GaWx

12Z UKMET: 1005 mb Galveston hour 33 -Has TS force winds C and W LA coast but nowhere in TX. -Rainfall for GLV-HOU only ~0.5-75”. Max is ~4” and is near Matagorda Bay. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 88.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.07.2026 0 29.8N 88.4W 1000 40 0000UTC 23.07.2026 12 29.3N 90.7W 1003 33 1200UTC 23.07.2026 24 29.0N 92.4W 1001 43 0000UTC 24.07.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

The 7/21/26 WCS PDO of -1.56 is the lowest since way back on 11/8/25:

I’m calling the formation of Bertha as another MJO phase 8 related pattern recognition win for Joe Bastardi in addition to Arthur.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 ...CENTER OF BERTHA WOBBLING SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 88.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Bertha's satellite presentation has continued to degrade this morning, with all of the associated deep convection having been pushed well to the southwest of the exposed surface center due to strong deep-layer shear. That said, dropsonde data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has changed very little from the previous advisory. The NOAA aircraft measured a peak 750-mb flight-level wind of 55 kt several hours ago, which equates to an initial intensity of 45 kt. More recent aircraft data suggest those winds may have decreased, but for now we'll continue to hold 45 kt in anticipation of additional aircraft and scatterometer data over the next few hours. Bertha's center has been deviating a bit north of the forecast track, and the current motion estimate is now 290/5 kt. Track model guidance insists that Bertha should resume a westward motion today, but wobbles and deviations like the current one are normal behavior for such a highly sheared tropical cyclone. Once a westward motion resumes, Bertha's center is likely to straddle the coast of Louisiana through Thursday and then reach the upper Texas coast by Thursday evening or night. The NHC track forecast lies along the northern edge of the guidance suite, partially to account for the recent northward jog and partially to closely follow the typically reliable HCCA and GDMI guidance. The expected weakening appears to be on the verge of starting, and the main question for the forecast is how quickly will Bertha lose intensity. Part of that equation is how much time the center will spend over land, while the system also continues to contend with strong northeasterly shear. The NHC intensity forecast maintains Bertha as a minimal tropical storm through 36 hours (around the time of a potential Texas landfall), but it's also possible that the cyclone could weaken to a depression or remnant low by that time. Like the track forecast, the intensity forecast is largely a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance. A remnant low forecast point is shown over Texas at 48 hours for continuity's sake, but Bertha could have dissipated by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 29.8N 88.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 29.6N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 29.5N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 24/0000Z 29.4N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 29.0N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

I had a very impressive ~3.75” July 12-15 at my place, which allowed me to stop irrigation for the time being. However, since then (~one week), I’ve had hardly any.

Last 90 days of MJO still is when averaged the most left-sided on diagram for this time of year, April 22nd-July 20th, for any year on record (back to 1975…I just looked at all of them) and this new record should hold through the end of July at least. Anybody know what this means?

Latest mean of CFS AAM prog: steady as she goes +1.5 to +2.0 into mid August indicative of strong El Niño (further out usually higher/too high due to + bias):

6Z UKMET: weaker than 0Z’s 999 mb with 1005 mb when near GLV (hour 39). Most of rainfall S of GLV, where <1” falls, and Houston, where <0.5” falls. Peak of ~4” Matagorda Bay.

0Z UKMET: similar to 12Z with a TS passing just S of Galveston at hour 45 heading W with a 999 mb 44 knot winds then with most of the rain in the S quadrant; the remnant inland low then moves SW TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 87.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.07.2026 0 29.2N 87.5W 999 42 1200UTC 22.07.2026 12 29.3N 88.3W 998 37 0000UTC 23.07.2026 24 28.5N 90.4W 997 40 1200UTC 23.07.2026 36 28.8N 92.7W 998 44 0000UTC 24.07.2026 48 29.0N 95.9W 1002 31 1200UTC 24.07.2026 60 27.6N 99.2W 1006 26 0000UTC 25.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

Hasn’t it been the case just about every year for a good while that there are numerous clickbait mets on YouTube calling for a snowy winter in the E US for whatever reason they come up with that year? They always seem to do this. What’s extra funny is that the bulk of them usually also have mild and limited snow in the SW US because they don’t live out there. By having mild/snowless on their maps, they probably think that makes them look objective as opposed to having cold/snowy just about everywhere lmao. The whole thing is laughable.

Arctic ice area not too bad currently with it near the 2013-24 avg as of now:

12Z UKMET is, of course, stronger due to a stronger initialization. This, like the 0Z, only skirts LA and like that one comes in just SW of Galveston hours 57-60 while highest winds are 45 knots/solid TS: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.07.2026 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 85.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.8N 85.9W 997 52 0000UTC 22.07.2026 12 29.3N 87.4W 996 43 1200UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.4N 88.3W 996 41 0000UTC 23.07.2026 36 29.2N 89.8W 995 40 1200UTC 23.07.2026 48 29.1N 92.1W 995 47 0000UTC 24.07.2026 60 29.0N 95.1W 997 45 1200UTC 24.07.2026 72 27.9N 98.2W 1003 29 0000UTC 25.07.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

Good question. I don’t know but they’re both fascinating to see. ————————— Aside: I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems?

The coldest on record DMI 80N+ temps continue! This started in late May and hasn’t stopped! I once again just checked every year back to 1958:

The OHC per this is now >+2.5 due to a rapid rise! Due to possible interpolation in the near future IF this were hitting a (temporary) max, this could be cooled on future graphs. But even if so, July has almost definitely hit a new high for the event: ***I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems? @Wow