GaWx

 Going back to when I started following the CFSv2 AAM forecasts in Nov of 2023, the latest release (7/28/26 0Z) easily has THE strongest CFSv2 ensemble forecasted mean AAM of any I’ve ever seen/saved. The mean exceeds +2.5 by day 8 (Aug 5th), +3.0 by day 16 (Aug 13th), and +3.5 by day 20 (Aug 17th)! Although days 1-7 are a little shy of the strongest for week one of the forecast, all of the days day 8 to the end (day 32) are THE earliest periods in the forecast to get that strong of those that I’ve saved. Granted these have a notable +AAM bias starting ~day 15 that rises further with time as I’ve noted a number of times. But regardless, this one is very strong by day 8, which is early enough to be fairly reliable, and this run is as I said the strongest of any run that I’ve seen as a whole, which bodes well for the chance for a very strong +AAM dominating at least through the 1st 1/2 of August:

 “Typhoon Dolphin is expected to strengthen into a violent storm as it moves towards Japan's remote Minami-Torishima Island, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Wednesday.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamitorishima

INLAND CHATHAM- 
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GARDEN CITY, POOLER, AND SAVANNAH 
707 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026 

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM 
EDT THIS EVENING... 

TODAY 
MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX 
VALUES UP TO 112. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 
20 PERCENT.

—————————


INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WILMINGTON ISLAND AND TYBEE ISLAND 
707 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026 

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM 
EDT THIS EVENING... 

TODAY 
MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS 
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115. 
WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT
————

The low so far today at KSAV is 82! Will they get convection and/or outflow from nearby convection to get below that by this evening? Not likely but possible. If not, the 82 would tie a record high low.

The extended GEFS and more-so the EPS are suggesting a pretty robust monsoon (wetter than normal) getting established early to mid-Aug and staying pretty active though diminishing some near the start of Sept on the EPS.

 What period is the heart of the Monsoon climowise? 

14 minutes ago, roardog said:

That's actually frustrating. How hard is it in 2026 to be able to accurately measure what the RONI is? Is it because NOAA has a different way to measure RONI VS ONI or is it the actual water temperatures that are off between the two organizations? 0.5 is a huge difference.

Well, as the comparison to cyclonicwx RONI graphs have been showing, NOAA seems like it could be 0.3C too low. Regardless, BoA does seem a bit high. I just figured out that they're very likely using the warm biased (by ~0.2C) Coral Reef Watch SSTs instead of OISST, which is ~0.2C cooler than CRW:

CRW: was ~+1.94 for the avg of the week ending 7/26/26…so that almost has to be the reason:

The average of the 2 may be closest to reality. 
 

@snowman19

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Holy Moses! That has relative 3.4’s latest weekly averaged value way up at +1.94 vs NOAA’s +1.4! What the??

 The latest BoA continues to suggest a new record rate of one month’s warming of 3.4 for ANY month (back to 1950) with August ~1.1C warmer than July, similar to the CFS. Look at that steep slope!! So, now through August will need to really perform or else progged peaks would likely come down somewhat. Model consensus has had mid to late summer as the most rapid rate of warming for quite awhile. The record summer -SOI certainly gives it a fantastic level of support:

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s slightly misleading, the RDU record has been broken (previously 9.11”). It was set in 2024:
 

https://www.wral.com/archive/21561538/
 

The Raleigh record is what those tweets are speaking to and it is taking into account the switch to RDU as the reporting site in 1945, and observations at the previous sites which obviously go further back. So there is no RDU record pre-1945 as that site didn’t exist. But as shown, reporting site or not, tomorrow’s rain could shatter all records for the Raleigh area in July. My >13” total already has, if my site was official! It’s the wettest month I’ve had in 8 years of running my station

Thanks for the info on the current RDU station going only back to 1945.
 

 But that article did miss July 1991’s 10.27” at RDU:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Actually viewing the data that you're using is overrated.

Ray,

 Please explain why you think the NOAA monthly PDO data that I quoted is overrated.

 What do you think about JB’s choice of a cross between. 1957-8 and 1965-6 as analogs (warm Dec except NN SE, colder Jan with BN S 2/3 of US, even colder Feb (cold most of US), and chilly Mar) making overall NDJFM avg cold concentrated in S 1/2 of US and JFM avg cool to cold most of US)? They are similar to the CFS fwiw.

On 7/25/2026 at 1:44 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

RDU didn’t open until 1943, so those were not taken at the airport. The wettest July in RDU history was in 2024 with 9.11” and I think it surpassed that mark today 

RDU has had THE wettest July 1-26 on record with 11.13” with records going back to 1887! See more about July in the Tweet quoted below.

  This first 26 days of the month is the 2nd wettest 1st 26 days of any met. summer month with only Aug of 1908 wetter (13.63”)!

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

“1.17 inches of rain just after midnight today at @RDUAirport now has the monthly total at 11.13 and 4th wettest July on record.. We are just 1.23 from equaling the wettest July on record..”

https://twitter.com/SERCC/status/2081740186287849851?

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C):

 

 What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.

What in the heck is going on with the recent NOAA weekly releases for Nino 3.4? The week centered on July 22nd was only barely below +1.75 per the cyclonicwx.com OISST graph!

 01JUL2026         2.7        1.5        1.2        0.5
 08JUL2026         2.6        1.6        1.3        0.5
 15JUL2026         2.8        1.6        1.4        0.4
 22JUL2026         3.0        1.8        1.4        0.3

 The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The current -PNA is mostly a reflection of how strong the ridge is north of Hawaii is. That’s the really strong 500 mb -PDO we are getting in July.

The SSTs are mostly a lagging indicator since the 500mb drove the PDO decline since June. But there is probably a background feedback between the SST and atmosphere which has kept the -PDO so negative during the 2020s.

This summer PDO drop has been a common theme during the 2020s with a gradual rise to less negative or neutral by the winter. So our new 2020s seasonal cycle.

We can’t really predict the PNA beyond the short term so too early to put out a precise winter PNA forecast. But just to say that the 2023-2024 super El Niño with a -PDO had a less positive winter PNA than 2015-2016 with a strong +PDO

DJF 2023-2024…….PNA…..+0.58…..PDO…..-1.34

DJF 2015-2016……..PNA……+1.42…..PDO…..+1.07

 Joe Bastardi’s current primary analogs for this winter are 1957-8 and 1965-6. He showed on Saturday that the avg temperature of those 2 in DJF is close to what recent CFS means have had. But his basis of using those 2 is that they’re both 2 very strong El Niños with a -PDO. What the? Whereas I hope we get something like what the CFS has been showing, I can’t figure out why he’s counting them as -PDO analogs:

-1957-8 had +1 to +2.4 PDO every month from June through Feb!

-1965-6 PDO was neutral in July and then +0.7 to +1.4 Aug-Dec. Then it fell only to borderline -PDO in Jan/Feb (-0.3, -0.2).

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

That's the $64 question for this year. Will we see the same type of "gobsmaking" global warming we saw in 2023 or will this year behave more like a typical strong/super el nino. So far I'd put this year in the typical camp, with global air temperatures lagging the rise in ENSO and global SST.  

One aspect that has held back global temperatures in the past 2 months has been very cold temperatures in Antarctica associated with a strong AAO+ regime.  In 2023 AAO was strongly positive in January (see AAO table below), reversing by March, and staying negative through September. So the AAO boosted global temperatures in the first half of 2023 but are holding them back this year. One of the many factors that contributes to a different outcome in 2026 vs 2023. If the AAO reverses in August there will be an added boost in global temperatures on top of ENSO. We will see.

2023  2.304  0.554 -0.258 -0.921  1.452 -0.438 -0.818 -0.038 -1.050  0.535  0.097  1.510
2024  0.922  1.043 -0.058  1.005 -0.073  0.210 -0.597 -2.150  0.098 -0.567  1.020 -0.826
2025 -0.080 -0.271  0.733  1.138  0.509  0.209  0.753  0.357 -0.709 -1.236 -1.324 -1.136
2026  0.848  0.489  0.492 -0.125  0.544  2.506

It’s interesting that both the Arctic and the Antarctic have been cold the last 2 months relative to the past.

 The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:

From an Evansville, IN, pro-met 

These were the observations at Evansville, IN for 4-5-6pm on July 26, 2026.

The dew point readings were 80-80 and 81.

The 81 deg. F dewpoint tied the record for highest dew point in history at this location. It happened on 4 previous occasions.

 I just got measurable rain for the 1st time in ~10 days with a quick popup shower moving quickly ESE (a somewhat unusual direction). It gave me no more than 0.1”.

 OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C):

 What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Just a suggestion if you guys make future snow maps closer to winter. It usually helps if you give a rough % of average to go in line with your thinking. I knew what raindance was getting at with the snow map (admittedly just a preliminary joke map rough idea) but it always looks funny when you see something like "snowy" in Atlanta and "not snowy" in Marquette. 

 “Snowy” in ATL can be ~3”+ as the average SN/IP is ~2”. Thus snowy in ATL can easily be from just one storm. More often than not, “snowy” in any particular location in the SE US away from the mountains is mainly from just one major storm along with possibly one+ minor hits.

 Another thing about a place like ATL or even RDU vs Marquette: a much larger % of the wintry precip is sleet or ZR when averaged out over the decades. I roughly estimate 1” of sleet is equivalent to 2.5” of snow on average. So, for example, ATL got ~4” of sleet in 2/1979 and 1/1988. They had the water equivalent, impact, and staying power of ~10” of snow. In addition, ZR doesn’t even measure as S/IP as we know. 
 
 So, the 2” ATL avg tends to understate to an extent its avg wintry precip vs, say, a straight 2” avg snow.

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe I’ll be wrong and if I am then so be it….I’ve been wrong before but I just can’t imagine the PDO staying negative this fall in the face of an extremely well coupled, historic super El Niño. My call is that the PDO flips to at least weakly positive by the end of November. If I’m wrong, oh well….

History strongly supports a +PDO by no later than Nov as 94% of the 36 mod+ Ninos since the 1850s had a +PDO in Nov or earlier as only 2 didn’t have a NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4.

It’s endless summer here with a very uncomfy 94 high at KSAV.

 I haven’t had significant rains at my place since way back on July 14th! However, Mon into the evening is looking promising. If that weren’t to deliver, it would be sprinklers time again.

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is 2015 a poor analog? 

2015: 15JUL2015     region 1.2   2.7     region 3   1.9     region 3.4.    1.4     region 4.    1.1

2026: 15JUL2026    region 1.2 3.6      region 3.   2.3    region 3.4.    2.1     region 4.    1.1

1997:  16JUL1997     region 1.2  3.8     region 3.    1.9     region 3.4.   1.4     region 4.   0.4

2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. 

Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. 

Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.

This image shows well that ‘97 was much more E based on July 19th:

On 7/22/2026 at 12:40 PM, donsutherland1 said:

A “must read” piece on climate, data, and data manipulation:

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/hot-days-cold-thermometers

Chris put out this yesterday. I hate his confrontational juvenile behavior, which is totally unnecessary. Ignoring that and acknowledging that 1936 was made much worse due to very dry soils/drought, does he have a valid point about a possible double standard in the treatment of 1936 and 2026 European heatwaves? After all, they were both regional and 1936 covered a much larger area I believe:

This is the 2nd part:

The recent European heatwave was also regional. But for whatever reason, that is supposedly “incontrovertible proof” of catastrophic, rapid global climate change. I really want to know how any person can have this level of mental retardation.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong 

Out of 36 mod+ Ninos since 1850s, only 2 didn’t have NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4!

47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This has to be confirmed but I think RDU just broke the record for wettest July in its history 

Through July 24th, it’s the wettest on record since way back in 1941!

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

At this time last year it was -3, so not as extreme as recent years. It will be interesting to see if we break into positive territory by December.

 To compare to the prior Nino, July was similarly strongly -PDO and it hit most neg ~Oct 1st. Then it rose to a more moderate -PDO: