GaWx

Thanks for elaborating. I see. But this begs the question: why is the ice sheet getting smaller in the first place? Isn’t that in itself due to GW?

Thanks, Don! -I agree with you about the lack of dates and other references on his map, which I mentioned to Charlie in my reply to him. That makes me wonder if he’s hiding something. -So, based on your June and July maps, June-July averaged near normal along the Nepal-Tibet border vs a 1991-2020 base, the warmest 30 year base. Taking that as well as the extreme heat of Aug 10-15 into account, it would seemingly have had to have been much colder than normal Aug 1-9 and Aug 16+ to possibly result in a cooler than normal summer. I have my doubts knowing who we’re dealing with here. -He also has nearly all of Tibet in blue colors. But your June/July maps averaged out appear to average warmer than normal over much of Tibet if I’m interpreting them correctly. Thus, August would have had to have been an overall cold month to have a chance to overcome the warmer than avg June-July.

Thanks. Please elaborate. I’m not sure I’m following what you’re asking.

Thanks, Charlie, for posing that. None of what you posted from that article surprises me. I’m not at all expecting to take JB’s side, especially because he’s a proud denier of AGW being a significant factor in GW. But what do you know about his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years? Did he just make this up? From where would he have gotten accurate data so far back? Also, does that map of his that I reposted supposedly showing a somewhat cooler than normal summer along the Nepal-Tibet border have any significance even if accurate? I noticed it has no legend and no reference like the base period and the period these blue colors are representing. He’s saying this is the “wrong summer” to claim a disaster was based on GW. But even if it truly was cooler than normal this summer there, would that even matter being that melting supposedly would have already been put in motion due to supposedly prior warmer than normal periods?

Of course it’s possible. I’d put odds at ~25% as of now. Based on the fact that none are shown on current models, this being progged to be the strongest Nino on record, and the modern analog 1997, which had its last TC become a H on Sept 4th, it’s a realistic possibility though still not anywhere near a likelihood this early in the season. That’s why I’m roughly estimating a 25% chance.

Today’s release for last week averaged out has a notable rise in 1+2: 19AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 26AUG2026 3.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 To compare, here’s 1997: 27AUG1997 3.3 2.6 1.9 0.4 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

I just watched Joe Bastardi’s free to the public Saturday Summary. He says the Nepal disaster has nothing to do with CC. Why? -He says that there has been no net change in temperature in Nepal in 400 years! -He shows a summer temp. anomaly map that has blue colors all over Tibet including the Tibet-Nepal border. So, I’d like to know whether or not these two things are true. Anyone know? @donsutherland1

The 0Z UKMET (as an TD) and CMC still have this recurving TC.

0Z: UKMET and CMC both dropped the return of Dolly.

Early afternoon in Vail I saw the strongest thunderstorm of my CO trip. It got so dark just before the start! I considered it to be severe with very strong winds at the start bringing down cold air into the 50s. The winds must have been 50++, which the aspens handled well. Soon after good drought helping heavy rain fell followed by lots of pea sized hail that lasted ~5 minutes. As a result of 3 periods of rain, it was in the 50s most of the afternoon! Sure beats GA summer heat and humidity! It’s down to 48 with rain and wind. Feels like what typical winter day would be in Savannah! This is why I like coming here in summer.

12z Euro: looks like a TD that comes ashore near LA/TX border midday Tue.

I’m talking about models that had avg for Aug minus avg for July ~1C. It’s looking more like just 0.5C.

12Z UKMET for 2nd full run in a row has a TC originating in the W MDR well out in the run. 0Z had a TD but 12Z has a strengthening mid-grade TS as it recurves well away from any landmass due to a notable upper trough per H5 maps: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 52.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 15.8N 52.0W 1011 25 0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 16.9N 55.0W 1010 30 1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 17.8N 57.6W 1008 35 0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 19.3N 59.2W 1006 41 1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 20.8N 59.6W 1002 48

12Z UKMET doesn’t quite designate this as a TD but it does have 25 knot winds just offshore LA Mon night and landfall Tue AM near TX/LA border. Lowest SLP only gets down to 1011 mb fwiw.

12 UKMET: ex-Dolly becomes a TD right before it moves NW into FL NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 26.5N 78.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.09.2026 108 27.5N 79.5W 1008 29 1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 29.2N 81.3W 1008 31 0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 30.8N 83.2W 1008 24 1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 32.0N 85.4W 1009 19 0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 32.8N 87.3W 1008 18 1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 33.1N 87.9W 1008 20