GaWx

0Z GFS no TC/just weak Gulf low 0Z CMC/ICON TS into FL panhandle 0Z Euro 1006 mb TD/TS into NC OB 0Z UKMET: TS just off FL E coast that then turns NNE: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 24.8N 77.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.08.2024 132 24.8N 77.9W 1009 42 0000UTC 04.08.2024 144 26.3N 79.5W 1005 47 1200UTC 04.08.2024 156 28.2N 80.2W 1006 33 0000UTC 05.08.2024 168 30.0N 79.6W 1006 34

Though not one of top 5 most followed globals, the JMA, which along with the ICON was best with Beryl's track in the W GOM, has a TC for the first time with it in the NW Bahamas moving NNW (TD at 1013 mb). Thus, counting this, that means 3 in GOM (ICON/GFS/CMC) and 3 in SW Atlantic (UKMET/Euro/JMA). So, this run has a TC for the first time on the JMA, UKMET, and ICON.

The PDO is falling back down along with it. It’s back down to -2.15 on WCS, which means the NOAA version is probably back to near -3 or below now.

How about this for a two day drop of Nino 3.4 anomaly per OISST…it plunged 0.3 C to -0.125C!

Thanks. But I’m still wondering despite them being from different sources why they’re not even close with one near +1C and the other several degrees below 0C!

Just like is the case for the 12Z ICON, the 12Z UKMET is the first run with a TC from the C MDR disturbance (may be due to it just coming in range since TCG isn’t til the end of the run). It is in the NW Bahamas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 25.0N 77.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.08.2024 168 25.0N 77.6W 1012 29 ———————- Edit: The 12Z GFS is the first GFS with a TC from this since yesterday’s 6Z (hits the FL panhandle). The 12Z CMC again has a TC from this in the E GOM that then hits the FL panhandle with a high end TS. 12Z before Euro: all 4 of the most followed globals have a TC from this with 3 of 4 in Gulf. UKMET is recurving in NW Bahamas. ——— Update: The 12Z Euro is much weaker than prior runs (maybe a TD at most/1007 mb) that goes up the E seaboard from NC. Despite the 12Z Euro being much weaker, the more reliable ensembles (12Z EPS) are still quite active and still are heavily favoring either near or offshore the US E coast with just a couple of members with a TC in the E GOM.

Why is this subsurface animation in top 75-100 meters (solid BN E of 140W) disagreeing so much with the subsurface animation you posted earlier (moderate AN E of 140W)?

The 12Z ICON is its first run with a TC from this. At 180 it has a 1005 mb low moving NW in the direction of the central US GOM coast.

The thing that continues to get my attention the most is the very stubborn moderate warm layer in the top 75-100 meters. It just won’t go away though it would have to (even though this is for only 2N to 2S) for this to end up La Niña per ONI. Actually, usually 2N to 2S has stronger anomalies than 5N to 5S in either El Niño or La Niña since the strongest anomalies in either tend to be nearest the equator.

6Z EPS 144 is as active, if not more active, vs the 0Z EPS 150 regarding the C MDR wave.

Regarding the NHC TWO disturbance in C MDR: 1. The Euro/EPS and CMC have had a TC on a good number of runs in a row with the CMC hitting the NE Gulf and the Euro having a couple of hundred miles offshore NC TC. But the GFS, ICON, and UKMET have mainly been quiet. 2. Just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (the 0Z with only 1 member (3%) having a TC) and despite the 6Z GFS being still another run without a TC from the central MDR wave, the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this is with a still very active EPAC.

Just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (the 0Z with only 1 member (3%) having a TC) and despite the 6Z GFS being still another run without a TC from the central MDR wave, the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this is with a still very active EPAC.

1. Whereas most models have EPAC activity, some with two TCs, the GFS has been about the strongest with these. Regardless, I don’t know that that’s wrong and don’t know whether or not that’s relevant to its lack of an Atlantic TC. 2. Whereas the 6Z GFS is still another without an Atlantic TC from the central MDR wave and just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (0Z GEFS had only 1 member (3%) with a TC), the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this more active GEFS is with still a very active EPAC.

For E Atlantic AEW, here are 0Z runs: -CMC high end TS FL panhandle late 8/5 -Euro forms into a TD just NE of Bahamas, becomes a cat 1 H, recurves 250 miles SE of NC OB, and approaches SE Newfoundland at 240. EPS not out yet -ICON, UK, GFS: no TC -GEFS: only one member with a TC (vs ~3 on 12Z/18Z) Edit: 0Z Euro ensemble: maybe not quite as active as prior 2 runs but still active and once again supports its operational with about all of the TCs hitting or nearby US E coast; good number of landfalls upper SC or NC with a few in the NE US

Chuck, Your maps make sense because the correlation of a +PNA to cold in the SE is stronger than it is in the NE and also stronger in the SE to that from -EPO. Per your maps: -the correlation to BN temps of a +PNA is 0.3-0.5 in the SE vs 0.0-0.25 in the NE. So, in SE, +PNA is more crucial to cold than -EPO with the combo typically being the coldest. -the correlation to BN temps of a -EPO is only 0.1-0.3 in the SE vs 0.3-0.4 in the NE. So, in the NE and especially New England, a -EPO is much more crucial to cold than +PNA. -the correlation to BN temps in the Midwest and Plains is 0.25-0.5 for -EPO vs a mainly negative correlation for +PNA. -of course it gets more complex when considering what combo of PNA and EPO exists

The 7/26 OISSTa drop of 0.17 is the largest since at least early May. RONI is likely now finally back into Niña

12Z EPS: active with almost all of its TCs near or off E coast vs GOM. So, supports Euro op, which has H just off NC.

0Z EPS back to being similar to the very active 0Z run of 24 hours ago, especially LA through FL through E seaboard.

Rain finally lightened up considerably ~40 minutes ago. The street out front flooded and even the sidewalks flooded on both sides as water went well over the curbs. I’m guessing that was ~3” rain within one hour. Keep in mind I had 5” during the 7 days before this giving me ~11.25” for July to date! I’ve had lots of storms this month but this complex of storms appears to have taken the cake. Besides the rain (along with decent winds near the start), the CTG lightning frequency was among the worst I can recall at least in several years. The radar detected 800+ strokes within 15 minutes over the area! Many vehicles got stuck in flooding.

Not in my immediate area but now there’s this (by the way I got 2”+ of rain within 30 minutes)! Now ~10.5” for month! Edit: 800+ lightning strokes detected in the area within 15 minutes!!THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 730 PM EDT. * AT 658 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WINDSOR FOREST, MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COFFEE BLUFF, WINDSOR FOREST, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, MONTGOMERY, VERNONBURG, WHITE BLUFF AND FORT MCALLISTER ——————- 709 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024 ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR BRYAN AND CHATHAM COUNTIES... AT 709 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WINDSOR FOREST, MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A WELL DEFINED FUNNEL CLOUD AND COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AT ANY TIME. Edit ———————0630 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NNW SAVANNAH 32.08N 81.10W 07/26/2024 CHATHAM GA PUBLIC AN INDIVIDUAL ON REPORTED A VIDEO ON SOCIAL MEDIA OF A FUNNEL CLOUD FROM ELECTRIC MOON SKYDECK AT THE JW MARRIOTT HOTEL. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

There’s a deluge here from a thunderstorm: edit: had some wind with this earlier but now the CTG is very close with numerous strokes, worst I’ve seen in a long time! Lost my Comcast connection. Power went out but came back.CHATHAM GA-JASPER SC- 638 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, JASPER. * WHEN...UNTIL 930 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WATER OVER ROADWAYS. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 636 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY, SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

12Z EPS: still has members with a TC (~10) but that’s only ~1/2 as many as 0Z had. About 8 of these 10 hit the CONUS from LA around to NC Aug 4-8.

The 12Z Euro has no closed surface low. It looks somewhat like the 12Z CMC with just a wave that reaches the W GOM at 240 hours. More importantly, let’s see how the 12Z EPS looks.

Getting heavy rain from a thunderstorm now. Due to a combo of potential heavy rain today with very heavy rains earlier this week and last weekend (5” IMBY), a flood watch was already in effect for today/tonight. It did lighten up pretty quickly, however. *Edit: ended up with only ~0.25” due to it lasting only a short time

It’s a “lovely” 84.9 here with plenty of humidity. By the way that’s inside my house, not outside. (My AC isn’t working). Actually, that’s better than the 87-88 of late yesterday. But the day is still young. Regardless, clouds and nearby storms are helping though the humidity is off the charts.