GaWx

Do you or does anyone else know how much these 4 GA locations warmed? I’d really like to know due to their supposed lack of UHI effect. @TheClimateChanger @donsutherland1 @chubbs

1) Cumberland is certainly rural: https://www.nps.gov/cuis/planyourvisit/staffordbeach.htm 2)-3) Ichauway appears quite rural, too: https://www.jonesctr.org/about-us/ 4) Colham Ferry appears to be a burb of Watkinsville, a town with only ~3K: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watkinsville,_Georgia#:~:text=Watkinsville is the largest city,County%2C Georgia Metropolitan Statistical Area. ———— What do you think of these 4 as far as not having UHI to worry about?

~4 BN with normal based on 2006-25. Nothing drastic but the change from runs of just a few days back is what’s most notable. Also, will this getting colder trend continue?

Blairsville, GA

More on how much colder Mar 16-22 has gotten in just a few runs with a look at massive H5 change: Just 5 days ago (2/27 run) for Mar 16-22: Today’s for Mar 16-22: beware Ides of Mar!

By golly, @MJO812may end up right for midmonth as the EW for Mar 16-22 has turned much colder (per my post 2 above this) than what it had on the day of this reply to him, Feb 26th (see quoted 2nd image)!

E. Wkls even colder for 3/16-22 (beware Ides of Mar) Yesterday’s: Today’s: Just 3 runs ago 3/16-22 was mild:

Reminder: phase 7 has averaged even colder than 8 in March following Niña winters as phase 8 has averaged 2nd coldest. Another reminder: as always these are merely averages of a wide array of actuals for each phase. (I use Baltimore as a rep. city to calculate these since it’s in the middle of the E coastal U.S.) March Niña by phase (whether inside or outside COD): 1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo) 2: -0.1 3: +1.8 4: +0.3 5: +2.1 (2nd warmest) 6: +2.6 (warmest) 7: -1.7 (coldest) 8: -0.7 (2nd coldest) AVG: +0.7

1. I agree that neither Eric nor anyone can possibly know at this very early stage how strong El Niño will be. It’s not that predictable and some models like the Euro have had a warm bias even all the way through summer progs. It could very well end up strong or even super-strong, but it could also end up weaker just because we and models don’t know.2. I feel like RONI would be a more telling index to predict than ONI. RONI has recently been ~0.4C cooler. Eric may not be explicitly taking that into account. When all is said and done, there’s <100% chance (although not a whole bunch less as of now) we’ll actually have El Niño per RONI. It would be hilarious if we don’t considering this thread’s name has El Niño in it. 3. There have been some strong to super ones that were cool to cold in most of the E US lower Mid-Atlantic southward: 2009-10, 1965-6, and 1957-8. And 1911-2 was cold everywhere despite peaking at +1.4. So, even if it’s strong, don’t expect a mild winter like 2015-6 in the SE and possibly not mild also in the Mid-Atlantic. And then consider that even up at Boston that although they’ve yet on record to have a cold strong+ Nino, it could end up NN as per 1896-7, 1902-3, 1925-6, 1930-1, 1940-1, 1957-8, 1965-6, and 2009-10. That’s almost half of the 18 strong+ Ninos back to 1877-8. And 1972-3 and 1991-2 were only slightly AN vs their respective climo in Boston. A torch covering the entire E US has occurred only once, 2015-6, as 2023-4 was NN in much of the SE.

I’ll go only B+ because of the two long torches, the weeklong holiday centered one and the late Feb one that included ridiculously warm highs of 85 and 86. Otherwise, the consistently cold period of Jan 12th-Feb 9th was one of the most pleasurable winter periods ever experienced as a wx hobbyist. Not only was it cold, but there were also 3 weekends in a row of fascinating and unique SE winter storms to generate very enjoyable forecast discussions for full week periods in advance of each. These discussions are always made more interesting when FL is threatened like they were twice. As a big bonus, my area got 3/4” of snow. That’s 4 times the average snowfall in this area and at the 90th percentile of the area’s winter snowfall. Also, that makes two straight winters with measurable snow for the first time since 1988-9 and 1989-90. And as an additional bonus, KSAV tied for its coldest since 2012 with 19 on Feb 1.

Today’s EW have a notably colder signal weeks 3-4 in E US vs yesterday and other recent runs. Maybe these are related to the March 4 SSWE? EW: wk 3 (3/16-22) run 3 days ago: Today’s wk 3: colder E US Yesterday’s week 4 (3/23-29): Today’s week 4: colder E US

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event. Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. https://x.com/webberweather/status/2028468392550924638?

The winter of 2025-6 had only 18 of its 90 days with a WPO >0. That’s the lowest # of days since the very cold winter of 1962-3, which had only 11 (lowest number of any since 1948-9). 1956-7 had only 16. So, 2025-6 had the 3rd lowest. I think 1967-8 is in 4th with 21 of its 91 days >0: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Thanks, Charlie. Don’t forget to consider a “relative” RONIlike adjustment downward. That could be ~-0.3C.

Hey Mitch, thanks for doing that. You could go ahead and delete this post if you’d like.