Jump to content

GaWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    18,803

  • Joined

About GaWx

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

Recent Profile Visitors

45,939 profile views
  1. GaWx
    Thanks, Mitch. Indeed, “E based” can be defined in numerous ways as it’s not black and white, of course. Here are the relative anomalies for the strongest of years in 3.4 as of the closest week centered on June 10th back to 1982: 1+2 3 3.4 4 09JUN1982 -0.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 11JUN1997 3.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 12JUN2002 -0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 10JUN2015 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 Just looking at this period rather than model progs for fall/winter, here are my rankings of most to least E based: 1997, 2026, 2015, 2002, 1982 though 2026 is only slightly ahead of 2015
  2. GaWx
    The latest OISST 3.4 1991-2020 anom of +1.607, which is for June 14th, is the warmest for this Nino to date and is ~0.075C warmer than that for June 13th making it the largest warming for any day since June 5th:
  3. GaWx
    I see only 1979+ in the table. Based on it, the 2026 rise from MA to AM of 0.9C (-0.6 to +0.3) is the biggest rise for MA to AM since at least 1979. The previous biggest was the 0.7C of 2015: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
  4. GaWx
    Nino 3.4 officially warmed by 0.2 in today’s update from +0.7 to +0.9: 1+2 3 3.4 4 06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 03JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  5. GaWx
    June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958! This is pretty surreal in our warming world: 2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C! 2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C: 1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C: 1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C:
  6. GaWx
    It was pouring here in Woodstock in Cherokee County N of ATL just a few minutes ago with a passing shower.
  7. GaWx
    Chuck and others, check this out: June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958! This is pretty surreal in our warming world: 2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C! 2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C 1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C 1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C
  8. GaWx
    RDU high a “much cooler” 96 today vs 103 yesterday.
  9. GaWx
    Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??: 7/25: ~-0.6 8/25: ~0 9/25: ~0 10/25: ~-0.3 11/25: ~0 12/25: ~+0.35 1/26: ~0 2/26:~-0.5 3/26: ~-0.6 4/26: ~-0.6 5/26: ~-0.7 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.
  10. GaWx
    Yes, ncep ~-0.75 to -1 vs WCS
  11. GaWx
    2PM vs 24 hrs ago: RDU 7 cooler, more clouds, and NW vs SW winds
  12. GaWx
    Models are suggesting -SOI will lessen. There’s chance -SOI will end 6/16. If so, could be 6 days of +SOI before goes back -. Guessing per models 6/14: -15 to -20 6/15: -6 to -13 6/16: +5 to -6 6/17: +8 to -5 6/18: +16 to +1 6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point) 6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2
  13. GaWx
    Despite being steady last 7 days, I predict that 3.4 will warm by 0.3 in Mon’s update because of how the weeks compare.
  14. GaWx
    Good news vs yesterday though: RDU 6 cooler and N vs W winds vs 24 hrs ago. For first time in days, RDU not hottest in SE. Ft Bragg is 4 hotter than RDU, for example.
  15. GaWx
    Today’s -29 is the 33rd straight day with a sub -5 SOI. Tomorrow will make 34. That’s pretty historic because that will make it the 3rd longest sub -5 streak on record back to 1991! The only two longer ones were in 1997-8 and they were extremely long: 51 and 42 days, respectively. The beauty of the SOI is that it doesn’t appear to be strongly affected by CC. Thus it doesn’t need a RONI-like adjustment to remain a good indicator of ENSO strength.
×
×
  • Create New...