GaWx

I’ll check now for December. These 9 were solidly -WPO Decembers dominating throughout the entire month: 2013, 2010, 2009, 2005, 1995, 1989, 1980, 1961, and 1956. Of these: 1) Cold in the S Plains? 2013, 2009, 2005, 1989, 1961 2) Near normal S Plains? 2010, 1995 3) Mild S Plains? 1980, 1956 So, strong -WPO Decembers leaned somewhat to the cold side in the S Plains, but only 5 of 9 averaged cold. It looks like this year may end up averaging near normal based on a cold 1st half and mild 2nd half. But we’ll see. PNA for these 9 Decembers: 2013: moderate -PNA 2010: strong -PNA 2009: weak +PNA 2005: strong +PNA 1995: moderate +PNA 1989: moderate +PNA 1980: weak -PNA 1961: strong -PNA 1956: weak -PNA So, PNA for these solidly -WPO Decembers is very mixed.

Well, as of Dec 13th, the MJO still hasn’t returned to phase 8! It was in 8 only Dec 3rd-7th. Dec 8th-13th have all been in very weak (essentially neutral) phases 5-7. I still think it has a good chance to get back into 8 very soon, but we’ll see:

The 12/13/25 WPO of -3.48 is the most negative WPO on any day in December since 12/25/1996! The only Decembers since 1948 with at least one day lower than -3.48 are: 1996, 1989, 1983, 1977, 1966, 1955

But the Euro Weeklies still look mainly mild in most of the E US S of the northern fringe with the torchiest still W of the E US.

I just took a walk in very refreshing and invigorating 40 degree single digit dewpoint air along with beautiful blue skies and light winds. I love this wx!

OHC has been rising sharply the last 30 days:

Yeah, unfortunately here’s the ugly truth for E US cold preferrers (NG is down another 1% today making it a whopping 26% drop from the peak 11 days ago): left graph has EPS HDD (latest out/0Z in purple); note the cliff dive it takes from today’s very cold 33 HDD, which is a whopping 10 above the normal of 23, to 12/18’s mild 18, which is 6 below the normal of 24! It later gets as low as 15 on 12/25, which is 10 below the normal of 25!

It looks like that’s the case (rotated quickly through and out) per 850 temps on the models: 7PM in degrees C last night near the coldest brrrrr! 1AM last night had already warmed some with coldest already rotating to E NC/VA: 7AM this morning had warmed a lot everywhere!

Indeed. The official RMM record always puts it in one of the 8 phases (6, 5, 6, 7, 7 per the bolded below for 12/8-12), but, regardless, this is about as bullseye/weak as you can get for a 5 day period: 2025 12 8 0.16185258 0.31161267 6 0.35113916 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 9 0.23143651 0.18252292 5 0.29474986 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 10 0.12193847 0.22910139 6 0.25953120 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 11 -9.49310213E-02 0.16355878 7 0.18911207 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 12 -2.23553125E-02 8.96196812E-02 7 9.23658386E-02 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

MJO still hadn’t gone back into 8 as of 12/12 with it technically still in a very weak 7 per the record: so, 12/8-12 in very weak phases 5-7 essentially neutral with it not far from the center

No, I’ll pass lol. 26.6 is coldest I saw for here (at 7:40 AM) The official (airport) low was 25 as of 7AM.

Cold air (SE style) is always appreciated by cold weenies like me because heat/humidity are so dominant much of the year. I had an invigorating walk just after it went through here early this evening. It was still in the upper to mid 50s, but it still felt so clean and crisp due to the combo of the the wind and dewpoints plunging into the mid-20s! Dry cold gives me so much energy! We’d better enjoy it while we still have it. Forecast is for low 20s even down in this area! But there’s still a long ways to go with it still at 43.5 here.

Thanks, Mitch. For the MidAtlantic, I roughly estimate 55% AN vs 45% BN. So, quite mixed as you’re implying. Thus, the predictability for Christmas and other days nearby is pretty low.

Despite my more optimistic posts in recent days, I always still try to be objective and show everything, good or bad. The Euro Weeklies remain steadfast on a warmer than average SE and Mid-Atlantic westward/solid -PNA through almost the entire run. The torchiest still remains well to the west of the E/SE US thanks to occasional cool-offs likely largely related to CAD saving the day. The NE is not far from normal. It tries to cool off in general in the E US toward normal the last week (1/19-25), but it isn’t really exciting looking. I continue to hope that just like the models have performed in many cases for the last 3.5 weeks, that they keep busting too warm in the E US.

This has been going on a lot since the Nov 20th and earlier runs were too warm for Thanksgiving week in much of the E US.