GaWx

 I somehow missed posting about Sunday’s rainfall rough estimate at my home. I was alerted to it by Cocorahs and local TV wx. I very roughly estimate my home got 1”. That gets my total MTD through yesterday of a solidly wetter than normal ~8.85” to help the drought.

14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Dec, Jan, Feb :

 

Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps?

 My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs.

Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Cansips for DJF:

Do you have the 2m maps?

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I will do so. It should be available by around September 5th. 

In terms of the 400-year period, he's overgeneralizing and cherry-picking from this study, which deals with spring in the western Himalayas. 

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/2/132

He's also ignoring this information:

Our reconstruction showed cooler conditions during 1658-1681 CE, 1705-1722 CE, 1753-1773 CE, 1796-1874 CE, 1900-1936 CE, and 1973 CE. Periods with comparably warmer conditions occurred in 1600-1625 CE, 1633-1657 CE, 1682-1704 CE, 1740-1752 CE, 1779-1795 CE, 1936-1945 CE, 1956-1972 CE, and at the beginning of the 21st century...

The impact of climate change in the central Himalayan region of Nepal is more pronounced compared to other regions at similar latitudes... and hence Nepal is experiencing higher rates of temperature increase than the global average.... However, the observed warming rates show significant spatial variability, with a more pronounced warming trend in higher altitudes...

Also, with regard to an added explanation that the rock beneath the glacier collapsed, some arguments are already being made that this disproves a climate link. Instead, it reveals the complexity of the processes. Frost-wedging from repeated freezes and thawing contribute to such developments. The water that finds its way into even microfissures expands as it freezes. It then melts when temperatures warm. This repeated cycle eventually causes larger cracks and, ultimately, the rock to split or break. The warming climate in the high alpine regions of the Himalayas has accelerated this form of rock weathering. 

For what it's worth, the New York Botanical Garden has a large glacial erratic called the "Split Rock." The rock ultimately split from repeated freeze-thawing cycles. Here's a photo of it from last winter.

In short, frost-wedging might well have increased the fragility of the rock beneath the glacier leading to its fracturing. 

Thanks, Don. I can tell that Chris Martz has been affecting JB recently. Until recently, I recall JB (like many other mets) used to mention “heat dome” regularly without a sarcastic tone. But this summer whenever he mentions it, he often does so with a sarcastic tone. He doesn’t go out of his way to say it isn’t appropriate. But he clearly sounds like he’s making fun of the term and isn’t as comfortable using it like in the past.

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's winter in the southern hemisphere. The latest weekly value for Region 1+2 is +4.2°C, its highest weekly value, so far.

 Thanks, Don.

 Just to clarify for the readers in general, in case there’s confusion since I posted about Region 1+2 just four posts above Don’s, the +4.2 C Don posted for 1+2 is based on the traditional anomaly using 30 year base climo. The +3.5 I posted is based on taking into account warming overall mean worldwide tropical ocean temperatures to determine its anomaly. This is essentially a Region 1+2 version of Region 3.4’s RONI (called “relative”), which NOAA has decided to make official even though they continue to also update the traditional versions:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

3 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

That's pretty typical for the mountains during monsoon season. Some years you can set your watch by them, right after lunch. I've been caught in more than one on my bike, grateful for the helmet.  One good thing is that the mountains very rarely have severe-size (1") hail.

 I went to Maroon Bells via Aspen on Saturday, where I got caught in a light rain shower. That was one amazing place with some of the best views I’ve ever seen! I took 80 mainly pics with a few videos. If you haven’t been, I very strongly recommend it. Has anyone here gone there?
 
 I started the day driving to Aspen that morning. I first took a free city bus from Aspen to the Aspen Highlands ski resort. Then I took a reserved shuttle from there to Maroon Bells. I arrived just before 11:30AM and got to the lake at 11:45. I figured that would still be early enough to miss the rain per what the Euro/GFS/UK/Icon/RRFS/NAM showed. They all suggested it wouldn’t rain til at least 2PM and more likely not til  3PM. But sure enough, it rapidly clouded up and it started raining at just after 1PM. Is it common for the models to be too late on the start of monsoon activity each day?
 

 Fortunately though, it remained light and there was no lightning. Luckily, the rain ended ~1:30. It never rained enough to make the trail slippery or muddy. As I was leaving ~2:30, it just started raining lightly again.

@ValpoVike

12Z UKMET and other global probably are of little value due to how tiny system is. But fwiw and for the record:

12Z UKMET initializes this as a TD:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 91.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 0 28.3N 91.0W 1013 20
0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 27.9N 92.2W 1012 19
1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 29.2N 93.5W 1012 20
0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In a few days, the August monthly anomaly will also be available on Copernicus. Even if the summer average were cooler than normal, it's worth pointing out that the toll taken on glaciers in a warming climate is cumulative. Glaciers don't reset automatically when things turn cooler. That's a point Bastardi either doesn't understand or chooses to ignore. 

 Don, your entire post 100% makes sense. Regardless, please post the August map if you get a chance. Even assuming one cooler than normal summer wouldn’t suddenly stabilize the glaciers, I want to see whether or not his supposed summer map is essentially a lie in itself. TIA.

 And on what the heck is he basing his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years?? Is this just made up out of thin air?

14 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm sorry, is the ice melt actually accelerating because of GW, or does it only seem that way because as the ice sheet has been getting smaller for 1000s of years, the rate of acceleration increased because the smaller the ice, the more heat it absorbs.  A larger piece of ice has a massive volume packed behind a smaller proportional surface area. It needs a lot more heat energy to change from solid to liquid, which takes more time.  As it gets smaller, that accelerates. 

Thanks for elaborating. I see. But this begs the question: why is the ice sheet getting smaller in the first place? Isn’t that in itself due to GW? 

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The dates are cropped off his map, which is bad practice at a minimum. June was near normal with an area of cool anomalies in the Nepal/Tibet region. July was mainly warmer than normal. Here are the maps for June and July from Copernicus:

June:

July:

The region saw extreme heat during August 10-15, 2026. Kathmandu reached 32.3C (90.1F) on August 11, setting a daily record. Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology also reported that the mercury soared to 38.5C (101.3F) at Janakpur on August 13 and 37.5C (99.5F) at Lahan on August 15. Whether or not this round of heat was critical to destabilizing things remains to be seen.

Finally, Nepal has been warming dramatically in recent years.

 

 

Thanks, Don!

 -I agree with you about the lack of dates and other references on his map, which I mentioned to Charlie in my reply to him. That makes me wonder if he’s hiding something.

 -So, based on your June and July maps, June-July averaged near normal along the Nepal-Tibet border vs a 1991-2020 base, the warmest 30 year base. Taking that as well as the extreme heat of Aug 10-15 into account, it would seemingly have had to have been much colder than normal Aug 1-9 and Aug 16+ to possibly result in a cooler than normal summer. I have my doubts knowing who we’re dealing with here.

-He also has nearly all of Tibet in blue colors. But your June/July maps averaged out appear to average warmer than normal over much of Tibet if I’m interpreting them correctly. Thus, August would have had to have been an overall cold month to have a chance to overcome the warmer than avg June-July.

9 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Is it accelerating because of GW, or is it that since it is smaller ice absorbs heat more quickly then when it was larger?  I always wondered that.

Thanks. Please elaborate. I’m not sure I’m following what you’re asking.

12 hours ago, chubbs said:

BS, its well known that glaciers around the world are shrinking rapidly due to climate change. The Himalayas are no exception.  The increasing local risk from glacier melting was described as a "crisis" earlier this year:

https://www.icimod.org/press-releases/hindu-kush-himalaya-glaciers-losing-ice-at-double-the-rate-since-2000-new-icimod-report-confirm/

Kathmandu, 18 March 2026 – Glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) are melting at an accelerating rate, with ice loss rates doubling since the year 2000, according to two new landmark reports that will be released on 21 March 2026 by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to mark World Day for Glaciers.

The reports, Changing Dynamics of Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region from 1990 to 2020 and HKH Glacier Outlook 2026: Insights from 50 Years of Himalayan Glacier Monitoring, provide the most comprehensive evidence yet of glacier change in the region. They reveal a total loss of up to 27 metres of ice thickness since 1975, sounding an alarm for the nearly two billion people downstream who depend on meltwater from the ‘Water Towers of Asia’.

“This isn’t a distant problem; it’s a crisis unfolding in real-time, with new disasters every summer and monsoon. The fact that ice loss rates have doubled this century should shock us all into action,” said Pema Gyamtsho, Director General of ICIMOD. “The Hindu Kush Himalaya is at a crossroads. The rapidly escalating impacts we’re seeing from water uncertainty to catastrophic floods underscore that we are in a critical decade for the cryosphere. We must scale up monitoring and invest in adaptation now. These aren’t blind spots becoming surprises anymore; they are our new reality.”

 Thanks, Charlie, for posting that. None of what you posted from that article surprises me. I’m not at all expecting to take JB’s side, especially because he’s a proud denier of AGW being a significant factor in GW.

 But what do you know about his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years? Did he just make this up? From where would he have gotten accurate data so far back?
 

 Also, does that map of his that I reposted supposedly showing a somewhat cooler than normal summer along the Nepal-Tibet border have any significance even if accurate? I noticed it has no legend and no reference like the base period and the period these blue colors are representing. He’s saying this is the “wrong summer” to claim a disaster was based on GW. But even if it truly was cooler than normal this summer there, would that even matter being that melting supposedly would have already been put in motion due to supposedly prior warmer than normal periods?

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Euro and GFS both out to mid September with no tropical development. The question may start getting real soon... Can we go a whole season without a hurricane?

Of course it’s possible. I’d put odds at ~25% as of now. Based on the fact that none are shown on current models, this being progged to be the strongest Nino on record, and the modern analog 1997, which had its last TC become a H on Sept 4th, it’s a realistic possibility though still not anywhere near a likelihood this early in the season. That’s why I’m roughly estimating a 25% chance.

 Today’s release for last week averaged out has a notable rise in 1+2:

19AUG2026         3.2        2.5        1.8        0.0
 26AUG2026         3.5        2.6        1.8        0.1

To compare, here’s 1997:

27AUG1997         3.3        2.6        1.9        0.4

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 I just watched Joe Bastardi’s free to the public Saturday Summary. He says the Nepal disaster has nothing to do with CC. Why?

-He says that there has been no net change in temperature in Nepal in 400 years!

-He shows a summer temp. anomaly map that has blue colors all over Tibet  including the Tibet-Nepal border.

 So, I’d like to know whether or not these two things are true. Anyone know?

@donsutherland1

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET for 2nd full run in a row has a TC originating in the W MDR well out in the run. 0Z had a TD but 12Z has a strengthening mid-grade TS as it recurves well away from any landmass due to a notable upper trough per H5 maps:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 52.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 15.8N 52.0W 1011 25
0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 16.9N 55.0W 1010 30
1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 17.8N 57.6W 1008 35
0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 19.3N 59.2W 1006 41
1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 20.8N 59.6W 1002 48

 The 0Z UKMET (as an TD) and CMC still have this recurving TC.

0Z: UKMET and CMC both dropped the return of Dolly.

 Early afternoon in Vail I saw the strongest thunderstorm of my CO trip. It got so dark just before the start! I considered it to be severe with very strong winds at the start bringing down cold air into the 50s. The winds must have been 50++, which the aspens handled well. Soon after good drought helping heavy rain fell followed by lots of pea sized hail that lasted ~5 minutes. As a result of 3 periods of rain, it was in the 50s most of the afternoon! Sure beats GA summer heat and humidity!

It’s down to 48 with rain and wind. Feels like what typical winter day would be in Savannah! This is why I like coming here in summer.

12z Euro: looks like a TD that comes ashore near LA/TX border midday Tue.

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the highest august value minus the lowest july value is over 1c

I’m talking about models that had avg for Aug minus avg for July ~1C. It’s looking more like just 0.5C.

12Z UKMET for 2nd full run in a row has a TC originating in the W MDR well out in the run. 0Z had a TD but 12Z has a strengthening mid-grade TS as it recurves well away from any landmass due to a notable upper trough per H5 maps:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 52.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 15.8N 52.0W 1011 25
0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 16.9N 55.0W 1010 30
1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 17.8N 57.6W 1008 35
0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 19.3N 59.2W 1006 41
1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 20.8N 59.6W 1002 48

12Z UKMET doesn’t quite designate this as a TD but it does have 25 knot winds just offshore LA Mon night and landfall Tue AM near TX/LA border. Lowest SLP only gets down to 1011 mb fwiw.

12 UKMET: ex-Dolly becomes a TD right before it moves NW into FL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 26.5N 78.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2026 108 27.5N 79.5W 1008 29
1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 29.2N 81.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 30.8N 83.2W 1008 24
1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 32.0N 85.4W 1009 19
0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 32.8N 87.3W 1008 18
1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 33.1N 87.9W 1008 20

 August overall was a notable bust for Nino 3.4 as several models had had a steep anomaly warming of a record breaking ~1C from July to Aug whereas the last 4 weeks have overall been net ~flat meaning a warming from July to August of only ~0.5C. Thus, the progged Nov peaks have recently been dropping on the CFS: 

0Z UKMET: H at 168 strengthening on a slow WNW move in Gulf

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 24.6N 78.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2026 108 24.9N 79.9W 1008 30
0000UTC 04.09.2026 120 25.9N 82.1W 1005 33
1200UTC 04.09.2026 132 27.3N 84.2W 1001 38
0000UTC 05.09.2026 144 28.0N 86.2W 996 43
1200UTC 05.09.2026 156 28.4N 87.8W 989 61
0000UTC 06.09.2026 168 28.7N 88.9W 977 68