JC-CT
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Everything posted by JC-CT
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they earned it -
the ggem holy ridiculousness
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He might "limp" his way to a warning event
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Kevin really gets the "shaft" there
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I look at the ICON for giggles because it's there now, caveat that I think it is a horrible model. But look how much different the 12z run initializes the northern stream in Canada vs the 12z NAM. None of the models have a clue what is actually up there.
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can only compare the black and whites to 0z, but the 12z rgem at 24 hours is definitely more phased than 0z
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fyp, and I agree
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a bit self-contradictory unless you hate snow.
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Do the best VV line up just west of the frontogenesis?
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Just say it..."I agree with Kevin"
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There is some nice banding across the center of CT that run.
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or if the northern stream s/w came in a bit stronger for a sharper trough and earlier capture...
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It probably means it will go to town for the coastal plain but sharper cutoff to the west.
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look at the 500mb height and vorticity maps.
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I actually think the NAM will have a better phase this run.
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I noticed it too. Not just at the end of the run.
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So it is a true CDF based on models?
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He's expecting 2' of powder and ends up with a coating lol
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That's solid for SNE outside the berks. I think you missed the upslope potential though.
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How does it sometimes end up that the expected will be almost exactly the high range, like 10" expected with a high range of 11", but the low range will be like 2" or something?
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Dylan's map is reasonable IMO as long as someone doesn't look at it and only see the high end of the range.
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Hey, I was considering posting about it but then I thought it was so low probability that it wasn't worth it to weenie over. But if there are any tricks left up this one's sleeve, it is with the northern stream. A lot of it hasn't been raob sampled yet, including the energy that creates that late diving shortwave, which could affect the trough orientation ever so slightly one way or the other.
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But you aren't setting the high and low maps yourself, right? I feel like the confusion is that people think there was any thought put into them. I am under the impression that the only thing the local office controls is the expected amount.
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It's computer generated from wpc ensembles? I thought I read that somewhere
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Chris has told us a few times that they have no control over those maps, they are based on WPC as compared to the local office forecasts or something.
