GaWx

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

And Sunday was supposed to be the best chance lol. 

Parts of Johnston county have been the RDU metro jackpot winners of the last 96 hours overall with 1.5”-2”. Here’s the last 24 hours: only they got significant amounts

Today’s Euro Weekly for May 25-31 is even wetter in the SE and is close to the wettest on the entire globe for that week for land areas in terms of anomalies!

 This has a max of 3.5-4” over N GA/far NW SC and 2”+ for just about the entire SE, just what the drought doc ordered!

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not sure about the resolution of this CPC product, nor therein ...how well it reflects the real physical state out there but this looks like the deeper warm plume's slightly shrinking 

 

 That’s consistent with this that shows a fairly modest drop over the last few weeks to ~+2.0, which I assume is just temporary before a resumption of the warming: (I believe this is based on the avg for the top 300 meters)

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We’ve had 0.58” total here (0.51”, 0.07”, TR)  keep seeing these 3-7” amounts in upstate and Charlotte 

 I’d love to have had 0.58” as I’ve had only a T total the last 3 days, which includes a T late yesterday afternoon and another T early this afternoon. After a beautiful 1.2” 18 hour long soaking rain on May 2nd, my area has been getting teased since with only ~0.25” total. But I remain optimistic for the upcoming week.

Last 3 days rainfall RDU metro area per Cocorahs reports for 24 hr periods ending ~7AM:

5/21-2: solid/best 24 hr period of last 3 overall with 0.5-1.5” for many

5/22-3: Johnston, SW Nash, S Franklin, and far N/SE Wake counties another good one for many with ok to quite good (0.3-1.25”) but W Wake, Durham, and NE Chatham <0.1”

5/23-4: widespread but only very light with heaviest only 0.06”/lightest of the 3 periods overall

 Maybe I‘m forgetting, but I don’t recall seeing even a drop of rain here since at least May 13th that is until just now. I finally got a few drops (a T) a little while ago and radar suggests I could get some more. But prospects aren’t great for much more this evening. Regardless, things are looking up for the next couple of days and much of the week to come with an overall wet pattern.

 I’m at only ~1.5” MTD. Thus, I had recently resumed watering regularly.

 Euro Weeklies are still quite wet in the SE next week (5/25-31) as this represents 2-3” for many:

 Good news thanks to El Nino for folks like me who prefer a not so active season and thus less risk of destruction in the SE and thus lower stress:

NOAA's outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a below-normal season is the most likely outcome, with moderate chances for a near-normal season, and low probabilities that the season could be above-normal. The outlook calls for a 55% chance for a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance for an above-normal season. See the NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons for more information. 

The 2026 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

8-14 Named Storms

3-6 Hurricanes

1-3 Major Hurricanes

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 45-115% of the median

———————

 It’s all relative though and unfortunately the midpoints of 11 NS/4.5 H/2 MH can still be devastating if land is affected as it takes only one like in ‘92.
 
 Also, NOAA has wide spreads. I’m leaning to lower half of these due to how strong El Niño is expected to be and not as warm ATL tropics as in ‘23.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

1 hour ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Hey Larry. I am aware of the Main Tropical thread, but personally I don't post or get involved in those board wide threads anymore. My focus is purely local and regional and I was wondering if there's interest with any other like minded folks in the SE Region. 

 Steve, I understand your focus. There’s nothing stopping you from creating it. But,

 1. The local/regional specifics have been taken care of by SE individual storm threads and even then participation wasn’t better than the main indiv. storm thread. Even SE folks often posted more in the main trop. indiv. storm threads. For example, the Milton SE thread here (link below) had barely any posts other than Kayman’s many tornado posts due to lack of enough interest despite its major effects on FL while the main Milton thread had over 2K posts:

2. Even without a specific storm, you, me, and others can already post about the tropics’ potential effects on the SE within the SE Mid-long range discussion threads as I’ve done before. At this time of year with not as much interest in those threads vs winter, the mid-long range threads can use more posts.

3. I don’t think it’s good to create more threads than necessary because it makes the already existing threads quieter. This BB used to thrive on general threads that all would feel welcome to post in. Now it’s become much more regional. But there still is one general thread per year (titled with ENSO) and one general ATL tropical thread that both welcome all to post in.

14 hours ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Moderate rain with thunder. 

I'd like you folks input on starting our own SE Region Tropical thread. I know how much trauma Helene brought to our Mountain neighbors. My primary weather focus has always been tropical going up along the Upper Texas Coast. The SE Region covers a tremendous amount of Coastline from Mississippi to the Outer Banks. El Ninos tend to throw a curveball or two not far offshore. If you think the SE posters would participate, let me know.

Hey Steve,

IMO it’s not needed because:

-An ATL trop. thread already exists each year, with a big increase in posts when the SE is threatened:

-When there are specific storm threats to the SE, I’ve started threads on those storms in SE region and probably would again if nobody else does. But even then, there were more posts in the main thread as tropical posts here were kind of limited.

-So, I don't think a 2nd general trop thread is needed here. I suggest posting in the general thread and then also in any individual storm SE threat if they’re created.

Last 3 24 hr periods of rain ending 7AM at Cocorahs reporting stations (Clayton Cty has no stations evidently): many ATL area spots already got a much needed 0.4-0.8” with more to come next few days

5/22-3:

5/21-2:

5/20-1:

58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I checked the radar and saw them doing the split around you

E ATL burbs doing quite well though.

Does anyone have a link to radar estimated rainfall?

The most solid Nino support from AAM yet if this CFS prog is to be believed:

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1982-83 was hands down the worst winter of the strong nino bunch here. 

1957-8, 1972-3, and 1982-3 had the most wintry precipitation of the super Ninos in the SE US. Also, 1957-8 was cold vs the NN of 72-3 and 82-3. 65-6 was also cold.

27 minutes ago, roardog said:

What is the site for the daily PDO readings? I can’t remember what it is. 

Click on 2nd chart on right at this link:

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

It dropped to -1.04, which is equivalent to the NOAA being in the ~-1.75 to -2 range.

Opinions on N half of ATL metro over next 4 days…should just about everyone expect 1-3”?

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct. Out of all the “recent” super El Niños (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), *at the current point in time*, 2026 is most similar to 1997

Thanks. Actually at the current point in time, I have 2026 to be most similar to 2015: check this out

13MAY2015         1.3        0.7        0.6        0.7
 20MAY2015         1.3        0.5        0.5        0.8

13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982 wasn't W based. That one topped out at +4.6 on Nino 1+2, which is even higher than 1997 (4.1). If anything, 1982 should be E based.

82-83 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.6        

Nino 3: 2.9

Nino 3.4: 2.9

Nino 4: 1.3

97-98 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.1

Nino 3: 3.3

Nino 3.4: 2.2

Nino 4: 1.1

 I didn’t say 1982 was W based overall. I was specifically referring to the mid May snapshot, when it was actually W based. I said, “In mid May vs 2026”, 1982 was more W based than 2026:

1982: 1+2 was coolest in mid May

12MAY1982        -0.6        0.5        0.4        0.7
 19MAY1982        -0.4        1.0        1.1        1.1

2026: 1+2 is warmest in mid May

13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

 So, as of mid May, 1982 was more W based than 2026. Later (July and beyond), I agree that 1982 clearly transitioned to E based. But my post was referring only to the snapshot as of the current point in time, mid May.

Darwin’s higher than normal SLP is finally starting to contribute to a -SOI. Until yesterday, it’s been mainly due to low Tahiti SLP.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting

Looking at mid May relative 1+2, 1997 was +2.2 and rising (it hit +3.0 in early June and +4.0 in early Aug) vs 2026 being +1.3 and rising. Otherwise, 1997 and 2026 are very close in 3, 3.4, and 4. So, that’s why I have 1997 more E based than 2026 as of the mid May snapshot. It’s all because of 1+2, which has a 0.9C diff although it’s a more volatile area since smaller.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too. 

In mid May vs 2026:

-2023 was more E based

-2015 was similar

-1997 was more E based

-1991 and 1982 were more W based

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....

1. Per that table, 2023 had a record high IOD for the months of Aug and Sep.

2. Keep in mind that IOD levels have had a notable longtime rise though. So, that biases more recent years toward a higher +IOD. Even the warm neutral (as opposed to El Niño) 2019 had a very strong +IOD in autumn/2nd strongest only to 1997! And as I already said, the very weak El Niño of 2018 still was able to have a strong +IOD.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Either way it will be mild, but we would at least have a shot at a decent stretch if you're right.

So the +IOD wasn't that strong in 2015 and 2023??

I’m not @snowman19but I can tell you based on the link below that 2023 was similar to 1997 in having a very strong +IOD. 2018 was next and then 1994.

 1972, 1982, 2006, and 2015 were next (still moderately strong).

 Keep in mind:

-There’s been a decided longterm rise of the IOD in this table. So, it isn’t adjusted for long term trends. That’s why 2018 had such a strong +IOD despite El Niño being weak.

-IOD tends to peak ~Oct-Nov and falls off in winter, especially when strongly positive in autumn. So when moderate to strong +IOD in SON, it about always has had a notably lower DJF vs SON.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The coming winter season is goin to be a good test as to whether the absolute RONI value or the delta between it and the RONI is of greater significance. The key is whether or not we get that "La Nino" half-assed Aleutian low like 2023 again.

 Evidently based on pro mets I follow, having relatively cooler SST anomalies near Australia compared to warmer anomalies to the east of there will be crucial. For 2023, the models, which earlier had the nice E US trough/Aleutian low that we were salivating over, were then erroneously forecasting cooler near Australia, which is pretty typical of El Niño.

 This strong El Niño is great news for the really bad drought the SE has been enduring.

Latest CFS RONI peaks at +2.65 to +2.70 in OND, which would be a record high beating 1982:

Latest CFS ONI is +3.25-30 in OND, meaning keeping the differential near 0.6: