GaWx

4 hours ago, gtg947h said:

We're closing on a house just south of Atlanta Jan 2nd... I don't need that

You can relax now. The 12Z Euro has no storm, which was fully expected due to the 0Z coming out of nowhere in semi-fantasyland and with hardly any EPS support. But the 12Z does look solid cold as early as the PM of 12/29 and lasting through 12/31 fwiw. However, its E US trough is stronger than other 12Z ops and is thus currently an outlier for the cold. Regardless, the colder trend seems to be there. So, we’ll see. 
 

 Edit: The 12Z EPS has no support for a synoptic scale SE snowstorm as they support a mainly dry shot of cold.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has to be the most extreme -WPO +EPO dipole that we have seen in December. Lead to the unusually strong ridge out West with the -PNA for such a strong -WPO. Record Pacific Jet and historic flooding in the Pacific Northwest. 
 

Strong December -WPO 500 mb composite more -EPO snd weaker Western U.S. ridge 

 Indeed, this combo has been a rarity in at least Dec. Looking at history for Dec, I looked to see the last time there was a strong -WPO dominating with a neutral or +EPO. It looks per the current December’s numbers that there will end up a strong -WPO while there will probably be a weak +EPO average (with the 3 +EPO periods averaging longer than the 3 -EPO periods).

 The last half month+ long period within Decs when there was anything similar was the first half of 1995 (extreme -WPO and weak +EPO), the first half of 1966 (very strong -EPO and neutral EPO), and Dec 7-23, 1956 (extreme -WPO and moderate +EPO).

 Over a shorter timeframe, Dec 1-10 of 2012 had a very strong -WPO while there was a moderate +EPO.

56 minutes ago, gtg947h said:

We're closing on a house just south of Atlanta Jan 2nd... I don't need that

 The roads from this highly unlikely 0Z Euro still in semi-fantasyland (mainly Dec 30th there) snow out of nowhere (and only one of the 50 EPS members (#30) has anything like this) would be fine by Jan 2nd per the same run. So, you’d just be left with beautiful scenery for your closing.

 If this were to somehow happen though, there’d be many very upset members NC/TN north. They’d be giving @suzookand @dsaura hard time! So, maybe it’s better it not happen lol. I don’t think they’ll need to worry about this occuring.

Don’t look at the 0Z Euro….or better yet look at it OMG!

Many NC peeps won’t be thrilled but anyway: this is for 12/30 to early 12/31:

What the???

 As I said, a year ago at this time the NOAA weeks 3-4 maps were quite cold looking (strongest cold signal in SE quadrant on record since this product started being issued) and they obviously verified quite well (although to be fair these aren’t actually forecasts):

OTOH, 4 years ago at this time (when many E US posters’ tones on the wx boards were similarly gloomy) they were similarly mild looking to yesterday’s for much of the E US, which turned out to be “wrong”:

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

LOL

Stupid to call them the weeklies anymore. They should be called the dailies. Or the Euro extended, which they really are when you look at an actual map(ECMWF Ext. Ens). They haven't been a weekly product for quite awhile.

They’re still called Weeklies because that is based on their own extended maps being for one week at a time, not based on their release frequency. 

 Today’s Euro Weeklies run/extended EPS mean was the warmest run yet this season for the E US overall.

 Today’s extended GEFS doesn’t look much better for the E US its entire run if you prefer cold (like I do).

 But obviously I’m hopeful they will bust badly! A year ago at this time, they were cold for the E US and NOAA’s weeks 3-4 products were about the coldest on record for the SE US. I was posting a lot about those outlooks as well as the cold Weeklies and was very excited. What a difference a year makes!

 They often have a decent clue as to the general upcoming pattern. But not always. So, we’ll see.

Today was another nice day for a walk here! Mid to low 60s, sunshine, a light breeze, and dewpoints in the 40s. Due largely to the great walking wx, I’ve taken walks every day since Nov 29th per my phone’s fitness ap. According to it over the last 10 years, I’ve never taken anywhere near that many days in a row of walks! Usually something (wx or other) gets in the way at least once a week.

6 hours ago, tacoman25 said:

Very persistent pattern. Something similar has happened before...1917 had an insanely warm and persistent pattern for the PNW/West. This one just looks a bit warmer and more persistent.

Don't tell the residents of Juneau, Fairbanks, or Whitehorse that this is what future Decembers will look like. All three are on track for one of their coldest Decembers on record.

And not surprisingly, Dec/Jan 1917-18 was (one of) the coldest in E US on record!

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m thankful and glad we had the 3 week stretch we did, it was great. But I think it’s perfectly normal to be a tad annoyed we’re headed into prime climo on a warm streak. You’re right though, it is what it is and it can’t be changed. I’m a big 4 seasons guy. I get salty less about the snow part and more of the me having to break out the shorts Christmas morning 

The good news is that highest on any 12Z model for Christmas in your area is only 65-68 and some are cooler. These are quite a bit lower than the 74ish record highs. ATL, otoh, may be pretty close to its 75 record.

23 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The warmth over Central US is very impressive, akin to the very warm Christmas we had here in December 2014 and December 2015. This is one of the few times where you would want a pacific jet extension to force storms into the west, which will roll the ridge through the east US and then maybe we can reset from there. But until that omega ridge subsides over Central US, CONUS is almost completely void of cold and snow. Horrendous

Nationally, 12/25/25 is going to be close to the historically warm 12/25/21.

15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Nationally, the hottest Christmas in modern history 

 It will be historically warm but 2021 was close.

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Do you know off hand what years those were with a EQBO?

22, 96, 84

The GEFS and EPS have big disagreement 12/25-1/3! Fwiw, JMA, BOM, and CFS favor GEFS:

Meanwhile, phase 8 , which helped bring strong cold Dec 3-7 and Dec 15 but won’t next week, returned on 12/17 and will likely be with us for awhile:

18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Some of yall on here actually like we just didn't go through an impressive 3 week cold and some snow stretch.  It's comical and im laughing.  All you can do. What's the saying.  This is the only weather you've got so enjoy it. Something like that. 

I loved the 3 week cold stretch! I’m still enjoying the cool/dry of yesterday and this weekend. Great for walking! Was down to mid 30s this AM. The impressive torch is progged to be most concentrated during 12/23-8 (and much of that period will still be pleasant with pretty low dewpoints) and with any later torchy days up in the air since good model skill doesn’t go out that far.

 Despite the warmup Charlotte will still likely end up NN for Dec. ATL likely slightly AN. RDU/GSO likely slightly BN.

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Curious...has our area ever done well with a strong PV before? Seems the -NAO may not be enough based on what JC is suggesting here...

Strong SPV during cold and snow Nashville since 79:

-Jans of 25, 22, 16, 00, 96, 84…so, 6 of 14 cold and snowy Jans had strong SPV (00 cold/snow last half of Jan)

-Feb of 96

Strong Jan SPV has been progged by Euro Weeklies, which have and usually do well:

Todays Euro Weeklies are looking better/pretty good for 1/12-2/1. See the main ENSO thread for maps/more details if interested.

 I’ll add that today’s weeklies have a stronger -NAO/-AO forming for 1/12-2/1:

1/12-18:

1/26-2/1:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are similar to the prior ones through Jan 11th with mild for much of the country though the warmest is closer to the C US, well away from the E US.

 However, today’s weeks 4-5 continue yesterday’s cooling trend:

1/12-18

12/17 run:

12/19 run:

1/19-25

12/18 run:

12/19 run:

And then week 6 is similar to yesterday’s in the E US:

 In summary, whereas the first 3 weeks (through 1/11) remain mild in much of the E US, the last 3 weeks (1/12-2/1) are mainly NN to a little BN in most of the E US with nothing even resembling warmth.

 The 1/19-25 map suggests a +PNA is trying to form:

 The 12Z GFS has 6 days of the rest of Dec having a high of 70+ at KATL (12/24-29): 70, 73, 72, 70, 71, and 73. Granted, 2 of the 6 days on this barely make 70. So, getting 6 won’t be easy. Many models including earlier GFS runs don’t have 70+ on 12/29 with the 5 of 12/24-28 more common for the most.

 That being said, IF it were to actually occur, 6 days of 70+ at KATL within 12/20+ would obviously be a very impressive anomaly! How rare would that actually be? Extremely! It’s only occurred three times since 1878:

-2021 (warmest 75)
-2015 (warmest 77)
-1984 (warmest 74)

 Needless to say, this will be very interesting to follow!

The 12Z GFS has 6 days of the rest of Dec having a high of 70+ at KATL (12/24-29): 70, 73, 72, 70, 71, and 73. Granted, 2 of the 6 days on this barely make 70. So, getting 6 won’t be easy. Many models including earlier GFS runs don’t have 70+ on 12/29 with the 5 of 12/24-28 more common for the most.

 That being said, IF it were to actually occur, 6 days of 70+ at KATL within 12/20+ would obviously be a very impressive anomaly! How rare would that actually be? Extremely! It’s only occurred three times since 1878:

-2021 (warmest 75)
-2015 (warmest 77)
-1984 (warmest 74)

 Needless to say, this will be very interesting to follow!

 As I just posted, this time a year ago had a much colder weeks 3-4 outlook than now. But I also said that a somewhat better comparison might be how it looked for Jan 2022 at this time, when instead of one of the coldest week 3-4 outlooks on record for the SE half of the US, it was suggesting a mild SE half of the US (including Mid-Atlantic) was a better possibility:

 A little after this point in Dec of 2021, when there was a similar very strong -PNA to what’s being forecasted for late Dec, the weeks 3-4 outlook was far different than it was in 2024:

 How did Jan 8-21, 2022 verify in Greensboro, NC? They ended up 4 BELOW normal and had two 1”+ snowfalls. So, one would have had no clue from NOAA even as late as Dec 24th that a cold Jan of 2022 in much of the E US was incoming.

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I have to agree with Eric Webb here. Despite what twitter is saying, this year looks absolutely nothing at all like last year at this time. It’s not even remotely close. The twitterologists either don’t have any semblance of a clue as to what they’re talking about or are straight up wishcasting if they think we are going right into the exact same pattern we had last winter by early January
 

 
I agree that this is nothing like how Jan, 2025 was looking at this point in Dec of 2024, when the Euro Weeklies were much colder and this was the NOAA weeks 3-4 outlook, one of the coldest on record for the SE half of the US:

AAM forecast had this then:
 

Current AAM forecast:

 A somewhat better comparison might be this time in Dec of 2021, when there was a similarly very strong -PNA, Christmas was looking very warm, and there were still no strong hints on the 2 week guidance that a huge change was on the way although some CFS runs were cold in part of Jan.