GaWx

Josh is in Pensacola as he chose Isaias over Simon but wishes there were two of him so they could chase both lol:
 

https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2108365382130045125
 

27 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

No, Cpc uses roni instead of oni because climate change was interfering with the enso signal they made a purposeful effort to remove cc. In fact climate change probably weakened this el nino by keeping the wpac warmer then it normally would be during this strong of a nino  that likely prevented as strong ( even if its still be very strong and in many ways record breaking) of a eastward shift in deep convection which has thus meant that while the trade winds have been extremely weak or reversed they are running only slightly ahead of 1997 despite nino 3.4 itself running much higher. Now did climate change raise nino 3.4 sst sure, but because the tropics have warmed the sst threshold for deep convection ( and thus heat distribution thru latent heating) has gone up meaning cc does not mean more heat is being disturbed in the main way enso actually impacts our weather. 

 I cannot overemphasize how important what I bolded above is. This idea is well explained at the link below, which I recently posted:

Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like it's struggling. What else do you expect from #2026?

That’s good news if it holds for those threatened. Hopefully shear will do its thing and keep it struggling. But it looks like it will probably still be a hurricane when it comes in and thus be no picnic for them.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The September statewide data for Texas is now in. The heat of September 2026 made a mockery of the State's prior monthly record. September 2026 finished with a statewide mean temperature of 84.1°. 2023, the prior record, was left in the distant dust with a relatively cool 81.8°. September 2019 was further back in third with a mean temperature of 81.5°.

Do you have it for OK?

5 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

The hurricane was declared as such at 11:30pm eastern on 10/7 after a Hurricane Hunters pass. So it’s a little dicey.

 

Of course there’s a good chance 1905 had a hurricane earlier in their season that we didn’t detect

Technically according to this image, it was a H by 0Z on 10/8 in 1905 or 7PM EST on 10/7. So, that means 2026 was a little later if you go by this:

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought we tied the record of 10/8 from 1851.

No, it’s the latest 1st H since 1851, inclusive. That’s the first year of these tracks at the NHC site.

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

But this is the latest forming first hurricane of season ever?

Yeah although 1905 was about as late:

Tropical Storm watches well inland in AL/GA:

 

This is for way up in C AL including Birmingham and Tuscaloosa:

**TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA** 

* STORM INFORMATION:   - ABOUT 710 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM AL OR ABOUT 640   MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY AL   - 23.7N 90.2W   - STORM INTENSITY 85 MPH   - MOVEMENT EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH    

SITUATION OVERVIEW   ------------------     HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF   COAST, MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40   TO 50 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN THE   POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. RAINFALL   AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES   WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN   AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY   DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ALONG AND EAST OF THE   TRACK ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF   INTERSTATE 65. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Can you tell me what were other times that a hurricane formed in that general area after start of October?

Thanks 

Plenty. You can find them here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
 
...ISAIAS STRONGER...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION 
TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 90.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

————————

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Isaias is strengthening in an environment of moderate vertical wind 
shear. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that the central pressure continues to fall and the 
maximum winds are now near 75 kt. The center of the hurricane is 
near the southwestern side of a Central Dense Overcast feature, and 
some convective banding features are evident over the eastern 
portion of the circulation. Additional aircraft reconnaissance 
missions are scheduled for today, tonight, and Friday, so we will 
have close monitoring of the intensity of the system up until 
landfall.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isais 
continues on a generally east-northward track with an initial 
motion of about 060/9 kt. During the next 36 hours, the hurricane 
should gradually turn toward the northeast and north as it moves 
between a ridge extending from the Bahamas across the Florida 
Peninsula and a zonally-oriented mid-level trough near the 
northwestern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of the 
hurricane is forecast to move across the east-central to 
northeastern Gulf coast in 36-42 hours. Thereafter, the weakening 
cyclone should move over the southeastern United States bringing 
strong winds well inland. The track guidance has not changed much 
for this advisory cycle and the official forecast is similar to that 
of the previous advisory.

The intensity forecast up to landfall is somewhat challenging. 
On the one hand, the hurricane should move over waters of high 
oceanic heat content and within a fairly moist air mass through 
tomorrow. On the other hand, the SHIPS model input parameters show 
a significant increase in vertical wind shear, particularly when 
Isais nears the coast. Regarding, the shorter-term intensity 
forecast, a recent WSFM microwave satellite image at 37 GHz 
frequency shows a closed ring around the eye. This is typically a 
harbinger of rapid intensification. The 12-hour forecast does show 
a relatively large increase in strength, but in view of the 
expected stronger shear in 24-36 hours, some decrease in intensity 
is indicated as Isaias approaches the coast. Regardless, Isaias is 
expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and 
gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the 
anticipated expansion of the wind field and accelerating forward 
speed of the storm.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 23.7N  90.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 24.9N  89.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 27.1N  87.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 29.6N  87.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 32.3N  87.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  11/0000Z 34.6N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  11/1200Z 36.5N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

 So did forky, who has special privileges and staff powers for who knows what reason, just remove the Super El Nino banter thread that I posted a link to 30 minutes earlier? Or did he just remove my ability to view it?

 It all of the sudden now shows this when I view the link to the Banter thread that I provided in my prior post:

Sorry, we can't show this content because you do not have permission to see it.

Beautiful! Did anyone of note predict this? At a minimum, the Arctic ice news isn’t all bad right now and that’s putting it mildly:

 The link below is to the banter thread, which hasn’t had a post since Sept 28th while there have been dozens of near worthless banter posts clogging up this thread with poop since then making it harder for readers to find the much higher quality posts. How does that make sense?

12Z UKMET is at its strongest of any run so far at landfall with 979 mb at 12Z on Sat at AL/MS border. Then it heads N along the border followed by NNW/NW into MS. The center is in NW MS as of GA/AL gametime. Tornadoes look like a problem in much of N FL/AL/GA while heavy rain and strong winds hit N MS/Memphis area Sat afternoon/evening due to the tightest gradient in that area at that time. Interesting.

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

it’s giving you the historical ERA 5 reanalysis average up until 5/1/27. You’ll notice all the lines converge together starting between march and april because a) the PV becomes weaker and less variable by the spring and b) models tend to default to climatology very far out. So the ensemble forecast mean (black) will start to closely match the hindcast climate mean (red) and ERA5 mean (blue) between March and April. 

 

Also it’s important to note the red line being lower than the blue line between Dec and March. What that’s telling you is that when the model tried to reconstruct a hindcast of past years, it was forecasting a weaker PV than the actual ERA5 reanalysis. So it’s saying the model has a weak PV bias in its forecasts during the heart of winter. 

Thanks. So, what does all of this say in regard to the ECMWF’s forecasted weaker than avg SPV in Jan/Feb? Is that a legit signal of a likely weaker than normal SPV then?

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any comments about what this graph implies?

 Why is prog of ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than prog of ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Is ERA5 its own projection model? Any explanation would be appreciated.

 
 Everything Daniel Swain says makes sense. ONI is essentially the sum of ENSO and GW, which is what I’ve been saying and is literally what he says here:

“absolute (ONI) index, which includes climate warming signal…”

 If you want to measure the pure ENSO signal, itself, and compare that to the pure ENSO signal of past events, the recommendation is to use RONI as NOAA suggests in their official RONI table going back to 1950.
 
 I understand that warmer air holds more water vapor and thus allows for increased rainfall. Thus, ONI better measures increased absolute warmth/rainfall since it adds the GW component to the ENSO component.

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

ERA5 is not a prognosis, it’s a reanalysis of the daily mean averaged out over several decades (i think it starts 1940 but someone can correct me here). The black is the actual forecast ensemble mean 

Thanks. But with ERA5 not being a prognosis, why is its blue line going all of the way til 5/1/27?

 Any comments about what this graph implies?

 Why is prog of ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than prog of ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Is ERA5 its own projection model? Any explanation would be appreciated.

14 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Still waiting on that big Nino 1+2 drop modeled by the CFSv2. Any day now. 

 

The CFS keeps missing too low and thus readjusting Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 higher while doing pretty much the opposite for 3.4 and 4 thus making it more and more E based from the already record E basedness.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Starting to see +12C subsurface anomalies as Nino 3.4 reaches +3.4 for the first time.

 

 
This is the official RONI version of yours, which takes into account the amount of GW between Ninos (specifically as regards the warming of the global tropical SSTs) and thus gives a better comparison of Nino strength from Nino to Nino: 26 has been record warmest since early Aug and currently is 0.13 warmer than 97, 0.47 warmer than 82, .61 warmer than 15, and 1.47 warmer than 23:

 Here’s the new Euro RONI prog: 26-7 remains strongest, even warmer than the rapidly warming late peaking 82-3 although only barely warmer than 83 in Jan:

0Z Euro has landfall near Biloxi ~8AM CDT Sat at 986 mb.

The 0Z UKMET landfalls at Mobile at 987 mb ~4AM CDT Sat, which is weaker than its lowest SLP of 978 mb 12 hours earlier in the N Gulf. The center then moves N over W AL before turning left into EC MS and then NE MS. Beneficial rains fall over much of the SE.

15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

MEI updated and has 2.4 for AS.

That’s interesting that it dropped slightly. But it’s still a record high back to 1979 for AS. For all bimonthlies, the record high is 2.9 (AM of 1983).

Very nice ice!

12Z UKMET is strongest run yet with a H (65 knots/983 mb) hitting Biloxi followed by a move N into MS:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.6N 93.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2026 24 21.6N 93.7W 1005 29
0000UTC 08.10.2026 36 22.0N 93.2W 1003 28
1200UTC 08.10.2026 48 22.6N 92.4W 1000 35
0000UTC 09.10.2026 60 22.7N 90.9W 999 31
1200UTC 09.10.2026 72 24.6N 89.6W 995 41
0000UTC 10.10.2026 84 26.4N 89.2W 992 45
1200UTC 10.10.2026 96 29.2N 88.7W 983 65
0000UTC 11.10.2026 108 32.3N 90.0W 994 26
1200UTC 11.10.2026 120 33.4N 90.4W 1003 27
0000UTC 12.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING