GaWx

12 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

numbnuts right here is saying that @GaWx

There’s no need to call him that. I gave a like to Anthony’s post saying cool start to spring because he was replying to my post showing a trend toward a lower NAO in week 2, in other words starting with calendar spring rather than met. spring. Y’all are talking about different things.

23 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

I really don’t understand why people are saying it’s been a cool start to spring. You’d either have to be trolling or have zero concept of weather to genuinely believe that.

What people are saying that spring has started cool? This is near the warmest 3/1-12 on record for many. I was actually waiting for spring to get started being that it’s been like summer in the SE. Finally, it cooled off since yesterday.

 The AO and NAO forecasts have lowered since 2 days ago in week 2 based on a day by day comparison.

AO today:

NAO today:

NAO 2 days ago:

Latest MJO: all forecasted days are in phases 7 and 8, the coldest post Niña winter March phases on avg per records:

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Eric Webb touched on this back in November. He said we were exactly following the previous winter precursor patterns that culminated in the super El Niño’s of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 

 It may end up super-strong. But Eric likes to make bold calls and thus has had his share of bad busts before. So, we’ll see. Keep in mind the Euro’s warm bias in predicting ENSO as well as the fact that RONI is currently 0.5C cooler than ONI, which is what most of the model charts are showing.

I took my first walk outside in ~a week this evening due to the end of false summer. It was pleasant with near normal mid 50s, dewpoints near 40, and a nice steady breeze. Looking forward to nice walking wx over almost every one of the next 10 days. Spring has sprung. Actually it is a fallback to spring in this odd March!

From KCHS at 7:15AM:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 50 IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES 

IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA 

BRYAN BULLOCH CANDLER 
CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS 
JENKINS LIBERTY LONG 
MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL 

IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES 

IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA 

ALLENDALE BEAUFORT COLLETON 
DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER 

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALLENDALE, BEAUFORT, BLUFFTON, 
CLAXTON, COTTAGEVILLE, DARIEN, EDISTO BEACH, ESTILL, FAIRFAX, 
FORT STEWART, GARDEN CITY, GLENNVILLE, HAMPTON, HARDEEVILLE, 
HILTON HEAD ISLAND, HINESVILLE, LUDOWICI, METTER, MILLEN, 
PEMBROKE, POOLER, REIDSVILLE, RICHMOND HILL, RIDGELAND, 
RIDGEVILLE, RINCON, SAINT GEORGE, SAVANNAH, SPRINGFIELD, 
STATESBORO, SUMMERVILLE, SYCAMORE, SYLVANIA, TYBEE ISLAND, 
VARNVILLE, WALTERBORO, AND YEMASSEE.

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Lamar knows his value. It would have surprised me if he got an extension paying the same as Tua, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott etc. 

Chuck,

 Crude has quietly risen $18 (to almost $95) just since the 1PM low of yesterday! Normally, this move alone would be quite notable. But after Monday’s near all time extreme volatility, it seems relatively orderly.

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Folks, I just saw 86.5 on my thermometer at 12:07PM EDT!! It has since fallen back to a cold 86.1 lol.

 I didn’t check my thermometer again during the heat of the day. But KSAV had a record high of 91, easily beating the old record of 87! KSVN also hit 91. Summer’s here!

KATL tied its record high of 82.

Folks, I just saw 86.5 on my thermometer at 12:07PM EDT!! It has since fallen back to a cold 86.1 lol.

Today’s MJO forecasts:

GEFS

EPS

 A high of 90 is forecast for this area aided by a steady SW wind pinning the seabreeze and highs have been overperforming a couple of degrees, possibly related to the drought. So, the record high of 87 has a great chance to be broken. Meanwhile, lows in the 30s a couple of days next week will be possible along with highs only in the 50s, which is colder than recent 60s lows! That will make for quite a chilly St. Patrick’s Day parade. Looking forward to that and also a low 40s low well before that on Friday.

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not very impactful in the traditional sense given that it wasn't a SSW, per se, however, I do feel that the very rare early season reversal predisposes the PV to disruption, and the polar domain to irregularities overall on a seasonal-level.

Here is a composite of the two other seasons that had one:

And this year:

 

I definitely don't think it's a coincidence that we went onto to register a -NAO with high solar, which is exceedingly rare as you know from  your research.

Thanks. Based on my calling a -0.25 to +0.25 DJF averaged NAO “neutral”, I actually have 25-26 as neutral due to a -0.11 average. It was easily headed to sub -0.25 with a -0.4 winter to date avg. as of Feb 12th, but the strong +NAO of Feb 13-28 brought the avg. up to -0.11. Nevertheless, the -0.11 is the lowest NAO of a 35+ sunspot winter since 1997-8, quite a notable achievement with sunspots at 105. winter. One has to go all the way back to 1978-9 to find the last true -NAO DJF during an active sunspot winter.

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hey Ray, Good job overall!

 How impactful would you say was the late Nov SSWE?

 KSAV had a torchy 89 high today, which missed the 1974 record by only 2. What happened to spring?

30 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Short but will be stout. Currently looking at the low to mid teens here in the mountains with flow snow.

 Snow chances this far south have, of course, been done. We got the 3/4” on 1/31, which is quite snowy for way down here and was very enjoyable! I’m just looking forward to the clean chilly Canadian air, which is always welcomed. 

 Will we get any more freezes or frosts though? Not from the first real short chill as that will get us to ~45. The second, however, should get us a couple of 30s.

31 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Whether snow or no snow the cold air is coming again. 

I’m most looking forward to 3/13 and especially 3/16-20, the colder of the two periods. Yes, it’s pretty short but I’ll take whatever I can get before summer resumes.

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not a tough call to be long Oil for tomorrow. 

 Thanks, Chuck. That appeared to be a good call to me, too. But so far, crude is staying down with it ~$84. Are you surprised? Of course, it can turn on a dime at just about any point. Regardless, anyone who had the courage to short it near its Sun evening 119 high is up a huge amount if they’re still short!

Now you see it:

Now you almost don’t (to nobody’s surprise of course):

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

No surprise it’s been such a warm March thus far. Classic warm mid-latitudes pattern that will continue for the foreseeable future outside of the brief St. Patrick’s day cold shot

Indeed. I count only ~6 days of cold in the bulk of the E US: 3/13 and 3/16-20. But the 2nd one is quite intense for mid-March and I’ll thoroughly enjoy it as this short period of false winter gives us down here relief from the false summer!

 A -PNA, +AO, and +EPO are aiding the warmth along with MJO phases 5 and 6 through yesterday. Those two have averaged the warmest phases during March following a Niña winter. The main opponent is and will continue to be the -WPO, which in combo with MJO phase 8 (2nd coldest March Niña phase) is likely what’s going to allow the brief two cold periods.

The +1.85 NAO of March of 1989 is in danger of being exceeded for a new record strong March +NAO:

 Remember to double these to very roughly estimate the tabular values, which means that today’s GEFS mean is progging a March 1-24 NAO way up at ~~+2.3 to +2.75!

59 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS drives 850s below freezing much sooner than anything else. Not much difference synoptically or in surface depiction between it and anything else. Just way too quick with post frontal CAA east of mountains with the passage of the strong arctic front. I could see flakes mix in somewhere in Virginia but this will not be more than that (and mountain snow). Not really worth over analyzing, GFS just defies physics while other models understand cold is delayed by the mountains 

 Thanks for your explanation. I see that the surface temp is safely above 32.

 Here’s the surface pressures of the relevant 6Z GEFS members as of the end of the snow period for portions of NC: what do they (2, 4, 7, and 14) have in common? lowest SLP both stronger and centered ~150-200 miles off SE coast:

And here’s the 6 hour qpf: check out member 14 with its 1.25” swath:

 The 6Z GFS suite is looking really stupid in being on its own including all of the main short term models in showing a snow threat in portions of C and E NC on Thu (3/12). Why is the GFS showing this??

GFS (Kuchera):

GEFS mean (10:1):

 

GEFS mean is almost all from the clueless members 4 and 14 with a small assist by 2 and 7 while the other 26 members essentially have nothing outside of the mtns:

2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I know it’s time to put away the dreams of snow and cold and embrace the season of Spring


.

 It’s already been like summer for many in the SE on many days this month. Many are headed for one of the warmest Marches on record. I have enough summer as it is. I’d prefer March be more like a spring month. Thus, I’m looking forward to the cooldown and am hoping April overall comes in less warm than March. This has zero to do with snow.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The models looked colder than what they are showing now.  I admit that they will be wrong in a long duration cold pattern. I will never rule out snow until April though.

Is that good jackass?

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

So... fail.

 Contributing to the problem of models looking colder further out in time is that WxBell Euro 2m Euro Weeklies maps are too cold, something I’ve emphasized in many posts. I know that @donsutherland1and Anthony are, among others, fully aware of this issue.
 

 How do I know they’re too cold? I’ve on many occasions compared the WB maps to the in-house ecmwf maps, especially in later weeks as the WB cold errors grow. The WB maps are essentially always colder and often by a significant amount in later weeks. Has anyone ever wondered why the NE US and much of W US are just about always below normal on WB during later weeks of the Weeklies? So, as the periods get closer, the WB maps more often than not warm up as the magnitude of the cold errors reduces.