Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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3K NAM coming in quite a bit colder which is nice to see. @BornAgain13 trying hard to stay all snow.
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Cuts like crazy after it forms. What a wonky run that was lol.
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AM I nuts to think with the baja energy and the western ridging being delayed in the phase it's going to send two rounds of moisture here? Looks a good bit different at h5? That ridging got super tall this run. Ninja'd by LP08
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h5 does look super interesting though. Baja and Western Ridging really starting to interact. Maybe i'm nuts but it almost looks like it wants to hold back and send initial slug of moisture in and then have a round two.
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Hell at this rate the NAM will have the baja energy go south of Acapulco lol
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Literal copy and paste from Euro lol
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Woof!!
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Also reading per Tomer Burg is saying there's a known issue with Euro regarding PL vs ZR so we may escape damaging ice.
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Man idk.. that’s an stj extreme connection from Mexico. Gonna juicy juice up the lift and ring out everything. Especially if the primary tries to cut some the southeast component is gonna rip.
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Gotta pray 700 doesn't torch to the extent it's straight liquid falling out of the sky rather than sleet meatballs. Frontogenesis is pretty intense rolling thru, so i'm hoping maybe we can somehow keep the column slightly cooler.
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God almighty i'm terrified to see ZR output based on maps slowly trickling out for southern peeps.
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@BornAgain13it is going to be SUPER close on thermals with initial thump as well on GFS. Hr 66 has the death band set up basically directly over the 460 corridor.
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@Bob ChillGFS showing the death band as well at hr 66 running pretty much the entirety of the 460 corridor. Interesting trend to say the least.
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FV3 is downright cold with the initial thump that heads over from the TN Valley.
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How reliable is the FV3? That thing is downright cold with initial thump for the forum.
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This is the ONLY way we can score a coup here is with that inital thump before the mid levels get overcome with grossness.
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12z RGEM a good bit colder. @BornAgain13hr 64 is def worthy of posting. Hell of a WAA thump verbatim for your area north up toward me.
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@Bob Chillcheck out hr 64 on the RGEM. That is an absolute beatdown right across 460 line out to you.
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Love this! This playing out of the models is as old as time.. I didn't buy the Canadian for a second yesterday. The readjustment up until lead time will continue to happen in some sense, as models begin to realize the density of the airmass it will be up against. I personally don't buy the NAM either. The GFS used to be NOTORIOUS for doing this, where it would drive primaries way up into WV/PA and then would come back down to reality.
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Me too but in CT. It was absolutely crippling. Believe it was 98 when the pics coming out of Canada had major substations bent and twisted all over. It was incredible.
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Me thinks NAM is playing catchup with trajectory compared to the Globals for moisture influx. I was more interested in the 24-48 hr mark to see what changes, if any, had happened upstairs. Everything else is take with a grain of salt approach
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NAM juicing things up in central TX/AR at 54 comparatively to 6z run.
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Subtle yet potentially impactful changes out to 48 when weighing anything between sleet vs freezing rain. Heights slightly lower and HP also about 2 mb stronger.
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Great post! Can see that 50/50 is trying to work it's magic here. Any amount helps to lock things in.
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Nice little push to the confluence up top at 36 on the 12Z NAM. See if it translates downstream though as moisture gets closer. That 50/50 low above Maine is trying to help us out.
