GaWx

I have just read some very sad news. Roger Smith, who ran the annual hurricane season forecast contests in this forum at least going back to 2016, passed away on February 24th. He put a lot of thought into these contests as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios. The large number of contestants is all one needs to know to realize how well run these were. May Roger rest in peace. https://www.clarksfuneral.ca/obituaries/Roger-James-Smith?obId=47411042

This is very sad to read. Roger also ran annual AmericanWx hurricane season forecast contests at least going back to 2016, which is how I best knew him. He put a lot of thought into these as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios. May Roger rest in peace.

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet:

I just took an enjoyable walk in 47F windy post cold frontal 34F dew-point Canadian air at a park. I love strong cold fronts! Trash bins and other things were blown over there from this wind. Looking forward to more walks in this great wx the rest of the week. Looking for a low in the mid 30s at KSAV followed by a mid 50s high tomorrow making for one of the coldest St. Patrick’s Day parades in a long time! Erin go Blarney!

I’m guessing that’s right ahead of the cold front, itself. And what a cold front! Second memorable one within a week. This one may not have as much contrast between airmasses, but it’s going to make it significantly colder and for longer than what came in after the prior one.

Moderate to strong El Niños also often have a lot to say about prevailing tracks and direction of movement. From what I’ve researched of Nino seasons, there’s a tendency for more of the MDR tracks to not go as far west in the basin vs non-Nino seasons. They tend to gain latitude more quickly and recurve further east. But these are just averages and it takes only one to make for a very bad season. In addition to increased shear, El Nino seasons may tend to be less moist in the tropics. Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod.

I don’t know what forum covers Birmingham, AL, but they got ~1”!! Is that insane?

Can you believe this? Birmingham measured ~1”!! That’s insane!

It’s sleeting all the way down to Peachtree City well south of Atlanta!

1. It will go dormant that fast? 2. It will turn green again, regardless, very soon.

Photo confirmation of sleet pellets falling on my sis’ deck just now! She’s not far from Emory area of NE ATL.

Our tornado watch just expired. We’re now getting a line of storms along the leading edge of rain with gusty winds. It looks kind of rough along the coast to my south though I don’t see any severe warnings yet. But this was issued at 1:59PM: 159 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026 ..A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LIBERTY...MCINTOSH BRYAN AND CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT... AT 159 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HARRIS NECK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DARIEN, COFFEE BLUFF, WINDSOR FOREST, MONTGOMERY, VERNONBURG, HARRIS NECK AND HALFMOON LANDING.

This map suggests the highest risk for tornadoes is in far E NC in the red area fwiw:

Yeah, bad NAO trends overall. But there’s still a short cold period showing up for ~3/28. So, though not likely, some NE big cities’ snow still can’t be ruled out for then.

Followup: even higher NAO in today’s forecast except the very end…so continuation of yesterday’s +NAO trend: Yesterday: Today: Edit: MJO still forecasted to be in 8 most of rest of March fwiw.