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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. The ICON has at least been hinting at this since the Wednesday (7/9) runs whereas the other recent operationals have not had much, if anything. Ensemble support is only light. If this does occur, it would be an easy win for the Icon.
  2. Hey Chesco, Maybe so. That was a disaster waiting to happen even without CC. We’ll never know for sure about the possible influence of CC on this terrible incident as well as on many other specific incidents. But CC/GW has meant ~ a 7% increase in moisture held in the air per degree C increase. So, CC does make these incidents of very heavy rains within a fairly short period more frequent overall worldwide than before. Tropical systems, themselves, have on average gotten slightly wetter. Another thing CC has apparently caused is a slight slowdown of average steering winds due to a lowered contrast of the temperature gradient between the tropics and Arctic. Thus, the slightly slower avg movement of slightly wetter tropical systems means more frequent extreme rainfall events from tropical systems.
  3. Barry, So that you know I’m not just making up what I said in my previous post, I’m posting the actual Euro Weekly maps of today’s run for predicted ACE that I was referring to. Note the size of the green boxes in the ATL vs PAC. That’s why I said this was suggesting “pretty quiet” in the ATL with much more action suggested in the PAC. It remains to be seen how it verifies, of course: @BarryStantonGBP July 28th-Aug 3rd: climo (orange) is 2005-2024 Aug 4th-10th:
  4. If the last few days of Euro Weeklies were to happen to be right, it would be pretty quiet late July/early Aug. It has much more action in the Pac.
  5. After 2 days in a row of strong late afternoon/evening T storms and 3 days in a row of storms at some point in the PM (~5” total for 3 days) it is doing it again. Crossing my fingers the amounts today won’t be too high as I had flooding in my garage yesterday from a high water table (and also water blew in underneath my front door into my foyer).
  6. -2025’s 1.46 is 52nd of the last 75 seasons ACEwise as of July 12th -The last season with 7/12 ACE lower was 2009’s 0 -But 2004, 1998, 1985, 1969, and 1955 also had 0 in addition to 11 others -The predictive value of 7/12 ACE for the remainder of season’s ACE is virtually 0 -Here’s the 7/12 ACE position out of 74 for seasons with 150+ ACE remainder of season: 2nd, 6th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 24th, 31st, 34th, 59th-61st, 66th -So, avg 7/12 position of seasons with 150+ ACE to follow: 33rd of 74
  7. We’re getting blasted with a thunderstorm now! 2nd day in a row.
  8. He doesn’t post here. Of course I have no idea if he reads it.
  9. RONI could dip as low as moderate La Niña but I currently am forecasting ~-0.4 cold neutral ONI low point and -0.6 to -0.9 RONI low point (weak La Niña).
  10. I have EPO and PNA back only to 1950: -1962-3, 1967-8, Jan of 1985, and 2013-14 were all -EPO dominated -All of the above were +PNA dominated except just Jan of the 2013-4 winter
  11. Snowman, Further to my post above, three of the greatest (and arguably the two greatest are in this) E US Arctic outbreaks on record occurred during 2nd year -ENSO: -Feb of 1899 -Jan of 1985 -Jan of 2014 Mere coincidence especially with sample size tiny? @snowman19
  12. There are usually exceptions to any rule. These 2nd year -ENSO winters or portions of winters were cold in much of the E US: -1898-9 (including great 2/1899 frigid period)(March was also cold with its own outbreak early) -1909-10 (Dec/Feb) -1962-3 (frigid) -1967-8 (Jan-Feb) -Jan of 1985 (though Dec of 1984 warm) -2013-4 especially Midwest
  13. In the longer term, it’s still looking pretty quiet on the Euro Weeklies in the ATL basin through August 10th with much more activity in the WPAC and EPAC vs ATL. The GEFS runs still show a small chance for something in the NE Gulf next week.
  14. Thanks, Chuck. I see that the Euro op has 6000+ at peak. The 0Z GFS also barely has it. But I think most or all of the others are just shy of 6K. Is they what you see?
  15. +1.95 trimonthly peak for ONI (border between strong and super) +1.50 trimonthly RONI peak (border between moderate and strong)
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