JC-CT

Can't really do a "hurricanes with ike around x are so and so." It takes into account a cyclone's size.

Unfortunately, if it holds course then Dominica will be an afterthought in 48 hours

http://en-us.topographic-map.com

Where are you getting that?

Ok, so you right click, then click "Search Google for image"

The 18z hurricane models moved south again. It could still end up going across the south side of the island.

Certainly looks that way on infrared.

More like 1+ million in the metro.

Hebert...

I can't even remember any of those storms from last year.

It's coming

Looks fck ii ng awful

A) Global warming isn't going to kill the Earth. It, and the life it supports, has survived a few years in the past without mankind, and it will do it again. There is a possibility that Earth is the only planet with advanced life, yes, but it is a pretty slim one. Heck, who says advanced life has to live on a planet? Or within the confines of our universe, or in a universe at all? Throughout our history, humans have overestimated the relative prominence of the world that was known to them vs. the world that was not. It may very well be a mistake to think that this tiny ball of dust is more important and unique on a cosmic level than it really is.

It's hard to bust on a probabilistic forecast.

If we stopped using the NAM as a synoptic model, we would have realized that the Euro was on an island.

Look for consensus, identify trends, evaluate consistency with prior runs and current observations, use ensemble forecasting, make imperfect forecasts.

Seriously though...for synoptic evolution, never look at the NAM. It has it's place in forecasting convection, and possibly looking at CAD. But models like GFS, CMC, UKMET and even the JMA kick its butt at h5 every single time and should be used to search for a consensus before the NAM is ever touched.

And...there is a reason that ensemble forecasting does so well. Blend the general consensus (of globals - NEVER LOOK AT THE NAM)

Same old, same old? and especially NEVER LOOK AT THE NAM lol

Yeah nice job Scott.Btw, people looking at Euro snowfall verbatim compared to 12z...don't forget what already fell.

Details please?

Yeah....Euro is not going to fail 3-6 hours out. It will tell us the answer in 30 minutes.

Good...never been great at eyeballing it, but like I said the flakes are really being pulverized by the wind, which is starting to howl.