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GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
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    SAV, GA
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    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Today’s 10 day averaged CFS RONI run for Nov has dropped a little to between +2.75 and +2.70. It also suggests that near future 10 day means for Nov will probably drop a little lower since all 8 of the blue lines, the most recent runs, are lower than today’s mean of the 40 lines whereas the red lines are more balanced. It also suggests a similar small drop for Nino 4 and Nino 3 for the same reason. However, unlike the other 3 regions, Nino 1+2’s blue lines are balanced suggesting little near future change upcoming for its Nov forecast mean thus implying probably a slightly even more E based Nino:
  2. GaWx
    This is just like the strongly E based 1997 was in the first half of Nov, but is unlike the 9 other strong+ Ninos since 1959, which had either neutral or -PNA then.
  3. GaWx
    Looking at only Ninos of +1.4+ (per RONI), there have been 10 others since 1950 but only one (1997) had a +PNA dominant first half of Nov like GEFS says 2026 is going to have. GEFS is suggesting ~+1.0 (after adjusting downward for bias) for 11/1-15/2026. How does this compare to the other 10 actual 11/1-15? 2023: -0.1 2015: -0.2 2009: -0.3 1997: +1.2 1991: +0.1 1986: -0.9 1982: -0.3 1972: +0.1 1965: -0.5 1957: 0.0 I wonder if this strong early Nov +PNA in 2026 is largely due to how E based it is being that 1997 was so E based early. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii
  4. GaWx
    Whereas the GEFS -AO looks significantly less impressive than yesterday, the +PNA still looks very impressive for at least the 3rd day in a row: 10/27 run: 10/28 run: 10/29 run: even a bit more impressive Granted, the GEFS has had a +PNA bias averaged out the last 3 months, but the bias has had only ~half the magnitude of its -AO bias, and it has been mainly after day 7. So, perhaps it’s a bit too +PNA late in the run but otherwise likely has the right idea. I’ll for now assume it has the right idea for the first half of Nov with a PNA of near or above +1 most of the days. What other Nino first half of Nov had a mainly +PNA that was pretty high? 2014, 2002, 1997, 1987, 1976, 1968, and 1953 with only 1997 being strong+.
  5. GaWx
    Thanks, Adam. Point taken, which @Typhoon Tipand many of us agree with. In case you missed it yesterday, Eric also suspects the occurrence of this very early SSW is connected in some way to the very strong and E based Nino: I have a sneaking suspicion that the extreme eastward shift (& intensity) of this year's El Niño potentially has something to do w/ the unusually early stratospheric warming event that's being forecast.
  6. GaWx
    The comparison of the following GEFS AO progs fits in well with its strong -AO bias the last couple of months: 10/28/26 GEFS run: look at all of the members plunging to sub -1 and even sub -2 during Nov 2-4 with the mean plunging to -1.5 on Nov 3rd: 10/29/26 GEFS run: what happened to the Nov 2-4 members going below -1? There’s only one left and the mean dips down only to -0.6 instead of -1.5 on Nov 3rd. Also, the medium range mean isn’t as -AO as yesterday: @Typhoon Tip
  7. GaWx
    Even if this SSW ends up not propagating downward to a significant degree and thus doesn’t lead to strong -AO/-NAO in Dec, just the fact that this very early SSW is occurring may have implications as to the chance of a subsequent major SSW (i.e., a canary in the coal mine) that actually does downwell significantly and thus leads to a strong -AO/-NAO after that as I think @40/70 Benchmarkhas talked about.
  8. GaWx
    John, As long as the 10 hPa/60N mean zonal winds reverse (go to <0) in Nov or winter, that event is defined as a major SSW regardless of the degree of actual strat. warming and degree of propagation down into the troposphere, if at all. If it doesn’t drop to <0, the strat warming event is called a minor SSW. Despite the reversal or at least near reversal being progged on models, the degree of actual warming at 10 hPa being progged has been tame compared to many other SSWs. So, that could very well be a factor to consider as regards its potential to later significantly disrupt well down into the troposphere. I wonder if that reduces that potential. Opinions? Check out this GFS prog, for example. The change in the strat. wind pattern at 60N looks quite impressive, but the degree of strat. warming up there doesn’t as there usually are widespread red colors, including dark red, that abruptly move into the area located within 60-90N but in this case the darker reds largely remain in and near Siberia:
  9. GaWx
    The Arctic N of 80N 2m anomalies have been back to their typical autumn warmer than 1958-2002 averages after a short dip to just BN at the end of Sept:
  10. GaWx
    Thank you. I stand corrected and that’s good to know. I knew that the CFS was doing that mainly in Feb with its massive W based -NAO/E Canada block, but didn’t realize that the models overall were doing much blocking earlier in the winter. That’s why I said “lack of seasonal model support”. This winter is about the most anticipated I can recall. We’re currently on page 266 ITT! Last year’s ENSO thread didn’t reach p. 266 til Dec 9th and it was only on p. 159 on Oct 28th! The ENSO thread from 2 years ago had only 260 pages in the entire thread! It was on only p. 147 on Oct 28th! Remember the last El Niño thread of 23-4 that we got all excited about? It had only 269 pages in total. “2021-2022 ENSO” had only 38 pages in its entirety and after page 27 it had already gone beyond that! “Winter of 20-21 Discussion” had only 9 pages.
  11. GaWx
    Why is Mark saying surface impacts are expected to start in mid-Nov? @Stormchaserchuck1said it takes 30-45 days, which wouldn’t be til Dec. Does he need clicks and likes that badly?
  12. GaWx
    Check this colder change from the EWs for week 2 (Nov 9-15): 1. H5 2 runs ago: Yesterday’s: Today’s: nice E US trough 2m from 2 days ago: Yesterday: cooler Today’s: even cooler Rainfall: 2 days ago: slightly wet SE Yesterday’s: a little drier Today’s: even drier with the colder air
  13. GaWx
    It’s not +3. It’s ~+2.6 per NOAA. Record for any week is +2.9: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt Meanwhile there’s this to look at that shows strong +AAM still S of 30N: @40/70 Benchmark
  14. GaWx
    More from Webb about the SSW: The wave pattern that forces stratospheric warming events varies from case to case. Displacement events (wave 1) require an Aleutian low and a Scandinavian-Kara Sea block, but splits of the polar vortex (wave 2) do not necessarily. This particular stratospheric warming event actually starts out as a split type (wave 2), and then morphs into a wave 1/displacement type event as the Aleutian low becomes established later. The tropospheric trigger for this event is clearly traceable to the Eastern Pacific w/ divergent wind anomalies from active convection propagating poleward into N America and then eastward into the North Atlantic jet stream, eventually forcing the Kara Sea/Scandinavian block that sets this entire stratospheric warming event into motion. Also, note that early in the model forecasts, wave 2 amplitude dominates the -NAM/AO changes, wave 1 comes later and is largely confined to the mid-upper stratosphere initially at least.
  15. GaWx
    -1952-3 only barely missed a 2nd one in Jan with it getting down to +1 fwiw. -I had thought a +QBO reduced the chance for a mid to late winter major SSW during +1.3+ El Niño. However, upon further review, that may not be true: Here are the +1.3+ peaking El Niño events with a +QBO and whether or not they had a Jan 15th+ major SSW: 1957-8: yes 1982-3: no 1987-8: yes 1994-5: yes 2015-6: yes So, that’s 4 of 5 (80%) +QBO +1.3+ Nino with a Jan 15th+ SSW ———————— What about -QBO Nino winters? 1965-6: yes 1986-7: yes 1991-2: no 2009-10: yes 2023-4: yes So, that’s 4 of 5 (80%) -QBO +1.3+ Nino with a Jan 15th+ SSW. So, it’s a statistical tie for Jan 15th+ SSWs chances during +1.3+ El Niño.
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