GaWx

OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C): What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.

“Snowy” in ATL can be ~3”+ as the average SN/IP is ~2”. Thus snowy in ATL can easily be from just one storm. More often than not, “snowy” in any particular location in the SE US away from the mountains is mainly from just one major storm along with possibly one+ minor hits. Another thing about a place like ATL or even RDU vs Marquette: a much larger % of the wintry precip is sleet or ZR when averaged out over the decades. I roughly estimate 1” of sleet is equivalent to 2.5” of snow on average. So, for example, ATL got ~4” of sleet in 2/1979 and 1/1988. They had the water equivalent, impact, and staying power of ~10” of snow. In addition, ZR doesn’t even measure as S/IP as we know. So, the 2” ATL avg tends to understate to an extent its avg wintry precip vs, say, a straight 2” avg snow.

History strongly supports a +PDO by no later than Nov as 94% of the 36 mod+ Ninos since the 1850s had a +PDO in Nov or earlier as only 2 didn’t have a NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4.

It’s endless summer here with a very uncomfy 94 high at KSAV. I haven’t had significant rains at my place since way back on July 14th! However, Mon into the evening is looking promising. If that weren’t to deliver, it would be sprinklers time again.

This image shows well that ‘97 was much more E based on July 19th:

Chris put out this yesterday. I hate his confrontational juvenile behavior, which is totally unnecessary. Ignoring that and acknowledging that 1936 was made much worse due to very dry soils/drought, does he have a valid point about a possible double standard in the treatment of 1936 and 2026 European heatwaves? After all, they were both regional and 1936 covered a much larger area I believe: This is the 2nd part: The recent European heatwave was also regional. But for whatever reason, that is supposedly “incontrovertible proof” of catastrophic, rapid global climate change. I really want to know how any person can have this level of mental retardation. *Also, I’ve been reading some things regarding the magnitude of the Obs Time Bias possibly being exaggerated. I’ll probably post some of this later to get your thoughts.

Out of 36 mod+ Ninos since 1850s, only 2 didn’t have NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4!

Through July 24th, it’s the wettest on record since way back in 1941!

To compare to the prior Nino, July was similarly strongly -PDO and it hit most neg ~Oct 1st. Then it rose to a more moderate -PDO:

WCS PDO is still dropping and is now down to -1.81, lowest since early Oct:

Thanks, Don. It will be interesting to see if 2026 beats 1998’s 100 days! As you said, the record of the daily SOs goes back only to 1991. I wonder if there’s any way to find dailies pre-1991. Based on the monthlies, I’d say that 1982-3 would have a 50% or higher chance of having a streak exceeding 100 days if the dailies could be found. Why? These monthlies, especially Nov-Mar: 1982 8 -22.2 1 1982 9 -20.0 1 1982 10 -20.5 1 1982 11 -30.0 1 1982 12 -22.6 1 1983 1 -31.4 1 1983 2 -35.7 1 1983 3 -25.7 1 Another good candidate per the monthlies is 1905, especially Mar-June: 1905 2 -18.5 3 1905 3 -27.7 1 1905 4 -38.2 1 1905 5 -34.3 1 1905 6 -27.7 1 1905 7 -19.8 1 One last good possibility is 1896, especially May-Aug: 1896 5 -38.8 3 1896 6 -27.0 1 1896 7 -19.1 1 1896 8 -21.0 1 1896 9 -18.2 1 1896 10 -19.2 1

Yep, extent is doing worse than area as compared to recent years.

-SOI has reached 74 straight days! That will continue supporting robust warming of Nino 3.4.

Parts of Houston metro received significantly more rainfall from Bertha than models had with up to ~5” vs mist progs of ~0.75”. Here’s the final advisory: BULLETIN Remnants Of Bertha Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 ...BERTHA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 96.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES Remnants Of Bertha Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Surface observations over eastern Texas indicate that Bertha no longer has a well-defined circulation, and has opened up into a trough. Therefore, the system has dissipated, and this will be the last advisory. Bertha's remnants will likely continue to produce some locally heavy rainfall over portions of eastern and southern Texas, where isolated flash flooding is possible overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 30.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Most Senators were alive during the 1974 year-round DST disaster that was thus quickly reversed. And can you imagine not getting the Euro til 2AM during the crucial winter season?