GaWx

The E MDR AOI is now Invest 94L.

C

27 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

I call them emotional support named storms.

Joe Bastardi calls them “ham sandwiches” . Well, Cristobal is the latest ham sandwich.

 There’s a decent chance for a record breaking long phase 6 this month. It started in phase 6 on Aug. 3rd:

 The latest GEFS, one of the more reliable for the MJO in the WPAC, has phase 6 through the entire run, Aug 26th, except it has it on the border of phase 5 Aug 18-20th:

 The EPS has it in phase 6 through 8/23:

  These are the longest phase 6 periods on record (back to late 1974):

6/13-30/1984 18 days

7/28-8/18/1984 22

10/6-20/1988 15

7/15-8/4/1996 21

2/25-3/10/1997 14

11/16-12/1/1998 16

7/19-8/1/2018 14

10/13-31/2022 19

1/5-21/2026 17

 So, the longest phase 6 is currently the 22 days of late July-Aug of 1984 with the 2nd longest of 21 days mid July-early Aug 1996 (both near same time of year). The GEFS is suggesting the current one could reach 24+ days while the EPS has it ending up at 21 days.

Initial WxBell Nov ‘26- Mar ‘27 forecast looks very reasonable although I’d like to see the month to month so as to see the expected large variability from early to late as I’ve just been posting about although they did say this:

The bottom line is the colder part of the winter is expected to be later, rather than in December.

Temps:

Snowfall:

 The TW following 92L is also making some noise on the models and is now a lemon although the 0Z UKMET has it just as a TW moving similarly to 92L into the E Caribbean:

8AM TWO:

Now up to 20/30:

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some 
development of this system during the next several days while it 
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Some years are missing, like 1995 and 2007. December 1994 and 2006 were very warm (actually the November-January period was near record warm), while February 1995 and 2007 were the outlier cold months.

Thank you for adding Feb of 1995 and especially 2007 to the list. Indeed, two more cold Febs and they both had warm Decs! So, the idea continues to be that a warm Dec, which is expected especially up north and especially what @snowman19has emphasized and which El Niño climo favors, has little to no bearing on how cold Feb could be. That imho tells me the best way to look toward this winter, looking at its prospects month to month. Models and analogs are emphasizing the prospect for a big range from warm start to cold end.

Invest 92L:
0Z UKMET: only makes it to TD status for the first time in many runs:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 40.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 24 10.6N 40.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 13.08.2026 36 11.4N 42.5W 1012 27
0000UTC 14.08.2026 48 11.5N 46.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 60 12.5N 49.9W 1013 28
0000UTC 15.08.2026 72 13.6N 54.3W 1012 30
1200UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.2N 58.8W 1012 29
0000UTC 16.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chuck. The quite cold E US Nino Febs I’m aware of are 2015, 2010, 2003, 1980, 1978, 1958, 1914, 1912, 1905, and 1885.

Here’s the mean of the 9 Decembers preceding these very cold Nino Febs: like night and day! Look familiar?

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Hey y'all. Pretty new to long-range forecasting; had a random question I couldn't get a good answer on:

When someone says a model is spitting out a peak of +4.5, for example, is that a single-day peak or a three-month average, as tracked by the NWS?

 

It is usually either a 3 month or a 1 month avg.

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Dec-Jan ONI has higher correlation for Feb than Feb ONI. I don't disagree that El Nino's have been historically cold in Feb though. In fact, I would say the stronger, the greater the cold signal should be. 2018-2025 however was the most -PNA on record for Feb by almost +50%! I'd watch the PDO there. 

Thanks, Chuck. The quite cold E US Nino Febs I’m aware of are 2015, 2010, 2003, 1980, 1978, 1958, 1914, 1912, 1905, 1889, and 1885.

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Just Fwiw, the last 2 years on a few runs the CFS has shown -38F anomalies in the NW, US for Dec both times. It didn't happen lol

 It’s very likely overdone, which is why I say it is more like a dream. But IF it were to actually have an inkling of what’s to come, we could be in store for an exciting or possibly even fab Feb. It is essentially going for another Feb of 1958, one of the greatest Febs on record in the E US and this with Feb RONI way up at +1.84! The CFS RONI prog for Feb ‘27 is for a rapid collapse down to +1.5. So, is it likely? No. But is it doable? Yes.
 

 Due to the extreme cold anomalies progged by the CFSv2, look how cold the progged CFSv2 March ‘27 SST anomalies are off the E coast and in the N Gulf! Some areas are -5C/-9F even vs the slightly colder 1984-2009 climo!

 These amazing maps are so much fun to look at and dream about:

Arctic ice area continues to do relatively well!

 The further E AOI is now Invest 92L.

 UKMET: just S of PR as a dissipating minimal TS

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 38.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 36 10.5N 38.6W 1010 26
1200UTC 13.08.2026 48 11.4N 41.6W 1010 29
0000UTC 14.08.2026 60 11.8N 44.6W 1011 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 72 12.8N 48.1W 1011 30
0000UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.0N 51.9W 1011 33
1200UTC 15.08.2026 96 15.3N 56.1W 1011 36
0000UTC 16.08.2026 108 16.2N 60.5W 1010 34
1200UTC 16.08.2026 120 17.0N 64.2W 1010 35
0000UTC 17.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

Week 31 of worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26:


 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?time=1..52&tab=line

 The latest 10 day mean of CFSv2 op runs for JFM is even colder than what had very briefly just become the coldest ever CFSv2 10 day JFM mean that I had ever seen, which I posted last night! 

 It has KATL at -3C/-5.4F vs the 1991-2020 mean. That’s 44F. For reference: since 1980 only one JFM has been 45F or lower: 2010’s 43F!

 This OISST relative 3.4 anomaly graph shows a rapid warming the prior 48 hours of ~0.2C.

A thunderstorm started here a little before 5PM. Coming down hard!

Edit: Total for 8/10: ~0.5”

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm surprised how bad seasonal models are. They just default to ENSO climo it seems. They were way wrong on +100-120dm Aleutian ridge in the DJF mean the last 2 Winters. 

23-24 they were also horrible showing all El Nino stuff. 18-19 Weak El Nino they had opposite US temp anomaly pattern. Sometimes other things besides ENSO have effect, I guess they just can't predict that very well right now. This year is certainly a Winter that could go with something on top of ENSO, given how weak the NPH has responded so far. 

 But this Nino at +1.8 is already stronger than 23-4 at its +1.5 peak. This is going to dwarf 23-4.

21 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

All things considered, the C3S isn’t terrible. It also tends to be one of the more correct seasonal blends that doesn’t overestimate the cold too much. 

 

 

This is still another model looking great leading up to a potential Fab Feb. It’s ashamed we can’t see Feb on this run.

On 8/9/2026 at 8:03 AM, GaWx said:

 Follow-up: Today’s SOI is -10, which makes the current streak at an amazing 91 days, 2nd only to 1998’s 100 days for longest on record back to 1991. I’m predicting that tomorrow’s will be a +SOI, which would mean the streak ends at 91 days.

As expected, today is a +SOI (+2), thus ending the -SOI streak at 91 days. Thus, the 100 day streak of 1998 is safe.

16 hours ago, cptcatz said:

And just like that GFS goes poof for everything. As Green Day once said, wake me up when El nino ends.

12Z UKMET still has a low end TS:

12Z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.2N 36.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 48 10.2N 36.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 60 10.9N 38.4W 1009 28
1200UTC 13.08.2026 72 11.0N 41.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 14.08.2026 84 11.5N 44.1W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 96 12.8N 46.9W 1009 33
0000UTC 15.08.2026 108 14.4N 50.2W 1010 36
1200UTC 15.08.2026 120 15.8N 54.2W 1011 39
0000UTC 16.08.2026 132 17.6N 57.5W 1009 41
1200UTC 16.08.2026 144 18.9N 60.8W 1008 41
0000UTC 17.08.2026 156 20.0N 63.8W 1008 33
1200UTC 17.08.2026 168 21.4N 66.5W 1008 35

—————

Edit: 0Z 8/11 UKMET:

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.9N  36.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 12.08.2026   36  10.9N  36.6W     1011            25
    0000UTC 13.08.2026   48  10.6N  38.8W     1009            30
    1200UTC 13.08.2026   60  11.2N  41.5W     1009            31
    0000UTC 14.08.2026   72  11.9N  44.6W     1009            31
    1200UTC 14.08.2026   84  13.0N  48.1W     1010            33
    0000UTC 15.08.2026   96  14.2N  52.2W     1011            33
    1200UTC 15.08.2026  108  15.7N  55.8W     1011            36
    0000UTC 16.08.2026  120  16.9N  60.6W     1010            34
    1200UTC 16.08.2026  132  17.6N  64.0W     1010            33
    0000UTC 17.08.2026  144              CEASED TRACKING

6 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Does the cold model forecast for this winter jive in any way with Super El Niño? Are there reasons to believe this winter season goes against the grain and produces widespread cold and snow?

If so, Feb would seem to be the best opportunity per models and analogs with a mild Dec and in between Jan.