GaWx

From several showers and a severe warned thunderstorm, I received ~1.75” yesterday. That put me then at ~3.80” MTD.

 I received more rain overnight of varying intensities and it’s still falling very lightly with constant rain since late last night. I’ll post the total for this later. It will be >0.5”.

 No more watering for at least awhile!

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the other overlapping marine heatwaves are adding warmer La Niña-like influences to the mix. Especially when the forcing extends closer to the Maritime Continent which pumps the Southeast ridge. 

This is why the pattern has been so much warmer in the East this spring into June than we have typically have seen during past developing super El Niños.

But the next 10 days look more Nino-like with a trough centered near the Great Lakes and less warmth in the East.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=high&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=5&sdate=2026%2F06%2F01&edate=2026%2F06%2F19&cmap=RdYlBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

2026 warmed to +1.2 relative OISST on June 17th, which is 0.1 warmer than the warmest week on record (back to 1982) centered nearest to June 17th, 1997’s +1.1:
 
2026: +1.2

1997: +1.1

1987: +1.0

2015: +0.9

1982: +0.8

1994: +0.7

1991: +0.6

2002: +0.5

2009: +0.4

2023: +0.4

Data source:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

For obvious reasons, I’m taking this with a humongous grain and thus assume this won’t verify closely:

 I got a 2nd thunderstorm within the last hour. I’ll have a grand total later.

I had received ~0.65” of rain since my last report. 

 In addition, today I’ve been getting a strong thunderstorm that has had a warning since ~4PM. I got 1”+ very quickly. Some CTG lightning nearby. Rain now letting up.

On 6/13/2026 at 2:03 PM, GaWx said:

 Models are suggesting -SOI will lessen. There’s chance -SOI will end 6/16. If so, could be 6 days of +SOI before goes back -.

 Guessing per models

6/14: -15 to -20

6/15: -6 to -13

6/16: +5 to -6

6/17: +8 to -5

6/18: +16 to +1

6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)

6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2

 

 

 

 

 
SOI daily: Prediction from 6/13………actual

6/14: -15 to -20…….-25

6/15: -6 to -13…….-13

6/16: +5 to -6………..-3

6/17: +8 to -5……….-1

6/18: +16 to +1……….+4

6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)………?

6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2………..?

On 6/12/2026 at 8:38 PM, GaWx said:

 Today’s -29 is the 33rd straight day with a sub -5 SOI. Tomorrow will make 34. That’s pretty historic because that will make it the 3rd longest sub -5 streak on record back to 1991! The only two longer ones were in 1997-8 and they were extremely long: 51 and 42 days, respectively.

 The beauty of the SOI is that it doesn’t appear to be strongly affected by CC. Thus it doesn’t need a RONI-like adjustment to remain a good indicator of ENSO strength.

The sub -5 SOI streak ended at 36 days. The only longer ones back to 1991 are the 51 and 42 day streaks of 1997-8.

On 6/11/2026 at 9:43 PM, Upstate Tiger said:

So we have officially entered El Niño phase.  Most agree it will be strong and possibly super El Niño.  
 

The strongest El Niño on record was the super El Niño of 1877/1878.  It actually started in late 1876 and was fully established in spring 1877.  
 

The winter of 1877/1878 was known as the year without winter, especially in the Midwest and eastern US.  Farmers actually planted in February.  
 

This El Niño is starting a little later and no two are the same but at this point, an above average temp winter would be a good bet.  

 In the Midwest it was, indeed, quite mild. But in the NE, it averaged only moderately AN with Dec AN but Jan-Feb pretty close to normal. Jan actually was slightly BN in some cases like at NYC.

 In the SE, only Dec was a mild month. Jan was slightly to moderately BN and Feb was not too far from normal. Thus DJF averaged only slightly AN to NN in the SE.

SE example for DJF 

Asheville: 43.6, 35.2, 39.8

Jan was 35.2/BN with 8.5” of SN (double the normal) from two ~4” snowstorms. The coldest was 7F.

Knoxville was similar. Savannah also had a BN Jan.

 TS Arthur has been born:

 Link to Invest 90L thread:

 Woodstock, GA, (25 miles N of ATL) had 3 widely spaced thunderstorms yesterday!

 It looks like my home area in SAV had several rounds of significant rainfall the last 72 hours with the heaviest being ~1.1” for the 24 hours ending at 7AM today using Cocorahs as a guideline. For the last 72 hours, I roughly estimate 1.4” fell at my location, which is also near my MTD.

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Flash flooding in the south as odds increase…

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the 
trough remains inland.  However, the system could re-emerge over the 
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and 
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the 
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into 
Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern 
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should 
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days 
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and 
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible 
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm 
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in products issued by your 
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
  

 I’ll consider this a win for Bastardi if it actually becomes a TC. He predicted back in April a Gulf TC due to MJO phase 8 being bullish for Gulf TCs in June. This could provide major drought relief for a good portion of the SE!

 This is now Invest 90L:

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902026.dat

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Here are CPC numbers for all 4 Enso areas for 6/10/15 & 6/10/26:

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3ⁿ

If you divide Enso 1.2 anomaly into the other 3 areas' anomalies for both years, you get respectively  60%, 45% and 45% in 2015 and 59.25%, 55.55% and 48.15% this year. Comparing the 2 years, Enso 3 is nearly identical for both years and 3.4 and 4 are a hair warmer this year than 2015.

Obviously, there may be other ways to figure it, but I'd have to say that they are very similar with a slight edge to 2015 as being more east based under this method.

P.s. @GaWx will surely check my math! Lol

 Thanks, Mitch. Indeed, “E based” can be defined in numerous ways as it’s not black and white, of course.

 Here are the relative anomalies for the strongest of years in 3.4 as of the closest week centered on June 10th back to 1982:

                            1+2         3         3.4         4

09JUN1982        -0.2        0.8        1.0       1.1 

11JUN1997         3.0        1.3        0.8        0.2

12JUN2002        -0.3        0.6        0.8        0.7

10JUN2015         1.8        0.8        0.6        0.7

10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7

 Just looking at this period rather than model progs for fall/winter, here are my rankings of most to least E based:

1997, 2026, 2015, 2002, 1982 though 2026 is only slightly ahead of 2015

 The latest OISST 3.4 1991-2020 anom of +1.607, which is for June 14th, is the warmest for this Nino to date and is ~0.075C warmer than that for June 13th making it the largest warming for any day since June 5th:

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx  Is the current MEI rise from March through May actually the biggest rise on record for that index like I’m reading on twitter? I only have the data through 1979 right now

I see only 1979+ in the table. Based on it, the 2026 rise from MA to AM of 0.9C (-0.6 to +0.3) is the biggest rise for MA to AM since at least 1979. The previous biggest was the 0.7C of 2015:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

On 6/13/2026 at 12:38 PM, GaWx said:

 Despite being steady last 7 days, I predict that 3.4 will warm by 0.3 in Mon’s update because of how the weeks compare.

Nino 3.4 officially warmed by 0.2 in today’s update from +0.7 to +0.9:

                               1+2        3         3.4      4 

06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Area on 6/13….8.66 million sq km

Heres how other years faired on the same date (I.e, 2012 had 420k less area than this year on the same date)

 

2012: -420k

2025: -130k

2019: -60k

2016: -50k

2007: +150k

2020: +190k

2011: +230k

2010: +240k

2023: +250k

2022: +280k

2021: +300k

2017: +310k

 

Still a lot of time left in the critical month of June. We’re lagging 2012 decently but it’s definitely possible to catch up. On the flip side, if we continue to lose ground to 2012 over the next couple weeks, then we can rule out a new record this year. Most of the cake gets baked in May and June in the arctic sea ice workd

 June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958!

This is pretty surreal in our warming world:

2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C!

2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C:

1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C:

1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C:

It was pouring here in Woodstock in Cherokee County N of ATL just a few minutes ago with a passing shower.

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There is some overlap, but ENSO and the PDO effect different areas in the Pacific - ENSO is further east and PDO is further west. 

Chuck and others, check this out:

June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958!

This is pretty surreal in our warming world:

2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C!

2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C

1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C

1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C

7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Much less hot today we haven’t broken 94 yet. Mostly overcast and not as humid

RDU high a “much cooler” 96 today vs 103 yesterday. 

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

 Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??:

7/25: ~-0.6

8/25: ~0

9/25: ~0

10/25: ~-0.3

11/25: ~0

12/25: ~+0.35

1/26: ~0

2/26:~-0.5

3/26: ~-0.6

4/26: ~-0.6

5/26: ~-0.7

 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It was last year at this time when the PDO took its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I  think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry. 

Yes, ncep ~-0.75 to -1 vs WCS

2PM vs 24 hrs ago: RDU 7 cooler, more clouds, and NW vs SW winds

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

Does it look like the extreme -SOI will continue? It'll be interesting to see how low the 30 day average will go?

 Models are suggesting -SOI will lessen. There’s chance -SOI will end 6/16. If so, could be 6 days of +SOI before goes back -.

 Guessing per models

6/14: -15 to -20

6/15: -6 to -13

6/16: +5 to -6

6/17: +8 to -5

6/18: +16 to +1

6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)

6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2