weathafella

I’m not a met. But to answer your question nothing was ever accurate at d7. In fact, the original gfs had the short range AVN that went out to 72 hours and the longer range MRF to d10 which was (and still is) ultra lala land. Cmc went to d6 mainly available on the shitty graphics environment Canada. The euro was run once daily (12z) with plots in 24 hour increments. And it wasn’t available until around 7pm. Some of the mets had better access but we would wait for unisys output to d6. Later d7. Few had access to eps so one of the mets would describe it but were not allowed to post it. Accuracy through d4/5 is better vs 15+ years ago but there’s so much availability and so much trust that everyone presumes the models sucked. I remember pd2. The euro had the idea but the track was way off until d4 when it locked in. Same for all the biggies.

It’s also highlighting the change from the previous run. The look is actually nice for us.

Iowa the moralist today. Hint-the weather I root for has no effect on verification.

For the better

GWDLT

I’m smelling a snowy Christmas. Euro has trended away from the torch.

They most assuredly did. I used to see them back in the 90s.

Neither Mike. Go to bed typically between 2-3 an get up about 8 hours later. Getting closer to the real pattern change!

The qpf output in Boston was surprisingly prolific. 0.9 and it rained pretty hard last night. I can see now those that were able to stay colder did well. I hit 40 but it was that mild for a long time until it dropped back towards this morning. Still 38 when I went upstairs around 3AM.

The ensembles all finally neutralize the western trof giving us better chances once we get past this week...maybe one more push of RNA. and then in the last days of December it may seem like winter....

Did you know that Saturday and Sunday 8-14 progs have no human input?

Snowy Christmas Day on gfs.

Brattleboro is a nice place but that area is probably the least snowiest place in NNE.

Euro looks interesting at 90 hours

33 and rain. Need the dry slot so I can get some of my walking errands done.

Fortunately she left around 10am-encountered some snow in NH but otherwise dry.

Yikes! Glad he went. Hopefully will be better longer term post surgery!

What happened? Hopefully your dad is ok.

So glad our daughter managed to get up and drive down from VT before it got treacherous!

Well a week out with lots of warmth lurking just to our south and west I am less certain.

I wouldn’t count on the cold part.

Same. Cold nasty rain now-32 but I don’t see icicles..lol

Definitely more amped 78 vs 84 on 12z.

Over to sleet. Down to 32.

Snow increasing in intensity again. 33.