madwx

was wild

Euro in agreement with cold starting Friday after the EOW system with the core of the coldest temps on Sunday thru Tuesday with some slight moderation after that. Some relevant record mins and low maxes for the period at MSN 5 -21 1936 -8 1895 6 -19 1977 -5 1875 7 -21 1875 -2 1893 8 -22 1899 -7 1875 9 -28 1899 -15 1899 10 -25 1899 -5 1899 11 -22 1885 -6 1899 Notable that all those 1899 dates are during the great Arctic outbreak where ice floes came out of the mouth of the Mississippi and New Orleans got down to their all time record of 6.

GFS continues to show very cold air for about a week starting on Friday, with the brunt of the coldest air in the Sun-Tue timeframe. After next week most long range models show the core of the coldest air shifting slightly NW to the Northern Plains, but it will still easily reach this region on the backside of any trough.

luckily as of right now the snow pack in Northern Wisconsin and Minnesota is below climo norms which would temper some river flooding but plenty of time for that to change

looking more and more likely we will get a solid advisory level snow with this. If the low tracks south of here, there's no chance we'll have enough warm air to keep it as rain

GFS bringing in the cold air much earlier. Has subzero temps here by Friday.

This thing has staying power. Probably going to have quite the snow melt/high river season in March.

January finished with: Average temp of 21.9(+2.4 of 1991-2020) Precip of 1.27"(-0.19" of 1991-2020) Snowfall of 17.0"(+3.3" of 1991-2020)

looks like we'll have a significant amount of sun the first half of this week, and any brutal cold next week will also have sunshine so turning out to be a much brighter first half of the month than January had

You give me hope that I can still be a troll well into my parenting years

All signals are there for serious cold to be in place from the 7-14 of February. Some signals that a piece of the TPV will come rotating through the area

Death, taxes and the GFS showing insane cold in the extended

Estimating about 5” total here but really tough to measure with all the drifts. Sun peeking out a bit. May get a few more snow showers the rest of the day

3.8" as of 6 AM at MSN. Very light snow for the past couple hours here, lots of blowing and drifting

6.8” at ORD so far, 6.0 at RFD, 7.4” at MDW, 9.5” at LOT

1.6 inches at the MSN airport as of 9 pm

Still coming down but can’t get a large flake size. Wind is howling out there which will make measuring futile

Really coming down out there with a strong wind. Flake size still small though

Pouring small flakes here. Already about a quarter inch on sidewalks

some drizzle started about 20 mins ago and switched pretty quickly to pixie dust. maybe a few larger flakes at times.] Moderate snow up to the Dane County line. Should be here within the hour

It's not really a dryness thing here, its more just a slower progression northward of the forcing for precip. Getting reports of drizzle on the SW side of Madison so we just need the forcing to arrive(probably in an hour or so) and well be golden.

still dry here. Precip start time is going to be at least a couple hours behind what most models had

The trend of a mild first week, significant storm around the 4-7 and then deep cold for about a week before moderating for the second half of the month seems to still be holding for now. Looking like a majority of the area will have a deep snowpack before the cold plunge.

Y’all are getting snow in Chicago already

will be interesting if this can push us up to 15" snow depth. Only 23 years in history have we had a 15" snow depth in the winter, most recently 2010-2011