GaWx

 I took my first evening walk at the park of the season in lieu of the treadmill as a result of the cool and windy weather thanks to the strong wedge. It was only in the mid 60s along with winds gusting as high as ~25 mph. Due to dewpoints of 60, the RH was high. But the wind combined with the coolness made it feel great! Also, there was intermittent drizzle, which was unexpected and made it feel even cooler.

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If it wasn’t for the stable environment surrounding Fay now we’d have a mid latitude microcane. Decent looking system on visible but very clearly limited by dry air surrounding it 

Check out the 12Z UKMET: gets her all the way to 23.7N, 56.4W and still moving WSW not too far N of the MDR:

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 41.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2026 0 30.0N 41.2W 1014 28
0000UTC 25.09.2026 12 30.2N 42.1W 1015 25
1200UTC 25.09.2026 24 30.3N 43.1W 1015 27
0000UTC 26.09.2026 36 30.3N 43.7W 1015 25
1200UTC 26.09.2026 48 30.2N 44.4W 1014 26
0000UTC 27.09.2026 60 30.2N 44.8W 1016 21
1200UTC 27.09.2026 72 30.1N 44.8W 1015 22
0000UTC 28.09.2026 84 29.8N 44.6W 1016 20
1200UTC 28.09.2026 96 28.6N 44.9W 1016 22
0000UTC 29.09.2026 108 27.4N 46.0W 1014 23
1200UTC 29.09.2026 120 26.2N 47.6W 1013 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 132 24.9N 49.6W 1012 26
1200UTC 30.09.2026 144 24.2N 52.0W 1011 29
0000UTC 01.10.2026 156 23.8N 54.3W 1011 27
1200UTC 01.10.2026 168 23.7N 56.4W 1012 27

This is for Nolo, which is a threat to the Big Island of Hawaii:

000
WTPA42 PHFO 241450
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026

Satellite images indicate that Nolo is gradually becoming better
organized, with very deep convection in a curved band on the
southern and western side of the circulation. Additionally, a GPM
pass from overnight indicated that an inner core is forming,
although the eastern side is fragmented. Intensity estimates are
rising, and the current wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of
the lower subjective and higher objective values.

Nolo has not moved much during the last several hours but should
begin to move northward and north-northeastward later today due to
a mid-latitude trough dropping over the northwestern Hawaiian
Islands. The trough is forecast to move westward by Saturday with
a building ridge north of the main Hawaiian Islands, causing a
sharp westward turn this weekend. The big question is how close
does Nolo get before making that turn, with notable run-to-run
inconsistencies in much of the guidance. Similar to the last
cycle, the bulk of the models have shifted slightly northward, and
the new NHC forecast is moved in that direction. This remains a 
more uncertain forecast than normal given the large unresolved
north-south spread, with other possible complicating terrain 
influences of the Big Island (like we saw with Hurricane Lala last 
month). Therefore, the long-range portion of the forecast is 
essentially unchanged.

With the formation of an inner core, conditions appear to be coming
together for rapid intensification given the other conducive
environmental factors of warm SSTs, low shear and high mid-level
moisture. Nolo is likely to become a hurricane by tonight and 
reach major hurricane strength as it nears the Big Island on 
Saturday. The new forecast is raised from the previous one, just 
below the HCCA aid, which has done well this year in these 
strengthening episodes. Note that a track closer to the Big Island 
could substantially increase the threat of damaging winds, 
particularly over higher terrain, along exposed ridges, and in areas 
downwind of the ridges.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.9N 156.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.2N 156.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.1N 155.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.1N 155.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.8N 155.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 18.0N 156.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.1N 158.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 19.0N 162.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.6N 164.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Not only has Fay come back from the dead, for now, at least, a small ULAC has positoned right over top of the system. Shear has dropped significantly. The TC is embedded in a rather dry environment. As the NHC noted in their discussion, this may prevent any significant intensification. Despite the less than ideal moisture environment, convection has managed to blossom this morning. Might we get a surprise? It has an established vortex and 36-48 hours to play with before shear reinvades.

From NHC:

Resilient Fay has strengthened this morning. Deep convective
curved bands have developed both on the west and east sides of the
cyclone, and a small cold cloud top deep burst of convection is
persisting over the surface center. Based on the improved cloud
pattern and an increase in the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimated from TAFB, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

Fay remains over warm ocean waters and a favorable upper-level wind
environment. Only a relatively stable, dry surrounding atmosphere
is preventing Fay from strengthening significantly. By the weekend,
deep-layer shear is expected to increase, which should induce a
weakening trend. Subsequently, Fay is forecast to degenerate into 
a remnant low.

Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/5 kt.
This general motion should continue with a slight reduction
in forward speed through dissipation on Sunday. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the
skilled HFIP HCCA and GDMI TC ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 29.8N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 29.8N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 29.7N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 29.6N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 29.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 29.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No. This is a nasty nor’easter. It reminds me of March 2010, if you’re old enough to remember that one.

When was the comparable last nasty cold core nor’easter that occurred in your area as early as late Sept? The ones I recall off the top of my head for your area waited at least til Oct and were mainly in the latter half of Oct to boot.

*Fwiw* recent 3 day (12 run) CFSv2 runs for Feb have been cooling back down again. The coldest I’ve seen was the very cold Aug 7-9th mean. The warmest was the recently posted Sep 16-18th mean. The newest (Sep 21-23rd) is right in between those:

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It will have some tropical characteristics, but it’s generated from baroclinic forcing. There might appear to be an eye, but that’s just dry air near the center. It’s a typical nor’easter that’s being enhanced because of warm SST and proximity to the Gulf Stream. So while it might look like a tropical storm the physics behind it are far different. 

Thanks. Do you see it having a chance to transition from cold core, which we all agree it will start as, to ST status?

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

 

 

 

 Then the NHC should be adding it to its TWOs since those address the chance for both T and ST development. Adding it to its TWOs has been suggested by both JB and @vortex95

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s not warm core and anyone that says it is is just hyping. Warm core cyclones don’t behave like this. 

This from the 0Z Euro suite per pro met@vortex95shows a 70-80% chance for tropical development! How do you explain this?

0Z UKMET goes NNE to eastern end of LI and then into SE New England while weakening substantially Mon-Tue

55 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

He’s a tool. The reason it weakens is because it  becomes vertically stacked and occludes, because it’s cold core. Tropical systems don’t weaken when they become stacked.

Thanks. But how do you explain a 1000/500 mb thickness max of >576 dm and 700 mb height max both at the center if it is cold core? That almost has to be warm core.

 Joe Bastardi, who I often don’t agree with, continues to insist this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it thus should be named. He says the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving it a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm (well above 79F) due largely to GW.

 Per JB, evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, he posted the Euro having a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this projected weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. He said tides may go as high as 3-6 feet AN at NYC!

 Does anyone here recall a purely cold-core nor’easter in this region this early in the fall? Aren’t those usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm?

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Concerning the E Coast storm development and possible ST development...

I wanted to share my thoughts and throw this out there for food for thought.
 

Sometimes in forecast meteorology you have to think proactively in the abstract at time for those potential outlier events, otherwise you can get "caught behind the 8-ball," playing catch-up and making excuses.  This current E Coast storm situation reminds me a bit of Sandy's situation, except reversed!  A non-tropical low possibly becoming ST near the E Coast and how can it be handled.

I may be reaching a bit here, but I think this particular storm situation warrants some added attention.

ECMWF and UKMET suggest ST transition is possible off the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast.  Clear warm core to 500 and SSTs easily are in range.  Phase diagrams show a fairly good symmetric warm core.

NHC does not even mention it on the 7-day TWO?  I find this a bit odd.  Many, many times they will put in something even if the slightest chance ST development for systems like this.  Just b/c it is close to the coast and may cause confusing in messaging is irrelevant to the met science!   It is what it is.  You can't pick and choose.  Yes, I know it not so simple as to how things work overall, but that does not make me wrong in this context.

In this age of social media, do you want ppl calling you out as to "this thing is clearly ST, and yet nothing from NHC".  Not good PR.   It is even more precarious in this case.  Why?, I can not recall a nor'easter this strong for the E Coast in Sep, so SSTs are near climo peak, and they are 2-4 C  above avg S of New England.  Extraordinary/outlier patterns can lead to extraordinary/outlier events, and we have the knowledge/skill to fcst such much better now, and so should use it.

I've seen NHC highlight baroclinic areas in the subtropical EPAC  that have no chance of development and given it 0/0,  and also in the Atlantic many times, so again, don't tell me there is not anything here to outlook.  If anything, it is more important due to proximity to the coast.

Thoughts?

 As I posted above, JB is insisting this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it should be named. He agrees with you that the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm due largely to GW.

 More evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, the Euro has a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. You mentioned that you don’t recall a nor’easter like this in Sept. I don’t either. They’re usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm. He said tides may go to 3-6 feet AN! 

30 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Lamest Hurricane season ever.

I am ok with that given that last decade.

“Lame” is good for us SE folks, especially those of us with elderly loved ones. Many in the SE US, even well inland, have had a very rough 2016-24. I was heavily affected by 5 storms. I’ll always take the very rare quiet season over that, especially because it will likely not be quiet next year.

22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NYHOPS 12z/23 ensemble for Sandy Hook edges into Major. idea is not to park your car where it can sand blased-flooded-tree branch damage. 

Walt,

 My nephew has a trip planned to NYC for Thu-Sun. I don’t know where he’ll be staying, where he’ll be going, and whether or not he’ll be that close to water (probably not). I’d like your opinion. Is the risk for major disruptions in NYC high enough to make you feel he should consider postponing this trip? Or should he still go there? Thanks.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

almost no rain though lol

Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city?

 There are two AOI in the Atlantic being monitored by the NHC, Invest 90L just off Africa and a possible regenerating Fay:
 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest 
off the coast of western Africa is gradually becoming better 
defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has 
increased since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived 
tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves 
northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds 
should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. 
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of 
this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding 
is possible there by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased with the remnants of 
Fay located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. While 
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for 
development, this system could become a tropical depression again 
today or tonight if the current thunderstorm activity persists. 
The system is forecast to move westward during the next couple of 
days, and by the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation 
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Blake

———————

Edit: 12Z UKMET has Fay not only hanging around for at least 168 hrs but being its strongest at hour 168 as it slowly moves WSW!

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.2N  37.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 23.09.2026    0  30.2N  37.7W     1015            27
    0000UTC 24.09.2026   12  29.8N  39.3W     1014            27
    1200UTC 24.09.2026   24  30.1N  41.0W     1015            29
    0000UTC 25.09.2026   36  30.5N  41.9W     1015            26
    1200UTC 25.09.2026   48  30.7N  42.7W     1014            28
    0000UTC 26.09.2026   60  30.6N  43.3W     1014            28
    1200UTC 26.09.2026   72  30.6N  43.9W     1013            29
    0000UTC 27.09.2026   84  30.5N  44.0W     1014            25
    1200UTC 27.09.2026   96  30.3N  43.7W     1013            28
    0000UTC 28.09.2026  108  29.5N  43.5W     1013            27
    1200UTC 28.09.2026  120  28.4N  43.7W     1012            28
    0000UTC 29.09.2026  132  27.4N  44.8W     1011            29
    1200UTC 29.09.2026  144  26.5N  46.4W     1009            31
    0000UTC 30.09.2026  156  25.7N  48.0W     1008            34
    1200UTC 30.09.2026  168  25.0N  49.2W     1004            39

 I have a family member planning to visit NYC Thu-Sun.
 Is it going to be bad enough for him to consider canceling?
 What are the chances of major coastal flooding causing a big mess through much of NYC? TIA

From the 11AM EDT advisory for TD 15E:

...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system. A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will
likely be required for a portion of the state later today.
——————————

The depression has slowed since the last advisory and seems to be 
moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A ridge to the northeast 
of Hawaii is forecast to weaken and slide eastward as a mid- 
latitude trough drops over the northwestern Hawaiian islands. 
This evolution is likely to the cause the cyclone to slow down 
later today or tonight and then turn northward or north- 
northeastward by tomorrow with some increase in forward speed. The 
trough is forecast to move westward this weekend as the ridge 
rebuilds north of Hawaii, which should force a sharp westward turn 
while the cyclone is close to the Big Island. At this time frame, 
it is impossible to know exactly when that turn will happen and, 
unsurprisingly, there is a large north-south spread in the guidance. 
Our best guidance is on the northern side of the track envelope, 
and new NHC forecast remains essentially the same as the last 
advisory.  Interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially on the Big 
Island, should closely monitor the system, with life-threatening 
catastrophic flooding possible over the steep terrain on this track.

The depression should intensify slowly at first, given the current 
structure of the low-level center not co-located with the mid-level 
circulation as seen on satellite. However, after the system 
develops an inner core, the environment seems conducive for 
significant strengthening, with low shear, high mid-level moisture 
and SSTs from 28-29C.  The rapid intensification probabilities are 
increasing, and the best model guidance is showing this as a major 
hurricane in a few days. Given the environment and the 
best-performing aids (Google DeepMind and HCCA) again showing 
major-hurricane strength, the NHC forecast is raised from the 
previous one and shows the cyclone as a major hurricane when it 
approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.5N 154.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.7N 155.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.0N 155.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.7N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.7N 154.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.6N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.2N 154.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 18.1N 157.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 18.7N 160.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I don't think it's hyperbole to say that all time US records for rainfall could be broken, with the slow movement, size/strength, track and of course terrain enhancement 

 The very rough 2026 for Hawaii looks to get even rougher later this week!

 TD 15E had formed in the E PAC back on Sep 13th from an AEW that had moved off of Africa way back on Aug 27th. This was actually the very next wave after the one that produced Dolly in the Atlantic! This then degenerated in the E PAC into an open wave late on Sep 15th.

 But one week later (late last night), this reorganized back to TD 15E 405 miles SSE of Hilo, Hawaii, moving WNW. It’s forecasted to become a TS later today and then turn sharply N tonight. It is then forecasted to become a H tomorrow night and reach high end cat 2 H status Fri night while not too far S of the big island of Hawaii meaning a potential serious threat there then:

From the NHC discussion:

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt on the 
southwest side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected 
to shift eastward and weaken while a mid- to upper-level low dives 
southwestward near the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. This pattern 
change should cause the cyclone to slow down and then turn northward 
or north-northeastward later this week. That motion should take the 
cyclone near the Big Island of Hawaii late Friday or on Saturday. 
Around that time, the upper low is expected to weaken and move 
westward, allowing mid-level ridging to become re-established to the 
north of the system. In response, the cyclone should turn and then 
accelerate westward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 14.0N 153.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 154.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.6N 155.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.0N 155.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.9N 155.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 154.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 17.9N 154.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 18.3N 156.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 18.2N 159.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

I just noticed that CHS this afternoon lowered my temps for late week into the weekend to the solidly BN range, thanks at least in part to the big nor’easter off the NE US:

FRIDAY 
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 
FRIDAY NIGHT 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
SATURDAY 
SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. 
SATURDAY NIGHT 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
SUNDAY 
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. 

The treadmill may get a break during this period! Hello park! It’s a wonderful time of the year!

6 hours ago, Windspeed said:

We're several days away. The important thing to note from satellite is that there is a surface trough with regions of spin. Some of that energy may even split off to the east. But a surface low will eventually organize, intensify and move near the Mid-Atlantic or New England. It's a bit chaotic between operational runs right now because we're dealing with a phasing situation in 48-72 hrs.

Also, you know how tell the season is dead? When the entire discussion has been taken over by a potential mid-latitudinal coastal storm in the main tropical thread.

Joe Bastardi makes a good point about this likely being warm core at least in the early stages since it would be forming over 82-83F water. He said it weakens as it moves toward the coast because that’s what a warm core storm would do as it gets into cooler SSTs.

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

NHC mentioned last night the depth of the 30-31 C ocean temp was quite deep in this area, but still some slight upwelling would occur for such an intense and slow-moving TC.  That could reduce max potential a bit.  Just thinking of how low the pressure can get.  Only Patricia has EPAC pressure below 900 mb.

Also, regardless of upwelling, this like all TCs of course removes heat from the upper layers of the ocean (potential energy) since that heat is converted to kinetic energy (conservation of energy). So that, alone, should always induce its own cooling even without upwelling per se. And a very strong one like Polo should be taking heat from the ocean at a more rapid rate than a weaker one. That, alone, often brings the SSTs in and near the center down 1-2C based on my following SSTs in the past with deep warmth.

 A batch of heavy showers has popped up, which lead to mainly heavy rain starting at 12:50PM. It is continuing to rain at a moderate rate and this is adding up nicely. 1/2”++ has already fallen. The showers are moving SSW. Before today, I had received 2” MTD. So, these are beneficial rains.

Edit: I estimate a total of 0.55” on Sep 22nd, which brings me to ~2.55” MTD.