GaWx

15 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN

I assume you know that the warmest month of the winter of 1982-3 in the E US, including SE, was Dec by a wide margin. It was a bonafide torch, the only month like that in the SE to NE. The remainder in the SE was pretty close to normal to slightly BN in some areas.

 As a near coastal resident who was directly affected heavily by FIVE H/TS 2016-24, I’m very much enjoying the break from the stress of threats!

 However, looking back at the 6 other El Niño seasons with <4.4 ACE through Sep 6th tells me to still be cautious for the rest of the season, especially late Sept through mid-Oct:

1) 1941: -TS TX/LA border mid Sep
-H TX late Sep
-TS Windwards/MH Honduras/Nicaragua/H Belize late Sep
-H NW Bahamas/MH S FL/H FL Pan early Oct
-TS SE Bahamas/FL Big Bend mid Oct

2) 1929:
-MH NW Bahamas and S FL tip/H FL Pan late Sep

3) 1914: 
-TS FL/GA border mid Sep

4) 1905:
-TS Belize/LA late Sep
-TS W Haiti early Oct
-TS LA early Oct

5) 1904: 
-H upper SC mid Sep
-TS Belize early Oct
-H C Cuba/S FL mid Oct
-TS FL Pan early Nov

6) 1876:
-H/Leewards/MH VI and PR/H Hisp/E Cuba/NC mid Sep
-TS Windwards late Sep/H Nicaragua early Oct
-H Caymans/MH W Cuba/H Keys and SW FL/TS Bermuda mid Oct

 These six very quiet first half of season El Niño analogs are suggesting an avg of 3 TCs (range 1-5), including 1.5 H (range 0-3) and 0.8 MH (range 0-2) yet to come that would have significant to major land impacts. Hopefully though it will be most like 1914 or otherwise 1905 at the worst!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Might as well circle my house and add D4 on next drought monitor. We’ll have to wait 10 more months for another AN month of rain I guess 

1. This very strong El Niño has a good chance to start helping out you and other SE dry areas by Nov and hopefully would then continue on/off through March as climo suggests.

2. I ended up getting very little from the late afternoon thunderstorms. It was only ~0.02”.

I’ve been getting light rain from thunderstorms during the last ~1/2 hour as it started ~4PM. I just heard pretty loud thunder from one fairly close CTG lightning strike.

12 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Hunga-Tonga actually warmed the globe w/ a distinct delayed temp spike in 2023-24 as it ejected an enormous amount of WV into the stratosphere, which is normally very dry.
 

 I’m not disagreeing with you because I’m, myself, quite suspicious about the 1/15/22 Hunga-Tonga causing that delayed temp spike earlier in ‘23 than what the ‘23 El Niño should have caused. But if you were to post that in the CC forum, you’d get a lot of opposition or at least doubt based on past Hunga-Tonga discussions in there. Several folks there have downplayed it because they think the warming effect was minimal/far lower than that early ‘23 temp spike and they backed it up with at least one source fwiw.

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It is, but both sites are in different Himalayan subregions with different topography and wind exposure. 

 Thanks. But this graph has avg for entire summer well over 0C? This is far warmer than what Chris Martz was suggesting about the site of the collapse (i.e., only occasionally reaching to barely above freezing), isn’t it?

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Everest base camp is about 160 km from the site of the bedrock/glacial collapse that occurred last month.

Thanks, Don. Does that big a difference in temps for just 160 km away and 164 meters/538 feet elevation jibe with what you’d expect?

 Dry adiabatic rate is 3C/5.4F per 1000 feet, correct?

 So, on 2nd thought, maybe?

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^ Should get some 500mb effect in the N. Pacific if that forecast verifies for early Oct

Although this 12Z 9/5/26 CFSv2 ens. AAM fcast is THE highest I’ve seen for the entire 35 day period, I realize that it has a + bias, especially the further out in the forecast period. I still haven’t seen anything forecasted at 4+ to verify even closely and even many of the 3+ forecast days have been overdone.
 

 This has 4+ for all 4 members by day 11 (Sept 15th), which along with the 0Z 9/5/26 forecast is at the earliest I’ve ever seen that high. It has 3+ starting on Sep. 8th. But as I alluded to, many runs had 3+ for all of mid to late Aug and all of Sept and few, if any, days actually hit 3+ since mid Aug. It even dipped briefly to just below +2 in late Aug! 

 In this case, I expect it will reach 3+ within a few days based on how steep it has it rising now. But regarding it hitting 4+ Sep. 15th or even after, I’ll believe it when I see it!

4 hours ago, chubbs said:

Robert Rhode has estimated temperatures near the Nepal collapse site at 5200 meters using ERA and local temperature data. Below are several quotes and graphs from his Blue Sky thread. 

The collapsed glacier site was historically not far from the melting threshold in summer with only a short period of summer melting expected. Unfortunately, global warming has greatly expanded the duration and intensity of summer melt in this region at 5200m elevation.

Summer 2026 is estimated to have been 4th warmest on record for this Nepali glacier, behind 2024, 2025, and 2022. In addition, the collapse occurred at the end of a 6-day heatwave that featured several of the warmest August days on record.

https://bsky.app/profile/rarohde.bsky.social/post/3muom4fol422p

I’m admittedly confused. Are we looking at the temp. data for the same place? Per my post from 3 days ago:

“Highest and lowest recorded temperatures at Everest Base Camp (EBC) depend on which camp and which dataset, but reliable observations come from automatic weather stations (AWS) installed at the South Base Camp (Nepal side, ~5,364 m) and other nearby high-altitude stations.

Summary of best-available values (observations and published AWS records, through May 2024):

• Highest recorded air temperature
  • South (Nepal) Base Camp AWS: about −1.0 °C to +1.0 °C on the warmest days in late spring/early summer (typically May). Many published station summaries and expedition logs report peak values near 0 °C; a commonly cited peak is ~+0.5 °C. Slightly warmer spot measurements in sunlight or lower-elevation tent sites can exceed +1 °C briefly, but sustained, instrumented air-temperature peaks at the official South Base Camp are around 0 °C to +1 °C.

@donsutherland1@Typhoon Tip

Lol!

 Clemson at LSU originally had a 6:30PM CDT scheduled kickoff. But due to a lightning delay/heavy thunderstorms, they’re not kicking off til 8:40PM CDT! This supposedly would be the latest start in LSU history!

 I read that Lane Kiffin does not have either of the former pros on its roster for tonight. He’s worried due to a lawsuit by the SEC against LSU. The concern is that LSU would possibly have to forfeit any games with them on the roster. There’s also the worry about eventually being thrown out of the SEC although that’s very highly unlikely.

 The worst E US Sept heatwave on record was during El Niño (1925).

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Sept 2026:

 

Sept 2023:

Here are the relevant SLP maps for JFM NAO:

JFM ’24: strong -NAO

JFM ‘27: even stronger -NAO, which jibes with your comparison of JFM ‘24 to JFM ‘27.

 However, note that there are stronger SLP contrasts worldwide in ‘27 vs ‘24 and not just in the NAO region. Note that in ‘24, only ~1% has +2+ mb vs ~~10% in ‘27. Similarly, the % with -2- mb is sig. higher in ‘27 vs ‘24. Not sure what to make of that.

23 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24. 

I’ll add that the globe is warmer over last 3 years helping to add to the huge increase in >+40m anomalies.

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m

 

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

‘26:

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

‘26:

15 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest CFSV2 30 day multi run precip and temps maps for Dec-March.

 Will, thanks for posting.
 Unfortunately, WB CFS temp. maps have major algo flaws and thus I rarely post them. Example: they usually have a major cold spot over S Lake Michigan and a major warm spot over N L. Mich & vicinity just 250 miles to the N! Also, they tend to have too much contrast between well inland areas of the E 1/2 of the US (too cold) and the much warmer near E coast (often too warm).
 

 Related to this, WB shows at/near record cold Feb/Mar of -5 to -7C (and even vs the colder 1981-2010 climo!) in those areas with the 3rd-6th shades of green based on the means of 30 days of runs. The CFSv2 site shows nothing of the sort:

examples for Feb:

1) Columbus, GA, in Feb is ~-3.5C vs 1991-2020 for the avg of the 3 maps below from the CFSv2 site, itself, whereas WB has them ~-5C vs the colder 1981-2010 or ~2C/3.6F too cold (1991-2020 is 0.5C warmer than 1981-2010).

2) At the same time, the NC/VA border on E coast in Feb is ~-1.5C vs 1991-2020 on CFSv2 compared to NN on WB vs the colder 1981-2010 meaning WB is ~1C too warm

8/6-15:

8/16-25:

8/26-9/4:

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’m sorry but this is just incorrect to say it’s not the warmest. You should specify that it’s not the highest relative Nino 3.4 index. To flat out say “it’s not the warmest” is incorrect. 

If my local airport reaches 101, that would be the warmest temperature on record, since the all-time record is 100. If i come up with some “relative temperature” it doesn’t change that fact. 

The fact still stands that Nino 3.4 is at its all time highest, and has been consistently.

 

1. My post started with “Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out”.

 Thus it should be understood by anyone following along that the entire post is talking about “relative” anomalies.

2. My entire post is addressing anomalies, not absolutes. You’re using an absolute in your example.

3. Relative anomalies are now official for NOAA and BoM at the least. 

4. The outdated traditional way of determining anomalies is currently inflated ~0.5C due to GW.

4. August of 2026 was very warm, but it wasn’t the warmest relative 3.4 anomaly on record as Aug of 1997 was 0.18 warmer.

5. The main point of my post is that the models had way too rapid warming in 3.4 from July to August. The relative anomaly in 3.4 warmed only 0.34C per ERSST, which prevented a record high relative 3.4 anomaly for Aug. like had been progged.

Nino 1+2 (keep in mind that this is non-relative) had a strong rise yesterday. Get ready for a tweet from Adam, Abraham, and/or others addressing this saying record breaking yada yada yada. Keep in mind though that records from 1982-3 and 1997-8 are based on weeklies, not dailies. Also, highest relative WEEKLY in 1983 was +4.6 and in 1997 was +4.1. Let’s see where the current calendar week relative 1+2 on Monday. It won’t be anywhere near +4.6 although it may get close to +4.0.

Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out and it also shows a rather mundane warming in August vs July compared to the near record breaking rapid warming of ~1C that several models had been showing. The Nino 3.4 anomaly warmed by only 0.34:

2026   6   1.07
2026   7   1.33
2026   8   1.67

 It had been earlier progged to be >+2 for August. For example, check out this June 13-22 mean CFSv2 prog for August: +2.3, which was notably above what verified:

 How does August of ‘26 compare to other very warm Nino Augusts since 1950? It’s very warm but still wasn’t the warmest as 1997 was 0.18 warmer. Had it warmed to +2+ like had been progged, August would have easily been the warmest on record:

2026 +1.67

2015 +1.58

1997 +1.85

1987 +1.27

1982 +0.93

1972 +1.47

1965 +1.57

1957 +1.36

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt

 CFSv2 progs for relative Nino 3.4 trimonthly peak continue to cool significantly as the overall flatness of Nino 3.4 still persists (much longer than earlier progged on the models for 3.4):

Mean of runs Aug 4-13: OND +3.5 (when the progged peak was at a peak)

Mean of runs Aug 14-23: OND back down to +3.25

Mean of runs Aug 24-Sep 2: OND down even further to +3.1! It hasn’t been this low since the 10 day means of late June:

 The updated monthly Euro seasonal forecast as of Sept 1st is due to be released tomorrow.

There was lightning delay/heavy thunderstorm at GT for their game vs Prime Time’s CO Buffaloes. But the storm is already moving out rapidly to the W.

 Go Jackets!