GaWx

It may be Twitter bait. But that’s not because they don’t go out far enough. Rather, it’s that that this Tweet’s runs are “bias corrected” versions, which have more often than not not been making the correct adjustments based on my following them. Here are the corresponding non-bc versions, which are very bullish for phase 8 within their runs: 11/26 ext GEFS: 8 day long phase 8 mid Dec (12/13-20) with a potential 2nd move into phase 8 a few days after this ends: 11/26 ext EPS: extremely bullish 15 day long phase 8 (12/13-27), which would be 2nd longest of all time on record for any month:

I agree 100% about the realistic possibility that the models have been slow to react to a more -AO/-NAO as potential effects of the current SSWE. Why? I have to look no further back than the 2/16/2023 major SSW. Even on the run of the day of the actual strat. reversal the GEFS was still clueless about the impending drop of the NAO late Feb into mid March: 2/16/23 (day of SSWE) GEFS NAO forecast through 3/2/23 was dead neutral (0) through 3/2/23: Actual daily NAOs: look how the GEFS run from the day of the SSWE was way too positive for Feb 26th-Mar 2nd! 2023 2 16 0.918 2023 2 17 1.051 2023 2 18 1.202 2023 2 19 1.122 2023 2 20 0.775 2023 2 21 0.480 2023 2 22 0.330 2023 2 23 0.157 2023 2 24 0.155 2023 2 25 0.047 2023 2 26 -0.301 2023 2 27 -0.742 2023 2 28 -0.748 2023 3 1 -0.956 2023 3 2 -1.006 2023 3 3 -1.093 2023 3 4 -1.161 2023 3 5 -1.109 2023 3 6 -1.132 2023 3 7 -1.187 2023 3 8 -1.091 2023 3 9 -0.614 2023 3 10 -0.356 2023 3 11 -0.293 2023 3 12 -0.254 The next day and the following days, the GEFS started catching on and had this just 4 days later (2/20/23), which was much closer to what actually happened: this was through Mar 6th: Similar trends happened with the AO. The moral of this real-life story? Stay tuned for more potential big NAO/AO drops for mid December! Daily NAO: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii @donsutherland1

And here’s even more good trends vs yesterday for cold lovers: Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS AO through 12/10: rose to solid +AO of +1: Today’s (11/27) GEFS AO: neutral/near 0:

If the more favorable phase 8 progs today vs yesterday are not enough good news for those who prefer it cold in the E US, I’ve got more: Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS NAO through 12/10: headed to moderate +NAO Today’s (11/27) GEFS NAO through 12/11: no +NAO as it stops rising at dead neutral (0):

Yesterday’s (11/26) 2 week EPS (through 12/10): barely made it to phase 8 on Dec 5th-6th before circling back to phase 7 (extended showed it made it back to phase 8 12/13-27+): Today’s (11/27) 2 week EPS through 12/11: gets to phase 8 on 12/3 and stays through the end of the run (12/11), meaning a 9+ day long phase 8, which would be the longest Dec phase 8 at least since the 10 day long phase 8 of 1989: (tomorrow’s ext EPS will show the total length) In summary, all GEFS/EPS MJO forecasts are more favorable with regard to phase 8 vs what was available yesterday (2 week and extended). Both of today’s 2 week forecasts (GEFS and EPS) have phase 8 Dec 3-11+.

Yesterday’s (11/26) 2 week GEFS (through 12/10): didn’t make it to phase 8 (extended showed it made it but not til 12/13): Today’s (11/27) 2 week GEFS through 12/11: already makes it to phase 8 on 12/3, which is TEN days earlier than yesterday. It remains in phase 8 through the end, meaning it would be a 9+ day phase 8, the longest Dec phase 8 since 1989:

Yesterday’s (11/26) EPS 2 week MJO forecast through Dec 10th: was then curling back away from 8 after barely getting into it and we were wondering whether it would ever get back to phase 8: Yesterday’s (11/26) EPS extended, which adds 12/11-27: had a 15+ day phase 8 12/13-27, which would be the 2nd longest phase 8 on record for any month (2nd only to the 18 day long phase 8 of Dec-Jan 1975-6) and the more favorable for cold weak to moderate amp (vs strong) to boot:

Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS 2 week through 12/10: was then curling back away from 8 and we were wondering whether it would ever make phase 8: Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS extended, which adds 12/11-12/27: it turned out that it made phase 8 for an 8 day period (12/13-20), which would be longest phase 8 since Feb of 2019’s 9 day long ph 8 and the longest Dec ph 8 since Dec of 1989’s 10 day long ph 8 along with it being a more favorable for cold weak to moderate amp:

AAM has been verifying much more + than CFS ensemble forecasts have been indicating in the relative short term: if it can’t even get the relative short term right, how credible are these CFS ens. progs? Today’s (11/27) run has +0.5 to +1.0 late Nov/1st part of Dec: But look at what earlier runs had for the same period: 11/21 run: -0.25 11/19 run: -1 11/16 run: -1.5 11/11 run: -1 to -1.25

Look at how much colder H5 on the Euro Weeklies is compared to yesterday’s: that’s a big change for a 30 day period! Yesterday’s: Today’s:

Regarding today’s Euro Weeklies, it’s the most bullish (i.e., colder changes vs prior run) overall in a long time in the NE and SE. I’m not saying they’re cold in the SE, but they are colder than they were/not as mild or not mild overall. I don’t have time to post details right now, but y’all check it out! Or someone else please post the maps. Edit: Every one of the 5 weeks is colder and/or less mild in both the NE and SE US vs yesterday’s run including one dramatically colder week. That hasn’t happened in quite awhile.

Hey John, Thanks for bringing up the amp. What you said generally coincides with my thoughts. But I’d like to clarify what I’ve said just to make sure there’s not a misunderstanding. Indeed, various analyses I’ve done over the last 10-11 years or so, which all have involved calculations of actual temperatures in a place or places in the E US, have shown that the average anomalies have tended to be colder with low to moderate amp (1.7 or lower in my latest study, which was 8+ day long phase 8s) vs strong AMO of phase 8. But not “essentially every low amp pass”. It’s more like a majority of low amp have been cold vs pretty balanced for high amp.

Today’s MJO through 12/10: tune in tomorrow to see what they’ll do 12/11-27:

So, now I can give you the answer Yesterday’s 2 week GEFS (through 12/9/25) was starting to loop in 7 through the end of the 2 week run: was it going to stay in 7 or was it going to go into 8? Here’s the much anticipated answer: it ended up doing just a small, quick loop in 7 but then it went a little ways into 8 on 12/11. But that little ways was enough for the moderate amped 8 to last 8 days (12/11-18), which alone would be enough for the longest Dec phase 8 since Dec of 1989’s 10 days and longest, period, since Feb of 2019’s 9 days. However, it then looped back into 7 a little ways 12/19-26 with it stalled at the end. Now my question is whether or not it would have gone back into 8: we’ll never know that far out on this run

The above noted colder GEFS trend for early Dec continued with the 12Z run.