GaWx

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The updated June monthly record for the UK during the most recent climate change-enhanced heatwave is 37.7C (99.9F).

Key contextual point from World Weather Attribution:

This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed...

 Absolutely, Don. It still would have been another historic heatwave even without AGW but not near as historic as it got due to the added effects from AGW. A larger portion of this extreme heat was very likely due to the pattern, itself, as opposed to AGW, itself. But AGW means a higher baseline as your quote said.
 

 The global baseline average has warmed ~2.5F since the late 1800s and not far from that even since just the mid-20th century if I’m not mistaken with the Arctic significantly higher and the tropics lower. How much do you figure the W Europe climate baseline has warmed?

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Region 1.2 is pretty volatile given it's so small, so it may be helpful to consider region 3.

 Agree 100% about the volatility of Nino 1+2, but I’m talking about Nino 3.4, for which the latest CFS has a record obliterating high in Nov followed by a record rate of cooling afterward. The CFS’ volatility is not unlike how 1+2 can often be! But it is out on its own with that rapid a cooling of 3.4. And I agree about the atmospheric lag, regardless.

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So far the CFS (relative) is the only model showing the extremely rapid drop. That said, once DT and JB see that, they will be all over it like white on rice. EVERY El Nino weakens dramatically as we go through Winter. And this one is forecast to remain strong through Feb or March, no different than the last 2 super El Nino's (1997-1998, 2015-2016). Plus it’s the atmospheric response to the Nino 3.4 anomaly that matters.

Just using 1997-98 and 2015-16 as the most recent super El Niño examples…both peaked the last week of November, both rapidly weakened throughout the winter (with the most rapid weakening occurring from Jan-Mar). 2015-16 was a start to finish +QBO winter, like this one is expected to be, 1997-98 started as a +QBO in 1997, then transitioned to a -QBO. DT and JB both argued that the rapid weakening in 2016 was going to result in some miracle winter comeback in the east. I remember January of 2016 vividly. They were screaming to the heavens that the El Niño was rapidly falling apart, the easterlies and trade winds were coming back with a vengeance and that the east was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with KU’s crippling the I-95 corridor in February and March. We all know how that worked out….they utterly embarrassed themselves. I had to do some research for the 1997-98 winter (DT wasn’t around back then), but I was able to find it. JB was still at Accuweather at the time and he argued the same thing he did in 2016. He was warning people in the east in January ‘98 not to “write off winter yet” and was hyping that there was going to be some miracle winter comeback in February and March because of the rapid weakening of the El Niño and the transition to a -QBO, which he said was going to result in high latitude blocking and a turn to arctic cold and big snowstorms up the east coast. Another epic fail

I agree with you on a lot of this, especially the late winter hype and the fact that the CFS is out on its own with this record rate of cooling. However, at the same time, I’ll say these things:

-It’s fair to post this aspect of the CFS as you did the first CFS post of the morning. Not only a record peak, but also a record cool off afterward (V shape).

-This cooling of 1.3 from Nov to Jan would be a new record cooling as the current record per ERSST monthlies is the 1.0 cooling from Nov to Jan of 2002-3

-Sometimes they’ve actually strengthened from Nov to Jan

On 6/25/2026 at 7:06 PM, GaWx said:

Some of this is almost certainly the GFS doing GFS kinds of things (i.e., too hot especially after day 5). The GFS does this frequently in summer. It could easily be 5-10 F too hot. I’d bet heavily against it being this hot. Quite hot is likely but not this hot.

 Bump to show that once again the GFS looks like it is going to end up quite a bit too hot:

 Here is an apples to apples comparison with 24 hour highs on the GFS runs of 12Z 6/25 vs 6Z 6/29: still miserable and dangerous for sure but most of Carolinas are 5-9F less hot! This is a common bias of the GFS in summer in the SE US on mainly sunny days.

12Z 6/25 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5:

6Z 6/29 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5:

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Based on how consistent the CFS has been, expect the Euro to increase to the +3.5 to +4 traditional ONI range also on its release coming for July 5th.

This makes sense given the all -time record SST warmth we are currently experiencing so early on.

Continuing WWBs will allow this event to keep intensifying at a record rate. The forecasts will be more accurate as get further past the spring predictability barrier. 
 

 

 

 

 This is again indicative of a not nearly as E based El Niño as 1997-8 with the slope from E to W not nearly as steep.

 The latest CFS has its warmest relative 3.4 monthly peak yet, way up at a record high obliterating +3.3 in Nov! But note that it also still cools it at a record rapid pace all the way down to +2.0 in Jan, +1.5 in Feb, and +1.0 in Mar:

@PhiEaglesfan712

 Updated relative weeklies:

Midweek date……..1+2………3……..3.4……..4

29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.0        0.9        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.8
 17JUN2026         2.4        1.3        1.1        0.8
 24JUN2026         2.5        1.5        1.2        0.6

 The CFS is still forecasting Nino 4 to reach a +2.5C monthly peak, which is not at all indicative of a relatively severely E based Nino like 1997, when it peaked at a mere +0.7C. It would even obliterate the monthly record peak of +1.5 of 2023-4 as well as the +1.4 of 2015-6, +1.1 of 2009-10, +0.9 of 1957-8, +0.9 of 1991-2, +0.8 of 1965-6, and +0.7 of 1972-3:

 The Arctic mean temp. N of 80N, helped by a +AO, still didn’t reach freezing as it actually cooled very slightly yesterday! The prior latest on record (back to 1958) to first exceed 0C was June 20th (2013). Will it finally exceed 0C before the end of the month? Time’s running out and the model consensus has BN temps persisting. It had come within 0.35C on June 27th and then yesterday fell a little to 0.47C away:

The UKMET keeps developing this into a weak TD and then dissipating it well offshore the SE US as it moves SW, WSW, W, and then WNW. I doubt this ever becomes a TD when considering other models:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.06.2026

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 32.5N 72.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2026 36 31.5N 71.9W 1012 26
0000UTC 01.07.2026 48 31.1N 72.1W 1011 26
1200UTC 01.07.2026 60 30.8N 73.0W 1012 23
0000UTC 02.07.2026 72 30.8N 74.3W 1013 21
1200UTC 02.07.2026 84 31.1N 75.8W 1015 18
0000UTC 03.07.2026 96 31.8N 77.2W 1016 18
1200UTC 03.07.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

12Z UKMET is fairly similar to the 0Z: TD that stays weak and then dissipates well offshore:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.06.2026

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.1N 72.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2026 48 32.1N 72.3W 1013 25
0000UTC 01.07.2026 60 31.4N 72.5W 1012 24
1200UTC 01.07.2026 72 31.0N 72.8W 1013 22
0000UTC 02.07.2026 84 31.2N 74.4W 1014 20
1200UTC 02.07.2026 96 31.6N 75.7W 1015 17
0000UTC 03.07.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

The 12Z UKMET had nothing of note, even less than yesterday’s 0Z’s very weak low hitting near Daytona Beach. But the new 0Z is the 1st of its runs with a TD transitioning from an extratropical low that forms on a front. It then moves WSW but remains weak and then gradually weakens followed by dissipation on Thu well off the SE coast:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.06.2026

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 32.1N 71.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2026 60 32.1N 70.7W 1011 26
0000UTC 01.07.2026 72 31.2N 71.3W 1012 25
1200UTC 01.07.2026 84 30.4N 71.5W 1013 25
0000UTC 02.07.2026 96 30.5N 72.7W 1015 22
1200UTC 02.07.2026 108 30.6N 74.3W 1016 16
0000UTC 03.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The values show -PNA for 09-10, unless this whole thing is wrong: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 Those are the NAO values, not PNAs.

 Per DMI, the daily mean temp in the Arctic N of 80N has still not reached 0C! As of today (6/27), it’s still barely <0C at -0.35C:

 Going all of the way back to 1958, the previous latest to first exceed 0C was a full week earlier, June 20th, and that was in 2013:

 So, even if it finally exceeds 0C tomorrow, that would still be a whopping 8 days later than the previous latest on record of June 20th! I checked every year.

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Heavy popup over me just started!

The above popup, which didn’t last too long, still gave me ~0.3-0.4”. And now a new popup line of thunderstorms along the seabreeze is moving in with heavy rainfall potential per radar. This 2nd one ended up fizzling quickly as it came in after just a brief period of mainly just moderate rain. I estimate my total for today at 1/2”, which gets me to ~5.15” MTD. This further delays the earliest I’ll need to restart watering.

I’m wondering if W Yellowstone Gateway, which is at 6,666 ft, could get some snow:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING 
TO NOON MDT MONDAY... 

* WHAT...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 
4 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BIG SKY, WEST YELLOWSTONE, TARGHEE PASS, 
AND RAYNOLDS PASS 
942 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026

TONIGHT 
COLDER. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN 
THE EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 31 TO 37.

IF W Yell. Gate can somehow get any measurable SN late tonight, it would be a new record latest in season meas. on record by 20 days! They’ve had no meas. June 9th-Sep 14th although records go back only to 2007. But even just a T would be notable as they’ve had only 2 Ts June 28th-Sep 4th since 2007:

Records:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tfx
 

https://grizzlyrv.com/what-is-the-elevation-of-west-yellowstone/

Heavy popup over me just started!

Edit: I forgot to post about a popup line that developed along the seabreeze midafternoon yesterday that gave me ~0.25” (on June 26th), which had brought my MTD as of 6/26 to 4.65”.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

No, it’s not basin-wide like 2015. Since the biggest player this winter, by far and away is going to be a record-breaking super El Niño, 2009-10 doesn’t match, not one iota. This Nino is going to be a completely overwhelming signal that will trump anything else in the atmosphere or the rest of the oceans. It’s not an analog, not even close. We disagree. This is going to be a very easy winter to predict, there’s nothing hard or challenging about it, not at all. Easiest one in years. And I don’t agree at all with your assessment that this El Nino developing like 2015-16. This one is very, very clearly east-based and it’s going to stay that way. We can split atoms all we want and say it’s “hybrid”, “basin-wide”, “migrating Modoki”, “in betweener” or whatever other adjectives we can come up with and it’s not going to change that fact. It’s been abundantly clear for a month now that this is easily going to be the strongest super El Niño since 1950, at the very least, more likely the strongest one of all time, both in RONI and ONI

 These are progging 4 to get way up to +2.4 to +2.5, which is way higher than the record high of only +1.5 (‘23-4), +1.4 (‘15-6), +1.2 (‘09-10), +1.1 (‘68-9), +1.0 (‘18-9). Even the relatives for ‘26 on CFS/Euro are way up at ~+2.0!

‘97-8 and ‘82-3 were only +0.7!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

New lemon off SE coast:

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

New lemon off the SE coast. Minor to modest development signal on the guidance but perhaps there’s just enough of a window for weak development.

0Z UKMET has a 1015 mb low hitting Daytona Thu AM moving WNW underneath a very strong H5 high centered over W VA although this is the model run exception rather than the rule. This is too weak to make it to actual TD status although it’s its first run with anything of note.

33 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Last few days or a week or so - have been seeing pretty frequent Cloudflare "Bad Gateway" 502 errors from the forum. Generally a refresh of the page loads it (albeit slowly). Anything going on? 

It’s been awful. It got better this morning, but got bad again this afternoon. The last few days have been worst I’ve seen since joining in 2010! @Wow

1 hour ago, SUNYGRAD said:

still a problem.  

 

51 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Worse for me today Larry!

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah it seemed to be working somewhat better before mid-morning but now it's as bad as ever

Yep, the lag came back. 

 The latest Euro and Icon are suggesting that H5 heights will reach a max of ~598 dm at some point over GSO within the July 1-3 period. They have as much as 597 dm as of 8AM. A 597 would more than likely be approaching the all time record high for there at 12Z, which often runs a couple of dm lower than an afternoon max. For comparison, it reached ~597-598 dm at GSO at 12Z on 7/7/1986 per old maps I saw yesterday. I have no way of knowing if that’s the highest on record at 12Z though without spending at least many hours going through numerous maps.

Finally there is no lag! Hopefully it’s done! Anyone else seeing a big improvement? Maybe wow fixed it?

@Maggie Valley Steve