GaWx

Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??: 7/25: ~-0.6 8/25: ~0 9/25: ~0 10/25: ~-0.3 11/25: ~0 12/25: ~+0.35 1/26: ~0 2/26:~-0.5 3/26: ~-0.6 4/26: ~-0.6 5/26: ~-0.7 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.

Yes, ncep ~-0.75 to -1 vs WCS

2PM vs 24 hrs ago: RDU 7 cooler, more clouds, and NW vs SW winds

Models are suggesting -SOI will lessen. There’s chance -SOI will end 6/16. If so, could be 6 days of +SOI before goes back -. Guessing per models 6/14: -15 to -20 6/15: -6 to -13 6/16: +5 to -6 6/17: +8 to -5 6/18: +16 to +1 6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point) 6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2

Despite being steady last 7 days, I predict that 3.4 will warm by 0.3 in Mon’s update because of how the weeks compare.

Good news vs yesterday though: RDU 6 cooler and N vs W winds vs 24 hrs ago. For first time in days, RDU not hottest in SE. Ft Bragg is 4 hotter than RDU, for example.

Today’s -29 is the 33rd straight day with a sub -5 SOI. Tomorrow will make 34. That’s pretty historic because that will make it the 3rd longest sub -5 streak on record back to 1991! The only two longer ones were in 1997-8 and they were extremely long: 51 and 42 days, respectively. The beauty of the SOI is that it doesn’t appear to be strongly affected by CC. Thus it doesn’t need a RONI-like adjustment to remain a good indicator of ENSO strength.

RDU’s high was an absolutely blazing 103!! Thank you, drought.

Just to clarify to insure appropriate context: -There’s no doubt that currently Nino 3.4 is very warm for so early in the year. But keep in mind that Eliot’s chart showing the current warmth is from a combination of GW and El Nino. On that basis, it’s clear that Nino 3.4 is by a good margin the warmest on record. -But the best way to compare to past years as far as just El Niño component, itself, is to look at the relative anomalies for the same point in the year. Currently, relative 3.4 is ~+1.0. I’ll now compare to other weeklies, which go back to 1982: 09JUN1982 1.0 11JUN1997 0.8 10JUN2015 0.6 14JUN2023 0.4 So, going back to 1982, 2026 is currently near the warmest on record about tied with 1982, which is itself obviously quite notable. To go back further, I need to look at relative monthlies. So, these won’t give as precise a comparison, but they’re still worth mentioning. Currently, the CFS is projecting June of 2026 to be ~+0.95. I’ll now compare to some past June relatives: 1957 6 1.13 1965 6 1.09 1972 6 0.98 So, 2026 is projected for June, alone, to be slightly cooler than 1957/1965 and ~same as 1972. So, folks need to be careful to not let others deceive you. The current El Niño strength is by no means out on its own and is instead in the general vicinity of 1982, 1972, 1965, and 1957 for the warmest since 1950. Going back further is less reliable for comparison purposes. But per Eric Webb’s MJJ 3.4 anomalies, one could argue that 1877, 1902, 1905, and 1941 could have easily been similar, if not warmer than 2026 in mid June. There’s a good chance that 1877 was a bit warmer and some chance that 1905 was slightly warmer in mid June.

Indeed! That 11AM 95 at RDU is along with Rocky Mount, NC, the hottest of ALL major reporting stations in the SE. 24 hours ago, RDU was “only” 90 and Rocky Mt was 91.

1. The RDU area has some of the driest soils in the SE. So, that’s affecting the current/recent temps for the entire RDU area, not just RDU, itself. 2. The RDU sensor, itself, over the years (not drought related) has been hotter than surrounding major stations supposedly due to the configuration of the station as has been discussed here and at other places.

The latest CFSv2 release has actually cooled ~0.15 to 0.20 vs that from the start of June for the periods starting with JJA: June 1st release: relative peak ~+3.0 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.25 DJF Today’s release: relative peak ~+2.8 (OND) and rapid cooling to ~+2.1 DJF

There were nasty steamy highs of 92 at ATL and 94 at SAV.

RDU reached 101 for a new record!

RDU was once again with their 99 THE hottest at 2PM by 2F of ALL major reporting stations in the entire SE! Louisburg, NC, was next at 97.