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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly : I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.
  2. GaWx
    Recent 10 day mean CFS runs have warmed for Feb: 10 days ago: Today:
  3. GaWx
    ^The 12Z UKMET has no TC or even any surface low in this area.
  4. GaWx
    I understand that. But why did Paul Roundy, whom many of us including myself greatly respect, today post that the 70 hPa signal is still E when it already switched to W (~+3) in Sept per the first source below? Does he use a source that has different values from these two? https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat The above link had it already at ~+3 in Sept. at 70 hPa and then this has it ~+8 at 70 hPa as of 10/28/26: —————————— Paul Roundy @PaulRoundy1 Message Present 70 hPa QBO signal is still easterly. It will likely be changing over the next few months.
  5. GaWx
    It changed in Sept from E (white) to W (gray) at 70 hPa and should by now already be well within the gray (say likely +5+) per this (I’m hoping this updates soon to confirm this): Edit: confirmed as it went from -10 in Aug to +3 in Sept. at 70 hPa: https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat Oct should be out in early Nov and will likely be higher than +3.
  6. GaWx
    Cosgrove for NE US: after a mild DJ is going for frigid Feb and cold Mar.
  7. GaWx
    Thank goodness the models will be coming out an hour earlier starting next week!
  8. GaWx
    Based on your graph, the 0Z 10/30 Euro is calling for the avg of Nov 1-15 to be ~-1 m/s. That’s ~16 lower than the next lowest for any Nino since 1950 (2009), which was near +15, and ~26 lower than the avg for El Niño since 1950: 26: projected -1 per 0Z 10/30 Euro op 09: +15 04: +16 58: +17 06: +18 Avg Nino +25 *Edit: 0Z 10/30 Euro ens mean ~0
  9. GaWx
    Well, well, well, the 0Z UKMET at hour 96 suddenly has a (TS or STS) form off the FL E coast as it does have somewhat of a warm core per 850/700/500 mb temps being warmer near the center than surrounding areas and it has mid-70s dewpoints surrounding the center. It forms just off of SC portion of the FL E coast and then moves mainly NNE to Wilmington, NC: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.0N 79.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.11.2026 96 28.0N 79.6W 1007 44 1200UTC 03.11.2026 108 28.3N 78.9W 1004 43 0000UTC 04.11.2026 120 29.0N 78.3W 1003 36 1200UTC 04.11.2026 132 30.7N 79.2W 1001 33 0000UTC 05.11.2026 144 32.1N 78.9W 1001 31 1200UTC 05.11.2026 156 35.1N 77.8W 1001 35 0000UTC 06.11.2026 168 39.5N 76.3W 1000 32
  10. GaWx
    Today’s 10 day averaged CFS RONI run for Nov has dropped a little to between +2.75 and +2.70. It also suggests that near future 10 day means for Nov will probably drop a little lower since all 8 of the blue lines, the most recent runs, are lower than today’s mean of the 40 lines whereas the red lines are more balanced. It also suggests a similar small drop for Nino 4 and Nino 3 for the same reason. However, unlike the other 3 regions, Nino 1+2’s blue lines are balanced suggesting little near future change upcoming for its Nov forecast mean thus implying probably a slightly even more E based Nino:
  11. GaWx
    This is just like the strongly E based 1997 was in the first half of Nov, but is unlike the 9 other strong+ Ninos since 1959, which had either neutral or -PNA then.
  12. GaWx
    Looking at only Ninos of +1.4+ (per RONI), there have been 10 others since 1950 but only one (1997) had a +PNA dominant first half of Nov like GEFS says 2026 is going to have. GEFS is suggesting ~+1.0 (after adjusting downward for bias) for 11/1-15/2026. How does this compare to the other 10 actual 11/1-15? 2023: -0.1 2015: -0.2 2009: -0.3 1997: +1.2 1991: +0.1 1986: -0.9 1982: -0.3 1972: +0.1 1965: -0.5 1957: 0.0 I wonder if this strong early Nov +PNA in 2026 is largely due to how E based it is being that 1997 was so E based early. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii
  13. GaWx
    Whereas the GEFS -AO looks significantly less impressive than yesterday, the +PNA still looks very impressive for at least the 3rd day in a row: 10/27 run: 10/28 run: 10/29 run: even a bit more impressive Granted, the GEFS has had a +PNA bias averaged out the last 3 months, but the bias has had only ~half the magnitude of its -AO bias, and it has been mainly after day 7. So, perhaps it’s a bit too +PNA late in the run but otherwise likely has the right idea. I’ll for now assume it has the right idea for the first half of Nov with a PNA of near or above +1 most of the days. What other Nino first half of Nov had a mainly +PNA that was pretty high? 2014, 2002, 1997, 1987, 1976, 1968, and 1953 with only 1997 being strong+.
  14. GaWx
    Thanks, Adam. Point taken, which @Typhoon Tipand many of us agree with. In case you missed it yesterday, Eric also suspects the occurrence of this very early SSW is connected in some way to the very strong and E based Nino: I have a sneaking suspicion that the extreme eastward shift (& intensity) of this year's El Niño potentially has something to do w/ the unusually early stratospheric warming event that's being forecast.
  15. GaWx
    The comparison of the following GEFS AO progs fits in well with its strong -AO bias the last couple of months: 10/28/26 GEFS run: look at all of the members plunging to sub -1 and even sub -2 during Nov 2-4 with the mean plunging to -1.5 on Nov 3rd: 10/29/26 GEFS run: what happened to the Nov 2-4 members going below -1? There’s only one left and the mean dips down only to -0.6 instead of -1.5 on Nov 3rd. Also, the medium range mean isn’t as -AO as yesterday: @Typhoon Tip
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