GaWx

Back to back 90+ at KSAV with 3rd so far this spring. Today’s was a doozy at 93!

Great news on today’s EW for short term drought relief 4/27-5/3: Yesterday’s run: Today’s run is even wetter:

Keep in mind that these are straight 1991-2020 anomalies rather than RONI equivalent anomalies that are relative to warm average global tropical anomalies. So, there’d still be some blue if that were the case being that there’s ~0.5C diff.

The 5+ is centered pretty far west (140-160 W, which is west central 3.4. Hoping that’s a sign that El Niño will be center to west based like Cansips suggests and not east based like NMME shows.

Thanks, Yaakov. Hoping the AZ forecast busts way too high as I’d like a quieter ACE for a change.

Based on the above maps for Jan, I’m going to consider renting a place in Anniston, AL, just for that month.

I’m targeting November for the change to consistently wetter than normal in much of the SE, which is typical for strong El Niño autumns. Until then lots of watering is anticipated during dry periods. But good news is that for well before then, the model consensus is showing a pattern change to wetter than normal in ~10 days and going into early May in my general area, where the drought is the worst in the SE. Fingers crossed that from then through Oct will be closer to normal overall. Latest Euro Weeklies for Apr 27-May 3:

I got a quick email reply, but it contains bad news regarding getting QBO updates: “Hi The QBO we have is produced using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis which has ended production. We are trying to determine how we will compute this time series. See https://psl.noaa.gov/news/2026/r1datanotice.html Cathy S. Your PSL Data Team”

1. March ‘26 QBO: I just emailed the PSL 2. More on the 3.4 warming: these are straight rather than relative +0.531 for latest OISST, a rise from +0.15 just 4 days ago and implies a RONI having risen back to just above 0.0. Thus despite this rise, I still see almost no way April will average up at +0.6 for RONI, which is what BoM is forecasting: Latest CDAS, which has a cold bias: +0.25 vs ~0 just 2 days ago

The EWs have cooled considerably for Apr 20-26 in the NE vs 5 days ago: 5 days ago: mild NE Today’s: cool NE

Have you changed from the “Global Warmer” to the “US Warmer”? The US has only 2% of the world’s surface area and only 6% of the world’s land surface area and that’s including Alaska. This is the same argument used against those talking about how hot the US was in the 1930s summers.

Do you have Canada by chance?

It’s the 15th and still no March QBO has been released. What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on? It never has taken more than a few days into the new month to release it.

Nino 3.4 SSTa levels have finally started rising during the last 2 days, a 0.2C increase. Often there’s a delayed response to strong -SOI levels as they usually don’t produce SST rises immediately (reminder: these are straight rather than relative but the point is the rise):

Tip, Thanks for your reply. We know that the Arctic has warmed considerably more than middle latitudes, especially in winter. Thus, the contrast between the avg Arctic temp. and the avg mid latitude temp has lowered, which has reduced the avg speed of the polar jet. Thus per the source noted below: “A slower and more contorted jet stream allows cold air to move further south and warm air to move further north, and it also allows weather systems to persist longer than usual. Under these circumstances, episodes of severe cold or protracted heat, as the UK experienced in spring and summer 2018 respectively, become more likely.” https://theconversation.com/arctic-breakdown-what-climate-change-in-the-far-north-means-for-the-rest-of-us-123309#:~:text=The exceptional rate of Arctic ( the,and determines the paths of weather systems. But I still have to wonder if this phenomenon along with the up to 3F warmer globe were strong enough factors on their own to result in the W US heatwave being a record producer or would it without CC still have been a record producer but just at a lower level? I don’t see how this can be proven one way or the other. With the extreme heat so much hotter than the prior record, that would be quite the feat for CC’s influence. So, I’m at least for now maintaining what I said on April 3rd: “had there been no GW the US still could have had their warmest month since the late 1970s but with not as warm temps.” All I said on April 3rd was “could”. After all, one would have to prove that it “could not” to conclude that I’m wrong. Fair enough?