GaWx

1. Based on Corcorahs and radar yesterday, I roughly estimate 0.1” fell at my home yesterday (8/27) thus bringing my location at 7.35” mtd through 8/27. 2. More rain has fallen and is still falling there today. I’ll have to roughly estimate later how much for 8/28. As of now the total for today I’m guessing 0.5” at the very least.

I can’t post the maps because they’re too large for the space allowed here, but comparing today’s 12Z UKMET 120 hour map with the 168 hour map of the 12Z UK of 48 hours ago using Pivotal shows they’re very similar with regard to both with a somewhat healthy Dolly (1007 mb/well organized vs 999 mb on the run from 48 hours ago) recurving and the preliminary low back to being just a weak (1012ish) low that’s not designated a TC and headed toward NE FL.

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane. Thanks for posting this. After a careful look at the 6Z GFS, including the progged vorticity for various levels of the atmosphere, it appears to me like this may be a combo of Dolly’s remnants and additional vorticity similar to the vorticity that the last 4 full UKMET runs have shown off the SE coast developing into a sfc low (TC on last 3 runs).

According to the following link, NOAA has switched to RONI as its official way of reporting ENSO effective 2/1/2026 and not just for weak ENSO despite them still maintaining the ONI dataset: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Chris, are you disputing NOAA? NOAA is saying as I think you must realize that measuring against average overall worldwide tropical ocean warming is a more realistic gauge of the strength of ENSO events. Why else did they convert to relative measures for official measurements? Also, BoM has switched among other organizations.

I like to remind folks when I read x-posts like this this from Brody Cowing that ignore using RONI types of measures that some of this intensity of warming in the Nino regions is due to GW and not purely due to the strength of the Nino, itself. When using relative/RONI records put out by NOAA, it’s clear that Nino 1+2 isn’t currently at record highs: 20AUG1997 3.8 2.6 1.8 0.4 19AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Chris Martz posted this on the day of the Nepal flooding disaster. I’m not posting this because of agreement with him since I vehemently disagree. The one thing I’ve been most concerned about regarding CC/GW is what to me has to be an obvious direct result from it, melting of ice and the resultant negative consequences. How can GW not be a cause or contribution to melting ice? I feel I’m open minded about what CC/GW clearly does or doesn’t cause (an example being global wildfire acreage burnt that I’ve recently been posting about) as well as the idea that there are some significant positive results from it (like fewer hunger related deaths resulting from increased world food supply as well as fewer deaths related to GW since cold has killed many more than heat). Some of my posts do address things like that. Also, I’ve recently even posted about the coldest 80N+ late May through most of the summer since at least 1958 per DMS stats possibly contributing to less melting of Arctic ice area this summer vs recent years. But in the case of melted ice in general, I don’t get the doubt about CC causing it like Chris Martz implies: @donsutherland1@chubbsand others, any comments?

The 0Z UKMET has a low form in the subtropics well off the SE coast that later either hits or is about to hit the SE US for the 4th run in a row. Wed. 12Z’s low was weak and it was about to hit NE FL at the end (Sept 2nd). Yesterday’s 0Z had a TS about to come into the S portion of the FL E coast on Sept. 3rd. Yesterday’s 12Z UKMET had TCG at hour 108 that initially moved W but then strengthened into a TS that turned NW to hit Charleston on Sept. 3rd. Today’s 0Z has TCG on Monday (8/31) for the 3rd run in a row with it moving WSW and then making TS status on Tue (9/1). It landfalls on WP Beach on Wed. (9/2) before moving W to the Gulf moving WNW out into the Gulf: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.9N 74.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 01.09.2026 96 28.9N 74.4W 1013 21 1200UTC 01.09.2026 108 28.2N 75.9W 1012 27 0000UTC 02.09.2026 120 27.0N 77.6W 1008 35 1200UTC 02.09.2026 132 26.5N 79.4W 1006 37 0000UTC 03.09.2026 144 26.9N 81.4W 1004 29 1200UTC 03.09.2026 156 27.6N 83.7W 1003 40 0000UTC 04.09.2026 168 28.6N 86.0W 1001 40

12Z UKMET: rapid WNW move in MDR with no strengthening followed by TS strength outside of MDR and change of move to NW well off the SE US at the end with interaction between Dolly and the TS hitting CHS making it more of a forecast challenge: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.08.2026 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 37.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.08.2026 0 13.6N 37.4W 1009 30 0000UTC 28.08.2026 12 14.0N 41.3W 1009 31 1200UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.5N 45.7W 1010 31 0000UTC 29.08.2026 36 15.3N 49.9W 1011 32 1200UTC 29.08.2026 48 16.3N 54.0W 1011 33 0000UTC 30.08.2026 60 17.3N 57.7W 1011 33 1200UTC 30.08.2026 72 18.7N 61.0W 1011 35 0000UTC 31.08.2026 84 19.7N 63.4W 1010 32 1200UTC 31.08.2026 96 20.4N 65.8W 1010 34 0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 21.0N 67.5W 1009 32 1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.5N 69.4W 1007 35 0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 21.8N 70.6W 1006 36 1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 22.8N 72.2W 1004 39 0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 23.7N 73.7W 997 42 1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 25.2N 75.3W 992 49

Keeping in mind that the UKMET was one of the earliest, to consistently predict Dolly with runs doing that going back as far as 7 days fwiw: The 12Z UKMET has a low form in the subtropics well off the SE coast that later either hits or is about to hit the SE US for the 3rd run in a row. Yesterday’s 12Z’s low was weak and it was about to hit NE FL at the end (Sept 2nd). Today’s 0Z had a TS about to come into the S portion of the FL E coast on Sept. 3rd. Today’s 12Z UKMET has TCG at hour 108 that initially moves W but then strengthens into a TS that turns NW to hit Charleston on Sept. 3rd: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.8N 74.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 29.8N 74.4W 1013 26 1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 29.8N 74.8W 1011 30 0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 29.5N 75.8W 1009 36 1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 30.3N 77.3W 1008 37 0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 31.4N 78.5W 1004 39 1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 33.1N 80.0W 1001 39

Hello, Dolly!

I didn’t see the radar loop yesterday (8/26) for my area. However, based on radar based rainfall estimates shown by local TV websites and considering Hunter’s 1.27”, I’m roughly estimating my home got a 2nd day in a row of a good hit yesterday with 0.75” (for 8/26). I’m not there to see a measurement. I already very roughly estimated 1.5” the day before (for 8/25). That puts my place at ~~7.25” MTD, a very beneficial wetter than normal being there’s still a moderate drought there lingering per the latest Drought Monitor.

Not only did that preceding low appear on the 0Z UK, it is actually classified a TD on the 0Z at hour 108 in the subtropics and a TS at hour 132 on a WSW track ending not too far offshore E coast of FL on the way to a hit there on Sept 3rd as it is trapped by a strong SE H5 high: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.9N 72.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.08.2026 108 29.9N 72.3W 1014 25 0000UTC 01.09.2026 120 29.4N 72.3W 1011 30 1200UTC 01.09.2026 132 28.9N 72.4W 1007 35 0000UTC 02.09.2026 144 28.0N 73.7W 1005 37 1200UTC 02.09.2026 156 27.3N 75.6W 1005 38 0000UTC 03.09.2026 168 26.8N 77.3W 1003 37 Meanwhile, 96L is initialized as a TD, which is consistent with its 12Z run. Again, it remains a TD moving rapidly WNW in the MDR with a skimming of the N Leewards. It then becomes a TS but then it misses the SE Bahamas as it turns NW and NNW due to Fujihara around the preceding TS: TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.1N 33.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 27.08.2026 0 14.1N 33.5W 1011 29 1200UTC 27.08.2026 12 13.8N 37.1W 1010 29 0000UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.2N 41.5W 1010 29 1200UTC 28.08.2026 36 14.4N 46.4W 1011 31 0000UTC 29.08.2026 48 15.1N 50.8W 1011 29 1200UTC 29.08.2026 60 16.0N 54.9W 1012 32 0000UTC 30.08.2026 72 16.8N 58.5W 1012 30 1200UTC 30.08.2026 84 18.2N 61.9W 1012 32 0000UTC 31.08.2026 96 19.3N 64.9W 1011 30 1200UTC 31.08.2026 108 20.8N 67.1W 1011 31 0000UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.9N 68.8W 1011 29 1200UTC 01.09.2026 132 22.5N 70.0W 1009 30 0000UTC 02.09.2026 144 23.6N 70.4W 1007 32 1200UTC 02.09.2026 156 25.5N 70.9W 1007 36 0000UTC 03.09.2026 168 27.2N 71.6W 1008 37 @WxWatcher007 Complications like this fascinate me as they make the forecasting much more difficult, which makes for more interesting forecast discussions.

^More on this: The very strong Nino seasons of 1982 and 1877 only had 1 TC by Aug 26th. 1965 only had 2. And 2026 so far has been a sig. stronger Nino than these 3. @TheDreamTraveler