GaWx

Hey troll, I didn’t say these were anywhere near historic. The record lows for 12/15 at RDU/ATL are way down at 8/11. But these are ~18 BN.

The 12Z model consensus is coming in for Mon lows at ~20F for ATL and ~17-20F for RDU.

It was about a week in advance when the models suddenly got colder for the period starting a few days before Thanksgiving. We’re now about a week before the progged big warmup in the E US. Just saying although I’m not saying that will likely happen again. But it’s good to stay grounded due to the inaccuracy of models more than a week out.

It also got down to 29 at KSAV, which was a few degrees colder than the forecasted lower 30s. But it didn’t quite get down to the coldest yet this season, which is the incredible 28 of Nov 11th.

Per yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, it’s overall looking to average mild from the Mid-Atlantic-OH Valley-lower Midwest south for most of the 4 week long period 12/22-1/18. Could it end up verifying well? Of course, especially the earliest portion, when statistically there’s more skill. Will it? Nobody could possibly know, obviously. Notwithstanding the poor performance for the 3 weeks from just before Thanksgiving through mid Dec, the Euro Weeklies have been just good enough at foretelling general trends that they shouldn’t be ignored by any means. But could they largely end up failing, especially for the Jan portion? Obviously they could.

1. No teleconnection even comes close to guaranteeing anything. Anyone who says it does is overrating it. But most have notable tendencies that make them helpful for forecasting. They’re useful tools, including the MJO, but they’re not crystal balls as the atmosphere is much too complicated for any one index to be reliable. I’d argue the MJO is about as good a tool as any of them, but like any tool it needs to be used correctly. 2. I recently did an analysis of 3+ day long Dec phase 8 at RDU and found a whopping 78% of them to have been colder than normal: # of periods: MB 5 (22%), B 13 (57%), NN 0 (0%), A 2 (9%), MA 3 (13%) So, there have been nearly 4 times as many B/MB periods as A/MA periods at RDU for Dec phase 8 periods lasting at least 3 days. 3. Regardless, of what may come and in what phase, what about prior to that period? The period 12/3-16, most of which is forecasted to be in phase 8, is forecasted to end up with all colder than normal days at RDU and in much of the SE and to be at least in the top 5 cold for that period of the last 50 years! That would be 90 percentile cold. 4. I plan to average out the temperature anomalies for whatever days end up in phase 8 later this month.

Thanks. Our areas had a freezing fog advisory late last night, which I believe is quite rare:309 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025 ..PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING AREA OBSERVATIONS, SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND WEB CAMS INDICATE THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE PATCHY FOG IS SHALLOW, BUT IS PRODUCING VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN ISOLATED AREAS. MUCH OF THE FOG IS FORMING AS STEAM FOG NEAR WATERWAYS INCLUDING RIVERS, STREAMS, TIDAL CREEKS, AND MARSHES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS. FREEZING FOG WILL OCCUR, EVEN PRODUCING LIGHT RIME ICE ON ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES. WHILE LOW VISIBILITIES COULD IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY WHERE VISIBILITIES CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES, RIME ICE FROM FREEZING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY IMPACT ON TRAVEL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE, BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF DRIVING, SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE EXTRA DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU IN CASE A SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED.

A half hour ago I finished walking at the park in 35 invigorating degrees. To sort of borrow a phrase from DT, yes, I was the only sick, twisted cold wx freak out there walking. But I was bundled up and had extra energy giving me an extra spring in my step. Winds were calm with clear skies allowing for Gainesville, FL-like ideal radiation. I could even see some cool looking steam fog over water. Dewpoints were only a couple of degrees lower. Today’s high was only 45, which is 20 below normal.

Today is the 9th day in a row of highs below 60 at SAV and below 50 at GSO, extending the record! Before this SAV had never even had this for Dec 1-7 going back to 1874. GSO had had a 7 day period one other time.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for the 4 weeks Dec 22nd through Jan 18th continue to look bad (mild) especially in the SE and MidAtlantic. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. The hope is that they’re just pain wrong. But that’s just a hope: 12/22-28: 12/29-1/4: 1/5-11 1/12-18:

There’s a college football thread for those who don’t know and are interested that could use more discussion like this:

After a big drop yesterday of 7%, natural gas prices are again sharply lower today (down 5% for a 2 day total of 12%) on warmer E US prospects for at least late this month. It’s very rare for NG to drop that much in early winter with cold looking to dominate for the foreseeable future, which as we know is not at all the case after about a week of intense E US cold per model consensus. Week one’s intense cold is already built into the price. It’s usually changes in prospects for week 2 into early week 3 that drive daily changes in NG prices. That’s because week one is normally already priced in and typically doesn’t jump around too much. And beyond early week 3 is usually too far out in fantasyland/too little forecasting skill that far out to have too much impact.

1. Where’s “Star” located? 2. No index ever even comes close to guaranteeing anything. That’s nothing new to us. 3, However: The period Dec 3-17, which is prior to the days his maps are showing, is currently looking to end up much colder than normal in the majority of the E US, including a top 3-5 coldest of the last 50 years in many places. That would jibe well with phase 8’s cold E US tendency.

Per the quite fallible model consensus: The -WPO looks to easily be the strongest in Dec since 2013. Other strong -WPO (sub -1.00) Decembers: 2013, 2010, 2009, 2005, 1999, 1995, 1989, 1980, 1976, 1975, 1966, 1961, 1956, 1955, and 1954. So, Dec of 2025 has a good shot at making the top 20% strongest -WPOs. How was the subsequent Jan WPO for these 15? Negative WPO Jan: 2011, 1996, 1981, 1977, 1976, 1962, 1957, and 1956 (8 of the 15) Neutral WPO Jan: 2010, 2000, 1955 Positive WPO Jan: 2014, 2006, 1990, 1967 So, these strong -WPO Decembers were somewhat biased toward -WPO Jan with twice as many -WPO Jans as +WPO Jans The current model consensus *fwiw* suggests there’s a good chance we don’t end up with a -EPO for Dec as a whole with a lean toward fairly neutral to potentially +EPO when averaged out. How often have there been strong -WPO Decs without a -EPO? - -EPO Dec: 2013, 2009, 2005, 1989, 1980, 1976 - neutral EPO Dec: 2010, 1995, 1966, 1956, 1955 - +EPO Dec: 1999, 1975, 1961, 1954 So, Dec EPO was pretty balanced for strong -WPO Decembers Monthly WPO: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data

I forgot to mention that there’s a dedicated thread for today’s storm. For documentation purposes, you may also want to post your results in there: Today here I just got an invigorating walk in with low 40s and just enough breeze to give it a nice bite. Today’s high of only 51 (normal is 65) means that every day so far this month has had a high only in the 50s. We already had had the first time in recorded history (back to 1874) of no high reaching 60 for Dec 1-7. Now it’s also the first time for that for Dec 1-8 and tomorrow is going to make it the first time for Dec 1-9! Rainfall so far this month is over 2”, which is way above the normal of 0.75” for Dec 1-9. For the first time since at least Thursday we had no rain.