GaWx

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting

Looking at mid May relative 1+2, 1997 was +2.2 and rising (it hit +3.0 in early June and +4.0 in early Aug) vs 2026 being +1.3 and rising. Otherwise, 1997 and 2026 are very close in 3, 3.4, and 4. So, that’s why I have 1997 more E based than 2026 as of the mid May snapshot. It’s all because of 1+2, which has a 0.9C diff although it’s a more volatile area since smaller.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too. 

In mid May vs 2026:

-2023 was more E based

-2015 was similar

-1997 was more E based

-1991 and 1982 were more W based

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....

1. Per that table, 2023 had a record high IOD for the months of Aug and Sep.

2. Keep in mind that IOD levels have had a notable longtime rise though. So, that biases more recent years toward a higher +IOD. Even the warm neutral (as opposed to El Niño) 2019 had a very strong +IOD in autumn/2nd strongest only to 1997! And as I already said, the very weak El Niño of 2018 still was able to have a strong +IOD.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Either way it will be mild, but we would at least have a shot at a decent stretch if you're right.

So the +IOD wasn't that strong in 2015 and 2023??

I’m not @snowman19but I can tell you based on the link below that 2023 was similar to 1997 in having a very strong +IOD. 2018 was next and then 1994.

 1972, 1982, 2006, and 2015 were next (still moderately strong).

 Keep in mind:

-There’s been a decided longterm rise of the IOD in this table. So, it isn’t adjusted for long term trends. That’s why 2018 had such a strong +IOD despite El Niño being weak.

-IOD tends to peak ~Oct-Nov and falls off in winter, especially when strongly positive in autumn. So when moderate to strong +IOD in SON, it about always has had a notably lower DJF vs SON.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The coming winter season is goin to be a good test as to whether the absolute RONI value or the delta between it and the RONI is of greater significance. The key is whether or not we get that "La Nino" half-assed Aleutian low like 2023 again.

 Evidently based on pro mets I follow, having relatively cooler SST anomalies near Australia compared to warmer anomalies to the east of there will be crucial. For 2023, the models, which earlier had the nice E US trough/Aleutian low that we were salivating over, were then erroneously forecasting cooler near Australia, which is pretty typical of El Niño.

 This strong El Niño is great news for the really bad drought the SE has been enduring.

Latest CFS RONI peaks at +2.65 to +2.70 in OND, which would be a record high beating 1982:

Latest CFS ONI is +3.25-30 in OND, meaning keeping the differential near 0.6:

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whereas the warmth this time around looks to setup where? (Or is it too early to tell) Trying to know if I shoild expect a 72-73/97-98 torch or not, lol

 I’ve got the solution. If you want to minimize the chance for a warmer than normal winter where you live, just move down south and your chances will fall substantially!

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Believe it or not, April and May have a slight inverse correlation. There is 0.1 tendency for the NAO in these months to reverse each other. 

Thanks, Chuck. Does it say anything about the May AO, That’s projected right now to be +AO.

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs)

The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27)

FWIW, it appears as of the current GEFS 14 day forecast that we’re probably headed for a net relatively small -NAO for May as a whole.

BoM May RONI not surprisingly reduced from +1.1 to +0.5 but later months actually a bit warmer than prior run with Oct +3.0 vs +2.7 prior run and +2.7 record for a single month (1982)

5/9/26 run: May was at +1.1

5/16/26 run: May down to +0.5 but warmer later months

Weekly relative SSTa update: Nino 3.4 slight rise to +0.5 (Nino threshhold):

Cal wk midpt…...1+2……...3….…..3.4……..…4

01APR2026         0.8       -0.3       -0.3        0.2
 08APR2026         1.1       -0.1       -0.2        0.3
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
 29APR2026         0.7        0.5        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.6        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.5        0.6

28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. 

My educated guess is that the current/daily RONI equivalent is ~+0.5 although like the ONI it is always moving, of course.

Lows in this area were in the mid 50s, significantly below the low 60s normal. Dewpoints are still way down in the low 40s.

This evening it was warm (mid to low 80s), but dewpoints were only in the upper 30s, something sometimes hardly seen in an entire May in this area. So, that along with a decent breeze meant enjoyable walking vs what’s typical for mid May. It was 100% sunny.

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

This tweet is a bit deceptive because whereas 2026 ONI is, indeed, warmer than ‘97 and ‘15, ‘26 RONI is actually slightly cooler than both at the moment. Stay tuned to see what lies ahead!

Latest CDAS suggests resumption of warming started: this is an approximation of ONI but with a slight cold bias (this implies RONI daily equivalent of ~+0.5)

Latest CFSv2 ens AAM prog: nothing notable

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Southern Georgia and northern Florida definitely got a beneficial system. 

 Any rain is good. And even the clouds, alone, keeping down temps and thus evaporation is beneficial. But the more beneficial rains of the last few days been much more the case further S in S GA in a places like Alma, and Valdosta, as well as in N FL places like Gainesville and especially TLH. I got a very nice 1.2” on 5/2, but only ~0.25” since due to all of the rain periods since being only a couple of hundredths at a time.

 After eating a snack, I’m waiting in my vehicle here at the park to see if the current light rain will lighten up and thus allow for a mainly dry walk. I hope so because walking conditions are otherwise pretty darn good for mid-May with only mid 60 temps, a nice NE breeze, and dewpoints in the mid 50s. Regardless, today was/is very pleasant comfort-wise for mid-May.

Edit: I got the walk in as the rain stayed very light.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The DWKW has started to surface and an “El Nino Costero” has developed off the South American coast in region 1+2:
 

 

^ Translation: “#El_Niño_Costero. Upwelling of warm waters along the central coast is evident, as is a significant increase in air temperature along the Lima coast, with temperatures today ranging between 26-31°C. SST anomaly reaches up to 5°C along the Lima coast.”

 

 Here’s the raw (rather than relative) anomaly for the daily OISST in Nino 1+2: ~+1.5C (relative is ~+1.0C)

 We’re getting some rain this morning from the N edge of the precip. area. The possibility of rain for today wasn’t even mentioned in the forecast for this far N until late last night as the N edge of rain chances had been forecasted S of here. Temps are in the middle 60s.

On 5/9/2026 at 8:01 PM, GaWx said:

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

 Today’s weekly release has about as expected (due to the temporary pause in the warming) Nino 3.4 steady vs the prior week at +0.4. Nino 4 also remained steady at +0.5. Nino 3 rose slightly from +0.5 to +0.6. The more volatile (because much smaller) Nino 1+2 bounced back from +0.7 to +1.0:

Midweek date…..1+2……..3…..….3.4..…..4
 

 01APR2026         0.8       -0.3       -0.3        0.2
 08APR2026         1.1       -0.1       -0.2        0.3
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
 29APR2026         0.7        0.5        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.6        0.4        0.5

On 5/7/2026 at 1:01 AM, GaWx said:

 Well, well, well…if it isn’t the GFS up to its old tricks again. The 18Z GFS literally gives Tahiti on 5/13 a record low May SLP due to a nearby tiny surface low that gets as low as 1002 mb, highly unusual for May as it’s ~12 mb/0.36” BN. This results in ~1004.5 mb Tahiti pressure on 5/13. How low is this vs May history back to 1992? Well, the record low is 1004.7 (5/10/2002, during another incoming Nino). Second lowest? 1006.1 (5/31/1997, another incoming El Niño). Other very low SLPs there in May were also during incoming El Niño periods: 1007.5 on 5/9/2015 and 1007.8 on 5/19/2009.

 Will the record low May Tahiti SLP verify? Very highly doubtful considering that only the 18Z GFS had it that low with a tiny low almost right on top of Tahiti whereas other models had no low:

18Z GFS: 1002 low very near Tahiti

 

 But other recent GFS runs have also had a tiny low nearby though not as close. The brand new 0Z has the low but it’s not as close nor as strong (1005 instead of 1002). So, its lowest 24 hour averaged Tahiti pressure is only down to 1009 mb (on 5/12).

 I thought it was a good idea to post this because this could cause a couple of very strong -SOIs 5/12-13. Even just down to 1009 at Tahiti like the 0Z GFS has would mean a -35ish 5/12 SOI with near avg Darwin SLPs.

 This reminds me to mention that while Tahiti SLPs have been BN to MBN for most of the last 30 days (common with incoming Nino), there still have been no high pressures at Darwin, which have largely been NN. This is near the opposite of how April of 1997 went. It had 17 days of Darwin SLP of 1012+ vs only one day of that in April of 2026! There are few, if any, 1012+ in sight as of now other than possibly today, which may end up just above 1012 at Darwin.

 We did finally get another 1012+ mb today at Darwin though only barely (1012.15) helping to bring today’s SOI down to -9.25, lowest in a week though still not a strong -SOI. However, Darwin SLP is forecasted to fall back very shortly.

 Looking ahead, the GFS not surprisingly (being that no other model had it) took away that tiny sfc low near Tahiti from its 5/12-13 maps and thus there won’t be those very strong -SOIs that an actual low would have generated. However, all of the models have general notably low pressure at Tahiti 5/14-6. That should result in notable -SOIs for those days. But because Darwin SLPs are also then progged to be somewhat BN, these won’t be as low as they could have been.
 

 Although Tahiti SLPs have been El Ninoish (- SLP anomalies) and will continue to be overall, Darwin SLPs still aren’t progged to be notably El Ninoish (+ anomalies). To get that, the N portion of the cold sfc highs coming from the cold regions to the south needs to extend more strongly further N into N Australia to get Darwin SLPs to go AN. They are forecast to rise back up modestly mid to late next week in N Australia on the N end of chilly high pressure, but it remains to be seen if they’ll rise that much at Darwin to result in a notably -SOI period then.

One year ago: do Atlanta area, other N GA, and W Carolina peeps remember what happened? It was quite an unusual event and a pretty big deal!

Edit: Answer: Earthquake on 5/10/25 that shook from ATL area to E TN/W Carolinas 

@suzook