GaWx

For those who didn’t realize it, 1905’s very late 1st on record H was similarly powerful to Isaias with it peaking as a MH (cat 3) and that was also during El Niño. *Edited: it was not the last storm of the season at genesis but was when it degenerated below TC status at its end.

ATL’s looking worse right now at Duke/GT gametime than Tuscaloosa’s looking even during most of afternoon well before kickoff. Why with all of the warranted concern for GA/AL are the media hardly, if any, talking about any concern about Duke-Georgia Tech in ATL? Can you explain this double standard? Well, I realize way more interest and of course $ are involved with GA/AL, but that’s beside the point of concern about human beings wherever they are.

So, with all of the talk about the safety of folks in Tuscaloosa for GA/FL (which I agree is warranted), why doesn’t the media seem to care much about the safety of folks going to Bobby Dodd Sat afternoon, which will likely have worse conditions than Tuscaloosa in the mid to late afternoon (gametime in ATL) because worst conditions at Tuscaloosa should end by early afternoon. This is such a silly/stupid double standard. —————— FFC’s not playing around: .FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... —————— SATURDAY SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

Josh is in Pensacola as he chose Isaias over Simon but wishes there were two of him so they could chase both lol: https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2108365382130045125

I cannot overemphasize how important what I bolded above is. This idea is well explained at the link below, which I recently posted: Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

That’s good news if it holds for those threatened. Hopefully shear will do its thing and keep it struggling. But it looks like it will probably still be a hurricane when it comes in and thus be no picnic for them.

Do you have it for OK?

Technically according to this image, it was a H by 0Z on 10/8 in 1905 or 7PM EST on 10/7. So, that means 2026 was a little later if you go by this:

No, it’s the latest 1st H since 1851, inclusive. That’s the first year of these tracks at the NHC site.

Yeah although 1905 was about as late:

Tropical Storm watches well inland in AL/GA: This is for way up in C AL including Birmingham and Tuscaloosa: **TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA** * STORM INFORMATION: - ABOUT 710 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM AL OR ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY AL - 23.7N 90.2W - STORM INTENSITY 85 MPH - MOVEMENT EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

Plenty. You can find them here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...ISAIAS STRONGER... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 90.2W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES ———————— Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 Isaias is strengthening in an environment of moderate vertical wind shear. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure continues to fall and the maximum winds are now near 75 kt. The center of the hurricane is near the southwestern side of a Central Dense Overcast feature, and some convective banding features are evident over the eastern portion of the circulation. Additional aircraft reconnaissance missions are scheduled for today, tonight, and Friday, so we will have close monitoring of the intensity of the system up until landfall. Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isais continues on a generally east-northward track with an initial motion of about 060/9 kt. During the next 36 hours, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the northeast and north as it moves between a ridge extending from the Bahamas across the Florida Peninsula and a zonally-oriented mid-level trough near the northwestern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of the hurricane is forecast to move across the east-central to northeastern Gulf coast in 36-42 hours. Thereafter, the weakening cyclone should move over the southeastern United States bringing strong winds well inland. The track guidance has not changed much for this advisory cycle and the official forecast is similar to that of the previous advisory. The intensity forecast up to landfall is somewhat challenging. On the one hand, the hurricane should move over waters of high oceanic heat content and within a fairly moist air mass through tomorrow. On the other hand, the SHIPS model input parameters show a significant increase in vertical wind shear, particularly when Isais nears the coast. Regarding, the shorter-term intensity forecast, a recent WSFM microwave satellite image at 37 GHz frequency shows a closed ring around the eye. This is typically a harbinger of rapid intensification. The 12-hour forecast does show a relatively large increase in strength, but in view of the expected stronger shear in 24-36 hours, some decrease in intensity is indicated as Isaias approaches the coast. Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the anticipated expansion of the wind field and accelerating forward speed of the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 23.7N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.9N 89.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 27.1N 87.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 29.6N 87.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 32.3N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0000Z 34.6N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/1200Z 36.5N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

So did forky, who has special privileges and staff powers for who knows what reason, just remove the Super El Nino banter thread that I posted a link to 30 minutes earlier? Or did he just remove my ability to view it? It all of the sudden now shows this when I view the link to the Banter thread that I provided in my prior post: Sorry, we can't show this content because you do not have permission to see it.

Beautiful! Did anyone of note predict this? At a minimum, the Arctic ice news isn’t all bad right now and that’s putting it mildly: