GaWx
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Posts posted by GaWx
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On 7/17/2026 at 7:39 PM, snowman19 said:
Thanks, Adam.
For the period May-July, we’re likely headed to ~-22 avg SOI. One has to go all of the way back to 1905 to find any year at -22 or lower for May-July! Then it was -27. But that was a second year Niño (moderate). The only other one was in 1896, a strong Nino. That was at -28. Per Eric Webb’s tables, 1895-6 barely missed a low end weak Nino because there were only 4 tri-months in a row of +0.5 surrounded by +0.3s! So, 1896-7 was practically a 2nd year Nino. So, 2025-6 with 2024-5 having been La Niña is in uncharted territory going back to the mid-1800s as regards the extremely intense summer -SOI.-
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17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
El Nino's effects do propagate to the Stratosphere and the Strat winds are opposite +QBO vs El Nino so it is possible there is some correlation
No other year on record was nearly as wacky as 15-17 QBO-wise. 48-53 maybe couldn't get out of -QBO and that had a string of La Nina's.
Chuck,
I don’t follow you.
Do you see anything that could prevent a +QBO from starting ~now or in autumn and then going through winter? If so, what? I’ve been banking on it based on the common ~24 month pattern.
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37 minutes ago, raindancewx said:
The 2015-16 El Nino screwed up the progression of the QBO if I remember correctly.
Did anyone ever figure out why and if it could happen again? I would think its decent odds for this year with this El Nino, even though the QBO is off a bit from where it was then.
How do you know that the El Niño is what caused this? Couldn’t it just be a coincidence? I’m suspicious of that because I couldn’t find even one similar occurrence with any of the other super-Nino events!
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19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
+2 for Nino 3.4?
Don’t forget that CDAS is slightly cold biased. But this chart isn’t relative. Relative OISST is in the +1.6-+1.7 range.
I’m guessing that tomorrow’s weekly relative Nino 3.4 release will have it at +1.5 with +1.6 on the high end.
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1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
I think they are re-adjusting some of the daily SOI's. I remember it being higher in recent days. This is quite a streak:
19 Jul 2026 1013.04 1016.50 -27.15 -27.71 -19.78 18 Jul 2026 1013.56 1016.50 -23.95 -27.02 -19.48 17 Jul 2026 1013.50 1016.95 -27.09 -26.34 -19.15 16 Jul 2026 1013.27 1018.25 -36.50 -25.58 -18.73 15 Jul 2026 1012.10 1017.65 -40.01 -24.45 -18.16 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66 10 Jul 2026 1013.16 1015.45 -19.94 -22.84 -16.52 9 Jul 2026 1011.59 1014.45 -23.45 -22.68 -16.60 8 Jul 2026 1008.90 1015.20 -44.63 -22.32 -16.71 7 Jul 2026 1009.02 1015.35 -44.81 -21.68 -16.58 6 Jul 2026 1011.31 1015.45 -31.33 -21.34 -16.28 5 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.25 -35.46 -21.21 -16.03 4 Jul 2026 1010.84 1015.20 -32.69 -21.02 -15.72 90-day SOI hasn't been -20 since 1998.. first biggest El Nino event of the 2000s.
That July 16th Darwin 1018.25 mb is its 2nd highest on record back to 1991. The highest is only barely higher, 1018.35 (mid-2004).
*Corrected
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31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
Again to reiterate, a Winter east vs west-based El Nino
Thanks, Chuck. So, temps are clearly colder with W vs E based. Is some of this because the strongest El Niño winters tend to have warmer 1+2?
However, with regard to wintry precip, itself, the SE appears to have done a bit better with C based (3.4 warmest) than W based (4 warmest) if I’m recalling my research correctly. -
1 hour ago, bluewave said:
My statement was correct. The winter of 2025-2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the CONUS.
While it’s difficult to find a perfect match, the forecasts were close to a 1994-1995 outcome which was the 12th warmest winter for the CONUS.
So for the CONUS the seasonal forecasts were too cold due to the extreme nature of the warmth out West.
I kept the scales in (C )for a direct comparison to the ECMWF forecast.
Rankings and departures out West were much higher than the East
Verification in (C)
I realize ‘25-6 DJF was mild overall in the CONUS on a geographic basis. I’m not disputing that. But I think you’re being a bit too harsh on model performance for 25-6.
The winter averaged 37.1F, which was 3.1F warmer than the Euro’s climo base of 1993-2016 and 3.0F warmer than the CFSv2’s climo base of 1991-2020. The forecasted mean anomaly for both the 8/1/25 Euro and the mid-July ‘25 avg CFSv2 was ~+2F for the CONUS on a geog. area basis or ~36F. This was actually a bit warmer than the 35.6 of 1994-5. Thus, the models were only ~1F too warm on a geog. area basis.
Here are the warmest CONUS winters since 1895-6 (excluding 2025-6):
37.5 in 2023-4
36.8 in 2015-6
36.5 in 1999-00
36.4 in 1991-2
36.3 in 2011-2
36.3 in 1998-9
36.0 in 1999-00
Thus, with their ~36F progged mean, these 2 models were essentially predicting about the 7th-8th warmest CONUS winter since 1895-6. It came out 2nd. I think that’s pretty darn good.
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
The models were too cold with their 2025-2026 CONUS forecast since the magnitude of the Western warmth was significantly greater than the cold in the East. Just by looking at any of the seasonal models would not have given any indication of the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS.
Mid July ‘25 CFSv2 2m fcast for winter 25-6:
8/1/25 Euro 2m fcast for winter 25-6:
Actual 2m for winter 25-6:
So, these 2 were much too warm in the E US, pretty close central, and not nearly warm enough W, especially in/near Rockies. W coast though was fairly close.
*Edited for typo
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12Z UKMET: 6th run in row with TS but dissipates off TX
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 85.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 27.1N 85.2W 1012 22
0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 27.9N 84.9W 1009 22
1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 27.6N 85.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.2N 85.5W 1005 30
1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.8N 85.7W 1004 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 29.3N 86.0W 1003 35
1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 29.4N 87.1W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 29.2N 88.2W 1004 40
1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.0N 90.7W 1002 48
0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.1N 93.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING -
TD2 advisories to be initiated at 11AM.
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59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:
It's on course to become a truly monstrous historic event. Its impacts will be far-reaching and probably very severe.
The latest CFSv2 run’s mean is at new highs for peak:
Monthly relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.6 (Nov), which is way above current record (back to 1950) warmest of +2.69 (Jan ‘83) :
3 month relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.35 (SON and OND), which is way above the record back to 1950 of +2.52 (NDJ 1982-3)
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NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (formerly AL91) located over the Gulf of America, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod. TIA
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I just started a thread on Invest 91L/potential Bertha:
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Invest 91L will be investigated by recon today. NHC chances in TWO now very high:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. In
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi——————
-Last 5 full (0Z/12Z) UKMET runs, the most consistently enthusiastic of the globals, have had a TS from this moving toward W GOM/LA/TX.
-Icon also has been hinting at this for several days with some runs having a TC
-0Z Euro was first run with a TC with it near borderline TS S of W FL panhandle
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. In
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi -
The 0Z Euro is the 1st one that I can recall with TCG of 91L. It even gets to borderline TS status S of the W FL panhandle Tue night.
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0Z UKMET: 5th run in a row of having a TD (TCG tomorrow) as well as a TS (upgraded Mon night) but doesn’t get as strong as prior 2 runs; mainly WNW movement to SE LA Wed night
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 27.4N 85.2W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 12 27.4N 85.2W 1011 23
0000UTC 20.07.2026 24 28.0N 85.1W 1008 25
1200UTC 20.07.2026 36 27.7N 85.5W 1007 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.6N 86.1W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.07.2026 72 28.9N 86.6W 1004 38
1200UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.7N 88.3W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.9N 89.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.4N 90.7W 1009 35
0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING -
There still hasn’t been so far this summer a 100 F high at either Columbia or Augusta. Considering how hot this summer has been and with them often being two of the hottest for highs, that’s kind of surprising even though they’ve been plenty hot with 11-12 days in the upper 90s.
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45 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:
The CFS has been hinting at this possibility based on its very sharp record-paced cooling of 3.4 from Dec to Mar.
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By the way, the 12Z UKMET was the 4th full run (full runs are at 0Z/12Z) that developed this into a mainly W moving full fledged TS. The last 2 runs developed it into a TD by early tomorrow morning! Landfall near LA/TX border:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.1N 84.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.5N 84.9W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 36 28.1N 85.2W 1006 28
1200UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.2N 86.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.1N 86.1W 1002 33
1200UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.4N 86.1W 1000 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.2N 86.2W 997 50
1200UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.6N 86.9W 998 51
0000UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.3N 87.8W 996 52
1200UTC 23.07.2026 120 28.9N 88.8W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 132 28.7N 90.0W 999 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 144 29.0N 92.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 25.07.2026 156 29.3N 94.2W 1004 37
1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING
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Invest 91-L now
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1. The RRFS, which will replace NAM, has been developing this into a TS.
2. 0Z UKMET moves up TCG to 8PM Saturday and is stronger (winds almost to H strength Tue AM, which is high for the typically conservatively low UK) as it moves mainly slowly W to the NW GOM:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.1N 83.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.1N 83.8W 1011 27
1200UTC 19.07.2026 36 27.6N 84.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.9N 85.1W 1002 33
0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.0N 85.4W 999 37
1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.9N 85.5W 997 46
0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.1N 85.4W 993 56
1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 29.6N 85.4W 995 59
0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 29.2N 86.1W 996 53
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 28.6N 87.2W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 28.0N 88.6W 998 41
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 27.6N 89.9W 999 39
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 29.0N 91.4W 1002 35-
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Will CAE finally reach 100? They’ve already reached 99.
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34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Not the worst look on visible, but for TC genesis it's going to need to be able to fire more persistent convection.
12Z UKMET has moved TCG back up to Sunday (AM) and in E GOM. Becomes TS Mon night. It initially moves WNW followed by slowly SW/SSW after hr 144 into N Central GOM, similar to 0Z run (slow movement throughout):
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 26.9N 84.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 27.4N 85.1W 1012 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.8N 85.7W 1009 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 28.2N 86.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.1N 87.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 27.9N 87.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 28.6N 87.6W 1000 43
1200UTC 22.07.2026 120 29.3N 88.2W 1003 44
0000UTC 23.07.2026 132 29.5N 88.6W 1004 35
1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 29.2N 89.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 28.4N 89.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.7N 89.7W 1002 40
TD2/potential Bertha
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
For the first time in 7 runs, the UKMET doesn’t have a TS from this: it dissipates in the NW GOM similarly to the prior run
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 84.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.0N 84.9W 1009 23
1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 28.5N 85.5W 1008 22
0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.3N 85.7W 1006 27
1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.9N 85.6W 1005 32
0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 29.7N 86.1W 1005 31
1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 30.3N 86.8W 1008 28
0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N 90.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.07.2026 84 28.5N 90.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 24.07.2026 96 28.7N 91.7W 1010 24
1200UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.8N 93.4W 1012 28
0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING