GaWx

My water bills are looking to be outrageously high, but I have no choice if I want to keep the grass healthy.

UKMET has been one of the better models in recent years. It’s going ~+2.05 for Sep ONI and would likely rise a few more tenths from there. Then take off ~0.5 to convert to RONI. So, ~+1.5-1.6 C RONI in Sept and rising per UKMET. Euro ONI is just over +2.2 in Sept and rising, but it has tended to verify too warm although not as much warm bias verified on average in actual El Niños. This all suggests to me a mid to high grade strong RONI peak as of now. I’ll continue to update.

That’s the coldest March for Canada, overall, since 2002, which is below:

I’ve been sprinkling the yards recently. The drought in this area and especially to the SW is about the most severe in the entire SE with widespread D3 (extreme) here to D4 (exceptional) in SC GA to NC FL. See map below. Although it’s unpredictable, the good news is that a strong El Niño appears to be on the way. If that verifies, much of the SE should see wet relief by November based on history and long range models:

Yeah, that’s what I have. I find it amazing that there were none for the 68 winters between 1888-9 and 1957-8. I wonder whether or not this is random, especially considering there were 7 over the subsequent 68 winters 1957-8 through 2024-5!

Add to those using a peak of 2+ RONI for 1950+: 1888-9, 1957-8, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1991-2

Nov: NMME is warmer than its prior run and much more E based than Cansips Modoki: Nov SSTa NMME latest run: Nov SSTa NMME prior run: Nov SSTa Cansips

The 4/23 ONI fcasts: BoM much too warm and Euro/CFS/UK somewhat too warm. Actual JAS +1.37 1. BoM: +2.17 for JAS or 0.80 too warm 2. Euro: +1.57 for JAS or 0.20 too warm 3. CFSv2: +1.56 for JAS or 0.19 too warm 4. UKMET: +1.58 for JAS or 0.21 too warm OTOH, the avg of all 17 dynamicals was +1.33, which was almost perfect. ONI history: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt 4/23 ONI forecasts: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

This tweet is deceptive. I’m surprised the smart pro met. Ethan said this. Of course the SSTs are significantly warmer than 29 years ago due to GW. But you know that the measure of Nino strength isn’t SST but rather SSTa. Relative SSTa: 02APR1997 1.1 -0.3 0.1 1.1 01APR2026 0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 So, per relative anomalies, not only is 2026 not warmer than 1997, it is 0.5 cooler in 1+2, 0.3 cooler in 3.4, and 0.8 cooler in 4! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt @mitchnick

Also, there was 2/9-10/1973 and 3/24/1983 in large parts of the SE. Regardless of snow or not, the relatively predictable thing about strong El Niños is their tendency to be wet Nov-Mar in most of the SE.

Webb exhibits at times a tone that borders on being over the top to get attention. “Hilariously strong”?

I fully get that 1877-8 is as strong as any El Niño on record based on Nino 3.4 as Eric Webb’s and other tables show. But it’s the H5 maps that were shocking to see since I had never seen any H5 maps before the late 1940s. Now after reading what you posted above, I realize this 1877-8 H5 is no more than the equivalent of a wild educated guess as all it is based on is surface data as that’s all the only data they have.

Being that the current OISST dailies suggest that RONI is likely ~-0.3 to -0.4, it is a very tall order to get the full April averaged RONI to rise all of the way to +0.6, which is what this BoM run has. We’ll see what the very strong WWB/TC triplets are able to do. The rate of April warming would probably have to be well beyond record highs to get April RONI up to +0.6. The daily RONIs may have to approach +1.5 by April 30th!! I don’t see that being realistic at all.

Makes perfect sense to me.From JB:April 5, 2026The forecast numbers have been taken way down.The Canadian model has been thrown out.The European indicates a powerful El Niño and a negative AMO "look".The closest analog is 2015.The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.Early season Gulf or SE system a concernThe Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possibleThe forecast numbers for the 2026 seasonTotal storms: 9-13Hurricanes: 3-5Major Hurricanes: 1-2Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3ACE Index: 85-105The closest analog is 2015

In 2023, the same BoM model also had it getting to +2.4 at the same time (Sept) as per snowman’s post at the bottom of this post. Here was that 4/8/23 run: But “it” back then was ONI, which like now was then ~0.5 higher than RONI. So, it implicitly was predicting RONI only at +1.9. Thus, the current BoM prog on an apples to apples basis is progging 0.5 warmer than what it had 3 years ago. But also keep in mind that the ‘23 BoM turned out to be significantly too warm for the ONI. In Sept, ONI verified to be only +1.64 meaning a large bust of +0.76! RONI was only +1.15. If this BoM run were to bust as badly to the top warm side, the Sept RONI would be at +1.64.