frostfern

Here it just went from virga and flurries to pouring snow. I think the dewpoint jumped up 10 degrees in 20 minutes. Went from 16 degrees to 26 degrees. It's a plate-dominant snow with mostly smaller flakes, so not accumulating super fast. Definitely reducing visibility though, especially since the wind is picking up.

Well, the snow finally started reaching the ground here. Had a solid 2 hours of virga and flurries.

Something I've noticed is that the ratio can depend as much on wind and crystal structure as temperature. Dendrite-dominate lake effect that falls straight down in light wind can be much higher ratio at 30 degrees than wind-blown plate-dominant synoptic snows at 27 degrees. I have seen 14:1 ratio with massive aggregate flakes even with a temperature of 30, provided there isn't a lot of wind and the depth is only a few inches. Of course, once you get a depth of more than 4 inches, even dendrite-dominant large-aggregate snowpack will compress quickly to a 10:1 ratio if the temperature is anywhere near freezing. It's usually under 4 inch snowfalls that can have a lot of variability based on crystal structure and wind. Once you get a lot of depth there's more compression due to weight and so the ratio's become more purely temperature dependent.

Still dealing with "heavy virga" overhead here. Getting some pixie flurries with composite 25 dbz overhead.

Thunder-sleet seems to be a more common phenomenon. Had quite a lot of lighting with ice storms in Feb 2019.

Have to live somewhere with a north-facing hill then. Weird how it often makes a difference even after dark.

LOL. Since when do we care about accumulation on salted roads. I assume most of us are not the age where we are praying to get days off school.

Had a virga band sitting overhead all afternoon here. Mix of virga and filtered sunshine.

It's definitely dry here at 28/18. Was hoping to add at least a little to the snowpack. It looks like the backside deformation zone will be closer to you later tonight into tomorrow morning. Here the front end is all we're going to get as the upper low is forecast to fizzle as the energy transfers to the mid-atlantic. I'll be surprised if I eek 2 inches from this. You'll probably do a little better as you'll at least have a decaying deformation band overhead for a little bit of time.

Hopefully adiabatic cooling can force the line back south if the lift intensifies.

There is a lot of low-level dryness. Areas closer to the lake seem to be overcoming the virga onset quicker.

The front end is 100% virga here so far. There's been some radar returns aloft for a while now but the low level dryness is eating it all on the way down. Not that I'm expecting more than 1-3" here.

I can skip any repeat of the February 2019 ice-mageddon. Did a number on my poor trees. Just give me snow damnit.

Hoping we finally get into a classic clipper train with arctic intrusions after the rainstorm on the 4th. It's been a long time. Lake ice on Lake Michigan is still minimal so enhancement looks good.

It's been remarkably boring. Maybe set a record for the amount of non-sticking 35 degree snow lol.

It's the same thing a lot of places this year. Good totals in the mountains but not much elsewhere due to marginal boundary layer coldness. The Adirondacks got dumped pretty good too.

Well, it looks like it will at least be less of a snooze-fest than the winter so far. It looks more like a roller-coaster-ride than a winter lock-in though.

The problem with only looking at deaths to estimate the true infection rate is it ignores changes in behavior. In general older people are being more cautious. It's mainly 20 and 30 somethings going to bars and parties. These are the main super-spreading type events. In Lansing close to 100 cases were linked to a single freaking bar!!! While the initial infected are mostly mild cases involving young people, when the amount of community spread reaches a certain threshold, older people will be involved again and death rates will climb again. Many vulnerable people still have to work and shop and they will come in contact with careless spreaders. Also not that not all non-deadly cases are "mild". Even people in their 20s who never required hospitalization say it was the worst illness in their life and nobody even knows how long certain problems last. Many people still have symptoms after 2 months!!! Even people who were never hospitalized!!! Many people never know they had it, but others become ill for a protracted period of time. It isn't a brief illness like the flu.

The sad thing is some places in the world have managed to keep numbers low without hanging a threat of destitution on millions. The barrier to management in the US is ideological.

You better believe lots of people will place blame and not have a lot of sympathy for the selfish.

Could also load up on Lysol. Take a long ass needle and inject it into the lungs as a preventive measure.

If people were willing to fight a virus like they fight a war against an invading army things would be different. Worship of individualism and capitalism is the undoing of the US. Nice for the people who can afford to stock shit and hide in bunkers. People who've been living paycheck to paycheck will come for your ass regardless.

The downward trend in Michigan is over :(.

I wonder how much time spent in re-circulating AC air contributes to spread. I the north people open their windows and get fresh air. Arizona and Texas mid-summer is the other cabin fever season. Similar for Florida with the humidity if you're not right on the beach where you might be able to catch a breeze.

What is "mild" anyways? I had one of the worst fevers in my life back in early March, but since I was only bedridden for 3 days and never felt so bad I might die if I don't go to the hospital I couldn't get tested. For COVID-19 it wasn't that bad, but I'm having a lot of trouble believing it was something else because I'm 40 and haven't had influenza since childhood. The symptoms were either influenza or a short COVID-19 case. A positive antibody test would make me feel better. It's still worth it even if false positives are possible. Whatever it was my wife got it exactly a week after me. Both my parents were exposed to us before I realized it might not have been influenza, so I was nervous for a while. My father has heart disease.