GaWx

I just got an enjoyable walk in this evening with mid 40s, calm winds, and some cool looking fog that had formed especially over the warmer water with RH.% in the 90s.

Jan update of MJO through Jan 2nd: finally heading back the other way inside the circle. So the first two days of Jan are on or inside circle. 12/29-1/2 were in phase 5:

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

It looks to get to near normal at least next week

I’m looking forward to a NN averaged week next week which should include some BN (assuming it verifies), with its largely Canadian airmass influenced chilliness…great for walking…always welcomed! The upcoming mid-week to weekend of semi-torching to torching won’t be too fun for that .

OND RONI -0.92

OND ONI -0.55

So, OND RONI was 0.37 lower than OND ONI. That difference was a similar 0.35 for SON meaning the difference has been pretty steady for awhile.

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

people are making too big of a deal of MJO phase 6. If this is correct...its a 2-4 day thing where irs out of the neutral circle

Ji/Mitch

 I agree that folks are making too big of a deal about phase 6 and BAMwx’s map is much too cold as I said. My own research looked at phase 6 including phase 6 inside the circle and it was as I said not nearly as cold as that BAMwx’s map for all cases averaged out (-2 at GSP vs BAM’s -6 to -7). Based on the latest ext GEFS, phase 6 is currently forecasted to last 9 days (14th-22nd) while it lasts 7 days on the ext EPS (14th-20th). So, both have 7 days (14th-20th) in phase 6. But of course they’ll likely not verify exactly and may end up not close. And even if close, the variance of temperatures for Jan La Niña phase 6 is large.

@mitchnick

11 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Does that mean we finally get the rockin' February?

Taking what Webb said and looking ahead to where the Feb MJO may start (fwiw since that’s in the low skill 4 week away period and the models recently have done poorly much earlier than that), the latest forecasts of the extendeds look seemingly favorable for early Feb as they’re showing it going into phase 8 then: coldest Feb phases are 8-1-2-3

1/3 ext GEFS:

1/3 ext EPS:

18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2007877906010358075

Taking what Webb said and looking ahead to where the Feb MJO may start (fwiw since that’s in the low skill 4 week away period and the models recently have done poorly much earlier than that), the latest forecasts of the extendeds look seemingly favorable for early Feb as they’re showing it going into phase 8 then: coldest Feb phases are 8-1-2-3

1/3 ext GEFS:

1/3 ext EPS:

Just now, Ji said:

Jan 16--zero southern stream.

Ji,

 With it still being a solid La Niña on a RONI basis (was still  -1.0 in Dec and is only slowly warming), wouldn’t a weak southern stream be favored much of the winter?

11 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Umm I always thought phase 6 was a warm phase..  this shows a cold phase  with a. Deep trough in east ... Hmm

 As I said, I think BAMwx is significantly too cold in the means (which is what their map is supposed to represent). That pink area of -6 to -7 in the SE is, in reality (based on actual data that I analyzed) more like -2 along with much variation. And I didn’t analyze it for the entire E half of the US, which would take too long. If I get time, I could add a city like Baltimore, however, just to get an idea for this forum’s area.

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree...I do think the +TNH can carry over, though...maybe some misattribution going on if we get the colder Feb.

 Again to make sure folks keep track of what Webb actually said, he never said “Modoki El Niño forcing”. He said this:

“It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.”

 So, in between La Niña and Modoki El Niño is exactly what he referred to. Per his research, a Feb in that group tended to be cold.

 By the way, Dec came in at -0.98 on a RONI basis and the latest BoM still has Feb down to -0.6. So, Feb will still be La Niña in that respect, which I respect.
 

1 hour ago, bncho said:

 

BAM WX says that January -AAM/MJO 6 analogs since 1990 favor cold for most of the central and eastern US. Whether this is 100% true is questionable, but it's still interesting to note.

This is BAMwx’s image: see lower right…that coldest area over the SE is ~-6 to -7 F for Jan -AAM phase 6s:

 The following are results of my research, which looked at GSP, a station in that coldest (pink) area, during La Niña Jans on that lower right map:

Niña Year….# phase 6 days in Jan…avg anomaly

1975…3…-8 M

1976…13…-9 W-S

1989…3…+8 M

1999…3…+2 M

2000…3…-4 W

2006…6…+3 S

2008…3…+8 S

2009…6…+1 W-M

2011…12…-7 W-S

2012…19…+1 W-S

2017…2…0 W

2018…3…-2 S

2021…8…-1 M-S

2022…4…-9 W

2025…2…-5 W

W weak (mainly in or near circle), M mod., S strong

91 total days (big sample)

 So, not surprisingly, there’s a wide spread. But the overall avg temp. anomaly at GSP during La Niña Jan phase 6s over the last 50 years did avg out to -2 F, a bit counterintuitive. So, this tells me two things:
 

- Any possible phase 6 this month won’t necessarily favor mild in the E US though the spread is wide and it could end up that way

- BAMwx’s -6 to -7 area in the SE and that map in general is significantly too cold for La Niña Jan phase 6. Only 6 of the 15 periods (40%) were about as cold as BAMwx. But the 40% does show a -6 to -7ish phase 6 this month would be doable.

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Pro met or not, I completely disagree that February is going to be Modoki El Niño like. We are not going to light switch flip from a canonical La Niña pattern into a Modoki El Niño pattern in a matter of weeks. It defies physics and common sense IMO. If I’m wrong….oh well. And Ray is not suggesting that we go into a Modoki El Niño pattern for February, he’s basing February and March on a possible stratospheric disruption not ENSO

 
 1. He’s a well educated and well respected pro-met who typically backs up his posts with hard data. So, one wouldn’t think he’d risk his reputation by being a baseless weenie.

2. Just to clarify, in nothing that I quoted did Eric explicitly say he expects to go into a “Modoki El Niño pattern”. He said:

“we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.”

 Is that wrong?

3. What’s Roundy saying?

4. Otherwise, are there any other Mets making a call for Feb?

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So, he’s saying that we are going to go from a classic front-loaded (cold/snowy) La Niña winter evolution from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March?  That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response

 Thanks, snowman.

 Well, fortunately he’s a well respected pro-met who constantly backs up his posts with hard data. So, he’d know what he’s talking about and thus he has a ton of followers. He didn’t say anything about March, however. Just Feb.

 That being said, is he near perfect? Of course not as he’s had his share of busts. But who hasn’t? So, his and other takes are all we have right now to go off of this early from pros. I wouldn’t bet anywhere near the farm on anyone this far out, but this is very encouraging to read. Also, Ray is on a similar page. I don’t recall any pro met being down on Feb recently. But I could have missed somebody.

 Speaking of other takes, has the well respected Paul Roundy said anything definitive about Feb yet? If so, please post it. TIA.

Edit: This may be related to Webb’s optimism. Look at the OHC sharp warming:

And look at the rising AAM fcast from yesterday’s CFS:

Coldest Jan 7th+ for Chicago lows on GEFS runs thru today’s 18Z:

1/2 12Z +25
1/3 0Z +25
6Z +21
12Z +19
18Z +15

 So, the GEFS mean coldest low at Chicago on the 18Z is a whopping 10 F colder than it was just 18 hours ago and is actually now slightly colder than the 12Z EPS’ 17. The normal Chicago low is for then ~18. So, the source for potential cold in the SE has gotten sig. colder. That’s the point of following and posting these.

 This colder 18Z run was largely related to a stronger -WPO, -EPO, and -AO vs the 12Z.

 For those who are hoping for a cold Feb in the SE US, Eric Webb just a little while ago posted these increasingly positive takes:

“It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.

Notice the recurrent appearance of westerly wind anomalies over the Western Pacific (warm colors). 

Unlike most Nina winters that usually end up being very mild in February, seeing this change in the base state already occurring tells me that this winter has a few tricks up its sleeves.”

————

“Fwiw, I separated winters that preceded cool ENSO (cold neutral or Nina) >> El Niño transition by “cold” and “warm” Februarys on the East Coast and looked at their OLR/convective anomalies in the Tropical Pacific

IMHO, given how much the Warm Pool has already advanced eastward, this year is leaning towards the “cold” February group with more convective activity or -OLR anomalies (cool colors) over the tropical West Pacific and tropical North Pacific, with a slightly weaker and eastward shifted area of +OLRa (decreased cloudiness, warm colors) near the International Dateline.”

—————

“IMHO, we have opened the door to the possibility of 2014 style Feb this year with how the low frequency state is evolving in the Pacific.”

   For those who are hoping for a cold Feb in the E US, Eric Webb just a little while ago posted these increasingly positive takes:

“It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.

Notice the recurrent appearance of westerly wind anomalies over the Western Pacific (warm colors). 

Unlike most Nina winters that usually end up being very mild in February, seeing this change in the base state already occurring tells me that this winter has a few tricks up its sleeves.”

————

“Fwiw, I separated winters that preceded cool ENSO (cold neutral or Nina) >> El Niño transition by “cold” and “warm” Februarys on the East Coast and looked at their OLR/convective anomalies in the Tropical Pacific

IMHO, given how much the Warm Pool has already advanced eastward, this year is leaning towards the “cold” February group with more convective activity or -OLR anomalies (cool colors) over the tropical West Pacific and tropical North Pacific, with a slightly weaker and eastward shifted area of +OLRa (decreased cloudiness, warm colors) near the International Dateline.”

—————

“IMHO, we have opened the door to the possibility of 2014 style Feb this year with how the low frequency state is evolving in the Pacific.”

14 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Where are we for the MJO? Still stuck in the cod?

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

The reason for these Chi coldest of run posts is because of it being a source region since a lot of SE cold travels from that area. It’s extremely hard for the SE to get colder than Chi (outside of mtns) as the air traveling from there modifies as it comes SE and even more w/o snowcover.

Whereas the 0Z GFS suite stayed the same (quite mild) as the 12Z despite the Euro suite getting sig. colder post Jan 6th, the 6Z GFS suite did trend a notable amount colder even though it’s still mainly mild (normal lows upper teens) (ens means are the most important that far out) 

Coldest post Jan 6th of GFS/GEFS:

12Z +30/+25
0Z +29/+25
6Z +21/+21

Coldest post Jan 6th at Chicago on GFS/GEFS thru today’s 12Z:

1/2 12Z +30/+25
1/3 0Z +29/+25
      6Z +21/+21
     12Z +22/+19

Same for Euro/EPS:

1/2 12Z +22/+22

1/3 0Z   -15/+16

1/3 12Z  +7/+17

Dec QBO falls some more to -26.92, the lowest on record in Dec (to 1948) vs 2014’s -25.38. This sets up the chance for a record in Jan, too, though 2015’s -26.7 likely will be close:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Today’s ens MJO progs both later get into 6: inside circle 6 would be best for cold chance during ph 6 as just posted: also Jans with 20+ days anywhere inside circle have averaged colder than the others as I posted about before:

12 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I just do not buy Phase 6 being cold

 Well, as it turned out again using GSP, El Niño ph 6 near or inside the circle in Jan turns out to avg cold just like La Niña inside Jan ph 6:

Phase 6 during Nino Jan

77 6-9, 11-13: -7, -4, -11, -7, -20, -15, -13 (-11 W)

78 4: -6 (-6 W)

80 31: -13 (-13 W)

83 10-1: +1, +3 (+2 W)

92 3-8: +10, +13, +8, +6, +2, +1 (+7 W)

95 28-30: +1, -6, -7 (-4 W)

98 1-3, 21-2: -12, 0, +6, -3, -3 (-2 M)(-3 W)

03 10-12, 23-5: +5, -6, -10, -16, -19, -10 (-4 M)(-15 W)

05 9-19, 31: +10, +11, +11, +18, +22, +7, -1, -2, -13, -15, -14, -1 (+3 M)(-1 M)

07 9-13, 15-6, 24, 26-31: -1, -3, -4, +5, +16, +21, +5, -3, -5, +5, -2, -15, -2, -12 (+6 M)(-5 W)

10 20-1: +15, +3 (+9 M)

15 9-14, 28-31: -8, -11, -10, -1, -1, -4, -3, -2, 0, -4 (-6 S)(-2 W)

19 2-3, 25-30: +10, +11, -4, -5, -3, +1, -3, -9 (+11 S)(-4 S)

24 24-7: +6, +17, +21, +12 (+14 S)

So, there were 20 Nino Jan ph 6 periods:

10 W: 3 MB, 4 B, 2 N, 1 A; avg -158/36 = -4.4 for weak!

6 M: 1 B, 2 N, 2 A, 1 MA avg +43/27 = +1.2 for moderate

4 S: 2 B, 2 MA +19/18 = +1 for strong

81 days

BN 39

NN 16

AN 26

-66 cumulative or -1/day overall but cold concentrated when near/inside circle (-4 there vs +1 outside) similar to La Niña! For La Niña, it was overall -2/day with it averaging -5/day near/inside circle and +1 outside.

 So, the BAMwx idea of a cold E US during ph 6 in Jan in -AAM works out only for weak/mainly inside the circle and Nino is similar.

 As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild:

The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?

 As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild:
 

The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Followup:

0Z vs 12Z Chicago lowest min (F) Jan 6+:

Euro: -15 vs +22

EPS: +16 vs +22

GFS: +29 vs +30

GEFS: +25 vs +25

 So, whereas Euro suite is colder, GFS suite is unchanged

The reason for these Chi coldest of run posts is because of it being a source region since a lot of SE cold travels from that area. It’s extremely hard for the SE to get colder than Chi (outside of mtns) as the air traveling from there modifies as it comes SE and even more w/o snowcover.

Whereas the 0Z GFS suite stayed the same (quite mild) as the 12Z despite the Euro suite getting sig. colder post Jan 6th, the 6Z GFS suite did trend a notable amount colder even though it’s still mainly mild (normal lows upper teens) (ens means are the most important that far out) 

Coldest post Jan 6th of GFS/GEFS:

12Z +30/+25
0Z +29/+25
6Z +21/+21

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro/GFS coldest low at Chicago 1/6-1/18: 22/30

12Z EPS/GEFS coldest low at Chicago 1/6-18: 22/25

Normal low 20-18

Not good for SE cold prospects. So, hopefully they’re going to turn out way too warm like 12/28-1/1 and earlier periods did. We’ll see. If not, it’s going to be very hard for the SE overall to get substantially cold before 1/20.

Those 90 day bias maps had Chicago too warm by 4 F for the 11-15 fwiw:

Followup:

0Z vs 12Z Chicago lowest min (F) Jan 6+:

Euro: -15 vs +22

EPS: +16 vs +22

GFS: +29 vs +30

GEFS: +25 vs +25

 So, whereas Euro suite is colder, GFS suite is unchanged