GaWx

That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.

May DCA: -0.6 NYC: -0.3 BOS: +0.3 ORD: -1.6 ATL: -0.5 IAH: +0.4 DEN: +2.0 PHX: +2.6 SEA: +2.8

Monthly “WP” table has this for D, J, and F 2025-6: 2025 Dec 0.08 2026 Jan 0.07 Feb 0.23 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data Daily WPO has one of the most negative WPO Decembers on record with every day <0. There’s no way that a monthly of +0.08 has anything to do with the actual WPOs of Dec 2025. It looks like a major malfunction: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Is “WP” (monthly table) the same as “WPO” (dailies, which we know were negative most of the winter)? That table has positives in each of D, J, and F! Can’t be the same thing! It has +.08, +.07, and +0.23 lmao.

Dec daily WPO: every day was negative and yet that table has +0.08. So, that table is looking at something else. The monthly table url has “wp” in it. Is “wp” the same as “WPO”? 2025 12 01 -163.44 2025 12 02 -139.59 2025 12 03 -103.12 2025 12 04 -115.00 2025 12 05 -37.98 2025 12 06 -31.37 2025 12 07 -48.33 2025 12 08 -84.47 2025 12 09 -106.99 2025 12 10 -130.04 2025 12 11 -192.25 2025 12 12 -316.04 2025 12 13 -347.69 2025 12 14 -304.25 2025 12 15 -259.07 2025 12 16 -205.71 2025 12 17 -191.49 2025 12 18 -190.96 2025 12 19 -200.61 2025 12 20 -183.89 2025 12 21 -135.08 2025 12 22 -127.59 2025 12 23 -138.14 2025 12 24 -130.99 2025 12 25 -113.55 2025 12 26 -107.01 2025 12 27 -95.19 2025 12 28 -71.08 2025 12 29 -82.61 2025 12 30 -127.57 2025 12 31 -123.82 https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Well, I’ll put it this way. That table of monthlies isn’t even close to what the avg of the dailies comes out to. Dec was -WPO every day. Also, Jan and Feb averaged -WPO. I crunched the numbers. link to daily WPO: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

According to the average of the daily WPOs at the link below, it certainly did average a -WPO this winter: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Ray, Please provide your link to the monthly WPO. Something seems off. TIA

In my area where ~1” fell on April 26th (during the week ending 8AM on April 28th), which is more than the normal week’s ~0.75”. I don’t see how that area really worsened a category between 8AM on April 21st and 8AM on April 28th with that week being wetter than normal. I’m thinking that some reports came in between 8AM 4/21 and 8AM 4/28 that were based on conditions prior to 4/26. Keep in mind that 8AM 4/28 was merely the deadline to get reports in that would be reflected on today’s map. For example, I’d think that the 4/28 deadline would incorporate reports coming in on, say, 4/25. Also, some reports submitted could easily be based on conditions from 1-2 days prior to the submission. So, reporting lag would have two components to consider. I’m not saying no area in reality worsened. Your area is a good example of one that really did worsen from what you’re saying. But your area’s worsening doesn’t represent the entire SE. This isn’t meant to be a criticism as reporting lag can’t be prevented…it’s totally normal. And I’m not at all trying to downplay the drought, which has been and still is a bad one overall.

I’m not saying that I expected my county (Chatham) to improve a category. But the bulk of my county worsened a category despite 0.5-1” of rainfall in a good portion of it. I believe reporting lag was the reason for a good portion of that worsening of a category. Some other counties in GA as well as in AL, SC, and S NC were in a similar boat. Example: 4 counties in NE GA. It’s not just my county. This isn’t meant to be a criticism as reporting lag can’t be prevented…it’s totally normal.

I believe that there’s notable reporting lag. I don’t mean just that the map is as of 8AM of two days ago (4/28). Note that not a single area of the SE got better on the map released today vs the map released one week ago (in addition to many areas getting worse). See the maps below. I don’t see how that’s reflecting reality. Based on looking at rainfall reports across the SE for prior to 8AM on Tue there was moderate to heavy rainfall in portions of especially N AL to S NC during the several days prior to April 28th. Despite that, some of those counties actually got worse vs the map as of the prior weekly map. I believe that due to the time needed to gather reports that there’s reporting lag of perhaps a few days. In other words, these maps as of Tue at 8AM are in reality probably reflecting closer to, say, an average of 8AM on Saturday or whatever. Tue at 8AM is just the deadline to get reports in so they have time to compile the map for the Thu AM release. In reality, there’d be reports coming in before Tue…say on a Saturday for example. And then that Sat submission could have been based on a Fri or Thu observation. Map released one week ago: Map released today: no improvement anywhere and worse in many spots: not realistic imho…example much of my county got nearly 1” of rain on Sunday (heaviest since March 6th), well before Tue 8AM deadline for submission, and yet my county got a worse designation!

Snapshot current RONI equivalent appears to me to be fairly steady near +0.3C (temporary pause).

I got ~0.15” this morning.

Get ready 2 not torch in May per latest EW. No denying that! Next 4 weeks:

Plenty more to come over the next few days and hopefully over the next few weeks. I think the worst of this drought is done for a good portion of the SE. I got 0.8” on Sunday. That was the heaviest for me since at least March 6th.