GaWx

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we can go back to last November to see the very beginning of this record El Niño event for so early in the season. The WWB over the Maritime Continent was essentially tied for the strongest on record during the month of November. It began to give that record warm pool a nudge to the east with the record WWBs expanding eastward in the following months.

 

 

 

 

 Are we headed for another 2023-4 where SSTs are warm around Australia? Per JB, the models that showed for winter 2023-4 at H5 the mean E US trough/Aleutian low (most of them) didn’t have it that warm there and thus he blamed the unforecasted warmth around Australia.

 After a very strong warming the prior 5 days averaging a very impressive 0.1C/day, the latest OISST 3.4 finally slowed its warming although it still warmed slightly (.014). Now that the full week’s data is in, I’m guessing 3.4 will be warmed by 0.3C to +0.8C in tomorrow’s release:

 The MJO ended up going strongly into phase 8 (see image below) after all despite models a couple of weeks ago going only modestly into it and extended ensembles a month ago turning left in 7 toward the circle/missing 8. 

 Bastardi back in April predicted W Car/Gulf TCG in June based on his expectation the MJO would go into 8 despite the extended ensembles not showing that. He more often than not predicts early activity. So, that’s not unusual. But he was right about the MJO. Will he be right about the Atlantic basin June TCG? Models/ensembles are hinting at the chance for this late this week:

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here comes the EPAC TC season (TD-2 EPAC). Likely very many to follow this summer….

 

 

 Thanks, snowman. A key will be to see whether or not 3.4/4 fall severely behind regions 3/1+2 to determine whether or not this will be a very strong form of E based. For those who prefer it be/not be overly E based like ‘97, you’ll want 3.4 to not warm too steadily/keep warming steadily through the summer/early fall overall.

 The Memorial PGA event, hosted by Jack Nicklaus, in Dublin, OH, has a Hickory, NC native, JT Poston, with a big 4 shot lead over Raleigh, NC native Ryan Gerard headed into rd 4. The Memorial is easily considered a top 3 event in terms of field, prestige, and difficulty of course after the Majors/TPC.

 Yesterday it not only had 2 rain delays, it had from a supercell penny sized hail falling live on TV! That’s a first for me to see at any golf tourney. One thing that contributes to my enjoyment of watching golf is the strong wx influence.

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The signal looks real with a CAG looking to develop and the EPAC starting to light up, but the AI ensembles not being as robust still gives me pause.

Either way, another interesting aspect here is the models all showing the potential for tropical moisture to get carried into at least the southeastern U.S. as a ridge flexes in the western Atlantic and a trough tries to sweep eastward from the central U.S., creating a near ideal conveyor belt for moisture transport. That’s something to watch in its own right, and why I’m a little skeptical of the euro operational burying whatever seedling there is in the Bay of Campeche. 

Thanks. The 0Z EPS cut back significantly on the % of members with Gulf TCG vs yesterday’s 12Z run. It will be interesting to see how future runs compare.

 The 6Z GEFS has significantly increased activity vs earlier runs.

Edit:  The 12Z GEFS is significantly quieter than that more active 6Z GEFS.

 Yesterday’s 12Z EPS had nearly 50% of its members with a TCG in S Gulf/NW Car late next week with most of those then heading to the U.S. Gulf coast the following week. 

 However, the 0Z EPS cut back significantly on the % of members with Gulf TCG vs yesterday’s 12Z run. It will be interesting to see how future runs compare.

 The 6Z GEFS has significantly increased activity vs earlier runs.

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^It updates at 2am?

It sometimes updates later but, yes, it often does update in the middle of the night our time. The 24 hour period that each daily is based on evidently ends at about the average middays of Darwin and Tahiti.

On 6/3/2026 at 1:12 PM, GaWx said:

 The model progs are suggesting a shot at a 1017 mb Darwin SLP on June 7th. If that occurs, it would easily become the new highest Darwin SLP that early in the year based on records back to 1992. The current record highest that early in the year is 4/22/2023’s 1016.2 mb. If it reaches 1017, it would become the earliest 1017 on record by ~15 days!

It turns out that the models were right on as today’s Darwin SLP is 1017.70, the earliest that high so early in the season and the 8th highest on record:

 Darwin will be lower tomorrow. Based on history, that 1017.7 could easily end up the highest daily Darwin SLP of 2026. But there’s no telling for sure as an SLP that high remains possible through September (end of their winter).
 

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still a strong difference between the legacy ensembles—which have a growing signal for Gulf development—and the AI ensembles which have a weak signal at best. 

Thanks. If a Gulf TC were to materialize in mid June, then JB will get a big win on a call he made way back in late April as I recall based on projecting MJO phase 8 in early or mid June though he had been leaning more toward a week earlier as he even admitted.

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since the Aurora borealis in May 2024 associated with Solar Max, this big +AO pattern has been happening at the beginning of the warm season for the last 3 years. 

 Thanks, Chuck. Consistent with that, 2025 has by a large margin the strongest +AO for the period I was analyzing, May 23rd-June 4th from 1958 through 2026. That period in 2025 was chilly (~1.5C BN)  though not nearly as cold as the ~-3.5C of 2026. By the way, 2026 had the 4th strongest +AO of this period back to 1958 thus intuitively helping it be one of the coldest. 2023 had the 10th strongest +AO and was ~1C BN. 1994 had the 2nd strongest +AO but it was only ~0.5C BN. 1996 had the 3rd strongest +AO, but it was NN rather than cold. So, the correlation of +AO to cold N of 80B is far from perfect due to other factors coming into play as you very likely realize even though there’s still a decent partial correlation.

 A freaky record breaking cold period for N of 80N just occurred May 23rd-June 4th per the image below (records back to 1958). I saw it mentioned by Bastardi but wanted to confirm it, myself. So, I went through the graphs for every year to confirm this and it turns out he’s right with that period averaging ~-6C, which is ~3.5C BN:

Tropical ATL predictions so far ITT:

ineedsnow  11/4/2

me 8/4/1 ACE 52

LongBeachSurfFreak 12/5/2

Jconsor 13/6/2 ACE 90

Silver Meteor: 10/5/2 ACE 82

WxWatcher007 9/4/2

LakeNormanStormin 10/4/2

Any others?

——————

Also, the 12Z EPS has nearly 50% of its members with a TCG in S Gulf/NW Car late next week with most of those then heading to the U.S. Gulf coast.

 The strong 3.4 OISST warming hasn’t stopped as it warmed 0.12 on 6/5, which means a whopping 0.5C warming 5/31-6/5! Mon’s weekly should be ~0.3 warmer (~0.8). 6/5 RONI equivalent is ~+1.0:

 More on 97. Here were the monthlies:

                     1+2       3          4  

    3.4
1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09
1997   7   25.59    3.63   27.90    2.09   29.37    0.47   28.86    1.56
1997   8   24.96    3.96   27.71    2.59   29.29    0.50   28.75    1.89
1997   9   24.69    3.96   27.74    2.84   29.44    0.68   28.85    2.13
1997  10   24.69    3.67   28.06    3.08   29.34    0.58   29.08    2.36
1997  11   26.12    4.47   28.37    3.27   29.39    0.69   29.12    2.41
1997  12   27.06    4.25   28.53    3.30   29.11    0.57   28.89    2.29
1998   1   28.12    3.55   28.74    3.08   28.95    0.64   28.93    2.38
1998   2   28.74    2.64   28.90    2.49   28.79    0.59   28.78    2.03

 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)!

 The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2:

Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies:

1+2: 3.9

3:    3.9

3.4: 3.7

4:    2.4

 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I thought it was implicit in his tweet that he was speaking of daily anomalies in a very specific area and not region 1+2 overall

 He was but my point is that Paita is just a very specific small area in the far edge of 1+2. It’s 1+2 that we follow because it matters significantly as far as Nino effects on the globe are concerned. And the current 1+2 is nowhere near record highs. I’m adding important context related to this tweet you posted. Without what I added, one could be fooled into thinking that 1+2 is at all-time highs, which is nowhere near true.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru
 

 

^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data
@DHN_peru
All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.”

And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:

 

 Levy is saying record high anom for Paita on 6/3-4/26. He doesn’t say how far back records go. And we’re certainly nowhere near the record anom for 1+2 overall for early June of 1983:

 The following are 1+2 monthly anoms

1983   5   28.26    3.85

1983   6   27.36    4.24

 And 1997 was quite warm, too:

1997   6   26.12    3.00

 These are weeklies

1983 much warmer

01JUN1983         4.4
 08JUN1983         4.0

1997 fairly comparable to current non-relative although this is warmer than current relative’s low 2s:

28MAY1997         2.6
04JUN1997         2.5
 11JUN1997         3.0

 
OISST 1+2 (non-relative) +2.6 (relative only in low +2s vs 4+ in ‘83):

Wow! The latest update for OISST (June 4th) has a massive warming for one day: 0.189C! That’s the strongest one day warming since way back on March 6th! The last 4 days have warmed a hair over 0.4C or a whopping 0.1C/day! That’s the fastest 4 day warming on this entire chart, even exceeding the ~0.36C of April 11th-15th. See far right side of the image below. The strong -SOI is doing its magic on its typically couple of week delayed basis vs when the strong negative string started.

 This means the 6/5/26 RONI equivalent daily is already up to the +0.8 to +0.9 range!

 Implications for Monday’s weekly 3.4 update: at the very least an increase of 0.2C to 0.7C relative 3.4. There’s a good shot at an increase of 0.3 to 0.8 relative 3.4 if this continues to rise on the next 2 days’ updates:

Check out today’s and last 4 days’ warming!

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It's looking like a monster east-based El Niño event.

 Indeed, Don, the Euro’s June prog has the strongest (“monster” as you said) on record. And I agree it’s looking E based. But it’s not currently looking nearly as E based as 97-8 based on peak fall/winter differences between 1+2 and 3.4/4 per the latest Euro. And it’s not even looking as E based as 1982-3 per these same differences.

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s still going to be east-based

 

 

 

 

Agreed. I didn’t say 26-7 wasn’t looking E based. I’m saying it doesn’t look as E based as 1982-3 and not anywhere close to (not even in the ballpark) as E based as 1997-8.

 You posted earlier today this:

“Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was.”

 This (“severely east-based/EP like 1997”) is not true when you compare the regions, which is how E based/C based/Modoki are defined.

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 But it’s less E based than 82-3 and much less E based than 97-8 as I just showed. Since you’ve been emphasizing how much E based 26-7 is looking, what do you think about this?

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Regarding 1+2 less 3.4 per the table link below, 1982-3 fall/winter monthly peak was +1.1. This is based on Nov, which had 1+2 at +3.0 vs 3.4’s +1.9. 1997-8 peak differential was way up at +2.1 (also in Nov)! This is based on 1+2’s +4.5 vs 3.4’s +2.4. But the Euro per Ben’s quoted charts above has a mere only ~+0.7 for 2026-7’s peak monthly 1+2 less 3.4, which is in Sept with 1+2 then ~+3.8 vs 3.4’s ~+3.1! 

  So, the Euro is actually forecasting 26-7 to have a somewhat weaker 1+2 less 3.4 than 82-3 and MUCH weaker than 97-8. So per this measure, it’s forecasting a less E based 26-7 than 82-2 and MUCH less E based than 97-8.

Monthly ERSST:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

20 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.” 

 

 

Winter storms in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry.

 So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being mainly from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).

 Today’s OISST update (for June 3rd) doesn’t have the dramatic 0.09C rise of each of the last 2 days, but it still rose 0.04C to +1.229C.The implied RONI equivalent is ~+0.7C:

*Corrected for typos*

18 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Modelology vs meteorology. 

Where exactly is the cold air coming from if it’s all above normal north of Tennessee? It has to travel from somewhere on the way down right? Cold air can’t come from the pacific at California’s latitude. Which would mean at minimum, near or slightly below normal temps north of TN as it travels down? 

Yeah. i don’t buy wall to wall torch up here either. Maybe it’s 80/20, 70/30 or whatever. But the main reason that it’s blue in the South while dark red over the Great lakes is due to the uniformity of the airmass. 40s is well above normal for the Grest Lakes, but below normal for Louisiana. 

 

 

 With the typical mean +PNA, even Canadian air that’s mild for them and the N US can come down rapidly enough to be BN once it gets to the south. Example: 20 F in MSP, which is AN for there in winter, can come down fast enough to limit modification and still bring BN 30F to the south. Some of the coldest winters in the SE were when it was mild in Canada. Canadian air with a straight shot down here is always cold for us. The coldest anomalies in a +PNA are often in the SE with New England to the Lakes often NN.