jojo762

Eh... Storm is still organizing. Rotation is still kind of broad. It's having to fight off a lot of junkvection.

Supercell south of McComb, MS has started to deviate and detach from the convection to its north. Probably seeing the storm of the day evolve. Obs in front of this storm exhibit local backing with a mix of southeast, south, and south-southwest surface winds observed downstream.

KMOB VWP has improved some, hodograph is still kinda junky looking but it now exhibits >250m^2/s^2 0-1KM SRH... Imagine the LLJ is probably starting to get cranking. Might increase the tornado potential some, but it's not going to increase dramatically in areas with SW SFC winds.

The difference between actual obs from VWPs and model (in this case RAP) forecasts is remarkable..

Some of those more discrete cells popping up in far SW MS are going to be worth watching if they can stay organized... Looks like they already might have some mid-level rotation.

**Current** profiles are awful. As I stated in the next sentence, a more substantial threat could evolve, but it won't if surface winds do not back more, or more cellular elements start to develop along the warm front. *Current* profiles are more along the lines of a 5% day. Very meh, again, currently. Even with that newer linear segment in Louisiana, the good majority of that has pushed out an OFB.

Not trying to be over dramatic, but those type of profiles are more consistent with a 5% TOR day, if that... Tornado threat is very minimal in the open warm-sector, probably a bit higher on the warm front, but even then its not significantly higher -- especially with the gross, mostly sub-severe mess ongoing. Still the chance for a big QLCS threat I suppose, but a more discrete threat probably wont exist for at least the next hour or so...

It's kinda of odd, I don't recall any guidance yesterday or the day before showing any hint of low-level or mid-level profiles being this awful.

Imagine (hoping) that the hodographs INVOF the warm front are better than they are in the open warm-sector, because oof... KPOE: KLIX: KMOB:

Of course the only Tornado warned cell in the MDT risk area is in a radar hole from hell.

Yawn fest so far... for the exact reason as the 00z NSSL-WRF from last night. Just a grungy mess, LLVL wind profile is clearly turning nearly as much as it was on Easter. Likewise still have hours to go, so things could (will) change to some degree.

Despite the classic reflectivity presentation, velocity signatures are pretty unimpressive -- especially with the cell only being <40 miles from HGX and at a beam height of ~2.7KFT.

HGX storm just went TOR warned

Cell north of Bay City, TX (west of HGX) starting to acquire rotation and a ZDR-arc. Hmm...

Houston could have a problem with that discrete cell across Wharton Co. TX if it can get better organized, all by itself and HGX VWP indicates 0-3km SRH on the order of >450m^2/s^2.

Don't think I have ever seen a Tornado Watch have "high" probabilities for five of the six categories and not be PDS. Interesting. Winds are looking veered to nearly southwest, or at least south-southwest, across most of Southern MS and AL. As of now, most of the tornado threat would appear to be tied to storms INVOF the warm front where winds will be locally backed. As referenced in the BMX AFD this morning, I am not entirely sure how much of a tornado threat will exist across southern MS/AL if surface winds are going to remain out of the southwest.

Probably gonna need a TOR warning sometime soon on that Shelby Co Texas storm if the rotation strengthens

Looks like some clearing is trying to happen north of the outflow boundary across southern Alabama & Mississippi; this might be enough to force the effective warm front further north. As referenced in the BMX tweet though, its not going to be easy with that high pressure in Georgia, in addition to the sharp nature of the front with only upper 50s temperatures on the cool side of the boundary.

Dang, they put the 1630Z outlook out 25 minutes early.. Rarity.

Lots and lots of messy stuff so far (not unexpected exactly)... that convection off the coast of Louisiana is a bit concerning in regard to the upstream effects it’ll have wrt SFC moisture and LRs (instability).

I thought the same thing. Vividly remembering Broyles writing style for High Risk outlooks in the past, and its like hmm... The part about the corridor of higher potential screams 30% TOR probs, but then its not evident in the actual probabilities (FWIW, this geographical area pretty much hugged the 00z HRRR solution). Likewise, pick your model for tomorrow and stick with it... HRRR, et. al vs. WRF-NSSL, et. al. Also, does anyone know in God's green earth why the HRRR keeps insisting on mixing-out surface moisture in S AL/MS tomorrow afternoon? Its the Deep south with unimpeded moisture transport, and not friggin western Kansas on a MRGL/SLGT dryline day.

https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Given the reference of the greatest threat for a "cluster of tornadoes" in southeast MS to South-central AL, the idea that a high-risk was drawn up seems plausible -- given everything that was being said on twitter. It's all meaningless anyways, the atmosphere does not care what any of us think or say.

MDT Risk issued. Broyles was in fact the forecaster.

Clicked on a few random point forecast soundings in the warm-sector on the Ukie, and good lord... Feels too far out to talk about specifics, but that'd be ugly. Good thing there isn't too much agreement on what will happen -- for now.