GaWx

Fantastic forecast, Ray, that was spot on other than being slightly too slow!

I’m glad the expected last minute weakening verified well saving from a MH landfall, but realize getting cat 1-2 H effects is of course still a big impactful event (I know first hand). Interestingly per Dr. Knabb, that same strong shear that caused the dramatic weakening just before landfall actually caused the worst of the thunderstorms/wind gusts (solid cat 2 gusts) to be in your area in the NW eyewall (where Stephanie Abrams great coverage was). It’s almost as if the NW eyewall weakening lagged behind. She said she had never seen so much lightning in an eyewall, which typically has limited lightning due to the upper atmosphere being too warm for as much ice in the clouds vs typically much more lightning in outer bands as Dr. Knabb explained. I thought TWC coverage was excellent between her, Cantore showing storm surge and sudden shift to warming S winds off Gulf in E eyewall, and Dr. Knabb.

Due to the pressure gradient between Isaias’ remnants and the wedge, along with sig. ongoing rain, together with a secondary astronomical tidal max due to the new moon, the NE winds were long and strong enough to produce moderate coastal flooding in CHS and minor S of there to Ft. Pulaski. 0842 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W 10/10/2026 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.76 FT MLLW (2.00 FT MHHW) WAS OBSERVED AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE COASTS OF CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.5 FT MLLW (1.74 FT MHHW) IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

In my area overnight, we got some beneficial rainfall from rapidly N moving scattered convection. Per Cocorahs, there was ~0.75” in the area. I’ll check my gauge later. Winds were brisk but no big deal as expected (highest gusts low 20s). Sun is peaking through. The sun will eventually lead to sig. instability, which will fuel scattered or bands of tstorms this afternoon, some of which could be severe with a couple of tornadoes possible.

Per this chaser who was right in the eye, the lowest SLP was 976.2 mb: https://twitter.com/JustonStrmRider/status/2108736015250702614?

What was the actual lowest SLP at landfall ? -Lowest Destin SLP was at 8:20PM CDT per this link at ~982 mb (28.99” altimeter setting): -As this shows, winds were NNE at landfall time at Destin. That says landfall was just E of Destin. -Per Dr. Knabb per Cantore’s report of winds shifting to S off the Gulf at Miramar Beach before and during landfall time says landfall was just W of Miramar Beach. -There are 8 miles between those 2 locales. Thus, a good estimate is that landfall was 4 miles E of Destin. -How much lower than Destin’s 982 mb would SLP be 4 miles to the E? Anyone have a guess as to the gradient over those 4 miles W of the center?

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 900 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IMPACTING THE GULF COAST AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND... ...900 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... NWS Doppler Radar data and surface observations indicate that Hurricane Isaias now has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (160 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 978 mb (28.88 inches). A NOAA National Ocean Service station in Panama City Beach, Florida, recently reported a wind gust to 83 mph (134 km/h) and a sustained wind of 72 mph (116 km/h). This will be the final hourly position update for Isaias. The next full forecast advisory for Isaias will be issued at 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 86.4W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 830 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DESTIN FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IMPACTING THE GULF COAST AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND... NWS Doppler Radar data indicate that Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, around 830 PM CDT (0130 UTC) with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.67 inches). A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge in Panama City Beach, Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.6 feet above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. A wind gust to 116 mph (187 km/h) with a sustained wind of 91 mph (146 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station near Santa Rosa Sound, Florida. A wind gust to 100 mph (161 km/h) with a sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherSTEM station near Pensacola, Florida. SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 86.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

Landfall Destin officially just now.

Check this out as of 9PM EDT at Destin with center just offshore likely just to their SE based on NE wind: DESTIN LGT RAIN 71 70 96 NE39G67 29.08 FOG That’s 984 mb.

Per Dr. Knabb: The strongest winds are currently on the NW-W side of the center due to how the strong southerly wind shear is interacting. Interesting.

Josh just posted from Okaloosa Island, FL: https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1515937730580171&id=iCyclone

New JMA H5 winter maps from NE forum post: this is what it appears to me that the maps are showing DJF: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO Dec: slight +PNA, ~neutral EPO, slight -AO to neutral AO, slight +NAO Jan: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO Does anyone disagree with my opinion on what these maps are showing for these indices?

The last 10 days of the PDO have had a decent rise overall though nothing extreme:

Thanks. Whereas for TCL they’ve got a TS warning, they didn’t ever predict TS conditions for ATL. Instead they have a high wind warning: