Heisy

6z euro is warmer because the bowling ball is not in 50/50 esque location anymore. Look at it vs cmc for example. EPS also trended that way, more of a setup for NW now since confluence pattern isn’t ideal anymore (if it’s right)

I did a little comparison on all the models this morning. All the models have that bowing ball in a similar location day 3, but there’s a second shortwave that dives underneath it. Camp GFS, GFS Ai, Euro Ai have the bowing ball not reacting to that shortwave and it just meanders over SE Canada and blocks any attempt at our storm to come up the coast. Camp euro, cmc, Ukie phase that shortwave with the bowling ball and kick it east into our 50/50 location This interaction plays a big role on whether our storm can come up the coast or not. There’s other factors, but this is key imo

Technically this is an Archaumbault event with the NAO change. It argues for a stronger/farther N solution vs the Ai models. Euro Ai gives me the most pause for concern of course, but we’re still at range where we could maybe see some significant changes There’s also a world where the Ukie/cmc solutions are possible, similar 6z euro track but with the initial wave tracking farther N 00z Ukie was a MECS for interior to SNE 00z cmc parallel was like the Ukie but also got Philly in the game. Lots to parse. The pieces are there. We have 50/50, but the ULL helping reinforce the cold is a bowling ball and models are all over the place with it. Strong shortwave coming out of the pac, and finally x-factor to me is any northern stream piece that potentially tries to phase in last second. 6z eps comparison vs 00z, you can see that phase trying to happen with the energy over the lakes

Yea and there was more to come. There is this little ULL over SE Canada that is giving the models fits. Every model run keeps placing it in different locations every run. There is also now the question of a late phase. It would be extremely impactful if models go that way. Euro Ai being so far SE is a pause for concern still, and the OP is an outlier until we see the EPS, but not out of the ballgame yet

Interesting, last night cmc parallel is very close to this mornings 6z euro run. They attempt a late phase of the northern stream. It’s not a clean phase but enough to pull in moisture to the region

6z Euro is a good hit for you guys It trended towards the cmc idea of that northern stream maybe diving SE last second to phase with it. More was falling after this panel. It also has that little ULL in a perfect 50/50 spot

At least one positive, the Ai has the clipper for the 20th that the 12z euro had. Then again, this point of the season it’s big dog or nothing for me lol

18z euro OP would have went the way of the Ai, there’s no northern stream influence to help scoop it N. Without that it’s just a shortwave meandering underneath the ridge and it’ll glide ESE like the Ai models now showing.

CMC looks interesting, confluence parked over Ne and wave looks healthy

Gfs and icon thread that needle. It’s basically what the euro Ai had been advertising for multiple runs up until last night. Hopefully rest of 12z guidance improves as well.

Next period to keep an eye on. PV on our side should be some colder air to work with.

Man it’s freezing out. Absolutely brutal. Anyway, for the 15th range threat. Just sticking with the euro Ai since imo it’s the best model at this range. Seems to me if the energy comes out too early it gets crushed, too late and we lose confluence over the area and it’s rain for the city. We basically need the euro Ai progression, but with improved 50/50 setup. I’m confident there will be a storm, frozen? Eh

End of OP euro trended towards the Ai with delaying the wave. Would have been a vastly different solution vs its 12z run which was kind of on its own vs other guidance

Yea def, only thing I would take away is the delay in the shortwave vs the OPs, but this thing is still really far out.

I was focused on 95 SE hah

That would be painful, euro Ai and gfs Ai delay the wave so much we lose 50/50 influence. It almost cuts it off from the flow

NW Va beat down on the 18z euro Ai. That’s 10:1 too, wow

Just pointing this out. Been following both Ai models for days now. They’ve been locked in to this general progression for multiple runs now. Theres some minor differences each run of course, but two separate models 190+ hours out, remarkable similarities. Regardless of details, gotta wonder if the OPs will eventually end up with this look.

The cmc progression is likely the best hope for a snowstorm here. Like I mentioned in my last post it split off a lead wave which helped reinforce cold air before the main wave eventually came east. The 6z gfs wasn’t too far off from showing that as well. See gif below This is probably the best progression to root for.

I think this pattern is more volatile than normal. Dealing with -PNA pac energy. Every model handling it differently and you see the results from that happening. Last nights cmc split it in two and the lead wave helped reinforce HP behind it. AiGFS practically buries the wave. GFS brings it out, but the confluence is just a little bit too weak to lock in the cold air we need. I can go on and on. Sure, there’s a better chance of a non-snow outcome, but I have low confidence in any particular model solution attm.

Anyone see the 12z Ukie today? It snuck a wave under the tpv at 162-68 hours. Was a 6-10” event for us, but it ended at 168 so I wasn’t sure. Only reason I’m mentioning it is because the 18z gfs Ai now is focusing on that wave. There were also a bunch of eps Ai members blowing that wave up. Something to keep an eye on

12z cmc was a MECS in the making. Still at long range, just good to see

Just an op run. But this lead in actually looks pretty good, nice looking 50/50

It’s an ensemble mean, doesn’t guarantee anything, but the fact that it has that high of a mean signals an increased winter storm chance around 14-15th range

18z euro Ai has a cad event day 9-10