GaWx

Very intense? Absolutely! One of the most expansive? No way! That along with trying to connect the developing super-Nino with summer heat made his post bad to me. But then Chris Martz had a terrible reply, himself, when he downplayed the U.S. and European heatwaves by saying “It’s called ‘summer’”. Also, he criticized Jeff’s use of the term “heat dome” for the heatwaves even though it has been used frequently in the pro-met community for decades! So, both of them, who are looking at this from opposing standpoints more or less, looked bad here imho.

CFS 10 day mean relative prog is at a new record high prog for its Nov peak in 3.4: SON/OND peak +3.2 vs +3.1 earlier vs +2.5 record (1982): N peak +3.4 vs +3.3 earlier vs +2.7 record (1982):

As of 10AM, Philly is 4F warmer than 24 hours ago (94 vs 90)!

As of July 2nd per the DMI data, the mean Arctic temperature based on 80N+ has still not quite reached freezing although it was only barely below it yesterday. Going back to 1958, the latest day it first hit freezing before 2026 was way back on June 20th (2013)! Daily Mean Arctic temp. in degrees Kelvin: freezing is at 273.15 (July 2nd was 0.1C below freezing): 0260618 169 272.561676 20260619 170 272.634399 20260620 171 272.647522 20260621 172 272.469360 20260622 173 272.153870 20260623 174 271.679565 20260624 175 271.918213 20260625 176 272.421326 20260626 177 272.655334 20260627 178 272.803802 20260628 179 272.680786 20260629 180 272.732056 20260630 181 272.903717 20260701 182 272.963715 20260702 183 273.045624 https://download.dmi.dk/pub/plus80N_temperatureindex/meanT2026_running.txt

Per this, the lowest at NYC as of 8AM today was 84: https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html

At C Park, the lowest so far today is 84. IF that were to hold up through 11:59PM, it would tie the all time highest low there on record!

Indeed! I’m not at all trying to minimize the heatwave in the NYC area. There has been some talk about Central Park running a couple of degrees cooler for highs than in the past due to increased foliage (showing the cooling power of foliage). Even so, 100F with increased foliage is obviously still very intense. Also, C Park had a low of only a ridiculous 82 yesterday! At C Park, the lowest so far today is 84. IF that were to hold up through 11:59PM, it would tie the all time highest low there, which goes way back to 1869!

Whereas La Guardia did hit 104 and Newark hit 105, the official Central Park high actually was “only” 100.

Once again the GFS (6Z) is way too hot in the extended. Even if H5 reaches the near record high upper 590s as it has, highs on July 14-15th will not reach anywhere near as hot as this shows even with the drought:6Z GFS July 14th highs: for example 112 at SAV is loltastic as that’s compared to the 105 all-time hottest on record there back 155 years! 6Z GFS July 15th highs: also not going to happen

This jibes with my response 3 posts above yours to Jeff B.’s implied false connection of the current developing super-Nino to increased very intense heat in the E US based on his Tweet. Only the summer of 1991 was hot overall in the E US as I said, which is essentially agreed with by your lists. I’m referring to Poughkeepsie’s 102 on 7/19/1991. None of the other developing super-Ninos prior to 2026-7 are on any of your 4 lists.

I don’t agree at all with Jeff B. implying a connection of super-Nino and the current E US heatwave. The mean temp in July (and also in summer as a whole) comes out close to normal rather than hot in the E US when averaging RONI based super strong El Niños. Hardly any were hot. 1957, 65, 72, and 97 were slightly cool. 1982 and 2015 were NN. Only 1991 was hot. That’s just 1 of the 7! That’s enough for me to say that the upcoming super-El Nino in combo with GW is not the direct cause for the current E US heatwave as Jeff said. GW, by itself, obviously favors hotter heatwaves than when the Earth was cooler. But the supposed super-El Nino piece of this, itself, correlating to E US summer heat does not compute to me at all. I also don’t at all agree with Jeff calling this one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves. That’s simply not true. Intense in the VA to Boston corridor? Yes. But not one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves.

Thank you, but I don’t think I’m going to do July. I’m currently too busy to take enough time to analyze the data (forecast and historic) well.

Thanks, Don. I’ll reiterate that I was referring to only E US rather than all of the U.S. mean temps (especially in July) and that I didn’t even consider 2023 because it was only borderline moderate/strong on a RONI basis with a peak of only +1.49. So, 2015, with its heatwave in the Pacific NW (nowhere close to the E US) and 2023 not being nearly strong enough to count as super-Nino per the now official (per NOAA) RONI basis don’t even count for me against super El Niño E US heat. And even if 2023 were counted, its heat was most concentrated in the SW/SC rather than E US.

I’ll reiterate that I thought Chris Martz looked really bad due to saying “it’s called summer” and for saying “heat dome” wasn’t the correct term. However, I also said Jeff B. was wrong for calling the current/upcoming US heatwave one of the most expansive in history. Here again is Chris’ post responding to Jeff: But I forgot to earlier mention this: The mean temp in July (and also in summer as a whole) comes out close to normal rather than hot in the E US when averaging RONI based super strong El Niños. See image below. Hardly any were hot. 1957, 65, 72, and 97 were slightly cool. 1982 and 2015 were NN. Only 1991 was hot. That’s just 1 of the 7! That’s enough for me to say that the upcoming super-El Nino in combo with GW is not the direct cause for the current E US heatwave as Jeff said. GW, by itself, obviously favors hotter heatwaves than when the Earth was cooler. But the supposed super-El Nino piece of this, itself, correlating to E US heat does not compute to me at all. Thus whereas I thought Chris’ post was terrible, I also think Jeff’s was pretty bad, itself. @donsutherland1

As bad as it will be in much of the SE, consider that the NYC forecasted low for July 4th is a very oppressive 81 F!