GaWx

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One word comes to mind looking at overnight modeling: spring 

 The threat of a mid-month winter storm for your area on the operationals has obviously come down as I posted. However, todays still cold and after the next few days’ of non-torch warming, it still looks mainly cold up your way for most of 2/12-15 (much colder anomalies than down here). Plus highly beneficial rain appears to be headed into much of the drought parched SE though sadly probably not down here. Then after a 6 day warming, it cools off substantially again with no sign of sustained warmth for late month into early March. With this, I expect at least one more wintry threat for much of especially well inland NC as the WPO and AO fall back some  A key though will be the PNA. It’s headed for unfavorable stout negative territory, but will it rise back to closer to neutral late month? PNA has been mainly over performing vs largely poor predictions.

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z ICON just Rain. 

The other 0Z ops are also quiet. But here’s the 0Z GEFS:

14 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 4 by the 22nd. Hopefully enough time left on the clock for another snowy period. Worst case is its too late but we end up with yet another cold and rainy spring.

 I finally finished my analysis of temperatures at Baltimore (as a rep. of the middle portion of the E coast) during the 20 La Niña Februaries (566 days, a big sample) by MJO phase. Keep in mind that La Niña Februaries in the E US have averaged a bit AN (+2.3F at Baltimore) as expected. That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. If a phase is colder (warmer) than +2.3, I’m considering it a cold (warm) phase on average relative to La Niña Feb climo.

 Here are the resulting anomalies (in degrees F) keeping in mind these are merely averages of a wide range from MB or B to MA for each phase:

Phase 1: +2.1 (near Niña Feb climo)

Phase 2: +4.4 (2nd warmest)

Phase 3: -1.5 (easily coldest at 3.8 colder than Niña Feb climo)

Phase 4: +3.3

Phase 5: +3.1

Phase 6: +5.5 (warmest)

Phase 7: +2.2 (near Nina Feb climo)

Phase 8: +0.7 (2nd coldest)

Data sources:

1. MJO for each day of the 20 La Niña Febs:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. Daily Baltimore temperatures for each day in Feb:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

I have to admit Bad Bunny wasn’t bad at all at the Super Bowl halftime show. It was quite entertaining despite my understanding very little Spanish and was better than most of these in recent years imho.

 Today’s crisp sunny very low dewpoint day was near ideal for my walk today! Nice way to top off a great weekend for outdoor activities.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row 

When you imply that Nov-Jan were all 3 BN cold, what specific area are you referring to? TIA

Clownies for 0Z:

CMC

King

0Z Euro nice hit N NC:

12Z Euro has notable snow much of NC and VA starting Valentine’s Day afternoon and ending late that night:

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

Top 10 cold period past two and a half weeks for eastern US:

https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/2019729810914992195

Dominant indices Jan 15-Feb 4:
- moderate to strong +PNA
- strong to very strong -AO
- moderate to very strong -EPO
- moderate to strong -WPO
- so one of the greatest 3 week long combos of +PNA, -AO, -EPO, -WPO on record
- strong to moderate MJO phases 6-7 and weak phase 8
- neutral NAO averaged out with no strong anomalies 

11 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Its still the same time period and there's still a decent chance of wintry weather IMO. No guarantees of warmth and severe yet. 

0Z Euro: nice snow NE NC AM of Feb 13th:

33 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

All 2m temp forecasts are the same though. It’s just how the anomalies are interpreted. 

Would agree that EPS are running slightly cold of GEFS/GEPS suites. 

 I hate to see such large discrepancies in anomalies when comparing sources. It’s not comforting to say the least.

 Maybe they are and I have no evidence to the contrary at least right now, but how do you know for sure that the 2m temp forecasts themselves between Euro native and WB are the same?

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

I believe the ECMWF native site is still using 1981-2010 climate normals, while the wxbell site is using the warmer 1991-2020 normals. The actual 2m temps should be the same, but the newer 1991-2020 normals will appear colder because the baseline is warmer, which is what we should expect in a warmer climate. 

Raw 2m temps are produced by the models themselves. It’s up to what dataset you want to use for the anomalies. 

 There’s no indication that the Euro native site is using 1981-2010 for its climo base. Is it possible you’re mixing up Tropical Tidbits with the Euro native base? TT does use 1981-2010 as that’s what’s shown on many of their maps. Regarding the Euro native site itself, it refers to the last 20 years for its climo base. So, that means a base of 2006-2025 for the in-house Euro maps. Compared to the 1991-2020 base of WxBell, that means the climo base for the native Euro maps is actually warmer than rather than colder than WB. So, if the only difference between WB and native Euro were the climo base and WB didn’t have algorithm issues, then the WB anomaly maps would actually be a little warmer rather than colder than the native Euro maps. So, that means that the WB cold bias is actually even worse rather than better when considering climo base differences!

 So, there really is a big problem with WB Euro maps. Thus, if anything, WB Euro Weekly NYC 2m anomalies on that map are >3F too cold…perhaps closer to 4F too cold! And don’t forget that out west, that WB map is 5-10F too cold before considering climo base differences based on what I just showed! @MJO812@donsutherland1

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies for last week of February into March look stormy and cold 

Anthony,

 It’s important to be aware that the WxBell Euro EW 2m maps have a notable 2m temp cold bias as I’ve posted about repeatedly. I have an easy way to show this by posting the in-house Euro weeklies maps covering the same period and comparing to this WB map.

Examples:

 -The Rockies and west coast are a very cold -3F to -10F for 2/21-3/22 on your map. What?!?
 
 -Chicago/OH Valley are -2F, Asheville is -3F, Detroit is -4F, DC/Richmond are -3F, ATL/CLT are -1F.

 -Now check out ECMWF’s in-house maps for the truth: no BN on any maps covering the same period for the locations I listed

2/23-3/1:

3/2-8:

3/9-15:

3/16-22:

 So based on the truth, the Rockies and much of the West should be a bit AN instead of well BN. So, that means they’re mainly 5F to 10F too cold on WB!

 The E cities I listed should be NN in Chic, Det, Ohio Valley, DC, Richmond, and +1F in ATL/CLT/ASH. So, that means these locations are 2-4F too cold on WB.

 WxBell has NYC at -4F. The truth is that they should be -1F. So, NYC is 3F too cold on WB.

@donsutherland1this remains a problem

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It looks like they fixed whatever always led to a big negative departure over Lake Superior.

It’s the WxBell CFS, not their Euro, that has those weird issues. WxBell Euro just has a straight 2m cold bias. And you must have meant a S. Lake Michigan - departure (not Superior, which actually typically has the opposite, a relative + departure in the E portion) just as this CFS has:

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx Could you please share the Euro Seasonal for March if you have it? I keep seeing people crying on twitter that it’s a “torch” but I have yet to see a single image. Just wondering if it’s actually as bad as they are saying? 

 Tweets are often exaggerations as we know. The new Euro for March is still mainly warmer than normal but no torch as it’s mainly only slightly AN since it’s cooler than the forecast from a month ago:

Last month’s Euro for March:

Today’s Euro for March: not as mild with only ~1F AN NE, 2 AN DC, Chicago, Detroit, and RDU, and 2-2.5 AN ATL/MEM for example:

April also came in cooler than it had last month.

 I am wary, however, about WxBell Euro 2m temp anomalies having a cold bias due to their algos. So, you probably have to add at least 1F to what I said to adjust for that bias. So, more like at least 2F AN NE and at least 3-3.5 AN in the other cities I listed. So, again not as warm as last month’s forecast and not really a torch, but still fairly mild especially after the bias correction. I can’t find March by itself at the ecmwf site, itself, unfortunately.

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

That’s during the morning of 2/13, the morning before Valentine’s Day. I was referring to a storm on Val. Day that’s been showing up on some runs and being posted about here. Regardless, it’s still way out there and will change.

12Z GFS and Euro ask “what Val. Day storm?” They fwiw show sunny high pressure. But that’s still 9 days out, a relative eternity in relation to model accuracy.

37 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Come on, you're smart enough to know better surely.

 Good point! I’m just trying to generate discussion. I know he’s always been very strongly cold-biased (due to a combo of his being a cold weenie plus cold’s much better for business/traffic/likes) and I’ve never been shy about saying so, but sometimes he ends up right. Could this be one of those times?

 Of course, I’m responding to a person who proudly prefers warmth based on nearly all of your recent posts and username. Nothing wrong with that, of course and you have company here and especially elsewhere. Different strokes for different folks!  

 This is very telling (add much of the Triad to CLT):

Posted by JB a few hours ago:

Northeast likely Never Pulls out of BN pattern

Opinions?

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

theoretically it has to give out at some point and we see a significant warm up. at least that's what im hoping for. i see no point in a cold march and april. as soon as it hits march 1st i yearn for 72 and sunny

 I want BN temps 365 days of the year. But keep in mind that I’m in a place that’s heavily dominated by heat and humidity and where “cold” is very tolerable and quite enjoyable. Anytime I can get an export of dry Canadian air I’m a happy camper and love being outside! A “cold” April here (say 5 BN) would be highs averaging ~73 and lows averaging 50. How much more pleasant can it be than that? Everything is relative. My main dislike is high dewpoints. Even 80s with sub 50 dewpoints are pleasant.

11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

This has to be at least a B+ winter 

 This has been an A+ winter in terms of excitement as well as fascinating/very interesting nearly nonstop forecast discussions! There had been more than one winter before these last 2 that were, frankly, mainly boring in the SE forecast threads.

 Light snow, sleet, and graupel have been falling this morning in NE GA and also down to S Forsyth County and N and E Cobb County (N ATL burbs)! This is the winter that keeps on giving in GA!

 Following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as I expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table