GaWx

 During the last 90 days, 86 of them were in MJO phases 6, 7, 8, or 1! The other 4 were only barely into phase 5 (inside circle) and since records started in 1974 there’s no instance of a 90 day period with >95% of the days in either the WPAC or the W Hem/Africa:

 

 The closest is 7/25/15-10/22/15, which had 81 of the 90 days (90%) in 6-7-8-1:

^12Z UKMET has TCG 30 hours later than last run and 54 hours later than the 2 runs prior to the last one. This run has only a TD moving WNW at 27 mph before then dissipating:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.7N 38.8W
12Z UKMET:

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 120 11.7N 38.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 28.08.2026 132 13.5N 43.3W 1011 27
1200UTC 28.08.2026 144 14.1N 48.2W 1011 30
0000UTC 29.08.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

And then there’s Joe Bastardi mispronouncing Lala like Eric Clapton’s “Layla” 

 I just saw this video of a bear dodging a vehicle on I-70 before then running into the side of another vehicle on the adjacent surface street near W Vail 4 days ago! There also were 2 bear sightings in my immediate vicinity near W Vail the last 36 hours, including one right outside of a restaurant I was eating at at the time (I didn’t see it myself)! When I left the restaurant, I wasn’t scared but was extra vigilant!

The horrible drought is causing them to be searching for alternative food sources. This area has had spotty but impressive looking monsoonal convection during mid to late afternoon developing over the highest peaks. Little rainfall has reached the ground, however. The good news is that increased rainfall is expected this weekend:

https://www.9news.com/video/life/animals/bear-runs-into-vehicle-after-crossing-i-70-near-vail/73-4bdfb8f4-5654-42b6-b936-1fae9b44bbc7

———————

Also, this was posted on Facebook yesterday about a bear scratching someone in nearby Eagle-Vail while leaving an apt laundry room:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1073439545137674&vanity=imfromdenver&hpir=1

——————

4 bear attacks in August in NW CO!

Colorado’s High Country sees 4 black bear attacks in August as bear activity sets records amid drought
Typically rare, northwest Colorado has had four reported attacks in Aspen, Snowmass, Steamboat Springs and EagleVail

https://www.vaildaily.com/news/colorado-high-country-black-bear-attacks-drought/

^The African wave made it onto the 8PM TWO as a lemon. 

0Z UKMET: TCG delayed 24 hrs vs prior 2 runs. Again becomes a TS (delayed 12 hrs) that remains low end moving a million mph WNW in MDR:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.7N 28.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2026 108 11.4N 30.4W 1008 30
0000UTC 27.08.2026 120 11.9N 34.6W 1007 33
1200UTC 27.08.2026 132 11.8N 38.7W 1005 36
0000UTC 28.08.2026 144 12.6N 43.0W 1006 37
1200UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 47.5W 1006 37
0000UTC 29.08.2026 168 14.7N 52.3W 1007 39

 Regarding the AEW progged to come off Africa 8/24-5, the 12Z GFS/Euro AI are weak, especially Euro, and have it go in or near the Leewards Aug 31st.

 The reg. Euro has had this as a TC since way back on the 12Z 8/15 run.

The 12Z Euro has it, but early on it is the weakest run for it well out in the MDR since 0Z 8/17 run. Keep in mind, however, that weaker could ultimately prove more dangerous for the W basin nearby land areas as strong runs have mostly been recurving safely as regards the Conus. Note that late in the run it is pretty far W (73W) and actually strengthens into a MH as it recurves not too far from the E coast.

The model consensus has this moving at 20+ mph WNW in the MDR to the SSW of a strong E ATL high. That may be a reason models are keeping this rather weak out in that area.

This is still not on the TWO. But they may change soon.

 It looks like there are now two super Nino banter threads. Can these be merged?

 KSAV highs last 4 days: 99, 99, 99, 100. Glad I’ve been away from there the last couple of days!

^1) The 12Z UKMET still has the TS in the subtropical region.

2) The 12Z UKMET still has a TS in the MDR moving rapidly WNW (22-25 mph) after TCG early next week:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.7N 21.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 12.2N 22.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 12.9N 25.9W 1009 29
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 12.8N 29.9W 1007 31
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 12.9N 34.3W 1005 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 38.5W 1002 37
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 42.5W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.5N 47.1W 1006 39

 The 10 day/40 run CFSv2 mean for Feb has gone from this near coldest on record of CFSv2 forecasts from SE to C Plains and cold overall much of US (Aug 7-16 runs):

To this just 4 days later (Aug 11-20 runs): still cold esp SE to S Plains but not nearly as cold there with 2-5F BN instead of 5-8F BN and also not as cold most other areas of the C to E US:

I figured that because I posted the extremely cold maps that I need to post those not as cold in the spirit of objectivity as opposed to just posting the runs I like the most.

I’ll continue to follow because it’s fun/interesting even though the CFSv2 forecast value is quite limited for 6 months out (more for entertainment).

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 The SE drought would be largely history should this realistic wetness (based on analogs) verify well.

0Z UKMET has 2 ATL TSs:

-it has a TS form in the MDR early next week that then moves WNW:

————

-It has a TS form in the subtropical region:

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 29.9N 58.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 60 30.4N 59.0W 1015 25
0000UTC 24.08.2026 72 31.2N 59.5W 1015 28
1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 32.6N 60.2W 1013 33
0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.9N 59.6W 1012 30
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 37.7N 58.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 41.7N 55.6W 1003 44
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 46.8N 50.7W 1000 43
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 51.0N 42.4W 999 40
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 53.5N 34.1W 996 33
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 POST-TROPICAL

 Today, I drove S to the fabulous Red Rocks Park/Ampitheatre and spent 2 hours there, another place almost beyond description. It was ~87 there and sunny/low RH.

 Next I went to Golden, which had similar wx to walk along Washington Ave and then Clear Creek watching the tubers/bathers enjoying the cold water. I ate at a delish W themed pizza joint. 

 Late this afternoon I took I-70 through the Eisenhower Tunnel, where it dropped to 65, to Vail, where it was ~69 when I arrived.  Their high was 89, 10 AN. Vail is under extreme drought conditions. 
 

 Edit: early afternoon: Friday is looking similarly well AN in Vail and vicinity.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And here I eas thinking we were going the opposite way with the perpetual nina we've had...I mean one double nina and one triple dip in the last 6 years has just been dumb, lol

The average 3.4 SSTa adjusted for GW has leaned significantly toward La Niña the last 20 years with an avg anomaly of -0.3C.

19 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

Are you here on vacation?  I live just outside of Estes Park, and Trail Ridge Road is really special.  For an added experience, you can go up a one way road (Old Fall River Road) that exits at the Alpine Visitor Center at the top.  You then take TRR back down.  I have seen snow falling at the top in both July and August many times.  Not much but enough to remind you just how high up you are.

1. Yes

2. I went from the beautiful Estes Park to Rock Cut (where I walked a bit) and then turned around. On the way back at Forest Canyon, I walked the entire paved path and checked out all of the amazing views. I also stopped at most of the pullovers on each side going and coming back. On the way down, I walked a short dirt path to a beautiful meadow with a tiny stream surrounded by wildflowers. Very peaceful with nobody nearby! (I can’t post because pics are way too large for the attachment limits here.) I spent a total of ~3 hours inside the park.

2. Thanks! Next time I may try Old Fall River Road. How does it compare to TRR safety wise? Even though I loved driving TRR and was very careful, I admit slight feelings of danger on the many parts with a steep drop right off the edge!

@mayjawintastawm

 I’ve been enjoying seeing and experiencing some monsoon convection since I arrived in CO. Saw some good ones on the way to and inside the awesome Rocky Mtn State Park. Trail Ridge Road is so spectacular that it’s almost beyond words. It went from 80s in Boulder to as cold as 53 at 11,500-12,000 feet up! It was cold enough there for a light jacket, especially when considering the steady winds up there.

 The Arctic sea ice area has fallen back to near the 2013-24 mean:

 Perhaps this is partially related to the temps at 80+N finally rising to NN recently:

The latest few CFSv2 4 day means have reduced the Feb cold in the SE substantially:

 Compare that to how cold it was on the 4 day mean just 2.5 days prior:

6 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Will Lala make the rare crossing of the international date line, and get a new name?

If Lala were to get a new name, maybe it will be Tinky Winky, Dipsy, or Po.

 Joe Bastardi brings something up that I think merits further study. The contrast in temps between the tropics and Arctic has dropped significantly since 1999 because the Arctic has warmed ~2C while the tropics have warmed significantly less. GW has been most concentrated in the Arctic.

“A reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient lowers zonal available potential energy (ZAPE) and surface baroclinicity. Baroclinic instability is the primary energy source for extratropical cyclones (the large-scale mid-latitude storms that form along the jet stream and frontal zones). With less available energy to draw from:

• Models (including coordinated experiments focused on Arctic sea-ice loss and amplification) generally show fewer individual cyclones each season across the northern mid-latitudes and Arctic.
• The remaining storms tend to be, on average, somewhat weaker, slower-moving, and longer-lived.”

Individual events can still be intense or produce more extreme rainfall because of thermodynamic changes.

Because of the distortion of warming, it leads to some things opposite of what is portrayed in the general sense.

Your point is that this differential warming can produce effects that run counter to the simple ‘warmer world = more of everything extreme’ narrative, especially for baroclinic storm frequency and intensity. The thought experiment cleanly highlights how the pattern of warming, not just global-mean temperature, controls the dynamical response.”

Flying today for the first time in over a decade! Especially because I haven’t flown in so long, flying is still fascinating to me and I’m always at a window looking out! On way to CO, 1st stop is in Detroit, my first time in Michigan. The views of W Lake Erie, my first time seeing Erie, were awesome. Noting the fair wx cumulus over land areas due to heating in the early afternoon while mainly clear over the cooler lake:

@roardog@michsnowfreak

Latest 10 day/40 run CFSv2 mean for Feb:

I just started getting decent thunderstorm rains ~7PM. This month so far has been quite beneficial for the lawns and may allow me to keep the sprinklers off the rest of the month!
Edit: My total today was ~0.1”.

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Still rising slowly.

Thanks, Mitch. It has risen >1 in just 14 days!

 CFSv2 10 day run mean is still not backing off of a cold Feb in a large portion of the US, especially corridor from SE US to C Plains where most areas are a whopping 5-7.5F BN though I’d prefer Alaska and NW Canada be AN:

  Compare this to the same for Feb of 2024 from about the same 10 day mean in Aug of 2023: