GaWx

Rain started here ~45 minutes ago and it has gotten heavy at times as boundaries collide over this area per radar. This is a really nice rain that I’m thinking will approach or just exceed 1” and could go a good ways up from there if this continues awhile.

It only takes one TC to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving. I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til laterJune 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til laterSept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til laterJune 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til laterJuly 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til laterSept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til laterAugust 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til laterOct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NESept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coastOct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US——————- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times. Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

*This post specifically only addresses the CONUS* ————————— It only takes one impact to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving. I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til laterJune 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til laterSept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til laterJune 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til laterJuly 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til laterSept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til laterAugust 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til laterOct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NESept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coastOct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US——————- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times. Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy. I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.

Latest OISST 1+2 anomaly is +2.5C (non-relative). That tells me that relative 1+2 is at a pretty hefty ~+2.0:

I’ve gotten some rain from thunderstorms this evening with possibly more to come. It hasn’t been that much so far (<0.25” I think). I’ll get the totals in the morning. Edit: I’ve got yesterday’s rains near 0.20” (5/30) and only a T so far today (5/31 through 4:20PM). That gets me to ~2.7” MTD. Can I get to 3” by day’s end?

Levi Cowan gives great updates. Here’s the 1st: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/2060836481128874201

Based on the past after strong -SOI periods, 3.4 SSTs tend to start warming ~10-24 days after the start of these periods. The last 20 days have averaged way down at -18 (and it hasn’t yet shown it is ending soon). Thus I’m expecting 3.4 to resume good warming at almost anytime after the last 2 weeks of little change. Plus the models have strong warming resuming in June. Thus I expect 3.4 to be several 10ths warmer by a week from now.

Check out the 40s DPs in RDU/GSO!

Today’s CFS has a record high RONI starting in JAS and going through NDJ before dropping at a record quick pace to only 3rd highest in DJF. I’m talking about records for each respective 3 month period, not overall. On monthly basis, it has records Jul-Dec! But then Jan falls so fast that it is then 0.5 cooler than ‘83 and is only 6th warmest behind ‘83, ‘92, ‘98, ‘58, and ,’16. Feb also is 6th warmest with it a whopping 0.63 cooler than ‘92!

Suzook had more rain this week than I’ve had in ‘26!

4/13/26 CFS RONI peak +2 (OND): 5/30/26 CFS RONI peak just under +3! Record peak is +2.5: 5/30 CFS DJF +2.22. That wouldn’t be record for DJF as ‘83 +2.5 and ‘92 +2.3. So, it’s actually showing a record rapid cooldown OND to DJF of 0.75 vs current record of 0.62 (2002-3).

Besides the MEI, I feel that the SOI (which may be part of the MEI…Is it?) remains a good measure of the phase and strength of ENSO because it is a calculation based on SLP differences between two points thousands of miles apart and thus doesn’t seem to be influenced by CC. In essence a relative SOI is likely not needed. Of course, because it is so volatile and subject to day to day randomness, it’s best looked at in 30+ day averages. Then again, if, say avg. Australian SLPs have been affected by CV differently from how Tahiti SLPs have been affected by CC, then even SOIs would need an adjustment. Other opinions?

The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June: 2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN 3rd week in June: wetter than normal: