GaWx

-NAO trends for 3/23-29 have lead to BN signal NE: 4 days ago: Now:

But NAO/AO continues to trend negative prior to that for week 2: NAO just 3 days ago: Yesterday: Today:

No BN signal in E US:

The map above was not accurately made by Brian B. Examples: Providence and much of L.I. had 200+% of normal (pink), but this shows pink south of them. Bos is also too low. This has Charlotte ~normal vs actual of 300+%! It has GSO in NC in yellow vs actual of 200%!

There’s no need to call him that. I gave a like to Anthony’s post saying cool start to spring because he was replying to my post showing a trend toward a lower NAO in week 2, in other words starting with calendar spring rather than met. spring. Y’all are talking about different things.

What people are saying that spring has started cool? This is near the warmest 3/1-12 on record for many. I was actually waiting for spring to get started being that it’s been like summer in the SE. Finally, it cooled off since yesterday.

The AO and NAO forecasts have lowered since 2 days ago in week 2 based on a day by day comparison. AO today: NAO today: NAO 2 days ago:

Latest MJO: all forecasted days are in phases 7 and 8, the coldest post Niña winter March phases on avg per records:

It may end up super-strong. But Eric likes to make bold calls and thus has had his share of bad busts before. So, we’ll see. Keep in mind the Euro’s warm bias in predicting ENSO as well as the fact that RONI is currently 0.5C cooler than ONI, which is what most of the model charts are showing.

I took my first walk outside in ~a week this evening due to the end of false summer. It was pleasant with near normal mid 50s, dewpoints near 40, and a nice steady breeze. Looking forward to nice walking wx over almost every one of the next 10 days. Spring has sprung. Actually it is a fallback to spring in this odd March!

From KCHS at 7:15AM: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 50 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BRYAN BULLOCH CANDLER CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS JENKINS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ALLENDALE BEAUFORT COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALLENDALE, BEAUFORT, BLUFFTON, CLAXTON, COTTAGEVILLE, DARIEN, EDISTO BEACH, ESTILL, FAIRFAX, FORT STEWART, GARDEN CITY, GLENNVILLE, HAMPTON, HARDEEVILLE, HILTON HEAD ISLAND, HINESVILLE, LUDOWICI, METTER, MILLEN, PEMBROKE, POOLER, REIDSVILLE, RICHMOND HILL, RIDGELAND, RIDGEVILLE, RINCON, SAINT GEORGE, SAVANNAH, SPRINGFIELD, STATESBORO, SUMMERVILLE, SYCAMORE, SYLVANIA, TYBEE ISLAND, VARNVILLE, WALTERBORO, AND YEMASSEE.

Chuck, Crude has quietly risen $18 (to almost $95) just since the 1PM low of yesterday! Normally, this move alone would be quite notable. But after Monday’s near all time extreme volatility, it seems relatively orderly.

I didn’t check my thermometer again during the heat of the day. But KSAV had a record high of 91, easily beating the old record of 87! KSVN also hit 91. Summer’s here! KATL tied its record high of 82.

Folks, I just saw 86.5 on my thermometer at 12:07PM EDT!! It has since fallen back to a cold 86.1 lol.

Today’s MJO forecasts: GEFS EPS