GaWx

Don, Check the 0Z 7/23 WB CFS run below. It has the same pattern of extreme cold anomaly over S Lake Michigan (-8C/-14.4F) much warmer (normal) over N Lake Michigan, and back to very cold in S Canada (-4C/-7.2F):

Hope it’s like 2010 trackwise but the prospects for that aren’t good. Plus we’ve already had a bad hit from Beryl. Besides danger to lives the last thing U.S. needs is huge amount of damage leading to insurers no longer being able to take risk of providing coverage. Could lead to a catastrophe with lack of insurance coverage. Destruction from Ian in 2022 was a sad/terrible thing to see.

Wow, almost opposite of now! Now has strong cold below top warm layer. June of 1954 had strong warmth below cold layer.

Thanks for posting this. He keeps posting specific next to impossible extreme cold Weather Bell CFS runs. Note that I said WeatherBell CFS runs rather than just CFS runs. The WB generated CFS maps are being run on seriously flawed algorithms. For one thing many have been showing SST anomalies consistent with a +PDO, including a 4000 mile long by 1000 mile wide of solid BN SSTa stretching from just E of Japan to just N of Hawaii! Other companies’ CFS runs always have the near opposite (strong -PDO)! Notice on this 2m temp map what keeps showing up on about all of these very cold runs: whereas S Lake Michigan is near the coldest in the US the same runs practically ALWAYS have a small area of near normal in N Lake Michigan or just 250 miles to the NNE! And then they often go back to extreme cold just to the N in S Canada! They’re severely flawed.

Today’s SOI is at +2. The models suggest that the SOI will peak in the +15 to +20 range on Fri (7/26). However, it then looks to fall back considerably as a strong low passes S of Tahiti early next week with a progged drop to ~-20 7/29-30. This all translates to July SOI as a whole coming in ~-3 to -4. That will continue the string of neutral months since Mar. There has yet to be a Ninaish SOI (say +5+). We’ll see whether or not August is the first one. The prior transitions from Nino to Niña were similarly slow in 2016, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1983, 1970, and 1954. All of those peaked only weak or low end moderate La Niña on an ONI basis except the strong of 2007. But the transitions in 2010, 1998, 1988, 1973, and 1964 already had solidly +SOI by May or June. Of those faster transitions, all ended up with a strong ONI based La Nina peak except the weak peak of 1964. So what this all tells me is that due to them tending to be a leading indicator, recent months of SOIs are favoring a weak to low end moderate Niña peak later this year at most vs high end moderate to strong (ONI basis): https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Thanks. I need to clarify something. The outside unit’s fan is working fine (on continuously), but I listened more closely since my prior post. The compressor, itself, is actually staying on for only 15-20 seconds at a time and then it shuts off for 1.5 minutes. That cycle keeps repeating. When compressor is on, I feel hot air blowing. When off, the air blowing out is not hot. Also, neither pipe connected to it feels cold. Edit: I googled central AC compressor turns on and off and found this great YouTube video: it suggests it could be the “filter drier”, which I had never heard of before:

What a time for the A.C. (only ~11.5 years old) to suddenly stop working. Dewpoints here are in the high 70s. It had never given me any problems whatsoever up through earlier today. The inside unit’s blower is moving air but the air coming out through the vents isn’t cool. The outdoor unit is also running. There’s no icing evident. The filter had been replaced just 3 weeks ago and is hardly dirty. The brand is Trane.

That winter had only a moderate -PDO, the weakest -PDO since 2019-20. Also, it was during a quiet solar flux/sunspot period. In addition, it was easily the most -NAO winter since 2010-1.

I measured 1.75” over ~1.5 hours (~4:45-6:15 PM) (~5” last 4 days) (~~8” this month) though Doppler radar estimates are 2-4” over much of the area 3-6:15 PM today, which started in downtown. That lead to a flash flood warning. The flooding was made worse due to heavy rains just 2-3 days ago. Even though I got a little more on Saturday (~2”), today’s 1.75” lead to more standing water in the yard. It has finally decreased to light rain. This heavy rain was over a not very wide portion of the county from downtown SW to Georgetown. The heavy band was inland but parallel to the coastline. The beach/islands and the well inland airport got much less to almost nothing.

It’s a repeat of Saturday evening here (which gave me just over 2”) including nearby CTG lightning:FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 445 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2024 GAC051-222245- /O.NEW.KCHS.FA.Y.0048.240722T2045Z-240722T2245Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHATHAM GA- 445 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2024 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM. * WHEN...UNTIL 645 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 444 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN BETWEEN DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AND CHATHAM CITY. - ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. ———————— Just like on Saturday evening:PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 517 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2024 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0510 PM FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W 07/22/2024 CHATHAM GA 911 CALL CENTER EMERGENCY RESPONDERS AND TRAFFIC MAPS ARE REPORTING SEVERAL FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL VEHICLES ARE FLOODED.

Thunderstorms popping up in the area along the seabreeze front. Thundering here now. This could be a doozy.

Warm top 100m layer is still hanging on: like a weak Niño (though neutral on relative basis) above solid La Niña:

The brand new BoM is the same as the prior run, with a weak dip to -0.2 for SON: Although it was absolutely awful last year by being way too warm, I have to give credit when credit is due as this model has been spot on with a June/July pause in cooling since way back in late March: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/archive/20240330//plumes/sstOutlooks.nino34.hr.png

The ENSO weeklies are still about where they were two months ago for all regions with Nino 3.4 still at +0.2. It literally looks like a very weak Modoki El Niño although that’s not taking into account where they are relative to very warm global tropical SSTs (need to subtract ~~0.6): 17JUL2024 21.2-0.5 25.7-0.1 27.5 0.2 29.4 0.6

Month by month NAO 1950+: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Only 6 of last 45 (13%) winters have had a -NAO when averaged out over DJF (sub -0.25): 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1. Coincidentally or not, they’ve all been when DJF averaged sunspots were under 35. But summer NAOs have done opposite since 2007 with -NAO dominating! *Typo corrected

Your map for Nino 3.4 is showing it averaging in cold neutral (ironically about where RONI is). In contrast, OISST is still +0.23 (consistent with CRW map I posted):

Is that CDAS based? That’s the only thing I can think of off the top of my head that MIGHT explain this. Looking at Nino 3.4, your map has it BN. But OISST/CRW dailies were still AN there with warm neutral at last check. Unless this is some kind of RONI deal??

Even with it using 1991-20 base, it looks too cold. The oceans are very warm dominated vs 1991-20 as they’re near record highs overall as you know. Your map shows a much more balanced look.

It depends on what you mean by “high NS”. I also think there will be a high # of NS with 21+ NS being doable as I picked 21 in the poll and feel good about that prediction. I consider 21 a very high #. But 28+ NS, which is near the record of 30 and has been predicted by some, is another story altogether imo with 21 NS the record high number for 8/11+. Let’s say we get #4 prior to 8/11. The record # of 21 8/11+ would mean 25.

Indeed, as a result, these maps continue to suggest a strong -PDO this winter regardless of what many WxBell CFS runs have shown. Note that I’m saying “WxBell CFS” runs as opposed to just saying “CFS” runs because Tropical Tidbits’ CFS runs have shown nothing of the sort and also show a strong -PDO. The WxBell CFS algorithms have issues.

Yes, it is a most wonderful time of year, “season cancel” season. “Season not too active” calls right now are not at all backed by recent history, especially with Atlantic SSTs at or near a record high. Even during last year’s record Atlantic warmth, July was quiet in the deep tropics. We’re now in a climatologically slow period. It is supposed to be quiet in mid July with SAL often dominating. I picked 21/10/5 in the contest and still feel good about that prediction, which would mean a very active to hyperactive season. But OTOH it is going to be quite the challenge for those predicting (near) record #s of NS (upper 20s+) to be close. The largest # of NS on record forming 8/11+ is 21, set in 2020 and 2005. But even if a ridiculous # of NS were not to occur, a bad season would unfortunately still be likely.

The rainfall here has really been adding up quickly. Related to this:PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0835 PM FLOOD 1 W SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.10W 07/20/2024 CHATHAM GA PUBLIC TRAFFIC MAPS REPORTED SEVERAL FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ——————— PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 913 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0912 PM FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W 07/20/2024 CHATHAM GA 911 CALL CENTER MULTIPLE VEHICLES STUCK IN FLOOD WATERS ON EAST VICTORY DRIVE. ————— PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 941 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0905 PM FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W 07/20/2024 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTS OF VEHICLES STALLED IN FLOOD WATERS NEAR THE 600 BLOCK OF EAST HENRY STREET. ADDITIONAL FLOODING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ATLANTIC AND E. 41 STREET, E. 56 STREET AND HABERSHAM STREET.———————————— *Edit: It finally slackened to mainly light rain, which is still continuing, at ~9PM and nearby lightning appears to done. Looks like I got 2”+.

Further to the above post (also the lightning including nearby CTG strikes just now has become frequent): FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 818 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024 GAC051-210215- /O.NEW.KCHS.FA.Y.0047.240721T0018Z-240721T0215Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHATHAM GA- 818 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2024 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM. * WHEN...UNTIL 1015 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 816 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. - ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH.

For 2nd evening in a row and over last hour, my area is getting good rainfall from a series of thunderstorms. Heavier rates of rain today though yesterday’s still gave me ~1” due to long duration of moderate.