jojo762

Wow. Talk about repositioning after obs analysis. Good job! Think I’m going to position in the DDC area for today, many similarities to 5/17 for SW KS. Hope a storm or two can manage to go up. Overall setup would seem to favor isolated supercells exploding near the diffuse dryline across SW KS as subtle height falls and a 50+kt H5 jet streak eject into the highly moist/unstable, and weakly capped warm sector. High risk, high reward setup for sure. Storms may not form, but if one or two does, it’ll probably be a discrete supercell capable of all severe hazards, owing to strong instability/shear combo and a strengthening low-level jet.

While it is not a perfect setup by any means... it would appear that Tuesday is setting up to be the grand finale to this week and a half run of plains severe chances. Discrete modes appear to be highly favored, and early initiation does not seem to be super likely attm with an EML in place east of the sharpening dryline (largely because tomorrow is not progged to have massive amounts of convection like the last few days have). Low-level wind profiles could be a little better imo, but they will be more than adequate enough to get the job done. Numerous discrete/semi-discrete supercells appear likely east of the dryline from NEB/IA into KS and possibly Oklahoma by mid-late afternoon Tuesday as a substantial 70kt H5 wave ejects into the warm sector, all severe hazards are likely, possibly including all significant severe hazards. Should be noted that details will probably change to some degree in regard to magnitude and location of threats.

Not sure why they went with a MDT risk really, just as I wasn’t sure why they went with a 10% TOR yesterday. Environment doesn’t seem to imply a moderate risk type setup to me, despite that it is (much) more impressive than yesterday. 12z DDC RAOB depicted a fairly weak cap, but downstream soundings (such as 12z AMA) seem to indicate a more pronounced EML will advect into the area. Most CAMs seem to indicate at least a couple/few hours with a few discrete/semi-discrete storms. Anything that is discrete today could certainly produce with the environment at hand... But if convection evolution is anything close to what it was yesterday, there would be a minimal tornado risk. Have to work today, so taking the day off from chasing. Might go to western KS on Monday and hope something goes up but not sure, as minimal capping will exist and the jet streak begins to impinge on the dryline, any storm along the dryline tomorrow could produce all severe hazards. Better chase prospects coming on Tuesday.

Indeed... El Reno tornado earlier had a 100mph bin at 2.5KFT... this Jenks tornado had a 105mph bin at ~0.3KFT.

Most of the CAMs have tended to grow upscale very fast the last week or so with about every setup and have mostly been incorrect. Paying more attention to background environment really, which by 00Z should be fairly impressive. Southwest KS gonna southwest KS, as it always does...

Have been looking at Saturday for several days now. CAMs and HRRR point to what could be significant day across SW KS. Area INVOF the triple point will likely have volatile environment capable of all severe hazards, including significant tornadoes. Probably going out with some met students to near DDC then reevaluate satellite/obs from there.

Appears to have been a couple/few frames where they may have been a satellite tornado.

Storm has *really* reorganized and rotation has picked up dramatically again... likely tornado will track into Clark and Comanche Co. KS toward protection and Coldwater.

Supercell north of Pampa appears it’ll need a TOR warning soon. EDIT: supercells southwest of LUB as well.

Don’t like being “that guy” but that sagging frontal boundary (that will be reinforced by outflow from the storms to its north) is probably going to dramatically lower the tornado threat today... there will probably be a sweet spot somewhere south of the warm front where a supercell could do something big, but current connective trends cast doubt on that. Supercells currently developing INVOF Lubbock will likely have best chance later on.

Spotters say it is still on the ground.

Two tornadoes on ground near Golden City as storm cycled.

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR AREAS NEAR ORONOGO... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR WESTERN JASPER COUNTY... At 818 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Oronogo, or near Joplin, moving northeast at 25 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for areas near Oronogo. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Northern Joplin... Carthage... Webb City... Carl Junction... Oronogo... Carterville... Airport Drive... Alba... Purcell... Carytown... Brooklyn Heights...

TDS on this storm.

Supercell in Craig Co. OK is really, really wrapping up on reflectivity. Rotation also strengthening.

Supercell in Cherokee Co. KS is ramping up as well.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES... At 614 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 3 miles northwest of Owasso, moving northeast at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations in or near the path include... Owasso... Skiatook... Collinsville... Sperry... Oologah... Talala... Vera... Turley...

Tornado warning needed soon for Kingfisher Co. storm. Rotation has strengthened significantly.

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Wagoner County in northeastern Oklahoma... Northwestern Muskogee County in east central Oklahoma... Northeastern Okmulgee County in northeastern Oklahoma... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 604 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Morris, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations in or near the path include... Okmulgee... Wagoner... Coweta... Haskell... Morris... Okay... Porter... Taft... Tullahassee... Bald Hill... Redbird... Jamesville... Choska...

Supercell in Kingfisher appears to be organizing.

Evolution of the Okmulgee supercell on reflectivity and velocity is beautiful. Classic cyclic tornadic supercell.

Believe current tornado is going to occlude as new circulation and hook-echo is developing to its east.

Practically every storm initiating in NE OK has a bird wing shape... Violent motion continues on tornado near Oklmulgee.

I’d believe it. Very tight couplet on KTLX.

Supercell near Okemah, OK is clearly the most impressive right now... storms forming near/north of Tulsa will *definitely* be worth watching.