GaWx

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Beryl continues to weaken due to the effects of westerly shear. Radar data from the Cayman Islands shows that the eyewall is open to the south and that there is very little precipitation occurring in the southwestern semicircle. This matches the asymmetric cloud pattern seen in satellite imagery. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters support surface winds of 90-100 kt, and that the central pressure has risen to near 971 mb. Based on this, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 100 kt. The initial wind radii have be modified downward based on the aircraft data. The initial motion is 285/16. There is little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next day or two, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula just before 24 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico just after 36 h. After that, Beryl should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the western Gulf coast near 96 h. While the guidance has come into better agreement, there is a spread in the guidance landfall points from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast, and users are reminded that the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles. Thus, it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new official forecast is similar to, but a touch slower than, the previous forecast and it lies close to the consensus models. Water vapor imagery continues to show a upper-level trough moving west-southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with westerly flow on the south side of this system helping to impart moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl. While the shear could decrease some during the next 24 h, it is unlikely to decrease enough to stop Beryl from steadily weakening until landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance. Beryl should weaken more after landfall. There is uncertainty in how much shear the cyclone may encounter over the Gulf of Mexico, but the guidance shows slow intensification during that time. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast that brings the system back to hurricane strength right at landfall on the western Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.0N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.5N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.1N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 22.0N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0000Z 23.0N 94.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.9N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 25.5N 97.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 28.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 82.6W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

Beryl has finally fallen below cat 4 as it is now a strong cat 3. It appears that SW Jamaica may have been the hardest hit of that island based on that tweet I just posted and the radar images showing the very strong N eyewall over that area. Get ready Caymans, especially Grand Cayman! Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 80.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

“From all the reports I have received we have taken a most devastating blow in St Elizabeth from Hurricane Beryl. Significant numbers of roofs being lost, houses destroyed, trees uprooted, light poles downed, almost all roads are impassable. Going to be an extremely long night.” https://x.com/floydgreenja/status/1808696512471245249

For the 3rd run of the last 5 and the 2nd in a row, the ICON has a major H hit on Galveston.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 The core of Beryl has now passed through Jamaica and is approaching the Cayman Islands. Satellite images indicate that the eye has become cloud filled, and reports from both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the eyewall is open on the southwest side. Despite the degraded structure, a blend of the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance data indicates that Beryl is still an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with an initial intensity of 115 kt. The crews on board also reported that there was significant turbulence in the northern eyewall. NOAA's P-3 Tail Doppler Radar data does suggest that there is some vertical tilt to the vortex, likely due to moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The center of Beryl is a little to the north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 295/16 kt. A ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to turn more westward during the next couple of days, taking the core of the major hurricane just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and across the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. The ridge is expected to weaken late Friday, which should cause Beryl to slow down and gain more latitude this weekend as it moves toward a trough over the south-central U.S. The models are tightly clustered through the Yucatan landfall, and given the pronounced steering currents through that time, the NHC track forecast is of high confidence. However, the spread in the models increase by the time Beryl nears eastern Mexico and southern Texas and accordingly, confidence in the details of the track forecast are low at long range. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the north of the previous one and very near the various consensus aids. Beryl is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly shear, and the models suggest that the shear will either hold steady or increase a little during the next couple of days. These less favorable winds aloft combined with some intrusions of dry air should cause weakening, but Beryl is still expected to be a powerful hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan. The interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan should cause rapid weakening, but gradual re-intensification is expected when Beryl moves over the western Gulf of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.0N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.5N 81.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 19.1N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 19.8N 87.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 20.7N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/1200Z 21.7N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0000Z 22.8N 94.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 24.6N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.7N 98.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

Well, the Energizer Bunny is still a cat 4 at 11PM! Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BERYL PULLING AWAY FROM JAMAICA... ...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.2W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

Well, Jebman, I agree it’s good to see any weakening, especially while still in the vicinity of Jamaica and with the Caymans not too far away. But unfortunately 130 is still very powerful. You’re right, it is the Energizer Bunny of hurricanes! Who would have thought that on July 3 we’d have a hurricane that “weakened” to 130 mph? It’s crazy!

I know it’s almost 10PM, but still wanted to get this in the thread: Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MOVING NEAR SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 78.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Further to the above for AMJ: -ONI +0.39 -RONI -0.22 -So, AMJ’s ONI-RONI=+0.61 -MAM’s ONI-RONI was +0.64 -FMA’s ONI-RONI was +0.66 (record high) -JFM’s ONI-RONI was +0.63

18Z ICON: back up to ~Galveston like the 0Z had vs 12Z’s ~75 miles SW of Galveston

From NHC at 5 PM: ...EYEWALL OF BERYL BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING... ...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 77.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Kingston, Jamaica, recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h).

The Kingston webcams show that rain and wind have increased substantially the last hour for quite the stormy afternoon. Keep in mind that Kingston is 75 miles NE of the center, nowhere near the core: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h0E93nmFO1A

Yes, it appears that way. Look for the worst from this storm to move in shortly and last for several hours.

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO JAMAICA AS THE EYE OF BERYL APPROACHES... ...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 76.9W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

I consider my area to have been fortunate rainfall-wise since the ~2.5” from the tropical low/Invest 92L of 6/21-3. There were pop ups around the area later in June but hardly any rainfall here from those. But then early July has been wet thanks to a stationary front/trough. I’ve received ~2” with ~1” of that just since noon today (just ended).

12Z CMC: very slightly further N than prior run but still 100 miles S of MX/TX border So for 12Z runs CMC, GFS, and UKMET landfalls pretty close in NE MX. ICON still further N but not as far N as prior runs with it ~75 miles S of Galveston. Euro will be out next hour.

12z UKMET: landfall shifted ~50 miles N of its 0z run to ~midway between Tampico and TX border HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 75.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.07.2024 0 17.0N 75.0W 960 101 0000UTC 04.07.2024 12 17.9N 78.8W 985 65 1200UTC 04.07.2024 24 18.2N 82.6W 996 46 0000UTC 05.07.2024 36 18.7N 85.6W 996 46 1200UTC 05.07.2024 48 19.4N 88.1W 998 38 0000UTC 06.07.2024 60 20.0N 91.2W 999 47 1200UTC 06.07.2024 72 21.1N 93.3W 1000 44 0000UTC 07.07.2024 84 22.2N 95.1W 998 39 1200UTC 07.07.2024 96 23.3N 96.6W 992 44 0000UTC 08.07.2024 108 24.1N 97.9W 993 46 1200UTC 08.07.2024 120 24.4N 99.3W 998 29 0000UTC 09.07.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING

12Z GFS: landfall shifts S to ~100 miles S of TX/MX border vs close to or N of border on prior runs

12Z ICON: Significant shift SW in W Gulf with landfall 75 miles SW of Galveston instead of upper TX or near LA border like on prior runs.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb. However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb. These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this the initial intensity is held at 125 kt. The initial motion is now 285/16. A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of Mexico. This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory. While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening. The official forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance envelope. Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable environment. The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast, followed by weakening after landfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.1N 76.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 18.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0000Z 20.5N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 21.5N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 25.5N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... ...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 76.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will pass near or over Jamaica during the next several hours. After that, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.

June QBO +1.95 (30 mb)

0Z Euro: back S similar to 12Z to just N of Tampico; similar to 0Z UKMET

0Z UKMET is similar to 12Z run. Final landfall little N of Tampico/slightly N of 12Z landfall: use for track, not the very underdone strength HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 71.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.07.2024 0 16.2N 71.6W 969 91 1200UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.6N 75.4W 980 73 0000UTC 04.07.2024 24 17.9N 78.6W 989 57 1200UTC 04.07.2024 36 18.2N 82.7W 995 47 0000UTC 05.07.2024 48 18.6N 86.0W 996 45 1200UTC 05.07.2024 60 19.3N 88.6W 1000 32 0000UTC 06.07.2024 72 20.0N 91.9W 1000 39 1200UTC 06.07.2024 84 20.8N 93.8W 1001 37 0000UTC 07.07.2024 96 21.7N 95.4W 1000 38 1200UTC 07.07.2024 108 22.8N 96.8W 996 41 0000UTC 08.07.2024 120 23.6N 98.3W 997 39 1200UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 100.7W 1006 26 0000UTC 09.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING