Jump to content

GaWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    18,834

  • Joined

About GaWx

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

Recent Profile Visitors

46,323 profile views
  1. GaWx
    Thanks, Ray. Based on model consensus and even after reducing the avg prog as a BC being that June model run avg has tended to verify too warm, especially Euro, I’m thinking RONI/ONI peaks will likely be at the higher end of your range or warmer. Models are leaning toward an OND peak.
  2. GaWx
    I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there.
  3. GaWx
    I had ~0.05” yesterday evening, which brought me up to ~4.4” MTD.
  4. GaWx
    I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report.
  5. GaWx
    Euro progging peak of impressive +1.4 Oct, which would beat 11/1997 record of +1.3! However, avg IOD has been rising with CC and thus in theory would need to be adjusted down to be comparable and would be < the +1.3 of ‘97. Otherwise, even the adjusted IOD prog could very well be 2nd strongest on record! IOD data back to 1870, which shows the ‘97 record and longterm rise: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data
  6. GaWx
    Further to my post above, the 0Z 5/25 fcast had a mean +3+ for now vs actual <+0.5! These like to overshoot severely:
  7. GaWx
    Keep in mind that these tend to run too high when forecasting extremes out several weeks: Note it’s now <0.5. Compare that to this 6/3 forecast, which had it at +2 for today!
  8. GaWx
    From several showers and a severe warned thunderstorm, I received ~1.75” yesterday. That put me then at ~3.80” MTD. I received more rain overnight of varying intensities and it’s still falling very lightly with constant rain since late last night. I’ll post the total for this later. It will be >0.5”. No more watering for at least awhile! Edit: Thu night into early Fri PM I ended up with ~0.55”, which then put me at ~4.35” MTD.
  9. GaWx
    2026 warmed to +1.2 relative OISST on June 17th, which is 0.1 warmer than the warmest week on record (back to 1982) centered nearest to June 17th, 1997’s +1.1: 2026: +1.2 1997: +1.1 1987: +1.0 2015: +0.9 1982: +0.8 1994: +0.7 1991: +0.6 2002: +0.5 2009: +0.4 2023: +0.4 Data source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  10. GaWx
    For obvious reasons, I’m taking this with a humongous grain and thus assume this won’t verify closely:
  11. GaWx
    I got a 2nd thunderstorm within the last hour. I’ll have a grand total later.
  12. GaWx
    I had received ~0.65” of rain since my last report. In addition, today I’ve been getting a strong thunderstorm that has had a warning since ~4PM. I got 1”+ very quickly. Some CTG lightning nearby. Rain now letting up.
  13. GaWx
    SOI daily: Prediction from 6/13………actual 6/14: -15 to -20…….-25 6/15: -6 to -13…….-13 6/16: +5 to -6………..-3 6/17: +8 to -5……….-1 6/18: +16 to +1……….+4 6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)………? 6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2………..?
  14. GaWx
    The sub -5 SOI streak ended at 36 days. The only longer ones back to 1991 are the 51 and 42 day streaks of 1997-8.
  15. GaWx
    In the Midwest it was, indeed, quite mild. But in the NE, it averaged only moderately AN with Dec AN but Jan-Feb pretty close to normal. Jan actually was slightly BN in some cases like at NYC. In the SE, only Dec was a mild month. Jan was slightly to moderately BN and Feb was not too far from normal. Thus DJF averaged only slightly AN to NN in the SE. SE example for DJF Asheville: 43.6, 35.2, 39.8 Jan was 35.2/BN with 8.5” of SN (double the normal) from two ~4” snowstorms. The coldest was 7F. Knoxville was similar. Savannah also had a BN Jan.
×
×
  • Create New...