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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Further to my global relative AAM post above showing it >+4 since yesterday and to show the huge contrast to the prior El Nino, here are some of the graphs I saved from 2023-4, which all show a much lower amplitude (keep in mind that CFSv2 progs looking out especially past 2 weeks have been biased positive as comparing these graphs to each other clearly show): 11/6/23: +0.15 12/16/23: +0.7: 12/30/23: +1.15 (highest of any I saved from 2023-4) 1/8/24: +0.15 2/3/24: +0.5 2/21/24: +0.2 3/1/24: -0.35
  2. GaWx
    The global relative AAM remains in historic territory of +4+, which should last into tomorrow. This is probably its highest since Feb of 1998. For comparison, 2023-4 was no more than in the low +1 region on any of the graphs I saved with most of them <+0.5:
  3. GaWx
    The AAM went over +4 as expected yesterday (9/19) per the image below, an extremely rare/historic event. The last time it was this high may very well have been in early Feb of 1998. It appears that it will likely stay >+4 into Sept 21st:
  4. GaWx
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml
  5. GaWx
    The main CFS site actually has 40 run averages (10 days x 4 runs/day).
  6. GaWx
    Also, the TT maps use colder 1984-2009 climo instead of the CFS site’s 1991-2020. The TT 3 day (12 run) avg does jump around more than the CFS site 10 day (40 run) avg. Regardless, I haven’t seen any 3 day avg Feb recently nearly as cold as those record cold Febs that were on some Aug 3 day means in the SE to S Plains. Then again, that degree of cold was hardly believable especially that far out. They were dreamable for me but not believable. I’ll keep following the trends of both the TT 3 day means and the CFS site 10 day means.
  7. GaWx
    Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated near the center of a low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the western Azores since yesterday. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while moving north-northeastward at about 5 mph, but remaining well to the southwest of the Azores. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development beginning late Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Berg
  8. GaWx
    Recent 3 day mean CFS’ have cut way back on the degree of cold in Feb: 9/16-18 Compare that to this from 8/7-9:
  9. GaWx
    There indeed have been UK runs with false TCs though not false canes. But in this case, all models have a low off the NE coast as opposed to it being just on the UK. But would it be T, ST, or ET and would it stay offshore?
  10. GaWx
    Watch off the E coast next week. Here’s a hint of that from 0Z Uk: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 36.1N 70.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 25.09.2026 156 36.9N 69.7W 1000 47 0000UTC 26.09.2026 168 39.1N 67.9W 997 41
  11. GaWx
    Google Deep Mind
  12. GaWx
    AAM +3.9 & rising to very extreme levels. Should be off the chart on next runs:
  13. GaWx
    Did you see this?
  14. GaWx
    There may very well be a reduction in the # of storms due to GW because it has warmed the poles much more than the tropics. Because tropical systems bring heat out of the tropics to higher latitudes, it’s possible that the lower contrast means fewer storms albeit with perhaps stronger storms on average due to the warming oceans. Indeed, we’ve had stronger storms in the Atlantic basin with more cat 5 since 2016 per year than for the prior period. But OTOH, I do wonder if just having warmer oceans is enough to generate stronger storms. Isn’t it the contrast of the avg tropical ocean temp vs the avg global temp that matters most? The oceans in the tropical/subtropical regions are obviously warmer, but the rest of the globe is warmer, too. It used to be that ~79F was a crucial SST to support TCG. Is that crucial SST going to warm up due to GW? Your thoughts?
  15. GaWx
    Follow-up: I emailed the 2 contacts who are listed at this CFSv2 site. Just minutes later, the site was updated! Here’s the brand new latest 10 day mean RONI forecast: as expected, the progged peak dropped even further to +2.8. Compare that to the +3.5 runs of late July. It appears it could even drop to +2.75 later this month based on the red vs blue lines:
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