GaWx

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

Yeah, you can def see the emergence of a much warmer pattern towards the end of the ensembles. Quite a strong signal already, so I’m sure there’s some truth to it.

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Definitely 

Its coming but towards April

After the one cold week (3/16-22), which is still coming, an AN signal emerges like it has on prior runs in most of the E US although the NE still has just a neutral signal in today’s EW:

3/16-22: nice

3/23-29: nice (from my standpoint) is over 

Saw my first wasp of the season. I love having to deal with them. 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Firstly,

"I" not comparing anything.  That's a cite from the article.  That's what the quotation marks mean.

Secondly, it is what it is... The numbers show that the rate of increase rose from .2, to .35.

  you have a problem with fact of the numbers? 

 

TT,

 My apologies for wording that as if those were your own words. That was my bad.

  I have no reason to refute the 0.35C rise of the last decade. 2023 had that sharp rise and that hasn’t come off with a new record likely on the way this year. But that’s just one decade and thus on its own it’s statistical credibility is much lower than that of the 0.2C of the prior 45 years. I assume you agree.

 I’d think that a “correction” of sorts could very well occur later this decade after the upcoming El Niño and would be surprised if the next decade were to warm close to another 0.35C. Reversion to the recent mean decadal increase unless for some unknown reason the true underlying mean increase has suddenly risen.

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a fresh itch for deniers to scratch

https://phys.org/news/2026-03-reveal-significant-global.html

"Over the past 10 years, the estimated warming rate has been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015. This recent rate is higher than in any previous decade since the beginning of instrumental records in 1880."

Almost doubling the previous 4.5 decades of d(warm)/dt rate during the last 10, leaping from .2 to .35/d

Probably 2023 has big arithmetic weight in that, considering it was unilateral whole degree C among all systems on Earth, air, sea and coupling air/sea.  It does make me wonder if ... suppose over this next 8 years there is no sudden wholesale planetary leap by another whole deg C, doing so all at terrifying once, where the "density" of the species ignores the eye popping significance again:  Would the next delta settle back below .35C?   I suspect there is a rather larger chance in the total probability spectrum for that being the case, because looking back at climate change of the past/geological inference, the climate does not move up or down in smooth graphical trajectories.  There'll probably be simmering increases that "leap" every once in a while.  If you catch one of those years in your decadal data set, you're deltas will boast ( or perhaps "roast" heh ) a bigger change. 

The climate graphs are "serrated" with intra-time span periods that dips shits use to lout the planet's cooling off, or twist that to prove the warm data was faked... or whatever they need, while hailing from a position of really no much formal education and/or proven higher reasoning ability in the matter whatsoever ... so we should really allow them to guide destiny of humanity. Yeah!

 

 TT said: "Over the past 10 years, the estimated warming ratehas been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015.”

 TT, 

  A problem I see is that you’re using just one decade for the 0.35/decade calculation vs using 4.5 decades to determine the ~0.2/decade.

39 minutes ago, Fozz said:

How reliable is this forecast this far out? Looks like it wants a super Nino but this is only early March.

The Euro ENSO forecasts have a warm bias per looking at 20+ years of forecasts even as late as forecasts issued in early summer. Also, this chart is predicting ONI. RONI has now replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

 RONI is currently ~0.5C cooler than ONI meaning that this chart is implicitly predicting only ~+1.6 in Sept rather than +2.1. If one then does a bias correction, they’d come up with only a low +1s RONI for Sept (moderate as of then) although it’s still rising then on the chart implying higher later.
 

@Stormchaserchuck1

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The recent Euro forecast increase in El Niño strength is due to the model initializing the record February upper ocean heat content for a developing El Niño. But as always we’ll have to wait until we get past the spring forecast barrier in order to know the exact strength.

If we do get another event near or over +2 only 3 years after the 2023-2024 event, then it would be a first. The unusual and record early warming in 2023 for a developing El Niño may have signaled a shift in the PCC near Nino 1+2 leading to faster warming and more frequent stronger El Niños.  

 

Chris, 

 per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

 The RONI based peak of 2023-4, which has replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring, was only +1.5:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Possible many areas don’t get below freezing in March this year which is insane 

There has been only one March in which GSO didn’t get down to 32 the entire month: 1945. But their coldest in April of 1945 was a much colder 25!

 RDU’s warmest coldest in Mar was above 32 three times: 1919, 1945, and 2024. Of those Aprils of 1919 and 1945 had a coldest of 32 or lower. But April of 2024 didn’t get down to 32. That means that the earliest last freeze was in 2024, which was Feb 21st! Can you believe it?!? That record is safe this time.

Whew. All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.

https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/2029694752199754045?

My thoughts on this newest Euro 3.4 prog:

- They’ve generally been getting stronger the last few months.

-This run implies a super Nino peak.

-Keep in mind, however, that this is a prog of ONI, not RONI. RONI currently is ~0.5C lower. So, this implies Aug RONI to be near +2.1 -0.5 = +1.6.

-Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias in 3.4 of several tenths. So, a bc prog of RONI would very likely be only in the low +1s range in Sept.

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Today’s EW for 3/16-22 is slightly colder but it remains the only full week averaging chilly: so a one and done full cool week again this run and still not that much BN, esp SE:

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

What is the hypothesized physical mechanism of causation between sunspots (or solar cycle in general) and high latitude blocking?

I don’t know, but I believe others here can explain it.

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s so tiresome when it gets cold in late March. Literally accomplishes nothing.


.

 Sorry but it’s also tiresome to read negative comments like this. First of all, we’re just entering a long torch. Secondly, it’s normal/common to have NN or BN in parts of March obviously. There’s not even an indication of overly or longlasting cold as of now but rather just maybe 1-2 normal for mid March chilly airmasses resulting in a few BN days, which I’m looking forward to. The Euro Weeklies then warm it right back.
 

 Will it “accomplish” anything? Yes, of course, as it will give the SE a break from the current torch. I can’t wait.

 Also, consider this. Of the last 6 Marches, 4 have been AN, 2 NN, and 0 BN. And the current March looks to end up AN or at the coldest NN thanks to the current long torch.

On 3/1/2026 at 10:04 AM, GaWx said:

 The NOAA Feb NAO will likely come in between +0.35 and +0.60. That would easily be high enough to give us still another winter without low sunspots/not near a solar minimum without a sub -0.25 NAO as I’m projecting -0.13 to -0.20, which I’d classify as neutral. My def. of neutral is between -0.25 and +0.25.
 

 It was headed to sub -0.25 as it was ~-0.45 winter to date as of Feb 14th, but the strong +NAO of the 2nd half of Feb raised the average. So although this was the closest call to finally stopping the non-negative NAO non-low sunspot combo streak, it appears we’ll still be able to say that the only -NAO winters since 1980 (only 6 of them) have been during sub 35 sunspot averaged winters.

 Feb NAO actually came in at +0.68, which is a tad more positive than my likely range of +0.35 to +0.60. So, that means DJF came in at -0.11, which is within the neutral territory of -0.25 to +0.25. Thus, there still has yet to be a sub -0.25 DJF NAO with 35+ DJF averaged sunspots since 1980 meaning the long streak lives on.

Monthly NAO back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

SIDC monthly sunspots:

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

So your analog is showing a huge aleutian low with a ridge over the rockies (again). How does it look over the polar domain though? If we get a -WPO/-EPO or -NAO along with that aleutian low, we just might avoid a wall to wall torch. If we get a well-timed STJ wave with cold air lurking nearby, we could score and big.

 Even if RONI ends up peaking +1.5+, the DC area could still have a BN averaged winter based on the 2009-10, 1965-6, and 1957-8 analogs. What did these 3 analogs have in common? -NAO and -AO, both of which were lacking in nearly all of the other +1.5+ ENSO winters. It wasn’t the Pacific that made the difference as they almost always had +PNA and no -EPO/-WPO for all +1.5+ ENSO.

 So, a -NAO/-AO would appear to be the deciders. The major challenge though for getting a -NAO is going to be sunspots almost for sure still not getting down to low (say, sub 35/month). There hasn’t been even one -NAO winter since 1980 with a >35 sunspot avg! So, the odds would be heavily against a cold DC area winter should ENSO get to +1.5+. In that case, the best hope would be for a NN instead of mild DC winter. Your better hope for a cold winter would as you’d suspect be for a sub +1.5 RONI peak this fall/winter.

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 Wow, these last 2 days the GEFS has succumbed to much closer to the EPS of lower amp and faster going back to late Feb and is now actually at a little weaker amp than the EPS. For example, here were the 2/25 runs:

2/25 EPS: was still a bit faster than last 2 days of GEFS runs but not by nearly as much compared to earlier GEFS, the 2/25 run of which is just below this image

2/25 GEFS: like most of its recent runs prior to yesterday was much slower and stronger than last 2 GEFS runs!

 So, the EPS (JMA has been too weak) is easily going to win this battle of EPS vs GEFS.

DJF:

ONI -0.39

RONI -0.90

 So, RONI minus ONI has dropped back down to -0.51.

 Most non-BoM model projections are ONI rather than RONI. Thus, in order to estimate RONI, one obviously needs to subtract ~0.5 from the model progs.

The Feb QBO at 30 mb came in about as expected, -23.13. So, here’s this winter’s QBO:

Dec -26.92
Jan -25.51
Feb -23.13 

 Well with near certainty it will be west/+ next winter and the west period could easily start as early as summer.

Euro Weeklies slightly less cold 3/16-22 than yesterday. That’s the only full chillyish week just like on yesterday’s run. So, no this isn’t in any way resembling a long period of cold for the E US although I’ll take whatever reprieve from the warmth that I can get!

Upcoming -WPO punge, which wasn’t even on the models anywhere near to this extent just a few days ago, is progged to be the lowest in March since March of 2017, when there were hard freezes all the way down to N FL and snow in the Carolinas:

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

In my experience UHI is a red herring. Often raised; but, never documented with hard evidence. UHI is a local effect while climate change is global. There are thousands of stations in the US. Easy to determine if most of the warming is from UHI or not.There is UHI of course, but it doesn't have much impact at most stations. The urbanization occurred a long time ago or doesn't occur near the station.  Lander appears to be one of those cases.

The Lander airport weather station is well outside of the town's footprint. In a dry area like Lander irrigation or grass watering could have an effect. The photo shows greening from watering outside the built-up area. There could easily be a negative or small UHI impact there. Lander's population rose rapidly before 1970 but hasn't changed much since 1970; with ups and downs, and a small decline since 2010. Lander Airport temperatures have risen slightly since 1940, with most of the rise after population stabilized in 1970. There doesn't appear to be much correlation between temperature at the airport and local population, with flat or declining temperatures during the most rapid population rise in the 1950s and 60s.  Note that the coolest year 2017 is impacted by missing data. Other regional stations weren't cool that year.  Removing 2017 would increase recent warming somewhat.

Bottom-line there isn't much evidence for a UHI warming impact in recent decades. Its possible that grass watering is counteracting other population effects; but, there isn't enough information to make a strong case.

 

 

 Yeah, Charlie, it looks like also no UHI at those 4 GA locations that were just noted. OTOH, Phoenix (as a great example) has had a significant UHI as we’ve discussed to pile on top of CC’s effects there. So, it’s not always a red herring and it shouldn’t be ignored where it has had a lot of impact. Otherwise, it looks to others like it is purposely being hidden to exaggerate the effects of GW even if that’s not the case. I’m a disclose everything kind of person so that it doesn’t look like there’s something being hidden. That’s why I suggested Blairsville, GA, as a great choice for no UHI to cloud up the analysis. It’s also why I’m glad to see those 4 GA locations being rural.

34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With the extreme cold remaining in Canada and extreme warmth invading most of the US, it seems like we have a chance of a significant severe weather season simply due to the mixing of extremes. EURO and GFS already showing a potent system in about a week 

Yes, indeed. This severe threat will then likely be followed by a potent cold shot as we approach the Ides, which would more than likely be the last hard freeze threat for much of the SE (especially S of NC). So, a highly volatile period to say the least is in the cards per model consensus! Not boring for sure.

 The WPO is currently being forecasted to dip to its lowest in March since 2017! That lead to Carolina snow (flurries even to ATL) and hard freezes down to N FL!

WPO forecasted plunge next week:

11 hours ago, yotaman said:

Looks like we won't see a cool down until almost mid month. 

Beware the Ides of March! The models are unanimous on the WPO plunging next week!

15 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Yes unlike many of the others Georgia appears to have done a good job picking truly remote sites.  Ideally you'd like to see all the sites be like that, since it's usually an average of all sites that's shown (e.g. in the X post).

I haven't looked for it, but was just noticing that a lot of the references in this thread to records / high trends are in areas that may be subject to UHI effect.   Would be nice to see some for remote sites instead, since IMO that's much more meaningful.

Do you or does anyone else know how much these 4 GA locations warmed? I’d really like to know due to their supposed lack of UHI effect.

@TheClimateChanger

@donsutherland1

@chubbs

21 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

Here are the Georgia sites:

 

 

1) Cumberland is certainly rural: https://www.nps.gov/cuis/planyourvisit/staffordbeach.htm

2)-3) Ichauway appears quite rural, too:

https://www.jonesctr.org/about-us/

4) Colham Ferry appears to be a burb of Watkinsville, a town with only ~3K:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watkinsville,_Georgia#:~:text=Watkinsville is the largest city,County%2C Georgia Metropolitan Statistical Area.

 ————

 What do you think of these 4 as far as not having UHI to worry about?

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Using NYC as an example and assuming the departures below normal being shown are correct for 3/16-3/22, what would the actual temps (highs) in degrees F be when compared to normal high temperatures in that time frame (3/16-3/22)? Just a ballpark if that verified?

~4 BN with normal based on 2006-25. Nothing drastic but the change from runs of just a few days back is what’s most notable. Also, will this getting colder trend continue?

55 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Hmmm - well - looking at their locations https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/crn/  - that's not really what I'm talking about.   It looks like just about all of those sites are actually suburban sites, or at least "close to city" rural sites.     For example the one in central NC is in Duke Forest - but that's practically surrounded by Durham, which is a fast-growing urban area.   The one in southern LA is at Cade Farm which is rural-ish, but is only 3 miles from the edge of Lafayette.   The one in western VA is only 1 mile from I-64 and Charlottesville, Etc.

What I'm talking about would be truly rural sites - ones where there isn't a significant city within about 50-100 miles or so.    I see very few if any sites of those that fit that bill.

 

 

Blairsville, GA