frostfern

Spoke too soon. Feeling yet another miss south.

Finally a flat-topped ridge pattern with stalled warm front potential north of I-80.

Yea. It’s hard to know the exact cause. I notice in Michigan just 300 feet of elevation will favor one area over another, but those microclimate effects are not as noticeable during organized severe outbreaks as they are with garden variety stuff.

Lake Huron shadow. But you deserve a weenie tag from Texas Man for complaining about climatology.

Its gone now. No idea if it was actually anything.

Something trying to form. No warning yet though.

Looking ominous.

Flint area going to get crushed with straight line winds and supercell mergers.

Getting that supercell look.

That notch looks interesting.

I think the best chance of rotation is when the line interacts with any lake breezes later in the afternoon. Problem is the the low level wind is strong so it would probably be over the water. Otherwise the 0-3 km is kinda unidirectional. Thats the only problem though. CAPE and overall shear are impressive.

Getting the old skip over again.

There was a 5 minute torrential downpour with a few pea-sized pingers mixed in around 2am last night. Not much in the way of CG lightning though. Just a few flashes and soft rumbles.

How about we lock you outside with no access to AC or heating for a few days and see which is more survivable. I'll pick 40 every single time if it's not wet. Wetness complicates the situation slightly as choosing between hypothermia and dehydration / heat stroke is a tough one, but you can at least dress for cold and wet. My honest criteria is more complicated. The worst is really anything between 32 and 50. If it were up to me I'd skip the months with average temperatures in that range. I'll maybe appreciate a sunny day in the upper 40s in late February or early March if the snow is all melted anyways.

It's baaaaaack.

I miss heat and storms with good lightning. Its lush again, but still an uninteresting summer up here and the long range is disappointing again.

Its gone for now, but could cycle back. Watching that southern one too.

That northern couplet is real. Small rain-wrapped tornado.

I really think it will hold together or even build more south. It’s only 9:30 PM. These things typically die off in the early morning hours, and it will teach you before then.

I no longer have the energy to chase at night after dark. If I had someone else cover some of the driving it might be doable. Just too exhaused these days. I really just want a nice big loud cracking and thumping storm IMBY, not wind and tornadoes. There’s an occasional flash and rumble, but nothing frequent. Same as previous July storms IMBY this year. Mostly just heavy rainers.

There’s no way that line is going to miss you and it will have lightning. I would chase if it wasn’t so late. Drought is past over up here but really no light show at all. Just plain hard rain.

Surface based instability isn’t as important as 0-1km shear for IMO. As long as SBCAPE isn’t zero, slightly elevated instability just north of a weak boundary is enough. Lots of sun and deep mixing directly overhead creates more CAPE, but it makes the 0-1 km shear more unidirectional too.

Another stratiform snooze fest with next to no lightning.

That story never changes.