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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    For the US averaged out, this is the coldest NDJ on any Euro July forecast back to 2019. Not only that but keep in mind they’ve averaged out too warm since 2017 (significant warm bias as more have verified too warm than too cold): ‘26: ‘25: sig. too warm E US ‘24: significantly too warm most of lower 48 ‘23: close ‘22: a bit too cold E US/significantly too warm W US ‘21: slightly too warm E US/close W US ‘20: pretty close E US; too warm W US ‘19: close -July ‘18 forecast for NDJ was a bit too warm C US to NE and close Mid Atlantic/SE US; was close in W US -July ‘17 fcast for NDJ: too warm E US, too cold W US **Edit: So, for E US, the July Euro NDJ forecast the last nine years averaged too warm in the E US 5 times, close 3 times, and too cold only once. When combined with the July forecast for NDJ being the coldest of the last 9 years, there’s little reason to favor a warm E US NDJ overall at this point based on the Euro. @snowman19
  2. GaWx
    This (NDJ) looks good to me with no suggestion of a warm NDJ in most of the U.S. Actually, H5/2m in a good portion of the E US is near the lowest in the NH! This looks fairly typical of El Niño with the coldest/warmest US anoms in the South/North: Prospects remain excellent to relieve the E US drought, which is typical of strong+ El Niño:
  3. GaWx
    On July 4th, the DMI mean Arctic temp finally reached and exceeded 0C with it at +.01C. That sets a new record latest 1st above freezing as it replaces the old record latest of June 20th, which had been set in 2013.
  4. GaWx
    July 3rd cooled back very slightly. So, the DMI 80N+ mean Arctic temp still hasn’t reached 0C! The old record latest was 6/20/2013.
  5. GaWx
    At 1:40 told me that she was in one of the worst popup thunderstorms she’s ever experienced while driving with high winds, very heavy rain, and small hail in Buckhead near Roswell Rd! Temps suddenly plunged from a sunny 90s to 72 on her car therm! It ended about as fast as it started.
  6. GaWx
    Very intense? Absolutely! One of the most expansive? No way! That along with trying to connect the developing super-Nino with summer heat made his post bad to me. But then Chris Martz had a terrible reply, himself, when he downplayed the U.S. and European heatwaves by saying “It’s called ‘summer’”. Also, he criticized Jeff’s use of the term “heat dome” for the heatwaves even though it has been used frequently in the pro-met community for decades! So, both of them, who are looking at this from opposing standpoints more or less, looked bad here imho.
  7. GaWx
    CFS 10 day mean relative prog is at a new record high prog for its Nov peak in 3.4: SON/OND peak +3.2 vs +3.1 earlier vs +2.5 record (1982): N peak +3.4 vs +3.3 earlier vs +2.7 record (1982):
  8. GaWx
    As of 10AM, Philly is 4F warmer than 24 hours ago (94 vs 90)!
  9. GaWx
    As of July 2nd per the DMI data, the mean Arctic temperature based on 80N+ has still not quite reached freezing although it was only barely below it yesterday. Going back to 1958, the latest day it first hit freezing before 2026 was way back on June 20th (2013)! Daily Mean Arctic temp. in degrees Kelvin: freezing is at 273.15 (July 2nd was 0.1C below freezing): 0260618 169 272.561676 20260619 170 272.634399 20260620 171 272.647522 20260621 172 272.469360 20260622 173 272.153870 20260623 174 271.679565 20260624 175 271.918213 20260625 176 272.421326 20260626 177 272.655334 20260627 178 272.803802 20260628 179 272.680786 20260629 180 272.732056 20260630 181 272.903717 20260701 182 272.963715 20260702 183 273.045624 https://download.dmi.dk/pub/plus80N_temperatureindex/meanT2026_running.txt
  10. GaWx
    Per this, the lowest at NYC as of 8AM today was 84: https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html
  11. GaWx
    At C Park, the lowest so far today is 84. IF that were to hold up through 11:59PM, it would tie the all time highest low there on record!
  12. GaWx
    Indeed! I’m not at all trying to minimize the heatwave in the NYC area. There has been some talk about Central Park running a couple of degrees cooler for highs than in the past due to increased foliage (showing the cooling power of foliage). Even so, 100F with increased foliage is obviously still very intense. Also, C Park had a low of only a ridiculous 82 yesterday! At C Park, the lowest so far today is 84. IF that were to hold up through 11:59PM, it would tie the all time highest low there, which goes way back to 1869!
  13. GaWx
    Whereas La Guardia did hit 104 and Newark hit 105, the official Central Park high actually was “only” 100.
  14. GaWx
    Once again the GFS (6Z) is way too hot in the extended. Even if H5 reaches the near record high upper 590s as it has, highs on July 14-15th will not reach anywhere near as hot as this shows even with the drought:6Z GFS July 14th highs: for example 112 at SAV is loltastic as that’s compared to the 105 all-time hottest on record there back 155 years! 6Z GFS July 15th highs: also not going to happen
  15. GaWx
    This jibes with my response 3 posts above yours to Jeff B.’s implied false connection of the current developing super-Nino to increased very intense heat in the E US based on his Tweet. Only the summer of 1991 was hot overall in the E US as I said, which is essentially agreed with by your lists. I’m referring to Poughkeepsie’s 102 on 7/19/1991. None of the other developing super-Ninos prior to 2026-7 are on any of your 4 lists.
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