GaWx

Since 1851, that area between Pt Charlotte and Tampa has had plenty of hurricane activity from storms moving N just offshore causing significant storm surge (1935, Easy (1950), Alma (1966)), coming nearby from overland with gusts up to 120 (Donna, 1926), or landfalling below cat 3 (1944 hit right at Sarasota but as high end 2 (105). Then there’s 1921 that was a MH (120) that passed by just to the N at Tarpon Springs and gave Sarasota 105. But there’s technically no MH landfall I could find right there since at least 1851.

18Z Icon and GFS: St. Petersburg (a couple of miles N of 12Z runs)

The 12Z Euro ticked slightly S of the last few runs with a Bradenton to just S of Tampa track. The 0Z went right over Tampa. Every tick S helps Tampa Bay for surge and maybe winds somewhat but rainfall may be worse.

The LLC E of FL looks pretty robust today but I wonder if the NHC will downplay it as they’ve tended to do this season for weaker systems. They have only a 20% chance for TCG per the latest TWO. Opinions? @WxWatcher007@purduewx80

The 12Z UKMET gives Tampa 12.1” of rain!

0Z Euro: Tampa late Wed night

0Z UKMET appears to be a little S of Tampa and pretty similar to 12Z. Waiting on maps.

Each GFS run today has trended further S.

Total ACE in the Atlantic basin today was 9.3!

Milton has generated a whopping 6.8 ACE during the last 24 hours! Look for it to be even larger tomorrow.

Actually, I don’t have a lag theory. I read that the stability increase is supposedly instantaneous.

Thanks. Despite this, the SSN going way up to over 200 this month, and increased stability due to high solar supposedly without a lag, the Atlantic hurricane ACE will be at record high levels for the 2nd week of Oct.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 28.0N 76.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.10.2024 36 27.9N 76.2W 1003 31 1200UTC 09.10.2024 48 29.3N 71.7W 1004 29 0000UTC 10.10.2024 60 30.8N 67.0W 1005 29 1200UTC 10.10.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING

12Z main global runs: Icon: Tampa Wed night (a bit N of 6Z/0Z’s Sarasota) vs 6Z’s Wed night/0Z’s Wed afternoon CMC: Sarasota Thu AM (>24 hrs sooner than 0Z’s Fri AM)(N of 0Z’s Pt Charlotte) JMA: Sarasota Thu AM (similar location and later than yesterday’s 12Z’s Wed evening GFS: Port Richey (25 miles N of Tampa) Wed night (slightly S of 6Z’s Hudson and S of 0Z’s just N of Crystal River) UKMET: Bradenton, MUCH further N of 0Z’s Naples and stronger; late Wed evening (later than 0Z’s Wed afternoon) Euro: Tampa Wed night, near 6Z and just barely N of 0Z’s Bradenton; earlier than 6Z’s Thu morning but a little later than 0Z’s Wed evening *So, 12Z has much smaller range than 0Z from 25 miles N of Tampa (Port Richey) to 50 miles S of Tampa (Sarasota)..so only 75 miles vs 0Z’s range of 200 miles *From N to S 12Z: GFS, Icon/Euro, UKMET, CMC/JMA *Timing of 12Z: ranges from late Wed evening to Thu morning

0Z Icon: Sarasota (near 18Z/12Z runs) late afternoon Wed 0Z CMC: Pt Charlotte (a bit N of 12Z’s little S of Ft Myers) Fri morning 0Z GFS: just N of Crystal River (barely N of 18Z) very late Wed night 0Z UKMET: Naples (good bit S of 12Z’s Ft Myers) Wed afternoon Edit for Euro: 0Z Euro: Bradenton (barely S of 18Z/12Z’s Tampa) Wed evening Edit: N to S: GFS, Euro, Icon, CMC, UKMET -GFS remains quite a N outlier -UKMET is a pretty significant S outlier

All it really takes to cause massive outages and many trees and large branches to fall are mid to higher end TS winds. That’s what we had here in Savannah. There were a couple of gusts to minimal hurr strength, but the highest sustained were in the 50s though it admittedly seemed like a hurricane. That’s all it took to give us a big mess. Many don’t realize the power of TS winds.

The 18Z GFS landfalls near Crystal River (similar to 12Z) but isn’t til 11AM EDT on Thu! Those earlier CMC Fri landfalls aren’t looking quite as crazy as they were.

Fwiw here are the TC/STC tracks since 1851 for storms that formed 10/1-10:

After that further S track near Yucatan, 18Z Icon landfalls like the 12Z at Sarasota but it is delayed til very late Wed night.

Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection and possible developing LLC currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. (see IR image below). Is anyone else watching this? I’m watching this closely because it could have a non-trivial influence on Milton in some way(s). For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

Now I can see the 6 hour maps. Today’s 12Z JMA is actually close to a Tampa ENE to N of Cape Canaveral path vs being near a Ft. Myers E to Jupiter path yesterday. That’s ~100/150 miles N of yesterday’s run on W/E coast. Also, just about all prior runs were landfalling on SW FL.

Thanks. I’m curious about it for several reasons: 1. It could be yet another NS adding a little bit more ACE during this upcoming week, a week that’s projected to be the most active 10/7-13 since at least 1951 coming on the heels of the 2nd most active 9/30-10/6 ACEwise. 2. Because the entire atmosphere is interconnected and because this wouldn’t be too far away from Milton, it’s conceivable that it could have more than a trivial influence on Milton in some way(s).

Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

12Z JMA: N of earlier runs at ~Ft Myers to Pt Charlotte (waiting on 6 hour maps) vs between Naples and Ft. Myers on yesterday’s 12Z

-So, with Dec 3” or under (6 seasons), rest of season averaged 10.6” (range 2.3”-17.7”). Note, however, that 16-17 was only barely above 3” (at 3.2”) and the rest of the season had 27”. - For >3” in Dec (8 seasons), rest of season averaged almost 3 times as much, 30.1” (range 21.6”-64.1”)! - So, the high end of the Dec 3” or less rest of season range (17.7”) is actually lower than the low end of the rest of season range (21.6”) for Dec greater than 3” seasons! @donsutherland1