GaWx

Strongest is highly likely too strong imo based on the clear tendency of these insanely strong hurricane model runs to often be 30-40 mb too strong. Of course even if 40 too strong, it would still be a very dangerous 930-940 cat 4+. Example: many runs for Helene were 900-910 and it verified a still very strong but more reasonable ~938.

12Z Euro: back N to Tampa from Sarasota 6Z/0Z and with it stronger than those runs. Landfall is near 8PM Wed.

Thanks. It is weird that Pivotal and WxBell for whatever reason tend to have much higher SLPs for GEFS and perhaps other ensemble members in general vs TT. I wonder why. I wouldn’t think that TT, itself, can run them at higher resolution. TT has most 12Z GEFS members in the 950s-970s vsPivotal’s/WxBell’s 980s to 990s. I guess the programming algos are different.

12Z GEFS tells me these things: - Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa - Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational - GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?

1. Yeah, CMC hasn’t been good. It along with the GFS was the worst for Ian with panhandle tracks only a couple of days before landfall! I feel that the CMC is the worst of the 5 most followed globals (even the JMA MAY be better overall) but still worthy of mention mainly for trend if for nothing else. 2. Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET is out: I use mainly for track not intensity though it continues to trend stronger as it catches up like usual. It initialized its position well and landfalls further N than the 0Z’s Naples with it near or possibly slightly N of Ft. Myers per my estimate based on the text (see below). I’ll have to see the 6 hour maps later when they’re released to better pinpoint its landfall point but it’s clearly further N though still S of the ICON/GFS: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.10.2024 TROPICAL STORM MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 95.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.10.2024 0 22.5N 95.0W 1003 30 0000UTC 07.10.2024 12 22.0N 93.2W 1000 32 1200UTC 07.10.2024 24 21.6N 91.6W 997 37 0000UTC 08.10.2024 36 22.1N 89.3W 993 40 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 23.0N 87.2W 989 41 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 24.2N 85.1W 987 42 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 26.2N 82.7W 987 48 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 28.2N 80.1W 990 49 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 29.4N 76.9W 987 71 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 30.9N 70.9W 992 53 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 30.6N 65.4W 1000 54 0000UTC 12.10.2024 132 30.6N 59.8W 1007 36 1200UTC 12.10.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

Meanwhile, 12z CMC shifted slightly S to between Ft Myers and Naples vs its 0Z’s Ft Myers and yesterday’s 12Z’s Port Charlotte.

Thanks. Yeah, I on a closer look just had noticed it landfalls a little SE of Cedar Key as opposed to right at CK. Thus I revised that post. But it is a significant shift N, regardless. Yes, this would be a very bad track for TB.

Indeed. Landfalls way up only a little SE of Cedar Key! Significantly N of last 2 GFS runs.

Icon, Euro, UK, and other globals are much better for track than intensity although following their TREND for intensity is quite worthwhile. Hurricane models are generally better for absolute intensity although they tend to be too strong as was the case for Helene. They’re often 20-40 mb too strong.

Thanks. And Icon was 2nd best with Ian with much further SE progs than GFS/CMC and further SE than Euro. UKMET was best with Ian with its almost perfect much further SE progs. So, I’ll be following upcoming runs of UK and Icon very closely needless to say. *Corrected

Interestingly, the 12Z Icon is a bit further N and about the furthest N of any Icon yet with it close to Sarasota vs recent runs near Port Charlotte.

From new NHC discussion: slight S track adjustment, which makes sense because recon found Milton a half of a degree further S than the 5AM EDT track (22.5 vs 23.0). The new (11AM) track center point is now a little S of Tampa vs right at Tampa on the 5AM track: The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or 105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula. As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

The week 9/30-10/6 in 2024 is going to end up with ACE that is 2nd highest for that week going back to 1951! It was essentially twice the mean for the climo most active week of a month earlier!The only higher ACE for that week was in 2016, thanks almost entirely to Matthew, which was a MH (cat 3-5) during all 7 days.

0Z Euro: Sarasota, which is ~40 miles S of 12Z’s just N of Tampa; So, of most watched globals, all but GFS are S of Tampa. 0Z Summary from N to S: GFS: just N of Tampa Euro: Sarasota Icon: Port Charlotte CMC: Ft. Myers UKMET: Naples

0Z CMC: still slower than others but sped up some to Thu night instead of Fri; back S some to Ft Myers from Port Charlotte at 12Z So, at 0Z, 3 of 5 (UK/Icon/CMC) most followed globals are significantly S of NHC

0Z UKMET (use for track only): sticking with its far S track (keeps reminding me of its furthest S progs for Ian) with landfall still near or a little N of Naples; it did initialize at 0Z ~20 miles S of actual position fwiw: TROPICAL STORM MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 95.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 06.10.2024 0 22.5N 95.6W 1007 25 1200UTC 06.10.2024 12 22.8N 94.0W 1005 26 0000UTC 07.10.2024 24 22.2N 92.9W 1003 29 1200UTC 07.10.2024 36 22.2N 91.1W 1001 32 0000UTC 08.10.2024 48 22.5N 89.1W 998 30 1200UTC 08.10.2024 60 23.7N 86.7W 994 33 0000UTC 09.10.2024 72 24.7N 84.8W 993 38 1200UTC 09.10.2024 84 25.7N 82.3W 996 38 0000UTC 10.10.2024 96 28.8N 78.5W 994 48 1200UTC 10.10.2024 108 31.1N 73.9W 997 54 0000UTC 11.10.2024 120 33.5N 65.4W 996 48 1200UTC 11.10.2024 132 39.5N 54.4W 987 45 0000UTC 12.10.2024 144 47.6N 45.6W 972 46 1200UTC 12.10.2024 156 POST-TROPICAL

0Z Icon: 3rd run in a row (back to 12Z) Port Charlotte, which is nearly 100 miles S of NHC.

Now progging 120 peak! Also, a little slower: Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Milton appears to be slowly organizing. The storm has a central dense overcast pattern with deep convection persisting near and to the south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 50 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt. Milton is a small storm at the moment, with its estimated tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 30 n mi from the center. The storm is moving slowly northeastward at 4 kt as it remains embedded in weak steering currents. However, a shortwave trough is expected to push southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause Milton to turn eastward on Sunday, and move progressively faster to the east and then northeast across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during the next 3 to 4 days. The guidance is in fair agreement, but there is some spread in both direction and timing. Overall, the models have trended slower this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. This prediction is near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the typically best-performing consensus aids. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track. Milton will likely steadily strengthen during the next few days as it moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, remains in a moist air mass, and in a diffluent and low to moderate wind shear environment. The big question is how quickly and by how much will the storm intensify. There is a big spread in the intensity models, with the hurricane regional models notably above the global and statistical-dynamical models. The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN aids. It is hoped that the models will come into better agreement tomorrow after ingesting some of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of next week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as early as late Sunday for portions of Florida. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETINTropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1420241000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY......RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THEFLORIDA WEST COAST...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...22.9N 95.1WABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICOABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

I’m leaning to S of Tampa at this time due to the ICON doing well overall this year as well as due to the UKMET and ICON, the two best with Ian, being S of Tampa. Icon hasn’t had even a single run near Tampa or north going back a number of days. Same with UKMET though it has had Milton on only a couple of runs. If those two models trend to near or N of Tampa, I’ll then change my leaning to Tampa north.

18Z Icon: barely N of 12Z with it just N of Pt Charlotte Wed night (a bit later)

Summary of 5 at 12Z: all Wed except CMC FriGFS/Euro just N of TampaIcon/CMC Pt CharlotteUK between Ft Myers and Naples

12Z Euro: a bit stronger (970s) and furthest N of all Euro runs so far with it just N of Tampa Wed evening (near GFS)(a bit slower than 0Z’s Pt Charlotte)

N

12Z UK: between Naples and Ft Myers Wed (similar timing to GFS/Icon and much faster than CMC), which is N of 0Z’s S of Naples but is still way S of GFS’ just N of Tampa and a little S of Icon/CMC Pt Charlotte; remains furthest S of these 4; reminder: UK was furthest SE for Ian several days out and did best fwiw: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 95.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.10.2024 0 21.9N 95.2W 1008 25 0000UTC 06.10.2024 12 22.7N 94.5W 1007 24 1200UTC 06.10.2024 24 23.3N 94.5W 1006 26 0000UTC 07.10.2024 36 22.8N 93.1W 1004 30 1200UTC 07.10.2024 48 21.9N 91.9W 1001 32 0000UTC 08.10.2024 60 22.3N 89.7W 998 30 1200UTC 08.10.2024 72 23.1N 87.4W 995 34 0000UTC 09.10.2024 84 24.5N 85.5W 993 38 1200UTC 09.10.2024 96 25.9N 82.8W 993 38 0000UTC 10.10.2024 108 27.9N 79.6W 994 52 1200UTC 10.10.2024 120 29.2N 75.9W 991 61 0000UTC 11.10.2024 132 29.5N 70.4W 995 50 1200UTC 11.10.2024 144 30.0N 64.5W 1003 43 0000UTC 12.10.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING