GaWx

On 3/1/2026 at 10:04 AM, GaWx said:

 The NOAA Feb NAO will likely come in between +0.35 and +0.60. That would easily be high enough to give us still another winter without low sunspots/not near a solar minimum without a sub -0.25 NAO as I’m projecting -0.13 to -0.20, which I’d classify as neutral. My def. of neutral is between -0.25 and +0.25.
 

 It was headed to sub -0.25 as it was ~-0.45 winter to date as of Feb 14th, but the strong +NAO of the 2nd half of Feb raised the average. So although this was the closest call to finally stopping the non-negative NAO non-low sunspot combo streak, it appears we’ll still be able to say that the only -NAO winters since 1980 (only 6 of them) have been during sub 35 sunspot averaged winters.

 Feb NAO actually came in at +0.68, which is a tad more positive than my likely range of +0.35 to +0.60. So, that means DJF came in at -0.11, which is within the neutral territory of -0.25 to +0.25. Thus, there still has yet to be a sub -0.25 DJF NAO with 35+ DJF averaged sunspots since 1980 meaning the long streak lives on.

Monthly NAO back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

SIDC monthly sunspots:

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

So your analog is showing a huge aleutian low with a ridge over the rockies (again). How does it look over the polar domain though? If we get a -WPO/-EPO or -NAO along with that aleutian low, we just might avoid a wall to wall torch. If we get a well-timed STJ wave with cold air lurking nearby, we could score and big.

 Even if RONI ends up peaking +1.5+, the DC area could still have a BN averaged winter based on the 2009-10, 1965-6, and 1957-8 analogs. What did these 3 analogs have in common? -NAO and -AO, both of which were lacking in nearly all of the other +1.5+ ENSO winters. It wasn’t the Pacific that made the difference as they almost always had +PNA and no -EPO/-WPO for all +1.5+ ENSO.

 So, a -NAO/-AO would appear to be the deciders. The major challenge though for getting a -NAO is going to be sunspots almost for sure still not getting down to low (say, sub 35/month). There hasn’t been even one -NAO winter since 1980 with a >35 sunspot avg! So, the odds would be heavily against a cold DC area winter should ENSO get to +1.5+. In that case, the best hope would be for a NN instead of mild DC winter. Your better hope for a cold winter would as you’d suspect be for a sub +1.5 RONI peak this fall/winter.

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 Wow, these last 2 days the GEFS has succumbed to much closer to the EPS of lower amp and faster going back to late Feb and is now actually at a little weaker amp than the EPS. For example, here were the 2/25 runs:

2/25 EPS: was still a bit faster than last 2 days of GEFS runs but not by nearly as much compared to earlier GEFS, the 2/25 run of which is just below this image

2/25 GEFS: like most of its recent runs prior to yesterday was much slower and stronger than last 2 GEFS runs!

 So, the EPS (JMA has been too weak) is easily going to win this battle of EPS vs GEFS.

DJF:

ONI -0.39

RONI -0.90

 So, RONI minus ONI has dropped back down to -0.51.

 Most non-BoM model projections are ONI rather than RONI. Thus, in order to estimate RONI, one obviously needs to subtract ~0.5 from the model progs.

The Feb QBO at 30 mb came in about as expected, -23.13. So, here’s this winter’s QBO:

Dec -26.92
Jan -25.51
Feb -23.13 

 Well with near certainty it will be west/+ next winter and the west period could easily start as early as summer.

Euro Weeklies slightly less cold 3/16-22 than yesterday. That’s the only full chillyish week just like on yesterday’s run. So, no this isn’t in any way resembling a long period of cold for the E US although I’ll take whatever reprieve from the warmth that I can get!

Upcoming -WPO punge, which wasn’t even on the models anywhere near to this extent just a few days ago, is progged to be the lowest in March since March of 2017, when there were hard freezes all the way down to N FL and snow in the Carolinas:

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

In my experience UHI is a red herring. Often raised; but, never documented with hard evidence. UHI is a local effect while climate change is global. There are thousands of stations in the US. Easy to determine if most of the warming is from UHI or not.There is UHI of course, but it doesn't have much impact at most stations. The urbanization occurred a long time ago or doesn't occur near the station.  Lander appears to be one of those cases.

The Lander airport weather station is well outside of the town's footprint. In a dry area like Lander irrigation or grass watering could have an effect. The photo shows greening from watering outside the built-up area. There could easily be a negative or small UHI impact there. Lander's population rose rapidly before 1970 but hasn't changed much since 1970; with ups and downs, and a small decline since 2010. Lander Airport temperatures have risen slightly since 1940, with most of the rise after population stabilized in 1970. There doesn't appear to be much correlation between temperature at the airport and local population, with flat or declining temperatures during the most rapid population rise in the 1950s and 60s.  Note that the coolest year 2017 is impacted by missing data. Other regional stations weren't cool that year.  Removing 2017 would increase recent warming somewhat.

Bottom-line there isn't much evidence for a UHI warming impact in recent decades. Its possible that grass watering is counteracting other population effects; but, there isn't enough information to make a strong case.

 

 

 Yeah, Charlie, it looks like also no UHI at those 4 GA locations that were just noted. OTOH, Phoenix (as a great example) has had a significant UHI as we’ve discussed to pile on top of CC’s effects there. So, it’s not always a red herring and it shouldn’t be ignored where it has had a lot of impact. Otherwise, it looks to others like it is purposely being hidden to exaggerate the effects of GW even if that’s not the case. I’m a disclose everything kind of person so that it doesn’t look like there’s something being hidden. That’s why I suggested Blairsville, GA, as a great choice for no UHI to cloud up the analysis. It’s also why I’m glad to see those 4 GA locations being rural.

34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With the extreme cold remaining in Canada and extreme warmth invading most of the US, it seems like we have a chance of a significant severe weather season simply due to the mixing of extremes. EURO and GFS already showing a potent system in about a week 

Yes, indeed. This severe threat will then likely be followed by a potent cold shot as we approach the Ides, which would more than likely be the last hard freeze threat for much of the SE (especially S of NC). So, a highly volatile period to say the least is in the cards per model consensus! Not boring for sure.

 The WPO is currently being forecasted to dip to its lowest in March since 2017! That lead to Carolina snow (flurries even to ATL) and hard freezes down to N FL!

WPO forecasted plunge next week:

11 hours ago, yotaman said:

Looks like we won't see a cool down until almost mid month. 

Beware the Ides of March! The models are unanimous on the WPO plunging next week!

15 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Yes unlike many of the others Georgia appears to have done a good job picking truly remote sites.  Ideally you'd like to see all the sites be like that, since it's usually an average of all sites that's shown (e.g. in the X post).

I haven't looked for it, but was just noticing that a lot of the references in this thread to records / high trends are in areas that may be subject to UHI effect.   Would be nice to see some for remote sites instead, since IMO that's much more meaningful.

Do you or does anyone else know how much these 4 GA locations warmed? I’d really like to know due to their supposed lack of UHI effect.

@TheClimateChanger

@donsutherland1

@chubbs

21 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

Here are the Georgia sites:

 

 

1) Cumberland is certainly rural: https://www.nps.gov/cuis/planyourvisit/staffordbeach.htm

2)-3) Ichauway appears quite rural, too:

https://www.jonesctr.org/about-us/

4) Colham Ferry appears to be a burb of Watkinsville, a town with only ~3K:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watkinsville,_Georgia#:~:text=Watkinsville is the largest city,County%2C Georgia Metropolitan Statistical Area.

 ————

 What do you think of these 4 as far as not having UHI to worry about?

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Using NYC as an example and assuming the departures below normal being shown are correct for 3/16-3/22, what would the actual temps (highs) in degrees F be when compared to normal high temperatures in that time frame (3/16-3/22)? Just a ballpark if that verified?

~4 BN with normal based on 2006-25. Nothing drastic but the change from runs of just a few days back is what’s most notable. Also, will this getting colder trend continue?

55 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Hmmm - well - looking at their locations https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/crn/  - that's not really what I'm talking about.   It looks like just about all of those sites are actually suburban sites, or at least "close to city" rural sites.     For example the one in central NC is in Duke Forest - but that's practically surrounded by Durham, which is a fast-growing urban area.   The one in southern LA is at Cade Farm which is rural-ish, but is only 3 miles from the edge of Lafayette.   The one in western VA is only 1 mile from I-64 and Charlottesville, Etc.

What I'm talking about would be truly rural sites - ones where there isn't a significant city within about 50-100 miles or so.    I see very few if any sites of those that fit that bill.

 

 

Blairsville, GA

More on how much colder Mar 16-22 has gotten in just a few runs with a look at massive H5 change:

Just 5 days ago (2/27 run) for Mar 16-22:

Today’s for Mar 16-22: beware Ides of Mar!

On 2/26/2026 at 11:00 PM, GaWx said:

That’s news to me, Anthony, even up your way:

Today’s Euro Weeklies are mild, not cold, at midmonth:

Mar 9-15: way above normal NYC

 

Mar 16-22: AN NYC

By golly, @MJO812may end up right for midmonth as the EW for Mar 16-22 has turned much colder (per my post 2 above this) than what it had on the day of this reply to him, Feb 26th (see quoted 2nd image)!

E. Wkls even colder for 3/16-22 (beware Ides of Mar)

Yesterday’s:

Today’s:

Just 3 runs ago 3/16-22 was mild:

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro gets to 8, no surprise its ensembles are a lot colder LR vs GFS

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup GEFS is weaker in 8 therefore not AS cold but definitely below normal.

Reminder: phase 7 has averaged even colder than 8 in March following Niña winters as phase 8 has averaged 2nd coldest. Another reminder: as always these are merely averages of a wide array of actuals for each phase. (I use Baltimore as a rep. city to calculate these since it’s in the middle of the E coastal U.S.)

March Niña by phase (whether inside or outside COD):

1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo)

2: -0.1

3: +1.8

4: +0.3

5: +2.1 (2nd warmest)

6: +2.6 (warmest)

7: -1.7 (coldest)

8: -0.7 (2nd coldest)

AVG: +0.7

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Nobody and no model can accurately predict the strength of Niños or Niñas  the first week of March for the following winter. Anything to try to be the first and for clicks.

1. I agree that neither Eric nor anyone can possibly know at this very early stage how strong El Niño will be. It’s not that predictable and some models like the Euro have had a warm bias even all the way through summer progs. It could very well end up strong or even super-strong, but it could also end up weaker just because we and models don’t know.

2. I feel like RONI would be a more telling index to predict than ONI. RONI has recently been ~0.4C cooler. Eric may not be explicitly taking that into account. When all is said and done, there’s <100% chance (although not a whole bunch less as of now) we’ll actually have El Niño per RONI. It would be hilarious if we don’t considering this thread’s name has El Niño in it. 

3. There have been some strong to super ones that were cool to cold in most of the E US lower Mid-Atlantic southward: 2009-10, 1965-6, and 1957-8. And 1911-2 was cold everywhere despite peaking at +1.4. So, even if it’s strong, don’t expect a mild winter like 2015-6 in the SE and possibly not mild also in the Mid-Atlantic. And then consider that even up at Boston that although they’ve yet on record to have a cold strong+ Nino, it could end up NN as per 1896-7, 1902-3, 1925-6, 1930-1, 1940-1, 1957-8, 1965-6, and 2009-10. That’s almost half of the 18 strong+ Ninos back to 1877-8. And 1972-3 and 1991-2 were only slightly AN vs their respective climo in Boston. A torch covering the entire E US has occurred only once, 2015-6, as 2023-4 was NN in much of the SE.

 I’ll go only B+ because of the two long torches, the weeklong holiday centered one and the late Feb one that included ridiculously warm highs of 85 and 86.
 
 Otherwise, the consistently cold period of Jan 12th-Feb 9th was one of the most pleasurable winter periods ever experienced as a wx hobbyist. Not only was it cold, but there were also 3 weekends in a row of fascinating and unique SE winter storms to generate very enjoyable forecast discussions for full week periods in advance of each. These discussions are always made more interesting when FL is threatened like they were twice.

 As a big bonus, my area got 3/4” of snow. That’s 4 times the average snowfall in this area and at the 90th percentile of the area’s winter snowfall. Also, that makes two straight winters with measurable snow for the first time since 1988-9 and 1989-90.
 

 And as an additional bonus, KSAV tied for its coldest since 2012 with 19 on Feb 1.

Today’s EW have a notably colder signal weeks 3-4 in E US vs yesterday and other recent runs. Maybe these are related to the March 4 SSWE?
 

EW: wk 3 (3/16-22) run 3 days ago:

Today’s wk 3: colder E US

Yesterday’s week 4 (3/23-29):

Today’s week 4: colder E US

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event. Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now.
 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2028468392550924638?

The winter of 2025-6 had only 18 of its 90 days with a WPO >0. That’s the lowest # of days since the very cold winter of 1962-3, which had only 11 (lowest number of any since 1948-9). 1956-7 had only 16. So, 2025-6 had the 3rd lowest. I think 1967-8 is in 4th with 21 of its 91 days >0:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

 

Thanks, Charlie. Don’t forget to consider a “relative” RONIlike adjustment downward. That could be ~-0.3C.

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, I  screwed up putting it inbthus thread. I'll delete my post here and repost it. Then your post will make better sense.

Hey Mitch, thanks for doing that. You could go ahead and delete this post if you’d like.