GaWx

Fwiw this article was just released:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/early-southwest-heat-latest-parade-070743575.html

 Note this paragraph:

“Climate scientists at World Weather Attribution did a flash analysis — which is not peer-reviewed yet — of whether climate change was a factor in this Southwest heat wave. They compared this week's expected temperatures to what's been observed in the area in March since 1900 and computer models of a world with climate change. They found that ‘events as warm as in March 2026 would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change.’”

 Any opinions about this article?

I read this today from a pro-met. @donsutherland1and others, I’m curious about your thoughts about this:

“Many of the radiation absorption bands for CO2 OVERLAP with H2O. H2O is 95% of the planet's greenhouse gas effect(we would be a frozen wasteland without the BENEFICIAL greenhouse effect).  Turns out that in areas with higher dew points, those overlapping absorption bands ARE ALREADY SATURATED by H2O!! In those cases and in those bands, it doesn't matter how much CO2 that you add. When they are already absorbing 100% of the long wave, heat radiation of what they are capable of because of water vapor/H2O, adding CO2 in those bands will have near 0 impact.

Now the kicker. Cold places lack water vapor in the dry air so CO2 will be impacting bands that are NOT saturated from H2O absorbing. We can see that on the graph above. However, DESERTS also lack water vapor, so they too are seeing a greater impact from CO2 than the rest of the planet at the same latitude. Even DESERTS located in already hot places, like Phoenix.

Turns out that DESERTS are warming at a similar, elevated rated to the Arctic.”

Opinions?

2 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

50 states x 12 months = 600 records for "highest temperature for state X during month Y".

To be honest - breaking one of those every now and then seems like not so much of a big deal, and would be expected regardless of whether the planet is warming or not.

Point being - perhaps showing trendlines of more broad data would be a lot more meaningful and poignant that touting a given broken single-state record for a given month.   As it is these posts with their desert graphics, and the obvious troll phrasing, seem very... tabloidish (or perhaps clickbait-ish being the modern equivalent), especially on a forum that thrives on deep data analysis.

 

Good point although the good possibility of Phoenix approaching if not reaching 105, the hottest on record in April, during some point within the next 3 days is amazing. But Don, myself, and others realize that their rapid growth’s caused increasing UHI has also been a notable factor.

 Speaking of UHI though, isn’t that more of a factor for warm lows than hot highs? 

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would give the CPC a "C" grade

I think it was a D.

I had another great walk this evening with upper 40s, light winds, and dewpoints in the middle 30s.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The final countdown 

 Anthony, today’s NAO forecast is consistent with yesterday’s (bad/+):

Yesterday’s GEFS:

Today’s GEFS:

 Could an earlier than avg final strat warming be coming next week? This suggests some chance. Opinions? @snowman19

Gainesville, FL (aka Hogtown) got down to 30! Impressive radiation like usual.

KTLH 30

KSAV 31 (official SAV station, the airport)

KSVN 34 (very likely more representative of my low)

Today’s MJO forecasts still are all in phases 7 and 8, the coldest in Baltimore (as rep. city) in March on average following La Niña winters:

@EastonSN+

1 hour ago, roardog said:

There’s a lot of things that make a very strong Nino look likely but I can’t shake the fact that it’s only been 3 years since we’ve had one and the PDO is still negative. March isn’t over yet but right now the 30 day SOI is still extremely positive. As Chuck showed, the very strong Ninos never have an extremely positive March SOI. I guess we’ll see. 

And the Euro, one of the warmest currently, does have a warm bias plus RONI is ~0.5 lower right now. In addition, Eric’s bold calls shouldn’t be mistaken for him necessarily being likely to be right as he’s had his share of busts.

 Today’s MJO forecasts are suggesting it may back up into phase 7 in a portion of the rest of this month but otherwise be in phase 8. Those two phases have averaged the two coldest March post winter La Niña phases in Baltimore, which tells me it will be rather difficult for warmth to win out overall the rest of this month despite some of the days being warm in between cold periods:

GEFS:

EPS:

3 hours ago, suzook said:

28 degrees at 5:30 am, will probably drop another degree or 2 before sunrise. This blows. A forecast high of 48 with wind chills in the low 30's this afternoon. We usually have outdoor activities for st Pat's day downtown. I'll stay home. I already see black on the tips of just bloomed perennials. Wondering how much damage there will be to plants and such that bloomed already. 

 From summery low 90s in some areas just a few days ago back to winter now! It was down to 32 all of the way down to parts of N FL including Cross City, Crestview, and Pensacola! KSAV was 34. Look out tonight for areas that radiate decently to have even colder lows. Some of these areas have freeze warnings for tonight.

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Those were not 65+ knots. Those would be marked in black. 

My bad. I misinterpreted the high wind report categories. Now I realize that there were none of 65 knots+ and there also were no large hail reports.

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Most of those came with the NCFR last evening more than likely. 

Are you saying that the front itself produced that many 65+ knot reports?  If so, wow!

 I have just read some very sad news. Roger Smith, who ran the annual hurricane season forecast contests in this forum at least going back to 2016, passed away on February 24th. He put a lot of thought into these contests as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios. The large number of contestants is all one needs to know to realize how well run these were.
 May Roger rest in peace.

https://www.clarksfuneral.ca/obituaries/Roger-James-Smith?obId=47411042

 This is very sad to read.  Roger also ran annual AmericanWx hurricane season forecast contests at least going back to 2016, which is how I best knew him. He put a lot of thought into these as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios.
 May Roger rest in peace.

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

 I just took an enjoyable walk in 47F windy post cold frontal 34F dew-point Canadian air at a park. I love strong cold fronts! Trash bins and other things were blown over there from this wind. Looking forward to more walks in this great wx the rest of the week.

 Looking for a low in the mid 30s at KSAV followed by a mid 50s high tomorrow making for one of the coldest St. Patrick’s Day parades in a long time! Erin go Blarney!

7 minutes ago, EarlGrey said:

The line going through Wake right now is legit. 38mph gust from it so far.

I’m guessing that’s right ahead of the cold front, itself. And what a cold front! Second memorable one within a week. This one may not have as much contrast between airmasses, but it’s going to make it significantly colder and for longer than what came in after the prior one.

1 hour ago, michaeljames said:

With the Climate Prediction Center noting an 80% chance of El Niño for the peak hurricane months, the 2026 Atlantic season could be heavily influenced by these conditions. Historically, strong ENSO anomalies often lead to shifts in storm frequency and intensity. The discussion here provides a good perspective on how early subsurface signals can forecast seasonal hurricane patterns.

 Moderate to strong El Niños also often have a lot to say about prevailing tracks and direction of movement. From what I’ve researched of Nino seasons, there’s a tendency for more of the MDR tracks to not go as far west in the basin vs non-Nino seasons. They tend to gain latitude more quickly and recurve further east. But these are just averages and it takes only one to make for a very bad season.

 In addition to increased shear, El Nino seasons may tend to be less moist in the tropics.

Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod.

I don’t know what forum covers Birmingham, AL, but they got ~1”!! Is that insane?

1 minute ago, suzook said:

With 2 nights in a row in the mid 20's, it definitely could go dormant again. Yes, you are right, with low 80's again this weekend, it should bounce right back. Temp down to 37 now, definitely gonna see some backend snow.

 Can you believe this? Birmingham measured ~1”!! That’s insane!

It’s sleeting all the way down to Peachtree City well south of Atlanta!

2 minutes ago, suzook said:

Yup, sleeting here now with a temp of 38. I was in my pool yesterday. This is nuts. My Bermuda grass is 80% green. Say goodbye to that after tomorrow morning. Not happy about that.

1. It will go dormant that fast?

2. It will turn green again, regardless, very soon.

6 hours ago, suzook said:

Wouldn't be a typical morning in GA without a tornado watch in March. Picked up 3/4 inch or rain so far. Going down to 24 tonight, back in the 80's Friday. Crazy 

Photo confirmation of sleet pellets falling on my sis’ deck just now! She’s not far from Emory area of NE ATL.