GaWx

2 minutes ago, hooralph said:

i thought I saw KNYC tied the record high low at 84, but the hourly obs say 84.9. Did we tie or break it?

Per this, the lowest at NYC as of 8AM today was 84:

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html

 At C Park, the lowest so far today is 84. IF that were to hold up through 11:59PM, it would tie the all time highest low there on record! 

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I stand corrected. 104+ anywhere up there is insane 

 Indeed! I’m not at all trying to minimize the heatwave in the NYC area. There has been some talk about Central Park running a couple of degrees cooler for highs than in the past due to increased foliage (showing the cooling power of foliage). Even so, 100F with increased foliage is obviously still very intense. Also, C Park had a low of only a ridiculous 82 yesterday!

 At C Park, the lowest so far today is 84. IF that were to hold up through 11:59PM, it would tie the all time highest low there, which goes way back to 1869! 

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

NYC hit 104 yesterday at both LGA and Central Park 

 Whereas La Guardia did hit 104 and Newark hit 105, the official Central Park high actually was “only” 100.

28 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Round 2 in 10 days?

 Once again the GFS (6Z) is way too hot in the extended. Even if H5 reaches the near record high upper 590s as it has, highs on July 14-15th will not reach anywhere near as hot as this shows even with the drought:

6Z GFS July 14th highs: for example 112 at SAV is loltastic as that’s compared to the 105 all-time hottest on record there back 155 years!

6Z GFS July 15th highs: also not going to happen

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time that a number of stations in the East approached their all-time warmest temperature with a developing super El Niño. 
 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-02
1	104.0	1933-08-01 through 1933-08-01
2	103.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	103.0	2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09
-	103.0	1995-07-16 through 1995-07-16
-	103.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
-	103.0	1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10
3	102.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
-	102.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	102.0	1991-07-20 through 1991-07-20
-	102.0	1991-07-19 through 1991-07-19

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2026-07-02
1	107.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
2	104.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	104.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
-	104.0	2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09
2	103.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	103.0	1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15
-	103.0	1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26
4	102.0	2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02
-	102.0	1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02
5	101.0	2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1873-12-04 to 2026-07-02
1	106.0	1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07
2	104.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
-	104.0	1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10
3	103.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	103.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
-	103.0	2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07
-	103.0	1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15
-	103.0	1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04
-	103.0	1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09
-	103.0	1930-07-21 through 1930-07-21

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1888-01-01 to 2026-07-02
1	106.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
2	105.0	1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07
3	104.0	1918-08-06 through 1918-08-06
4	103.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	103.0	2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07
-	103.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
-	103.0	1898-07-03 through 1898-07-03
5	102.0	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21
-	102.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	102.0	1988-07-17 through 1988-07-17

 This jibes with my response 3 posts above yours to Jeff B.’s implied false connection of the current developing super-Nino to increased very intense heat in the E US based on his Tweet. Only the summer of 1991 was hot overall in the E US as I said, which is essentially agreed with by your lists. I’m referring to Poughkeepsie’s 102 on 7/19/1991. None of the other developing super-Ninos prior to 2026-7 are on any of your 4 lists.

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing. 

 I don’t agree at all with Jeff B. implying a connection of super-Nino and the current E US heatwave. The mean temp in July (and also in summer as a whole) comes out close to normal rather than hot in the E US when averaging RONI based super strong El Niños. Hardly any were hot. 1957, 65, 72, and 97 were slightly cool. 1982 and 2015 were NN. Only 1991 was hot. That’s just 1 of the 7! That’s enough for me to say that the upcoming super-El Nino in combo with GW is not the direct cause for the current E US heatwave as Jeff said. GW, by itself, obviously favors hotter heatwaves than when the Earth was cooler. But the supposed super-El Nino piece of this, itself, correlating to E US summer heat does not compute to me at all.

 I also don’t at all agree with Jeff calling this one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves. That’s simply not true. Intense in the VA to Boston corridor? Yes. But not one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves.

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

@Rjay @GaWx

I think are the only 2 that have not submitted. Up to folks how they want to handle the late entries (quite a few by just a few hours). I’ll be back early on the 5th so I should be able to post updates, iffy connection at times so hopefully this goes through. Happy 4th everyone!

Thank you, but I don’t think I’m going to do July. I’m currently too busy to take enough time to analyze the data (forecast and historic) well.

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For the U.S., one hasn't typically seen such heat domes during summers preceding strong/super El Niño events. Such events have been far more common in Europe and Asia. However, during 2015 (Pacific Northwest) and 2023 (July-August in the Southwest/South Central) such domes appeared. Whether these recent events suggest that things are changing in the warming climate (especially more expansive marine heatwaves) remains to be seen. A sample size of two is too small to draw firm conclusions.

Thanks, Don. I’ll reiterate that I was referring to only E US rather than all of the U.S. mean temps (especially in July) and that I didn’t even consider 2023 because it was only borderline moderate/strong on a RONI basis with a peak of only +1.49. So, 2015, with its heatwave in the Pacific NW (nowhere close to the E US) and 2023  not being nearly strong enough to count as super-Nino per the now official (per NOAA) RONI basis don’t even count for me against super El Niño E US heat. And even if 2023 were counted, its heat was most concentrated in the SW/SC rather than E US.

 I’ll reiterate that I thought Chris Martz looked really bad due to saying “it’s called summer” and for saying “heat dome” wasn’t the correct term. However, I also said Jeff B. was wrong for calling the current/upcoming US heatwave one of the most expansive in history. Here again is Chris’ post responding to Jeff:

 But I forgot to earlier mention this: The mean temp in July (and also in summer as a whole) comes out close to normal rather than hot in the E US when averaging RONI based super strong El Niños. See image below. Hardly any were hot. 1957, 65, 72, and 97 were slightly cool. 1982 and 2015 were NN. Only 1991 was hot. That’s just 1 of the 7! That’s enough for me to say that the upcoming super-El Nino in combo with GW is not the direct cause for the current E US heatwave as Jeff said. GW, by itself, obviously favors hotter heatwaves than when the Earth was cooler. But the supposed super-El Nino piece of this, itself, correlating to E US heat does not compute to me at all. Thus whereas I thought Chris’ post was terrible, I also think Jeff’s was pretty bad, itself. 

@donsutherland1

As bad as it will be in much of the SE, consider that the NYC forecasted low for July 4th is a very oppressive 81 F!

19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

As of 6/29, 2026 sea ice area is 7.09 million sq km. This is currently 5th lowest:

 

2012: -380k

2010: -280k

2019: -170k

2024: -40k

2011: +2k

2020: +4k

2025: +10k

 

Still another day or two before I run the numbers but a new record is nearly ruled out. Top 3 is definitely still on the table. 

 
Thanks. Looking forward to your update.

 Per the following source (AMSR2), the current Arctic ice area is now getting pretty low with it a bit lower than 2020 and 2016, ~0.5 million sq km lower than 2024, and ~0.4 million sq km lower than the 2013-24 mean. Do you know anything about the reliability of this source?
 

 The CFS AAM forecast at the site I follow just updated for the first time in 6 days:

Prior run there is 0Z of 6/25: strongest multi week mean I’ve ever seen/saved with it way up at a mean of +2.8 to +3.3 July 8th to end of run, which is July 29th:

 Brand new run (0Z of 7/1): still a very strong +AAM but not surprisingly no longer to the near record breaking levels of the 0Z 6/25 run as mean is ~+2.5 on July 8th instead of +2.8, mean then has a near term peak of ~+2.65 on July 12th-13th, and then it’s mainly low to mid +2s July 14-29th instead of +2.8 to +3.3:

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s the ONI scale which is only around tenth of a degree C° warmer from a 27.8 to a 27.9 average than 1981-2010.
 

 

Thanks, Chris. I believe that would make the most up to date relative ENSO anomalies ~0.6C cooler than 1981-2010 anomalies in June. Is that incorrect?

 Please post July ‘26 obs from your area as well as current wx events/obs in July for other areas. It’s going to be quite hot with some records possibly being threatened especially in NC during the first part of the month.

@buckeyefan1please pin this. Thank you.

Just now, bluewave said:

I don’t think the overall picture would change much since the 1981-2010 climo isn’t any different along the equator in the Pacific ENSO regions.

Relative ENSO region anomalies are currently ~0.5 C cooler than 1991-2020 anomalies and likely ~0.6 to 0.7C cooler than 1981-2010 anomalies.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While the CanSIPS hasn’t had much skill with long range ENSO 500 mb patterns and temperatures over the CONUS, it will be interesting to see if it has some clue about the SST configuration.

Notice how the much warmer the Indio-Pacific warm pool becomes following this super event than it initializes at the current time. My guess is the big baseline global temperature jump it has warms the SSTs.

There is some cooling immediately near Japan. But the warm pool gets pushed a little east.  Also notice how much warmer the Atlantic basin becomes. The extended CFS runs are doing something similar with the SSTs. 

The ENSO region would probably be the strangest look of all. Notice how skinny the developing La Niña cold tongue is by next June around the Galápagos Islands. It’s surrounded by continuing Nino-like waters just off equator. 
 

Note that this is based on very outdated 1981-2010 climo. If instead it were using relative climo, that skinny La Niña tongue wouldn’t be as skinny since it would be compared to much more up to date warmer climo taking into account avg. warming of global tropical waters from GW. For the same reason, the surrounding tropical waters’ anomalies there wouldn’t be as warm.

 My total rainfall in June was ~5.35”.

 It’s official. The DMI daily mean Arctic temp N of 80N, with the help of a +AO, never made it up to freezing in June! The previous latest to first get to freezing was June 20th, set in 2013. The June 30th # was -0.25C. Let’s see whether it gets above 0C on July 1st: @Stormchaserchuck1

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

snowman made the stronger claim that +qbo, +enso decembers are a slam dunk always warmer than normal REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH (his exact words go read it). 1997/2004 are weakly +qbo. He's wrong.

 If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015.

Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now. 1997 is neutral QBO, not +QBO. So, it doesn’t need to be considered.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

He said the fact that we’ve had 6 +QBO/El Nino Decembers since 1980 is a lie

+QBO Nino Decembers: 1982 (warm temps), 1987 (warm), 1994 (warm), 2006 (warm), 2015 (warm), and 2018 (normal).

I count 1997’s 0.78 as neutral QBO

2004’s +2.45 and falling is pretty neutral

 So, I agree on 6 Nino Dec +QBOs since 1980. And all but one were warm. 2018 was NN. Favors warmth in Dec for sure!

And 1997/2004 (neutral QBO) weren’t warm.

Edit: Dec of 1957 also had +QBO and was warm! But Dec of 1963 (moderate Nino) and Dec of 1969 (weak Nino) were cold despite +QBO.

**Edit 2: If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015.

Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now.

@PhiEaglesfan712

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

NWS has ticked the point click down from max temps 105-106 to 101-102 depending on where you are in wake county. Still extreme but not record shattering as originally forecast 

This is likely at least partially tied to the hot biased GFS not being as hot as it was (never was believable in the first place due to bias). But still the Carolinas and Virginia are facing a dangerous heatwave and potential records.

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So you’re calling @GaWx a liar too? Moron

Thanks, Adam. Please explain to me how Marc is calling me a liar. I‘m not saying I don’t agree or disagree. I just want to know what you’re referring to. TIA.

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of Europe's record-setting June heatwave and the guidance suggesting that parts of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions could challenge July monthly and even all-time heat records, the climate change denial movement is desperately trying to frame the heat as ordinary summer heat. One example from a fossil fuel advocacy group's policy analyst in attacking a meteorologically sound post:

In the past week, Belarus, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Poland, and Slovakia set all-time national heat records. Austria, France (with 292 cities setting all-time records), Switzerland, and the United Kingdom set June monthly records. 

But to the ignorant, that's just "summer."

The latest guidance suggests that the July 1-4 period could see locations in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions challenge July monthly and even all-time records.

But again to the ignorant, that's just "summer."

And finally the ignorant policy analyst's claim that nationally-recognized meteorologist Jeff Berardelli should use the "correct terminology" instead of "heat dome," proves incorrect. It's the policy analyst who has no clue.

From the AMS Glossary of Meteorology:

Rather than making wild claims about subject matter with which he obviously is unfamiliar, he should brush up on the basics and put aside a belief system that is a repudiation of both science and reason. Arrogance and ignorance are a toxic combination for any profession. 

In any case, the extraordinary June heatwave is consistent with the warming global climate, including the rapid warming in Europe. No ranting, raving, or other forms of deflection or projection can erase what happened, much less undermine the science that is based on overwhelming and unequivocal evidence.

Hey Don,

  My point in thanking you for your post was agreeing with you about Chris Martz. Chris is both openly dismissing the contribution of AGW in these cases and is also dead wrong about the use of the term “heat dome”.

 But at the same time, I disagree with Jeff B. in calling this US heatwave one of the most “expansive”. It’s quite intense with record highs likely for a couple of days, but certainly not in a large portion of the country:

 This is the largest extent of the heat dome at H5 expected to produce record heat in and near the Mid-Atlantic states:

 Compare that to this significantly more expansive heatwave over the U.S.: 594 dm from E coast to Rockies and also N to MSP in addition to it peaking at ~600 vs the current one peaking at ~597:

 There are others, including the Dust Bowl years, especially July of 1936, that had some days of 100++ over a much larger portion of the U.S. In contrast, the current one is forecasted at its peak extent to have 100+ only mainly from E GA to the NYC/Hartford areas, which is not one of the most expansive in US history:

 Thunderstorms popped up along the Savannah River ~1-1.5 hours ago. They’re moving in a somewhat unusual SE direction and one is about to get going here. Some rain drops just started falling and I hear plenty of thunder.

Edit: It looks like I got ~0.2”.