GaWx

 Unfortunately, after nine days straight of a widespread wetter than normal signal in the SE US for the week April 27-May 3, today’s Euro Weeklies run was much drier in most of the SE:

Yesterday’s run: 9th wet run in a row

Today’s run: drier signal much of the SE

31 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I’ve read through the Christy & Spencer paper and I think it’s worth discussing, but a lot of the conclusions depend heavily on how the analysis is set up. First, it’s U.S.-only, which already limits how broadly you can interpret it. The U.S. is a small, noisy region with a lot of land-use influence, and it’s not necessarily representative of global behavior.

You’re saying how this being U.S. only limits how broadly you can interpret it. But at the same time, many of your recent posts ITT have been U.S. only! You wouldn’t even consider the intense cold in Canada in March. You’re not being consistent.

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Ray and Chris,

 If Nino 3.4 is at +2C vs 1991-2020 and surrounding tropics are also at +2C vs 1991-2020, there’s no warm El Niño tongue to do its forcing. Thus, it’s essentially neutral rather than super El Niño and officially is neutral for RONI. So, RONI is a better measure for strength of El Niño and La Niña for that matter. Do y’all agree?

@bluewave

 This illustrates how much warmer the surrounding tropical areas were during 2023-4, which means a RONI significantly cooler than ONI due to the lowered contrast:

 Look at the much larger contrast in 1982-3:

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies:

Today’s EWs continue to look good overall (certainly much better than how it’s been in the SE for most weeks in recent months) during the two weeks 4/27-5/10:

4/27-5/3:

5/4-10:

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched.

 Related to what you’re saying:

 As JB has emphasized, the models in 2023 that had the beautiful E US trough/Aleutian low that some of us here were repeatedly posting and very excited about were also forecasting the typical BN SSTs around Australia. Had it actually been relatively cold around Australia, JB believes that the E US would have had a cold winter. But alas, it turned out warm around Australia, atypical of El Niño. 
 

 Is 2026 going to end up colder around Australia like JB expects?

On 4/19/2026 at 5:03 PM, suzook said:

Yup, then we, well me at least will by crying it's too wet

Today’s Euro Weeklies have ~2” of rainfall in the NW burbs of ATL and >2” in NW GA/N AL 4/27-5/3!

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone. 

Hey Mitch, It’s probably to get extra clicks and likes. And then some are typically a bit over the top normally.

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Thanks, snowman.
 Here’s the RONI version of the CFSv2, which has a peak of ~+2.25 in OND…that’s near the RONI peak of 1972-3 and 1991-2, only slightly cooler than 1997-8 and 2015-6, and a bit cooler than 1982-3:

 This +2.25 is a significant increase over its +2.0 OND forecast RONI peak in the run from one week ago, which is likely largely tied to its warmer April starting point:

30 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Low of 43. Glad I turned the heat back on.

 There was also a low of 43 at KSAV, their coldest low since way back on March 19th, while KSVN had 47. The forecasted lows had been only down to the low 50s. This was the largest morning low colder than forecast bust in quite a long time in this area. Dewpoints of 37 along with light winds gave it that opportunity.

 It is no surprise to those of us following and posting the dailies that the RONI equivalent for last week rose 0.4 to +0.1, the largest weekly gain since the week centered on 5/31/23, which warmed 0.5. Other regions also warmed with a warming of 0.4 in both Nino 3 and Nino 4 while 1+2 warmed by 0.2:
 

08APR2026         1.0       -0.2       -0.3        0.2
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6

 How does the +0.1 compare to 2015, 1997, and 1982 in mid April? 

- 2015: +1.0 but it had a head start

- 1997: +0.3

- 1982: +0.3

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

4 hours ago, BooneWX said:

I get a feeling when we break out of this, we’ll do the polar opposite. Rainfall has been a case of too little or too much the past few years. It’s either bone dry or a flood risk. We really stink at doing it the old fashioned way by having that weekly type of event. 

 Today’s Euro Weeklies run is the wettest yet for the SE as a whole for Apr 27-May 3rd with ~1.25-1.75” over much of the area!

 
And as an added bonus, the subsequent week (May 4-10) has a bit of a wetter signal than prior runs had:

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

“Interestingly, the 28 Degree Isotherm today is close to where it was around the same time in 1997. The maximum temperature in the basin is higher this year. The west Pacific downwelling wave is stronger this year back to the west, in response to the bigger westerly wind event this year next to New Guinea. The 28 degree isotherm is starting to fold down across the east Pacific.”

 

Thanks, snowman. Keep in mind that Paul is comparing to 1997, when global temps were significantly cooler.

Impressive -NAO on the way:

I don’t know whether or not this was posted and figured this is as good place as any to post it. There’s a major GFS upgrade (v17) coming in Oct, which includes among many other things upgrades to its MJO forecasting:

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is proposing to upgrade the NWS
operational Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Data Assimilation
System (GDAS) from v16 to v17 in October 2026. This upgrade will
transition the system to a fully coupled Earth-system modeling framework
for global weather prediction, improved model forecast performance, and
expanded, enhanced products that cover all components of the Earth
system. The NWS is seeking comments on the proposed changes to GFSv17
through May 15, 2026.
GFSv17 introduces a coupled Earth-system model with components of the
atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice, and waves.

- An increased horizontal resolution from C768 (13 km) to C1152 (9
km)using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamic core.
- Introduction of fractional grids along oceanic coastlines.
- Improved atmospheric and land surface parameterization schemes

Record tied today at KSAV at 93, 2nd 93 in a row and 3rd 90+ in a row. 

17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I want to believe this but it sure as hell isn’t showing up on modeling east of mountains. Keeps hitting 10 days then each chance dries up

Today’s Euro Weeklies almost as wet as yesterday’s for 4/27-5/3 in SE. This is ~1.1-1.7” for the SE averaged out. Fingers crossed. I’d like to stop irrigating for awhile. Plus we have restrictions.

At KSAV, they’ve had their driest Jan 1-Apr 17 (3.3”) and 2nd driest Sep 1-Apr 17 (9.9”) to 1931-2 on record back to 1871-2:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

4 hours ago, chubbs said:

Recent rise in Nino 3.4 SST is similar in timing and magnitude to last 3 super ninos. Chart below shows 1982, 1997 and 2015 along with this year.

Current RONi equivalent is ~+0.1 though it’s risen ~0.4 the last 4 days. So, in a few days it would be up a few more tenths if the same rise rate were to hold.

 How does +0.1 compare to RONI equivalent for the other 3?

1982/97: +.0.4

2015: +0.9 but it had a head start vs others

 So, it could be near 82/97 soon IF the rapid rise continues.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 The cold biased CDAS 3.4 is still rising rapidly as it is now up to +0.404, a rise of ~0.1/day the last 4. Equivalent RONI is ~-0.1 although bc RONI is probably ~+0.1:

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We have eclipsed 90 for the third straight day at my house 

Back to back 90+ at KSAV with 3rd so far this spring. Today’s was a doozy at 93!

Great news on today’s EW for short term drought relief 4/27-5/3:

Yesterday’s run:

Today’s run is even wetter:

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Keep in mind that these are straight 1991-2020 anomalies rather than RONI equivalent anomalies that are relative to warm average global tropical anomalies. So, there’d still be some blue if that were the case being that there’s ~0.5C diff.

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Subsurface anomalies over +5C showing up:
 

The 5+ is centered pretty far west (140-160 W, which is west central 3.4. Hoping that’s a sign that El Niño will be center to west based like Cansips suggests and not east based like NMME shows.