I actually think its the forecast snowfall amounts in the grids from each forecast office. Which had their last major update about 3 am. But in this case you should either create your own graphic for this situation or do something else to explain the situation because these are going to be drastically different in an hour or two
GFS finally fully capitulated, down to less than an inch here on all models. Was looking back and at the 12z run two days ago the GFS had a 15" jackpot in green bay. Not the best winter for our hometown model.
Eh we've been pretty lucky overall this winter with a few overperformers and deep snowcover for about the past month. Also my mind is switching to spring mode so by the end of this month I'm rooting for warmer weather and thunderstorms vs cold and snow.
if Madison gets 14” I’ll eat a hat. But actually this is looking good for a high advisory low end warning criteria snow here. Will be interesting to see if any other models folllow the ukmet in shutting us out
This is a complicated pattern and there are numerous ways this can evolve. Depending on how strong the first and second waves are and the timing between the two. 6z GFS is probably the upper limit here with the second wave coming in further north and deepening the original low substantially. I also wouldn’t mind a better hit further south since we’ve gotten our fair share of snow here and the weenies down south could use a nice storm
A bit off topic but this vortex isn’t going anywhere any time soon. A good analog is 1997 and the stratospheric final warming didn’t occur until April 30.