Euro was the warmest model for today over the past couple of days. Everywhere is gonna spike near fropa, but euro was blasting 40s by to CON by 21z on a 48hr forecast
Probably would happen with a stronger primary and the mid levels ripping west. Im most interested in a decent front end and this run looked a little better for that
You really need some wind for big ice. Supplies lower dews from the NE to offset latent heating. It's why for big ice events we really need a meso low. In 08, ORH was gusting 20+
Yeah basically done. Just some lingering freezing drizzle or light sleet. Low levels are gonna stay wedged for a while so probably some fzfg this evening in spots
You want the DGZ saturated with lift through that layer, so a thicker DGZ provides a much larger favorable window. Basically just increases the size of the target.