GaWx
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Posts posted by GaWx
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Is Mr. Bastardi accurate in saying this is the coldest CFSv2 JFM for the U.S. ever forecasted on its site (back to 2012)? Opinions about this map? Keep in mind that this is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run:
Precip anoms from same run:
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Don’t
the messenger: 
I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?
Precip anoms from same run:
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1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:
Nothing to cope about.
Just a lot of these cities have records going back at least 100 years, some into the 1800s. Just funny to see one that's only 1948.Baker, MT, only goes back to 1988!
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Still watching Gulf early next week:
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3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Euro AI and its ensemble have been intriguing, and other guidance has been showing a signal for homebrew. The NHC hasn’t tagged it yet, but the Gulf/SE coast are worth watching in about a week.
From elsewhere:
Icon is the first Global that far out (this weekend) that shows low pressure forming in the Big Bend and hanging around the eastern panhandle. It gets to about 1007mb which isn’t particularly low. But it is at the surface. If it is close to being right, look for the other operational models to start going to that type of solution. -
We’re probably heading to a new warmest OHC of this Nino per this (often the far right portion of these graphs is later revised due to interpolation…so it isn’t certain yet):
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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Thanks, Adam.
It appears that Zeke’s using ONI based climo comparisons. If he were to instead use RONI, it would still be the warmest on record but not by as much as the 0.8C that he refers to. So, it would be an easy record breaker even by RONI standards.
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1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:
Kind of funny that an "all time" record doesn't even span 80 years.
Yeah, the wording does sound kind of funny. Obviously, nobody can ever say what the hottest, coldest, etc. of all time/ever is in any location since that can’t possibly be known. But saying something is an “all-time record” in a location is, of course, totally different and is what the NWS is referring to.
Now I’m going to get more technical: whereas one can’t possibly know the hottest or coldest ever in a location, they can know the hottest or coldest ever in a city (I’m saying “city” not “location”) if records have been kept since the city’s founding. Do you see the difference? -
9 hours ago, GaWx said:
I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
Nino 1+2 came in at +2.6 vs my guess of +2.7 to +2.8.
Nino 3.4 rose only from +1.2 to +1.3 vs my guess of a rise to +1.4. The daily relative 3.4 OISST graph (see below) had suggested a rise of 0.2 rather than 0.1. Perhaps the rise was just under 0.15 and this rounded down to a rise of 0.1?
But also, the image below of relative OISST for 3.4 suggests the relative 3.4 for last week (7/5-7/11 or the last 7 dots) was actually ~+1.5 (actually a little warmer than +1.5). So what’s going on? How come NOAA had it at only +1.3 being that they state it is OISST based? The +1.3 and this chart don’t jibe:
01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5
08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5-
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3 hours ago, bluewave said:
It’s also possible that the warming climate leading stronger and more extensive ridges and weaker troughs is playing a role also. The chart below shows the rising 500mb heights over North America and the adjacent oceans during DJF.
Chris, thanks.
A rise in H5 hts in a warming world makes perfect sense, of course. Per your graph, the bulk of the rise in winter in the portion of the globe that you specified has been since the early 1990s and there’s been a rise of ~4 dm from ~530 to ~534 since then.
In a warming world, we know that both the avg ridge and the avg trough H5 ht. will naturally be higher. But relative to each other, wouldn’t the differential remain ~same? I’ll make up some #s to illustrate my Q:
-let’s say that in the early 1990s that the avg ridge for the entire globe year-round was 575 dm and the avg trough was 540 dm
-let’s say that in the early 2020s that the avg ridge was 580 dm and the avg trough was 545 dm. The avg of each has to rise with a warming globe.
-That would mean that the mean difference remained at 35 dm. So, relative to the avg trough/ridge, the avg ridge/trough wouldn’t be stronger/weaker assuming this hypothetical example were near reality
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I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
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Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in these places in the NW US and I’m guessing there are others that I missed:
1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long):
ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKENSITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS
BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934
LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948
MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937
SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907
BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998
2) N UT
..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY,
UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN
2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002,
2021, AND 2022.
3) E ID:
THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES
TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100
DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.
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Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places:
A. How much did CC likely contribute to these?
B. How much did UHI likely contribute? Example: SLC now has 200K folks.
But OTOH, check out Miles City pop: still small at only 8.4K in 2020 with only a 17% increase since 1930 with records starting in 1937. Thus, UHI factor seems close to nil. Yet, they set their new all time record by 4F!
——————1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long):
ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKENSITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS
BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934
LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948
MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937
SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907
BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998
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2) N UT
..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY,
UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN
2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002,
2021, AND 2022.
Records at SLC go back to 1872!
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3) E ID:THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES
TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100
DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.
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How often does something like this happen in the NW US in July during a strong El Niño? I assume hardly ever. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places:
1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long):
ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKENSITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS
BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934
LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948
MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937
SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907
BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998
2) N UT
..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY,
UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN
2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002,
2021, AND 2022.
3) E ID:
THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES
TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100
DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.
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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:
Yeah, 1997-1998 was the last canonical super El Niño. The La Niña-like influence in December 2015 merging with the Nino standing wave was through the MJO 5. The precipitation impacts were also different from previous super El Niños.
In 2023-2024 we saw another MJO excursion through the IO and MC during January when the Southeast ridge emerged.
The pattern since May has seen the strongest heat and ridging across the CONUS outside a neutral or La Niña summer with a strong -PDO influence. The summer -PDO drop and +AMO increase has been a common feature during the 2020s.
So there are multiple ways for competing or overlapping marine heatwaves to interact with an El Niño. This summer is the most extreme example of a dominant -PDO pattern across the CONUS at the same time a record super El Niño is strengthening.
The 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niños showed that the interaction actually resulted in warmer winters conditions than 1997-1998. Both winters featured the El Niño ridge south of Hudson Bay building down further into the Eastern U.S. than normal.
But even if this event found a way to have the canonical 1997-1998 response, a +3.9 event alone without any -PDO or MC forcing influence could easily surpass 1997-1998 in spots for warmth.
Ridges have been getting stronger than troughs regardless of whether we have an El Niño or La Niña.
Chris,
Keep in mind that the mild 2015-6 avg. in the E US was so heavily dominated by the warmest Dec on record in many locations. I assume you realize that Jan-Feb wasn’t mild in the E US outside of New England with Jan actually being chilly VA S and SW:
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To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong.
I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7.
So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.-
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To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong.
I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7.
So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.-
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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:
Unfortunately, TAO doesn’t have buoy data for 160W. It has them at 170W and 155W.
For July of 2015, TAO does confirm that 30C didn’t make it as far E as 155W. But it did make it to 170W at 2N and 2S though not to 5S:
2N: avg ~30.0C
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2n170w_dy.ascii
2S: avg ~30.2Chttps://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2s170w_dy.ascii
But it was <30C (~29.8C) at 5S:
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst5s170w_dy.ascii
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How does July 2026 compare to July 2015 at 170W?2026 at 2N: avg ~30.35C or ~0.35C warmer than 2015
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2n170w_dy.ascii
2026 at 2S: avg ~30.60C or ~0.40C warmer than 2015
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2s170w_dy.ascii
2026 at 5S: N/A..so can’t compare———————
Summary: TAO confirms that 2026 is currently notably warmer (~0.4C) than July 2015 at 170W. But the avg tropical SST has also warmed since 2015. But it hasn’t warmed by as much as it’s closer to 0.25C warming, which tells me that July 2026 is warmer than July 2015 at 170W by 0.15C even on a relative basis.
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I hit 100.9 at home at 2:24PM today and then 101.1 at 2:35PM, which are the hottest I’ve seen on my thermometer so far this summer!
The good news though is that I’ve already heard thunder and prospects for a much cooler late afternoon than the prior 3 days are very high due to outflow boundaries from nearby thunderstorms at the least, and probably also actual rainfall.
It has already dropped to back quite a bit with 96.9 as of 2:51PM due to increased clouds and popups nearby.—————
Edit 6PM: Thunderstorm incoming here.
7:10PM update: that gave me a very nice 1”+ over the last hour, heaviest day of rain since June 18th. This is already enough to allow me to stop the 3 times a week watering for now.
Only light rain now. But looks like there will be additional significant rains starting soon per radar.Update 10:44 AM 7/13: I ended up with a very nice grand total of ~1.5” yesterday (7/12), which gets me to ~1.9” MTD.
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26 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:
I’m towards the “it’ll be a canonically coupled event” camp. And for the record I disagreed with takes during 24-25 and 25-26 that we’ll see predominate RNA pattern (we didn’t). So i’m not just saying it because I want it to be warm.
Per NOAA in DJF (my def. of neutral PNA is between -0.25 and +0.25)
1. 2024-5 was, indeed, very +PNA with a whopping 72 of 90 days being +PNA vs 18 neutral PNA and zero -PNA! That’s amazing for La Niña! Going back to 1949-50, the only other DJF without a single -PNA day was 2002-3!
2. 2025-6 was actually a more typical La Niña with more -PNA than +PNA: 49 -PNA, 14 neutral PNA, and 27 +PNA.
https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii
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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
I injected some sarcasm by mocking him a bit....guilty; but there was no need for the absurd racism accusation. Anyone with any familiarity with this thread knew what I was doing there. He has a tendency to respond to resistance in this truly vile manner that usually includes very derogatory insults, and in this case, a pathetic attempt to inject race as a means to vilify me rather than simply address the point.
Ray, Adam, and others,
I’m trying not to take sides. I just want the great discussion back in the main thread. Would y’all please take this fight to here in banter? TIA
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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Larry, I don't see the issue with reenforcing the fact that this July has been more representative of the -PDO data set and it has the developing super El Niño.
Ray, I have no issue, whatsoever, in anyone emphasizing the significance of the restrengthening -PDO, especially since I very recently posted about the up to date WCS PDO plunge. But it got out of hand from there and I’m trying to do whatever I can to get it back on track. That’s why I’m responding to your post here in banter. I’m not taking sides but just want that great thread to get back on track with high quality discussion.
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Folks, this thread has had great met. discussion recently. Please don’t let it get out of hand. Because this is my favorite met. thread at this BB, I’d appreciate it if the El Niño banter thread were used instead for certain posts, which is easy to do by quoting a post from here and responding to it at this link:
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1. Today it hit 100 for the high at KSAV for the 3rd day in a row, which hadn’t happened since that unforgettable record hot late May of 2019!
2. Although the chance wasn’t even mentioned since it was only 10%, the Savannah area had sudden evening pop-ups as a result of an outflow boundary coming S from earlier SC convection that collided with a W moving seabreeze per radar. It’s so cool to see these collisions!
At my home, I had a big temp. drop along with gusty winds and loud thunder. Several gusts to 43 mph were measured just off of Tybee.
I had two short periods of rain, but together they amounted to only ~0.01”. Other areas in the county like to the SW, to the S (Montgomery), and to the SE, especially Skidaway Island, had significant to heavy amounts. As a matter of fact:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1042 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.
..REMARKS..
1015 PM RAIN 1 NE SKIDAWAY ISLAND 31.95N 81.04W
07/11/2026 M2.51 INCH CHATHAM GA MESONET
UGA34 REPORTS 2.51 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THE PAST 3
HOURS.-
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July ‘26 obs
in Southeastern States
Posted
Just a trace of rain here today. “Only” 93 today at KSAV, which is actually NN, after a 9 days straight of upper 90s-100.