GaWx

TS Arthur has been born:

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DEVELOPS NEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 95.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to High Island, Texas. Reason for upgrade: 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone. Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 28.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart Big win for Joe Bastardi!

Link to Invest 90L thread:

Woodstock, GA, (25 miles N of ATL) had 3 widely spaced thunderstorms yesterday! It looks like my home area in SAV had several rounds of significant rainfall the last 72 hours with the heaviest being ~1.1” for the 24 hours ending at 7AM today using Cocorahs as a guideline. For the last 72 hours, I roughly estimate 1.4” fell at my location, which is also near my MTD.

I’ll consider this a win for Bastardi if it actually becomes a TC. He predicted back in April a Gulf TC due to MJO phase 8 being bullish for Gulf TCs in June. This could provide major drought relief for a good portion of the SE! This is now Invest 90L: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902026.dat

Thanks, Mitch. Indeed, “E based” can be defined in numerous ways as it’s not black and white, of course. Here are the relative anomalies for the strongest of years in 3.4 as of the closest week centered on June 10th back to 1982: 1+2 3 3.4 4 09JUN1982 -0.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 11JUN1997 3.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 12JUN2002 -0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 10JUN2015 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 Just looking at this period rather than model progs for fall/winter, here are my rankings of most to least E based: 1997, 2026, 2015, 2002, 1982 though 2026 is only slightly ahead of 2015

The latest OISST 3.4 1991-2020 anom of +1.607, which is for June 14th, is the warmest for this Nino to date and is ~0.075C warmer than that for June 13th making it the largest warming for any day since June 5th:

I see only 1979+ in the table. Based on it, the 2026 rise from MA to AM of 0.9C (-0.6 to +0.3) is the biggest rise for MA to AM since at least 1979. The previous biggest was the 0.7C of 2015: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Nino 3.4 officially warmed by 0.2 in today’s update from +0.7 to +0.9: 1+2 3 3.4 4 06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 03JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958! This is pretty surreal in our warming world: 2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C! 2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C: 1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C: 1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C:

It was pouring here in Woodstock in Cherokee County N of ATL just a few minutes ago with a passing shower.

Chuck and others, check this out: June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958! This is pretty surreal in our warming world: 2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C! 2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C 1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C 1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C

RDU high a “much cooler” 96 today vs 103 yesterday.

Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??: 7/25: ~-0.6 8/25: ~0 9/25: ~0 10/25: ~-0.3 11/25: ~0 12/25: ~+0.35 1/26: ~0 2/26:~-0.5 3/26: ~-0.6 4/26: ~-0.6 5/26: ~-0.7 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.

Yes, ncep ~-0.75 to -1 vs WCS