I’m wondering if W Yellowstone Gateway, which is at 6,666 ft, could get some snow:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING 
TO NOON MDT MONDAY... 

* WHAT...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 
4 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BIG SKY, WEST YELLOWSTONE, TARGHEE PASS, 
AND RAYNOLDS PASS 
942 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026

TONIGHT 
COLDER. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN 
THE EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 31 TO 37.

IF W Yell. Gate can somehow get any measurable SN late tonight, it would be a new record latest in season meas. on record by 20 days! They’ve had no meas. June 9th-Sep 14th although records go back only to 2007. But even just a T would be notable as they’ve had only 2 Ts June 28th-Sep 4th since 2007:

Records:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tfx
 

https://grizzlyrv.com/what-is-the-elevation-of-west-yellowstone/

Heavy popup over me just started!

Edit: I forgot to post about a popup line that developed along the seabreeze midafternoon yesterday that gave me ~0.25” (on June 26th), which had brought my MTD as of 6/26 to 4.65”.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

No, it’s not basin-wide like 2015. Since the biggest player this winter, by far and away is going to be a record-breaking super El Niño, 2009-10 doesn’t match, not one iota. This Nino is going to be a completely overwhelming signal that will trump anything else in the atmosphere or the rest of the oceans. It’s not an analog, not even close. We disagree. This is going to be a very easy winter to predict, there’s nothing hard or challenging about it, not at all. Easiest one in years. And I don’t agree at all with your assessment that this El Nino developing like 2015-16. This one is very, very clearly east-based and it’s going to stay that way. We can split atoms all we want and say it’s “hybrid”, “basin-wide”, “migrating Modoki”, “in betweener” or whatever other adjectives we can come up with and it’s not going to change that fact. It’s been abundantly clear for a month now that this is easily going to be the strongest super El Niño since 1950, at the very least, more likely the strongest one of all time, both in RONI and ONI

 These are progging 4 to get way up to +2.4 to +2.5, which is way higher than the record high of only +1.5 (‘23-4), +1.4 (‘15-6), +1.2 (‘09-10), +1.1 (‘68-9), +1.0 (‘18-9). Even the relatives for ‘26 on CFS/Euro are way up at ~+2.0!

‘97-8 and ‘82-3 were only +0.7!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

New lemon off SE coast:

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

New lemon off the SE coast. Minor to modest development signal on the guidance but perhaps there’s just enough of a window for weak development.

0Z UKMET has a 1015 mb low hitting Daytona Thu AM moving WNW underneath a very strong H5 high centered over W VA although this is the model run exception rather than the rule. This is too weak to make it to actual TD status although it’s its first run with anything of note.

33 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Last few days or a week or so - have been seeing pretty frequent Cloudflare "Bad Gateway" 502 errors from the forum. Generally a refresh of the page loads it (albeit slowly). Anything going on? 

It’s been awful. It got better this morning, but got bad again this afternoon. The last few days have been worst I’ve seen since joining in 2010! @Wow

1 hour ago, SUNYGRAD said:

still a problem.  

 

51 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Worse for me today Larry!

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah it seemed to be working somewhat better before mid-morning but now it's as bad as ever

Yep, the lag came back. 

 The latest Euro and Icon are suggesting that H5 heights will reach a max of ~598 dm at some point over GSO within the July 1-3 period. They have as much as 597 dm as of 8AM. A 597 would more than likely be approaching the all time record high for there at 12Z, which often runs a couple of dm lower than an afternoon max. For comparison, it reached ~597-598 dm at GSO at 12Z on 7/7/1986 per old maps I saw yesterday. I have no way of knowing if that’s the highest on record at 12Z though without spending at least many hours going through numerous maps.

Finally there is no lag! Hopefully it’s done! Anyone else seeing a big improvement? Maybe wow fixed it?

@Maggie Valley Steve

On 6/19/2026 at 2:12 PM, BooneWX said:

So much is loaded into the net result of everyday winter weather but it’s going to be intriguing to see play out. We’ve had a lot of cold and dry the past few years with a southern jet that just can’t get the job done and watching everything get suppressed. I think we swing the pendulum the other way this year but hopefully not too much. My fear is that it’s indeed BN for much of the season with AN precip but I think it’s driven by a lot of 45° rainstorms - not snow. But we only need to connect on one for it to be a good winter in this forum.

A lot of 45 degree rains would themselves be great news to relieve the drought. A lot of rains at any temp! Relieving the drought would make it a good winter whether or not any there are any widespread SE winter storms. If one happens to be a winter storm, which wouldn’t be hard to occur, that would be icing on the cake.

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

In other news, the 90 day SOI is almost -14 and the 30 day SOI is over -18. Massive turnaround since the end of March. Extremely impressive….

When you combine everything with the ++PMM, the STJ is going to be a roided up beast this fall/winter

Yep. This is fantastic news for prospects to relieve the terrible SE drought! Couldn’t have better prospects. Nearly the exact opposite of last fall/winter’s drought inducing La Niña.

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

The 12z GFS for Juy 4th:

Some of this is almost certainly the GFS doing GFS kinds of things (i.e., too hot especially after day 5). The GFS does this frequently in summer. It could easily be 5-10 F too hot. I’d bet heavily against it being this hot. Quite hot is likely but not this hot.

Edit: the lagging issue here isn’t getting any better. It’s terrible! I’ve been here since it started in 2010 and can’t recall any tech issue worse than this.

@Wow

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Sorry I probably should have worded it a bit better. They are Max temps for the entire summer at those locations.

 Oops. So, that’s why most others’ maxes are significantly warmer than mine. I inadvertently in my mind entered a different max temps contest than most. 
 One other entrant @RodneyShas similarly lower maxes to mine. I wonder if he also thought it was just for June. And I saw people before me putting “June” on their entry, which further made me think the maxes also were for just June.

 If there’s any way you can remove my maxes picks, please do so. Otherwise, it’s ok. Maybe I’ll get lucky. 

 Does 30C remain a “magic number” with a warming globe? Or does the “magic #” keep warming as the globe warms? What is the science behind a 30C “magic #”?

On 6/20/2026 at 11:50 AM, GaWx said:

 Keep in mind that these tend to run too high when forecasting extremes out several weeks:

 

Note it’s now <0.5. Compare that to this 6/3 forecast, which had it at +2 for today!

 The first CFS ens AAM run in 5.5 days was just released at the site I follow and it’s a doozy overall with a mean way up at ~+2.8 in just 12 days (July 7th), which is the earliest in the forecast period being that high of any run I’ve ever saved going back to late 2023! (See 2nd image below.) The prior highest mean for day 12 was ~+2.25 on the 5/21/26 12Z run, which verified at ~+1.8 (not bad). If it were to actually verify at +2.8, that would be only a little lower than the ~+3.2 record for that date set in 2015 per this chart from an earlier Tweet I just read:

 Regarding the full run, this is the highest mean of any I’ve saved/seen with it +2.8+ from day 12 through day 33 (July 28th), the end of the run:




 I’ll reiterate though that these tend to run too high, especially late in the runs, when this strong. For example, the 5/25 0Z run (see below) had a mean for today of ~+3 vs the actual of ~0, which is the dip that @bluewave alluded to. Thus, caution is still advised. But with it being way up at +2.8 as early as fcast day 12, it may actually verify pretty closely like the 5/21/26 12Z run at day 12 did (+1.8 vs +2.25 wasn’t too far off):

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

July fourth temps are scorching. An appropriate portend these days 

I’d be quite surprised if KATL has a high on 7/4 of 103 and 104 on 7/5 as this (6Z) gfs run shows because of recent good rains there and the tendency for the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro to be too hot for summer highs in much of the SE outside of RDU. An important variable on how hot it will get will be the amount of rainfall there between now and then. Regardless, heat indices look to be awful either way.

The lagging for the last 2 days has been terrible at AmericanWx!

53 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I think it’s going to get significantly worse before it gets better. I do think the fire hose turns on eventually but I’m not optimistic that happens before Sept

 Every El Niño is different of course. But based on past very strong El Ninos, the firehose of ST moisture for much of the SE doesn’t usually fully turn on until Nov or after the main part of the ATL tropical season is over.

  Does/will CC lead to more net harm or more net benefit? That depends on whom you ask as there are many different perspectives as well as biases. For example, AGW alarmists see only the bad effects and believe the worst case scenarios. OTOH, AGW deniers like Joe Bastardi don’t even acknowledge AGW!

 I don’t think it’s black and white. For example, I as a near coastal resident put more emphasis on past and progged sea rises as well as increased TC related rainfall/peak wind potential than many far from the coast since I see the direct effects close-up. The frequency of significant to major coastal flooding events nearby has increased greatly. This is both with tropical cyclones and without them including King tides on sunny days. Charleston, SC, is a great example of this. I see soooo many coastal flood advisories for there nowadays, including a large # on sunny days! It wasn’t anything like that in the past. However, I also acknowledge that a portion of this there and at places like Louisiana and even Manhattan is caused by sinking land. As a near coastal resident, I also have been seeing up close higher avg SSTs and accompanying higher dewpoints/heat indices making summers worse.

 Is anyone else intermittently seeing “bad gateway” error code 502 messages and sometimes having trouble with long delays in reading and posting with it saying the problem is with the host, AmericanWx BB? It’s the worst I can recall here! I’m not seeing this with any other sites.

The code 502 errors are really bad today with big slowdowns here!

 OHC climbing back and may soon reach April 20th highs for 2026:

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Good morning folks please place July forecasts below when you get the chance with the typical deadline of July 1st by 6z. I will be away for vacation from the 28th to the 5th of July so Ill do my best to compile all the values when I get back then. Ill try to do a quick update before I leave of what the results of June will look like around Friday (26th) since there shouldn't be major changes that occur.

 Thanks for doing this.
 Are you also asking for max July temps like you did for June?

22 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

Holy moley - this thread is starting to get quite extremist, I have to say.

You folks do realize that a lot more people die of *cold* each year, than die of *heat* - right?   I don't think you really want to go where you're going.  

Let's be pragmatic here.   MMGW, while certainly an issue, is not a practical threat to human life, in any way, shape or form.   People are going to die from extreme heat waves - just as they have since the beginning of time.   As the planet warms *less* people will die (and have been dying) due to weather events, not more.

 
 Although US heat related deaths are rising and should continue to rise from GW, it’s true that far more people have died from cold than from heat (>10:1) and thus GW should in theory result in a net of fewer cold/heat related deaths there for a good while into the future. And this isn’t even taking into account any increases in food supply attributed to longer growing seasons and increased CO2 fertilization effect. So, CC clearly has some benefits regardless of the often emphasized harms that include rising sea levels, increased extreme flooding incidences, and more powerful tropical cyclone peaks/heavier rainfall from warmer temps holding more moisture and slower moving (on avg) TCs:

Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Burden in the US From 2000 to 2020

The Yale University Institutional Review Board approved this case series

Findings  This case series of 54 223 429 deceased individuals found that both low and high temperatures were significantly associated with mortality burden, with low temperatures associated with more mean annual deaths (45 992) than high temperatures (3414). However, the burden from high temperatures increased by 53% from the 2000-2009 to 2010-2020 study periods.

 The annual mortality count attributable to low temperatures increased by 7% between the 2000-2009 and 2010-2020 study periods, from 44 278 to 47 551 annual deaths. However, the annual mortality count attributable to high temperatures increased by 53%, from 2670 to 4091 annual deaths.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2841063

1. The Euro doesn’t peak before Dec, with a record RONI monthly of +3.1 in Dec vs current monthly record of +2.7 (1982):

2. But the CFS peaks earlier (in Nov) also way up at record levels for RONI of +3.2C. But then afterward, the CFS has by far the fastest cooling on record (I’m taking with a grain, especially because it’s the unreliable CFS) with it plunging to only +2.0 in Jan and +1.5 in Feb:

3. Due to a tendency for models to be a bit too warm with forecasts this far out, it wouldn’t surprise me if the actual RONI monthlies peak in the high +2s instead of low +3s. However, with the record warmest RONI month of only +2.7, a record warmest RONI is likely as of now.

If this were to keep up, the WCS daily PDO would go positive at least for a short period starting by ~this weekend! It’s now up to -0.17 vs -1.40 on May 27th:

 The last times this was + were ~5 days in March-April of 2025!