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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Invest 92L: 0Z UKMET: only makes it to TD status for the first time in many runs:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 40.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 24 10.6N 40.2W 1011 231200UTC 13.08.2026 36 11.4N 42.5W 1012 270000UTC 14.08.2026 48 11.5N 46.5W 1012 301200UTC 14.08.2026 60 12.5N 49.9W 1013 280000UTC 15.08.2026 72 13.6N 54.3W 1012 301200UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.2N 58.8W 1012 290000UTC 16.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
  2. GaWx
    Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located around 700 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
  3. GaWx
    Here’s the mean of the 9 Decembers preceding these very cold Nino Febs: like night and day! Look familiar?
  4. GaWx
    It is usually either a 3 month or a 1 month avg.
  5. GaWx
    Thanks, Chuck. The quite cold E US Nino Febs I’m aware of are 2015, 2010, 2003, 1980, 1978, 1958, 1914, 1912, 1905, 1889, and 1885.
  6. GaWx
    It’s very likely overdone, which is why I say it is more like a dream. But IF it were to actually have an inkling of what’s to come, we could be in store for an exciting or possibly even fab Feb. It is essentially going for another Feb of 1958, one of the greatest Febs on record in the E US and this with Feb RONI way up at +1.84! The CFS RONI prog for Feb ‘27 is for a rapid collapse down to +1.5. So, is it likely? No. But is it doable? Yes.
  7. GaWx
    Due to the extreme cold anomalies progged by the CFSv2, look how cold the progged CFSv2 March ‘27 SST anomalies are off the E coast and in the N Gulf! Some areas are -5C/-9F even vs the slightly colder 1984-2009 climo!
  8. GaWx
    These amazing maps are so much fun to look at and dream about:
  9. GaWx
    Arctic ice area continues to do relatively well!
  10. GaWx
    The further E AOI is now Invest 92L. UKMET: just S of PR as a dissipating minimal TSNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 38.1WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 36 10.5N 38.6W 1010 261200UTC 13.08.2026 48 11.4N 41.6W 1010 290000UTC 14.08.2026 60 11.8N 44.6W 1011 301200UTC 14.08.2026 72 12.8N 48.1W 1011 300000UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.0N 51.9W 1011 331200UTC 15.08.2026 96 15.3N 56.1W 1011 360000UTC 16.08.2026 108 16.2N 60.5W 1010 341200UTC 16.08.2026 120 17.0N 64.2W 1010 350000UTC 17.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING
  11. GaWx
    Week 31 of worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?time=1..52&tab=line
  12. GaWx
    The latest 10 day mean of CFSv2 op runs for JFM is even colder than what had very briefly just become the coldest ever CFSv2 10 day JFM mean that I had ever seen, which I posted last night! It has KATL at -3C/-5.4F vs the 1991-2020 mean. That’s 44F. For reference: since 1980 only one JFM has been 45F or lower: 2010’s 43F!
  13. GaWx
    This OISST relative 3.4 anomaly graph shows a rapid warming the prior 48 hours of ~0.2C.
  14. GaWx
    A thunderstorm started here a little before 5PM. Coming down hard! Edit: Total for 8/10: ~0.5”
  15. GaWx
    But this Nino at +1.8 is already stronger than 23-4 at its +1.5 peak. This is going to dwarf 23-4.
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