GaWx

CFSv2 latest 10 day mean of JFM 2m anomalies is beautiful fwiw: Same for precip: Whereas this looks great and I’d love for it to verify closely, it’s important to keep in mind the following for the NE US regarding 15 years of mid-July CFSv2 JFM prog verifications (2012-26): -Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12 -Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 5 yrs/33%: ‘25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) were too cold…so not a strong cold bias and thus there’s still a reasonable level of hope that it could verify well. —————————— The cold bias in the SE is even stronger: -Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12 -Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13 ————————— Interestingly, this cold JFM 2027 CFSv2 forecast isn’t a whole lot colder than the following one also made in mid-July for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold): This is what verified: so, CFSv2 was close in NE but too cold in the S 1/2 of US:

We’ll likely exceed 1997’s 72 days, which would put it as 2nd longest on record (back to 1991). But #1 (from 1998) is way up at 100 days. I have no idea if it will get that high. With that still being 33 days away, it would be quite awhile before I could even try to forecast whether or not it will be reached. Since that would be quite the accomplishment, I feel chances are well under 50% as of now. Let’s see how things go.

At just before 8PM, I started getting mainly light to occasionally moderate rain. The relevant convection had developed nearby as a result of an E moving outflow boundary colliding with the seabreeze front. But what had been a heavy thunderstorm weakened by the time it started here. So, whereas this is measurable, it still isn’t much. Edit: I got only ~0.04”.

Today, we made it to 67 straight -SOI days, which puts the current streak in 3rd place back to 1991! So, this one is behind only two from the 1997-8 Nino. Reaching and possibly exceeding 2nd place ‘97’s 72 days is likely as of now. How long will it go?

After 2 runs forming a TS from this, the last 2 runs dropped that and instead both develop something well out in the Atlantic subtropics: 0Z 7/16/26 UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 27.9N 63.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.07.2026 156 27.9N 63.9W 1014 29 0000UTC 23.07.2026 168 30.6N 66.2W 1013 31 —————————— 12Z 7/16/26 UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.4N 62.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 23.07.2026 156 29.1N 63.9W 1014 30 1200UTC 23.07.2026 168 32.3N 65.2W 1014 31

My area has had some thunderstorms pop-up with light rain starting ~2PM. This may not amount to too much.

The latest daily OISST anomaly update for 3.4 had a warming of a whopping 0.13C, which is the largest rise since June 4th. This is the kind of move that will probably be needed from time to time to get August averaged out up to the mid +2s:

Believable but will it actually happen? Nobody knows. Largest month to month warming on record is 0.85 (Jan ‘56). The largest warming on record in Aug is 0.61 (1988). Actually, the largest on record of any month July-Oct is only that 0.61. Here are the largest on record: 0.85 Jan 1956 0.84 June 1968 0.78 Mar 1951 0.73 Feb 1976 0.71 May 2026 0.68 Nov 2009 0.68 Mar 2000 0.66 May 1967 0.61 Aug 1988 0.61 Jan 1975 0.60 Oct 1991 0.60 Jan 1953 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt @Typhoon Tip

That CFS graph is referring to relative 3.4 anomalies, which are currently in the +1.3 to +1.5 region rather than ~+2.0. Actually, the official relative 3.4 for last week was only +1.3: 08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt The CFS latest 10 day mean prog has a whopping +2.3 for relative 3.4 in August! August will be a really big test to see if the progged record breaking Nino is still on track as that would require a near 1C rise from July! Going back to the start of records in 1950, there has never been a 1C+ rise within just one month. I‘m talking about any month in any ENSO. Will it actually warm that much in August?? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Unlike the very mild Feb 1878 in the upper Midwest, the E US’ warmest month of that winter was the fairly typical El Niño warmest Dec. In contrast, Feb was only modestly AN in a good portion of the NE to NN in the SE. Jan was NN to BN. Jan-Feb combined in much of the E US wasn’t mild at all and instead was largely NN (no more than slightly AN in the NE and even BN in good part of SE).

This map agrees with many of the official SE station temps being NN (and even BN in FL as Jacksonville and other official temps confirm). It also shows that the torch was centered in the Midwest and Plains with no torch near the E coast (ex: NYC was ~+1.3F, not a torch). Much of NE coast was only 1-2 F AN per the city by city official temps.

More on the not mild 1877-8 in much of the E US: NYC using 1869-1900 for normals Dec 37.4 (+3.2) AN Jan 29.9 (-0.4) NN Feb 32.3 (+1.2) NN So, DJF +1.3 NN with only Dec warmer than normal and even it wasn’t a torch https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx @csnavywx

However in the SE US, as has often been the case with super El Niño winters, 1877-8, was actually near normal (mild Dec, cold Jan, and NN Feb). For example, Asheville was mild in Dec but then had a cold and snowy Jan (8.5” from 2 storms) followed by a NN Feb. DJF averaged NN. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp Also, Augusta and Savannah averaged NN.

CFS Oct 1-10 mean prog for JFM ‘16: Actual: fairly close N tier but too cold S 1/2:

A shower with moderate to heavy rain just popped right over my area at 3PM. Edit: My total was only ~0.1”, which gets me to ~4.15” MTD.