Jump to content

GaWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    18,526

  • Joined

About GaWx

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

Recent Profile Visitors

43,473 profile views
  1. GaWx
    There was a historic very heavy snowstorm in the SE US on 3/24/1983. ATL got 7.9” of very wet snow, their heaviest snowstorm since Jan of 1940. That even gave Savannah a trace of sleet! ATL also had its snowiest winter (10.3”) since 1939-40 (another El Niño by the way).
  2. GaWx
    But this CFS run is still showing a RONI-ONI gap of 0.5C (+2.5 vs +3.0). That narrowing is <0.1 vs the JFM gap of 0.56.
  3. GaWx
    Officially I see only 0.05” at RDU for May 1-2: https://kamala.cod.edu/nc/latest.cdus42.RDU.KRAH.html Also, I see only 0.63” at FAY vs 0.91” on the map: https://kamala.cod.edu/nc/latest.cdus42.FAY.KRAH.html It’s as if they put in the wrong map. Maybe that was a forecast map?? But it has GSO right with nothing. Here’s a link to the last 7 days rainfall, which shows 0.44” at RDU, 0.77” at FAY, and 0.16” at GSO: https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KRAH/2605031100.sxus52.html
  4. GaWx
    Thanks, snowman. Indeed, it’s forecasting a 1982-3 redux as of now. The corresponding latest CFSv2 ONI forecast is at +3.0C, which is maintaining the recent ~0.5C difference between ONI and RONI:
  5. GaWx
    There’s a May 2026 obs thread here:
  6. GaWx
    KSAV (airport) had a record breaking low of 46 this morning. It was colder than all of the model progs, which were 49 to low 50s. The 46 is the second coldest low since March 21st! Also for KSAV, that’s the 4th record low within the last 12 months: 11/11/2025, 2/1/2026, 3/18/26, and 5/3/26 6/27/2012 through 5/14/2013 appears to be the last time for that to have occurred. As the dates show, KSAV has had 4 record lows within just the last 6 months! The last time there were 4 record lows within 6 months: 6/6/2005-7/11/2006. There were a whopping 6 during 5/23/2006-7/11/2006! Considering the warming globe, that’s getting more and more difficult and is thus quite notable. To put the GW related handicap into perspective, there have been 9 record highs during this same period that there were 4 record lows. Hunter (KSVN) had a low of 47. Today and tomorrow will be very pleasant for early May with forecasted highs in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints of mainly 45-52.
  7. GaWx
    Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. In other ENSO news, I still find it interesting that this sharp warming is occurring without a sustained or notably strong -SOI. We’ve had only short periods of strong -SOI so far and I see no long ones over the next week or so. Some negatives sure, but..
  8. GaWx
    Ooops, Chuck, sorry, I misunderstood you in my prior post. I misinterpreted that you were saying strong STJ as opposed to strong La Niña STJ pattern meaning, the opposite, a very weak STJ.
  9. GaWx
    The reds are actually BN, not AN. I know, kind of strange coloring. The SE drought was/is bad due largely to the very dry winter.
  10. GaWx
    What about these? I’m going to delete them soon due to big size taking up too much of my attachments space: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/
  11. GaWx
    Since the middle of last night, my area had ~18 hours of near continuous rain, which added to ~1.2” at my place. This was well predicted. It was a near perfect rain to help with drought since it was mainly light to moderate meaning little runoff. I’ll refine this final amount later, if needed. Yesterday’s showers added to only a few hundredths. This is the first event with 1”+ here since way back on Dec 4-5! Great start to May. That also means ~2.2” over the last 7 days in an area that had gone to extreme drought on the latest map due to extreme dryness back to Sept, near the worst drought condition in the US. This doesn’t end the drought but does put a nice dent in it even if only temporary. Hopefully others in a similar situation get similar relief soon if they haven’t already. This event should also have helped with the big fires to the SW. Due to the rain and N winds north of the front, it was quite cool for May with low 60s all day.
  12. GaWx
    Based on OISST, Monday’s weekly RONI equivalent for this week averaged out should be warmer than the +0.2 of last week. I’m leaning to +0.4 but +0.5 is possible. Today’s RONI equivalent is ~+0.5-+0.6:
  13. GaWx
    We could debate the GW component of OHC when comparing to past Nino events. But regardless, the current 5 month rate of warming of 180-100W OHC is the fastest on record (2.69) back to ‘79: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt So, the avg. steepness of the rise in this graph since Nov is a record for a 5 mo. period:
  14. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris To remind all of the obvious, 2026 has the advantage of the warmest merely due to GW, which of course should be taken into account when comparing the strength of the upcoming Nino to others. How much has it warmed since 2015? 1997? 1982? Haven’t oceans warmed at least ~0.5C since ‘82? The GW component of the tropical oceans should essentially be taken out when comparing strengths of ENSO, which is what RONI does. Even after taking this into account though, 2026 is in contention for the strongest Nino on record. This is also the case for OHC comparisons.
  15. GaWx
    2002-3 and especially 2009-10 were cold in the SE.
×
×
  • Create New...