Heisy

I thought the 00z euro looked better at H5 than it actually produced at the surface.

Yeah Ai has had it multiple runs, however, last night it was farther NW. type of system where I’m okay with it being farther SE currently

It’s a really good setup, 1/20/2005 was number 1 analog this morning. Makes sense, clipper redeveloper. More confidence for 95 N&W for this type of setup, but we’ll see how the shortwave evolves as we get closer

Really not bad at all, curious what 18z euro/ai do this run

If that shortwave was more consolidated that would have been more AiGFS like. Not bad this range

#1 analog is 2005 event, the storm that happened before eagles beat falcons to get to superbowl

I think that was a different year here is 2005 snow map

Heh Feb 3-5 1995 in the top 5 day 6-10 analogs. We’ll see how it evolves, but it’s the next threat for sure Guess what #1 day 6-10 analog is? 1/22/2005

Thought the look on the models reminded me of Feb 3-4 1995, and what do you know, it’s on the top 5 day 6-10 analogs. I’m a sicko like that haha

With the ridge out west and confluence laid over SE Canada the main shortwave has no choice but to slowly dig

Respectfully disagree, the Feb 6th period is gaining a lot of traction over night. Euro Ai, ensemble, etc etc, shortwave gets trapped between ridge out west and some leftover confluence. Reminds me of Feb 4-5 95 for some reason

100%, that’s the next threat, end of euro op actually looked interesting. Reel it in Lucy

When is the met community as a whole going to care more about the Euro Ai vs the OP. This next event is another case study for it. Euro has been bouncing around run after run. It’s finally starting to get consistent, meanwhile euro AI has basically locked in as it usually does in this range outside minor ticks. It’s verifying better at H5, only caveat is its resolution gives it issues with QPF so you have to factor it in. Anyways, euro Ai has a nor’easter for the 6th The 00z OP run had snow down into The southern mid Atlantic for this one. End of 6z Op looks like it was about to brew something up. This one could have BL temp issues, need to get the low out of the lakes, but we’ll see…

Almost 18 members get us to 5-6”

Annoying off run Euro/eps runs keeping us alive

Fujiwhara for the win

It seems the last 48 hours the off run euro runs are west of the 12/00z. Not really sure why, but it’s been consistent like that

If the PNA ridge and tpv is like 150/200 miles west before it starts diving S this would have been 2016, 96 etc. absolutely brutal. Ain’t gonna lie though Sunday night and the 6z euro Ai/OP runs were some of the best in range fantasy runs in a while. Was fun for about 12 hours. We’ll have another threat in February. In fact I spoke to HM personally he’s thinking 2-3 more legit threats before end of year

Such a tight gradient on all the eps members etc because of how wound up the system is. I feel like we’d need a pretty large shift for this range to get the city in the goods, but I still think we can muster few inches if we get lucky

https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta89-14.pdf

18z GFS vs 18z euro AI. Really close honestly Gfs probably begins negatively tilting slightly earlier

The GFS uses some of its initialization data from the prior runs 6hr forecast. When I saw the 6z gfs I had a feeling 12z run would do what it did. It takes a few cycles to purge itself. I feel like the cmc ensemble mean is a very realistic outcome, but eps is highly concerning. Anyway, going forward the next time period to keep an eye on is the 5th which grew some legs on the Ai & some other ensemble means today.

Thing is the northern stream is sitting in S Canada right now. It isn’t like this is energy coming off the PAC and poorly sampled. Not saying it can’t happen, but I don’t expect any type of giant shifts personally. I hope I’m wrong though.

So absolutely frustrating that literally all we needed was that TPV to stretch slightly farther W and we probably see a blizzard from VA to SNE. Still, rooting on folks in SE