GaWx

I forgot to add 2023-4 MEI bimonthlies, which peaked at only +1.1 in ND:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

@LibertyBell

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

23-24 was a super el nino? I thought our last one was in 15-16?

-The 23-24 season ONI trimonthlies maxed at +1.95 in NDJ:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

-The 23-24 season RONI trimonthlies maxed at +1.50 in OND:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

8 hours ago, George BM said:

Lol

 Based on this graph, June WCS PDO calculates to be ~-1.8. That likely puts the June NOAA PDO, the one that the table refers to, way down in the -2.5 to -2.9 range, which is sharply down from the -1.71 of May. The current daily NOAA equivalent is likely down to the upper -3 range!
 
 The lowest daily WCS I’ve seen since starting to track this a couple of years ago is the -3.04 of 5/31/24. The 6/30/25 -3.00 is very close:

 Please post your July 2025 observations as well as other current or recent conditions at any location.

 Total June rainfall here was at a near normal 6.85”, with 6.8” of that falling June 1-18th. So, the last 12 days have been very dry. The first half of June had a wet 5.35”.

Per JB this morning for the N Hem this June:

“In the Northern Hemisphere, we have had the average number of named storms. But now look at the ACE statistic. We are less than 1/3. Never have we had an average ACE of only 2/storm in June The average in June is 6.5. It's boggling what is going on in the WPAC, where we are at 10% of average with over 10% of their ace done.”

—————-

and for the Atlantic basin specifically, he said this:

“The Atlantic naming were a complete joke. Isla Lobos where the so called center of Barry crossed had a half inch of rain and a gust to 22. Tampico had gusts to 31 and over 2 inches of rain and the center crossed close to them Andrea was a stratocu swirl But in a way I am glad they got named. the .6 between the 2 of them have established the all time record for weakest back to back storms at only .3 per storm”

 I guess 2025 may be the year of the ham sandwich! Technically though this may be more like a Rueben due to it being a threat to land.

 Regardless, congrats@BarryStantonGBP, for having a storm named after you!

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, I'm gonna ask an obvious question here: Do you personally prefer cold/snowy weather or warm weather?

@snowman19can’t stand cold/snowy weenie posts. He’s made it clear that that’s the main reason he posts like he does. What kind of winter he actually prefers may be irrelevant.

 I’m not a fan of weenie posts of ANY kind. Thus I try my best to avoid posting like that. It’s not easy though due to human nature.

3 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

In your dreams 

Not a dream. It would likely put a relative lid on instability in MDR if it’s warmer to the N keeping it less active there than otherwise would be. We’ll see if temp pattern persists and how active MDR ends up.

1 hour ago, CP_WinterStorm said:

Where does this chart come from? I'd like to be able to monitor this myself but can't seem to find it on my own.

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/
 

 Click on 2nd thumbnail from top.

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just started a thread for 91L. It's also worth watching the Gulf and SE Coast next week for some homebrew potential. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles and operational models show a trough dipping in the south leading to TC genesis toward the latter part of next week. That's a climatologically favored genesis method, in addition to being in a climatologically favored region for TC development this time of year. 

It's also basically the only part of the basin not the subtropics that's warmer than normal. 

All across the MDR SSTs are ~1C cooler than to the N! This if it persists should keep a relative lid on TCs in the tropics themselves this year.

The PDO continues to plunge:

 The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

A dry gust front (outflow boundary) that showed up well on radar moved SW into this area at midnight. Then at ~12:45AM, a small area of thunderstorms well to the E of the main area moved SW into this area producing only a few rumbles of thunder and light rain, which continues. Oddly enough, after blinking off and on ~20 times, my power finally went out ~1AM despite my not noticing a big gust of wind or any nearby CTG lightning.

Edit: Power came back on just before 1:55AM.

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think Gawx has done research correlating the Solar cycle with ENSO states. I think he found out that there might be a few year lag for highest correlation.. he posted it in ENSO threads in previous years (or maybe I am thinking of the NAO). 

Thanks for the solar data by the way, that is actually really hard to find! 

It was Solar/NAO. What I found is that the only 6 sub -0.25 DJF NAOs since 1979-80 were all within ~two years of a cycle minimum and that every cycle minimum since the mid 1980s has had either 1 or 2 -NAO winters.

1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, 2020-1

Will we get two -NAO winters within the very late 2020s to early 2030s?

Upgraded back up to ham sandwich:
 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special outlook issued to update AL90 formation chances

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity
has become better organized in association with a small gale-force
low-pressure system located about 900 miles east-northeast of
Bermuda. This system will likely become a short-lived tropical
storm later today before more hostile environmental conditions end
its opportunity for development by this evening. The low is
forecast to move northeastward at around 15 to 20 mph while
remaining over the open central Atlantic. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

Down to 40%. So, it has diminished from a ham sandwich to a BLT.

The BLT is still hanging in there in the new TWO with still a 40% chance thanks to new thunderstorms:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms have 
redeveloped on the north side of a gale-force low-pressure system 
located about 700 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.  Environmental 
conditions are marginally favorable, and further resurgence of the 
thunderstorm activity could still result in the formation of a 
short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm.  By later today, 
the low is expected to encounter more hostile environmental 
conditions, ending its opportunity for development.  The system is 
forecast to move northeastward at around 15 to 20 mph while 
remaining over the open central Atlantic.  For additional 
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

*Edit 8:10AM: chance raised back to 50% for a TD or TS at 8AM

6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Recent satellite data indicates that the low pressure system located 
more than 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing 
gale-force winds.  However, the shower and thunderstorm activity 
remains dogshit.  Environmental conditions are still marginally 
favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm 
activity could result in the formation of a crappy short-lived tropical 
depression or tropical storm today or tonight.  By Tuesday, this 
system is expected to encounter shitty environmental 
conditions, ending its opportunity for development.  The system is 
forecast to move northeastward around 10 to 15 mph, remaining over 
the open central Atlantic.  For additional information, including 
gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Down to 40%. So, it has diminished from a ham sandwich to a BLT.

4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Looking like shit now

 

The ham sandwich still has a chance to become a TD through the day but I've got to tell you that it is a real ham:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images indicate that disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms are displaced to the east of an area of low pressure 
located about 600 miles east of Bermuda.  Environmental conditions 
are still marginally favorable for further development, and an 
increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a 
short-lived tropical depression today.  By Tuesday, this system is 
expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, 
ending its opportunity for development.  The system is forecast to 
move northeastward around 10 mph, remaining over the open central 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

—————-

Though sheared, the LLC is pretty tight and may allow this to be upgraded to a TD or even TS Andrea later today.

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Tf is a ham sandwich 

 

 

AL, 90, 202506230000, 3180N,  5640W, TAFB,  SS,    I, 5, 1515

 

The ham sandwich may get named:


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization 
overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles 
east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates 
the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum 
sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are 
only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and 
persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is 
likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical 
depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system 
is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, 
ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of 
development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 
mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

lol 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in 
association with an area of the low pressure located about 450 miles 
east of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the 
system possessed a well-defined surface circulation, and additional 
organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity could lead to 
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression over the next day 
or so. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less 
favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for 
further development. Regardless of development, the system is 
forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the 
open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

This, which has been designated as the first “ham sandwich” storm since 2023, is liable to be declared a TD shortly with a TS not out of the question.

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I don't think the PDO is similar to last year. We still have a -PDO, but I think we're heading towards neutral PDO as we get towards the winter. Progress isn't linear. Just look at 2013, which drifted back a bit into the negative during the summer:

2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65

2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

 

MTD June NOAA PDO is likely at ~~-2.3 and full June could easily be down to ~-2.5.

 The highs in the area were 93-95. But that tells only some of the story as the dewpoints/RH made it feel like ~100-102. I had to go into a house whose AC is broken. It was 91 inside and this was at 8PM. I was soaking wet within 5 minutes!

 Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again:

 Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again: