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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Interestingly, since that WCS tweet was made on 5/28/26 showing the then latest WCS PDO (5/27/26) down at -1.40, then near a 6 month low, the WCS PDO has risen nearly 1 in just 25 days while El Niño has gotten much stronger to -0.48:
  2. GaWx
    My progs were right this time: 1+2………3…….3.4…….4 29APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 03JUN2026 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 17JUN2026 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  3. GaWx
    The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall: This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:
  4. GaWx
    The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues to have as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall: This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:
  5. GaWx
    Thanks, Ray. Based on model consensus and even after reducing the avg prog as a BC being that June model run avg has tended to verify too warm, especially Euro, I’m thinking RONI/ONI peaks will likely be at the higher end of your range or warmer. Models are leaning toward an OND peak.
  6. GaWx
    I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there.
  7. GaWx
    I had ~0.05” yesterday evening, which brought me up to ~4.4” MTD.
  8. GaWx
    I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report.
  9. GaWx
    Euro progging peak of impressive +1.4 Oct, which would beat 11/1997 record of +1.3! However, avg IOD has been rising with CC and thus in theory would need to be adjusted down to be comparable and would be < the +1.3 of ‘97. Otherwise, even the adjusted IOD prog could very well be 2nd strongest on record! IOD data back to 1870, which shows the ‘97 record and longterm rise: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data
  10. GaWx
    Further to my post above, the 0Z 5/25 fcast had a mean +3+ for now vs actual <+0.5! These like to overshoot severely:
  11. GaWx
    Keep in mind that these tend to run too high when forecasting extremes out several weeks: Note it’s now <0.5. Compare that to this 6/3 forecast, which had it at +2 for today!
  12. GaWx
    From several showers and a severe warned thunderstorm, I received ~1.75” yesterday. That put me then at ~3.80” MTD. I received more rain overnight of varying intensities and it’s still falling very lightly with constant rain since late last night. I’ll post the total for this later. It will be >0.5”. No more watering for at least awhile! Edit: Thu night into early Fri PM I ended up with ~0.55”, which then put me at ~4.35” MTD.
  13. GaWx
    2026 warmed to +1.2 relative OISST on June 17th, which is 0.1 warmer than the warmest week on record (back to 1982) centered nearest to June 17th, 1997’s +1.1: 2026: +1.2 1997: +1.1 1987: +1.0 2015: +0.9 1982: +0.8 1994: +0.7 1991: +0.6 2002: +0.5 2009: +0.4 2023: +0.4 Data source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  14. GaWx
    For obvious reasons, I’m taking this with a humongous grain and thus assume this won’t verify closely:
  15. GaWx
    I got a 2nd thunderstorm within the last hour. I’ll have a grand total later.
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