GaWx
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Posts posted by GaWx
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KATL’s warmest March on record is the 64.5F of 2012. That appears out of reach. However, their 2nd warmest is the 61.8 of 1945. Is it reachable?
As it is now, a record warmest first 1/2 of March near 64.5 is looking likely there assuming I haven’t missed any warmer ones. But then it’s looking to cool down significantly to ~50 for 3/16-22. That would bring the MTD down to ~60 as of March 22. After that, March 23-31 would need to average above 66 to get the full March average to 61.8. That’s ~8 AN for 3/23-31. Although it isn’t looking explicitly that warm, it is looking pretty mild on the extended ensembles. So, I suppose there’d be a chance for it to end up that warm assuming models aren’t warm enough although that’s 2-3 weeks away, too far to be able to predict. -
A good number of the last posts here would imho better belong in the 25-26 thread instead of 26-27. Isn’t March of ‘26 part of 25-26? And then the last post was about DJF 25-6.
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42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Transient 316-3/20 cooldown, then a massive warm surge across the entire CONUS moves in right around the Equinox
IF this occurs, we’d be looking at the realistic possibility for the 2nd warmest March on record in places like Atlanta. Currently, their warmest on record is the 64.5F of 2012. That appears out of reach. However, their 2nd warmest is the 61.8 of 1945.
As it is now, a record warmest first 1/2 of March near 64.5 is looking likely there assuming I haven’t missed any warmer ones. But then it’s looking to cool down significantly to ~50 for 3/16-22. That would bring the MTD down to ~60 as of March 22. Then March 23-31 would need to average 66.2 to get the full March average to 61.8. That’s ~8 AN for 3/23-31. I suppose there’d be a chance for it to be that warm although that’s 2-3 weeks away, too far to be able to predict.
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6Z GEFS clown mean for St. Patrick’s Day at 10:1:
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10 hours ago, pazzo83 said:
crude oil just hit $118/bbl - hope folks have bikes / scooters / EVs or their Smartrip card ready for this summer lol
Thankfully, though the front month of crude is still up sharply from Friday (~10-11%), some sanity has returned relative to where it was at its 119 peak near 10:30PM last night as it has fallen back to the low 100s. Later months hadn’t been up nearly as sharply based on the feeling that crude won’t stay up more than a relatively short period.
Once crude finally does start settling down and falling back, the ever-present challenge of retail following through will be there as they love spiking their prices quickly and reducing them back much more slowly.
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18 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:
crude oil just hit $118/bbl - hope folks have bikes / scooters / EVs or their Smartrip card ready for this summer lol
This is excluding the huge rise last week, which was the largest one week rise in the history of crude futures!
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Much needed heavy rain, due to drought, from a recently popped up thunderstorm now. This will also help to clean off the widespread pine pollen that’s on everything.
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Purely for entertainment as this is well out into fantasyland on 12Z GFS:
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16 minutes ago, roardog said:
The subsurface is obviously very warm and that's of course what the models are seeing. This doesn't always lead to that warmth surfacing though. There's more to it than just a warm or cold subsurface. We've seen early subsurface warmth trick the models before. I think 2017 was one of them years where that happened. Wasn't 2014 another one? The subsurface of course wasn't as warm as this year though. It'll be interesting to watch as the year progresses.
-My post above yours shows that the March Euro going back to 2005 was too warm by the most in 2014 and 2017 (1.1 too warm).
-2014 OHC wasn’t that warm in Feb but was in March
-2017 OHC wasn’t that warm in Feb/Mar
-1990, which is too far back to see model progs, had quite warm OHC in Feb/Mar (+1.1), but it didn’t lead to El Nino as it peaked at only +0.4 per ONI
Edit: This shows that OHC may have at least temporarily peaked in Feb:
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12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:
Unless RDU drops much faster than expected this evening we have blown the record out of the water with a low of 66 this morning. That’s a 6 degree record break, very significant
It might cool back to ~63-4 this evening due to the rain, but it shouldn’t get back down to 60 before midnight as it looks now.
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On 3/5/2026 at 9:30 PM, GaWx said:
Whew. All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/2029694752199754045?
My thoughts on this newest Euro 3.4 prog:
- They’ve generally been getting stronger the last few months.
-This run implies a super Nino peak.
-Keep in mind, however, that this is a prog of ONI, not RONI. RONI currently is ~0.5C lower. So, this implies Aug RONI to be near +2.1 -0.5 = +1.6.
-Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias in 3.4 of several tenths. So, a bc prog of RONI would very likely be only in the low +1s range in Sept.On 3/5/2026 at 10:33 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:^+2c by September, which the mean Euro is predicting, has only been done twice since 1950 (1997 +2.1, and 2015 +2.2). They were the two strongest El Nino's at a later peak since 1950 (ONI).
If you adjust -0.5 for the RONI, +2c by September would be the 8th strongest El Nino on record.
More on the Euro warm bias for predicting ENSO ONI:
Euro JAS ONI March prog vs actual
2026: ~+1.5/?
2025: +0.26/-0.28
2024: -0.39/-0.07
2023: +1.11/+1.37
2022: +0.04/-0.87
2021: +0.10/-0.45
2020: +0.09/-0.53
2019: +0.94/+0.19
2018: +0.5/+0.3
2017: +1.1/-0.1
2016: -0.4/-0.5
2015: +1.8/+1.9
2014: +1.3/+0.1
2013: +0.4/-0.3
JJA:
2012: +0.6/+0.3
2011: -0.5/-0.6
2010: -0.3/-1.1
2009: +0.4/+0.5
2008: -0.6/-0.4
MJJ:
2007: -0.2/-0.5
2006: +0.3/0
JJA:
2005: +0.4/-0.1
Summary of March 2005-25 Euro ONI progs:
-2025’s +1.5 prog is 2nd warmest to 2015’s +1.8, which verified very closely
-14 too warm with 6 being 0.7+ too warm
-5 within 0.2 (2 of those El Niño)
-only 2 too cold, though 1 was El Niño, with both being 0.3 too cold and recent (2023 and 2024)
-Avg miss: +8/21 = +0.4 with largest +1.2 (twice)
-Avg miss for Nino alone: only +0.2 with misses being -0.3, +0.2, -0.1, +1.2, -0.1, +0.3
-Keep in mind that these progs are for ONI, not RONI
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On 3/5/2026 at 11:59 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year
On 3/6/2026 at 8:50 AM, GaWx said:The Euro ENSO forecasts have a warm bias per looking at 20+ years of forecasts even as late as forecasts issued in early summer. Also, this chart is predicting ONI. RONI has now replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
RONI is currently ~0.5C cooler than ONI meaning that this chart is implicitly predicting only ~+1.6 in Sept rather than +2.1. If one then does a bias correction, they’d come up with only a low +1s RONI for Sept (moderate as of then) although it’s still rising then on the chart implying higher later.
More on the Euro warm bias for predicting ENSO ONI:
Euro JAS ONI March prog vs actual
2026: ~+1.5/?
2025: +0.26/-0.28
2024: -0.39/-0.07
2023: +1.11/+1.37
2022: +0.04/-0.87
2021: +0.10/-0.45
2020: +0.09/-0.53
2019: +0.94/+0.19
2018: +0.5/+0.3
2017: +1.1/-0.1
2016: -0.4/-0.5
2015: +1.8/+1.9
2014: +1.3/+0.1
2013: +0.4/-0.3
JJA:
2012: +0.6/+0.3
2011: -0.5/-0.6
2010: -0.3/-1.1
2009: +0.4/+0.5
2008: -0.6/-0.4
MJJ:
2007: -0.2/-0.5
2006: +0.3/0
JJA:
2005: +0.4/-0.1
Summary of March 2005-25 Euro ONI progs:
-2025’s +1.5 prog is 2nd warmest to 2015’s +1.8, which verified very closely
-14 too warm with 6 being 0.7+ too warm
-5 within 0.2 (2 of those El Niño)
-only 2 too cold, though 1 was El Niño, with both being 0.3 too cold and recent (2023 and 2024)
-Avg miss: +8/21 = +0.4 with largest +1.2 (twice)
-Avg miss for Nino alone: only +0.2 with misses being -0.3, +0.2, -0.1, +1.2, -0.1, +0.3
-Keep in mind that these progs are for ONI, not RONI
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1 hour ago, 64Storm said:
@GaWx What is the current record for number of record highs broken in the month of March at KATL? Any idea?
The current record number of non-shared record highs in a single March at KATL is 3 set by two of them: 1974’s Mar 8-10 and 1907’s 20th, 22nd, and 28th. Before today, 1974 had been the only March with a current 4 non-shared record highs for Mar 7-10. Wednesday’s (3/11) high is forecasted to be close to the record of 82. So, if Wed is 83+, then 2026 would join 1974 and 1907 with 3 non-shared record highs. Stay tuned!
March 1-11 of 2026 is likely headed to a record high for Mar 1-11, beating out Mar 1-11 of 1974. It’s likely going to end up near the normal for Apr 25-May 5!
I may as well say that March 1-15 of 2026 is also likely headed for a record high there for March 1-15.
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KATL once again had a record high today of 83, beating the daily record by 3!
Tonight’s 0Z runs will be the last runs to be released during standard time. Starting with tomorrow’s 6Z runs, they’ll be released an hour later on the clock due to the switch to DST at 2AM. That won’t change back til early Nov assuming no changes in the law before then.
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On 3/6/2026 at 6:35 PM, MJO812 said:
Keep denying the colder trend. This has been happening all winter. Soon or later the warmth will win out but not now.
After a cold March 12th-13th and then a couple of days of mild, the EW are still showing ~7-8 days of BN dominant cold in the E US that ends ~Mar 23rd. After that, in the NE they show back and forth averaging NN into early April.
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KATL had a record high Fri of 83, beating daily record by 3! Also, this was the earliest 83 on record.
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20 minutes ago, cmillzz said:
EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again
Overall this winter for the H5 pattern, I’ve seen it missing strongly at times in both directions. Now if we’re talking 2m temperatures, WxBell maps are cold biased.
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1 hour ago, cmillzz said:
Yeah, you can def see the emergence of a much warmer pattern towards the end of the ensembles. Quite a strong signal already, so I’m sure there’s some truth to it.
59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:Definitely
Its coming but towards April
After the one cold week (3/16-22), which is still coming, an AN signal emerges like it has on prior runs in most of the E US although the NE still has just a neutral signal in today’s EW:
3/16-22: nice
3/23-29: nice (from my standpoint) is over
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Saw my first wasp of the season. I love having to deal with them.
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:
Firstly,
"I" not comparing anything. That's a cite from the article. That's what the quotation marks mean.
Secondly, it is what it is... The numbers show that the rate of increase rose from .2, to .35.
you have a problem with fact of the numbers?
TT,
My apologies for wording that as if those were your own words. That was my bad.
I have no reason to refute the 0.35C rise of the last decade. 2023 had that sharp rise and that hasn’t come off with a new record likely on the way this year. But that’s just one decade and thus on its own it’s statistical credibility is much lower than that of the 0.2C of the prior 45 years. I assume you agree.
I’d think that a “correction” of sorts could very well occur later this decade after the upcoming El Niño and would be surprised if the next decade were to warm close to another 0.35C. Reversion to the recent mean decadal increase unless for some unknown reason the true underlying mean increase has suddenly risen.
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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:
Here's a fresh itch for deniers to scratch
https://phys.org/news/2026-03-reveal-significant-global.html
"Over the past 10 years, the estimated warming rate has been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015. This recent rate is higher than in any previous decade since the beginning of instrumental records in 1880."
Almost doubling the previous 4.5 decades of d(warm)/dt rate during the last 10, leaping from .2 to .35/d
Probably 2023 has big arithmetic weight in that, considering it was unilateral whole degree C among all systems on Earth, air, sea and coupling air/sea. It does make me wonder if ... suppose over this next 8 years there is no sudden wholesale planetary leap by another whole deg C, doing so all at terrifying once, where the "density" of the species ignores the eye popping significance again: Would the next delta settle back below .35C? I suspect there is a rather larger chance in the total probability spectrum for that being the case, because looking back at climate change of the past/geological inference, the climate does not move up or down in smooth graphical trajectories. There'll probably be simmering increases that "leap" every once in a while. If you catch one of those years in your decadal data set, you're deltas will boast ( or perhaps "roast" heh ) a bigger change.
The climate graphs are "serrated" with intra-time span periods that dips shits use to lout the planet's cooling off, or twist that to prove the warm data was faked... or whatever they need, while hailing from a position of really no much formal education and/or proven higher reasoning ability in the matter whatsoever ... so we should really allow them to guide destiny of humanity. Yeah!
TT said: "Over the past 10 years, the estimated warming ratehas been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015.”
TT,
A problem I see is that you’re using just one decade for the 0.35/decade calculation vs using 4.5 decades to determine the ~0.2/decade.
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39 minutes ago, Fozz said:
How reliable is this forecast this far out? Looks like it wants a super Nino but this is only early March.
The Euro ENSO forecasts have a warm bias per looking at 20+ years of forecasts even as late as forecasts issued in early summer. Also, this chart is predicting ONI. RONI has now replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
RONI is currently ~0.5C cooler than ONI meaning that this chart is implicitly predicting only ~+1.6 in Sept rather than +2.1. If one then does a bias correction, they’d come up with only a low +1s RONI for Sept (moderate as of then) although it’s still rising then on the chart implying higher later.
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
The recent Euro forecast increase in El Niño strength is due to the model initializing the record February upper ocean heat content for a developing El Niño. But as always we’ll have to wait until we get past the spring forecast barrier in order to know the exact strength.
If we do get another event near or over +2 only 3 years after the 2023-2024 event, then it would be a first. The unusual and record early warming in 2023 for a developing El Niño may have signaled a shift in the PCC near Nino 1+2 leading to faster warming and more frequent stronger El Niños.
Chris,
per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.
The RONI based peak of 2023-4, which has replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring, was only +1.5:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
March Banter 2026
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Crude front month plunged 10 cents in just 25 minutes a little while ago! I wonder what happened.
It’s now down 5 on the day to 86, which is an amazing $33 lower than its 119 peak just 17-18 hours ago! This is an historic day for crude oil in terms of volatility.
Edit: Now I know why. I just read that Trump says the war “could” end soon. But he could say the opposite tomorrow and it go right back up. After all he only days ago said it could easily go longer than a month. It must be a nightmare to trade this and stocks due to whiplash! But that also provides opportunities if timed right due to luck. Is this a cousin to the TACO trade?