GaWx

12Z UKMET: rapid WNW move in MDR with no strengthening followed by TS strength outside of MDR and change of move to NW well off the SE US at the end with interaction between Dolly and the TS hitting CHS making it more of a forecast challenge: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.08.2026 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 37.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.08.2026 0 13.6N 37.4W 1009 30 0000UTC 28.08.2026 12 14.0N 41.3W 1009 31 1200UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.5N 45.7W 1010 31 0000UTC 29.08.2026 36 15.3N 49.9W 1011 32 1200UTC 29.08.2026 48 16.3N 54.0W 1011 33 0000UTC 30.08.2026 60 17.3N 57.7W 1011 33 1200UTC 30.08.2026 72 18.7N 61.0W 1011 35 0000UTC 31.08.2026 84 19.7N 63.4W 1010 32 1200UTC 31.08.2026 96 20.4N 65.8W 1010 34 0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 21.0N 67.5W 1009 32 1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.5N 69.4W 1007 35 0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 21.8N 70.6W 1006 36 1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 22.8N 72.2W 1004 39 0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 23.7N 73.7W 997 42 1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 25.2N 75.3W 992 49

Keeping in mind that the UKMET was one of the earliest, to consistently predict Dolly with runs doing that going back as far as 7 days fwiw: The 12Z UKMET has a low form in the subtropics well off the SE coast that later either hits or is about to hit the SE US for the 3rd run in a row. Yesterday’s 12Z’s low was weak and it was about to hit NE FL at the end (Sept 2nd). Today’s 0Z had a TS about to come into the S portion of the FL E coast on Sept. 3rd. Today’s 12Z UKMET has TCG at hour 108 that initially moves W but then strengthens into a TS that turns NW to hit Charleston on Sept. 3rd: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.8N 74.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 29.8N 74.4W 1013 26 1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 29.8N 74.8W 1011 30 0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 29.5N 75.8W 1009 36 1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 30.3N 77.3W 1008 37 0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 31.4N 78.5W 1004 39 1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 33.1N 80.0W 1001 39

Hello, Dolly!

I didn’t see the radar loop yesterday (8/26) for my area. However, based on radar based rainfall estimates shown by local TV websites and considering Hunter’s 1.27”, I’m roughly estimating my home got a 2nd day in a row of a good hit yesterday with 0.75” (for 8/26). I’m not there to see a measurement. I already very roughly estimated 1.5” the day before (for 8/25). That puts my place at ~~7.25” MTD, a very beneficial wetter than normal being there’s still a moderate drought there lingering per the latest Drought Monitor.

Not only did that preceding low appear on the 0Z UK, it is actually classified a TD on the 0Z at hour 108 in the subtropics and a TS at hour 132 on a WSW track ending not too far offshore E coast of FL on the way to a hit there on Sept 3rd as it is trapped by a strong SE H5 high: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.9N 72.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.08.2026 108 29.9N 72.3W 1014 25 0000UTC 01.09.2026 120 29.4N 72.3W 1011 30 1200UTC 01.09.2026 132 28.9N 72.4W 1007 35 0000UTC 02.09.2026 144 28.0N 73.7W 1005 37 1200UTC 02.09.2026 156 27.3N 75.6W 1005 38 0000UTC 03.09.2026 168 26.8N 77.3W 1003 37 Meanwhile, 96L is initialized as a TD, which is consistent with its 12Z run. Again, it remains a TD moving rapidly WNW in the MDR with a skimming of the N Leewards. It then becomes a TS but then it misses the SE Bahamas as it turns NW and NNW due to Fujihara around the preceding TS: TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.1N 33.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 27.08.2026 0 14.1N 33.5W 1011 29 1200UTC 27.08.2026 12 13.8N 37.1W 1010 29 0000UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.2N 41.5W 1010 29 1200UTC 28.08.2026 36 14.4N 46.4W 1011 31 0000UTC 29.08.2026 48 15.1N 50.8W 1011 29 1200UTC 29.08.2026 60 16.0N 54.9W 1012 32 0000UTC 30.08.2026 72 16.8N 58.5W 1012 30 1200UTC 30.08.2026 84 18.2N 61.9W 1012 32 0000UTC 31.08.2026 96 19.3N 64.9W 1011 30 1200UTC 31.08.2026 108 20.8N 67.1W 1011 31 0000UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.9N 68.8W 1011 29 1200UTC 01.09.2026 132 22.5N 70.0W 1009 30 0000UTC 02.09.2026 144 23.6N 70.4W 1007 32 1200UTC 02.09.2026 156 25.5N 70.9W 1007 36 0000UTC 03.09.2026 168 27.2N 71.6W 1008 37 @WxWatcher007 Complications like this fascinate me as they make the forecasting much more difficult, which makes for more interesting forecast discussions.

^More on this: The very strong Nino seasons of 1982 and 1877 only had 1 TC by Aug 26th. 1965 only had 2. And 2026 so far has been a sig. stronger Nino than these 3. @TheDreamTraveler

But not so crazy for a very strong Nino.

Here’s the last map of the 12Z UKMET showing the strengthening 96L moving WNW. Aside: I also see a very weak sfc low on those late maps moving W toward NE FL. It’s doing so due to W steering from an H5 594 dm high centered over the well inland SE. I wonder if that weak low is real:

The 12Z UKMET, unlike the 0Z, says it is, indeed, a duck as it does develop it and fast! It moved TCG back up 4.5 days back to about when yesterday’s 12Z run had TCG, this evening! Like many runs before the 0Z, it has rapid WNW movement in the MDR while keeping it (mainly) a TD and then strengthens it to TS Dolly about when it leaves the MDR and slows down and later passes just NE of the Bahamas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.8N 33.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 27.08.2026 12 13.8N 33.6W 1010 27 1200UTC 27.08.2026 24 13.6N 37.9W 1008 31 0000UTC 28.08.2026 36 13.8N 41.6W 1010 30 1200UTC 28.08.2026 48 14.4N 46.3W 1010 32 0000UTC 29.08.2026 60 15.0N 50.5W 1011 29 1200UTC 29.08.2026 72 16.4N 54.4W 1011 33 0000UTC 30.08.2026 84 17.5N 58.3W 1011 32 1200UTC 30.08.2026 96 18.6N 61.7W 1011 33 0000UTC 31.08.2026 108 19.5N 63.9W 1010 32 1200UTC 31.08.2026 120 20.5N 66.3W 1009 40 0000UTC 01.09.2026 132 21.6N 67.9W 1008 43 1200UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.3N 69.7W 1007 42 0000UTC 02.09.2026 156 23.2N 71.1W 1002 43 1200UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.5N 73.3W 999 42

I don’t know if it would matter for the NE US, but I don’t see evidence that a rapid collapse in itself would necessarily hurt.

It is quite wild that Dolly is the next named storm as has been said. It’s virtually impossible based on history and I realize we still could get her within a few days from Invest 96L, but what if the rest of the season were to be so amazingly quiet that we end up not even getting to Dolly?

Yes the CFS has been forecasting a rapid collapse starting as we go through especially the 2nd half of Dec. But it hadn’t earlier forecasted that most of August would be this flat.

There’s no evidence that this Nino won’t heat up more. I don’t think anyone said that here. If they did, I would have said they were wrong. I expect a resumption of solid warming shortly. But there’s plenty of evidence that it likely won’t heat up as much as the really wildly strong models have/had been showing because of the nearly flat most of August vs the model consensus having progged another sharp warning in Aug similar to July. They’ve been way off this month.

Early this evening here in the overall still very dry CO high country I saw this at a distance down the road I was taking a leisurely walk on, a first for me to see in the wild anywhere! The drought is so bad here that their natural food supply of berries, etc, is way below normal! This was surrealistic: