GaWx
-
Posts
18,998 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by GaWx
-
-
After rising to -0.19 on June 24th, the CFS daily PDO has since plunged and is as of July 9th down to -1.50, which is the lowest daily PDO since way back on Nov 8th!
-
2 hours ago, snowman19 said:
We are already way ahead of all other El Niños on record in region 3.4. That aside, once this current WWB/DWKW and the 30C isotherm east of the dateline catches up and does their dirty work over the next month, Paul Roundy thinks this event surpasses 1997 in the far eastern ENSO regions next…subsurface and surface
The TAO buoy data, including the Dateline data found at the links below, totally confirms Roundy’s noting of the lack of a consistent 30C isotherm E of the Dateline in 1997 when considering SSTs along the 180 and 170W longitudes and comparing those to 1997 to 2026. But it’s also important to keep in mind that there’s been a large amount of GW since 1997. So, that by itself gives 2026 a significant advantage. That’s of course why relative measures have been incorporated in products by NOAA and some others worldwide. That being said, this isn’t meant to minimize the significance of what Roundy said as it’s still a big deal!
That’s the beauty of the SOI. It doesn’t appear to be substantially affected by GW and thus the comparison to past years.
TAO buoy historical data:
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data1897934/sst5s180w_dy.ascii
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data1897934/sst0n180w_dy.ascii
-
1
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, snowman19 said:
Massive -SOI turnaround since March. 30 day down to -25. Today’s number is over -44
Thanks, Adam. So, Long Paddock after ~a week finally came back to updating its daily SOIs. This is what I earlier posted about this:
In doing so, it also retroactively changed some dailies prior to July 3rd. What’s most interesting is that those changes changed what had been 2 small positives to negatives: June 18th/19th changed from +4/+1 to -4/-4. Based on the original June 18th release of +4, a 37 day -SOI streak had apparently ended June 18th. However, with these changes, it didn’t and thus we’re in a very long -SOI streak that’s now at a whopping 62 days and is still going strong!How does this compare to the longest back to 1991?
-100 days in 1998
-72 days in 1997
-66 days in 2015
-65 days in 2023
-62 days and counting 2026
-
1
-
-
51 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:
Great news for climate scientists and bad news for climate alarmists with this appointment of Dr. Weilicki to lead the U.S. Global Change Research Program!! From Secretary Chris White "Matt Weilicki is an honest scientist who follows the data wherever it leads. That is what science is all about. He will lead our efforts to honestly present the empirical climate data to guide policy makers. Sadly, too much of the mainstream climate community has focused on a scary narrative that is inconsistent with actual climate data, leading so many astray like reporters at Politico. I welcome the new era where data, not rhetoric, is the arbiter of truth. Growing the government, increasing energy prices, and scaring children will no longer be the goal. Science will be the goal. So happy to have Matt in this role!"
I’d love for this to be true. However, unfortunately:
The administration has a new climate change office. It’s headed by a climate critic.
The office that produces the National Climate Assessment has been reconstituted, after the administration gutted it last year.
—————————Spreading climate misinformation is fast becoming a shortcut to popularity across right-wing media. This man’s rise proves it.
Matthew Wielicki makes baseless claims about climate change and is now a budding star in the climate denial community
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, bluewave said:
The forecast record breaking 600 DM ridge next week in the Upper Midwest is yet another pattern since May that doesn’t fit the typical developing record super El Niño playbook.
Thanks, Chris. Wow!
1. Am I correct in assuming this 0Z Euro map referring to record high H5 for 6Z of 7/14/26 centered on the N Plains is for ALL dates rather than just for July 14th?
2. Do you have a link to a source for record highest and lowest H5 for all dates for any location?
-
2 hours ago, bluewave said:
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php
As described in the data information sheet, the +80N mean temperature index is not a climate data record. Since 2002, the daily mean temperatures are calculated from the operational atmosphere model at ECMWF, and changes in the operational model over time may affect the resulting temperature trends. The effect of this should be considered before making firm conclusions on basis of trends in the +80N climate indices.Thanks, Chris.
From that ECMWF “data information sheet” link, the 80N+ mean is strongly biased toward the portion closer to 90N and thus shouldn’t be used for determining actual mean. I’m educatedly guessing that that’s the reason for its cold bias. OTOH, it also says comparing one year to another, which I’ve also been doing, can still be done:
“Since the data are gridded, it is straightforward to deduce the average temperature North of 80 degree North.
However, since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual physical mean temperature of the arctic.
The 'plus 80 North mean temperature' graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.”
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
I'm not crazy about that ELI ....they state that it does a pretty poor job of identifying Modoki events and it absolutely does....it has 2023 similar to 2009 and 2004. It lost me right there.
Two issues...first of all, the 165-170E Modoki range is too restrictive, which is likely why Modoki events are underrepresented in the data set. Secondly, it fails to distinguish the MC forcing of 2023 from Modoki forcing, which makes it no better than VP and OLR. I still like using the RONI for that distinction.
Based on my own look just now at the comparison of anomalies in the 4 Nino regions, I have only 4 clearcut Modoki El Niño events since 1950:
1. 1968-9:
Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4
Nov………-0.1……+0.1….+0.5…+0.4
Dec………+0.2….+0.4….+0.7….+0.6
Jan………-0.2……+0.5…..+1.0….+0.9
Feb……..-0.8…….+0.3…..+1.1…….+1.1
Mar……..+0.3……+0.2……+0.5.…+0.6
2. 1977-8: not as Modoki as 68-9Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4
Nov……….-0.5…..+0.2….+0.5…+0.3
Dec……….-0.6…..+0.3….+0.7….+0.4
Jan……….-0.4…..+0.1…..+0.6…..+0.4
Feb……….-0.4…...0.0……+0.3…..+0.2
Mar……….-1.2……-0.5…..-0.2…..-0.1
3. 2004-5: the most ModokiMonth……..1+2……3……3.4……4
Nov……...+0.7…..+0.6…+0.7….+0.8
Dec……..+0.4……+0.7….+0.7….+0.9
Jan……...0.0……..+0.3…..+0.7….+0.9
Feb……..-0.9…….-0.1…….+0.4…..+0.7
Mar……..-1.5…….-0.1…….+0.5……+0.6
4. 2014-5: 2nd most Modoki
Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4
Nov……….+0.8….+0.8…+0.8…+0.7
Dec………+0.4….+0.7…+0.7….+0.8
Jan………-0.2…..+0.4…+0.5….+0.8
Feb……..-0.5…..+0.1….+0.4….+0.9
Mar…….+0.1…..+0.1….+0.5…..+0.9
So, based on the above, the most Modoki (W based) El Niño events since 1950 were (starting from strongest):
1. 2004-5
2. 2014-5
3. 1968-9
4. 1977-8
Based on this, it appears to me that regarding wintry precip in El Niño seasons, the SE (based on ATL and RDU) seems to do somewhat better with C based (3.4 with clearly the warmest anomalies) than Modoki/W based. If I’m not mistaken, the NE tends to do better with W based (Modoki) over C based. Please correct me if that’s wrong. Interesting!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii
-
39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
Oh, I thought it was recent. My mistake. Facebook things posted out of context. I assumed the record cold >80N was creating a ridge underneath. The cold this year up there is certainly impressive!
Indeed!
Yeah, Chuck, it’s confusing because when I searched for it, I first found the new FB post, dated 7/2/26. At first it looked on the surface like a new record/first time over 100 in Arctic Circle based on the 1st 2 paragraphs. But then the 3rd paragraph said that on June 20, 2020, it hit 38C/100.4F. Then I was curious to see the comments below. The first one incorrectly said that was Antarctica lol. Then the 2nd comment said that it was 6 years ago and was critical of the story being posted now for no good reason other than to confuse.
-
6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
I just saw this
Apparently it was verified by the WMO
“In 2020, the town of Verkhoyansk, Russia, reached a temperature of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic Circle.” -
38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
Did you see that it just hit 100 degrees in the Arctic circle for the first time ever, on the Russia side.
Hey Chuck,
Do you have a link? The only thing I saw was a story from just a few days ago but it said that on 6/20/20 it hit 100.4F at Verkhoyansk, Russia (Siberia):
https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1023286790456624&id=100083259374691
-
July 8th mean 80N+ temp. (C) per DMI:
2026: 273.1 (barely below freezing and lowest on record (to 1958))
2025: 274.1
2024: 274.5
2023: 274.2
2022: 273.8
2021: 273.9
2020: 274.3
2019: 274.3
-
Very strong storm incoming! Very windy and fierce looking skies just to west! Small limbs falling! A few big raindrops.
So far just a few big drops. This batch formed per radar from collision of inland outflow and seabreeze boundaries. Cool stuff! Rarely a dull moment this time of year.
Edit 9:20 PM: There was never more than a trace from those aforementioned few drops at my place. However, there was heavy rain for a pretty short period from the NW part of the county to downtown and also from Skidaway and Wilmington Islands to Tybee. In addition, much of the coastal counties of S SC got plentiful rain.
-
After 3 99s this summer so far, KSAV had 100 today!
-
13 minutes ago, bluewave said:
Thanks, Chris
Keep in mind that even when assuming a bias, this is the coldest chart late May through early July overall for 80N+ compared to the same charts back to 1958. So, isn’t it an apples to apples comparison if one says it’s the coldest DMI chart for 80N for this period?
-
1
-
-
Per TAO, 5 day averaged SSTs of 30C+ reached not only 180 but also to 170W at 0N as early as April 22nd of 2015:
Location: 0N 170W 22 Apr 2015 to 22 May 2015 ( 7 times, 1 blocks) Gen. Date Jul 9 2026
Units: Sea Surface Temperature (C), -9.99 = missing
Time: 1200 22 Apr 2015 to 1200 22 May 2015 (index 1 to 7, 7 times)
Depth (M): 1 QUALITY
YYYYMMDD HHMM SST Q
20150422 1200 30.04 1.
20150427 1200 -9.99 0
20150502 1200 -9.99 0
20150507 1200 29.85 1
20150512 1200 29.89 1
20150517 1200 29.91 1
20150522 1200 30.06 1Time: 1200 3 Dec 2015 to 1200 2 Jan 2016 (index 49 to 55, 7 times)
Depth (M): 1 QUALITY
YYYYMMDD HHMM SST Q
20151203 1200 30.62 1
20151208 1200 30.68 1
20151213 1200 30.76 1
20151218 1200 30.53 1
20151223 1200 30.26 1
20151228 1200 30.29 1
20160102 1200 30.23 1——————
This year it was still <29C in April and took til June 1st to exceed 30C although it’s been mainly rising since:
Location: 0N 170W 2 Apr 2026 to 6 Jul 2026 ( 20 times, 1 blocks) Gen. Date Jul 9 2026
Units: Sea Surface Temperature (C), -9.99 = missing
Time: 1200 2 Apr 2026 to 1200 6 Jul 2026 (index 1 to 20, 20 times)
Depth (M): 1 QUALITY
YYYYMMDD HHMM SST Q
20260402 1200 28.01 2
20260407 1200 28.14 2
20260412 1200 28.35 2
20260417 1200 28.65 2
20260422 1200 28.74 2
20260427 1200 28.94 2
20260502 1200 29.17 2
20260507 1200 29.36 2
20260512 1200 29.34 2
20260517 1200 29.67 2
20260522 1200 29.59 2
20260527 1200 29.82 2
20260601 1200 30.05 2-
1
-
-
The WCS daily PDO has plunged from -0.19 on June 24th to -1.43 just 2 weeks later:
-
1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:
An interesting trend with the QBO this decade, with it wildly swinging back and forth from +QBO to -QBO each year):
2020-21: +QBO (11.15)
2021-22: -QBO (-26.34)
2022-23: +QBO (12.89)
2023-24: -QBO (-25.86)
2024-25: +QBO (13.78)
2025-26: -QBO (-26.92)
2026-27: +QBO?
(2027-28: -QBO?)
(2028-29: +QBO?)
Dips: below -26 in ‘25, ‘24, ‘22, ‘18, ‘15, ‘12, ‘10, ‘07, ‘05, ‘96, ‘94, ‘84;
But none in 1983-1948: why?
-
31 minutes ago, bluewave said:
Even though the areas north of 60N had their warmest June on record, a small area of the Arctic to the north of Alaska had their coldest June on record.
This Beaufort Sea region is a key area in determining what the annual sea ice minimum in September will be. Early season weak dipole patterns which are colder in this region have been common since 2013. It indicates locally fewer melt ponds and a better pattern for sea ice retention toward the Pacific side of the Arctic.
Seasons like 2012 and 2020 had very strong dipole patterns which preconditioned the ice for a big melt out by August and September. Most seasons since 2013 have finished in the 4.0 to 4.9 million sq km range for extent.
Only 2012 and 2020 finished below 4.0 million sq km due to extreme dipole patterns and early record melt ponding.
For the combined area poleward of 60N, this was the warmest June on record - despite the fact that a portion of the area north of Alaska had its coldest June on record (since 1940). @alaskawx.bsky.social10:51 PM · Jul 6, 2026Arctic Temperatures
June was very mild over a large part of the Arctic. About 70 percent of the Arctic (land and seas poleward of 60°N) had a warmer than average June relative to the 1991-2020 baseline (Fig. 1). But almost 85 percent of Arctic land areas were milder than normal. About 12 percent of the Arctic had the warmest June since 1950 in ERA5 reanalysis, while only 1 percent had the coldest June in the past 77 years.
The warmth was most dramatic in western Siberia. For Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug this was by far the warmest June on record. For the third time in the past five years, Svalbard had the warmest June on record. Parts of the Northwest Territories and southern Nunavut, Canada also had the warmest June on record. Areas with below normal temperatures were more restricted. June was quite chilly north of about 75N over the Canadian Arctic Islands and westward into the Arctic basin east of the dateline as well as on Alaska’s North Slope.
Of special note was the extreme warmth in northwest Siberia on June 25. Beliy Island (73.3°N), just offshore of the Yamal Peninsula, reached 28.3C (83F). According to M. Herrera on his “Extreme Temperatures Around the World” Bluesky account, this is (apparently) the highest temperature on record so far north anywhere in the world. This heat was concurrent with the late June western and central European heatwave but was entirely distinct, as Russia east of Ural Mountains was generally cooler than normal during this time.
Since 1950, this was easily the warmest June on record for the Arctic overall (Fig. 2) and the mildest since 2020. Arctic lands also had the highest June average temperature.
Meanwhile, per DMI charts back to 1958, the mean temp. for the Arctic N of 80N continues being the coldest on record (I’ve been looking at all years’ charts) thus continuing the coldest overall there since the 2nd half of May:
-
52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
This season will definitely average +PNA and probably safely so. I think we get an RNA month, it may be December.
I agree strongly. Out of the last 10 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs, which goes back to 1982-3, 90% (9) had all 3 months +0.25+! The only one that didn’t was the last one, 2023-4. That one still had 2 of the 3 at +0.25+ with Feb at +0.09. March of ‘24 went back up to +0.45.
Since 1982-3, 90% (9) of Marches were +0.25+ with only March of 2003 not as it was neutral (-0.07).
In contrast to 1982-3+, only 1 of the prior 7 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs had all 3 months at +0.25+!
-
9 hours ago, olafminesaw said:
A New Orleans special
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2026
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN BY VARIOUS QUALITY
CONTROLLED OBSERVATIONS SYSTEMS FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
*************MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX (113F AND ABOVE)*************
LOCATION MAXIMUM TIME/DATE COMMENTS
HT INDEX MEASURED
(DEG F)
SOUTH CAROLINA
..BEAUFORT COUNTY
BEAUFORT MCAS 114.0 256 PM 7/08 ASOS
..BERKELEY COUNTY
HUGER 114.0 114 PM 7/08 MESONET
WITHERBEE 113.0 1215 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL
..CHARLESTON COUNTY
AWENDAW/WAMBW 116.0 147 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL
CHARLESTON INTL ARPT 114.0 308 PM 7/08 ASOS
CHARLESTON EXE ARPT 113.0 1255 PM 7/08 AWOS
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 113.0 200 PM 7/08 OFFICIAL NWS OB.
..COLLETON COUNTY
BENNETTS POINT 113.0 1200 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, snowman19 said:
Last year vs this year at this time, ENSO and the PMM stealing the show….
Thanks, Adam. Note how much the WPAC has cooled from Korean Pen. to E of Japan! Also, check out the impressive N Atlantic cooling! That ATL cooling along with cooling tropics (-AMO trend) may be indicative of a major pattern change toward colder E US winters coming up.
-
2
-
-
10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
Bruh I can't watch the deep south get pummeled again, lol Wonder if 72-73 had strong blocking that produced that snowstorm down there?
Moderate +NAO
1973 2 1 0.250
1973 2 2 0.252
1973 2 3 0.237
1973 2 4 0.525
1973 2 5 0.834
1973 2 6 0.944
1973 2 7 0.807
1973 2 8 0.672
1973 2 9 0.656
1973 2 10 0.718
1973 2 11 0.924
Moderate to strong +AO1973 2 1 1.868
1973 2 2 1.709
1973 2 3 0.930
1973 2 4 0.511
1973 2 5 1.958
1973 2 6 2.915
1973 2 7 2.326
1973 2 8 1.437
1973 2 9 1.385
1973 2 10 1.560
Neutral to weak +PNA1973 2 1 0.304
1973 2 2 0.161
1973 2 3 0.229
1973 2 4 0.295
1973 2 5 0.179
1973 2 6 -0.004
1973 2 7 -0.097
1973 2 8 0.154
1973 2 9 0.349
1973 2 10 0.166Moderate to strong -EPO
1973 02 01 74.97
1973 02 02 -15.68
1973 02 03 -165.84
1973 02 04 -262.56
1973 02 05 -228.20
1973 02 06 -209.60
1973 02 07 -231.67
1973 02 08 -209.49
1973 02 09 -159.81
1973 02 10 -29.44
Neutral to weak +WPO1973 02 01 247.35
1973 02 02 202.33
1973 02 03 119.68
1973 02 04 71.22
1973 02 05 36.31
1973 02 06 9.54
1973 02 07 -8.75
1973 02 08 -19.39
1973 02 09 0.37
1973 02 10 21.42-
1
-
-
It’s still an oppressive 97.3 at my place with mostly sunny skies. I don’t know what the high was but my guess would be ~99 (about the hottest of the year so far) and HI’s way up there.
-
CSU 7/7/26 update: This forecast is predicting the weakest season since 2013. I wouldn’t at all mind a break here in the very hard hit SE overall since 2016.
“We further reduce our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipate a well below-normal season. Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
-
1
-
1
-
July ‘26 obs
in Southeastern States
Posted
100.0F right now (4:48PM) at my home!