GaWx

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Still rising slowly.

Thanks, Mitch. It has risen >1 in just 14 days!

 CFSv2 10 day run mean is still not backing off of a cold Feb in a large portion of the US, especially corridor from SE US to C Plains where most areas are a whopping 5-7.5F BN though I’d prefer Alaska and NW Canada be AN:

  Compare this to the same for Feb of 2024 from about the same 10 day mean in Aug of 2023:

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Blog on wildfire smoke in the US. There's been an increase in smoky years since the late 2010s. 

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/smoke-gets-in-your-eyes

 Per the following reliable and objective source, year 2026 as of week 32 has had the lowest area burnt in North America since 2012 by a good margin vs other years as of the same week (by a third). Also, globally it has been by a large margin the lowest for this point in the year since 2012 as I’ve been posting despite being near the warmest globally along with 2025 being 2nd lowest. My point in posting about 2026 for N.A. and 2026/5 globally is not to say CC is causing a decrease in wildfire activity because I’m not saying that. Instead, my point in posting this is to show that that there isn’t a proven simple relationship between CC and wildfire related activity and that different kinds of wildfire related data from various sources from various periods can be presented in various ways:
 

53 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

No doubt its going to be warmer than normal but those temperature departures are ridiculous. Just remember the warmest winter we had was 01-02 and that was neutral enso..Who really knows?

Our warmest since 1980:

16-7 (Niña)

22-3 (Nina)

19-20 (WN)

18-19 (Nino)

15-16 (Nino)

21-2 (Nina)

12-13 (CN)

11-12 (Nina)

On 8/11/2026 at 7:33 AM, GaWx said:

Week 31 of worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26:


 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?time=1..52&tab=line

Week 32 worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26:

Naming a TC after a teletubby? 

4 hours ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

That’s where the great and long SOI monthly records can be useful. There’s a good -correlation between SOI and 3.4 SSTa. SOI goes way back to 1876.

For the first run in many days, the UKMET (12Z) has no Atlantic basin TC.

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s also a challenge when you aren’t speaking with someone in person. Many not written cues can get lost on these forums. I am sure if we all met in person things would be different.

Also goes to how many interactions these days occur online vs in person prior to social media and the internet. So we don’t have the benefit of nonverbal cues which are common in actual life. 

Even with all of issues that pop up from time to on these forums, the benefits outweigh any negatives. Weather models and statistics used to be very limited before the age of the internet.

I can remember the old Alden Difax machines that was the only way to get weather models. Plus there were no freely available databases containing past reanalysis products with 500 mb patterns  and temperatures for any given month or period. 

 

 In the 1980s soon after obtaining my first job in my field of study, my first big purchase was for a washer/dryer. I was so excited.

 But I was even more excited with my 2nd buy, an even bigger one: what my friends called a “weather machine”. This “machine” was a combo of the following: a pretty high end short wave radio to get radio facsimile sounds, an Epson dot matrix B/W printer, and a radio facsimile decoder that was sent to me from England. This was a dream come true.

 The output wasn’t that good as weak or interfered signals were common, but this was the only way I could get my own feed of wx data!

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I come from the MA forum where these kinds of posts are routine and keep things entertaining. Much like the NE forum as a matter of fact. None of it is meant as a personal attack. But vigorous discussion and disagreement is also routine in both forums. I don't believe I've crossed the line. We obviously have different personalities/viewpoints, but that's what you get in a public forum. It's unavoidable, hence the "ignore" feature is available. I think that's the only option available to either of us.

 Vigorous but respectful discussion/debate about the relevant subject makes for the best threads. Echo chambers are boring. It’s beneficial to respectfully debate alternative viewpoints.

 Intense debates relying on factual evidence, critical thinking, and sound reasoning instead of emotional appeals or personal attacks are the most desirable.

 Also, being open-minded to change one’s views is beneficial to these threads. Posters displaying intellectual humility, reading others’ posts thoroughly, and being willing to update their views when presented with better evidence is desirable for quality threads.

@bluewave

 Edit: Many of the worst threads at this BB were in the Politics forum because little of the above was the case in most threads. Hardly anyone was open minded about anything and personal attacks were common. Trolling was common. It was absolutely awful due to hardly any intelligent debate. Fortunately, this thread is far better!

 The relatively good news continues as regards the Arctic sea ice area:

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hmm…down to 60% odds 

Down to 20% now:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands 
is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing 
upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development 
continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty 
winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the 
Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

0Z UKMET: ends up N of PR as a TD moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.1N 56.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2026 108 17.1N 56.8W 1013 24
0000UTC 19.08.2026 120 18.4N 58.3W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2026 132 19.2N 60.4W 1014 26
0000UTC 20.08.2026 144 20.0N 62.1W 1015 27
1200UTC 20.08.2026 156 20.6N 64.3W 1015 28
0000UTC 21.08.2026 168 21.4N 67.0W 1014 28

 After an official airport high of an awful 97, I was on the road in the middle of a full-fledged severe thunderstorm in the SW SAV metro area along and near US-17 and GA 204 ~6-6:15PM. It was about the most ferocious storm I’ve experienced so far this summer with high winds, some of the worst CTG lightning I’ve seen this summer, and blinding torrential rain. It was a doozy with Ma Nature showing off her wild side. There were some fallen trees nearby per reports.

 When I got home it was raining heavily though nothing like what I saw earlier. My home also had a popup earlier. Total rainfall today was >1”, which was very nice to see!

Edit: I ended up with ~1.05” on 8/13. This brings my MTD to an AN 4.55” through 8/15.

15 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

At least by this point, the cold signal was gone. (This was the case in 2015-16.) By the time you went into the fall runs, those regions were showing above average temperatures for DJF on almost all models. By the time you got to October and November in 2015 and 2023, it should have been apparent that December was going to torch.

The cold signal still being there has to bring hope to those want cold and snow. I always keep coming back to the point that the last strong el nino that showed a cold signal this deep into the season produced the coldest CONUS winter in the 21st century.

The Aug ‘23 Jamstec was actually slightly colder than the prior two months. But to be fair, Sep and moreso Oct were colder than the Aug run before Nov warmed back up to no BN. However, even the Oct 23 run, which a number of us including me were understandably salivating over, wasn’t nearly as cold as the current run (also note how much colder is the Arctic vs 23-4):

Current run (Aug):

 Not only have the last 5 Jamstec runs had cold and the coldest on the globe on land in the E US for winter, the 2023-4 winter forecast made in August was much warmer with it NN (see below). Also, this NN DJF forecast made in August of 2023 had been the coldest DJF made by Jamstec in August back to when the current records go back to, which is August of 2017! So, the following for 23-24 and today’s for 26-7 are the two coldest August runs for DJF:

@bluewave

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wayyy too much optimism in this thread. We could use a Bluewave tutorial on how CC has engineered the failure of past auspicious seasonal runs by way of gargantuan ridges eating away the troughs like Pacman.

The cold dominating a large portion of the E US and it being the coldest land area on the entire globe goes all the way back to the first Jamstec run with DJF, April!

April:

May:

June:

July:

Aug:

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Jamstec updated for August. 

I wonder how cold Feb, alone, is in the E US. Also, I wonder if any individual winter months are colder than the prior run. I bet this DJF avg is incorporating a relatively mild Dec compared to Jan and especially Feb, which would mean quite a cold Feb.

 Note that the E US is the coldest land area throughout the world, which is also the case on other models. In addition, Alaska and W Canada are quite warm, which typically teleconnect with a cold E US.

The E MDR AOI is now Invest 94L.

C

27 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

I call them emotional support named storms.

Joe Bastardi calls them “ham sandwiches” . Well, Cristobal is the latest ham sandwich.

 There’s a decent chance for a record breaking long phase 6 this month. It started in phase 6 on Aug. 3rd:

 The latest GEFS, one of the more reliable for the MJO in the WPAC, has phase 6 through the entire run, Aug 26th, except it has it on the border of phase 5 Aug 18-20th:

 The EPS has it in phase 6 through 8/23:

  These are the longest phase 6 periods on record (back to late 1974):

6/13-30/1984 18 days

7/28-8/18/1984 22

10/6-20/1988 15

7/15-8/4/1996 21

2/25-3/10/1997 14

11/16-12/1/1998 16

7/19-8/1/2018 14

10/13-31/2022 19

1/5-21/2026 17

 So, the longest phase 6 is currently the 22 days of late July-Aug of 1984 with the 2nd longest of 21 days mid July-early Aug 1996 (both near same time of year). The GEFS is suggesting the current one could reach 24+ days while the EPS has it ending up at 21 days.

Initial WxBell Nov ‘26- Mar ‘27 forecast looks very reasonable although I’d like to see the month to month so as to see the expected large variability from early to late as I’ve just been posting about although they did say this:

The bottom line is the colder part of the winter is expected to be later, rather than in December.

Temps:

Snowfall:

 The TW following 92L is also making some noise on the models and is now a lemon although the 0Z UKMET has it just as a TW moving similarly to 92L into the E Caribbean:

8AM TWO:

Now up to 20/30:

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some 
development of this system during the next several days while it 
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Some years are missing, like 1995 and 2007. December 1994 and 2006 were very warm (actually the November-January period was near record warm), while February 1995 and 2007 were the outlier cold months.

Thank you for adding Feb of 1995 and especially 2007 to the list. Indeed, two more cold Febs and they both had warm Decs! So, the idea continues to be that a warm Dec, which is expected especially up north and especially what @snowman19has emphasized and which El Niño climo favors, has little to no bearing on how cold Feb could be. That imho tells me the best way to look toward this winter, looking at its prospects month to month. Models and analogs are emphasizing the prospect for a big range from warm start to cold end.

Invest 92L:
0Z UKMET: only makes it to TD status for the first time in many runs:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 40.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 24 10.6N 40.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 13.08.2026 36 11.4N 42.5W 1012 27
0000UTC 14.08.2026 48 11.5N 46.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 60 12.5N 49.9W 1013 28
0000UTC 15.08.2026 72 13.6N 54.3W 1012 30
1200UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.2N 58.8W 1012 29
0000UTC 16.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING