GaWx

6 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

I can see the logic of maybe a 13/14 type pattern. I just don't see KU potential in the cards for the east coast this year. If anything I can see a repeat of last year of cold but dry. 

But isn’t a KU a pretty random event that can happen in just about any winter if things happen to line up? In other words, isn’t there at least some KU potential every winter (I realize the probabilities vary each winter) because it’s random?

12Z summary of main ops

-Icon H 250 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22-3
-GFS another relatively weak run with a TS over Bermuda but takes 10 days (9/27)!
-CMC H 150 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22
-Euro H 200 miles E/SE of Bermuda 9/22
-JMA out to only 72 as a TD recurving
-UKMET: TS ~150 miles E of Bermuda 9/22:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 20.0N 50.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2025 24 20.0N 50.9W 1009 35
0000UTC 19.09.2025 36 20.8N 53.2W 1009 31
1200UTC 19.09.2025 48 21.3N 55.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 20.09.2025 60 22.4N 58.1W 1011 30
1200UTC 20.09.2025 72 23.6N 59.5W 1011 27
0000UTC 21.09.2025 84 25.1N 61.1W 1011 29
1200UTC 21.09.2025 96 26.9N 61.2W 1011 33
0000UTC 22.09.2025 108 29.3N 62.0W 1008 43
1200UTC 22.09.2025 120 31.2N 62.2W 1007 47
0000UTC 23.09.2025 132 33.5N 61.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 23.09.2025 144 36.5N 58.5W 1003 42
0000UTC 24.09.2025 156 39.5N 52.7W 994 43
1200UTC 24.09.2025 168 42.3N 44.3W 982 52

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I bet Bastardi will have a thing or two to say about this upgrade lol.

Followup:

 JB was surprisingly quiet. All he said was this: “Now, the red-hatched area has been designated Tropical Depression 7, posing a threat to Bermuda but not the U.S.”

 But then he immediately mentioned a possible unexpected “side-show Bob” to form off the SE US.

3 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

I love the “battle-zone” that so many forecasters love to put much of the SE US in every winter lol.

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Thanks. Indeed, the chances of exceeding 100 total continue to decline.
 
For reference, the 1991-2020 average from now to the end is 51:

-22 rest of Sept

-22 during Oct

-6 during Nov

-1 during Dec

So, to reach 100, 2025 would need to be ~10 above the 1991-2020 avg, a tall but not near impossible order. But it being a weak La Nina and recent seasons being pretty heavily backloaded help those chances to an extent. What Gabrielle does or doesn’t do will be a pretty significant part of the mix.

 I bet Bastardi will have a thing or two to say about this upgrade lol.

 Check this out folks: 0Z GFS is much weaker with strongest at 1005 mb/barely a TS followed by it weakening and then dissipating over open water of the SW Atlantic into nothing! The prior 13 runs all had hurricanes, usually MH! What the?

—————

0Z UKMET: passes just E of Bermuda (similar to 0Z Euro):

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N  43.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922025

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 17.09.2025    0  14.4N  43.9W     1010            28
    1200UTC 17.09.2025   12  16.9N  45.4W     1009            33
    0000UTC 18.09.2025   24  19.5N  48.0W     1009            41
    1200UTC 18.09.2025   36  20.7N  50.6W     1008            37
    0000UTC 19.09.2025   48  21.3N  53.3W     1008            31
    1200UTC 19.09.2025   60  21.7N  55.6W     1009            27
    0000UTC 20.09.2025   72  22.0N  57.6W     1010            26
    1200UTC 20.09.2025   84  23.3N  59.0W     1010            30
    0000UTC 21.09.2025   96  24.8N  60.2W     1010            29
    1200UTC 21.09.2025  108  26.2N  60.8W     1010            32
    0000UTC 22.09.2025  120  27.5N  61.9W     1009            37
    1200UTC 22.09.2025  132  29.2N  63.5W     1010            37
    0000UTC 23.09.2025  144  31.1N  63.5W     1010            34
    1200UTC 23.09.2025  156  33.1N  62.8W     1010            33
    0000UTC 24.09.2025  168  34.0N  59.7W     1009            30

AAM says solid La Niña like for next month:

@snowman19

5 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It hit tropical status at the last second at impact. 

There's no indication it’s tropical. But it’s a hybrid of sorts though hybrid doesn’t necessarily mean subtropical, which is a type of hybrid, either. Most pro mets I’ve seen are saying not ST. I had been wondering if it could be ST.

What the?

@donsutherland1@snowman19@bluewave

8 PM TWO:

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It seems that 2013-14 is a popular analog on social media right now. That the North Pacific SSTs are not similar to those of 2013-14 doesn't phase those speculating. Right now, if the anomalies stay as is, one would be dealing with a weaker Aleutian Low, which teleconnects to milder conditions in the East. Should dual areas of excessive warmth persist, there could be some variability, but again not the kind of consistent cold seen during winter 2013-14. We'll see how things evolve in coming months. 

Here’s another one, Don:

Mysterious ‘warm blob’ re-emerges in Pacific Ocean, long-term impacts expected

by: Mike Masco

Posted: Sep 15, 2025 

 According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the North Pacific sea surface temperature hit 20°C (68°F) in August, which would put it as the highest on record. For perspective, the first time it reached 19°C was 11 years ago, with records dating back to 1854.

 This event marks the fourth-largest marine heat wave since 1982, spanning a vast region from north of Hawaii to the coasts of California and Alaska.

From a meteorological view, this setup can be significant.

The warm anomaly tends to build high-pressure ridges over the Pacific Northwest, which pushes the jet stream eastward, often unleashing colder Arctic air into the eastern U.S..

This developing pattern closely mirrors what happened in the summer, fall and winter of 2013–2014, which featured:

• A neutral-to-weak La Niña ENSO pattern
• Below-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic
• Massive cold outbreaks and snowfall across the Northeast

That year, New York City recorded 57 inches of snow, Philadelphia saw 63 inches, and the following year, Boston shattered records with 110 inches.

Is history repeating itself?

The current oceanic and atmospheric setup strongly resembles the winter of 2013–2014, raising the possibility of another brutal season for the East Coast — especially with hurricane activity already trending below normal, just like it did back then.
 

https://wgntv.com/news/mysterious-warm-blob-re-emerges-in-pacific-ocean-long-term-impacts-expected/

Regarding this nor’easter, here’s chaser Josh-iCyclone’s take:
 

For the E MDR lemon from the 2PM TWO:

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the west coast of Africa is 
producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some 
slow development of this system is possible towards the latter 
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from 
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

More 12Z runs:

 The models have switched in some cases. The GFS/CMC moved W to just SE of Bermuda whereas the Euro moved E to well E of Bermuda.

Icon: still well to the SW of others with it much weaker SSW of Bermuda then recurving NW

JMA: TS at Bermuda at 192

53 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Just a question.

 

You seem to quote the UK model quite often. Is it that good of a tropical model? 

Great Q, big ten fan!

1. The UK has been found to be a top tier model when looking at average errors over the longterm.

2. I like to post all of the majors, good model or not. But I like to post the UK also for some other reasons like:

-it’s the only one I can find with definitive textual output that’s easy to post without taking up image space and it allows one to post the entire run for a TC on just one page

-so, it’s also good for documentation purposes for when one wants to look back at it for a particular TC or a TC that never formed like the recent Invest 91L

-this complete run’s textual output comes out earlier than all but the Icon of the majors

-The UKMET is often overlooked. You see lots of Icon, GFS, and Euro posts, but hardly any UK despite it overall being a good model. So, I happily fill in that gap.

 12Z UKMET: center passes just SE of Bermuda
 

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 19.4N  49.2W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 18.09.2025   36  19.4N  49.2W     1008            42
    1200UTC 18.09.2025   48  20.2N  51.3W     1007            37
    0000UTC 19.09.2025   60  21.1N  53.9W     1007            33
    1200UTC 19.09.2025   72  21.6N  56.5W     1008            28
    0000UTC 20.09.2025   84  22.8N  58.1W     1008            31
    1200UTC 20.09.2025   96  24.1N  59.6W     1009            30
    0000UTC 21.09.2025  108  25.8N  59.8W     1008            37
    1200UTC 21.09.2025  120  27.3N  61.2W     1005            46
    0000UTC 22.09.2025  132  28.8N  62.3W     1003            44
    1200UTC 22.09.2025  144  30.3N  63.0W     1001            44
    0000UTC 23.09.2025  156  31.7N  63.0W     1000            49
    1200UTC 23.09.2025  168  32.5N  61.5W      998            43

 Good discussions all!

 Unlike like the last couple of runs, the 12Z UKMET has no followup TC to 92L.

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe in the era of climate change we need to redefine the AMO.  The cycle is past due to switch and maybe there are other things that should define it besides SST? Especially with climate change, it's likely those waters will always be that warm (unless the ice at the poles melts even more quickly and that should cool down the SST.)

 

Maybe we need a RAMO (relative AMO) in addition to classic AMO sort of like we now have RONI in addition to the classic ONI.

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Jennettes pier is gusting to 65, sustained at 42!!! (MPH)

Do you think that this possibly could have properly been classified as a subtropical storm? Is this mainly a baroclinic low but with some tropical characteristics?

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing 
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow 
development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter 
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from 
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s still clearly baroclinic—attached to a frontal boundary. You can see it clearly in the visible satellite.

Same impacts as a TS, but just not tropical.

 

But what do you think about the possibility that this also has some tropical characteristics making it subtropical?

24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

People get mad when the NWS names slop for “inflating the numbers.” Now it’s the opposite? Tough job

True.
In this case though, keep in mind that this wasn’t even given a 10% chance in any TWO to become just a subtropical depression. The TWOs cover both tropical and subtropical depression+ development potential.

Keep in mind that this wasn’t even given a 10% chance in any TWO to become just a subtropical depression. The TWOs cover both tropical and subtropical depression+ development potential.

1 hour ago, Cat Lady said:

It seems odd to not name it, especially given its proximity to land.  This meets the Tropical designation criteria right?

 I’m not sure as it’s somewhat subjective. I’m thinking more about subtropical than tropical. But the NHC never even had it at a 10% chance to transition to subtropical or tropical in any TWO, which is what really made JB mad initially.