jojo762

Not a whole lot of model agreement or high predictability, but mid/late next week was pretty interesting on the 12z Euro, especially Thursday. Obviously slightly veered SFC winds aren’t exactly preferred in the plains, but it’s a start. P.S. Highly recommend getting Pivotal Weather Premium, at least for severe season; it’s not that expensive, and being able to get high quality ECMWF soundings is fantastic.

Not looking like too amazing of a setup right now. Obs show upper 70s temperatures with ~50 d/Tds across SW OK, and it’s not much better to the west in Texas. Likewise, most models show 60 to low 60s dewpoints advecting into the area by go time. Seems like a relatively high probability that a highly photogenic, high-based supercell goes up somewhere in W TX/SW OK this afternoon/evening. Giant hail will be the main risk with any isolated supercell before a large MCS forms along the cold front late tonight; might be a small non-zero risk of a tornado, which would also probably be photogenic thanks to high LCLs if one were to occur. FWIW, forecast soundings do indicate massive CINH across most of W TX/SW OK, so I’m not exactly sure how any convection is going to explode or even sustain.

And if this were the case... I would say that that time frame would end up being equal chances for both... maybe slightly below normal chances? Not sure yet, because it’s so far out that it is almost pointless to try to predict severe weather given the various intricacies of a severe weather forecast. Bleak forecast for storms, or even just tranquil weather the next week.

Ironically Pineville is where I turned around sometime after 7ish to hop on I-49 for the three hours back home. Make that two awful chases in the SE KS/NE OK/SW MO area in back to back weeks... See everybody in a week or two when things maybe start to turn around on the plains..

Interesting day to say the least. Chased two supercells that developed near Welch OK. First produced a huge wall cloud but didn’t have much rotation and must’ve gotten ^slightly^ north of the boundary shortly after as the wall cloudy quickly dissipated, and storm became elevated. The second supercell developed as soon as the original storm went elevated... this one had an interesting initial life-cycle, as it quickly produced a gust-front and was seemingly outflow dominant before re-acquiring surface-based status. This storm looked impressive on radar but never really acquired any notable low-level meso... chased it to just past Anderson, MO, but gave up because it wasn’t doing much and the road network/trees get unbearable in far SW MO. Baseball to Softball-sized hail per the SVR warning along with the ESE movement made this one not very fun to chase.

Sitting in Miami OK right now, ample N/S/E/W road options... might meander down to Vinita soon. Tons of CAPE and SRH today, but a slight cap probably remains in place and LLVL lapse rates are bleh. Might have a storm go ballistic INVOF the boundary.

SPC upgraded to 10% hatched TOR risk across SE KS/NE OK/SW MO. Ingredients appear to be coming together for a potentially significant day across this region.

00z RAP verbatim show a high-end parameter space developing across SE KS/NE OK by as early as 20z tomorrow. CAMs provide a mixed bag of results for tomorrow, most which do not exactly show a high-end setup like the RAP -- especially with regard to convective evolution during the morning/afternoon and into the evening... but we'll have to see. 00z NAM also shows a higher-end parameter space developing, but with more capping in the afternoon prior to 00z... Somewhat concerned about lackluster low-level lapse rates, but we'll see how that evolves.

Monday is looking like a classic boom or bust triple point day... should be noted that there is a pretty wide disparity between the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC and the GFS/NAM though... GFS and NAM show what would be a pretty upper-crust supercell environment (with some caveats/possible weak points).

So maybe some severe activity with an isolated tornado threat somewhere in the plains this weekend into early next week. Might get a day with some more concentrated tornado potential (looking at you Monday), but veered LLVL winds and capping could be an issue. LLVL winds being weak or veered and 700/850mb temps being quite warm will be an issue every one of the days more likely than not. Beyond that it’s looking like a large ridge, or at least higher-than-normal 500mb heights will setup across most of the western CONUS and into the plains — some uncertainty as to how this ends up exactly, but probably looking at a lull with some beautiful/warmer weather in the mid to extended period.

FWIW, there seems to be quite a bit of volatility in the 200+ hr range recently... Shifting from ridge fest to trough fest back to ridge fest.

Operational models really did a 180 overnight on the large western CONUS ridge in the mid to long-term... Might be able to anticipate several chaseable/watchable plains severe days in 7 to 10 days.

I don’t know what it is, but there’s been a lot of late-range teaser GFS hours lately. Sigh. CFS as well... For whatever reason, doesn’t seem to be able to hone in on any actual trend toward more activity; there’s a constant wind shield wiper from run to run with regard to the long-range, not that that is necessarily unusual.

If you like LOTS of chaseable plains days, the long-range 12z GFS was your type of run... Not much else can be said besides that it shows a large, lumbering trough with day after day of southwest flow in the extended fairy-tale range atop a very moist PBL.

I misspoke earlier, the Seneca tornado actually had a 134mph bin as it hit the city. Unreal.

Briefly had a -122mph bin as it crosses over the city... at 3:30 in the morning, good god.

Today definitely ended up being a tornado outbreak, it may not have happened the way we anticipated a few days ago, but its going to end up with dozens of tornadoes when all is said and done, with several significant high-end tornadoes as well.

Gotta hope it was just a quick spin up and is no longer on the ground..

TDS as well...

Velocity is the strongest its been with this tornado... But judging by the motion, it looks like it might/should occlude quickly.

Several interesting looking cells across SW MS and NE LA, albeit they're all fairly small.

About to cross or crossing Interstate 59...

This has been on the ground for likely 60+ miles.

PDS warned now with large and extremely dangerous wording...

NROT on GR2A of 3.74. Good god.