GaWx

He should open Ruthless Chris Steak House.

I agree with your post 100% except that I would substitute 4-7 weeks for your 2-5 weeks for this early in the season per @Stormchaserchuck1if it is going to occur. So, a map at 330 hours is irrelevant. Often the initial 3 week period is actually warm.

1. A lot of it in the South is, indeed, from clouds limiting the high temps and rain leading to evaporative cooling. But there’s also dynamically induced cooling during storms due to the strong ST jet. I realize it isn’t modeling a “cold pattern” with Arctic air dominating, which I never said. 2. CWG referred to an EW H5 map at day 45 and in a blanket fashion said this was a “very warm” pattern. That same model’s 2m maps for weeks 4-6 are literally disagreeing with CWG’s “very warm” pattern. That’s what first got me to post about this. Most (S 2/3) of the U.S. is NN to BN on that model run! 3. Despite the typical climo of very strong El Niño, nothing is anywhere close to being certain especially for shorter periods within the winter. Even during very strong El Niños, there have been intervals of Arctic cold dominating though Jan/Feb have had them more frequently than Dec. For example at NYC: -1/18-24/2016 -2/11-15/2016 -1/15-20/1992 -2/9-13/1992 -12/9-14/1982 -1/16-22/1983 -2/5-13/1983 -1/6-13/1973 -2/9-18/1973 -1/25-2/7/1966 -12/12-23/1888 -2/1889 very cold -1/1-9/1878 -1/28-2/5/1878 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

They may or they may not. That remains to be seen. There is no certainty about this. Yes, Nov 1-22 (weeks 1-3) is coming in warmer than was being shown earlier. But that doesn’t mean that weeks 4-6 (Nov 23-Dec 13) will definitely do the same. I’ll add that should the current SSW actually lead to colder, that wouldn’t per @Stormchaserchuck1be expected to happen for 30-35+ days afterward, which isn’t even til early to mid Dec (weeks 5-6 on the EW). OTOH, it often is warm in the E US near and for a couple of weeks after SSWs. This is a forecasting discussion, not a crystal ball discussion.

I’m not talking about snow in the NE US or snow anywhere for that matter. The CWG post also said nothing about snow. We’re all talking about temperature anomalies. It was referring to a “very warm pattern”, which weeks 4-6 are literally not on the EW run to which they were referring.

^These on this EW run are very warm weeks in much of the U.S., weeks 1-3: OTOH: These (weeks 4-6) are not very warm weeks in much of the U.S. as the very warm is restricted mainly to Canada and the entire S 2/3 is literally NN to slightly BN: see the difference? Calling these 3 weeks “very warm” on the model is incorrect:

It isn’t a “cold pattern” by any means, but it literally is BN at 2m in the S US though on the same EW run where the cool heights are Dec 7-13 as opposed to being “very warm” and the “very warm” is actually restricted to mainly in Canada/N Plains:

That mean of the last of the weeks in the EW including the day of that cold shown in that now famous EW control post yesterday did cool off a fair bit over the U.S. vs yesterday with a colder H5: *Edited for typo* 2M: H5:

Check out the PDO: it rose 0.23 to -1.03. That’s quite a rise for just one day considering the last daily rise at least that high was way back in Feb! It has risen 0.43 just in the last 3 days:

I predict many of them will be sick and tired of rain/clouds/gloom once this winter is over although that’s much better than remaining in drought:

Based on the combo of an E based super Nino with +QBO, 1982-3 is the single best analog for DJFM. Although it was AN in the megapolis, this was no torch there with it only ~2F AN. The true torch was much further W centered on the upper MW. The S US was NN (1877-8 among others was similar): Precip: sharp deliniation between very wet SE/AN NE coast to BN to the NW and AN beyond that:

The 30 hPa QBO per ATMO Hub dropped from +17.6 in Sept to +14.0 in Oct. But I advise weenies to not take that small drop and interpret that to mean that a -QBO is going to arrive by Feb (though I expect some x weenies to do just that….be prepared ). All it is doing is oscillating within the solidly positive region (the image below shows this well). Related to that, 20 hPa and 15 hPa are still maintaining their strong status with +17.5 to +17.6. Also, the level that Paul Roundy referred to a few days ago, 70 hPa, as expected rose sharply from +2.6 to +7.0. The last 29 +cycles at 30 hPa have lasted 10 months++ and have averaged ~13 months going back to 1960. The current one started in May. Feb ‘27 would be the 10th month and May ‘27 the 13th month. Thus, I maintain my prediction that there will be a +QBO at 30 hPa through at least Feb with Feb likely lower than the current +14 but likely still at +5+ and possibly as high as ~+10. My best guess as to when it goes to a -QBO is still around May. Thus, 2015-6, 1982-3, and 1957-8 remain the top +QBO/strong+ Nino analogs ignoring where it will be based (east). If the E basedness is then incorporated, 1982-3 easily becomes the best overall analog. This image (just updated for Oct) better illustrates the current QBO status at all levels. As one can clearly see, we’re in the heart of a solid +QBO at 30 hPa that won’t end per history til at the very least 3 months after we see it first dropping to <0 at 10 hPa. The avg lag of going to -QBO from the 10 hPa level to the 30 hPa level is actually 7 months: @snowman19

Up to 30% now: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. 12Z UKMET now forms it SE of Bermuda followed by ENE movement into the open Atlantic: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.11.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 26.2N 60.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.11.2026 96 26.2N 60.7W 1000 34 0000UTC 07.11.2026 108 27.0N 59.4W 1000 32 1200UTC 07.11.2026 120 28.3N 58.7W 1000 31 0000UTC 08.11.2026 132 28.8N 56.3W 1000 33 1200UTC 08.11.2026 144 30.4N 54.0W 996 34 0000UTC 09.11.2026 156 30.1N 49.9W 992 37 1200UTC 09.11.2026 168 29.4N 45.6W 989 40

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. The too bullish as of late UKMET has had this for several runs fwiw.

Thanks, Chris. Thus based on the latest week, here’s how much lower the official relative is vs the non-relative: 1+2: 0.8 3: 0.7 3.4: 0.9 4: 1.2 So, the differences overall have been rising due to the steady warming of the global tropical waters.