Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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Wow the NAM absolutely ravages southern VA on this run. The clown maps are going to be ridiculous. I’m getting the laptop fired up so I can post images tonight.
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Does anyone have any correlation to what “weaker” lows have with a significant and untapped potential regarding tropical connected moisture from the Baja vs lows that bomb out and almost make there own moisture flux say from the gulf? I read some interesting things on what @olafminesaw posted on that hamster link and I feel like after reading that this may be one of the “big” ones for the lower mid Atlantic and the southeast. That tropical connection, along with pwats, waa and subsequent atmospheric processes should lead to some serious rates of snow and in my opinion one heck of an expansive qpf shield, maybe more so than what the models are predicting. Wanted to get an opinion from a met or a pro in regards to this, if there was any studies done or anything like this. This southern low is traveling a long ways and picking up immense moisture along its path.
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We still end up with like 1.50-1.75” nothing to be pissed about. Even if we got an inch we’d still be looking at close to a foot. We’ll have winter storm watches as well with this afternoons package guaranteed. Look at the positives here. FV3, Canadian and the GEFS moved the low closer to the SC coast this run. Qpf shield will respond for us. All is trending well right now imo.
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Ukmet looks like it expanded the precip a little further north for southern VA peeps this run.
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Yup. Two camps setting up here. Ukmet and Euro vs FV3, to an extent GFS and the Canadian. Suppressed vs more north
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FV3 and Canadian are much closer to the coastline of SC and look to be in good agreement with placement there.
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@AsheCounty48 Canadian is a much bigger beast for us and has the low tucked closer to the coast.
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I can speak from a couple instances up my way this year when CAD was overdone so just a word of caution when investing all your feelings in a final solution, with one especially being close to 60 hours away. I had a winter storm warning this year for a 1/2” of ice. Cloud cover moved in and we were able to get down to 32 but by that time it was already raining heavily. They were forecasting 30. Meanwhile @Disc over about 20 miles to my west was 29 and heavy ice in the mountains of Blacksburg. Just play the cards you are dealt. There will be plenty more this year for all of us worst case scenario.
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Folks will hopefully have access to pics soon as I’m sorry I don’t but the FV3 is still Uber wet across the entire area. The cutoff up in central VA with the precip is just straight insane. 1-2” qpf totals across all of VA/NC/SC.
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Being on a phone and trying to view it on the NCEP page is next to impossible but to my naked eye the 0z run looks fairly similar to 18z. Don’t quote me though.
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The Canadian is a snow bomb for northern NC and a lot of VA wow!! Hr 90 it would be ripping absolute fatties. Close to 3 ft of snow northern foothills lmao!
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That could be a very very interesting development if it were to somehow get a hold of the southern stream low a little earlier. I still think it’s a very real possibility at this juncture.
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You would think the low off the coast with the northern stream dropping in wouldn’t make the low rocket east like that.
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@78 the secondary low off SC coast looks like it would want to form just a little closer to the coast, as you can see the precip maxima tucked in ever so slightly.
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I don’t see any myself. Precip shield and LP placement all look similar.
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I was reviewing it after my first post and it has a very odd surface depiction wrt qpf. Big dry slot in SC and up into the CLT area, right when the low is taking off the coast of SC.
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Icon is essentially a swing and a miss for all of VA now at 0z. Barely gets any precip up this way. @90 it has light to moderate snow coming in from the southwest up this way. That cold is serious!
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Nam just slightly further north with the LP at 51 but that doesnt mean anything imo this early in the run.
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It’s the gfs struggling bc of the convection flare up off the coast. Guarantee you once that is resolved it’ll be one hell of a comma head showing up.
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GFS blowing up all the convection around the low pressure this run at 96 off the coast. Always have to watch for the convective feedback where it won’t properly portray what the main precip field will look like but that is still some time away. Main takeaway is getting the details down of cad, LP placement etc before we get into that.
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Great cad signature showing up with that 1035 HP setting up shop in Lake Placid, NY to funnel the cold down. Big snows breaking out for NC/SVA. Low now off East of Savannah, south of CHS.
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Yea LP placement it looks identical. Looks to also be transferring off CHS as well at that juncture
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18z gfs at 66 has the high sliding east a little bit faster than I think some would want to see. 12z has it in Ohio, 18z has it over WV/NW VA at that point.
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Icon is a crush job for foothills and SVA on 18z. Has low sliding by MYR and up toward outer banks. Beginning to think from a consensus standpoint outer banks or just a little south from there will be the track. The Gulf Stream debate could be had for where the lows like to travel when they get to that area.
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Cya man! My parents are actually on vacation in Amsterdam right now. Talk to you soon
