Go Kart Mozart

perhaps your best post ever?

At least it is conceivable that something good can come from that wave.

I am not clear on your vaccine analogy. So Dr. Salk and his team have settled on the "optimal mixture" for the vaccine (the operational). If 51 kids are given the Salk vaccine, and each kid receives a slightly perturbed mixture (an ensemble member), will those 51 kids do better, statistically, than the one kid receiving the optimal mixture? I suppose forecasting really can't be compared to vaccines anyway, as vaccination errors don't compound over time in the manner of prediction errors. I am assuming the benefit of ensembles is to smooth out the "compounding error chaos". I am sure they have value after X days...I just wonder if we are not prone to something like the Golden Mean Fallacy, where we overrate the ensembles by viewing the average answer as a good answer. I suspect Tip will chime in on this...if so, please keep it under 50,000 words.

So, you are teaching a math class with 51 knuckleheads and one bright student. You give them a tough problem. Is the mean answer of the 51 knuckleheads really going to better than the bright student's answer? Another way to phrase this....does statistical analysis really show that an ensemble mean is better than the operational, and if so, at what time range? I recall the pros on this site saying that four days-out is the magic cutoff....is that based on analysis mythology?

Holy cow, 1070 mb. The North American record is 1078.

1064 high in the arctic north of The Yukon. Get ready for some cold air down here.

Now I've been happy latelyThinking about the good things to comeAnd I believe it could beSomething good has begun I like the vibe as we move into January.

January! 2023.

LOL at this map. Is this what's called a meridional pattern?

Well that's hopeful. I like 76-77....bone dry and bitter cold. Let's start a thread.

RNA forever!

The satellite is impressive, even if NAM is not. If that Lake Superior feature were over...Indiana?

Can we lock in 06 GFS for Boxing Day II?

That cold front diving into the convergence cone off the Carolina's could be a big deal:

That's not spam. She really wants to meet you.

Are those your grandchildren?

I'll take this morning's GFS as for general evolution. The powder blizz for DC while we rain would be hilarious.

Is that an hallucination, or is eastern LI getting rocked right now?

Do they convert to centimeters for Canadian accums?

Hazey 2-4...feet?

Refresh the maps, if using Pivotal

You wouldn't remember it in Maine...it was all rain up there. The mets can correct me on this, but I remember an IVT or maybe a CF with a SE to NW orientation. I think Newport had 30"?

Yeah, but he got all jacked up on roids after he left the Red Sox.

The children's blizzard of 1888 in the Great Plains...people were getting knocked on their arses whenever they touched their wood stoves thanks to St. Elmo's Fire.

In Hamden? How much did you get?