GaWx

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I took BAMWX’s word for it. Lol I guess they are mistaken?

 

 

 

 

There are no official Nov or Dec major SSWs based on reversals at 10 mb for any of 1983, 1989, and 2000.

To be fair if you read this closely, BAMwx isn’t explicitly saying that there was an early major SSW in any of those 3 years (if they were they’d be wrong):

A few of these years were absolutely blockbuster in December. Chances to replicate the intensity of cold in years like 2000, 1989 and 1983 are unlikely, but there is strong support notable cold the first half of December setting up.

 That’s not to say that the SPV wasn’t weak. Despite no reversal, 2000 was quite weak mid-Nov through Dec with a low of +4 to +5 m/s in late Nov as per the chart below: (I don’t have these charts for 1983 and 1989….does anyone else have a link to them?):

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The 1989 blocking was started by a combination of an early SSWE and a very strong MJO wave that went 7-8-1-2, which lead to the Thanksgiving snowstorm up I-95 and the record cold December…. 
 

Snowman,

 I don’t see an SSWE at any point in Nov or Dec of 1989. Where are you seeing that?

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-SSW-and-SFW-event-onset-date-year-and-type-identified-in-the-NCEP-NCAR-dataset-The_tbl1_267063738

 There are 5 major SSW events on record between Nov 24th and Dec 7th:

-1958
-1965
-1968
-1981
-1987

Here’s the Dec temp. anomaly map: E US mainly 1-2 F BN

Here’s the Jan temp. anomaly map: E US mainly 2-4 BN, which incorporates extreme cold in places during 1966 (late), 1982 (mid) and 1988 (early):

Here’s the Feb temp. anomaly map: E US NN:

 So, the coldest month regarding E US anomalies was Jan and the warmest was Feb. Feb. might have been even warmer (warmer than normal) had 4 of these 5 winters not been during El Niño, which tends to favor cold in the 2nd half of winter vs La Nina’s colder 1st half.

 All of this is telling me that should the late Nov major SSW actually occur, the coldest month could easily be Jan rather than Dec, which makes sense considering an assumed several week lag. But, of course, that would remain to be seen especially considering La Niña often favoring Dec as the coldest anomalywise.
 

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies are still cold and active in the central and east.

 

The latest PV is most likely at its weakest stage yet. 

I just saw it. Right you are and by a good margin!! Mean minimum down to ~0:

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I mean I'm a snow miser like a lot of folks here. I want snow and plenty of it! Why he won't simply admit to being a heat miser when it's so blatantly obvious is beyond me--all our biases are loud and clear 

Thanks. But to his credit, he backs it up well! Some on the other side don’t back it up as well. As far as myself, I clearly prefer cold and root for it. However, I do my best to post as objectively as possible and not let my preferences affect my posts. So, whereas I enjoy posting about cold, if I see a model that looks warm I won’t be afraid to post it to protect my objectivity. I post whatever I see, cold, warm, neither, etc.

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Haven’t even begun to think about it yet. But I do appreciate the vapid airhead commentary as always

 
 He’s just trying to be funny. It’s good to laugh at yourself. I do that all of the time! I’m my own best comedian when I laugh at myself as I have so much material! Geez, all I have to do is to look in a mirror. Come on, man, we all know that you enjoy pushing mildness in winter when you can back it up well (which to your credit you do), and that there are more that do the same on the opposite end sometimes without good evidence.

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s blatantly obvious now that we are going to be transitioning into an El Niño in a big way this spring. I think once we get to March/April the transition really kicks into high gear and it’s going to be rapid….possibly very rapid. Would not surprise me if the ENSO region SSTs reach weak El Nino status by the end of May

Are you thinking we have a good chance to get a strong+ El Niño per RONI? If so, are you thinking a mainly mild result in the NE US?

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For Washington, DC to New York City, a PNA+ is far more common for days with 6" or more snowfall except during the second half of February and afterward when the wave lengths shorten. New York City statistics since 1950:

For January, when wave lengths are at their longest, a PNA+ was present for 92.5% of days with 6" or more snowfall in New York City.

For Boston, the PNA+ plays a smaller role.

 Great stuff, Don! Since I had seen similar results in looking at the following for RDU big snows, I figured you and others might find this interesting:

21 RDU 6”+ snowstorms since 1950 (Niña or -neutral ENSO bolded)

1/19/1955 Niña neut PNA, neut AO, moderate -NAO

12/11/1958 mod +PNA, neut AO and NAO

3/2-3/1960 mod -PNA, neut AO and NAO

3/9/1960 weak -PNA, strong -AO, neutral NAO

2/26/1963 -neutral strong +PNA, mod +AO, neutral NAO

1/26/1966 neut PNA, strong -AO and -NAO

2/9/1967 -neutral mod +PNA, weak +AO, moderate +NAO

3/1/1969 strong +PNA/-AO, moderate -NAO

1/7-8/1973 weak +PNA, neut AO, strong -NAO

2/18-9/1979 neut PNA/AO/NAO

3/1-2/1980 neut PNA/AO, moderate +NAO

3/24/1983 mod +PNA/-AO, neutral NAO

2/6/1984 -neutral mod +PNA/+AO, strong +NAO

1/7/1988 mod +PNA, neut AO, weak +NAO

2/17-8/1989 Niña neut PNA, strong +AO/+NAO

1/24-5/2000 Niña mod +PNA, neut AO, moderate -NAO

1/2-3/2002 -neutral strong +PNA, neut AO, moderate -NAO

2/26-7/2004 neut PNA, strong -AO, weak -NAO

12/26/2010 Niña weak -PNA, strong -AO, moderate -NAO

1/17/2018 Niña neut PNA, weak +AO, strong +NAO

12/9-10/2018 mod +PNA, neut AO, moderate +NAO
—————————

For the 21 storms

-11 (52%) +PNA, 7 (33%) neutral PNA, 3 (14%) -PNA

-7 (33%) +NAO, 6 (29%) neutral NAO, 8 (38%) -NAO

So, whereas 52% had a +PNA vs only 14% with a -PNA, 38% had a -NAO vs 33% with a +NAO

So, whereas there were almost 4 times as many with a +PNA vs a -PNA, -NAO vs +NAO has been much more balanced.
————

The above is for all ENSO.
What about for just -ENSO?

-5 (56%) +PNA, 3 (33%) neutral PNA, 1 (5%) -PNA

-4 (44%) +NAO, 1 (11%) neutral NAO, 4 (44%) -NAO

So, whereas 56% had a +PNA vs only 5% with a -PNA, 44% had a -NAO vs 44% with a +NAO

So, whereas there were 5 times as many with a +PNA vs a -PNA, -NAO vs +NAO has been totally balanced.
—————

I found similar results for Greensboro and Atlanta. Bottom line: in the SE US, a +PNA is a bigger driver of big snowstorms than is a -NAO.

Daily PNA link:

Daily NAO link:

2 hours ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

For all the hype of this cold blast...it was never really anything but a normal cold blast for November in Raleigh. Back when I was a kid we got our first freeze here in October pretty much every year.

My best explanation is that the heart of the cold was aimed more toward your SW. Consider that GSP had 22, Macon had 25, and SAV/JAX had historic 28s! But from your area to the NE US, there was little (or no) record cold.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We dont want suppression

We do way down here, Anthony. Suppression is our winter bread and butter. Therefore, I love +PNAs! Nothing is more beautiful on a wx map than a very tall western N American ridge.

Allan Huffman going with a cold January in the E US. I wonder if this is because of a prog for a very early SSWE followed by a lagged cold effect in Jan: I’d be more than happy with this. I’d love another cold Jan! Not having a warmer than normal La Niña winter in the majority of the SE including another cold Jan would be a victory!

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 Thanks for posting this. I wonder if Alan’s cold Jan is largely because  of a prog for a very early SSWE followed by a lagged cold effect in Jan.

 I’d be quite content with this. Not having a warmer than normal La Niña winter in the majority of the SE including another cold Jan would be a victory!

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Coast to coast cold. Hmmmm

Indeed, there’s a much greater % of the conus with BN vs AN in weeks 1-2 of Dec.

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Thanks. This is what I was looking at directly from ECMWF rather than from WxBell and also this is strictly for Dec 1-21: still no prevailing +PNA

Dec 1-7: coldest MW to Rockies vs mainly NN NE/SE

Dec 8-14: coldest MW to N Rockies; slightly cold NE; NN SE

Dec 15-21: slightly cold NE, NN SE

 Today’s Euro Weeklies for Dec 1-21 are still showing consistent strong cold largely avoiding the E and especially SE due to a neutral PNA to -PNA not driving the coldest anomalies far into the SE. The Midwest to N Rockies are where the coldest anomalies remain concentrated.

AAM is still looking to go back to a solid negative next week and last for 2 weeks. However, afterward, this is showing a move back up closer to neutral for early Dec fwiw:

Natgas is up a whopping 5% due to increased late Nov-Dec cold potential.

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

November 1976 was the 9th coldest for the CONUS since 1895. It was the 5th coldest in the Northeast. Finished as the #1 coldest in the Ohio Valley and Southeast .So it was part of a widespread and long lasting Arctic cold outbreak which was common in that much colder era.

 The Earth’s average CO2 level was 333 during the very cold winter of 1976-7. That’s pretty impressive considering that it had risen from 285 in 1850. I’m assuming that the increase in sulfates was probably a big reason. To compare, it is now all of the way up to ~431!

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Matching the recent pattern of more narrowly focused Arctic outbreaks into smaller geographic regions than we used to get. The November 1976 Arctic outbreak was a longer lasting one and covered much of the East with record cold.

Reminds me a bit of the Great Lakes record cold in January 2019 which was short-lived and didn’t extend to the East with its most impressive cold. Also the February 2021 Arctic outbreak which stayed in the Plains. 

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

In the past, you know there were also times of narrow short lived record breaking cold too right?  You bring up an extreme examples every single time like that was normal, which it wasn't, even then.  Rarely is there long lasting cold in early-mid November in any year.  

 This map gives a good perspective that shows the record cold was widespread from the mid-south to the SE US and with a few in the lower Midwest and also in TX although, indeed, none in the NE US:

On 11/7/2025 at 9:54 AM, GaWx said:

Here are the progs for Nov 11th lows from the latest ICON/CMC/Euro/GFS/UKMET

1. GA
-SAV: 29/31/34/34/35
-NE ATL (Chamblee): 25/23/29/34/32

2. SC
-GSP: 23/21/29/27/29
-CAE: 28/32/33/32/34

3. NC
-CLT: 25/30/31/29/32
-RDU: 28/34/32/32/35

—————————
Average for each model for the 6 cities:

ICON: 26.3
CMC: 28.5
Euro: 31.3
GFS: 31.3
UKMET: 32.6

Any guesses for:
1. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do best?

2. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do worst?
———————

My guesses:
1. Best: Euro/GFS (tie)
2. Worst: ICON

Edit: I’m guessing that the average low for these 6 cities will be 30.5F.

Followup to the above based on lowest hourlies through 7AM (I’ll update this if any official lows turn out to be lower):

These appear to be the lows along with the model that was closest out of the 11/7 6Z GFS/ICON/Euro runs and 11/7 0Z UKMET/CMC runs:

SAV: 28/ICON
NE ATL: 28/Euro
GSP: 23/ICON
CAE: 29/ICON
CLT: 29/CMC
RDU: 30/ICON, Euro, GFS tied

-Avg of these: 27.8, which is significantly colder than my guess of 30.5 and lead me to be dead wrong with my prediction of ICON to be the furthest away!

-So, although the CMC was closest to only 1 of the 6, it’s average of 28.5 followed by ICON’s 26.3 were closest to the 27.8 actual

-UKMET’s 32.6 was easily the furthest

-So, ICON, alone, was closest to 3 of the 6

So, ICON and CMC did the best overall due to being the coldest while UKMET was the worst due to being the warmest

 @donsutherland1put together and posted this excellent table in the SE thread that says a lot about how historic this cold is in the Deep South:

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Savannah saw the temperature dip to 28° this morning. That broke the daily record of 31° from 1968. It is also the coldest temperature so early in the season since November 9, 1976 when the mercury fell to 26°.

 Thanks, Don! To add to this, today’s 28 F at KSAV (SAV airport) was colder than 78% of the coldest official Savannah lows for the ENTIRE November (records back to 1874)! The last time it was colder during the entire November was 2014.

 Even Hunter AAF base, which is ~6 miles to the SE (closer to the ocean), was able to have a low of 29! So, the ability of this windy freeze (as opposed to it being a radiational freeze) getting the cold all of the way to the coast was quite evident!

 Also, the official Jacksonville, FL, station (more inland airport) got down to 28! Closer to town lows were 30-32.

 It looks like various stations in Gainesville, FL, got down to 30-34. The official Gainesville (airport) got down at least to 32. I’m guessing its official low will end up at 31.

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Record cold in southeast according to news. Assuming this is due to la Nina.

My city’s official low (KSAV) as of 7AM EST was way down to 28 F, which beats the 31 record low for the day (records back to 1874). Not only that but also:

-last time it was this cold or colder this early in season was 1976

-colder than 78% of coldest for ENTIRE November

-last time it was colder in entire November was 2014

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but notice the coolest anomalies are out west which would indicate either a broad trough and/or a strong Pacific jet. 

If you're looking for snow, you're not going to get much in that pattern. This winter could very well be like last with relatively colder anomalies but a lack of snow due to unfavorable storm tracks. 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Verbatim, it’s showing a -PNA/RNA. If it’s correct with the -EPO/-AO/-NAO, then the entire northern tier of the lower 48 would get cold….assuming the EPO ridge gets poleward enough to tap cross-polar flow

This Euro Weeklies run verbatim looks to me like it may be closer to a neutral PNA than a -PNA for the avg of the 3 weeks and especially weeks 1-2 as 3 does look like it may be more -PNA (along with a -EPO, -NAO, and -AO): (not favoring the SE for intense cold and favoring the Midwest over the NE)

Dec 1-7:

Dec 8-14:

Dec 15-21:

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

You can add Wilmington, NC to that record earliest snow. Their previous record earliest was also 11/12/2013.