madwx

This is probably the reason all the offices are going with such high totals and watches

NAM went from 11.1" to 4.7" here between the 12z and 18z run

the text for the watch is 7-12" for MSN. That's just taking the GFS straight and disregarding any other guidance

Lol MKX going WSW for most of the CWA. Not sure I would have done that

Trending toward DAB to 2” here. Will just have to see if the GFS falls in line

my second post call is still in play. We will see what the euro shows

if Madison gets 14” I’ll eat a hat. But actually this is looking good for a high advisory low end warning criteria snow here. Will be interesting to see if any other models folllow the ukmet in shutting us out

Yeah late February 2017 was very impressive in terms of widespread warmth. Like a mini March 2012

I’ve never seen a more misleading dark blue on a temp scale

Yeah the upper level evolution of the Euro and some of its ensembles that I’ve looked at seem to make more physical sense than what the gfs is showing

This is a complicated pattern and there are numerous ways this can evolve. Depending on how strong the first and second waves are and the timing between the two. 6z GFS is probably the upper limit here with the second wave coming in further north and deepening the original low substantially. I also wouldn’t mind a better hit further south since we’ve gotten our fair share of snow here and the weenies down south could use a nice storm

A bit off topic but this vortex isn’t going anywhere any time soon. A good analog is 1997 and the stratospheric final warming didn’t occur until April 30.

Will enjoy the cirrostratus canopy

Here’s the max depth of the past 13 or so winters. Can really see the hot streak we had from 2007-2011

In Dec 2012 the depth got to 11", deepest last year was 9" in early February

13” snow depth in Madison this morning. Deepest snow cover since GHD1

big flakes here. looks like the last push before the mixed precipitation starts to move in

Accumulating pretty nicely out there. About 2". Roads vary between snow covered and slushy/wet. Looks like a couple more hours before warmer air moves in and rates drop off and we switch to drizzle/rain

In addition we have a chance at a record low temp tomorrow morning. The record low for the 14th is a relatively mild -13 which is only 2 degrees below the point forecast.

While it looks certain to go below 0 tonight in Madison, with no other below 0 temps on the horizon and time running out quickly for them to occur there is another record we could be trying to attain or tie, least number of below zero days in a year. Currently the record holder is 1877-78 with 1 but I am always skeptical of temperature records back then since measurements were only taken 3 times a day. A more modern record is 1997-98 with 2 days. Unfortunately it looks like it will go below 0 before midnight, which means we will get hit with 2 days below 0, even though it's occurring for only 1 night.

arctic front blasting through here now and blowing all the snow around. got about an inch beforehand

18z NAMs trending downward with snow here. First and final call of 1.2" (with some bonus borderline brief whiteout conditions with the arctic front)

12z GFS with a slight trend downward in precip/snowfall amounts. It looks like the initial WAA snow will miss us in Wisconsin so we'll have to rely on the wrap around deformation snow as the northern stream wave phases

6” here with a little bit more back end snow to come

Madison hasn't had a temp below 0 yet. The lowest so far is 0 set on January 19th. The standing record for warmest minimum temp of a winter so far is -4 set in 1930-31. Will be interesting to see how low we can go at the end of the week. Current point has -1.