GaWx

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I understand how this stuff is to be interpreted.  

I'm looking at the particulars of the synoptic parameters spanning those 4 days.   Thu and Fri in particular are much warmer than normal.  not -1   ...more like +15 off of the last two consec runs of the GFS operational.  

570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way.  I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long.  We can definitely still get it done.  

 

Thanks.

1. I understand and perhaps this will bust too cool. We’ll see.

2. Let’s see if today’s update is warmer.

2. You may have not seen my edit:

 “Keep in mind that this was based on yesterday’s 0Z Euro ens (the latest Euro Weeklies output available til after 4PM EDT today).”

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That seems diametrical to the current operation guidance,   CMC/GFS/EURO     All three have 564 to 570+ hydrostatic heights, with W to SW/NW off shore components, Wed thru Sat.  

Now ...this may differ from ens mean/bulk signaling and telecon indexes therefrom, et al... not sure, haven't checked. But, the operational runs are warmer than just mild those 4 days as of these last 00z guidance

John,

 Keep in mind that this was based on yesterday’s 0Z Euro ens (the latest Euro Weeklies output available til after 4PM EDT today), the 2nd shade of blue is -1 to -3C (so much of it for 9/28-10/3 could conceivably be closer to the -1C boundary), and this product uses a warmer climo base than most, the last 20 years:

• re-forecasts are derived by re-running an 11-member ensemble (1 control and 10 perturbed members) using the same calendar start date for each of the last 20 years.

*Edited

 It’s looking pretty chilly in the E 1/2 of the U.S. next week (this is for Sep 28th-Oct 3rd):

The MJO continues to avoid both the IO and the MC for a duration unlike any in recorded history:

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

00z HRRR shows the E Coast low taking on more ST characterists 40-48 hr as a inner core contracted wind field develops.  RRFS it take over 24 hr longer to do this.

 

27 minutes ago, jconsor said:

All of the NJ coast up to Monmouth County (e.g. NWS Mount Holly's territory) is under a High Wind warning:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=high wind warning

The 0Z Euro ens increased the chance of “tropical cyclone activity” off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the weekend to its highest yet of any run and the highest possible, >90%! Yesterday it wasn’t as high for the weekend as it was peaking at ~80%.

0Z UKMET Nolo: still stays significantly S of Big Island but 9/30+ again turns NE to not too far S of Big Island:

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 156.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 14.9N 156.1W 990 46
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 15.6N 155.8W 985 57
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 15.9N 155.0W 983 65
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 15.9N 154.4W 985 55
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 15.3N 154.7W 985 50
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 14.2N 155.4W 988 42
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 13.4N 156.4W 989 41
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 13.5N 157.5W 988 43
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 14.0N 158.6W 984 51
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 14.7N 159.1W 982 56
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 15.5N 158.6W 977 60
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 16.1N 157.3W 975 61
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 16.5N 155.8W 983 54
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 17.0N 154.7W 989 52
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 17.6N 154.3W 995 42

0Z UKMET: Fay still around at 168 moving NW:

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 41.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 30.0N 41.9W 1014 26
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 30.1N 42.8W 1014 31
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 30.0N 43.8W 1014 30
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 30.1N 44.6W 1014 27
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 30.1N 44.8W 1015 23
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 29.9N 44.9W 1015 23
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 29.6N 44.9W 1016 22
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 28.7N 45.3W 1015 22
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 27.7N 46.1W 1014 22
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 26.8N 47.2W 1012 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 26.2N 48.5W 1012 26
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 26.1N 50.1W 1011 26
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 26.3N 51.5W 1012 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 27.2N 52.3W 1011 30
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 28.1N 52.9W 1010 32

 I took my first evening walk at the park of the season in lieu of the treadmill as a result of the cool and windy weather thanks to the strong wedge. It was only in the mid 60s along with winds gusting as high as ~25 mph. Due to dewpoints of 60, the RH was high. But the wind combined with the coolness made it feel great! Also, there was intermittent drizzle, which was unexpected and made it feel even cooler.

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If it wasn’t for the stable environment surrounding Fay now we’d have a mid latitude microcane. Decent looking system on visible but very clearly limited by dry air surrounding it 

Check out the 12Z UKMET: gets her all the way to 23.7N, 56.4W and still moving WSW not too far N of the MDR:

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 41.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2026 0 30.0N 41.2W 1014 28
0000UTC 25.09.2026 12 30.2N 42.1W 1015 25
1200UTC 25.09.2026 24 30.3N 43.1W 1015 27
0000UTC 26.09.2026 36 30.3N 43.7W 1015 25
1200UTC 26.09.2026 48 30.2N 44.4W 1014 26
0000UTC 27.09.2026 60 30.2N 44.8W 1016 21
1200UTC 27.09.2026 72 30.1N 44.8W 1015 22
0000UTC 28.09.2026 84 29.8N 44.6W 1016 20
1200UTC 28.09.2026 96 28.6N 44.9W 1016 22
0000UTC 29.09.2026 108 27.4N 46.0W 1014 23
1200UTC 29.09.2026 120 26.2N 47.6W 1013 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 132 24.9N 49.6W 1012 26
1200UTC 30.09.2026 144 24.2N 52.0W 1011 29
0000UTC 01.10.2026 156 23.8N 54.3W 1011 27
1200UTC 01.10.2026 168 23.7N 56.4W 1012 27

This is for Nolo, which is a threat to the Big Island of Hawaii:

000
WTPA42 PHFO 241450
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026

Satellite images indicate that Nolo is gradually becoming better
organized, with very deep convection in a curved band on the
southern and western side of the circulation. Additionally, a GPM
pass from overnight indicated that an inner core is forming,
although the eastern side is fragmented. Intensity estimates are
rising, and the current wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of
the lower subjective and higher objective values.

Nolo has not moved much during the last several hours but should
begin to move northward and north-northeastward later today due to
a mid-latitude trough dropping over the northwestern Hawaiian
Islands. The trough is forecast to move westward by Saturday with
a building ridge north of the main Hawaiian Islands, causing a
sharp westward turn this weekend. The big question is how close
does Nolo get before making that turn, with notable run-to-run
inconsistencies in much of the guidance. Similar to the last
cycle, the bulk of the models have shifted slightly northward, and
the new NHC forecast is moved in that direction. This remains a 
more uncertain forecast than normal given the large unresolved
north-south spread, with other possible complicating terrain 
influences of the Big Island (like we saw with Hurricane Lala last 
month). Therefore, the long-range portion of the forecast is 
essentially unchanged.

With the formation of an inner core, conditions appear to be coming
together for rapid intensification given the other conducive
environmental factors of warm SSTs, low shear and high mid-level
moisture. Nolo is likely to become a hurricane by tonight and 
reach major hurricane strength as it nears the Big Island on 
Saturday. The new forecast is raised from the previous one, just 
below the HCCA aid, which has done well this year in these 
strengthening episodes. Note that a track closer to the Big Island 
could substantially increase the threat of damaging winds, 
particularly over higher terrain, along exposed ridges, and in areas 
downwind of the ridges.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.9N 156.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.2N 156.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.1N 155.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.1N 155.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.8N 155.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 18.0N 156.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.1N 158.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 19.0N 162.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.6N 164.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Not only has Fay come back from the dead, for now, at least, a small ULAC has positoned right over top of the system. Shear has dropped significantly. The TC is embedded in a rather dry environment. As the NHC noted in their discussion, this may prevent any significant intensification. Despite the less than ideal moisture environment, convection has managed to blossom this morning. Might we get a surprise? It has an established vortex and 36-48 hours to play with before shear reinvades.

From NHC:

Resilient Fay has strengthened this morning. Deep convective
curved bands have developed both on the west and east sides of the
cyclone, and a small cold cloud top deep burst of convection is
persisting over the surface center. Based on the improved cloud
pattern and an increase in the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimated from TAFB, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

Fay remains over warm ocean waters and a favorable upper-level wind
environment. Only a relatively stable, dry surrounding atmosphere
is preventing Fay from strengthening significantly. By the weekend,
deep-layer shear is expected to increase, which should induce a
weakening trend. Subsequently, Fay is forecast to degenerate into 
a remnant low.

Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/5 kt.
This general motion should continue with a slight reduction
in forward speed through dissipation on Sunday. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the
skilled HFIP HCCA and GDMI TC ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 29.8N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 29.8N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 29.7N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 29.6N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 29.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 29.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No. This is a nasty nor’easter. It reminds me of March 2010, if you’re old enough to remember that one.

When was the comparable last nasty cold core nor’easter that occurred in your area as early as late Sept? The ones I recall off the top of my head for your area waited at least til Oct and were mainly in the latter half of Oct to boot.

*Fwiw* recent 3 day (12 run) CFSv2 runs for Feb have been cooling back down again. The coldest I’ve seen was the very cold Aug 7-9th mean. The warmest was the recently posted Sep 16-18th mean. The newest (Sep 21-23rd) is right in between those:

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It will have some tropical characteristics, but it’s generated from baroclinic forcing. There might appear to be an eye, but that’s just dry air near the center. It’s a typical nor’easter that’s being enhanced because of warm SST and proximity to the Gulf Stream. So while it might look like a tropical storm the physics behind it are far different. 

Thanks. Do you see it having a chance to transition from cold core, which we all agree it will start as, to ST status?

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

 

 

 

 Then the NHC should be adding it to its TWOs since those address the chance for both T and ST development. Adding it to its TWOs has been suggested by both JB and @vortex95

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s not warm core and anyone that says it is is just hyping. Warm core cyclones don’t behave like this. 

This from the 0Z Euro suite per pro met@vortex95shows a 70-80% chance for tropical development! How do you explain this?

0Z UKMET goes NNE to eastern end of LI and then into SE New England while weakening substantially Mon-Tue

55 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

He’s a tool. The reason it weakens is because it  becomes vertically stacked and occludes, because it’s cold core. Tropical systems don’t weaken when they become stacked.

Thanks. But how do you explain a 1000/500 mb thickness max of >576 dm and 700 mb height max both at the center if it is cold core? That almost has to be warm core.

 Joe Bastardi, who I often don’t agree with, continues to insist this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it thus should be named. He says the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving it a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm (well above 79F) due largely to GW.

 Per JB, evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, he posted the Euro having a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this projected weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. He said tides may go as high as 3-6 feet AN at NYC!

 Does anyone here recall a purely cold-core nor’easter in this region this early in the fall? Aren’t those usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm?

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Concerning the E Coast storm development and possible ST development...

I wanted to share my thoughts and throw this out there for food for thought.
 

Sometimes in forecast meteorology you have to think proactively in the abstract at time for those potential outlier events, otherwise you can get "caught behind the 8-ball," playing catch-up and making excuses.  This current E Coast storm situation reminds me a bit of Sandy's situation, except reversed!  A non-tropical low possibly becoming ST near the E Coast and how can it be handled.

I may be reaching a bit here, but I think this particular storm situation warrants some added attention.

ECMWF and UKMET suggest ST transition is possible off the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast.  Clear warm core to 500 and SSTs easily are in range.  Phase diagrams show a fairly good symmetric warm core.

NHC does not even mention it on the 7-day TWO?  I find this a bit odd.  Many, many times they will put in something even if the slightest chance ST development for systems like this.  Just b/c it is close to the coast and may cause confusing in messaging is irrelevant to the met science!   It is what it is.  You can't pick and choose.  Yes, I know it not so simple as to how things work overall, but that does not make me wrong in this context.

In this age of social media, do you want ppl calling you out as to "this thing is clearly ST, and yet nothing from NHC".  Not good PR.   It is even more precarious in this case.  Why?, I can not recall a nor'easter this strong for the E Coast in Sep, so SSTs are near climo peak, and they are 2-4 C  above avg S of New England.  Extraordinary/outlier patterns can lead to extraordinary/outlier events, and we have the knowledge/skill to fcst such much better now, and so should use it.

I've seen NHC highlight baroclinic areas in the subtropical EPAC  that have no chance of development and given it 0/0,  and also in the Atlantic many times, so again, don't tell me there is not anything here to outlook.  If anything, it is more important due to proximity to the coast.

Thoughts?

 As I posted above, JB is insisting this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it should be named. He agrees with you that the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm due largely to GW.

 More evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, the Euro has a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. You mentioned that you don’t recall a nor’easter like this in Sept. I don’t either. They’re usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm. He said tides may go to 3-6 feet AN! 

30 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Lamest Hurricane season ever.

I am ok with that given that last decade.

“Lame” is good for us SE folks, especially those of us with elderly loved ones. Many in the SE US, even well inland, have had a very rough 2016-24. I was heavily affected by 5 storms. I’ll always take the very rare quiet season over that, especially because it will likely not be quiet next year.

22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NYHOPS 12z/23 ensemble for Sandy Hook edges into Major. idea is not to park your car where it can sand blased-flooded-tree branch damage. 

Walt,

 My nephew has a trip planned to NYC for Thu-Sun. I don’t know where he’ll be staying, where he’ll be going, and whether or not he’ll be that close to water (probably not). I’d like your opinion. Is the risk for major disruptions in NYC high enough to make you feel he should consider postponing this trip? Or should he still go there? Thanks.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

almost no rain though lol

Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city?