GaWx

I started following the model consensus of 2m temps for the high Arctic regularly since May. The majority of the time through early August they initialized with a mean of BN fwiw.

Thanks for posting about this. After reading your post, I decided it would be worthwhile to check out another forum (which includes other pro-mets): https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php I read hundreds of posts in their “The 2026 melting season” thread. The first post I saw mentioning the unusually cold DMI 80+ N temperatures was on 5/25/26 (post #268) on the following page (p. 6) by very experienced pro-met Niall Dollard: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.250.html Niall said, “I suspect we will see a rapid increase on the DMI N80 graph in the next day or two, as that deep low advects warmth into the general DMI N80 area near the pole. Unusually, the daily mean has been below the 1958-2002 mean for much of the month of May.” ———————— Then go to p. 9 and look at post #474 on 7/16/26 from pro-met Glen Koehler in here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.450.html Glen said: “The DMI 80N values are unprecedented. I looked at every annual chart for 1958-2026, and no other year has such a large and prolonged period of below 2C temperature during June and July.” and ”The 2026 DMI 80N chart is so anomalous that it makes me wonder if a sensor or data processing change is affecting the 80N chart in summer 2026. Anoother possibility is that the slushification of the ice near the North pole is creating a different relationship between ice and 2M air temperature.” ———————— Then @TheClimateChanger, who you may recall used to go by “Frivolous” here, posted in #490 (also on p.9) as “Frivolousz21” on 7/18/26 as a reply to Glen: ”It's not from an error. It's just that there has been a relentless PV anomaly and essentially next to no unimpeded solar insolation. It's been pretty crazy. This might end up the best year for ice retention since 2006.” ———————— I went through the rest of the thread and there never was agreement on the cause. So, it remains a mystery there. I respect your knowledge and appreciate your post on this. But I plan to continue posting these DMI graphs at least until if/when there’s strong agreement in the overall pro-met community with you that 2026 really isn’t as cold relative to past years as the graphs show. —————— Today’s daily update had another sharp cooling (~1C) from yesterday keeping it colder than the blue line’s climo: I just looked at the model consensus and it is, indeed, solidly BN N of 80N. However, those same models are showing significant warming to AN very quickly. So, I’m expecting it to go back above the blue line within just a couple of days at most.

Fay was again downgraded to a TD and looks like it is dissipating. However, the 12Z UKMET restrengthens Fay to a TS this weekend that then comes within 175 miles ESE of Bermuda. I’m not yet buying this, but I’m not assuming anything with the Energizer Bunny that is Fay. This is the 3rd run in a row near Bermuda and the umpteenth run in a row that keeps the Energizer Bunny going: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 47.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 29.09.2026 0 24.3N 47.1W 1013 22 0000UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21 1200UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.0N 51.2W 1014 23 0000UTC 01.10.2026 36 23.0N 53.1W 1014 23 1200UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.8N 55.4W 1015 26 0000UTC 02.10.2026 60 24.4N 57.2W 1015 26 1200UTC 02.10.2026 72 25.6N 59.1W 1014 28 0000UTC 03.10.2026 84 26.5N 60.6W 1013 30 1200UTC 03.10.2026 96 27.5N 61.9W 1011 32 0000UTC 04.10.2026 108 28.7N 62.3W 1011 33 1200UTC 04.10.2026 120 30.1N 62.2W 1010 36 0000UTC 05.10.2026 132 31.5N 61.9W 1010 36 1200UTC 05.10.2026 144 33.1N 61.0W 1009 39 0000UTC 06.10.2026 156 35.1N 59.4W 1008 32 1200UTC 06.10.2026 168 37.5N 56.2W 1006 34

It’s beautiful at ATL with low 80s, sunny and dewpoints near 50. The Braves are playing in the first game of the playoffs in this beautiful wx. It’s currently 1-1 in the middle of the 3rd. Go Braves!

If I had added another El Niño to the list, it would have been 1991, which did average slightly BN Sep 28th-Dec 31st and thus is the coldest strong to very strong Nino at 80+ N for 9/28-12/31 averaged out:

What about the very cold 1987, which peaked higher (+1.3) although early (JAS/ASO)? Are you not counting it due to early peak?

Coldest 1958-2023 at 80+N for El Niño for aggregate period Sep 28th-Dec 31st: 1987: coldest 1976:2nd coldest 1968: 3rd coldest Others that were also cold overall but not top 3 cold: 1979: 1977: 1963: 1958:

I’ll check. But first tell me this: do you mean around the current time (say, the same day (Sep 28th) or late Sept through Oct) or do you mean also later?

2011 was moderate La Niña while 2000 was weak La Niña. Also, both were coming off of a prior year’s Niña.

Recent Josh update on Polo on a farm he was staying at on Baja: includes a nice video of the peak as well as aftermath, which shows that people/farm animals weren’t injured despite significant damage to the farm. The main house he was staying in handled it well though:

After having finally gotten back to slightly AN since late Aug (that was 1st time since way back in early May), note the recent drop and how cold it was yesterday N of 80N: 2026 having it this cold N of 80N on Sep 28th is per this site technically the coldest this early in the season in 30 years, quite notable! I say “technically” though because it only barely beat 2011, 2004, and 2000. Regardless, the most interesting comparison is to 2012-25, which were all much warmer/AN on Sep 28th: 1958-2002 mean: -11C 26: -13C 25: -7C 24: -9C 23: -8C 22: -7C 21: -8C 20: -5C 19: -5C 18: -5C 17: -8C 16: -7C 15: -8C 14: -7C 13: -9C 12: -9C 2012-25 mean: -7C So, regarding Sep 28th, 2026 is: 1. 4-8C colder than every year since 2012 2. 6C colder than the mean of 2012-2025 Yes, I’m mainly only talking in this post about a point in time and 80N+ is a small area in relation to the N hemisphere (only 1.5%). But it is a very important 1.5% due to Arctic ice. Also, that area is just coming off the coldest late May-early Aug back to 1958 by a good margin, implying the possibility that this overall cooling up there will have legs. I’ll keep following this to see if there’s cooling trend follow-through up there going ahead as this is quite interesting, especially due to its implications on Arctic ice since GW had lead to the greatest warming by a good margin in the Arctic. Is it possible that the massive warming up there is done at least for awhile? Could there be a new cycle that’s just started? @Stormchaserchuck1@bluewave@Wild Weather Monger

From 5AM EDT NHC discussion: Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 Corrected for Key Message number 1. Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas. Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out (WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z.There is some uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95 kt range.

Josh is about to be hit hard by very compact Polo as he was only 21 miles from the center 1/2 hour ago with only light rain and just some breezes:

Wow, the WCS daily PDO continues to plunge back down as it’s fallen to -1.74 in the midst of a record strong El Niño! How is this happening? It was -1.10 just 5 days ago.

Were in another very long -SOI streak, 47 days! https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt