GaWx

Meanwhile, the remnants of Isaias are directly responsible for tornadoes today in NC, including a damaging one in Fayetteville and several others in the Triangle region! This is serious stuff and is the 2nd day in a row of this.

Donald Trump is toying with the idea of renaming the Atlantic Ocean the Trump Ocean. No, I’m not making this up: https://nypost.com/2026/10/11/us-news/president-trump-toys-with-renaming-atlantic-and-pacific-trump-ocean/ Now, I don’t know if he’s serious, of course. I suspect he’s really just trolling. But he has already changed the name of two bodies of water. So, it may be trolling plus a little seriousness. Can you imagine if he were to actually do this? -The title for next year’s Atlantic thread may need to be “The Trump Hurricane Season”. -NHC TWOs will then start out as: “The tropical weather outlook for the North Trump...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:” -Instead of saying you live on the Atlantic coast, you’d then be saying you live on the Trump coast. -The Middle Atlantic states would then become known as the Middle Trump states - NAO would become the North Trump Oscillation. -The ACC would change to the TCC. -He wasn’t able to make Canada the 51st state. But the Atlantic provinces of Canada would become the Trump provinces of Canada. Good enough for him and maybe even better. -Atlantic City? No more as the new name would be Trump City. -Atlantic Standard Time’s new name? Trump Standard Time

That line of convection that has extended from NC to FL and came through this area as thunderstorms around dawn-sunrise has been just ahead of a cold front pushing E to the S of Isaias’ remnant low (see image below). That’s what was needed to finally bring dewpoints here back down from the 24 hour long oppressive mid to upper 70s to the current low 60s as winds shifted from S to SW to a drier W.

Thanks so much! We can see again! Per the graph you provided it is going about as expected at 30 mb. The table at the following link has the 30 mb QBO through when it stopped updating: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data This data had left off with Feb ‘26, which was then the 10th month in a row of a 30 mb -QBO (E QBO) and was starting to rise: 2025 12.11 10.55 11.82 6.94 -4.59 -13.72 -19.99 -22.28 -24.26 -24.65 -25.35 -26.92 2026 -25.51 -23.13 Looking at the widely followed 30 mb level on your graph, the QBO had one more strong negative (strong E) in March followed by a sharp rise from April through Sep (not at all unexpected) to typical solid positive (W) territory. The graph, including when looking at past patterns and projecting ahead, confirms the earlier confident predictions of a positive (W) QBO at 30 mb this upcoming entire winter.

Holy cow, I was just awoken from a deep sleep by a heavy thunderstorm located within a feeder band of ET Isaias! All of yesterday afternoon when it was so unstable once the sun came out, I had only light rain and no thunder. It came early today instead while still dark starting ~35 minutes ago (~6:35AM per radar loop I just saw! Fascinating! The orientation of the thin line has caused the rain to train right over my location since! Edit: I just checked and it’s still 78.1F even after ~0.5”+ of rain fell over the last 55 minutes from this line thus showing how high the wet bulb is! Edit #2: It appears I got ~0.75” from this line and another ~0.1” from other light rain since yesterday. So, together with the ~0.75” I got on Fri, I received a grand total of ~1.6” from Isaias’ influence. This brings me to an impressive ~4.3” MTD, which is more than the normal amount for the entire month of ~3.6”.

Well, it’s that time yet again, time to see how far another very long 2026 -SOI streak will go. As of yesterday, it was up to a whopping 69 days! That 69 days already puts it in 4th place for the longest since 1992. Only 4 more days are needed for it to become the new 3rd longest. However, here are the last 3 days: 2026 281 1013.63 1014.25 -22.63 2026 282 1014.05 1012.90 -11.22 2026 283 1014.79 1012.05 -0.97 Now you (just like I originally did) might wonder if this streak is going to end today. It sure looks like it on the surface. But I did some analyses and have determined that’s unlikely. Why? I see Darwin likely rising ~0.5-0.75 mb today and little change with Tahiti. If those predictions verify pretty well, today’s SOI will drop ~3-6. And then looking further ahead after several more days of Tahiti remaining ~same, it will start falling soon after without rising back up to yesterday’s 1014.79 area for at the very least 10 days while Darwin rises a fair amount more without falling back down to yesterday’s 1012.05 area for at least 10 days. That means that I see a high likelihood of this -SOI streak reaching at least 80 days. At that point, I’d then have a decent feel for the chance of reaching at least 90. To put this into perspective: we just had a 91 day streak May-Aug, the 2nd longest on record back to 1992. The longest is 100 days (set in Jan-Apr ‘98).

Anthony, Thanks for posting the DT update. 1. We don’t even know what the QBO is doing anymore thanks to you know who. But, based on where it was early in 2026, there was very little chance that it would NOT be W based this winter. *Edited due to typo* 2. I think that the usefulness of Judah’s SAI is questionable.

I look at @LibertyBellas being the Superman of efficiency, which I can appreciate. However, if someone who wrote one of the 100 posts whom LB replied to wants to reply back, wouldn’t that be a mess? I mean one of my posts (about baseball 8th-9th inning comeback chances) was in another massive reply. I was going to reply back, but never did because of the mess. I guess I could have copied and pasted just the reply to me, but I was too lazy. I don’t think a single person in that position has ever replied back! So, I’ve figured out why LB does this. To minimize replies back. And that’s part of being a Superman of efficiency. Right LB?

It’s finally over regarding this supercell! 642 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 ...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LEXINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SALUDA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT... THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, AND NO LONGER APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THEREFORE, THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

It’s finally over regarding this supercell! 642 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 ...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LEXINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SALUDA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT... THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, AND NO LONGER APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THEREFORE, THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

I don’t know whether this supercell is still producing a tornado but here’s the next tornado warning: TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 620 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEASTERN SALUDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 645 PM EDT. * AT 620 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF BATESBURG-LEESVILLE, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... BATESBURG-LEESVILLE AROUND 625 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HIBERNIA, KNEECE, SAMARIA FIRE STATION, FREDONIA, AND CAMP KINARD. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 38.

This after >3.5 hours is about to cross I-20! TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 555 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTH CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT. * AT 555 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AIKEN STATE PARK, OR 15 MILES EAST OF AIKEN, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON AND NORTH CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... NEW HOLLAND AND STEEDMAN. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 36. ———— Edit: I don’t know whether this supercell is still producing a tornado but here the next tornado warning: TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 620 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEASTERN SALUDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 645 PM EDT. * AT 620 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF BATESBURG-LEESVILLE, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... BATESBURG-LEESVILLE AROUND 625 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HIBERNIA, KNEECE, SAMARIA FIRE STATION, FREDONIA, AND CAMP KINARD. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 38.

This at the 3.5 hour point is about to cross I-20! TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 555 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTH CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT. * AT 555 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AIKEN STATE PARK, OR 15 MILES EAST OF AIKEN, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON AND NORTH CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... NEW HOLLAND AND STEEDMAN. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 36.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 527 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... EAST CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * AT 526 PM EDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WILLISTON, OR 11 MILES NORTH OF BARNWELL, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... WILLISTON AROUND 530 PM EDT. AIKEN STATE PARK AROUND 535 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE AIKEN GOPHER TORTOISE HERITAGE PRESERVE, WINDSOR, AND ELKO. **Over THREE hours and this supercell is still going! *Mucho kudos to chasers tracking this so well to allow NWS/public to be aware!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 527 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... EAST CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * AT 526 PM EDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WILLISTON, OR 11 MILES NORTH OF BARNWELL, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... WILLISTON AROUND 530 PM EDT. AIKEN STATE PARK AROUND 535 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE AIKEN GOPHER TORTOISE HERITAGE PRESERVE, WINDSOR, AND ELKO. ***Edit 5:43PM: This supercell has been going >THREE hours since a tornado pic was first released!! *Mucho kudos to chasers tracking this so well to allow NWS/public to be aware!