GaWx

 Link to Invest 90L thread:

 Woodstock, GA, (25 miles N of ATL) had 3 widely spaced thunderstorms yesterday!

 It looks like my home area in SAV had several rounds of significant rainfall the last 72 hours with the heaviest being ~1.1” for the 24 hours ending at 7AM today using Cocorahs as a guideline. For the last 72 hours, I roughly estimate 1.4” fell at my location, which is also near my MTD.

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Flash flooding in the south as odds increase…

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the 
trough remains inland.  However, the system could re-emerge over the 
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and 
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the 
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into 
Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern 
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should 
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days 
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and 
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible 
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm 
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in products issued by your 
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
  

 I’ll consider this a win for Bastardi if it actually becomes a TC. He predicted back in April a Gulf TC due to MJO phase 8 being bullish for Gulf TCs in June. This could provide major drought relief for a good portion of the SE!

 This is now Invest 90L:

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902026.dat

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Here are CPC numbers for all 4 Enso areas for 6/10/15 & 6/10/26:

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3ⁿ

If you divide Enso 1.2 anomaly into the other 3 areas' anomalies for both years, you get respectively  60%, 45% and 45% in 2015 and 59.25%, 55.55% and 48.15% this year. Comparing the 2 years, Enso 3 is nearly identical for both years and 3.4 and 4 are a hair warmer this year than 2015.

Obviously, there may be other ways to figure it, but I'd have to say that they are very similar with a slight edge to 2015 as being more east based under this method.

P.s. @GaWx will surely check my math! Lol

 Thanks, Mitch. Indeed, “E based” can be defined in numerous ways as it’s not black and white, of course.

 Here are the relative anomalies for the strongest of years in 3.4 as of the closest week centered on June 10th back to 1982:

                            1+2         3         3.4         4

09JUN1982        -0.2        0.8        1.0       1.1 

11JUN1997         3.0        1.3        0.8        0.2

12JUN2002        -0.3        0.6        0.8        0.7

10JUN2015         1.8        0.8        0.6        0.7

10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7

 Just looking at this period rather than model progs for fall/winter, here are my rankings of most to least E based:

1997, 2026, 2015, 2002, 1982 though 2026 is only slightly ahead of 2015

 The latest OISST 3.4 1991-2020 anom of +1.607, which is for June 14th, is the warmest for this Nino to date and is ~0.075C warmer than that for June 13th making it the largest warming for any day since June 5th:

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx  Is the current MEI rise from March through May actually the biggest rise on record for that index like I’m reading on twitter? I only have the data through 1979 right now

I see only 1979+ in the table. Based on it, the 2026 rise from MA to AM of 0.9C (-0.6 to +0.3) is the biggest rise for MA to AM since at least 1979. The previous biggest was the 0.7C of 2015:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

On 6/13/2026 at 12:38 PM, GaWx said:

 Despite being steady last 7 days, I predict that 3.4 will warm by 0.3 in Mon’s update because of how the weeks compare.

Nino 3.4 officially warmed by 0.2 in today’s update from +0.7 to +0.9:

                               1+2        3         3.4      4 

06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Area on 6/13….8.66 million sq km

Heres how other years faired on the same date (I.e, 2012 had 420k less area than this year on the same date)

 

2012: -420k

2025: -130k

2019: -60k

2016: -50k

2007: +150k

2020: +190k

2011: +230k

2010: +240k

2023: +250k

2022: +280k

2021: +300k

2017: +310k

 

Still a lot of time left in the critical month of June. We’re lagging 2012 decently but it’s definitely possible to catch up. On the flip side, if we continue to lose ground to 2012 over the next couple weeks, then we can rule out a new record this year. Most of the cake gets baked in May and June in the arctic sea ice workd

 June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958!

This is pretty surreal in our warming world:

2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C!

2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C:

1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C:

1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C:

It was pouring here in Woodstock in Cherokee County N of ATL just a few minutes ago with a passing shower.

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There is some overlap, but ENSO and the PDO effect different areas in the Pacific - ENSO is further east and PDO is further west. 

Chuck and others, check this out:

June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958!

This is pretty surreal in our warming world:

2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C!

2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C

1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C

1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C

7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Much less hot today we haven’t broken 94 yet. Mostly overcast and not as humid

RDU high a “much cooler” 96 today vs 103 yesterday. 

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

 Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??:

7/25: ~-0.6

8/25: ~0

9/25: ~0

10/25: ~-0.3

11/25: ~0

12/25: ~+0.35

1/26: ~0

2/26:~-0.5

3/26: ~-0.6

4/26: ~-0.6

5/26: ~-0.7

 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It was last year at this time when the PDO took its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

Yes, ncep ~-0.75 to -1 vs WCS

2PM vs 24 hrs ago: RDU 7 cooler, more clouds, and NW vs SW winds

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

Does it look like the extreme -SOI will continue? It'll be interesting to see how low the 30 day average will go?

 Models are suggesting -SOI will lessen. There’s chance -SOI will end 6/16. If so, could be 6 days of +SOI before goes back -.

 Guessing per models

6/14: -15 to -20

6/15: -6 to -13

6/16: +5 to -6

6/17: +8 to -5

6/18: +16 to +1

6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)

6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2

 Despite being steady last 7 days, I predict that 3.4 will warm by 0.3 in Mon’s update because of how the weeks compare.

Good news vs yesterday though: RDU 6 cooler and N vs W winds vs 24 hrs ago. For first time in days, RDU not hottest in SE. Ft Bragg is 4 hotter than RDU, for example.

 Today’s -29 is the 33rd straight day with a sub -5 SOI. Tomorrow will make 34. That’s pretty historic because that will make it the 3rd longest sub -5 streak on record back to 1991! The only two longer ones were in 1997-8 and they were extremely long: 51 and 42 days, respectively.

 The beauty of the SOI is that it doesn’t appear to be strongly affected by CC. Thus it doesn’t need a RONI-like adjustment to remain a good indicator of ENSO strength.

RDU’s high was an absolutely blazing 103!! Thank you, drought. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Just to clarify to insure appropriate context:

-There’s no doubt that currently Nino 3.4 is very warm for so early in the year. But keep in mind that Eliot’s chart showing the current warmth is from a combination of GW and El Nino. On that basis, it’s clear that Nino 3.4 is by a good margin the warmest on record.

-But the best way to compare to past years as far as just El Niño component, itself, is to look at the relative anomalies for the same point in the year. Currently, relative 3.4 is ~+1.0. I’ll now compare to other weeklies, which go back to 1982:

09JUN1982      1.0

11JUN1997        0.8

10JUN2015        0.6

14JUN2023       0.4

 So, going back to 1982, 2026 is currently near the warmest on record about tied with 1982, which is itself obviously quite notable.

 To go back further, I need to look at relative monthlies. So, these won’t give as precise a comparison, but they’re still worth mentioning. Currently, the CFS is projecting June of 2026 to be ~+0.95. I’ll now compare to some past June relatives:

1957   6   1.13

1965   6   1.09 

1972   6   0.98

 So, 2026 is projected for June, alone, to be slightly cooler than 1957/1965 and ~same as 1972.

 So, folks need to be careful to not let others deceive you. The current El Niño strength is by no means out on its own and is instead in the general vicinity of 1982, 1972, 1965, and 1957 for the warmest since 1950.

 Going back further is less reliable for comparison purposes. But per Eric Webb’s MJJ 3.4 anomalies, one could argue that 1877, 1902, 1905, and 1941 could have easily been similar, if not warmer than 2026 in mid June. There’s a good chance that 1877 was a bit warmer and some chance that 1905 was slightly warmer in mid June.

13 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Depending on the eventual Cu field I think RDU is on track for around 103 today.  95F as of the 11am observation. 

Indeed! That 11AM 95 at RDU is along with Rocky Mount, NC, the hottest of ALL major reporting stations in the SE. 

 24 hours ago, RDU was “only” 90 and Rocky Mt was 91.

53 minutes ago, EarlGrey said:

Why does RDU always seem hotter than the other areas? Is it something to do with the drought?

1. The RDU area has some of the driest soils in the SE. So, that’s affecting the current/recent temps for the entire RDU area, not just RDU, itself.

2. The RDU sensor, itself, over the years (not drought related)  has been hotter than surrounding major stations supposedly due to the configuration of the station as has been discussed here and at other places.

The latest CFSv2 release has actually cooled ~0.15 to 0.20 vs that from the start of June for the periods starting with JJA:

June 1st release: relative peak ~+3.0 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.25 DJF

Today’s release: relative peak ~+2.8 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.1 DJF

There were nasty steamy highs of 92 at ATL and 94 at SAV.

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Had a second higher peak of 100.6 so I guess technically 101. Yuck 

RDU reached 101 for a new record!