GaWx

57 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wasn't March, 2025 a +NAO? Closer to +1 I believe. 

+0.3. This month will likely be ~10 times as high!

 This summer forecast is from pro-met Travis Hartman of Vaisala Xweather. I received this yesterday free of charge as I’m not a paying client.

 “What kind of summer are we walking into?

For 2026, the early answer is: another warmer-than-normal season in the US and Europe with important regional caveats.

Ocean signals point to warmth
A major driver of the expected heat is the ocean. Global sea surface temperatures remain historically warm, and the North Atlantic is firmly in its positive multidecadal phase, also known as warmer-than-average Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). In plain terms, the Atlantic has been running hot for decades, and warm oceans amplify heat on land. A warmer Atlantic tends to pump up the Bermuda High, helping lock in warmer conditions across the Eastern US.

Enter El Niño—but with nuance
Models suggest that El Niño will develop through the summer. Historically, El Niño can take some of the edge off the heat in the Midwest and East by shifting the jet stream. But whether that cooling influence is realized depends on an unlikely character: West Pacific typhoons. Their recurving paths can tug on the jet stream in ways that promote cooler conditions across the US. Fewer typhoons, on the other hand, leave the hotter background state unchallenged. And recent decades have seen a trend toward fewer summer typhoons overall.

So, what does this mean for 2026?
The forecast calls for summer 2026 to rank as the 11th-hottest since 1950, with the strongest confidence in significant heat across the West and South. The Midwest and East are the wild cards—torn between ocean-driven warmth and the possibility (but not the guarantee) of El Niño-related moderation.”

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty sure we aren't getting a super El Nino.

Thanks, Ray. We all know that there’s lots of uncertainty this far out. It’s his bombastic style of Tweeting as if there’s little uncertainty about a super Nino that I’m noting just as he did in the first half of Jan for a supposed near record strong WWB that never occurred. @snowman19was the first to point his bust out. By the way Eric never acknowledged his big bust on Twitter.

 How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump-started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? He loves to be bombastic as this is just one example. His being repeatedly bombastic doesn’t make it the near certainty he wants us to think it is. Snowman, Don, and myself commented about this being a big bust in the 25-26 thread:

On 1/17/2026 at 6:19 PM, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be:

 

On 1/17/2026 at 8:24 PM, snowman19 said:

^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB strength is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really….

On 1/17/2026 at 8:33 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. I agree. We'll see if they ever acknowledge it.

 
 How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in late Jan that never occurred? 

Coldest ever recorded in March anywhere on the globe occurred yesterday in Vostok, Antarctica with -76.4C or -105.5F!

 
https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/photos/big-time-coldearlier-today-vostok-station-in-antarctica-recorded-a-temperature-o/1462495788561020/?

 It looks like that finally Phoenix didn’t 100. It was “only” 99 today.

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This was a fail. That's why long range forecasts shouldn't be taken seriously.

Anthony,

 I wouldn’t say that because the DJF AO was the most negative since 2020-1 with ~-1 averaged out.

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Phoenix: March 1-24, 2026 vs. its historical record.

Hey Don,

 Phoenix had a high of 100 today, the 8th day in a row of 100+! Before 2026, there had been only one March day of 100+ and that was right at 100 on March 26th! Holy cow!

Despite what JB is thinking (cold mid to late April), the EWs still don’t show anything of the sort.

 Per JB, the reason the 2023-4 El Niño was so mild in much of the U.S. is that there weren’t the typical cold SST anomalies around Australia that often exist during El Niño as it instead was warm there. He’s expecting colder anomalies around Australia this time.

 Remember how the model consensus had at H5 the beautiful E US and Aleutian troughs?

 Opinions?

 JB in recent days finally gave up on a cold E US overall 3/15-4/15. So, he’s admitting defeat regarding his forecast for an overall chilly March in the E US. He got the first week of this period right, regardless, which included a cold St. Patrick’s Day. But he’s given up on an overall cold Holy Week/Easter.

 However, he’s now saying, “I think there’s going to be a lot of cold air develop in April across the United States.” He’s basing this partially on the prospect of MJO in phases 2-3, which he said tend to be cold in April. (I haven’t done my own research on that.) He’s also basing it on the prospects for a -NAO and -EPO as well as a “crash” of the SOI after the TCs are done. So, he’s expecting “quite the trough” mid to late April in the E US.

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's Yellowknife's coldest March:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/monthly_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-01-17&dlyRange=1942-07-01|2013-01-16&mlyRange=1942-01-01|2007-11-01&climate_id=2204100&Prov=NT&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2026&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&Month=3&Day=23&txtStationName=yellowknife&timeframe=3&Year=1964

That translates into a monthly mean temperature of -17.6°F.

 

 

Thanks, Don! This tells me that Yellowknife won’t be as cold this month as it was in March of 1964.
 
 Unlike 2026, that month was post El Nino, opposite of 2026. That month was also quite cold further N, N of 80N (<-30C):

Compare that to the current March so far, which is ~-20C or >10C warmer!!

In addition to Fairbanks, cities such as Anchorage and Yellowknife, NW Territories as well as the area in between and surrounding have a chance to have their all time record coldest Marches. That’s ~2,000 miles long and ~400 miles wide area or ~800K square miles, which is ~18% of the combined square miles in Canada and Alaska or ~25% of the size of the lower 48!

 Does anyone have a link to monthly records for Canadian cities and more specifically Yellowknife? Anyone have a link to maps showing historic temperature anomalies by month for Canada like we have for the US?

 Yellowknife in March of 2026:

Mean temp March 1-23: -26C

Normal for entire month: -16C

March 2026 so far:

https://www.predictwind.com/weather/canada/northwest-territories/yellowknife/march

Normals in C:

https://weatherspark.com/y/2362/Average-Weather-in-Yellowknife-Northwest-Territories-Canada-Year-Round

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe that's the ranking, not the number of days.

Thanks, Don. Now it makes sense if the words “ranking of” are added before # of days of 80+.

@chubbs

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^I saw someone post this a few days ago.. one of the coldest March's on record for Fairbanks, AK

Alaska has been having one of its coldest Winters on record without actually much negative 500mb anomaly

Hey Chuck,

 Looking at Mar 1-23 actuals and the NWS forecast for the next 7 days, Fairbanks has a decent shot at its coldest March on record with records going back to 1906! The current coldest mean is -6.6F (1959). The MTD mean through 3/23 is ~-13! So, even with the next week forecasted to average near +8F, the MTD may not get up to -6.6F!

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg

40 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Days hitting 80F, month to date.

Hey Charlie,

 I looked and looked at this and still can’t see how this doesn’t have errors. What am I missing? Am I having a brain fart? Is this the # of days within March 1-22, 2026, with highs of 80+?

 I came back and looked again to see if my brain had been missing something. I still don’t see how a good portion of the #s on the map aren’t off. Is this mislabeled?

 Phoenix though very slightly cooler still hit 100 today!

19 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Thanks for posting these. I’ve seen similar charts showing lowered global wx related disaster costs in more recent years. Does anyone know the main reasons? Despite these drops (assuming these charts are accurate and not deceptive/being presented in proper context, which may very well be the case), are they projected to continue dropping as we continue to warm? That’s key to know.

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

maybe a super nino will finally couple to the mid latitudes more convincingly. 

 It, of course, still remains to be seen whether there will actually be a super Nino. The last one was in reality 2015-6 as 2023-4 peaked at only borderline moderate/strong per RONI, which is now the official way of measuring. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. Most model progs are only of ONI.

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I didn't say "never" in the Earth's history. Almost certainly there were comparable or even more severe heatwaves during the mid-Pliocene, Eocene Thermal Maximum, etc. I stated, that the current March heatwave "is the most severe heatwave Phoenix has experienced in the period where records exist (even prior to the daily period of record that begins in August 1895) during March." It is. There's no credible information to suggest otherwise. 

I’m roughly projecting that March 2026 at Phoenix will end up 12-13 F above normal. The current warmest of any month of the year is only 10-11 F AN.

 Side note: the NAO for this month is likely going to end up the most positive of any month since 1950! Does a +NAO in March favor a warm SW US?

After the very pleasant chill/low dew points of the prior few days, the last 2 days were back to summer with highs of 87 at KSAV.

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Even if there was a huge heat spike in 1879 it's always about longevity. How long did that type of heat last in 1879. 

Today's heat is a combo of extreme highs + longevity. Nothing in recorded history comes close 

I agree about the longevity of the current SW heat being very notable. Related to that, Phoenix has had a high today of at least 102 meaning 5 days in a row of 102+ after not having a single high >100 on record!

 But regarding longevity, doesn’t that bring the very long lasting 1930s dust bowl heat into the conversation?

 The March ‘26 NAO is easily headed to a record high for March (back to 1950). The current record is +1.85 (1989).

 Based on actual dailies March 1-22 and GEFS progs for March 23-31, I believe that the range of possibilities is +2.4 to +3.4. Remember to multiply the dailies by 2 to estimate the monthlies. The highest of any month is Nov of 1992’s +2.63. That is likely to be exceeded  (75% chance as of now).

Monthly NAO:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table