GaWx

Arctic ice area not too bad currently with it near the 2013-24 avg as of now:

12Z UKMET is, of course, stronger due to a stronger initialization. This, like the 0Z, only skirts LA and like that one comes in just SW of Galveston hours 57-60 while highest winds are 45 knots/solid TS: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.07.2026 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 85.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.8N 85.9W 997 52 0000UTC 22.07.2026 12 29.3N 87.4W 996 43 1200UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.4N 88.3W 996 41 0000UTC 23.07.2026 36 29.2N 89.8W 995 40 1200UTC 23.07.2026 48 29.1N 92.1W 995 47 0000UTC 24.07.2026 60 29.0N 95.1W 997 45 1200UTC 24.07.2026 72 27.9N 98.2W 1003 29 0000UTC 25.07.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

Good question. I don’t know but they’re both fascinating to see. ————————— Aside: I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems?

The coldest on record DMI 80N+ temps continue! This started in late May and hasn’t stopped! I once again just checked every year back to 1958:

The OHC per this is now >+2.5 due to a rapid rise! Due to possible interpolation in the near future IF this were hitting a (temporary) max, this could be cooled on future graphs. But even if so, July has almost definitely hit a new high for the event: ***I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems? @Wow

Chris, I find it fascinating that the previous warmest was in August, another winter month! Do you know if that was also in El Niño?

The -SOI streak just hit 72 days, which is tied with 1997 for the 2nd longest -SOI streak since the daily record start in 1991! There’s a near 100% chance that it will reach a new 2nd longest streak of 73 days tomorrow: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 62kt at 11:55z

To set the record straight, 25/26 rather than 23/24 is the winter that I said that @bluewavewas too harsh on as regards the 8/1/25 Euro and mid-July ‘25 CFS performance overall for the Conus. They forecasted ~+2F anomalies for the Conus averaged out geographically, which was ~36F. I posted them here: That means they were predicting the 7th or 8th warmest winter on record back to 1895. It ended up at 37.1F, which is ~3F above both the 1993-2016 climo base of the Euro and the 1991-2020 climo base of the CFS and the 2nd warmest on record. That’s a decent performance by these two imho, especially with DJF being ~6 months out! They missed by only ~1F and thus still predicted quite a warm winter even though not warm enough:

0Z UKMET: significantly stronger than last few runs and not as far N track allowing it to avoid LA for the most part and actually landfall just S of Galveston as TS, where Joe Bastardi said he may be hanging out: GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2026 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 86.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.5N 86.2W 1005 32 1200UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.7N 86.4W 1001 42 0000UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.3N 87.1W 1001 37 1200UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 87.6W 1002 37 0000UTC 23.07.2026 48 28.9N 89.0W 1002 42 1200UTC 23.07.2026 60 29.0N 90.3W 1004 37 0000UTC 24.07.2026 72 28.5N 92.6W 1000 40 1200UTC 24.07.2026 84 29.1N 94.9W 1006 38 0000UTC 25.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 85.9W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern semicircle. There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to become the dominant steering influence which should induce a west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction, on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will increase during the next couple of days. This should limit intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch

12Z UKMET is slightly stronger than 0Z with it showing 35 knots/barely TS this time before it dissipates by hour 60 moving W into LA, a similar track to 0Z/6Z runs. It then comes out S of LA but in a weakened state below TD status as it heads into the Galveston vicinity: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 85.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.4N 85.5W 1008 23 0000UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.8N 85.9W 1006 25 1200UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.7N 86.3W 1005 35 0000UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 86.9W 1004 33 1200UTC 22.07.2026 48 30.1N 87.6W 1006 29 0000UTC 23.07.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

Do you have a guess for the +IOD peak?

The weeklies keep coming in lower than my guesses as Nino 3.4 came in at only +1.4 for last week vs my +1.5 guess. This is surprisingly low when considering that it is OISST based. It is for the prior week averaged out, but still +1.4 looks low when comparing to this relative OISST graph. The avg of last week, the last 7 dots on the image below, is actually ~+1.6!

Thanks, Don. It’s very warm there, no doubt, indicative of a strong Nino. I prefer to compare the relative weeklies for the best apples to apples comparison to the strength of past events due to the GW effect on tropical oceans skewing the straight ENSO anomalies higher in more recent years: For the week centered on 7/15/26, the relative region 1+2 anomaly was at +2.8, a rise from the +2.6 of the prior week and the highest yet for this event. How does +2.8 compare to past events back to 1982 in mid July? 2023: +2.8 2015: +2.3 1997: +3.7 1982: +0.5 So, going back to 1982, 2026’s +2.8 is tied with 2023 for 2nd warmest anomaly in mid-July on a relative basis with 1997 being the warmest: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt