cstrunk

I-35 corridor looks pretty good overall for really good rain. There will be winners and losers though. I look to be on the losing end in Longview, but we'll see how it plays out. Definitely looking forward to the "cooler" weather, either way.

Still holding these thoughts. We have some "cooler" temperatures Thurs/Fri in the low 90s/mid-upper 60s. Next week several rain chances start to really take shape. Still don't see any hope for below normal temps any time soon. But the rain will be very welcome.

I'm no expert, and it's now Sept 20th, but some changes seem finally be on the horizon. Highs are "only" in the low-90s next weekend. Models are starting to show real rain chances by the end of the month.

Tropical Storm Edouard has been spinning around in SE Texas since yesterday afternoon. Some radar rainfall estimate pixels approaching 16-18" now. The center has been drifting NNE for the past several hours. If it continues to head more north/east than the models were showing, I may end up getting some rain later today in Longview. Tyler has a better chance though. NWS SHV has mentioned the possibility of tornadoes but it's a pretty low chance, especially since we haven't really seen any signs of that yet.

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms in parts of N/NE Texas this evening, if the cap can break. If North Texas can see more sun today, there will be a higher chance of storms. Large hail would be the main threat, but all hazards would be possible. The HRRR shows storms firing over DFW around 6 pm. Higher threats exist farther northeast in Arkansas/Tennessee. Similar story tomorrow for parts of Central/East Texas. Higher severe threats farther east into southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

Nice cool weather yesterday and today with more rain to good chunks of the state. Should have a nice break for a few days to help dry out a bit before more chances mid-late next week.

Another, perhaps more significant, severe weather outbreak is on tap for much of north/northeast Texas today. Already a severe thunderstorm near Wichita Falls. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Very large/giant hail possible, in addition to strong wind and a few tornadoes, especially this afternoon into this evening.

Mid-day update from SPC edges slight risk a bit more south into NE TX/NW LA. HRRR very consistent with storms from Dallas eastward.

Slight risk today has been stretched SW into NE Texas. Last few runs of the HRRR is showing some storms late this afternoon/evening forming near Dallas and points east. There's also potential for isolated storms south/west. Hail/wind is probably the biggest threat, with isolated tornadoes still a possibility. Tomorrow will have another threat for severe weather with storms potentially initiating near Sherman and headed south/east from there.

I think we've had 4 tornado warnings in Longview this year. No touchdowns that I'm aware of. Last night sure was close to another as the rotation was headed towards Longview again but the storm weakened as it got here, thankfully. This evening will be interesting again for the same areas of SE OK down towards Paris/Texarkana. Not sure how far south storms will make it or if they'll be very strong by the time they reach Longview. There's a stationary boundary stretching from roughly Ardmore-Sherman-Tyler-Nacogdoches. That may help focus storms, we shall see.

This forum has really died out. Decent chance at some severe weather in NE TX this evening. Storms in SE OK should move into NE TX. May be more of a linear wind/hail threat, but isolated tornado threat with any cell that can form/stay isolated and ahead of the outflow boundary.

My Father-in-Law is without power in Henderson. Since 12:30 am.

Not much freezing rain in north Longview from this event. Less than 0.1". 1.5"-2" sleet. QPF way underperformed. Pretty much all models had a 2"+ bullseye in NE TX. Isolated areas may have verified but I'm guessing precip was overdone for many areas.

Yep quiet afternoon. Sleet has returned. I feel like it'll all be sleet. Maybe some flakes at daybreak. Temps in the mid-20's.

Heavy sleet in Longview right now at 31F.