GaWx

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For much of NC even with the rain we were still below what a normal week should produce this time of year. So it makes sense that t worsened. I can guarantee that the 0.82” I've received THE ENTIRE month has done nothing but worsen the drought. This is our 4th in last 8 months I have recorded less than 1” of rain at my house for the entire month. 

 In my area where ~1” fell on April 26th (during the week ending 8AM on April 28th), which is more than the normal week’s ~0.75”. I don’t see how that area really worsened a category between 8AM on April 21st and 8AM on April 28th with that week being wetter than normal. I’m thinking that some reports came in between 8AM 4/21 and 8AM 4/28 that were based on conditions prior to 4/26. Keep in mind that 8AM 4/28 was merely the deadline to get reports in that would be reflected on today’s map. For example, I’d think that the 4/28 deadline would incorporate reports coming in on, say, 4/25.

 Also, some reports submitted could easily be based on conditions from 1-2 days prior to the submission. So, reporting lag would have two components to consider.

 I’m not saying no area in reality worsened. Your area is a good example of one that really did worsen from what you’re saying. But your area’s worsening doesn’t represent the entire SE.

 This isn’t meant to be a criticism as reporting lag can’t be prevented…it’s totally normal.

44 minutes ago, bckhd2 said:

My theory for this is that it's hard for 1" of rain to be enough to drop a county a whole category when much of the state has been in some form of drought for 3+ months... FFC mentioned in their discussion today that even the 1-2" in store for central GA Saturday will not "put much of a dent in the drought." I think we will need at least multiple days/weeks of good sustained rainfall to improve by enough to drop a category. This image posted on FFC's Twitter I think does a nice job explaining... we would need over 10" in a month to get back to near-normal. Regardless, I do expect some improvement in next week's update.

 I’m not saying that I expected my county (Chatham) to improve a category. But the bulk of my county worsened a category despite 0.5-1” of rainfall in a good portion of it. I believe reporting lag was the reason for a good portion of that worsening of a category. Some other counties in GA as well as in AL, SC, and S NC were in a similar boat. Example: 4 counties in NE GA. It’s not just my county.

 This isn’t meant to be a criticism as reporting lag can’t be prevented…it’s totally normal.

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Extreme drought exploded in NC this week. Exceptional drought has developed east of Charlotte:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NC
 

Hopefully this is the peak 

 I believe that there’s notable reporting lag. I don’t mean just that the map is as of 8AM of two days ago (4/28). 

 Note that not a single area of the SE got better on the map released today vs the map released one week ago (in addition to many areas getting worse). See the maps below. I don’t see how that’s reflecting reality. 

 Based on looking at rainfall reports across the SE for prior to 8AM on Tue there was moderate to heavy rainfall in portions of especially N AL to S NC during the several days prior to April 28th. Despite that, some of those counties actually got worse vs the map as of the prior weekly map. I believe that due to the time needed to gather reports that there’s reporting lag of perhaps a few days. In other words, these maps as of Tue at 8AM are in reality probably reflecting closer to, say, an average of 8AM on Saturday or whatever. Tue at 8AM is just the deadline to get reports in so they have time to compile the map for the Thu AM release. In reality, there’d be reports coming in  before Tue…say on a Saturday for example. And then that Sat submission could have been based on a Fri or Thu observation.

  Map released one week ago:

Map released today: no improvement anywhere and worse in many spots: not realistic imho…example much of my county got nearly 1” of rain on Sunday (heaviest since March 6th), well before Tue 8AM deadline for submission, and yet my county got a worse designation!

 Snapshot current RONI equivalent appears to me to be fairly steady near +0.3C (temporary pause).

I got ~0.15” this morning.

15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

Get ready 2 not torch in May per latest EW. No denying that!

Next 4 weeks:

2 hours ago, suzook said:

Just as I suspected. All the precip north of ATL. 

Plenty more to come over the next few days and hopefully over the next few weeks. I think the worst of this drought is done for a good portion of the SE.

 I got 0.8” on Sunday. That was the heaviest for me since at least March 6th.

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new CFS has a clue, there may not be a big disconnect between the traditional ONI and the RONI. It has the RONI peaking at around +2.7C and the traditional ONI peaking at around +3.1C in the November/December time frame. If (IF) correct, it would set a new RONI record, which currently stands at +2.5C for the 1982-83 super El Niño 

I have the most recent CFS RONI mean peak at near the 1982-3 record of +2.5 rather than +2.7:

It is the monthly of Nov that peaks near +2.7, which is near the 1982-3 monthly peak of +2.69 (Jan peak):

 So, the most recent CFS has warmed to a 1982-3 redux in strength.

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know. Recent heating seems to be overpowering any natural variability/oscillations. Obviously, not every year is warmer than the previous, but the change seems to be more pronounced over the past several years - and I would expect that trend to continue at least through next year with the likely strong El Nino. 

 

We agree that temps will very likely warm notably more rapidly due to this incoming likely strong El Niño as has occurred with past ones. But if a strong Nino in itself leads to a temporary more rapid warming, isn’t that consistent with this additional warming being due to a natural oscillation of the Pacific ocean rather than GW from AGW?

 Strong El Niños lead to more rapid jumps in global temps. That more rapid warming in itself is due to a natural oscillation, ENSO, bringing to the surface the even warmer water. Is this right?

 The latest BoA relative was just released. As expected, it cooled way down from the April Nino 3.4 prog of +0.6 as it is now a much more realistic -0.2 (that actually will likely end up slightly too cool as I expect it verify -0.1 to 0.0). However, despite that marked cooling of April, it warmed for its Sept prog from ~+2.35 to +2.6. Also, this is the first run with Oct, which it has at ~+2.85.
 
 On the one hand, one should keep in mind how much it overdid ONI in 2023. OTOH, this latest has RONI near the level it had ONI in 2023. So, although we should be aware of a quite possible warm bias at play here thus causing the RONI prog to be overstated, we should also be aware that it is currently implicitly progging ~0.5C warmer RONI vs 2023. Keep in mind that RONI peaked at only ~+1.5 in 2023-4. We’re very likely headed to a significantly warmer RONI peak in 2026-7:

BoA RONI prog from 2 weeks ago: a ridiculous +0.6 April and a +2.35 Sept:

Today’s BoA RONI prog: much more realistic cooler -0.2 April but Sept a warmer +2.6; first run with Oct (+2.85):

 The relative weeklies centered on last week were released this morning. They as expected based on following the dailies show a slowdown in the rate of warming in 3.4 and 3 (from 0.4 the prior week to 0.1 last week). Also, note that Nino 4 cooled 0.1. Nino 1+2, which is more volatile since it covers a much smaller area, cooled 0.3. I expect that this cooling there is just a blip that will reverse soon:

Date………………...1+2………3………3.4……..4

08APR2026         1.1       -0.2       -0.3        0.2
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

^Thanks. It’s no doubt an extremely warm OHC for so early thanks largely to the very rapid rate of warming earlier this month. That’s why I posted the comparison. However, I feel it’s also important that we keep in mind that this, like ONI, is a measure that is not “relative” to up to date ocean warming. So, in that regard, it’s a bit overdone to the warm side just like ONI is a bit overdone to the warm side in relation to RONI.

@bluewave @snowman19

 OHC and buoys both show sharp warming since early April:

OHC: only ~+1.6 early April

OHC: ~+2.0 to +2.1 mid April!

 Today’s EW rainfall next 2 weeks:

 4/27-5/3: AN to NN SE; ATL 1.5-1.75”

5/4-10: NN in SE (ATL 0.75”); wetter FL

Today’s Euro Weeklies continue to have BN next 2 weeks averaged out!

4/27-5/3:

5/4-10:

We can thank this H5 for cool 5/4-10 

 Getting our best rains (and just about our only rains of note) since April 5th’s nearly 1/2”. Currently have a band of heavy thunderstorms coming through with some rumbles. I haven’t watered since 4/22 and this will allow me to go further without going back to watering.  
 

 I ended up with ~0.8”, the heaviest here since at the very least March 8th.

 Phase 1 peaked way up at ~2.73 amplitude this month. Only 2018 (also ~2.73) and 2009 (~2.75) had a higher phase 1 peak in April going back to 1975. Both were pre-Nino years like 2026.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for posting.

 I like how Leon Simons’ tweet shows the stats and how strong the latest CFSv2 has RONI peaking. But I don’t like that he used the word “dystopian” and said “No one is prepared.” What do you and others think?

34 minutes ago, suzook said:

We got a big fat zilch! Zero point zero today. I bet we get absolutely nothing the next week too. I literally watch the radar, and 20 miles to my west the rain just disappears. I'm so done with this crap. We literally have had maybe 2 Inches of rain the last 4 months. This is insane. Oak trees are looking bad. Yellow leaves, and staring to drop leaves 

The last of the 3 (Tue night) looks much wetter on models for S of I-85. 
 

For most of SE, Tue night/Wed system looks wettest overall.

On 4/23/2026 at 7:14 PM, suzook said:

I mean at this point a half inch the next week would obviously be better than nothing. 

From FFC for 3 systems including today’s:

7 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.5-2.25" NORTH OF I-85, WITH PROGRESSIVELY 
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, DOWN TO ABOUT 0.5" IN 
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE 
STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR 
WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY

 Similar to 24 hours ago, the smoke here has returned though not to as much as yesterday. This should once again clear up this afternoon with the sea breeze.

 The SOI has dropped back down to -11. It may drop further temporarily. However, the models are not suggesting a further sustained drop to the 3 day long -30ish level of April 9-11 in the immediate future. So far, the SOI hasn’t been overly impressively negative for an oncoming very strong Nino vs history.

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In fairness to Webb, Paul Roundy said yesterday that this upcoming downwelling Kelvin wave is the strongest in history

 Even if the KW were to verify as strongest in history (however long the recorded history of KWs is), why the “Very very massive yikes”? That wording implies to me that that’s worrisome. Why would that be something to get worried about? Are we in trouble? To me this is just more of his being over the top and not professional.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

“Very very massive yikes”

Oh no! What are we going to do? Will we survive? Webb is so over the top. Yikes about what?

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Smoke is visible in this area due to the S GA fires.

 The low level smoke has cleared up in the area thanks to a SE sea breeze. A temp of 79 F with a very dry 37 F dew point despite a steady SE sea breeze at KSAV is surrealistic. I took advantage of it with an enjoyable evening walk.