GaWx

I predict many of them will be sick and tired of rain/clouds/gloom once this winter is over although that’s much better than remaining in drought:

Based on the combo of an E based super Nino with +QBO, 1982-3 is the single best analog for DJFM. Although it was AN in the megapolis, this was no torch there with it only ~2F AN. The true torch was much further W centered on the upper MW. The S US was NN (1877-8 among others was similar): Precip: sharp deliniation between very wet SE/AN NE coast to BN to the NW and AN beyond that:

The 30 hPa QBO per ATMO Hub dropped from +17.6 in Sept to +14.0 in Oct. But I advise weenies to not take that small drop and interpret that to mean that a -QBO is going to arrive by Feb (though I expect some x weenies to do just that….be prepared ). All it is doing is oscillating within the solidly positive region (the image below shows this well). Related to that, 20 hPa and 15 hPa are still maintaining their strong status with +17.5 to +17.6. Also, the level that Paul Roundy referred to a few days ago, 70 hPa, as expected rose sharply from +2.6 to +7.0. The last 29 +cycles at 30 hPa have lasted 10 months++ and have averaged ~13 months going back to 1960. The current one started in May. Feb ‘27 would be the 10th month and May ‘27 the 13th month. Thus, I maintain my prediction that there will be a +QBO at 30 hPa through at least Feb with Feb likely lower than the current +14 but likely still at +5+ and possibly as high as ~+10. My best guess as to when it goes to a -QBO is still around May. Thus, 2015-6, 1982-3, and 1957-8 remain the top +QBO/strong+ Nino analogs ignoring where it will be based (east). If the E basedness is then incorporated, 1982-3 easily becomes the best overall analog. This image (just updated for Oct) better illustrates the current QBO status at all levels. As one can clearly see, we’re in the heart of a solid +QBO at 30 hPa that won’t end per history til at the very least 3 months after we see it first dropping to <0 at 10 hPa. The avg lag of going to -QBO from the 10 hPa level to the 30 hPa level is actually 7 months: @snowman19

Up to 30% now: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. 12Z UKMET now forms it SE of Bermuda followed by ENE movement into the open Atlantic: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.11.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 26.2N 60.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.11.2026 96 26.2N 60.7W 1000 34 0000UTC 07.11.2026 108 27.0N 59.4W 1000 32 1200UTC 07.11.2026 120 28.3N 58.7W 1000 31 0000UTC 08.11.2026 132 28.8N 56.3W 1000 33 1200UTC 08.11.2026 144 30.4N 54.0W 996 34 0000UTC 09.11.2026 156 30.1N 49.9W 992 37 1200UTC 09.11.2026 168 29.4N 45.6W 989 40

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. The too bullish as of late UKMET has had this for several runs fwiw.

Thanks, Chris. Thus based on the latest week, here’s how much lower the official relative is vs the non-relative: 1+2: 0.8 3: 0.7 3.4: 0.9 4: 1.2 So, the differences overall have been rising due to the steady warming of the global tropical waters.

Thanks, Adam. Impressive! What is the second warmest in history for 3.4 absolute ~Nov 1st and what year?

The new NOAA relative weeklies are out and the record strong east basedness persists with only 3.4 not rising: 23SEP2026 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.1 30SEP2026 4.5 3.3 2.3 0.1 07OCT2026 4.4 3.4 2.4 0.2 14OCT2026 4.4 3.5 2.4 0.0 21OCT2026 4.4 3.6 2.5 0.0 28OCT2026 4.6 3.7 2.5 0.2 -Nino 1+2, 3, and 3.4 are far above any other on record for the week. -Nino 1+2’s +4.6 ties with 6/29/1983 for the all-time record for any week. -Nino 3’s +3.7 is a new record high for any week beating last week’s and 12/29/1982’s +3.6. -Nino 3.4’s +2.5 is a new record high for the week beating the +2.1 of 2015 -Nino 3.4’s highest for any week is +2.9 of 12/29/1982. There’s still no guarantee that will later be exceeded though there’s a good chance as of now.

But in terms of the IOD, Oct of ‘26 though solidly positive was very underwhelming in comparison to 2 recent years per the weekly readings: 10/2026 ~0.76 10/2019 ~1.83 10/2023 ~1.74 10/2015 ~0.83 The latest weekly bounced back only slightly from 0.69 to 0.73. At this time in these years it was much higher: 2023: 1.5 2019: 1.7 Typically, this peaks by Nov. So, if it doesn’t jump sharply within the next few weeks it very likely will never do so this Nino per past patterns. https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1793622027272

Thanks and, indeed, that’s what we all are still talking about. I understand why you say it isn’t good for most, but is there a chance this would give Cape Cod a nice snowstorm?

I have to give credit where credit is due. After nearly 4 hours, every post ITT including this one has been about a random way, way out in super lala land Euro control map. That has to be a record for an hour 912 map! That’s one amazing map to command this much attention! On a related note, Happy go back to Standard Time day! I love it for getting Euro Weeklies, 0Z Euro, and all models an hour earlier more than for anything else! I mean we’re only 3 hours from the start of the 0Z GFS!

Thanks, Anthony, for posting that. I don’t disagree with this post done by Luzerne County. What I mean by that is IF there were to happen to be an actual H5 similar to that, it could favor a snowstorm then. But, and this is very important: this is as it says just the control run for EW hour 912 (0Z on 12/9/26) rather than the EW mean for hour 912. So, this is like an op Euro at hour 912, which of course has no forecasting skill and will change notably from run to run the vast majority of the time. For that matter, I’d say this about hour 312 or even earlier of the op Euro or op anything. I know you know this, but you may not realize this is just the near worthless way out in the extended control run. They clearly want clicks and thus was a bad post by Luzerne County imho. A more informative post by Luzerne County, even though it is still way way out there, would have shown the EW means for the week covering that period, Dec 7-13: H5: 2m temps: Precip: Not the worst pattern by any means but far from great. @mitchnick

1. There may be an increased chance at an overall significant DJF averaged -AO after a Nov SSW during El Niño. I found only 4 Nino Novs with a SSW (>15 dip of 10 hPa/60N winds to <10): 1968: dropped ~37 to ~-8 on ~Nov 27th; DJF AO -2.3 (3rd lowest of all winters since 1950) 1976: dropped ~26 to ~+4 on ~Nov 15th; DJF AO -2.6 (2nd lowest of all winters since 1950) 1979: dropped ~24 to ~+6 on ~Nov 23rd; DJF AO -0.6 (31st lowest of all winters since 1950) 2009: dropped ~17 to ~+6 on ~Nov 15th; DJF AO -3.4 (lowest of all winters since 1950) So, avg DJF AO for these 4 winters was way down at -2.2 —————— 2. At least one major SSW followed during each of these 4 winters.

Per @Stormchaserchuck1the lag this early is typically 30-45 days. That would imply that any colder air coming down related to this SSW if it’s going to occur would likely not occur til early to mid Dec. However, there could always be colder periods not related to this SSW coming down earlier, of course.

Latest OISST anomalies per cyclonicwx: RONI: hardly any net change since Oct 1 (ONI graph similar): reduce this a few tenths to estimate NOAA’s weeklies. This shows no signs of heading to +3.5 as of this time, especially if one considers that NOAA’s weeklies have been coming in a few tenths cooler Nino 1+2 non-relative: only a very slight net rise since Oct 1 Nino 3 non-relative: ~0.35C rise since Oct 1 Nino 4 non-relative very little net change since Oct 1 because recent rise followed a fall