GaWx

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are colder than yesterday’s in the E US and are I think the coldest yet for the bulk of Feb. All of weeks 3-6 cooled thanks largely to a higher PNA and a lower AO/NAO. It is no longer looking mild!

 Look at how much the PNA has risen over the last week, especially for 1/27-2/10:

1/10 run:

Today’s run:

This has resulted in much better H5:

Yesterday’s run:

Today’s run: this is a cold look

8 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Ya'll, Larry, Metal and the friends I have in the area are the exact reasons this is pinned, and I am hoping for the absolute best outcome for everyone down there

5 hours ago, NGTim said:

No doubt.  If anyone deserves a storm or at least some flakes to get out and walk in, its Larry with all the work he puts into other people's storms.  Also sending hope to everyone else down there.  Growing up in Middle GA was brutal when it seemed like every snow map on WMAZ showed snow ATL and above.   (except for '73 of course ahem)

 Thanks, Michelle and Tim. Unfortunately but not surprisingly, those many runs of especially the King suite ended up just being imaginary for this and other parts of SE GA. The typical NW correction was delayed on that model, but reality finally took over, which is consistent with the very tough SE GA climo. That also takes out Metal’s hometown of Waycross. We were never going to get snow. It’s just that the models, especially King, weren’t smart enough to tell us that too far in advance.

 I’m also pulling especially for the middle GA folks like Shack that rarely get any. I’m hoping that it will stick not too far west of here (say, Metter to Vidalia area), which would mean a worthwhile 1-1.5 hour Sunday afternoon drive to see it on the ground. But with so much NW trend, I’m thinking the closest sticking may be further west. We’ll see!

 Good luck, all!

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really….

 I agree that whoever these folks are who touted this very strong WWB should admit their mistake so they can move on beyond it. Are the models that bad?

 Does this mean that 2016-7, which had a very strong WWB, is less of an analog? @donsutherland1

The old record long MJO phase 6 for DJF of 13 days (was during La Niña of 1998-9) will be beaten per model progs. Records go back to 1975. It started on Jan 5th and will likely end on Jan 20th or 21st meaning a 16-17 day long phase 6:
 

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

 The largest DJF 2 day drop of the EPO down into a -EPO was 367 (2/9-11/1996) followed by 364 (1/16-18/61). There’s a slight chance these are exceeded 1/14-16/26. We won’t know until Mon (reporting lag). If they aren’t exceeded, it would have a good chance to end up 3rd biggest drop (300+). The 1/14 EPO was +88. So, to get the record drop, the 1/16 would need to go <-279.

 This isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridge but rather it’s a measure of the fastest developing one.

Records go back to 1948.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don’t know. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s temporary. 

Do you think BAM will have more luck with the last week of Jan than they had with Dec 31-Jan 15?

 How did BAM do for 12/31-1/15? Here was their forecast map that was reposted in late Dec:

So, they had most of the E US 1-4 BN.

 What verified?

-The SE was 4-7 AN vs their forecast of 1-2 BN (~7 too cold).

-DC-NYC was +3 vs their fcast of -2. So, 5 too cold.

-Midwest was +5 to +8 vs their 0 to -4. So, 8 too cold.

-DFW/Den was +10/+11 vs their +3. So, 7 too cold.

-Even Great Falls, that they had +8, was actually +17. So, 9 too cold.

-They had Phoenix 3 too cold 

-They were closest for SF/LV, which they had at +2. They actually were +2/+3.

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Tonight's runs could be interesting after all

 All runs are interesting to me but 0Z and 12Z will have recon’s data as extra input.

3 minutes ago, NGTim said:

I need to move somewhere that gets more snow.  Currently looking at Beech Mountain, or Valdosta.

Valdosta, indeed, with 1.7”, is near the 2” max on the 12Z Euro, which had a significant uptick from ~0.5” the prior 3 runs (see below). If they were to get that, it might be the 2nd highest on record next to the 2.2” of last Jan:

Alan Huffman’s call:

Icon last 4 runs looking better for S GA to WC SC:

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM went from this

 

To this in one run.

Thanks, Brick. Even that’s probably overdone in much of the blue area (1”+) due to marginal temps. But that blue area on your 12Z map an hour or so to my west is my tentative target for a Sun PM drive.

 Very rare S GA snow: will it happen? This potential is exciting, but accumulations are probably overdone. I’ll be considering driving to it if it’s within a 1-1.5 hours drive out I-16 assuming the roads are not too affected, which is my guess due to marginal 2m temps. Right here, I’m hoping for a few flurries mixed in with the rain, but there could easily not be any snow mixing in as it doesn’t look quite cold enough right now though I’ll keep monitoring for model changes:

6Z 1/16 EPS:

6Z 1/16 GEFS:

6Z 1/16 Euro AI ens is more realistic imho with lower accums (<1”) but even that would be a rare event:

 18Z Euro would be a dream come true for some S GA snow lovers with a max of 1.2” at Douglas (see below). I’m not betting on that much accumulating there but we’ll see.

 How often has Douglas received 1.2”+? Not very at all as the ~120 year wx history shows only 5 times meaning a 1.2” snowfall there would be ~1 in 25 year occurrence. However, all five have been since 1973 meaning that would be a ~1 in 10 year occurrence over the last 52 years:

2/10/1973: 3.0”

12/22-23/1989: 3.3”

2/13/2010: 1.5”

1/3/2018: ~3”

1/21-2/2025: 4.5”

 Very interesting. Recon is going to be flown out tomorrow afternoon and late tomorrow night to collect extra data to be fed into models probably due to the large disagreement between the King and others: this would affect the 0Z and 12Z runs of 1/17:

36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Idk, the Brick storm last year lost 13 inches of snow that went to New Orleans after the thread was created 

 It was great luck for the Gulf coast, S GA, and the E Carolinas! I owe getting my record sleetstorm to Sir Brick.

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

OP was a tick towards the Euro at H5 but the GEFS continued to move NW. Will have to dive into the members more to see whether or not that’s just being skewed by some amplified outliers.

It doesn’t look to me like it was due to a skew from amped members. This was a typical notable shift NW in the avg track.

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Boom big increase from 12z

This is due to a significant shift NW of the GEFS mean from 12Z to 18Z. More shifts later are most likely as of current thinking.

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think we can wait until tomorrow to start a storm thread. Until last night there really wasn’t much consensus on there even being a storm would like it to remain on models for a full day before jumping into a thread personally. There isn’t really anything else going on besides in the mountain forum so nothing would be confused with this discussion at this time 

Thanks for your thoughts on this. For comparison, @eyewall started the 1/10-11/25 thread 4 days out and @Brick Tamlandstarted the 1/21-2/25 thread 3 days out. So, starting it tomorrow would match Brick’s timing for 1/21-2.

 Imho, it’s getting close to a good time for someone to start a 1/18/26 storm threat thread. Other opinions?

 12Z EPS mean looks very nice for many though of course many others won’t like as is almost always the case; regardless this shows there’s plenty of spread still:

12Z EPS members:

 The 12Z Euro was good for the E Carolinas and extra good from part of SE GA into the E FL panhandle. Of course I’d love for it to verify similarly in this area, but I’m still leaning to the 1/28-9/14 type of NW model trend like the 12Z GFS did due to similar indices to take most or all of it away. We’ll see as every case is somewhat unique:

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest GEFS forecast for the PNA has reinforced the idea of a PNA regime change to predominantly positive following the end of the recent 34-day PNA- regime. 

 If this were to verify with hardly any -PNA upcoming, that would increase the chance vs earlier runs that Jan will end up net +PNA just like all -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 have transitioned to in Jan.

17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Last night I was thinking the setup reminded me of January 28 2014. I’d happily take that. If it wants to go ahead and repeat February of 2014 as well I might just cry tears of joy lol

 I remember 1/28/14 originally per models out ~5 days looking to nail coastal areas like mine with a wintry mess and then doing the typical trending NW and reducing coastal area wintry precip. to a lot lower than models had had to a minor event here.

Comparisons of indices for 1/28-9/2014 to progged 1/18/26:

Index…2014….2026

MJO…...6……….….6
PNA….weak +….mod/strong +
EPO….strong -….very strong -
WPO…neutral……….-
NAO….weak +…neutral to weak +
AO…..strong -…..mod -

 So, for those of you who want the NW trend to continue and end up similarly to 2014 (not me obviously), the indices line up pretty similarly to 1/28-9/2014 unfortunately for us deep SE folks and fortunately for ATL-RDU and further NW. The main differences though this time are a stronger +PNA and -EPO (i.e., more impressive W NA ridge) and a -WPO vs neutral then. I don’t know whether or not that would change things much vs the 2014 trend.

 Now I’ll show how much stronger the W ridge/E trough couplet is this time vs 2014:

1/28/14 12Z H5 had 564 Washington/Canadian border and 559 Atlanta:

1/18/26 12Z H5 prog 576 Wash/Can border and 546 Atlanta meaning a much more impressive and sharper W ridge/E couplet this time:

0Z Euro is sticking with the coastal regions of SE for heaviest but extends to RDU:

0Z EPS mean has sig. increase: RDU near the max with 0.6”:

I count 18 with something in my area (largest I counted before was 13 on 12Z) and ~25 in RDU out of 50:

31 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

If I were in Raleigh up to Virginia Beach, I would be getting excited

Actually, with the typical NW trend, which is in reality an unwinding of too far SE biases, you’re very much in this one. I think due to this and backed by climo, you have a better chance than us peeps way down in the Deep South of getting some of this. One never knows since every case is different, which makes forecasting discussions so interesting.

 Why is it so quiet in here? It’s not quiet at the other place. I guess most everyone here is sleeping? Or is almost everyone over there?

0Z GEFS has had a large increase: