GaWx

20 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I know 1914 has lowest ACE on record.  I consider anything not in the satellite era questionable.

In the satellite era what season has lowest ACE?  

17.4 (1983)

 Going back all the way to 1851, only 3 had lower ACE than 1983 and all of them could have been higher in reality due to being way before the satellite era: 1914, 1925, 1907

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

 I ended up getting only ~2.55” of rainfall in Sept, which is well below the longterm average of >4.5”. The upcoming progged significant rainfall in early Oct here would be most welcomed!

Tulsa, OK, was 84.3 F in Sep ‘26, which was in addition to being 10.1 warmer than the longterm Sep mean:

- 2.4 warmer than its 2nd warmest Sep

- 1.4 warmer than its longterm mean for July

- warmer than 69% of Julys, 74% of Augusts, and 98% of Junes on record (records back to 1905)

@donsutherland1

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 As I said, I’ve been following model initializations of 2m at 80+ N. They were colder than climo most of late May-early Aug.

 Check out those of the Euro for yesterday: clearly solidly BN vs 1981-2010 for 80N+ on Sep 29th (associated with a storm)(they were also quite cold going back to Sep 23rd by the way), which may actually be cold enough to support the ~2C colder than the 1958-2002 mean shown on the newest DMI graph:

 

 Here’s the Euro forecast for Oct 2nd, which shows notable warming as the storm moves S into Siberia. This is why I’m expecting warming on the DMI graphs by then:

@so_whats_happening@OSUmetstud

Follow-up: As expected based on the model consensus having significantly warmer 2m maps on Sep 30th vs Sep 29th at 80N+, the DMI warmed notably yesterday (>1C) vs Sep 29th as it rose to the blue line (mean for 1958-2002). It should warm further tomorrow:

12Z UKMET: Fay starts off deceased but she gets revived once again (on Friday) and like 2 runs ago later becomes a TS: 

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 27.3N 60.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2026 60 27.3N 60.5W 1014 27
1200UTC 03.10.2026 72 29.3N 60.6W 1013 28
0000UTC 04.10.2026 84 31.8N 60.1W 1012 30
1200UTC 04.10.2026 96 34.0N 58.9W 1012 30
0000UTC 05.10.2026 108 35.6N 57.1W 1011 29
1200UTC 05.10.2026 120 37.5N 55.3W 1009 30
0000UTC 06.10.2026 132 40.2N 53.3W 1004 33
1200UTC 06.10.2026 144 44.7N 49.2W 996 41
0000UTC 07.10.2026 156 51.2N 44.3W 992 43
1200UTC 07.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

@jconsor

 As I said, I’ve been following model initializations of 2m at 80+ N. They were colder than climo most of late May-early Aug.

 Check out those of the Euro for yesterday: clearly solidly BN vs 1981-2010 for 80N+ on Sep 29th (associated with a storm)(they were also quite cold going back to Sep 23rd by the way), which may actually be cold enough to support the ~2C colder than the 1958-2002 mean shown on the newest DMI graph:

 Here’s the Euro forecast for Oct 2nd, which shows notable warming as the storm moves S into Siberia. This is why I’m expecting warming on the DMI graphs by then:

@so_whats_happening@OSUmetstud

3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

The ecmwf was upgraded on May 12, 2026. What do you notice?

IFS users will also see the introduction of the new NEMO4-SI³ ocean and sea-ice model, bringing substantial improvements in forecasts and analysis over the marine areas, as well as over 40 new ocean and sea ice-related variables. Key improvements include a more accurate representation of how sea ice affects the power of waves and the interactions between waves and ocean currents, often at play in rougher seas. Other improvements for IFS include improved tropical upper-air temperature and wind forecasts, and improvements to temperature and humidity forecasts around the tropopause.

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/ifs-cycle-50r1-aifsv2-live

What's likely happening here is actually the new ecmwf 2 m temperatures over the Arctic are more accurate as the near surface inversion is more properly coupled to the ice and the cold ocean. The old 2 m ERA40 climatology is what's too warm. 

 Due to the timing of the upgrade, I’m also quite suspicious that this Euro 5/12/26 upgrade MAY have contributed to the colder 2026 vs previous summers. So, I do see what you’re saying. Thats why I went to that other forum and spent a couple of hours to see if anyone pointed to that. But nobody did in those hundreds of posts from very knowledgeable folks, including very experienced pro-mets. If this Euro upgrade is really a contributor or possibly even the main cause, don’t you think at least one person there would have mentioned that?

 That’s why I’d prefer to keep an open mind until there’s decent agreement among the met. community. Do you see anything wrong with that? You may be right and you’d then deserve major kudos, but I’d first Iike to see some consensus. But even if you’re right, can’t 2026 still be a cold outlier but to a lesser extent?

4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

This plot is not consistent with 2 m temperature being 2 C below the much older 1958 to 2002 climatology all summer. This area is all ocean/ice. 

 Because the plot he posted was for May-Aug, I’ll analyze that period. Looking at the image below, May-Aug averaged ~1.3C, not ~2C, below the much older 1958-2002 climo: May was ~-2C, June was ~-2C, July was ~-1C, and Aug was ~-0.1C. This means ~-1.3C for the avg of May-Aug rather than -2C. However, I do realize that -1.3C vs 1958-2002 would be a good bit more negative vs 1991-2020….perhaps as much as ~-3C?? So, that would be colder than what that 925 mb anomaly map suggests for 80N+, which I roughly estimate to be -1.25C:

 However, that image is for 925 mb, not 2m. Isn’t it possible that the 2m anom was colder than the 925 mb anom?

4 hours ago, jconsor said:

Larry,
I think that UKMET forecast showing Fay coming back this weekend is likely not a total outlier.

Moreover, seems Fay may have been deactivated too fast; it's almost like she's taunting NHC - every time they try to deactivate her, convection increases and she refuses to die!

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2105201133736415667

Yaakov,

 So, the Energizer Bunny may really come back for a 3rd time? Holy cow!

 Here’s the 0Z UKMET, which suggests that:

0Z UKMET actually has it as a non-TC tomorrow:

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 48.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2026 0 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.3N 50.8W 1014 22
0000UTC 01.10.2026 24 CEASED TRACKING


 When I first saw this part of the 0Z textual output, I thought that even the UKMET had finally given up on it. But as I looked further down to look at other TCs, what did I see? Fay came back 36 hours later!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.4N 58.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2026 60 25.4N 58.6W 1015 25
0000UTC 03.10.2026 72 26.8N 59.6W 1014 27
1200UTC 03.10.2026 84 28.3N 60.5W 1014 26
0000UTC 04.10.2026 96 30.3N 60.5W 1014 26
1200UTC 04.10.2026 108 32.2N 59.4W 1014 27
0000UTC 05.10.2026 120 33.6N 58.4W 1013 26
1200UTC 05.10.2026 132 34.6N 56.7W 1011 25
0000UTC 06.10.2026 144 35.4N 55.1W 1009 24
1200UTC 06.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

16 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is something you certainly do not see very often in this warmer world, especially in the confines of the Arctic. It was a solid retention year to say the least. Whether the temps are representative or not the overall pattern would suggest things didn't go haywire. 

It was a shame we started at such a low point from the previous winter which is weird coming out of La Nina to see such low volumes for sea ice.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out going into winter.

I started following the model consensus of 2m temps for the high Arctic regularly since May. The majority of the time through early August they initialized with a mean of BN fwiw.

4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its a data bug. The reanalysis data up there for July and August is near normal.

https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/2075198146641051650

 

Thanks for posting about this.

 After reading your post, I decided it would be worthwhile to check out another forum (which includes other pro-mets):

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php

 I read hundreds of posts in their “The 2026 melting season” thread. The first post I saw mentioning the unusually cold DMI 80+ N temperatures was on 5/25/26 (post #268) on the following page (p. 6) by very experienced pro-met Niall Dollard:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.250.html

 Niall said, “I suspect we will see a rapid increase on the DMI N80 graph in the next day or two, as that deep low advects warmth into the general DMI N80 area near the pole. 

Unusually, the daily mean has been below the 1958-2002 mean for much of the month of May.”

————————
  Then go to p. 9 and look at post #474 on 7/16/26 from pro-met Glen Koehler in here:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.450.html

Glen said: “The DMI 80N values are unprecedented.  I looked at every annual chart for 1958-2026, and no other year has such a large and prolonged period of below 2C temperature during June and July.”  
 
and

”The 2026 DMI 80N chart is so anomalous that it makes me wonder if a sensor or data processing change is affecting the 80N chart in summer 2026.  Anoother possibility is that the slushification of the ice near the North pole is creating a different relationship between ice and 2M air temperature.”

————————

Then @TheClimateChanger, who you may recall used to go by “Frivolous” here, posted in #490 (also on p.9) as “Frivolousz21” on 7/18/26 as a reply to Glen:

”It's not from an error. It's just that there has been a relentless PV anomaly and essentially next to no unimpeded solar insolation.  

 It's been pretty crazy.  This might end up the best year for ice retention since 2006.”

————————

 I went through the rest of the thread and there never was agreement on the cause. So, it remains a mystery there.

 I respect your knowledge and appreciate your post on this. But I plan to continue posting these DMI graphs at least until if/when there’s strong agreement in the overall pro-met community with you that 2026 really isn’t as cold relative to past years as the graphs show.

——————

 Today’s daily update had another sharp cooling (~1C) from yesterday keeping it colder than the blue line’s climo:

 I just looked at the model consensus and it is, indeed, solidly BN N of 80N. However, those same models are showing significant warming to AN very quickly. So, I’m expecting it to go back above the blue line within just a couple of days at most.

 Fay was again downgraded to a TD and looks like it is dissipating. However, the 12Z UKMET restrengthens Fay to a TS this weekend that then comes within 175 miles ESE of Bermuda.  I’m not yet buying this, but I’m not assuming anything with the Energizer Bunny that is Fay. This is the 3rd run in a row near Bermuda and the umpteenth run in a row that keeps the Energizer Bunny going:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 47.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2026 0 24.3N 47.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.0N 51.2W 1014 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 36 23.0N 53.1W 1014 23
1200UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.8N 55.4W 1015 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 60 24.4N 57.2W 1015 26
1200UTC 02.10.2026 72 25.6N 59.1W 1014 28
0000UTC 03.10.2026 84 26.5N 60.6W 1013 30
1200UTC 03.10.2026 96 27.5N 61.9W 1011 32
0000UTC 04.10.2026 108 28.7N 62.3W 1011 33
1200UTC 04.10.2026 120 30.1N 62.2W 1010 36
0000UTC 05.10.2026 132 31.5N 61.9W 1010 36
1200UTC 05.10.2026 144 33.1N 61.0W 1009 39
0000UTC 06.10.2026 156 35.1N 59.4W 1008 32
1200UTC 06.10.2026 168 37.5N 56.2W 1006 34

It’s beautiful at ATL with low 80s, sunny and dewpoints near 50.

 The Braves are playing in the first game of the playoffs in this beautiful wx. It’s currently 1-1 in the middle of the 3rd. Go Braves!

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1963 and 1968 (both -PDO) are the only El Nino events of appreciable intensity....1958, 1976 and 1977, like 2004, were weak.

 If I had added another El Niño to the list, it would have been 1991, which did average slightly BN Sep 28th-Dec 31st and thus is the coldest strong to very strong Nino at 80+ N for 9/28-12/31 averaged out:

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1963 is the only El Nino of appreciable intensity....1958, 1976 and 1977, like 2004, were weak....1968 was borderline weak/mod.

What about the very cold 1987, which peaked higher (+1.3) although early (JAS/ASO)? Are you not counting it due to early peak?

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good question...I guess the year in the aggregate?

Coldest 1958-2023 at 80+N for El Niño for aggregate period Sep 28th-Dec 31st:

1987: coldest

1976:2nd coldest

1968: 3rd coldest

Others that were also cold overall but not top 3 cold:

1979:

1977:

1963:

1958:

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know that.....I mean the entire list of cold arctic years.

I’ll check. But first tell me this: do you mean around the current time (say, the same day (Sep 28th) or late Sept through Oct) or do you mean also later?

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2004 was a weak El Nino...any other warm ENSO years on that list?

2011 was moderate La Niña while 2000 was weak La Niña. Also, both were coming off of a prior year’s Niña.

 Recent Josh update on Polo on a farm he was staying at on Baja: includes a nice video of the peak as well as aftermath, which shows that people/farm animals weren’t injured despite significant damage to the farm. The main house he was staying in handled it well though:

 After having finally gotten back to slightly AN since late Aug (that was 1st time since way back in early May), note the recent drop and how cold it was yesterday N of 80N:

 2026 having it this cold N of 80N on Sep 28th is per this site technically the coldest this early in the season in 30 years, quite notable! I say “technically” though because it only barely beat 2011, 2004, and 2000. 

 Regardless, the most interesting comparison is to 2012-25, which were all much warmer/AN on Sep 28th:

1958-2002 mean: -11C
26: -13C
25: -7C
24: -9C
23: -8C
22: -7C
21: -8C
20: -5C
19: -5C
18: -5C
17: -8C
16: -7C
15: -8C
14: -7C
13: -9C
12: -9C
2012-25 mean: -7C

So, regarding Sep 28th, 2026 is:
1. 4-8C colder than every year since 2012
2. 6C colder than the mean of 2012-2025

 Yes, I’m mainly only talking in this post about a point in time and 80N+ is a small area in relation to the N hemisphere (only 1.5%). But it is a very important 1.5% due to Arctic ice. Also, that area is just coming off the coldest late May-early Aug back to 1958 by a good margin, implying the possibility that this overall cooling up there will have legs.

 I’ll keep following this to see if there’s cooling trend follow-through up there going ahead as this is quite interesting, especially due to its implications on Arctic ice since GW had lead to the greatest warming by a good margin in the Arctic. Is it possible that the massive warming up there is done at least for awhile? Could there be a new cycle that’s just started?

@Stormchaserchuck1@bluewave@Wild Weather Monger

8 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Another core penetration by Josh. new update from him on FB

"8:15 pm  Hearing distinct howling in the distance. Things starting to bang.
Hurricane POLO in Las Barrancas."
That 8:15pm is his local time

From 5AM EDT NHC discussion:

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

Corrected for Key Message number 1.

Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja
California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas.
Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out
(WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo
was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z.There is some
uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the
data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2
hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95
kt range.

Josh is about to be hit hard by very compact Polo as he was only 21 miles from the center 1/2 hour ago with only light rain and just some breezes:
 

 Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

 Were in another very long -SOI streak, 47 days!

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

The never say die Fay gets within 40 miles of Bermuda on the 12Z UKMET at 168!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 0 27.3N 44.7W 1014 26
0000UTC 29.09.2026 12 26.0N 45.6W 1013 24
1200UTC 29.09.2026 24 24.8N 47.4W 1012 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 36 23.9N 49.1W 1012 25
1200UTC 30.09.2026 48 23.5N 51.7W 1011 27
0000UTC 01.10.2026 60 23.4N 53.7W 1012 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 72 24.2N 56.1W 1012 29
0000UTC 02.10.2026 84 24.9N 57.9W 1013 28
1200UTC 02.10.2026 96 25.8N 59.8W 1012 30
0000UTC 03.10.2026 108 26.5N 61.2W 1012 29
1200UTC 03.10.2026 120 27.5N 62.3W 1011 31
0000UTC 04.10.2026 132 28.6N 63.0W 1011 31
1200UTC 04.10.2026 144 29.8N 63.7W 1012 29
0000UTC 05.10.2026 156 30.9N 64.4W 1012 29
1200UTC 05.10.2026 168 32.9N 64.6W 1014 26