GaWx

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

These annual ENSO threads have always included US winter forecast discussion.

14 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

New Canadian run has a nice Summer for me - wet and cool, especially June/July. Monsoon very strong for Mexico and the SW US.

Cold winter for the eastern US depicted, although Jan is pretty cold in most of the country. Gulf of Alaska low is kind of...south of the Gulf of Alaska.

 The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo:

Old:

New:

It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth:

Old:

New:

1 hour ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Saw several posts today calling for a super El Nino this summer. Which...haven't most of them been strong (or beyond strong) over the past few years, the ones we've had????

1. 2023 Nino peaked at near moderate/strong border based on RONI. RONI (relative ONI), unlike the traditional straight ONI, takes into account the warming surrounding tropical waters from global warming. RONI has been on avg ~0.5C cooler than ONI in recent years. So, whereas 2023 ONI peaked at border super/strong ~+2.0C, RONI peaked at only ~+1.5C (not super).

2. 2018-9 was weak Niño.

3. 2015-6 was the last true super-Nino.

4. 2014-5 was weak Nino.

For those who aren’t aware of this,  ENSO is followed daily at this informative thread:

 Rain started here ~45 minutes ago and it has gotten heavy at times as boundaries collide over this area per radar. 
This is a really nice rain that I’m thinking will approach or just exceed 1” and could go a good ways up from there if this continues awhile. There’s been no thunder/lightning associated with this.

 Update at 7:30PM: rain is still falling (going on 1.5 hours) and there have been additional heavy periods.
As a result, I’m very likely near 2” at a minimum and counting! That makes this the best rain in months! My street drains are handling this well. In the past with a rain of this magnitude, it would typically flood. Thus I think the city digging the nearby ditches deeper is helping the flow into the drains!

*This post specifically only addresses the CONUS*
—————————
 
 It only takes one impact to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving.

 I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.

High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12

July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)

August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til later

June 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til later

Sept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)

June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til later

June 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til later

July 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til later

Sept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til later

August 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til later

Oct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NE

Sept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coast

Oct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US
——————

- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.

-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.

-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times.

 Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

17 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

97-98 the coast got shut out but inland didn't do that bad..we had a dusting of snow a few days after Christmas..it was warm like all Super Nino's are. 82-83 had a snow event in middle of December..65 degrees Chistmas day and a blizzard in February..15-6 had a blowtorch December..70 degrees Christmas day and a historic blizzard 4 weeks later..So yes it will be warm but there will be winter weather.

 I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy.

 I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Peruvian government is confirming SST anomalies of over +5C off their coast (ENSO region 1+2)
 

Latest OISST 1+2 anomaly is +2.5C (non-relative). That tells me that relative 1+2 is at a pretty hefty ~+2.0:

I’ve gotten some rain from thunderstorms this evening with possibly more to come. It hasn’t been that much so far (<0.25” I think). I’ll get the totals in the morning.

Edit: I’ve got yesterday’s rains near 0.20” (5/30) and only a T so far today (5/31 through 4:20PM). That gets me to ~2.7” MTD. Can I get to 3” by day’s end?

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That is a really really rough look for the Atlantic and MDR especially. Stability/subsidence is going to be a massive issue in the tropical Atlantic this year. 

Levi Cowan gives great updates. Here’s the 1st:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/2060836481128874201
 

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Legit Strong Nino going

 

30 May 2026	1012.24	1014.15	-26.33	-13.17	-5.29
29 May 2026	1011.31	1014.15	-33.46	-12.63	-4.77
28 May 2026	1012.81	1014.30	-23.11

 

Again, lowest 2-month SOI likely in 10 years. March's +7 really came back around. It had never been above +2.3 in March in a developing Strong+ Nino before, guess it didn't matter too much, except showing general SOI tendency to not really take off like SSTA, that has been present in the 2020s. 

 Based on the past after strong -SOI periods, 3.4 SSTs tend to start warming ~10-24 days after the start of these periods. The last 20 days have averaged way down at -18 (and it hasn’t yet shown it is ending soon). Thus I’m expecting 3.4 to resume good warming at almost anytime after the last 2 weeks of little change. Plus the models have strong warming resuming in June. Thus I expect 3.4 to be several 10ths warmer by a week from now.

Check out the 40s DPs in RDU/GSO!

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And this is before the new WWB (which has just begun), ERW and subsequent DWKW has a chance to do their dirty work with strengthening this event further

 Today’s CFS has a record high RONI starting in JAS and going through NDJ before dropping at a record quick pace to only 3rd highest in DJF. I’m talking about records for each respective 3 month period, not overall.

 On monthly basis, it has records Jul-Dec! But then Jan falls so fast that it is then 0.5 cooler than ‘83 and is only 6th warmest behind ‘83, ‘92, ‘98, ‘58, and ,’16. Feb also is 6th warmest with it a whopping 0.63 cooler than ‘92! 

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

You’ve had more this week than I’ve picked up last 4 months combined 

 Suzook had more rain this week than I’ve had in ‘26!

4/13/26 CFS RONI peak +2 (OND):

5/30/26 CFS RONI peak just under +3! Record peak is +2.5:

5/30 CFS DJF +2.22. That wouldn’t be record for DJF as ‘83 +2.5 and ‘92 +2.3. So, it’s actually showing a record rapid cooldown OND to DJF of 0.75 vs current record of 0.62 (2002-3).

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I feel we want a high RONI during an El Nino event....the RONI represents a spectrum, or continuum if you will, of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific versus the baseline trend that is more reflective of CC, which is cool ENSO like. I think folks obfuscate this with the MEI, which simply measures the intensity of the warm ENSO coupling. RONI is not so much about the intensity of the coupling, but the war waged between ENSO and competing hemispheric forces.

 Besides the MEI, I feel that the SOI (which may be part of the MEI…Is it?) remains a good measure of the phase and strength of ENSO because it is a calculation based on SLP differences between two points thousands of miles apart and thus doesn’t seem to be influenced by CC. In essence a relative SOI is likely not needed. Of course, because it is so volatile and subject to day to day randomness, it’s best looked at in 30+ day averages.

 Then again, if, say avg. Australian SLPs have been affected by CV differently from how Tahiti SLPs have been affected by CC, then even SOIs would need an adjustment.

Other opinions?

 The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep northern piedmont missed out, about the only area in the entire region that did. Looks quite dry going forward too

 Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June:

2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN

3rd week in June: wetter than normal:

2 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

My calculation has -1.18 for the PDO, so in line with WCS. It's definitely been dropping the last few weeks. But the AMO is looking solidly negative now, so that is new compared to recent history. 

You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.

On 5/27/2026 at 12:28 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Almost time for me to end my tropical hibernation lol.

At the very least the SE should get come much needed rain in the coming weeks. 

The operational GFS is doing its usual nonsense but the ensemble signal on the GEFS/EPS should raise an eyebrow. This is a good early season test for AI models like the GDM on whether it can accurately sniff out these marginal early season signals/false alarms. 

 The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Starting to see the seasonal -PDO drop heading into summer which has been common during the 2020s.

 

Also, keep in mind that a -1.40 WCS daily PDO is generally equivalent to a sub-2 NOAA daily PDO. This differential has been the case since I started following WCS daily PDOs years ago.

Check out this 19 day sub -5 SOI streak along with today’s -33.46 being 2nd most negative (barely missing 1st) so far this year. Note that Darwin’s higher than avg SLP for May has the last 10 days finally joined Tahiti’s lows to contribute. Darwin SLPs look to remain on the high side at least over the next week or so per models:

2026 131 1012.47 1012.15   -9.25
2026 132 1011.99 1012.00  -11.78
2026 133 1010.40 1010.50  -12.47
2026 134 1009.81 1010.30  -15.45
2026 135 1009.15 1010.00  -18.21
2026 136 1008.21 1009.70  -23.11
2026 137 1007.49 1009.55  -27.48
2026 138 1009.98 1009.25   -6.11
2026 139 1011.63 1010.85   -5.73
2026 140 1012.01 1012.45  -15.07
2026 141 1010.85 1013.05  -28.55
2026 142 1012.15 1013.20  -19.74
2026 143 1011.70 1012.55  -18.21
2026 144 1010.19 1012.80  -31.69
2026 145 1011.06 1012.85  -25.41
2026 146 1013.30 1012.45   -5.19
2026 147 1013.80 1013.10   -6.34
2026 148 1012.81 1014.30  -23.11
2026 149 1011.31 1014.15  -33.46

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Either way the AAM is going positive

It’s already positive (~+1.7)as per the latest CFSv2 initialization posted above. That was well predicted on that insane 0Z 5/25 run as one can see.

 Not surprisingly being that the crazy high 0Z 5/25/26 run was likely the strongest CFSv2 ensemble mean +AAM prog since at least 2023, it has come way down since. As I’ve said a number of times, it’s the CFSv2 long range and thus while worth following and posting, s/b taken with a huge grain.

0Z 5/25/26 run: mean peak ~+3.5 late June!

12Z 5/28/26 run: mean peak way down to only ~+1 in late June: like night and day!

 Holy cow!! I just got home fortunately. Before that: Roads flooded, visibility near 0, driving no faster than 30 mph on the highway, flashers blinking….but made it! But something I’ve never seen before happened: water started dripping from between the top of the windshield and the roof! Fortunately I had a small towel to dry most of it up pretty quickly once I got home. After examining from the outside, I could see a portion of the rubber molding around the top of the windshield is sticking up a little.

  The great news: I got ~1” of rain, my heaviest since May 2nd! The recently redug ditches nearby handled the heavy rain quite well, keeping my street from flooding. I had complained to the city about it flooding in all heavy rains. Sometimes it pays to make phone calls.

 The radar showed what almost looked like a mini circulation.