GaWx

Today’s Euro Weeklies were better overall for E US, incl 1/12-18 Today H5: Yesterday 2m: Today 2m:

Just looking at the 8 cases that were during -ENSO (16, 22, 26, 33, 42, 44, 95, 10), the Jan SN mean/median rises to 12.8”/9.9”.

Thanks. However, when I did my estimates, I took into account that the 12/29 highs would be at midnight from there through OH/IN, ATL, to BRO, etc. I did the same for 12/28 highs in the Plains/upper MW and the 12/30 highs in the NE. If anything my 31 est. for 12/28-31 is slightly high. I est. 33, 26, 29, 33 for 12/28-31. For similar reasons, there were 11:59PM lows to take into account, which I did.

I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

-NYC now up to 7.2” snow this month, snowiest since Jan of ‘22. Thus, using stats @bluewaveand @donsutherland1got me informed about, I’m now forecasting a season total of 30” min., highest since at the very least 20-21. -NYC headed to ~5 BN this month, coldest vs norm since Mar of ‘15!

La Guardia was at 4.1” as of 7AM. So, all NYC area official reports are now above 4”.

Anyone see LaGuardia’s total? Other than that, I think every NYC official station got 4”+. C Park was up to 0.49” liquid equiv as of 7AM. Was that that far off? How much liquid was forecasted?

They got an additional 0.20” of liquid equivalent 7-11PM. As of 7 PM, they had had only .01”.

Today’s Euro Weeklies, which are overall fairly similar to yesterday, still have that new +PNA in the means for 1/12-18: This setup continues more strongly into the subsequent week, 1/19-25, than was seen yesterday:

Things are looking up for Jan just as our buddy Buc-ee is doing:

Natural has us up 4% today. This is one of the reasons: The 12Z GEFS has this at the end: more W coast ridging than prior runs along with a pronounced weakening of the Aleutian ridge: The result is an increasing hint on the GEFS of an Arctic high plunging down ~Jan 9th-11th along with a second one to follow: The SW Canadian air that might be brought down then is very cold:

BAMwx video update from Michael Clark this morning:

We’ll see. But keep in mind that: -Jan 22 had +NAO/+AO -This was the PNA forecast as of 4 years ago today through 1/9/22: it was for still -PNA as of 1/9/22. It turned out that 1/9/22 was the first +PNA day of a 38 straight day +PNA. So, GEFS 4 years ago was blind to its start even as late as today: - Today’s GEFS PNA forecast is eerily similarly maintaining a -PNA: hmmmm Also, keep in mind that GEFS (and all of the major ensembles) have had a strong -PNA bias over the last 90 days:

Based on population weighted heating degree days, a good measure of energy usage, the Conus in Dec won’t be that warm at all! Pop weighted Dec temps are progged to come out to only ~1 F warmer than normal. My estimate is for Chicago to end up Dec 3 BN, Cinci 2.5 BN, Balt. 4.5 BN, Philly 4 BN, NYC 5 BN, and Boston 4.5 BN. Even the upper SE (NC) should come in slightly BN and then ~+1.5 at ATL. SL should be right at normal. DFW should be ~5 AN, DEN ~11 AN, Phoenix 6.5 AN, LA 3 AN and Seattle 4.5 AN. Based strictly on geographic area though, my guess is that the Conus will come out to ~3 AN for Dec (~1 BN E 1/2 and ~7 AN W 1/2) or ~37 F. If it comes out to 3 AN, that wouldn’t be anywhere near the records of 2023 (~5.5 AN or 40.0), 2021 (~5 AN or ~39.3 F) 2015 (~4.5 AN or ~38.6 F), and 2024 (~4 AN or 38.3 F). So, I expect Dec of 2025 on an aerial basis to come out ~3 F colder than 2023, ~2 F colder than 2021, ~1.5 F colder than 2015, and ~1.0 F colder than 2024. Also, 1939 was ~37.7 F. So, I believe that on an aerial basis that Dec of 2025 will come out no warmer than 6th warmest Dec since 1895. Also, it’s possible that 1957 and even 2014 end up warmer than 2025 if I’m a little too warm with my 37 F guess by, say, a couple of tenths, possibly dropping 2025 down to as low as 8th warmest. @TheClimateChanger