GaWx

Chris, Keep in mind that the mild 2015-6 avg. in the E US was so heavily dominated by the warmest Dec on record in many locations. I assume you realize that Jan-Feb wasn’t mild in the E US outside of New England with Jan actually being chilly VA S and SW:

To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong. I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7. So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.

To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong. I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7. So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.

Unfortunately, TAO doesn’t have buoy data for 160W. It has them at 170W and 155W. For July of 2015, TAO does confirm that 30C didn’t make it as far E as 155W. But it did make it to 170W at 2N and 2S though not to 5S: 2N: avg ~30.0C https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2n170w_dy.ascii 2S: avg ~30.2C https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2s170w_dy.ascii But it was <30C (~29.8C) at 5S: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst5s170w_dy.ascii ———————————— How does July 2026 compare to July 2015 at 170W? 2026 at 2N: avg ~30.35C or ~0.35C warmer than 2015 https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2n170w_dy.ascii 2026 at 2S: avg ~30.60C or ~0.40C warmer than 2015 https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2s170w_dy.ascii 2026 at 5S: N/A..so can’t compare ——————— Summary: TAO confirms that 2026 is currently notably warmer (~0.4C) than July 2015 at 170W. But the avg tropical SST has also warmed since 2015. But it hasn’t warmed by as much as it’s closer to 0.25C warming, which tells me that July 2026 is warmer than July 2015 at 170W by 0.15C even on a relative basis.

I hit 100.9 at home at 2:24PM today and then 101.1 at 2:35PM, which are the hottest I’ve seen on my thermometer so far this summer! The good news though is that I’ve already heard thunder and prospects for a much cooler late afternoon than the prior 3 days are very high due to outflow boundaries from nearby thunderstorms at the least, and probably also actual rainfall. It has already dropped to back quite a bit with 96.9 as of 2:51PM due to increased clouds and popups nearby. ————— Edit 6PM: Thunderstorm incoming here. 7:10PM update: that gave me a very nice 1”+ over the last hour, heaviest day of rain since June 18th. This is already enough to allow me to stop the 3 times a week watering for now. Only light rain now. But looks like there will be additional significant rains starting soon per radar.

Per NOAA in DJF (my def. of neutral PNA is between -0.25 and +0.25) 1. 2024-5 was, indeed, very +PNA with a whopping 72 of 90 days being +PNA vs 18 neutral PNA and zero -PNA! That’s amazing for La Niña! Going back to 1949-50, the only other DJF without a single -PNA day was 2002-3! 2. 2025-6 was actually a more typical La Niña with more -PNA than +PNA: 49 -PNA, 14 neutral PNA, and 27 +PNA. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

Ray, Adam, and others, I’m trying not to take sides. I just want the great discussion back in the main thread. Would y’all please take this fight to here in banter? TIA @snowman19

Ray, I have no issue, whatsoever, in anyone emphasizing the significance of the restrengthening -PDO, especially since I very recently posted about the up to date WCS PDO plunge. But it got out of hand from there and I’m trying to do whatever I can to get it back on track. That’s why I’m responding to your post here in banter. I’m not taking sides but just want that great thread to get back on track with high quality discussion.

Folks, this thread has had great met. discussion recently. Please don’t let it get out of hand. Because this is my favorite met. thread at this BB, I’d appreciate it if the El Niño banter thread were used instead for certain posts, which is easy to do by quoting a post from here and responding to it at this link:

1. Today it hit 100 for the high at KSAV for the 3rd day in a row, which hadn’t happened since that unforgettable record hot late May of 2019!2. Although the chance wasn’t even mentioned since it was only 10%, the Savannah area had sudden evening pop-ups as a result of an outflow boundary coming S from earlier SC convection that collided with a W moving seabreeze per radar. It’s so cool to see these collisions! At my home, I had a big temp. drop along with gusty winds and loud thunder. Several gusts to 43 mph were measured just off of Tybee. I had two short periods of rain, but together they amounted to only ~0.01”. Other areas in the county like to the SW, to the S (Montgomery), and to the SE, especially Skidaway Island, had significant to heavy amounts. As a matter of fact:PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1042 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1015 PM RAIN 1 NE SKIDAWAY ISLAND 31.95N 81.04W 07/11/2026 M2.51 INCH CHATHAM GA MESONET UGA34 REPORTS 2.51 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS.

Looking at model SLP forecasts, I see a near certainty that the current -SOI streak will make it to 67+ days. That would then make it the 3rd longest -SOI streak on record (back to 1991). Will it make it past 72 days? That’s too far out to predict with confidence right now. But that appears to have a decent chance as of now.

I just researched it. CMCC is an Italian climate model. I can’t find verification data, but +5.3C monthly peak isn’t going to happen on a RONI basis and almost certainly not even per ONI. If there had been other models near that, I might have given it a little more consideration. But with it 1.4C warmer than the 2nd warmest on that list and with that 2nd warmest, itself, already forecasting >1C warmer than the current record warmest, I find it hard to consider it even remotely possible.

But for just 80N+, it is quite cold overall! Below is a closeup of just the 80N+ portion showing that overall it’s quite cold: 1. only ~1/7 is in warmest 1/2 of years vs ~6/7 in coldest 1/2 2. -a little >50% is in 4 coldest colors meaning coldest 11 of 87 -but only ~6% is in warmest 11, which is <1/8 the size of coldest 11 3. -~25% is in coldest 3 of 87 -but only ~1% is in warmest 3 of 87, which is a mere 1/25 of the size of coldest 3

100.0F right now (4:48PM) at my home!

After rising to -0.19 on June 24th, the WCS daily PDO has since plunged and is as of July 9th down to -1.50, which is the lowest daily PDO since way back on Nov 8th!