GaWx

12z Euro: looks like a TD that comes ashore near LA/TX border midday Tue.

I’m talking about models that had avg for Aug minus avg for July ~1C. It’s looking more like just 0.5C.

12Z UKMET for 2nd full run in a row has a TC originating in the W MDR well out in the run. 0Z had a TD but 12Z has a strengthening mid-grade TS as it recurves well away from any landmass due to a notable upper trough per H5 maps: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 52.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 15.8N 52.0W 1011 25 0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 16.9N 55.0W 1010 30 1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 17.8N 57.6W 1008 35 0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 19.3N 59.2W 1006 41 1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 20.8N 59.6W 1002 48

12Z UKMET doesn’t quite designate this as a TD but it does have 25 knot winds just offshore LA Mon night and landfall Tue AM near TX/LA border. Lowest SLP only gets down to 1011 mb fwiw.

12 UKMET: ex-Dolly becomes a TD right before it moves NW into FL NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 26.5N 78.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.09.2026 108 27.5N 79.5W 1008 29 1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 29.2N 81.3W 1008 31 0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 30.8N 83.2W 1008 24 1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 32.0N 85.4W 1009 19 0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 32.8N 87.3W 1008 18 1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 33.1N 87.9W 1008 20

August overall was a notable bust for Nino 3.4 as several models had had a steep anomaly warming of a record breaking ~1C from July to Aug whereas the last 4 weeks have overall been net ~flat meaning a warming from July to August of only ~0.5C. Thus, the progged Nov peaks have recently been dropping on the CFS:

0Z UKMET: H at 168 strengthening on a slow WNW move in Gulf NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 24.6N 78.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.09.2026 108 24.9N 79.9W 1008 30 0000UTC 04.09.2026 120 25.9N 82.1W 1005 33 1200UTC 04.09.2026 132 27.3N 84.2W 1001 38 0000UTC 05.09.2026 144 28.0N 86.2W 996 43 1200UTC 05.09.2026 156 28.4N 87.8W 989 61 0000UTC 06.09.2026 168 28.7N 88.9W 977 68

Chris, posted this last night: I suspect based on his post 2 nights earlier and the tone of this one that I largely won’t agree with the upcoming video, but let’s see what he says.

1. Based on Corcorahs and radar yesterday, I roughly estimate 0.1” fell at my home yesterday (8/27) thus bringing my location at 7.35” mtd through 8/27. 2. More rain has fallen and is still falling there today. I’ll have to roughly estimate later how much for 8/28. As of now the total for today I’m guessing 0.5” at the very least. Edit: my rough estimate for 8/28 at my home is 0.5” based largely on local TV radar estimates. That puts me at ~7.85” MTD.

I can’t post the maps because they’re too large for the space allowed here, but comparing today’s 12Z UKMET 120 hour map with the 168 hour map of the 12Z UK of 48 hours ago using Pivotal shows they’re very similar with regard to both with a somewhat healthy Dolly (1007 mb/well organized vs 999 mb on the run from 48 hours ago) recurving and the preliminary low back to being just a weak (1012ish) low that’s not designated a TC and headed toward NE FL.

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane. Thanks for posting this. After a careful look at the 6Z GFS, including the progged vorticity for various levels of the atmosphere, it appears to me like this may be a combo of Dolly’s remnants and additional vorticity similar to the vorticity that the last 4 full UKMET runs have shown off the SE coast developing into a sfc low (TC on last 3 runs).

According to the following link, NOAA has switched to RONI as its official way of reporting ENSO effective 2/1/2026 and not just for weak ENSO despite them still maintaining the ONI dataset: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Chris, are you disputing NOAA? NOAA is saying as I think you must realize that measuring against average overall worldwide tropical ocean warming is a more realistic gauge of the strength of ENSO events. Why else did they convert to relative measures for official measurements? Also, BoM has switched among other organizations.

I like to remind folks when I read x-posts like this this from Brody Cowing that ignore using RONI types of measures that some of this intensity of warming in the Nino regions is due to GW and not purely due to the strength of the Nino, itself. When using relative/RONI records put out by NOAA, it’s clear that Nino 1+2 isn’t currently at record highs: 20AUG1997 3.8 2.6 1.8 0.4 19AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Chris Martz posted this on the day of the Nepal flooding disaster. I’m not posting this because of agreement with him since I vehemently disagree. The one thing I’ve been most concerned about regarding CC/GW is what to me has to be an obvious direct result from it, melting of ice and the resultant negative consequences. How can GW not be a cause or contribution to melting ice? I feel I’m open minded about what CC/GW clearly does or doesn’t cause (an example being global wildfire acreage burnt that I’ve recently been posting about) as well as the idea that there are some significant positive results from it (like fewer hunger related deaths resulting from increased world food supply as well as fewer deaths related to GW since cold has killed many more than heat). Some of my posts do address things like that. Also, I’ve recently even posted about the coldest 80N+ late May through most of the summer since at least 1958 per DMS stats possibly contributing to less melting of Arctic ice area this summer vs recent years. But in the case of melted ice in general, I don’t get the doubt about CC causing it like Chris Martz implies: @donsutherland1@chubbsand others, any comments?