GaWx

1. 2023 never got close to a +3 as far as I know. 2. Prior to today’s 0Z run, the highest CFSv2 progged peak mean I can recall seeing is this that I saved from 12/11/2023, which had 2 getting to +3 amp and the other 2 to +2 amp with a peak mean of ~+2.45: 3. However, this run turned out to be way off as just 6 days later it had this, a progged peak of only ~+1.45 and actual peak was only in the low +1s from other runs I saved: 4. Today’s 0Z by a good margin had the highest progged mean that I’m aware of any run I’ve seen because otherwise I would have saved them: insane progged peak probably (since can’t see green member peak) ~+3.5!! 5. But the newest run (12Z) came back to Earth quite a bit from the insane +3.5 although it’s still progging a potent peak at +2.3, which is still the 3rd highest progged peak I’ve saved: 6. Keep in mind that the first time I had seen these charts wasn’t til 2023. Thus I have no idea what it peaked at in prior strong El Niños. 7. Keep in mind that while I like to follow this guidance, it is the CFSv2. So, although well worth following, always take with a grain, especially out 2 weeks+! @Stormchaserchuck1 @snowman19

The Euro out by 1AM 365 days/yr? I sure could get behind that! I agree about the importance of knowing history to avoid repeating it. In addition to that, however, I’m worried that the influence of the almighty $ may be interfering with objectivity/logic like is often the case.

Today’s Euro rainfall for 5/25-31: still very impressive with even heavier for parts of AL/GA/SC (dark green area, which has ~3.5-4”+, is larger) although not quite as wet for E NC/Triangle/Triad as yesterday’s even though still quite wet. This would be what the drought doc ordered/dream come true. This is one of the most widespread very heavy Euro weekly rainfall maps outside of a tropical cyclone that I’ve ever seen! Many tropical cyclones don’t produce this much over such a large area! For this reason, although I’ve once again gotten nothing measurable and have had only 0.3” for the last 3+ weeks (its been like there’s a force-field here), I’m still excited about the prospects:

There’s a lot of bipartisan chatter again about making DST year-round like they tried in 1974. That was a failure due to morning darkness leading to school children being killed. So, they prematurely terminated the experiment: https://washingtonian.com/2022/03/15/the-us-tried-permanent-daylight-saving-time-in-the-70s-people-hated-it/# The reason I’m posting about it here is because that would unfortunately mean all wx models coming out an hour later than they would during standard time in winter. Can you say 2AM 0Z Euro in winter? That would be absolutely horrible. The president, once again, calls for year-round daylight saving time Joe Gatling, a golfer and a gardener, favors year-round Daylight Saving Time. “This would give me more opportunities … in golf [and] gardening]that is a little bit longer, so I’ll go for it,” said Gatling. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/president-once-again-calls-round-213659665.html

This 72 hour map shows how well much of N ATL metro did as well as much of E GA (not my area), NW 1/2 of SC, part of NC foothills/mtns and E Carolinas, portions of E TN, and some of N AL. It also shows the shaft for the immediate RDU corridor although their best 24 hour period was just prior to this as posted earlier:

More on the BoM warm bias: We remember how bad it was in 2023. But also: only 2 weeks ago, it had ~+1.15C for May (see image below) vs the latest’s only ~+0.55C in the image I posted in the previous post! It’s been doing this for 2 months and that’s the kind of thing it kept doing in 2023. We’re still likely headed for a super-Nino, but very likely not as warm as the RONI based ~+3.0C 3 month average super-super Nino the BoM is showing. It could easily be 0.5C too warm based on April/May and based on it being ~0.75C too warm based on forecasts from around this point in 2023:

The latest weekly BoM, which just extended to Nov for the first time, is forecasting a +2.9C RONI in SON. The record back to 1950 is +2.5C (1982). However, caution on the ultimate strength is advised due to warm bias as it’s been significantly too warm in April and May:

I got just a T the last 24 hours and am at only ~1.5” MTD with most of that falling 23 days ago!

A band from Carrollton to Gainesville, which includes much of the N ATL metro, as well as to the N and NE of AHN centered on Madison county, did quite well the last 24 hours. As the map shows, some other areas of N GA, including near Rome, also did well:

Parts of Johnston county have been the RDU metro jackpot winners of the last 96 hours overall with 1.5”-2”. Here’s the last 24 hours: only they got significant amounts

Today’s Euro Weekly for May 25-31 is even wetter in the SE and is close to the wettest on the entire globe for that week for land areas in terms of anomalies! This has a max of 3.5-4” over N GA/far NW SC and 2”+ for just about the entire SE, just what the drought doc ordered!

That’s consistent with this that shows a fairly modest drop over the last few weeks to ~+2.0, which I assume is just temporary before a resumption of the warming: (I believe this is based on the avg for the top 300 meters)

I’d love to have had 0.58” as I’ve had only a T total the last 3 days, which includes a T late yesterday afternoon and another T early this afternoon. After a beautiful 1.2” 18 hour long soaking rain on May 2nd, my area has been getting teased since with only ~0.25” total. But I remain optimistic for the upcoming week.

Last 3 days rainfall RDU metro area per Cocorahs reports for 24 hr periods ending ~7AM: 5/21-2: solid/best 24 hr period of last 3 overall with 0.5-1.5” for many 5/22-3: Johnston, SW Nash, S Franklin, and far N/SE Wake counties another good one for many with ok to quite good (0.3-1.25”) but W Wake, Durham, and NE Chatham <0.1” 5/23-4: widespread but only very light with heaviest only 0.06”/lightest of the 3 periods overall

Maybe I‘m forgetting, but I don’t recall seeing even a drop of rain here since at least May 13th that is until just now. I finally got a few drops (a T) a little while ago and radar suggests I could get some more. But prospects aren’t great for much more this evening. Regardless, things are looking up for the next couple of days and much of the week to come with an overall wet pattern. I’m at only ~1.5” MTD. Thus, I had recently resumed watering regularly.