Jump to content

GaWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    18,721

  • Joined

About GaWx

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

Recent Profile Visitors

44,982 profile views
  1. GaWx
    Winter storms in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry. So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being Mei Lu from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).
  2. GaWx
    Today’s OISST update (for June 3rd) doesn’t have the dramatic 0.09C rise of each of the last 2 days, but it still rose 0.04C to +1.229C.The implied RONI equivalent is ~+0.7C: *Corrected for typos*
  3. GaWx
    With the typical mean +PNA, even Canadian air that’s mild for them and the N US can come down rapidly enough to be BN once it gets to the south. Example: 20 F in MSP, which is AN for there in winter, can come down fast enough to limit modification and still bring BN 30F to the south. Some of the coldest winters in the SE were when it was mild in Canada. Canadian air with a straight shot down here is always cold for us. The coldest anomalies in a +PNA are often in the SE with New England to the Lakes often NN.
  4. GaWx
    Good news here. Not surprisingly, the “exceptional” that covered most of SE GA has improved one level to “extreme”. Reason to celebrate as it’s “only” extreme now.
  5. GaWx
    Hey yoda, Thanks. Would you please post this in this newly created 2026 C and E Pacific tropical thread? TIA.
  6. GaWx
    Please post 2026 C and E Pacific discussion/activity in here. Thank you.
  7. GaWx
    Tropical ATL predictions so far ITT: ineedsnow 11/4/2 me 8/4/1 ACE 52 LongBeachSurfFreak 12/5/2 Jconsor 13/6/2 ACE 90 Any others? Please get your entries in by Sunday evening. The winning prize is fantastic, a kudos!
  8. GaWx
    The model progs are suggesting a shot at a 1017 mb Darwin SLP on June 7th. If that occurs, it would easily become the new highest Darwin SLP that early in the year based on records back to 1992. The current record highest that early in the year is 4/22/2023’s 1016.2 mb. If it reaches 1017, it would become the earliest 1017 on record by ~15 days!
  9. GaWx
    Here we go folks. June 2nd was the 2nd day in a row of a steep warming in 3.4 (another 0.09) (RONI up to ~+0.7C). That makes it a two day warming total of 0.18C! It hasn’t warmed at this rate since way back in mid-April. A notable but delayed warming after the start of a long and strong -SOI period is common and was in addition to model hints why I said on Monday before this two day rise to expect after the prior 15 day pause next week’s weekly 3.4 update to be a few ticks warmer:
  10. GaWx
    This morning was a refreshing low of 60 at KSAV and 64 at KSVN. Dewpoints are in the very nice/rare for June mid 40s. So, needless to say, I intend to walk at one of the parks this evening as I did yesterday.
  11. GaWx
    I also have 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers since 1980: 1982, 1987, 1994, 2006, 2015, 2018 I’m counting the barely positive QBOs of 1997 and 2004 as neutral QBO. Otherwise there’d be 8. The only one of the 6 that wasn’t warm in the E US was 2018, which was NN to slightly AN in the E US. So, it appears to be a pretty good correlation although the sample size is pretty small. Aside: Today’s SOI was the most negative so far this year at -34.80.
  12. GaWx
    Lower anomalies in 3/1+2 than 3.4/4. The bigger/smaller the differential, the stronger/weaker the Modoki.
  13. GaWx
    I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.
  14. GaWx
    There was just some very light rain today (a T). It was windy from the E as cooler, drier air was coming in. With temps down to the mid 70s, the steady breeze, and dewpoints in the mid 50s, it easily felt good enough to walk at the park for the first time in nearly 2 weeks despite a few rain drops.
  15. GaWx
    OISST rose on June 1st a whopping ~0.09C, which is the largest gain in one day since way back on April 13th! Is this just the start of an overall big warming? Based on the recent SOI and models, I think it is:
×
×
  • Create New...