GaWx

@TheClimateChanger I had as you know estimated that the MTD mean would rise to ~38.2 F as of 12/27. However, I then estimated as you also should know a 31F avg for 12/28-31 allowing the full month to end up at ~37.2. But after seeing the image below showing the MTD was very surprisingly to me still up at 38.13 as of 12/29, I now see no way that it will fall back to ~37.2. I had also said I saw ~no way that the full Dec would be warmer than the 37.75 of 1939. Now with this updated info, I can no longer say that as it looks like it will be a close call to 1939.

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. 

Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). 

CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast!

What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today):

That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. 

Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected)

The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued... 

 

Hey Chuck, 

 I’d say no. It’s hard for NG to bake in an extreme that’s essentially in fantasyland/during when model skill is pretty limited. So, I feel confident that it would rise substantially in advance of the very cold should it actually start to show up in late week two of the EPS and GEFS means or even in week 3 of the EW/ext GEFS in the bulk of the E US. However, even if that were to occur, there’s the possibility that it could fall a good bit more before the extreme cold shows up and prices start to rise.

 The ensemble mean HDDs continue to drop. The 18Z GEFss lost a whopping 14 HDDs vs the 12Z! But even though HDDs keep dropping, the trajectory continues to show a sharp climb late in week 2 to NN:

Folks,
 I recommend that snowman and others not look at the Euro Weeklies today. I’d instead go outside and enjoy the fantastic Canadian air! And Happy New Year! May 2026 be dominated by more Canadian air! Keep in mind that the EW are essentially the extended 0Z EPS. The 12Z EPS trended better with the western ridge and that won’t be reflected on the EW.

39 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Saw more GAwx research that I believe showed Ph 6 in Nina Januarys averaged out to -2, but with big swings in either direction. January 1977 was something like -8 to -10 while it was in ph 6. 

Excellent succinct summary! But there’s a typo as you meant Jan of 1976 as opposed to 1977. Also, Jan of 1975 phase 6 was almost as cold. By the way, I calculated the anoms based on GSP because that was near the center of BAM map’s coldest. Other areas would vary of course. I’d still much rather have moderate to weak 8-1-2 as I said for the E US as a whole.

On 12/27/2025 at 1:40 PM, GaWx said:

 I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

Bump for @TheClimateChanger

Do you have an update of Dec through the 30th? TIA

 I realize that with today still being colder than the avg of 12/1-30 by ~4 degrees per my guess, the final Dec update will be a little colder than 12/1-30.

 The model consensus is suggesting a good chance for the Jan MJO to stay inside the circle for 20+ days. Only the following Jans since 1975 were on or inside the circle for 20+ days (note that it’s been 23 years since the last one due to the MJO avg amp increasing):

1977, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2003

 Of these 8 Jans in the E US, 1977, 1981, 1982, 1994, and 2003 were cold while 1996 and 2000 were NN to slightly BN. Only 1980 was AN and it was only modestly AN. That one had its MJO the furthest right of the eight Jans mainly on or inside the circle with none in phases 7, 8, or 1. Of its 31 days, 25 were in phases 4 or 5.
 
 So, none of the 8 were anywhere near a torch.

 Here’s the cold composite for these 8 Jans with 20+ days on or inside the circle:

 Here’s the composite for the other Jans near the endpoints and in between: MJO outside circle 12+ days

28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm becoming concerned about the cold push going west near the middle of the month. The West Atlantic Ridge is starting to pop up on globals

That is a legit concern for me, too. The forecasted -EPO/+TNH cold pattern for the central US eventually looks great for cold domination prospects for the central US, much of the Midwest, and the N NE. But the biggest risk against sustainable cold is in the SE primarily and Mid-Atlantic secondarily, where the SE ridge may be too strong if the PNA in the means doesn’t go positive. This is very difficult to forecast this far out.

 Although I don’t like the warmer model developments of recent days for week 2 in the E US, my hope is still that the PNA in the means will flip for Jan averaged out to match the 100% of -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 that went to a net +PNA for Jan. My other hope is that the 90 day -PNA bias of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS means that they’re currently off.

The GEFS AO looks better for midmonth vs yesterday fwiw.

 I’m enjoying the current cold and dry snap. I had two great walks in the Canadian air the last 2 days and expect another one today. The area got down into the high 20s for the low, not far from the 25 coldest so far. Keep in mind that as of just 10 days ago, this cold snap was nonexistent on the models! So, I consider it a bonus to enjoy.

 Thanks, snowman.

 One of the favored analogs has been 2021-2. This was the GEFS PNA forecast 4 years ago today through Jan 14, 2022: it showed the PNA turning positive, which it did but the mean wasn’t positive enough for midmonth:

To compare, here’s today’s GEFS PNA forecast, which is clearly going in the right direction at the end but still isn’t then yet a +PNA. Note the wide spread of the members, however:

 Natural gas, which usually drops when the high pop. centers of the NE US and Midwest look warmer in the 2 week forecast, is down >4%.

 The forecasted -EPO/+TNH cold pattern for the central US eventually looks great for cold domination prospects for the central US, much of the Midwest, and the N NE. But the biggest risk against sustainable cold is in the SE primarily and Mid-Atlantic secondarily, where the SE ridge may be too strong if the PNA in the means doesn’t go positive. This is very difficult to forecast this far out.

 Although I don’t like the warmer model developments of recent days for week 2 in the E US, my hope is still that the PNA in the means will flip for Jan averaged out to match the 100% of -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 that went to a net +PNA for Jan. My other hope is that the 90 day -PNA bias of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS means that they’re currently off.

The GEFS AO looks better for midmonth vs yesterday fwiw:

Yesterday:

Today:

Watch out for potential major Arctic plunges week of 1/19-26: this was released on Tue 12/30.

Exclusive Weather Updates from Vaisala/X Weather & The Weather Co.

Brad Harvey, senior operational meteorologist at Vaisala, says that the forecast for the 6-to 10-day period features much-above-normal temperatures from the West to Texas. Highs are forecast to reach the 50s in Denver, 60s-70s in Dallas, and 70s in Houston. The Midwest and East are forecast to be drier than normal thanks to rounds of high pressure migrating southward from Canada. The forecast is near normal for temperatures in the Upper Midwest and below normal in the East. Risks are mixed for the Upper Midwest, where our forecast takes the middle ground between the warmer GFS and colder ECMWF solutions. Meanwhile, warmer risks in the Rockies are associated with downslope flow, while the Great Basin could be colder under high pressure. The models have lacked consistency in both the 6-to 10-day and 11-to 15-day periods. “The GFS EN projects a –PNA pattern, while ECMWF trends toward a +PNA. Neither of these solutions are given higher favorability, with our forecast featuring a round of above normal temperatures in the Eastern Half and belows emerging late in the Midwest.” For more information, go to https://www.xweather.com/weatherdesk.

Mickey Shuman, a senior meteorologist with The Weather Company, tells us that for most of next week, the Pacific pattern will reverse, helping to drive mild Pacific air into much of western and interior North America. However, a west-based -NAO block will impede the advancement of the mild air into the East. By the 11-to 15-day period, mild Pacific and maritime Atlantic air will overspread the entirety of Canada, essentially shutting down the risk of any major cold air intrusions, such that most of the CONUS moderates and ends up on the warmer side of normal, supporting a prolonged stretch of lower-than-normal GWHDDs. That being said, an emerging +PNA signal also suggests that there won’t be a major or sustainable warm-up and that some seasonably cold air attempts to expand south and east later in the period. The bigger story is the potential pattern change for the middle to end of the month, which could lead to noteworthy cold Arctic blasts over the eastern two-thirds centered on the week of the 19-26th. For more information, go to https://www.weathercompany.com/

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 This was released by BAMwx:

 

 Thoughts? I’m going to need to research this myself to feel comfy with BAMwx’s idea of the highly counterintuitive idea of a very cold E US on average during La Niña (-AAM) Jan phase 6 periods. They’re saying this probably because GEFS is forecasting phase 6 going into mid-Jan as per my earlier MJO forecast post. I can do the analysis but it will take time. I’m planning to look at actual temp anoms for a city like ATL, Chat., Nashville, or GSP that’s in the heart of the coldest (pink) for all phase 6 days during Jan since 1975. Actually anyone can do it but one needs lots of time to do this.

In the meantime, I’ll continue to root for weak to moderate 8-1-2 over 6 or even 7.

@donsutherland1@bluewave

I did the analysis of the 15 Jans with  phase 6 during La Niña (1975-2025)

Year….# phase 6 days…avg anomaly

1975…3…-8

1976…13…-9

1989…3…+8

1999…3…+2

2000…3…-4

2006…6…+3

2008…3…+8

2009…6…+1

2011…12…-7

2012…19…+1

2017…2…0

2018…3…-2

2021…8…-1

2022…4…-9

2025…2…-5

—————
91 total days that averaged ~-2 

3 MBN

3 BN

6 NN

1 AN

2 MAN

 BAMwx said that the phase 6 MJO/-AAM analogs had this at ~-6 to -7. So, I believe based on the above analysis that this is a good bit overdone and should be ~-2. Granted, it came in cool on average with the -2 anomaly, which to me is admittedly a bit counterintuitive. And 1975, 1976, 2011, and 2022 came in quite cold during their Jan phase 6 days showing it would be doable. But one can see that only 6 of the 15 (40%) Jans during phase 6 were in BAMwx’s cold vicinity.

 So, I’d still much rather it go 8-1-2.

 Any comments?

@donsutherland1@bluewave

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It’s a statistics term that doesn’t mean what the layperson thinks it does. In statistics, significance on a correlation plot doesn’t necessarily mean the relationship between two variables is strong or important. A significance of <5% means a p-value of <0.05 (o >95% confidence level), not that the correlation is strong. Two different things.

Thanks for clarifying for us. My bad for misunderstanding what they meant by “0-2.5% significance”. So, it sounds like they’re saying that the chance that the warmth in the E US is due to randomness is only 2.5% or lower. Do I have that right? That would make perfect sense and sort of jibes with @cny riderand my original thinking.

6 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Perhaps I'm reading this wrong but the chart with T composites for the different MJO phases seems to suggest there is zero significance to phase 6 regarding temperature for the eastern US.

Am I interpreting it correctly to mean it has no prognostic significance for DJF temperatures in the east?

 

Actually, I think it’s the opposite because the strongest warm anomalies are in the E US though admittedly I don’t know why it shows that as “0-2.5% significance”. That doesn’t make any sense as it should be the opposite!

23 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Cold without snow imho sucks.   I know some of you like it so I get it but just enjoy the milder conditions thru Jan 14 th.  After that, we can probably have something to track.

 I love the SE brand of cold. I’ve had more than enough mild after 7 days straight of torchy and sweaty 73-80. Thank goodness a return to a long torch isn’t in the forecast. I’m hoping for mainly BN to NN with low dewpoints (sub-45 is best) til further notice! Highs of 65 or lower other than a few low 70s scattered in and lows mainly in the 30s-40s. This is best for walking.

 This was released by BAMwx:

 Thoughts? I’m going to need to research this myself to feel comfy with BAMwx’s idea of the highly counterintuitive idea of a very cold E US on average during La Niña (-AAM) Jan phase 6 periods. They’re saying this probably because GEFS is forecasting phase 6 going into mid-Jan as per my earlier MJO forecast post. I can do the analysis but it will take time. I’m planning to look at actual temp anoms for a city like ATL, Chat., Nashville, or GSP that’s in the heart of the coldest (pink) for all phase 6 days during Jan since 1975. Actually anyone can do it but one needs lots of time to do this.

In the meantime, I’ll continue to root for weak to moderate 8-1-2 over 6 or even 7.

@donsutherland1@bluewave

 I’m calculating that the Dec NAO will come in near -1, easily the most negative Dec since 2010. This is the first moderate to strong Dec -NAO during active Dec sunspots since 2002, when sunspots were 135. I’m estimating Dec of 2025 SSN to be 120.

 Looking ahead MJOwise, I hope today’s GEFS forecast doesn’t verify as it has it going into a strengthening 6 as we approach mid Jan:

Phase 6 in Jan is one of the warm E US phases along with 4-5. Say it ain’t so, GEFS! Of course, even if it verifies, the warmth is just based on the average and it can still end up cold.

The EPS is better but not great as it heads into a weak 7, which is pretty neutral. I’d much prefer to see 8-1-2 for the best shot at a cold E US pattern:

On 12/27/2025 at 10:54 PM, GaWx said:

  I’ve been quite curious about what phases the MJO would be in during the heart of the widespread historic US warmth of late Dec, Dec 23-27. We needed to wait due to several days of reporting lag. Would any of it be in the typically chilly in the E 1/2 of the US phase 8? 

 Well, now we have the answer for the first 3 days, Dec 23-25: not surprisingly, none of those first 3 days were in phase 8. It turns out that Dec 23-4 were in very weak phase 7 while Dec 25 was in very weak phase 6, which I consider intuitive:

 

2025          12          23 -0.28945175      0.37228486               7  0.47157007      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          24 -0.12800699      0.45807526               7  0.47562456      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          25  0.16766728      0.36077648               6  0.39783412      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind

 

 Based on a combo of the above diagram and a related adjustment to the model prog consensus, I’m predicting that Dec 26th will be in very weak 4 and Dec 27th will be in either weak 3 or weak 2.

 Will we get back into phase 8 before the end of Dec? The GEFS, JMA, and CFS with my adjustments suggest likely not whereas the adjusted Euro suggests there’s a chance for at least one day of weak 8 then.

 Will we get back into phase 8 in early Jan? As of now there’s a moderate chance of mainly a weak 8, but that’s all I can say right now due to model disagreement and it being too far out for a confident prediction.

 Followup: The full torch period MJO is now in as I had to wait for the reporting lag. It turns out that the MJO during the heart of the torch (12/23-27) wasn’t in a typically cold track after all. Instead of a typically cold in Dec counterclockwise track of 8-1-2 of moderate to weak amp (including near or inside circle left side), it tracked clockwise weak 7-6-4-3, an unusual Dec track that one would not associate with cold as it kind of went in reverse and in typically not cold phases even though they were weak:

2025          12          23 -0.28945175      0.37228486               7  0.47157007      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          24 -0.12800699      0.45807526               7  0.47562456      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          25  0.16766728      0.36077648               6  0.39783412      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          26  0.17544751     -6.13679737E-02           4  0.18587054      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          27  4.42237742E-02 -0.35203809               3  0.35480496

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Yep it's a decent look but honestly last year looked better at this stage. 

One year ago today, this was the coldest Euro Weeklies map (for mid Jan): it’s always going to be hard to match something like this in the SE as a whole in the general sense. This was near the time of the first major snowstorm (that hit ATL among other places). And there was also a second very cold week around the time of the Gulf coast storm. But one doesn’t need historic periods like this to still have a great period of winter at least in more localized areas:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies came in colder in mid to late Jan:

1/12-18 a week ago:

1/12-18 today

1/19-25 today:

Today’s Euro Weeklies’ SPV at 10 mb is even weaker based on mean zonal 60N winds:

One week ago:

Today: note Jan 12th dip to only 22 vs it being way up at 47 a week ago:

33 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yep it's a decent look but honestly last year looked better at this stage. 

The historic January of 2025 looking better isn’t surprising as it had nearly wall to wall intense cold along with major winter storms in the SE and thus is always going to be hard to match in a general sense. The Euro Weeklies were much colder in the SE US for Jan at this point.

Edit: But otherwise:

12Z ensemble means update for late week 2: good news overall for E US cold and also snow lovers:

1. GEFS H5 improved somewhat vs 0Z/6Z with a slightly higher PNA though it’s still a -PNA. The best news is that it’s significantly colder with BN temps and it’s snowier in much of the region.

2. EPS is very similar to the 0Z, which makes that good news because it’s chilly along with a nice +PNA. No caving whatsoever to the ugly 0Z/6Z GEFS.

12Z ensemble means update for late week 2: good news overall for E US cold and also snow lovers:

1. GEFS H5 improved somewhat vs 0Z/6Z with a slightly higher PNA though it’s still a -PNA. The best news is that it’s significantly colder with BN temps and it’s snowier in much of the region.

2. EPS is very similar to the 0Z, which makes that good news. No caving whatsoever to the ugly 0Z/6Z GEFS.

10 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Well that is a serious risk once you have a big shake up in the Pacific. There needed to be a shakeup because the omega ridge over Central US couldn't last forever, but the storminess that was required to shake up that ridge has the risk to continue to crash into west coast. A trough over the west naturally leads to heights rising in the east, as seen in the 0z Gfs ensembles. The storminess that was needed to push that central US ridge out can be too much of a good thing, as indicated by the 0z GFS ensembles. I would give more credence to that scenario playing out 

Thanks for your reply. I agree it is a risk, unfortunately. But my supported hopes (GEFS 2nd week on avg has been awful and much too warm) are that today’s 0Z EPS’ moderate +PNA, which starts Jan 7th, will prevail:

 Today’s 12Z ens runs will be extra interesting due to this major disagreement in week 2!