GaWx
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Posts posted by GaWx
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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:
The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer.
We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May.
What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen.
Chris,
June-July 1991 also didn’t get the memo (Also, May of 1991 was very warm):
In addition, June-July of 1877 wasn’t cool.
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8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
A “must read” piece on climate, data, and data manipulation:
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/hot-days-cold-thermometers
Thanks, Don!
This is the first time I can recall becoming aware of this observation time bias potentially causing overcounting of high max temps due to double counting of these highs as a result of observers getting 24 hour max prior to 1940s during late afternoon, near the time of most very hot highs, as opposed to mainly doing it near sunrise 1940s+.
Do you have a source with more details on this? How widespread was this practice of getting 24 hour max late in afternoon? Do you by chance know how often this would result in double counting hot highs?
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12Z UKMET: 1005 mb Galveston hour 33
-Has TS force winds C and W LA coast but nowhere in TX.
-Rainfall for GLV-HOU only ~0.5-75”. Max is ~4” and is near Matagorda Bay.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 88.4W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2026 0 29.8N 88.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 23.07.2026 12 29.3N 90.7W 1003 33
1200UTC 23.07.2026 24 29.0N 92.4W 1001 43
0000UTC 24.07.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING-
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The 7/21/26 WCS PDO of -1.56 is the lowest since way back on 11/8/25:
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I’m calling the formation of Bertha as another MJO phase 8 related pattern recognition win for Joe Bastardi in addition to Arthur.
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
...CENTER OF BERTHA WOBBLING SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 88.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Bertha's satellite presentation has continued to degrade this
morning, with all of the associated deep convection having been
pushed well to the southwest of the exposed surface center due to
strong deep-layer shear. That said, dropsonde data from NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure has changed very little from the previous
advisory. The NOAA aircraft measured a peak 750-mb flight-level
wind of 55 kt several hours ago, which equates to an initial
intensity of 45 kt. More recent aircraft data suggest those winds
may have decreased, but for now we'll continue to hold 45 kt in
anticipation of additional aircraft and scatterometer data over the
next few hours.
Bertha's center has been deviating a bit north of the forecast
track, and the current motion estimate is now 290/5 kt. Track model
guidance insists that Bertha should resume a westward motion today,
but wobbles and deviations like the current one are normal behavior
for such a highly sheared tropical cyclone. Once a westward motion
resumes, Bertha's center is likely to straddle the coast of
Louisiana through Thursday and then reach the upper Texas coast by
Thursday evening or night. The NHC track forecast lies along the
northern edge of the guidance suite, partially to account for the
recent northward jog and partially to closely follow the typically
reliable HCCA and GDMI guidance.
The expected weakening appears to be on the verge of starting, and
the main question for the forecast is how quickly will Bertha lose
intensity. Part of that equation is how much time the center will
spend over land, while the system also continues to contend with
strong northeasterly shear. The NHC intensity forecast maintains
Bertha as a minimal tropical storm through 36 hours (around the
time of a potential Texas landfall), but it's also possible that
the cyclone could weaken to a depression or remnant low by that
time. Like the track forecast, the intensity forecast is largely a
blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance. A remnant low forecast
point is shown over Texas at 48 hours for continuity's sake, but
Bertha could have dissipated by that time.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 29.8N 88.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 29.6N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1200Z 29.5N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 24/0000Z 29.4N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 29.0N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg-
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I had a very impressive ~3.75” July 12-15 at my place, which allowed me to stop irrigation for the time being. However, since then (~one week), I’ve had hardly any.
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Last 90 days of MJO still is when averaged the most left-sided on diagram for this time of year, April 22nd-July 20th, for any year on record (back to 1975…I just looked at all of them) and this new record should hold through the end of July at least. Anybody know what this means?
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Latest mean of CFS AAM prog: steady as she goes +1.5 to +2.0 into mid August indicative of strong El Niño (further out usually higher/too high due to + bias):
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6Z UKMET: weaker than 0Z’s 999 mb with 1005 mb when near GLV (hour 39). Most of rainfall S of GLV, where <1” falls, and Houston, where <0.5” falls. Peak of ~4” Matagorda Bay.
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0Z UKMET: similar to 12Z with a TS passing just S of Galveston at hour 45 heading W with a 999 mb 44 knot winds then with most of the rain in the S quadrant; the remnant inland low then moves SW
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 87.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2026 0 29.2N 87.5W 999 42
1200UTC 22.07.2026 12 29.3N 88.3W 998 37
0000UTC 23.07.2026 24 28.5N 90.4W 997 40
1200UTC 23.07.2026 36 28.8N 92.7W 998 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 48 29.0N 95.9W 1002 31
1200UTC 24.07.2026 60 27.6N 99.2W 1006 26
0000UTC 25.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING -
53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:
So many click bait winter outlooks from meteorologists on YouTube calling for a snowy winter for the Northeast due to the strong STJ.
Hasn’t it been the case just about every year for a good while that there are numerous clickbait mets on YouTube calling for a snowy winter in the E US for whatever reason they come up with that year? They always seem to do this. What’s extra funny is that the bulk of them usually also have mild and limited snow in the SW US because they don’t live out there. By having mild/snowless on their maps, they probably think that makes them look objective as opposed to having cold/snowy just about everywhere lmao. The whole thing is laughable.
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Arctic ice area not too bad currently with it near the 2013-24 avg as of now:
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12Z UKMET is, of course, stronger due to a stronger initialization. This, like the 0Z, only skirts LA and like that one comes in just SW of Galveston hours 57-60 while highest winds are 45 knots/solid TS:
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.07.2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 85.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.8N 85.9W 997 52
0000UTC 22.07.2026 12 29.3N 87.4W 996 43
1200UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.4N 88.3W 996 41
0000UTC 23.07.2026 36 29.2N 89.8W 995 40
1200UTC 23.07.2026 48 29.1N 92.1W 995 47
0000UTC 24.07.2026 60 29.0N 95.1W 997 45
1200UTC 24.07.2026 72 27.9N 98.2W 1003 29
0000UTC 25.07.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING-
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5 minutes ago, FPizz said:
Does this have anything to do with the El Nino? Maybe very warm in Argentina, and cold up 80N? Just wondering.
Good question. I don’t know but they’re both fascinating to see.
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Aside: I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems?-
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The coldest on record DMI 80N+ temps continue! This started in late May and hasn’t stopped! I once again just checked every year back to 1958:
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The OHC per this is now >+2.5 due to a rapid rise! Due to possible interpolation in the near future IF this were hitting a (temporary) max, this could be cooled on future graphs. But even if so, July has almost definitely hit a new high for the event:
***I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems? @Wow-
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
Some extreme effects from this record developing El Nino showing up in South America.
Chris, I find it fascinating that the previous warmest was in August, another winter month! Do you know if that was also in El Niño?
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The -SOI streak just hit 72 days, which is tied with 1997 for the 2nd longest -SOI streak since the daily record start in 1991! There’s a near 100% chance that it will reach a new 2nd longest streak of 73 days tomorrow:
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Peak Flight-Level Winds: 62kt at 11:55z
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11 hours ago, mitchnick said:
I'm not taking anything personal on this Board. Lol I'm just being blunt. You've said several times that the seasonal models are just spitting out canonical enso winter forecasts and Cfs2 clearly didn't based on the temp forecast you criticized but never posted. And remember, you picked the 23/24 winter as the example.
But we agree on 1 thing. The seasonal models won't be right in all locations around the globe. If you're going to judge them based on an entire continent or the world, then fine, they stink. But that doesn’t mean they can't be close in some areas. I only care about the east, specifically the N. Mid Atlantic. As Gawx has proven in several recent posts on the subject, they've been pretty good around here lately, including 23/24. So they are worth considering. And like I said, if they showed warm, please don't kid yourself that you wouldn't be posting or referencing them.
To set the record straight, 25/26 rather than 23/24 is the winter that I said that @bluewavewas too harsh on as regards the 8/1/25 Euro and mid-July ‘25 CFS performance overall for the Conus. They forecasted ~+2F anomalies for the Conus averaged out geographically, which was ~36F. I posted them here:
That means they were predicting the 7th or 8th warmest winter on record back to 1895. It ended up at 37.1F, which is ~3F above both the 1993-2016 climo base of the Euro and the 1991-2020 climo base of the CFS and the 2nd warmest on record. That’s a decent performance by these two imho, especially with DJF being ~6 months out! They missed by only ~1F and thus still predicted quite a warm winter even though not warm enough:
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0Z UKMET: significantly stronger than last few runs and not as far N track allowing it to avoid LA for the most part and actually landfall just S of Galveston as TS, where Joe Bastardi said he may be hanging out:
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 86.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.5N 86.2W 1005 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.7N 86.4W 1001 42
0000UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.3N 87.1W 1001 37
1200UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 87.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 23.07.2026 48 28.9N 89.0W 1002 42
1200UTC 23.07.2026 60 29.0N 90.3W 1004 37
0000UTC 24.07.2026 72 28.5N 92.6W 1000 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 84 29.1N 94.9W 1006 38
0000UTC 25.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING-
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Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHESTropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep
convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and
limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant.
Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the
center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported
that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this
afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the
south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern
semicircle.
There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which
indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved
very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial
motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two
mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering
currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to
become the dominant steering influence which should induce a
west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction,
on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.
Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical
wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will
increase during the next couple of days. This should limit
intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep
convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the
shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the
interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the
forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high
side of the model guidance.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Pasch-
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12Z UKMET is slightly stronger than 0Z with it showing 35 knots/barely TS this time before it dissipates by hour 60 moving W into LA, a similar track to 0Z/6Z runs. It then comes out S of LA but in a weakened state below TD status as it heads into the Galveston vicinity:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 85.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.4N 85.5W 1008 23
0000UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.8N 85.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.7N 86.3W 1005 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 86.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 22.07.2026 48 30.1N 87.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 23.07.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING-
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
The current -SOI streak has now surpassed the 72 day streak of 1997 and is now at 74 days. Only 1998’s 100 days has been longer as far back as daily records go at Long-Paddock:
https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt