GaWx

The AO and NAO forecasts have lowered since 2 days ago in week 2 based on a day by day comparison. AO today: NAO today: NAO 2 days ago:

Latest MJO: all forecasted days are in phases 7 and 8, the coldest post Niña winter March phases on avg per records:

It may end up super-strong. But Eric likes to make bold calls and thus has had his share of bad busts before. So, we’ll see. Keep in mind the Euro’s warm bias in predicting ENSO as well as the fact that RONI is currently 0.5C cooler than ONI, which is what most of the model charts are showing.

I took my first walk outside in ~a week this evening due to the end of false summer. It was pleasant with near normal mid 50s, dewpoints near 40, and a nice steady breeze. Looking forward to nice walking wx over almost every one of the next 10 days. Spring has sprung. Actually it is a fallback to spring in this odd March!

From KCHS at 7:15AM: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 50 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BRYAN BULLOCH CANDLER CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS JENKINS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ALLENDALE BEAUFORT COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALLENDALE, BEAUFORT, BLUFFTON, CLAXTON, COTTAGEVILLE, DARIEN, EDISTO BEACH, ESTILL, FAIRFAX, FORT STEWART, GARDEN CITY, GLENNVILLE, HAMPTON, HARDEEVILLE, HILTON HEAD ISLAND, HINESVILLE, LUDOWICI, METTER, MILLEN, PEMBROKE, POOLER, REIDSVILLE, RICHMOND HILL, RIDGELAND, RIDGEVILLE, RINCON, SAINT GEORGE, SAVANNAH, SPRINGFIELD, STATESBORO, SUMMERVILLE, SYCAMORE, SYLVANIA, TYBEE ISLAND, VARNVILLE, WALTERBORO, AND YEMASSEE.

Chuck, Crude has quietly risen $18 (to almost $95) just since the 1PM low of yesterday! Normally, this move alone would be quite notable. But after Monday’s near all time extreme volatility, it seems relatively orderly.

I didn’t check my thermometer again during the heat of the day. But KSAV had a record high of 91, easily beating the old record of 87! KSVN also hit 91. Summer’s here! KATL tied its record high of 82.

Folks, I just saw 86.5 on my thermometer at 12:07PM EDT!! It has since fallen back to a cold 86.1 lol.

Today’s MJO forecasts: GEFS EPS

A high of 90 is forecast for this area aided by a steady SW wind pinning the seabreeze and highs have been overperforming a couple of degrees, possibly related to the drought. So, the record high of 87 has a great chance to be broken. Meanwhile, lows in the 30s a couple of days next week will be possible along with highs only in the 50s, which is colder than recent 60s lows! That will make for quite a chilly St. Patrick’s Day parade. Looking forward to that and also a low 40s low well before that on Friday.

Thanks. Based on my calling a -0.25 to +0.25 DJF averaged NAO “neutral”, I actually have 25-26 as neutral due to a -0.11 average. It was easily headed to sub -0.25 with a -0.4 winter to date avg. as of Feb 12th, but the strong +NAO of Feb 13-28 brought the avg. up to -0.11. Nevertheless, the -0.11 is the lowest NAO of a 35+ sunspot winter since 1997-8, quite a notable achievement with sunspots at 105. winter. One has to go all the way back to 1978-9 to find the last true -NAO DJF during an active sunspot winter.

Hey Ray, Good job overall! How impactful would you say was the late Nov SSWE?

KSAV had a torchy 89 high today, which missed the 1974 record by only 2. What happened to spring?

Snow chances this far south have, of course, been done. We got the 3/4” on 1/31, which is quite snowy for way down here and was very enjoyable! I’m just looking forward to the clean chilly Canadian air, which is always welcomed. Will we get any more freezes or frosts though? Not from the first real short chill as that will get us to ~45. The second, however, should get us a couple of 30s.

I’m most looking forward to 3/13 and especially 3/16-20, the colder of the two periods. Yes, it’s pretty short but I’ll take whatever I can get before summer resumes.