GaWx

Here we go folks. June 2nd was the 2nd day in a row of a steep warming in 3.4 (another 0.09) (RONI up to ~+0.7C). That makes it a two day warming total of 0.18C! It hasn’t warmed at this rate since way back in mid-April. A notable but delayed warming after the start of a long and strong -SOI period is common and was in addition to model hints why I said on Monday before this two day rise to expect after the prior 15 day pause next week’s weekly 3.4 update to be a few ticks warmer:

This morning was a refreshing low of 60 at KSAV and 64 at KSVN. Dewpoints are in the very nice/rare for June mid 40s. So, needless to say, I intend to walk at one of the parks this evening as I did yesterday.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Since 1980, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are an extremely strong tendency for warmth. I believe there have been 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers in the last 46 years and every one of them were warm if I’m not mistaken

I also have 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers since 1980:

1982, 1987, 1994, 2006, 2015, 2018

I’m counting the barely positive QBOs of 1997 and 2004 as neutral QBO. Otherwise there’d be 8.

 The only one of the 6 that wasn’t warm in the E US was 2018, which was NN to slightly AN in the E US. So, it appears to be a pretty good correlation although the sample size is pretty small.

Aside: Today’s SOI was the most negative so far this year at -34.80.

1 hour ago, roardog said:

So does a Modoki just have to have lower anomalies in 3 and 1+2 than in 3.4 and 4 or does 1+2 need to be negative? I feel like that’s the same scenario just opposite. 

Lower anomalies in 3/1+2 than 3.4/4. The bigger/smaller the differential, the stronger/weaker the Modoki.

54 minutes ago, roardog said:

A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year. 

I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.

 There was just some very light rain today (a T). It was windy from the E as cooler, drier air was coming in. With temps down to the mid 70s, the steady breeze, and dewpoints in the mid 50s, it easily felt good enough to walk at the park for the first time in nearly 2 weeks despite a few rain drops.

OISST rose on June 1st a whopping ~0.09C, which is the largest gain in one day since way back on April 13th! Is this just the start of an overall big warming? Based on the recent SOI and models, I think it is:

Latest CFS run’s peak: +3.0 (record is 1982’s +2.5). Whereas this could easily be overdone based on the past, getting at least a 1982 like record peak of +2.5 is likely at this point.
 
 This has June at +1.0. With today near +0.6, there’s going to need to be pretty rapid warming within the next couple of weeks to keep up with this. Based on the recent/current strong -SOI, this is quite doable as of now:

Nino 3.4 was unchanged at +0.5 in yesterday’s release. The other 3 regions warmed 0.1. I’m expecting 3.4 to be a few ticks warmer in the next weekly release as a typical delayed reaction to the start of the SOI drop a couple of weeks ago. 
 

 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. 
 

Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

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Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm.

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬

 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 20h

Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record.

 

2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026

Everybody

Thanks, Chris.

 Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.

 Latest CFS DJF fits super Nino climo well unlike what Cansips is still showing, which may be related to it having Modoki:

CFS DJF: looks like what one would expect with super-Nino:

Cansips DJF: still looks off but may be due to it having Modoki

19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

Cansips is still going full Modoki unlike Euro and CFS. But I think it may have a Modoki bias based on at least one previous year.

Latest Cansips DJF has warmest SST anomalies over W region 3.4/region 4: (**corrected** as I had region 3 typo)

*Edited for typo

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Does the difference matter at that temp? 97-98 could’ve easily produced a blizzard just like 15-16. Maybe just less cold shots. 

Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

A +2.7°C RONI peak may be comparable to 1982 in relative ENSO strength, but a +3.3°C ONI peak would still be physically meaningful because it reflects the actual SST anomaly humans, ecosystems, and the atmosphere experience. ONI already uses a rolling 30-year climatology updated every five years. So why is RONI still ~0.6°C lower? Because the entire tropical ocean background is running absurdly warm even versus the recent baseline.

I’ll give an extreme hypothetical case. Let’s say ONI were +3.3C and RONI were 0C because the tropical oceans were insanely warm. So, in other words, everything in and also around Nino 3.4 as well as the other tropical waters is insanely warm. Then wouldn’t that mean essentially no Nino SST pattern/no contrast vs surrounding waters existing to then lead to typical Nino atmospheric responses? That’s my understanding about the RONI idea.

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Actually, this post by Jeff B. is somewhat misleading imho as a monthly RONI peak of +2.7C wouldn’t be any stronger than 1982. Yes, an ONI monthly peak of +3.3C would by far be the strongest as he said. But RONI is more representative of the El Niño surge, itself, divorced from the CC contribution.

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I do. 

 But what’s mysterious is that there have been numerous chilly winter maps posted for this and past winters with many significantly colder than this and without objection. Yes, this is colder than the prior month’s run, which was my main point, but it’s still NN in the E US. The coldest is only 0.5C BN, which is NN. Granted it’s 1981-2010 climo, but that’s still NN. So, it’s not even a cold map there!

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And if I dared to post a torch winter run in this dedicated ENSO thread you would be on me like white on rice

 Torch, cold, in between, or whatever winter runs have been an integral part of these annual threads for as long as I can remember. Without them, these ENSO titled threads would be much quieter. I’ve personally posted a good # of winter runs (often with caveats like “fwiw” due to model unreliability/biases) in every one of these threads whether mild, cold, or whatever without anyone including you ever having a problem with the posts. I don’t understand why you out of the blue made a big deal just after I posted the latest Cansips maps as a follow-up to raindance’s post. To me it was a perfect example of this:

 I ended up with ~2” yesterday evening from rain (no thunder) that lasted for hours with few breaks. The heaviest was during early evening as I posted about (~6-7:30PM). This 2” is my heaviest daily since 8/22/25, when I also had ~2” during the evening!

 That brings me to ~4.7” for May, ~1” above normal, with ~3.2” of this May 28-31. It’s easily my wettest month since August of ‘25.

 My ‘26 prediction is for 8/4/1 with 52 ACE.
 
 @ineedsnowpredicted 11/4/2.

 
 Anyone else? If we get enough, we could make this into a simple little fun contest. But then I’d prefer all picks get posted by Friday or so.

June

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.1        2.4      1.2      3.0      1.4     0.8    2.8     2.3     1.8

100      95       94      94      94      98      98      115     89

posted 1:05 AM EDT June 1st

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

These annual ENSO threads have always included US winter forecast discussion.

14 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

New Canadian run has a nice Summer for me - wet and cool, especially June/July. Monsoon very strong for Mexico and the SW US.

Cold winter for the eastern US depicted, although Jan is pretty cold in most of the country. Gulf of Alaska low is kind of...south of the Gulf of Alaska.

 The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo:

Old:

New:

It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth:

Old:

New:

1 hour ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Saw several posts today calling for a super El Nino this summer. Which...haven't most of them been strong (or beyond strong) over the past few years, the ones we've had????

1. 2023 Nino peaked at near moderate/strong border based on RONI. RONI (relative ONI), unlike the traditional straight ONI, takes into account the warming surrounding tropical waters from global warming. RONI has been on avg ~0.5C cooler than ONI in recent years. So, whereas 2023 ONI peaked at border super/strong ~+2.0C, RONI peaked at only ~+1.5C (not super).

2. 2018-9 was weak Niño.

3. 2015-6 was the last true super-Nino.

4. 2014-5 was weak Nino.

For those who aren’t aware of this,  ENSO is followed daily at this informative thread:

 Rain started here ~45 minutes ago and it has gotten heavy at times as boundaries collide over this area per radar. 
This is a really nice rain that I’m thinking will approach or just exceed 1” and could go a good ways up from there if this continues awhile. There’s been no thunder/lightning associated with this.

 Update at 7:30PM: rain is still falling (going on 1.5 hours) and there have been additional heavy periods.
As a result, I’m very likely near 2” at a minimum and counting! That makes this the best rain in months! My street drains are handling this well. In the past with a rain of this magnitude, it would typically flood. Thus I think the city digging the nearby ditches deeper is helping the flow into the drains!