TheDreamTraveler

Actually kinda crazy how low the pressure is despite the winds only being around 100mph

Damn Erin looks like shit right now lol

I like how NHC has Erin moving WNW but the past few hours she's been going due west. That's without wobbling or stair stepping.

So a few weeks ago I was complaining about how I thought this being the most humid summer I can possibly remember. Well I came across this article from a few days ago basically detailing that a lot of states have had their most humid summer ever recorded with dew points 6 degrees higher than the 1951-2020 average. That's actually insane. https://www.wtnh.com/news/national/feel-sticky-this-summer-its-been-record-muggy-in-the-northeast/ "More than 70 million Americans sweated through the muggiest first two months of summer on record Parts of 27 states and Washington, D.C., had a record amount of days that meteorologists call uncomfortable — with average daily dew points of 65 degrees Fahrenheit or higher — in June and July, according to data derived from the Copernicus Climate Service. And that’s just the daily average. In much of the East, the mugginess kept rising to near tropical levels for a few humid hours. Philadelphia had 29 days, Washington had 27 days and Baltimore had 24 days where the highest dew point simmered to at least 75 degrees, which even the the weather service office in Tampa calls oppressive, according to weather service data. The summer of 2025 so far has had dew points that average at least 6 degrees higher than the 1951-2020 normals in Washington, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Columbus and St. Louis, the AP calculations show. The average June and July humidity for the entire country east of the Rockies rose to more than 66 degrees, higher than any year since measurements started in 1950. The area east of the Rockies has on average gained about 2.5 degrees in summer dew point since 1950, the AP analysis of Copernicus data shows. In the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and part of the 1990s, the eastern half of the country had an average dew point in the low 60s"

Starting to think there's probably no chance of this making landfall on the US east coast. It could still get close but landfall really looks unlikely now.

Erin ain't looking so hot. But honestly that may be good to allow it to move more westward over time if it stays extremely weak.

lmao I was not expecting the GFS to shift that far west in a single run. Glad to know it still has no idea what it's doing

Past few nights have been so nice. I wish summer had more days like that. I remember many nights like these as a kid in the 90's but I swear it's just unbearably hot and humid most nights now. My parents didn't have AC upstairs as a kid so we always slept with the house fan or downstairs depending on how hot it was.

Past few runs of the GFS seems hellbent on getting this close to the east coast as a powerful cane. Definitely worth watching but we are still very far out for this to be a legitimate threat yet. What really gets my interest is the fact the GFS keeps showing it in a similar spot at a similar strength the past few runs. If that keeps happening then it's definitely something to keep a close eye on.

Finally something worthwhile to track

They're not saying that we're going to get massive hurricanes just that the models are showing an active signal coming up which usually means we'll see some storms form somewhere. The models showing so many consistently big hurricanes is a good sign we're about to enter an active period for a bit.

Nasty dew point at 74. I really can't remember a summer that's been this humid this much. I haven't looked at raw data but I swear I don't remember the dew being so bad for so long.

We go through this every year pretty much when it hits July/Early August people just start calling the season cancelled because for some reason they expect storms to form in June and July lol. Season doesn't truly start until middle/late August but I guess you can't get it through peoples dense heads no matter how many times you explain to them. I guess that's why people end up believing other stupid things no matter how much proof you show them. Once they are decided on something it's very hard to change their perspective.

The storms curved and angled slightly over. Been pouring heavily here now for a while. I thought we were gonna miss it too earlier

Besides Irene and Sandy in 2011/2012 the east coast really hasn't been hit by anything major. There was the scare with Florence which was forecast to come in as a category 3 or 4 but then weakened dramatically before landfall. Then there was Joaquin in 2015 that almost pulled another Sandy. Then Matthew and Dorian coming right up to the east coast of Florida but turning at the last second. So many close call examples that it's amazing none of them struck at full power.

Would be wild if we got a December system this year. 2020 and 2021 didn't even have that. Quite rare to have anything develop. Last time we had anything develop was a subtropical storm in December during 2013's season which was a very quiet year overall. You then have to go back to 2007, 2005, 2004 and 2003 for December systems.

Some rain anywhere in the eastern US would be nice. The US had its driest October since 1895 in some places. Hopefully this thing recurves north.

lol 12z GFS has that hurricane in the Caribbean bottoming out to 915mb on Nov 16th. Definitely seems like there's a signal for something to develop though but that's still 6 days or so before it shows anything actually developing.

12z GFS is pretty wild. Has at least 4 systems develop through the entire run and possibly a 5th storm lol

It's possible we get to our S named storm in the next week or two. Maybe the models really weren't wrong about this potentially being hyperactive. Obviously depends if all 3 areas develop but still.

And now the global operational 0z GFS just drops the hurricane in the Caribbean completely lol

I thought so too. That Hazel graphic really shows how intense and unique of a storm it was. You rarely get a strong hurricane like that that late in the season barreling up the whole east coast with winds that extreme that far inland and north. Though it transitioning also helped the wind speeds too.

This season has been one of the weirdest ones I can think of. So many things have seemed out of sync. From the formation of Beryl in late June becoming the earliest cat 5 on record and the strongest storm that far east in the Atlantic that early in the season beating many records. And it went through the graveyard in early July as a category 5. Then things became very quiet. 8/20 through 9/23 which is the climatological peak of the season was the quietest stretch of ACE accumulation since 1994 which is to this day one of the quietest seasons recorded. Then everything that happened with the African monsoon ITCZ during August/September breaking a record for being so far north which was cutting off tropical waves so they could not develop. Now we're in October and suddenly the Atlantic thinks it's early September with three hurricanes spinning at once a few days ago with 2 at the same time both breaking records at the same time being the most powerful hurricanes that far east in October. And I guess we can include how bizarre Milton's track was. Either way it's been a very strange season for sure.

Seeing this thing still as a category 5 when we're this close to landfall is very concerning. I know it's going to weaken but it really is going to be a nail biter seeing how much it weakens. Intensity forecasts have always been the hardest thing about hurricanes. Forecasting track has gotten exceptionally well over the past 2 decades but intensity still has a lot to work on.

Rita was 895mb in the Gulf and is currently the strongest recorded for that area