GaWx

Unlike the April forecast, which warmed considerably vs March, this May forecast is about the same as April's when comparing the same months. It appears warmer in the animation only because of progression out another month, but each month through October is ~same. This new one still has ASO near +1.8 and SON is ~+1.90-1.95 per eyeballing. For this and other reasons, especially the strong warm bias of the Euro (more details about this in next post), I'm keeping chances of super at low with better chance of high end moderate or strong.

The weather has been near ideal from my perspective this week to this point. Much of the last few weeks has been very nice. Today is another great day, but tomorrow will start the increase in dewpoints. It is highly probable that we won't see another extended period similar to this until very late Sept and more likely October. So, I've been taking in every bit of this bonus early springlike period.

I received 2.5-3" of rainfall over the last few days.

Yes, they got it, too. They got 0.7", which like for the other cities mentioned is the latest measurable on record (back to late 1800s). Their high was 45 and low was 33. That high is still the coldest that late in the season.

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-saturday-summary-13214956?full

I wouldn't bet against his using the strong 57-58 and 9-10 eventually, but we'll see. Meanwhile, in his continuing fight against recognizing the scientifically proven existence of significant GW from AGW, he did put this out tonight (see Tweet below). He keeps insisting that oceans have warmed from the bottom up via geothermal input rather than from the top down via AGW. He's saying that the atmosphere is warming due to the oceans rather than the reverse meaning he's saying GW is mainly from increased underwater geothermal input. One thing he's failing to recognize is that excess sulfur emissions were likely hiding GW during the 1960s-1970s. Also, if I'm not mistaken, CO2 didn't accelerate markedly until after 1970:

So, BoM has +2.5 for ASO. Though anything's possible, I feel that's way warmer than what will verify then and even probably for the peak. The record high ASO back to 1850 is only +2.2 and just about all other models so far haven't been as warm as this BoM. Plus there tends to be a warm bias overall at this time of year. This will be interesting to follow.

Asheville is another good one to analyze since they get so much more snow on average: - 32 of all 74 seasons (43%) since 1949-50 above their 12.7" mean - A whopping 16 of 26 El Niños (62%) above the 12.7" mean vs - Only 8 of 29 La Niña (28%) vs - 8 of 19 neutral (42%) So, going from La Niña to El Niño more than doubles the chance vs the prior winter for a snowy winter at Asheville. 15 seasons since 1949-50 had 20"+: - 7 of 26 El Niño (27%) - 5 of 19 neutral (26%) - 3 of 29 La Niña (10%) So, the chance for a very snowy winter at Asheville nearly triples from prior winter when going from La Niña to El Niño.

Indeed. Macon is another example. Six of the 26 El Niño seasons since 1950 had above the 1.0" mean. Whereas that's only 23% of them, only 13 of all 74 seasons or only 18% of all since 1949-50 have had above the mean. So, the 23% of El Niño seasons is actually higher than the 15% for other seasons (La Niña and neutral, combined). La Niña really brings it down with only 7%. So, going from La Niña to El Niño more than triples the chance at Macon for an above the mean snow for the season. Neutral is similar to El Niño as is the case for Atlanta.

For much of the SE US, most winters are below the mean. Example: Since 1950, only 1/3 of all seasons had above the mean snowfall at Atlanta. In El Niño seasons, 44% had above the mean snowfall. Whereas that is below 50%, it being well above 33% means El Niños are actually somewhat relatively snowy. Neutral are similar. But La Ninas are much less snowy with only ~20% of Atlanta winters above the mean. Example: This map makes it look like El Niño is a hindrance to snow at Florence, but it isn't at all. So, this map is deceptive for the SE US.

Very little rain in this part of the area. The seabreeze held much of it back. I did hear some loud thunder. The hail just outside Savannah in Richmond Hill, GA, is some of the worst hail in the area in many years, if not decades: https://www.wsav.com/weather-news/hail-rains-down-in-portions-of-chatham-county/amp/ Holy hail! The Melbourne area got hit hard with large hail: https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2023/04/26/snow-way-hail-covers-i-95-in-florida Hail to this extent and size is very rare in both of these areas.

The Atlanta 1.5" April 25th snow and cold was truly amazing. However, the Atlanta based TWC actually got the year wrong. It was 1910 (same year as the noted Chicago snow), not 1920: https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2017/04/april-25-1910-snowfall-in-northern-georgia/#:~:text=From This Day in Weather,of the 30s in April. I've read the old Atlanta newspapers from then (on microfiche at public library) and they predicted for 4/25/1910 rain and warmer than the much colder than normal 4/24. Instead, 4/25 was even colder along with the snow. This snow still is much later in spring than any other measurable snow there on record. Chattanooga was in the same boat except they got 4"! Nashville got 1.5".

No, sorry I don't.

Indeed, the globe and its oceans are warmer overall.

Answer: the latest accumulating snowfall on record for much of the TN Valley and nearby. Nashville got 1.5" on 4/25/1910, which is their latest accumulating snow on record by 15 days (back to 1885)! Chattanooga got an amazing 4.1" that day, which is still their latest accumulating snow on record (back to 1879) by a whopping 17 days! Also, one has to go all of the way back to one full month prior to find as heavy a late season snowstorm (3/25/1971). Their high on 4/25/1910 was a mere 39!

To add to what you said, Atlanta had a high on 4/25/1910 of only 39. After March 26th (going back to 1879), they have had highs below 40 only three times: 39 on 4/3/1987, 36 on 4/5/1891, and 39 on 4/25/1910. So, the 4/25/1910 very cold high really stands out in the record books for how late it is. This accumulating snow so late in April could easily be a once in several hundred year event and could even be a once in a thousand year event. Edit: The old Atlanta newspapers that I read (on microfiche at the public library) and copied forecasted rain and warmer temperatures on April 25th, not snow and colder. April 24th was 18 BN (high of 56 and low of 38) and they thought that that was to be the coldest day of the cold snap. So, this was a big surprise even to the meteorologists!

Does anyone know what happened in your area exactly 113 years ago?

Does anyone here know what happened in Atlanta 113 years ago tomorrow (4/25)?

Today's weekly release (covers last week's mean) has the Nino 1+2 anomaly cooler but only barely. It is still a very impressive +2.5 vs +2.7 the prior two weeks. With only one more full April week left to be reported, this all but assures that this will be the warmest pre El Niño April in 1+2 on record back to 1870, assuming the table that shows the monthlies back to 1870 is going to be based on somewhat similar data. There's often a problem with different tables using different data. So, we'll see later. The more important Nino 3.4 rose from +0.1 to +0.3.

The Happy Hour Goofy is BN dominated in the SE throughout the run.

This afternoon is near ideal here! The temperatures are near normal (highs near 80) but with 30s dewpoints, beautiful blue skies, and a gentle breeze. I could take this all year round. This month has had quite a few similar days. Tomorrow looks similar but with more clouds.

Per two regular posters April is headed to ~58, warmest on record. NYC Mays have been colder than 58 six times since 1870 or once every 25 years. That implies ~4% chance. However, the last one was way back in 1967 during a colder climate. Also, each of those six sub 58 Mays followed a BN to NN April as the six preceding Aprils were 46.9-49.6. This all tells me that the true chance for next month being colder than 58 without knowing how May would start is probably <4%. With May progged to start off BN, I'd raise the chance back up some though probably not above 5% considering our warmer climate.

Not since at least 1870 at Central Park. The closest was 1945, when May was only 3.6 warmer followed by 2005, when May was only 3.8 warmer, and then followed by three that were only 4.6 warmer (2002, 1968, 1915).

Due to how extreme this event was, I feel this is quite possibly not just a 1 in 1,000 year event but also perhaps a once in several thousand year event as Erich Fischer suggests above. However, I also maintain for the reasons I already stated that there's no indication that AGW/CC had much, if anything, to do with the set of freak factors that lead to this. Keep in mind that this occurred over only a small area relatively speaking. Ft Lauderdale is 34 sq mi. I estimate that as much as 35 sq miles had 20+" of rain. And that's probably conservatively high. So, that's 35 sq miles out of 3.5 million sq miles in the entire US. So, there are 100,000 parcels of land the size of Ft Lauderdale in the US. Even though it is obviously a huge deal wherever it occurs, a 1 in several thousand year event occurring over 1/100000 of the US isn't hard to fathom. For that matter, the expectation is that on average several of these 1 in several thousand year events would occur somewhere in the US each year. Whereas I believe that events such as the extreme rains from Hurricane Harvey (covered a much larger area) for example, were made more probable due to AGW, I see no evidence of that for this event for the reasons I stated in my earlier post. But there are certain folks that do their best to blame AGW/CC for as many extreme events as possible even without ample evidence. Imho, that actually leads to more folks denying the existence of AGW.

An extremely dry airmass over N FL: Per KJAX: FAIR SKIES AND A NEAR RECORD DRY AIR MASS FOR MID-APRIL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER OUR AREA, WITH OUR MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE ONLY REGISTERING 0.24 INCHES OF PWAT (RECORD FOR 12Z ON APRIL 18 IS 0.20 INCHES). This along with other great radiational cooling parameters allowed lows for a number of major stations to get all of the way down into the low 40s, including Hogtown and Jacksonville at 42. All of the way down in north-central FL at Brooksville it was down to 43. That's only 50 miles NNE of Tampa. Currently the dewpoint is a mere 28 at Ocala with only 17% RH!