GaWx

For much of the time hurricane force winds extended outward only 30 miles. Now it is up to 60 miles while TS force extend about the same as they’ve been:

From NHC 11PM advisory:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
 
...MELISSA STARTING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...
...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM 
SURGE CONTINUING IN THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

Forecasting some strengthening during next 24 hours:
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 22.9N  74.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 25.1N  73.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 29.1N  70.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 34.4N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 40.7N  58.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 46.6N  52.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/1800Z 52.0N  45.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1800Z 56.0N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/1800Z 57.0N  27.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

 From 4 hours ago, this stream from Jeff P. shows he and his friend driving around surveying the damage starting in Santa Cruz, Jamaica, where’s he’s been and which was just to the east of the worst damage, and then heading west to the worst damage with their main goal to see if they could help others:

42 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Here is that same table reformulated so that sunspot maximum years are always in year 10 of the table. This leads to row entries of different lengths. My protocol was to begin each row 9 years before the sunspot peak year and either add extra years or remove years as required. The extra years are placed in otherwise blank YR 6 and YR 7 of a 13-year collection that represents 11 years in most cases.

 

<<< COUNTS in YEARS of 11-YEAR CYCLE (N Altantic basin) >>>

Cycle starts __YR 01 _YR 02 _YR 03 _ YR 04 _YR 05 _ _YR 08 _YR 09 _YR 10 _YR 11 _YR 12 _YR 13__ Cycle ends

1851 ________ 6 3 1 __ 5 5 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 5 3 1 __ 5 4 1 __  6 4 2 __ 4 3 0 __ 6 6 0 __ 8 7 1 __7 6 1 __ 8 6 0 __ 1861

1862 ________6 3 0 _ 9 5 0 __5 3 0 __ 7 3 0 __7 6 1 __  9 7 1 ___ 4 3 0 _ 10 7 1 __ 11 10 2 _ 8 6 2 _5 4 0 __ 1871

1873 ________ 5 3 2 _ 7 4 0 __6 5 1 ___5 4 2 __8 3 1 _ 12 10 2__ 8 6 2 _ 11 9 2 __ 7 4 0 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 2 __ 1883

1884 ________ 4 4 1 _ 8 6 0 _12 10 4__19 11 2 _ 9 6 2 __ 9 6 0 __ 4 2 1 _ 10 7 1 __ 9 5 0 __12 10 5 __7 5 4 __ 1894

1895 ________ 6 2 0 _ 7 6 2 _ 6 3 0 __ 11 5 1 __10 5 2 __7 3 2 __13 6 0 __ 5 3 0 _ 10 7 1 __ 6 4 0 ___5 1 1 ___ 1905

1906 ________ 11 6 3 _ 5 0 0 _10 6 1 _ 12 6 4 _ 5 3 1 __ 6 3 0 ___ 7 4 1 __ 6 3 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 6 5 3 _ 15 10 5 __ 1916   

1917 ________ 4 2 2 __ 6 4 1 _ 5 2 1 __ 5 4 0 _ 7 5 2 __ 5 3 1 ___ 9 4 1 __ 11 5 2 __ 4 1 0 __11 8 6 __ 8 4 1 ___ 1927

1928 ________ 6 4 1 __ 5 3 1 _ 3 2 2 __13 3 1 _ 15 6 4 _20 11 6 __13 7 1 __ 8 5 3 __17 7 1 __11 4 1 __ 9 4 2 ___ 1938

1939 ________ 6 3 1 __ 9 6 0 _ 6 4 3 _ 11 4 1 _ 10 5 2 _ 14 8 3 __11 5 2 __ 7 3 0 __10 5 2 __10 6 4 __16 7 3 ___ 1949   

1950 ________16 11 6__12 8 3__11 5 2 __14 7 3_ 16 7 3 _ 13 9 4 __12 4 1 __ 8 3 2 _ 12 7 3 __14 7 2 __ 8 4 2 ___ 1960    

1961 ________ 12 8 5 _ 7 4 0 _ 10 7 3 _ 13 7 5 _ 10 4 1 _ 15 7 3 _ 15 6 1 __ 8 5 0 _ 18 12 3__14 7 2 _ 13 6 1 ___ 1971   

1972 ________ 7 3 0 __ 8 4 1 _ 11 4 2 __ 9 6 3 _ 10 6 2 __ 6 5 1 _ 12 5 2 __ 9 6 2 _ 11 9 2 __12 7 3 __ 6 2 1 ___ 1982

1983 ________ 4 3 1 _ 13 5 1 _ 11 7 3 __ 6 4 0 __ 7 3 1 __12 5 3 __11 7 2 __14 8 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 7 4 1 __ 8 4 1 ___ 1993  

1994 ________ 7 3 0 _ 19 11 5 _13 9 6 __8 3 1 __14 10 3 _12 8 5 _ 15 8 3 _ 15 9 4 _12 4 2 _ 16 7 3 _ 15 9 6 ___ 2004

2005 _______28 15 7_ 10 5 2 _15 6 2 _16 8 5 __ 9 3 2 __19 12 5 _19 7 4 _ 19 10 2_ 14 2 0 _ 8 6 2 _ 11 4 2 ___ 2015 

2016 _______ 15 7 4 _ 17 10 6 _15 8 2_ 18 6 3 _30 14 7_ 21 7 4 _14 8 2 _ 20 7 3 _ 18 11 5 _ 13 5 4_ (2026)

=================

The means are now aligned with the most recent cycle so that year 10 is always the peak solar year. No year is counted twice and where not obviously aligned it is averaged in with closest solar equivalents. Years 1 and 2 in this analysis are 2 and 3 years after solar peaks (year 11 is one year after). Years 3 to 9 are counted from before solar peaks only, any years not included are then averaged into best fits. 

means _____ 8 5 2 __ 9 5 1 __ 8 5 2 __ 9  5 2 __ 12 7 3 _ 11 6 2 __ 9 5 1 ___ 9 6 1 __ 12 6 2 _  9 5 2 _ 9 6 2

(1928-pres) 11 6 3 __13 7 2__ 11 6 3 _ 12 5 2 _ 14 7 3 _ 13 6 3 _ 12 6 2 _ 12 6 2 _ 14 7 2 _ 11 6 2 _ 13 6 2

While there are a few differences from the straight-line eleven year averages, these solar-oriented averages take on essentially the same pattern, like the solar maximum there seems to be a biennial second order frequency wave evident especially in the more active recent portion.

Overall, it could be argued that these frequency counts are within the ranges allowable by random variability, there is no huge forcing evident. 

I would invite anyone with a hypothesis to advance it, as to why Atlantic hurricane frequency appears to peak at two opposite portions of the 11-year solar cycle whether robustly forced by actual solar data, or passively forced by the mean. I am aware that at solar maximum, heat energy from the Sun is generally a bit higher (despite the cooler sunspots, the more active solar wind accounts for this), and perhaps at solar minimum there could be an argument for stability of subtropical highs which cannot hurt the count. 

One final look at the situation ... here are the more active years placed against a stylized solar cycle ... 

 

x x x x x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[][]1988-89xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x x x x

x x x x x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1936[][][]xxx[][][][]1969x1780 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x x x x x

x x x x x xxxxxxxxxxxxx1916[][]xxxxxx1893xx[][][][]1949xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x x x x x x x

x x x x x xxxxxxxxxx1846[][]xxxx2011-12xxxxxxxxxxx[][][]2004xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x x x x x x

x x x x x xxxxxxxxx[][][]xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[][][][][]2005xxxxxxxxxx x x x x x x

x x x x xxxx1954[][][][]xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[][][][][][]1887xxxxxx x x x x

x2020[][][]xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[][][[][][][]xxxxxx1933

1878[]xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[][][][][][][][]1995

 

I would contend what this shows is that high climbers are all over the mountain scattered at random. (2011-12 and 1893 are placed within the mountain profile to represent near peak but lower altitude peaks of solar activity. I added 1846 and 1780 which are recognized to be "big seasons" outside the framework of my analysis otherwise. 1900 would be about where 1878 is situated. 

 Hey Roger,

  I’ve noticed what seemed like a (slight?) partial correlation between high sunspot months (say 130+) and low ACE with possibly a couple of weeks of lag. One hypothesis is that the increased solar energy heats up the upper atmosphere more than the lower, which if true could lower instability in the tropics.

44 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

I remember last year the mid level PV was often partly to mostly uncoupled from the lower level PV, or maybe it was just much weaker than the mid level vortex. Am I remembering that right? I wonder if there are any hints of that happening again. 

 Here’s what a very knowledgeable non-met recently posted about my observation regarding the historic January in the SE US occurring despite a very strong SPV

What lucked out for us is that even with the stronger SPV last winter, it was rooted to the Hudson Bay TPV so cold air was nearby last winter most of the time, when it’s locked up and wound up on the other side is when it’s a issue,

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

The strengthening over the next 2 weeks from the current weak SPV has been shown for awhile. It’s the weakening afterward that I’ve been focusing on. Will todays run be similar? Stay tuned!

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was why I pointed out the big Pacific Jet extension a few days ago. Models typically underestimate the warmth following one of these. 

The CONUS is on track for another very warm fall. This impressive fall warmth  has been the norm over the last decade since the big shift warmer with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

Our last colder fall was back in 2014 and occurred just prior to the big temperature jump. Early signs that fall it was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East. Plus the record snowfall in South Carolina in early November. 

 

 

 Thanks, Chris.

 One thing I noticed though is that Oct of 2025 is coming in mainly NN for the E 1/4 of the US overall, which is cooler than Octobers 2015-24 except 2022 with the super strong El Niño 2015 (so not an analog) similar fwiw.

59 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Some good trends this morning... and an interesting thought. 

 

 

Improvement on the EPS from last night also. Which has been much weaker with this event compared to others. Still very much worth watching.

 

As is often the case, EPS is correcting stronger as we get closer:

10/23 EPS had weak 10/27+:

10/29 EPS shows that 10/23 EPS verified too weak 10/25-9, is less weak (to the right) 10/30-11/6 than 10/23 run, and then heads into moderate 11/9-12 (will likely later correct stronger 11/9-12+ as in toward today’s GEFS, which is below this):

10/29 GEFS is stronger than 10/29 EPS for 11/1-12 (I expect EPS to correct toward this later):

25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

With how hot it is these days, you would think natural gas would be free. Totally worthless.

1. Whereas winters on average are less cold (though with lots of variance from winter to winter), summers are hotter, which increases AC demand, which increases demand for NG to generate electricity.

2. The US exports so much more LNG these days than in the past. So, demand for NG is increased for that.

 I know many here must be exhausted, but is Melissa going to end up being the last NS of the season? Probably not. Why? I’ll look at non-El Nino seasons only:

 Since the start of the current active era, there have been 76% (16 of 21) of non-Nino seasons with at least one NS with TCG in the Nov-Dec period. The only ones without any TCG in Nov-Dec were 1995, 2000, 2010 (Thomas’ TCG was Oct 29), 2012, and 2021 (Wanda started Oct 30th).

 So, I’m giving it ~75% chance for at least one more NS in 2025.

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think the IR loop presentation now is more indicative of a truck tire (hollowed out core) than the emergence of an actual eyewall. We’ve seen this happen many times after significant land interaction and then reemergence. Hard to tell without recon or radar though.

Isidore of 2002 coming off the Yucatan came out with a hollowed out core and unexpectedly never restrengthened.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
 
...POWERFUL MELISSA MOVING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
HOURS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 77.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

 With Melissa headed to ~27.25 ACE as of 0Z this evening, it will then be only 5 lower than Erin. I see very little chance (5%) that it won’t get an additional >5 ACE the next 96 hours before extratropical transition. Thus I feel quite confident that Melissa’s ACE will exceed Erin’s 32.2.

 We’re now at 123.81 season to date with low 130s+ highly likely for the season to date through Melissa.

 NG was down 4% today on warmer two week ensemble progs vs how they looked just a few days ago, which is consistent with the warmer 11/3-11 on the Euro Weeklies the last 2 runs. Check this comparison of EPS runs:

 Look how chilly the 10/24 12Z run was (purple on left): 11-12+ HDD 11/5-7 and pointing even higher (colder due to more HDDs):

 The 10/28 0Z run (purple) instead of pointing up/colder points down/warmer with only 8-10 HDDs 11/5-7 vs the 11–12+ of the 10/24 12Z run and then with additional days (11/8-10) also being quite mild with only ~8-8.5 HDDs meaning significantly lower NG demand in week 2 (despite week 1 still looking cold) than what the EPS was showing recently:

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983245789158642173

 

 

 That’s what I was referring to earlier regarding catastrophic flash flooding coming off the mountains. Jeff P. on his live feed first alerted me to this. I greatly fear the casualties this may cause. I hope it’s not anything like Mitch, which had a death toll of 11-18K mainly due to this. 

 1. Since my last post on E US temperatures on the Euro Weeklies two days ago, they’ve warmed up significantly in just about all of the weeks. Not only is Nov 3-9 not nearly as chilly, but also Nov 10-30 has warmed from mainly NN to pretty solid AN. So, it looks like we may not get the coldest 11/27-11/9 since 2012 after all. @snowman19will be happy 

2. Despite that, the forecast for the SPV remains about as weak as it looked yesterday and with more members with a very early major SSW (~22-23%). IF that unlikely event were to occur then, that may help lead to a cold 2nd half of Dec. So, snowman may not be crazy about this 

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Has anyone heard from Josh since LF? His last tweet was about 5 hrs ago before the worst hit.

I haven’t but in the past in very strong storms, he’s gone many hours with no posts once a storm has hit. It may not be til tomorrow or later for the next post for all we know.

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
 
The eye of Melissa made landfall in western Jamaica near 17Z with
maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 kt and a central pressure
near 892 mb. Since that time, the hurricane has been weakening over
the mountains of western Jamaica with the eye disappearing and some
warming of the convective cloud tops. Based on these changes, the
initial intensity has been reduced to a highly uncertain 125 kt.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled
to investigate Melissa this evening to provide better information
on how much it has weakened. It should be noted that while
Melissa's landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded
in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to
determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic
hurricanes.
 
The initial motion is now 025/7. A turn toward the northeast with
an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, and this
should bring the center near or over southeastern Cuba late tonight
or early Wednesday. After that, an even faster motion toward the
northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday
night. After passing Bermuda, the cyclone should continue quickly
northeastward into the north Atlantic. The track guidance envelope
has shifted a little to the left (north and west) through 72 h
since the last advisory, and the new forecast track during this
time is also shifted a little to the north and west.
 
While the center of Melissa is now emerging over water, it will 
probably not re-intensify significantly before landfall in Cuba due 
to the limited amount of time before landfall and an upper-level 
wind environment that is becoming less favorable. Based on this, the
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength before
Melissa reaches Cuba.  After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter
increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause gradual
weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane
strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model
guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 18.5N  77.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 19.9N  76.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 22.2N  75.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 25.0N  73.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 28.9N  70.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 33.8N  64.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 39.0N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 48.4N  42.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z 54.8N  25.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
 
...CENTER OF MELISSA EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN
JAMAICA...
...DAMAGING WINDS. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, AND
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 77.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES

13 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Here's the thing - I've driven through Chimney Rock, which was probably the worst-hit place, just a few months ago.   Roughly half the downtown was wiped out.   But generally that's about it; and it's a quite-small downtown actually.   I have relatives that live right there in Lake Lure, and they - along with about 95% of the area - were relatively unaffected, aside from lost power, some downed trees, and some road washouts.   The vast majority of structures were generally unaffected.  You see the spectacular devastation of the areas hardest hit and assume that's the majority of places, but it's not; it's media selection bias.

Contrast with the eye wall of a hurricane - of this force - which will wipe out almost everything; leaving almost no structure at least undamaged, and completely destroying a high percentage.

Part of the reason I say that is due to the poverty of Jamaica - they just don't have the hurricane wind standards that the US does.

(Just to reiterate - not trying to understate the fact that there will be massive rain-flood damage; I'm just asserting that I think the wind damage will likely be worse, along with the storm surge flooding.)

We’ll see. There has been video of catastrophic floodwaters coming off the mountains this afternoon in many places in Jamaica including Mandeville.

 Hurricane Mitch, the 2nd deadliest Atlantic basin hurricane on record, caused 11-18K fatalities, mainly from catastrophic flooding and landslides due to epic rainfall amounts.

Jeff P. is now witnessing a flooding catastrophe in Santa Cruz in his live feed:

 Per Brad P live feed, Santa Cruz is now flooding. Also, large portions of many towns (homes and cars) are now being swept away by extreme flash flooding coming off the mountains. The way he is talking it sounds catastrophic. One town he mentioned is Mandeville.

 Per Brad P. to the SE of the center in Santa Cruz, there are funnel clouds just now appearing: