GaWx

Today’s weekly release has about as expected (due to the temporary pause in the warming) Nino 3.4 steady vs the prior week at +0.4. Nino 4 also remained steady at +0.5. Nino 3 rose slightly from +0.5 to +0.6. The more volatile (because much smaller) Nino 1+2 bounced back from +0.7 to +1.0: Midweek date…..1+2……..3…..….3.4..…..4 01APR2026 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 08APR2026 1.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 15APR2026 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 22APR2026 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.5 29APR2026 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 06MAY2026 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5

We did finally get another 1012+ mb today at Darwin though only barely (1012.15) helping to bring today’s SOI down to -9.25, lowest in a week though still not a strong -SOI. However, Darwin SLP is forecasted to fall back very shortly. Looking ahead, the GFS not surprisingly (being that no other model had it) took away that tiny sfc low near Tahiti from its 5/12-13 maps and thus there won’t be those very strong -SOIs that an actual low would have generated. However, all of the models have general notably low pressure at Tahiti 5/14-6. That should result in notable -SOIs for those days. But because Darwin SLPs are also then progged to be somewhat BN, these won’t be as low as they could have been. Although Tahiti SLPs have been El Ninoish (- SLP anomalies) and will continue to be overall, Darwin SLPs still aren’t progged to be notably El Ninoish (+ anomalies). To get that, the N portion of the cold sfc highs coming from the cold regions to the south needs to extend more strongly further N into N Australia to get Darwin SLPs to go AN. They are forecast to rise back up modestly mid to late next week in N Australia on the N end of chilly high pressure, but it remains to be seen if they’ll rise that much at Darwin to result in a notably -SOI period then.

One year ago: do Atlanta area, other N GA, and W Carolina peeps remember what happened? It was quite an unusual event and a pretty big deal! Edit: Answer: Earthquake on 5/10/25 that shook from ATL area to E TN/W Carolinas @suzook

Here’s the RONI plumes that Ben tweeted that @snowman19just posted: https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/2053479903761498266/photo/1 -4 of these 10 would be a new record RONI (goes back to 1950): CMCC, BoM, JMA, NCEP (CFSv2 keeps rising and is now +2.7 for seasonal peak as Prof. Eliot just tweeted). -Euro is close to a 1982-3 redux -OTOH, the UKMET, which has performed as one of the better models over the years, doesn’t even reach +2.0 for RONI monthly and peaks at only +2.3 for ONI monthly. So, the UKMET still isn’t even close to the record +2.7 monthly/+2.5 seasonal record RONI peaks of 1982-3 even though it appears to be a couple of tenths warmer than its prior run. -So, whereas the majority of the better models suggest at least a 1982-3 redux is a good possibility, the UKMET is still ~0.7 cooler than 1982-3 on a RONI basis even with this slightly warmer run. That along with certain May model runs (like Euro longterm and BoM more recently) still being subject to notable warm bias are enough to still keep me wary of the admittedly rising possibility that 2026-7 will at least get close to 1982-3. The chance of a 1982-3 redux or even warmer is rising but is still very far from a slam dunk. OTOH, getting a RONI super-strong peak is now ~60% chance in my mind. I’d have it higher than 60% if the UKMET weren’t still not reaching super even for a single month.

Points taken, Chuck. Thank you. And further south down in the SE only 2015-6 averaged downright mild due to Dec. The others were pretty close to normal or even cold if you were to include 1957-8 and 1965-6.

Indeed, pre-1948 were largely reconstructed but Webb’s table as well as JMA (which calculates them a bit differently) both also have 1877-8 and 1888-9 as super Ninos and many assume they really were without questioning them. His table has 1911-2 peaking only at +1.2 and 1914-5 only at +0.9, both way lower than 1877-8 and 1888-9. JMA has 1911-12 slightly stronger but still only at +1.3. It has 1914-5 at only +0.5. So, the odds are high that 1911-2 and even more-so that 1914-5 weren’t super Ninos.

I got only ~0.08” last night and only ~.01” during the daytime today, both pretty disappointing vs expectations. MTD is ~1.3” as of 5/9, ~1.2” of which fell one week ago (5/2) with a nice soaking 18 hour rain. ————— Edit at 1:20 PM on May 10th: This morning after midnight (on 5/10) I once again got only a few hundredths, which puts me at ~1.35” MTD.

Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

Chuck’s clearly referring to the strong -SOI of these two. I can add the even stronger -SOI of 1977-8: But keep in mind that these 3’s ONI peaks were only +0.8 to +1.2 per Webb or only weak to low end moderate: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

It’s no secret that I’ve never been a fan of human bias of any kind (for something, against something, etc.) affecting the content and tone of communication, but unfortunately that’s human nature to an extent. I think it’s best to talk about things going on whether you like that they’re occurring or not rather than talking only about things you like.

My area got only a couple of hundredths today (all this morning), much less than expected and thus disappointing. But I’m still thankful we got 1.2” on Saturday (5/2) and am also looking forward to weekend prospects for good rains. It’s overall still going in the right direction.

My local area has received only very light rain so far (couple of hundredths at most) today. However, there’s supposedly the bulk of it to come.

Although not for all areas, of course, I feel that next week’s map may show notable improvement (say at least one drought category) in portions of the SE. Besides the current system, there’s more waiting in the wings for much of the SE Sat-Mon, especially S areas! The N 1/2 of AL was the only area on the SE drought map that showed notable improvement.

Keep in mind that the heavy rains covering much of the SE US since yesterday are of course not taken into account since these weekly maps are based on data being submitted no later than 8AM two days ago. Only the N 1/2 of AL showed improvement.

Looking at official rainfall totals, a large portion of AL, TN, N and C GA, NW SC to CAE, and NC including CLT received ample to very heavy (flooding) rainfall since yesterday! Fantastic news regarding the drought and kudos to the Euro Weeklies to being on top of this potential for several weeks.——————This is just from FFC:MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEE ANYWHERE FROM 0.5" TO 1.5" OF PRECIP WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS OF 2" TO 4". 1 LOCATION HAS SEEN 5.29" (CSG).