GaWx

3 hours ago, suzook said:

28 degrees at 5:30 am, will probably drop another degree or 2 before sunrise. This blows. A forecast high of 48 with wind chills in the low 30's this afternoon. We usually have outdoor activities for st Pat's day downtown. I'll stay home. I already see black on the tips of just bloomed perennials. Wondering how much damage there will be to plants and such that bloomed already. 

 From summery low 90s in some areas just a few days ago back to winter now! It was down to 32 all of the way down to parts of N FL including Cross City, Crestview, and Pensacola! KSAV was 34. Look out tonight for areas that radiate decently to have even colder lows. Some of these areas have freeze warnings for tonight.

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Those were not 65+ knots. Those would be marked in black. 

My bad. I misinterpreted the high wind report categories. Now I realize that there were none of 65 knots+ and there also were no large hail reports.

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Most of those came with the NCFR last evening more than likely. 

Are you saying that the front itself produced that many 65+ knot reports?  If so, wow!

 I have just read some very sad news. Roger Smith, who ran the annual hurricane season forecast contests in this forum at least going back to 2016, passed away on February 24th. He put a lot of thought into these contests as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios. The large number of contestants is all one needs to know to realize how well run these were.
 May Roger rest in peace.

https://www.clarksfuneral.ca/obituaries/Roger-James-Smith?obId=47411042

 This is very sad to read.  Roger also ran annual AmericanWx hurricane season forecast contests at least going back to 2016, which is how I best knew him. He put a lot of thought into these as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios.
 May Roger rest in peace.

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

 I just took an enjoyable walk in 47F windy post cold frontal 34F dew-point Canadian air at a park. I love strong cold fronts! Trash bins and other things were blown over there from this wind. Looking forward to more walks in this great wx the rest of the week.

 Looking for a low in the mid 30s at KSAV followed by a mid 50s high tomorrow making for one of the coldest St. Patrick’s Day parades in a long time! Erin go Blarney!

7 minutes ago, EarlGrey said:

The line going through Wake right now is legit. 38mph gust from it so far.

I’m guessing that’s right ahead of the cold front, itself. And what a cold front! Second memorable one within a week. This one may not have as much contrast between airmasses, but it’s going to make it significantly colder and for longer than what came in after the prior one.

1 hour ago, michaeljames said:

With the Climate Prediction Center noting an 80% chance of El Niño for the peak hurricane months, the 2026 Atlantic season could be heavily influenced by these conditions. Historically, strong ENSO anomalies often lead to shifts in storm frequency and intensity. The discussion here provides a good perspective on how early subsurface signals can forecast seasonal hurricane patterns.

 Moderate to strong El Niños also often have a lot to say about prevailing tracks and direction of movement. From what I’ve researched of Nino seasons, there’s a tendency for more of the MDR tracks to not go as far west in the basin vs non-Nino seasons. They tend to gain latitude more quickly and recurve further east. But these are just averages and it takes only one to make for a very bad season.

 In addition to increased shear, El Nino seasons may tend to be less moist in the tropics.

Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod.

I don’t know what forum covers Birmingham, AL, but they got ~1”!! Is that insane?

1 minute ago, suzook said:

With 2 nights in a row in the mid 20's, it definitely could go dormant again. Yes, you are right, with low 80's again this weekend, it should bounce right back. Temp down to 37 now, definitely gonna see some backend snow.

 Can you believe this? Birmingham measured ~1”!! That’s insane!

It’s sleeting all the way down to Peachtree City well south of Atlanta!

2 minutes ago, suzook said:

Yup, sleeting here now with a temp of 38. I was in my pool yesterday. This is nuts. My Bermuda grass is 80% green. Say goodbye to that after tomorrow morning. Not happy about that.

1. It will go dormant that fast?

2. It will turn green again, regardless, very soon.

6 hours ago, suzook said:

Wouldn't be a typical morning in GA without a tornado watch in March. Picked up 3/4 inch or rain so far. Going down to 24 tonight, back in the 80's Friday. Crazy 

Photo confirmation of sleet pellets falling on my sis’ deck just now! She’s not far from Emory area of NE ATL.

Our tornado watch just expired.  We’re now getting a line of storms along the leading edge of rain with gusty winds. It looks kind of rough along the coast to my south though I don’t see any severe warnings yet. But this was issued at 1:59PM:

159 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026 

..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LIBERTY...MCINTOSH 
BRYAN AND 
CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT... 

AT 159 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER 
HARRIS NECK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. 

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND 
UNSECURED OBJECTS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... 
DARIEN, COFFEE BLUFF, WINDSOR FOREST, MONTGOMERY, VERNONBURG, 
HARRIS NECK AND HALFMOON LANDING.

This map suggests the highest risk for tornadoes is in far E NC in the red area fwiw:

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not good if you want to see winter weather in the east. Bad trend in the wrong direction.  There was hope for a wintry period but now its fading.

Looks like I will end up with 47 inches this winter bearing a miracle event.

Yeah, bad NAO trends overall. But there’s still a short cold period showing up for ~3/28. So, though not likely, some NE big cities’ snow still can’t be ruled out for then.

On 3/15/2026 at 11:26 AM, GaWx said:

 

Yesterday’s NAO fcast had clear majority of members going <0:

Today’s NAO fcast: only ~50% go <0

 

AO comparisons are similar.

What will the next few days show?  This is pretty volatile.

Followup: even higher NAO in today’s forecast except the very end…so continuation of yesterday’s +NAO trend:

Yesterday:

Today:

Edit: MJO still forecasted to be in 8 most of rest of March fwiw.

 This is great news for most of the south. I’m happy and would much rather have a forecast bust than the really bad things happen and verify the forecast. I have loved ones in ATL and had debated whether or not to alert them. I chose not to so I wouldn’t cause unnecessary worry based partially on FFC not even saying “possibly severe” for ATL (this was issued at 2:27AM):

REST OF TONIGHT 
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE 
LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 

MONDAY 
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.

So, FFC didn’t bust at all. So, great news in all aspects for ATL. No bust by FFC and only two straight line TS wind damage reports for a downed tree. 
 

 Regarding the crying wolf concern, forecasting these events is very difficult and I saw very little on either board the day before saying it wouldn’t verify. Regarding those that won’t take the threat seriously next time (relatively few imho), that’s their problem as forecasting these is way easier said than done and I’d prefer they be extra cautious.

 I’m hopeful ATL can stay out of big trouble based largely on the lucky timing of the worst coming through in the very wee hours.
 

@buckeyefan1Would you please pin this til the threat passes? TIA

MJO forecasted to be in phase 8 most of rest of March. On average during Marches that were post La Niña winter, phase 8 was the 2nd coldest to phase 7 in Baltimore meaning being warm in the Mid-Atlantic/NE for the period averaged out will not be favored (note that I’m not saying anything explicitly about snow here as it’s getting late for that, especially MidAtlantic):

GEFS:

EPS:

@EastonSN+

3 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Guidance has also backed off on the blocking a bit.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Slightly

Yesterday’s NAO fcast had clear majority of members going <0:

Today’s NAO fcast: only ~50% go <0

AO comparisons are similar.

What will the next few days show?  This is pretty volatile.

 -NAO trends for 3/23-29 have lead to BN signal NE:

4 days ago:

Now:

But NAO/AO continues to trend negative prior to that for week 2:

NAO just 3 days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

No BN signal in E US: