4 hours ago, eyewall said:

The 12z GFS for Juy 4th:

Some of this is almost certainly the GFS doing GFS kinds of things (i.e., too hot especially after day 5). The GFS does this frequently in summer. It could easily be 5-10 F too hot. I’d bet heavily against it being this hot. Quite hot is likely but not this hot.

Edit: the lagging issue here isn’t getting any better. It’s terrible! I’ve been here since it started in 2010 and can’t recall any tech issue worse than this.

@Wow

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Sorry I probably should have worded it a bit better. They are Max temps for the entire summer at those locations.

 Oops. So, that’s why most others’ maxes are significantly warmer than mine. I inadvertently in my mind entered a different max temps contest than most. 
 One other entrant @RodneyShas similarly lower maxes to mine. I wonder if he also thought it was just for June. And I saw people before me putting “June” on their entry, which further made me think the maxes also were for just June.

 If there’s any way you can remove my maxes picks, please do so. Otherwise, it’s ok. Maybe I’ll get lucky. 

 Does 30C remain a “magic number” with a warming globe? Or does the “magic #” keep warming as the globe warms? What is the science behind a 30C “magic #”?

On 6/20/2026 at 11:50 AM, GaWx said:

 Keep in mind that these tend to run too high when forecasting extremes out several weeks:

 

Note it’s now <0.5. Compare that to this 6/3 forecast, which had it at +2 for today!

 The first CFS ens AAM run in 5.5 days was just released at the site I follow and it’s a doozy overall with a mean way up at ~+2.8 in just 12 days (July 7th), which is the earliest in the forecast period being that high of any run I’ve ever saved going back to late 2023! (See 2nd image below.) The prior highest mean for day 12 was ~+2.25 on the 5/21/26 12Z run, which verified at ~+1.8 (not bad). If it were to actually verify at +2.8, that would be only a little lower than the ~+3.2 record for that date set in 2015 per this chart from an earlier Tweet I just read:

 Regarding the full run, this is the highest mean of any I’ve saved/seen with it +2.8+ from day 12 through day 33 (July 28th), the end of the run:




 I’ll reiterate though that these tend to run too high, especially late in the runs, when this strong. For example, the 5/25 0Z run (see below) had a mean for today of ~+3 vs the actual of ~0, which is the dip that @bluewave alluded to. Thus, caution is still advised. But with it being way up at +2.8 as early as fcast day 12, it may actually verify pretty closely like the 5/21/26 12Z run at day 12 did (+1.8 vs +2.25 wasn’t too far off):

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

July fourth temps are scorching. An appropriate portend these days 

I’d be quite surprised if KATL has a high on 7/4 of 103 and 104 on 7/5 as this (6Z) gfs run shows because of recent good rains there and the tendency for the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro to be too hot for summer highs in much of the SE outside of RDU. An important variable on how hot it will get will be the amount of rainfall there between now and then. Regardless, heat indices look to be awful either way.

The lagging for the last 2 days has been terrible at AmericanWx!

53 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I think it’s going to get significantly worse before it gets better. I do think the fire hose turns on eventually but I’m not optimistic that happens before Sept

 Every El Niño is different of course. But based on past very strong El Ninos, the firehose of ST moisture for much of the SE doesn’t usually fully turn on until Nov or after the main part of the ATL tropical season is over.

  Does/will CC lead to more net harm or more net benefit? That depends on whom you ask as there are many different perspectives as well as biases. For example, AGW alarmists see only the bad effects and believe the worst case scenarios. OTOH, AGW deniers like Joe Bastardi don’t even acknowledge AGW!

 I don’t think it’s black and white. For example, I as a near coastal resident put more emphasis on past and progged sea rises as well as increased TC related rainfall/peak wind potential than many far from the coast since I see the direct effects close-up. The frequency of significant to major coastal flooding events nearby has increased greatly. This is both with tropical cyclones and without them including King tides on sunny days. Charleston, SC, is a great example of this. I see soooo many coastal flood advisories for there nowadays, including a large # on sunny days! It wasn’t anything like that in the past. However, I also acknowledge that a portion of this there and at places like Louisiana and even Manhattan is caused by sinking land. As a near coastal resident, I also have been seeing up close higher avg SSTs and accompanying higher dewpoints/heat indices making summers worse.

 Is anyone else intermittently seeing “bad gateway” error code 502 messages and sometimes having trouble with long delays in reading and posting with it saying the problem is with the host, AmericanWx BB? It’s the worst I can recall here! I’m not seeing this with any other sites.

The code 502 errors are really bad today with big slowdowns here!

 OHC climbing back and may soon reach April 20th highs for 2026:

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Good morning folks please place July forecasts below when you get the chance with the typical deadline of July 1st by 6z. I will be away for vacation from the 28th to the 5th of July so Ill do my best to compile all the values when I get back then. Ill try to do a quick update before I leave of what the results of June will look like around Friday (26th) since there shouldn't be major changes that occur.

 Thanks for doing this.
 Are you also asking for max July temps like you did for June?

22 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

Holy moley - this thread is starting to get quite extremist, I have to say.

You folks do realize that a lot more people die of *cold* each year, than die of *heat* - right?   I don't think you really want to go where you're going.  

Let's be pragmatic here.   MMGW, while certainly an issue, is not a practical threat to human life, in any way, shape or form.   People are going to die from extreme heat waves - just as they have since the beginning of time.   As the planet warms *less* people will die (and have been dying) due to weather events, not more.

 
 Although US heat related deaths are rising and should continue to rise from GW, it’s true that far more people have died from cold than from heat (>10:1) and thus GW should in theory result in a net of fewer cold/heat related deaths there for a good while into the future. And this isn’t even taking into account any increases in food supply attributed to longer growing seasons and increased CO2 fertilization effect. So, CC clearly has some benefits regardless of the often emphasized harms that include rising sea levels, increased extreme flooding incidences, and more powerful tropical cyclone peaks/heavier rainfall from warmer temps holding more moisture and slower moving (on avg) TCs:

Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Burden in the US From 2000 to 2020

The Yale University Institutional Review Board approved this case series

Findings  This case series of 54 223 429 deceased individuals found that both low and high temperatures were significantly associated with mortality burden, with low temperatures associated with more mean annual deaths (45 992) than high temperatures (3414). However, the burden from high temperatures increased by 53% from the 2000-2009 to 2010-2020 study periods.

 The annual mortality count attributable to low temperatures increased by 7% between the 2000-2009 and 2010-2020 study periods, from 44 278 to 47 551 annual deaths. However, the annual mortality count attributable to high temperatures increased by 53%, from 2670 to 4091 annual deaths.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2841063

1. The Euro doesn’t peak before Dec, with a record RONI monthly of +3.1 in Dec vs current monthly record of +2.7 (1982):

2. But the CFS peaks earlier (in Nov) also way up at record levels for RONI of +3.2C. But then afterward, the CFS has by far the fastest cooling on record (I’m taking with a grain, especially because it’s the unreliable CFS) with it plunging to only +2.0 in Jan and +1.5 in Feb:

3. Due to a tendency for models to be a bit too warm with forecasts this far out, it wouldn’t surprise me if the actual RONI monthlies peak in the high +2s instead of low +3s. However, with the record warmest RONI month of only +2.7, a record warmest RONI is likely as of now.

If this were to keep up, the WCS daily PDO would go positive at least for a short period starting by ~this weekend! It’s now up to -0.17 vs -1.40 on May 27th:

 The last times this was + were ~5 days in March-April of 2025!

Is anyone else intermittently seeing “bad gateway” error code 502 messages and sometimes having trouble with long delays in reading and posting with it saying the problem is with the host, AmericanWx BB? I’m not seeing this with any other sites.

On 6/21/2026 at 7:04 AM, bluewave said:

Big shift to a negative tendency last few days as we see a more Niña-like pattern again for a time near the end of the month. 

The post above from Chris and the one below from Adam are in conflict with Chris’ suggesting more Nina-like (-AAM) and Adam’s stating +GLAAM off the charts!

 Why are these 2 saying opposites about upcoming AAM?
 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This is the same twin cyclone progression that lead to the massive WWB/westerlies and DWKW back in April. The SOI has also tanked again. Constructive interference from the MJO, ERW boost, SSTs and subsurface soaring, a Nino standing wave/-OLR has formed, +GLAAM off the charts, budding +IOD….the perfect storm.
 

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

When the warm pool extends from Japan to California it allows the PDO to move closer to neutral.

The key to watch going forward will it be able to get positive and hold it. Recent years the daily PDO values have rebounded back closer to neutral but couldn’t get into sustained positive territory.

When the PMM was this strong going into the summer of 2015, the PDO was at +1.65.

July 2015 +1.65 PDO vs May 2026 -PDO at -1.60

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

 

 

 

Thanks, Chris.

Related to the PDO, I saw this quote today:

“Waters around Japan have been cooling quite a bit lately while warming north/northeast of Hawaii.”

13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

One hopes that before that happens the developing super-ultra-mega-El Nino will break through with a southern stream fire hose.

 The fairly reliable S stream super-Nino fire hose pattern doesn’t typically start til after the end of the active part of the tropical season, i.e. not til November usually.

On 6/22/2026 at 11:50 AM, bluewave said:

The warm pool to the east of Japan began developing during the mid to late 2010s. It’s the first time the ocean there down to the subsurface has warmed this much in the modern monitoring era.

It’s appears to be due to the record 500 mb heights leading to light winds and clear skies allow the ocean below to warm. When we had the colder pool in the EPAC in recent years it lead to the record low -PDOs. In the old days the -PDOs were driven by mostly the cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than the warm anomalies from Japan to south of the Aleutians. 

Most researchers avoid the term permanent and use persistent or new as a description. What would need to have happen to reverse this pattern would be for low pressure and strong winds to persist in this location with more clouds.

If this could be sustained for more than a few months, then there would be a shot at cooling the surface and subsurface. As long as the warm pool persisted off of California, then the PDO could transition to a more strongly positive level like we last saw back in 2015. 

Current model forecasts have this warm pool east of Japan persisting through December at the same time there is a warm pool off of California. So this effectively brings the PDO closer to neutral with overlapping warm pools from the West and East. 

Since these models aren’t the greatest for reliably beyond 8-15 days, we are just going to have to wait and see what the details will be. Plus they have missed the summer -PDO declines recent summers as the ridge to the East of Japan has verified much stronger than seasonal model forecasts. 

It appears that the subsurface reservoir of record warmth reaching to the surface has resulted in a feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere sustaining the pattern.

While it’s still very early in the El Niño process, the big increase in WWBs near and off the equator so far hasn’t had the stronger winds and lower pressures to the East of Japan and to the south of the Aleutians like the developing super El Niño 1997 had during the spring. We would want to see the westerlies increase to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians especially by next winter to have a chance to begin to get the PDO into more of a positive state. 
 

 

 

 

 

 
 The WCS daily PDO has increased from -1.4 on May 27th (per the WCS tweet being quoted) to -0.3 on June 22nd! Folks need to keep in mind that these can fluctuate a good bit from week to week. Regardless, this 1.1 rise is notable and it did occur during a significant strengthening of El Niño:

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 Indeed, this latest CFS mean has about the strongest 3.4 yet whether relative or not:

Relative now peaks at +3.0C in BOTH SON and OND for the first time that I’ve seen:

 Of the ones I’ve saved, the prior highest CFS was this one from June 1st. It was also +3.0C in OND but was only +2.9C in SON:

The Apr-June of ‘26 MJO has been about the most left-sided of any Apr-June since records started in 1975:

2026:

Closest years were:

2021:

1991:

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warm pool to the east of Japan began developing during the mid to late 2010s. It’s the first time the ocean there down to the subsurface has warmed this much in the modern monitoring era.

It’s appears to be due to the record 500 mb heights leading to light winds and clear skies allow the ocean below to warm. When we had the colder pool in the EPAC in recent years it lead to the record low -PDOs. In the old days the -PDOs were driven by mostly the cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than the warm anomalies from Japan to south of the Aleutians. 

Most researchers avoid the term permanent and use persistent or new as a description. What would need to have happen to reverse this pattern would be for low pressure and strong winds to persist in this location with more clouds.

If this could be sustained for more than a few months, then there would be a shot at cooling the surface and subsurface. As long as the warm pool persisted off of California, then the PDO could transition to a more strongly positive level like we last saw back in 2015. 

Current model forecasts have this warm pool east of Japan persisting through December at the same time there is a warm pool off of California. So this effectively brings the PDO closer to neutral with overlapping warm pools from the West and East. 

Since these models aren’t the greatest for reliably beyond 8-15 days, we are just going to have to wait and see what the details will be. Plus they have missed the summer -PDO declines recent summers as the ridge to the East of Japan has verified much stronger than seasonal model forecasts. 

It appears that the subsurface reservoir of record warmth reaching to the surface has resulted in a feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere sustaining the pattern.

While it’s still very early in the El Niño process, the big increase in WWBs near and off the equator so far hasn’t had the stronger winds and lower pressures to the East of Japan and to the south of the Aleutians like the developing super El Niño 1997 had during the spring. We would want to see the westerlies increase to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians especially by next winter to have a chance to begin to get the PDO into more of a positive state. 
 

 

 Interestingly, since that WCS tweet was made on 5/28/26 showing the then latest WCS PDO (5/27/26) down at -1.40, then near a 6 month low, the WCS PDO has risen nearly 1 in just 25 days while El Niño has gotten much stronger to -0.48:

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report.

My progs were right this time:

                             1+2………3…….3.4…….4

29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.1        0.9        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7
 17JUN2026         2.4        1.3        1.1        0.8

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall:

This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:

The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues to have as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall:

 This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week: