GaWx

 Today was the 3rd day in a row of Phoenix hitting 105, which not only obliterates another daily record but also again ties with the hottest on record in April. The day prior to the 105 string was 102. Prior to this string, the hottest on record in all of March was only 100, set on March 26th in 1988.

 More 100+ days are quite possible next week! Crazy!

On 3/19/2026 at 1:30 PM, roardog said:

I probably should have been more clear in my post. I was referencing the MJO impacting the developing Nino. The strong phase 7 and 8 in 2023 was looked at as an indication that the Nino could get very strong. This year it's in 7 and 8 again but weaker. I just thought it was interesting.

  Interesting because 2015 and 1997 had similar strong 7/8 in March to 23. OTOH, the strong to super Ninos of 1982 and 1991 didn’t while the weak 2014 did:

2014 had strong 7/8 but ended up very weak Nino:

 Some of this is due to UHI at Phoenix with them at 78 

ARIZONA HOURLY REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
400 AM MST SAT MAR 21 2026  
  
NOTE: FAIR INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO  
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY.  
  
AZZ001>003-036-211200-  
NORTHWEST ARIZONA  
    
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  
BULLHEAD CITY  CLEAR     72  27  18 CALM      29.83S TC  22             
KINGMAN        CLEAR     63  21  20 CALM      30.02F TC  17             
  
  
AZZ004>008-015-016-018-211200-  
NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA  
    
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  
GRAND CANYON   CLEAR     29  17  61 CALM      30.26F TC  -2             
WILLIAMS       CLEAR     39  18  41 S12       30.26F WCI  32 TC   4     
PRESCOTT       CLEAR     51  21  30 S7        30.15F TC  11             
FLAGSTAFF      CLEAR     36  19  50 CALM      30.28F TC   2             
PAYSON         CLEAR     57  21  24 N3        30.16F TC  14             
PAGE           CLEAR     57  18  21 CALM      30.08F TC  14             
  
  
AZZ009>014-017-211200-  
NORTHEAST ARIZONA  
    
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  
WINSLOW        CLEAR     43  12  28 E6        30.16F TC   6             
SAINT JOHNS    CLEAR     46   7  20 S3        30.20F TC   8             
WINDOW ROCK    CLEAR     32   9  38 CALM      30.28F TC   0             
SHOW LOW       CLEAR     43   7  22 SE6       30.26S TC   6             
  
  
AZZ540-542>544-546-548-211200-  
GREATER PHOENIX AREA  
    
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  
PHOENIX        CLEAR     78  33  19 E13       29.84F TC  26             
BUCKEYE        CLEAR     66  16  14 N5        29.85F TC  19             
LUKE AFB       CLEAR     70  26  19 N6        29.83F TC  21             
DEER VALLEY    CLEAR     71  25  17 NE3       29.87F TC  22             
SCOTTSDALE     CLEAR     68  40  35 CALM      29.87F TC  20             
MESA-FALCON    CLEAR     75  25  15 N3        29.86F TC  24             
MESA-GATEWAY   CLEAR     67  26  20 E8        29.89S TC  20             
CHANDLER       CLEAR     67  34  29 CALM      29.87S TC  20             
  
  
AZZ539-553-211200-  
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY AND PINAL COUNTY  
    
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  
CASA GRANDE    CLEAR     64  19  17 CALM      29.89F TC  18             
GILA BEND      CLEAR     73  19  13 CALM      29.83F TC  23             
  
  
AZZ503-504-507>509-211200-  
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA  
    
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  
TUCSON         CLEAR     64  20  18 SE7       29.98F TC  18             
DAVIS-MONTHAN  CLEAR     64  17  16 E5        29.98F TC  18             
NOGALES        CLEAR     61  20  20 CALM      30.07F TC  16             
SIERRA VISTA   CLEAR     70  13  11 W10       30.12F TC  21             
DOUGLAS        CLEAR     55  22  27 CALM      30.08F TC  13             
SAFFORD        CLEAR     58  17  20 E8        30.00S TC  14             
  
  
AZZ532-211200-  
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA  
    
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  
YUMA           CLEAR     73  35  25 S5        29.78F TC  23             
  

-Phoenix has set new (or tied) daily records highs 28 times during the last 365 days. 

-94 of the 366 days have record highs there set in 2023-6 due mainly to CC but with UHI also being a factor although UHI is normally more of a factor for warm lows.

-There are a mere 3 record lows set since 1980!

Yuma’s hottest on record in March prior to 2026 was 102. Yesterday was 106 and today was 109!! The earliest 109+ prior to today was May 2nd (1947) when it hit 111!!

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was the most brutal day during the ongoing epic heatwave in the West. A new U.S. national temperature record for March was set at four locations.

 The new hottest in CA in March as shown above is 112. That’s only 1 short of the April hottest!

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although the flash analysis isn't peer reviewed, it is derived from a peer-reviewed methodology, which provides credibility. These studies provide value, as they provide an alternative to pure statistical research. The corroboration between the modeling and statistics enhances the quality of their findings. Further, studies concerning prior extreme heat outbreaks in the Southwest have all found a strong link to climate change.

As for March 2026, March 2026 is poised to become Phoenix's first March to break outside the 99% confidence interval based on 30-year climate data.

 

Don and others,

 For obvious reasons I’m having trouble with what’s bolded from this article:

"The area of the U.S. being hit by extreme weather in the past five years has doubled from 20 years ago, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Extremes Index, which includes various types of wild weather, such as heat and cold waves, downpours and drought."

———

 This is unclear. Are they implying that cold waves have increased since 20 years ago due to CC?

Fwiw this article was just released:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/early-southwest-heat-latest-parade-070743575.html

 Note this paragraph:

“Climate scientists at World Weather Attribution did a flash analysis — which is not peer-reviewed yet — of whether climate change was a factor in this Southwest heat wave. They compared this week's expected temperatures to what's been observed in the area in March since 1900 and computer models of a world with climate change. They found that ‘events as warm as in March 2026 would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change.’”

 Any opinions about this article?

I read this today from a pro-met. @donsutherland1and others, I’m curious about your thoughts about this:

“Many of the radiation absorption bands for CO2 OVERLAP with H2O. H2O is 95% of the planet's greenhouse gas effect(we would be a frozen wasteland without the BENEFICIAL greenhouse effect).  Turns out that in areas with higher dew points, those overlapping absorption bands ARE ALREADY SATURATED by H2O!! In those cases and in those bands, it doesn't matter how much CO2 that you add. When they are already absorbing 100% of the long wave, heat radiation of what they are capable of because of water vapor/H2O, adding CO2 in those bands will have near 0 impact.

Now the kicker. Cold places lack water vapor in the dry air so CO2 will be impacting bands that are NOT saturated from H2O absorbing. We can see that on the graph above. However, DESERTS also lack water vapor, so they too are seeing a greater impact from CO2 than the rest of the planet at the same latitude. Even DESERTS located in already hot places, like Phoenix.

Turns out that DESERTS are warming at a similar, elevated rated to the Arctic.”

Opinions?

2 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

50 states x 12 months = 600 records for "highest temperature for state X during month Y".

To be honest - breaking one of those every now and then seems like not so much of a big deal, and would be expected regardless of whether the planet is warming or not.

Point being - perhaps showing trendlines of more broad data would be a lot more meaningful and poignant that touting a given broken single-state record for a given month.   As it is these posts with their desert graphics, and the obvious troll phrasing, seem very... tabloidish (or perhaps clickbait-ish being the modern equivalent), especially on a forum that thrives on deep data analysis.

 

Good point although the good possibility of Phoenix approaching if not reaching 105, the hottest on record in April, during some point within the next 3 days is amazing. But Don, myself, and others realize that their rapid growth’s caused increasing UHI has also been a notable factor.

 Speaking of UHI though, isn’t that more of a factor for warm lows than hot highs? 

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would give the CPC a "C" grade

I think it was a D.

I had another great walk this evening with upper 40s, light winds, and dewpoints in the middle 30s.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The final countdown 

 Anthony, today’s NAO forecast is consistent with yesterday’s (bad/+):

Yesterday’s GEFS:

Today’s GEFS:

 Could an earlier than avg final strat warming be coming next week? This suggests some chance. Opinions? @snowman19

Gainesville, FL (aka Hogtown) got down to 30! Impressive radiation like usual.

KTLH 30

KSAV 31 (official SAV station, the airport)

KSVN 34 (very likely more representative of my low)

Today’s MJO forecasts still are all in phases 7 and 8, the coldest in Baltimore (as rep. city) in March on average following La Niña winters:

@EastonSN+

1 hour ago, roardog said:

There’s a lot of things that make a very strong Nino look likely but I can’t shake the fact that it’s only been 3 years since we’ve had one and the PDO is still negative. March isn’t over yet but right now the 30 day SOI is still extremely positive. As Chuck showed, the very strong Ninos never have an extremely positive March SOI. I guess we’ll see. 

And the Euro, one of the warmest currently, does have a warm bias plus RONI is ~0.5 lower right now. In addition, Eric’s bold calls shouldn’t be mistaken for him necessarily being likely to be right as he’s had his share of busts.

 Today’s MJO forecasts are suggesting it may back up into phase 7 in a portion of the rest of this month but otherwise be in phase 8. Those two phases have averaged the two coldest March post winter La Niña phases in Baltimore, which tells me it will be rather difficult for warmth to win out overall the rest of this month despite some of the days being warm in between cold periods:

GEFS:

EPS:

3 hours ago, suzook said:

28 degrees at 5:30 am, will probably drop another degree or 2 before sunrise. This blows. A forecast high of 48 with wind chills in the low 30's this afternoon. We usually have outdoor activities for st Pat's day downtown. I'll stay home. I already see black on the tips of just bloomed perennials. Wondering how much damage there will be to plants and such that bloomed already. 

 From summery low 90s in some areas just a few days ago back to winter now! It was down to 32 all of the way down to parts of N FL including Cross City, Crestview, and Pensacola! KSAV was 34. Look out tonight for areas that radiate decently to have even colder lows. Some of these areas have freeze warnings for tonight.

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Those were not 65+ knots. Those would be marked in black. 

My bad. I misinterpreted the high wind report categories. Now I realize that there were none of 65 knots+ and there also were no large hail reports.

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Most of those came with the NCFR last evening more than likely. 

Are you saying that the front itself produced that many 65+ knot reports?  If so, wow!

 I have just read some very sad news. Roger Smith, who ran the annual hurricane season forecast contests in this forum at least going back to 2016, passed away on February 24th. He put a lot of thought into these contests as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios. The large number of contestants is all one needs to know to realize how well run these were.
 May Roger rest in peace.

https://www.clarksfuneral.ca/obituaries/Roger-James-Smith?obId=47411042

 This is very sad to read.  Roger also ran annual AmericanWx hurricane season forecast contests at least going back to 2016, which is how I best knew him. He put a lot of thought into these as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios.
 May Roger rest in peace.

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

 I just took an enjoyable walk in 47F windy post cold frontal 34F dew-point Canadian air at a park. I love strong cold fronts! Trash bins and other things were blown over there from this wind. Looking forward to more walks in this great wx the rest of the week.

 Looking for a low in the mid 30s at KSAV followed by a mid 50s high tomorrow making for one of the coldest St. Patrick’s Day parades in a long time! Erin go Blarney!