GaWx

Per JB, the reason the 2023-4 El Niño was so mild in much of the U.S. is that there weren’t the typical cold SST anomalies around Australia that often exist during El Niño as it instead was warm there. He’s expecting colder anomalies around Australia this time. Remember how the model consensus had at H5 the beautiful E US and Aleutian troughs? Opinions?

JB in recent days finally gave up on a cold E US overall 3/15-4/15. So, he’s admitting defeat regarding his forecast for an overall chilly March in the E US. He got the first week of this period right, regardless, which included a cold St. Patrick’s Day. But he’s given up on an overall cold Holy Week/Easter. However, he’s now saying, “I think there’s going to be a lot of cold air develop in April across the United States.” He’s basing this partially on the prospect of MJO in phases 2-3, which he said tend to be cold in April. (I haven’t done my own research on that.) He’s also basing it on the prospects for a -NAO and -EPO as well as a “crash” of the SOI after the TCs are done. So, he’s expecting “quite the trough” mid to late April in the E US.

Thanks, Don! This tells me that Yellowknife won’t be as cold this month as it was in March of 1964. Unlike 2026, that month was post El Nino, opposite of 2026. That month was also quite cold further N, N of 80N (<-30C): Compare that to the current March so far, which is ~-20C or >10C warmer!!

In addition to Fairbanks, cities such as Anchorage and Yellowknife, NW Territories as well as the area in between and surrounding have a chance to have their all time record coldest Marches. That’s ~2,000 miles long and ~400 miles wide area or ~800K square miles, which is ~18% of the combined square miles in Canada and Alaska or ~25% of the size of the lower 48! Does anyone have a link to monthly records for Canadian cities and more specifically Yellowknife? Anyone have a link to maps showing historic temperature anomalies by month for Canada like we have for the US? Yellowknife in March of 2026: Mean temp March 1-23: -26C Normal for entire month: -16C March 2026 so far: https://www.predictwind.com/weather/canada/northwest-territories/yellowknife/march Normals in C: https://weatherspark.com/y/2362/Average-Weather-in-Yellowknife-Northwest-Territories-Canada-Year-Round

Thanks, Don. Now it makes sense if the words “ranking of” are added before # of days of 80+. @chubbs

Hey Chuck, Looking at Mar 1-23 actuals and the NWS forecast for the next 7 days, Fairbanks has a decent shot at its coldest March on record with records going back to 1906! The current coldest mean is -6.6F (1959). The MTD mean through 3/23 is ~-13! So, even with the next week forecasted to average near +8F, the MTD may not get up to -6.6F! https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg

Hey Charlie, I looked and looked at this and still can’t see how this doesn’t have errors. What am I missing? Am I having a brain fart? Is this the # of days within March 1-22, 2026, with highs of 80+? I came back and looked again to see if my brain had been missing something. I still don’t see how a good portion of the #s on the map aren’t off. Is this mislabeled?

Phoenix though very slightly cooler still hit 100 today!

Thanks for posting these. I’ve seen similar charts showing lowered global wx related disaster costs in more recent years. Does anyone know the main reasons? Despite these drops (assuming these charts are accurate and not deceptive/being presented in proper context, which may very well be the case), are they projected to continue dropping as we continue to warm? That’s key to know.

It, of course, still remains to be seen whether there will actually be a super Nino. The last one was in reality 2015-6 as 2023-4 peaked at only borderline moderate/strong per RONI, which is now the official way of measuring. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. Most model progs are only of ONI.

I’m roughly projecting that March 2026 at Phoenix will end up 12-13 F above normal. The current warmest of any month of the year is only 10-11 F AN. Side note: the NAO for this month is likely going to end up the most positive of any month since 1950! Does a +NAO in March favor a warm SW US?

After the very pleasant chill/low dew points of the prior few days, the last 2 days were back to summer with highs of 87 at KSAV.

I agree about the longevity of the current SW heat being very notable. Related to that, Phoenix has had a high today of at least 102 meaning 5 days in a row of 102+ after not having a single high >100 on record! But regarding longevity, doesn’t that bring the very long lasting 1930s dust bowl heat into the conversation?

The March ‘26 NAO is easily headed to a record high for March (back to 1950). The current record is +1.85 (1989). Based on actual dailies March 1-22 and GEFS progs for March 23-31, I believe that the range of possibilities is +2.4 to +3.4. Remember to multiply the dailies by 2 to estimate the monthlies. The highest of any month is Nov of 1992’s +2.63. That is likely to be exceeded (75% chance as of now). Monthly NAO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table