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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    As expected, today is a +SOI (+2), thus ending the -SOI streak at 91 days. Thus, the 100 day streak of 1998 is safe.
  2. GaWx
    12Z UKMET still has a low end TS: 12Z UKMET:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.2N 36.7WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 12.08.2026 48 10.2N 36.7W 1010 260000UTC 13.08.2026 60 10.9N 38.4W 1009 281200UTC 13.08.2026 72 11.0N 41.4W 1009 300000UTC 14.08.2026 84 11.5N 44.1W 1009 301200UTC 14.08.2026 96 12.8N 46.9W 1009 330000UTC 15.08.2026 108 14.4N 50.2W 1010 361200UTC 15.08.2026 120 15.8N 54.2W 1011 390000UTC 16.08.2026 132 17.6N 57.5W 1009 411200UTC 16.08.2026 144 18.9N 60.8W 1008 410000UTC 17.08.2026 156 20.0N 63.8W 1008 331200UTC 17.08.2026 168 21.4N 66.5W 1008 35
  3. GaWx
    If so, Feb would seem to be the best opportunity per models and analogs with a mild Dec and in between Jan.
  4. GaWx
    Mainly for entertainment: The image below is the TT 2m mean of the last 12 CFSv2 ops for Feb ‘27. It is extremely cold from the C Plains to the SE US with anomalies of -8 to -11 F even vs 1984-2009 climo, which is a bit colder than 1991-2020! It’s just about as cold there as the frigid Febs of 1978, 1958, and 1905 and is a bit colder than Febs of 2015, 2010, 1968, 1963, 1947, and 1902. So, it is the coldest Feb there since 1978. It isn’t quite as cold as the record coldest, 1895:
  5. GaWx
    1982-3 and 2015-6 are two super strong ones with both a +QBO and descending solar fwiw. 1957-8 was a super strong with a +QBO and was barely after peak.
  6. GaWx
    Yesterday’s NOAA weekly release for relative 3.4 came in at +1.8, which is the warmest early August on record back to 1982: 29JUL2026 3.2 2.1 1.5 0.2 05AUG2026 3.3 2.4 1.8 0.3 ———————— How does this compare to 1997? 06AUG1997 3.9 2.3 1.6 0.3 —————— How does this +1.8 for 3.4 compare to others for weeks centered near August 5th? 2026 +1.8 2023 +0.4 2015 +1.1 2012 +0.7 2009 +0.4 2006 +0.2 2004 +0.7 2002 +0.7 1997 +1.6 1994 +0.8 1993 +0.4 1991 +0.7 1990 +0.4 1987 +1.2 1986 +0.3 1982 +1.0 The earliest any of these reached +1.8 is August 20, 1997.
  7. GaWx
    0Z UKMETNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.6N 37.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 72 10.1N 38.8W 1011 251200UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.6N 41.9W 1011 270000UTC 14.08.2026 96 11.4N 44.8W 1011 291200UTC 14.08.2026 108 12.5N 48.2W 1011 290000UTC 15.08.2026 120 13.8N 51.7W 1012 321200UTC 15.08.2026 132 15.9N 56.4W 1011 380000UTC 16.08.2026 144 16.8N 60.2W 1011 401200UTC 16.08.2026 156 18.9N 63.7W 1009 510000UTC 17.08.2026 168 20.5N 65.9W 1008 35
  8. GaWx
    The image below is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks! ——————— Looking at Feb, alone, the progged coldest month: Mainly for entertainment: The image below is the TT 2m mean of the last 12 CFSv2 for Feb ‘27. It is extremely cold from the C Plains to the SE US with anomalies of -8 to -11 F even vs 1984-2009 climo, which is a bit colder than 1991-2020! It’s just about as cold there as the frigid Febs of 1978, 1958, and 1905 and is a bit colder than Febs of 2015, 2010, 1968, 1963, 1947, and 1902. So, it’s the coldest Feb there since 1978. It isn’t quite as cold as the record coldest, 1895:
  9. GaWx
    This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!
  10. GaWx
    12Z UKMET: notably further WSW than prior run as it ends as a TS at ~140 miles E of N Leewards moving WNWNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.9N 34.7WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 12.08.2026 72 10.8N 36.0W 1010 260000UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.3N 38.3W 1010 261200UTC 13.08.2026 96 10.7N 40.9W 1010 280000UTC 14.08.2026 108 11.1N 43.9W 1010 291200UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.8N 47.0W 1010 290000UTC 15.08.2026 132 12.9N 50.1W 1010 291200UTC 15.08.2026 144 14.5N 53.5W 1011 320000UTC 16.08.2026 156 16.0N 56.7W 1011 371200UTC 16.08.2026 168 17.4N 59.9W 1010 39
  11. GaWx
    Follow-up: Today’s SOI is -10, which makes the current streak at an amazing 91 days, 2nd only to 1998’s 100 days for longest on record back to 1991. I’m predicting that tomorrow’s will be a +SOI, which would mean the streak ends at 91 days.
  12. GaWx
    Now the further E one is orange (40% within 7 days). The 0Z UKMET is back to developing this (12Z TC was from the further W TW): 0Z UKMETNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.3N 35.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 96 9.1N 36.4W 1010 231200UTC 13.08.2026 108 9.8N 38.0W 1010 280000UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.1N 40.2W 1010 281200UTC 14.08.2026 132 12.6N 42.5W 1010 320000UTC 15.08.2026 144 15.0N 45.6W 1011 331200UTC 15.08.2026 156 17.0N 49.5W 1011 370000UTC 16.08.2026 168 18.3N 53.4W 1012 41
  13. GaWx
    8/8 12Z CFS: not as strong with none 4+ til Sept 4th:
  14. GaWx
    12Z UKNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.0N 53.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 12.08.2026 96 12.0N 53.2W 1012 260000UTC 13.08.2026 108 12.5N 56.2W 1010 281200UTC 13.08.2026 120 12.7N 60.3W 1010 290000UTC 14.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING
  15. GaWx
    Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg 0Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.6N 33.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 13.08.2026 132 12.6N 33.9W 1011 340000UTC 14.08.2026 144 13.0N 38.3W 1011 281200UTC 14.08.2026 156 14.1N 42.3W 1011 320000UTC 15.08.2026 168 15.4N 47.2W 1012 36
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