GaWx

Suffolk power outages have increased to the highest I’ve seen there for this storm at 3.2% or 20.6K:

https://poweroutage.us/area/county/830

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Also: due to visibility

32 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Ok here we go, this is great to see. We've been waiting for the recurving typhoons to show up and now it sure seems like they very well could be. We had that one occur what about a week ago now albeit not very impressive at all. My read on that one was I took it as a baby step. Now we have another one slated to do so. Typhoon Surigae.

 

 

Beyond this one. It looks like chances are pretty good for another one to follow in about another week's time. As most models as of this morning give that impression. Sending these into the north pacific adds the fuel to help fire an Aleutian low. Wouldn't you know it, we're seeing a semblance of one on ensembles now. I don't think these things are unrelated and it will be really interesting to follow this. Feels right on time during October too.

 

Oct 5-11 has been similarly cool/warm in the E/W 1/2 of the U.S. for 4 runs:

18 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

31 cancellations today for LGA.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today/klga

Thanks. But tomorrow is a busier day from the afternoon onward than Saturday I believe.

Do you think he’s referring only to his airline when he said no cancellations?

17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

We didnt cancel 1 flight. Until 4pm, there were no ATC delays at all. Simply wasnt weather to call for it.

 

Saturday schedule is also much reduced at LGA. They can operate on one runway easily. JFK is going 7 days a week

Thanks. Does that mean tomorrow PM could return to big delays at LGA like yesterday? I’m asking because my nephew has a 4PM flight leaving from there.

LaGuardia for now is doing much better than 24 hours ago, when avg delays were nearly 3 hrs, as the avg delay now is <15 minutes.

JFK avg delay is 50 minutes.

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Not odd for Ulster with elevation and lots of forest. 

Thanks. Ulster’s now at 17k out of ~100k customers vs Suffolk being at 10k with >6 times the # of customers! Ulster has almost half the outages in the entire state.

https://poweroutage.us/area/county/833

Kind of odd: Ulster Cty now has highest # and % of outages in NY with 11k/11%. Is this accurate? Neighboring counties are much lower.
 

Suffolk is at 9k/1.4%. 

https://poweroutage.us/area/county/833

Radar suggests several mainly dry hours coming in NYC.

KSAV low of 51 is coldest this early in season since 1999.

13 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Chilly morning

 

 

That 51 at KSAV is the earliest that cold since 1999!

Delays are currently much shorter on avg vs last evening at LaGuardia, when they were nearing 3 hrs…maybe then will turn out to be the worst of it??

Suffolk is still by far leading the outages in the area with 10K although that’s still not too bad on a % basis (1.6%). 

Nassau has 5.5K/1.2%.

Total in NY state: 23K

NJ: 31K with highest # in Ocean Cty at 8K (2.5%) although highest % in NW NJ’s Warren Cty (5.4%)

CT: 14K with highest % of 4% in E CT

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Power outages are highest in Suffolk as a %, but even there that’s only at 0.5%.

Suffolk outages have increased from ~3K (0.5%) to ~5K (0.8%) within the last hour.

 Power outages are highest in Suffolk as a %, but even there that’s only at 0.5%.

42 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

That cold map is for Oct 5-12.

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That seems diametrical to the current operation guidance,   CMC/GFS/EURO     All three have 564 to 570+ hydrostatic heights, with W to SW/NW off shore components, Wed thru Sat.  

Now ...this may differ from ens mean/bulk signaling and telecon indexes therefrom, et al... not sure, haven't checked. But, the operational runs are warmer than just mild those 4 days as of these last 00z guidance

Thank you! I had a brain malfunction! I edited my original post to point to the error and correction of dates. I apologize for my mistake.

 The new map for Oct 5-11 has a slightly stronger cold signal than yesterday’s:

H5:

@mitchnick

 I’m not saying the Euro is necessarily going to be right. But I’m passing this along because it’s objectively determined and easily available to the wx community. So fwiw:

 The new Euro ensemble (12Z) maintains the 90-100% chance that the 0Z and 6Z had for a tropical storm to form from this:

The run from just 24 hrs earlier for the same period had only just over 70% for the chance:

I’ve only rarely seen these very comfy conditions here this early in autumn, especially in recent decades:

SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS 
SAVANNAH ARPT MOSUNNY  75 53 46 N10 30.02F 
HUNTER AAF SUNNY  75 53 45 N5 29.98F

12Z Euro maps have a 500 mb temperature max of -5C near the center mainly on the eastside.

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Should have recon data in an hour or so, NOAA2 took off a little while ago

A beast:

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Well, there won't be much subway service Monday morning if that verifies.

What about airport service on Sun/Mon at the 3 major NYC area airports? How did past comparable storms affect service?

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I understand how this stuff is to be interpreted.  

I'm looking at the particulars of the synoptic parameters spanning those 4 days.   Thu and Fri in particular are much warmer than normal.  not -1   ...more like +15 off of the last two consec runs of the GFS operational.  

570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way.  I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long.  We can definitely still get it done.  

 

Thanks.

1. I understand and perhaps this will bust too cool. We’ll see.

2. Let’s see if today’s update is warmer.

2. You may have not seen my edit:

 “Keep in mind that this was based on yesterday’s 0Z Euro ens (the latest Euro Weeklies output available til after 4PM EDT today).”

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That seems diametrical to the current operation guidance,   CMC/GFS/EURO     All three have 564 to 570+ hydrostatic heights, with W to SW/NW off shore components, Wed thru Sat.  

Now ...this may differ from ens mean/bulk signaling and telecon indexes therefrom, et al... not sure, haven't checked. But, the operational runs are warmer than just mild those 4 days as of these last 00z guidance

John,

 Keep in mind that this was based on yesterday’s 0Z Euro ens (the latest Euro Weeklies output available til after 4PM EDT today), the 2nd shade of blue is -1 to -3C (so much of it for 9/28-10/3 could conceivably be closer to the -1C boundary), and this product uses a warmer climo base than most, the last 20 years:

• re-forecasts are derived by re-running an 11-member ensemble (1 control and 10 perturbed members) using the same calendar start date for each of the last 20 years.

*Edited

 It’s looking pretty chilly in the E 1/2 of the U.S. next week (this is for Sep 28th-Oct 4th): *Edited to correct date to Oct 4th

————

**Edit #2 4:35PM EDT Sep 25th:

 As was pointed out to me later ITT, I made a mistake as the map was actually for Oct 5-11, not Sep 28th-Oct 4th:

The MJO continues to avoid both the IO and the MC for a duration unlike any in recorded history: