GaWx

1. Based on Corcorahs and radar yesterday, I roughly estimate 0.1” fell at my home yesterday (8/27) thus bringing my location at 7.35” mtd through 8/27.

2. More rain has fallen and is still falling there today. I’ll have to roughly estimate later how much for 8/28. As of now the total for today I’m guessing 0.5” at the very least.

I can’t post the maps because they’re too large for the space allowed here, but comparing today’s 12Z UKMET 120 hour map with the 168 hour map of the 12Z UK of 48 hours ago using Pivotal shows they’re very similar with regard to both with a somewhat healthy Dolly (1007 mb/well organized vs 999 mb on the run from 48 hours ago) recurving and the preliminary low back to being just a weak (1012ish) low that’s not designated a TC and headed toward NE FL.

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

20 hours ago, cptcatz said:

For what it's worth, the 12z CMC shows the remnants reorganizing in the Florida straits and then riding up the east coast of Florida as a formidable tropical storm. If the remnants can stay together, I don't think it's out of question that it can reform closer to the conus. We've seen open waves reorganize plenty of times.

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane.

Thanks for posting this. After a careful look at the 6Z GFS, including the progged vorticity for various levels of the atmosphere, it appears to me like this may be a combo of Dolly’s remnants and additional vorticity similar to the vorticity that the last 4 full UKMET runs have shown off the SE coast developing into a sfc low (TC on last 3 runs).

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NOAA and other agencies maintain both the ONI and RONI. The paper it’s based on developed it more for marginal events like weak La Ninas and El Niños where the WPAC warm pool was extending more influence than the Nina regions. This was not specifically designed for higher end El Niños or La Ninas. 

According to the following link, NOAA has switched to RONI as its official way of reporting ENSO effective 2/1/2026 and not just for weak ENSO despite them still maintaining the ONI dataset:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

RONI is a relative metric to other areas of SST warmth. It’s not a realistic gauge of how strong the actual El Niño event is. Kind of like relative humidity where the dewpoint is a more accurate measure of the moisture content in the atmosphere.

 Chris, are you disputing NOAA? NOAA is saying as I think you must realize that measuring against average overall worldwide tropical ocean warming is a more realistic gauge of the strength of ENSO events. Why else did they convert to relative measures for official measurements? Also, BoM has switched among other organizations.

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

New OLR record for so early in an El Niño as this becomes the strongest east based event for the date.

In recent days, the warming has intensified off the coast of #Ecuador and northern #Perú. It is there that

@enfenperu

measures and assesses #ElNiñoCostero. From an atmospheric and oceanic perspective, OLR values are at historic lows for this time of year in the central and eastern Pacific. This is evidence of coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere. The depth of the warm waters to the west of #Galapagos (the last point where we can compare all events), the volume of warm water clearly exceeds that of 1997, while those of 2015 and 2023 were much smaller. This sheds light on the robustness of the event in the eastern Pacific.

 

 

 I like to remind folks when I read x-posts like this this from Brody Cowing that ignore using RONI types of measures that some of this intensity of warming in the Nino regions is due to GW and not purely due to the strength of the Nino, itself.

 When using relative/RONI records put out by NOAA, it’s clear that Nino 1+2 isn’t currently at record highs:

20AUG1997         3.8        2.6        1.8        0.4

19AUG2026         3.2        2.5        1.8        0.0

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 Chris Martz posted this on the day of the Nepal flooding disaster. I’m not posting this because of agreement with him since I vehemently disagree. The one thing I’ve been most concerned about regarding CC/GW is what to me has to be an obvious direct result from it, melting of ice and the resultant negative consequences.

 How can GW not be a cause or contribution to melting ice? I feel I’m open minded about what CC/GW clearly does or doesn’t cause (an example being global wildfire acreage burnt that I’ve recently been posting about) as well as the idea that there are some significant positive results from it (like fewer hunger related deaths resulting from increased world food supply as well as fewer deaths related to GW since cold has killed many more than heat). Some of my posts do address things like that. Also, I’ve recently even posted about the coldest 80N+ late May through most of the summer since at least 1958 per DMS stats possibly contributing to less melting of Arctic ice area this summer vs recent years. But in the case of melted ice in general, I don’t get the doubt about CC causing it like Chris Martz implies:

@donsutherland1@chubbsand others, any comments?

The 0Z UKMET has a low form in the subtropics well off the SE coast that later either hits or is about to hit the SE US for the 4th run in a row. Wed. 12Z’s low was weak and it was about to hit NE FL at the end (Sept 2nd). Yesterday’s 0Z had a TS about to come into the S portion of the FL E coast on Sept. 3rd. Yesterday’s 12Z UKMET had TCG at hour 108 that initially moved W but then strengthened into a TS that turned NW to hit Charleston on Sept. 3rd.

Today’s 0Z has TCG on Monday (8/31) for the 3rd run in a row with it moving WSW and then making TS status on Tue (9/1). It landfalls on WP Beach on Wed. (9/2) before moving W to the Gulf moving WNW out into the Gulf:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.9N 74.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2026 96 28.9N 74.4W 1013 21
1200UTC 01.09.2026 108 28.2N 75.9W 1012 27
0000UTC 02.09.2026 120 27.0N 77.6W 1008 35
1200UTC 02.09.2026 132 26.5N 79.4W 1006 37
0000UTC 03.09.2026 144 26.9N 81.4W 1004 29
1200UTC 03.09.2026 156 27.6N 83.7W 1003 40
0000UTC 04.09.2026 168 28.6N 86.0W 1001 40

12Z UKMET: rapid WNW move in MDR with no strengthening followed by TS strength outside of MDR and change of move to NW well off the SE US at the end with interaction between Dolly and the TS hitting CHS making it more of a forecast challenge:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.08.2026

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 37.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 0 13.6N 37.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 28.08.2026 12 14.0N 41.3W 1009 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.5N 45.7W 1010 31
0000UTC 29.08.2026 36 15.3N 49.9W 1011 32
1200UTC 29.08.2026 48 16.3N 54.0W 1011 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 60 17.3N 57.7W 1011 33
1200UTC 30.08.2026 72 18.7N 61.0W 1011 35
0000UTC 31.08.2026 84 19.7N 63.4W 1010 32
1200UTC 31.08.2026 96 20.4N 65.8W 1010 34
0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 21.0N 67.5W 1009 32
1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.5N 69.4W 1007 35
0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 21.8N 70.6W 1006 36
1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 22.8N 72.2W 1004 39
0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 23.7N 73.7W 997 42
1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 25.2N 75.3W 992 49

 Keeping in mind that the UKMET was one of the earliest, to consistently predict Dolly with runs doing that going back as far as 7 days fwiw:

The 12Z UKMET has a low form in the subtropics well off the SE coast that later either hits or is about to hit the SE US for the 3rd run in a row. Yesterday’s 12Z’s low was weak and it was about to hit NE FL at the end (Sept 2nd). Today’s 0Z had a TS about to come into the S portion of the FL E coast on Sept. 3rd.

Today’s 12Z UKMET has TCG at hour 108 that initially moves W but then strengthens into a TS that turns NW to hit Charleston on Sept. 3rd:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.8N 74.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 29.8N 74.4W 1013 26
1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 29.8N 74.8W 1011 30
0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 29.5N 75.8W 1009 36
1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 30.3N 77.3W 1008 37
0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 31.4N 78.5W 1004 39
1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 33.1N 80.0W 1001 39

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

Hello, Dolly!

 I didn’t see the radar loop yesterday (8/26) for my area. However, based on radar based rainfall estimates shown by local TV websites and considering Hunter’s 1.27”, I’m roughly estimating my home got a 2nd day in a row of a good hit yesterday with 0.75” (for 8/26). I’m not there to see a measurement. I already very roughly estimated 1.5” the day before (for 8/25).

 That puts my place at ~~7.25” MTD, a very beneficial wetter than normal being there’s still a moderate drought there lingering per the latest Drought Monitor.

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

Here’s the last map of the 12Z UKMET showing the strengthening 96L moving WNW.
 

Aside: I also see a very weak sfc low on those late maps moving W toward NE FL. It’s doing so due to W steering from an H5 594 dm high centered over the well inland SE. I wonder if that weak low is real:

Not only did that preceding low appear on the 0Z UK, it is actually classified a TD on the 0Z at hour 108 in the subtropics and a TS at hour 132 on a WSW track ending not too far offshore E coast of FL on the way to a hit there on Sept 3rd as it is trapped by a strong SE H5 high:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.9N 72.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 108 29.9N 72.3W 1014 25
0000UTC 01.09.2026 120 29.4N 72.3W 1011 30
1200UTC 01.09.2026 132 28.9N 72.4W 1007 35
0000UTC 02.09.2026 144 28.0N 73.7W 1005 37
1200UTC 02.09.2026 156 27.3N 75.6W 1005 38
0000UTC 03.09.2026 168 26.8N 77.3W 1003 37

Meanwhile, 96L is initialized as a TD, which is consistent with its 12Z run. Again, it remains a TD moving rapidly WNW in the MDR with a skimming of the N Leewards. It then becomes a TS but then it misses the SE Bahamas as it turns NW and NNW due to Fujihara around the preceding TS:

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.1N 33.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 0 14.1N 33.5W 1011 29
1200UTC 27.08.2026 12 13.8N 37.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.2N 41.5W 1010 29
1200UTC 28.08.2026 36 14.4N 46.4W 1011 31
0000UTC 29.08.2026 48 15.1N 50.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 29.08.2026 60 16.0N 54.9W 1012 32
0000UTC 30.08.2026 72 16.8N 58.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 30.08.2026 84 18.2N 61.9W 1012 32
0000UTC 31.08.2026 96 19.3N 64.9W 1011 30
1200UTC 31.08.2026 108 20.8N 67.1W 1011 31
0000UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.9N 68.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 01.09.2026 132 22.5N 70.0W 1009 30
0000UTC 02.09.2026 144 23.6N 70.4W 1007 32
1200UTC 02.09.2026 156 25.5N 70.9W 1007 36
0000UTC 03.09.2026 168 27.2N 71.6W 1008 37

@WxWatcher007

 Complications like this fascinate me as they make the forecasting much more difficult, which makes for more interesting forecast discussions.

^More on this: The very strong Nino seasons of 1982 and 1877 only had 1 TC by Aug 26th. 1965 only had 2. And 2026 so far has been a sig. stronger Nino than these 3.

@TheDreamTraveler

51 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Kind of crazy it's almost September and this is how the season has looked so far lol

But not so crazy for a very strong Nino.

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck...

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092623985091494311

Here’s the last map of the 12Z UKMET showing the strengthening 96L moving WNW.
 

Aside: I also see a very weak sfc low on those late maps moving W toward NE FL. It’s doing so due to W steering from an H5 594 dm high centered over the well inland SE. I wonder if that weak low is real:

35 minutes ago, jconsor said:

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck...

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092623985091494311

 The 12Z UKMET, unlike the 0Z, says it is, indeed, a duck as it does develop it and fast! It moved TCG back up 4.5 days back to about when yesterday’s 12Z run had TCG, this evening! Like many runs before the 0Z, it has rapid WNW movement in the MDR while keeping it (mainly) a TD and then strengthens it to TS Dolly about when it leaves the MDR and slows down and later passes just NE of the Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.8N 33.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 12 13.8N 33.6W 1010 27
1200UTC 27.08.2026 24 13.6N 37.9W 1008 31
0000UTC 28.08.2026 36 13.8N 41.6W 1010 30
1200UTC 28.08.2026 48 14.4N 46.3W 1010 32
0000UTC 29.08.2026 60 15.0N 50.5W 1011 29
1200UTC 29.08.2026 72 16.4N 54.4W 1011 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 84 17.5N 58.3W 1011 32
1200UTC 30.08.2026 96 18.6N 61.7W 1011 33
0000UTC 31.08.2026 108 19.5N 63.9W 1010 32
1200UTC 31.08.2026 120 20.5N 66.3W 1009 40
0000UTC 01.09.2026 132 21.6N 67.9W 1008 43
1200UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.3N 69.7W 1007 42
0000UTC 02.09.2026 156 23.2N 71.1W 1002 43
1200UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.5N 73.3W 999 42

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I would imagine that is not good for east cost snow lovers?

I don’t know if it would matter for the NE US, but I don’t see evidence that a rapid collapse in itself would necessarily hurt.

2 hours ago, kgottwald said:

Wonder if we can eke out a year without a single Atlantic hurricane! That'd be pretty exciting.

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think that’ll be very hard as climo is still climo, but at this rate it’s on the board. 

It is quite wild that Dolly is the next named storm as has been said. It’s virtually impossible based on history and I realize we still could get her within a few days from Invest 96L, but what if the rest of the season were to be so amazingly quiet that we end up not even getting to Dolly?

58 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Didn't the CFS forecast the El Nino to collapse as we enter winter?

Yes the CFS has been forecasting a rapid collapse starting as we go through especially the 2nd half of Dec. But it hadn’t earlier forecasted that most of August would be this flat.

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure I see/agree there's much evidence that this ENSO isn't going to heat up more.  

There’s no evidence that this Nino won’t heat up more. I don’t think anyone said that here. If they did, I would have said they were wrong. I expect a resumption of solid warming shortly. But there’s plenty of evidence that it likely won’t heat up as much as the really wildly strong models have/had been showing because of the nearly flat most of August vs the model consensus having progged another sharp warning in Aug similar to July. They’ve been way off this month.

 Early this evening here in the overall still very dry CO high country I saw this at a distance down the road I was taking a leisurely walk on, a first for me to see in the wild anywhere! The drought is so bad here that their natural food supply of berries, etc, is way below normal! This was surrealistic:

0Z UKMET delays transition to a TD for 4 days vs the 12Z run but still has it taking a similar path and gets to a TS quickly as it moves WNW a little NE of the Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 20.3N 67.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 132 21.0N 68.5W 1011 32
0000UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.4N 70.3W 1009 38
1200UTC 01.09.2026 156 23.0N 71.7W 1006 43
0000UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.1N 73.4W 1002 39

9 hours ago, wncsnow said:

A true southern belle who truly cared about those who struggled and did so much for them unlike our corrupt government

I don’t recall ever hearing/reading even one bad word about Dolly. Never! How many public figures can you say that about in our lifetimes?