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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    There’s a decent chance for a record breaking long phase 6 this month. It started in phase 6 on Aug. 3rd: The latest GEFS, one of the more reliable for the MJO in the WPAC, has phase 6 through the entire run, Aug 26th, except it has it on the border of phase 5 Aug 18-20th: The EPS has it in phase 6 through 8/23: These are the longest phase 6 periods on record (back to late 1974): 6/13-30/1984 18 days 7/28-8/18/1984 22 10/6-20/1988 15 7/15-8/4/1996 21 2/25-3/10/1997 14 11/16-12/1/1998 16 7/19-8/1/2018 14 10/13-31/2022 19 1/5-21/2026 17 So, the longest phase 6 is currently the 22 days of late July-Aug of 1984 with the 2nd longest of 21 days mid July-early Aug 1996 (both near same time of year). The GEFS is suggesting the current one could reach 24+ days while the EPS has it ending up at 21 days.
  2. GaWx
    Initial WxBell Nov ‘26- Mar ‘27 forecast looks very reasonable although I’d like to see the month to month so as to see the expected large variability from early to late as I’ve just been posting about although they did say this: The bottom line is the colder part of the winter is expected to be later, rather than in December. Temps: Snowfall:
  3. GaWx
    The TW following 92L is also making some noise on the models and is now a lemon although the 0Z UKMET has it just as a TW moving similarly to 92L into the E Caribbean: 8AM TWO: Now up to 20/30:3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
  4. GaWx
    Thank you for adding Feb of 1995 and especially 2007 to the list. Indeed, two more cold Febs and they both had warm Decs! So, the idea continues to be that a warm Dec, which is expected especially up north and especially what @snowman19has emphasized and which El Niño climo favors, has little to no bearing on how cold Feb could be. That imho tells me the best way to look toward this winter, looking at its prospects month to month. Models and analogs are emphasizing the prospect for a big range from warm start to cold end.
  5. GaWx
    Invest 92L: 0Z UKMET: only makes it to TD status for the first time in many runs:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 40.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 24 10.6N 40.2W 1011 231200UTC 13.08.2026 36 11.4N 42.5W 1012 270000UTC 14.08.2026 48 11.5N 46.5W 1012 301200UTC 14.08.2026 60 12.5N 49.9W 1013 280000UTC 15.08.2026 72 13.6N 54.3W 1012 301200UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.2N 58.8W 1012 290000UTC 16.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
  6. GaWx
    Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located around 700 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
  7. GaWx
    Here’s the mean of the 9 Decembers preceding these very cold Nino Febs: like night and day! Look familiar?
  8. GaWx
    It is usually either a 3 month or a 1 month avg.
  9. GaWx
    Thanks, Chuck. The quite cold E US Nino Febs I’m aware of are 2015, 2010, 2003, 1980, 1978, 1958, 1914, 1912, 1905, 1889, and 1885.
  10. GaWx
    It’s very likely overdone, which is why I say it is more like a dream. But IF it were to actually have an inkling of what’s to come, we could be in store for an exciting or possibly even fab Feb. It is essentially going for another Feb of 1958, one of the greatest Febs on record in the E US and this with Feb RONI way up at +1.84! The CFS RONI prog for Feb ‘27 is for a rapid collapse down to +1.5. So, is it likely? No. But is it doable? Yes.
  11. GaWx
    Due to the extreme cold anomalies progged by the CFSv2, look how cold the progged CFSv2 March ‘27 SST anomalies are off the E coast and in the N Gulf! Some areas are -5C/-9F even vs the slightly colder 1984-2009 climo!
  12. GaWx
    These amazing maps are so much fun to look at and dream about:
  13. GaWx
    Arctic ice area continues to do relatively well!
  14. GaWx
    The further E AOI is now Invest 92L. UKMET: just S of PR as a dissipating minimal TSNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 38.1WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 36 10.5N 38.6W 1010 261200UTC 13.08.2026 48 11.4N 41.6W 1010 290000UTC 14.08.2026 60 11.8N 44.6W 1011 301200UTC 14.08.2026 72 12.8N 48.1W 1011 300000UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.0N 51.9W 1011 331200UTC 15.08.2026 96 15.3N 56.1W 1011 360000UTC 16.08.2026 108 16.2N 60.5W 1010 341200UTC 16.08.2026 120 17.0N 64.2W 1010 350000UTC 17.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING
  15. GaWx
    Week 31 of worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?time=1..52&tab=line
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