Jump to content

GaWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    18,714

  • Joined

About GaWx

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

Recent Profile Visitors

44,925 profile views
  1. GaWx
    The model progs are suggesting a shot at a 1017 mb Darwin SLP on June 7th. If that occurs, it would easily become the new highest Darwin SLP that early in the year based on records back to 1992. The current record highest that early in the year is 4/22/2023’s 1016.2 mb. If it reaches 1017, it would become the earliest 1017 on record by ~15 days!
  2. GaWx
    Here we go folks. June 2nd was the 2nd day in a row of a steep warming in 3.4 (another 0.09) (RONI up to ~+0.7C). That makes it a two day warming total of 0.18C! It hasn’t warmed at this rate since way back in mid-April. A notable but delayed warming after the start of a long and strong -SOI period is common and was in addition to model hints why I said on Monday before this two day rise to expect after the prior 15 day pause next week’s weekly 3.4 update to be a few ticks warmer:
  3. GaWx
    This morning was a refreshing low of 60 at KSAV and 64 at KSVN. Dewpoints are in the very nice/rare for June mid 40s. So, needless to say, I intend to walk at one of the parks this evening as I did yesterday.
  4. GaWx
    I also have 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers since 1980: 1982, 1987, 1994, 2006, 2015, 2018 I’m counting the barely positive QBOs of 1997 and 2004 as neutral QBO. Otherwise there’d be 8. The only one of the 6 that wasn’t warm in the E US was 2018, which was NN to slightly AN in the E US. So, it appears to be a pretty good correlation although the sample size is pretty small. Aside: Today’s SOI was the most negative so far this year at -34.80.
  5. GaWx
    Lower anomalies in 3/1+2 than 3.4/4. The bigger/smaller the differential, the stronger/weaker the Modoki.
  6. GaWx
    I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.
  7. GaWx
    There was just some very light rain today (a T). It was windy from the E as cooler, drier air was coming in. With temps down to the mid 70s, the steady breeze, and dewpoints in the mid 50s, it easily felt good enough to walk at the park for the first time in nearly 2 weeks despite a few rain drops.
  8. GaWx
    OISST rose on June 1st a whopping ~0.09C, which is the largest gain in one day since way back on April 13th! Is this just the start of an overall big warming? Based on the recent SOI and models, I think it is:
  9. GaWx
    Latest CFS run’s peak: +3.0 (record is 1982’s +2.5). Whereas this could easily be overdone based on the past, getting at least a 1982 like record peak of +2.5 is likely at this point. This has June at +1.0. With today near +0.6, there’s going to need to be pretty rapid warming within the next couple of weeks to keep up with this. Based on the recent/current strong -SOI, this is quite doable as of now:
  10. GaWx
    Nino 3.4 was unchanged at +0.5 in yesterday’s release. The other 3 regions warmed 0.1. I’m expecting 3.4 to be a few ticks warmer in the next weekly release as a typical delayed reaction to the start of the SOI drop a couple of weeks ago. 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7
  11. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris. Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.
  12. GaWx
    Latest CFS DJF fits super Nino climo well unlike what Cansips is still showing, which may be related to it having Modoki: CFS DJF: looks like what one would expect with super-Nino: Cansips DJF: still looks off but may be due to it having Modoki
  13. GaWx
    Cansips is still going full Modoki unlike Euro and CFS. But I think it may have a Modoki bias based on at least one previous year. Latest Cansips DJF has warmest SST anomalies over W region 3.4/region 4: (**corrected** as I had region 3 typo) *Edited for typo
  14. GaWx
    Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?
  15. GaWx
    I’ll give an extreme hypothetical case. Let’s say ONI were +3.3C and RONI were 0C because the tropical oceans were insanely warm. So, in other words, everything in and also around Nino 3.4 as well as the other tropical waters is insanely warm. Then wouldn’t that mean essentially no Nino SST pattern/no contrast vs surrounding waters existing to then lead to typical Nino atmospheric responses? That’s my understanding about the RONI idea.
×
×
  • Create New...