GaWx

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Concerning the E Coast storm development and possible ST development...

I wanted to share my thoughts and throw this out there for food for thought.
 

Sometimes in forecast meteorology you have to think proactively in the abstract at time for those potential outlier events, otherwise you can get "caught behind the 8-ball," playing catch-up and making excuses.  This current E Coast storm situation reminds me a bit of Sandy's situation, except reversed!  A non-tropical low possibly becoming ST near the E Coast and how can it be handled.

I may be reaching a bit here, but I think this particular storm situation warrants some added attention.

ECMWF and UKMET suggest ST transition is possible off the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast.  Clear warm core to 500 and SSTs easily are in range.  Phase diagrams show a fairly good symmetric warm core.

NHC does not even mention it on the 7-day TWO?  I find this a bit odd.  Many, many times they will put in something even if the slightest chance ST development for systems like this.  Just b/c it is close to the coast and may cause confusing in messaging is irrelevant to the met science!   It is what it is.  You can't pick and choose.  Yes, I know it not so simple as to how things work overall, but that does not make me wrong in this context.

In this age of social media, do you want ppl calling you out as to "this thing is clearly ST, and yet nothing from NHC".  Not good PR.   It is even more precarious in this case.  Why?, I can not recall a nor'easter this strong for the E Coast in Sep, so SSTs are near climo peak, and they are 2-4 C  above avg S of New England.  Extraordinary/outlier patterns can lead to extraordinary/outlier events, and we have the knowledge/skill to fcst such much better now, and so should use it.

I've seen NHC highlight baroclinic areas in the subtropical EPAC  that have no chance of development and given it 0/0,  and also in the Atlantic many times, so again, don't tell me there is not anything here to outlook.  If anything, it is more important due to proximity to the coast.

Thoughts?

 As I posted above, JB is insisting this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it should be named. He agrees with you that the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm due largely to GW.

 More evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, the Euro has a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. You mentioned that you don’t recall a nor’easter like this in Sept. I don’t either. They’re usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm. He said tides may go to 3-6 feet AN! 

30 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Lamest Hurricane season ever.

I am ok with that given that last decade.

“Lame” is good for us SE folks, especially those of us with elderly loved ones. Many in the SE US, even well inland, have had a very rough 2016-24. I was heavily affected by 5 storms. I’ll always take the very rare quiet season over that, especially because it will likely not be quiet next year.

22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NYHOPS 12z/23 ensemble for Sandy Hook edges into Major. idea is not to park your car where it can sand blased-flooded-tree branch damage. 

Walt,

 My nephew has a trip planned to NYC for Thu-Sun. I don’t know where he’ll be staying, where he’ll be going, and whether or not he’ll be that close to water (probably not). I’d like your opinion. Is the risk for major disruptions in NYC high enough to make you feel he should consider postponing this trip? Or should he still go there? Thanks.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

almost no rain though lol

Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city?

 There are two AOI in the Atlantic being monitored by the NHC, Invest 90L just off Africa and a possible regenerating Fay:
 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest 
off the coast of western Africa is gradually becoming better 
defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has 
increased since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived 
tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves 
northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds 
should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. 
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of 
this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding 
is possible there by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased with the remnants of 
Fay located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. While 
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for 
development, this system could become a tropical depression again 
today or tonight if the current thunderstorm activity persists. 
The system is forecast to move westward during the next couple of 
days, and by the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation 
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Blake

———————

Edit: 12Z UKMET has Fay not only hanging around for at least 168 hrs but being its strongest at hour 168 as it slowly moves WSW!

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.2N  37.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 23.09.2026    0  30.2N  37.7W     1015            27
    0000UTC 24.09.2026   12  29.8N  39.3W     1014            27
    1200UTC 24.09.2026   24  30.1N  41.0W     1015            29
    0000UTC 25.09.2026   36  30.5N  41.9W     1015            26
    1200UTC 25.09.2026   48  30.7N  42.7W     1014            28
    0000UTC 26.09.2026   60  30.6N  43.3W     1014            28
    1200UTC 26.09.2026   72  30.6N  43.9W     1013            29
    0000UTC 27.09.2026   84  30.5N  44.0W     1014            25
    1200UTC 27.09.2026   96  30.3N  43.7W     1013            28
    0000UTC 28.09.2026  108  29.5N  43.5W     1013            27
    1200UTC 28.09.2026  120  28.4N  43.7W     1012            28
    0000UTC 29.09.2026  132  27.4N  44.8W     1011            29
    1200UTC 29.09.2026  144  26.5N  46.4W     1009            31
    0000UTC 30.09.2026  156  25.7N  48.0W     1008            34
    1200UTC 30.09.2026  168  25.0N  49.2W     1004            39

 I have a family member planning to visit NYC Thu-Sun.
 Is it going to be bad enough for him to consider canceling?
 What are the chances of major coastal flooding causing a big mess through much of NYC? TIA

From the 11AM EDT advisory for TD 15E:

...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system. A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will
likely be required for a portion of the state later today.
——————————

The depression has slowed since the last advisory and seems to be 
moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A ridge to the northeast 
of Hawaii is forecast to weaken and slide eastward as a mid- 
latitude trough drops over the northwestern Hawaiian islands. 
This evolution is likely to the cause the cyclone to slow down 
later today or tonight and then turn northward or north- 
northeastward by tomorrow with some increase in forward speed. The 
trough is forecast to move westward this weekend as the ridge 
rebuilds north of Hawaii, which should force a sharp westward turn 
while the cyclone is close to the Big Island. At this time frame, 
it is impossible to know exactly when that turn will happen and, 
unsurprisingly, there is a large north-south spread in the guidance. 
Our best guidance is on the northern side of the track envelope, 
and new NHC forecast remains essentially the same as the last 
advisory.  Interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially on the Big 
Island, should closely monitor the system, with life-threatening 
catastrophic flooding possible over the steep terrain on this track.

The depression should intensify slowly at first, given the current 
structure of the low-level center not co-located with the mid-level 
circulation as seen on satellite. However, after the system 
develops an inner core, the environment seems conducive for 
significant strengthening, with low shear, high mid-level moisture 
and SSTs from 28-29C.  The rapid intensification probabilities are 
increasing, and the best model guidance is showing this as a major 
hurricane in a few days. Given the environment and the 
best-performing aids (Google DeepMind and HCCA) again showing 
major-hurricane strength, the NHC forecast is raised from the 
previous one and shows the cyclone as a major hurricane when it 
approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.5N 154.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.7N 155.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.0N 155.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.7N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.7N 154.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.6N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.2N 154.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 18.1N 157.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 18.7N 160.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I don't think it's hyperbole to say that all time US records for rainfall could be broken, with the slow movement, size/strength, track and of course terrain enhancement 

 The very rough 2026 for Hawaii looks to get even rougher later this week!

 TD 15E had formed in the E PAC back on Sep 13th from an AEW that had moved off of Africa way back on Aug 27th. This was actually the very next wave after the one that produced Dolly in the Atlantic! This then degenerated in the E PAC into an open wave late on Sep 15th.

 But one week later (late last night), this reorganized back to TD 15E 405 miles SSE of Hilo, Hawaii, moving WNW. It’s forecasted to become a TS later today and then turn sharply N tonight. It is then forecasted to become a H tomorrow night and reach high end cat 2 H status Fri night while not too far S of the big island of Hawaii meaning a potential serious threat there then:

From the NHC discussion:

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt on the 
southwest side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected 
to shift eastward and weaken while a mid- to upper-level low dives 
southwestward near the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. This pattern 
change should cause the cyclone to slow down and then turn northward 
or north-northeastward later this week. That motion should take the 
cyclone near the Big Island of Hawaii late Friday or on Saturday. 
Around that time, the upper low is expected to weaken and move 
westward, allowing mid-level ridging to become re-established to the 
north of the system. In response, the cyclone should turn and then 
accelerate westward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 14.0N 153.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 154.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.6N 155.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.0N 155.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.9N 155.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 154.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 17.9N 154.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 18.3N 156.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 18.2N 159.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

I just noticed that CHS this afternoon lowered my temps for late week into the weekend to the solidly BN range, thanks at least in part to the big nor’easter off the NE US:

FRIDAY 
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 
FRIDAY NIGHT 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
SATURDAY 
SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. 
SATURDAY NIGHT 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
SUNDAY 
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. 

The treadmill may get a break during this period! Hello park! It’s a wonderful time of the year!

6 hours ago, Windspeed said:

We're several days away. The important thing to note from satellite is that there is a surface trough with regions of spin. Some of that energy may even split off to the east. But a surface low will eventually organize, intensify and move near the Mid-Atlantic or New England. It's a bit chaotic between operational runs right now because we're dealing with a phasing situation in 48-72 hrs.

Also, you know how tell the season is dead? When the entire discussion has been taken over by a potential mid-latitudinal coastal storm in the main tropical thread.

Joe Bastardi makes a good point about this likely being warm core at least in the early stages since it would be forming over 82-83F water. He said it weakens as it moves toward the coast because that’s what a warm core storm would do as it gets into cooler SSTs.

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

NHC mentioned last night the depth of the 30-31 C ocean temp was quite deep in this area, but still some slight upwelling would occur for such an intense and slow-moving TC.  That could reduce max potential a bit.  Just thinking of how low the pressure can get.  Only Patricia has EPAC pressure below 900 mb.

Also, regardless of upwelling, this like all TCs of course removes heat from the upper layers of the ocean (potential energy) since that heat is converted to kinetic energy (conservation of energy). So that, alone, should always induce its own cooling even without upwelling per se. And a very strong one like Polo should be taking heat from the ocean at a more rapid rate than a weaker one. That, alone, often brings the SSTs in and near the center down 1-2C based on my following SSTs in the past with deep warmth.

 A batch of heavy showers has popped up, which lead to mainly heavy rain starting at 12:50PM. It is continuing to rain at a moderate rate and this is adding up nicely. 1/2”++ has already fallen. The showers are moving SSW. Before today, I had received 2” MTD. So, these are beneficial rains.

Edit: I estimate a total of 0.55” on Sep 22nd, which brings me to ~2.55” MTD.

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

I imagine this will go back up. RONI is already at +2.5 and while I am aware this is a daily index compared to a 3 month mean, it is only September and we likely have 2-3 more months until the peak. I am thinking the 3 month mean will be closer to 3-3.3

 This is tricky. Whereas cyclonicwx’s OISST graph has indeed had it at +2.5 for the past 10 days including last week, keep in mind that NOAA had it at only +2.1 for last week. Thus, NOAA had it 0.4 cooler than cyclonicwx’s OISST graph. Actually, NOAA has been cooler than cyclonicwx by 0.4 for 9 straight weeks! NOAA labels their weeklies as OISSTv2.1. Thus, I wonder if cyclonicwx uses an older version of OISST. If so, that could possibly explain the 0.4 difference for the last 9 weeks.

 Note that cyclonicwx in late June/early July was warmer by only 0.1. I wonder if the latest version of OISST started being used just after that.

 So, per NOAA, last week’s equivalent RONI (based on OISSTv2.1) was still only +2.1. So, with that being the case, there’s quite a ways to go to see if it actually does reach a +3.0 trimonthly peak per NOAA.

NOAA Weeklies:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

*Edit: I just found out that OISSTv2.1 was first implemented way back on 4/26/2020:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst

 So, it remains a mystery why cyclonicwx’s OISST graph has been 0.4 warmer than NOAA’s OISSTv2.1 based weeklies for 9 weeks! So, until NOAA’s weeklies get close to cyclonicwx (if they do), I’ll continue to treat cyclonicwx’s OISST graphs as too warm vs NOAA. The NOAA August’s +1.67, which is ERSSTv6 based, was even a little cooler than NOAA’s OISSTv2.1 based weeklies would have suggested! So, NOAA and cyclonicwx are world’s apart.

 The latest CFSv2 RONI peak prog unlike for recent days doesn’t have most of the blue lines underneath most of the red lines. When it did, that predicted well the subsequent reductions in the progged peak, which came all the way down to +2.8 from +3.5 in late July. The current configuration is much more balanced and even has the average blue a little warmer than the avg. red. Thus, I don’t expect more drops in the progged peak over the next few days and there’s even a small chance for a slight bounce upward:

1 hour ago, George001 said:

This El Niño is absolutely a beast, on track to be the strongest on record. However, I am extremely skeptical of El Niño conditions lingering into next June. If it were a weak El Niño I would be more inclined to buy the 2nd year Nino idea, but I would think it’s much more likely it collapses into La Niña rather than going from a super to moderate-strong El Niño. 

 Whereas historical stats certainly agree that La Niña is quite possible in ‘27-‘28, that same history says that there’s actually a decent chance for either neutral or, believe it or not, even El Niño in ‘27-‘28. Here’s why:

 El Niños peaking at +1.4+ occurred in the following 19 fall/winters and were followed by these:

+1.4+ Nino: subsequent fall/winter ENSO

1877-8: cold neutral

1888-9: strong Nina

1896-7: cold neutral

1899-1900: warm neutral

1902-3: moderate Nina

1905-6: weak Nina

1918-9: weak Nino

1930-1: cold neutral

1940-1: moderate Nino

1957-8: weak Nino

1965-6: cold neutral

1972-3: strong Nina

1982-3: moderate Nina

1986-7: moderate Nino

1991-2: weak Nino

1997-8: strong Nina

2009-10: strong Nina

2015-6: moderate Nina

2023-4: moderate Nina

—————————

So, these 19 +1.4+ El Niños were followed by these:

Strong Niña: 4 (21%)

Moderate Nina: 4 (21%)

Weak Nina: 1 (5%)

Cold neutral: 4 (21%)

Warm neutral: 1 (5%)

Weak Nino: 3 (16%)

Moderate Nino: 2 (11%)

—————————

Tally:

47% Nina

26% neutral

26% El Nino

———————

Conclusion:

La Nina is the best single possibility for ‘27-‘28 due to its large plurality (being at 47%), but neutral or even El Niño are obviously each quite possible as the two of them, combined, actually occurred about as often as La Nina after these strongest 19 El Niños on record.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that it's fluid, as is everything.....but it's been a consistent theme.

Here is the graphic from a month ago:

 

The graphics are tools, not substitutes for critical thinking. We have a developing record El Nino abutting a decade of cool ENSO residue throughout the N HEM....this resistance makes sense, and is not the product of some short-term perturbation. Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS.

 

This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS.

 

 

Excellent post as a whopping ~90% of the daily graphs since July 1st have averaged a -AAM in the 30N to 40N corridor! The 40N to 50N corridor also has a very high % that are -AAM although not quite as high as the 90% especially due to the last few weeks.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, El Nino is a beast in the tropics, but note the one significant pocket of -AAM on the globe happens to be right at our latitude, which make sense given the sensible disconnect with past major El Nino events. I appreciate the magnitude of the event, but just think it's a bit disingenuous to comment on how well coupled the El Nino is without mentioning that, since we all live within that latitudinal envelop.

 Thanks, Ray. Indeed, that 9/21/26 graph has the only significant pocket of -AAM centered at our latitudes as you noted. However, I assume you realize that these lat. based graphs are quite fluid, and thus it could look quite different at our latitudes within just a few days for all anyone knows. Also, the extremely + tropical latitudes overall have little choice but to drop back at least some soon. I’ll try to follow these daily from this point on.

 Here’s the brand new update for 0Z on 9/22/26: note that the -AAM pocket at our latitudes is still there and still the most significant -AAM area but isn’t as negative. Also, although 52N-61N has dropped, 63N to 90N is significantly more positive vs yesterday with a peak of +2 SDs at 78N vs +1.3 yesterday:

Compare to yesterday’s:

 The corresponding global mean for 9/22/26 is as expected per prior days’ CFSv2 progs on its last legs of the extreme level of +4+ although it fwiw keeps a very strong +3+ mean on all but a few days in early Oct:

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point. 

 Thanks for posting this.
 
 For the first time I examined past versions of this because I just realized that the excellent website has these graphs going back to 4/11/2022. So, there’s ~1,000 of these to compare to. Now I know why the relative global AAM standardized anomaly graphs have been at extreme levels (>+4). This latitudinal based graph for 9/21/26 is an absolute beast overall and thus exhibits the strength of this Nino very well! Why?

1. Back to 4/11/22, I couldn’t find even one other day’s graph with a more positive avg std. AAM anomaly for the area from -40 to +30! The straight avg std. dev above the mean for that huge area on 9/21/26 is clearly >2. Keep in mind that 2 std dev above the mean at any one latitude is way up at the 98th percentile and thus nearly 1/3 of the globe (20N to 17S) is >>+2 std dev/>>98th percentile!

2. The # of degrees of latitude with a negative AAM anomaly of the 180 total degrees on this 9/21/26 graph adds to only 29 degrees of the 180 total (16%). I couldn’t find even one other with that small a % of latitudes <0!

3. As one can see, most of the latitudes with a -AAM anomaly on 9/21/26 are only down to the 0 to -0.3 std dev range. The lowest is only down to -1.1, which is quite high for the lowest vs the other ~1,000 graphs. The highest lowest I could find is only barely higher (~-0.9) and it overall still had a much larger area below the 0 line than 9/21/26:

So, it appears that 9/21/26 has the smallest area <0 of any back to 2022!

Here again is this 9/21/26 beast of a +AAM anom by latitude. Keep in mind that just 1 std dev above the mean is up at the 84th percentile:

 Below is the corresponding relative global AAM, which since 0Z of 9/19/26 has been at an extreme level of >+4 std dev! This is probably the peak day as it should get back to <+4 by 9/23/26. How rare is 4 std dev above the mean? Per stat. formulas, only 1 in 31,574 days (that’s once per 87 years) gets to that level! (For 3 std dev, it’s ~once/year):

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Every couple of weeks will post the latest WB CFSV2 30 day monthly anomaly maps.

WB CFSv2 temp maps:

1. Have algo issues that lead to bad artifacts. I’ve posted on this here in the past. Here are some examples

-note the cold spot over S Lake Michigan and warm spot only 250 miles to the north over N Lake Michigan that are almost always on these WB maps; the real CFSv2 output essentially never has these

-note the E coast down to FL usually looks like a thin sharp warm barrier to any colder anomalies to the west; again, this essentially never is on the real output

2. WB CFSv2 maps are strongly cold biased for much of the E US. And this is the case even with WB using the colder 1981-2010 climo instead of 1991-2010, which the CFSv2 site uses! All one has to do to know this is to compare to the maps at the CFSv2 site.
 

 All 4 (DJFM) are notably too cold in almost all of the area away from the E coast. But I’ll focus on the Dec map to illustrate the strong cold bias:

-Chicago’s +0.5C/1F vs 1981-2010 on WB but the CFS site’s relevant 10 day mean maps (see below) are all significantly warmer and they average +2.25C/4F vs the warmer 1991-2020 meaning WB is ~4F too cold.

-SL’s 0.0 C/F vs 1981-2010 on WB but CFS actual maps are all significantly warmer and average +1.5C/3F vs 1991-2020 meaning WB is ~4F too cold

-Knoxville’s -1C/-2F vs 1981-2010 on WB but CFS actual maps have it at +0.6C/+1F vs 1991-2020 meaning WB’s ~4F too cold

-Despite the CFS site’s maps averaging AN from TN-NC north, WB in inland areas doesn’t have AN start til 500 miles to the N in N IL to N OH to NW PA and that’s even vs a colder climo base! That’s ignoring the immediate E coast, which has its own problems as already noted and is actually a bit too warm overall despite it being 4F too cold for much of the inland areas!

Relevant 10 day mean Dec maps at CFSv2 site:

9/10-19:

8/31-9/9:

8/21-30:

 

8/12-21:

@Stormchaserchuck1@donsutherland1

 I’ve already compared the current Nino to the prior one for both GLAAM and for OHC (like night and day).
 

1. Here’s a similar comparison of PDO:

Current: -0.71

Sept of 2023: ~-2.4 on Sept 19th though these are admittedly volatile as one can see it rose steeply Oct 1-20th:

2. SOI: 90 day mean is now way down at ~-22. The mean was down to only -8 for the same 90 day period in 2023. It was -18 in 2015 and -14 in 1997. A rough estimate using monthlies (due to no dailies that far back) for 1982 is -19 to -20.

 The only other 90 day mean as of Sept 20th back to 1876 that realistically could be about as low as 2026’s -22 based on monthlies is 1896 (incoming strong Nino) though that chance is <50% as it is more likely in the -20 to -21 range.

 So in summary:

2026: -22

2023: -8

2015: -18

1997: -14

1982: -19 to -20

1896: -20 to -21

 The other super-Ninos’ rough estimates: none even close to 2026, 1896, 1982, 2015:

1972: -13

1965: -14

1957: -5

1888: -11

1877: -10

OHC of 180-100W appears to currently be at its highest yet (~+3.3):

 To compare, look how low was the same point in Sept of 2023 (only ~+1):

Highest 2023-4 ever got was only just over +1.5:

 Further to my global relative AAM post above showing it >+4 since yesterday and to show the huge contrast to the prior El Nino, here are some of the graphs I saved from 2023-4, which all show a much lower amplitude (keep in mind that CFSv2 progs looking out especially past 2 weeks have been biased positive as comparing these graphs to each other clearly show):

11/6/23: +0.15

12/16/23: +0.7:

12/30/23: +1.15 (highest of any I saved from 2023-4)

1/8/24: +0.15


2/3/24: +0.5

2/21/24: +0.2

3/1/24: -0.35

 The global relative AAM remains in historic territory of +4+, which should last into tomorrow. This is probably its highest since Feb of 1998. For comparison, 2023-4 was no more than in the low +1 region on any of the graphs I saved with most of them <+0.5:

The AAM went over +4 as expected yesterday (9/19) per the image below, an extremely rare/historic event. The last time it was this high may very well have been in early Feb of 1998. It appears that it will likely stay >+4 into Sept 21st:

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Have a link to the actual main site?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml