GaWx

Thanks. I didn’t include 72 and 97 because they were during a different part of the QBO cycle. 72: at the end of a negative phase (far different) 97: start of a new negative phase ( not nearly as far off as 72 but still off enough to already go <0 in Jan and I’m expecting +8 through Feb. All of the other 5 analogs were +QBO through Feb.)

It’s not a matter of “if” because it’s a certainty. Also that favors E US warmth in December as @snowman19has emphasized. Dec of 2015, 2006, 1987, 1982, and 1957 were all mild in the E US (other than 1957 being NN in the SE).

Thanks! I just got on my PC and can see the updating table. For whatever reason, when I do it on my phone, it requires a download of the data. I don’t get why they can’t have it more accessible like for the PSL link. Anyway, this NOAA 30 mb update for Mar 26+ is following the general pattern of the ATMOS Hub values along with the sometimes slightly faster transition to positive phase in addition to sig. higher amp on both ends as I mentioned. So this essentially confirms what ATMOS Hub showed us. Therefore due to the easier access to the ATMOS Hub data on my cell, I’m probably going to use ATMOS Hub at least as often as NOAA’s now harder to see on cellphone data. Plus I like ATMOS’ excellent graphic showing the entire atmosphere and how it progresses with the QBO cycle possibly even during mid month thus giving us a little bit of heads up that the monthly tables don’t show: CPC vs ATMOS (rounded) Mar -17 vs -31 Apr -9 vs -7 May -2 vs +6 June +4 vs +8 July +9 vs +13 Aug +11 vs +12 Sep +13 vs +18

Thanks 1. It being the driest time of year means it isn’t all that unusual. 2. Oct is typically too early for the Nino STJ moisture as that usually doesn’t get going til close to Nov or often not til Nov, itself. That’s what the Euro Werklies are suggesting.

Where was the second one? How strong was the one that hit Fayetteville?

EF2 from feederband, which was just ahead of a cold front, from remnants of Isaias in Duplin County, NC yesterday (10/11/26)!

Surveys done for 4 GA/SC Saturday 10/10/26 tornadoes produced by a super-cell thunderstorm: 3 EF-1 and 1 EF-0 -Fortunately no deaths or injuries -2 of 4 caused structural and/or automobile damage -All 4 caused notable tree damage https://www.weather.gov/chs/Tornadoes-October2026

EF2 from feederband, which was just ahead of a cold front, from remnants of Isaias in Duplin County, NC yesterday (10/11/26)!

Surveys done for 4 GA/SC Saturday 10/10/26 tornadoes directly related to the influence of post-tropical Isaias: 3 EF-1 and 1 EF-0 -Fortunately no deaths or injuries -2 of 4 caused structural and/or automobile damage -All 4 caused notable tree damage https://www.weather.gov/chs/Tornadoes-October2026

Following up on my last post (QBO): Based on my expectation of each of DJF being at +8+ QBO and also within a mature +QBO phase as opposed to near the start of it, here are the best QBO/ENSO analogs in order of quality taking into account the timing within the +QBO phase, the QBO amp, and the Nino strength: -2015-6 strongest analog: ~identical QBO timing/similar QBO amp, super-Nino -1982-3 super-Nino and similar QBO amp but QBO 3 month later start of + phase -1957-8 not quite super-Nino, QBO 2 month earlier start of + phase and weaker JF amp -1987-8 Nino only mod & 2nd year and QBO 3 month later start of + phase -2006-7 easily weakest of these analogs because only weak Nino and QBO 2 month earlier start of + phase along with only +1 Feb QBO

I agree about 30 mb being off in amplitude but the patterns as you’ll see below are very similar. Thus, that allows me to still predict with a very high level of confidence that a solid +QBO is in store for all of this winter. Here are the tabular 30 mb QBO values since Jan ‘25 for the table that stopped updating (PSL): 2025 12.11 10.55 11.82 6.94 -4.59 -13.72 -19.99 -22.28 -24.26 -24.65 -25.35 -26.92 2026 -25.51 -23.13 To compare, here are the tabular 30 mb values from the QBO link that @EasternLIposted this morning for the still updating site (ATMO) (bolded are the ones we can’t compare to old table, 3/26+) 2025 10.3 7.3 8.4 4.7 -16.5 -25.4 -27.8 -29.2 -30.5 -30.8 -30.0 -29.7. 2026 -29.2 -31.2 -30.9 -7.0 5.7 7.5 13.3 11.5 17.6 ATMO graph closeup for 2023+: jibes 100% with their textual values (actually the entire graph back to 1953 jibes): My observations in comparing the 30 mb tables of ATMO to PSL since 1953: -ATMO sometimes is slightly faster than PSL in switching phases, but the average is only a half month faster in switching from positive to negative (minimal). So, phase switching times are very similar. -ATMO almost always lower than PSL when negative: I counted 20 cycles out of 32 with ATMO negative dips <-30 vs none for PSL -ATMO least negative dip -25.0 in 8/1954 when PSL dipped only down to -14.53, also their least negative dip since 1953 -Lowest ATMO: -35.5 in 9/1996 (when PSL was -26.02) -Lowest PSL: -29.55 in 11/2005 (when ATMO was -33.3) -ATMO higher peak than PSL 29 cycles out of 33: I count 17 cycles out of 33 with ATMO peaks of 16+ vs none for PSL -Highest ATMO: +22.0 in 1/1953 (when PSL was -2.94) -Highest PSL: 15.62 in 6/1995 (when ATMO was 15.1) -So, ATMO cycles have higher amplitude than PSL though very similarly timed -# of months in positive periods in ATMO lasting 10+ months: 32 of 33. Longest on record is 18 months. ——————— The last stat tells me with near 100% confidence that all of winter ‘26-7 will be positive on ATMO. Why? The first positive month in the current phase was May of ‘26. The 10th month would be Feb of ‘27. Also, 22 of 33 positive phases lasted 12+ months with the avg length of a positive phase on ATMO being 13 months. Thus, my best guess as to the final month in the current positive phase per ATMO is within one month of May of ‘27. More than likely Feb of ‘27 will on ATMO still be >+10. The latest I can see the last positive month is Oct of ‘27 based on the 18 month record.

If the IOD guru Adam were still posting (will he ever come back?), I’d now be asking him about the potential very strong +IOD that’s been expected this autumn. It clearly is positive, but it isn’t strong per BoM (at least not yet as it still has til Nov to see if it will jump way up based on the past): As of 10/4/26, the weekly was +0.6. Note that the peak for 2026 so far was actually way back on 3/8/26 (+0.9). Then it fell back to 0 in May, but was then followed by a general rise til now. How does 2026’s +0.6 compare to some past Oct 4ths for Ninos/warm neutral along with 2 Ninas that had an unusual +IOD? 2026 +0.6 2023 +1.8 2019 +1.8 2018 +0.1 2015 +1.1 2014 +0.1 2012 +0.1 2011 +0.6 (mod Nina) 2009 -0.3 2008 +0.2 (weak Nina) —————— As one can see, Nino 2023 and warm neutral 2019 both had triple 2026! Also, Nino 2015 was nearly double. In addition, Nina 2011 was the same! (Aside: Nino 2009 was still negative although it had an unusually very late IOD peak of +0.7 on 1/4/2010.) So, as I said, 2026 isn’t exactly setting the world on fire so far regarding a +IOD. I’ll keep following. Any thoughts? ———————— Weekly IOD 2008+: https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1791781094025

Meanwhile, the remnants of Isaias are directly responsible for tornadoes today in NC, including a damaging one in Fayetteville and several others in the Triangle region! This is serious stuff and is the 2nd day in a row of this.

Donald Trump is toying with the idea of renaming the Atlantic Ocean the Trump Ocean. No, I’m not making this up: https://nypost.com/2026/10/11/us-news/president-trump-toys-with-renaming-atlantic-and-pacific-trump-ocean/ Now, I don’t know if he’s serious, of course. I suspect he’s really just trolling. But he has already changed the name of two bodies of water. So, it may be trolling plus a little seriousness. Can you imagine if he were to actually do this? -The title for next year’s Atlantic thread may need to be “The Trump Hurricane Season”. -NHC TWOs will then start out as: “The tropical weather outlook for the North Trump...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:” -Instead of saying you live on the Atlantic coast, you’d then be saying you live on the Trump coast. -The Middle Atlantic states would then become known as the Middle Trump states - NAO would become the North Trump Oscillation. -The ACC would change to the TCC. -He wasn’t able to make Canada the 51st state. But the Atlantic provinces of Canada would become the Trump provinces of Canada. Good enough for him and maybe even better. -Atlantic City? No more as the new name would be Trump City. -Atlantic Standard Time’s new name? Trump Standard Time

That line of convection that has extended from NC to FL and came through this area as thunderstorms around dawn-sunrise has been just ahead of a cold front pushing E to the S of Isaias’ remnant low (see image below). That’s what was needed to finally bring dewpoints here back down from the 24 hour long oppressive mid to upper 70s to the current low 60s as winds shifted from S to SW to a drier W.