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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    So did forky, who has special privileges and staff powers for who knows what reason, just remove the Super El Nino banter thread that I posted a link to 30 minutes earlier? Or did he just remove my ability to view it? It all of the sudden now shows this when I view the link to the Banter thread that I provided in my prior post: Sorry, we can't show this content because you do not have permission to see it.
  2. GaWx
    Beautiful! Did anyone of note predict this? At a minimum, the Arctic ice news isn’t all bad right now and that’s putting it mildly:
  3. GaWx
    The link below is to the banter thread, which hasn’t had a post since Sept 28th while there have been dozens of near worthless banter posts clogging up this thread with poop since then making it harder for readers to find the much higher quality posts. How does that make sense?
  4. GaWx
    12Z UKMET is at its strongest of any run so far at landfall with 979 mb at 12Z on Sat at AL/MS border. Then it heads N along the border followed by NNW/NW into MS. The center is in NW MS as of GA/AL gametime. Tornadoes look like a problem in much of N FL/AL/GA while heavy rain and strong winds hit N MS/Memphis area Sat afternoon/evening due to the tightest gradient in that area at that time. Interesting.
  5. GaWx
    Thanks. So, what does all of this say in regard to the ECMWF’s forecasted weaker than avg SPV in Jan/Feb? Is that a legit signal of a likely weaker than normal SPV then?
  6. GaWx
    Everything Daniel Swain says makes sense. ONI is essentially the sum of ENSO and GW, which is what I’ve been saying and is literally what he says here: “absolute (ONI) index, which includes climate warming signal…” If you want to measure the pure ENSO signal, itself, and compare that to the pure ENSO signal of past events, the recommendation is to use RONI as NOAA suggests in their official RONI table going back to 1950. I understand that warmer air holds more water vapor and thus allows for increased rainfall. Thus, ONI better measures increased absolute warmth/rainfall since it adds the GW component to the ENSO component.
  7. GaWx
    Thanks. But with ERA5 not being a prognosis, why is its blue line going all of the way til 5/1/27?
  8. GaWx
    Any comments about what this graph implies? Why is prog of ERA5 avg (blue) so much higher than prog of ECMWF mean (black)? Isn’t ERA5 produced by ECMWF? Is ERA5 its own projection model? Any explanation would be appreciated.
  9. GaWx
    The CFS keeps missing too low and thus readjusting Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 higher while doing pretty much the opposite for 3.4 and 4 thus making it more and more E based from the already record E basedness.
  10. GaWx
    This is the official RONI version of yours, which takes into account the amount of GW between Ninos (specifically as regards the warming of the global tropical SSTs) and thus gives a better comparison of Nino strength from Nino to Nino: 26 has been record warmest since early Aug and currently is 0.13 warmer than 97, 0.47 warmer than 82, .61 warmer than 15, and 1.47 warmer than 23: Here’s the new Euro RONI prog: 26-7 remains strongest, even warmer than the rapidly warming late peaking 82-3 although only barely warmer than 83 in Jan:
  11. GaWx
    0Z Euro has landfall near Biloxi ~8AM CDT Sat at 986 mb.
  12. GaWx
    The 0Z UKMET landfalls at Mobile at 987 mb ~4AM CDT Sat, which is weaker than its lowest SLP of 978 mb 12 hours earlier in the N Gulf. The center then moves N over W AL before turning left into EC MS and then NE MS. Beneficial rains fall over much of the SE.
  13. GaWx
    That’s interesting that it dropped slightly. But it’s still a record high back to 1979 for AS. For all bimonthlies, the record high is 2.9 (AM of 1983).
  14. GaWx
    Very nice ice!
  15. GaWx
    12Z UKMET is strongest run yet with a H (65 knots/983 mb) hitting Biloxi followed by a move N into MS: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.6N 93.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2026 24 21.6N 93.7W 1005 29 0000UTC 08.10.2026 36 22.0N 93.2W 1003 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 48 22.6N 92.4W 1000 35 0000UTC 09.10.2026 60 22.7N 90.9W 999 31 1200UTC 09.10.2026 72 24.6N 89.6W 995 41 0000UTC 10.10.2026 84 26.4N 89.2W 992 45 1200UTC 10.10.2026 96 29.2N 88.7W 983 65 0000UTC 11.10.2026 108 32.3N 90.0W 994 26 1200UTC 11.10.2026 120 33.4N 90.4W 1003 27 0000UTC 12.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING
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