GaWx

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hmm…down to 60% odds 

Down to 20% now:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands 
is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing 
upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development 
continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty 
winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the 
Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

0Z UKMET: ends up N of PR as a TD moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.1N 56.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2026 108 17.1N 56.8W 1013 24
0000UTC 19.08.2026 120 18.4N 58.3W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2026 132 19.2N 60.4W 1014 26
0000UTC 20.08.2026 144 20.0N 62.1W 1015 27
1200UTC 20.08.2026 156 20.6N 64.3W 1015 28
0000UTC 21.08.2026 168 21.4N 67.0W 1014 28

 After an official airport high of an awful 97, I was on the road in the middle of a full-fledged severe thunderstorm in the SW SAV metro area along and near US-17 and GA 204 ~6-6:15PM. It was about the most ferocious storm I’ve experienced so far this summer with high winds, some of the worst CTG lightning I’ve seen this summer, and blinding torrential rain. It was a doozy with Ma Nature showing off her wild side. There were some fallen trees nearby per reports.

 When I got home it was raining heavily though nothing like what I saw earlier. My home also had a popup earlier. Total rainfall today was >1”, which was very nice to see!

Edit: I ended up with ~1.05” on 8/13. This brings my MTD to an AN 4.55” through 8/15.

15 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

At least by this point, the cold signal was gone. (This was the case in 2015-16.) By the time you went into the fall runs, those regions were showing above average temperatures for DJF on almost all models. By the time you got to October and November in 2015 and 2023, it should have been apparent that December was going to torch.

The cold signal still being there has to bring hope to those want cold and snow. I always keep coming back to the point that the last strong el nino that showed a cold signal this deep into the season produced the coldest CONUS winter in the 21st century.

The Aug ‘23 Jamstec was actually slightly colder than the prior two months. But to be fair, Sep and moreso Oct were colder than the Aug run before Nov warmed back up to no BN. However, even the Oct 23 run, which a number of us including me were understandably salivating over, wasn’t nearly as cold as the current run (also note how much colder is the Arctic vs 23-4):

Current run (Aug):

 Not only have the last 5 Jamstec runs had cold and the coldest on the globe on land in the E US for winter, the 2023-4 winter forecast made in August was much warmer with it NN (see below). Also, this NN DJF forecast made in August of 2023 had been the coldest DJF made by Jamstec in August back to when the current records go back to, which is August of 2017! So, the following for 23-24 and today’s for 26-7 are the two coldest August runs for DJF:

@bluewave

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wayyy too much optimism in this thread. We could use a Bluewave tutorial on how CC has engineered the failure of past auspicious seasonal runs by way of gargantuan ridges eating away the troughs like Pacman.

The cold dominating a large portion of the E US and it being the coldest land area on the entire globe goes all the way back to the first Jamstec run with DJF, April!

April:

May:

June:

July:

Aug:

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Jamstec updated for August. 

I wonder how cold Feb, alone, is in the E US. Also, I wonder if any individual winter months are colder than the prior run. I bet this DJF avg is incorporating a relatively mild Dec compared to Jan and especially Feb, which would mean quite a cold Feb.

 Note that the E US is the coldest land area throughout the world, which is also the case on other models. In addition, Alaska and W Canada are quite warm, which typically teleconnect with a cold E US.

The E MDR AOI is now Invest 94L.

C

27 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

I call them emotional support named storms.

Joe Bastardi calls them “ham sandwiches” . Well, Cristobal is the latest ham sandwich.

 There’s a decent chance for a record breaking long phase 6 this month. It started in phase 6 on Aug. 3rd:

 The latest GEFS, one of the more reliable for the MJO in the WPAC, has phase 6 through the entire run, Aug 26th, except it has it on the border of phase 5 Aug 18-20th:

 The EPS has it in phase 6 through 8/23:

  These are the longest phase 6 periods on record (back to late 1974):

6/13-30/1984 18 days

7/28-8/18/1984 22

10/6-20/1988 15

7/15-8/4/1996 21

2/25-3/10/1997 14

11/16-12/1/1998 16

7/19-8/1/2018 14

10/13-31/2022 19

1/5-21/2026 17

 So, the longest phase 6 is currently the 22 days of late July-Aug of 1984 with the 2nd longest of 21 days mid July-early Aug 1996 (both near same time of year). The GEFS is suggesting the current one could reach 24+ days while the EPS has it ending up at 21 days.

Initial WxBell Nov ‘26- Mar ‘27 forecast looks very reasonable although I’d like to see the month to month so as to see the expected large variability from early to late as I’ve just been posting about although they did say this:

The bottom line is the colder part of the winter is expected to be later, rather than in December.

Temps:

Snowfall:

 The TW following 92L is also making some noise on the models and is now a lemon although the 0Z UKMET has it just as a TW moving similarly to 92L into the E Caribbean:

8AM TWO:

Now up to 20/30:

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some 
development of this system during the next several days while it 
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Some years are missing, like 1995 and 2007. December 1994 and 2006 were very warm (actually the November-January period was near record warm), while February 1995 and 2007 were the outlier cold months.

Thank you for adding Feb of 1995 and especially 2007 to the list. Indeed, two more cold Febs and they both had warm Decs! So, the idea continues to be that a warm Dec, which is expected especially up north and especially what @snowman19has emphasized and which El Niño climo favors, has little to no bearing on how cold Feb could be. That imho tells me the best way to look toward this winter, looking at its prospects month to month. Models and analogs are emphasizing the prospect for a big range from warm start to cold end.

Invest 92L:
0Z UKMET: only makes it to TD status for the first time in many runs:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 40.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 24 10.6N 40.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 13.08.2026 36 11.4N 42.5W 1012 27
0000UTC 14.08.2026 48 11.5N 46.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 60 12.5N 49.9W 1013 28
0000UTC 15.08.2026 72 13.6N 54.3W 1012 30
1200UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.2N 58.8W 1012 29
0000UTC 16.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chuck. The quite cold E US Nino Febs I’m aware of are 2015, 2010, 2003, 1980, 1978, 1958, 1914, 1912, 1905, and 1885.

Here’s the mean of the 9 Decembers preceding these very cold Nino Febs: like night and day! Look familiar?

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Hey y'all. Pretty new to long-range forecasting; had a random question I couldn't get a good answer on:

When someone says a model is spitting out a peak of +4.5, for example, is that a single-day peak or a three-month average, as tracked by the NWS?

 

It is usually either a 3 month or a 1 month avg.

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Dec-Jan ONI has higher correlation for Feb than Feb ONI. I don't disagree that El Nino's have been historically cold in Feb though. In fact, I would say the stronger, the greater the cold signal should be. 2018-2025 however was the most -PNA on record for Feb by almost +50%! I'd watch the PDO there. 

Thanks, Chuck. The quite cold E US Nino Febs I’m aware of are 2015, 2010, 2003, 1980, 1978, 1958, 1914, 1912, 1905, 1889, and 1885.

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Just Fwiw, the last 2 years on a few runs the CFS has shown -38F anomalies in the NW, US for Dec both times. It didn't happen lol

 It’s very likely overdone, which is why I say it is more like a dream. But IF it were to actually have an inkling of what’s to come, we could be in store for an exciting or possibly even fab Feb. It is essentially going for another Feb of 1958, one of the greatest Febs on record in the E US and this with Feb RONI way up at +1.84! The CFS RONI prog for Feb ‘27 is for a rapid collapse down to +1.5. So, is it likely? No. But is it doable? Yes.
 

 Due to the extreme cold anomalies progged by the CFSv2, look how cold the progged CFSv2 March ‘27 SST anomalies are off the E coast and in the N Gulf! Some areas are -5C/-9F even vs the slightly colder 1984-2009 climo!

 These amazing maps are so much fun to look at and dream about:

Arctic ice area continues to do relatively well!

 The further E AOI is now Invest 92L.

 UKMET: just S of PR as a dissipating minimal TS

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 38.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 36 10.5N 38.6W 1010 26
1200UTC 13.08.2026 48 11.4N 41.6W 1010 29
0000UTC 14.08.2026 60 11.8N 44.6W 1011 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 72 12.8N 48.1W 1011 30
0000UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.0N 51.9W 1011 33
1200UTC 15.08.2026 96 15.3N 56.1W 1011 36
0000UTC 16.08.2026 108 16.2N 60.5W 1010 34
1200UTC 16.08.2026 120 17.0N 64.2W 1010 35
0000UTC 17.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

Week 31 of worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26:


 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?time=1..52&tab=line

 The latest 10 day mean of CFSv2 op runs for JFM is even colder than what had very briefly just become the coldest ever CFSv2 10 day JFM mean that I had ever seen, which I posted last night! 

 It has KATL at -3C/-5.4F vs the 1991-2020 mean. That’s 44F. For reference: since 1980 only one JFM has been 45F or lower: 2010’s 43F!