GaWx

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warm pool to the east of Japan began developing during the mid to late 2010s. It’s the first time the ocean there down to the subsurface has warmed this much in the modern monitoring era.

It’s appears to be due to the record 500 mb heights leading to light winds and clear skies allow the ocean below to warm. When we had the colder pool in the EPAC in recent years it lead to the record low -PDOs. In the old days the -PDOs were driven by mostly the cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than the warm anomalies from Japan to south of the Aleutians. 

Most researchers avoid the term permanent and use persistent or new as a description. What would need to have happen to reverse this pattern would be for low pressure and strong winds to persist in this location with more clouds.

If this could be sustained for more than a few months, then there would be a shot at cooling the surface and subsurface. As long as the warm pool persisted off of California, then the PDO could transition to a more strongly positive level like we last saw back in 2015. 

Current model forecasts have this warm pool east of Japan persisting through December at the same time there is a warm pool off of California. So this effectively brings the PDO closer to neutral with overlapping warm pools from the West and East. 

Since these models aren’t the greatest for reliably beyond 8-15 days, we are just going to have to wait and see what the details will be. Plus they have missed the summer -PDO declines recent summers as the ridge to the East of Japan has verified much stronger than seasonal model forecasts. 

It appears that the subsurface reservoir of record warmth reaching to the surface has resulted in a feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere sustaining the pattern.

While it’s still very early in the El Niño process, the big increase in WWBs near and off the equator so far hasn’t had the stronger winds and lower pressures to the East of Japan and to the south of the Aleutians like the developing super El Niño 1997 had during the spring. We would want to see the westerlies increase to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians especially by next winter to have a chance to begin to get the PDO into more of a positive state. 
 

 

 Interestingly, since that WCS tweet was made on 5/28/26 showing the then latest WCS PDO (5/27/26) down at -1.40, then near a 6 month low, the WCS PDO has risen nearly 1 in just 25 days while El Niño has gotten much stronger to -0.48:

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report.

My progs were right this time:

                             1+2………3…….3.4…….4

29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.1        0.9        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7
 17JUN2026         2.4        1.3        1.1        0.8

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall:

This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:

The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues to have as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall:

 This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think RONI ends up from like 1.7 to 2.0....just my early guess, but I'll have a better idea next month. ONI 2.2 TO 2.5??

 Thanks, Ray.
 Based on model consensus and even after reducing the avg prog as a BC being that June model run avg has tended to verify too warm, especially Euro, I’m thinking RONI/ONI peaks will likely be at the higher end of your range or warmer. Models are leaning toward an OND peak.

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

 I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there.

I had ~0.05” yesterday evening, which brought me up to ~4.4” MTD.

 I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report.

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The EURO is getting more aggressive with the +IOD, now showing a strong positive event come September

Euro progging peak of impressive +1.4 Oct, which would beat 11/1997 record of +1.3! However, avg IOD has been rising with CC and thus in theory would need to be adjusted down to be comparable and would be < the +1.3 of ‘97. Otherwise, even the adjusted IOD prog could very well be 2nd strongest on record!

IOD data back to 1870, which shows the ‘97 record and longterm rise:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

Further to my post above, the 0Z 5/25 fcast had a mean +3+ for now vs actual <+0.5! These like to overshoot severely:

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Keep in mind that these tend to run too high when forecasting extremes out several weeks:

Note it’s now <0.5. Compare that to this 6/3 forecast, which had it at +2 for today!

From several showers and a severe warned thunderstorm, I received ~1.75” yesterday. That put me then at ~3.80” MTD.

 I received more rain overnight of varying intensities and it’s still falling very lightly with constant rain since late last night. I’ll post the total for this later. It will be >0.5”.

 No more watering for at least awhile!

Edit: Thu night into early Fri PM I ended up with ~0.55”, which then put me at ~4.35” MTD.

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the other overlapping marine heatwaves are adding warmer La Niña-like influences to the mix. Especially when the forcing extends closer to the Maritime Continent which pumps the Southeast ridge. 

This is why the pattern has been so much warmer in the East this spring into June than we have typically have seen during past developing super El Niños.

But the next 10 days look more Nino-like with a trough centered near the Great Lakes and less warmth in the East.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=high&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=5&sdate=2026%2F06%2F01&edate=2026%2F06%2F19&cmap=RdYlBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

2026 warmed to +1.2 relative OISST on June 17th, which is 0.1 warmer than the warmest week on record (back to 1982) centered nearest to June 17th, 1997’s +1.1:
 
2026: +1.2

1997: +1.1

1987: +1.0

2015: +0.9

1982: +0.8

1994: +0.7

1991: +0.6

2002: +0.5

2009: +0.4

2023: +0.4

Data source:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

For obvious reasons, I’m taking this with a humongous grain and thus assume this won’t verify closely:

 I got a 2nd thunderstorm within the last hour. I’ll have a grand total later.

I had received ~0.65” of rain since my last report. 

 In addition, today I’ve been getting a strong thunderstorm that has had a warning since ~4PM. I got 1”+ very quickly. Some CTG lightning nearby. Rain now letting up.

On 6/13/2026 at 2:03 PM, GaWx said:

 Models are suggesting -SOI will lessen. There’s chance -SOI will end 6/16. If so, could be 6 days of +SOI before goes back -.

 Guessing per models

6/14: -15 to -20

6/15: -6 to -13

6/16: +5 to -6

6/17: +8 to -5

6/18: +16 to +1

6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)

6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2

 

 

 

 

 
SOI daily: Prediction from 6/13………actual

6/14: -15 to -20…….-25

6/15: -6 to -13…….-13

6/16: +5 to -6………..-3

6/17: +8 to -5……….-1

6/18: +16 to +1……….+4

6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)………?

6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2………..?

On 6/12/2026 at 8:38 PM, GaWx said:

 Today’s -29 is the 33rd straight day with a sub -5 SOI. Tomorrow will make 34. That’s pretty historic because that will make it the 3rd longest sub -5 streak on record back to 1991! The only two longer ones were in 1997-8 and they were extremely long: 51 and 42 days, respectively.

 The beauty of the SOI is that it doesn’t appear to be strongly affected by CC. Thus it doesn’t need a RONI-like adjustment to remain a good indicator of ENSO strength.

The sub -5 SOI streak ended at 36 days. The only longer ones back to 1991 are the 51 and 42 day streaks of 1997-8.

On 6/11/2026 at 9:43 PM, Upstate Tiger said:

So we have officially entered El Niño phase.  Most agree it will be strong and possibly super El Niño.  
 

The strongest El Niño on record was the super El Niño of 1877/1878.  It actually started in late 1876 and was fully established in spring 1877.  
 

The winter of 1877/1878 was known as the year without winter, especially in the Midwest and eastern US.  Farmers actually planted in February.  
 

This El Niño is starting a little later and no two are the same but at this point, an above average temp winter would be a good bet.  

 In the Midwest it was, indeed, quite mild. But in the NE, it averaged only moderately AN with Dec AN but Jan-Feb pretty close to normal. Jan actually was slightly BN in some cases like at NYC.

 In the SE, only Dec was a mild month. Jan was slightly to moderately BN and Feb was not too far from normal. Thus DJF averaged only slightly AN to NN in the SE.

SE example for DJF 

Asheville: 43.6, 35.2, 39.8

Jan was 35.2/BN with 8.5” of SN (double the normal) from two ~4” snowstorms. The coldest was 7F.

Knoxville was similar. Savannah also had a BN Jan.

 TS Arthur has been born:

 Link to Invest 90L thread:

 Woodstock, GA, (25 miles N of ATL) had 3 widely spaced thunderstorms yesterday!

 It looks like my home area in SAV had several rounds of significant rainfall the last 72 hours with the heaviest being ~1.1” for the 24 hours ending at 7AM today using Cocorahs as a guideline. For the last 72 hours, I roughly estimate 1.4” fell at my location, which is also near my MTD.

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Flash flooding in the south as odds increase…

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the 
trough remains inland.  However, the system could re-emerge over the 
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and 
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the 
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into 
Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern 
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should 
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days 
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and 
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible 
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm 
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in products issued by your 
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
  

 I’ll consider this a win for Bastardi if it actually becomes a TC. He predicted back in April a Gulf TC due to MJO phase 8 being bullish for Gulf TCs in June. This could provide major drought relief for a good portion of the SE!

 This is now Invest 90L:

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902026.dat

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Here are CPC numbers for all 4 Enso areas for 6/10/15 & 6/10/26:

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3ⁿ

If you divide Enso 1.2 anomaly into the other 3 areas' anomalies for both years, you get respectively  60%, 45% and 45% in 2015 and 59.25%, 55.55% and 48.15% this year. Comparing the 2 years, Enso 3 is nearly identical for both years and 3.4 and 4 are a hair warmer this year than 2015.

Obviously, there may be other ways to figure it, but I'd have to say that they are very similar with a slight edge to 2015 as being more east based under this method.

P.s. @GaWx will surely check my math! Lol

 Thanks, Mitch. Indeed, “E based” can be defined in numerous ways as it’s not black and white, of course.

 Here are the relative anomalies for the strongest of years in 3.4 as of the closest week centered on June 10th back to 1982:

                            1+2         3         3.4         4

09JUN1982        -0.2        0.8        1.0       1.1 

11JUN1997         3.0        1.3        0.8        0.2

12JUN2002        -0.3        0.6        0.8        0.7

10JUN2015         1.8        0.8        0.6        0.7

10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7

 Just looking at this period rather than model progs for fall/winter, here are my rankings of most to least E based:

1997, 2026, 2015, 2002, 1982 though 2026 is only slightly ahead of 2015