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GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
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    SAV, GA
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    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    12Z UKMET is slightly stronger than 0Z with it showing 35 knots/barely TS this time before it dissipates by hour 60 moving W into LA, a similar track to 0Z/6Z runs. It then comes out S of LA but in a weakened state below TD status as it heads into the Galveston vicinity: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 85.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.4N 85.5W 1008 23 0000UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.8N 85.9W 1006 25 1200UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.7N 86.3W 1005 35 0000UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 86.9W 1004 33 1200UTC 22.07.2026 48 30.1N 87.6W 1006 29 0000UTC 23.07.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING
  2. GaWx
    Do you have a guess for the +IOD peak?
  3. GaWx
    The weeklies keep coming in lower than my guesses as Nino 3.4 came in at only +1.4 for last week vs my +1.5 guess. This is surprisingly low when considering that it is OISST based. It is for the prior week averaged out, but still +1.4 looks low when comparing to this relative OISST graph. The avg of last week, the last 7 dots on the image below, is actually ~+1.6!
  4. GaWx
    Thanks, Don. It’s very warm there, no doubt, indicative of a strong Nino. I prefer to compare the relative weeklies for the best apples to apples comparison to the strength of past events due to the GW effect on tropical oceans skewing the straight ENSO anomalies higher in more recent years: For the week centered on 7/15/26, the relative region 1+2 anomaly was at +2.8, a rise from the +2.6 of the prior week and the highest yet for this event. How does +2.8 compare to past events back to 1982 in mid July? 2023: +2.8 2015: +2.3 1997: +3.7 1982: +0.5 So, going back to 1982, 2026’s +2.8 is tied with 2023 for 2nd warmest anomaly in mid-July on a relative basis with 1997 being the warmest: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  5. GaWx
    Correct, Adam. 1982-3 bimonthlies peaked at +2.9. Get this, that peak wasn’t til April-May of 1983. Although April-May is very late even for the MEI peak, it does sometimes peak sig. later than the 3.4 SST anomaly peak. Why? My guess is atmospheric lag vs SSTa peaks since MEI has an atmospheric portion. There’s nothing better to illustrate atmospheric lag than to look at SOI lows for strong Nino events per the monthlies: Event……..SOI low….SSTa peak…Lag (months) 1982-3……Feb ‘83…….Dec ‘82……..2 1991-2…….Jan ‘92…….Jan ‘92…….0 1997-8……Mar ‘98……..Nov ‘97…..4 2009-10….Feb ‘10………Dec ‘09….2 2015-6…...Jan ‘16………Nov ‘15…..2 2023-4…..Feb ‘24………Dec ‘23….2 So, avg lag from SSTa high to SOI low for these 6 strong events was 2 months. MEI peaked late in 1982-3, 1997-8, and 2009-10 (although it didn’t in 2015-6 and 2023-4). https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
  6. GaWx
    Jim Cantore thinks it is on its way to becoming Bertha: “Visible showing a nice twist with TD2 circulation center. There is lightning within the southern flank of that circulation. On its way to TS Bertha status.” https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/2079191019812192469
  7. GaWx
    For the first time in 7 runs, the UKMET doesn’t have a TS from this: it dissipates in the NW GOM similarly to the prior run TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 84.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.0N 84.9W 1009 23 1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 28.5N 85.5W 1008 22 0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.3N 85.7W 1006 27 1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.9N 85.6W 1005 32 0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 29.7N 86.1W 1005 31 1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 30.3N 86.8W 1008 28 0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N 90.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.07.2026 84 28.5N 90.9W 1009 25 0000UTC 24.07.2026 96 28.7N 91.7W 1010 24 1200UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.8N 93.4W 1012 28 0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING
  8. GaWx
    Thanks, Adam. For the period May-July, we’re likely headed to ~-22 avg SOI. One has to go all of the way back to 1905 to find any year at -22 or lower for May-July! Then it was -27. But that was a second year Niño (moderate). The only other one was in 1896, a strong Nino. That was at -28. Per Eric Webb’s tables, 1895-6 barely missed a low end weak Nino because there were only 4 tri-months in a row of +0.5 surrounded by +0.3s! So, 1896-7 was practically a 2nd year Nino. So, 2025-6 with 2024-5 having been La Niña is in uncharted territory going back to the mid-1800s as regards the extremely intense summer -SOI.
  9. GaWx
    Chuck, I don’t follow you. Do you see anything that could prevent a +QBO from starting ~now or in autumn and then going through winter? If so, what? I’ve been banking on it based on the common ~24 month pattern.
  10. GaWx
    How do you know that the El Niño is what caused this? Couldn’t it just be a coincidence? I’m suspicious of that because I couldn’t find even one similar occurrence with any of the other super-Nino events! @40/70 Benchmark@Stormchaserchuck1 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data
  11. GaWx
    Don’t forget that CDAS is slightly cold biased. But this chart isn’t relative. Relative OISST is in the +1.6-+1.7 range. I’m guessing that tomorrow’s weekly relative Nino 3.4 release will have it at +1.5 with +1.6 on the high end.
  12. GaWx
    That July 16th Darwin 1018.25 mb is its 2nd highest on record back to 1991. The highest is only barely higher, 1018.35 (mid-2004). *Corrected
  13. GaWx
    Thanks, Chuck. So, temps are clearly colder with W vs E based. Is some of this because the strongest El Niño winters tend to have warmer 1+2? However, with regard to wintry precip, itself, the SE appears to have done a bit better with C based (3.4 warmest) than W based (4 warmest) if I’m recalling my research correctly.
  14. GaWx
    I realize ‘25-6 DJF was mild overall in the CONUS on a geographic basis. I’m not disputing that. But I think you’re being a bit too harsh on model performance for 25-6. The winter averaged 37.1F, which was 3.1F warmer than the Euro’s climo base of 1993-2016 and 3.0F warmer than the CFSv2’s climo base of 1991-2020. The forecasted mean anomaly for both the 8/1/25 Euro and the mid-July ‘25 avg CFSv2 was ~+2F for the CONUS on a geog. area basis or ~36F. This was actually a bit warmer than the 35.6 of 1994-5. Thus, the models were only ~1F too warm on a geog. area basis. Here are the warmest CONUS winters since 1895-6 (excluding 2025-6): 37.5 in 2023-4 36.8 in 2015-6 36.5 in 1999-00 36.4 in 1991-2 36.3 in 2011-2 36.3 in 1998-9 36.0 in 1999-00 Thus, with their ~36F progged mean, these 2 models were essentially predicting about the 7th-8th warmest CONUS winter since 1895-6. It came out 2nd. I think that’s pretty darn good. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026
  15. GaWx
    Mid July ‘25 CFSv2 2m fcast for winter 25-6: 8/1/25 Euro 2m fcast for winter 25-6: Actual 2m for winter 25-6: So, these 2 were much too warm in the E US, pretty close central, and not nearly warm enough W, especially in/near Rockies. W coast though was fairly close. *Edited for typo
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