GaWx
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NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (formerly AL91) located over the Gulf of America, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod. TIA
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I just started a thread on Invest 91L/potential Bertha:
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Invest 91L will be investigated by recon today. NHC chances in TWO now very high:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. In
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi——————
-Last 5 full (0Z/12Z) UKMET runs, the most consistently enthusiastic of the globals, have had a TS from this moving toward W GOM/LA/TX.
-Icon also has been hinting at this for several days with some runs having a TC
-0Z Euro was first run with a TC with it near borderline TS S of W FL panhandle
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. In
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi -
The 0Z Euro is the 1st one that I can recall with TCG of 91L. It even gets to borderline TS status S of the W FL panhandle Tue night.
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0Z UKMET: 5th run in a row of having a TD (TCG tomorrow) as well as a TS (upgraded Mon night) but doesn’t get as strong as prior 2 runs; mainly WNW movement to SE LA Wed night
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 27.4N 85.2W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 12 27.4N 85.2W 1011 23
0000UTC 20.07.2026 24 28.0N 85.1W 1008 25
1200UTC 20.07.2026 36 27.7N 85.5W 1007 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.6N 86.1W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.07.2026 72 28.9N 86.6W 1004 38
1200UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.7N 88.3W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.9N 89.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.4N 90.7W 1009 35
0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING -
There still hasn’t been so far this summer a 100 F high at either Columbia or Augusta. Considering how hot this summer has been and with them often being two of the hottest for highs, that’s kind of surprising even though they’ve been plenty hot with 11-12 days in the upper 90s.
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45 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:
The CFS has been hinting at this possibility based on its very sharp record-paced cooling of 3.4 from Dec to Mar.
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By the way, the 12Z UKMET was the 4th full run (full runs are at 0Z/12Z) that developed this into a mainly W moving full fledged TS. The last 2 runs developed it into a TD by early tomorrow morning! Landfall near LA/TX border:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.1N 84.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.5N 84.9W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 36 28.1N 85.2W 1006 28
1200UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.2N 86.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.1N 86.1W 1002 33
1200UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.4N 86.1W 1000 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.2N 86.2W 997 50
1200UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.6N 86.9W 998 51
0000UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.3N 87.8W 996 52
1200UTC 23.07.2026 120 28.9N 88.8W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 132 28.7N 90.0W 999 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 144 29.0N 92.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 25.07.2026 156 29.3N 94.2W 1004 37
1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING
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Invest 91-L now
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1. The RRFS, which will replace NAM, has been developing this into a TS.
2. 0Z UKMET moves up TCG to 8PM Saturday and is stronger (winds almost to H strength Tue AM, which is high for the typically conservatively low UK) as it moves mainly slowly W to the NW GOM:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.1N 83.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.1N 83.8W 1011 27
1200UTC 19.07.2026 36 27.6N 84.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.9N 85.1W 1002 33
0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.0N 85.4W 999 37
1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.9N 85.5W 997 46
0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.1N 85.4W 993 56
1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 29.6N 85.4W 995 59
0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 29.2N 86.1W 996 53
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 28.6N 87.2W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 28.0N 88.6W 998 41
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 27.6N 89.9W 999 39
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 29.0N 91.4W 1002 35-
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Will CAE finally reach 100? They’ve already reached 99.
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34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Not the worst look on visible, but for TC genesis it's going to need to be able to fire more persistent convection.
12Z UKMET has moved TCG back up to Sunday (AM) and in E GOM. Becomes TS Mon night. It initially moves WNW followed by slowly SW/SSW after hr 144 into N Central GOM, similar to 0Z run (slow movement throughout):
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 26.9N 84.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 27.4N 85.1W 1012 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.8N 85.7W 1009 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 28.2N 86.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.1N 87.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 27.9N 87.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 28.6N 87.6W 1000 43
1200UTC 22.07.2026 120 29.3N 88.2W 1003 44
0000UTC 23.07.2026 132 29.5N 88.6W 1004 35
1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 29.2N 89.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 28.4N 89.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.7N 89.7W 1002 40 -
The CFS AAM at this site FINALLY updated for the 1st time in 2 weeks!
Prior run from July 3rd:
New one from today: +2 now but progged on 7/25 to drop to +1 vs the ~+2.2 mean on old run; progged mean doesn’t rise back to +2 til Aug 4th. Old run mean for Aug 4th was way up >+3. All of this is added evidence of a significant + bias out >2 weeks. Regardless, +AAM in full control, which is continued evidence of an intact steadily strengthening Nino:
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On 7/14/2026 at 4:26 PM, GaWx said:
There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged.
This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.
Sure enough, Darwin on July 16th exceeded 1018 mb for only the 2nd day since daily records started in 1991, a sign of El Niño. It reached 1018.25, which trailed only the 1018.35 of 21 years ago!
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9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today.
The UKMET (0Z), after having dropped this from TCG, brought back TCG. Also, unlike the 2 Wednesday runs that had it form on Sun in NE Gulf followed by a NE move across FL, this run delays development til Tue and then moves it slowly WSW:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32
1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33
0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39
1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48 -
CFSv2 latest 10 day mean of JFM 2m anomalies is beautiful fwiw:
Same for precip:
Whereas this looks great and I’d love for it to verify closely, it’s important to keep in mind the following for the NE US regarding 15 years of mid-July CFSv2 JFM prog verifications (2012-26):-Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12
-Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14
-Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13
Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) were too cold…so not a strong cold bias and thus there’s still a reasonable level of hope that it could verify well.
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The cold bias in the SE is even stronger:-Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12
-Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14
-Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13
—————————
Interestingly, this cold JFM 2027 CFSv2 forecast isn’t a whole lot colder than the following one also made in mid-July for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):
This is what verified: so, CFSv2 was close in NE but too cold in the S 1/2 of US:
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11 minutes ago, roardog said:
How is it looking? You’re pretty good at guessing what the SOI will be in the coming days. Will we break the record?
We’ll likely exceed 1997’s 72 days, which would put it as 2nd longest on record (back to 1991). But #1 (from 1998) is way up at 100 days. I have no idea if it will get that high. With that still being 33 days away, it would be quite awhile before I could even try to forecast whether or not it will be reached. Since that would be quite the accomplishment, I feel chances are well under 50% as of now. Let’s see how things go.
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At just before 8PM, I started getting mainly light to occasionally moderate rain. The relevant convection had developed nearby as a result of an E moving outflow boundary colliding with the seabreeze front. But what had been a heavy thunderstorm weakened by the time it started here. So, whereas this is measurable, it still isn’t much.
Edit: I got only ~0.04”.
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On 7/10/2026 at 11:18 AM, GaWx said:
Thanks, Adam. So, Long Paddock after ~a week finally came back to updating its daily SOIs. This is what I earlier posted about this:
In doing so, it also retroactively changed some dailies prior to July 3rd. What’s most interesting is that those changes changed what had been 2 small positives to negatives: June 18th/19th changed from +4/+1 to -4/-4. Based on the original June 18th release of +4, a 37 day -SOI streak had apparently ended June 18th. However, with these changes, it didn’t and thus we’re in a very long -SOI streak that’s now at a whopping 62 days and is still going strong!How does this compare to the longest back to 1991?
-100 days in 1998
-72 days in 1997
-66 days in 2015
-65 days in 2023
-62 days and counting 2026
Today, we made it to 67 straight -SOI days, which puts the current streak in 3rd place back to 1991! So, this one is behind only two from the 1997-8 Nino. Reaching and possibly exceeding 2nd place ‘97’s 72 days is likely as of now. How long will it go?
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17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Yeah not sure there’s going to be enough time for TC genesis, but nothing set in stone yet.
After 2 runs forming a TS from this, the last 2 runs dropped that and instead both develop something well out in the Atlantic subtropics:
0Z 7/16/26 UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 27.9N 63.9W 1014 29
0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 30.6N 66.2W 1013 31
——————————
12Z 7/16/26 UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 29.1N 63.9W 1014 30
1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 32.3N 65.2W 1014 31-
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My area has had some thunderstorms pop-up with light rain starting ~2PM. This may not amount to too much.
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The latest daily OISST anomaly update for 3.4 had a warming of a whopping 0.13C, which is the largest rise since June 4th. This is the kind of move that will probably be needed from time to time to get August averaged out up to the mid +2s:
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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east
Believable but will it actually happen? Nobody knows. Largest month to month warming on record is 0.85 (Jan ‘56). The largest warming on record in Aug is 0.61 (1988). Actually, the largest on record of any month July-Oct is only that 0.61.
Here are the largest on record:0.85 Jan 1956
0.84 June 1968
0.78 Mar 1951
0.73 Feb 1976
0.71 May 2026
0.68 Nov 2009
0.68 Mar 2000
0.66 May 1967
0.61 Aug 1988
0.61 Jan 1975
0.60 Oct 1991
0.60 Jan 1953
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt
2026-2027 Super El Nino
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
The latest CFSv2 run’s mean is at new highs for peak:
Monthly relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.6 (Nov), which is way above current record (back to 1950) warmest of +2.69 (Jan ‘83) :
3 month relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.35 (SON and OND), which is way above the record back to 1950 of +2.52 (NDJ 1982-3)