GaWx

I'm redoing my W Caribbean/GOM TC formations 6/11-30 for El Niño years based on ASO Nino 3.4 SSTa having to be +0.5+ as per @ncforecaster89recommendation: 1852: 0.5 none 1855: 0.5 none 1864: 0.6 none 1877: 2.2 none 1884: 0.6 none 1885: 0.8 none 1888: 1.3 one 1896: 1.2 none 1899: 0.8 one 1900: 0.5 none 1902: 1.6 two 1904: 0.6 one 1905: 1.4 none 1914: 0.8 none 1918: 0.8 none 1923: 0.7 one 1925: 0.7 none 1930: 1.1 none 1940: 0.8 none 1941: 0.9 none 1951: 1.0 none 1953: 0.8 none 1957: 1.3 one 1963: 1.2 none 1965: 1.9 one 1969: 0.8 none 1972: 1.6 one 1976: 0.6 none 1977: 0.6 none 1982: 1.6 one (STS) 1986: 0.7 one 1987: 1.6 none 1991: 0.6 none 1994: 0.6 one 1997: 2.1 none 2002: 1.0 none 2004: 0.7 none 2006: 0.5 one 2009: 0.7 none 2015: 2.2 one 2018: 0.5 none Doing it this way gives only 14 formations for 41 El Niño years for a 34% ratio. That leaves 40 formations for the 131 non-El Nino years for a 31% ratio. So, 34% for El Niño vs 31% for others is essentially a wash. But this still shows that El Niño years aren't less prone than non-El Nino years to formations during mid to late June as is the case later in the season. ------------- Edit: Further breakdown: -Only 6 formations out of 27 years (22% ratio) with ASO of +0.5 to +1.0 -2 formations out of 6 years (33% ratio) with ASO of +1.1 to +1.5. But small sample size. -Interestingly, 6 formations out of 8 years (75% ratio) with ASO of +1.6+! This is consistent with ncforecaster89's stats showing more June US landfalls with stronger El Niño events. But sample size is pretty small.

Yeah, I was counting as "El Niño years" those years for which there was El Niño by that autumn without necessarily requiring El Niño by ASO. Is your way better? Perhaps. So, I'll redo my analysis requiring El Niño in ASO if I get time.

Regarding recorded 6/11-30 W Car/Gulf TC/STC geneses since 1851, 43% (23) of the 54 storms formed during the 53 El Nino years. That's notable considering that only 31% of the 172 seasons (53 of them) since 1851 were associated with El Niño. Here are the 23 mid to late June recorded TC/STC geneses during El Nino years in either the W Caribbean or Gulf: 1865, 1880, 1887, 1888*, 1899, 1902 (2), 1904, 1913, 1923, 1929, 1939, 1957, 1958, 1965*, 1968 (2), 1972*, 1982*, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2015* * notes super El Niño years. A whopping 5 of the 7 (71%) super El Niño years had one of these storms! I'm mentioning this because there's a chance that 2023 will reach super status. This leaves 31 storms that formed during the same period in the same region during 119 non-El Nino seasons or only 26% of them. In summary, there were 23 mid to late June W Car/Gulf storms during 53 El Nino seasons for a ratio of 43%. This compares to 31 from 119 non-El Nino seasons or a ratio of only 26%. That tells me that whereas we still should take the 12 GFS runs in a row with a W Car/Gulf TCG in week 2 with a grain based on its bias toward that, we should also keep in mind that this year being El Niño means it has a significantly higher chance of occurring vs if it weren't El Niño.

CPC officially declares El Niño: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

We're now up to 12 GFS runs in a row with a strong W Caribbean and/or Gulf TC forming in week 2. Also, though still mainly quiet, the last 4 EPS runs have shown a subtle increase in activity in the W Caribbean near June 20th. Whereas the GFS has had a good number of cases in which it has fakes in the W basin even after a lot longer than 12 runs and thus it should continue to be taken with a grain of salt for now, El Niño climo actually does suggest a significantly higher chance for TC genesis in the W Caribbean and Gulf vs non-Nino years in mid to late June. I plan to post more on this El Niño climo soon.

Not only did it not budge, it actually increased by 0.2 for the later months! The problem I have is that the Euro is ~0.7 cooler and the May Euro (similar to June run) hasn't actually verified too cool in autumn since way back in 2004! So, either BoM is going to verify way too warm or else the May Euro is going to verify too cold for the first time in 19 years! Despite the lack of a net bias over the last 10 years, BoM did verify too warm by 0.6 last year and two other times since 2014.

The 12Z GFS has a Gulf H coming up from the W Caribbean in week 2. This could very easily be a fake based on the last 5+ years of history of the GFS, but nobody can possibly have any idea this far out. I count 9 GFS runs in a row with a strong W Caribbean and/or Gulf TC for around that time. Then again, I've counted 20-25+ GFS runs in a row a few times over the last 5+ years in the W basin that ended up being a fake. Also, the EPS has had nothing the last few runs.

The consensus of the latest EPS and GEFS runs for the implied SOI is for 6/8-12 to average ~+13 to +17 and for 6/18-22 to average ~-13 to -23. So, starting off with perhaps the highest 5 day average since early April, but then falling and reaching another solid -SOI period in the 11-15 day period.

Similarly, Nino 3 could be only the 4th June since 1950 per ERSST with +1.3+. This includes 1983, which was +1.52 due to the leftover warmth from the 1982-3 Nino.

OSTIA and Coral Reef Watch SSTa are both +1.1+ while OISST v2.1 and CDAS are ~+0.9 as of 0Z on June 7th. So, there's 0.2+ difference. Edit for midday June 7th OISST update: it actually just rose to +1.028 per the midday update. So, OSTIA and Coral Reef are ~+1.1 while OISST is a bit over +1.0 and CDAS is ~+0.9.

The June 6th rapidly warming NOAA Coral Reef Watch based SSTa for Nino 3.4 is way up at +1.057 and is much warmer than the also rapidly warming CDAS, which has been in the +0.80-+0.85 range today through 12Z (see comparison of graphs below). Looking back to March 14th, I can't find even one day for which CDAS was warmer than Coral Reef. There are a few days that are ~same. Otherwise, Coral Reef is mainly 0.05 to 0.25 warmer than CDAS with the current ~0.20-0.25 difference being near the maximum since March 14th. Coral Reef Watch SSTa: CDAS based: A discussion of various SSTa datasets: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/CDPW/46/sessions/presentations/session6_oral4.pdf

24 hour Nino 3.4 SSTa changes per Levi Cowan's CDAS graphs 6Z to 6Z: 5/29 to 5/30: +0.039 5/30 to 5/31: +0.023 5/31 to 6/1: +0.049 6/1 to 6/2: +0.009 6/2 to 6/3: +0.023 6/3 to 6/4: +0.036 6/4 to 6/5: +0.033 6/5 to 6/6: +0.084

Wow, the CDAS Nino 3.4 is zooming. It is up a whopping 0.037 over just the last 12 hours to +0.779! It has warmed 0.45 within the last 10 days. This implies that the average of the OISST and ERSST is probably currently up to near +0.9. If this keeps up, those two could be up near +1.0 within 2 days. I'm now starting to wonder if the BoM 3.4 is going to somehow get its +1.2 for June after all. Still not expecting it but I'm no longer dismissing it as extremely unlikely. Meanwhile, the SOI has finally risen almost to 0 just after a week that averaged -18. The 30 day has dropped to -20 and the 90 day has fallen to -7.5, indicative of El Niño.

I just took a walk with it near 70 and dewpoints in the mid 50s. It was similar last evening. It was very comfy for both walks. That's unusual for June down here.

But it (25) has so far been strongly over-performing per this and peak is likely still a ways out. Regardless, I no longer feel that there's much of a chance that individual solar cycle variations have much influence on our climate.

We'll see if it does. I'm educatedly guessing based on model biases and the very warm MC that it will. The GEFS/EPS do have a moderate move through 4/5. Some of the others don't even get it there outside of the circle as of now. Newly developing Nino events in 1986 (June), 1997 (May), 2002 (May and again in June), and 2004 (May) all had moderate or stronger moves through both phases 4 and 5 during May and/or June. Looking later: 1976 (Aug/Sep), 1979 (Sep/Oct), 2002 (Aug), and 2009 (Sep) had similar. That means that 7 of the 13 new El Niño events during the period covered by MJO historical data had a moderate or strong move through both 4 and 5 at some point(s) between May and Oct. So, there'd be nothing unusual if 2023 were to have a moderate or strong move through both 4 and 5 this month. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

I also think that a high end strong in autumn is increasing in probability vs how it looked a couple of weeks ago, when I thought it was decreasing. With the Euro's 6/1/23 run holding onto a similar SON to the prior run's +1.94 instead of cooling off, that supports an increased chance in my mind. But keep in mind that it remains well below the +2.7 of the BoM's SON, which I continue to feel is too high.

Per this morning's CPC weekly release, all four Nino regions' anomalies warmed 0.2-0.4 in the OISST based weeklies covering last week's significant warming centered on May 31st (keep in mind these are based on the prior calendar week and are rounded to the nearest 0.1): Nino 1+2: warmed 0.3 to +2.3 Nino 3: warmed 0.3 to +1.1 Nino 3.4: warmed 0.4 to +0.8 Nino 4: warmed 0.2 to +0.6 In Nino 3.4 for the average for the same period (last calendar week) in comparison, CDAS per Cowan's graph of dailies was only +0.57. As just mentioned, OISST for last week was +0.8, implying between +0.75 and +0.85 since it was rounded. So, OISST was at least 0.18 warmer than CDAS last week. It had averaged warmer by 0.13 for Mar-May overall per my earlier post. The 0Z 6/5/23 CDAS is still rising steadily and is up to +0.73. That means that the current OISST could be +0.9 and that the CFS' +1.0 for June is quite believable. The new BoM's +1.2 will still be tough to reach but we will see. OISST based weeklies: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for CDAS for Nino 3.4 per Tropical Tidbits:

Due to a combination of several days of NE winds and the full moon, CHS had major and lower SC to GA had moderate coastal saltwater flooding Sun evening. This lead to US Highway 80 to Tybee being flooded and the 10th highest tide on record back to 1935 at Ft. Pulaski with 10.2'! I saw marsh grass that normally sticks out above the water even at high tide completely under water Sun evening!

The brand new BoM (6/3/23 run) has just been released and was initialized well with May. June cooled slightly from +1.3 in the prior run to +1.2. I feel that this is still too warm. Despite June's slight cooling, July remained at +1.7 and August-November all warmed 0.2 to +2.4, +2.6, +2.7, and +2.9, respectively! ASO surprisingly warmed from +2.4 to +2.6, which would be the warmest on record for ASO beating the +2.2 set both in 2015 and 1877! SON at +2.7 would also be a new record. Although the May BoM has had no net bias in predicting ASO the last 10 years averaged out, 3 of those 10 did miss 0.6 too warm (2022, 2017, and 2014). I continue to see little chance of it getting even close to being as warm as it has. The May Euro is only at +1.94 for SON vs the BoM's +2.7 and the May Euro hasn't been too cold for ASO since way back in 2004! http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/index.shtml#tabs=Graphs&region=NINO34

That sub -1 area is centered in the middle of the monthly 100-180 W OHC that I track down to 300 meters. Despite that, the May OHC anomaly was still up at +1.08. That shows how warm the rest of that layer is.

1. Looking at the CFSv2 ensemble mean, it has April and May pretty close to the average of OISSTv2.1 and ERSSTv5. So, it is initialized pretty well and did well with May. 2. It has June close to +1.0. With June CDAS starting off near +0.7, this would require CDAS to reach ~+1.0 at midmonth and end at ~+1.3 per a smooth slope assumption to get +1.0 for the month. But keep in mind that CDAS has averaged ~0.1 cooler than OISST/ERSST per the analysis I just did. So, OISST/ERSST could already be up to ~+0.8. If so, the +1.0 for the June CFS would seem reachable (start at +0.8 and end at +1.2) unlike the +1.3 of the last BoM release (May 20th). 3. The CFS has July at +1.5. If July were to start at +1.2, it would probably have to end at ~+1.7 to +1.8. That would be a challenge but that's a good ways out. So, we'll see. 4. It has August at +1.75. If July gets to +1.5, that would be very doable. 5. It has ASO +1.95-2.00. That's much more reasonable than that last BoM's +2.5 but still more than likely too high imho.

It is a coincidence but the 1899 #s just happen to match my Atlantic tropical forecast for 2023.

1. I've been wondering and asking here how CDAS is calculated. Do you know that and also what CDAS stands for? Anyone know? 2. Whereas Cowan's charts are CDAS based, I want to make sure that those viewing this thread realize that the maps bluewave posted along with the official ENSO ONI updates are both based on ERSSTv5 and that the CPC weeklies issued on Mondays are based on OISSTv2.1. 3. I just did some comparisons of last 3 months for the 3 datasets in 3.4: a) Per Cowan CDAS daily graphs: - Mar -0.22 - Apr +0.06 - May +0.39 b) Per ERSSTv5 graphs used for ONI: - Mar -0.10 - Apr +0.15 - May +0.40 c) Per OISSTv2.1 based weekly #s: - Mar -0.04 - Apr +0.20 - May 1-27: +0.45 (CDAS May 1-27: +0.37) The above shows that Cowan's CDAS graphs have been the coolest for March-May with them averaging 0.07 cooler per month vs what's used for ONI and 0.13 cooler per month vs what's used for the weeklies issued on Mondays. So, based on Mar-May, the other datasets for early June are more likely running about the same to slightly warmer than CDAS rather than slightly cooler than CDAS. Based on this I'm educatedly guessing that the OISSTv2.1 based Nino 3.4 weekly to be released tomorrow, which will cover the average for May 28th-June 3rd, will be either +0.6 or +0.7. This compares to the prior weekly of +0.4.

Per Levi Cowan's Nino 3.4 CDAS based table, it has (as Leon just Tweeted) warmed to +0.7, which is a warming of 0.37 over just the last 9 days. Although the record fastest warming over the last 40 years during an incoming El Niño is ~twice that much, this is still a significant rise for just a 9 day period and it is still rising pretty steadily. Region 4 has also been warming pretty rapidly over the last three days (+0.05/day) and it has warmed 0.4 over just the last 9 days. Meanwhile, Nino 3 has stalled the last 3 days after warming 0.3 the prior 6 days. With Nino 3 stalled but already up at +0.975 and Nino 4 now up at +0.65 and still warming steadily, it would appear there's room for Nino 3.4 to warm from its current +0.7 up to +0.8 within a few days. Based on all of the above and although the ONI is based on a different SSTa dataset, there's a good chance as of now that MJJ will reach at least +0.6 with +0.7 not at all out of reach and even +0.8 reasonably possible. MAM came in at +0.1. For comparison back to 1950, the largest warming from MAM to MJJ has been 0.9, which occurred in 1997. Also, the warmest MJJ for an incoming El Niño was the +1.2 of 1997 with 1957's +1.1 next.