GaWx

Week 31 of worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?time=1..52&tab=line

The latest 10 day mean of CFSv2 op runs for JFM is even colder than what had very briefly just become the coldest ever CFSv2 10 day JFM mean that I had ever seen, which I posted last night! It has KATL at -3C/-5.4F vs the 1991-2020 mean. That’s 44F. For reference: since 1980 only one JFM has been 45F or lower: 2010’s 43F!

This OISST relative 3.4 anomaly graph shows a rapid warming the prior 48 hours of ~0.2C.

A thunderstorm started here a little before 5PM. Coming down hard! Edit: Total for 8/10: ~0.5”

But this Nino at +1.8 is already stronger than 23-4 at its +1.5 peak. This is going to dwarf 23-4.

This is still another model looking great leading up to a potential Fab Feb. It’s ashamed we can’t see Feb on this run.

As expected, today is a +SOI (+2), thus ending the -SOI streak at 91 days. Thus, the 100 day streak of 1998 is safe.

12Z UKMET still has a low end TS: 12Z UKMET:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.2N 36.7WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 12.08.2026 48 10.2N 36.7W 1010 260000UTC 13.08.2026 60 10.9N 38.4W 1009 281200UTC 13.08.2026 72 11.0N 41.4W 1009 300000UTC 14.08.2026 84 11.5N 44.1W 1009 301200UTC 14.08.2026 96 12.8N 46.9W 1009 330000UTC 15.08.2026 108 14.4N 50.2W 1010 361200UTC 15.08.2026 120 15.8N 54.2W 1011 390000UTC 16.08.2026 132 17.6N 57.5W 1009 411200UTC 16.08.2026 144 18.9N 60.8W 1008 410000UTC 17.08.2026 156 20.0N 63.8W 1008 331200UTC 17.08.2026 168 21.4N 66.5W 1008 35 ————— Edit: 0Z 8/11 UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.9N 36.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.08.2026 36 10.9N 36.6W 1011 25 0000UTC 13.08.2026 48 10.6N 38.8W 1009 30 1200UTC 13.08.2026 60 11.2N 41.5W 1009 31 0000UTC 14.08.2026 72 11.9N 44.6W 1009 31 1200UTC 14.08.2026 84 13.0N 48.1W 1010 33 0000UTC 15.08.2026 96 14.2N 52.2W 1011 33 1200UTC 15.08.2026 108 15.7N 55.8W 1011 36 0000UTC 16.08.2026 120 16.9N 60.6W 1010 34 1200UTC 16.08.2026 132 17.6N 64.0W 1010 33 0000UTC 17.08.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

If so, Feb would seem to be the best opportunity per models and analogs with a mild Dec and in between Jan.

Mainly for entertainment: The image below is the TT 2m mean of the last 12 CFSv2 ops for Feb ‘27. It is extremely cold from the C Plains to the SE US with anomalies of -8 to -11 F even vs 1984-2009 climo, which is a bit colder than 1991-2020! It’s just about as cold there as the frigid Febs of 1978, 1958, and 1905 and is a bit colder than Febs of 2015, 2010, 1968, 1963, 1947, and 1902. So, it is the coldest Feb there since 1978. It isn’t quite as cold as the record coldest, 1895:

1982-3 and 2015-6 are two super strong ones with both a +QBO and descending solar fwiw. 1957-8 was a super strong with a +QBO and was barely after peak.

Yesterday’s NOAA weekly release for relative 3.4 came in at +1.8, which is the warmest early August on record back to 1982: 29JUL2026 3.2 2.1 1.5 0.2 05AUG2026 3.3 2.4 1.8 0.3 ———————— How does this compare to 1997? 06AUG1997 3.9 2.3 1.6 0.3 —————— How does this +1.8 for 3.4 compare to others for weeks centered near August 5th? 2026 +1.8 2023 +0.4 2015 +1.1 2012 +0.7 2009 +0.4 2006 +0.2 2004 +0.7 2002 +0.7 1997 +1.6 1994 +0.8 1993 +0.4 1991 +0.7 1990 +0.4 1987 +1.2 1986 +0.3 1982 +1.0 The earliest any of these reached +1.8 is August 20, 1997.

0Z UKMETNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.6N 37.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 72 10.1N 38.8W 1011 251200UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.6N 41.9W 1011 270000UTC 14.08.2026 96 11.4N 44.8W 1011 291200UTC 14.08.2026 108 12.5N 48.2W 1011 290000UTC 15.08.2026 120 13.8N 51.7W 1012 321200UTC 15.08.2026 132 15.9N 56.4W 1011 380000UTC 16.08.2026 144 16.8N 60.2W 1011 401200UTC 16.08.2026 156 18.9N 63.7W 1009 510000UTC 17.08.2026 168 20.5N 65.9W 1008 35

The image below is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks! ——————— Looking at Feb, alone, the progged coldest month: Mainly for entertainment: The image below is the TT 2m mean of the last 12 CFSv2 for Feb ‘27. It is extremely cold from the C Plains to the SE US with anomalies of -8 to -11 F even vs 1984-2009 climo, which is a bit colder than 1991-2020! It’s just about as cold there as the frigid Febs of 1978, 1958, and 1905 and is a bit colder than Febs of 2015, 2010, 1968, 1963, 1947, and 1902. So, it’s the coldest Feb there since 1978. It isn’t quite as cold as the record coldest, 1895:

This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!