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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris. Related to the PDO, I saw this quote today: “Waters around Japan have been cooling quite a bit lately while warming north/northeast of Hawaii.”
  2. GaWx
    The fairly reliable S stream super-Nino fire hose pattern doesn’t typically start til after the end of the active part of the tropical season, i.e. not til November usually.
  3. GaWx
    The WCS daily PDO has increased from -1.4 on May 27th (per the WCS tweet being quoted) to -0.3 on June 22nd! Folks need to keep in mind that these can fluctuate a good bit from week to week. Regardless, this 1.1 rise is notable and it did occur during a significant strengthening of El Niño:
  4. GaWx
    Indeed, this latest CFS mean has about the strongest 3.4 yet whether relative or not: Relative now peaks at +3.0C in BOTH SON and OND for the first time that I’ve seen: Of the ones I’ve saved, the prior highest CFS was this one from June 1st. It was also +3.0C in OND but was only +2.9C in SON:
  5. GaWx
    The Apr-June of ‘26 MJO has been about the most left-sided of any Apr-June since records started in 1975: 2026: Closest years were: 2021: 1991:
  6. GaWx
    Interestingly, since that WCS tweet was made on 5/28/26 showing the then latest WCS PDO (5/27/26) down at -1.40, then near a 6 month low, the WCS PDO has risen nearly 1 in just 25 days while El Niño has gotten much stronger to -0.48:
  7. GaWx
    My progs were right this time: 1+2………3…….3.4…….4 29APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 03JUN2026 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 17JUN2026 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  8. GaWx
    The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall: This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:
  9. GaWx
    The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues to have as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall: This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:
  10. GaWx
    Thanks, Ray. Based on model consensus and even after reducing the avg prog as a BC being that June model run avg has tended to verify too warm, especially Euro, I’m thinking RONI/ONI peaks will likely be at the higher end of your range or warmer. Models are leaning toward an OND peak.
  11. GaWx
    I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there.
  12. GaWx
    I had ~0.05” yesterday evening, which brought me up to ~4.4” MTD.
  13. GaWx
    I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report.
  14. GaWx
    Euro progging peak of impressive +1.4 Oct, which would beat 11/1997 record of +1.3! However, avg IOD has been rising with CC and thus in theory would need to be adjusted down to be comparable and would be < the +1.3 of ‘97. Otherwise, even the adjusted IOD prog could very well be 2nd strongest on record! IOD data back to 1870, which shows the ‘97 record and longterm rise: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data
  15. GaWx
    Further to my post above, the 0Z 5/25 fcast had a mean +3+ for now vs actual <+0.5! These like to overshoot severely:
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