GaWx

Anthony, It’s important to be aware that the WxBell Euro EW 2m maps have a notable 2m temp cold bias as I’ve posted about repeatedly. I have an easy way to show this by posting the in-house ECMWF weeklies covering the same period and comparing to this WxBell map. Examples: -The Rockies and west coast are a very cold -3F to -10F for 2/21-3/22 on your map. What?!? -Chicago/OH Valley are -2F, Asheville is -3F, Detroit is -4F, DC/Richmond are -3F, ATL/CLT are -1F. - Now check out the ECMWF’s in-house maps for the truth: no BN on any of the maps covering the same period for the locations I listed 2/23-3/1: 3/2-8: 3/9-15: 3/16-22: So based on the truth, the Rockies and much of the West should be a bit AN instead of well BN. So, that means they’re mainly 5F to 10F too cold on WxBell! The E cities I listed should be NN in Chic, Det, Ohio Valley, DC, Richmond, and ~+1F in ATL/CLT/ASH. So, that means that these locations are 2-4F too cold on WxBell. WxBell has NYC at -4F. The truth is that they should be ~-1F. So, NYC is 3F too cold on WxBell. @donsutherland1this remains a problem

It’s the WxBell CFS, not their Euro, that has those weird issues. WxBell Euro just has a straight 2m cold bias. And you must have meant a S. Lake Michigan - departure (not Superior, which actually typically has the opposite, a relative + departure in the E portion) just as this CFS has:

Tweets are often exaggerations as we know. The new Euro for March is still mainly warmer than normal but no torch as it’s mainly only slightly AN since it’s cooler than the forecast from a month ago: Last month’s Euro for March: Today’s Euro for March: not as mild with only ~1F AN NE, 2 AN DC, Chicago, Detroit, and RDU, and 2-2.5 AN ATL/MEM for example: April also came in cooler than it had last month. I am wary, however, about WxBell Euro 2m temp anomalies having a cold bias due to their algos. So, you probably have to add at least 1F to what I said to adjust for that bias. So, more like at least 2F AN NE and at least 3-3.5 AN in the other cities I listed. So, again not as warm as last month’s forecast and not really a torch, but still fairly mild especially after the bias correction. I can’t find March by itself at the ecmwf site, itself, unfortunately.

That’s during the morning of 2/13, the morning before Valentine’s Day. I was referring to a storm on Val. Day that’s been showing up on some runs and being posted about here. Regardless, it’s still way out there and will change.

12Z GFS and Euro ask “what Val. Day storm?” They fwiw show sunny high pressure. But that’s still 9 days out, a relative eternity in relation to model accuracy.

Good point! I’m just trying to generate discussion. I know he’s always been very strongly cold-biased (due to a combo of his being a cold weenie plus cold’s much better for business/traffic/likes) and I’ve never been shy about saying so, but sometimes he ends up right. Could this be one of those times? Of course, I’m responding to a person who proudly prefers warmth based on nearly all of your recent posts and username. Nothing wrong with that, of course and you have company here and especially elsewhere. Different strokes for different folks!

This is very telling (add much of the Triad to CLT):

Posted by JB a few hours ago: Northeast likely Never Pulls out of BN pattern Opinions?

I want BN temps 365 days of the year. But keep in mind that I’m in a place that’s heavily dominated by heat and humidity and where “cold” is very tolerable and quite enjoyable. Anytime I can get an export of dry Canadian air I’m a happy camper and love being outside! A “cold” April here (say 5 BN) would be highs averaging ~73 and lows averaging 50. How much more pleasant can it be than that? Everything is relative. My main dislike is high dewpoints. Even 80s with sub 50 dewpoints are pleasant.

This has been an A+ winter in terms of excitement as well as fascinating/very interesting nearly nonstop forecast discussions! There had been more than one winter before these last 2 that were, frankly, mainly boring in the SE forecast threads.

Light snow, sleet, and graupel have been falling this morning in NE GA and also down to S Forsyth County and N and E Cobb County (N ATL burbs)! This is the winter that keeps on giving in GA!

Following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as I expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

I’m bumping this 11/16/25 post. So, following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

I’m bumping this 11/16/25 post. So, following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Haven’t you been calling for a mild E US starting in January with your 2017 and 2023 analogs? Not that what you’re saying can’t or won’t happen. But why should we believe you now? Mid Feb is actually looking warmer than normal for many areas of the E US especially away from the E coast per the EWs. But then you skip all of the way to March and even April based on what exactly?