Jump to content

GaWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    18,682

  • Joined

About GaWx

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

Recent Profile Visitors

44,684 profile views
  1. GaWx
    Levi gives great updates. Here’s the 1st: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/2060836481128874201
  2. GaWx
    Based on the past after strong -SOI periods, 3.4 SSTs tend to start warming ~10-24 days after the start of these periods. The last 20 days have averaged way down at -18 (and it hasn’t yet shown it is ending soon). Thus I’m expecting 3.4 to resume good warming at almost anytime after the last 2 weeks of little change. Plus the models have strong warming resuming in June. Thus I expect 3.4 to be several 10ths warmer by a week from now.
  3. GaWx
    Check out the 40s DPs in RDU/GSO!
  4. GaWx
    Today’s CFS has a record high RONI starting in JAS and going through NDJ before dropping at a record quick pace to only 3rd highest in DJF. I’m talking about records for each respective 3 month period, not overall. On monthly basis, it has records Jul-Dec! But then Jan falls so fast that it is then 0.5 cooler than ‘83 and is only 6th warmest behind ‘83, ‘92, ‘98, ‘58, and ,’16. Feb also is 6th warmest with it a whopping 0.63 cooler than ‘92!
  5. GaWx
    Suzook had more rain this week than I’ve had in ‘26!
  6. GaWx
    4/13/26 CFS RONI peak +2 (OND): 5/30/26 CFS RONI peak just under +3! Record peak is +2.5: 5/30 CFS DJF +2.22. That wouldn’t be record for DJF as ‘83 +2.5 and ‘92 +2.3. So, it’s actually showing a record rapid cooldown OND to DJF of 0.75 vs current record of 0.62 (2002-3).
  7. GaWx
    Besides the MEI, I feel that the SOI (which may be part of the MEI…Is it?) remains a good measure of the phase and strength of ENSO because it is a calculation based on SLP differences between two points thousands of miles apart and thus doesn’t seem to be influenced by CC. In essence a relative SOI is likely not needed. Of course, because it is so volatile and subject to day to day randomness, it’s best looked at in 30+ day averages. Then again, if, say avg. Australian SLPs have been affected by CV differently from how Tahiti SLPs have been affected by CC, then even SOIs would need an adjustment. Other opinions?
  8. GaWx
    The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.
  9. GaWx
    Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June: 2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN 3rd week in June: wetter than normal:
  10. GaWx
    You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.
  11. GaWx
    The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.
  12. GaWx
    Also, keep in mind that a -1.40 WCS daily PDO is generally equivalent to a sub-2 NOAA daily PDO. This differential has been the case since I started following WCS daily PDOs years ago.
  13. GaWx
    Check out this 19 day sub -5 SOI streak along with today’s -33.46 being 2nd most negative (barely missing 1st) so far this year. Note that Darwin’s higher than avg SLP for May has the last 10 days finally joined Tahiti’s lows to contribute. Darwin SLPs look to remain on the high side at least over the next week or so per models: 2026 131 1012.47 1012.15 -9.25 2026 132 1011.99 1012.00 -11.78 2026 133 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47 2026 134 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 2026 135 1009.15 1010.00 -18.21 2026 136 1008.21 1009.70 -23.11 2026 137 1007.49 1009.55 -27.48 2026 138 1009.98 1009.25 -6.11 2026 139 1011.63 1010.85 -5.73 2026 140 1012.01 1012.45 -15.07 2026 141 1010.85 1013.05 -28.55 2026 142 1012.15 1013.20 -19.74 2026 143 1011.70 1012.55 -18.21 2026 144 1010.19 1012.80 -31.69 2026 145 1011.06 1012.85 -25.41 2026 146 1013.30 1012.45 -5.19 2026 147 1013.80 1013.10 -6.34 2026 148 1012.81 1014.30 -23.11 2026 149 1011.31 1014.15 -33.46
  14. GaWx
    It’s already positive (~+1.7)as per the latest CFSv2 initialization posted above. That was well predicted on that insane 0Z 5/25 run as one can see.
  15. GaWx
    Not surprisingly being that the crazy high 0Z 5/25/26 run was likely the strongest CFSv2 ensemble mean +AAM prog since at least 2023, it has come way down since. As I’ve said a number of times, it’s the CFSv2 long range and thus while worth following and posting, s/b taken with a huge grain. 0Z 5/25/26 run: mean peak ~+3.5 late June! 12Z 5/28/26 run: mean peak way down to only ~+1 in late June: like night and day!
×
×
  • Create New...