I mentioned that using analog years from 25-60 years ago is useless because of climate change but it got dismissed by the usual suspects. People who love cold/snowy weather will downplay most anything that doesn't give a signal of cold/snowy weather.
I love a cold/snowy winter but I long ago accepted the reality of climate change.
As I mentioned in the November thread.....people are setting themselves up to be disappointed. The pattern the entire fall was awful heading into the winter season.
Earlier in October there was some mention in the SNE subforum of 76-77 being a good analog year. I mentioned that I would not use 76-77 as an analog because of climate change. At no point did the fall of 2021 compare to the fall of 1976.
I think the reason why so many winter forecasts fail is because the individuals only do a winter forecast but not a forecast for the other 3 seasons. It is sort of like beginning to watch a movie 3/4 of the way thru the movie and trying to determine what is taking place.
There should not be any surprise. As things stand now there doesn't seem to be much in the way of any type of real winter event for the next 7 days at least.
C'mon mods, he shouldn't have to keep the Wentzadelphi name...help the guy out ..this is your chance to not fumble the ball. I am sure you can help him turnover to a new user name...it is the holiday season.
Agree, but it will be interesting to track the trend in the coming years. This morning there was a tornado warning in the Cape Ann area of MA.
I am also wondering if more tornado warnings are being issued out of an abundance of caution.