Jump to content

GaWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    18,686

  • Joined

About GaWx

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

Recent Profile Visitors

44,735 profile views
  1. GaWx
    I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy. I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.
  2. GaWx
    Latest OISST 1+2 anomaly is +2.5C (non-relative). That tells me that relative 1+2 is at a pretty hefty ~+2.0:
  3. GaWx
    I’ve gotten some rain from thunderstorms this evening with possibly more to come. It hasn’t been that much so far (<0.25” I think). I’ll get the totals in the morning.
  4. GaWx
    Levi Cowan gives great updates. Here’s the 1st: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/2060836481128874201
  5. GaWx
    Based on the past after strong -SOI periods, 3.4 SSTs tend to start warming ~10-24 days after the start of these periods. The last 20 days have averaged way down at -18 (and it hasn’t yet shown it is ending soon). Thus I’m expecting 3.4 to resume good warming at almost anytime after the last 2 weeks of little change. Plus the models have strong warming resuming in June. Thus I expect 3.4 to be several 10ths warmer by a week from now.
  6. GaWx
    Check out the 40s DPs in RDU/GSO!
  7. GaWx
    Today’s CFS has a record high RONI starting in JAS and going through NDJ before dropping at a record quick pace to only 3rd highest in DJF. I’m talking about records for each respective 3 month period, not overall. On monthly basis, it has records Jul-Dec! But then Jan falls so fast that it is then 0.5 cooler than ‘83 and is only 6th warmest behind ‘83, ‘92, ‘98, ‘58, and ,’16. Feb also is 6th warmest with it a whopping 0.63 cooler than ‘92!
  8. GaWx
    Suzook had more rain this week than I’ve had in ‘26!
  9. GaWx
    4/13/26 CFS RONI peak +2 (OND): 5/30/26 CFS RONI peak just under +3! Record peak is +2.5: 5/30 CFS DJF +2.22. That wouldn’t be record for DJF as ‘83 +2.5 and ‘92 +2.3. So, it’s actually showing a record rapid cooldown OND to DJF of 0.75 vs current record of 0.62 (2002-3).
  10. GaWx
    Besides the MEI, I feel that the SOI (which may be part of the MEI…Is it?) remains a good measure of the phase and strength of ENSO because it is a calculation based on SLP differences between two points thousands of miles apart and thus doesn’t seem to be influenced by CC. In essence a relative SOI is likely not needed. Of course, because it is so volatile and subject to day to day randomness, it’s best looked at in 30+ day averages. Then again, if, say avg. Australian SLPs have been affected by CV differently from how Tahiti SLPs have been affected by CC, then even SOIs would need an adjustment. Other opinions?
  11. GaWx
    The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.
  12. GaWx
    Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June: 2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN 3rd week in June: wetter than normal:
  13. GaWx
    You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.
  14. GaWx
    The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.
  15. GaWx
    Also, keep in mind that a -1.40 WCS daily PDO is generally equivalent to a sub-2 NOAA daily PDO. This differential has been the case since I started following WCS daily PDOs years ago.
×
×
  • Create New...