GaWx

After 3 99s this summer so far, KSAV had 100 today!

Thanks, Chris Keep in mind that even when assuming a bias, this is the coldest chart late May through early July overall for 80N+ compared to the same charts back to 1958. So, isn’t it an apples to apples comparison if one says it’s the coldest DMI chart for 80N for this period?

Per TAO, 5 day averaged SSTs of 30C+ reached not only 180 but also to 170W at 0N as early as April 22nd of 2015: Location: 0N 170W 22 Apr 2015 to 22 May 2015 ( 7 times, 1 blocks) Gen. Date Jul 9 2026 Units: Sea Surface Temperature (C), -9.99 = missing Time: 1200 22 Apr 2015 to 1200 22 May 2015 (index 1 to 7, 7 times) Depth (M): 1 QUALITY YYYYMMDD HHMM SST Q 20150422 1200 30.04 1. 20150427 1200 -9.99 0 20150502 1200 -9.99 0 20150507 1200 29.85 1 20150512 1200 29.89 1 20150517 1200 29.91 1 20150522 1200 30.06 1 Time: 1200 3 Dec 2015 to 1200 2 Jan 2016 (index 49 to 55, 7 times) Depth (M): 1 QUALITY YYYYMMDD HHMM SST Q 20151203 1200 30.62 1 20151208 1200 30.68 1 20151213 1200 30.76 1 20151218 1200 30.53 1 20151223 1200 30.26 1 20151228 1200 30.29 1 20160102 1200 30.23 1 —————— This year it was still <29C in April and took til June 1st to exceed 30C although it’s been mainly rising since: Location: 0N 170W 2 Apr 2026 to 6 Jul 2026 ( 20 times, 1 blocks) Gen. Date Jul 9 2026 Units: Sea Surface Temperature (C), -9.99 = missing Time: 1200 2 Apr 2026 to 1200 6 Jul 2026 (index 1 to 20, 20 times) Depth (M): 1 QUALITY YYYYMMDD HHMM SST Q 20260402 1200 28.01 2 20260407 1200 28.14 2 20260412 1200 28.35 2 20260417 1200 28.65 2 20260422 1200 28.74 2 20260427 1200 28.94 2 20260502 1200 29.17 2 20260507 1200 29.36 2 20260512 1200 29.34 2 20260517 1200 29.67 2 20260522 1200 29.59 2 20260527 1200 29.82 2 20260601 1200 30.05 2 20260606 1200 30.38 2 20260611 1200 30.42 2 20260616 1200 30.59 2 20260621 1200 30.58 2 20260626 1200 30.56 2 20260701 1200 30.55 2 20260706 1200 30.46 2 https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/data_deliv/deliv-nojava.html @snowman19

The WCS daily PDO has plunged from -0.19 on June 24th to -1.43 just 2 weeks later:

Dips: below -26 in ‘25, ‘24, ‘22, ‘18, ‘15, ‘12, ‘10, ‘07, ‘05, ‘96, ‘94, ‘84; But none in 1983-1948: why?

Meanwhile, per DMI charts back to 1958, the mean temp. for the Arctic N of 80N continues being the coldest on record (I’ve been looking at all years’ charts) thus continuing the coldest overall there since the 2nd half of May:

I agree strongly. Out of the last 10 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs, which goes back to 1982-3, 90% (9) had all 3 months +0.25+! The only one that didn’t was the last one, 2023-4. That one still had 2 of the 3 at +0.25+ with Feb at +0.09. March of ‘24 went back up to +0.45. Since 1982-3, 90% (9) of Marches were +0.25+ with only March of 2003 not as it was neutral (-0.07). In contrast to 1982-3+, only 1 of the prior 7 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs had all 3 months at +0.25+!

SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 352 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2026 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN BY VARIOUS QUALITY CONTROLLED OBSERVATIONS SYSTEMS FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. *************MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX (113F AND ABOVE)************* LOCATION MAXIMUM TIME/DATE COMMENTS HT INDEX MEASURED (DEG F) SOUTH CAROLINA ..BEAUFORT COUNTY BEAUFORT MCAS 114.0 256 PM 7/08 ASOS ..BERKELEY COUNTY HUGER 114.0 114 PM 7/08 MESONET WITHERBEE 113.0 1215 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL ..CHARLESTON COUNTY AWENDAW/WAMBW 116.0 147 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL CHARLESTON INTL ARPT 114.0 308 PM 7/08 ASOS CHARLESTON EXE ARPT 113.0 1255 PM 7/08 AWOS DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 113.0 200 PM 7/08 OFFICIAL NWS OB. ..COLLETON COUNTY BENNETTS POINT 113.0 1200 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL

Thanks, Adam. Note how much the WPAC has cooled from Korean Pen. to E of Japan! Also, check out the impressive N Atlantic cooling! That ATL cooling along with cooling tropics (-AMO trend) may be indicative of a major pattern change toward colder E US winters coming up.

Moderate +NAO 1973 2 1 0.250 1973 2 2 0.252 1973 2 3 0.237 1973 2 4 0.525 1973 2 5 0.834 1973 2 6 0.944 1973 2 7 0.807 1973 2 8 0.672 1973 2 9 0.656 1973 2 10 0.718 1973 2 11 0.924 Moderate to strong +AO 1973 2 1 1.868 1973 2 2 1.709 1973 2 3 0.930 1973 2 4 0.511 1973 2 5 1.958 1973 2 6 2.915 1973 2 7 2.326 1973 2 8 1.437 1973 2 9 1.385 1973 2 10 1.560 Neutral to weak +PNA 1973 2 1 0.304 1973 2 2 0.161 1973 2 3 0.229 1973 2 4 0.295 1973 2 5 0.179 1973 2 6 -0.004 1973 2 7 -0.097 1973 2 8 0.154 1973 2 9 0.349 1973 2 10 0.166 Moderate to strong -EPO 1973 02 01 74.97 1973 02 02 -15.68 1973 02 03 -165.84 1973 02 04 -262.56 1973 02 05 -228.20 1973 02 06 -209.60 1973 02 07 -231.67 1973 02 08 -209.49 1973 02 09 -159.81 1973 02 10 -29.44 Neutral to weak +WPO 1973 02 01 247.35 1973 02 02 202.33 1973 02 03 119.68 1973 02 04 71.22 1973 02 05 36.31 1973 02 06 9.54 1973 02 07 -8.75 1973 02 08 -19.39 1973 02 09 0.37 1973 02 10 21.42

It’s still an oppressive 97.3 at my place with mostly sunny skies. I don’t know what the high was but my guess would be ~99 (about the hottest of the year so far) and HI’s way up there.

CSU 7/7/26 update: This forecast is predicting the weakest season since 2013. I wouldn’t at all mind a break here in the very hard hit SE overall since 2016. “We further reduce our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipate a well below-normal season. Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.” https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-07.pdf

I just posted this elsewhere: 1. Asheville temp. records go back to 1876 and thus include 1877-8. Whereas Dec was mild/AN at 43.6, Jan was actually snowy and cold/BN (35.2) and Feb was NN (39.8). So, DJF averaged 39.5, which is actually NN. In Jan, they had well above normal snow with 4” on the 4th and 4.5” on the 31st! They had a low of 7F on the 7th. So, I wonder why this source per your post said:The winter of 1877–1878 in North Carolina was remarkably warm, largely recognized as an exceptionally mild season brought on by a historic 'Super' El Niño event.This doesn’t at all jibe with this Asheville data and I haven’t found any data for any other locale in NC going that far back.Data from here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp —————2. Regarding other super-El Nino winters in the SE:-1888-8: Feb 1889 had a SE major snowstorm and was cold allowing for DJF to avg BN-1957-8: cold winter overall with cold in Jan and especially Feb. and was snowy overall, esp in Feb, which included deep SE-1965-6: cold winter overall thanks to quite cold in Jan and overall snowy in part of SE thanks to Jan/Feb-1972-3: historic ZR Jan N GA and vicinity; historic snowstorm Feb AL to NC, including deep SE; overall NN temps with BN Feb-1982-3: very snowy much of SE, including historic snow much of area in spring! ATL had biggest snowstorm as well as snowiest winter since 1939-40! It hasn’t been matched since! Overall NN temps.-1991-2: ATL and nearby had a major snowstorm in Jan. Otherwise it was a mild winter.-1997-8: NN temps overall with cold Dec, mild Jan, and NN Feb-2015-6: AN temps overall due to warmest on record Dec as JF were actually BN to NN—————In summary, -a super-Nino doesn’t point to an expected warm SE winter as only 2 of the 9 averaged mild in DJF. Only one, 1991-2, averaged mild throughout DJF.-Super El Niño winters tend to average mild in the N tier of the US, not the SE.-Dec will be favored to be AN as 6 of these 9 had a mild Dec, including the warmest on record-Jan/Feb averaged out will be favored to be BN with most of the 9 BN overall, with some quite cold months in some cases-AN wintry precip prospects are better than avg. All it takes is one major snow in the SE in many cases.-AN rainfall prospect is the best news of all due to the drought!

Ray, Good advice! I’m careful with potential bias of forecasts from any source, especially internet based looking for clicks or likes ($). This source is putting some emphasis on the cooling N Atlantic and AMO decline tendencies as an additional important factor to consider for especially the E US, something I haven’t seen a whole lot here and elsewhere (not specifically you though). So, this gives a different perspective (both Atlantic and Pacific influences) from most discussions I’ve seen with lots of support from both historic data and latest forecasts from 3 of the most widely followed seasonal models, none of which are warm this winter as a whole for the bulk of the E US. Also, note that this article from a European source also includes warm maps for the upcoming European winter.

A Cold Atlantic Anomaly Returns as Super El Niño Shapes Winter 2026/2027 Early Forecast Signals Together, the Atlantic cold blob and Super El Niño signals are already giving strong early hints for Winter 2026/2027 pressure and temperature across the United States, Canada, and Europe. If we look at the actual observation image below, it shows the real ocean temperature trends over time. It looks nearly identical to the model simulation of a weakening AMOC. This supports the fact that the AMOC is indeed weakening, even faster than first anticipated. This temperature signature of the warm Gulf Stream area and cold North Atlantic is one of the strongest indicators of the AMOC weakening. Data shows the formation and growth of a new “cold blob” pattern, forecast to last into 2027. You can see a very clear cold ocean anomaly, stretching back towards the Gulf Stream area. This anomaly is much larger than last year, continuing the long-term cooling trend of the subpolar North Atlantic. You can see that the main cold area is linked back into the Gulf Stream and towards the east coast of the United States. Below is an even more dramatic analysis image. It shows the 1-year difference in surface temperature for the last week of June. This shows that the North Atlantic is much colder currently than it was this time last year. What stands out most is the Gulf Stream area, which shows several degrees lower temperatures compared to last year. North Atlantic Cold Anomaly and Super El Niño Forecast North American Pattern: Where Ocean and Atmosphere Collide The atmospheric pattern we found the connection to is called the Pacific-North American pattern, or PNA. This basically tells us that a Fall cold blob anomaly in the Atlantic corresponds to a positive PNA pattern in Winter. Not meaning that the cold anomaly itself is responsible for a colder winter over the eastern United States, but it can be like an indicator of what is to come. But this year, we have a far stronger driver on the rise, the Super El Niño. Below is the analysis of the winter period during the last 4 Super El Niño events. You can actually see a very similar pattern to the +PNA above. Below is the December 2026 pressure forecast from the ECMWF model that we used above for the ocean temperatures. We also added the CanSIPS model to compare different predictions. You can see that both forecasts show a strong positive PNA pattern, with a high-pressure system over Canada, a deep low in the North Pacific, and a low-pressure zone over the central and southern United States. We can add another model into the mix, the CFS from the United States CPCcenter, which covers the whole Winter 2026/2027 period. Below is the pressure forecast that again shows an identical pattern to the two predictions above, with a clear Super El Niño pattern and a positive PNA over North America, with a ridge into Europe. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/atlantic-anomaly-and-super-el-nino-shaping-early-winter-2026-2027-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ @snowman19@40/70 Benchmark