GaWx

9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today. 

 The UKMET (0Z), after having dropped this from TCG, brought back TCG. Also, unlike the 2 Wednesday runs that had it form on Sun in NE Gulf followed by a NE move across FL, this run delays development til Tue and then moves it slowly WSW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32
1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33
0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39
1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48

CFSv2 latest 10 day mean of JFM 2m anomalies is beautiful fwiw:

Same for precip:

 Whereas this looks great and I’d love for it to verify closely, it’s important to keep in mind the following for the NE US regarding 15 years of mid-July CFSv2 JFM prog verifications (2012-26):

-Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12

-Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13

 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) were too cold…so not a strong cold bias and thus there’s still a reasonable level of hope that it could verify well.

——————————
 The cold bias in the SE is even stronger:

-Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12

-Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13

—————————

 Interestingly, this cold JFM 2027 CFSv2 forecast isn’t a whole lot colder than the following one also made in mid-July for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):

 This is what verified: so, CFSv2 was close in NE but too cold in the S 1/2 of US:

11 minutes ago, roardog said:

How is it looking? You’re pretty good at guessing what the SOI will be in the coming days. Will we break the record?

 We’ll likely exceed 1997’s 72 days, which would put it as 2nd longest on record (back to 1991). But #1 (from 1998) is way up at 100 days. I have no idea if it will get that high. With that still being 33 days away, it would be quite awhile before I could even try to forecast whether or not it will be reached. Since that would be quite the accomplishment, I feel chances are well under 50% as of now. Let’s see how things go.

 At just before 8PM, I started getting mainly light to occasionally moderate rain. The relevant convection had developed nearby as a result of an E moving outflow boundary colliding with the seabreeze front. But what had been a heavy thunderstorm weakened by the time it started here. So, whereas this is measurable, it still isn’t much.

Edit: I got only ~0.04”.

On 7/10/2026 at 11:18 AM, GaWx said:

 
Thanks, Adam. So, Long Paddock after ~a week finally came back to updating its daily SOIs. This is what I earlier posted about this:

 In doing so, it also retroactively changed some dailies prior to July 3rd. What’s most interesting is that those changes changed what had been 2 small positives to negatives: June 18th/19th changed from +4/+1 to -4/-4. Based on the original June 18th release of +4, a 37 day -SOI streak had apparently ended June 18th. However, with these changes, it didn’t and thus we’re in a very long -SOI streak that’s now at a whopping 62 days and is still going strong!

 How does this compare to the longest back to 1991?

-100 days in 1998

-72 days in 1997

-66 days in 2015

-65 days in 2023

-62 days and counting 2026

 Today, we made it to 67 straight -SOI days, which puts the current streak in 3rd place back to 1991! So, this one is behind only two from the 1997-8 Nino. Reaching and possibly exceeding 2nd place ‘97’s 72 days is likely as of now. How long will it go?

17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Yeah not sure there’s going to be enough time for TC genesis, but nothing set in stone yet. 

After 2 runs forming a TS from this, the last 2 runs dropped that and instead both develop something well out in the Atlantic subtropics:

0Z 7/16/26 UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 27.9N 63.9W 1014 29
0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 30.6N 66.2W 1013 31
——————————

12Z 7/16/26 UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 29.1N 63.9W 1014 30
1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 32.3N 65.2W 1014 31

My area has had some thunderstorms pop-up with light rain starting ~2PM. This may not amount to too much.

The latest daily OISST anomaly update for 3.4 had a warming of a whopping 0.13C, which is the largest rise since June 4th. This is the kind of move that will probably be needed from time to time to get August averaged out up to the mid +2s:

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east

 Believable but will it actually happen? Nobody knows. Largest month to month warming on record is 0.85 (Jan ‘56). The largest warming on record in Aug is 0.61 (1988). Actually, the largest on record of any month July-Oct is only that 0.61.
 Here are the largest on record:

0.85 Jan 1956

0.84 June 1968

0.78 Mar 1951

0.73 Feb 1976

0.71 May 2026

0.68 Nov 2009

0.68 Mar 2000

0.66 May 1967

0.61 Aug 1988

0.61 Jan 1975

0.60 Oct 1991

0.60 Jan 1953

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt

@Typhoon Tip

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just looking at that stuff... 

According to CPC most recent power point,

yet the present NINO 3.4. regional anomalies ( found here:   https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 ) are already floating around +2.00 C.   So, either their CFSv2 product is less accurate as a predictive use ( by over a whole deg C ), or... Climate Reanalyzer's data is suss. 

I don't really care to get into that ..per se, I'm really just more interested in general with the comparison between monitoring vs modeling: where are we?

That CFS graph is referring to relative 3.4 anomalies, which are currently in the +1.3 to +1.5 region rather than ~+2.0. Actually, the official relative 3.4 for last week was only +1.3:

08JUL2026         2.6        1.7        1.3        0.5

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 The CFS latest 10 day mean prog has a whopping +2.3 for relative 3.4 in August! August will be a really big test to see if the progged record breaking Nino is still on track as that would require a near 1C rise from July! Going back to the start of records in 1950, there has never been a 1C+ rise within just one month. I‘m talking about any month in any ENSO. Will it actually warm that much in August??

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Parts of the East had their lowest snowfall of the 1800s that winter.

The big story during the 1877-1878 super El Niño was the warmth in the Upper Midwest.

It’s an example how  really strong El Niños can sometimes have their warmest departures in February. 

While we don’t have the 1841-1870 climate normals for MSP, I used the earliest available 30 year period.

The departures for them that winter would have been like if December 2015 had run through February 2016 in the Northeast with no pattern reversal.

MSP 1877-1878 

DEC….+14.5

JAN…..+9.8

FEB……+15.8

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	19.3	12.0	15.7	15.6
Max	33.8 1877	25.9 1880	31.9 1877
1872-1873	6.0	5.4	12.8	8.1
1873-1874	17.6	12.2	12.6	14.1
1874-1875	17.2	-3.4	-2.6	3.7
1875-1876	24.7	15.7	15.9	18.8
1876-1877	8.3	8.6	31.9	16.3
1877-1878	33.8	21.8	31.5	29.0
1878-1879	19.1	16.1	12.7	16.0
1879-1880	11.5	25.9	19.6	19.0
1880-1881	13.2	7.9	17.1	12.7
1881-1882	29.0	19.0	30.4	26.1
1882-1883	15.0	0.8	12.1	9.3
1883-1884	19.7	8.8	12.9	13.8
1884-1885	14.8	4.4	11.3	10.2
1885-1886	21.0	3.7	14.9	13.2
1886-1887	7.3	0.7	9.4	5.8
1887-1888	17.4	-0.4	13.1	10.0
1888-1889	25.2	20.7	10.6	18.8
1889-1890	28.8	10.6	19.2	19.5
1890-1891	24.4	21.6	11.8	19.3
1891-1892	30.1	13.5	22.9	22.2
1892-1893	16.8	7.3	12.0	12.0
1893-1894	14.0	12.3	15.7	14.0
1894-1895	28.1	7.0	12.0	15.7
1895-1896	22.5	16.8	22.3	20.5
1896-1897	24.4	10.6	20.0	18.3
1897-1898	15.3	23.0	20.6	19.6
1898-1899	14.1	13.7	7.8	11.9
1899-1900	21.4	21.3	8.6	17.1
1900-1901	21.0	15.2	12.3	16.2
1901-1902	15.9	18.7	18.2	17.6

 

 

 

Unlike the very mild Feb 1878 in the upper Midwest, the E US’ warmest month of that winter was the fairly typical El Niño warmest Dec. In contrast, Feb was only modestly AN in a good portion of the NE to NN in the SE. Jan was NN to BN. Jan-Feb combined in much of the E US wasn’t mild at all and instead was largely NN (no more than slightly AN in the NE and even BN in good part of SE).

17 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Here's the continental composite using the 1861-1900 average to detrend. Note that a simple detrend, while helpful, still assumes that SST changes since then will scale linearly in terms of forcing (almost certainly not going to be the case). Nevertheless, the overall pattern makes it clear that the continent will mostly suffer from high frequency intrusion of downslope events, enhanced by anomalous moisture transport and a surplus moist static energy.

This map agrees with many of the official SE station temps being NN (and even BN in FL as Jacksonville and other official temps confirm). It also shows that the torch was centered in the Midwest and Plains with no torch near the E coast (ex: NYC was ~+1.3F, not a torch). Much of NE coast was only 1-2 F AN per the city by city official temps.

More on the not mild 1877-8 in much of the E US:

NYC using 1869-1900 for normals

Dec 37.4 (+3.2) AN

Jan 29.9 (-0.4) NN

Feb 32.3 (+1.2) NN

So, DJF +1.3 NN with only Dec warmer than normal and even it wasn’t a torch

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

@csnavywx

57 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Leaning towards it getting even stronger than the 1877-78 event, much less the 97/98 one, but that depends on whether or not we get any sort of pause in the WWB train/standing wave. That event was exotically warm across most of North America through the vast majority of the winter. In fact, farmers were planting their crops in Minnesota in February (yes, really).

Article covering that from Mark Seeley out of the University of Minnesota: 1878 El Niño saw crops planted in February

Texas itself was mild (relative to normal at the time) and very wet into the fall and especially winter. The current event you're suffering through is a side effect of a persistent rossby wave train that has set up in (at least in part) due to the response to the forcing induced by the developing Nino, but ENSO relationships in the summer are weaker and it's also partly just bad luck.

 

 

 However in the SE US, as has often been the case with super El Niño winters, 1877-8, was actually near normal (mild Dec, cold Jan, and NN Feb). For example, Asheville was mild in Dec but then had a cold and snowy Jan (8.5” from 2 storms) followed by a NN Feb. DJF averaged NN.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp

Also, Augusta and Savannah averaged NN.

56 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Do you have the September or October 2015 prediction for JFM 2016?

That JFM 2014 prediction was spot on, lol.

 CFS Oct 1-10 mean prog for JFM ‘16:

Actual: fairly close N tier but too cold S 1/2:

A shower with moderate to heavy rain just popped right over my area at 3PM.

Edit: My total was only ~0.1”, which gets me to ~4.15” MTD.

12Z UKMET fairly similar to 0Z run but SE of that track:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 27.0N 83.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 27.0N 83.0W 1012 27
0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 27.2N 82.5W 1010 23
1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.3N 81.3W 1012 29
0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 30.0N 79.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 31.8N 77.6W 1004 39
0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 33.8N 75.5W 1001 41
1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

Further to my CFSv2 post above, here’s how the CFSv2 did in the E US with their mid-July forecasts for the subsequent JFM:

For ‘26 (Nina) too warm

For ‘25 (Nina): close NE; too warm SE

For ‘24 (Nino): too cold, especially NE

For ‘23 (Nina): much too cold, esp. NE

For ‘22 (Nina): overall a bit too warm

For ‘21 (Nina): a bit too cold

For ‘20 (warm neutral): much too cold (similar miss to ‘23)

For ‘19 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE

For ‘18 (Niña): close

For ‘17 (Niña): much too cold (similar miss to ‘20 and ‘23)

For ‘16 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE

For ‘15 (Nino): much too warm NE, too warm SE

For ‘14 (cold neutral): a bit too warm (good forecast but not cold enough)

For ‘13 (cold neutral): close

For ‘12 (Niña): much too cold (similar to ‘17, ‘20, ‘23)

 The all important tally for the 15 JFMs of ‘12-‘26 to give us idea of summer CFS bias:

1) NE
-Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12

-Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13

 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) too cold…so not a strong cold bias averaged out where one can take a CFS fcast and assume it will be too cold since only 40% too cold…thus, that wouldn’t be wise
 

2) SE

-Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12

-Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13

 Overall, averages a cold bias in the SE, especially since 4 much too cold and none much too warm. OTOH, not a strong cold bias averaged out since only slightly more than 50% too cold; so wouldn’t be wise at all to assume CFS will verify as too cold

@mitchnick

On 7/13/2026 at 5:16 PM, GaWx said:

Don’t  the messenger:  I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?

Precip anoms from same run:

On 7/13/2026 at 9:44 PM, mitchnick said:

Knock yourself out! Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/

 After researching this carefully, the following CFSv2 forecast map that JB posted for 2027 actually may not be the coldest population weighted CFSv2 JFM forecast overall for the U.S. on the site predicted in summer, which goes back to the progs for JFM of 2012:

  Regarding the following forecast, which was made in the summer of ‘13 for JFM of 2014, the U.S. overall may be colder than the above map on a population as opposed to geographically weighted basis because the most heavily populated NE to upper Midwest is significantly colder despite the warmer S:

 JB was specifically referring to pop. weighted this far out as he said: “ Population Weighted, CFSV2 with Coldest JFM in hits archive

I went back thru all CFSV2 forecasts since 2012 on its site.

This is the coldest JFM it has ever shown from this far out“

Now, regarding a JFM prog made at anytime of year, which JB wasn’t talking about, this one made in early Jan for 2013 appears to be the coldest of any I found on either a pop or geo wted basis:

 Interestingly, the aforementioned recent forecast for JFM 2027 is not that much colder than the following one also made in summer for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):

 The above summer of ‘15 prog for JFM ‘16 ended up failing miserably for most of the country as this is what actually happened:

 This miserable failure, itself, doesn’t exactly bode well for those like me hoping the cold on the JB posted CFS for JFM ‘27 will verify well since we’re  again going into a super-Nino.

I just noticed that the 0Z UKMET has a NE Gulf TD from this on Sunday and a TS offshore the SE US on Tue:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.8N 83.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 27.8N 83.1W 1011 33
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.5N 83.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 29.2N 82.1W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 30.2N 81.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 32.2N 79.1W 1002 40
0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 34.7N 75.5W 1000 47

31 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form.

This could be the best case scenario from a helping reduce the SE drought perspective. A not too strong TC that provides beneficial rains (hopefully not flooding obviously).

 I’ve exceeded 2” over the last hour, heaviest hourly rate of the summer so far, but it’s lightened up quite a bit although it hasn’t stopped. Drainage projects areas have both held up well so far and the street isn’t as bad as it had been before the nearby ditch was redug.

Follow-up for SAV area flooding:

455 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A 

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... 
BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... 
CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... 

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT. 

* AT 455 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF 
RAIN HAVE FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE 
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED 
TO BEGIN SHORTLY. 

HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, 
HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR 
DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. 

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... 
POOLER, RICHMOND HILL, WINDSOR FOREST, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, COFFEE 
BLUFF, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE, 
HUTCHINSON ISLAND AND MONTGOMERY

—————

*Edit: I ended up with ~2.15”.

 There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged.

 This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.

Some just popped thunderstorms in my area at 4PM moving slowly W.

CTG lightning strike very close!

4:47PM update:

 I just had another close CTG strike. We are getting hit hard with very heavy rain in much of the SAV area. I’ve already had ~1.5” and it is still pouring. This will really test my recent drainage projects! As a result:

CHATHAM GA- 
422 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026 

..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON 

* WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. 

* WHERE...CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... 

* WHEN...UNTIL 545 PM EDT. 

* IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... 
- AT 417 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW 
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, AREAS OF CHATHAM 
COUNTY, INCLUDING THE CITY OF SAVANNAH, IS EXPECTED TO SEE 
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO A FEW ROADS TO DEVELOP DEEP PONDING OF 
WATER OR ROADWAY FLOODING. 
- SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... 
POOLER, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, WINDSOR FOREST, 
I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, 
SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, COFFEE BLUFF AND GODLEY STATION.

Just a trace of rain here today. “Only” 93 today at KSAV, which is actually NN, after a 9 days straight of upper 90s-100.