GaWx

For the first time in 7 runs, the UKMET doesn’t have a TS from this: it dissipates in the NW GOM similarly to the prior run TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 84.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.0N 84.9W 1009 23 1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 28.5N 85.5W 1008 22 0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.3N 85.7W 1006 27 1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.9N 85.6W 1005 32 0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 29.7N 86.1W 1005 31 1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 30.3N 86.8W 1008 28 0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N 90.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.07.2026 84 28.5N 90.9W 1009 25 0000UTC 24.07.2026 96 28.7N 91.7W 1010 24 1200UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.8N 93.4W 1012 28 0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

Thanks, Adam. For the period May-July, we’re likely headed to ~-22 avg SOI. One has to go all of the way back to 1905 to find any year at -22 or lower for May-July! Then it was -27. But that was a second year Niño (moderate). The only other one was in 1896, a strong Nino. That was at -28. Per Eric Webb’s tables, 1895-6 barely missed a low end weak Nino because there were only 4 tri-months in a row of +0.5 surrounded by +0.3s! So, 1896-7 was practically a 2nd year Nino. So, 2025-6 with 2024-5 having been La Niña is in uncharted territory going back to the mid-1800s as regards the extremely intense summer -SOI.

Chuck, I don’t follow you. Do you see anything that could prevent a +QBO from starting ~now or in autumn and then going through winter? If so, what? I’ve been banking on it based on the common ~24 month pattern.

How do you know that the El Niño is what caused this? Couldn’t it just be a coincidence? I’m suspicious of that because I couldn’t find even one similar occurrence with any of the other super-Nino events! @40/70 Benchmark@Stormchaserchuck1 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Don’t forget that CDAS is slightly cold biased. But this chart isn’t relative. Relative OISST is in the +1.6-+1.7 range. I’m guessing that tomorrow’s weekly relative Nino 3.4 release will have it at +1.5 with +1.6 on the high end.

That July 16th Darwin 1018.25 mb is its 2nd highest on record back to 1991. The highest is only barely higher, 1018.35 (mid-2004). *Corrected

Thanks, Chuck. So, temps are clearly colder with W vs E based. Is some of this because the strongest El Niño winters tend to have warmer 1+2? However, with regard to wintry precip, itself, the SE appears to have done a bit better with C based (3.4 warmest) than W based (4 warmest) if I’m recalling my research correctly.

I realize ‘25-6 DJF was mild overall in the CONUS on a geographic basis. I’m not disputing that. But I think you’re being a bit too harsh on model performance for 25-6. The winter averaged 37.1F, which was 3.1F warmer than the Euro’s climo base of 1993-2016 and 3.0F warmer than the CFSv2’s climo base of 1991-2020. The forecasted mean anomaly for both the 8/1/25 Euro and the mid-July ‘25 avg CFSv2 was ~+2F for the CONUS on a geog. area basis or ~36F. This was actually a bit warmer than the 35.6 of 1994-5. Thus, the models were only ~1F too warm on a geog. area basis. Here are the warmest CONUS winters since 1895-6 (excluding 2025-6): 37.5 in 2023-4 36.8 in 2015-6 36.5 in 1999-00 36.4 in 1991-2 36.3 in 2011-2 36.3 in 1998-9 36.0 in 1999-00 Thus, with their ~36F progged mean, these 2 models were essentially predicting about the 7th-8th warmest CONUS winter since 1895-6. It came out 2nd. I think that’s pretty darn good. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026

Mid July ‘25 CFSv2 2m fcast for winter 25-6: 8/1/25 Euro 2m fcast for winter 25-6: Actual 2m for winter 25-6: So, these 2 were much too warm in the E US, pretty close central, and not nearly warm enough W, especially in/near Rockies. W coast though was fairly close. *Edited for typo

12Z UKMET: 6th run in row with TS but dissipates off TX TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 85.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 27.1N 85.2W 1012 22 0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 27.9N 84.9W 1009 22 1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 27.6N 85.5W 1008 27 0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.2N 85.5W 1005 30 1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.8N 85.7W 1004 35 0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 29.3N 86.0W 1003 35 1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 29.4N 87.1W 1004 46 0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 29.2N 88.2W 1004 40 1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.0N 90.7W 1002 48 0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.1N 93.9W 1005 33 1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

TD2 advisories to be initiated at 11AM.

The latest CFSv2 run’s mean is at new highs for peak: Monthly relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.6 (Nov), which is way above current record (back to 1950) warmest of +2.69 (Jan ‘83) : 3 month relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.35 (SON and OND), which is way above the record back to 1950 of +2.52 (NDJ 1982-3)

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (formerly AL91) located over the Gulf of America, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC) Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod. TIA

I just started a thread on Invest 91L/potential Bertha:

Invest 91L will be investigated by recon today. NHC chances in TWO now very high: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi —————— -Last 5 full (0Z/12Z) UKMET runs, the most consistently enthusiastic of the globals, have had a TS from this moving toward W GOM/LA/TX. -Icon also has been hinting at this for several days with some runs having a TC -0Z Euro was first run with a TC with it near borderline TS S of W FL panhandle