GaWx

Today was the 2nd afternoon in a row that my home had a severe thunderstorm warning. The heaviest was mainly 5-6 PM. Per radar my place likely got a really good dousing, but I’m out of town. I’ll check Cocorahs and other things later to get an estimate on the rainfall.

Dolly Parton’s passing was just announced. May Dolly RiP.

Dolly Parton just passed away. May Dolly RIP.

The next named storm is Dolly. Dolly Parton’s passing was just announced.

Thanks for posting that excellent graph! Now 2026 is essentially neck and neck with 1997. RONI/ONI will almost start warming again and likely soon/at a good pace, but: -it has clearly fallen behind model consensus that had steady warming throughout this month rather than the net flatness/pause of the last 3 weeks -so when warming resumes, even if in earnest, it will be restarting from a lower point than previously progged by models

12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z run with TCG by tomorrow along with rapid WNW movement in MDR along with it barely reaching TS status before weakening back to a TD though this time it remains a TC and strengthens back to a TS late moving much more slowly WNW near SE Bahamas:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.0N 32.0WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 27.08.2026 36 13.0N 34.0W 1008 291200UTC 27.08.2026 48 13.2N 38.0W 1007 330000UTC 28.08.2026 60 13.8N 41.9W 1008 331200UTC 28.08.2026 72 14.6N 46.5W 1009 360000UTC 29.08.2026 84 15.6N 50.9W 1009 331200UTC 29.08.2026 96 16.9N 55.1W 1010 350000UTC 30.08.2026 108 17.8N 58.9W 1010 331200UTC 30.08.2026 120 19.0N 62.6W 1009 350000UTC 31.08.2026 132 19.6N 65.4W 1008 301200UTC 31.08.2026 144 20.5N 68.0W 1008 310000UTC 01.09.2026 156 21.3N 69.7W 1007 351200UTC 01.09.2026 168 22.2N 71.7W 1006 38

100% that’s the case per much slower August warming than models had indicated plus models are trending down likely in reaction to that. See post above. Check out the ground truth with the latest OISST RONI the last 3 weeks: flat! CDAS ONI: flat last 3 weeks!

Thanks. Wow, your reduction of RONI peak (tri) to +2.4 to +2.6 is a good bit below my latest RONI prog of ~+2.8 and is only slightly, if any, above the record of +2.4 from 1982-3! That would be way below some still current model progs of +3.3 to +3.5 for tri RONI! They’re likely going to bust way too high as it looks now. Your latest progged ONI tri peak of only +2.7 to +2.9 compares to some ONI tri peaks still near +4.0! Ray and all, check out the following large cooling adjustments on the CFSv2 for RONI monthlies: 7/22-31: Aug was +2.35 7/26-8/4: Aug fell to +1.9; Sep +3.0 8/5-14: Sep fell to +2.85; Oct +3.65; Nov +3.75 8/15-24: Sep fell even more to +2.5; Oct fell to +3.3; Nov fell to +3.5 The trend is clearly down.

0Z UKMET: doesn’t quite get it to Dolly strength but still has it as a TD although this run then weakens it while moving rapidly WNW in the MDR followed by a reformation 2 days later moving W much more slowly toward the SE Bahamas:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.4N 33.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 27.08.2026 48 12.4N 33.9W 1010 281200UTC 27.08.2026 60 13.0N 37.8W 1009 300000UTC 28.08.2026 72 13.2N 42.0W 1009 311200UTC 28.08.2026 84 14.1N 46.7W 1010 320000UTC 29.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKINGNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 20.3N 67.0WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 31.08.2026 156 21.0N 68.4W 1010 340000UTC 01.09.2026 168 20.9N 70.6W 1009 32

Thanks for pointing this out, Mitch. Very interesting for sure! Check this excellent video from met. Travis Roberts just out a few hours ago. Within it, he talks about the initial flattening out (RONI, the top of your 2 graphs) that wasn’t there before, the same thing you pointed out! Also, check out how flat Aug has been on CDAS since the 5th! I mean that’s almost flat as a pancake type flat. Keep in mind that several models had forecasted a record breaking warming for just one month (for any month) of ~1C in August!

A severe thunderstorm went over my home ~3:10-25PM per radar. I’m out of town and thus couldn’t witness it. I think this is the first sig. rain there in a good while. Edit 8/25: Per Cocorahs and radar, I’m roughly estimating my home got 0.4” afternoon of 8/24.

^This is now Invest 96L and it’s up to 30%/60% in the TWO.

^For the same TW now emerging from Africa:12Z UKMET vs 0Z: similar rapid WNW track through MDR though 2-3 mb stronger starting near 50W. As it leaves MDR and slows down, it strengthens notably to mid-level TS at the end of the run while still moving WNW on heading in direction of SE Bahamas though still 300+ miles from there. Remains a significant SW outlier, which could be due to a SW bias that it sometimes exhibits with weak systems:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.6N 31.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 27.08.2026 60 12.1N 33.5W 1007 301200UTC 27.08.2026 72 12.3N 37.6W 1007 340000UTC 28.08.2026 84 13.2N 41.6W 1008 341200UTC 28.08.2026 96 14.0N 46.3W 1009 350000UTC 29.08.2026 108 14.9N 50.9W 1009 331200UTC 29.08.2026 120 16.5N 55.4W 1010 340000UTC 30.08.2026 132 17.5N 59.1W 1009 331200UTC 30.08.2026 144 18.9N 62.5W 1009 350000UTC 31.08.2026 156 19.6N 65.2W 1008 341200UTC 31.08.2026 168 20.2N 67.8W 1004 52

The very warm NW Pacific continues to drive a solid -PDO. It would be nice if that would diminish in intensity and allow a PDO increase. Strong El Niño forcing tends to favor a +PDO looking well back in history. Actually from 1877-8 through 1957-8, all 11 strong ones had a +PDO DJF. However, 1965-6 and 1972-3 were neutral. Then the 4 strong ones 1982-3 through 1997-8 went back to +PDO followed by a neutral 2009-10. 2015-6 went back to +PDO followed by 2023-4 being the first on record with a -PDO and a strong one at that! Being that August of 2026 will end up most likely 2nd strongest pre strong Nino Aug -PDO with even a slight chance at the strongest -PDO pre-strong Nino Aug, the chances of a +PDO this winter are low. Hopefully it would rise to neutral PDO and we don’t get the 2nd strong Nino winter -PDO in a row.Full tally for 20 strong El Niño events since 1877-8:-16 (80%) +PDO - 3 (15%) neutral PDO- 1 (5%) -PDOPDO data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

Based on model consensus suggesting higher than normal pressures at Tahiti likely dominating the 7 days or so, I don’t think the consistently strong -SOI dailies will return at least until early Sept. We could even have some +SOI dailies til then.