GaWx

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

snowman made the stronger claim that +qbo, +enso decembers are a slam dunk always warmer than normal REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH (his exact words go read it). 1997/2004 are weakly +qbo. He's wrong.

 If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015.

Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now. 1997 is neutral QBO, not +QBO. So, it doesn’t need to be considered.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

He said the fact that we’ve had 6 +QBO/El Nino Decembers since 1980 is a lie

+QBO Nino Decembers: 1982 (warm temps), 1987 (warm), 1994 (warm), 2006 (warm), 2015 (warm), and 2018 (normal).

I count 1997’s 0.78 as neutral QBO

2004’s +2.45 and falling is pretty neutral

 So, I agree on 6 Nino Dec +QBOs since 1980. And all but one were warm. 2018 was NN. Favors warmth in Dec for sure!

And 1997/2004 (neutral QBO) weren’t warm.

Edit: Dec of 1957 also had +QBO and was warm! But Dec of 1963 (moderate Nino) and Dec of 1969 (weak Nino) were cold despite +QBO.

**Edit 2: If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015.

Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now.

@PhiEaglesfan712

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

NWS has ticked the point click down from max temps 105-106 to 101-102 depending on where you are in wake county. Still extreme but not record shattering as originally forecast 

This is likely at least partially tied to the hot biased GFS not being as hot as it was (never was believable in the first place due to bias). But still the Carolinas and Virginia are facing a dangerous heatwave and potential records.

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So you’re calling @GaWx a liar too? Moron

Thanks, Adam. Please explain to me how Marc is calling me a liar. I‘m not saying I don’t agree or disagree. I just want to know what you’re referring to. TIA.

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of Europe's record-setting June heatwave and the guidance suggesting that parts of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions could challenge July monthly and even all-time heat records, the climate change denial movement is desperately trying to frame the heat as ordinary summer heat. One example from a fossil fuel advocacy group's policy analyst in attacking a meteorologically sound post:

In the past week, Belarus, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Poland, and Slovakia set all-time national heat records. Austria, France (with 292 cities setting all-time records), Switzerland, and the United Kingdom set June monthly records. 

But to the ignorant, that's just "summer."

The latest guidance suggests that the July 1-4 period could see locations in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions challenge July monthly and even all-time records.

But again to the ignorant, that's just "summer."

And finally the ignorant policy analyst's claim that nationally-recognized meteorologist Jeff Berardelli should use the "correct terminology" instead of "heat dome," proves incorrect. It's the policy analyst who has no clue.

From the AMS Glossary of Meteorology:

Rather than making wild claims about subject matter with which he obviously is unfamiliar, he should brush up on the basics and put aside a belief system that is a repudiation of both science and reason. Arrogance and ignorance are a toxic combination for any profession. 

In any case, the extraordinary June heatwave is consistent with the warming global climate, including the rapid warming in Europe. No ranting, raving, or other forms of deflection or projection can erase what happened, much less undermine the science that is based on overwhelming and unequivocal evidence.

Hey Don,

  My point in thanking you for your post was agreeing with you about Chris Martz. Chris is both openly dismissing the contribution of AGW in these cases and is also dead wrong about the use of the term “heat dome”.

 But at the same time, I disagree with Jeff B. in calling this US heatwave one of the most “expansive”. It’s quite intense with record highs likely for a couple of days, but certainly not in a large portion of the country:

 This is the largest extent of the heat dome at H5 expected to produce record heat in and near the Mid-Atlantic states:

 Compare that to this significantly more expansive heatwave over the U.S.: 594 dm from E coast to Rockies and also N to MSP in addition to it peaking at ~600 vs the current one peaking at ~597:

 There are others, including the Dust Bowl years, especially July of 1936, that had some days of 100++ over a much larger portion of the U.S. In contrast, the current one is forecasted at its peak extent to have 100+ only mainly from E GA to the NYC/Hartford areas, which is not one of the most expansive in US history:

 Thunderstorms popped up along the Savannah River ~1-1.5 hours ago. They’re moving in a somewhat unusual SE direction and one is about to get going here. Some rain drops just started falling and I hear plenty of thunder.

Edit: It looks like I got ~0.2”.

3 hours ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Update:  22 inches as of 9:00 local time today at Darkhorse Lake.  I bet if this was July it could be a state record for the month.  

I’ve learned that any location with “horse” in the name, whether in Canada or the U.S., seems to be amazingly wintry:

-Deadhorse in Alaska

-Whitehorse in Yukon, Canada

-Darkhorse Lake and Hungry Horse in Montana

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I've noticed RAH does a poor job of picking up on the warm bias the GFS and Euro have. Always seem to be a few degrees warm

Thanks. But otoh, doesn’t the hot RDU sensor, itself, often end up verifying warmer unlike everywhere else?

On 6/27/2026 at 12:15 PM, BooneWX said:

A huge wildcard in the forecast. I think we’d all welcome the drought and heat relief it would bring. Google (GOAT) DeepMind is enticing. 

 The new (12Z) UKMET has nothing from the lemon designated as a weak TD, unlike the prior 3 full runs. However, Pivotal’s UK maps still have just about the same as a weak TD (a closed weak sfc low) along a similar track. It approaches SC late on 7/2 and comes into SC with hardly any circ. but with strong and persistent convection for S SC on 7/3-4 with a max of a whopping 9” 35 miles W of CHS before the convection heads NE up the Carolinas’ coast 7/5-6. That very heavy precip though is a major outlier vs other models and thus is highly unlikely as of now.

The new (12Z) UKMET has nothing designated as a weak TD, unlike the prior 3 full runs. However, Pivotal’s UK maps still have just about the same as a weak TD (a closed weak sfc low) along a similar track. It approaches SC late on 7/2 and comes into SC with hardly any circ. but with strong and persistent convection for S SC on 7/3-4 with a max of a whopping 9” 35 miles W of CHS before the convection heads NE up the Carolinas’ coast 7/5-6. That very heavy precip though is a major outlier vs other models and thus is highly unlikely as of now.

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The updated June monthly record for the UK during the most recent climate change-enhanced heatwave is 37.7C (99.9F).

Key contextual point from World Weather Attribution:

This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed...

 Absolutely, Don. It still would have been another historic heatwave even without AGW but not near as historic as it got due to the added effects from AGW. A larger portion of this extreme heat was very likely due to the pattern, itself, as opposed to AGW, itself. But AGW means a higher baseline as your quote said.
 

 The global baseline average has warmed ~2.5F since the late 1800s and not far from that even since just the mid-20th century if I’m not mistaken with the Arctic significantly higher and the tropics lower. How much do you figure the W Europe climate baseline has warmed?

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Region 1.2 is pretty volatile given it's so small, so it may be helpful to consider region 3.

 Agree 100% about the volatility of Nino 1+2, but I’m talking about Nino 3.4, for which the latest CFS has a record obliterating high in Nov followed by a record rate of cooling afterward. The CFS’ volatility is not unlike how 1+2 can often be! But it is out on its own with that rapid a cooling of 3.4. And I agree about the atmospheric lag, regardless.

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So far the CFS (relative) is the only model showing the extremely rapid drop. That said, once DT and JB see that, they will be all over it like white on rice. EVERY El Nino weakens dramatically as we go through Winter. And this one is forecast to remain strong through Feb or March, no different than the last 2 super El Nino's (1997-1998, 2015-2016). Plus it’s the atmospheric response to the Nino 3.4 anomaly that matters.

Just using 1997-98 and 2015-16 as the most recent super El Niño examples…both peaked the last week of November, both rapidly weakened throughout the winter (with the most rapid weakening occurring from Jan-Mar). 2015-16 was a start to finish +QBO winter, like this one is expected to be, 1997-98 started as a +QBO in 1997, then transitioned to a -QBO. DT and JB both argued that the rapid weakening in 2016 was going to result in some miracle winter comeback in the east. I remember January of 2016 vividly. They were screaming to the heavens that the El Niño was rapidly falling apart, the easterlies and trade winds were coming back with a vengeance and that the east was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with KU’s crippling the I-95 corridor in February and March. We all know how that worked out….they utterly embarrassed themselves. I had to do some research for the 1997-98 winter (DT wasn’t around back then), but I was able to find it. JB was still at Accuweather at the time and he argued the same thing he did in 2016. He was warning people in the east in January ‘98 not to “write off winter yet” and was hyping that there was going to be some miracle winter comeback in February and March because of the rapid weakening of the El Niño and the transition to a -QBO, which he said was going to result in high latitude blocking and a turn to arctic cold and big snowstorms up the east coast. Another epic fail

I agree with you on a lot of this, especially the late winter hype and the fact that the CFS is out on its own with this record rate of cooling. However, at the same time, I’ll say these things:

-It’s fair to post this aspect of the CFS as you did the first CFS post of the morning. Not only a record peak, but also a record cool off afterward (V shape).

-This cooling of 1.3 from Nov to Jan would be a new record cooling as the current record per ERSST monthlies is the 1.0 cooling from Nov to Jan of 2002-3

-Sometimes they’ve actually strengthened from Nov to Jan

On 6/25/2026 at 7:06 PM, GaWx said:

Some of this is almost certainly the GFS doing GFS kinds of things (i.e., too hot especially after day 5). The GFS does this frequently in summer. It could easily be 5-10 F too hot. I’d bet heavily against it being this hot. Quite hot is likely but not this hot.

 Bump to show that once again the GFS looks like it is going to end up quite a bit too hot:

 Here is an apples to apples comparison with 24 hour highs on the GFS runs of 12Z 6/25 vs 6Z 6/29: still miserable and dangerous for sure but most of Carolinas are 5-9F less hot! This is a common bias of the GFS in summer in the SE US on mainly sunny days.

12Z 6/25 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5:

6Z 6/29 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5:

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Based on how consistent the CFS has been, expect the Euro to increase to the +3.5 to +4 traditional ONI range also on its release coming for July 5th.

This makes sense given the all -time record SST warmth we are currently experiencing so early on.

Continuing WWBs will allow this event to keep intensifying at a record rate. The forecasts will be more accurate as get further past the spring predictability barrier. 
 

 

 

 

 This is again indicative of a not nearly as E based El Niño as 1997-8 with the slope from E to W not nearly as steep.

 The latest CFS has its warmest relative 3.4 monthly peak yet, way up at a record high obliterating +3.3 in Nov! But note that it also still cools it at a record rapid pace all the way down to +2.0 in Jan, +1.5 in Feb, and +1.0 in Mar:

@PhiEaglesfan712

 Updated relative weeklies:

Midweek date……..1+2………3……..3.4……..4

29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.0        0.9        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.8
 17JUN2026         2.4        1.3        1.1        0.8
 24JUN2026         2.5        1.5        1.2        0.6

 The CFS is still forecasting Nino 4 to reach a +2.5C monthly peak, which is not at all indicative of a relatively severely E based Nino like 1997, when it peaked at a mere +0.7C. It would even obliterate the monthly record peak of +1.5 of 2023-4 as well as the +1.4 of 2015-6, +1.1 of 2009-10, +0.9 of 1957-8, +0.9 of 1991-2, +0.8 of 1965-6, and +0.7 of 1972-3:

 The Arctic mean temp. N of 80N, helped by a +AO, still didn’t reach freezing as it actually cooled very slightly yesterday! The prior latest on record (back to 1958) to first exceed 0C was June 20th (2013). Will it finally exceed 0C before the end of the month? Time’s running out and the model consensus has BN temps persisting. It had come within 0.35C on June 27th and then yesterday fell a little to 0.47C away:

The UKMET keeps developing this into a weak TD and then dissipating it well offshore the SE US as it moves SW, WSW, W, and then WNW. I doubt this ever becomes a TD when considering other models:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.06.2026

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 32.5N 72.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2026 36 31.5N 71.9W 1012 26
0000UTC 01.07.2026 48 31.1N 72.1W 1011 26
1200UTC 01.07.2026 60 30.8N 73.0W 1012 23
0000UTC 02.07.2026 72 30.8N 74.3W 1013 21
1200UTC 02.07.2026 84 31.1N 75.8W 1015 18
0000UTC 03.07.2026 96 31.8N 77.2W 1016 18
1200UTC 03.07.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

12Z UKMET is fairly similar to the 0Z: TD that stays weak and then dissipates well offshore:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.06.2026

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.1N 72.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2026 48 32.1N 72.3W 1013 25
0000UTC 01.07.2026 60 31.4N 72.5W 1012 24
1200UTC 01.07.2026 72 31.0N 72.8W 1013 22
0000UTC 02.07.2026 84 31.2N 74.4W 1014 20
1200UTC 02.07.2026 96 31.6N 75.7W 1015 17
0000UTC 03.07.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

The 12Z UKMET had nothing of note, even less than yesterday’s 0Z’s very weak low hitting near Daytona Beach. But the new 0Z is the 1st of its runs with a TD transitioning from an extratropical low that forms on a front. It then moves WSW but remains weak and then gradually weakens followed by dissipation on Thu well off the SE coast:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.06.2026

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 32.1N 71.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2026 60 32.1N 70.7W 1011 26
0000UTC 01.07.2026 72 31.2N 71.3W 1012 25
1200UTC 01.07.2026 84 30.4N 71.5W 1013 25
0000UTC 02.07.2026 96 30.5N 72.7W 1015 22
1200UTC 02.07.2026 108 30.6N 74.3W 1016 16
0000UTC 03.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The values show -PNA for 09-10, unless this whole thing is wrong: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 Those are the NAO values, not PNAs.

 Per DMI, the daily mean temp in the Arctic N of 80N has still not reached 0C! As of today (6/27), it’s still barely <0C at -0.35C:

 Going all of the way back to 1958, the previous latest to first exceed 0C was a full week earlier, June 20th, and that was in 2013:

 So, even if it finally exceeds 0C tomorrow, that would still be a whopping 8 days later than the previous latest on record of June 20th! I checked every year.

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php