jojo762

Evergy, who serves the eastern half of Kansas/western half of Missouri, announced they would be instituting rolling black outs in their coverage zone as well... As per SPP guidelines... Going to be an interesting next couple days for many.

Man, most 00z models really missed on this fairly significant amount of wrap around snow in KS/MO/OK, im not exactly sure how much it'll amount to as far as accumulation, but this band is quite large and really nothing besides yesterday's 12z NAM had picked up on this (the 18z/00z backed off). Current hi-res models appear to be doing anywhere from modest to very poor in handling it. Hi-res models generally stink with snow, sometimes they can sniff out subtle things before globals but ouch.

Not really winter related but the 00z GFS shows a potentially interesting severe setup across Kansas and Oklahoma by the 26th... lol classic.

I'm really liking how the 12z NAM has been doing so far... Gives me some confidence in its aggressive solution for the wrap-around band tomorrow.

HRRR is doing horrible this morning, I see... really off in Kansas at least, and does not do a particularly good job with the snow in W OK either. Other 12z CAMs (NSSL-WRF, WRF-ARW NMMB), and especially the 12z NAM are doing better. Even so, most CAMs besides the NAM are underestimating the breadth and intensity of a lot of the bands.

Going to be awfully interesting 00z run of the ECMWF..

00z GFS QPF... Using 16:1 to 20:1 ratios yields 6-8"+ for many in Oklahoma.

Agreed, i'm mostly not a huge fan of using CAMs for winter forecasting, but still not a great 00z suite.

00z CAMs are quite disheartening for Oklahoma...

LES bands usually run 20:1 to 50:1... (huge variation, obviously) so that sounds about right, especially given the super cold conditions. Impressive nonetheless.

Still possibly a few inches short though for much of Oklahoma, and parts of Kansas/Missouri.

Do not believe this has been posted yet, but OUN's AFD this afternoon did an excellent job of summarizing the snow potential for many of us in the forum.

Does not seem like there was too much of an appreciable change to the end result. Still impressive snow totals area-wide, maybe slightly less bullish for some -- definitely less widespread 0.5" QPF than yesterday's runs.

The QPF that the NBM is shooting out is completely perplexing, as is the snow map. No answers for either, really. NBM is typically modestly reliable, given that it is a blend -- sorta like buying SPY instead of picking stocks, its hard'ish to beat the market. haha

Almost certainly... as usual, this 84 hour NAM forecast can probably go straight into the trash.

00z NBM snow map continues to be a compromise between the more bullish ECMWF/GFS and the more bearish GEM. However, something appears to be awry with the aggregate SLRs in the model, as the QPF field would indicate a much more bullish snow solution -- more in line with the GFS/Euro, especially for the western half of Oklahoma. Interestingly there is a rather steep gradient in the QPF output on the NBM that essentially bifurcates Oklahoma and Kansas -- not exactly buying that.

Anyone else finding themselves waiting for this storm to totally fall apart?

Everyone is right that under normal circumstances Kuchera SLRs do fairly poor, and almost always overestimate snowfall. But we are talking about 15:1 to potentially 25:1 SLRs for most people here basing off current temp forecasts. In this situation I don't think the Kuchera snowfall numbers are signifcantly off, espeically on Pivotal weather -- WxBell seems a hair higher for whatever reason. For anyone with a distrust of the Kuchera snow outputs, just manually multiply QPFs by 15 or 20 or 25 to give you a rough idea of what we could be looking at (its pretty similar to what is being shown).

Not looking forward to AWFUL roads again. The roads on Sunday/Monday were brutal across most of the metro, even in Johnson County which typically does a great job plowing and keeping roads clear.

For posterity thru 240hrs.

Thankfully the Canadian is mostly on an island of its own wrt a weaker less amplified wave... Not to say that it couldn't end up winning on this system vs the other globals, but just seems unlikely. Seems like the 84hr NAM is more like the Euro/GFS, as well...

Looks like 12z GFS was a bit of a snowfall upgrade for most compared to the 06z, but still a tad less than 00z. Getting close to that period in model land where it is hard for them to be off astronomically. Meteorology is often a humbling science. In this case, the difference between 6" of snow and over a foot of snow comes down to nebulous details of isobars several thousands of feet up in the atmosphere, in addition to other mostly nuanced factors.

Somehow even more impressive than the GFS... Geez.

00z UKMET was a good mix of the CMC vs. GFS/Euro. More QPF than the Canadian, but less than the GFS/Euro. UKMET maxes out at ~0.5in of QPF over a small portion of OK whereas GFS/Euro have 0.5-0.9in QPF over a much larger area. Looks like 00z Euro is coming in now...Out to hour 54 as I type.

Only an hour and a half or less to go!