GaWx

137 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A LIGHT GLAZE. * WHERE...A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. * WHEN...FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...ROADS, AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PIEDMONT TRIAD EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. ELSEWHERE, A CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

Yeah, that’s better for NC than your area. But you should like this next one better for your area but it’s from a followup system, not the system this thread is addressing:

0Z Euro:

Euro

What’s your definition of “winter is over”? I’m going to enjoy the next 7 days of no torch with ups and downs, low dewpoints, and the progged highest temp of only ~69. The period should avg a bit BN and this should mean great walking wx. Afterward, I’m hoping any possible torch (say upper 70s to low 80s) is fairly tame and shortlived. Hopefully there’d still be lots of lows down in the 40s. Looking further ahead: although the Euro Weeklies maintain a -PNA and don’t have a -NAO/-AO, they cool it off to NN last week of Feb. Winter’s always my favorite season even if not cold, mainly because I enjoy the lack of bugs and humidity as well as the big swings that other seasons typically don’t have.

You’re right that I was thinking more from a E US and moreso from a SE US perspective and should have stated that. My bad. I just edited the post. See if you agree more with the new wording. For Michigan and all of the E US, it looks mild through ~Feb 20th. After that, when model skill is very low, it’s much more up in the air.

Today’s Euro Weeklies are again pretty ugly looking from an E US and especially SE US perspective with a -PNA/BN H5 in SW Canada dominating the weeks after Feb 10th. Also, the -AO and -NAO essentially go away. This -PNA would be a sharp reversal to the opposite of the prior 4 week long beautiful (for the E US) +PNA dominated pattern, which I’ll be able to enjoy for another week. Hoping this -PNA doesn’t last too long and that the model is wrong on it lasting for weeks. *Edited

The Jan ‘26 30 mb QBO came in at -25.51, Jan’s 2nd lowest on record to only 2015’s -26.7: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data Based on the patterns since 1948, there’s a very high chance (I’d say 95%) that it will be positive by next winter, and there’s a better than even chance for the next +QBO period to start by late summer.

12Z Euro: looks good in the Triad

Thanks, Chris! 1. Indeed, it’s been such a warm DJ in the W 1/2! Thus, geographically as you showed, that makes it 7th warmest for the contiguous US going back 131 years. 2. But based strictly on population weighting or gas heating weighting, which are great measures of energy usage for heating, I’m sure you know it hasn’t been warm at all as it has been ~1F BN in the lower 48 thanks to the heavy pop. weighting of the E Midwest/Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic/NE’s ~5BN easily outweighing the much more sparsely populated W 1/3 of the US’ ~6 AN. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/hfstwpws.txt 3. Related to projected upcoming energy usage: yesterday’s natural gas price plunged an historic 25.7%, by far the most in one day since it started trading in 1990!! This was mainly due to the much warmer models in the E US yesterday going out ~3 weeks vs how they looked on Friday, the prior trading day. Was it way overdone in relation to progged demand drop? Of course it was! Here are the largest NG drops in one trading day since 1990: -25.7% 2/2/2026 -19.1% 3/18/2004 -17.5% 11/15/2018 -17.0% 6/30/2022 -16.7% 6/14/2022

0Z Euro targets RDU with a nice hit:

The major indices on 1/31/26, the day of the majority of the storm, were near ideal overall: - strong +PNA: +1.4 - strong -AO: -2.9 - weak -NAO: -0.5 - moderate -EPO: -1.0 - moderate -WPO: -0.7 - MJO: moderate phase 7 (I had thought it would be phase 8)

Natural Gas Prices Plummet as Weather Looks Warmer Updated Feb. 2, 2026 at 3:07 pm ET 1502 ET – Natural gas futures drop 26%, the largest one-day percentage decline since 1995, on warmer weather forecasts and expectations of inventory buildup. “Did the data trend warm enough to justify a more than $1 plunge? Of course not,” NatGasWeather.com says in a note, adding that natural gas price moves “often overshoot.” The Eastern half of the U.S. is expected to warm “well above normal,” the forecaster says, while production recovers after freeze-offs last week. The most-active contract closes at $3.237/mmBtu. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani) https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-pull-back-after-weather-driven-rally-4f77624d?

Don, Do you mean the WxBell 850 mb maps? What daily data are you referring to? Be careful with their 2m temp maps because I’ve been saying they’re colder than ECMWF’s in house data.

Today’s Euro Weeklies are if anything even worse than yesterday’s if you want a cold pattern in the E US. Also, the 10 mb has pulled up somewhat on the mid Feb reversal chance. Cue the folks that say the EW shouldn’t run daily lol, which is irrelevant unless you’d prefer to keep your head in the sand: