GaWx
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After 3 99s this summer so far, KSAV had 100 today!
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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:
Thanks, Chris
Keep in mind that even when assuming a bias, this is the coldest chart late May through early July overall for 80N+ compared to the same charts back to 1958. So, isn’t it an apples to apples comparison if one says it’s the coldest DMI chart for 80N for this period?
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Per TAO, 5 day averaged SSTs of 30C+ reached not only 180 but also to 170W at 0N as early as April 22nd of 2015:
Location: 0N 170W 22 Apr 2015 to 22 May 2015 ( 7 times, 1 blocks) Gen. Date Jul 9 2026
Units: Sea Surface Temperature (C), -9.99 = missing
Time: 1200 22 Apr 2015 to 1200 22 May 2015 (index 1 to 7, 7 times)
Depth (M): 1 QUALITY
YYYYMMDD HHMM SST Q
20150422 1200 30.04 1.
20150427 1200 -9.99 0
20150502 1200 -9.99 0
20150507 1200 29.85 1
20150512 1200 29.89 1
20150517 1200 29.91 1
20150522 1200 30.06 1Time: 1200 3 Dec 2015 to 1200 2 Jan 2016 (index 49 to 55, 7 times)
Depth (M): 1 QUALITY
YYYYMMDD HHMM SST Q
20151203 1200 30.62 1
20151208 1200 30.68 1
20151213 1200 30.76 1
20151218 1200 30.53 1
20151223 1200 30.26 1
20151228 1200 30.29 1
20160102 1200 30.23 1——————
This year it was still <29C in April and took til June 1st to exceed 30C although it’s been mainly rising since:
Location: 0N 170W 2 Apr 2026 to 6 Jul 2026 ( 20 times, 1 blocks) Gen. Date Jul 9 2026
Units: Sea Surface Temperature (C), -9.99 = missing
Time: 1200 2 Apr 2026 to 1200 6 Jul 2026 (index 1 to 20, 20 times)
Depth (M): 1 QUALITY
YYYYMMDD HHMM SST Q
20260402 1200 28.01 2
20260407 1200 28.14 2
20260412 1200 28.35 2
20260417 1200 28.65 2
20260422 1200 28.74 2
20260427 1200 28.94 2
20260502 1200 29.17 2
20260507 1200 29.36 2
20260512 1200 29.34 2
20260517 1200 29.67 2
20260522 1200 29.59 2
20260527 1200 29.82 2
20260601 1200 30.05 2-
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The WCS daily PDO has plunged from -0.19 on June 24th to -1.43 just 2 weeks later:
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1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:
An interesting trend with the QBO this decade, with it wildly swinging back and forth from +QBO to -QBO each year):
2020-21: +QBO (11.15)
2021-22: -QBO (-26.34)
2022-23: +QBO (12.89)
2023-24: -QBO (-25.86)
2024-25: +QBO (13.78)
2025-26: -QBO (-26.92)
2026-27: +QBO?
(2027-28: -QBO?)
(2028-29: +QBO?)
Dips: below -26 in ‘25, ‘24, ‘22, ‘18, ‘15, ‘12, ‘10, ‘07, ‘05, ‘96, ‘94, ‘84;
But none in 1983-1948: why?
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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:
Even though the areas north of 60N had their warmest June on record, a small area of the Arctic to the north of Alaska had their coldest June on record.
This Beaufort Sea region is a key area in determining what the annual sea ice minimum in September will be. Early season weak dipole patterns which are colder in this region have been common since 2013. It indicates locally fewer melt ponds and a better pattern for sea ice retention toward the Pacific side of the Arctic.
Seasons like 2012 and 2020 had very strong dipole patterns which preconditioned the ice for a big melt out by August and September. Most seasons since 2013 have finished in the 4.0 to 4.9 million sq km range for extent.
Only 2012 and 2020 finished below 4.0 million sq km due to extreme dipole patterns and early record melt ponding.
For the combined area poleward of 60N, this was the warmest June on record - despite the fact that a portion of the area north of Alaska had its coldest June on record (since 1940). @alaskawx.bsky.social10:51 PM · Jul 6, 2026Arctic Temperatures
June was very mild over a large part of the Arctic. About 70 percent of the Arctic (land and seas poleward of 60°N) had a warmer than average June relative to the 1991-2020 baseline (Fig. 1). But almost 85 percent of Arctic land areas were milder than normal. About 12 percent of the Arctic had the warmest June since 1950 in ERA5 reanalysis, while only 1 percent had the coldest June in the past 77 years.
The warmth was most dramatic in western Siberia. For Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug this was by far the warmest June on record. For the third time in the past five years, Svalbard had the warmest June on record. Parts of the Northwest Territories and southern Nunavut, Canada also had the warmest June on record. Areas with below normal temperatures were more restricted. June was quite chilly north of about 75N over the Canadian Arctic Islands and westward into the Arctic basin east of the dateline as well as on Alaska’s North Slope.
Of special note was the extreme warmth in northwest Siberia on June 25. Beliy Island (73.3°N), just offshore of the Yamal Peninsula, reached 28.3C (83F). According to M. Herrera on his “Extreme Temperatures Around the World” Bluesky account, this is (apparently) the highest temperature on record so far north anywhere in the world. This heat was concurrent with the late June western and central European heatwave but was entirely distinct, as Russia east of Ural Mountains was generally cooler than normal during this time.
Since 1950, this was easily the warmest June on record for the Arctic overall (Fig. 2) and the mildest since 2020. Arctic lands also had the highest June average temperature.
Meanwhile, per DMI charts back to 1958, the mean temp. for the Arctic N of 80N continues being the coldest on record (I’ve been looking at all years’ charts) thus continuing the coldest overall there since the 2nd half of May:
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52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
This season will definitely average +PNA and probably safely so. I think we get an RNA month, it may be December.
I agree strongly. Out of the last 10 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs, which goes back to 1982-3, 90% (9) had all 3 months +0.25+! The only one that didn’t was the last one, 2023-4. That one still had 2 of the 3 at +0.25+ with Feb at +0.09. March of ‘24 went back up to +0.45.
Since 1982-3, 90% (9) of Marches were +0.25+ with only March of 2003 not as it was neutral (-0.07).
In contrast to 1982-3+, only 1 of the prior 7 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs had all 3 months at +0.25+!
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9 hours ago, olafminesaw said:
A New Orleans special
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2026
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN BY VARIOUS QUALITY
CONTROLLED OBSERVATIONS SYSTEMS FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
*************MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX (113F AND ABOVE)*************
LOCATION MAXIMUM TIME/DATE COMMENTS
HT INDEX MEASURED
(DEG F)
SOUTH CAROLINA
..BEAUFORT COUNTY
BEAUFORT MCAS 114.0 256 PM 7/08 ASOS
..BERKELEY COUNTY
HUGER 114.0 114 PM 7/08 MESONET
WITHERBEE 113.0 1215 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL
..CHARLESTON COUNTY
AWENDAW/WAMBW 116.0 147 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL
CHARLESTON INTL ARPT 114.0 308 PM 7/08 ASOS
CHARLESTON EXE ARPT 113.0 1255 PM 7/08 AWOS
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 113.0 200 PM 7/08 OFFICIAL NWS OB.
..COLLETON COUNTY
BENNETTS POINT 113.0 1200 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL-
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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:
Last year vs this year at this time, ENSO and the PMM stealing the show….
Thanks, Adam. Note how much the WPAC has cooled from Korean Pen. to E of Japan! Also, check out the impressive N Atlantic cooling! That ATL cooling along with cooling tropics (-AMO trend) may be indicative of a major pattern change toward colder E US winters coming up.
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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
Bruh I can't watch the deep south get pummeled again, lol Wonder if 72-73 had strong blocking that produced that snowstorm down there?
Moderate +NAO
1973 2 1 0.250
1973 2 2 0.252
1973 2 3 0.237
1973 2 4 0.525
1973 2 5 0.834
1973 2 6 0.944
1973 2 7 0.807
1973 2 8 0.672
1973 2 9 0.656
1973 2 10 0.718
1973 2 11 0.924
Moderate to strong +AO1973 2 1 1.868
1973 2 2 1.709
1973 2 3 0.930
1973 2 4 0.511
1973 2 5 1.958
1973 2 6 2.915
1973 2 7 2.326
1973 2 8 1.437
1973 2 9 1.385
1973 2 10 1.560
Neutral to weak +PNA1973 2 1 0.304
1973 2 2 0.161
1973 2 3 0.229
1973 2 4 0.295
1973 2 5 0.179
1973 2 6 -0.004
1973 2 7 -0.097
1973 2 8 0.154
1973 2 9 0.349
1973 2 10 0.166Moderate to strong -EPO
1973 02 01 74.97
1973 02 02 -15.68
1973 02 03 -165.84
1973 02 04 -262.56
1973 02 05 -228.20
1973 02 06 -209.60
1973 02 07 -231.67
1973 02 08 -209.49
1973 02 09 -159.81
1973 02 10 -29.44
Neutral to weak +WPO1973 02 01 247.35
1973 02 02 202.33
1973 02 03 119.68
1973 02 04 71.22
1973 02 05 36.31
1973 02 06 9.54
1973 02 07 -8.75
1973 02 08 -19.39
1973 02 09 0.37
1973 02 10 21.42-
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It’s still an oppressive 97.3 at my place with mostly sunny skies. I don’t know what the high was but my guess would be ~99 (about the hottest of the year so far) and HI’s way up there.
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CSU 7/7/26 update: This forecast is predicting the weakest season since 2013. I wouldn’t at all mind a break here in the very hard hit SE overall since 2016.
“We further reduce our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipate a well below-normal season. Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
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6 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:
Not familiar with the author but interesting reading on a hot summer day regarding increased potential for positive PNA this winter and some of the data and science behind this potential pattern.
I just posted this elsewhere:
1. Asheville temp. records go back to 1876 and thus include 1877-8. Whereas Dec was mild/AN at 43.6, Jan was actually snowy and cold/BN (35.2) and Feb was NN (39.8). So, DJF averaged 39.5, which is actually NN.
In Jan, they had well above normal snow with 4” on the 4th and 4.5” on the 31st! They had a low of 7F on the 7th. So, I wonder why this source per your post said:
The winter of 1877–1878 in North Carolina was remarkably warm, largely recognized as an exceptionally mild season brought on by a historic 'Super' El Niño event.
This doesn’t at all jibe with this Asheville data and I haven’t found any data for any other locale in NC going that far back.
Data from here:https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp
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2. Regarding other super-El Nino winters in the SE:
-1888-8: Feb 1889 had a SE major snowstorm and was cold allowing for DJF to avg BN
-1957-8: cold winter overall with cold in Jan and especially Feb. and was snowy overall, esp in Feb, which included deep SE
-1965-6: cold winter overall thanks to quite cold in Jan and overall snowy in part of SE thanks to Jan/Feb
-1972-3: historic ZR Jan N GA and vicinity; historic snowstorm Feb AL to NC, including deep SE; overall NN temps with BN Feb
-1982-3: very snowy much of SE, including historic snow much of area in spring! ATL had biggest snowstorm as well as snowiest winter since 1939-40! It hasn’t been matched since! Overall NN temps.
-1991-2: ATL and nearby had a major snowstorm in Jan. Otherwise it was a mild winter.
-1997-8: NN temps overall with cold Dec, mild Jan, and NN Feb
-2015-6: AN temps overall due to warmest on record Dec as JF were actually BN to NN
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In summary,
-a super-Nino doesn’t point to an expected warm SE winter as only 2 of the 9 averaged mild in DJF. Only one, 1991-2, averaged mild throughout DJF.
-Super El Niño winters tend to average mild in the N tier of the US, not the SE.
-Dec will be favored to be AN as 6 of these 9 had a mild Dec, including the warmest on record
-Jan/Feb averaged out will be favored to be BN with most of the 9 BN overall, with some quite cold months in some cases
-AN wintry precip prospects are better than avg. All it takes is one major snow in the SE in many cases.
-AN rainfall prospect is the best news of all due to the drought!-
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45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Just be careful with that severe-weather-weenie site.
Ray, Good advice! I’m careful with potential bias of forecasts from any source, especially internet based looking for clicks or likes ($).
This source is putting some emphasis on the cooling N Atlantic and AMO decline tendencies as an additional important factor to consider for especially the E US, something I haven’t seen a whole lot here and elsewhere (not specifically you though). So, this gives a different perspective (both Atlantic and Pacific influences) from most discussions I’ve seen with lots of support from both historic data and latest forecasts from 3 of the most widely followed seasonal models, none of which are warm this winter as a whole for the bulk of the E US. Also, note that this article from a European source also includes warm maps for the upcoming European winter.-
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A Cold Atlantic Anomaly Returns as Super El Niño Shapes Winter 2026/2027 Early Forecast Signals
Together, the Atlantic cold blob and Super El Niño signals are already giving strong early hints for Winter 2026/2027 pressure and temperature across the United States, Canada, and Europe.
If we look at the actual observation image below, it shows the real ocean temperature trends over time. It looks nearly identical to the model simulation of a weakening AMOC. This supports the fact that the AMOC is indeed weakening, even faster than first anticipated.
This temperature signature of the warm Gulf Stream area and cold North Atlantic is one of the strongest indicators of the AMOC weakening.
Data shows the formation and growth of a new “cold blob” pattern, forecast to last into 2027.
You can see a very clear cold ocean anomaly, stretching back towards the Gulf Stream area. This anomaly is much larger than last year, continuing the long-term cooling trend of the subpolar North Atlantic.
You can see that the main cold area is linked back into the Gulf Stream and towards the east coast of the United States.
Below is an even more dramatic analysis image. It shows the 1-year difference in surface temperature for the last week of June. This shows that the North Atlantic is much colder currently than it was this time last year. What stands out most is the Gulf Stream area, which shows several degrees lower temperatures compared to last year.
North Atlantic Cold Anomaly and Super El Niño Forecast
North American Pattern: Where Ocean and Atmosphere Collide
The atmospheric pattern we found the connection to is called the Pacific-North American pattern, or PNA.
This basically tells us that a Fall cold blob anomaly in the Atlantic corresponds to a positive PNA pattern in Winter.
Not meaning that the cold anomaly itself is responsible for a colder winter over the eastern United States, but it can be like an indicator of what is to come.
But this year, we have a far stronger driver on the rise, the Super El Niño. Below is the analysis of the winter period during the last 4 Super El Niño events. You can actually see a very similar pattern to the +PNA above.
Below is the December 2026 pressure forecast from the ECMWF model that we used above for the ocean temperatures. We also added the CanSIPS model to compare different predictions. You can see that both forecasts show a strong positive PNA pattern, with a high-pressure system over Canada, a deep low in the North Pacific, and a low-pressure zone over the central and southern United States.
We can add another model into the mix, the CFS from the United States CPCcenter, which covers the whole Winter 2026/2027 period. Below is the pressure forecast that again shows an identical pattern to the two predictions above, with a clear Super El Niño pattern and a positive PNA over North America, with a ridge into Europe.
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This is as much about the high dewpoints (in or near upper 70s) as it is about the heat, itself (mid to upper 90s):
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values 112 to 116
possible.
* WHERE...Coastal southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.
* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening.
* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during
extreme heat and high humidity events.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.-
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One TS from a broken line just brought me approaching 1/2” over the last ~30 minutes with it lightening up now. This is the first measurable rain so far this month for where I live as the big Tybee TS that I experienced late Sunday afternoon missed my home to the E. Yesterday, it appeared I was going to get decent rain but it fell apart before I could get anything more than a T.
*Edit: my final tally ~0.4”
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16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:
1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.
Regarding super strength El Niño seasons, 1957-8, 1972-3 and 1982-3 were all fantastic to historic in the SE overall relative to climo in terms of wintry precip. Also, Feb of 1889 had a major snow in the SE. 1965-6 had historic cold in late Jan. In addition, Jan and especially Feb of 1958 were quite cold! Most importantly, they are usually wet, which we so desperately need to relieve the drought!
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6 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:
yeah they’re not “cooling” by a full 2.05C from Dec to March. the seasonal climatological mean is also increasing.
Anomalies cool by 2.05C Dec to Mar as that post was specifically addressing anomalies. That would be a record rate of the cooling of the anomalies Dec to Mar vs the current record being in 72-73 (1.87C).
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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:
This is the latest RAOB update, the +QBO is still descending, now down to 40mb
In other news, the +IOD gets going soon
And the ++PMM continues
@Gawx Has there ever been an El Niño event that saw the 30C isotherm end up east of the dateline? I know 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 didn’t do it….Adam, the monthly ERSST for Nino 4, which is from 150W to 160E, was warmest on record in these months:
30.21: Nov. ‘23
30.19: Jun ‘26
30.13: Nov ‘15
30.04: Dec ‘23
30.00: May ‘26
With the midpoint of Nino 4 being E of dateline (175W), the odds are very high that 30C made it E of the dateline prior to ‘26, especially in late ‘23 and late ‘15. However, it very likely didn’t happen in summer of ‘23 although it very well could have also in spring-fall ‘15 based on Nino 4 being 28.8 to 28.9 then.
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The latest CFS (10 days of runs ens. mean) is at the highest of any I’ve saved with relative peaks way up at ~3.4 (Nov) and nearly 3.25 (SON and OND)! The record highest since 1950 are well below these:
1 month: 2.69 (Jan 1983), 2.56 (Dec 1982), 2.48 (Nov 2015), 2.44 (Oct 1997), and 2.43 (Nov 1997)
3 month: 2.52 (NDJ 1982-3), 2.49 (DJF 1982-3), 2.43 (OND 1982), 2.38 (SON 1997), and 2.37 (NDJ 2015-6)
The most rapid monthly rates of warming of the mean is from July’s ~1.46 to Aug’s ~2.30, a warming of ~0.84, followed by a warming of ~0.70 from Aug’s ~2.30 to Sep’s ~3.00. So, the progged CFS rate of warming from July to Sep of ~1.54 will be the key period to see if the progged peak is actually going to verify closely. The record fastest 2 month warming is only ~1.3 (Nov 1954-Jan 1955 and Aug-Oct 1982).
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Note that they still show near record breaking rates of cooling Dec-Mar after these record shattering peaks with a mean plunge from Dec’s ~2.95 to Jan’s ~2.16 to Feb’s ~1.6 to Mar’s ~0.9. That 3 month progged cooling of ~2.05 Dec to Mar would be similar to the record rate of cooling for Dec to Mar of 1972-3, which was 1.87.
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Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd:
June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated.
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The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues:
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11 hours ago, bluewave said:
Just remember that with our last super El Niño which was much weaker than this one, the seasonal forecasts including the ECWMF were significantly too cool for what verified from the long range forecasts.
Forecast from August 2023
Verification
10 hours ago, mitchnick said:And don't forget that the last 2 winters the Euro seasonal was too warm in the NE. And since it is impossible to have statistical data that supports the notion that the current Euro seasonal is inherently biased too cool for Niños in its current upgraded version (and I don't see that being possible since there have been upgrades since the 2023 season), I honestly don't see the relevance of prior year forecasts. All we can take away, imho, is that the Euro seasonal has been inaccurate with its winter temp forecasts in the NE 3 out of the last 3 years, twice being too warm and once being too cool.
Edit: And let's not forget this month's forecast looks very similar to other seasonal modeling.
The NDJ Euro fcast made July 2023 was actually pretty close in most of the U.S. as per this post I made (see link below) with a good portion within 1F. Only the N tier was several degrees too cold:In addition as I said in the same post, the Euro July NDJ of both ‘25 and ‘24 were significantly too warm in the E US.
-‘23: I could call it either close overall or net slightly too cold due to the N tier-‘22 was a bit too cold in most of the E US, but that’s the only one like that since 2017!
-‘21 was slightly too warm in the E US
-‘20 and ‘19 were pretty close in the E US
-‘18 was a bit too warm NE US and close in the MidAtlantic/SE
-’17 was too warm in the E US
So for E US in their July NDJ forecasts, the tally is 5 too warm (‘25, ‘24, ‘21, ‘18, ‘17) and only 2 too cold even if I count ‘23 (‘23 and ‘22) as too cold. That in no way suggests the likelihood that the ‘26 NDJ just issued will verify too cold (sample size of 9 is decent).
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July ‘26 obs
in Southeastern States
Posted
Very strong storm incoming! Very windy and fierce looking skies just to west! Small limbs falling! A few big raindrops.
So far just a few big drops. This batch formed per radar from collision of inland outflow and seabreeze boundaries. Cool stuff! Rarely a dull moment this time of year.
Edit 9:20 PM: There was never more than a trace from those aforementioned few drops at my place. However, there was heavy rain for a pretty short period from the NW part of the county to downtown and also from Skidaway and Wilmington Islands to Tybee. In addition, much of the coastal counties of S SC got plentiful rain.