jojo762

Just seems silly given the uncertainties with regard to convective evolution and storm mode. Tornadoes WILL happen, but there’s not a well defined corridor imo where the conditional probability would warrant a 30% sig-tor contour. Seems like it would be issued as a result of recency bias due to last Sunday.

Good lord, again? Can’t wait to see all the pissed off people when/if they don’t go high risk. Wx twitter has been a disaster lately. edit: allegedly was stated on the NWS chat, but nobody has actually verified this...

Dig the live discussion idea, I always enjoy listening to others thoughts on a setup more than just reading. Some type of initial chase target discussion would be nifty too, in addition to a "technical" discussion.

00z Guidance is in fairly good agreement on a QLCS traversing the MDT risk area, what CAMs are not in good agreement on is WHEN this happens and IF there will be discrete convection in the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours. 4KNAM, HRRR, and the HRW WRF-ARW present what is probably the high-end potential of this setup. All three models to varying degrees develop discrete/semi-discrete convection *somewhere* in the broad warm sector. Whereas the WRF-NSSL and HRW NMMB present a lesser day with regard to discrete warm sector development. WRF-NSSL presents what is probably the most likely failure mode tomorrow with LOTS of junky WAA convection developing across large parts of MS/AL in the afternoon... Bottomline is, as was the case Easter Sunday, CAMs have not provided a clear picture on what is going to happen. Personally lean to something mildly similar to last Sunday with regard to convective evolution, just with likely (many?) less tornadoes. Unlike with most setups, there is not a clearly defined area that has higher tornado potential (maybe southern Mississippi??), but rather a fairly expansive area with conditionally higher-end potential.

I don’t know what it is, but there’s been a lot of late-range teaser GFS hours lately. Sigh. CFS as well... For whatever reason, doesn’t seem to be able to hone in on any actual trend toward more activity; there’s a constant wind shield wiper from run to run with regard to the long-range, not that that is necessarily unusual.

*any surface-based storms would be spinning. It was only last week where we had plenty of storms, not all rotated (Because they were elevated junk), but a lot did — and those that did were surface-based, even if they were linear/clusters.

Pretty saturated thermo profile all the way up to ~600mb... geez. Any storm would be pretty soupy... But the impressive LLVL (0-3km) CAPE, coinciding with that sickle-shaped hodograph is concerning.

SPC goes with 10% hatched TOR, 30% hatched wind, and 30% hatched hail at 06z. Fairly tame/nondescript discussion compared to what has been discussed on social media and on here, but given all the various uncertainties it makes sense.

I probably should've clarified this as supercell tornado potential... Keyword being potential, last sunday's "potential" (for multiple long-tracking supercell tors) was hampered significantly by storm mode, low-level lapse rates, and WAA convection; that being sad, the two long-track sigtors in S MS provided an example of the upper-end tornado strength potential for Easter. Something similar to last Sunday is that CINH will not increase markedly (or really at all) well after dark, signaling the potential yet again for nighttime QLCS tornadoes.

If you like LOTS of chaseable plains days, the long-range 12z GFS was your type of run... Not much else can be said besides that it shows a large, lumbering trough with day after day of southwest flow in the extended fairy-tale range atop a very moist PBL.

Per 12z NAM, a large severe weather outbreak appears to be evolving over much the of the southeastern states... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging winds, and large hail will all be likely. 0-1KM SRH on the order of 200-300m^2/s^2 will be prominent across most of the warm sector, atop 50-70kt effective shear, and unlike last week, instability will not be much of an issue with 2000-3000J/KG CAPE at any parcel of your choosing. Something, to me, that points to possibly greater tornado potential than last sunday is that 0-3km lapse rates are going to be much more impressive with 6-7C/km in forecast soundings across the region. Storm mode could be an issue, again though... Along with the potential for blobs of WAA precipitation INVOF of the warm front. Also a good possibility that the warm front barely makes it more than a few counties from the coast (especially in AL/MS), OR that late morning convection pushes the effective warm front further south via outflow... This would spatial confine the tornado threat to a much smaller area than the NAM would indicate. Altogether, given various uncertainties with regard to extent of late morning warm sector convection, and northward extent of the higher theta-e air, it looks like a 10% sig tor type day, with the possibility of a MDT 15% if lesser detrimental late morning convection and coincident northward extent of warm front becomes more clear.

I misspoke earlier, the Seneca tornado actually had a 134mph bin as it hit the city. Unreal.

Briefly had a -122mph bin as it crosses over the city... at 3:30 in the morning, good god.

Today definitely ended up being a tornado outbreak, it may not have happened the way we anticipated a few days ago, but its going to end up with dozens of tornadoes when all is said and done, with several significant high-end tornadoes as well.

Gotta hope it was just a quick spin up and is no longer on the ground..

TDS as well...

Velocity is the strongest its been with this tornado... But judging by the motion, it looks like it might/should occlude quickly.

Several interesting looking cells across SW MS and NE LA, albeit they're all fairly small.

About to cross or crossing Interstate 59...

This has been on the ground for likely 60+ miles.

PDS warned now with large and extremely dangerous wording...

NROT on GR2A of 3.74. Good god.

224mph GTG shear......

That debris ball on reflectivity is over 5kft high...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN MARION...SOUTHERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN COVINGTON...NORTHWESTERN LAMAR AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES... At 350 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Tilton, or 11 miles north of Kokomo, moving northeast at 45 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for locations in the warned area. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.