GaWx

Hey DB, To be efficient, I’ll look at one city, Tulsa, as a good rep of the S Plains. They actually had a NN precip fall. But winter has been dry with only 1.62” vs 5.65” 30 year normal. This was the driest winter there since 2005-6’s 1.59” and second driest on record! 1931-2 winter there was wet with 7.7”. Also, Nov of 1931 is the 2nd wettest Nov on record. So, winter of 31-2 didn’t at all foretell the upcoming dust bowl. Then again, 1932 overall ended up rather dry with a very dry Feb-May and Aug-Sep. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tsa

The E coast is due for a cold April as the last 3 have actually been mild.

The current drought throughout the SE US is serious business! In my area, for example, the last 6 months’ 9.38” were in the aggregate at KSAV the driest Sept-Feb since way back in 1931-2 (though 1931-2 was much drier) and were <50% of the 1991-2020 avg of 19.74”!Driest Sept-Feb KSAV on record:6.52” 1931-2 6.64” 1917-8 7.78” 1901-29.04” 1906-79.06” 1889-909.38” 2025-69.44” 2001-29.55” 1940-119.74” 30 yr avg

Hey suzook, I don’t know if you’ve seen it but latest FFC has only ~68 in your area and only ~62 closer in to ATL due to their stronger wedged E winds for Mon’s highs. CHS has us here similar to your 68 with brisk NE winds from the wedge. But indeed, this with lots of sunshine is still a far cry from the 40s cloudy/cold rain highs in NC.

Thanks, Mitch. This thread is the perfect place. Although we have to take this new CANSIPS run with a huge grain as @snowman19correctly reminded us, it is at least encouraging from my perspective for two reasons: -decent chance at a much lower hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026 -next winter’s E US cold potential Regarding next winter, this run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026: Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run: One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:

The NOAA Feb NAO will likely come in between +0.35 and +0.60. That would easily be high enough to give us still another winter without low sunspots/not near a solar minimum without a sub -0.25 NAO as I’m projecting -0.13 to -0.20, which I’d classify as neutral. My def. of neutral is between -0.25 and +0.25. It was headed to sub -0.25 as it was ~-0.45 winter to date as of Feb 14th, but the strong +NAO of the 2nd half of Feb raised the average. So although this was the closest call to finally stopping the non-negative NAO non-low sunspot combo streak, it appears we’ll still be able to say that the only -NAO winters since 1980 (only 6 of them) have been during sub 30 sunspot averaged winters.

EWs: 1. ~100% chance for SSWE Mar 4th 2. Last 2 runs: Week 6, Apr 6-12, is coldest week in absolutes! Not easy to do in spring!

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AAM says here comes El Niño!

Today’s EW is back down to -5 for the low of the 10 mb mean wind (2nd lowest to the run of 3 days ago that had -11) and it has 100% reversing (same as run of 3 days ago) though the run still shows no sign of notable longlasting cold before April (only subtle hint for Apr 6-12 in Midwest/NE): note that I don’t base these posts on the bogus too cold especially late portion of WB extended EPS, which practically every run go to BN in most of the E US late and Rockies most of run; if one goes by those, they’ll always be thinking cold in the E US by late in the runs….ridiculous; unfortunately these too cold maps influence some pro mets @donsutherland1is aware of this problem More on the WB cold bias issue: Today’s April 6-12 from ecmwf: a few areas 1-2F BN and that’s the coldest! This is what I mean by just subtle hints of cold: Today’s April 6-12 from WB: the west is absolutely laughable and east is also significantly too cold! And note that this climo (1991-2020) is colder climo than ecmwf, which uses just the last 20 years meaning that alone should make the WB maps a little warmer rather than significantly colder than the in-house maps!

Wow! In terms of light freezes, KSAV has had them as late as April 16th! But that 32 was way back during a colder era, 1962. However, we’ve much more recently in early April had 2 light freezes in 2007 and even a 32 on April 3rd just 5 years ago!

Thanks. Even way down here, record lows til the midpoint of March are in hard freeze territory including a 26 on March 16th in 2017! There were even a couple of hard freezes in late March though they were way back in the 1950s.

Thanks for posting this. These are interesting to follow. -GEFS not surprisingly came in a bit weaker with its amplitude. However, it still remains stronger than Euro/JMA. -Stark timing differences remain. On March 7th, whereas GEFS is still in phase 5, EPS/JMA are in phases 7/1!

But that means of course that anyone wanting to see the 0Z Euro before bedtime has to stay up an extra hour. I’m not looking forward to that and all of the runs of models coming out an hour later. I like the GFS starting to roll at 10:30 instead of 11:30 AM/PM. The MJO and teleconnection indices also come out an hour later.

That’s news to me, Anthony, even up your way: Today’s Euro Weeklies are mild, not cold, at midmonth: Mar 9-15: way above normal NYC Mar 16-22: AN NYC