GaWx

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

ACE as of 12Z today is at 93.8. A 100+ is still not yet near a guarantee although it remains very highly likely.

The “dynamic duo” of TS Jerry and the surprise, STS Karen, has added only 1.44 ACE the last 24 hours. Needless to say, they’ll both be back on the list in 2031.
 

 The season to date has climbed to only 95.24 with no large amount of ACE yet in site. I’m thinking just under 100 once these 2 storms are history. 

From KCHS: the highest tide of the series is still progged to be today’s late morning tide 

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  

STRONG NE WINDS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND DEVELOPING  
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE  
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ASTRONOMICAL TIDE VALUES  
ARE ALREADY ELEVATED OWING TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND PERIGEE,  
WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN COASTAL  
FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND.  

CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HIT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING  
THRESHOLDS (>8 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR  
CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH  
TIDE CYCLE WHEN LEVELS COULD PEAK IN THE 8.3-8.5 FT MLLW RANGE. A  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY.  
FLOODING CAN OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE TIDE PEAKS.  
IT'S WORTH NOTING CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN REACHING MAJOR  
ON SATURDAY AS PURE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES START TO COME DOWN. WHILE  
THE MORNING TIDES ARE DOMINANT, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES. THE THREAT FOR COASTAL  
FLOODING SHOULD DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR TODAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MODERATE COASTAL  
FLOODING (10 TO 10.5 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN  
PLACE FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHEN LEVELS COULD  
PEAK IN THE 10.2 TO 10.4 FT MLLW RANGE. ADDITIONAL COASTAL  
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH THE SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE, THEN THE  
THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DECREASE.

 Karen’s genesis at ~44.4N is the furthest N on record for any TS or STS, beating the old record of 42N from 1952 by a notable amount! Karen had to make a statement!

AL, 11, 2025101000, , BEST, 0, 444N, 334W, 40, 998, SS, 34, NEQ, 20, 50, 50, 30, 1012, 190, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, TRANSITIONED, alB62025 to al112025,

 Folks,
 As weird as this season has been, it may get weirder!
A look just now at historical genesis locations on record tells me that Invest 96L, already way up near 44.5N, could easily become the furthest N genesis for either a TC or STC as the furthest N on record is 42N (unnamed storm in 1952)! And it figures this would be named Karen, which would almost certainly mean that she’d be back in 2031, part of the Karen plan to bother us again :

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Five
 

 Edit: here we go! Like her or not, Karen, who complained to forecaster Papin about not being heard, looks to be coming, folks, with her chances up to 60%/60%!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. North Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization 
with a small gale-force area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles to the northwest of the Azores. Only a small increase in 
organization could result in the formation of a subtropical 
or tropical storm as soon as tonight, as the system moves slowly 
northwestward. Over the weekend, the system is expected to move 
over cooler waters, ending its chances of further development. For 
more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo 
France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Papin

She’s demanding her own thread, now!

@NorthHillsWx

 It’s almost certainly going to get named (whether subtropical or tropical) imho based on this special TWO and Papin being in the house! 8PM TWO will likely rise substantially from this:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special outlook issued to update information about the gale-force 
low located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. North Atlantic (AL96):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized 
today in association with a gale-force area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles to the northwest of the Azores. If these 
development trends continue, a subtropical or tropical storm could 
form as soon as tonight while the system moves slowly northwestward. 
Over the weekend, the system is expected to move over even cooler 
waters, ending its chances of further development. For more 
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw.txt


Forecaster Papin/Roberts

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

How is 96L not named???

It looks really well organized but it is apparently over like only 21C waters. So, is it still nontropical? If it has become subtropical, it needs to be named imho.

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
 
Satellite images, aircraft observations, and ASCAT data indicate
that Jerry is a poorly organized and strongly sheared tropical
storm.  The low-level center is now fully exposed and elongated,
with the main area of deep convection located on the system's south
and southeast sides.  The initial intensity is again held at 55 kt,
but that could be a little generous.  The center of Jerry is less
than 100 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, which is often
close enough to experience strong winds.  However, the ASCAT and
aircraft data showed that the strongest winds are confined to a
region east of the center.  In fact, winds are quite light on the
west side.
 
Jerry has been moving erratically today, but smoothing through the 
fixes suggest that the storm is gradually turning to the right.  The 
initial motion is now estimated to be 300/16 kt.  This general 
motion should continue through early Friday, taking the center of 
the system near or over the northern Leeward Islands during that 
time.  However, as mentioned above, the strongest winds should pass 
to the east of the islands due to Jerry's asymmetric structure.  A 
turn to the north is expected to occur by late tomorrow, and that 
motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm 
moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge.  Early 
next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is 
forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies.  Jerry is expected to pass 
east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward 
asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there.  No 
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and 
this prediction is in best agreement with the HCCA and Google 
DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Strengthening in the short term seems unlikely given Jerry's poor 
initial structure.  However, after the storm passes the northern 
Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear could decrease some while 
Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore, 
slow strengthening is predicted from late Friday through Sunday. The 
opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next week when 
the system moves into stronger shear and over cooler waters.  The 
NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward due to a combination 
of the storm's poor initial structure and latest guidance.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, 
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through 
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban 
areas and in steep terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 17.3N  60.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 18.6N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 21.0N  63.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 23.7N  63.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 26.5N  63.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 28.4N  62.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 30.7N  61.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 32.3N  57.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 32.2N  51.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Edit: A little good news is that Ft. Pulaski cane in slightly lower than predicted with it at 9.84’ vs 10.0-10.1’ prediction although tomorrow morning’s is still predicted to be the highest:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
THU OCT 09 2025
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0930 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    2 ENE SULLIVANS ISLAND  32.77N  79.81W  
10/09/2025                   CHARLESTON         SC   BROADCAST MEDIA   
  
            REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. VIDEO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT   
            BEACH EROSION FROM COASTAL FLOODING AS ADDITIONAL WAVES   
            WASH ASHORE AT THOMSON PARK IN THE BREACH INLET.


0957 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    1 S TYBEE ISLAND        31.99N  80.85W  
10/09/2025                   CHATHAM            GA   LOCAL OFFICIAL    
  
            CITY OF TYBEE ISLAND REPORTS THEY HAD TO CLOSE THE 19TH   
            STREET BEACH CROSSOVER DUE TO EROSION AND SCARPING FROM   
            COASTAL FLOODING, MAKING IT UNSAFE FOR PUBLIC ACCESS.


1012 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W  
10/09/2025 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL  

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.91 FT MLLW (2.14 FT MHHW) WAS  
OBSERVED AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. MODERATE  
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE TYPICALLY OBSERVED ALONG  
COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES WHEN TIDE  
LEVELS REACH 7.5 FT MLLW (1.73 FT MHHW) IN THE  
CHARLESTON HARBOR.  

1036 AM COASTAL FLOOD 4 NW TYBEE ISLAND 32.03N 80.93W  
10/09/2025 CHATHAM GA OTHER FEDERAL  

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 9.84 FT MLLW (2.33 FT MHHW) WAS  
OBSERVED AT THE FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE. MINOR COASTAL  
FLOODING IMPACTS ARE TYPICALLY OBSERVED ALONG SOUTHERN  
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN  
COASTAL GEORGIA COMMUNITIES WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 9.5  
FT MLLW (2.0 FT MHHW) AT FORT PULASKI.

—————

Edit: 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
854 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025  

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

..REMARKS..  

1100 AM COASTAL FLOOD 3 SSW SAINT SIMONS 31.13N 81.40W  
10/09/2025 AMZ450 GA MESONET  

THE TIDE GAUGE AT ATLANTIC COAST AT ST.  
SIMONS ISLAND AT VILLAGE PIER MEASURED 2.51  
FT MHHW AT HIGH TIDE AT 11 AM. MODERATE  
FLOOD STAGE BEGINS AT 2.5 FT MHHW.

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

ACE as of 12Z today is at 93.8. A 100+ is still not yet near a guarantee although it remains very highly likely.

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Hmmm, recon shows Jerry’s circulation might be opening up

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
 
The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating 
Jerry this morning, and the radar and flight-level wind data show 
that the storm remains lopsided with nearly all of the strong winds 
and convection on the system's east side.  The center itself has 
been difficult to fix, but the data generally support a position 
that is located south-southeast of the previous track.  The initial 
intensity is held at 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft 
data and satellite estimates.

The cold/wedge front came through here since sunrise bringing in the start of a surge of higher NE winds and a drop of dewpoints from ~70 to ~60. The area’s high tides for this morning will peak at ~10AM-11AM which are likely being pushed higher than yesterday due to the higher NE winds. This is likely now resulting in minor coastal flooding starting in low areas like Highway 80 on the way to Tybee, which could last til ~noon. 

Charleston is now experiencing the start of moderate to possibly borderline major coastal flooding, which could last til ~noon. There have already been reports of flooding there:

0912 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 N CHARLESTON 32.80N 79.94W  
10/09/2025 CHARLESTON SC EMERGENCY MNGR 

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO COASTAL  
FLOODING AT THE INTERSECTION OF AMERICA ST AND COOPER  
ST.  

0921 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 ESE CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W  
10/09/2025 CHARLESTON SC EMERGENCY MNGR 

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO COASTAL  
FLOODING ON S MARKET ST BETWEEN CHURCH ST AND STATE ST.
—————————————

Late tomorrow morning’s high tides are still projected to be the worst of this event.

A 10.4 ft high tide is being forecasted for Ft. Pulaski for late Friday morning:

 That would be tied for the 7th highest tide on record at Ft. Pulaski going back ~90 years, tied with the 8/11/1940 hurricane. It would be only barely lower than the highest tide on record there not associated with a TC, which is the 10.45’ of 11/7/2021!

  The following is from this morning’s updated KCHS discussion:

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
  
STRONG NE WINDS RESULTING FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND   
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO   
INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ASTRONOMICAL   
TIDE VALUES ARE ALREADY ELEVATED OWING TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND   
PERIGEE, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN   
COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE   
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING, THE POSITION OF   
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL HIGHLY INFLUENCE THE TIDAL   
DEPARTURE.  
  
CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY   
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HIT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING   
(>8 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON   
AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COASTAL   
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY THROUGH   
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.   
  
FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH   
SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING (10   
TO 10.5 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM   
BEAUFORT COUNTY, SC SOUTHWARD TO MCINTOSH COUNTY, GA FROM 8 AM THIS   
MORNING UNTIL NOON TODAY. 

A 10.4 ft high tide is being forecasted for Ft. Pulaski for late Friday morning:

 That would be tied for the 7th highest tide on record there going back ~90 years, tied with the 8/11/1940 hurricane. It would be only barely lower than the highest tide on record there not associated with a TC, which is the 10.45’ of 11/7/2021!
 

 This is the longest coastal flooding discussion I can ever recall being released by KCHS:

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON  
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY AS THEIR IMPACTS ARE  
TIED TO THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
OUR SOUTHEAST COAST PLEASE SEE THE NEXT DISCUSSION. MAJOR  
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS KING TIDES  
CONTINUE, WITH ASTRO TIDES OF 7.06 FT MLLW, WHICH BY ITSELF IS  
ALREADY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 FOOT ARE  
EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING THE TIDE FORECAST OVER 8 FEET MLLW,  
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AT 8.1 FT MLLW. AT THESE LEVELS,  
WIDESPREAD AND HIGHLY IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING OCCURS IN  
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE  
AND WATER ENTERING SOME STRUCTURES. IMPACTS ALSO INCLUDE EROSION  
AT AREA BEACHES, WITH LIMITED TO NO ACCESS TO DOCKS, PIERS, AND  
SOME ISLANDS. MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR  
RESULTS IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY.  

WHILE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY  
EVENING AS DEPARTURES RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR LATE  
FRIDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE AS STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE  
AND ASTRO TIDE FALLING TO JUST BELOW 7 FT MLLW, WHICH MAY AGAIN  
RESULT IN MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST TIDE  
IS EXPECTED AS DEPARTURES RISE TO NEAR 1.5 FT, WHICH SHOULD  
BRING THE TIDE GAGE UP TO NEAR 8.5 FT MLLW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS  
HIGH IN MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BEING REACHED, MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN  
WIND DIRECTION AND WIND SPEED AROUND HIGH TIDE WILL ULTIMATELY  
DETERMINE JUST HOW HIGH ABOVE 8 FEET WE GO, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS  
RESULTING IN HIGHER READINGS ABOVE 8.5 FT MLLW AND MORE  
NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING US CLOSER TO 8.0 FT MLLW. IF WE WERE TO  
REACH 8.5 FT MLLW, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN  
TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING THE ASTRO TIDE  
DROPS TO 5.6 FT MLLW RESULTING MINOR/MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING  
EXPECTED, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE  
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS ASTRO TIDE  
PEAKS NEAR 6.72 FT MLLW, THOUGH WE'LL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL  
DEPARTURES END UP TRENDING AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR  
SOUTH. DUE TO THE RISK OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, A COASTAL  
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON  
COUNTIES, VALID FROM 8 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 3 PM FRIDAY.

AT FORT PULASKI, WHICH IMPACTS AREAS FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY IN  
SOUTH CAROLINA DOWN TO MCINTOSH COUNTY IN GEORGIA, LATE THURSDAY  
MORNING'S ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 9.1 FT MLLW COMBINED WITH TIDAL  
DEPARTURES OF JUST UNDER A FOOT WILL BRING THE AREA RIGHT TO  
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CRESTING AT 10  
FT MLLW (MODERATE FLOOD STAGE). AT THESE LEVELS, HIGHWAY-80  
CONNECTING TO TYBEE ISLAND STARTS TO SEE WATER ON IT AND  
NUMEROUS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE SUCH AS SHIPYARD ROAD,  
ISOLATING RESIDENTS ON BURNSIDE ISLAND.FLOODING WILL ALSO  
IMPACT AREAS ON TYBEE ISLAND, WILMINGTON ISLAND, THE COFFEE  
BLUFF COMMUNITY, OSSABAW ISLAND, SAPELO ISLAND, PORTIONS OF  
HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH OF DARIEN. IN BRYAN COUNTY, WATER COULD BREACH  
DOCKS NEAR FT MCALLISTER AND FLOODING IMPACTING PORTIONS OF MILL  
HILL ROAD. IN LIBERTY COUNTY, FLOODING IMPACTS THE HALFMOON  
LANDING AREA AND CATTLE HAMMOCK ROAD NEAR BERMUDA BLUFF  
SUBDIVISION.  

WE WILL LIKELY SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THURSDAY EVENING  
AS ASTRO TIDE PEAKS AT 7.74 FT MLLW, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES  
RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOSE TO 2 FT. SIMILAR TO CHARLESTON,  
THE TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN OCCURS LATE FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE  
ASTRO TIDE IS AT 8.91 FT MLLW AND WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG  
GRADIENT WINDS ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES IS EXPECTED. CURRENT  
FORECAST PEAKS AT 10.4 FT MLLW, BUT AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE  
EXACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS GOING TO PLAY A BIG ROLE IN  
HOW HIGH ABOVE 10 FT MLLW THE TIDE GAGE WILL GO. IF THE WIND  
DIRECTION WERE TO SHIFT CLOSER TO NORTHERLY, TIDAL READINGS  
CLOSER TO 10 FT MLLW WOULD BE EXPECTED, WHEREAS NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED RESULTING IN THE FORECAST OF 10.4  
FT MLLW. AS THE TIDAL READINGS APPROACH 10.5 FT MLLW, COASTAL  
FLOODING IMPACTS EXPAND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA  
COAST. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM COASTAL FLOODING LATE FRIDAY  
EVENING AS THE ASTRO TIDES FALLS TO 7.41 FT MLLW, THOUGH THERE  
IS A RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.  
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL  
DEPARTURES TREND AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH.

 If it holds together, a band of light to moderate rain with embedded heavy showers will arrive here in about an hour and last ~an hour.

Edit: it dried up before it got to this area.

47 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

this sentence is a lie, a lie which is exposed in the very next sentence (if anyone read it)

The law DOES NOT REQUIRE homeowners to paint their roof white, it requires that new and replacement roofs, in order to be permitted  by the municipality, be constructed to meet an updated building code requirement

just another example of how the right misuses words and language to confuse people and get them to believe something that isn't true

 

 

Your point is a good one but it isn’t due to what you think. The source, “The Cool Down” is not only not right biased, it is actually left of center:

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-cool-down-bias-and-credibility/

 The problem with the article isn’t due to bias but rather is due to the headline being poorly written (not necessarily a lie…just very sloppy journalism).

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently.

 

 There’s been no correlation of -NAO in October and DJF at least since 2009:

 Since then 2009, 2012-4, 2019, 2021, and 2023 all had a strong (<-1) NAO in Oct. Of these, only 2009 had a -NAO for the subsequent winter. Octs have had a -NAO leaning since 2009 while winters have leaned +NAO. Actually, since 1980, there have been only 6 sub -0.25 DJF NAOs, all within ~2 years of a solar minimum.

 And despite the -NAO leaning of Oct, check out the sharp change overall to a +NAO leaning in Nov since 2009! Something seems to change pretty drastically between Oct and Nov related to the NAO (at least since 2009). And then the winters have been mainly +NAO as I already said. Do you or does anyone else know what has driven this?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

City sparks debate after passing new law requiring all homeowners to paint roofs same color

The Grist reports that Atlanta has recently passed legislation that requires all new roofs to be more reflective. The changes won't be immediate; existing roofs don't have to be painted white just yet, but new buildings and replacement roofs are subject to the new law. The new roofs could cool the entire city by an average of 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit and as much as 6.3 degrees in the hottest neighborhoods.

Another notable feature of the cool roof ordinance is the estimated $315 million in energy bill savings the city will realize over the next 35 years. The new roofs won't cost any more than traditional ones and may actually be cheaper, and they'll last longer because the roof won't suffer the same wear and tear under the heat.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/city-sparks-debate-passing-law-023000537.html

White roofs would cool Atlanta by 2.4F? Really? Opinions?

Also, how long would they stay white?

Before this morning, I was at 1.10” MTD. Getting a heavy shower the last few minutes.

Edit 8:35PM on 10/8: After that heavy morning shower and some light followup rain at times the rest of the day (10/7), I ended up with ~0.9. That got me to 2” MTD, which is already near double my Sept. total!

 No rain fell through the daylight hours of 10/8.

53 minutes ago, FPizz said:

The obsession with him in this thread is unhealthy

 It’s important to call him out due to the assumed large # of subscribers to WxBell and he being one of the, if not the, most well-known internet based pro-mets since the start of the internet age. I don’t think it’s obsession and thus don’t see it being unhealthy. A large majority of posts ITT aren’t about JB.

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

There's no way this isnt.a tropical depression already

Per a well-known Houston tropical pro-met who often downplays, this was said 45 minutes ago:

Scatterometer hit (finally) at 0930Z indicated a closed circulation and some 35kt wind. Likely already a TS. Should recurve east of the islands.

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Thanks Chuck! Wow, that looks just like the 13, 14, 17, 19, and 24 composite!

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^You can do actual AAO correlations over the whole dataset, of 73 years, both signs included. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/

Lead time (months): Let the index lead, Lag time (months): Let the pattern precede an AAO phase. 

Just going with January following a Sept AAO, this looks pretty "random"

Thanks, Chuck. Do you have the S Hemispheric map of how Sept of 2025 looked at 10 mb anomalywise? JB didn’t post it.

 In today’s version of JB’s “I want to keep my subscribers”, JB said this:

Southern Hemisphere Sept Cold Strat link to winter

On 10/5/2025 at 2:20 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s by far the worst spot too given the OHC and reduction in shear. There’s too much shear for the lemon areas in the Gulf right now, but the tropical Atlantic wave is likely to develop given how convectively active it continues to be and the CAG could very well produce 1-2 TCs (more likely 1 imo). 
 

 Today the Euro ens/weeklies don’t have as much activity in the W Caribbean for midmonth as they had two days ago when I posted how much more active than climo it was.

0Z 10/4 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: note how busy it was in W Car

12Z 10/6 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: not as active in W Car

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave How is your MJO signal shaping up so far this month? It looks like the MJO is finally going to propagate eastward out of the IO to the Maritime Continent (phases 5-6) at the end of this month, not very strong amplitude however….

 Related to this, it does look like that starting ~10/8 that the unprecedented during 2nd half of year (back to 1974 ) ~5 1/2 week long clockwise domination of the track will finally end.