GaWx

Besides the MEI, I feel that the SOI (which may be part of the MEI…Is it?) remains a good measure of the phase and strength of ENSO because it is a calculation based on SLP differences between two points thousands of miles apart and thus doesn’t seem to be influenced by CC. In essence a relative SOI is likely not needed. Of course, because it is so volatile and subject to day to day randomness, it’s best looked at in 30+ day averages. Then again, if, say avg. Australian SLPs have been affected by CV differently from how Tahiti SLPs have been affected by CC, then even SOIs would need an adjustment. Other opinions?

The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June: 2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN 3rd week in June: wetter than normal:

You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.

The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

Also, keep in mind that a -1.40 WCS daily PDO is generally equivalent to a sub-2 NOAA daily PDO. This differential has been the case since I started following WCS daily PDOs years ago.

Check out this 19 day sub -5 SOI streak along with today’s -33.46 being 2nd most negative (barely missing 1st) so far this year. Note that Darwin’s higher than avg SLP for May has the last 10 days finally joined Tahiti’s lows to contribute. Darwin SLPs look to remain on the high side at least over the next week or so per models: 2026 131 1012.47 1012.15 -9.25 2026 132 1011.99 1012.00 -11.78 2026 133 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47 2026 134 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 2026 135 1009.15 1010.00 -18.21 2026 136 1008.21 1009.70 -23.11 2026 137 1007.49 1009.55 -27.48 2026 138 1009.98 1009.25 -6.11 2026 139 1011.63 1010.85 -5.73 2026 140 1012.01 1012.45 -15.07 2026 141 1010.85 1013.05 -28.55 2026 142 1012.15 1013.20 -19.74 2026 143 1011.70 1012.55 -18.21 2026 144 1010.19 1012.80 -31.69 2026 145 1011.06 1012.85 -25.41 2026 146 1013.30 1012.45 -5.19 2026 147 1013.80 1013.10 -6.34 2026 148 1012.81 1014.30 -23.11 2026 149 1011.31 1014.15 -33.46

It’s already positive (~+1.7)as per the latest CFSv2 initialization posted above. That was well predicted on that insane 0Z 5/25 run as one can see.

Not surprisingly being that the crazy high 0Z 5/25/26 run was likely the strongest CFSv2 ensemble mean +AAM prog since at least 2023, it has come way down since. As I’ve said a number of times, it’s the CFSv2 long range and thus while worth following and posting, s/b taken with a huge grain. 0Z 5/25/26 run: mean peak ~+3.5 late June! 12Z 5/28/26 run: mean peak way down to only ~+1 in late June: like night and day!

Holy cow!! I just got home fortunately. Before that: Roads flooded, visibility near 0, driving no faster than 30 mph on the highway, flashers blinking….but made it! But something I’ve never seen before happened: water started dripping from between the top of the windshield and the roof! Fortunately I had a small towel to dry most of it up pretty quickly once I got home. After examining from the outside, I could see a portion of the rubber molding around the top of the windshield is sticking up a little. The great news: I got ~1” of rain, my heaviest since May 2nd! The recently redug ditches nearby handled the heavy rain quite well, keeping my street from flooding. I had complained to the city about it flooding in all heavy rains. Sometimes it pays to make phone calls. The radar showed what almost looked like a mini circulation.

Many areas improved as expected. But they did extend the exceptional to more of the SAV area as NorthHills predicted. However, if the forecasts verify well, even this area will improve some there on next week’s map.

Same here once again: This evening has been the ultimate tease with my having to travel ~8 miles west, where I drove into heavy rain from a band of thunderstorms. A little NW of there, there actually was a FF warning! Pt. Wentworth, Pooler, and Bloomingdale, all in NW Chatham county, got very heavy rain with 3-4” in some cases (all in <2 hours)! Even KSAV finally got some rain. I was hopeful that the band would soon push to my house. But as I drove back home, I noticed that the rain stopped, the roads were dry, and the sky no longer was threatening. Then when I got home, I saw that no rain had fallen. And now it looks like the atmosphere has stabilized with radar looking unimpressive. So, unless things change later, this may end up still another dry day at my place. But even if so, I remain hopeful for tomorrow and especially the weekend.

The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week: Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week: Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

Another day, another ~trace of rain since midnight. Only ~0.30” of rain here in 3.5 weeks! I kid you not. This area and nearby has been about the driest in the entire SE over that period (since May 3rd). Even KSAV has had only 0.25” May 3rd-26th! That’s the driest there for that period since 2011. But alas, I’m still looking forward to a much wetter pattern locally. In addition to chances Wed/Thu, Fri-Tue is looking to be quite wet. So, I remain optimistic. Edit: Downtown CHS has also been very dry for the same period with a mere 0.17”! Like for here, the sea breeze has been keeping most of the shower activity inland for this week so far.