jojo762
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Everything posted by jojo762
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Very clearly the violent tornado we did not see last week. Some chance the southern BMX tornado earlier could have produced that level of damage at some point as well.
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CC drop to .215 at 8KFT. Holy moly.
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Beam is at 8KFT but g2g is over 200mph. That is one intense meso...
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Cell north of Smithville, MS is going to need a warning probably...
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Discussion god, Roger Edwards was also the lead forecaster on the 13Z outlook.
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I get the HRRR, etc. is still quite aggressive for later, but if I am being entirely honest most of this convection downstream of the main threat area is quite messy...
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Most of the reason the velocity sig was so relatively unimpressive was due to beam blockage by terrain -- I think.
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TDS over a mile wild now... Reflectivity debris ball approaching a mile wide, as well.
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Still a 60dbz debris ball in progress -- unsurprisingly.
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Large, intense wedge in progress on Spann's stream.
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Reflectivity debris ball just bombed out again... ):
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Not sure as to if they are in session right now, but Oak Mountain High School is directly in the path...
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Rotation is rapidly strengthening on the newly TOR warned cell SE of Macon, MS.
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TDS has ramped back up again...
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Inflow is ramping up downstream of the circulation. An indication that this could be about to tighten up.
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Velocity signature has died down a touch again... Just like last time. There's something interesting happening at the storm-scale level that is causing these quick ups, but relative inability to sustain, wonder what it is?
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~140mph g2g now...
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For reference, most CAMs do not get super active from a supercell/tornado perspective until 21-00z.
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That supercell is very concerning... BWER, ZDR arc... The whole nine yards.
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New convection getting going near Baton Rouge could be of interest over the next few hours. Satellite and radar obs tell me those Tuscaloosa storms are certainly trying... Also JAN just hit 75/71.
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That 12z HRW FV3 run is something... Hoping something like that does not happen today. Verbatim that would be a super-outbreak. No other CAMs are quite as aggressive with supercells up into Tennessee or really even that far south in MS, so it's definitely an outlier.
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How so? It pretty much shows the same thing the HRRR, ARW, NMMB, etc. do.
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I feel like some of this is just noise related to the ongoing effects of the scattered convection this morning? Looks like most obs in the true warm-sector are either southerly or slightly southeasterly. Something to watch, for sure.
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I'm not exactly sure how you post the gif since the file is so large, but the 12z HRRR was about as bad you can get today. Appears to have a good grasp on the on-going scattered WAA convection as well.
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Edwards went all in with the 13z discussion. One of the strongest worded discussions you will ever see folks. Very bad day ahead.
