JC-CT

Box selling that pretty hard High confidence in it precipitating across the region late Thursday through Friday and have actually increased chances a bit from the NBM guidance. Biggest uncertainty in the forecast lies in how quickly the colder air advects into the region. This will impact the transition over from rain to a wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain and snow. Based on the NAM/GFS soundings it appears that it would be more sleet versus freezing rain given the depth of the colder air in the lower levels. However, if the colder air pushes in much faster then there would be more accumulating snow. Really tricky forecast as how quick this air punches in will determine the exact Ptypes and expected snowfall accumulations. Given the uncertainty it is still much to early to talk about specific accumulations, but this will have impacts on the Friday AM and PM commute. Those traveling will want to pay attention to the forecast. Confidence was not high enough at this point in time to hoist any sort of Winter Weather Headline, but suspect we will need one in future updates. Will note that guidance has been trending cooler from run to run, but will need to see if this continues for future forecast updates.

Maybe you should

that's pretty close to the GFS now

Why

That's a pretty snowy run north of like a BOS-Springfield line

if 925 to the surface is below 0, that's probably sleet right?

slippery ending...is that what they call it these days?

We are all full of shit...until we're not.

it looks just like the OP...as expected this close in

you look at the off hour icon though

they always just mirror the ggem

Well I see mets referring to the 6z/18z rgem all the time

True, but the 18z rgem is no better than the 18z ggem.

meteocentre

just don't tease the bear

yeah and they are usually sleet. In swfe-heavy years, I'm the sleet capitol of the world.

only longitude-wise, bro

Sorry bud, I'll try not to post anything that might scare you.

No, actually

Looks great for the Ohio River Valley

Well it kind of looks like during the fzra period for NE CT, it comes in a shorter burst of heavier precip than NW CT. So I'd guess accretion wouldn't be as bad even though qpf falling as fzra might be comparable.

winter still sucks here, that's my story and i'm sticking to it

It was sort of more north through like 66, and then slunk down