GaWx

7 minutes ago, EarlGrey said:

The line going through Wake right now is legit. 38mph gust from it so far.

I’m guessing that’s right ahead of the cold front, itself. And what a cold front! Second memorable one within a week. This one may not have as much contrast between airmasses, but it’s going to make it significantly colder and for longer than what came in after the prior one.

1 hour ago, michaeljames said:

With the Climate Prediction Center noting an 80% chance of El Niño for the peak hurricane months, the 2026 Atlantic season could be heavily influenced by these conditions. Historically, strong ENSO anomalies often lead to shifts in storm frequency and intensity. The discussion here provides a good perspective on how early subsurface signals can forecast seasonal hurricane patterns.

 Moderate to strong El Niños also often have a lot to say about prevailing tracks and direction of movement. From what I’ve researched of Nino seasons, there’s a tendency for more of the MDR tracks to not go as far west in the basin vs non-Nino seasons. They tend to gain latitude more quickly and recurve further east. But these are just averages and it takes only one to make for a very bad season.

 In addition to increased shear, El Nino seasons may tend to be less moist in the tropics.

Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod.

I don’t know what forum covers Birmingham, AL, but they got ~1”!! Is that insane?

1 minute ago, suzook said:

With 2 nights in a row in the mid 20's, it definitely could go dormant again. Yes, you are right, with low 80's again this weekend, it should bounce right back. Temp down to 37 now, definitely gonna see some backend snow.

 Can you believe this? Birmingham measured ~1”!! That’s insane!

It’s sleeting all the way down to Peachtree City well south of Atlanta!

2 minutes ago, suzook said:

Yup, sleeting here now with a temp of 38. I was in my pool yesterday. This is nuts. My Bermuda grass is 80% green. Say goodbye to that after tomorrow morning. Not happy about that.

1. It will go dormant that fast?

2. It will turn green again, regardless, very soon.

6 hours ago, suzook said:

Wouldn't be a typical morning in GA without a tornado watch in March. Picked up 3/4 inch or rain so far. Going down to 24 tonight, back in the 80's Friday. Crazy 

Photo confirmation of sleet pellets falling on my sis’ deck just now! She’s not far from Emory area of NE ATL.

Our tornado watch just expired.  We’re now getting a line of storms along the leading edge of rain with gusty winds. It looks kind of rough along the coast to my south though I don’t see any severe warnings yet. But this was issued at 1:59PM:

159 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026 

..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LIBERTY...MCINTOSH 
BRYAN AND 
CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT... 

AT 159 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER 
HARRIS NECK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. 

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND 
UNSECURED OBJECTS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... 
DARIEN, COFFEE BLUFF, WINDSOR FOREST, MONTGOMERY, VERNONBURG, 
HARRIS NECK AND HALFMOON LANDING.

This map suggests the highest risk for tornadoes is in far E NC in the red area fwiw:

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not good if you want to see winter weather in the east. Bad trend in the wrong direction.  There was hope for a wintry period but now its fading.

Looks like I will end up with 47 inches this winter bearing a miracle event.

Yeah, bad NAO trends overall. But there’s still a short cold period showing up for ~3/28. So, though not likely, some NE big cities’ snow still can’t be ruled out for then.

On 3/15/2026 at 11:26 AM, GaWx said:

 

Yesterday’s NAO fcast had clear majority of members going <0:

Today’s NAO fcast: only ~50% go <0

 

AO comparisons are similar.

What will the next few days show?  This is pretty volatile.

Followup: even higher NAO in today’s forecast except the very end…so continuation of yesterday’s +NAO trend:

Yesterday:

Today:

Edit: MJO still forecasted to be in 8 most of rest of March fwiw.

 This is great news for most of the south. I’m happy and would much rather have a forecast bust than the really bad things happen and verify the forecast. I have loved ones in ATL and had debated whether or not to alert them. I chose not to so I wouldn’t cause unnecessary worry based partially on FFC not even saying “possibly severe” for ATL (this was issued at 2:27AM):

REST OF TONIGHT 
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE 
LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 

MONDAY 
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.

So, FFC didn’t bust at all. So, great news in all aspects for ATL. No bust by FFC and only two straight line TS wind damage reports for a downed tree. 
 

 Regarding the crying wolf concern, forecasting these events is very difficult and I saw very little on either board the day before saying it wouldn’t verify. Regarding those that won’t take the threat seriously next time (relatively few imho), that’s their problem as forecasting these is way easier said than done and I’d prefer they be extra cautious.

 I’m hopeful ATL can stay out of big trouble based largely on the lucky timing of the worst coming through in the very wee hours.
 

@buckeyefan1Would you please pin this til the threat passes? TIA

MJO forecasted to be in phase 8 most of rest of March. On average during Marches that were post La Niña winter, phase 8 was the 2nd coldest to phase 7 in Baltimore meaning being warm in the Mid-Atlantic/NE for the period averaged out will not be favored (note that I’m not saying anything explicitly about snow here as it’s getting late for that, especially MidAtlantic):

GEFS:

EPS:

@EastonSN+

3 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Guidance has also backed off on the blocking a bit.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Slightly

Yesterday’s NAO fcast had clear majority of members going <0:

Today’s NAO fcast: only ~50% go <0

AO comparisons are similar.

What will the next few days show?  This is pretty volatile.

 -NAO trends for 3/23-29 have lead to BN signal NE:

4 days ago:

Now:

But NAO/AO continues to trend negative prior to that for week 2:

NAO just 3 days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

No BN signal in E US:

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big Miller A storm track east of the APPS has gone dormant for 20 years now. So JB is in one of the worst snow holes around Central PA.  

State College requires that particular storm track to reach near to above average snowfall. Just like our area needs benchmark snowstorms to reach average to above average snowfall.

Miller A Cutters west of the APPS and weak Miller Bs that dryslot Central PA aren’t good for our area or Central PA.

At least we finally got a solid benchmark season here after so many below average seasons since 2018-2019. 

But our issue has been the dominance of all or nothing seasons since 93-94 where we finish well above average or well below snowfall. The mid range 18-29 season which dominated from the 1960s to early 1990s has become a rarity. 

So our snowfall seasons either hit some nice home runs or we strike out. The risk in a warming climate is that the strikeouts start to become more common than the home runs. But it’s still nice to know that we can get a great bounce back year like this one from time to time.

 

 

 

The map above was not accurately made by Brian B. Examples:

 Providence and much of L.I.  had 200+% of normal (pink), but this shows pink south of them. Bos is also too low.
 This has Charlotte ~normal vs actual of 300+%! It has GSO in NC in yellow vs actual of 200%!

12 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

numbnuts right here is saying that @GaWx

There’s no need to call him that. I gave a like to Anthony’s post saying cool start to spring because he was replying to my post showing a trend toward a lower NAO in week 2, in other words starting with calendar spring rather than met. spring. Y’all are talking about different things.

23 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

I really don’t understand why people are saying it’s been a cool start to spring. You’d either have to be trolling or have zero concept of weather to genuinely believe that.

What people are saying that spring has started cool? This is near the warmest 3/1-12 on record for many. I was actually waiting for spring to get started being that it’s been like summer in the SE. Finally, it cooled off since yesterday.

 The AO and NAO forecasts have lowered since 2 days ago in week 2 based on a day by day comparison.

AO today:

NAO today:

NAO 2 days ago:

Latest MJO: all forecasted days are in phases 7 and 8, the coldest post Niña winter March phases on avg per records:

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Eric Webb touched on this back in November. He said we were exactly following the previous winter precursor patterns that culminated in the super El Niño’s of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 

 It may end up super-strong. But Eric likes to make bold calls and thus has had his share of bad busts before. So, we’ll see. Keep in mind the Euro’s warm bias in predicting ENSO as well as the fact that RONI is currently 0.5C cooler than ONI, which is what most of the model charts are showing.

I took my first walk outside in ~a week this evening due to the end of false summer. It was pleasant with near normal mid 50s, dewpoints near 40, and a nice steady breeze. Looking forward to nice walking wx over almost every one of the next 10 days. Spring has sprung. Actually it is a fallback to spring in this odd March!