GaWx

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

LOL

Stupid to call them the weeklies anymore. They should be called the dailies. Or the Euro extended, which they really are when you look at an actual map(ECMWF Ext. Ens). They haven't been a weekly product for quite awhile.

They’re still called Weeklies because that is based on their own extended maps being for one week at a time, not based on their release frequency. 

 Today’s Euro Weeklies run/extended EPS mean was the warmest run yet this season for the E US overall.

 Today’s extended GEFS doesn’t look much better for the E US its entire run if you prefer cold (like I do).

 But obviously I’m hopeful they will bust badly! A year ago at this time, they were cold for the E US and NOAA’s weeks 3-4 products were about the coldest on record for the SE US. I was posting a lot about those outlooks and was very excited. What a difference a year makes.

 They often have a decent clue as to the general upcoming pattern. But not always. So, we’ll see.

Today was another nice day for a walk here! Mid to low 60s, sunshine, a light breeze, and dewpoints in the 40s. Due largely to the great walking wx, I’ve taken walks every day since Nov 29th per my phone’s fitness ap. According to it over the last 10 years, I’ve never taken anywhere near that many days in a row of walks! Usually something (wx or other) gets in the way at least once a week.

6 hours ago, tacoman25 said:

Very persistent pattern. Something similar has happened before...1917 had an insanely warm and persistent pattern for the PNW/West. This one just looks a bit warmer and more persistent.

Don't tell the residents of Juneau, Fairbanks, or Whitehorse that this is what future Decembers will look like. All three are on track for one of their coldest Decembers on record.

And not surprisingly, Dec/Jan 1917-18 was (one of) the coldest in E US on record!

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m thankful and glad we had the 3 week stretch we did, it was great. But I think it’s perfectly normal to be a tad annoyed we’re headed into prime climo on a warm streak. You’re right though, it is what it is and it can’t be changed. I’m a big 4 seasons guy. I get salty less about the snow part and more of the me having to break out the shorts Christmas morning 

The good news is that highest on any 12Z model for Christmas in your area is only 65-68 and some are cooler. These are quite a bit lower than the 74ish record highs. ATL, otoh, may be pretty close to its 75 record.

23 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The warmth over Central US is very impressive, akin to the very warm Christmas we had here in December 2014 and December 2015. This is one of the few times where you would want a pacific jet extension to force storms into the west, which will roll the ridge through the east US and then maybe we can reset from there. But until that omega ridge subsides over Central US, CONUS is almost completely void of cold and snow. Horrendous

Nationally, 12/25/25 is going to be close to the historically warm 12/25/21.

15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Nationally, the hottest Christmas in modern history 

 It will be historically warm but 2021 was close.

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Do you know off hand what years those were with a EQBO?

22, 96, 84

The GEFS and EPS have big disagreement 12/25-1/3! Fwiw, JMA, BOM, and CFS favor GEFS:

Meanwhile, phase 8 , which helped bring strong cold Dec 3-7 and Dec 15 but won’t next week, returned on 12/17 and will likely be with us for awhile:

18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Some of yall on here actually like we just didn't go through an impressive 3 week cold and some snow stretch.  It's comical and im laughing.  All you can do. What's the saying.  This is the only weather you've got so enjoy it. Something like that. 

I loved the 3 week cold stretch! I’m still enjoying the cool/dry of yesterday and this weekend. Great for walking! Was down to mid 30s this AM. The impressive torch is progged to be most concentrated during 12/23-8 (and much of that period will still be pleasant with pretty low dewpoints) and with any later torchy days up in the air since good model skill doesn’t go out that far.

 Despite the warmup Charlotte will still likely end up NN for Dec. ATL likely slightly AN. RDU/GSO likely slightly BN.

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Curious...has our area ever done well with a strong PV before? Seems the -NAO may not be enough based on what JC is suggesting here...

Strong SPV during cold and snow Nashville since 79:

-Jans of 25, 22, 16, 00, 96, 84…so, 6 of 14 cold and snowy Jans had strong SPV (00 cold/snow last half of Jan)

-Feb of 96

Strong Jan SPV has been progged by Euro Weeklies, which have and usually do well:

Todays Euro Weeklies are looking better/pretty good for 1/12-2/1. See the main ENSO thread for maps/more details if interested.

 I’ll add that today’s weeklies have a stronger -NAO/-AO forming for 1/12-2/1:

1/12-18:

1/26-2/1:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are similar to the prior ones through Jan 11th with mild for much of the country though the warmest is closer to the C US, well away from the E US.

 However, today’s weeks 4-5 continue yesterday’s cooling trend:

1/12-18

12/17 run:

12/19 run:

1/19-25

12/18 run:

12/19 run:

And then week 6 is similar to yesterday’s in the E US:

 In summary, whereas the first 3 weeks (through 1/11) remain mild in much of the E US, the last 3 weeks (1/12-2/1) are mainly NN to a little BN in most of the E US with nothing even resembling warmth.

 The 1/19-25 map suggests a +PNA is trying to form:

 The 12Z GFS has 6 days of the rest of Dec having a high of 70+ at KATL (12/24-29): 70, 73, 72, 70, 71, and 73. Granted, 2 of the 6 days on this barely make 70. So, getting 6 won’t be easy. Many models including earlier GFS runs don’t have 70+ on 12/29 with the 5 of 12/24-28 more common for the most.

 That being said, IF it were to actually occur, 6 days of 70+ at KATL within 12/20+ would obviously be a very impressive anomaly! How rare would that actually be? Extremely! It’s only occurred three times since 1878:

-2021 (warmest 75)
-2015 (warmest 77)
-1984 (warmest 74)

 Needless to say, this will be very interesting to follow!

The 12Z GFS has 6 days of the rest of Dec having a high of 70+ at KATL (12/24-29): 70, 73, 72, 70, 71, and 73. Granted, 2 of the 6 days on this barely make 70. So, getting 6 won’t be easy. Many models including earlier GFS runs don’t have 70+ on 12/29 with the 5 of 12/24-28 more common for the most.

 That being said, IF it were to actually occur, 6 days of 70+ at KATL within 12/20+ would obviously be a very impressive anomaly! How rare would that actually be? Extremely! It’s only occurred three times since 1878:

-2021 (warmest 75)
-2015 (warmest 77)
-1984 (warmest 74)

 Needless to say, this will be very interesting to follow!

 As I just posted, this time a year ago had a much colder weeks 3-4 outlook than now. But I also said that a somewhat better comparison might be how it looked for Jan 2022 at this time, when instead of one of the coldest week 3-4 outlooks on record for the SE half of the US, it was suggesting a mild SE half of the US (including Mid-Atlantic) was a better possibility:

 A little after this point in Dec of 2021, when there was a similar very strong -PNA to what’s being forecasted for late Dec, the weeks 3-4 outlook was far different than it was in 2024:

 How did Jan 8-21, 2022 verify in Greensboro, NC? They ended up 4 BELOW normal and had two 1”+ snowfalls. So, one would have had no clue from NOAA even as late as Dec 24th that a cold Jan of 2022 in much of the E US was incoming.

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I have to agree with Eric Webb here. Despite what twitter is saying, this year looks absolutely nothing at all like last year at this time. It’s not even remotely close. The twitterologists either don’t have any semblance of a clue as to what they’re talking about or are straight up wishcasting if they think we are going right into the exact same pattern we had last winter by early January
 

 
I agree that this is nothing like how Jan, 2025 was looking at this point in Dec of 2024, when the Euro Weeklies were much colder and this was the NOAA weeks 3-4 outlook, one of the coldest on record for the SE half of the US:

AAM forecast had this then:
 

Current AAM forecast:

 A somewhat better comparison might be this time in Dec of 2021, when there was a similarly very strong -PNA, Christmas was looking very warm, and there were still no strong hints on the 2 week guidance that a huge change was on the way although some CFS runs were cold in part of Jan.

26 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The projected cold weather between Christmas and new years is quickly slipping away. Hopefully we can get a pattern reset in early January akin to January 2024 because that shook things up quite a bit and prevented a January-March 2023 repeat with an eastern ridge. Something will have to give at some point, or that’s quite the headfake the models were throwing at us 

Well, I just added something to my last post that may cheer you up. The models are actually suggesting a good chance this moved right back into 8 either yesterday or today! So, we might go right back to celebrating as early as tomorrow!

On 12/17/2025 at 6:48 PM, GaWx said:

Ladies and gentlemen, can I have your attention, please? The results are in and we did it. The MJO went back into phase 8 on Dec 15th, the coldest day of the season to date! Let the celebrations begin! The weenies are gonna party like it’s Feb 1899!

 

Talk about a turnaround! After one day of glee and bigtime celebration due to our immense accomplishment of getting phase 8 back, it’s already gone. The MJO moved into phase 7 two days ago. Turn out the lights, the party’s over (well as of two days ago at least). 
 

But the good news is that the models are suggesting a good chance this moved right back into 8 either yesterday or today! So, we might go right back to celebrating as early as tomorrow! 

 Todays Euro Weeklies are still not great by any means but they are a bit colder/less mild during 3 weeks of the 4 weeks starting with week 2:

12/29-1/4 yesterday

12/29-1/4 today

1/12-18 yesterday

1/12-18 today

1/5-11 was also a little colder today

**Edited for corrections needed in my captioning because I had “today” and “yesterday” reversed. Today’s are less mild as I said.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Very interesting archived forecast. Is this information publicly-accessible and, if so, do you have a link?

 I have it by luck on my phone as I happened to start saving a few in Dec of 2021 and Jan of 2022 I think because of long range hints on the CFS (of all models, which I also saved a bunch of…so kudos to the CFS then!) starting to show very long range big colder changes in late Dec and especially Jan. Since then, I happened to have saved a lot near and after the 2/16/2023 SSWE, which showed that the -NAO/-AO were initially way underdone/missed. Since then I’ve saved a bunch during the winters.

 I’m not aware of these being available to the public.

 On 12/26/21, when the PNA had been negative all month/way down at -1.8 that day and Baltimore (among others) had just had a miserably mild 68F Christmas high with very mild to continue through New Year’s, this (see image below) was the 12/26/21 GEFS two week PNA forecast, which went to 1/9/22: still down at -0.6 on 1/9/22 and no clearcut sign that 1/9/22 was going to be the start of a 38 day long +PNA as well as Jan ending up the snowiest month by far there since Jan of 2016 along with it being the coldest month since Jan of 2018:

@donsutherland1

*Edit: The main points are:
- The models can’t see out that far with notable skill and that includes forecasting the PNA/general patterns
- -ENSO -PNA Decembers since 1984 all transitioned to +PNA Jans

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

00 and 97 I think also went pretty strong +PNA I think but can’t recall if they were negative in December or not.  I want to say they were not 

-Actually, Dec of 1996, indeed, was still another -ENSO strong -PNA that transitioned to a +PNA in Jan after a 1.8+ rise.

-Dec of 1999 had a neutral PNA. So, that isn’t in this group.

*Corrected for typo…Dec of 1999