jojo762

Looking forward in front of this storm, looks like several decently sized communities along I-59 north of Hattiesburg...

CC drop w/ reflectivity debris ball on the storm east of McComb.

Looks like there was briefly a 63dbz debris ball on reflectivity for the Brooksville MS tornado.

Large tornado in progress on Macon cell per SN.

Rotation seems to be ramping up rather quickly on the McComb, MS cell. Probably our best shot at a truly discrete tornadic supercell.

Broyles... ha. In other news, McComb MS supercell starting to look better... Just went TOR warned.

I'm honestly somewhat surprised they kept the 15% MDT risk for tornadoes. Just do not foresee the tornado threat ramping up, especially from a supercell perspective. Guess there could be dozens of QLCS tornadoes later, but i'm not sure if that warrants a moderate risk for tornadoes.

Honestly I doubt we’re gonna get any discrete supercells... Sure XYZ parameters are off the charts but good god LLVL LRs are so bad. 5-6C/km across southern Mississippi, I just don’t think that’s going to cut the mustard... and with super saturated profiles, I don’t think that’s going to be changing. Everything is so messy too.

Given the incredible degree of 0-1km SRH, I’m surprised we aren’t seeing more “bird wing” looking mini cells as is typical with days like this.

Interested to see if it starts to turn right sometime soon’ish... otherwise it seems that it would crash into the blob of rain.

Lightning has really picked up on the Cell west of Crystal Springs, in front of the line... uh oh.

Suppose given CAM solutions/uncertainties the only way we were going to get a high risk was if we were in the midst of numerous discrete cells... perhaps at 20z.

Tornado after tornado after tornado with the morning QLCS across Louisiana... don’t recall many (Any?) people addressing this potential over the last few days.

Not surprising... most of that small “town” is on the northern side of the dot on radarscope, and that’s exactly where the circulation went.

Given the environment today, ANYTHING that becomes surface-based is *probably* going to rotate and *probably* produce tornadoes. It’s just what happens when moderate CAPE overlaps with ESRH on the order of 500m^2/s^2... Now the big question is, will we get discrete convection or just clustery stuff like this with embedded intense circulations + lots of WAA junk.

Ummm... all I can say is yikes. Image speaks for itself.

Perplexing scenario for tomorrow per 00z CAMs. Really high-end environment, yet not really many storms being convected in the models despite what feels like an obvious situation for lots of storms. Best of luck to whomever is doing the 06z Day one outlook.

Everyone's favorite dooms day model, the HRRR, added to the complexity of the forecast with the 18z run. I know the HRRR has a reputation for running hot when it comes to blowing up convection, but it *really* blows up lots of storms throughout the afternoon in most of Mississippi and Alabama, should be noted that this does stand relatively in contrast with the 12z CAMs. With this run there is a possibility that there could be tornadoes given the impressive low-level wind field, but honestly looks more like a heavy rain and damaging wind threat to me than a tornado threat. Some potential for supercells to form behind the blobs of rain, or within, but do not think that they'd be very intense storms.

I've just never seen them do it for such an anticipated event, especially for the D2 outlook. I mean, I suppose not enough changed between the 00z CAMs and the 12z CAMs to talk about much more, i'm just surprised that the forecaster would not want to provide their own forecast.

The discussion text is literally the same from the 06z update, word for word, while the graphics are different. I suspect this is an error, and would anticipate them fixing this soon.

Seems to be an error of some sort with the 1730z update. It updated at 12:35pm on the COD SPC website, but the discussion text is exactly the same as the 06z D2 update.

SPC has surprised some of us in the past when we were convinced that there would be no changes. A lot of it henges on who the forecaster writing the outlook is... but I doubt this is one of those instances where they surprise us and choose to upgrade, unless they feel that the solutions showing one or two long-tracking significant supercells across the risk area warrants an upgrade.

12z CAMs generally showed less blobs and less elevated WAA convection, but also don’t necessarily show a solution that would scream tornado outbreak either. Moderate risk will probably be maintained at 1730z, pretty cut and dry right now to me that CAM solutions wouldn’t support a high risk. FWIW, most of them do like the idea of a long-tracking supercell or two.. probably on the tail end of the initial east Texas convection. Seems to me right now that the most probably type of day would be 4/24/10, where we essentially got one monster, memorable supercell (See Tallulah-Yazoo city-Durant tornado) plus another one that was decent.

Surprised nobody mentioned that the significant tornado ingredients SREF map that was posted was valid for 10pm...

00z CAMs were a mixed bag of results... Here is a run down, with some of my own thoughts on what each solution would result in. HRW WRF-NSSL Storms fire early in Eastern Texas, partially associated with a long-lived complex, they continue east-northeastward over the threat are with a mixed bag of storm modes, numerous UH tracks associated with this initially activity as it traverses Louisiana and Mississippi. Numerous other supercells fire in the main threat area. This solution likely yields a tornado outbreak of some extent. HRW NMMB Storms fire early in Eastern Texas, traverse Louisiana and into the main threat area... WAA activity explodes across the warm sector, still some hints of severe supercells embedded within this activity, but overall mutes most of the threat across Mississippi/Alabama... Meanwhile numerous discrete cells pop across Arkansas, possibly yielding a more localized tornado outbreak there. In relation to the WAA activity, from my own experience of using the NMMB, it does seem to frequently overconvect. HRW WRF-ARW Probably the scariest of the bunch... Storms fire early in Eastern Texas and remain mostly discrete/semi-discrete as they scream east-northeastward, numerous other discrete supercells fire in the open warm sector across large parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama. This solution definitely produces a big-time tornado outbreak. NAM NEST Similar to every other solution, storms fire very early in the period over Eastern Texas and traverse Louisiana, essentially becoming a big blob by the time they reach Mississippi. Throughout the afternoon WAA convection is persistent across Mississippi and Alabama, with the chance for embedded supercells. By late afternoon several supercells are firing, embedded within clusters, in Arkansas with other cells trying to get going further down the front and in the open warm sector in Mississippi. Sunday night features what would likely be a dangerous QLCS over Tennessee. Unsure what this type of scenario would result in, but best guess is several tornadoes, and a ton of severe wind reports. Imagine SPC will stick with a MDT risk for the 06z Day 2 SWO. 00z CAMs didn't do much to help squash the uncertainties that have been spoken about at length on twitter, this board, etc... If SPC takes credence in the idea of WAA convection persisting in the warm sector, we certainly will not get a high risk in a couple hours... If they do not put much faith in that solution, then we would probably see a high risk given the preponderance of evidence from every other model.