GaWx

58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I checked the radar and saw them doing the split around you

E ATL burbs doing quite well though.

Does anyone have a link to radar estimated rainfall?

The most solid Nino support from AAM yet if this CFS prog is to be believed:

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1982-83 was hands down the worst winter of the strong nino bunch here. 

1957-8, 1972-3, and 1982-3 had the most wintry precipitation of the super Ninos in the SE US. Also, 1957-8 was cold vs the NN of 72-3 and 82-3. 65-6 was also cold.

27 minutes ago, roardog said:

What is the site for the daily PDO readings? I can’t remember what it is. 

Click on 2nd chart on right at this link:

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

It dropped to -1.04, which is equivalent to the NOAA being in the ~-1.75 to -2 range.

Opinions on N half of ATL metro over next 4 days…should just about everyone expect 1-3”?

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct. Out of all the “recent” super El Niños (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), *at the current point in time*, 2026 is most similar to 1997

Thanks. Actually at the current point in time, I have 2026 to be most similar to 2015: check this out

13MAY2015         1.3        0.7        0.6        0.7
 20MAY2015         1.3        0.5        0.5        0.8

13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982 wasn't W based. That one topped out at +4.6 on Nino 1+2, which is even higher than 1997 (4.1). If anything, 1982 should be E based.

82-83 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.6        

Nino 3: 2.9

Nino 3.4: 2.9

Nino 4: 1.3

97-98 peaks

Nino 1+2: 4.1

Nino 3: 3.3

Nino 3.4: 2.2

Nino 4: 1.1

 I didn’t say 1982 was W based overall. I was specifically referring to the mid May snapshot, when it was actually W based. I said, “In mid May vs 2026”, 1982 was more W based than 2026:

1982: 1+2 was coolest in mid May

12MAY1982        -0.6        0.5        0.4        0.7
 19MAY1982        -0.4        1.0        1.1        1.1

2026: 1+2 is warmest in mid May

13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

 So, as of mid May, 1982 was more W based than 2026. Later (July and beyond), I agree that 1982 clearly transitioned to E based. But my post was referring only to the snapshot as of the current point in time, mid May.

Darwin’s higher than normal SLP is finally starting to contribute to a -SOI. Until yesterday, it’s been mainly due to low Tahiti SLP.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting

Looking at mid May relative 1+2, 1997 was +2.2 and rising (it hit +3.0 in early June and +4.0 in early Aug) vs 2026 being +1.3 and rising. Otherwise, 1997 and 2026 are very close in 3, 3.4, and 4. So, that’s why I have 1997 more E based than 2026 as of the mid May snapshot. It’s all because of 1+2, which has a 0.9C diff although it’s a more volatile area since smaller.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too. 

In mid May vs 2026:

-2023 was more E based

-2015 was similar

-1997 was more E based

-1991 and 1982 were more W based

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....

1. Per that table, 2023 had a record high IOD for the months of Aug and Sep.

2. Keep in mind that IOD levels have had a notable longtime rise though. So, that biases more recent years toward a higher +IOD. Even the warm neutral (as opposed to El Niño) 2019 had a very strong +IOD in autumn/2nd strongest only to 1997! And as I already said, the very weak El Niño of 2018 still was able to have a strong +IOD.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Either way it will be mild, but we would at least have a shot at a decent stretch if you're right.

So the +IOD wasn't that strong in 2015 and 2023??

I’m not @snowman19but I can tell you based on the link below that 2023 was similar to 1997 in having a very strong +IOD. 2018 was next and then 1994.

 1972, 1982, 2006, and 2015 were next (still moderately strong).

 Keep in mind:

-There’s been a decided longterm rise of the IOD in this table. So, it isn’t adjusted for long term trends. That’s why 2018 had such a strong +IOD despite El Niño being weak.

-IOD tends to peak ~Oct-Nov and falls off in winter, especially when strongly positive in autumn. So when moderate to strong +IOD in SON, it about always has had a notably lower DJF vs SON.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The coming winter season is goin to be a good test as to whether the absolute RONI value or the delta between it and the RONI is of greater significance. The key is whether or not we get that "La Nino" half-assed Aleutian low like 2023 again.

 Evidently based on pro mets I follow, having relatively cooler SST anomalies near Australia compared to warmer anomalies to the east of there will be crucial. For 2023, the models, which earlier had the nice E US trough/Aleutian low that we were salivating over, were then erroneously forecasting cooler near Australia, which is pretty typical of El Niño.

 This strong El Niño is great news for the really bad drought the SE has been enduring.

Latest CFS RONI peaks at +2.65 to +2.70 in OND, which would be a record high beating 1982:

Latest CFS ONI is +3.25-30 in OND, meaning keeping the differential near 0.6:

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whereas the warmth this time around looks to setup where? (Or is it too early to tell) Trying to know if I shoild expect a 72-73/97-98 torch or not, lol

 I’ve got the solution. If you want to minimize the chance for a warmer than normal winter where you live, just move down south and your chances will fall substantially!

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Believe it or not, April and May have a slight inverse correlation. There is 0.1 tendency for the NAO in these months to reverse each other. 

Thanks, Chuck. Does it say anything about the May AO, That’s projected right now to be +AO.

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs)

The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27)

FWIW, it appears as of the current GEFS 14 day forecast that we’re probably headed for a net relatively small -NAO for May as a whole.

BoM May RONI not surprisingly reduced from +1.1 to +0.5 but later months actually a bit warmer than prior run with Oct +3.0 vs +2.7 prior run and +2.7 record for a single month (1982)

5/9/26 run: May was at +1.1

5/16/26 run: May down to +0.5 but warmer later months

Weekly relative SSTa update: Nino 3.4 slight rise to +0.5 (Nino threshhold):

Cal wk midpt…...1+2……...3….…..3.4……..…4

01APR2026         0.8       -0.3       -0.3        0.2
 08APR2026         1.1       -0.1       -0.2        0.3
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
 29APR2026         0.7        0.5        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.6        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. 

My educated guess is that the current/daily RONI equivalent is ~+0.5 although like the ONI it is always moving, of course.

Lows in this area were in the mid 50s, significantly below the low 60s normal. Dewpoints are still way down in the low 40s.

This evening it was warm (mid to low 80s), but dewpoints were only in the upper 30s, something sometimes hardly seen in an entire May in this area. So, that along with a decent breeze meant enjoyable walking vs what’s typical for mid May. It was 100% sunny.

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

This tweet is a bit deceptive because whereas 2026 ONI is, indeed, warmer than ‘97 and ‘15, ‘26 RONI is actually slightly cooler than both at the moment. Stay tuned to see what lies ahead!

Latest CDAS suggests resumption of warming started: this is an approximation of ONI but with a slight cold bias (this implies RONI daily equivalent of ~+0.5)