GaWx

Check out the 12Z UKMET: gets her all the way to 23.7N, 56.4W and still moving WSW not too far N of the MDR: TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 41.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 24.09.2026 0 30.0N 41.2W 1014 28 0000UTC 25.09.2026 12 30.2N 42.1W 1015 25 1200UTC 25.09.2026 24 30.3N 43.1W 1015 27 0000UTC 26.09.2026 36 30.3N 43.7W 1015 25 1200UTC 26.09.2026 48 30.2N 44.4W 1014 26 0000UTC 27.09.2026 60 30.2N 44.8W 1016 21 1200UTC 27.09.2026 72 30.1N 44.8W 1015 22 0000UTC 28.09.2026 84 29.8N 44.6W 1016 20 1200UTC 28.09.2026 96 28.6N 44.9W 1016 22 0000UTC 29.09.2026 108 27.4N 46.0W 1014 23 1200UTC 29.09.2026 120 26.2N 47.6W 1013 24 0000UTC 30.09.2026 132 24.9N 49.6W 1012 26 1200UTC 30.09.2026 144 24.2N 52.0W 1011 29 0000UTC 01.10.2026 156 23.8N 54.3W 1011 27 1200UTC 01.10.2026 168 23.7N 56.4W 1012 27

This is for Nolo, which is a threat to the Big Island of Hawaii: 000 WTPA42 PHFO 241450 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026 Satellite images indicate that Nolo is gradually becoming better organized, with very deep convection in a curved band on the southern and western side of the circulation. Additionally, a GPM pass from overnight indicated that an inner core is forming, although the eastern side is fragmented. Intensity estimates are rising, and the current wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of the lower subjective and higher objective values. Nolo has not moved much during the last several hours but should begin to move northward and north-northeastward later today due to a mid-latitude trough dropping over the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The trough is forecast to move westward by Saturday with a building ridge north of the main Hawaiian Islands, causing a sharp westward turn this weekend. The big question is how close does Nolo get before making that turn, with notable run-to-run inconsistencies in much of the guidance. Similar to the last cycle, the bulk of the models have shifted slightly northward, and the new NHC forecast is moved in that direction. This remains a more uncertain forecast than normal given the large unresolved north-south spread, with other possible complicating terrain influences of the Big Island (like we saw with Hurricane Lala last month). Therefore, the long-range portion of the forecast is essentially unchanged. With the formation of an inner core, conditions appear to be coming together for rapid intensification given the other conducive environmental factors of warm SSTs, low shear and high mid-level moisture. Nolo is likely to become a hurricane by tonight and reach major hurricane strength as it nears the Big Island on Saturday. The new forecast is raised from the previous one, just below the HCCA aid, which has done well this year in these strengthening episodes. Note that a track closer to the Big Island could substantially increase the threat of damaging winds, particularly over higher terrain, along exposed ridges, and in areas downwind of the ridges. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.9N 156.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.2N 156.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.1N 155.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 17.1N 155.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.8N 155.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 18.0N 156.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 18.1N 158.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 19.0N 162.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 21.6N 164.4W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

From NHC: Resilient Fay has strengthened this morning. Deep convective curved bands have developed both on the west and east sides of the cyclone, and a small cold cloud top deep burst of convection is persisting over the surface center. Based on the improved cloud pattern and an increase in the Dvorak satellite intensity estimated from TAFB, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt. Fay remains over warm ocean waters and a favorable upper-level wind environment. Only a relatively stable, dry surrounding atmosphere is preventing Fay from strengthening significantly. By the weekend, deep-layer shear is expected to increase, which should induce a weakening trend. Subsequently, Fay is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low. Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/5 kt. This general motion should continue with a slight reduction in forward speed through dissipation on Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the skilled HFIP HCCA and GDMI TC ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 29.8N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.8N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 29.7N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 29.6N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 29.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 29.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

When was the comparable last nasty cold core nor’easter that occurred in your area as early as late Sept? The ones I recall off the top of my head for your area waited at least til Oct and were mainly in the latter half of Oct to boot.

*Fwiw* recent 3 day (12 run) CFSv2 runs for Feb have been cooling back down again. The coldest I’ve seen was the very cold Aug 7-9th mean. The warmest was the recently posted Sep 16-18th mean. The newest (Sep 21-23rd) is right in between those:

Thanks. Do you see it having a chance to transition from cold core, which we all agree it will start as, to ST status?

Then the NHC should be adding it to its TWOs since those address the chance for both T and ST development. Adding it to its TWOs has been suggested by both JB and @vortex95

This from the 0Z Euro suite per pro met@vortex95shows a 70-80% chance for tropical development! How do you explain this?

0Z UKMET goes NNE to eastern end of LI and then into SE New England while weakening substantially Mon-Tue

Thanks. But how do you explain a 1000/500 mb thickness max of >576 dm and 700 mb height max both at the center if it is cold core? That almost has to be warm core.

Joe Bastardi, who I often don’t agree with, continues to insist this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it thus should be named. He says the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving it a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm (well above 79F) due largely to GW. Per JB, evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, he posted the Euro having a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this projected weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. He said tides may go as high as 3-6 feet AN at NYC! Does anyone here recall a purely cold-core nor’easter in this region this early in the fall? Aren’t those usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm?

As I posted above, JB is insisting this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it should be named. He agrees with you that the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm due largely to GW. More evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, the Euro has a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. You mentioned that you don’t recall a nor’easter like this in Sept. I don’t either. They’re usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm. He said tides may go to 3-6 feet AN!

“Lame” is good for us SE folks, especially those of us with elderly loved ones. Many in the SE US, even well inland, have had a very rough 2016-24. I was heavily affected by 5 storms. I’ll always take the very rare quiet season over that, especially because it will likely not be quiet next year.

Walt, My nephew has a trip planned to NYC for Thu-Sun. I don’t know where he’ll be staying, where he’ll be going, and whether or not he’ll be that close to water (probably not). I’d like your opinion. Is the risk for major disruptions in NYC high enough to make you feel he should consider postponing this trip? Or should he still go there? Thanks.

Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city?