GaWx

25 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

To Quote The Critic: "It Stinks!"

How? The Euro gives nearly every active SE forum member snow. How often does that actually happen?

0Z EPS members: includes a few Gulf/SE solutions (6 of 50) for the SEmost extent like the op:

What the? Can we stop here?

Folks, are y’all sitting down? Or better yet, lying down?

 Ok, feast your eyes on the 0Z UKMET!

Kudos to Euro Weeklies for having +PNA switch week of 1/12-8 as far back as this one issued 12/24: 1st run w/notable hint of +PNA; it never looked back/kept strengthening it though it mistakenly had -NAO:

Today: strong +PNA, no -NAO

Today’s 1/26-2/2 subtly suggesting +PNA may return then:

 Otherwise, maps today mild for bulk of Feb fwiw. Hoping these will change and end up wrong!

49 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Cold and dry for the next 10 days. Awesome. 

I’m looking forward to cold dominating the next 10 or so days! That 82 F high was a bit much. The cold will be much better for outdoor activities for me.

 This 6-10 is a beaut from my perspective!

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I guess maybe you missed the part where I was only speaking in terms of ENSO, not any of the other stuff you mentioned?

Are you implying that 2026 will probably be similar to 2017 for the rest of winter in the E US?

3 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The La Nina is almost over. The subsurface wasn't even meaningfully negative in Dec, definitely won't be in Jan. 0-300m down for 100-180W by the equator was only -0.03 in Dec, v. -1.20 in Dec 2024. It's night and day different.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

The eastern zones of 3 and also 1.2 are much warmer than they have been in a while. The rapid transitions out of La Nina to El Nino tend to be stormy in the West and we've seen that in recent weeks/months. The record warmth out here is more tied to the North Pacific, it's more of a leftover from last winter than a direct driver from this winter. Essentially the setup is nearly identical in the background for the north pacific, and since we've had near neutral conditions in the tropics, not a whole lot has changed. Once we get in Feb/Mar/Apr the subsurface warming will either peak and reverse or continue and that will shake up the pattern.

 

 

OHC continues to rise rapidly:

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s pretty uncanny (at least so far) how close we’ve been following the 16-17 La Niña evolution….weak Niña, very strong -IOD in the fall, now the “under the radar” EWB and SOI spike right around the same times in January. Then the big WWB afterwards and total La Niña collapse….assuming this one (WWB) ends up being comparable to 2017. 
 

This latest EWB and SOI spike definitely did some damage though, huge SST drop in region 3.4 with the upwelling and there’s real healthy tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts 

 

 

 
Comparisons of indices Jan ‘26 to Jan ‘17

1. Jan of 2017 was also at this time in phase 6. But that’s where the similarities end as 2017’s phase 6 was much shorter (lasted <2 days) and it sped all the way around to phase 3 by late month! It may just get to 8 at about the same time. So, MJO starting off similar but ending totally different.

2. PNA similar through Jan 21st but then 2017 went back to +PNA. We’ll see whether 2026 does that.

3. Strong +AO 2017 vs strong -AO 2026. So, AO patterns are opposites.

4. 2017 had a +NAO 1/7-18, but then it turned to a moderate -NAO 1/20-6 before rising to neutral late. 2026: -NAO til today and forecasted to head to weak +NAO for a week+. So, NAOs very different.

5. 2017 had -WPO-EPO most of first 1/2 and then +WPO/+EPO 2nd half vs 2026 having some +WPO/+EPO that’s now turning to -WPO/-EPO, which should last for awhile. So, WPO and EPS very different.

 In summary, other than ENSO related stuff and PNAs being similar, the other 5 indices are far different. Good luck on getting a similar result to 2017, whatever that result is.

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Potential for phase 8 by EOM.

 Thanks for posting that.

 But well before any potential phase 8 late month, the models are near unanimous in predicting phase 6 lasting through Jan 21st. Per the image below, the current phase 6 started on Jan 5th. So, if the models verify well, this could end up as a 17 day long phase 6!

 How would a 17 day long phase 6 compare to the longest phase 6 on record (since 1974)? 

-Still not close to the 22 days in the summer of 1984 (7/28-8/18)

-But this would obliterate the longest on record fully within met. winter, which is 13 days set in 1999 (1/30-2/11) (also La Niña)

-The longest on record fully within Jan is the 11 days of 2005 (1/9-19).

-The longest on record fully within Jan during La Niña is the 10 days of 1976 (1/13-22).
 

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

 The models are unanimous in progging a 13+ day long phase 6 (1/9-21+). All that’s needed to have a record long Jan phase 6 is for it to be 12 days. This is consistent with phases 6-7 having had by far the largest # of days in Jan since 2011 (101, 104). OTOH, the # of Jan phase 8/1/2 days since 2011 has been only 42/17/26 days!

GEFS has a 2.75 amp peak but it often is too strong:

Looking ahead to Feb, phase 7/6 had 134/77 days since 2011 with 8/1/2/3 much lower at 41/30/32/35.

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

Never mind they are both standardized. For some reason the CFS forecast looks lower than the other chart. 

Figured I would also add these two to show the progression better and the overall potential impacts.

Indeed, the AAM values on your chart of recent history appear to be ~1/2 a SD higher than the CFS initializations often though sometimes they’ve been close. For example, check out the 11/28 CFS initialization of +1, which was at a late Nov. peak:

 Your chart says 11/28 was near a peak of ~+1.45, which is ~0.45 higher than the CFS init.:

 Also, CFS initialized 12/19 at ~-1.25 vs your chart then at ~-0.7, meaning yours was then ~0.55 higher than the CFS init.:

But OTOH: CFS initialized 1/3 barely <0 vs your chart then also barely <0:

 I don’t know anything about the “officialness”/accuracy of your chart. But I can say based on these comparisons that the CFS on average appears to often though not always initialize ~0.5 SDs lower than your chart’s “actuals”.

Latest CFS AAM forecast: pretty close to prior one suggesting rise to modestly + in early Feb:

The dense fog here is the worst I’ve seen anywhere in years and it’s only 9:43 PM!

 I just counted the # of days in Jans 1975-89 by MJO phase: there are stark differences vs Jans 2011-25 as was suspected:

# of days per phase Jans 1975-89 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 39 (8%)
2: 67 (14%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 57 (12%)
5: 46 (10%)
6: 51 (11%)
7: 63 (14%)
8: 75 (16%)


Compare to this that I posted yesterday:
# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 17 (only 4%)
2: 26 (only 6%)
3: 67 (14%)
4: 51 (11%)
5: 57 (12%)
6: 101 (a whopping 22%)
7: 104 (a whopping 22%)
8: 42 (9%)


So, what changed the most in Jan when comparing 1975-89 to 2011-25?

# of 8-1-2 Jan days dropped sharply
# of 6-7 Jan days rose sharply

Jan 1975-89
8-1-2: 39%
6-7: 25%

Jan 2011-25
8-1-2: 18%
6-7: 44%

So for Jans when comparing 2011-25 to 1975-89, the # of 8-1-2 days dropped way down from 181 to only 85 (drop of 96 days) while the # of 6-7 days rose sharply from 114 to 205 (rise of 91 days)! Phase 8 went from having the largest # of days of any phase Jan 1975-89 to having only 40% of the largest # of days of any phase Jan 2011-25!

 
A quite possible explanation is the PDO cycle in conjunction with the strong W Pac warm pool. So, if the mean PDO would go positive, maybe Jan MJO dist. will revert back to 1975-89. Then again, the strong warm pool may be mainly due to CC?? If so, would it be easily reversible with a PDO change? A lot of this would seemingly be hard to answer.

—————
*Edit: Check this out

Avg PDO 

Jan 1975-89: avg +5.25/15 = +0.35

# of Jans: 8+, 3 neutral, 4-

Jan 2011-25: avg -11.59/15 = -0.77

# of Jans: 3+, 1 neutral, 11-

So, avg Jan PDO dropped sharply from +0.35 in 1975-89 to -0.77 in 2011-25.

@donsutherland1@bluewave@40/70 Benchmark@snowman19

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark I’m assuming you disagree with Eric’s take that there’s going to be a big SPV strengthening then coupling with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO late winter into spring?
 

 

 

 

 

 I’m not disputing Eric, but it seems somewhat counterintuitive that the cold E US is still favored in Feb even with a +AO/+NAO. Wx history is so fascinating!

7 minutes ago, roardog said:

What did RONI peak at in 23-24? I feel like the atmosphere behaved more like a strong/borderline super Nino with a -PDO than anything weaker than that. 

Only +1.50 as per the OND peak:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it becomes that strong, the EMI will be crucial.....Modoki of that intensity and we are talking 2002-2003/1957-1958 analogs.....east-based would mean to shield your eyes and hope for a random juggernaut.

2009-2010 had much more favorable solar considerations...

 Keep in mind that should this be right, the RONI adjustment down from ONI would likely mean that RONI would still be just approaching +1 in Sept.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We'd love a nino but not a super nino--that would be a kick in the stones...oof

Don’t forget that we have a bonus of 0.35C or so to play with with the all important RONI currently being 0.35 colder. So, IF this were to reach +1.30 in  Sept, the RONI equiv. would be only about +0.95 leaving just over 1C room to spare before reaching super territory on that basis.

The new NMME has an even stronger El Niño for later this year by ~0.2C. The end of the run, Sept of 2026, peaks at ~+1.3C (moderate) and still was warming. So, it was more than likely headed to a strong. It has it centered on 115W:

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't know...I think this has just been a difficult pattern to predict. I mean if the models are struggling...so will the Mets? Lol

But they did go colder than the model guidance and they were emphatic about their forecast. They had BN in the E US for the first half of Jan and it’s going to end up solidly AN much of the area. As @donsutherland1alluded to, their business is helped by more clicks. So, from a business standpoint, it may make sense at least in the short term to go cold in winter even if the guidance doesn’t suggest that. But credibility as being objective/accurate will be at risk. Swinging for the fences on the cold often isn’t normally going to work. And they’ll probably never in winter swing for the fences to the warm side, of course. Thus, their forecast misses will almost have to be too cold more often than the other way around. Other social media based wx services are in a similar position.

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bam now on the colder side. They cant make up their mind.

They’re struggling and need to keep the clicks going.

 The comparison of the Euro Weekly temp. anom. maps of a week ago and today for Jan 12-18 is fascinating:

Dec 31st run for 1/12-18: La Niñaish sort of look

Today’s (Jan 7th) run for 1/12-18: nearly opposite with El Ninoish sort of look!

Per Eric Webb just now, the anticipation is still strong:

“This is just insane to see. 

Absolute monster westerly wind burst in the tropical West Pacific”

 Today’s GEFS and EPS MJO forecasts both have a 2+ amplitude (strong) phase 6/7 starting in week 2:

-GEFS has 2+ amp phase 6 for Jan 17-21 with a peak at ~2.6 on 1/21 (often strong GEFS forecasted MJOs verify a bit weaker in this region fwiw)

-EPS has ~2+ amp phase 6-7 (mainly 7) for Jan 16-21 with a peak at ~2.2 in phase 7 on 1/19 (sometimes EPS forecasted MJOs verify a bit stronger in this region fwiw)

- These tell me that the chance for Jan to end up with 20+ days on or inside circle is decreasing.

- The frequency of MJO amps of 2+ in DJF has increased substantially on a multi-decadal basis (climate change suspected):

# of days MJO 2+ amplitude per DJF

70s-80s: 11

90s-00s: 17.5

10s-20s: 23

 So far, 2025-6 has had 4 days of 2+ amp (Dec 1-4)

 These Jans had a 2+ amp phase 6 or 7:

-2024

-2021-18

-2016-3

-2011-8

-2006

-2004

-2002

-1997

-1993-2

-1990-89

-1986

-1979

-1976

 Note how much less common phase 6-7 periods with 2+ amp were in Jan during 1975-2001 (only 30% of the Jans) vs 2002-2025 (67%)!

——————
 Here’s another MJO stat. tidbit:

# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase

1: 17 (only 4%)

2: 26 (only 6%)

3:   67 (14%)

4:  51 (11%)

5:  57 (12%)

6:  101 (a whopping 22%)

7:  104 (a whopping 22%)

8:  42 (9%)

So, since 2011, each of Jan phase 6 and 7 days has been more than twice as common as phase 8 days and a whopping FOUR TO FIVE times as frequent as each of Jan phase 1-2 days!

@bluewave