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JC-CT

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Everything posted by JC-CT

  1. JC-CT
    Navgem is a scraper too, but like the GGEM it is a big adjustment from 6z.
  2. JC-CT
    Not just that, but the overall evolution. That one had a complete phase, although at this lead time some models were showing a similar evolution to the 12z GFS. The source region of the canadian s/w was similar as well.
  3. JC-CT
    I'll go ahead and retract my previous statement. The JMA is dead nuts on the benchmark.
  4. JC-CT
    Trying to figure out a possible analog for this one...not a perfect match, but there are some similarities to Juno (Jan 15).
  5. JC-CT
    Not seeing it. Looks NW of it.
  6. JC-CT
    GGEM is a scraper but a big adjustment from 0z.
  7. JC-CT
    Easy to say now that there are two pieces of 12z guidance that are confirming my thoughts, but these canadian no man's land shortwaves tend to be undermodeled in strength by the satellites and often will trend stronger almost up until go-time.
  8. JC-CT
    Yeah Tip, it was really close to getting out ahead of the northern stream so the northern stream can dig behind it and allow it to turn up the coast. Not much more needed from that depiction.
  9. JC-CT
    100% of the island is without power. Not surprising https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-takes-aim-at-puerto-rico-with-force-not-seen-in-modern-history/?utm_term=.38b085fdf7d7
  10. JC-CT
    TyphoonTip has a pretty good post about it in the New England thread this morning. I wouldn't do any all nighters on a Maria east coast landfall at the moment.
  11. JC-CT
    No question there has been a trend towards a closer track to the east coast. Just still plenty of time for that to completely reverse itself.
  12. JC-CT
    The tools are all there. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017092006&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=0
  13. JC-CT
    Still too far out to matter.
  14. JC-CT
    https://www.pscp.tv/w/1ynJOVqXRAyGR
  15. JC-CT
    Yup. TIKE is a related measurement that takes into account the total track. Sandy crushes all in TIKE.
  16. JC-CT
    There are, they just aren't 4500 feet. More like 3200 at their peak.
  17. JC-CT
    There are no 4500 ft peaks that will help San Juan.
  18. JC-CT
    About 3300 where it will potentially be traversing.
  19. JC-CT
    Still in beast mode
  20. JC-CT
    That's a b line for San Juan
  21. JC-CT
    Not bad
  22. JC-CT
    In all seriousness, say what you will but there are a whole lot of American citizens currently staring down the barrel of a category 5 beast that is only hours away. It's hard to understate the severity of this. It's no Irma, and not in a good way.
  23. JC-CT
    Sandy is #2
  24. JC-CT
    I guess my point is that storms with a lot lower SS rating have had a similar IKE.
  25. JC-CT
    No I did not. Just responding to the last sentence, to not create confusion that 60 IKE is like the max a hurricane can get. I'm sure you know that's not even close to the max.
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