GaWx

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong 

Out of 36 mod+ Ninos since 1850s, only 2 didn’t have NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4!

47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This has to be confirmed but I think RDU just broke the record for wettest July in its history 

Through July 24th, it’s the wettest on record since way back in 1941!

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

At this time last year it was -3, so not as extreme as recent years. It will be interesting to see if we break into positive territory by December.

 To compare to the prior Nino, July was similarly strongly -PDO and it hit most neg ~Oct 1st. Then it rose to a more moderate -PDO:

WCS PDO is still dropping and is now down to -1.81, lowest since early Oct:

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With today's -16.25, the streak, which began on May 11 is 75 days. The record is 100 consecutive days (January 3 through April 12, 1998). Daily records only go back to 1991.

 Thanks, Don. It will be interesting to see if 2026 beats 1998’s 100 days!

 As you said, the record of the daily SOs goes back only to 1991. I wonder if there’s any way to find dailies pre-1991. Based on the monthlies, I’d say that 1982-3 would have a 50% or higher chance of having a streak exceeding 100 days if the dailies could be found. Why? These monthlies, especially Nov-Mar:

1982  8   -22.2  1
1982  9   -20.0  1
1982  10  -20.5  1
1982  11  -30.0  1
1982  12  -22.6  1
1983  1   -31.4  1
1983  2   -35.7  1
1983  3   -25.7  1

 
 Another good candidate per the monthlies is 1905, especially Mar-June:

1905  2   -18.5  3
1905  3   -27.7  1
1905  4   -38.2  1
1905  5   -34.3  1
1905  6   -27.7  1
1905  7   -19.8  1

One last good possibility is 1896, especially May-Aug:

1896  5   -38.8  3
1896  6   -27.0  1
1896  7   -19.1  1
1896  8   -21.0  1
1896  9   -18.2  1
1896  10  -19.2  1

52 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I found them  

Yep, extent is doing worse than area as compared to recent years.

-SOI has reached 74 straight days! That will continue supporting robust warming of Nino 3.4.

Parts of Houston metro received significantly more rainfall from Bertha than models had with up to ~5” vs mist progs of ~0.75”. Here’s the final advisory:

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Doesn't look like the senate has 60 votes.   I'd rather keep the current system-not interested in 8:30 sunrises

Most Senators were alive during the 1974 year-round DST disaster that was thus quickly reversed. And can you imagine not getting the Euro til 2AM during the crucial winter season?

The current -SOI streak has now surpassed the 72 day streak of 1997 and is now at 74 days. Only 1998’s 100 days has been longer as far back as daily records go at Long-Paddock:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer.

We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May.

What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen. 
 

 

 

 

Chris,

June-July 1991 also didn’t get the memo (Also, May of 1991 was very warm):

In addition, June-July of 1877 wasn’t cool.

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A “must read” piece on climate, data, and data manipulation:

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/hot-days-cold-thermometers

Thanks, Don! 

 This is the first time I can recall becoming aware of this observation time bias potentially causing overcounting of high max temps due to double counting of these highs as a result of observers getting 24 hour max prior to 1940s during late afternoon, near the time of most very hot highs, as opposed to mainly doing it near sunrise 1940s+.

 Do you have a source with more details on this? How widespread was this practice of getting 24 hour max late in afternoon? Do you by chance know how often this would result in double counting hot highs?

12Z UKMET: 1005 mb Galveston hour 33 
-Has TS force winds C and W LA coast but nowhere in TX. 
-Rainfall for GLV-HOU only ~0.5-75”. Max is ~4” and is near Matagorda Bay.

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 88.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2026 0 29.8N 88.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 23.07.2026 12 29.3N 90.7W 1003 33
1200UTC 23.07.2026 24 29.0N 92.4W 1001 43
0000UTC 24.07.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

 The 7/21/26 WCS PDO of -1.56 is the lowest since way back on 11/8/25:

I’m calling the formation of Bertha as another MJO phase 8 related pattern recognition win for Joe Bastardi in addition to Arthur.

I had a very impressive ~3.75” July 12-15 at my place, which allowed me to stop irrigation for the time being. However, since then (~one week), I’ve had hardly any.

Last 90 days of MJO still is when averaged the most left-sided on diagram for this time of year, April 22nd-July 20th, for any year on record (back to 1975…I just looked at all of them) and this new record should hold through the end of July at least. Anybody know what this means?

Latest mean of CFS AAM prog: steady as she goes +1.5 to +2.0 into mid August indicative of strong El Niño (further out usually higher/too high due to + bias):

6Z UKMET: weaker than 0Z’s 999 mb with 1005 mb when near GLV (hour 39). Most of rainfall S of GLV, where <1” falls, and Houston, where <0.5” falls. Peak of ~4” Matagorda Bay.

0Z UKMET: similar to 12Z with a TS passing just S of Galveston at hour 45 heading W with a 999 mb 44 knot winds then with most of the rain in the S quadrant; the remnant inland low then moves SW 

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 87.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2026 0 29.2N 87.5W 999 42
1200UTC 22.07.2026 12 29.3N 88.3W 998 37
0000UTC 23.07.2026 24 28.5N 90.4W 997 40
1200UTC 23.07.2026 36 28.8N 92.7W 998 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 48 29.0N 95.9W 1002 31
1200UTC 24.07.2026 60 27.6N 99.2W 1006 26
0000UTC 25.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So many click bait winter outlooks from meteorologists on YouTube calling for a snowy winter for the Northeast due to the strong STJ.

 Hasn’t it been the case just about every year for a good while that there are numerous clickbait mets on YouTube calling for a snowy winter in the E US for whatever reason they come up with that year? They always seem to do this. What’s extra funny is that the bulk of them usually also have mild and limited snow in the SW US because they don’t live out there. By having mild/snowless on their maps, they probably think that makes them look objective as opposed to having cold/snowy just about everywhere lmao. The whole thing is laughable.

Arctic ice area not too bad currently with it near the 2013-24 avg as of now:

12Z UKMET is, of course, stronger due to a stronger initialization. This, like the 0Z, only skirts LA and like that one comes in just SW of Galveston hours 57-60 while highest winds are 45 knots/solid TS:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 85.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.8N 85.9W 997 52
0000UTC 22.07.2026 12 29.3N 87.4W 996 43
1200UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.4N 88.3W 996 41
0000UTC 23.07.2026 36 29.2N 89.8W 995 40
1200UTC 23.07.2026 48 29.1N 92.1W 995 47
0000UTC 24.07.2026 60 29.0N 95.1W 997 45
1200UTC 24.07.2026 72 27.9N 98.2W 1003 29
0000UTC 25.07.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Does this have anything to do with the El Nino?  Maybe very warm in Argentina, and cold up 80N?  Just wondering.  

Good question. I don’t know but they’re both fascinating to see.

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Aside: I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems?