GaWx

Nino 1+2 came in at +2.6 vs my guess of +2.7 to +2.8. Nino 3.4 rose only from +1.2 to +1.3 vs my guess of a rise to +1.4. The daily relative 3.4 OISST graph (see below) had suggested a rise of 0.2 rather than 0.1. Perhaps the rise was just under 0.15 and this rounded down to a rise of 0.1? But also, the image below of relative OISST for 3.4 suggests the relative 3.4 for last week (7/5-7/11 or the last 7 dots) was actually ~+1.5 (actually a little warmer than +1.5). So what’s going on? How come NOAA had it at only +1.3 being that they state it is OISST based? The +1.3 and this chart don’t jibe: 01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5

Chris, thanks. A rise in H5 hts in a warming world makes perfect sense, of course. Per your graph, the bulk of the rise in winter in the portion of the globe that you specified has been since the early 1990s and there’s been a rise of ~4 dm from ~530 to ~534 since then. In a warming world, we know that both the avg ridge and the avg trough H5 ht. will naturally be higher. But relative to each other, wouldn’t the differential remain ~same? I’ll make up some #s to illustrate my Q: -let’s say that in the early 1990s that the avg ridge for the entire globe year-round was 575 dm and the avg trough was 540 dm -let’s say that in the early 2020s that the avg ridge was 580 dm and the avg trough was 545 dm. The avg of each has to rise with a warming globe. -That would mean that the mean difference remained at 35 dm. So, relative to the avg trough/ridge, the avg ridge/trough wouldn’t be stronger/weaker assuming this hypothetical example were near reality

I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in these places in the NW US and I’m guessing there are others that I missed: 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places: A. How much did CC likely contribute to these? B. How much did UHI likely contribute? Example: SLC now has 200K folks. But OTOH, check out Miles City pop: still small at only 8.4K in 2020 with only a 17% increase since 1930 with records starting in 1937. Thus, UHI factor seems close to nil. Yet, they set their new all time record by 4F! —————— 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 —————— 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. Records at SLC go back to 1872! ——————— 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

How often does something like this happen in the NW US in July during a strong El Niño? I assume hardly ever. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Sunday 7/12/26: all-time records were broken or tied in at least these places: 1) Wide stretch of S MT (450 miles long): ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 2) N UT ..ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SAT AT SALT LAKE CITY, UT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2002. THIS IS ALSO A NEW MONTHLY AND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107, SET IN 1960, 2002, 2021, AND 2022. 3) E ID: THE IDAHO FALLS FANNING FIELD AIRPORTRECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES TODAY. THIS NOT ONLY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR JULY 12 OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 2002, BUT BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FANNING FIELD OF 102 SINCE RECORD KEEPING STARTED IN 1948.

Chris, Keep in mind that the mild 2015-6 avg. in the E US was so heavily dominated by the warmest Dec on record in many locations. I assume you realize that Jan-Feb wasn’t mild in the E US outside of New England with Jan actually being chilly VA S and SW:

To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong. I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7. So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.

To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong. I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7. So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.

Unfortunately, TAO doesn’t have buoy data for 160W. It has them at 170W and 155W. For July of 2015, TAO does confirm that 30C didn’t make it as far E as 155W. But it did make it to 170W at 2N and 2S though not to 5S: 2N: avg ~30.0C https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2n170w_dy.ascii 2S: avg ~30.2C https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2s170w_dy.ascii But it was <30C (~29.8C) at 5S: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst5s170w_dy.ascii ———————————— How does July 2026 compare to July 2015 at 170W? 2026 at 2N: avg ~30.35C or ~0.35C warmer than 2015 https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2n170w_dy.ascii 2026 at 2S: avg ~30.60C or ~0.40C warmer than 2015 https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2s170w_dy.ascii 2026 at 5S: N/A..so can’t compare ——————— Summary: TAO confirms that 2026 is currently notably warmer (~0.4C) than July 2015 at 170W. But the avg tropical SST has also warmed since 2015. But it hasn’t warmed by as much as it’s closer to 0.25C warming, which tells me that July 2026 is warmer than July 2015 at 170W by 0.15C even on a relative basis.

I hit 100.9 at home at 2:24PM today and then 101.1 at 2:35PM, which are the hottest I’ve seen on my thermometer so far this summer! The good news though is that I’ve already heard thunder and prospects for a much cooler late afternoon than the prior 3 days are very high due to outflow boundaries from nearby thunderstorms at the least, and probably also actual rainfall. It has already dropped to back quite a bit with 96.9 as of 2:51PM due to increased clouds and popups nearby. ————— Edit 6PM: Thunderstorm incoming here. 7:10PM update: that gave me a very nice 1”+ over the last hour, heaviest day of rain since June 18th. This is already enough to allow me to stop the 3 times a week watering for now. Only light rain now. But looks like there will be additional significant rains starting soon per radar. Update 10:44 AM 7/13: I ended up with a very nice grand total of ~1.5” yesterday (7/12), which gets me to ~1.9” MTD.

Per NOAA in DJF (my def. of neutral PNA is between -0.25 and +0.25) 1. 2024-5 was, indeed, very +PNA with a whopping 72 of 90 days being +PNA vs 18 neutral PNA and zero -PNA! That’s amazing for La Niña! Going back to 1949-50, the only other DJF without a single -PNA day was 2002-3! 2. 2025-6 was actually a more typical La Niña with more -PNA than +PNA: 49 -PNA, 14 neutral PNA, and 27 +PNA. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

Ray, Adam, and others, I’m trying not to take sides. I just want the great discussion back in the main thread. Would y’all please take this fight to here in banter? TIA @snowman19

Ray, I have no issue, whatsoever, in anyone emphasizing the significance of the restrengthening -PDO, especially since I very recently posted about the up to date WCS PDO plunge. But it got out of hand from there and I’m trying to do whatever I can to get it back on track. That’s why I’m responding to your post here in banter. I’m not taking sides but just want that great thread to get back on track with high quality discussion.

Folks, this thread has had great met. discussion recently. Please don’t let it get out of hand. Because this is my favorite met. thread at this BB, I’d appreciate it if the El Niño banter thread were used instead for certain posts, which is easy to do by quoting a post from here and responding to it at this link: