GaWx

After being pretty flat in August/first few days of Sept, the relative 3.4 OISST anomaly has risen sharply the last two days: Sept 4th relative 3.4: +2.254 Sept 6th relative 3.4 anomaly: +2.429, a rise of 0.175 in just two days…that’s the most rapid two day rise on this entire chart as it is the most rapid two day rise since June 3rd-5th, which is not on this chart:

The daily WCS PDO has risen back substantially the last 7 days ending yesterday with it up to -0.9, the highest since way back on July 2nd, vs ~-1.65 one week earlier:

Here’s the version of CRW anomalies for Nino 3.4 that best takes into account GW in determining anomalies: it’s +2.5C and rising:

CANSIPS appears to have a significant Modoki bias based on several years of data. I thought it had this bias even before this year.

The latest relative weekly for Nino 1+2 comes in about where I expected, +3.9. This for the 2nd week in a row is at a record high (back to 1981) for the week, warmer than 1997’s +3.6 and 0.4 warmer than the previous week’s +3.5. The highest relative 1+2 on record for any week is +4.6 (1983) and the highest relative in 1997 for any week was +4.1, which was set twice. Regarding the relative for other regions, Nino 3 warmed barely while 3.4 and 4 stayed the same. The changes overall mean an even more E based Nino than the prior week showed: 9AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 26AUG2026 3.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 02SEP2026 3.9 2.7 1.8 0.1 For comparison: 03SEP1997 3.6 2.8 2.0 0.4 So, early Sept. ‘26 is slightly more E based than the previous most E based early Sept. (back to 1981) of 1997. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

I assume you know that the warmest month of the winter of 1982-3 in the E US, including SE, was Dec by a wide margin. It was a bonafide torch, the only month like that in the SE to NE. The remainder in the SE was pretty close to normal to slightly BN in some areas.

As a near coastal resident who was directly affected heavily by FIVE H/TS 2016-24, I’m very much enjoying the break from the stress of threats! However, looking back at the 6 other El Niño seasons with <4.4 ACE through Sep 6th tells me to still be cautious for the rest of the season, especially late Sept through mid-Oct: 1) 1941: -TS TX/LA border mid Sep -H TX late Sep -TS Windwards/MH Honduras/Nicaragua/H Belize late Sep -H NW Bahamas/MH S FL/H FL Pan early Oct -TS SE Bahamas/FL Big Bend mid Oct 2) 1929: -MH NW Bahamas and S FL tip/H FL Pan late Sep 3) 1914: -TS FL/GA border mid Sep 4) 1905: -TS Belize/LA late Sep -TS W Haiti early Oct -TS LA early Oct 5) 1904: -H upper SC mid Sep -TS Belize early Oct -H C Cuba/S FL mid Oct -TS FL Pan early Nov 6) 1876: -H/Leewards/MH VI and PR/H Hisp/E Cuba/NC mid Sep -TS Windwards late Sep/H Nicaragua early Oct -H Caymans/MH W Cuba/H Keys and SW FL/TS Bermuda mid Oct These six very quiet first half of season El Niño analogs are suggesting an avg of 3 TCs (range 1-5), including 1.5 H (range 0-3) and 0.8 MH (range 0-2) yet to come that would have significant to major land impacts. Hopefully though it will be most like 1914 or otherwise 1905 at the worst! https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

1. This very strong El Niño has a good chance to start helping out you and other SE dry areas by Nov and hopefully would then continue on/off through March as climo suggests. 2. I ended up getting very little from the late afternoon thunderstorms. It was only ~0.04”.

I’ve been getting light rain from thunderstorms during the last ~1/2 hour as it started ~4PM. I just heard pretty loud thunder from one fairly close CTG lightning strike.

I’m not disagreeing with you because I’m, myself, quite suspicious about the 1/15/22 Hunga-Tonga causing that delayed temp spike earlier in ‘23 than what the ‘23 El Niño should have caused. But if you were to post that in the CC forum, you’d get a lot of opposition or at least doubt based on past Hunga-Tonga discussions in there. Several folks there have downplayed it because they think the warming effect was minimal/far lower than that early ‘23 temp spike and they backed it up with at least one source fwiw.

Thanks. But this graph has avg for entire summer well over 0C? This is far warmer than what Chris Martz was suggesting about the site of the collapse (i.e., only occasionally reaching to barely above freezing), isn’t it?

Thanks, Don. Does that big a difference in temps for just 160 km away and 164 meters/538 feet elevation jibe with what you’d expect? Dry adiabatic rate is 3C/5.4F per 1000 feet, correct? So, on 2nd thought, maybe?

Although this 12Z 9/5/26 CFSv2 ens. AAM fcast is THE highest I’ve seen for the entire 35 day period, I realize that it has a + bias, especially the further out in the forecast period. I still haven’t seen anything forecasted at 4+ to verify even closely and even many of the 3+ forecast days have been overdone. This has 4+ for all 4 members by day 11 (Sept 15th), which along with the 0Z 9/5/26 forecast is at the earliest I’ve ever seen that high. It has 3+ starting on Sep. 8th. But as I alluded to, many runs had 3+ for all of mid to late Aug and all of Sept and few, if any, days actually hit 3+ since mid Aug. It even dipped briefly to just below +2 in late Aug! In this case, I expect it will reach 3+ within a few days based on how steep it has it rising now. But regarding it hitting 4+ Sep. 15th or even after, I’ll believe it when I see it!

I’m admittedly confused. Are we looking at the temp. data for the same place? Per my post from 3 days ago: “Highest and lowest recorded temperatures at Everest Base Camp (EBC) depend on which camp and which dataset, but reliable observations come from automatic weather stations (AWS) installed at the South Base Camp (Nepal side, ~5,364 m) and other nearby high-altitude stations. Summary of best-available values (observations and published AWS records, through May 2024): Highest recorded air temperature South (Nepal) Base Camp AWS: about −1.0 °C to +1.0 °C on the warmest days in late spring/early summer (typically May). Many published station summaries and expedition logs report peak values near 0 °C; a commonly cited peak is ~+0.5 °C. Slightly warmer spot measurements in sunlight or lower-elevation tent sites can exceed +1 °C briefly, but sustained, instrumented air-temperature peaks at the official South Base Camp are around 0 °C to +1 °C. @donsutherland1@Typhoon Tip

Lol!