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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Click on 2nd chart on right at this link: https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/ It dropped to -1.04, which is equivalent to the NOAA being in the ~-1.75 to -2 range.
  2. GaWx
    Opinions on N half of ATL metro over next 4 days…should just about everyone expect 1-3”?
  3. GaWx
    Thanks. Actually at the current point in time, I have 2026 to be most similar to 2015: check this out 13MAY2015 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 20MAY2015 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.6
  4. GaWx
    I didn’t say 1982 was W based overall. I was specifically referring to the mid May snapshot, when it was actually W based. I said, “In mid May vs 2026”, 1982 was more W based than 2026: 1982: 1+2 was coolest in mid May 12MAY1982 -0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 19MAY1982 -0.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 2026: 1+2 is warmest in mid May 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 So, as of mid May, 1982 was more W based than 2026. Later (July and beyond), I agree that 1982 clearly transitioned to E based. But my post was referring only to the snapshot as of the current point in time, mid May.
  5. GaWx
    Darwin’s higher than normal SLP is finally starting to contribute to a -SOI. Until yesterday, it’s been mainly due to low Tahiti SLP.
  6. GaWx
    Looking at mid May relative 1+2, 1997 was +2.2 and rising (it hit +3.0 in early June and +4.0 in early Aug) vs 2026 being +1.3 and rising. Otherwise, 1997 and 2026 are very close in 3, 3.4, and 4. So, that’s why I have 1997 more E based than 2026 as of the mid May snapshot. It’s all because of 1+2, which has a 0.9C diff although it’s a more volatile area since smaller. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  7. GaWx
    In mid May vs 2026: -2023 was more E based -2015 was similar -1997 was more E based -1991 and 1982 were more W based https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  8. GaWx
    1. Per that table, 2023 had a record high IOD for the months of Aug and Sep. 2. Keep in mind that IOD levels have had a notable longtime rise though. So, that biases more recent years toward a higher +IOD. Even the warm neutral (as opposed to El Niño) 2019 had a very strong +IOD in autumn/2nd strongest only to 1997! And as I already said, the very weak El Niño of 2018 still was able to have a strong +IOD.
  9. GaWx
    I’m not @snowman19but I can tell you based on the link below that 2023 was similar to 1997 in having a very strong +IOD. 2018 was next and then 1994. 1972, 1982, 2006, and 2015 were next (still moderately strong). Keep in mind: -There’s been a decided longterm rise of the IOD in this table. So, it isn’t adjusted for long term trends. That’s why 2018 had such a strong +IOD despite El Niño being weak. -IOD tends to peak ~Oct-Nov and falls off in winter, especially when strongly positive in autumn. So when moderate to strong +IOD in SON, it about always has had a notably lower DJF vs SON. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data
  10. GaWx
    Evidently based on pro mets I follow, having relatively cooler SST anomalies near Australia compared to warmer anomalies to the east of there will be crucial. For 2023, the models, which earlier had the nice E US trough/Aleutian low that we were salivating over, were then erroneously forecasting cooler near Australia, which is pretty typical of El Niño. This strong El Niño is great news for the really bad drought the SE has been enduring.
  11. GaWx
    Latest CFS RONI peaks at +2.65 to +2.70 in OND, which would be a record high beating 1982: Latest CFS ONI is +3.25-30 in OND, meaning keeping the differential near 0.6:
  12. GaWx
    I’ve got the solution. If you want to minimize the chance for a warmer than normal winter where you live, just move down south and your chances will fall substantially!
  13. GaWx
    Thanks, Chuck. Does it say anything about the May AO, That’s projected right now to be +AO.
  14. GaWx
    FWIW, it appears as of the current GEFS 14 day forecast that we’re probably headed for a net relatively small -NAO for May as a whole.
  15. GaWx
    BoM May RONI not surprisingly reduced from +1.1 to +0.5 but later months actually a bit warmer than prior run with Oct +3.0 vs +2.7 prior run and +2.7 record for a single month (1982) 5/9/26 run: May was at +1.1 5/16/26 run: May down to +0.5 but warmer later months
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