GaWx

How? The Euro gives nearly every active SE forum member snow. How often does that actually happen? 0Z EPS members: includes a few Gulf/SE solutions (6 of 50) for the SEmost extent like the op:

What the? Can we stop here?

Folks, are y’all sitting down? Or better yet, lying down? Ok, feast your eyes on the 0Z UKMET!

Kudos to Euro Weeklies for having +PNA switch week of 1/12-8 as far back as this one issued 12/24: 1st run w/notable hint of +PNA; it never looked back/kept strengthening it though it mistakenly had -NAO: Today: strong +PNA, no -NAO Today’s 1/26-2/2 subtly suggesting +PNA may return then: Otherwise, maps today mild for bulk of Feb fwiw. Hoping these will change and end up wrong!

I’m looking forward to cold dominating the next 10 or so days! That 82 F high was a bit much. The cold will be much better for outdoor activities for me.

This 6-10 is a beaut from my perspective!

Are you implying that 2026 will probably be similar to 2017 for the rest of winter in the E US?

OHC continues to rise rapidly:

Comparisons of indices Jan ‘26 to Jan ‘17 1. Jan of 2017 was also at this time in phase 6. But that’s where the similarities end as 2017’s phase 6 was much shorter (lasted <2 days) and it sped all the way around to phase 3 by late month! It may just get to 8 at about the same time. So, MJO starting off similar but ending totally different. 2. PNA similar through Jan 21st but then 2017 went back to +PNA. We’ll see whether 2026 does that. 3. Strong +AO 2017 vs strong -AO 2026. So, AO patterns are opposites. 4. 2017 had a +NAO 1/7-18, but then it turned to a moderate -NAO 1/20-6 before rising to neutral late. 2026: -NAO til today and forecasted to head to weak +NAO for a week+. So, NAOs very different. 5. 2017 had -WPO-EPO most of first 1/2 and then +WPO/+EPO 2nd half vs 2026 having some +WPO/+EPO that’s now turning to -WPO/-EPO, which should last for awhile. So, WPO and EPS very different. In summary, other than ENSO related stuff and PNAs being similar, the other 5 indices are far different. Good luck on getting a similar result to 2017, whatever that result is.

Thanks for posting that. But well before any potential phase 8 late month, the models are near unanimous in predicting phase 6 lasting through Jan 21st. Per the image below, the current phase 6 started on Jan 5th. So, if the models verify well, this could end up as a 17 day long phase 6! How would a 17 day long phase 6 compare to the longest phase 6 on record (since 1974)? -Still not close to the 22 days in the summer of 1984 (7/28-8/18) -But this would obliterate the longest on record fully within met. winter, which is 13 days set in 1999 (1/30-2/11) (also La Niña) -The longest on record fully within Jan is the 11 days of 2005 (1/9-19). -The longest on record fully within Jan during La Niña is the 10 days of 1976 (1/13-22). https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

The models are unanimous in progging a 13+ day long phase 6 (1/9-21+). All that’s needed to have a record long Jan phase 6 is for it to be 12 days. This is consistent with phases 6-7 having had by far the largest # of days in Jan since 2011 (101, 104). OTOH, the # of Jan phase 8/1/2 days since 2011 has been only 42/17/26 days! GEFS has a 2.75 amp peak but it often is too strong: Looking ahead to Feb, phase 7/6 had 134/77 days since 2011 with 8/1/2/3 much lower at 41/30/32/35.

Indeed, the AAM values on your chart of recent history appear to be ~1/2 a SD higher than the CFS initializations often though sometimes they’ve been close. For example, check out the 11/28 CFS initialization of +1, which was at a late Nov. peak: Your chart says 11/28 was near a peak of ~+1.45, which is ~0.45 higher than the CFS init.: Also, CFS initialized 12/19 at ~-1.25 vs your chart then at ~-0.7, meaning yours was then ~0.55 higher than the CFS init.: But OTOH: CFS initialized 1/3 barely <0 vs your chart then also barely <0: I don’t know anything about the “officialness”/accuracy of your chart. But I can say based on these comparisons that the CFS on average appears to often though not always initialize ~0.5 SDs lower than your chart’s “actuals”.

Latest CFS AAM forecast: pretty close to prior one suggesting rise to modestly + in early Feb:

The dense fog here is the worst I’ve seen anywhere in years and it’s only 9:43 PM!

I just counted the # of days in Jans 1975-89 by MJO phase: there are stark differences vs Jans 2011-25 as was suspected:# of days per phase Jans 1975-89 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase1: 39 (8%)2: 67 (14%)3: 67 (14%)4: 57 (12%)5: 46 (10%)6: 51 (11%)7: 63 (14%)8: 75 (16%)Compare to this that I posted yesterday:# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase1: 17 (only 4%)2: 26 (only 6%)3: 67 (14%)4: 51 (11%)5: 57 (12%)6: 101 (a whopping 22%)7: 104 (a whopping 22%)8: 42 (9%)So, what changed the most in Jan when comparing 1975-89 to 2011-25?# of 8-1-2 Jan days dropped sharply# of 6-7 Jan days rose sharplyJan 1975-898-1-2: 39%6-7: 25%Jan 2011-258-1-2: 18%6-7: 44%So for Jans when comparing 2011-25 to 1975-89, the # of 8-1-2 days dropped way down from 181 to only 85 (drop of 96 days) while the # of 6-7 days rose sharply from 114 to 205 (rise of 91 days)! Phase 8 went from having the largest # of days of any phase Jan 1975-89 to having only 40% of the largest # of days of any phase Jan 2011-25! A quite possible explanation is the PDO cycle in conjunction with the strong W Pac warm pool. So, if the mean PDO would go positive, maybe Jan MJO dist. will revert back to 1975-89. Then again, the strong warm pool may be mainly due to CC?? If so, would it be easily reversible with a PDO change? A lot of this would seemingly be hard to answer. ————— *Edit: Check this out Avg PDO Jan 1975-89: avg +5.25/15 = +0.35 # of Jans: 8+, 3 neutral, 4- Jan 2011-25: avg -11.59/15 = -0.77 # of Jans: 3+, 1 neutral, 11- So, avg Jan PDO dropped sharply from +0.35 in 1975-89 to -0.77 in 2011-25. @donsutherland1@bluewave@40/70 Benchmark@snowman19