GaWx

Impressive -NAO on the way:

I don’t know whether or not this was posted and figured this is as good place as any to post it. There’s a major GFS upgrade (v17) coming in Oct, which includes among many other things upgrades to its MJO forecasting:The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is proposing to upgrade the NWS operational Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) from v16 to v17 in October 2026. This upgrade will transition the system to a fully coupled Earth-system modeling framework for global weather prediction, improved model forecast performance, and expanded, enhanced products that cover all components of the Earth system. The NWS is seeking comments on the proposed changes to GFSv17 through May 15, 2026. GFSv17 introduces a coupled Earth-system model with components of the atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice, and waves. - An increased horizontal resolution from C768 (13 km) to C1152 (9 km)using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamic core. - Introduction of fractional grids along oceanic coastlines. - Improved atmospheric and land surface parameterization schemes https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/pns26-29_Science_for_GFSv17.pdf

Record tied today at KSAV at 93, 2nd 93 in a row and 3rd 90+ in a row.

Today’s Euro Weeklies almost as wet as yesterday’s for 4/27-5/3 in SE. This is ~1.1-1.7” for the SE averaged out. Fingers crossed. I’d like to stop irrigating for awhile. Plus we have restrictions.

At KSAV, they’ve had their driest Jan 1-Apr 17 (3.3”) and 2nd driest Sep 1-Apr 17 (9.9”) to 1931-2 on record back to 1871-2: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

Current RONi equivalent is ~+0.1 though it’s risen ~0.4 the last 4 days. So, in a few days it would be up a few more tenths if the same rise rate were to hold. How does +0.1 compare to RONI equivalent for the other 3? 1982/97: +.0.4 2015: +0.9 but it had a head start vs others So, it could be near 82/97 soon IF the rapid rise continues. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

The cold biased CDAS 3.4 is still rising rapidly as it is now up to +0.404, a rise of ~0.1/day the last 4. Equivalent RONI is ~-0.1 although bc RONI is probably ~+0.1:

Back to back 90+ at KSAV with 3rd so far this spring. Today’s was a doozy at 93!

Great news on today’s EW for short term drought relief 4/27-5/3: Yesterday’s run: Today’s run is even wetter:

Keep in mind that these are straight 1991-2020 anomalies rather than RONI equivalent anomalies that are relative to warm average global tropical anomalies. So, there’d still be some blue if that were the case being that there’s ~0.5C diff.

The 5+ is centered pretty far west (140-160 W, which is west central 3.4. Hoping that’s a sign that El Niño will be center to west based like Cansips suggests and not east based like NMME shows.

Thanks, Yaakov. Hoping the AZ forecast busts way too high as I’d like a quieter ACE for a change.

Based on the above maps for Jan, I’m going to consider renting a place in Anniston, AL, just for that month.

I’m targeting November for the change to consistently wetter than normal in much of the SE, which is typical for strong El Niño autumns. Until then lots of watering is anticipated during dry periods. But good news is that for well before then, the model consensus is showing a pattern change to wetter than normal in ~10 days and going into early May in my general area, where the drought is the worst in the SE. Fingers crossed that from then through Oct will be closer to normal overall. Latest Euro Weeklies for Apr 27-May 3:

I got a quick email reply, but it contains bad news regarding getting QBO updates: “Hi The QBO we have is produced using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis which has ended production. We are trying to determine how we will compute this time series. See https://psl.noaa.gov/news/2026/r1datanotice.html Cathy S. Your PSL Data Team”