GaWx

AAM says here comes El Niño!

Today’s EW is back down to -5 for the low of the 10 mb mean wind (2nd lowest to the run of 3 days ago that had -11) and it has 100% reversing (same as run of 3 days ago) though the run still shows no sign of notable longlasting cold before April (only subtle hint for Apr 6-12 in Midwest/NE): note that I don’t base these posts on the bogus too cold especially late portion of WB extended EPS, which practically every run go to BN in most of the E US late and Rockies most of run; if one goes by those, they’ll always be thinking cold in the E US by late in the runs….ridiculous; unfortunately these too cold maps influence some pro mets @donsutherland1is aware of this problem

 More on the WB cold bias issue:

Today’s April 6-12 from ecmwf: a few areas 1-2F BN and that’s the coldest! This is what I mean by just subtle hints of cold:

Today’s April 6-12 from WB: the west is absolutely laughable and east is also significantly too cold! And note that this climo (1991-2020) is colder climo than ecmwf, which uses just the last 20 years meaning that alone should make the WB maps a little warmer rather than significantly colder than the in-house maps!

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We frequently get freezes into mid April in central NC. A few years ago during the first week of turkey season (second week of April) I woke up to 24 degrees in Louisburg NC, was absolutely not dressed for that. Long range looks extremely warm for first half of March, but I am confident there will be more sub freezing mornings before April 

 Wow! In terms of light freezes, KSAV has had them as late as April 16th! But that 32 was way back during a colder era, 1962. However, we’ve much more recently in early April had 2 light freezes in 2007 and even a 32 on April 3rd just 5 years ago!

1 hour ago, yotaman said:

I know that we have had hard freezes in March, usually early to mid, before so I don't count out the 20s until the end of the month. 

Thanks. Even way down here, record lows til the midpoint of March are in hard freeze territory including a 26 on March 16th in 2017! There were even a couple of hard freezes in late March though they were way back in the 1950s.

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for posting this. These are interesting to follow.

 -GEFS not surprisingly came in a bit weaker with its amplitude. However, it still remains stronger than Euro/JMA.

-Stark timing differences remain. On March 7th, whereas GEFS is still in phase 5, EPS/JMA are in phases 7/1!

5 minutes ago, konksw said:

A week and 2 days till daylight saving time. 

 But that means of course that anyone wanting to see the 0Z Euro before bedtime has to stay up an extra hour. I’m not looking forward to that and all of the runs of models coming out an hour later. I like the GFS starting to roll at 10:30 instead of 11:30 AM/PM. The MJO and teleconnection indices also come out an hour later.

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Long range have the cold coming back around mid month . Its March so it shouldn't last long but that would be the last period to watch for a storm especially interior. 

That’s news to me, Anthony, even up your way:

Today’s Euro Weeklies are mild, not cold, at midmonth:

Mar 9-15: way above normal NYC

Mar 16-22: AN NYC

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah if that SSW comes to pass, that could lead to some annoyingly cold but too warm for snow late March and into April.

The last few Euro Weeklies runs have been showing no sign of a significant cooldown in late March or first half of April in the mid-Atlantic and most of the E US and thus are in total disagreement with Joe Bastardi’s near annual prediction of a cold late March and early April:

Mar 16-22:

Mar 23-29:

Mar 30-Apr 5:

Apr 6-12:

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Crazy how it always swings back from cold to something extreme on the warm side. 

Most of the March maps, especially early to mid, have been on the warm side for much of the E US for a good number of runs. But now these are even warmer and extend into the first half of April. They totally argue against JB’s cold late Mar/early Apr lol.

Todays EW look pretty awful if you’d prefer BN in the E US. And I’m not talking about the WxBell crappy always too cold maps. I’m talking about the ECMWF’s own much more trustworthy maps. They’re not pretty unless you want mild or even borderline torching. Also, the 10 mb is for the 2nd day not dipping as much: only dips to -2 (though with still a large majority reversing) vs -5 (with almost all reversing) yesterday and -11 (with 100% reversing) two days ago. 

22 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

El Niño is just what the doc ordered for much of the SE. But its main wet effects would probably not be til Nov based on history. We’ll see as no two Nino’s are the same. In the meantime more normal rainfall will hopefully show up in March.

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS not backing down on the MJO progression.

Thanks. The EPS and JMA (see images below) continue to also be consistent with their respective prior runs having it progress more quickly and at low amplitude inside circle vs the GEFS: these get to phase 7-8 by the 6th-7th when GEFS is just entering phase 6. GEFS as you’ve pointed out tends to be more accurate in this sector with its progression but often with too much amplitude when the others are weaker like in the current case. So, I’ll be looking for the actual amplitude to verify weaker than GEFS and stronger than EPS/JMA perhaps close to the circle. I’ll be also looking for the progression to be a little faster than GEFS but slower than EPS.

Today’s isn’t quite as aggressive as yesterday’s 100% of all members reversing and a mean dip to -11 although it’s still more aggressive than all the other runs with ~97% reversing and the mean dipping to -5:

 I’m wondering if the projected early March SSWE could end up as a SFW, a subject @snowman19knows as much about as just about any regular here. Below is yesterday’s EW, which suggests it will reverse March 3-5. It also suggests there’s only a very low probability for this to end up as a SFW as there’s no more than 1-3% showing that:

 So based on that, there’s no reason as of now to expect this to be an SFW. However, what if the improbable event were to actually happen? It would be at or near a new record earliest SFW, which is currently March 5 (of 2016). Last year, which isn’t on this SFW table, was close with March 9-10, the 2nd earliest:

@snowman19any opinion?

GEFS still has huge disagreement with EPS! Also, JMA is much closer to EPS fwiw and is actually even further from GEFS!

EPS

JMA

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still plenty of time for snow for NYC on north especially at night and if there is sufficient cold.

  Hoping this means a BN late March/early April down here, which would be pleasant (highs mainly 60s to 75 with low dewpoints and lows mainly 40s…anything to hold off the build up heat leading to summer is always fine with me).

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Assuming phase 6 in March in a la nina is warm?

March following Nina winter by phase (based on Baltimore): remember these are just averages

1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo)

2: -0.1

3: +1.8

4: +0.3

5: +2.1 (2nd warmest)

6: +2.6 (warmest)(also warmest in Feb)

7: -1.7 (coldest)

8: -0.7 (2nd coldest)

AVG: +0.7 for all phases

Phase 6 breakdown:

MB 3

B 1

N 7

A 4

MA 5

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Just like that the models are decreasing rain totals again for this week

That’s depending on where you are of course. It looks like the heaviest has shifted southward into the Deep South leading to an increase there, where they also desperately need rain.

 Looking way on down the road toward next fall/winter, the highly likely El Niño is encouraging for rainfall prospects for much of the SE then.

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow

 I’m even more speechless than yesterday! For Mar 7th, the mean has plunged from +20 with only 2% reversing around then a mere 5 runs ago to -11 and 100% reversing on today’s!! Again, I’ve never seen anything anywhere close to this much run to run drop before. 
 
 Despite this, the EW run for the 3 weeks near and after Mar 7th is even milder than yesterday!

More on the PNA that was -1.2 for this blizzard:
 

20 NYC 5”+ snows for Feb -ENSO since 1950: PNA

2/1/57 -1.2

2/7/67 +0.7

2/19/72 -0.5

2/23-4/72 -0.5

2/8/74 -0.2

2/12/75 -0.8

2/7/79 -1.1

2/19/79 -0.1

2/5-6/85 -0.8

2/2-3/96 +0.7

2/16/96 -0.4

2/22/01 +0.4

2/12/06 +1.7

2/22/08 +0.7

2/8-9/13 +0.4

2/3/14 -1.1

2/13-14/14 -1.0

2/9/17 +0.7

2/1/21 0.0

2/22-23/26 -1.2

——————

Median -0.2

Mean -0.2

 -So, this latest one tied with 2/1/1957 for the lowest PNA for a Feb -ENSO NYC 5”+ snowstorm since 1950.

-Note that DC, which hasn’t done as well as NYC with a -PNA for a similar category of storms, didn’t reach the 3”+ criteria that I use for them.

@donsutherland1

2/22-3 NE Blizzard: indices

1. PNA -1.2

2. AO +0.2 (neutral)

3. NAO +1.1

4-5. EPO/WPO: strongly negative

6. MJO inside circle both days

2/22: phase 3 

2/23: phase 4

7. AAM: -0.9 (moderate La Niñaish)

8. SOI: +6

9. PDO: negative

10. QBO (30 mb): strongly negative

KSAV (official SAV station at the more inland airport) had a solidly cold 28 low (16 BN) and a 5 hour long freeze, not too common this late in the winter. The daily record low is 25. That’s quite the impressive turnaround compared to the record high (86) and high low (65) set just 3 days ago!
 
 KSVN had a low of 27.

 Today’s high will be a bit warmer but still only ~mid 50s, which is well below the normal of 67. This will be another great day for a walk.

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Horrible Spring ?

If by “horrible” you mean cool spring in the E US, good! Bring it on as I love it way down here! Actually cool late Mar/early April here means highs mainly 60-75 and lows 40-50 along with nice low dewpoints for great outdoor wx.

..RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ASHEVILLE  
 

  THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 28 DEGREES MONDAY, FEBRUARY 23 AT THE   ASHEVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF   29 DEGREES, SET IN 1989. RECORDS FOR THE ASHEVILLE AREA GO BACK TO 1869.