TheDreamTraveler

Maybe we'll break our hurricane drought with this system

I have to remind myself that we still haven't had a single hurricane form even after we broke the record on September 11th. It's October 2nd now and no hurricanes in sight. Absolutely unbelievable to still be seeing this. We really might get through this entire season without a single cane.

This record breaking super el nino is definitely going to throw a wrench into forecasts I think but I am thinking it'll be AN as well for most of the winter. Still though all it takes is the perfect setup at the right time to completely smash us like what happened in January 2016 following the last super el nino. But I do wonder just how lucky we got with that storm since it basically didn't snow the rest of the winter besides that one storm.

I guess summer has one last hurrah on Thursday/Friday. Then after that we might have a night that gets into the 30's on Tuesday

8 named storms looks good on paper until you look at how abysmal the ACE is

I guess all the energy absent from the Atlantic has to go somewhere https://x.com/JaydonShawwx/status/2103657217673384075

Here's a great post from the Atlantic Hurricane Season thread about the current nor'easter. Post is 19 hours old now but still. Oh another thing too the center of the storm had convection firing around the center and some lightning earlier. Very interesting.

Stole this from the NYC thread but figured some might appreciate it here

This nor'easter sure is looking just a little tad subtropical imo

It's so weird how strong this noreaster is for September. It's so windy out it feels like it's another month and not September. I was also reading that the record breaking super el nino is slightly related to why we got a noreaster this strong this early in the season which is interesting but not surprising.

The CPAC gets a separate name list and *normally* strong hurricanes do not effect Hawaii or any land in that part of the ocean. I guess it's just a very bad coincidence we had a year where both lists had 2 similar names that just so happened to occur at the same exact time and also effect two landmasses at the same time as well

That's wild how much colder it got there than here even though I'm practically down the road from you lol. In Enola it got to 48.

How low can he go?

Looks like NHC keeps this just below hurricane status

Yeah it's been pouring hard here all night

Been getting a lot of good rains off and on all night

Next week is going to feel very fall with highs in the 60's and rain. I'm kind of looking forward to it honestly but I'm also one of those weird ones that like long cool rainy days

I was just updating myself on that area just now and NHC lowered it back down to 30% in the next 7 days lol. That's just how inhospitable the Atlantic's been this year. It's really crazy how hard it is for anything to form. I'd love at least one decent hurricane to track but maybe I'll get lucky with something in October hopefully if this one doesn't pan out. I think we're entering 5 days in a row now since September 11th when we beat the record for the latest forming hurricane in the satellite era and every day just keeps adding onto that record.

Every day is just another record broken for no hurricane formation which is just nutty honestly. Like normally when you beat records like this it's only maybe a few days but we're entering 5 days now since we broke the record back on September 11th. We do have that area of interest at 40% but I'm still not fully convinced it ends up developing into much of anything let alone a hurricane. But if it can take advantage of the good conditions that will be available in that small area of the Atlantic it could have a chance to spin up into something reasonable. Actually I was just checking that area of interest while writing this post just now and NHC went back down to 30% now lol

Finally some action...

First 40's of the summer for me tonight. Very excited for fall.

That's the interesting thing with the climate warming it might actually mean *less* Atlantic hurricanes forming overall in the future but the ones that do form tend to be a bit stronger than typical. There's still a lot of debate and research into the true overall effects but I do find that interesting to say the least. And yeah I could see some monster storm finding the perfect pocket to form and rapidly intensify in later in the season. But this El Nino is an anomaly all on its own too which is making it even harder to understand what other effects it's having on the atlantic hurricane season overall. We still have months more of warming in the Pacific despite us already surpassing the peak we had in 1997. Just given everything we're seeing I really would not be surprised if this is just how the rest of the season ends up looking with maybe one or two more stragglers forming at the end of September into October. I wouldn't even be surprised if we don't see a single hurricane now and I'm usually very optimistic most seasons.

Yeah the storms are disappearing as they get to central PA as is usual for the entire year. I just expect that now with any storm system I see lol

Spotted lanternflies are also playing a role in that too. My parents have a few trees in their front yards that these things love to swarm and feed on and its insane how much dew they deposit that ends up turning into mold and other tree infections if you don't take care of it right away. It really weakens the health of these trees to the point they'll die in a couple years eventually if there's no action taken.

This atlantic hurricane season has been so depressing this year lmao. It's the main weather season I look forward to every year above all else. I know some of you don't care but we're reaching a lot of record territories for the 2026 season. There's just been nothing to track and whatever has formed has barely lasted for more than a day. Today is the climatological peak of the season and this is what the basin has looked like for 2026 with no new storms in sight. Oh and the record for the latest forming hurricane during the satellite era was on September 11th in 2002 and 2013. We're poised to break that record easily tomorrow.