GaWx

1 hour ago, George001 said:

This El Niño is absolutely a beast, on track to be the strongest on record. However, I am extremely skeptical of El Niño conditions lingering into next June. If it were a weak El Niño I would be more inclined to buy the 2nd year Nino idea, but I would think it’s much more likely it collapses into La Niña rather than going from a super to moderate-strong El Niño. 

 Whereas historical stats certainly agree that La Niña is quite possible in ‘27-‘28, that same history says that there’s actually a decent chance for either neutral or, believe it or not, even El Niño in ‘27-‘28. Here’s why:

 El Niños peaking at +1.4+ occurred in the following 19 fall/winters and were followed by these:

+1.4+ Nino: subsequent fall/winter ENSO

1877-8: cold neutral

1888-9: strong Nina

1896-7: cold neutral

1899-1900: warm neutral

1902-3: moderate Nina

1905-6: weak Nina

1918-9: weak Nino

1930-1: cold neutral

1940-1: moderate Nino

1957-8: weak Nino

1965-6: cold neutral

1972-3: strong Nina

1982-3: moderate Nina

1986-7: moderate Nino

1991-2: weak Nino

1997-8: strong Nina

2009-10: strong Nina

2015-6: moderate Nina

2023-4: moderate Nina

—————————

So, these 19 +1.4+ El Niños were followed by these:

Strong Niña: 4 (21%)

Moderate Nina: 4 (21%)

Weak Nina: 1 (5%)

Cold neutral: 4 (21%)

Warm neutral: 1 (5%)

Weak Nino: 3 (16%)

Moderate Nino: 2 (11%)

—————————

Tally:

47% Nina

26% neutral

26% El Nino

———————

Conclusion:

La Nina is the best single possibility for ‘27-‘28 due to its large plurality (being at 47%), but neutral or even El Niño are obviously each quite possible as the two of them, combined, actually occurred about as often as La Nina after these strongest 19 El Niños on record.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that it's fluid, as is everything.....but it's been a consistent theme.

Here is the graphic from a month ago:

 

The graphics are tools, not substitutes for critical thinking. We have a developing record El Nino abutting a decade of cool ENSO residue throughout the N HEM....this resistance makes sense, and is not the product of some short-term perturbation. Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS.

 

This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS.

 

 

Excellent post as a whopping ~90% of the daily graphs since July 1st have averaged a -AAM in the 30N to 40N corridor! The 40N to 50N corridor also has a very high % that are -AAM although not quite as high as the 90% especially due to the last few weeks.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, El Nino is a beast in the tropics, but note the one significant pocket of -AAM on the globe happens to be right at our latitude, which make sense given the sensible disconnect with past major El Nino events. I appreciate the magnitude of the event, but just think it's a bit disingenuous to comment on how well coupled the El Nino is without mentioning that, since we all live within that latitudinal envelop.

 Thanks, Ray. Indeed, that 9/21/26 graph has the only significant pocket of -AAM centered at our latitudes as you noted. However, I assume you realize that these lat. based graphs are quite fluid, and thus it could look quite different at our latitudes within just a few days for all anyone knows. Also, the extremely + tropical latitudes overall have little choice but to drop back at least some soon. I’ll try to follow these daily from this point on.

 Here’s the brand new update for 0Z on 9/22/26: note that the -AAM pocket at our latitudes is still there and still the most significant -AAM area but isn’t as negative. Also, although 52N-61N has dropped, 63N to 90N is significantly more positive vs yesterday with a peak of +2 SDs at 78N vs +1.3 yesterday:

Compare to yesterday’s:

 The corresponding global mean for 9/22/26 is as expected per prior days’ CFSv2 progs on its last legs of the extreme level of +4+ although it fwiw keeps a very strong +3+ mean on all but a few days in early Oct:

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point. 

 Thanks for posting this.
 
 For the first time I examined past versions of this because I just realized that the excellent website has these graphs going back to 4/11/2022. So, there’s ~1,000 of these to compare to. Now I know why the relative global AAM standardized anomaly graphs have been at extreme levels (>+4). This latitudinal based graph for 9/21/26 is an absolute beast overall and thus exhibits the strength of this Nino very well! Why?

1. Back to 4/11/22, I couldn’t find even one other day’s graph with a more positive avg std. AAM anomaly for the area from -40 to +30! The straight avg std. dev above the mean for that huge area on 9/21/26 is clearly >2. Keep in mind that 2 std dev above the mean at any one latitude is way up at the 98th percentile and thus nearly 1/3 of the globe (20N to 17S) is >>+2 std dev/>>98th percentile!

2. The # of degrees of latitude with a negative AAM anomaly of the 180 total degrees on this 9/21/26 graph adds to only 29 degrees of the 180 total (16%). I couldn’t find even one other with that small a % of latitudes <0!

3. As one can see, most of the latitudes with a -AAM anomaly on 9/21/26 are only down to the 0 to -0.3 std dev range. The lowest is only down to -1.1, which is quite high for the lowest vs the other ~1,000 graphs. The highest lowest I could find is only barely higher (~-0.9) and it overall still had a much larger area below the 0 line than 9/21/26:

So, it appears that 9/21/26 has the smallest area <0 of any back to 2022!

Here again is this 9/21/26 beast of a +AAM anom by latitude. Keep in mind that just 1 std dev above the mean is up at the 84th percentile:

 Below is the corresponding relative global AAM, which since 0Z of 9/19/26 has been at an extreme level of >+4 std dev! This is probably the peak day as it should get back to <+4 by 9/23/26. How rare is 4 std dev above the mean? Per stat. formulas, only 1 in 31,574 days (that’s once per 87 years) gets to that level! (For 3 std dev, it’s ~once/year):

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Every couple of weeks will post the latest WB CFSV2 30 day monthly anomaly maps.

WB CFSv2 temp maps:

1. Have algo issues that lead to bad artifacts. I’ve posted on this here in the past. Here are some examples

-note the cold spot over S Lake Michigan and warm spot only 250 miles to the north over N Lake Michigan that are almost always on these WB maps; the real CFSv2 output essentially never has these

-note the E coast down to FL usually looks like a thin sharp warm barrier to any colder anomalies to the west; again, this essentially never is on the real output

2. WB CFSv2 maps are strongly cold biased for much of the E US. And this is the case even with WB using the colder 1981-2010 climo instead of 1991-2010, which the CFSv2 site uses! All one has to do to know this is to compare to the maps at the CFSv2 site.
 

 All 4 (DJFM) are notably too cold in almost all of the area away from the E coast. But I’ll focus on the Dec map to illustrate the strong cold bias:

-Chicago’s +0.5C/1F vs 1981-2010 on WB but the CFS site’s relevant 10 day mean maps (see below) are all significantly warmer and they average +2.25C/4F vs the warmer 1991-2020 meaning WB is ~4F too cold.

-SL’s 0.0 C/F vs 1981-2010 on WB but CFS actual maps are all significantly warmer and average +1.5C/3F vs 1991-2020 meaning WB is ~4F too cold

-Knoxville’s -1C/-2F vs 1981-2010 on WB but CFS actual maps have it at +0.6C/+1F vs 1991-2020 meaning WB’s ~4F too cold

-Despite the CFS site’s maps averaging AN from TN-NC north, WB in inland areas doesn’t have AN start til 500 miles to the N in N IL to N OH to NW PA and that’s even vs a colder climo base! That’s ignoring the immediate E coast, which has its own problems as already noted and is actually a bit too warm overall despite it being 4F too cold for much of the inland areas!

Relevant 10 day mean Dec maps at CFSv2 site:

9/10-19:

8/31-9/9:

8/21-30:

 

8/12-21:

@Stormchaserchuck1@donsutherland1

 I’ve already compared the current Nino to the prior one for both GLAAM and for OHC (like night and day).
 

1. Here’s a similar comparison of PDO:

Current: -0.71

Sept of 2023: ~-2.4 on Sept 19th though these are admittedly volatile as one can see it rose steeply Oct 1-20th:

2. SOI: 90 day mean is now way down at ~-22. The mean was down to only -8 for the same 90 day period in 2023. It was -18 in 2015 and -14 in 1997. A rough estimate using monthlies (due to no dailies that far back) for 1982 is -19 to -20.

 The only other 90 day mean as of Sept 20th back to 1876 that realistically could be about as low as 2026’s -22 based on monthlies is 1896 (incoming strong Nino) though that chance is <50% as it is more likely in the -20 to -21 range.

 So in summary:

2026: -22

2023: -8

2015: -18

1997: -14

1982: -19 to -20

1896: -20 to -21

 The other super-Ninos’ rough estimates: none even close to 2026, 1896, 1982, 2015:

1972: -13

1965: -14

1957: -5

1888: -11

1877: -10

OHC of 180-100W appears to currently be at its highest yet (~+3.3):

 To compare, look how low was the same point in Sept of 2023 (only ~+1):

Highest 2023-4 ever got was only just over +1.5:

 Further to my global relative AAM post above showing it >+4 since yesterday and to show the huge contrast to the prior El Nino, here are some of the graphs I saved from 2023-4, which all show a much lower amplitude (keep in mind that CFSv2 progs looking out especially past 2 weeks have been biased positive as comparing these graphs to each other clearly show):

11/6/23: +0.15

12/16/23: +0.7:

12/30/23: +1.15 (highest of any I saved from 2023-4)

1/8/24: +0.15


2/3/24: +0.5

2/21/24: +0.2

3/1/24: -0.35

 The global relative AAM remains in historic territory of +4+, which should last into tomorrow. This is probably its highest since Feb of 1998. For comparison, 2023-4 was no more than in the low +1 region on any of the graphs I saved with most of them <+0.5:

The AAM went over +4 as expected yesterday (9/19) per the image below, an extremely rare/historic event. The last time it was this high may very well have been in early Feb of 1998. It appears that it will likely stay >+4 into Sept 21st:

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Have a link to the actual main site?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

On the satellite wx page that was posted a while back, you can see the daily CFS run and the 10-run average. As youd expect, it changes wildly every day.

The main CFS site actually has 40 run averages (10 days x 4 runs/day).

53 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

2 reasons not to worry. First, the Cfs2 site has remained steady with temps it's been advertising for JFM. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

Second reason, the October Cansips comes out in only 11 days! Lol 

Also, the TT maps use colder 1984-2009 climo instead of the CFS site’s 1991-2020.

The TT 3 day (12 run) avg does jump around more than the CFS site 10 day (40 run) avg. Regardless, I haven’t seen any 3 day avg Feb recently nearly as cold as those record cold Febs that were on some Aug 3 day means in the SE to S Plains. Then again, that degree of cold was hardly believable especially that far out. They were dreamable for me but not believable. I’ll keep following the trends of both the TT 3 day means and the CFS site 10 day means.

54 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

99L's low-level circulation appears to be tightening up under the moderate convective canopy. There is clearly mid-level spin parked over the LLC now. This should end the named storm drought this morning. How strong it can get before environmental conditions deteriorate by Monday-Tuesday remains questionable. Though you can see the shear axis is positioned dangerously close, just south of the system, made evident by the screaming upper cirrus flow on satellite, I could easily see this topping out around 50-60 kts if it can remain just north if it. SSTs are warm enough, combined with a cold pool aloft, to continue supporting convection in the short term.

Recent 3 day mean CFS’ have cut way back on the degree of cold in Feb:

9/16-18

Compare that to this from 8/7-9:

9 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

You've been posting lots of UK runs showing a tropical cyclone lately with nothing coming of it. UK has been just as bad as GFS with its fantasycanes. 

There indeed have been UK runs with false TCs though not false canes. But in this case, all models have a low off the NE coast as opposed to it being just on the UK. But would it be T, ST, or ET and would it stay offshore?

Watch off the E coast next week. Here’s a hint of that from 0Z Uk:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 36.1N  70.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 25.09.2026  156  36.9N  69.7W     1000            47
    0000UTC 26.09.2026  168  39.1N  67.9W      997            41

7 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

No I hadn't . What model is this?

I was looking at the various primarily model outputs  for intensity fcst (see attachment).

The operational GFS and ECMWF do very little w/ the system.  ECMWF brings it down to 1012 mb and makes it a TD.  Since the overall environment is marginal and fcst to gradually degrade, I am not optimistic at this time more than a TD.

That being said, the convection that has developed on the N side in the last few hours is more organized, but we need to see if it persists.  The dry air present makes it prone to pulsing up and down.  This makes it hard to pull the trigger and declare.  At 03z, it could look quite good and get declared, and then all the convection could collapse, and we are back at square one.  So NHC tends to hold off until clear trend or consistency exists.  These kind of high-latitude systems are often a challenge!

Google Deep Mind

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The AAM is now up to +3.7 and has a good chance to be off the chart tomorrow!

AAM +3.9 & rising to very extreme levels. Should be off the chart on next runs:

18 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Convection has not been persistent enough.  For developing systems, you do not want irregular blobs pulsing.  There has been no curved banding evident yet for the system.  1016 mb c.p. shows a high environmental pressure field w/ synoptic gradient weak from the high centers to its NE and W

99L is in a very narrow margin area.  Look at the WV loop attached,  Strong shear evident t toe S, more starting to press in from the NW, and deformation zones N-W-S.  18z SHIPS output environment is not good.  Shear is high and 700-500 RH quite low..
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al992026/stext/26091818AL9926_ships.txt
 

Intensity models usually for nascent systems are bullish in taking them to min TS quickly, but about half of them currently do not even do that.  A testament to this Atlantic season I suppose when nothing can go "right!"

TD status appears mdt-high, but TS is more of challenge.

Did you see this?

56 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The signal that Katrina  was the sure sign of global warming causing ever increasing destruction to the USA was Gore style hype. 

 There may very well be a reduction in the # of storms due to GW because it has warmed the poles much more than the tropics. Because tropical systems bring heat out of the tropics to higher latitudes, it’s possible that the lower contrast means fewer storms albeit with perhaps stronger storms on average due to the warming oceans.
 

 Indeed, we’ve had stronger storms in the Atlantic basin with more cat 5 since 2016 per year than for the prior period. But OTOH, I do wonder if just having warmer oceans is enough to generate stronger storms. Isn’t it the contrast of the avg tropical ocean temp vs the avg global temp that matters most? The oceans in the tropical/subtropical regions are obviously warmer, but the rest of the globe is warmer, too. It used to be that ~79F was a crucial SST to support TCG. Is that crucial SST going to warm up due to GW?

Your thoughts?

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 This CFSv2 seasonal prediction site, which includes the ENSO SSTa forecasts, hasn’t updated in over 4 days:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

This is the most recent 10 day mean forecast for RONI:

this has a peak at +2.9, compares to peaks of ~+3.5 on some runs from late July, and was suggesting further drops in the peak being likely on later 10 day means due to most of the blue lines being lower than the red ones:

Follow-up: I emailed the 2 contacts who are listed at this CFSv2 site. Just minutes later, the site was updated!

 Here’s the brand new latest 10 day mean RONI forecast: as expected, the progged peak dropped even further to +2.8. Compare that to the +3.5 runs of late July. It appears it could even drop to +2.75 later this month based on the red vs blue lines:

4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Remember vividly the declarations of ever increasing disaster during the Katrina year.  Has not happened and various drivers of our patterns have changed a lot in last 25 years 

I don’t know about “ever increasing disaster”, but you must know that there have been some bad seasons since including 2008, 2012, and most of 2016-24. 2016-24 was one of the worst 9 year periods for the SE US overall. Fortunately 2025 as well as 2026 so far have given us a much needed break, especially after the horrible 2024. But that’s less than 2 seasons.

 Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies suggested a pretty active period in and near FL during the week of Sept 28-Oct 3rd. This suggests a recurving TC in that area is quite possible:

 This matches long-term climo well, which is at least close to the most active period for FL throughout the season:

 These 5 strong+ El Niño analogs with hits in FL during or near this active period shown on the Weeklies suggest to be wary especially in FL then although it’s interesting that these 5 were all 1902 and earlier as the subsequent 11 strong+ Ninos didn’t have a FL hit around then:

1902:

1899:

1896:

1888:

1877:

99L is now a cherry:

1. Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since 
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. However, just a small 
increase in organization is likely to result in the formation of a 
tropical depression as soon as later today. The system is expected 
to move slowly over the next couple of days remaining southwest of 
the Azores, followed by a turn to the southwest by early next week, 
when environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable 
for additional development. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.