GaWx

19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+2 for Nino 3.4?

Don’t forget that CDAS is slightly cold biased. But this chart isn’t relative. Relative OISST is in the +1.6-+1.7 range.

 I’m guessing that tomorrow’s weekly relative Nino 3.4 release will have it at +1.5 with +1.6 on the high end.

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think they are re-adjusting some of the daily SOI's. I remember it being higher in recent days. This is quite a streak:

19 Jul 2026	1013.04	1016.50	-27.15	-27.71	-19.78
18 Jul 2026	1013.56	1016.50	-23.95	-27.02	-19.48
17 Jul 2026	1013.50	1016.95	-27.09	-26.34	-19.15
16 Jul 2026	1013.27	1018.25	-36.50	-25.58	-18.73
15 Jul 2026	1012.10	1017.65	-40.01	-24.45	-18.16
14 Jul 2026	1011.36	1016.35	-36.56	-23.53	-17.62
13 Jul 2026	1010.44	1015.10	-34.53	-23.20	-17.20
12 Jul 2026	1009.89	1015.20	-38.53	-23.21	-16.92
11 Jul 2026	1011.77	1015.80	-30.66	-23.06	-16.66
10 Jul 2026	1013.16	1015.45	-19.94	-22.84	-16.52
9 Jul 2026	1011.59	1014.45	-23.45	-22.68	-16.60
8 Jul 2026	1008.90	1015.20	-44.63	-22.32	-16.71
7 Jul 2026	1009.02	1015.35	-44.81	-21.68	-16.58
6 Jul 2026	1011.31	1015.45	-31.33	-21.34	-16.28
5 Jul 2026	1010.44	1015.25	-35.46	-21.21	-16.03
4 Jul 2026	1010.84	1015.20	-32.69	-21.02	-15.72

 

90-day SOI hasn't been -20 since 1998.. first biggest El Nino event of the 2000s.

That July 16th Darwin 1018.25 mb is its 2nd highest on record back to 1991. The highest is only barely higher, 1018.35 (mid-2004).

*Corrected

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Again to reiterate, a Winter east vs west-based El Nino

Thanks, Chuck. So, temps are clearly colder with W vs E based. Is some of this because the strongest El Niño winters tend to have warmer 1+2?

 However, with regard to wintry precip, itself, the SE appears to have done a bit better with C based (3.4 warmest) than W based (4 warmest) if I’m recalling my research correctly. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My statement was correct. The winter of 2025-2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the CONUS.

While it’s difficult to find a perfect match, the forecasts were close to a 1994-1995 outcome which was the 12th warmest winter for the CONUS.

So for the CONUS the seasonal forecasts were too cold due to the extreme nature of the warmth out West.

I kept the scales in (C )for a direct comparison to the ECMWF forecast.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/03/we-just-had-the-second-warmest-winter-in-u-s-history-despite-icy-blasts/

Rankings and departures out West were much higher than the East

Verification in (C)

 I realize ‘25-6 DJF was mild overall in the CONUS on a geographic basis. I’m not disputing that. But I think you’re being a bit too harsh on model performance for 25-6.

 The winter averaged 37.1F, which was 3.1F warmer than the Euro’s climo base of 1993-2016 and 3.0F warmer than the CFSv2’s climo base of 1991-2020. The forecasted mean anomaly for both the 8/1/25 Euro and the mid-July ‘25 avg CFSv2 was ~+2F for the CONUS on a geog. area basis or ~36F. This was actually a bit warmer than the 35.6 of 1994-5. Thus, the models were only ~1F too warm on a geog. area basis.

 Here are the warmest CONUS winters since 1895-6 (excluding 2025-6):

37.5 in 2023-4

36.8 in 2015-6

36.5 in 1999-00

36.4 in 1991-2

36.3 in 2011-2

36.3 in 1998-9

36.0 in 1999-00

 
 Thus, with their ~36F progged mean, these 2 models were essentially predicting about the 7th-8th warmest CONUS winter since 1895-6. It came out 2nd. I think that’s pretty darn good.
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The models were too cold with their 2025-2026 CONUS forecast since the magnitude of the Western warmth was significantly greater than the cold in the East. Just by looking at any of the seasonal models would not have given any indication of the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS.
 

 
 Mid July ‘25 CFSv2 2m fcast for winter 25-6:


8/1/25 Euro 2m fcast for winter 25-6:

Actual 2m for winter 25-6:

So, these 2 were much too warm in the E US, pretty close central, and not nearly warm enough W, especially in/near Rockies. W coast though was fairly close.

*Edited for typo

12Z UKMET: 6th run in row with TS but dissipates off TX

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 85.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 27.1N 85.2W 1012 22
0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 27.9N 84.9W 1009 22
1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 27.6N 85.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.2N 85.5W 1005 30
1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.8N 85.7W 1004 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 29.3N 86.0W 1003 35
1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 29.4N 87.1W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 29.2N 88.2W 1004 40
1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.0N 90.7W 1002 48
0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.1N 93.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

 TD2 advisories to be initiated at 11AM.

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's on course to become a truly monstrous historic event. Its impacts will be far-reaching and probably very severe. 

The latest CFSv2 run’s mean is at new highs for peak:

Monthly relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.6 (Nov), which is way above current record (back to 1950) warmest of +2.69 (Jan ‘83) :

3 month relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.35  (SON and OND), which is way above the record back to 1950 of +2.52 (NDJ 1982-3)

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (formerly AL91) located over the Gulf of America, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC)

Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod. TIA

I just started a thread on Invest 91L/potential Bertha:

Invest 91L will be investigated by recon today. NHC chances in TWO now very high:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of 
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower 
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued 
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly 
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast 
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor 
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings 
could be required for portions of the area later today. In 
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions 
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

——————

-Last 5 full (0Z/12Z) UKMET runs, the most consistently enthusiastic of the globals, have had a TS from this moving toward W GOM/LA/TX.

-Icon also has been hinting at this for several days with some runs having a TC

-0Z Euro was first run with a TC with it near borderline TS S of W FL panhandle

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of 
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower 
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued 
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly 
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast 
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor 
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings 
could be required for portions of the area later today. In 
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions 
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 The 0Z Euro is the 1st one that I can recall with TCG of 91L. It even gets to borderline TS status S of the W FL panhandle Tue night.

0Z UKMET: 5th run in a row of having a TD (TCG tomorrow) as well as a TS (upgraded Mon night) but doesn’t get as strong as prior 2 runs; mainly WNW movement to SE LA Wed night

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 27.4N 85.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 12 27.4N 85.2W 1011 23
0000UTC 20.07.2026 24 28.0N 85.1W 1008 25
1200UTC 20.07.2026 36 27.7N 85.5W 1007 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.6N 86.1W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.07.2026 72 28.9N 86.6W 1004 38
1200UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.7N 88.3W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.9N 89.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.4N 90.7W 1009 35
0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

 There still hasn’t been so far this summer a 100 F high at either Columbia or Augusta. Considering how hot this summer has been and with them often being two of the hottest for highs, that’s kind of surprising even though they’ve been plenty hot with 11-12 days in the upper 90s.

45 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

The CFS has been hinting at this possibility based on its very sharp record-paced cooling of 3.4 from Dec to Mar.

By the way, the 12Z UKMET was the 4th full run (full runs are at 0Z/12Z) that developed this into a mainly W moving full fledged TS. The last 2 runs developed it into a TD by early tomorrow morning! Landfall near LA/TX border:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.1N  84.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 19.07.2026   24  27.5N  84.9W     1010            25

    0000UTC 20.07.2026   36  28.1N  85.2W     1006            28

    1200UTC 20.07.2026   48  28.2N  86.0W     1004            30

    0000UTC 21.07.2026   60  28.1N  86.1W     1002            33

    1200UTC 21.07.2026   72  28.4N  86.1W     1000            38

    0000UTC 22.07.2026   84  29.2N  86.2W      997            50

    1200UTC 22.07.2026   96  29.6N  86.9W      998            51

    0000UTC 23.07.2026  108  29.3N  87.8W      996            52

    1200UTC 23.07.2026  120  28.9N  88.8W      999            44

    0000UTC 24.07.2026  132  28.7N  90.0W      999            40

    1200UTC 24.07.2026  144  29.0N  92.0W     1001            36

    0000UTC 25.07.2026  156  29.3N  94.2W     1004            37

    1200UTC 25.07.2026  168              CEASED TRACKING

Invest 91-L now

1. The RRFS, which will replace NAM, has been developing this into a TS.

2. 0Z UKMET moves up TCG to 8PM Saturday and is stronger (winds almost to H strength Tue AM, which is high for the typically conservatively low UK) as it moves mainly slowly W to the NW GOM:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.1N 83.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.1N 83.8W 1011 27
1200UTC 19.07.2026 36 27.6N 84.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.9N 85.1W 1002 33
0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.0N 85.4W 999 37
1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.9N 85.5W 997 46
0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.1N 85.4W 993 56
1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 29.6N 85.4W 995 59
0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 29.2N 86.1W 996 53
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 28.6N 87.2W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 28.0N 88.6W 998 41
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 27.6N 89.9W 999 39
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 29.0N 91.4W 1002 35

Will CAE finally reach 100? They’ve already reached 99.

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not the worst look on visible, but for TC genesis it's going to need to be able to fire more persistent convection. 

12Z UKMET has moved TCG back up to Sunday (AM) and in E GOM. Becomes TS Mon night. It initially moves WNW followed by slowly SW/SSW after hr 144 into N Central GOM, similar to 0Z run (slow movement throughout):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 26.9N 84.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 27.4N 85.1W 1012 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.8N 85.7W 1009 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 28.2N 86.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.1N 87.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 27.9N 87.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 28.6N 87.6W 1000 43
1200UTC 22.07.2026 120 29.3N 88.2W 1003 44
0000UTC 23.07.2026 132 29.5N 88.6W 1004 35
1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 29.2N 89.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 28.4N 89.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.7N 89.7W 1002 40

The CFS AAM at this site FINALLY updated for the 1st time in 2 weeks!

Prior run from July 3rd:

 New one from today: +2 now but progged on 7/25 to drop to +1 vs the ~+2.2 mean on old run; progged mean doesn’t rise back to +2 til Aug 4th. Old run mean for Aug 4th was way up >+3. All of this is added evidence of a significant + bias out >2 weeks. Regardless, +AAM in full control, which is continued evidence of an intact steadily strengthening Nino:

On 7/14/2026 at 4:26 PM, GaWx said:

 There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged.

 This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.

Sure enough, Darwin on July 16th exceeded 1018 mb for only the 2nd day since daily records started in 1991, a sign of El Niño. It reached 1018.25, which trailed only the 1018.35 of 21 years ago!

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today. 

 The UKMET (0Z), after having dropped this from TCG, brought back TCG. Also, unlike the 2 Wednesday runs that had it form on Sun in NE Gulf followed by a NE move across FL, this run delays development til Tue and then moves it slowly WSW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32
1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33
0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39
1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48

CFSv2 latest 10 day mean of JFM 2m anomalies is beautiful fwiw:

Same for precip:

 Whereas this looks great and I’d love for it to verify closely, it’s important to keep in mind the following for the NE US regarding 15 years of mid-July CFSv2 JFM prog verifications (2012-26):

-Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12

-Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13

 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) were too cold…so not a strong cold bias and thus there’s still a reasonable level of hope that it could verify well.

——————————
 The cold bias in the SE is even stronger:

-Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12

-Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13

—————————

 Interestingly, this cold JFM 2027 CFSv2 forecast isn’t a whole lot colder than the following one also made in mid-July for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):

 This is what verified: so, CFSv2 was close in NE but too cold in the S 1/2 of US: