GaWx

21 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

All things considered, the C3S isn’t terrible. It also tends to be one of the more correct seasonal blends that doesn’t overestimate the cold too much. 

 

 

This is still another model looking great leading up to a potential Fab Feb. It’s ashamed we can’t see Feb on this run.

On 8/9/2026 at 8:03 AM, GaWx said:

 Follow-up: Today’s SOI is -10, which makes the current streak at an amazing 91 days, 2nd only to 1998’s 100 days for longest on record back to 1991. I’m predicting that tomorrow’s will be a +SOI, which would mean the streak ends at 91 days.

As expected, today is a +SOI (+2), thus ending the -SOI streak at 91 days. Thus, the 100 day streak of 1998 is safe.

40 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

And just like that GFS goes poof for everything. As Green Day once said, wake me up when El nino ends.

12Z UKMET still has a low end TS:

12Z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.2N 36.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 48 10.2N 36.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 60 10.9N 38.4W 1009 28
1200UTC 13.08.2026 72 11.0N 41.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 14.08.2026 84 11.5N 44.1W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 96 12.8N 46.9W 1009 33
0000UTC 15.08.2026 108 14.4N 50.2W 1010 36
1200UTC 15.08.2026 120 15.8N 54.2W 1011 39
0000UTC 16.08.2026 132 17.6N 57.5W 1009 41
1200UTC 16.08.2026 144 18.9N 60.8W 1008 41
0000UTC 17.08.2026 156 20.0N 63.8W 1008 33
1200UTC 17.08.2026 168 21.4N 66.5W 1008 35

6 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Does the cold model forecast for this winter jive in any way with Super El Niño? Are there reasons to believe this winter season goes against the grain and produces widespread cold and snow?

If so, Feb would seem to be the best opportunity per models and analogs with a mild Dec and in between Jan.

 Mainly for entertainment: The image below is the TT 2m mean of the last 12 CFSv2 ops for Feb ‘27. It is extremely cold from the C Plains to the SE US with anomalies of -8 to -11 F even vs 1984-2009 climo, which is a bit colder than 1991-2020!
 

 It’s just about as cold there as the frigid Febs of 1978, 1958, and 1905 and is a bit colder than Febs of 2015, 2010, 1968, 1963, 1947, and 1902. So, it is the coldest Feb there since 1978. It isn’t quite as cold as the record coldest, 1895:

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The westerly QBO and the descending solar are two red flags for that kind of an outcome in the seasonal mean, neither of which were present in 2009....not to mention nearly 20 years of CC.

1982-3 and 2015-6 are two super strong ones with both a +QBO and descending solar fwiw.

1957-8 was a super strong with a +QBO and was barely after peak.

 Yesterday’s NOAA weekly release for relative 3.4 came in at +1.8, which is the warmest early August on record back to 1982:
 

29JUL2026         3.2        2.1        1.5        0.2

05AUG2026        3.3        2.4        1.8        0.3

 ————————

How does this compare to 1997?

06AUG1997         3.9        2.3        1.6        0.3

——————

How does this +1.8 for 3.4 compare to others for weeks centered near August 5th?

2026 +1.8

2023 +0.4

2015 +1.1

2012 +0.7

2009 +0.4

2006 +0.2

2004 +0.7

2002 +0.7

1997 +1.6

1994 +0.8

1993 +0.4

1991  +0.7

1990 +0.4

1987 +1.2

1986 +0.3

1982 +1.0

 The earliest any of these reached +1.8 is August 20, 1997.

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.6N 37.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 72 10.1N 38.8W 1011 25
1200UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.6N 41.9W 1011 27
0000UTC 14.08.2026 96 11.4N 44.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 14.08.2026 108 12.5N 48.2W 1011 29
0000UTC 15.08.2026 120 13.8N 51.7W 1012 32
1200UTC 15.08.2026 132 15.9N 56.4W 1011 38
0000UTC 16.08.2026 144 16.8N 60.2W 1011 40
1200UTC 16.08.2026 156 18.9N 63.7W 1009 51
0000UTC 17.08.2026 168 20.5N 65.9W 1008 35

 The image below is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

———————

 Looking at Feb, alone, the progged coldest month:

 Mainly for entertainment: The image below is the TT 2m mean of the last 12 CFSv2 for Feb ‘27. It is extremely cold from the C Plains to the SE US with anomalies of -8 to -11 F even vs 1984-2009 climo, which is a bit colder than 1991-2020!
 

 It’s just about as cold there as the frigid Febs of 1978, 1958, and 1905 and is a bit colder than Febs of 2015, 2010, 1968, 1963, 1947, and 1902. So, it’s the coldest Feb there since 1978. It isn’t quite as cold as the record coldest, 1895:

 This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

12Z UKMET: notably further WSW than prior run as it ends as a TS at ~140 miles E of N Leewards moving WNW

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.9N 34.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 72 10.8N 36.0W 1010 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.3N 38.3W 1010 26
1200UTC 13.08.2026 96 10.7N 40.9W 1010 28
0000UTC 14.08.2026 108 11.1N 43.9W 1010 29
1200UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.8N 47.0W 1010 29
0000UTC 15.08.2026 132 12.9N 50.1W 1010 29
1200UTC 15.08.2026 144 14.5N 53.5W 1011 32
0000UTC 16.08.2026 156 16.0N 56.7W 1011 37
1200UTC 16.08.2026 168 17.4N 59.9W 1010 39

On 8/7/2026 at 8:27 AM, GaWx said:

 Although the -SOI streak is up to a whopping 89 days and it will reach the low 90s (2nd longest on record back to 1991 by a large margin to early 1998’s 100 days), there’s a good chance it will finally end early next week short of the 100 day record with at least one smallish +SOI as it now appears. Let’s see what actually happens.

 Follow-up: Today’s SOI is -10, which makes the current streak at an amazing 91 days, 2nd only to 1998’s 100 days for longest on record back to 1991. I’m predicting that tomorrow’s will be a +SOI, which would mean the streak ends at 91 days.

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

2 lemons 

 Now the further E one is orange (40% within 7 days). The 0Z UKMET is back to developing this (12Z TC was from the further W TW):

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.3N 35.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 96 9.1N 36.4W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2026 108 9.8N 38.0W 1010 28
0000UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.1N 40.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 14.08.2026 132 12.6N 42.5W 1010 32
0000UTC 15.08.2026 144 15.0N 45.6W 1011 33
1200UTC 15.08.2026 156 17.0N 49.5W 1011 37
0000UTC 16.08.2026 168 18.3N 53.4W 1012 41

8/8 12Z CFS: not as strong with none 4+ til Sept 4th:

12Z UK
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.0N 53.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 96 12.0N 53.2W 1012 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 108 12.5N 56.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 13.08.2026 120 12.7N 60.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 14.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during
the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

0Z UKMET 
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.6N 33.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2026 132 12.6N 33.9W 1011 34
0000UTC 14.08.2026 144 13.0N 38.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 14.08.2026 156 14.1N 42.3W 1011 32
0000UTC 15.08.2026 168 15.4N 47.2W 1012 36

Due to an inverted trough, heavy showers are occurring in the area moving from off the ocean including here. Rain started just after 8AM.

Edit on 8/9: I ended up with ~1” on 8/8, almost all falling between 8AM and 10AM.

July OHC of +2.96 set a new record high back to 1979 breaking old record of +2.56 (Oct 1997)!

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well vs the 2013-24 average!

 This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well!

 This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

 Although the -SOI streak is up to a whopping 89 days and it will reach the low 90s (2nd longest on record back to 1991 by a large margin to early 1998’s 100 days), there’s a good chance it will finally end early next week short of the 100 day record with at least one smallish +SOI as it now appears. Let’s see what actually happens.

7 hours ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Well...

 Folks believe Maue’s purposefully trying to sound overly dramatic to make fun of the doomsayers on social media. 

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:

Need I say more? 12Z 8/5/26 CFSv2 AAM:  all 4 members get to 4+ for one day on day 14 (8/18/26):

9 minutes ago, annunciated said:

We need a little more luck down here in GA, but otherwise I do agree! We have to just wait and see.

A 3rd year in a row of measurable snow down here on/near the coast of GA would be amazing since it would be unprecedented in the modern day record book (back to 1870s).