GaWx
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Posts posted by GaWx
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Fwiw for next winter (I know forecast value is low), the new CANSIPS pretty much maintains the -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave/basin wide to central based La Niña/-PNA/+EPO of the prior run though all but -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave with less intensity. Also, it lost the +AO/+NAO to go neutral to slightly -AO/-NAO. Temperatures in the E US went (vs cooler base of 1981-2010) from a somewhat solid AN on the prior run to very slightly AN to NN on the new one. This is equivalent to NN vs 1991-2020 base. It cooled ~2 F. Again, fwiw and I’ll believe it will be that “cool” when I see it (due to model cold bias and very low accuracy that far out):
New 2 meter DJF E US:
Old:
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Fwiw for next winter (I know forecast value is low), the new CANSIPS pretty much maintains the -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave/basin wide to central based La Niña/-PNA/+EPO of the prior run though all but -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave with less intensity. Also, it lost the +AO/+NAO to go neutral to slightly -AO/-NAO. Temperatures in the E US went (vs cooler base of 1981-2010) from a somewhat solid AN on the prior run to very slightly AN to NN on the new one. This is equivalent to NN vs 1991-2020 base. It cooled ~2 F. Again, fwiw and I’ll believe it will be that “cool” when I see it (due to model cold bias and very low accuracy that far out):
New 2 meter DJF E US:
Old:
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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Classic tropical volcanic eruptions that get into the stratosphere typically cause +AO (NAM)/+NAO the 1st winter after an eruption. Then -AO/-NAO is favored the 2nd winter after
Fwiw the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which occurred 6/15/91, was followed by +NAO/+AO not only the next winter but also by an even stronger one the 2nd winter (strongest since 1988-9):
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
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Please post your May 2024 SE obs here. Thanks.
The first week of May is looking quite warm and thus more like early summer than late spring.
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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:
Looking like we are going to have a potentially interesting setup taking shape…possible volcanic stratosphere?, -IOD by fall?, strong La Niña (orientation TBD - east based/basin wide/Modoki?), -PDO, high solar max/high geomag/high sunspots, +QBO, ++AMO….
When you say “potentially interesting” with regard to the items you listed, are you implying anything specific? I’m curious about what you’re thinking.
To your list, I’d add the continuing effects of the underwater Hunga Tonga volcano due to the massive amount of moisture emitted. I’ve read one paper with an analysis that suggests that significant global effects, including added warmth on a global basis, will likely continue through ~2029. One thing it suggests is that there’s an increased chance vs climo of a multi-year El Niño later this decade due to this:
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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:
He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own
1. I don't know about snow, but he says that a mean trough in May near the E coast is often a precursor to big H seasons. So, he wants a trough there.
2. He has been wondering why the Euro weeklies at 2M issued directly by ECMWF have been warmer than the WxBell versions of the weeklies. I've been saying that WxBell maps shouldn't be trusted. Keep in mind that Wxbell SSTa CFS maps keep showing a +PDO late in 2024 vs other CFS maps showing a continuing -PDO.
3. I expect a very active H season, regardless. My hope is that it is similar to 2010.
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14 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:
I've been wondering about your ONI/US landfall correlation in prior cold ENSO seasons. Far above normal NS but below normal US impacts, something most people would like. I'm sensing another strong STR for Texas, and an early season TS/Cat 1 with some decent rain before the oven kicks on wouldn't bother me.
To clarify: What I actually found for the aggregate of moderate to strong La Niña ONI already by ASO was an AVG of NN H hits rather than BN H US impacts. Of course that’s just an avg as there were still some mod to strong Niña years by ASO that were bad for the US. But the avg for weak Niña or cold neutral ONI in ASO was worse with AN H hits on US. No matter what, there’s still a lot of variability/randomness of course.
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1 hour ago, Normandy said:
Part of me thinks it would be hilarious if after all this hype the season busted (meaning ends up just average or slightly below average). The parameters suggest, however, that this season will be a painful blow. Just have to hope for a bit of luck with tracks and intensity timing of each storm
As a near coastal resident, 100% of me would love for that to happen even though I’m certainly not betting on it as the odds aren’t good. Regardless, one of the top analogs cited by at least two well-known forecasters in April is 2010 because the MDR in March of 2010 was the 2nd warmest since at least 1981 and only barely behind March of 2024 (gray line just below blue line):
In addition and similar to what’s forecasted for 2024, 2010 was La Niña that followed strong El Niño. So, there’s a decent amount of hope for the CONUS to luck out with 2024 tracks ending up similar to 2010. I say “hope” because in 2010 the CONUS had no H hits and only 2 TS that had direct effects (with one only a minimal TS). This was despite it being a very active season with a whopping 12 H and 5 MH, similar to where 2024 seems to be heading as of now.
In 2010 (see image below), there were a whopping 8 NS that formed E of 42W. Even when looking at the aggregate of non-El Nino seasons, a large majority of those still don’t make it to the US even though a higher % do vs those during El Niño seasons. Fortunately for the US none made it past 75W, not shocking based on history.
There were 7 that formed W of 70W. Not surprisingly, all affected land. Belize and MX were particularly hard hit from this group. The two TS that affected the US were from this group.
Though not noted as an analog, 1995 (see image below) was another very active season with 11 H and 5 MH and with somewhat similar tracks. It also was La Niña that followed El Niño. Out of 12 NS that formed E of 72W, none hit the CONUS. But from the 7 that formed W of 73W, unfortunately 5 hit the US including 2 H (one H hit twice)(1 MH), very different from 2010.
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The 4/26/24 WCS PDO was -1.12, which is equivalent to a NOAA PDO of ~~-2.0:
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
While it’s a bit early for me to start thinking about next winter, the winter warmth since the 15-16 super El Niño has been simply astounding. There had never been a sustained 9 winter period in our modern instrumental period back to the late 1800s this warm before in the Eastern US. My guess is that the shift is related to dramatic warming in Western Pacific which began back in 2014. This is in concert with more frequent and higher amplitude MJO 4-7 phases. Even with the El Niño this winter the Aleutians ridge near the Dateline was unusually strong. This has been a repeating theme since 15-16. It also works to amplify the ridge and warmth in the East.
All the seasonal model winter forecasts since 15-16 have been significantly too cold. This is probably related to the models not having the capability to factor in the historic SST changes since 2014 in the Pacific when they have been making their seasonal forecasts. So it will be interesting to see if this pattern keeps repeating in coming winters or something happens to shift away from this persistent 9 winter pattern.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078
The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable.
In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF.
Why is there such a strong marine heatwave centered in the WPAC? Why there?
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12 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:
What year is that gray line near the 2024 line from?9 hours ago, chubbs said:Don't know. Here's the site with the original chart (Kim Wood's)
By going to Charlie’s link, I was also able to find the year that spiked so high ~May 25:
It was 2005:
To compare, here’s 2nd warmest for May 25 (2010):
Here’s 5/25/23 for comparison (3rd warmest):
Interestingly, 2005 cooled rapidly by June 15 (can see rapid drop on MDR graph with all the years) though it subsequently warmed substantially again.
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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:
Any reason why seasonal models have a cold bias?
I‘m talking mainly E US, esp in winter. It isn’t just seasonal. The major MR models as a whole have been too cold much more often than too warm for years. That’s likely why, for example, that there’s more often than not a NW correction of surface lows as we get closer in forecast time. When they have the lows too far SE, they usually prog it to be too cold in the E US. Then they come NW in later runs to match the warmer reality.
I suspect it is due to the very warm WPAC that @bluewaveoften mentions. This often causes the atmosphere to act like the MJO is in the MC even when it isn’t. This very warm WPAC has according to a pro met I’ve talked to helped to enhance the “SE ridge” (similar to what the MJO MC phases do), something the models usually underestimate for some reason. If the MR models are too cold, there’s no reason to expect the seasonals to not be similar. -
23 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:
What year is that gray line near the 2024 line from?21 hours ago, chubbs said:Don't know. Here's the site with the original chart (Kim Wood's)
By going to Charlie’s link, I was able to find the year by looking at Mar 1 anomalies of all years one by one in the dataset, 1981+. The answer: 2010. Nothing else is even close in the MDR except, of course, 2024:
Map above from here: https://www.psl.noaa.gov/tmp/mddb2/4mMm92fguL/sampleframe.png?timestamp=1714238797151
Here’s the slightly warmer 3/1/24 for comparison:
Note that on Mar 1 (as well as during the entire period late Feb-Apr 26) 2024 and 2010 are by far the two warmest. That’s why 2010 has been noted as one of the top analogs by at least two well-known forecasters. Note that 2010 anoms remained very warm through Sep 10:
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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:
LOL
WeatherBell Analytics was predicting 30 inches, and Joe Bastardi, the former long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, saw temperatures slightly below normal, “and the worry is it will be colder.” Not to worry: It was one of the milder winters on record.
Article: https://www.inquirer.com/weather/philadelphia-weather-snow-forecasts-20240427.html
1. When was the last time in advance of winter that he said the “worry” is it will be warmer than his forecast in the E US?
2. He mentions his energy clients often. Energy companies typically do better when winter is cold in the E US. I think this reinforces his natural cold bias in winter.
3. There was no major SSW in Dec like he thought might occur though there were a couple Jan-Mar.
4. He hardly ever recognizes the cold bias that has prevailed for years with the seasonal models.
5. I’m predicting he’ll once again not go warm for his FINAL winter forecast 2024-5. He’s already been showing strong hints about this. One thing he’s already harping on is suggesting a +PDO next winter based on what are clearly to me faulty Weatherbell CFS SSTa map progs for late in 2024 as I’ve shown, including not showing the E/SE of Japan marine heatwave and instead showing cold in a good portion of the W/C Pac. This is despite TT maps from the same CFS as well as from other models showing -PDO continuing.
6. There isn’t even a single winter when for the bulk of the E US he went warm at least since 2014-5 (I don’t mean just slightly AN) and stayed that way. There was one recently (2020-1) that he started off pretty warm (~+3) and cooled it considerably to NN for his final forecast. His frost covered glasses wouldn’t let him go warm and stay that way:
Prelim DJF 20-1
Final DJF 20-21:
One thing I will give him kudos for was recognizing the importance of the concept of RONI vs just using ONI due to the very warm SSTs elsewhere that were dominating even though it didn’t help his fcast:
“There is little cold water anywhere, so the difference in temperatures (relative SSTs) is nowhere near the standard El Niño”
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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:
There's other factors associated with this-- for example excessive flooding, more forest fires and higher air pollution.
Add them all up together and you have billion dollar disaster that need to be paid for by lowlifes like Greenskeeper and his kind who don't understand science and the fossil fuel cartels trash like him worships.
Thanks for your reply. I know there are major negative factors as I’ve said. I feel that CC is overall clearly a net negative. I’m just saying in the interest of honest discussion that that not every factor has been bad to this point, including deaths from temperature extremes. Like with most things, it isn’t all black and white and I feel it adds credibility to admit this.
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The major effects of CC to this point haven’t all been bad on a global basis. For example, fewer deaths from temperature extremes resulting from GW due to cold being a much bigger killer than heat. This is largely due to many more hours spent in the cold danger zone than within the heat danger zone in a large majority of locations:
“For the majority of the time, most cities have colder temperatures than their local optimum temperature, or the temperature that minimizes the death rate in that area.
“It has been estimated that about 5.1 million excess deaths per year are associated with non-optimal temperatures. Of those, 4.6 million are associated with colder than optimum temperatures, and 0.5 million are associated with hotter than optimum temperatures.”
“Deaths associated with non-optimal temperatures have been decreasing over time as it has gotten warmer partly due to a reduction in cold deaths. It has been estimated that warming from 2000 to 2019 has resulted in a net decline in excess deaths globally (a larger decrease in cold deaths than an increase in heat deaths).”
Whereas deaths from temperature extremes have decreased through 2019 per this study, the same study says that there’s much uncertainty looking well out into the future. A good number of models suggest that after deaths continue to drop in the near future, they will start to increase late this century. This is because heat related deaths are being projected by these models to then start increasing more rapidly than the reduction of cold related deaths. From the same study, here’s Figure 10, which shows London as an example:
Of course due to that being so far out in the future, there’s lots of uncertainty since increased acclimation/air conditioning could negate a good portion of the projected increase in heat related deaths. -
1. It was warmer today here but still very pleasant with dewpoints as low as the upper 40s early this evening. The walking was so enjoyable.
2. 114 years tomorrow Atlanta amazingly enough had 1.5” of snow!! This is to me easily its most freak winter storm there on record. It is 3 weeks later than the second latest accumulating snow there on record, three weeks later than Greensboro’s, one week later than Raleigh’s/GSP’s, and 5 days later than Charlotte’s latest measurables!More details are here:
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Yesterday and today have been two additional awesome days in much of the SE US. A little over half of the days this month have been this way here though April has averaged slightly warmer than normal.
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28 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:
Arctic sea ice extent is today higher (14.062 million km²) than it was 35-years ago back in 1989 (13.997 million km²), it is now the highest it has been in 11-years. SIE is now greater than 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007, the year experts predicted it would be “ice-free” by the summer of 2013. SIE should soon surpass 2002, 2008 and 2013 and is trailing behind 1995 and 1996, and has a chance at surpassing that as well.
Here’s another source for Arctic ice extent as of 4/21/24 fwiw: this one (cryospherecomputing.com) has been running a bit lower than NSIDC (NSIDC 3/31/24 was ~14.8 vs cryospere’s ~14.35). Now NSIDC is ~14.25 vs cryosphere’s ~14.1. Anyone know why the diff and whether or not one is more credible than the other? I generally have thought of NSIDC as the “go to” single best source.
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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:
Instead the -NAO are happening in April and May lol.
I didn't know how much fun watching sunspots could be. The trio of sunspots I photographed near the "top" of the sun have now moved to the middle of the sun. They moved this much in just a week or 10 days.
And even more so during summer (on average) since 2007. During these last 17 summers, 12 (71%) have averaged sub -0.25 NAO (my threshold for -NAO vs neutral) vs only 3 (18%) with a +0.25+ (+NAO), meaning a 4:1 ratio! Compare that to summers 1950-2006, which had a much more balanced 33% sub -0.25 NAO and 32% +0.25+ (~1:1 ratio).
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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
Figures, with how many I saw with just a camera and 300mm lens right in the camera's LCD!
It's why we had all those gorgeous pink storms around the sun's outer rim during the total solar eclipse too.
Is there a timeframe when to keep track of sunspot count prior to the winter-- like, fall, or summer?
Interesting thing about 2004, that was right in the middle of a series of snowy winters (2002-03 to 2004-05)
The sunspots will very likely still be active next winter…likely 100+ as they shouldn’t start dropping sharply for couple of years.
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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:
Interesting, Larry! Now that I'm doing solar photography, I'm very interested in sunspots! What is our current sunspot count? When I took pictures of them on Tuesday I could easily see at least a dozen of them!
Very high (>200 4/17-20!): 4 day avg of 220, second only to June of 2023 since 2004.
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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
It's always about the blocking here-- it's very rare to get 1995-96 or 2010-11 kind of blocking, when that happens it trumps everything else. But those are once in a generation kind of winters.
If you’re referring to -NAO winters, there have been only 6 since 1979-80, including the two you listed. All 6 were near solar minimums with avg daily sunspots under 35: other 4 1984-5, 1986-7, 2009-10, 2020-21. Every solar min since 1980 has had 1-2 -NAO winters. Coincidence?
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2024-2025 La Nina
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
The overall lower level of posting is likely because the prospects for warmth next winter in the E US appear higher to many than it looked a year ago for 2023-4. I’m still posting and will continue to because I enjoy forecast discussions regardless of what the prospects are for whatever. But I’m much less excited than last year for a shot at a non-warm winter (though winter is still my favorite season).
Snowman may post more later for all we know. However, there’s less incentive this year because he’d no longer be the near lone dissenting voice as folks like me would largely agree with him now. Last year he had raindance and sometimes Chuck but hardly anyone else as I recall. In other words, it is closer to an echo chamber so far this year. So, who would he preach good chance of a warm winter to if many of us are already believers? (That said, nothing in the wacky world of wx is ever close to being set in stone.)
In case you haven’t seen it yet you can go to the NYC region’s banter thread to see him, myself, donsutherland, bluewave, and others if you want to see some recent more active longterm forecast discussions. These discussions aren’t particularly aimed at the NYC region as they’re about the E US in general.