GaWx

The 12/8-10 MJO were all in very weak 5-6 (essentially neutral):

In the interest of showing objectivity, I expect the 12Z Euro, which is about to be released, to not be as cold as the 0Z that I posted 3 temp anom maps from. But the overall trends toward not as warm, more CAD, and instability of models within just a week seems real to me and tells me not to bet the farm at least yet on a mainly mild 12/18-31 mid-Atlantic south like has been suggested by ens. means. We’ll see. Edit for 12:55 update on 12Z Euro vs 0Z: -12/20 map not quite as cold but still BN -12/22 and 12/25 maps much warmer ————— I expected this because 0Z was such a cold run and thus appeared to go too far. But regardless, 12/20 is overall still trending colder in model consensus and models remain unstable telling me to not bet too heavily on late month mild domination.

The dreaded 0Z Euro E US torch: awful! 12/20: 12/22: 12/25:

I remain on “hope the Euro Weeklies for Jan fail miserably mode” because not only did today’s hold onto the mild pattern (though consistent blowtorch still well W of the E US thanks probably to refreshing CAD at times), they warmed that final week of the run (1/19-25) vs yesterday: H5 yesterday’s run for 1/19-25: H5 today’s run for 1/19-25: 2m yesterday’s run for 1/19-25: 2m today’s run for 1/19-25: Edit: Lakes to NE still average near normal temps almost every week of the run.

NG bulls want the opposite of this EPS HDD trajectory (see left graph): the cold part through 12/15 was dialed in to prices many days ago:

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/ Then click on 2nd map on right.

WCS: Pretty steady for now but still within a longer term (6 month) rise:

Today’s GEFS PNA forecast is the most negative for this Dec that I can recall: This implies the realistic chance for a sub -1 Dec PNA. Whereas that’s bad news for those wanting E US cold in the 2nd half of Dec in the MidAtlantic/OH Valley south, it isn’t necessarily bad news for January prospects. That’s because in the vast majority of cases for -ENSO, the PNA in January rose sharply from Dec: PNA Dec/Jan for -ENSO for strongly -PNA in Dec - 1955-6: -2.1/-1.3 (rose 0.8) - 1961-2: -1.2/-0.1 (rose 1.1) - 1964-5: -1.7/-0.2 (rose 1.5) - 1971-2: -1.5/-1.4 (rose 0.1) - 1984-5: -1.6/+1.6 (rose 3.2) - 1996-7: -1.2/+0.6 (rose 1.8) - 2008-9: -1.4/+0.6 (rose 2.0) - 2010-1: -1.8/+1.3 (rose 3.1) - 2012-3: -1.0/+0.6 (rose 1.6) - 2013-4: -0.9/+1.0 (rose 1.9) - 2021-2: -1.6/+1.0 (rose 2.6) So, average PNA rise Dec to Jan for these was a whopping 1.8! Dec temperature anomalies: coldest N Rockies to N Plains/mild much of SE 1/3: Jan temp. anomalies: coldest shifts 1,000 miles SE and warmth gone https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Natural gas is down still another 3% on the day, which brings the total drop since the peak of 8 days ago to a very steep 25% on an anticipated much warmer E US pattern (though maybe not to a torch in the means as I stated in my prior post) starting mid to late next week and continuing for the foreseeable future! At least that’s some good news for future heating bills. @Stormchaserchuck1

The Euro Weeklies suggest the most intense and persistent torching will actually be concentrated well to the W and SW of the E coast. So, whereas a big warmup vs the current very cold pattern is coming on all models, that big warmup in the E US appears to take it to only moderately warmer than normal instead of downright torchy when averaged out.

And there’s even a chance at still another with the Arctic plunge coming in Sunday!

Once we get to Dec 17th, the SE will have had virtually every day colder than normal for 3 weeks. In addition, much of NC will have had 3 snows even though mainly minor. In the past few decades, only 2010 will have been clearly colder for that same period and 2002/2000 close, but none of those had 3 different snows in the RDU/GSO area. 1989 was the last time it was this cold and with 3 snows during this early period.

For the SE US early next week, this is going to be quite the intense cold snap but also quick! Enjoy it while you can as that will probably be the last opportunity for very intense cold for quite awhile. It’s entirely possible it will end up the coldest of the season though there’s no way to know obviously.

Anthony, Thanks. Indeed, I realize that. The difference is that the one I posted is the official RMM that will go into the records together with all since 6/1/1974, the others that are already in the record book for folks like me to analyze. The ones you posted won’t. I’m not sure why they differ, but I prefer the Australian RMM. The ones you posted will be later essentially be forgotten by history.

Indeed, in Dec it is for the E US close to the worst, if not THE worst along with phase 6 as the image below shows. However, this is only a VERY weak phase 5 (not too far from the center of the circle) and thus isn’t nearly as bad on average as phase 5 is outside of the circle (it’s probably close to neutral):