Live coverage of Screven Cty, GA, and now Allendale Cty, SC, tornado!

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Confirmed tornado otg now over Captolo

The 1st pic of this tornado was posted way back at 2:33PM, 100 minutes ago! This is going to go down into history for that reason alone. Damage is 200 yards wide!

0327 PM TORNADO 2 NW NEWINGTON 32.61N 81.52W 
10/10/2026 SCREVEN GA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE 

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER POLES DOWNED NEAR OLD SAVANNAH 
HWY AND HWY 21 LIKELY DUE TO TORNADO. DAMAGE WAS 
ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 200 YARDS WIDE.

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wow it’s now PDS. Large and dangerous tornado on the ground 

The 1st pic of this tornado was posted way back at 2:33PM, 100 minutes ago! This is going to go down into history for that reason alone. Damage 200 yards wide!


0327 PM TORNADO 2 NW NEWINGTON 32.61N 81.52W 
10/10/2026 SCREVEN GA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE 

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER POLES DOWNED NEAR OLD SAVANNAH 
HWY AND HWY 21 LIKELY DUE TO TORNADO. DAMAGE WAS 
ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 200 YARDS WIDE.

58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wow it’s now PDS. Large and dangerous tornado on the ground 

Very serious, longtracked (been going 1 hour+!!) violent tornado moving N at 25 toward Allendale Cty of SC:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED 
TORNADO WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 
340 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... 
SCREVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... 
ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... 

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT. 

* AT 340 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
HUNTERS, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS 
LIKELY. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... 
BURTONS FERRY LANDING AND MILBURY.

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Confirmed tornado otg now over Captolo

Very serious, longtracked (been going 1 hour+!!) violent tornado moving N at 25 toward Allendale Cty of SC:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED 
TORNADO WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 
340 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... 
SCREVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... 
ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... 

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT. 

* AT 340 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
HUNTERS, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS 
LIKELY. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... 
BURTONS FERRY LANDING AND MILBURY.

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

2 likely tornadoes otg NW of Savannah per radar. TOR threat ramping up with discrete supercells now developing 

 
 The dewpoints here are way up in the high 70s, something very rare this late into fall. That with the 86 temp gives a heat index way up at 99-100 on Oct 10th! It feels awful! The shift from E to SE winds allowed this:

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS 
SAVANNAH ARPT PTSUNNY 87 77 72 S17G28 29.95F HX 99

HUNTER AFB MOSUNNY 86 79 79 SE17 29.92F HX 99TC 30

 Wind gusts have picked back up with the increasing sunshine and winds at 5K feet being 30 knots (cumulus clouds are hauling) from the S along with strong SW winds at H5+ are setting up a potential for severe thunderstorms in this general area later this afternoon/eve.

*I’ve received 0.75” so far from Isaias’ influence.*

  I just went outside and it felt like a midsummer steam bath! Then I saw that dewpoints are way up in the high 70s, something very rare this late into fall. That with the 86 temp gives a heat index way up at 99-100 on Oct 10th! The shift from E to SE winds allowed this:

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS 
SAVANNAH ARPT PTSUNNY 87 77 72 S17G28 29.95F HX 99


HUNTER AFB MOSUNNY 86 79 79 SE17 29.92F HX 99

 Wind gusts have picked back up with the increasing sunshine and winds at 5K feet being 30 knots (cumulus clouds are hauling) from the S along with strong SW winds at H5+ thus setting up a potential for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon/eve. The severe risk is only “slight”, but I don’t even recall that here anytime recently:

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strong forecast.

https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/hurricane-isaias-landfall-accurately-forecast/

 

 

Hurricane Isaias Landfall Accurately Forecast

Timing Slightly too Slow

The center of the rapidly degrading eye of Hurricane Isaias crossed the coast near Destin, FL with 105MPH maximum sustained winds at about 930PM EDT. 

 

 

This was precisely as forecast in the Final Call issued this afternoon in terms of landfall locale and intensity, but the timing was about 1.5 hours faster than 11PM EDT forecast. Although the landfall intensity needed to be adjusted upwards slightly in the Final Call issued earlier today, the Destin, FL locale was consistent since First Call on Wednesday.

 

 

 

Final Grade: A

 

Fantastic forecast, Ray, that was spot on other than being slightly too slow!

51 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Regardless of strength (I’ve seen Andrew & Michael up close). Unless you have boots on the ground you don’t realize the amount of damage even a storm of this strength can cause. My thoughts are with the many people who are dealing with issues big or small. I can tell you the Emerald Coast got smacked by this. Glass half full thoughts, are the shear and dry air saved us from what could’ve been a monster!


.

I’m glad the expected last minute weakening verified well saving from a MH landfall, but realize getting cat 1-2 H effects is of course still a big impactful event (I know first hand).
 

 Interestingly per Dr. Knabb, that same strong shear that caused the dramatic weakening just before landfall actually caused the worst of the thunderstorms/wind gusts (solid cat 2 gusts) to be in your area in the NW eyewall (where Stephanie Abrams great coverage was). It’s almost as if the NW eyewall weakening lagged behind. She said she had never seen so much lightning in an eyewall, which typically has limited lightning due to the upper atmosphere being too warm for as much ice in the clouds vs typically much more lightning in outer bands as Dr. Knabb explained.

 I thought TWC coverage was excellent between her, Cantore showing storm surge and sudden shift to warming S winds off Gulf in E eyewall, and Dr. Knabb.

Due to the pressure gradient between Isaias’ remnants and the wedge, along with sig. ongoing rain, together with a secondary astronomical tidal max due to the new moon, the NE winds were long and strong enough to produce moderate coastal flooding in CHS and minor S of there to Ft. Pulaski.

0842 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W 
10/10/2026 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL 

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.76 FT MLLW (2.00 FT MHHW) WAS 
OBSERVED AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. MODERATE 
COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE COASTS OF 
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 
7.5 FT MLLW (1.74 FT MHHW) IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

In my area overnight, we got some beneficial rainfall from rapidly N moving scattered convection. Per Cocorahs, there was ~0.75” in the area. I’ll check my gauge later. Winds were brisk but no big deal as expected (highest gusts low 20s).

Sun is peaking through. The sun will eventually lead to sig. instability, which will fuel scattered or bands of tstorms this afternoon, some of which could be severe with a couple of tornadoes possible.

Per this chaser who was right in the eye, the lowest SLP was 976.2 mb:

https://twitter.com/JustonStrmRider/status/2108736015250702614?

What was the actual lowest SLP at landfall ?

-Lowest Destin SLP was at 8:20PM CDT per this link at ~982 mb (28.99” altimeter setting):

-As this shows, winds were NNE at landfall time at Destin. That says landfall was just E of Destin.

-Per Dr. Knabb per Cantore’s report of winds shifting to S off the Gulf at Miramar Beach before and during landfall time says landfall was just W of Miramar Beach.

-There are 8 miles between those 2 locales. Thus, a good estimate is that landfall was 4 miles E of Destin.

-How much lower than Destin’s 982 mb would SLP be 4 miles to the E? Anyone have a guess as to the gradient over those 4 miles W of the center?

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
900 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IMPACTING THE GULF COAST AS 
DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND...
...900 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

NWS Doppler Radar data and surface observations indicate that 
Hurricane Isaias now has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (160 
km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 978 mb (28.88 
inches).

A NOAA National Ocean Service station in Panama City Beach, Florida, 
recently reported a wind gust to 83 mph (134 km/h) and a sustained 
wind of 72 mph (116 km/h).

This will be the final hourly position update for Isaias. The next 
full forecast advisory for Isaias will be issued at 1000 PM CDT 
(0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 86.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
830 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

...ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DESTIN FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IMPACTING THE GULF COAST AS 
DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND...

NWS Doppler Radar data indicate that Hurricane Isaias made landfall 
near Destin, Florida, around 830 PM CDT (0130 UTC) with maximum 
sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). The estimated minimum central 
pressure is 971 mb (28.67 inches).

A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge in Panama City 
Beach, Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.6 feet above 
mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in 
that area. 

A wind gust to 116 mph (187 km/h) with a sustained wind of 91 mph 
(146 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station near Santa 
Rosa Sound, Florida. A wind gust to 100 mph (161 km/h) with a 
sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently reported at a 
WeatherSTEM station near Pensacola, Florida. 


SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 86.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

Landfall Destin officially just now.

Check this out as of 9PM EDT at Destin with center just offshore likely just to their SE based on NE wind:

DESTIN LGT RAIN 71 70 96 NE39G67  29.08 FOG

That’s 984 mb.

Per Dr. Knabb: The strongest winds are currently on the NW-W side of the center due to how the strong southerly wind shear is interacting. Interesting.

Josh just posted from Okaloosa Island, FL:

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1515937730580171&id=iCyclone

New JMA H5 winter maps from NE forum post: this is what it appears to me that the maps are showing

DJF: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

Dec: slight +PNA, ~neutral EPO, slight -AO to neutral AO, slight +NAO

Jan: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO

Does anyone disagree with my opinion on what these maps are showing for these indices?

 The last 10 days of the PDO have had a decent rise overall though nothing extreme:

8 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

One thing I do like is stating "tropical storm conditions possible."  Yet the actual forecast is for 15 to 25 mph *sustained* winds.  That is well below the threshold.  Last I checked, tropical conditions are sustained 39 mph or more.  So there is hedging here is excessive IMHO.   Gusts to TS force are not the same as sustained TS force.  They are conflating things.  I see this a lot.

And really, how often does TCL and esp. ATL, get sustained winds of 39 mph or more?  It is practically unheard of.  So climo comes into play here.  It would have to be an exceptional event for such winds, but Isaias as a hurricane and going ET are not by all forecasts.   This is not like Helene from 2 years ago.

Just b/c something has a non-zero chance of occurring does not mean you explicitly mention it in a forecast.  Once again, hedging and inflating reasonable risk.  Wording matters as to how ppl will react, and then you get into the issue of things being cancelled and shutdown *way* too much for a run-of-the-mill event.

Also, Isaias will no longer be a TC by the time ATL gets sig impact, and perhaps even TCL. so their wording is incorrect.  They should be saying "gale force winds", not tropical storm conditions. 

This is a slippery slope.  Almost every winter storm on the E Coast has winds of TS strength, but you do not call them tropical storm winds!

They should be headlining a wind advisory or high wind warning, not mentioning tropical in this case
for TCL and ATL.
 

Thanks.
Whereas for TCL they’ve got a TS warning, they didn’t ever predict TS conditions for ATL. Instead they have a high wind warning:

20 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

That's a good point.  TIMING is everything!  But I see far too often a wx event is taken as "all day" and so events that will clearly be before or after  sig storm impacts are done and do not be to be cancelled.  I mean, you now get *indoor* events cancelled for just some typical wind and rain now.  Really?

We can fine-tune forecasts better than ever now w/ models like the HRRR, RRFS, and HAFS, so we do not have to just issue a generic, blanket forecast. esp for the short-range.  Having this capability saves an enormous amount of $$ and allows business and commerce to function better.

It reminds me of something years ago.  One evening, I went out to get pizza, and when I picked up my order, the person said "it's been slow tonight b/c of snow forecast!"  You know what the forecast was?  1-3" of snow starting *after* midnight.  So my previous posits about business and commerce being impacts is valid, and it hurts revenue for many businesses, big and small.  You see how incessant hype and not quantifying risks/threats  properly are detrimental to society.

Cancellation of a major sport event is non-trivial as to costs, and it goes far beyond just that single event.  They have to reschedule and that has downstream impacts often to the entire league.
I often ask myself, what if the SB was in MSY or MIA, and there was a MDT or HIGH risk for svr wx for that day?  I would not want to be the one to make the decision!  In this case, the ante is extremely high on both sides!  Actually, I do recall a case like this.  In 2004, the Indy 500 was held despite a HIGH risk svr and a sig tor outbreak was likely.  And when the event was over and people were leaving the area, there were tornadoes occurring in the IND area not more than 5 mi away!
 

 
 The main issue some of us have is the double standard of concern in Tuscaloosa vs virtually no concern in ATL (at least earlier…maybe this will change). The forecasted conditions for during the GT/Duke game in ATL Sat. afternoon are far worse than those for even the tailgating period (6 hrs before kickoff) in Tuscaloosa. Furthermore, the forecast for ATL is actually quite a big deal, which along with thunderstorm chances has a high wind warning and thus would be far worse than the typical breeziness of a Miller A:

3 hours ago, sakau2007 said:

i respectfully disagree with you. the 3 games i am aware of closest to the storm's impacts are Georgia/Alabama in Tuscaloosa (storm will be effectively over by kickoff), Georgia Tech/Duke in Atlanta (breezy and rainy, but no big deal in the whole scheme of things) and Vanderbilt/Ole Miss in Nashville (similar to Atlanta, with probably less overall impact, and less tornado threat).
 

 
 The point some of us have been making is the double standard being applied regarding the concern for the attendees in Tuscaloosa vs that for those in Atlanta:

 Tuscaloosa: SATURDAY  
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS, COOLER  
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO  
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

Atlanta: SATURDAY  
SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY  
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

—————

 As one can see, the forecast is actually much worse for the afternoon gametime in ATL for Duke/GT than it is not just for the evening gametime in Tuscaloosa but even during the tailgating time in Tuscaloosa well before the game even starts!

 So, gusts to 50 with possible thunderstorms/heavy rain and even a slight chance for a tornado in ATL for the game itself vs gusts only to 30, much lighter rain, and no thunderstorms in Tuscaloosa during the entire PM tailgating period well before the game even starts!

 @PhiEaglesfan712@vortex95

12 hours ago, cardinalland said:

The hurricane was declared as such at 11:30pm eastern on 10/7 after a Hurricane Hunters pass. So it’s a little dicey.

 

Of course there’s a good chance 1905 had a hurricane earlier in their season that we didn’t detect

For those who didn’t realize it, 1905’s very late 1st on record H was similarly powerful to Isaias with it peaking as a MH (cat 3) and that was also during El Niño.

*Edited: it was not the last storm of the season at genesis but was when it degenerated below TC status at its end.