frostfern

I got about 2" last night IMBY. For once I-94 got the screw-zone instead of I-96.

The real ridge sticks to the plains most of the time the last decade or so it seems. At least in July and August.

Fairly impressive local rainfall in GRR with this MCV. “warm advection wing” band of convection has been parked overhead for a while now.

It's destabilizing pretty good behind the MCS wake over WI extending now over Lake MI.

The best lightning was with the small cluster ahead of the bow. There were quite a few positive CGs estimating about 2 miles to my SW. The big shelf that rolled in from the NW didn’t have much other than soft IC rumble and moderate rain. It wasn’t surface based. I see the winds did penetrate to the surface some areas though.

Stable surface layer saved me. The cell / cluster that formed out ahead of the bow meant business though. Continuous thunder with booming positive CGs going off like bombs off to my SW. I got a pretty big gust out of the south too. I was waiting for the main show to hit from the NW, but the shelf surged over with little fanfare. Stable surface layer definitely saved MBY this time, though still got a big branch down due to tree rot.

It was the same here until yesterday, and then this morning. Thankfully it wasn’t quite as bad as expected due to the overnight stable layer. Oddly, a cell that formed out ahead of the bow produced a severe gust out of the south (estimating around 60 mph) that took down a huge branch right on the house. Locust tree has major rot going on in the lower branches, so stuff was just waiting to come down. The main rear inflow jet stayed aloft at MBY though. I saw the shelf race overhead from the north right after that initial cell moved east, but hardly any wind at the surface.

I got an unforecasted quality garden variety boomer last night at 1 am. 0.5" of rain. Grass still looking some brown but slowly clawing out of the flash mini-drought.

Figures rain all misses south. Ready 2 drought indeed.

Same thing here. Cells popped up 10 miles southeast. Goose egg.

Ready 2 drought.

Bad timing and lake suppression here again. 30% POP forecast usually means 0% coverage here. Really need one of those stalled out warm fronts with nocturnal convection to get any rain here.

The power flickered. Gusts around 50 here. The lightning is IC dominant though. Soft rumbling.

Very dark shelf cloud. Could be some strong gusts.

It was a good one, though I was half asleep. Could have used a little more rain than what I got but the thunder was nice and loud.

If the system on Sunday is far enough east I might chase. The problem is storms often don't get into Indiana until after dark. East central Illinois is easier to get to than northwest Illinois because I can go south around Chicago.

I don’t know what the definition of “garden variety” is. I just want a non-severe storm in the mature stage with real downpours and frequent thunder cracks for once as opposed to decaying scraps and light stratiform. Michigan is being Michigan though.

I don’t know what the speed was here but it was strong for this time of year (outside of a thunderstorm). The cold front that came through during the morning sounded like a November gale, but with late spring warmth. Weird system.

Spring 2015 was awful. I remember there were flakes falling here around the middle of May when foliage was like 75% open.

Ponding issues are bigger here if it rains hard in March or April. I have had my lawn puddle seep into the basement before, but its always March or April. By May it seems like the grass just sucks it up and grows a foot. It might just be that the thin layer of muddy clay over the mostly sandy soil gets more porous as soon as it gets warmer.

The “homes wiped clean” doesn’t seem like a reliable indicator of wind speed to me. There are probably other details that determine where debris gets piled up vs scoured away. It probably was EF5, but damage is already so complete at the high end of EF4 it’s hard to differentiate. Beyond no walls left standing its kind of fuzzy what else to look for. Weird stuff like picking pavement off the ground might not be apparent everywhere.

It seems the whole system trended stronger and more north.

Don’t really want severe IMBY either, but a 50 dbz cell overhead with some CGs would sure be nice.

Miss NW .

That severe watch was such a bust. I think the dewpoints mixed out south of I-96. The line held together better north of the front. The steep mid-level lapse rates and higher deepoints are way west.