GaWx

OHC and buoys both show sharp warming since early April: OHC: only ~+1.6 early April OHC: ~+2.0 to +2.1 mid April!

Today’s EW rainfall next 2 weeks: 4/27-5/3: AN to NN SE; ATL 1.5-1.75” 5/4-10: NN in SE (ATL 0.75”); wetter FL

Today’s Euro Weeklies continue to have BN next 2 weeks averaged out! 4/27-5/3: 5/4-10: We can thank this H5 for cool 5/4-10

Getting our best rains (and just about our only rains of note) since April 5th’s nearly 1/2”. Currently have a band of heavy thunderstorms coming through with some rumbles. I haven’t watered since 4/22 and this will allow me to go further without going back to watering.

Phase 1 peaked way up at ~2.73 amplitude this month. Only 2018 (also ~2.73) and 2009 (~2.75) had a higher phase 1 peak in April going back to 1975. Both were pre-Nino years like 2026.

Thanks for posting. I like how Leon Simons’ tweet shows the stats and how strong the latest CFSv2 has RONI peaking. But I don’t like that he used the word “dystopian” and said “No one is prepared.” What do you and others think?

The last of the 3 (Tue night) looks much wetter on models for S of I-85. For most of SE, Tue night/Wed system looks wettest overall.

From FFC for 3 systems including today’s: 7 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.5-2.25" NORTH OF I-85, WITH PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, DOWN TO ABOUT 0.5" IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY

Similar to 24 hours ago, the smoke here has returned though not to as much as yesterday. This should once again clear up this afternoon with the sea breeze.

The SOI has dropped back down to -11. It may drop further temporarily. However, the models are not suggesting a further sustained drop to the 3 day long -30ish level of April 9-11 in the immediate future. So far, the SOI hasn’t been overly impressively negative for an oncoming very strong Nino vs history.

Even if the KW were to verify as strongest in history (however long the recorded history of KWs is), why the “Very very massive yikes”? That wording implies to me that that’s worrisome. Why would that be something to get worried about? Are we in trouble? To me this is just more of his being over the top and not professional.

“Very very massive yikes” Oh no! What are we going to do? Will we survive? Webb is so over the top. Yikes about what?

The low level smoke has cleared up in the area thanks to a SE sea breeze. A temp of 79 F with a very dry 37 F dew point despite a steady SE sea breeze at KSAV is surrealistic. I took advantage of it with an enjoyable evening walk.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for 4/27-5/3 reversed to a somewhat wetter signal but not all of the way to what it had 2 days ago and the prior 8 days: Yesterday’s run: Today’s run: ATL back to >1”

Smoke is visible in this area due to the S GA fires.