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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Also, -3/24/1983 Miller A Gulf coast major snowstorm that crossed over N FL and then offshore the SE -2/8-10/1973: historic Miller A deep Gulf snow storm that crossed C FL to well off SE coast
  2. GaWx
    Thanks for that info. It seems that this has been a really bad year for Hawaii! When was the last season as bad as this? And the season is far from over! -H Lala: extreme rainfall and very strong winds to H force in some cases -TS Moke: additional heavy rains along with gusty winds only a week after Lala thus hampering recovery efforts -H Lowell: lots of damage from sustained TS force/gusts to H force W islands, significant storm surge, and very high waves
  3. GaWx
    I’ve been following this closely. CFSv2 has dropped RONI peak from +3.5 to +3.0 over last month or so due to August pause. That’s just a pause though and notable 3.4 warming has finally resumed. But I don’t see it catching back up. Thus, I’m currently at +3.0 for my educated guess. The BoM is way up at +3.6 and will likely bust too high like it did in ‘23. However, its SST anomalies are based on a dataset that’s ~0.3 to 0.4 warmer than ERSST, which NOAA uses, and which just adds confusion. Keep in mind that 1+2 has recently been strong thus making it the most E based on record for early Sept. beating 1997.
  4. GaWx
    In my two Maroon Bells posts above where I mentioned elevations, I meant I was hiking at 9.5-9.7K ft, not 11.5-11.7K feet lmao. Sorry for the typo! I came back to warm/humid GA last week. I hope to return next summer! The change hit me like a ton of wet hot bricks! @mayjawintastawm@Chinook@ValpoVike
  5. GaWx
    July ‘26 ERSSTv6 relative 3.4 was +1.333 per this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt Do you have a link to the monthly GAMSSA data? Using the image below, the July ‘26 relative 3.4 BoM is ~+1.7 meaning a difference of ~0.37 between it and ERSSTv6:
  6. GaWx
    Thanks, Mitch. That means the WCS PDO has risen ~0.92 over just the last 9 reporting days, and that’s the highest daily WCS PDO since way back on June 30th:
  7. GaWx
    This is what I predicted on 8/24/26 for monthly/trimonthly RONI peaks (+3.0/+2.8), which would still be record warm peaks. I’m sticking with these for now. Let’s see what happens. I’ll use NOAA for verification, of course: “I’m now predicting that the actual monthly RONI peak (in or near Nov) will only be ~+3.0 with a trimonthly peak only ~+2.8. That +2.8 trimonthly would still be a record warm RONI going back to 1950 beating 1982’s +2.4. So, it would still be historic for sure. But it wouldn’t be nearly as warm as the ~+3.3-3.5 trimonthly RONI peak of many runs of various models.”
  8. GaWx
    I said in my post that EVERY month since April verified significantly too warm. That’s five months in a row, not just August. I pointed out Aug because your two maps showed how much Aug had to be revised down. But April, May, June, and July also had to be similarly revised significantly down. Like for Aug, I’m talking about when each was the then current month. In other words, these were very poor forecasts considering they were then the first month. I’ve got all of the maps saved and can post them if necessary.
  9. GaWx
    In Sept of 2023, the UKMET did much better than the way too warm BoM and was about the best of all models. Sept ‘23 UKMET progged ONI peak ~+2.0, which verified almost perfectly: I’ll be anxiously awaiting the Sept ‘26 UKMET ONI peak forecast. Here’s August of ‘26: ~+3.0. Keep in mind that this is ONI, not RONI! https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina
  10. GaWx
    Yep, the BoM monthly relative peak actually rose ~0.1 over the last month to ~+3.7, very much unlike the drop of 0.5 of the CFSv2 RONI trimonthly peak. Also, it unlike most others keeps it almost that high in Dec. I expect BoM will bust significantly too warm for this progged relative monthly peak of +3.7 like it did in 2023, when it was the warmest and verified way too warm. Also, note that every month since April on the BoM has busted significantly too warm. One can even see that for Aug by comparing your two graphs: the Aug 8th run had Aug way up at +2.7. The Sep 5th run lowered it down to +2.35. (I believe that the BoM uses a different dataset anomaly that makes it warmer than NOAA as you probably realize. I think it uses the warmer CRW as a base at least to an extent. That only adds to confusion.) The BoM (AUS-Access) had a whopping +2.9 for its peak forecast in its Sept ‘23 run! NDJ verified 0.9 too warm and DJF verified 1.1 too warm vs the NOAA ONI table seen at the link at the bottom of this post: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/
  11. GaWx
    The MEI v2 was just released for JA: +2.5 vs +2.4 for JJ. That’s the 2nd bimonthly in a row at a record high for the bimonth (back to 1979). The record high for any bimonth is +2.9. Here’s the rundown for JAs of +0.5+: 2026: +2.5 1997: +2.3 2015: +2.0 1982: +1.9 1987: +1.5 2002: +1.0 1986: +1.0 1994: +0.9 2004: +0.8 2009: +0.6 2006: +0.6 1993: +0.6 2023: +0.5 2018: +0.5 1979: +0.5
  12. GaWx
    The ONI peak in OND fell by the same 0.5 over the same period: Aug 1-10: ONI peak +4.15 Aug 30-Sep 8: ONI peak +3.65 and likely to fall further just like RONI as per the location of the blue lines So, the difference between the peaks of ONI and RONI didn’t widen.
  13. GaWx
    I know ‘26 became the most E based of any Nino on record in early Sep as I posted that here 2 days ago: Although 1+2 has warmed in Sep, it like RONI has also fallen in OND fwiw though by not as much (0.3 vs 0.5) making it slightly more E based in OND than it had before: Aug 9-18: 1+2 OND +4.2 Aug 19-28: 1+2 OND +4.0 Aug 29-Sep 7: 1+2 OND +3.9
  14. GaWx
    Heavy showers have moved from offshore W to my home at 1:40AM, a total surprise! Edit 11:45AM: Follow-up: I’ve been getting more showers moving W from offshore on and off since ~10AM to add to what I got late last night. I’ll check later to see if all of this added up to all that much. Edit #2: Heavy showers moved W from offshore to my home at 2:25PM. Edit #3; More showers moving in at 5:10PM. I’m at ~0.35” for all of 9/9 as of 8PM.
  15. GaWx
    The CFSv2 progged RONI peak continues to drop steadily with more drops likely: 7/22-31: ASO/OND +3.5 8/9-18: OND +3.45 8/19-28: OND +3.2 8/29-9/7: OND +3.0 with most of the blue lines (most recent 8 runs) lower
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