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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. rjvanals
    UKIE is good looking on Pivotal
  2. rjvanals
    I’m down on this system since if we get any snow it’ll help push the confluence to far south screwing up both much higher upside chances next week
  3. rjvanals
    We're not going to have a good handle of next week until we see what happens with the Friday system. I'd like to see that form way offshore and then take my chances with next week
  4. rjvanals
    Looking at the 500 charts the Friday system organizes closer to shore on both the CMC/GFS compared to the EURO/ICON which then helps push the confluence further south on Monday screwing it up
  5. rjvanals
    CMC loses its punch at our doorstep
  6. rjvanals
    The little disturbance that could give us a coating of snow on Friday gets a bit to strong offshore and helps shred the Monday system
  7. rjvanals
    I'll take it
  8. rjvanals
    GFS gives us some snow Friday night
  9. rjvanals
    ICON looks solid
  10. rjvanals
    10 inches at DCA
  11. rjvanals
    euro looks solid
  12. rjvanals
    GEFS does show a bit of a signal for this
  13. rjvanals
    GEFS ensembles don’t show any real OV low signal anymore for 1/6
  14. rjvanals
    Any solution showing 4 inches of snow in New Orleans and accumulating snow in Tallahassee for 1/9 shouldn’t be viewed as a likely outcome
  15. rjvanals
    GFS having snow in the Gulf of Mexico probably means it’s out to lunch
  16. rjvanals
    Yeah I’m mentally preparing myself for the disappointment of screwing up a bad pattern
  17. rjvanals
    It’s going to suck in a week when we have no snow and none on the horizon due to suppression
  18. rjvanals
    Good news is that s/w isn't showing up in any of the other guidance and without it we'd have had a good result
  19. rjvanals
    The shortwave over MN is screwing things up imo
  20. rjvanals
    Before worrying about storms 10 days out remember the GFS is still showing fairly big swings for the 1/1 rainstorm which will have a downstream effect
  21. rjvanals
    Absolutely this is a good pattern just need to cash in and keep expectations in check
  22. rjvanals
    Good news is Syracuse looks to be in a productive lake effect pattern 1/8-1/11 with a general NW flow
  23. rjvanals
    One concern I have is the ensembles aren't showing a ton of chances for P>4" in the next 15 days liking south of us for 1/7 and a Miller B signal for 1/9.
  24. rjvanals
    GFS is on it's own for the borderline threat on 1/2 but both the GFS and Euro show threats on 1/7 and 1/9 so hopefully some quality tracking coming up
  25. rjvanals
    It’s not even Christmas so not throwing in the towel but it seems like we can’t get the good pattern inside 10 (or even better 7) days the past few winters so some ptsd
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