GaWx

Folks, I just saw 86.5 on my thermometer at 12:07PM EDT!! It has since fallen back to a cold 86.1 lol.

Today’s MJO forecasts: GEFS EPS

A high of 90 is forecast for this area aided by a steady SW wind pinning the seabreeze and highs have been overperforming a couple of degrees, possibly related to the drought. So, the record high of 87 has a great chance to be broken. Meanwhile, lows in the 30s a couple of days next week will be possible along with highs only in the 50s, which is colder than recent 60s lows! That will make for quite a chilly St. Patrick’s Day parade. Looking forward to that and also a low 40s low well before that on Friday.

Thanks. Based on my calling a -0.25 to +0.25 DJF averaged NAO “neutral”, I actually have 25-26 as neutral due to a -0.11 average. It was easily headed to sub -0.25 with a -0.4 winter to date avg. as of Feb 12th, but the strong +NAO of Feb 13-28 brought the avg. up to -0.11. Nevertheless, the -0.11 is the lowest NAO of a 35+ sunspot winter since 1997-8, quite a notable achievement with sunspots at 105. winter. One has to go all the way back to 1978-9 to find the last true -NAO DJF during an active sunspot winter.

Hey Ray, Good job overall! How impactful would you say was the late Nov SSWE?

KSAV had a torchy 89 high today, which missed the 1974 record by only 2. What happened to spring?

Snow chances this far south have, of course, been done. We got the 3/4” on 1/31, which is quite snowy for way down here and was very enjoyable! I’m just looking forward to the clean chilly Canadian air, which is always welcomed. Will we get any more freezes or frosts though? Not from the first real short chill as that will get us to ~45. The second, however, should get us a couple of 30s.

I’m most looking forward to 3/13 and especially 3/16-20, the colder of the two periods. Yes, it’s pretty short but I’ll take whatever I can get before summer resumes.

Thanks, Chuck. That appeared to be a good call to me, too. But so far, crude is staying down with it ~$84. Are you surprised? Of course, it can turn on a dime at just about any point. Regardless, anyone who had the courage to short it near its Sun evening 119 high is up a huge amount if they’re still short!

Now you see it: Now you almost don’t (to nobody’s surprise of course):

Indeed. I count only ~6 days of cold in the bulk of the E US: 3/13 and 3/16-20. But the 2nd one is quite intense for mid-March and I’ll thoroughly enjoy it as this short period of false winter gives us down here relief from the false summer! A -PNA, +AO, and +EPO are aiding the warmth along with MJO phases 5 and 6 through yesterday. Those two have averaged the warmest phases during March following a Niña winter. The main opponent is and will continue to be the -WPO, which in combo with MJO phase 8 (2nd coldest March Niña phase) is likely what’s going to allow the brief two cold periods.

The +1.85 NAO of March of 1989 is in danger of being exceeded for a new record strong March +NAO: Remember to double these to very roughly estimate the tabular values, which means that today’s GEFS mean is progging a March 1-24 NAO way up at ~~+2.3 to +2.75!

Thanks for your explanation. I see that the surface temp is safely above 32. Here’s the surface pressures of the relevant 6Z GEFS members as of the end of the snow period for portions of NC: what do they (2, 4, 7, and 14) have in common? lowest SLP both stronger and centered ~150-200 miles off SE coast: And here’s the 6 hour qpf: check out member 14 with its 1.25” swath:

The 6Z GFS suite is looking really stupid in being on its own including all of the main short term models in showing a snow threat in portions of C and E NC on Thu (3/12). Why is the GFS showing this?? GFS (Kuchera): GEFS mean (10:1): GEFS mean is almost all from the clueless members 4 and 14 with a small assist by 2 and 7 while the other 26 members essentially have nothing outside of the mtns:

It’s already been like summer for many in the SE on many days this month. Many are headed for one of the warmest Marches on record. I have enough summer as it is. I’d prefer March be more like a spring month. Thus, I’m looking forward to the cooldown and am hoping April overall comes in less warm than March. This has zero to do with snow.