GaWx
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About GaWx

Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KSAV
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Gender
Not Telling
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Location:
SAV, GA
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Interests
weather stats, sports, walking/hiking
Recent Profile Visitors
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Follow-up: Today’s SOI is -10, which makes the current streak at an amazing 91 days, 2nd only to 1998’s 100 days for longest on record back to 1991. I’m predicting that tomorrow’s will be a +SOI, which would mean the streak ends at 91 days. -
Now the further E one is orange (40% within 7 days). The 0Z UKMET is back to developing this (12Z TC was from the further W TW): 0Z UKMETNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.3N 35.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 96 9.1N 36.4W 1010 231200UTC 13.08.2026 108 9.8N 38.0W 1010 280000UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.1N 40.2W 1010 281200UTC 14.08.2026 132 12.6N 42.5W 1010 320000UTC 15.08.2026 144 15.0N 45.6W 1011 331200UTC 15.08.2026 156 17.0N 49.5W 1011 370000UTC 16.08.2026 168 18.3N 53.4W 1012 41
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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12Z UKNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.0N 53.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 12.08.2026 96 12.0N 53.2W 1012 260000UTC 13.08.2026 108 12.5N 56.2W 1010 281200UTC 13.08.2026 120 12.7N 60.3W 1010 290000UTC 14.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING
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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg 0Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.6N 33.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 13.08.2026 132 12.6N 33.9W 1011 340000UTC 14.08.2026 144 13.0N 38.3W 1011 281200UTC 14.08.2026 156 14.1N 42.3W 1011 320000UTC 15.08.2026 168 15.4N 47.2W 1012 36
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Due to an inverted trough, heavy showers are occurring in the area moving from off the ocean including here. Rain started just after 8AM. Edit on 8/9: I ended up with ~1” on 8/8, almost all falling between 8AM and 10AM.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
July OHC of +2.96 set a new record high back to 1979 breaking old record of +2.56 (Oct 1997)! -
Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well vs the 2013-24 average! This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well! This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958: -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Although the -SOI streak is up to a whopping 89 days and it will reach the low 90s (2nd longest on record back to 1991 by a large margin to early 1998’s 100 days), there’s a good chance it will finally end early next week short of the 100 day record with at least one smallish +SOI as it now appears. Let’s see what actually happens. -
Folks believe Maue’s purposefully trying to sound overly dramatic to make fun of the doomsayers on social media.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm: He originally said this way back in April: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A 3rd year in a row of measurable snow down here on/near the coast of GA would be amazing since it would be unprecedented in the modern day record book (back to 1870s). -
Winter 2026-2027 Seasonal Outlook
GaWx replied to WinstonSalemArlington's topic in Southeastern States
New Euro at 2m: looks good to me but I expect Dec to be mild. So, I’d take this in a heartbeat! Jan is slightly cooler: I like
