GaWx

Is Mr. Bastardi accurate in saying this is the coldest CFSv2 JFM for the U.S. ever forecasted on its site (back to 2012)? Opinions about this map? Keep in mind that this is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run: Precip anoms from same run:

Don’t the messenger: I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run? Precip anoms from same run:

Baker, MT, only goes back to 1988!

Still watching Gulf early next week:

From elsewhere:Icon is the first Global that far out (this weekend) that shows low pressure forming in the Big Bend and hanging around the eastern panhandle. It gets to about 1007mb which isn’t particularly low. But it is at the surface. If it is close to being right, look for the other operational models to start going to that type of solution. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026071312&fh=3

We’re probably heading to a new warmest OHC of this Nino per this (often the far right portion of these graphs is later revised due to interpolation…so it isn’t certain yet):

Thanks, Adam. It appears that Zeke’s using ONI based climo comparisons. If he were to instead use RONI, it would still be the warmest on record but not by as much as the 0.8C that he refers to. So, it would be an easy record breaker even by RONI standards.

Yeah, the wording does sound kind of funny. Obviously, nobody can ever say what the hottest, coldest, etc. of all time/ever is in any location since that can’t possibly be known. But saying something is an “all-time record” in a location is, of course, totally different and is what the NWS is referring to. Now I’m going to get more technical: whereas one can’t possibly know the hottest or coldest ever in a location, they can know the hottest or coldest ever in a city (I’m saying “city” not “location”) if records have been kept since the city’s founding. Do you see the difference?

Nino 1+2 came in at +2.6 vs my guess of +2.7 to +2.8. Nino 3.4 rose only from +1.2 to +1.3 vs my guess of a rise to +1.4. The daily relative 3.4 OISST graph (see below) had suggested a rise of 0.2 rather than 0.1. Perhaps the rise was just under 0.15 and this rounded down to a rise of 0.1? But also, the image below of relative OISST for 3.4 suggests the relative 3.4 for last week (7/5-7/11 or the last 7 dots) was actually ~+1.5 (actually a little warmer than +1.5). So what’s going on? How come NOAA had it at only +1.3 being that they state it is OISST based? The +1.3 and this chart don’t jibe: 01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5

Chris, thanks. A rise in H5 hts in a warming world makes perfect sense, of course. Per your graph, the bulk of the rise in winter in the portion of the globe that you specified has been since the early 1990s and there’s been a rise of ~4 dm from ~530 to ~534 since then. In a warming world, we know that both the avg ridge and the avg trough H5 ht. will naturally be higher. But relative to each other, wouldn’t the differential remain ~same? I’ll make up some #s to illustrate my Q: -let’s say that in the early 1990s that the avg ridge for the entire globe year-round was 575 dm and the avg trough was 540 dm -let’s say that in the early 2020s that the avg ridge was 580 dm and the avg trough was 545 dm. The avg of each has to rise with a warming globe. -That would mean that the mean difference remained at 35 dm. So, relative to the avg trough/ridge, the avg ridge/trough wouldn’t be stronger/weaker assuming this hypothetical example were near reality

I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in these places in the NW US and I’m guessing there are others that I missed: 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places: A. How much did CC likely contribute to these? B. How much did UHI likely contribute? Example: SLC now has 200K folks. But OTOH, check out Miles City pop: still small at only 8.4K in 2020 with only a 17% increase since 1930 with records starting in 1937. Thus, UHI factor seems close to nil. Yet, they set their new all time record by 4F! —————— 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 —————— 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. Records at SLC go back to 1872! ——————— 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

How often does something like this happen in the NW US in July during a strong El Niño? I assume hardly ever. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places: 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

Chris, Keep in mind that the mild 2015-6 avg. in the E US was so heavily dominated by the warmest Dec on record in many locations. I assume you realize that Jan-Feb wasn’t mild in the E US outside of New England with Jan actually being chilly VA S and SW: