GaWx
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Posts posted by GaWx
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20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:
let's see that map with the heat wave included
I don’t have it going later than 3/17. I got that 3/1-17 from another source as I didn’t produce the map. Of course, the full March will be warmer. Example (looking at Phoenix): 3/1-17 was +9 but 3/1-31 should be ~+12. I know where to find the lower 48 map after the month is over.
Where can one get the up to date month to date map?
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On 3/18/2026 at 9:44 AM, GaWx said:
Today’s MJO forecasts still are all in phases 7 and 8, the coldest in Baltimore (as rep. city) in March on average following La Niña winters:
Followup: Look how far-off the quoted 3/18 MJO progs are verifying! They had it in phase 7 3/24-29 headed to phase 8 vs the reality of them then already being in phase 8 headed toward phase 1:
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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:
Using a chart inspired by Jeff Berardelli's return-time charts, here's how Fairbanks would look for March 2026:
And December-March (cases prior to 1911-12 were excluded due to the number of missing days during the 1905-06 through 1910-11 period):
This record cold March at Fairbanks is even more amazing when you consider how much above normal it was in the Arctic (80+N) in March:
You can see evidence of this stark contrast of cold anomalies to the warm anomalies to the north in the Arctic as well as to the south in the lower 48 on this for March 1-17:
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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
I’m not discounting this event is highly influenced by climate change, but in regards to Pheonix at least some of the temp increase is related to the UHI. I don’t see any reference to that in the data provided. Pheonix pre 1970s isn’t comparable to today.
.We’ve talked about UHI being a nontrivial portion of Phoenix’s warming. I’ve brought it up, myself.
But, note as you may already realize that the UHI affects the warming of lows more than the warming of highs (assuming I’m not mistaken).
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Hey @Stormchaserchuck1any thoughts about this?
Fairbanks is progged to have its coldest DJFM on record with it ~-13.1F!
The current coldest DJFM:
1965-6: -12.9F El Niño
1970-1: -11.6F La Niña
1933-4: -11.1F La Niña
1917-8: -10.6F La Niña
By a margin of 2F, they’re progged to have their coldest March on record at ~-8.6F!
Link to data that allowed me to calculate this out: -
19 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:
Interesting. He says another warm summer but then explicitly predicts the 2nd coldest summer since 2019, and only slightly warmer than 2023. Especially if the heat is out west as he suggests, I think most people will consider that to be one of the coldest summers in recent memory.
They forecast based on population weighted because their forecasts are for the purpose of forecasting AC usage as opposed to what you look at, which isn’t pop weighted. Does that relate to your post?
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On 3/24/2026 at 11:21 AM, GaWx said:
In addition to Fairbanks, cities such as Anchorage and Yellowknife, NW Territories as well as the area in between and surrounding have a chance to have their all time record coldest Marches. That’s ~2,000 miles long and ~400 miles wide area or ~800K square miles, which is ~18% of the combined square miles in Canada and Alaska or ~25% of the size of the lower 48!
Does anyone have a link to monthly records for Canadian cities and more specifically Yellowknife? Anyone have a link to maps showing historic temperature anomalies by month for Canada like we have for the US?
Yellowknife in March of 2026:
Mean temp March 1-23: -26C
Normal for entire month: -16C
March 2026 so far:https://www.predictwind.com/weather/canada/northwest-territories/yellowknife/march
Normals in C:
Followup:
Fairbanks is progged to have its coldest DJFM on record with it ~-13.1F!
The current coldest DJFM:
1965-6: -12.9F El Niño
1970-1: -11.6F La Niña
1933-4: -11.1F La Niña
1917-8: -10.6F La Niña
By a margin of 2F, they’re progged to have their coldest March on record at ~-8.6F!This feat is extra amazing because the Arctic has warmed the most due to GW!
Link to data that allowed me to calculate this out:-
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After yesterday’s KSAV record tying high of 89, today’s was only 69, which was just after midnight. It stayed in the 60s through the afternoon along with some clouds much of the day, breezy NE winds, and dewpoints mainly upper 30s to 40 making for a pleasant walk. It’s now down to 56. Tonight’s low is forecasted to be in the upper 40s.
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1. How about this? Phoenix had its coolest high in 11 days by a good margin (96) and yet it was still another record high, the 14th of this month!
2. Believe it or not, the next two days’ record highs of 97 are forecasted to be close to being hit. So, two more daily record highs are possible!3. The morning low was 75. IF it doesn’t cool down to 74 by midnight local time, it would be not only a new record high low for today, it would become the new monthly record high low and the earliest 75 low by far with the current earliest being way out on April 19th! The current record for the day and month is 74, set way back in 1986.
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57 minutes ago, mitchnick said:
Wasn't March, 2025 a +NAO? Closer to +1 I believe.
+0.3. This month will likely be ~10 times as high!
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This summer forecast is from pro-met Travis Hartman of Vaisala Xweather. I received this yesterday free of charge as I’m not a paying client.
“What kind of summer are we walking into?
For 2026, the early answer is: another warmer-than-normal season in the US and Europe with important regional caveats.
Ocean signals point to warmth
A major driver of the expected heat is the ocean. Global sea surface temperatures remain historically warm, and the North Atlantic is firmly in its positive multidecadal phase, also known as warmer-than-average Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). In plain terms, the Atlantic has been running hot for decades, and warm oceans amplify heat on land. A warmer Atlantic tends to pump up the Bermuda High, helping lock in warmer conditions across the Eastern US.
Enter El Niño—but with nuance
Models suggest that El Niño will develop through the summer. Historically, El Niño can take some of the edge off the heat in the Midwest and East by shifting the jet stream. But whether that cooling influence is realized depends on an unlikely character: West Pacific typhoons. Their recurving paths can tug on the jet stream in ways that promote cooler conditions across the US. Fewer typhoons, on the other hand, leave the hotter background state unchallenged. And recent decades have seen a trend toward fewer summer typhoons overall.
So, what does this mean for 2026?
The forecast calls for summer 2026 to rank as the 11th-hottest since 1950, with the strongest confidence in significant heat across the West and South. The Midwest and East are the wild cards—torn between ocean-driven warmth and the possibility (but not the guarantee) of El Niño-related moderation.”-
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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
I'm pretty sure we aren't getting a super El Nino.
Thanks, Ray. We all know that there’s lots of uncertainty this far out. It’s his bombastic style of Tweeting as if there’s little uncertainty about a super Nino that I’m noting just as he did in the first half of Jan for a supposed near record strong WWB that never occurred. @snowman19was the first to point his bust out. By the way Eric never acknowledged his big bust on Twitter.
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How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump-started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? He loves to be bombastic as this is just one example. His being repeatedly bombastic doesn’t make it the near certainty he wants us to think it is. Snowman, Don, and myself commented about this being a big bust in the 25-26 thread:
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On 1/17/2026 at 6:19 PM, snowman19 said:On 1/17/2026 at 8:24 PM, snowman19 said:
^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB strength is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really….
On 1/17/2026 at 8:33 PM, donsutherland1 said:Yes. I agree. We'll see if they ever acknowledge it.
How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in late Jan that never occurred?-
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Coldest ever recorded in March anywhere on the globe occurred yesterday in Vostok, Antarctica with -76.4C or -105.5F!-
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It looks like that finally Phoenix didn’t 100. It was “only” 99 today.
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41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:
This was a fail. That's why long range forecasts shouldn't be taken seriously.
Anthony,
I wouldn’t say that because the DJF AO was the most negative since 2020-1 with ~-1 averaged out.
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8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
Phoenix: March 1-24, 2026 vs. its historical record.
Hey Don,
Phoenix had a high of 100 today, the 8th day in a row of 100+! Before 2026, there had been only one March day of 100+ and that was right at 100 on March 26th! Holy cow!
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Despite what JB is thinking (cold mid to late April), the EWs still don’t show anything of the sort.
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Per JB, the reason the 2023-4 El Niño was so mild in much of the U.S. is that there weren’t the typical cold SST anomalies around Australia that often exist during El Niño as it instead was warm there. He’s expecting colder anomalies around Australia this time.
Remember how the model consensus had at H5 the beautiful E US and Aleutian troughs?
Opinions?
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JB in recent days finally gave up on a cold E US overall 3/15-4/15. So, he’s admitting defeat regarding his forecast for an overall chilly March in the E US. He got the first week of this period right, regardless, which included a cold St. Patrick’s Day. But he’s given up on an overall cold Holy Week/Easter.
However, he’s now saying, “I think there’s going to be a lot of cold air develop in April across the United States.” He’s basing this partially on the prospect of MJO in phases 2-3, which he said tend to be cold in April. (I haven’t done my own research on that.) He’s also basing it on the prospects for a -NAO and -EPO as well as a “crash” of the SOI after the TCs are done. So, he’s expecting “quite the trough” mid to late April in the E US.
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39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:
Here's Yellowknife's coldest March:
That translates into a monthly mean temperature of -17.6°F.
Thanks, Don! This tells me that Yellowknife won’t be as cold this month as it was in March of 1964.
Unlike 2026, that month was post El Nino, opposite of 2026. That month was also quite cold further N, N of 80N (<-30C):
Compare that to the current March so far, which is ~-20C or >10C warmer!!
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In addition to Fairbanks, cities such as Anchorage and Yellowknife, NW Territories as well as the area in between and surrounding have a chance to have their all time record coldest Marches. That’s ~2,000 miles long and ~400 miles wide area or ~800K square miles, which is ~18% of the combined square miles in Canada and Alaska or ~25% of the size of the lower 48!
Does anyone have a link to monthly records for Canadian cities and more specifically Yellowknife? Anyone have a link to maps showing historic temperature anomalies by month for Canada like we have for the US?
Yellowknife in March of 2026:
Mean temp March 1-23: -26C
Normal for entire month: -16C
March 2026 so far:https://www.predictwind.com/weather/canada/northwest-territories/yellowknife/march
Normals in C:
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9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:
I believe that's the ranking, not the number of days.
Thanks, Don. Now it makes sense if the words “ranking of” are added before # of days of 80+.
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2026-2027 El Nino
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
Impressive activity ITT so early with already page 12 while still in March! How does this compare to when prior ENSO titled annual threads reached page 12? All of these started in Feb:
2025-6: well into April
2024-5: May
2023-4: April
2022-3: can’t find
2021-2: September
So, 2026-7 is the most active of these so early thanks in part to the anticipated amazingly strong WWB, which better happen this time or else…