘14 (cold neutral): a bit too warm (good forecast but not cold enough)
For ‘13 (cold neutral): close
For ‘12 (Niña): much too cold (similar to ‘17, ‘20, ‘23)
The all important tally for the 15 JFMs of ‘12-‘26 to give us idea of summer CFS bias:
1) NE
-Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12-Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14
-Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13
Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) too cold…so not a strong cold bias averaged out where one can take a CFS fcast and assume it will be too cold since only 40% too cold…thus, that wouldn’t be wise
2) SE
-Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12
-Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14
-Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13
Overall, averages a cold bias in the SE, especially since 4 much too cold and none much too warm. OTOH, not a strong cold bias averaged out since only slightly more than 50% too cold; so wouldn’t be wise at all to assume CFS will verify as too cold
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2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
By the way, the 12Z UKMET was the 4th full run (full runs are at 0Z/12Z) that developed this into a mainly W moving full fledged TS. The last 2 runs developed it into a TD by early tomorrow morning! Landfall near LA/TX border:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.1N 84.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.5N 84.9W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 36 28.1N 85.2W 1006 28
1200UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.2N 86.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.1N 86.1W 1002 33
1200UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.4N 86.1W 1000 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.2N 86.2W 997 50
1200UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.6N 86.9W 998 51
0000UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.3N 87.8W 996 52
1200UTC 23.07.2026 120 28.9N 88.8W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 132 28.7N 90.0W 999 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 144 29.0N 92.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 25.07.2026 156 29.3N 94.2W 1004 37
1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING