I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in these places in the NW US and I’m guessing there are others that I missed:

1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long):
ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN  

SITE       HIGH TEMP   PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD   PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS  

BILLINGS      111         108 (7/14/2002)                1934  

LIVINGSTON    105         105 (8/5/1961)                 1948  

MILES CITY    115         111 (6/26/2012)                1937  

SHERIDAN      109         107 (7/27/2021)                1907  

BAKER         110         109 (7/25/2024)                1998  

2) N UT

..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY,   

UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN   

2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE   

RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002,   

2021, AND 2022.  

3) E ID:

THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES   

TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100   

DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places:

A. How much did CC likely contribute to these?
 

B. How much did UHI likely contribute? Example: SLC now has 200K folks.

But OTOH, check out Miles City pop: still small at only 8.4K in 2020 with only a 17% increase since 1930 with records starting in 1937. Thus, UHI factor seems close to nil. Yet, they set their new all time record by 4F! 
——————

1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long):
ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN  

SITE       HIGH TEMP   PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD   PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS  

BILLINGS      111         108 (7/14/2002)                1934  

LIVINGSTON    105         105 (8/5/1961)                 1948  

MILES CITY    115         111 (6/26/2012)                1937  

SHERIDAN      109         107 (7/27/2021)                1907  

BAKER         110         109 (7/25/2024)                1998  

——————

2) N UT

..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY,   

UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN   

2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE   

RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002,   

2021, AND 2022.  

Records at SLC go back to 1872!

———————
3) E ID:

THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES   

TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100   

DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

How often does something like this happen in the NW US in July during a strong El Niño? I assume hardly ever. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
 

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places:

1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long):
ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN  

SITE       HIGH TEMP   PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD   PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS  

BILLINGS      111         108 (7/14/2002)                1934  

LIVINGSTON    105         105 (8/5/1961)                 1948  

MILES CITY    115         111 (6/26/2012)                1937  

SHERIDAN      109         107 (7/27/2021)                1907  

BAKER         110         109 (7/25/2024)                1998  

2) N UT

..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY,   

UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN   

2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE   

RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002,   

2021, AND 2022.  

3) E ID:

THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES   

TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100   

DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 1997-1998 was the last canonical super El Niño. The La Niña-like influence in December 2015 merging with the Nino standing wave was through the MJO 5. The precipitation impacts were also different from previous super El Niños.

In 2023-2024 we saw another MJO excursion through the IO and MC during January when the Southeast ridge emerged.

The pattern since May has seen the strongest heat and ridging across the CONUS outside a neutral or La Niña summer with a strong -PDO influence. The summer -PDO drop and +AMO increase has been a common feature during the 2020s.

So there are multiple ways for competing or overlapping marine heatwaves to interact with an El Niño. This summer is the most extreme example of a dominant -PDO pattern across the CONUS at the same time a record super El Niño is strengthening.

The 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niños showed that the interaction actually resulted in warmer winters conditions than 1997-1998. Both winters featured the El Niño ridge south of Hudson Bay building down further into the Eastern U.S. than normal. 

But even if this event found a way to have the canonical 1997-1998 response, a +3.9 event alone without any -PDO or MC forcing influence could easily surpass 1997-1998 in spots for warmth.

Ridges have been getting stronger than troughs regardless of whether we have an El Niño or La Niña.

 

Chris, 

Keep in mind that the mild 2015-6 avg. in the E US was so heavily dominated by the warmest Dec on record in many locations. I assume you realize that Jan-Feb wasn’t mild in the E US outside of New England with Jan actually being chilly VA S and SW:

 To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong.

 I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7. 

 So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.

 To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong.

 I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7. 

 So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 Unfortunately, TAO doesn’t have buoy data for 160W. It has them at 170W and 155W.
 

For July of 2015, TAO does confirm that 30C didn’t make it as far E as 155W. But it did make it to 170W at 2N and 2S though not to 5S:

2N: avg ~30.0C

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2n170w_dy.ascii

2S: avg ~30.2C

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2s170w_dy.ascii

But it was <30C (~29.8C) at 5S:

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst5s170w_dy.ascii

————————————

How does July 2026 compare to July 2015 at 170W?

2026 at 2N: avg ~30.35C or ~0.35C warmer than 2015

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2n170w_dy.ascii

2026 at 2S: avg ~30.60C or ~0.40C warmer than 2015

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2s170w_dy.ascii

2026 at 5S: N/A..so can’t compare

———————

Summary: TAO confirms that 2026 is currently notably warmer (~0.4C) than July 2015 at 170W. But the avg tropical SST has also warmed since 2015. But it hasn’t warmed by as much as it’s closer to 0.25C warming, which tells me that July 2026 is warmer than July 2015 at 170W by 0.15C even on a relative basis.

 I hit 100.9 at home at 2:24PM today and then 101.1 at 2:35PM, which are the hottest I’ve seen on my thermometer so far this summer! 
 
 The good news though is that I’ve already heard thunder and prospects for a much cooler late afternoon than the prior 3 days are very high due to outflow boundaries from nearby thunderstorms at the least, and probably also actual rainfall.

 It has already dropped to back quite a bit with 96.9 as of 2:51PM due to increased clouds and popups nearby.

—————

Edit 6PM: Thunderstorm incoming here.

7:10PM update: that gave me a very nice 1”+ over the last hour, heaviest day of rain since June 18th. This is already enough to allow me to stop the 3 times a week watering for now. 

Only light rain now. But looks like there will be additional significant rains starting soon per radar.

Update 10:44 AM 7/13: I ended up with a very nice grand total of ~1.5” yesterday (7/12), which gets me to ~1.9” MTD.

26 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’m towards the “it’ll be a canonically coupled event” camp. And for the record I disagreed with takes during 24-25 and 25-26 that we’ll see predominate RNA pattern (we didn’t). So i’m not just saying it because I want it to be warm. 

Per NOAA in DJF (my def. of neutral PNA is between -0.25 and +0.25)

1. 2024-5 was, indeed, very +PNA with a whopping 72 of 90 days being +PNA vs 18 neutral PNA and zero -PNA! That’s amazing for La Niña! Going back to 1949-50, the only other DJF without a single -PNA day was 2002-3!

2. 2025-6 was actually a more typical La Niña with more -PNA than +PNA: 49 -PNA, 14 neutral PNA, and 27 +PNA.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I injected some sarcasm by mocking him a bit....guilty; but there was no need for the absurd racism accusation. Anyone with any familiarity with this thread knew what I was doing there. He has a tendency to respond to resistance in this truly vile manner that usually includes very derogatory insults, and in this case, a pathetic attempt to inject race as a means to vilify me rather than simply address the point. 

Ray, Adam, and others,

I’m trying not to take sides. I just want the great discussion back in the main thread. Would y’all please take this fight to here in banter? TIA

@snowman19

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Larry, I don't see the issue with reenforcing the fact that this July has been more representative of the -PDO data set and it has the developing super El Niño.

Ray,  I have no issue, whatsoever, in anyone emphasizing the significance of the restrengthening -PDO, especially since I very recently posted about the up to date WCS PDO plunge. But it got out of hand from there and I’m trying to do whatever I can to get it back on track. That’s why I’m responding to your post here in banter. I’m not taking sides but just want that great thread to get back on track with high quality discussion.

Folks, this thread has had great met. discussion recently. Please don’t let it get out of hand. Because this is my favorite met. thread at this BB, I’d appreciate it if the El Niño banter thread were used instead for certain posts, which is easy to do by quoting a post from here and responding to it at this link:

1. Today it hit 100 for the high at KSAV for the 3rd day in a row, which hadn’t happened since that unforgettable record hot late May of 2019!

2. Although the chance wasn’t even mentioned since it was only 10%, the Savannah area had sudden evening pop-ups as a result of an outflow boundary coming S from earlier SC convection that collided with a W moving seabreeze per radar. It’s so cool to see these collisions! 

At my home, I had a big temp. drop along with gusty winds and loud thunder. Several gusts to 43 mph were measured just off of Tybee. 

I had two short periods of rain, but together they amounted to only ~0.01”. Other areas in the county like to the SW, to the S (Montgomery), and to the SE, especially Skidaway Island, had significant to heavy amounts. As a matter of fact:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 
1042 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026 

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON 

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. 

..REMARKS.. 

1015 PM RAIN 1 NE SKIDAWAY ISLAND 31.95N 81.04W 
07/11/2026 M2.51 INCH CHATHAM GA MESONET 

UGA34 REPORTS 2.51 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THE PAST 3 
HOURS.

On 7/10/2026 at 11:18 AM, GaWx said:

 
Thanks, Adam. So, Long Paddock after ~a week finally came back to updating its daily SOIs. This is what I earlier posted about this:

 In doing so, it also retroactively changed some dailies prior to July 3rd. What’s most interesting is that those changes changed what had been 2 small positives to negatives: June 18th/19th changed from +4/+1 to -4/-4. Based on the original June 18th release of +4, a 37 day -SOI streak had apparently ended June 18th. However, with these changes, it didn’t and thus we’re in a very long -SOI streak that’s now at a whopping 62 days and is still going strong!

 How does this compare to the longest back to 1991?

-100 days in 1998

-72 days in 1997

-66 days in 2015

-65 days in 2023

-62 days and counting 2026

Looking at model SLP forecasts, I see a near certainty that the current -SOI streak will make it to 67+ days. That would then make it the 3rd longest -SOI streak on record (back to 1991). Will it make it past 72 days? That’s too far out to predict with confidence right now. But that appears to have a decent chance as of now.

4 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

What are the chances this goes to 5 C? not an expert on this...

 I just researched it. CMCC is an Italian climate model. I can’t find verification data, but +5.3C monthly peak isn’t going to happen on a RONI basis and almost certainly not even per ONI.
 
 If there had been other models near that, I might have given it a little more consideration. But with it 1.4C warmer than the 2nd warmest on that list and with that 2nd warmest, itself, already forecasting >1C warmer than the current record warmest, I find it hard to consider it even remotely possible.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is the actual ERA 5 temperature map which produced the climate record for June 2026. The Pacific Arctic area to the north of Alaska did have its coldest June since the 1940s as I mentioned in my first post.

But you can see how the total area from 80N to 90N had zones closest to the warmest on record on the Atlantic side. So the actual rank of the high Arctic wasn’t the coldest on record. Since the totality of the Arctic north of 60N had the warmest June on record.

Even the less reliable ECWMF only starts in 2002, so an apples to apples comparison to any year earlier than 2002 can’t be made. This is why we use Era 5 for comparison  to times since the 1940s. 

 

But for just 80N+, it is quite cold overall!

Below is a closeup of just the 80N+ portion showing that overall it’s quite cold:

1. only ~1/7 is in warmest 1/2 of years vs ~6/7  in coldest 1/2

2.

-a little >50% is in 4 coldest colors meaning coldest 11 of 87

-but only ~6% is in warmest 11, which is <1/8 the size of coldest 11

3.

-~25% is in coldest 3 of 87

-but only ~1% is in warmest 3 of 87, which is a mere 1/25 of the size of coldest 3

100.0F right now (4:48PM) at my home!

After rising to -0.19 on June 24th, the WCS daily PDO has since plunged and is as of July 9th down to -1.50, which is the lowest daily PDO since way back on Nov 8th!

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We are already way ahead of all other El Niños on record in region 3.4. That aside, once this current WWB/DWKW and the 30C isotherm east of the dateline catches up and does their dirty work over the next month, Paul Roundy thinks this event surpasses 1997 in the far eastern ENSO regions next…subsurface and surface

 The TAO buoy data, including the Dateline data found at the links below, totally confirms Roundy’s noting of the lack of a consistent 30C isotherm E of the Dateline in 1997 when considering SSTs along the 180 and 170W longitudes and comparing those to 1997 to 2026. But it’s also important to keep in mind that there’s been a large amount of GW since 1997. So, that by itself gives 2026 a significant advantage. That’s of course why relative measures have been incorporated in products by NOAA and some others worldwide. That being said, this isn’t meant to minimize the significance of what Roundy said as it’s still a big deal!

 That’s the beauty of the SOI. It doesn’t appear to be substantially affected by GW and thus the comparison to past years.

TAO buoy historical data:

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data1897934/sst5s180w_dy.ascii

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data1897934/sst0n180w_dy.ascii

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Massive -SOI turnaround since March. 30 day down to -25. Today’s number is over -44



 

 
Thanks, Adam. So, Long Paddock after ~a week finally came back to updating its daily SOIs. This is what I earlier posted about this:

 In doing so, it also retroactively changed some dailies prior to July 3rd. What’s most interesting is that those changes changed what had been 2 small positives to negatives: June 18th/19th changed from +4/+1 to -4/-4. Based on the original June 18th release of +4, a 37 day -SOI streak had apparently ended June 18th. However, with these changes, it didn’t and thus we’re in a very long -SOI streak that’s now at a whopping 62 days and is still going strong!

 How does this compare to the longest back to 1991?

-100 days in 1998

-72 days in 1997

-66 days in 2015

-65 days in 2023

-62 days and counting 2026

51 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Great news for climate scientists and bad news for climate alarmists with this appointment of Dr. Weilicki to lead the U.S. Global Change Research Program!!  From Secretary Chris White  "Matt Weilicki is an honest scientist who follows the data wherever it leads. That is what science is all about. He will lead our efforts to honestly present the empirical climate data to guide policy makers. Sadly, too much of the mainstream climate community has focused on a scary narrative that is inconsistent with actual climate data, leading so many astray like reporters at Politico. I welcome the new era where data, not rhetoric, is the arbiter of truth. Growing the government, increasing energy prices, and scaring children will no longer be the goal. Science will be the goal. So happy to have Matt in this role!"

I’d love for this to be true. However, unfortunately:

The office that produces the National Climate Assessment has been reconstituted, after the administration gutted it last year.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/09/the-administration-has-a-new-climate-change-office-its-headed-by-a-climate-critic-00990916

—————————

Spreading climate misinformation is fast becoming a shortcut to popularity across right-wing media. This man’s rise proves it.

Matthew Wielicki makes baseless claims about climate change and is now a budding star in the climate denial community

https://www.mediamatters.org/climate-deniers/spreading-climate-misinformation-fast-becoming-shortcut-popularity-across-right

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The forecast record breaking 600 DM ridge next week in the Upper Midwest is yet another pattern since May that doesn’t fit the typical developing record super El Niño playbook.

 

 

Thanks, Chris. Wow!

1. Am I correct in assuming this 0Z Euro map referring to record high H5 for 6Z of 7/14/26 centered on the N Plains is for ALL dates rather than just for July 14th? 

2. Do you have a link to a source for record highest and lowest H5 for all dates for any location? 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

As described in the data information sheet, the +80N mean temperature index is not a climate data record. Since 2002, the daily mean temperatures are calculated from the operational atmosphere model at ECMWF, and changes in the operational model over time may affect the resulting temperature trends. The effect of this should be considered before making firm conclusions on basis of trends in the +80N climate indices.

 

 

Thanks, Chris.

 From that ECMWF “data information sheet” link, the 80N+ mean is strongly biased toward the portion closer to 90N and thus shouldn’t be used for determining actual mean. I’m educatedly guessing that that’s the reason for its cold bias. OTOH, it also says comparing one year to another, which I’ve also been doing, can still be done:

“Since the data are gridded, it is straightforward to deduce the average temperature North of 80 degree North.

However, since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual physical mean temperature of the arctic.

The 'plus 80 North mean temperature' graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.”

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not crazy about that ELI ....they state that it does a pretty poor job of identifying Modoki events and it absolutely does....it has 2023 similar to 2009 and 2004. It lost me right there. 

Two issues...first of all, the 165-170E Modoki range is too restrictive, which is likely why Modoki events are underrepresented in the data set. Secondly, it fails to distinguish the MC forcing of 2023 from Modoki forcing, which makes it no better than VP and OLR. I still like using the RONI for that distinction. 

Based on my own look just now at the comparison of anomalies in the 4 Nino regions, I have only 4 clearcut Modoki El Niño events since 1950:

1. 1968-9:

Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4

Nov………-0.1……+0.1….+0.5…+0.4

Dec………+0.2….+0.4….+0.7….+0.6

Jan………-0.2……+0.5…..+1.0….+0.9

Feb……..-0.8…….+0.3…..+1.1…….+1.1

Mar……..+0.3……+0.2……+0.5.…+0.6

2. 1977-8: not as Modoki as 68-9

Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4

Nov……….-0.5…..+0.2….+0.5…+0.3

Dec……….-0.6…..+0.3….+0.7….+0.4

Jan……….-0.4…..+0.1…..+0.6…..+0.4

Feb……….-0.4…...0.0……+0.3…..+0.2

Mar……….-1.2……-0.5…..-0.2…..-0.1

3. 2004-5: the most Modoki

Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4

Nov……...+0.7…..+0.6…+0.7….+0.8

Dec……..+0.4……+0.7….+0.7….+0.9

Jan……...0.0……..+0.3…..+0.7….+0.9

Feb……..-0.9…….-0.1…….+0.4…..+0.7

Mar……..-1.5…….-0.1…….+0.5……+0.6

4. 2014-5: 2nd most Modoki

Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4

Nov……….+0.8….+0.8…+0.8…+0.7

Dec………+0.4….+0.7…+0.7….+0.8

Jan………-0.2…..+0.4…+0.5….+0.8

Feb……..-0.5…..+0.1….+0.4….+0.9

Mar…….+0.1…..+0.1….+0.5…..+0.9

 So, based on the above, the most Modoki (W based) El Niño events since 1950 were (starting from strongest):

1. 2004-5

2. 2014-5

3. 1968-9

4. 1977-8

 Based on this, it appears to me that regarding wintry precip in El Niño seasons, the SE (based on ATL and RDU) seems to do somewhat better with C based (3.4 with clearly the warmest anomalies) than Modoki/W based. If I’m not mistaken, the NE tends to do better with W based (Modoki) over C based. Please correct me if that’s wrong. Interesting!
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii