GaWx

14 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Winter is over for the piedmont 

What is your definition of “winter is over”? I read this often from various people as if it’s a black and white thing but without them explaining what they mean. Thanks.

The period Feb 1-7, 2026 was in MJO phase 8 as per this image:

 Using Baltimore again as a proxy for the E US, Feb 1-7 was the coldest La Nina Feb phase 8 on record in terms of both average anomaly and cumulative anomaly. Keep in mind that 

-It averaged 9 BN. The prior coldest was 7 BN and that was just a one day period.

-The cumulative anomaly was 66 BN over the 7 days. The prior largest cumulative Feb phase 8 La Niña anomaly was only 36 BN, which was over a 9 day period in mid Feb of 1999.

  Comparing this to other Feb MJO phases during La Niña:

- This very cold phase 8’s cumulative anomaly of 66 BN is the third largest of all phases with only these two exceeding that:

1. Early Feb of 1996’s phase 3 added up to 84 BN over 7 days

2. Late Feb of 2008’s phase 1 added up to 70 BN over 10 days.

Warmth won’t last per EWs for last few days, including today’s, as SE goes back down to back and forth averaging NN and NE goes back to cold: these are for 2/23-3/1

8 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

-NAO rising to positive. -PNA becoming deeper. Meteorology over modelology, it shouldn't take much for us to understand that is opposite of the a good winter pattern. That's about as bad as it gets 

Hoping after a mild week 2 for an improvement to mainly NN in the SE late month into March!

 The chances for an overall Feb -PNA are good as of now with a strong -PNA upcoming. This goes through Feb 24th:

AO now rising sharply:

NAO is, like the AO, also rising. However, it remains to be seen whether or not this rise will be enough to get the DJF NAO >-0.25, the # I’ve always used to classify a winter as -NAO vs neutral. DJ is at -0.5. In order for DJF to rise above -0.25, the Feb NAO would need to end up >+0.25, which is a decent possibility per this:

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

May be lingering effects, but it’s safe to say that La niña is done for. 

Regardless, it’s important for continuity/looking back that we keep most of the posts specifically pertaining to the rest of this cold season in this thread. Besides the lag of ENSO related effects, these threads are obviously about far more than ENSO, itself.

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hoping there is enough time to reach phase 8 again before mid March....

 If I get enough time, I’ll analyze the Baltimore daily temperatures for some of the MJO phases in (post) La Niña years in March as a followup to my 20 Feb MJO La Niña MJO phase analysis. If I do, I might start with 8. I’d look at the same 20.

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The world is warmer than it has been and is continuing to warm largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Extreme cold periods are becoming warmer and less frequent than they once were. Nevertheless, that does not mean that such cold, when it occurs regionally, should be dismissed out-of-hand. The kind of sustained deep cold that has occurred in the Great Lakes Region and Northeast is uncommon today. It is not trivial. It is one of this winter's highlights. 

For example, New York City saw a 16-day mean temperature below 20° for the 125th time since record-keeping began in 1869. However, it was the first such occurrence since 1982. That was 44 years ago. That rarity makes it noteworthy. Moreover, it's plausible that at least some of us might not see such sustained and deep cold again during our lifetimes given how infrequent it has become.

That places like Phoenix are on course for their warmest winter on record does not minimize the cold that has just occurred elsewhere. That it has occurred in a warmer and warming world makes it all the more remarkable.

Don, once you adjust normals upward to take into account GW, is deep cold still about as common as it ever was? Example: adjust normals upward by 3F vs what normals were from around 1900. After doing so, is same degree of extreme cold about as common as it was then?

2 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

I think the reason why the record warm west is getting so much attention is because the eastern half of the US has seen cold like this before. I mean, aside from a few record lows over the past few weeks on random days, nothing about the cold air has been unprecedented. Unusual, strong, and brutal yes. Record-breaking? No. But the fact that the plains and further west have almost 0 snow and have been running around 20 degrees above average since late November is excruciatingly rare and thus, record breaking. And as the world continues to warm, the warmest anomalies almost always outpace the colder anomalies. This winter is a great example of that 

Of course warmest will outpace coldest with global land areas averaging 3F warmer than where the avg was in 1900. If you were to subtract 3F from recent years of records, wouldn’t cold anomalies be on par with warm anomalies?

20 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Idk, March still looks pretty torchy to me, at least the first half.

Pick your model. If one picks Feb 8th ext GEFS like you did (2/9 ext GEFS not out yet), it looks mild. But if one picks the Euro Weeklies, which is a superior model to the GEFS, it isn’t as it’s a mix of AN, NN, and BN. Of course none of them are reliable that far out. But I much prefer the ext Euro over ext GEFS.

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Per what the EW have been showing this period (2/17-23) could end up the warmest week in the E 1/3 of the US overall, possibly even in the absolutes in some areas, til at least late March.

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

The EW week 3/2-8 suggests warmer sneaking back in but not even to the E coast. But afterward, the EW then suggest that that warming, itself, would also be temporary as per what I just posted.

2 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

Ideally, you would have wanted a SSW to take place by mid February in order to have its effects felt in March. Nothing but bad trends across the board for the long range so far. SSW looks less likely, and long range looks like warm/wet and cold/dry. Dry begets dry, and the drought conditions continue. The residual -NAO will likely help us remain cooler relative to average but the rest of CONUS will be torching and our source region gets real warm as well. 

 
Today’s Euro Weeklies fwiw for Feb 23rd-Mar 22nd still show no sustained NE warmth and only limited sustained warmth at most in rest of E US:

2/23-3/1 cold NE/NN elsewhere:

3/2-8 NN NE; this is only AN week of these 4 weeks OH Valley to SE and it doesn’t even have sustained torching as it’s just the edge:

3/9-15 cooled back to NN all of E US:

3/16-22 NN entire E US:

 Notice that on all of these maps the W 1/2 of US is mild. More often than not, that supports the E US at the least not being mild and sometimes downright cold. This is certainly not a warm look for the E US and suggests no early spring despite the expected false spring next week.

@40/70 Benchmark

30 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I hope it trends warmer. I don’t see snow on the table with this one, and I’m more than fine missing out on ice. Just give me the beneficial rain and let it wash the salt off the road. I still have a sleet pack from 2 weeks ago that refuses to melt. 

Very beneficial rains coming to much of SE over next 7 day period per these 12Z runs:

GEFS:

Euro:

GFS:

CMC:

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Severe or ice, who knows?

Regardless, prospects of heavy qpf is potentially the most important news coming out of this as regards helping with the drought. The SE needs the rain!

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One word comes to mind looking at overnight modeling: spring 

 The threat of a mid-month winter storm for your area on the operationals has obviously come down as I posted. However, todays still cold and after the next few days’ of non-torch warming, it still looks mainly cold up your way for most of 2/12-15 (much colder anomalies than down here). Plus highly beneficial rain appears to be headed into much of the drought parched SE though sadly probably not down here. Then after a 6 day warming, it cools off substantially again with no sign of sustained warmth for late month into early March. With this, I expect at least one more wintry threat for much of especially well inland NC as the WPO and AO fall back some  A key though will be the PNA. It’s headed for unfavorable stout negative territory, but will it rise back to closer to neutral late month? PNA has been mainly over performing vs largely poor predictions.

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z ICON just Rain. 

The other 0Z ops are also quiet. But here’s the 0Z GEFS:

14 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 4 by the 22nd. Hopefully enough time left on the clock for another snowy period. Worst case is its too late but we end up with yet another cold and rainy spring.

 I finally finished my analysis of temperatures at Baltimore (as a rep. of the middle portion of the E coast) during the 20 La Niña Februaries (566 days, a big sample) by MJO phase. Keep in mind that La Niña Februaries in the E US have averaged a bit AN (+2.3F at Baltimore) as expected. That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. If a phase is colder (warmer) than +2.3, I’m considering it a cold (warm) phase on average relative to La Niña Feb climo.

 Here are the resulting anomalies (in degrees F) keeping in mind these are merely averages of a wide range from MB or B to MA for each phase:

Phase 1: +2.1 (near Niña Feb climo)

Phase 2: +4.4 (2nd warmest)

Phase 3: -1.5 (easily coldest at 3.8 colder than Niña Feb climo)

Phase 4: +3.3

Phase 5: +3.1

Phase 6: +5.5 (warmest)

Phase 7: +2.2 (near Nina Feb climo)

Phase 8: +0.7 (2nd coldest)

Data sources:

1. MJO for each day of the 20 La Niña Febs:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. Daily Baltimore temperatures for each day in Feb:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

I have to admit Bad Bunny wasn’t bad at all at the Super Bowl halftime show. It was quite entertaining despite my understanding very little Spanish and was better than most of these in recent years imho.

 Today’s crisp sunny very low dewpoint day was near ideal for my walk today! Nice way to top off a great weekend for outdoor activities.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row 

When you imply that Nov-Jan were all 3 BN cold, what specific area are you referring to? TIA

Clownies for 0Z:

CMC

King

0Z Euro nice hit N NC:

12Z Euro has notable snow much of NC and VA starting Valentine’s Day afternoon and ending late that night:

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

Top 10 cold period past two and a half weeks for eastern US:

https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/2019729810914992195

Dominant indices Jan 15-Feb 4:
- moderate to strong +PNA
- strong to very strong -AO
- moderate to very strong -EPO
- moderate to strong -WPO
- so one of the greatest 3 week long combos of +PNA, -AO, -EPO, -WPO on record
- strong to moderate MJO phases 6-7 and weak phase 8
- neutral NAO averaged out with no strong anomalies