GaWx

Thank you. Keep in mind though that it hasn’t come anywhere close to completely giving ground yet as the latest 12 run mean shows. That’s why I posted it to show its persistence for whatever that’s worth. Also, climo supports that Feb has a decent chance to be cold, especially in the S 1/2 of the US.

Further to my post above, here fwiw (maybe not much but it has been rather persistent on the general idea) is the latest 3 day/12 run averaged CFS for Feb: Feb precip:

The warmth in the E US Dec is likely based on strong ENSO/+QBO analogs and models strongly supporting that warmth. However, once you get further into the winter, the jury is still way out on E US warmth, especially MidAtlantic, Mid-South, S Plains and the SE.

The 6Z UKMET brought it back way NW to within 300 miles of NC though not quite as close as the UK runs 0Z 10/14 through 6Z 10/15 that were only 200 miles SE of NC. That now means that for the first time that ALL of the latest runs of the major globals have it affecting parts of the E coast. I wonder if this should have its own thread in the SE forum soon since the threat for a major impact on at least E NC has increased substantially. It’s also being discussed in the main tropical thread because it may very well turn out to be ST or hybrid. Edit: 12Z Icon, GFS, GFS AI, RGEM, and JMA all have it. Edit: 12Z UKMET has it but not as close to NC as the 6Z. Thus its direct effect on NC OB is more limited than 6Z and all other 12Z models pending the Euro/Euro AI. Euro/Euro AI are still not yet out.

The 6Z UKMET brought it back way NW to within 300 miles of NC though not quite as close as the runs 0Z 10/14 through 6Z 10/15 that were only 200 miles SE of NC. That now means that for the first time that ALL of the latest runs of the major globals have it affecting parts of the E coast and it may very well end up a ST or hybrid. @jconsor@vortex95

0Z CMC: 0Z JMA: 0Z UKMET like the 12Z and 18Z is well offshore.

0Z GFS has the coastal directly affecting the OB rather substantially. The 0Z Icon is similar to recent runs a bit further offshore than this GFS.

What are your thoughts about the horrible 2023 FL Keys bleaching event caused by prolonged record hot SSTs in the low 90s? Key West buoy hit an amazing 92.8F during the late afternoon of 8/2/23! Several of us here followed this disaster and posted about it: The devastation there was amplified by the persistent heat as measured by the amazingly high DHW: Two species were nearly wiped out! The good news though is that they saved genetic material from them thank goodness: However, even these coral species are not entirely lost. During the heat wave, scientists saved about 150 genotypes, a.k.a. genetic material, of elkhorn coral and 250 genotypes of staghorn. They’re stored in biobanks at the Mote laboratory and The Reef Institute in West Palm Beach, Florida. The material will be used to propagate and reintroduce staghorn and elkhorn corals once conditions are more favorable. https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/two-florida-coral-species-were-nearly-wiped-out-heat-wave

Ike is the only on the list not a MH at landfall. However, that’s a technicality because it was at the high end of cat 2 and it was also gigantic in size! I wonder how high the surge was for these devastating hurricanes in comparison: -Sea Islands of 1893 -Galveston H of 1900

Isn’t 1938 also about a very high storm surge?

18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

The 18Z GFS came well W and is thus the most threatening GFS run yet by far to the E coast with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE. Back to 12Z, the JMA has it for its first time and hits much of the SE solidly with this with much of the Carolinas and S VA getting a very beneficial 2”+ of rain the next 8 days:

18Z GFS is the most threatening GFS yet to the E coast by far with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE. The 12Z JMA has it for its first time and hits the SE US pretty potently with a very beneficial 2”+ for much of the Carolinas and S VA! Edit: 18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

The NAO is higher on today’s GEFS mean vs that of two days ago: two days ago: peaking 10/15 at +1.0 and then dropping to -1 Today peaks not til 10/19 and with that being up at +1.3 and then drops only to -0.7 followed by a quick bounce that gets back up to -0.2 on 10/27 vs it still being down at -0.9 on 10/27 two days ago @Stormchaserchuck1

The 12Z Euro still has the E coast storm next week. So, currently the 12Z run non-AI main global models with it are the CMC (its first time) and the Euro (3rd time in a row at 0Z/12Z as 6Z/18Z have yet to have it, which I could tell because 144 hours was far out enough to tell). Also, the 12Z Euro AIFS still has it.