GaWx

 So did forky, who has special privileges and staff powers for who knows what reason, just remove the Super El Nino banter thread that I posted a link to 30 minutes earlier? Or did he remove my ability to view it?

Beautiful! Did anyone of note predict this? At a minimum, the Arctic ice news isn’t all bad right now and that’s putting it mildly:

 The link below is to the banter thread, which hasn’t had a post since Sept 28th while there have been dozens of near worthless banter posts clogging up this thread with poop since then making it harder for readers to find the much higher quality posts. How does that make sense?

12Z UKMET is at its strongest of any run so far at landfall with 979 mb at 12Z on Sat at AL/MS border. Then it heads N along the border followed by NNW/NW into MS. The center is in NW MS as of GA/AL gametime. Tornadoes look like a problem in much of N FL/AL/GA while heavy rain and strong winds hit N MS/Memphis area Sat afternoon/evening due to the tightest gradient in that area at that time. Interesting.

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

it’s giving you the historical ERA 5 reanalysis average up until 5/1/27. You’ll notice all the lines converge together starting between march and april because a) the PV becomes weaker and less variable by the spring and b) models tend to default to climatology very far out. So the ensemble forecast mean (black) will start to closely match the hindcast climate mean (red) and ERA5 mean (blue) between March and April. 

 

Also it’s important to note the red line being lower than the blue line between Dec and March. What that’s telling you is that when the model tried to reconstruct a hindcast of past years, it was forecasting a weaker PV than the actual ERA5 reanalysis. So it’s saying the model has a weak PV bias in its forecasts during the heart of winter. 

Thanks. So, what does all of this say in regard to the ECMWF’s forecasted weaker than avg SPV in Jan/Feb? Is that a legit signal of a likely weaker than normal SPV then?

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any comments about what this graph implies?

 Why is prog of ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than prog of ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Is ERA5 its own projection model? Any explanation would be appreciated.

 
 Everything Daniel Swain says makes sense. ONI is essentially the sum of ENSO and GW, which is what I’ve been saying and is literally what he says here:

“absolute (ONI) index, which includes climate warming signal…”

 If you want to measure the pure ENSO signal, itself, and compare that to the pure ENSO signal of past events, the recommendation is to use RONI as NOAA suggests in their official RONI table going back to 1950.
 
 I understand that warmer air holds more water vapor and thus allows for increased rainfall. Thus, ONI better measures increased absolute warmth/rainfall since it adds the GW component to the ENSO component.

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

ERA5 is not a prognosis, it’s a reanalysis of the daily mean averaged out over several decades (i think it starts 1940 but someone can correct me here). The black is the actual forecast ensemble mean 

Thanks. But with ERA5 not being a prognosis, why is its blue line going all of the way til 5/1/27?

 Any comments about what this graph implies?

 Why is prog of ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than prog of ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Is ERA5 its own projection model? Any explanation would be appreciated.

14 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Still waiting on that big Nino 1+2 drop modeled by the CFSv2. Any day now. 

 

The CFS keeps missing too low and thus readjusting Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 higher while doing pretty much the opposite for 3.4 and 4 thus making it more and more E based from the already record E basedness.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Starting to see +12C subsurface anomalies as Nino 3.4 reaches +3.4 for the first time.

 

 
This is the official RONI version of yours, which takes into account the amount of GW between Ninos (specifically as regards the warming of the global tropical SSTs) and thus gives a better comparison of Nino strength from Nino to Nino: 26 has been record warmest since early Aug and currently is 0.13 warmer than 97, 0.47 warmer than 82, .61 warmer than 15, and 1.47 warmer than 23:

 Here’s the new Euro RONI prog: 26-7 remains strongest, even warmer than the rapidly warming late peaking 82-3 although only barely warmer than 83 in Jan:

0Z Euro has landfall near Biloxi ~8AM CDT Sat at 986 mb.

The 0Z UKMET landfalls at Mobile at 987 mb ~4AM CDT Sat, which is weaker than its lowest SLP of 978 mb 12 hours earlier in the N Gulf. The center then moves N over W AL before turning left into EC MS and then NE MS. Beneficial rains fall over much of the SE.

15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

MEI updated and has 2.4 for AS.

That’s interesting that it dropped slightly. But it’s still a record high back to 1979 for AS. For all bimonthlies, the record high is 2.9 (AM of 1983).

Very nice ice!

12Z UKMET is strongest run yet with a H (65 knots/983 mb) hitting Biloxi followed by a move N into MS:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.6N 93.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2026 24 21.6N 93.7W 1005 29
0000UTC 08.10.2026 36 22.0N 93.2W 1003 28
1200UTC 08.10.2026 48 22.6N 92.4W 1000 35
0000UTC 09.10.2026 60 22.7N 90.9W 999 31
1200UTC 09.10.2026 72 24.6N 89.6W 995 41
0000UTC 10.10.2026 84 26.4N 89.2W 992 45
1200UTC 10.10.2026 96 29.2N 88.7W 983 65
0000UTC 11.10.2026 108 32.3N 90.0W 994 26
1200UTC 11.10.2026 120 33.4N 90.4W 1003 27
0000UTC 12.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

 I wonder if the GA/AL game in Tuscaloosa on Sat night (7:30PM EDT start) will be heavily impacted by the Gulf tropical cyclone forecasted to form soon. Any guesses?

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

For Saturday the SPC highlights the coastal boundary moving north. Should be all kinds of shear there, especially as warmer air moves onshore.

I'm still watching for later Saturday farther inland across Alabama. If a hybrid system can get an open quasi warm sector going, I could imagine some north-south bands of low toppers too. Would need the rain shield to scoot away and destabilization. Otherwise, the coastal front would be the focus. My zone is TBD for a couple days still. Need a named storm to model. For now, from the SPC for Sat... 

At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.

 Do you think that the GA/AL game in Tuscaloosa on Sat night (7:30PM EDT start) will be heavily impacted?

Edit: NHC track takes it past Tuscaloosa early afternoon. That tells me that the game itself during the evening shouldn’t be affected too heavily.

0Z UKMET: landfall ~175 miles W of 12Z run with it near far SE LA and then MS. Strongest run yet with high end TS/990 mb:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 22.2N 92.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2026 60 22.7N 91.7W 1003 30
0000UTC 09.10.2026 72 22.9N 89.9W 1001 30
1200UTC 09.10.2026 84 25.4N 88.6W 999 39
0000UTC 10.10.2026 96 26.4N 88.5W 997 48
1200UTC 10.10.2026 108 29.2N 88.7W 990 58
0000UTC 11.10.2026 120 32.1N 89.5W 992 29
1200UTC 11.10.2026 132 33.8N 88.8W 1002 25
0000UTC 12.10.2026 144 38.4N 83.2W 1003 12
1200UTC 12.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

 Today’s Euro weekly for 10/5-11 is the final one:

 Look how much the cold signal for 10/5-11 in the E weakened overall over the last 10 days. However, the signal remained at about the same level in from the NE to down the coast NYC to  Hatteras:

 Sep 25th run for 10/5-11: much stronger cold signal

 Week 2 (10/12-18) is warm. Just a few days ago it was cool.

 Other than week 1, the only other cool E weak is week three, 10/19-25: this week has been mainly coolish over the last week of runs:

Today’s NOAA weekly relative ENSO release for last week:

23SEP2026         3.9        3.1        2.2        0.1
 30SEP2026         4.5        3.3        2.3        0.1
 
 Nino 1+2 warmed up strongly (0.6) to +4.5! For the week, it obliterates the prior record back to 1981 of +3.5 (1997). It is only barely shy of the all time record for any week of +4.6 (6/29/1983).

 Nino 3 warmed up by 0.2 to +3.3. That’s a new record high for the week with it beating the +2.8 of 1997. The record for any week is +3.6 (12/29/1982).

 Nino 3.4 warmed slightly to +2.3. This barely beats the +2.2 of 1982 for the week. The warmest for any week is +2.9 (12/29/82).

 Nino 4 remained at only +0.1, which in combo with the way warmer Nino 3 and Nino 1+2, makes ‘26 easily the most E based Nino on record.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

60%/80% now:

12Z UKMET: shifts back east from 0Z run’s far SE LA to MS/AL border track to new track into FL Pan for mid-grade TS followed by NNE and then NNW move in AL:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 22.8N 92.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2026 72 24.0N 91.4W 1002 30
0000UTC 09.10.2026 84 25.2N 89.4W 999 34
1200UTC 09.10.2026 96 26.7N 88.0W 996 44
0000UTC 10.10.2026 108 28.7N 86.9W 995 49
1200UTC 10.10.2026 120 32.1N 86.1W 999 26
0000UTC 11.10.2026 132 34.5N 87.3W 1001 26
1200UTC 11.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

 The thread for the Gulf tropical threat has been started:

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

ECMWF October Nino plumes adjusted upward in Nino 1&2 and Nino 3, stayed consistent from the previous month in Nino 3.4, and lowered the forecast for Nino 4. 

 

 We’re almost certainly heading for the most E based Nino on record for good or for bad. The SE ridge should be held back bigly, which would be really good from my perspective.

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Euro monthly October out

Here's temps. Similar to September. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000

Here's all other product link:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

Thanks, Mitch.

Here are the Euro Oct progs for winter going back to 2017-8 for comparison purposes and how they did in the E US:

2026:

2025: much too warm

2024: much too warm

2023 (Nino): too cold

2022: too cold (not warm enough)

2021: net slightly too warm (close SE, too warm NE)

2020: net too warm (much too warm SE; avg of too warm NE but close N Eng)

2019: pretty close (slightly too cold SE but close NE)

2018 (Nino): net too cold (close NE but much too cold SE):

2017: close

————————
Tally:

-did well in 19 and esp. 17

-did pretty well 21

-did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18

-did terribly 25, 24

-too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE

-NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2

-SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4