GaWx

To add to the above, the ‘23 Jul-Sep MJO was much more MC/IO oriented than the nonexistent MC/IO of ‘26: ’23: ‘26:

Doldrums lead to ‘23 FL Keys coral disaster as it wasn’t just due to GW…it was warming of several degrees from the doldrums superimposed on background ocean warming of several degrees due to GW: Sea-surface temperatures in the Coral Sea off northern Queensland often increase during periods known as the "doldrums," characterized by weak winds, reduced cloud cover and dry, descending air. These conditions are unusual for the humid tropics, where we would typically expect plenty of cloud cover, thunderstorms and rainfall.

12Z UK: H in N ATL: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 32.7N 70.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.10.2026 36 32.7N 70.7W 1007 44 1200UTC 19.10.2026 48 33.7N 71.3W 1004 43 0000UTC 20.10.2026 60 35.0N 71.2W 1002 41 1200UTC 20.10.2026 72 36.0N 70.5W 1001 39 0000UTC 21.10.2026 84 36.0N 70.0W 1001 45 1200UTC 21.10.2026 96 36.0N 70.2W 998 42 0000UTC 22.10.2026 108 36.2N 70.5W 996 45 1200UTC 22.10.2026 120 36.9N 69.2W 992 42 0000UTC 23.10.2026 132 38.1N 66.5W 987 48 1200UTC 23.10.2026 144 40.9N 61.1W 978 67 0000UTC 24.10.2026 156 45.8N 56.8W 977 55 1200UTC 24.10.2026 168 47.9N 58.0W 996 43

Nothing’s even close to a certainty. 2026 and 2023 are not even close in magnitude and 2023 never even got stronger than high end moderate as well as being way less E based in winter (close to basin-wide) vs where 26-7 is heading: these are the official relative anoms: 1+2 3 4 3.4 2023 9 2.27 1.51 0.45 0.91 2026 9 3.94 2.97 -0.02 2.06 2023 12 0.68 1.48 0.73 1.38 2024 1 -0.02 1.15 0.70 1.03 2024 2 0.16 0.78 0.50 0.84 Also, 2026’s PDO is much less negative than 2023’s: 2023 -1.24 -1.79 -2.50 -3.13 -2.46 -2.67 -2.44 -2.02 -2.52 -1.88 -1.16 -1.20 2024 -1.48 -1.33 -1.27 2026 -0.87 -0.79 -1.18 -1.28 -1.64 -1.32 -1.35 -1.12 -0.74

The 0Z UK is nowhere near the E coast. But it has a very high end TS, which based on the 976 mb SLP might be too low: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 32.8N 71.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 18.10.2026 36 32.8N 71.4W 1010 44 0000UTC 19.10.2026 48 32.0N 70.5W 1008 42 1200UTC 19.10.2026 60 32.4N 70.3W 1008 39 0000UTC 20.10.2026 72 34.2N 70.2W 1005 39 1200UTC 20.10.2026 84 34.7N 70.0W 1002 40 0000UTC 21.10.2026 96 34.7N 69.9W 1001 41 1200UTC 21.10.2026 108 34.5N 68.9W 1000 39 0000UTC 22.10.2026 120 35.3N 68.6W 997 42 1200UTC 22.10.2026 132 36.5N 67.0W 994 44 0000UTC 23.10.2026 144 38.5N 64.9W 986 56 1200UTC 23.10.2026 156 40.2N 60.6W 980 58 0000UTC 24.10.2026 168 43.3N 53.8W 976 56

As my analysis shows above, the Oct Euro hasn’t even been close with its winter prog the last 4 years: 24 25: too warm 22 23: too cold Out of the last 9 years, it didn’t do well 6 of the 9 years. So, it’s likely pretty clueless based on this.

On 10/5, I posted a detailed analysis of how the Oct Euro did for winter for the 9 years 2017-25: Tally: -did well in 19 and esp. 17 -did pretty well 21 -did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18 -did terribly 25, 24 -too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE -NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2 -SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4

In terms of the degree of it being E based, the @griteater graph below suggests it will likely be nearest 1998 but with 1983 and 1878 not being far off. When also considering that 1998 wasn’t nearly as good a QBO match as 1983 and 1878 is unknown, perhaps 1982-3 is the best analog of these. Your thoughts?

What do you think about the possibility of unmodeled negative feedbacks eventually stopping the warming and thus causing at least the most extreme climate model solutions to end up being way overdone? Is this a realistic possibility?

Thank you. Keep in mind though that it hasn’t come anywhere close to completely giving ground yet as the latest 12 run mean shows. That’s why I posted it to show its persistence for whatever that’s worth. Also, climo supports that Feb has a decent chance to be cold, especially in the S 1/2 of the US.

Further to my post above, here fwiw (maybe not much but it has been rather persistent on the general idea) is the latest 3 day/12 run averaged CFS for Feb: Feb precip:

The warmth in the E US Dec is likely based on strong ENSO/+QBO analogs and models strongly supporting that warmth. However, once you get further into the winter, the jury is still way out on E US warmth, especially MidAtlantic, Mid-South, S Plains and the SE.

The 6Z UKMET brought it back way NW to within 300 miles of NC though not quite as close as the UK runs 0Z 10/14 through 6Z 10/15 that were only 200 miles SE of NC. That now means that for the first time that ALL of the latest runs of the major globals have it affecting parts of the E coast. I wonder if this should have its own thread in the SE forum soon since the threat for a major impact on at least E NC has increased substantially. It’s also being discussed in the main tropical thread because it may very well turn out to be ST or hybrid. 12Z Icon, GFS, GFS AI, RGEM, and JMA all have it. 12Z UKMET has it but not as close to NC as the 6Z. Thus its direct effect on NC OB is more limited than 6Z and all other 12Z models pending the Euro/Euro AI. Edit: The 12Z Euro-AI has it close to NC, but the regular Euro is actually further out than its recent runs and is near the 12Z UKMET

The 6Z UKMET brought it back way NW to within 300 miles of NC though not quite as close as the runs 0Z 10/14 through 6Z 10/15 that were only 200 miles SE of NC. That now means that for the first time that ALL of the latest runs of the major globals have it affecting parts of the E coast and it may very well end up a ST or hybrid. @jconsor@vortex95

0Z CMC: 0Z JMA: 0Z UKMET like the 12Z and 18Z is well offshore.