4 hours ago, roardog said:

How high did the AAM get in 2023? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more of a response across the North Pacific as we go deeper into June if the forecasts for the rising AAM verify. 

1. 2023 never got close to a +3 as far as I know.

2. Prior to today’s 0Z run, the highest CFSv2 progged peak mean I can recall seeing is this that I saved from 12/11/2023, which had 2 getting to +3 amp and the other 2 to +2 amp with a peak mean of ~+2.45:

3. However, this run turned out to be way off as just 6 days later it had this, a progged peak of only ~+1.45 and actual peak was only in the low +1s from other runs I saved:

4. Today’s 0Z by a good margin had the highest progged mean that I’m aware of any run I’ve seen because otherwise I would have saved them: insane progged peak probably (since can’t see green member peak) ~+3.5!!

5. But the newest run (12Z) came back to Earth quite a bit from the insane +3.5 although it’s still progging a potent peak at +2.3, which is still the 3rd highest progged peak I’ve saved:

6. Keep in mind that the first time I had seen these charts wasn’t til 2023. Thus I have no idea what it peaked at in prior strong El Niños.

7. Keep in mind that while I like to follow this guidance, it is the CFSv2. So, although well worth following, always take with a grain, especially out 2 weeks+!

@Stormchaserchuck1

@snowman19

45 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Those who refuse to remember history are doomed to repeat it. DST year round would be a disaster. I was hoping your Standard Time year round.

 The Euro out by 1AM 365 days/yr? I sure could get behind that!

 I agree about the importance of knowing history to avoid repeating it. In addition to that, however, I’m worried that the influence of the almighty $ may be interfering with objectivity/logic like is often the case. 

 Today’s Euro rainfall for 5/25-31: still very impressive with even heavier for parts of AL/GA/SC (dark green area, which has ~3.5-4”+, is larger) although not quite as wet for E NC/Triangle/Triad as yesterday’s even though still quite wet. This would be what the drought doc ordered/dream come true. This is one of the most widespread very heavy Euro weekly rainfall maps outside of a tropical cyclone that I’ve ever seen! Many tropical cyclones don’t produce this much over such a large area! For this reason, although I’ve once again gotten nothing measurable and have had only 0.3” for the last 3+ weeks (its been like there’s a force-field here), I’m still excited about the prospects:

There’s a lot of bipartisan chatter again about making DST year-round like they tried in 1974. That was a failure due to morning darkness leading to school children being killed. So, they prematurely terminated the experiment:

https://washingtonian.com/2022/03/15/the-us-tried-permanent-daylight-saving-time-in-the-70s-people-hated-it/#

 The reason I’m posting about it here is because that would unfortunately mean all wx models coming out an hour later than they would during standard time in winter. Can you say 2AM 0Z Euro in winter? That would be absolutely horrible. 

The president, once again, calls for year-round daylight saving time

Joe Gatling, a golfer and a gardener, favors year-round Daylight Saving Time. “This would give me more opportunities … in golf [and] gardening]that is a little bit longer, so I’ll go for it,” said Gatling.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/president-once-again-calls-round-213659665.html

This 72 hour map shows how well much of N ATL metro did as well as much of E GA (not my area), NW 1/2 of SC, part of NC foothills/mtns and E Carolinas, portions of E TN, and some of N AL. It also shows the shaft for the immediate RDU corridor although their best 24 hour period was just prior to this as posted earlier:

More on the BoM warm bias: We remember how bad it was in 2023. But also: only 2 weeks ago, it had ~+1.15C for May (see image below) vs the latest’s only ~+0.55C in the image I posted in the previous post! It’s been doing this for 2 months and that’s the kind of thing it kept doing in 2023. We’re still likely headed for a super-Nino, but very likely not as warm as the RONI based ~+3.0C 3 month average super-super Nino the BoM is showing. It could easily be 0.5C too warm based on April/May and based on it being ~0.75C too warm based on forecasts from around this point in 2023:

The latest weekly BoM, which just extended to Nov for the first time, is forecasting a +2.9C RONI in SON. The record back to 1950 is +2.5C (1982). However, caution on the ultimate strength is advised due to warm bias as it’s been significantly too warm in April and May:

 I got just a T the last 24 hours and am at only ~1.5” MTD with most of that falling 23 days ago!

A band from Carrollton to Gainesville, which includes much of the N ATL metro, as well as to the N and NE of AHN centered on Madison county, did quite well the last 24 hours. As the map shows, some other areas of N GA, including near Rome, also did well:

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

And Sunday was supposed to be the best chance lol. 

Parts of Johnston county have been the RDU metro jackpot winners of the last 96 hours overall with 1.5”-2”. Here’s the last 24 hours: only they got significant amounts

Today’s Euro Weekly for May 25-31 is even wetter in the SE and is close to the wettest on the entire globe for that week for land areas in terms of anomalies!

 This has a max of 3.5-4” over N GA/far NW SC and 2”+ for just about the entire SE, just what the drought doc ordered!

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not sure about the resolution of this CPC product, nor therein ...how well it reflects the real physical state out there but this looks like the deeper warm plume's slightly shrinking 

 

 That’s consistent with this that shows a fairly modest drop over the last few weeks to ~+2.0, which I assume is just temporary before a resumption of the warming: (I believe this is based on the avg for the top 300 meters)

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We’ve had 0.58” total here (0.51”, 0.07”, TR)  keep seeing these 3-7” amounts in upstate and Charlotte 

 I’d love to have had 0.58” as I’ve had only a T total the last 3 days, which includes a T late yesterday afternoon and another T early this afternoon. After a beautiful 1.2” 18 hour long soaking rain on May 2nd, my area has been getting teased since with only ~0.25” total. But I remain optimistic for the upcoming week.

Last 3 days rainfall RDU metro area per Cocorahs reports for 24 hr periods ending ~7AM:

5/21-2: solid/best 24 hr period of last 3 overall with 0.5-1.5” for many

5/22-3: Johnston, SW Nash, S Franklin, and far N/SE Wake counties another good one for many with ok to quite good (0.3-1.25”) but W Wake, Durham, and NE Chatham <0.1”

5/23-4: widespread but only very light with heaviest only 0.06”/lightest of the 3 periods overall

 Maybe I‘m forgetting, but I don’t recall seeing even a drop of rain here since at least May 13th that is until just now. I finally got a few drops (a T) a little while ago and radar suggests I could get some more. But prospects aren’t great for much more this evening. Regardless, things are looking up for the next couple of days and much of the week to come with an overall wet pattern.

 I’m at only ~1.5” MTD. Thus, I had recently resumed watering regularly.

 Euro Weeklies are still quite wet in the SE next week (5/25-31) as this represents 2-3” for many:

 Good news thanks to El Nino for folks like me who prefer a not so active season and thus less risk of destruction in the SE and thus lower stress:

NOAA's outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a below-normal season is the most likely outcome, with moderate chances for a near-normal season, and low probabilities that the season could be above-normal. The outlook calls for a 55% chance for a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance for an above-normal season. See the NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons for more information. 

The 2026 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

8-14 Named Storms

3-6 Hurricanes

1-3 Major Hurricanes

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 45-115% of the median

———————

 It’s all relative though and unfortunately the midpoints of 11 NS/4.5 H/2 MH can still be devastating if land is affected as it takes only one like in ‘92.
 
 Also, NOAA has wide spreads. I’m leaning to lower half of these due to how strong El Niño is expected to be and not as warm ATL tropics as in ‘23.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

1 hour ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Hey Larry. I am aware of the Main Tropical thread, but personally I don't post or get involved in those board wide threads anymore. My focus is purely local and regional and I was wondering if there's interest with any other like minded folks in the SE Region. 

 Steve, I understand your focus. There’s nothing stopping you from creating it. But,

 1. The local/regional specifics have been taken care of by SE individual storm threads and even then participation wasn’t better than the main indiv. storm thread. Even SE folks often posted more in the main trop. indiv. storm threads. For example, the Milton SE thread here (link below) had barely any posts other than Kayman’s many tornado posts due to lack of enough interest despite its major effects on FL while the main Milton thread had over 2K posts:

2. Even without a specific storm, you, me, and others can already post about the tropics’ potential effects on the SE within the SE Mid-long range discussion threads as I’ve done before. At this time of year with not as much interest in those threads vs winter, the mid-long range threads can use more posts.

3. I don’t think it’s good to create more threads than necessary because it makes the already existing threads quieter. This BB used to thrive on general threads that all would feel welcome to post in. Now it’s become much more regional. But there still is one general thread per year (titled with ENSO) and one general ATL tropical thread that both welcome all to post in.

14 hours ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Moderate rain with thunder. 

I'd like you folks input on starting our own SE Region Tropical thread. I know how much trauma Helene brought to our Mountain neighbors. My primary weather focus has always been tropical going up along the Upper Texas Coast. The SE Region covers a tremendous amount of Coastline from Mississippi to the Outer Banks. El Ninos tend to throw a curveball or two not far offshore. If you think the SE posters would participate, let me know.

Hey Steve,

IMO it’s not needed because:

-An ATL trop. thread already exists each year, with a big increase in posts when the SE is threatened:

-When there are specific storm threats to the SE, I’ve started threads on those storms in SE region and probably would again if nobody else does. But even then, there were more posts in the main thread as tropical posts here were kind of limited.

-So, I don't think a 2nd general trop thread is needed here. I suggest posting in the general thread and then also in any individual storm SE threat if they’re created.

Last 3 24 hr periods of rain ending 7AM at Cocorahs reporting stations (Clayton Cty has no stations evidently): many ATL area spots already got a much needed 0.4-0.8” with more to come next few days

5/22-3:

5/21-2:

5/20-1:

58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I checked the radar and saw them doing the split around you

E ATL burbs doing quite well though.

Does anyone have a link to radar estimated rainfall?

The most solid Nino support from AAM yet if this CFS prog is to be believed:

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1982-83 was hands down the worst winter of the strong nino bunch here. 

1957-8, 1972-3, and 1982-3 had the most wintry precipitation of the super Ninos in the SE US. Also, 1957-8 was cold vs the NN of 72-3 and 82-3. 65-6 was also cold.

27 minutes ago, roardog said:

What is the site for the daily PDO readings? I can’t remember what it is. 

Click on 2nd chart on right at this link:

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

It dropped to -1.04, which is equivalent to the NOAA being in the ~-1.75 to -2 range.

Opinions on N half of ATL metro over next 4 days…should just about everyone expect 1-3”?