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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd: June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
  2. GaWx
    The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues:
  3. GaWx
    The NDJ Euro fcast made July 2023 was actually pretty close in most of the U.S. as per this post I made (see link below) with a good portion within 1F. Only the N tier was several degrees too cold: In addition as I said in the same post, the Euro July NDJ of both ‘25 and ‘24 were significantly too warm in the E US. -‘23: I could call it either close overall or net slightly too cold due to the N tier -‘22 was a bit too cold in most of the E US, but that’s the only one like that since 2017! -‘21 was slightly too warm in the E US -‘20 and ‘19 were pretty close in the E US -‘18 was a bit too warm NE US and close in the MidAtlantic/SE -’17 was too warm in the E US So for E US in their July NDJ forecasts, the tally is 5 too warm (‘25, ‘24, ‘21, ‘18, ‘17) and only 2 too cold even if I count ‘23 (‘23 and ‘22) as too cold. That in no way suggests the likelihood that the ‘26 NDJ just issued will verify too cold (sample size of 9 is decent).
  4. GaWx
    The MEI for May/June was +1.5. How does this compare to past years? 1997 +2.3 1987 +2.1 2015 +1.9 2026 +1.5 Also, the MEI warming from AM to MJ was 1.2, which is 2nd fastest to 1997’s 1.6. The MEI warming from MA to MJ was 2.1, which ties with 1997 for the fastest. @snowman19 @40/70 Benchmark
  5. GaWx
    If those were for early July I’d agree. But the BoM little circles represent the average for the full months.
  6. GaWx
    Week midpoint…1+2…..…3….…..3.4……....4 29APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 03JUN2026 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 17JUN2026 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 24JUN2026 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.6 01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5
  7. GaWx
    I’m here at Tybee Island with some friends in a severe thunderstorm that we just experienced! It was something else! We were inside and I watched it closely! Edit: However, nothing measurable fell at my home well to the W.
  8. GaWx
    For the US averaged out, this is the coldest NDJ on any Euro July forecast back to 2019. Not only that but keep in mind they’ve averaged out too warm since 2017 (significant warm bias as more have verified too warm than too cold): ‘26: ‘25: sig. too warm E US ‘24: significantly too warm most of lower 48 ‘23: close ‘22: a bit too cold E US/significantly too warm W US ‘21: slightly too warm E US/close W US ‘20: pretty close E US; too warm W US ‘19: close -July ‘18 forecast for NDJ was a bit too warm C US to NE and close Mid Atlantic/SE US; was close in W US -July ‘17 fcast for NDJ: too warm E US, too cold W US **Edit: So, for E US, the July Euro NDJ forecast the last nine years averaged too warm in the E US 5 times, close 3 times, and too cold only once. When combined with the July forecast for NDJ being the coldest of the last 9 years, there’s little reason to favor a warm E US NDJ overall at this point based on the Euro. @snowman19
  9. GaWx
    This (NDJ) looks good to me with no suggestion of a warm NDJ in most of the U.S. Actually, H5/2m in a good portion of the E US is near the lowest in the NH! This looks fairly typical of El Niño with the coldest/warmest US anoms in the South/North: Prospects remain excellent to relieve the E US drought, which is typical of strong+ El Niño:
  10. GaWx
    On July 4th, the DMI mean Arctic temp finally reached and exceeded 0C with it at +.01C. That sets a new record latest 1st above freezing as it replaces the old record latest of June 20th, which had been set in 2013.
  11. GaWx
    July 3rd cooled back very slightly. So, the DMI 80N+ mean Arctic temp still hasn’t reached 0C! The old record latest was 6/20/2013.
  12. GaWx
    At 1:40 told me that she was in one of the worst popup thunderstorms she’s ever experienced while driving with high winds, very heavy rain, and small hail in Buckhead near Roswell Rd! Temps suddenly plunged from a sunny 90s to 72 on her car therm! It ended about as fast as it started.
  13. GaWx
    Very intense? Absolutely! One of the most expansive? No way! That along with trying to connect the developing super-Nino with summer heat made his post bad to me. But then Chris Martz had a terrible reply, himself, when he downplayed the U.S. and European heatwaves by saying “It’s called ‘summer’”. Also, he criticized Jeff’s use of the term “heat dome” for the heatwaves even though it has been used frequently in the pro-met community for decades! So, both of them, who are looking at this from opposing standpoints more or less, looked bad here imho.
  14. GaWx
    CFS 10 day mean relative prog is at a new record high prog for its Nov peak in 3.4: SON/OND peak +3.2 vs +3.1 earlier vs +2.5 record (1982): N peak +3.4 vs +3.3 earlier vs +2.7 record (1982):
  15. GaWx
    As of 10AM, Philly is 4F warmer than 24 hours ago (94 vs 90)!
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