GaWx

Yesterday’s NOAA weekly release for relative 3.4 came in at +1.8, which is the warmest early August on record back to 1982: 29JUL2026 3.2 2.1 1.5 0.2 05AUG2026 3.3 2.4 1.8 0.3 ———————— How does this compare to 1997? 06AUG1997 3.9 2.3 1.6 0.3 —————— How does this +1.8 for 3.4 compare to others for weeks centered near August 5th? 2026 +1.8 2023 +0.4 2015 +1.1 2012 +0.7 2009 +0.4 2006 +0.2 2004 +0.7 2002 +0.7 1997 +1.6 1994 +0.8 1993 +0.4 1991 +0.7 1990 +0.4 1987 +1.2 1986 +0.3 1982 +1.0 The earliest any of these reached +1.8 is August 20, 1997.

0Z UKMETNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.6N 37.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 72 10.1N 38.8W 1011 251200UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.6N 41.9W 1011 270000UTC 14.08.2026 96 11.4N 44.8W 1011 291200UTC 14.08.2026 108 12.5N 48.2W 1011 290000UTC 15.08.2026 120 13.8N 51.7W 1012 321200UTC 15.08.2026 132 15.9N 56.4W 1011 380000UTC 16.08.2026 144 16.8N 60.2W 1011 401200UTC 16.08.2026 156 18.9N 63.7W 1009 510000UTC 17.08.2026 168 20.5N 65.9W 1008 35

This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

12Z UKMET: notably further WSW than prior run as it ends as a TS at ~140 miles E of N Leewards moving WNWNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.9N 34.7WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 12.08.2026 72 10.8N 36.0W 1010 260000UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.3N 38.3W 1010 261200UTC 13.08.2026 96 10.7N 40.9W 1010 280000UTC 14.08.2026 108 11.1N 43.9W 1010 291200UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.8N 47.0W 1010 290000UTC 15.08.2026 132 12.9N 50.1W 1010 291200UTC 15.08.2026 144 14.5N 53.5W 1011 320000UTC 16.08.2026 156 16.0N 56.7W 1011 371200UTC 16.08.2026 168 17.4N 59.9W 1010 39

Follow-up: Today’s SOI is -10, which makes the current streak at an amazing 91 days, 2nd only to 1998’s 100 days for longest on record back to 1991. I’m predicting that tomorrow’s will be a +SOI, which would mean the streak ends at 91 days.

Now the further E one is orange (40% within 7 days). The 0Z UKMET is back to developing this (12Z TC was from the further W TW): 0Z UKMETNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.3N 35.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 96 9.1N 36.4W 1010 231200UTC 13.08.2026 108 9.8N 38.0W 1010 280000UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.1N 40.2W 1010 281200UTC 14.08.2026 132 12.6N 42.5W 1010 320000UTC 15.08.2026 144 15.0N 45.6W 1011 331200UTC 15.08.2026 156 17.0N 49.5W 1011 370000UTC 16.08.2026 168 18.3N 53.4W 1012 41

8/8 12Z CFS: not as strong with none 4+ til Sept 4th:

12Z UKNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.0N 53.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 12.08.2026 96 12.0N 53.2W 1012 260000UTC 13.08.2026 108 12.5N 56.2W 1010 281200UTC 13.08.2026 120 12.7N 60.3W 1010 290000UTC 14.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg 0Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.6N 33.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 13.08.2026 132 12.6N 33.9W 1011 340000UTC 14.08.2026 144 13.0N 38.3W 1011 281200UTC 14.08.2026 156 14.1N 42.3W 1011 320000UTC 15.08.2026 168 15.4N 47.2W 1012 36

Due to an inverted trough, heavy showers are occurring in the area moving from off the ocean including here. Rain started just after 8AM. Edit on 8/9: I ended up with ~1” on 8/8, almost all falling between 8AM and 10AM.

July OHC of +2.96 set a new record high back to 1979 breaking old record of +2.56 (Oct 1997)!

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well vs the 2013-24 average! This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well! This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

Although the -SOI streak is up to a whopping 89 days and it will reach the low 90s (2nd longest on record back to 1991 by a large margin to early 1998’s 100 days), there’s a good chance it will finally end early next week short of the 100 day record with at least one smallish +SOI as it now appears. Let’s see what actually happens.