GaWx

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Fair to say that just like 1997 was, it’s the strongest and most east-based of the satellite era. But one can also say that this one is a league of its own (even stronger and even more east based) and probably comparable to 1877-78 or the 1790s el niño. 

In terms of the degree of it being E based, the @griteater graph below suggests it will likely be nearest 1998 but with 1983 and 1878 not being far off. When also considering that 1998 wasn’t nearly as good a QBO match as 1983 and 1878 is unknown, perhaps 1982-3 is the best analog of these. Your thoughts?

5 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Well except that wasn't the topic, if you follow the discussion back.   The topic was existential crisis, which is not the same as progressive or even accelerating levels of impacts.    ("Exist" of course being the root of "existential") 

To equate those two would require a third assumption - that the progression would either continue forever, or that it would reach a pace where adaptation is impossible.   The first is physically impossible.   For the latter - given the adaptability level of humans - our ability to live in both in the arctic and the extreme tropics, and the fact that earth has transitioned through *all* extremes several times in the past, with life still thriving, it will certainly not be happening.   

 

What do you think about the possibility of unmodeled negative feedbacks eventually stopping the warming and thus causing at least the most extreme climate model solutions to end up being way overdone? Is this a realistic possibility?

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The issue with using the CFSv2 at this time is that it is clearly having issues maintaining the initialized thermocline slope. That's definitely going to have an effect on its forcing placement and one of the reasons we see it giving ground. Feb will likely end up warmer.

Thank you.

Keep in mind though that it hasn’t come anywhere close to completely giving ground yet as the latest 12 run mean shows. That’s why I posted it to show its persistence for whatever that’s worth. Also, climo supports that Feb has a decent chance to be cold, especially in the S 1/2 of the US.

Further to my post above, here fwiw (maybe not much but it has been rather persistent on the general idea) is the latest 3 day/12 run averaged CFS for Feb:

Feb precip:

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

Do you think we’ll progress the same as 1997 or are you just talking about the warmth being the same for the east coast when winter is over?

 The warmth in the E US Dec is likely based on strong ENSO/+QBO analogs and models strongly supporting that warmth. However, once you get further into the winter, the jury is still way out on E US warmth, especially MidAtlantic, Mid-South, S Plains and the SE.

8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Trend has definitely been towards a stronger tucked coastal. Major impacts for obx looking likely now with prolonged exposure to NE wind and fetch with strong winds on land as well. Inland this should deliver moderate but beneficial rain. If this is a sign for what’s in store this winter I’ll be very happy, this is a snowstorm setup just a couple months too early 

 
 The 6Z UKMET brought it back way NW to within 300 miles of NC though not quite as close as the UK runs 0Z 10/14 through 6Z 10/15 that were only 200 miles SE of NC. That now means that for the first time that ALL of the latest runs of the major globals have it affecting parts of the E coast.

 I wonder if this should have its own thread in the SE forum soon since the threat for a major impact on at least E NC has increased substantially. It’s also being discussed in the main tropical thread because it may very well turn out to be ST or hybrid.

12Z Icon, GFS, GFS AI, RGEM, and JMA all have it.

12Z UKMET has it but not as close to NC as the 6Z. Thus its direct effect on  NC OB is more limited than 6Z and all other 12Z models pending the Euro/Euro AI.

Edit: The 12Z Euro-AI has it close to NC, but the regular Euro is actually further out than its recent runs and is near the 12Z UKMET

The 6Z UKMET brought it back way NW to within 300 miles of NC though not quite as close as the runs 0Z 10/14 through 6Z 10/15 that were only 200 miles SE of NC. That now means that for the first time that ALL of the latest runs of the major globals have it affecting parts of the E coast and it may very well end up a ST or hybrid.

@jconsor@vortex95

0Z CMC:

0Z JMA:

0Z UKMET like the 12Z and 18Z is well offshore.

0Z GFS has the coastal directly affecting the OB rather substantially. The 0Z Icon is similar to recent runs a bit further offshore than this GFS.

45 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Re: reefs

Generally hitting record levels these days, e.g.:

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.aims.gov.au/monitoring-great-barrier-reef/gbr-condition-summary-2023-24

There's only been significant record-keeping since the 1980's, so we don't know what the trend is, or whether or not bleaching events that we've seen are normal vs CC-caused or not.

Certainly not seeing any "death of the world" trending there.

Re:  Extinctions - let's look at that, shall we?

Here's a database of recent extinctions:

https://recentlyextinctspecies.com/database/most-recent-global-extinctions

Starting from the top:

Achatinella apexfulva - land snail; native to Hawaii; made extinct by introduction of predator by the rosy wolfsnail, deforestation, and the Jackson's chameleon.  Not climate change.

Ecnomiohyla rabborum - Rabb’s fringe-limbed treefrog; made extinct by chytrid fungus.  Not climate change.

Microcolpia parreyssii parreyssii - Parreys' thermal snail; existed in only one tiny locaion, made extinct by groundwater extraction.   Not climate change.

etc. etc.   (not about to look up the details on the whole list)

Wikipedia list of extinct species:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_extinct_species

Cursory search - could not find a single one made extinct by climate change.    There are thousands of them listed though, so maybe there are some I didn't see.

The vast majority of extinctions happening, by far, are due to things *other* than climate change.   Hunting, fishing, habitat loss due to deforestation, introduction of new predators, etc etc.   Most of these are human-caused, yes, but not climate change.

Bottom line: Fearmongering.

There is no "world death" looming, of any sort.   At least not due to climate change.

 
 What are your thoughts about the horrible 2023 FL Keys bleaching event caused by prolonged record hot SSTs in the low 90s? Key West buoy hit an amazing 92.8F during the late afternoon of 8/2/23! Several of us here followed this disaster and posted about it:

 The devastation there was amplified by the persistent heat as measured by the amazingly high DHW:

Two species were nearly wiped out! The good news though is that they saved genetic material from them thank goodness:

However, even these coral species are not entirely lost.

During the heat wave, scientists saved about 150 genotypes, a.k.a. genetic material, of elkhorn coral and 250 genotypes of staghorn. They’re stored in biobanks at the Mote laboratory and The Reef Institute in West Palm Beach, Florida. The material will be used to propagate and reintroduce staghorn and elkhorn corals once conditions are more favorable.

https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/two-florida-coral-species-were-nearly-wiped-out-heat-wave

42 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Yes, and it makes the top 5!

Highest U.S. TC Storm Surges
1)  Katrina  Aug 2005  27.80 ft  Pass Christian MS
2)  Camille  Aug 1969  24.60 ft  Pass Christian MS
3)  Carla    Sep 1961  22.07 ft  Port Lavaca TX
4)  Laura    Sep 2020  19.86 ft  Creole LA
5)  Unnamed  Sep 1938  19.17 ft  Point Judith RI
6)  Unnamed  Sep 1935  18.23 ft  Lower Matecumbe Key FL
7)  Beulah   Sep 1967  18.00 ft  South Padre Island TX
8)  Ike      Sep 2008  17.79 ft  Chambers County TX
9)  Hugo     Sep 1989  17.55 ft  Awendaw SC
10) Rita     Sep 2005  17.25 ft  Cameron Parish LA

Ike is the only on the list not a MH at landfall. However, that’s a technicality because it was at the high end of cat 2 and it was also gigantic in size!

 I wonder how high the surge was for these devastating hurricanes in comparison:

-Sea Islands of 1893

-Galveston H of 1900

54 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Hazel in Oct 1954 was a rare beast.

First, it is strongest, farthest N HU landfall for so late in the season the CONUS on record (115 kt).

Second, it likely the quickest ET transition for an intense landfall CONUS HU.  HURDAT2 shows it ET only 2.5 hr after landfall!

Third, its phase w/ a strong baroclinic trough was about as ideal as you could get, similar to Fiona in Sep 2022 I bet.  It still had sustained winds of 70 kt when it was at 40N/77W, which is extraordinary.  It was racing N at 42 kt once inland as well.

A truly exceptional event, similar to Sandy, but for wind more potent.  So is it any surprise such crazy winds occurred so far N?  Not only NYC recorded its record gust of 98 kt, but also DC as well (85 kt).

It's why I say events like Sandy are not unprecedented or really or not as uncommon as portrayed.  Hazel, the 1938 New England HU, and Agnes in 1972, were much like this, getting picked up strongly and eventually phasing in w/ an potent baroclinic trough that would have resulted in a sig storm even w/o the HU present.  And they each ended up setting the big records differently.  Hazel and 1938 was about wind, Agnes was about rain/flooding, and Sandy was about storm surge.

Isn’t 1938 also about a very high storm surge?

18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Windshield wiper. GFS finally onboard with it too, tho weak and offshore 

 The 18Z GFS came well W and is thus the most threatening GFS run yet by far to the E coast with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE.

 Back to 12Z, the JMA has it for its first time and hits much of the SE solidly with this with much of the Carolinas and S VA getting a very beneficial 2”+ of rain the next 8 days:

18Z GFS is the most threatening GFS yet to the E coast by far with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE. 

 The 12Z JMA has it for its first time and hits the SE US pretty potently with a very beneficial 2”+ for much of the Carolinas and S VA!

 Edit: 18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

 The NAO is higher on today’s GEFS mean vs that of two days ago:

two days ago: peaking 10/15 at +1.0 and then dropping to -1 

Today peaks not til 10/19 and with that being up at +1.3 and then drops only to -0.7 followed by a quick bounce that gets back up to -0.2 on 10/27 vs it still being down at -0.9 on 10/27 two days ago

@Stormchaserchuck1

 The 12Z Euro still has the E coast storm next week. So, currently the 12Z run non-AI main global models with it are the CMC (its first time) and the Euro (3rd time in a row at 0Z/12Z as 6Z/18Z have yet to have it, which I could tell because 144 hours was far out enough to tell).

 Also, the 12Z Euro AIFS still has it.

 My stance has been and still is:

-whereas CC/AGW has its clearly detrimental effects and thus I’m not happy about it (plus I selfishly prefer cold over warmth way down here in the deep SE), its effects aren’t all bad and that’s naturally largely being ignored by the extreme doomsayers. I‘m referring mainly to the increased greening of the globe that has occurred and also the reduced number of deaths from cold, which has killed many more than heat per organizations that compile the stats even though the balance could change if it gets hot enough, of course

-there very well could be some negative feedback loops that aren’t being modeled well as regards how much warmer it will ultimately get, which if true would mean that the worst case scenarios aren’t realistic

Full rundown of 12Z main global non-AI for the possible E coast storm next week excluding the not yet released Euro:

The 12Z UKMET, after 3 full runs in a row with an E coast “tropical cyclone”, has no TC and not even an E coast storm as the non-tropical low forms well offshore (300 miles) and then moves out NE from there to just NW of Bermuda.

12z Icon is much further offshore than its 0Z with little E coast effect.

12Z GFS is a bit closer (similar to the 0Z) but like for the 0Z the low still is far enough out to have little effect on the E coast as it then moves out.

OTOH, the 12Z CMC is its first run with effects on the E coast with it getting caught 300 miles SE of the Carolinas and then then coming back WSW to Jacksonville on 10/23. That’s now an extreme outlier pending what the 12Z Euro shows.

Edit: 12Z Euro and Euro-AI still have it.

Full rundown of 12Z main global non-AI for the possible E coast storm next week excluding the not yet released Euro:

The 12Z UKMET, after 3 full runs in a row with an E coast “tropical cyclone”, has no TC and not even an E coast storm as the non-tropical low forms well offshore (300 miles) and then moves out NE from there to just NW of Bermuda.

12z Icon is much further offshore than its 0Z with little E coast effect.

12Z GFS is a bit closer (similar to the 0Z) but like for the 0Z the low still is far enough out to have little effect on the E coast as it then moves out.

OTOH, the 12Z CMC is its first run with effects on the E coast with it getting caught 300 miles SE of the Carolinas and then then coming back WSW to Jacksonville on 10/23. That’s now an extreme outlier pending that the 12Z Euro shows.

 No CMC has had any storm close enough to the E coast to have much, if any, effect on the E coast. The Euro has had 2 with it (12Z yest and 0Z today) with interestingly all of the shorter runs in between (6Z/18Z), which go out far enough to tell, having no E coast storm. OTOH, the UKMET’s last 3 full runs have had it and the newest (6Z) suggests it would also have it based on the last map (hour 66). The first Icon with it any effect was yesterday’s 12Z with the 18Z at least a close call. The 0Z was by far the most ominous with it coming back W at the end. It also had it but then the 6Z had it further offshore though it’s hard to tell if it would have come back close enough to have much effect in the NE. I’m guessing no. It appears based on hour 162 that the 12Z Icon won’t have much effect on even the OB. Edit: confirmed

47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

So are we gonna have a nor Easter this weekend or is it going to be beautiful? Models have flipped and flopped (besides GFS which has held firm with no storm)

 Or it could be both depending on one’s location, of course. The NC Outer Banks could have large effects with most of the rest of the SE being beautiful.

And we can add the 0Z Euro, too, with a full-blown very intense storm (12Z Euro also had it)!

 It’s also on the 0Z UKMET, the 3rd run in a row with this one a little stronger with a min of 1003 mb/max of 52 knots/60 mph. It forms off of S SC and then moves N into NC OB area followed by a move E offshore and then a S drift as it weakens:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 32.4N 76.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2026 72 32.4N 76.0W 1010 42
1200UTC 18.10.2026 84 34.0N 75.1W 1008 48
0000UTC 19.10.2026 96 32.5N 75.9W 1003 52
1200UTC 19.10.2026 108 34.2N 75.2W 1005 45
0000UTC 20.10.2026 120 36.2N 75.6W 1004 40
1200UTC 20.10.2026 132 36.6N 74.7W 1006 35
0000UTC 21.10.2026 144 36.4N 73.1W 1007 33
1200UTC 21.10.2026 156 35.0N 72.7W 1009 34
0000UTC 22.10.2026 168 32.7N 73.4W 1012 35

I’m assuming this is tropical on the 0Z Icon: holy cow!