GaWx

I’ve exceeded 2” over the last hour, heaviest hourly rate of the summer so far, but it’s lightened up quite a bit although it hasn’t stopped. Drainage projects areas have both held up well so far and the street isn’t as bad as it had been before the nearby ditch was redug.Follow-up for SAV area flooding:455 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 800 PM EDT. * AT 455 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, RICHMOND HILL, WINDSOR FOREST, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, COFFEE BLUFF, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE, HUTCHINSON ISLAND AND MONTGOMERY

There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged. This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.

Some just popped thunderstorms in my area at 4PM moving slowly W. CTG lightning strike very close! 4:47PM update: I just had another close CTG strike. We are getting hit hard with very heavy rain in much of the SAV area. I’ve already had ~1.5” and it is still pouring. This will really test my recent drainage projects! As a result:CHATHAM GA- 422 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * WHEN...UNTIL 545 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 417 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, AREAS OF CHATHAM COUNTY, INCLUDING THE CITY OF SAVANNAH, IS EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO A FEW ROADS TO DEVELOP DEEP PONDING OF WATER OR ROADWAY FLOODING. - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, WINDSOR FOREST, I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, COFFEE BLUFF AND GODLEY STATION.

Just a trace of rain here today. “Only” 93 today at KSAV, which is actually NN, after a 9 days straight of upper 90s-100.

Is Mr. Bastardi accurate in saying this is the coldest CFSv2 JFM for the U.S. ever forecasted on its site (back to 2012)? Opinions about this map? Keep in mind that this is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run: Precip anoms from same run:

Don’t the messenger: I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run? Precip anoms from same run:

Baker, MT, only goes back to 1988!

Still watching Gulf early next week:

From elsewhere:Icon is the first Global that far out (this weekend) that shows low pressure forming in the Big Bend and hanging around the eastern panhandle. It gets to about 1007mb which isn’t particularly low. But it is at the surface. If it is close to being right, look for the other operational models to start going to that type of solution. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026071312&fh=3

We’re probably heading to a new warmest OHC of this Nino per this (often the far right portion of these graphs is later revised due to interpolation…so it isn’t certain yet):

Thanks, Adam. It appears that Zeke’s using ONI based climo comparisons. If he were to instead use RONI, it would still be the warmest on record but not by as much as the 0.8C that he refers to. So, it would be an easy record breaker even by RONI standards.

Yeah, the wording does sound kind of funny. Obviously, nobody can ever say what the hottest, coldest, etc. of all time/ever is in any location since that can’t possibly be known. But saying something is an “all-time record” in a location is, of course, totally different and is what the NWS is referring to. Now I’m going to get more technical: whereas one can’t possibly know the hottest or coldest ever in a location, they can know the hottest or coldest ever in a city (I’m saying “city” not “location”) if records have been kept since the city’s founding. Do you see the difference?

Nino 1+2 came in at +2.6 vs my guess of +2.7 to +2.8. Nino 3.4 rose only from +1.2 to +1.3 vs my guess of a rise to +1.4. The daily relative 3.4 OISST graph (see below) had suggested a rise of 0.2 rather than 0.1. Perhaps the rise was just under 0.15 and this rounded down to a rise of 0.1? But also, the image below of relative OISST for 3.4 suggests the relative 3.4 for last week (7/5-7/11 or the last 7 dots) was actually ~+1.5 (actually a little warmer than +1.5). So what’s going on? How come NOAA had it at only +1.3 being that they state it is OISST based? The +1.3 and this chart don’t jibe: 01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5

Chris, thanks. A rise in H5 hts in a warming world makes perfect sense, of course. Per your graph, the bulk of the rise in winter in the portion of the globe that you specified has been since the early 1990s and there’s been a rise of ~4 dm from ~530 to ~534 since then. In a warming world, we know that both the avg ridge and the avg trough H5 ht. will naturally be higher. But relative to each other, wouldn’t the differential remain ~same? I’ll make up some #s to illustrate my Q: -let’s say that in the early 1990s that the avg ridge for the entire globe year-round was 575 dm and the avg trough was 540 dm -let’s say that in the early 2020s that the avg ridge was 580 dm and the avg trough was 545 dm. The avg of each has to rise with a warming globe. -That would mean that the mean difference remained at 35 dm. So, relative to the avg trough/ridge, the avg ridge/trough wouldn’t be stronger/weaker assuming this hypothetical example were near reality

I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt