GaWx
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About GaWx

Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KSAV
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Gender
Not Telling
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Location:
SAV, GA
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Interests
weather stats, sports, walking/hiking
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Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well vs the 2013-24 average! This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well! This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958: -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Although the -SOI streak is up to a whopping 89 days and it will reach the low 90s (2nd longest on record back to 1991 by a large margin to early 1998’s 100 days), there’s a good chance it will finally end early next week short of the 100 day record with at least one smallish +SOI as it now appears. Let’s see what actually happens. -
Folks believe Maue’s purposefully trying to sound overly dramatic to make fun of the doomsayers on social media.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm: He originally said this way back in April: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A 3rd year in a row of measurable snow down here on/near the coast of GA would be amazing since it would be unprecedented in the modern day record book (back to 1870s). -
Winter 2026-2027 Seasonal Outlook
GaWx replied to WinstonSalemArlington's topic in Southeastern States
New Euro at 2m: looks good to me but I expect Dec to be mild. So, I’d take this in a heartbeat! Jan is slightly cooler: I like -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
-SOI is up to 87 straight days. Record is 1998’s 100 days. I don’t know if it will make it to 100. -1015+ Darwin streak ended at 26 days, breaking old record back to 1991 of 20 days -
I don’t live at sea level and wouldn’t due to flooding risk, even though I live within 15 miles of the coast. I live 25-30 feet above SL. But those not worried about flooding/storm risk have plenty reason to live right on the coast due to the beautiful views as well as refreshingly cooling and clean sea breezes, especially in summer.
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I don’t know whether or not it is clueless, but the new (8/1) Euro Atlantic seasonal forecast for Sept and beyond isn’t as inactive as what the Apr-June versions showed, which were below normal. This new one, similar to the July run, is actually pretty close to the 1993-2025 climate mean for Sept+ with 8.9 TS and 3.3 MH: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seaso ... 2608010000
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
OHC is still rising and is now at insanely high levels (>+3), especially for early August! @snowman19 -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Even the Euro’s 3.4 RONI peaks at ~+3.4 in Nov, which would obliterate the current record of +2.5 set Jan 1982! Note that in switching from ERSST version 5 to 6, the record warmest has dropped at it had been +2.7 based on ERSST version 5. This prog is slightly warmer than the peaks of +3.3 on the prior run (July) and +3.2 on the June run: 8/2/26 3.4 RONI peak ~+3.4 in Nov: -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yesterday’s 12Z CFSv2 run has the AAM at 4+ for all 4 members simultaneously for only the 2nd run I’ve ever seen! This has that on day 15 (Aug 18th) although it is just for that one day. The only other run that I’ve seen with all 4 members at 4+ at the same time on any day is the 8/1/26 12Z run and it didn’t have that til way out only 3 days from the end of the run (day 32 or 9/1/26)! @snowman19 12Z 8/4/26 CFSv2 AAM: all >4 on 8/18/26 -
Thanks for posting about this perspective about borealization, which presents it as a net negative. Modeling the potential myriad of effects of continued GW for the globe as a whole remains a highly complex and thus difficult endeavor. Thus having good discussions on these topics is beneficial.
