Windspeed
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Everything posted by Windspeed
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What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory?
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Oops. My bad. Thanks for the correction. Had Maria as an early October system in my head. No stretch at all there, more like just flat incorrect.
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If someone would have told me we'd end up with 25+ named storms and only two majors, I'd have laughed them off the forum. Yet that is now a real possibility.
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Well we got a CONUS intense landfall out of the way. There are inactive years here and there that have these (Andrew '92) albeit rare. But we've seemingly had everything this year except an Atlantic Cat 5. Those used to be rare, but since 2016, Octobers alone have given us three (Matthew, Maria and Michael). Wild all were 'M' storms. Mu anyone?
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We're in an amplified pattern right now so any GOM or W. Caribbean, regardless of CAG or easterly wave development would most likely turn into southerly or southwesterly flow depending on ECONUS trough and frontal placement the next few weeks. Now that being said, there might be a more zonal pattern re-emerge mid October that could allow for some western MDR development out of the ITCZ and be an ECARIB threat. Though the western extension of WAM is winding down, the MJO should be phasing favorably around that time. That would potentially still give us some action in the Antilles. Perhaps a few more central Atlantic fish/ACE generators and even another deep SW Caribbean system in November. This is getting into extreme long range. But though the Atlantic is dead this week, I think we'll have a busy stretch in October. ENSO continues negative and AMO is still favorable for bursts of activity. I'm going to say 4 more hurricanes, one of those being a major before the season closes in November. 23/8/2 right now with an ACE of 105. We finish around 30/12/3? ACE somewhere in the 130 to 140s range. Not as much ACE as I had considered in the preseason due to smaller number of majors, but obviously the number of storms this year has been insane regardless. Will that be enough to verify all the preseason forecasts for a hyperactive season? Based on number of storms, no debate. Based on landfalls? Still no debate. Based on ACE? Questionable. Definitely "active" but perhaps just shy of hyperactive?
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Perhaps a revision can be done in the coming year and they can formulate a better backup plan in the event we run out of names again. Unfortunately it's too late to avoid the issue this year. That being said.. Eggplant?.. Eggplant? [emoji533] Seriously? You're fired, Naso!
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Some folks reviewed the HURDAT2 data and apparently there had never been three seperate TCs form within a 24 hour period before. So that's a first.
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lol @ the long-range GFS... [emoji849]
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Pretty much anyone hitting up the tropical forum today...
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Looks like the MJO will transition to a brief suppressive regime next week as an unfavorable CCKW swings across the N. Atlantic Basin. However, that is followed by another enhancing CCKW leading into October. Therefore, things could get quiet briefly following Teddy and the potential GOM system followed by another uptick towards the end of the month. Of course it is important to remember that positive (red) MJO regimes are not as unfavorable during peak weeks as TCG can still occur in the Caribbean, GOM and MDR as overall surface pressures tend to have decreased versus mid-Summer months. Pockets of favorable upper 200 hPa vorticity can still be obtained over random areas, especially with lacking EPAC TC activity. In addition, the MDR has tended to moisten somewhat with a backdown in pressure heights and 700 hPa easterlies. So we could still see something pop up east of the Antilles as well.
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A low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic, 99L, is transitioning more warm core with time. It would of course be fitting for 2020 if a Subtropical Storm grabs the last seasonal name prior to the Greek alphabet. lol... Perhaps 90L can get its act together in short order today and snatch the name away. The race is on...
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ACE isn't the only standard though. People who only consider it to be are foolish. Landfalls are critical data. Cost is important data. Number of storms are critical data. However, ACE shouldn't be done away with as it is an important climatological tool for measuring and comparing basins. Also, it's a great data filter for finding the most active seasons. It's no coincidence that seasons with the highest ACE had numerous powerful TCs beyond just having a high total number of TCs. You also usually find some real long-tracking beasts as well.
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Well we should have some recon flights during peak since it will eventually be a land threat (Bermuda or possibly NE/NS, etc). You're probably meaning on the ground in situ though. I bet you had no love for Lorenzo. [emoji17]
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Teddy has a shot at Cat 5. It'll be moving over 29°C SSTs tomorrow within a divergent environment. Definitely going to be a Category 4 and most likely a high end one during its life cycle.
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ACE is now skyrocketing. We should be over 100 sometime next week.
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Hrmm...
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You got something better? That's the rub. Even the best model guidance is sometimes difficult in its usefulness. That's where good old fashioned synoptic-scale forecasting helps. And that can still be off. There's a reason those folks at the NHC are the cream of the crop. Yet they're still not perfect. Neither is the best modeling based on the most powerful super CPU clusters. Hopefully you can just afford some patience and let it play out / unfold.
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ECMWF ensemble consensus is still the best for tracking, period. Sure, they still miss. But there is a reason we still chew nails awaiting their rums.
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If that run were to verify, the hypothetical Caribbean/EGOM system would've been Teddy. The GFS does a weird monsoonal split and breaks off the upper axis first that becomes Sally. It then allows the southwestern extension to close off into Teddy and it gets captured by strong ridging / easterly flow. Sally merges with CATL troughing. Teddy drives into the CONUS. Meh...looks gimmicky and likely to not model that way in future op runs with any consistency.
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Four consecutive ENS runs with overwhelming support for a low latitude CV hurricane next week. Paulette and Rene both recurve. Paulette feels the WAR somewhat and recurves late. That may need to be watched for Bermuda. At any rate, the WAR is modeled with good ensemble support following exit and lift of the ECONUS shortwave. If the next AEW is as organized as modeled, it's going to have a shot at running the entirety of the MDR without a TUTT in place. There might be some backside upper influences of a stronger Paulette in the mid-range. However, with an EATL cutoff, most downstream upper 200 hPa flow would likely divert eastward. Simply put, next week may very well be prime time for a legitimate long-tracking major hurricane if it's going to be a reality this season. Additionally, the WPAC is entering a period of quiescence. Combining both quiet WPAC and EPAC basins, the N. Atlantic's upper tropospheric setup for the next 2-3 weeks likely supports several long-trackers. Additionally, the MJO is in a phase that is more supportive of eastern MDR development and would favor TCG becoming more frequent east of 50ºW. You do not need 200 hPa vorticity anomalies in the WATL if you already have established westward tracking TCs. Their anticyclones will take care of themselves barring negative TUTT/PV interaction. So as we progress through the next 2-3 weeks, tracking patterns are going to be key here. Where are the shortwaves versus ridges and what are their timings with potential TCs? We're going to have several recurves, no doubt. But if a few TCs form at low latitudes or time as a trough kicks out, I'd say the Antilles, Caribbean, Bahamas and SECONUS will have several threats by the time we enter October. Another thing to keep in mind is the pattern setup and MDR systems may last through mid-October. The past five years have seen later dates in MDR development versus climatological mean. Considering that we have a strengthening La Niña and positive AMO, this year may continue that trend.
