GaWx

 Forecasted indices for 1/24-6:

1. PNA rises from neutral to moderate +
2. AO strong -
3. NAO moderate -  
4. EPO rises from a very strong - to moderate -; despite the moderation, the lagging from the prior very strong -EPO in combo with a rising PNA and with the help of a -AO/-NAO is why extreme cold will be dropping into the C/E US.
5. WPO pretty strong -
6. MJO: GEFS has 7 while EPS has mainly 8

 So, overall the indices are just about as good as it gets for cold and thus storm potential.

——

Edit: Due to the huge amount of blocking, this time there may not be the typical NW trend as we get closer. In other words, the models a few days out may already be closer to reality assuming there actually is a storm.

On 1/17/2026 at 11:24 AM, GaWx said:

 The largest DJF 2 day drop of the EPO down into a -EPO was 367 (2/9-11/1996) followed by 364 (1/16-18/61). There’s a slight chance these are exceeded 1/14-16/26. We won’t know until Mon (reporting lag). If they aren’t exceeded, it would have a good chance to end up 3rd biggest drop (300+). The 1/14 EPO was +88. So, to get the record drop, the 1/16 would need to go <-279.

 This isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridge but rather it’s a measure of the fastest developing one.

Records go back to 1948.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

The #s are out. We just had the 3rd largest 2 day drop in winter of the EPO into negative territory on record back to 1948:

2026 01 14   88.01
2026 01 15  -92.49
2026 01 16 -254.34

 So, it dropped 342 from 1/14 to 1/16. The only two larger 2 day winter drops are not much higher: the 367 of 2/9-11/1996 and the 364 of 1/16-18/1961.

 As I said, this isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridges. Rather, it is a measure of the speed in establishing a new strong EPO ridge.

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

So w/ the AIFS EPS out of commissions at WxBell...here are the 18z(left) and 12z(right) comparison of the EPS and GEFS runs.  I prefer the EPS right now as it has been steady.  Let's hope their algorithms are right!  The 18z GEFS trended south.  The EPS might by 20 miles north and a bit drier as well on the northern fringes.  

 

 I do need to emphasize that I’m only talking about the algos that produce the WxBell EPS AI snow maps having a major issue. Regarding the qpf and other maps, I have no evidence to suggest these are off. So, I’m saying that it’s possible that it’s only the snow maps that have a major problem with regard to EPS AI.

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Eyes -> 18z GEFS  and 18z AIFS EPS snow means for the entire run.

 Carver and others,

 The WxBell Euro AIFS ens snow maps have a flaw so major that the 12Z run (just for one example) had one member (#38) 300 miles offshore in the Gulf getting a foot of snow within a 6 hour period while the temp was 65F+! You read that right, a 2”/hour snowstorm with temps in the 60s. These maps are so flawed than even Joe Bastardi, himself, noticed the same problem a few weeks ago! If even Joe noted this, well….use these at your own risk. The regular EPS snow maps are otoh legit:

16 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

The mean is starting to look legitimately insane

11 minutes ago, andrew29649 said:

I’ve been lurking for almost 20 years. This is crazy to me less than a week out. Considering all globals seem to be showing something of WSW criteria at the same time.

 If it is looks like it’s insane, quacks like it’s insane, it really is insane. That’s because the WxBell Euro AIFS ens snow maps have a flaw so major that the 12Z run (just for one example) had one member 300 miles offshore in the Gulf getting a foot of snow within a 6 hour period while the temp was 65F+! You read that right, a 2”/hour snowstorm with temps in the 60s. These maps are so flawed than even Joe Bastardi, himself, noticed the same problem a few weeks ago! If even Joe noted this, well….use these at your own risk. The regular EPS snow maps are otoh legit:

3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Which model verified best for today’s event in your eyes? I feel like the Euro AI did really well but I may be wrong. 

I’m not sure. But near the bottom was the regular Euro as it was last to trend NW with the track. It kept the snow centered near the coast for so long.

3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Thru Next Sunday at 7 PM

The WxBell Euro AI ensemble snow maps have to be using faulty algos. Here’s proof:

 From today’s 12Z Euro AI ens, this is member #38’s 6 hour snow map for hours 270-276 showing a blob of a foot of snow in the Gulf 300 miles from the N Gulf coast meaning an avg of 2”/hour over 6 hours lmao:

 That right there is proof enough that the snow algos are screwed up bigtime. But fwiw, I’ll also show the temp anomalies for hours 270 and 276 for that member:

Member #38 temp 2m anom hour 270:

Member #38 temp 2m anom hour 276:

Those temp maps show that the coldest it is during hours 270-6 where it has that snow blob is only ~8 BN. The SST there now is ~77F. That means that the air temp during the supposed snow is likely no colder than ~65F. There’s no way it could snow a foot way out in the Gulf, much less while air temps are 65F+.

Conclusion: There is a major algo issue with these Euro AI ensemble snow maps. Thus, I’d be very wary about using them. Even snow weenie Bastardi criticized them. EPS ens snow maps are fine, but not Euro AI ens snow maps.

@donsutherland1

40 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The new EPS mean might be the highest I have ever seen... 

Yep, for the main snow not starting for 6-7 days out this may be the heaviest I’ve seen on an EPS mean in NC even after taking ~1” off in some areas for today; also there’s quite the falloff S of NC as ZR seems to take over

Swainsboro switched from rain to snow at the 11AM hourly:

SWAINSBORO LGT SNOW 34 34 100 W5

1-1.25” Marianna, FL, just SW of GA/FL/AL corner!

1042 AM SNOW MARIANNA 30.78N 85.24W  
01/18/2026 M1.3 INCH JACKSON FL PUBLIC  

ABOUT 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED AS A  
FINAL ACCUMULATION.

13 minutes ago, Shack said:

Crazy Cartoon Horse sighting !!

Sure was pretty, wasn't it.  It's stopped now in Macon and my temp is up to 34deg now. 

Had a good Jeb-walk while it was still pouring.  

I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned but it's only two days away from the anniversary of last years southern snow event.

 

Has a lot of it melted away already? I read someone else said the Macon camera showed it “gone”, but I didn’t know exactly what he meant. That seemed awfully fast if it did.

At Smithville, GA, 10 miles S of Americus, 2-3” reported by EM:

1002 AM SNOW SMITHVILLE 31.90N 84.26W  
01/18/2026 E3.0 INCH LEE GA EMERGENCY MNGR  

2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED IN SMITHVILLE  
BY LEE COUNTY EM. SOME ACCUMULATION ON DIRT  
ROADS WITH ICY PATCHES ON SPOTS IN PAVED  
ROADS.

Biggest I’ve seen so far: 2.5” Cuthbert, WNW of Albany, GA!

0932 AM SNOW CUTHBERT 31.77N 84.79W  
01/18/2026 M2.5 INCH RANDOLPH GA BROADCAST MEDIA  

AVERAGE OF SNOWFALL FROM SEVERAL  
MEASUREMENTS.

 I read that it just changed to all snow at Dublin, GA. The radar looks good, too, regarding what’s falling/coming there.

 I just read 2” was measured 20 miles ESE of Macon at Jeffersonville near I-16!

Radar is quite impressive in a band in GA centered from Albany/Tifton to Dublin to Augusta.

Biggest winner so far: 3” at Monticello, GA!

0908 AM SNOW MONTICELLO 33.30N 83.68W  
01/18/2026 M3.0 INCH JASPER GA BROADCAST MEDIA  

REPORT FROM MEDIA OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN  
MONTICELLO.

*Edit: later corrected down by NWS to 2” from 3”.

 It appears per radar that Augusta might be about to get hit hard with something!
 

Meanwhile:

2” reported at Byron, GA! (Just WNW of Warner Robbins)

0830 AM SNOW 2 N POWERVILLE 32.63N 83.79W  
01/18/2026 E2.0 INCH PEACH GA PUBLIC  

AN ESTIMATED 2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT HAYES  
CT IN BYRON.

—————

*Edit: Wow, what a correction downward at Byron, GA, from 2” to 0.5”:

1013 AM SNOW 2 N POWERVILLE 32.63N 83.79W  
01/18/2026 E0.5 INCH PEACH GA PUBLIC  

CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM 2 N  
POWERVILLE. AN ESTIMATED 0.5 INCH OF SNOW  
FELL AT HAYES CT IN BYRON.

0822 AM SNOW DE FUNIAK SPRINGS 30.72N 86.12W  
01/18/2026  M0.5 INCH WALTON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

PICTURE VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF MEASUREMENT.

 @El Kabongin Perry is getting moderate snow now and it may get even heavier shortly. Americus has been getting accumulating snow for awhile. Radar suggests corridor centered from Cordele (shortly) northeast to Dublin (within an hour?) will probably be getting hit hard!

Radar indicates a heavy area of precip is aimed for just S of Macon (Warner Robbins southward) and then just E of Macon (Jeffersonville east)! Macon will be near NW border of this heavy precip. it appears.

It’s been snowing at Forsyth, GA nearly 30 min. Patience is recommended in Macon area as it’s about to start there:

Here are 7AM hourly readings:

COLUMBUS LGT SNOW 31 29 92 NW9 30.16R VSB 3/4 WCI 23  
6HR MIN TEMP: 31; 6HR MAX TEMP: 44; 6HR PCP: 0.04;  

MACON LGT RAIN 37 35 92 NW10 30.10R WCI 30 TC 3  
6HR MIN TEMP: 37; 6HR MAX TEMP: 45; 6HR PCP: 0.13;  

ROBINS AFB RAIN 39 36 87 NW16 30.09R WCI 30 TC 4  


CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS  
LAGRANGE* CLOUDY 34 14 44 NW9 30.14R WCI 26 TC 1  
SYLVANIA* RAIN 42 42 100 N6 30.04R TC 6  
MILLEDGEVILLE* LGT RAIN 39 37 93 NW14G20 30.08R FOG WCI 31