madwx

bought 2 bottles on February 23. Probably the best purchase i made this year

how about we make some sacrifices for the next year but don't shut everything down. both the 'shut everything down' and the 'screw it im gonna live my life like i used to' points of view are unrealistic and will cause the most damage. if we have continued social distancing, good hygeine measures, markedly increased antibody testing, no large gatherings like sporting events and concerts and shorter periods of stricter methods if any areas become hotspots then we don't have to choose from the false dichotomy that you've presented.

May 15 with a slow phase in after that, then maintaining a baseline of social distancing for around next year. Any time we can buy to get better treatments/therapeutics more widely available is essential. We've done a pretty good job flattening this first wave but we need to be prepared for waves to come again later, especially if we relax social distancing too much.

looking pretty good already. you can also see some lake effect clouds off the Madison chain of lakes, Lake Winnebago and even the Mississippi River

yeah unfortunately fast food is one of the only options for lower income people who are working extended hours during this time, and agreed on alcohol withdrawal. I don't think people realize how many americans are physically dependent on alcohol

looking like no snow except for some snow showers possible during the week

been a couple flurry storms so far, 40 mph + gusty winds precede each one and blow the neighbors lawn furniture around a bit. strongest one of the day about to hit here

Snow showers imminent. Winds getting very gusty outside

cumulus already developing quickly across southern Wisconsin, this is gonna be a fun ride today

yeah the HRRR is hitting the rain/snow shower pretty hard throughout the upper midwest. Wonder if we could get some graupel with these storms

And of course the Supreme Court blocked the order so the election is on again

yeah not sure why Northern Illinois was basically completely removed. HREF probs look pretty good for storms in the area and there will be a front moving through at peak heating.

Gov. Evers issued an executive order pushing the Wisconsin election back to June 9th. Great news as I was worried that in person voting tomorrow would cause a great deal of spread in the state

at least the models are staying true to their form in this crazy work. usually a middle ground between the two is the way to go, maybe a slight lean toward the HRRR

the 0z 3km NAM is a step in the right direction, slowing down the wave and having slightly more realistic boundary layer heating. The WRFs seem to be convecting over Southern Wisconsin/Iowa in the late afternoon. Slightly intrigued by the setup. Think there could be some severe in Wisconsin, especially if the wave stays a bit slower.

I’m pretty sure this is a fake chart. Here is a screenshot from cdc.gov with the total pneumonia and influenza deaths

its also because most people with mild to moderate symptoms are not going to get tested a second time to see if they are negative for the virus so theres no easy way to add them to the recovered statistic

Now that the decade of March is over with it's time to look forward to the eon of April. Looks to be starting off on a warming trend for the region with storminess becoming more common from Friday through much of next week.

We’re about 15 posts away from an Alex Jones video getting posted in here

yeah even the GFS extended has flipped and does not look bad at all

it went from 1285 with 12 deaths yesterday to 1535 and 16 deaths today

Yeah Madison is 10.9" above average since July 1 but 0.7" below average since December 1st. Only 2.9" between Dec 1 and Jan 10, Basically the first half of met winter had almost no snow.

pretty impressive to see tornadoes right up against Lake Michigan that early in the season. Definitely have positive feelings about this severe season. the jet has been ripping along so far and if continues into spring that will help promote increased shear and less meridional flow which will lead to more turning with height. Have seen 1990 thrown around as an analog and seeing some similarities in the March pattern(1990 also feature a double spike of extremely high AO values in February). Have also seen 1991, 2007 and a few other years thrown around that would portend average to above average tornado risk this spring. Personally I'll be out chasing the last 10 days of may so hoping for an active stretch then.

No in fact people have tried to argue the opposite, that solar minimums lead to more high latitude blocking and therefore PV disruptions.

Luckily we have a few (possibly) silver linings: 1) its not guaranteed yet that a SSW will occur, only half of the GEFS have a warming occurring in the next 2 weeks 2) Not all SSW are the same and depending on how the vortex gets split/the alignment of the blocking we may not get brutal cold 3) By the second half of May, when prime storm chase season is occurring, the weather patterns are not really connected to any SSW occurring in Feb/Mar